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Don't be fooled, this is not a bull market signal
BTC active addresses have reached 980,000, the highest since December 2024. Retail investors see this data and get excited, thinking new money is coming in
But the reality is—Coldcard has collapsed, and everyone is moving out
The hardware wallet, recognized in the community as "the safest," has a random number generation vulnerability. Attackers can calculate private keys if they know the device ID and clock value
Since July 30, over 7,300 addresses have been scanned, 1,596 BTC lost, worth over $100 million. At least 15 attackers are operating simultaneously
The chain is completely blown up, about 890,000 BTC transferred within a week, even wallets dormant for 12.7 years were awakened, with 500 BTC moved overnight
In short, the 980,000 active addresses are driven by panic, not liquidity
Retail investors think a bull market is coming, but it's actually a large-scale money migration 😶#Storage stocks plunge after earnings, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
🔥Storage stocks collectively fell after earnings reports, is the AI memory bull market coming to an end?
Just saw this topic, honestly it struck a chord. Recently, the storage chip sector has indeed fallen quite badly. SK Hynix has halved from its peak, SanDisk also plunged after its earnings report, dragging the entire semiconductor sector down.
But are their earnings bad? Absolutely not.
SK Hynix’s Q2 operating profit rose 557% year-over-year, Micron’s gross margin hit 84.9%, a record high. HBM capacity is sold out through 2026, and UBS predicts HBM demand will grow 90% year-over-year this year. In the past, this would be a huge positive, and the stock price should have soared.
So why the drop? Simply put: market expectations are running ahead of earnings.
🔴 Good earnings ≠ stock price rise, this is the biggest trap for tech stocks this year
SanDisk’s earnings are actually not bad; revenue and profit are growing, data center business maintains high growth, and over half of the supply for fiscal 2027 is locked in by long-term agreements. But what does the market complain about? The next quarter’s guidance is slightly below the "already very high expectations," and consumer business revenue dropped 32% year-over-year.
In plain terms: it’s not that storage demand disappeared, but everyone previously fantasized about "always exceeding expectations," and now that growth might slow, they start to sell off early.
SK Hynix is even more typical. Q2 operating profit exceeded the total for all of 2025, yet the stock price dropped nearly 20% after earnings. Why? Because the market’s valuation was based on "forever doubling growth," and once signals of slowing price increases appear, capital runs faster than a rabbit.
🟡 The fundamentals of AI memory haven’t collapsed
Although stock prices are falling, the supply-demand pattern for AI memory has not reversed.
What’s the status of HBM now? SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron’s combined capacity is basically sold out through 2026. Nvidia’s Rubin GPU is in early production, and HBM4 shipments start in Q4 this year. UBS forecasts HBM demand of 33.1 billion Gb in 2026, up 90% year-over-year, and another 77% increase in 2027.
More importantly, the profit distribution in the storage industry has undergone structural changes. The three major manufacturers have shifted over 80% of advanced process capacity to HBM and high-end DDR5, severely squeezing traditional consumer-grade DRAM and NAND. What does this mean? The AI memory seller’s market can last at least until mid-2028.
So the fundamentals haven’t collapsed; what collapsed are valuations and sentiment.
🟢 Lessons for crypto brothers
The "exploding earnings, plummeting stock prices" trend in storage chips is exactly the same as many tracks in the crypto world.
Think about the previous AI concept coins: project teams release a white paper and paint a big picture, and the coin price flies tenfold first. When it actually lands, even if the data is good, as long as it doesn’t meet the "most optimistic expectations," it crashes. This is the classic "buy the hype, sell the facts."
The current storage sector is going through this phase. The long-term logic of AI memory still holds, but the short-term stock price has overdrawn too much future. The market has switched from "speculating on dreams" to "looking at valuations," and is extremely sensitive to any data that falls short of expectations.
💡 My view
The AI memory bull market is not over, but the "buy anything and it goes up" phase is gone.
Next, the storage sector will differentiate: the true leaders with HBM capacity and Nvidia orders (SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung) will digest valuations with volatility, waiting for the next catalyst; while pure concept-chasing second- and third-tier stocks may be exposed.
For traders, now is not a good time to bottom-fish storage stocks. During the emotional ebb, there are still lower bottoms. But from a mid- to long-term allocation perspective, after this wave of panic subsides and the leaders’ valuations return to reasonable levels, AI memory remains one of the most certain tracks in semiconductors.
After all, to get AI running, computing power is the engine, memory is the fuel tank. The engine can be replaced, but the fuel in the tank can’t be less.
👇 Do you think this adjustment in storage chips is enough? How long can the AI memory bull market last? Let’s discuss in the comments.Don't be fooled, this is not a bull market signal
BTC active addresses have reached 980,000, the highest since December 2024. Retail investors see this data and get excited, thinking new money is coming in
But the truth is—Coldcard has collapsed, and everyone is moving out
The hardware wallet known in the community as "the safest" has a random number generation vulnerability; attackers can calculate private keys if they know the device ID and clock value
Since July 30, over 7,300 addresses have been compromised, 1,596 BTC lost, worth over $100 million. At least 15 attackers are operating simultaneously
The chain is completely blown up, about 890,000 BTC transferred within a week, even wallets dormant for 12.7 years were awakened, with 500 BTC moved overnight
In short, the 980,000 active addresses are driven by panic, not liquidity
Retail investors think a bull market is coming, but actually, a large amount of money is relocating 😶2026年夏天，韩国资本市场经历了一场足以写入金融教材的去杠杆风暴。 全球HBM（高带宽内存）龙头企业SK海力士，在短短一个多月内股价接近腰斩；而挂钩海力士的两倍杠杆ETF——7709，更是在同一时期最大跌幅超过85%，成为韩国近年来最具代表性的杠杆产品崩盘案例之一。 很多人把这场暴跌简单理解为"AI泡沫破裂"或者"海力士业绩不及预期"。 事实上，这两者都不是最核心的原因。 真正导致市场失控的，并不是一家公司的基本面，而是一场由杠杆、资金结构和投资者情绪共同推动的全民金融实验。 这场实验最终证明了一件事： 上涨可以由杠杆放大，但下跌同样会被杠杆成倍放大。 当市场进入去杠杆阶段，再优秀的公司，也可能因为交易结构而出现远超基本面的跌幅。 一、海力士为何会在一个多月内接近腰斩？ 作为全球HBM市场的核心供应商，SK海力士本应是AI浪潮最大的受益者之一。 过去两年，随着生成式AI快速发展，HBM几乎成为AI服务器不可或缺的核心零部件。 无论是英伟达GPU、AMD Instinct，还是各大云厂商建设AI数据中心，都需要大量HBM支持。 因此，海力士也成为全球资本追逐的焦点。 2026年6#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
The Federal Reserve is currently taking a hawkish stance.
Although employment data has started to weaken, as long as inflation doesn't come down, this slight employment softness is not enough for it to cut interest rates.
Simply put: inflation holds more sway right now.
Unless there is a widespread surge in unemployment, high interest rates will persist for a long time. The stock market and crypto space are unlikely to see a strong one-way trend; mostly, they will fluctuate back and forth. $SNDK $BTC $ETH #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Uniswap Enters the Launchpad Arena, Can UNI Unlock a New Narrative?
DEX leader Uniswap officially steps into the launchpad space, with Pools.trade launching on Robinhood Chain, and a web-based Launches aggregated issuance portal going live, consolidating token issuance, discovery, and trading all within its own product, no longer just a secondary market trading tool. Following the news, UNI surged sharply, with a nearly 60% monthly increase, as the market began hyping a new integrated "issuance + trading" narrative.
Here’s a simple explanation of the product’s core logic: Pools.trade offers two token issuance modes—4-hour Crowd Launch auctions and Instant Launch one-click token issuance; once issued, tokens automatically connect to Uniswap v4 pools with liquidity permanently locked, reducing rug pull risks. There are no traditional launchpad high listing fees, only the pool’s basic trading fees. Previously, Uniswap only handled token turnover after listing; now it directly enters the token birth stage, capturing the full lifecycle traffic of meme coins and new tokens.
However, there is a practical issue: currently, this launchpad is limited to Robinhood Chain and has not expanded to Ethereum mainnet or other public chains. At this stage, it is a small-scale beta test, not yet a full-chain game changer.
The market is clearly divided into bulls and bears, so let’s break down two scenarios.
Scenario One: Launchpad narrative materializes, UNI undergoes value revaluation (Bullish logic)
1. Traffic closed loop forms: a large volume of meme and new tokens circulate within the Uniswap ecosystem from issuance, driving trading volume, which generates fees. Coupled with the activated v4 fee switch, fee returns drive UNI burn, creating a positive flywheel of "issuance - trading volume - fees - burn."
2. Capturing launchpad market share: traditional launchpads generally charge high fees and have exit risks. Uniswap’s brand endorsement and permanent locked pools will attract many project teams and retail users, with Robinhood Chain’s popularity boosting overall protocol revenue.
3. Future cross-chain expansion: if this model succeeds, expanding to multiple chains will transform Uniswap from just a DEX into the core infrastructure for token issuance in DeFi, directly unlocking UNI’s valuation ceiling.
Scenario Two: Concept outweighs substance, new narrative hard to realize (Bearish logic)
1. Scene heavily reliant on meme hype: launchpad trading volume depends heavily on MEME popularity; if market sentiment cools, new token issuance and trading volume will shrink rapidly, directly reducing revenue.
2. Currently limited to Robinhood Chain with a small ecosystem, making it difficult to bring explosive revenue growth to the overall protocol in the short term; more of a thematic hype.
3. Intense industry competition: established launchpads and native public chain launchpads will fiercely compete, while a flood of junk and scam tokens may cause large-scale pitfalls, damaging Uniswap’s brand reputation.
4. UNI’s biggest pain point remains: the token is still primarily governance-focused; launchpad revenue is indirectly passed through fee switches, not direct UNI dividends, making the revenue transmission chain long and realization slow.
Practical insights for trading:
1. Distinguish between theme and fundamentals: this UNI rally is driven by the v4 fee switch + new launchpad narrative + Robinhood Chain hype. The launchpad is a new story but still early stage; don’t mistake hype for realized performance.
2. Focus on two core validation metrics:
① Real trading volume and protocol fee increments generated by Pools.trade on Robinhood Chain;
② Whether the product will expand to Ethereum mainnet and other major chains.
Only if these two points materialize will the narrative truly convert into value; if it remains a small L2 chain test, it’s mostly short-term hype.
3. Don’t ignore broader market constraints: UNI is a DeFi sector leader; if the overall crypto market weakens, even the best narrative can’t independently drive a major bull run.
In summary: Uniswap’s entry into the launchpad space brings imagination for UNI but is still in early testing. The narrative is attractive but requires real trading volume and cross-chain deployment to validate. Avoid blindly chasing highs; it’s a thematic hype phase, so risk control comes first. Saying Dogecoin could eventually reach zero isn't a prediction—it's a thought experiment. The real question is: under what conditions could a $10B+ asset actually lose all of its value? 1️⃣ Technological Obsolescence $DOGE still relies on the Scrypt algorithm and shares security with Litecoin through merged mining. If Litecoin's mining ecosystem were to weaken significantly, Dogecoin's network security could deteriorate as well. A more immediate challenge is competition from newer payment ecosys$BTC: Funds are buying, but the price is stuck; tonight's non-farm payrolls will reveal the outcome
Family, let's be straightforward.
Currently hovering around 64300-64400, touched 65026 yesterday but got pushed back, still stubbornly stuck in the 64000-65000 range. No new developments technically; the 64500-65000 resistance above is firmly suppressing, and 64100-63800 is the key support below.
The news is somewhat interesting.
Funds are buying: ETF net inflows this week are about 750 million, the best week since April, with BlackRock IBIT contributing the most. Whales have also accumulated over 20,000 coins since July 29, worth about 1.2 billion. Institutions and big players are quietly accumulating; this is not empty talk.
Macro is easing a bit: ADP was weak, rate hike expectations have cooled, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have eased. US stocks remain high, but BTC's ability to follow the rally is still weak, clearly decoupling.
The hard part is also here: The CLARITY Act is basically dead, the market has priced it in early. The real killer is tonight's non-farm payrolls; if the data is strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and BTC is likely to get hit; if the data is weak, it might provide some breathing room.
Overall: Funds are supporting the bottom, but the price just can't break through 65000; selling pressure and cautious sentiment remain above. August is historically a weak month for Bitcoin, plus tonight's non-farm payrolls, so short-term is very likely to continue oscillating.
Long/short reference:
For longs, prioritize the 64100-63800 support zone, stop loss below 63500, target 64500-64800.
For shorts, prioritize the 64800-65000 resistance zone, stop loss above 65200, target first at 64100.
If the direction is unclear, trade less and avoid heavy positions. Manage your position size carefully.
The market has risks; invest cautiously. $BTC $ETH Brothers, tonight is the non-farm payrolls, and I'm not excited at all, even a bit anxious.
I know many people are hoping for the data to crash, thinking that if it crashes, the Fed will have to cut rates, and easing is bullish. But I've been burned by this before. There was a time when macro data bombed, and the whole network was shouting for a bull comeback, but the market reversed into a recession panic, and risk assets all got smashed, with long positions buried.
So now I'm especially cautious about these "obvious bullish signals." Poor data might indeed force a rate cut, but if it's bad enough to make the market think the economy is heading for a hard landing, the first reaction of capital is to flee, not to bottom-fish. The crypto market never holds up in the face of such panic.
Tonight's expected new jobs are about 70,000. If the data is just a bit worse than this, that's the market's favorite script: rate cut expectations heat up but not enough to scare people, giving BTC a chance to push up. If the data crashes too hard, say down to 30,000 or 40,000 or even lower, that's dangerous. Gold will likely surge first, US Treasury yields will plunge, which is a typical safe-haven move and not good for risk assets. Conversely, if the data beats expectations and employment remains strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and BTC will probably have to pull back.
So my strategy tonight is one word: watch. My account now only holds some BTC and ETH call options, and my futures positions are almost untouched. This kind of data-driven volatility with spikes up and down is normal; rushing in to chase gains and cut losses is the easiest way to get hit from both sides. Watching with low leverage and light positions is nothing to be ashamed of.
💬 Interaction
Tonight's non-farm payrolls, do you think the data will beat expectations or bomb? Place your bets in the comments, and we'll see tomorrow who turns out to be the contrarian indicator. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower, with the Dow ending its five-day winning streak. The overall decline was limited, merely a short-term profit-taking digestion, with no panic selling pressure. The market showed a particularly clear structural divergence, not an overall weakening.
Within tech stocks, there was a severe split between gains and losses. The storage chip sector was the most abnormal, opening lower and then rising before still falling broadly. Western Digital led the decline, with SanDisk and SK Hynix weakening simultaneously, while only Seagate closed slightly higher. Other chip sectors were relatively strong, with ARM, Qualcomm, AMD, and TSMC all rising, and Nvidia and Intel making slight adjustments.
The AI application sector was the biggest weak spot overnight, with sentiment cooling rapidly and many core stocks plunging. Datadog and Applovin fell over 19%, showing clear signs of short-term capital flight.
🚀 SpaceX Extreme Negative News Reversal Rally
The previous day, the stock plummeted over 13%, compounded by a trillion-level lock-up release, with the market unanimously bearish. However, on the day of the release, it surged over 6% against the trend, with market cap returning above 1.5 trillion and trading volume hitting a one-and-a-half-month high.
Core logic behind the reversal:
- Negative news was priced in early: The previous day’s plunge fully digested the lock-up pressure, releasing selling pressure in advance
- Shorts forced to cover: High short positions were wrong-footed, passive buying pushed the stock price up
- Strong institutional support: Multiple investment banks raised target prices and maintained buy ratings
- Retail investors eagerly bottom-fished: Opening buy volume far exceeded daily averages
Note: This is only the first round of lock-up releases; there will be large-scale releases at the end of this year and next year, so the rally is only a short-term sentiment recovery. Additionally, SpaceX’s joint $16.8 billion Texas superchip factory with Tesla is underway, providing ongoing hardware sector catalysts.
📰 Overnight Key News Highlights
- Hormuz Strait agreement not reached; U.S. continues negotiations, supporting oil prices sentimentally
- U.S. plans to delay polysilicon tariffs, setting a transition period, benefiting the domestic photovoltaic import supply chain
- High-end memory shortage; Nvidia plans to reduce new chip memory specifications
- OpenAI opens unlimited free text chat for users, countersues Apple for infringement claims
- U.S. introduces new policies cracking down on birth tourism and tightening birthright citizenship, with legal battles expected
- World’s first mRNA flu vaccine approved, accelerating sector commercialization
- Trump frequently liaises with new Fed chair; upcoming monetary policy is worth watching
In summary, the core of the overnight market was a trade on expectation gaps.
The widely bearish negative news materialized but failed to trigger a sell-off, even sparking a reversal rally.
Continue to closely monitor the tech sector and the follow-up performance of stocks with lock-up releases.
$SPCX $SKHY $WDC #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？
Gold has fully played the "safe haven" role this week: spot prices touched around $4280, with a weekly gain close to 6%, reaching about a seven-week high. BTC, however, has been hovering around $64,000, moving sideways, showing a completely different rhythm.
According to the old logic, gold and BTC share the narrative of "scarce assets" and "hedging currency depreciation"; when gold surges, BTC should benefit somewhat. But this time, the market clearly did not follow that script.
The reason is not hard to find: these two groups of buyers are not buying into the same story at all.
Gold is driven by more direct macro expectations. Falling oil prices have eased inflation expectations, employment data has reignited market judgments on interest rate paths, and money naturally flows into traditional safe-haven assets. After breaking through $4200, gold continued to push above $4280, and trend-following funds, seeing the momentum, have become even more enthusiastic.
The environment facing BTC is much more complex.
In the long term, it has the story of a store of value, but in short-term trading, it never sheds the label of a risk asset. Whenever there is turbulence in U.S. tech stocks, many funds' first reaction is not "gold is up, so BTC should be bought too," but rather to reduce their high-volatility positions first.
Price movements confirm this. On August 4, BTC was around $63,500, then returned above $64,000, and around August 6, about $64,700. It did not continue to crash, indicating there were buyers at the lower levels; but compared to gold’s nearly 6% weekly gain, BTC clearly lacks a strong force of active buying.
Interestingly, BTC is not without support. Demand for spot ETFs remains resilient, and institutional funds have not truly withdrawn. The current state is more like "someone is holding it up, but no one is pushing it higher"—the price can hold above $60,000 but cannot break out in a continuous rally like gold.
One thing to be clear about here: long-term narratives can be shared, but short-term trading cannot be conflated.
Gold is currently trading on safe haven, interest rate, and inflation expectations; BTC, besides these, also needs to consider U.S. stock market risk appetite, ETF fund flows, leveraged positions, and whether new incremental funds are entering the entire crypto market.
Therefore, I won’t rush to conclude that BTC will immediately catch up just because gold has risen.
What’s more worth watching is: after gold stabilizes above $4200, if the macro environment continues to move toward easing, and BTC can hold around $63,000–$64,000, when risk appetite warms up, will funds reprice BTC’s "digital gold" attribute?
If by then gold remains high and BTC shows significant volume increase and sustained net inflows, this long-delayed catch-up rally will truly begin.Actually, I have always believed: the Federal Reserve is not as composed as the market imagines. Rate hikes are more like a political performance before the midterm elections, while rate cuts are the predetermined endgame — no matter how much the performance goes on, it can't change the inevitable conclusion of high interest rates coming to an end, which is also why I have been bullish all along.
Looking at the recent situation in the crypto space, Bitcoin $BTC has been repeatedly testing around $64,000, Ethereum $ETH hovers around $1,900. Weak ADP data once pushed BTC higher, but as hawkish signals reemerged, BTC and ETH fell about 2.8% and 3.6% respectively last week, with net outflows from spot ETFs.
ADP new jobs plunged to 44,000, less than half of last month, but PCE inflation remains high at 3.7%. Amid this data contradiction, Cook and Kashkari took turns calling for rate hikes, but everyone knows these tough words won't last long.
The capital market votes with real money. On August 4, Nvidia and Microsoft each contributed about $700 billion in market value, and the Nasdaq surged 2.13%; but once the probability of rate hikes rose, on August 6 memory chip stocks plummeted in response, Western Digital dropped 13%, SanDisk $SNDK fell over 6%, and AI software stocks also plunged.
Short-term hawkish slogans will continue to be shouted, but once the midterm elections are over, high interest rates must come to an end. Debt pressure and economic slowdown make rate cuts not an option but an inevitability. Nvidia, Western Digital, Bitcoin, Ethereum — all are waiting for that turning point, and that point is actually not far away.
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Long and Short Crowding List
Continuously paying fees on one side is not scary; what is worth being cautious about is paying fees but failing to push the price.
$SKHYNIX current rate +0.3202%, settled +0.368% in the past 24 hours, at the 90th percentile of recent samples. The 15-minute rise with reduced positions looks more like short covering or overall position withdrawal, and new long positions have not yet been confirmed. Even with extreme rates, the most certain thing when OI contracts is deleveraging; which side is exiting cannot be concluded based on this data alone.
$BICO current rate -0.1828%, settled -0.408% in the past 24 hours, at the 2nd percentile of recent samples. Price is going down, and positions are also decreasing; position retreat is more certain than directional attribution. The crowding indicator remains, but risk exposure is decreasing, so treat this period as deleveraging.
$RIVER current rate +0.0122%, settled +0.084% in the past 24 hours, at the 84th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions are rising together; this fluctuation involves new positions, not just position reduction. Longs continue to pay fees and increase positions, crowding still has price feedback; once positions increase but price fails to move, risk will quickly rise.😂 Gold just had its biggest rally in months... because people stopped panicking.
Imagine you own a jewelry store.
One morning, your neighbor tells you: "The war may be calming down."
At the same time, another neighbor whispers: "The economy is slowing."
Suddenly, everyone starts buying gold.
Wait... isn't gold supposed to rise only when people panic?
Welcome to macroeconomics. 😅
📊 What happened?
• Gold surged 4% — its biggest rally since February.
• ADP jobs came in at 44K versus 70K expected.
• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 60% to 55%.
• Oil fell to a three-week low as hopes grew for a shipping agreement around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Even so, gold is still more than 20% below its record high from January.
But here's what many people miss... 👀
Most people think gold only loves fear.
This rally wasn't driven by panic.
It was driven by lower interest rate expectations.
Weak employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns.
Two completely different stories pointed to the same conclusion:
👉 The Fed may not need to keep its policy as restrictive.
That's why buyers rushed in.
🧠 Key Insight
Markets don't move because a single headline sounds positive.
They move when several narratives suddenly align.
Friday's NFP report could confirm this breakout—or erase it just as quickly.
If Friday's NFP data comes in stronger than expected... which drops first: Gold or Bitcoin? Brothers, ALLO surged 14.07% today, currently priced at $0.3159, rebounding again from the $0.27‑0.30 support zone.
The past 4‑5 weeks' pattern is highly repetitive: rally → sharp drop → seeking support → rebound, more driven by capital momentum rather than solid long-term fundamentals.
Many say this time will be different, with the logic being that Cobot and Quack AI have completed integration, no longer just a whitepaper roadmap but with actual product implementation.
The core highlight of Allora is multi-AI model prediction + confidence-weighted output, with paper tests showing better results than ordinary averaging algorithms.
Key risk: the unlocking test on August 11
About 17.25 million ALLO tokens will be unlocked, corresponding to a market value of about $4.5 million.
In tokenomics, supporters and core contributors’ shares are locked long-term, with a staking reward cap of 12% combined with a smooth release mechanism, which will somewhat alleviate selling pressure.
Resistance: $0.38‑0.40, must break out with volume to confirm trend strengthening
Support: $0.27‑0.30, holding this bullishly is the bargaining chip; a valid break below means turning bearish again
Multiple bottom tests and rebounds only indicate that there is capital willing to buy at this level, not a solid bottom; a weakening market can still break through.
It is still a speculative market now; the product has progress but has not yet commercialized. The August 11 unlocking is a short-term touchstone; focus closely on support and volume.
Personal market analysis and information compilation, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ALLO
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips
Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction."
In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once.
Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence.
The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive.
Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation.
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes:
1. Employment data significantly strengthens
The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes.
2. Employment data significantly weakens
Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls.
3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot
This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation.
Practical advice for ordinary traders
① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges.
② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle.
③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform.
Personal market thoughts:
🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment
🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern
🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention
📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment
💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METISSanDisk and Western Digital were sold off despite strong earnings reports due to guidance falling short of overheated expectations. The core conflict lies in the liquidation of long positions at high valuations versus the long-term supply-demand improvement in AI storage.
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, with over two-thirds of growth driven by average selling price increases. Western Digital's revenue was $3.747 billion, both confirming high gross margin capabilities. However, funds still used SanDisk's next quarter guidance of $10.55 billion, which missed very high expectations, as a trigger to sell off. Intraday, $SNDK dipped to $116.7, $WDC retraced to $40.8, dragging down other storage stocks like Micron, reflecting a sharp drop in market risk appetite during the peak expectation realization period, triggering concentrated exits of leveraged positions and profit-taking.
The current priority of driving factors is: the pressure of chip liquidation under extremely high expectations outweighs valuation reshaping caused by cautious management guidance, which in turn outweighs the fundamental support from industry-wide average selling price increases.
The bullish scenario requires stabilization of chips at key support levels after the sell-off wave. If funds recognize the optimization of industry supply-demand structure, and within the next three trading days $SNDK holds the $116.7 bottom and recovers the guidance gap, while Micron and $WDC stop falling and rebound, it indicates the negative news has been absorbed and the washout is over, and the valuation recovery rally will restart. The signal that this scenario fails is an intraday rebound with low volume followed by a break below the sell-off low.
The bearish scenario stems from continued contraction in risk appetite causing valuation downgrades. If macro risk appetite fails to stabilize and the sell-off further squeezes derivative positions, causing SanDisk to fail to maintain above $116.7, extremely optimistic funds will turn to continuous withdrawal, triggering a sector-wide correction. The signal that this scenario fails is major funds buying heavily on dips and pushing SanDisk to stabilize and rebound.
Overall, the condition for the bullish expectation to fail is stagnation in enterprise SSD demand growth or a month-over-month decline in average product selling price, meaning the current profit-driving momentum no longer exists.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on the strength of fund support at $SNDK $116.7 and $WDC $40.8 support levels, as well as liquidity recovery of the SOXX semiconductor index after position adjustments.
#西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 Nonfarm payrolls for July will be announced tonight at 20:30.
Market expectations: about 80,000 new jobs added, unemployment rate at 4.2%. Last month actual was 57,000, with April-May combined revisions downward by 74,000.
Current background: Federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. 10-year US Treasury yield about 4.67%. Probability of a rate hike in September about 57%. June job openings at 7.359 million, latest initial jobless claims about 199,000.
Three scenarios:
Nonfarm > 100,000-120,000 (unemployment stable, wages slightly strong) → rate hike expectations rise → US Treasury yields and USD rise → high-valuation tech, semiconductors/memory, and crypto under pressure, gold may pull back.
Nonfarm 50,000-90,000 (unemployment 4.2%-4.3%, wages stable) → market's most favored outcome. Rate hike necessity declines → US Treasury yields and USD fall back → growth stocks, crypto, and gold all relatively benefit.
Nonfarm near zero or negative growth (unemployment ≥4.4%) → recession concerns rise. US Treasury yields drop sharply, gold benefits, but US stocks and crypto may rise first then fall.
Observation priority order: nonfarm payrolls → prior value revisions → unemployment rate → wages → 2-year/10-year US Treasury yields. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
Damn! The Fed has completely messed up. Employment is as weak as a pile of crap, yet it can't save inflation from staying high.
Everyone thought a cooling labor market would force out the usual dovish script. But in July, private sector job additions were a damn 44,000, less than half of expectations, the worst in half a year. Unemployment claims remain low, people lose jobs but quickly find new ones, and wages stubbornly keep climbing. This isn’t a mild cooldown; companies are hoarding cash and not hiring, but those on the job still get pay raises, pushing all costs onto consumers.
The dual mandate is now a joke. Price stability is in the driver’s seat; employment is sidelined. Officials openly say: if inflation doesn’t keep falling, tightening continues, no negotiation. Structural pressures have shifted from demand to a wage-cost death spiral, and no one at the Fed is playing blind. The market has already figured it out; the odds of a 25 basis point hike in September are over 50%. The old script “weak jobs = automatic easing” is dead.
Analysts on X are blunt: nonfarm payrolls below 60,000 will kill rate hike expectations, sparking a risk asset rally; 70,000-100,000 is the golden range, pushing prices higher; once it exceeds 120,000 with strong wages, the dollar surges, yields explode, and growth stocks get hammered.
Others focus on the ADP plunge combined with a jump in the services price payment index, saying the Fed is stuck between soft jobs and stubborn inflation, trapped. Institutional voices are similar: some think the labor market is still tight but wages aren’t fully out of control, some warn service prices are the real threat, and others start talking about the collapse of hawkish credibility and a return to devaluation trades.
Some investors are even harsher, pointing out that while surface numbers look okay, underlying employment is contracting, input costs are accelerating, and profits are being squeezed hard. There’s no clean dovish exit.
Crypto folks are watching the same mess: Bitcoin is quietly hovering around 64,400 before nonfarm, advising not to hold heavy positions, wait for direction. If data is soft, it might bounce to 65,000 or even 66,000; if hard, it will test 63,000-64,000. The risk asset logic is exactly the same.
The whole drama now hinges on a deadly question: if fewer jobs are hired, can wages and prices be firmly suppressed? Or will costs remain high and hiring difficult, forcing the Fed to keep raising rates regardless of weak jobs? Tonight’s nonfarm and next week’s CPI will reveal the answer.
Until then, the market is just tugging back and forth. Anyone chasing big positions and wild swings is just asking for trouble.Your BTC candlestick chart is actually a shadow of oil prices and Federal Reserve speeches.
Woke up this morning and glanced at my account.
BTC is still hovering around $64,000. No rise, no fall, dead calm.
But have you ever thought—the real factor deciding your position direction isn’t those few lines on the candlestick chart.
It’s the Strait of Hormuz.
On August 5, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Karbasian said that the Iran-Oman agreement on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is "close to finalization."
The market breathed a sigh of relief. Oil prices fell.
But three days have passed.
Insiders revealed: reaching an agreement doesn’t mean the strait will immediately reopen. Iran also said: as long as the U.S. continues hostile actions, the strait will remain closed.
Even harsher— the Iranian parliament is reviewing a bill banning U.S. and Israeli ships from entering the Strait of Hormuz, with fines up to one-fifth of the cargo value for violations.
What’s the point of signing an agreement if it can’t be enforced? It’s as if it wasn’t signed.
Now, let me draw you a transmission chain. This chain is deciding the life or death of your position.
👇
Strait of Hormuz navigation blocked → Oil prices surge → Inflation expectations rise → Federal Reserve rate hikes → Interest-free asset BTC under pressure → Your position shrinks
Let’s break it down one by one.
First link: How important is the Strait of Hormuz?
About one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this strait. On July 23, the navigation volume dropped to single digits.
Second link: Oil prices have gone crazy.
Today, WTI crude rose 4.06%, closing at $78.27/barrel. Brent crude rose 5.04%.
A 5% increase in one day. Geopolitical risk premium is being re-priced into oil prices.
Third link: Inflation is about to rise.
Energy prices are a core input variable for CPI. Every extra day the strait remains closed adds more upward pressure on oil prices. The market predicts August CPI will rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since January.
Fourth link: The Federal Reserve can’t sit still.
Latest reports: Fed Chair Waller has opened the door to a rate hike in September. Insiders say if inflation data remains high in the coming weeks, Waller will prepare to raise rates at the September meeting.
U.S. Treasury yields have already moved first— the 10-year Treasury yield surged 6 basis points to 4.67%. The market is voting with its feet: "Waller, we don’t trust your tough talk, we trust the data."
Fifth link: BTC under pressure.
This is the most critical link.
Previously, geopolitical conflicts (like Russia-Ukraine) simultaneously pushed up oil prices and the safe-haven demand for gold/BTC.
But this time it’s different.
The weight of "rate hike suppression" outweighs "safe-haven demand."
That’s why gold actually fell when the war escalated.
BTC is the same. Fed rate hikes → interest-free assets sold off → liquidity tightens → your position shrinks.
Today BTC is consolidating above $64,000. But consolidation doesn’t mean safety.
Understand now?
Your BTC candlestick chart is actually a shadow of oil prices and Federal Reserve speeches.
If you don’t understand geopolitics, you won’t understand the direction of the candlesticks.
Finally, here are two indicators to watch:
👉 WTI crude price— if oil breaks $80, inflation expectations will be uncontrollable.
👉 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield— if yield breaks 4.7%, the probability of Fed rate hikes rises sharply.
These two indicators can predict BTC’s mid-term direction better than any candlestick.
Stop staring at the 15-minute candlestick.
Look at oil prices. Look at U.S. Treasury yields.
That’s the real "fundamental" of your position.
Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, your BTC moves one step further from $65,000.
$BTC $BZ $CL #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 😂 Gold just had its biggest rally in months... because people stopped panicking.
Imagine you own a jewelry store.
One morning, your neighbor tells you: "The war may be calming down."
At the same time, another neighbor whispers: "The economy is slowing."
Suddenly, everyone starts buying gold.
Wait... isn't gold supposed to rise only when people panic?
Welcome to macroeconomics. 😅
📊 What happened?
• Gold surged 4% — its biggest rally since February.
• ADP jobs came in at 44K versus 70K expected.
• The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 60% to 55%.
• Oil fell to a three-week low as hopes grew for a shipping agreement around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Even so, gold is still more than 20% below its record high from January.
But here's what many people miss... 👀
Most people think gold only loves fear.
This rally wasn't driven by panic.
It was driven by lower interest rate expectations.
Weak employment data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns.
Two completely different stories pointed to the same conclusion:
👉 The Fed may not need to keep its policy as restrictive.
That's why buyers rushed in.
🧠 Key Insight
Markets don't move because a single headline sounds positive.
They move when several narratives suddenly align.
Friday's NFP report could confirm this breakout—or erase it just as quickly.
If Friday's NFP data comes in stronger than expected... which drops first: Gold or Bitcoin? On August 6, 2026, AMD officially announced the acquisition of Canadian AI inference chip company Taalas. The timing of the announcement is intriguing. Just two days ago, AMD released its Q2 2026 financial report. Data shows that the company's data center business revenue reached $6.718 billion, a year-on-year increase of 107%. Instinct GPUs continue to ramp up, and AI business has once again become the core driver of the company's growth. Against the backdrop of rapid growth in GPU business, why does AMD still choose to acquire an AI chip startup that has only been established for three years? The answer may be simple: GPUs remain important, but the future will not be limited to GPUs. This acquisition not only means AMD is completing the last piece of the AI inference puzzle, but also signals that the entire AI chip industry is entering a new stage of competition—shifting from "who owns more GPUs" to "who can complete more inference tasks at lower cost." This is not only a strategic move by AMD but could also become a major turning point in the evolution of AI infrastructure in the coming years. 1. Why must AMD acquire Taalas now? Over the past three years, the AI chip industry has revolved around almost one keyword: Training. Whether it's OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google, the core of large model competition is training larger models, making GPUs the most scarce resource in the entire AI industry. But as large models gradually become more capable,[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, with employment data cooling off like this, why is the Federal Reserve still talking about raising rates? Can weak employment really outweigh inflation?
Pharaoh says directly, the issue now is not "raise rates or cut rates," but the tug-of-war inside the Fed between "weak employment" and "sticky inflation."
First, let's look at how divided the data is.
July's ADP new jobs added were only 44,000, less than half of last month's 95,000, showing that high interest rates are indeed eroding the economy. But at the same time, wage growth for those staying in their jobs remains at 4.4%, while wage growth for job switchers accelerated to 7%, the fastest since August 2025. Companies are hiring less, but to compete for core talent, they still have to pay a premium. This means the structural tightness in the labor market is far from resolved, and the "wage-price" stickiness risk remains.
Now, see how divided the Fed is internally.
At the July FOMC meeting, the vote was 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents voted against, advocating a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction. Even more divided, Fed Governor Cook clearly said, "If inflation fails to come down, we are ready to raise rates," while Waller refused to provide forward guidance, leaving the market guessing.
So, can weak employment really outweigh inflation?
Pharaoh thinks not for now. Core PCE year-over-year is still at 3.3%, far from the 2% target. Employment is indeed cooling, but wage growth remains between 4.4% and 7%, so the inflation "wage-price" transmission chain is not broken. After the ADP data release, the market's probability of a September rate hike only slightly dropped from 58.3% to 54.9%, indicating the market doesn't believe employment data can completely block rate hikes.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
In the short term, weak employment data gives Bitcoin a breather, bouncing from 63,000 back near 65,000. But in the medium term, as long as inflation doesn't come down, rate hike expectations hang overhead, and Bitcoin's macro pressure won't ease. Pharaoh's still saying: mindless shorting near 65,000 is easy money, taking 500-1000 points is a breeze!
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't get lost! $ETH $BTC $BICO #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #spacex 911.5 million shares unlocked on Thursday
The largest stock unlock in U.S. history is coming, with nearly $100 billion worth of SpaceX shares being released tomorrow.
On Thursday, about 911.5 million shares held by SpaceX insiders will be unlocked. Based on Wednesday's closing price of $108.27, this represents a market value of approximately $98.7 billion, more than 1.4 times the current float.
And this is just the beginning. SpaceX has designed an unprecedented nine-stage phased unlocking mechanism. Thursday's release accounts for 20% subject to a 180-day lock-up period. By early December this year, the circulating shares will surge from the current 639 million to 5.33 billion, an increase of over seven times.
The market is already pricing this in. $SPCX dropped more than 13% on Wednesday, closing at $108.27, a new low since listing, down about 38% from the June peak. Shorts have already heavily entered, with about 30%-35% of the float shorted, and short sellers holding unrealized gains of approximately $5.3-$7 billion.
What does this mean for ordinary traders?
Two directions are worth watching:
First, if concentrated selling occurs, short-term pressure will continue, especially since early investors have costs far below the issue price and strong motivation to cash out.
Second, the short position is already large; if actual selling is less than expected, it could trigger a short squeeze rebound, becoming a critical moment in the battle between bulls and bears.
#特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 (Content synchronized with X) In-depth Research ②｜Why Might CORE Generate Value?
In the previous article, we discussed a question:
What exactly is CoreDAO building?
If Core's goal is to become the infrastructure between Bitcoin and smart contract finance, then the next more important question is:
What value does the CORE token actually have?
I believe the most worthy topic to study is Dual Staking.
1. Dual Staking Could Change CORE's Role
The logic is not complicated:
BTC + CORE.
BTC participates in staking, and CORE also participates in staking.
After CORE and BTC reach a certain ratio, a higher BTC staking yield tier can be obtained.
This means CORE is no longer just a native token for paying gas fees.
If the scale of BTC staking continues to expand in the future, some BTC holders will be motivated to actively hold and stake CORE to increase their returns.
Thus, CORE may gradually transform from an ordinary on-chain asset into a productive asset within the Bitcoin financial system.
Of course, this is only a potential mechanism, not a realized outcome.
What truly determines value are users, capital, and revenue.
2. What Kind of Economic Flywheel Could CORE Form?
Core's potential economic cycle can be understood as:
BTC enters Core → BTC participates in staking → demand for higher yields arises → Dual Staking creates demand for CORE → CORE is staked and locked → BTCFi applications expand → activities like trading, lending, LST, DEX, payments increase → network generates fees and ecosystem revenue → CORE's value capture is enhanced.
If this chain truly runs smoothly, CORE's positioning could gradually shift from a "Layer1 token" to the "core coordinating asset in the BTCFi economic system."
But the reverse is also true:
Ecosystem revenue declines → CORE demand decreases → staking incentives drop → capital exits → ecosystem activity declines.
Therefore, CORE's ultimate competition is not about who has a better story, but who can form a real network effect.
3. How Should We View the 2.1 Billion CORE?
CORE's maximum supply is about 2.1 billion tokens.
But studying Tokenomics should not only focus on Maximum Supply.
What really matters is observing:
Circulating Supply
Unlock
Emission
Staking
Demand
2.1 billion addresses the long-term supply cap.
However, if supply continues to be released in the future without sufficient real demand growth, the price may still face pressure.
Conversely, if ecosystem demand, staking demand, and long-term lock-up speed continue to increase, the supply-demand relationship may change.
So:
CORE's scarcity is not determined solely by the number "2.1 billion," but jointly by supply and real demand.
4. BTCFi Success Does Not Equal Core's Success
This is a point that must be kept clear when researching CORE.
Currently, the Bitcoin financial track has multiple different routes, including native Bitcoin staking, Bitcoin Layer2, BTC lending, BTC LST, BTC derivatives, BTC payments, and asset management.
Babylon, Stacks, BOB, and other projects are all competing for the Bitcoin financial market.
So:
BTCFi success ≠ Core success.
What Core really needs to prove is:
Can it form a unique product advantage?
Can it continuously attract BTC?
Can it form real users?
Can it generate real revenue?
Ultimately, can ecosystem revenue create sustained demand for CORE?
5. What Am I Most Focused on in 2026?
I will not just watch the CORE price every day.
I will continuously observe six indicators:
① Amount of BTC on Core
② Scale of Dual Staking
③ Quality of BTCFi TVL
④ Users and trading volume
⑤ Fees and ecosystem revenue
⑥ CORE value capture
If these indicators start to improve simultaneously, the market's pricing logic for CORE may change.
Conversely, if there is only narrative without users, revenue, and real economic activity, then even the BTCFi leader might just be a market story.
So I won't tell you:
"CORE will definitely rise."
What I truly care about is:
When can Core turn the BTCFi narrative into real economic activity?
If this chain ultimately forms:
BTC inflow → Dual Staking → BTCFi TVL → user growth → trading volume → ecosystem revenue → CORE demand → value capture
Then CORE truly has the foundation for revaluation.
This is the core reason I study CoreDAO.
Don't just focus on the K-line.
Study the network, users, capital, and cash flow behind the asset.
DYOR.
This article only represents personal research and opinions and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and risky; please make independent judgments.In-depth Research ①｜What Exactly Is CoreDAO Building?
Many people know $CORE starting from its price.
Some remember it once reached $6, while others only recall its current slump.
But if you only focus on the candlestick chart, it's easy to overlook a more important question:
What exactly is CoreDAO building?
After revisiting the Core White Paper and the current BTCFi roadmap, I prefer to understand Core as:
a foundational infrastructure attempting to connect Bitcoin's security, BTC capital, and smart contract finance, rather than just an ordinary EVM Layer1.
1. Satoshi Plus Is Core's Most Central Design
What’s most worth studying about Core is not EVM compatibility, but the Satoshi Plus consensus.
It tries to combine three forces:
Bitcoin miners support Core validators through Delegated Proof of Work by lending Bitcoin’s hash power.
BTC holders participate in Core network security and staking via Bitcoin’s native time-lock mechanism.
CORE holders engage in validator elections, governance, and network security through DPoS.
Simply put:
Bitcoin provides the security foundation, BTC provides the capital, and CORE handles network coordination and incentives.
This is also a key difference between Core and ordinary Layer1s.
2. What Core Really Wants to Do Is More Than Just "Bring BTC into DeFi"
Bitcoin holds one of the largest crypto asset pools globally, but native BTC lacks complex smart contract capabilities.
Past BTCFi solutions often followed this pattern:
BTC → wrapping → cross-chain → DeFi
This model improves BTC capital efficiency but introduces additional risks like custody, bridging, and smart contracts.
Core’s approach is different.
Its Bitcoin Staking uses Bitcoin’s native CLTV time-lock, allowing BTC holders to participate in the Core network without handing BTC directly to third-party custody.
This means Core aims to build:
Bitcoin native assets + smart contract finance.
Not simply creating a new wrapped BTC asset.
3. Why Is This Route Worth Attention?
Because Bitcoin is undergoing an important transformation.
In the past, Bitcoin was mostly understood as "digital gold."
But with BTCFi’s development, a new question arises:
If Bitcoin is one of the largest crypto assets globally, can it not only be used for store of value but also become a key collateral and productive asset in the global on-chain financial system?
This is exactly the problem BTCFi tries to solve.
What’s special about Core is that from the protocol design’s inception, Bitcoin is placed at the core.
Satoshi Plus is not a marketing concept added later to cater to the BTCFi market; it’s part of Core’s underlying architecture.
If in the future Bitcoin evolves from digital gold into a global internet-native financial asset, then Core’s "Bitcoin + smart contracts + DeFi" route indeed has greater development potential.
But we must stay clear-headed here:
A correct technical route does not guarantee project success.
BTCFi growth does not guarantee CORE price increase.
What truly determines Core’s future is whether it can convert its technical advantages into users, capital, applications, and real economic activity.
In this first part, I focus more on what Core "is doing."
In the next article, we will continue to explore more critical questions:
Why does CORE need to exist?
What does Dual Staking really mean?
How should we view the 2.1 billion CORE supply model?
And most importantly:
Can Core form a real BTCFi value capture flywheel?
DYOR.Looking at the $BTC market from a macro perspective, there's really no need to get anxious over minor micro fluctuations. Referring to the end-of-bear trends in 2019 and 2022, after the daily 20/60 moving averages densely intertwine, historical patterns without exception always first launch a tentative rebound of about 7% toward the daily 120 moving average.
Before the structure is established, the trading plan is actually very clear:
1. Trial and right-side signals: Left-side trials only carry small stop losses (1%-2%) for attempts; large capital in spot always waits for the "weekly moving average break and pullback without breaking" plus "weekly MACD bullish divergence" resonance—that is the definitive signal that the downtrend has completely ended.
2. Black swan defense: The market never lacks extreme black swan spikes; do not try to bottom guess or go all-in, rely on strict risk control and cash flow (such as dual-currency finance) to hedge the friction costs during long grinding periods.
3. $ETH position defense: ETH native staking yields (<3%) have no advantage against US Treasury risk-free yields (~4%). Currently, it can only oscillate within the large triangle range of 1500-2330, so spot allocation should not exceed 5%, with the defensive focus still anchored on BTC. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
The signals from the Federal Reserve are becoming increasingly conflicted.
When the ADP report came out, the market generally saw it as positive: private sector employment increased by only 44,000, below expectations, indicating employment is finally cooling down. However, the initial jobless claims quickly contradicted this, at 199,000, staying below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks. The job market is not weakening across the board; it’s uneven.
Fed Governor Cook also commented that if inflation does not continue to cool soon, she is prepared to take policy action. CME data currently shows a 56.7% probability of a rate hike in September, more than half. The inflation task is not yet complete, and employment data only shows localized easing, far from enough to make the Fed fully pivot.
This is the current macro reality—employment is cooling locally, but overall not enough to cause a Fed pivot. One data point shows weakness, another shows strength, and the market is tugged back and forth between these signals, which is why BTC can’t find a clear direction.
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are the real key variable.
If nonfarm payrolls continue to weaken, rate hike expectations will ease, and BTC has a chance to move upward. If nonfarm payrolls strengthen instead, the market will treat ADP as noise, and rate hike expectations will be pushed back up.
Guessing direction now is useless; wait for the data to come out.
My judgment is clear—the short-term market will be driven by macro data, so it’s better to wait for results than to bet on direction.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $SNDK Seeing so many people betting on a rebound, I instantly feel this short position is already secure
Storage is indeed rebounding, but at most it's a small-scale rebound, it doesn't change the fact that the downtrend is still ongoing. Isn't it too early to bottom-fish now? There will definitely be another big drop
First, the Q4 earnings expectations do not meet market expectations, lacking confidence for the future
Second, those who profited earlier want to take profits and exit
Now the storage sector competition is fierce, and once the big manufacturers restore capacity, price wars can break out at any time
Company executives are continuously selling shares, so we retail investors don't need to rush to catch the falling knife Entering this week, crypto is in a steady but slow upward rhythm: Bitcoin has been gradually rising from 63,000 on August 2nd to nearly 65,000 today; Ethereum once nearly dropped below 1,800 but has now climbed back above 1,900. The capital flow is cooperating well, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows for three consecutive trading days this week, and Ethereum ETFs also having net inflows on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the current market, this liquidity is very valuable.
Next door continues the roller coaster. The US stock indexes show little fluctuation, but individual stocks are volatile: Google down 4%, SpaceX dropped 13.6% in one day, falling below 110, with 100 still hanging in the balance; SanDisk down 5% after earnings. The Korean stock market just rebounded yesterday but fell back today, KOSPI down 4.6%, Samsung down 6%, SK Hynix down 10%. Popular storage sector stocks have basically returned to April levels; the past three months’ rally was just a pipe dream—but amid this FOMO-driven rise and violent liquidations, countless leveraged principal amounts have been wiped out. In any market, principal is always the most precious.
Macro conditions have slightly improved: oil prices remain below 80, the probability of a September rate hike has dropped to 54%; gold has rebounded from below 4,000 to nearly 4,300, indirectly indicating some control over inflation. But more critical for crypto is a clear bill—tomorrow is August 7th, only one working day left, and rationally this bill probably won’t pass this time. Two remaining windows: after Congress handles the budget in September, or after the midterm elections. No need to rush, this bill will eventually pass, just a matter of time.
Focus on on-chain. The most exciting last night was Robinhood, originating from Uniswap’s direct involvement. Uniswap now has a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $1.7 billion, nearly twice that of second-place Pancake—DEX leader leveraging technology and deep understanding of AMM to act as a launchpad, with a strong late-mover advantage. My judgment: as long as Uni wants to do it well, replacing Pons as the top RB chain launchpad is very likely. Pons has indeed fallen hard recently, with market cap once below 20 million.
Pools.trade first day results: top frog once reached 10 million, now down to 8.6 million; second place official MEME at 2.3 million. The platform just opened, continuously watching Uni official and RB official attitudes. Funny thing is Sushiswap quickly teamed up with Bnker to launch Pools.fun copying the idea, but the site currently only has one animation and the few tokens issued have no height. Amid the chaos, my top pick remains Uniswap.
Cashcat deserves a separate mention: after I sold 160 million, it dropped below 40 million at its lowest, but bounced back to 120 million in just three days. This violent shakeout completed chip turnover; if the official team provides further support, breaking previous highs won’t be a big problem.
On BSC side, after Alpha announced dividend support, Mars Coin once surged to 70 million, now down to about 50 million. Yesterday CZ quoted a tweet with the original text "All on Binance"—everyone should carefully ponder this tweet: the first layer quotes "Why run around when the Binance Security Department has it all"; the second layer translates this for foreigners who don’t understand Chinese; the third layer, AOB in the English world is a more widely spread advertising term than Binance. So on-chain discussions are about whether AOB will disrupt Binance.
The key node for BSC next is one: when will CZ personally buy coins, and which ones. My judgment is the likelihood of buying Mars Coin is higher—this token’s operation, chip control, and rhythm are very tight, with a market cap of 53 million not low, but short-term it has a chance to hit 100 million.
Summary: August crypto is steadily rising, but the external environment can cause sudden market downturns at any time—this is not a bad thing. If an absurd drop occurs in the next three months, it will actually be a good opportunity to build positions and accumulate chips. The hotspots are all on-chain; how long BSC and RB can last no one knows, so play along while there’s momentum, and it’s good as long as the market doesn’t completely cool off. Be patient for the market, trust the cycle, protect your principal, and don’t rush.Exclusive perspective: Starting this year, a very obvious change in the crypto space is:
Daily fluctuations are getting smaller, but the real big moves are becoming more concentrated.
ETH dropped from over 3000 to 1500, then bounced back from 1500 to 1900. The trend is significant, but on most trading days, there is almost no volatility.
The real direction is often decided in the last crucial one or two hours:
Before the weekly close, before the 5-day moving average crossover, before the 3-day moving average ends.
It can move sideways for several days, then suddenly surge or crash at the end.
What does this mean for retail investors?
You simply don’t know when it will move or which direction it will go.
You either chase the rally or panic sell.
This is exactly the rhythm that the major players love the most.
So those who still open contracts daily, frequently go long and short, and claim they can make stable profits are basically bluffing and are mostly losing money.
With this kind of market that stays still for a long time and suddenly decides direction in one or two hours, how can you compete with institutions, ETFs, and quant machines?
But from another perspective, spot trading is actually very comfortable.
ETH can fluctuate by a few dollars or even a few dimes for several days, but the big trend has already moved from 1500 to 1900.
So my principle is getting simpler:
The current crypto market is mainly about spot trading.
Most of the time, you don’t need to watch the market closely; checking once a day is enough.
The current daily volatility is even less than many stocks.
Trade less, hold the trend.
This is the gameplay most suitable for ordinary investors right now.People who are permanently bearish on this storage sector are either foolish or malicious.
Storage is in global shortage.
It’s not some worthless altcoin in the crypto world that easily crashes 99%.
This kind of global scarcity has a bottom.
At most, it might crash 50%-70% at the extreme; it has already dropped close to 50%, so the downside is extremely limited.
Generally, the market has two bottoms — a policy bottom and a market bottom.
Goldman Sachs just reiterated a buy, Samsung Hynix has locked in long-term contracts until 2027, and the South Korean government has also intervened to support the market — this is the policy bottom.
In 2015 A-shares, the government’s market rescue created a policy bottom; after the rebound, the price fell below the policy bottom, forming a market bottom. Looking back, the area between the policy bottom and market bottom was a perfect golden pit.
History won’t repeat exactly, but the similarity can be as high as 99%.
So now storage has hit the policy bottom. Even if it falls below this policy bottom later to form a market bottom — first, the correction space is limited; second, this is part of the golden pit.
Some will say: why not wait for the market bottom to buy?
Traders understand one principle — if you’re not in during the decline, you won’t be in during the rise either. This rule has never been broken for hundreds of years.
The more it falls, the more afraid people are to buy; when it rises, they chase in, always chasing highs and selling lows.
Posting daily analyses of fundamentals, technicals, and historical comparisons, the stock price will inevitably return to profitability and valuation. So far, have you seen the company deteriorate? Have you seen the fundamentals worsen?
Since not, this is an opportunity — it’s common sense.
Buy the moat, ride the bull — buy the moat, hold the long bull.
$SKHY $MU #storage #chip #techstocks #Ashares #USstocksTomorrow night at 20:30, the July Nonfarm Payroll report will directly determine the US stock market's interest rate expectations for September, and the crypto market will simultaneously face directional choices.
This data is the most important employment report after the Federal Reserve's July meeting and will directly impact US Treasury yields, the US dollar trend, and the short-term pricing of global risk assets. Previously, the ADP small nonfarm data was significantly below expectations, and the market has been pricing in a gradual cooling of employment.
Three scenarios correspond to market paths:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, with wages rising simultaneously
Hot employment data will delay rate cut expectations, pushing US Treasury yields higher. High-valuation AI tech and storage sectors will bear the brunt of the pressure, with growth stocks like MU and SNDK prone to sell-offs; Dow Jones value blue chips will be relatively resilient, leading to a clear divergence at the index level.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly, unemployment rises
The market will strengthen rate cut expectations, US Treasury yields will decline, benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware are expected to see a recovery rebound. However, a risk to watch is that excessively poor data may trigger market concerns about an economic recession, causing a short-term broad sell-off.
Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations
Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold. US stocks continue the current split pattern, with the Dow Jones relatively strong and the Nasdaq oscillating at high levels. The market returns to earnings report logic, with continued sector rotation internally.
Setting aside nonfarm payrolls, the structural judgment of the US stock market itself:
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility following earnings disconfirmation. SNDK has made a deep V-shaped reversal, but the earnings-driven downward revision in expectations has not been fully digested. Going forward, focus on whether MU’s key support can hold—holding it represents sectoral divergence repair; if it breaks down effectively, storage will enter a mid-term valuation digestion phase, and an oversold rebound should not be directly viewed as a primary uptrend.
2. Market structural divergence will continue to play out. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; companies with high profits but conservative shareholder returns and guidance will be continuously abandoned by capital. The broad rally has ended, and stock picking difficulty has clearly increased.
3. Risk points cannot be ignored. $SPCX’s massive unlocking pressure remains and will intermittently disturb the market, amplifying intraday spike volatility.
Key focus stocks:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Momentum fading, capital exiting stocks:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Market logic summary:
· $BTC — The liquidity hub of the crypto market, determining overall market heat
· $ETH — Institutional funds continuously accumulating, consolidating chips amid volatility
· $SOL — Layer1 elasticity pillar, with considerable space when the market starts
· $TAO & $WLD — AI mainline heat continues, repeatedly favored by capital
· $HYPE — Speculative sentiment gauge, judging current risk appetite
· $DOGE & $ZEC — Retail sentiment window, reflecting short-term speculative heatIn this market cycle, not every star will shine✨ Betting all your chips on the imagination that "the entire market will rise together" is often the fastest way for us to fall into passivity.🧐
The current market is not a "rain or shine" broad rally season, but more like a carefully selected rotation game🎠 Under extreme liquidity differentiation, funds will only flow to projects with compelling narratives, solid market structure, and clear catalysts; the majority of other tokens can only quietly stay put, struggling silently in an environment with scarce real trading volume.
🟢 Areas with recent noticeable capital inflows:
$JTO / $JELLY / $BTC / $OPG / $BTCSLX / $LAB / $BSB / $ALLO / $CHIP
📉 Tokens that have clearly lost momentum:
$BEAT / $EDGE / $COAI / $TRUMP / $RAVE / $SPACE / $SOPH / $IP / $AVNT / $ZAMA / $OFC / $PIEVERSE / $VIRTUAL / $ACU / $H / $MEGA
👀 Currently on my watchlist:
$MEME / $EDEN / $HUMA / $ZKP / $METIS
From the overall market structure perspective, my understanding is as follows🌿
👑 $BTC remains the core engine of liquidity in the entire system
🏛️ $ETH continues to show a steady and patient accumulation rhythm
⚡ $SOL remains the most resilient player among Layer 1s
🤖 $TAO and $WLD continue to attract attention driven by the AI narrative
📈 $HYPE is our thermometer for sensing overall risk appetite
🛍️ $DOGE and $ZEC act like a mirror, clearly reflecting retail investors' emotional fluctuations
The feeling this cycle brings me is always... In this market cycle, not every star will shine✨ Betting all your chips on the idea that "the entire market will rise together" is often the fastest way for us to fall into passivity.🧐
The current market is not a "rain and dew evenly spread" broad rally season, but more like a carefully selected rotation game🎠 Under extreme liquidity differentiation, funds will only flow to projects with compelling narratives, solid market structure, and clear catalysts; the majority of other tokens can only quietly stay put, struggling silently in an environment with scarce real trading volume.
🟢 Areas with noticeable recent capital inflows:
$JTO / $JELLY / $BTC / $OPG / $BTCSLX / $LAB / $BSB / $ALLO / $CHIP
📉 Tokens that have clearly lost momentum:
$BEAT / $EDGE / $COAI / $TRUMP / $RAVE / $SPACE / $SOPH / $IP / $AVNT / $ZAMA / $OFC / $PIEVERSE / $VIRTUAL / $ACU / $H / $MEGA
👀 Currently on my watchlist:
$MEME / $EDEN / $HUMA / $ZKP / $METIS
From the overall market structure perspective, my understanding is as follows🌿
👑 $BTC remains the core engine of liquidity in the entire system
🏛️ $ETH continues to show a steady and patient accumulation rhythm
⚡ $SOL remains the most resilient player among Layer 1s
🤖 $TAO and $WLD continue to attract attention driven by the AI narrative
📈 $HYPE is our thermometer for sensing overall risk appetite
🛍️ $DOGE and $ZEC act like a mirror, clearly reflecting retail investors' emotional fluctuations
This cycle always leaves me with these feelings.The biggest concession from the US? What does it mean for oil prices and BTC if Iran gains “port control”?
This week, if you’ve been watching oil prices and BTC, you’ve probably been dizzy.
On August 4, a single sentence from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen—"A US-Iran agreement could be reached as soon as today or tomorrow"—caused oil prices to plummet over 5% instantly. BTC rebounded accordingly, climbing back above $64,000.
The market cheered: the Strait is about to open, oil prices will fall, inflation will cool down, and the Fed will ease up.
Then what happened?
On August 5, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson poured cold water on this: the Iran-Iraq agreement "does not mean the Strait is already safe for passing vessels" because the US blockade remains.
On August 6, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Karbasian added: reaching an agreement does not mean the Strait automatically opens; the key depends on whether the US fulfills its commitments—lifting the maritime blockade, removing sanctions, and unfreezing assets.
On August 7, Brent crude returned to $83. Within one week, from $79 to $83, the market was played three times.
Between "agreement close to being reached" and "already implemented" lies the whole of Washington.
So what exactly is this agreement? Why is there so much controversy?
Reuters cited insiders: the proposed agreement would grant Iran control over ships entering the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran calls the shots for incoming ships.
Outgoing ships take the Oman route, with Oman notifying Iran before allowing passage.
This is one of the biggest concessions Iran has obtained so far.
The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. The US has clearly stated it "will never agree to Iranian control." If this step is conceded, it means the regional power balance begins to tilt toward Tehran.
But the biggest issue is not "whether to sign," but "whether it can be enforced."
Industry insiders have already issued warnings: this agreement is difficult to implement.
Why?
First, US sanctions. The US has already sanctioned the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," which Iran operates and is responsible for this waterway. Any fee collection could lead to asset freezes. The US Treasury also prohibits US personnel from accepting services provided by the Iranian government related to "ensuring safe passage."
Second, insurance clauses. The Lloyd’s Market Association introduced new terms at the end of July—if a ship pays transit fees to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, insurance coverage will be voided.
Shipping companies face a dilemma: if they don’t pay, Iran won’t allow passage; if they pay, insurance companies won’t cover them.
Iran wants to charge 5% to 7% of cargo value, Oman wants 3%, and the US wants it completely free.
All three parties talk past each other, with no concessions.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
Two scenarios, worlds apart:
Scenario 1: The agreement is truly implemented, navigation resumes.
Oil prices fall → inflation expectations cool → Fed’s rate hike pressure eases → theoretically positive for BTC and other risk assets.
Scenario 2: The agreement stalls, navigation remains blocked.
Oil prices rise → inflation expectations heat up → Fed remains hawkish → BTC under pressure.
Over the past week, the market has been trading between these two expectations repeatedly.
But the real risk is—the market is pricing in "agreement signing," while the true risk lies in "agreement execution."
What Iran actually gets—is it just a piece of paper, or control over a ship?
The outcomes are vastly different.
If it’s just paper, oil prices will fall, BTC will rise, and everything goes on as usual.
But if they really gain control—the lifeline of one-fifth of global oil in Tehran’s hands—oil prices won’t just fluctuate short-term but will be structurally repriced. Inflation won’t be a short-term disturbance but a persistent pressure. The Fed won’t just watch but will be forced to maintain a hawkish stance.
By then, BTC will face not just "geopolitical risk premium" but "macro liquidity exhaustion."
So next, don’t just watch whether the "agreement is signed."
Focus on three things:
👉 Whether the US lifts the maritime blockade—if not lifted, the agreement is worthless.
👉 Whether the Iranian parliament approves the draft—the text is under parliamentary review.
👉 Whether Lloyd’s insurance terms loosen—if not, shipping companies won’t dare to pass.
"Agreement close to being reached" does not equal "already implemented."
The market prices in "agreement signing," but the real risk is "agreement execution."
What Iran gets is either a piece of paper or control over a ship, and the outcomes are vastly different.
Oil prices moved from $79 to $83; the market was played three times in one week. How many times were you played?
$BTC $BZ $CL #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 8月6日，SpaceX迎来了上市后的第一次大规模限售股解禁。 按照公告，本次共有约9.115亿股限售股获得流通资格，对应潜在市值约1000亿美元。如此庞大的解禁规模，在上市公司历史上都属于重量级事件，因此市场普遍预计，公司股价将面临巨大的抛售压力。 然而，市场最终给出的答案却出乎所有人的意料。 解禁当天，SpaceX不仅没有出现投资者担心的"踩踏式下跌"，反而全天上涨6.14%，成交量达到2.51亿股，创下6月18日以来的新高。 为什么市场预期中的利空没有兑现？这次上涨究竟意味着风险已经解除，还是只是短期情绪修复？ 要回答这个问题，需要从市场预期、资金结构、公司基本面以及未来供需关系四个角度来看。 一、为什么解禁没有引发暴跌？ 1、最大的利空，其实已经提前反映在股价里 资本市场有一句经典的话： 市场交易的不是新闻，而是预期。 真正导致股价下跌的，往往不是利空本身，而是市场此前有没有充分预期这个利空。 SpaceX就是一个典型案例。 在解禁前一天，公司公布上市后的首份财报。虽然营收和核心业务表现超出市场预期，但由于资本开支远高于市场预测，再叠加即将到来的大规模解禁，投资者情绪The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates three times this year (according to the Bank of America CEO), hesitating on the eve of the non-farm payrolls report, with funds seeking safe havens in gold/coal/high dividend stocks...
Meanwhile, AI completely ignores interest rates: DeepSeek raises prices, Meta implements a "data tax," Alibaba takes a cut from open-source model revenue, ByteDance pours money into creating Mythos-level supermodels...
The era of free inference is officially over, and developers face a triple tax of "paying for data, paying cash, and paying for computing power"...
It’s a situation of "tightening liquidity with rate hikes in the left hand, a cash-burning arms race in the right hand, with small and medium startups squeezed in the middle, left with nothing but bones."Google is forcing financing despite soaring interest rates, and the market is already fearful of this bottomless pit of a money-burning game.
To build AI data centers, Google is preparing to borrow another $25 billion. This time, the loan interest is much higher than before, and it will take up to 40 years to repay. In the first six months of this year, they have already raised $135 billion in financing. Now big companies are crazily borrowing money to compete in computing power.
The cost of borrowing is getting higher, but the number of willing investors is decreasing. Because Google has directly doubled its upcoming spending budget to $205 billion, everyone is very scared to see such huge expenses. The giants are all engaged in an arms race, and the biggest fear is that in the end, only the equipment-selling companies will take all the profits, while the big buyers of equipment are all just holding on.
I still think Google's cash flow is very tight right now. Although they claim to have $500 billion in cloud business orders, this is just a paper number. The key is how many of these orders can actually be realized into real cash and whether the payments can be collected quickly. Before seeing the money come back, the investment risk supported by high-interest loans is extremely high.
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温
@OKX星球 cxmt/usdt
Long-term Short Logic for Changxin Technology
Core Reasons for Long-term Shorting of Changxin Technology
1. The Inevitable Strong Cycle of Memory Chips, Currently at a Peak
DRAM is a commodity with a complete 3-4 year cycle: price increase → capacity expansion → oversupply → price crash and industry losses.
The current high profits come from overseas giants controlling production combined with AI-driven price increases, not normal profitability.
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will restart general DRAM capacity expansion, combined with Changxin's own continuous expansion, leading to a significant supply release in 2027-2028. Once supply exceeds demand, DRAM prices will sharply decline in the short term, and company profits will quickly shrink from hundreds of billions to even return to losses.
In historical memory downturn cycles, overseas giants' profits have dropped by over 80%; Changxin's factory lines are newer with higher depreciation pressure, making it less resilient than the overseas top three during downturns. Management's IPO roadshow also warned: do not linearly extrapolate current high profits into the future.
2. Valuation Includes Cycle Premium + Domestic Substitution Sentiment Premium
A static PE of 30x looks not high, but this is the PE calculated at the cycle peak profit. Once profits decline, PE will be passively pushed up, leading to a Davis double whammy: performance decline + valuation collapse.
Overseas SK Hynix and Micron have PE of only 12-20x during prosperous phases; Changxin's market cap is significantly higher than overseas peers, containing a large A-share domestic substitution sentiment premium, which will face valuation reversion pressure once sentiment fades.
3. Technological Gap, Difficult to Capture AI Storage's Highest Profit Pool HBM
Most of Changxin's revenue and profit come from ordinary DDR5 and LPDDR general memory; high-margin HBM (AI high-bandwidth memory) is still in R&D with no large-scale commercial shipments.
The highest premium AI storage business is occupied by SK Hynix and Micron; Changxin mainly competes in the fierce ordinary DRAM track, with product structure shortcomings that will be further amplified during the downturn.
4. Heavy Asset Model, Continuous Huge Capital Expenditure and High Depreciation
Wafer fabs are a continuous cash-burning track, requiring constant investment for line iteration and capacity expansion. Changxin's lines are newer with huge annual equipment depreciation. If chip prices fall and capacity utilization declines, depreciation will directly erode profits. Much of the cash flow earned during the boom must be reinvested in factory iteration, making it hard to fully convert into shareholder free cash flow.
5. Unlocking Chip Supply Pressure (Complete Unlock Timeline)
Listing Base Date: 2026-07-27
1. 2027-01-27 (6 months after listing): 70% of offline placement restricted shares unlock, about 1.5 billion shares, first wave of institutional chip release.
2. 2027-07-27 (12 months after listing): social security and pension strategic placement shares unlock, about 660 million shares, long-term institutions can sell.
3. 2028-01-27 (18 months after listing): insurance funds, industrial chain strategic investors, core employee stock management plan unlock, about 465 million shares, industrial capital chip release.
4. 2028-07-27 (24 months after listing): sponsor institution follow-up shares unlock, about 230 million shares, broker follow-up portion can reduce holdings.
5. 2029-07-27 (36 months after listing, super large unlocking window): Hefei state-owned capital, Big Fund Phase II, early original shareholders, employee stock platforms large batch of old shares unlock, the largest chip supply window.
Additional Special Commitment: Founder Zhu Yiming voluntarily locks personal shares for 10 years; after major shareholders unlock, selling must comply with STAR Market new reduction rules, unlocking ≠ immediate full sell-off, but long-term chip supply increase is an objective fact. Early listing circulating shares are small, stock price is easily pushed up by funds, subsequent phased unlocking will gradually change chip supply and demand.
6. Downstream Demand Risks Falling Short of Expectations
Performance is highly tied to AI servers, PC, and mobile storage procurement. If global cloud AI capital expenditure cools and consumer electronics demand weakens, DRAM demand will directly weaken, pressuring performance.
General Principle: Never short fully at once; use phased positions, only short during the boom bubble phase, do not blindly bottom-fish short.
1. Position Building Range
- First batch trial short: stock price rebounds and stabilizes in 54-58 yuan range, sector sentiment excited, theme continues to ferment, start small position trial short;
- Second batch add short: stock price hits 62-66 yuan, market collectively bullish on perpetual memory cycle, valuation bubble further expands, increase short positions;
3. Stop-loss Setting (Most Important Short Step)
Unified hard stop-loss: 70 yuan. If stock price effectively breaks 70 yuan, it means this round of domestic substitution + AI boom sentiment is far stronger than cycle logic, short logic fails, must close all positions, no holding floating losses.
4. Take-profit Targets in Two Levels
- First take-profit: 38-41 yuan, cycle sentiment cools, valuation premium falls, can close 60% of short positions, realize most profits;
- Second take-profit: 30-33 yuan, corresponding to cycle peak and profit downward revision, close remaining positions.
5. Holding Time Frame
This is a mid-term cycle game, not overnight short-term, expected holding period 6 months;
Summary: The core short logic essentially bets on the memory cycle peaking and falling, boom period high profits unsustainable, and valuation sentiment premium reverting. But cycle turning points are hard to predict precisely, shorting is a high-risk operation.$OKB I noticed a pattern: every time it rises, Lao Xu lowers OKB's popularity ranking by a few spots one or two days in advance. A few days ago, it was ranked 8th in popularity, and today it dropped directly to 13th, then it shot up with a big green candlestick. It has always been like this before. 一、真正值得关注的，不是利空，而是利空为什么失效 2026年8月6日美股盘后，闪迪（Sandisk）与西部数据（Western Digital）同步公布2026财年第四季度财报。 从财务数据来看，两家公司交出的成绩单实际上远超市场此前预期。 其中，闪迪实现营收89.65亿美元，同比增长372%，环比增长51%；毛利率、经营利润及自由现金流均创下近年来新高，超过三分之二的收入增长来自ASP（平均销售价格）提升，而非单纯依赖出货量增长，说明本轮盈利改善主要来自行业供需格局优化，而不是价格战后的短暂反弹。 西部数据同样表现强劲，实现营收37.47亿美元，同比增长44%，毛利率继续维持高位，自由现金流保持健康，企业级SSD业务继续贡献主要利润来源。 然而，市场关注点却集中在管理层给出的下一季度营收指引。 由于闪迪预计下一季度营收约105.5亿美元，仅略低于市场此前极度乐观的预测；西部数据虽然给出的指引甚至略高于市场一致预期，却依然遭遇资金集中抛售。 开盘后，整个存储板块出现剧烈下跌。 闪迪盘中最低跌至116.7美元，西部数据最低跌至40.8美元，美光、希捷同步跳水，整个SOXX、SMH半Everyone, the US dollar has shown some movement these past two days, posting its strongest single-day performance in nearly two weeks.
Is the market starting to bet on the dollar again?
On the surface, this rally reflects the market readjusting its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. US Treasury yields have risen, coupled with a return of safe-haven funds into the dollar, pushing the dollar index above 103.80 and hitting a two-week high. Non-US currencies are generally under pressure; the yen fell 0.7%, the pound dropped 0.6%, and the euro also weakened slightly.
Previously, the logic was that rising rate cut expectations led to falling Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. Now, it has shifted to delayed rate cuts, longer-lasting interest rates, rising Treasury yields, and a dollar rebound. The market has moved from betting on rapid rate cuts to betting that rate cuts won’t come as quickly.
However, my view is that this move looks more like a short-term correction and cannot yet be defined as a new strong cycle for the dollar. The next two factors will determine the trend. First is employment data: if the US economy continues to show resilience, rate cut expectations will further decline, and the dollar may continue to strengthen. Second is inflation trends: if inflation keeps falling, the Fed will have room to cut rates, which will limit the dollar’s rebound.
The dollar has short-term support but remains influenced in the long term by the rate cut cycle and fiscal pressures. For the crypto space, a stronger dollar usually suppresses BTC and high-valuation tech stocks. But if the rate cut narrative heats up again later, funds may flow back into risk assets.
What the market is trading now is not just the dollar’s rise or fall, but what the Fed’s next move will be. What do you think about this dollar rebound—is it a short-term correction or a signal of a trend reversal? Share your judgment in the comments. Wishing everyone smooth trading today. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $SNDK Why did the stock drop despite beating expectations? And is the storage industry already oversupplied?
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
Let's start with the conclusion:
Currently, SanDisk's decline is more due to "expectations being too high" rather than "the industry collapsing."
The storage industry does not show obvious overcapacity for now; on the contrary, storage related to AI servers remains tight.
Why did the stock drop despite beating expectations?
The capital market focuses on:
Future expectations > Current performance
This time SanDisk's earnings report was actually very strong:
* Revenue exceeded expectations
* AI data center revenue surged
* Profit exceeded expectations
* Long-term orders continue to increase
But the market still sold off mainly because:
1. The stock price had risen too much in advance
Since 2026, SanDisk has already increased several times.
Many institutions' logic is:
It's not about how good you are, but whether you are better than expected.
Result:
* Good earnings report
* But not "especially explosive"
So funds took profits.
2. Guidance did not meet the most optimistic expectations
The market originally expected:
* NAND prices to continue to rise crazily
* Gross margin to keep improving
But the company's future guidance is relatively conservative:
* Revenue forecast slightly below some Wall Street expectations
* Gross margin growth starts to slow
So the market interprets this as:
The craziest times may be almost over.
3. Overall valuation of the AI sector is starting to compress
Recently, not only SanDisk fell:
* Western Digital fell
* $MU fell
* $SKHYNIX fell
The entire storage sector is adjusting together.
This looks more like:
Sector adjustment
Rather than a company crash.
So is storage already oversupplied?
My judgment:
Consumer electronics NAND
Is somewhat close to supply-demand balance.
Because:
* Limited growth in mobile phones
* Limited growth in PCs
This part is indeed not as strong as before.
AI server storage
Still relatively tight currently.
Reason:
AI data centers require:
* SSD
* NAND
* HBM
* DRAM
Demand far exceeds the traditional era.
SanDisk management previously even stated:
The storage market may remain in a supply-tight state for a relatively long time in the future.
The truly dangerous future time point
If:
1. Samsung expands production
2. Hynix expands production
3. Micron expands production
4. China's Changcun massively increases supply
And AI demand growth slows down
Then:
2027-2028 may re-enter:
Storage oversupply → Price crash → Downward cycle
This is a recurring event in the history of the storage industry.
However, based on current public information, institutions generally still believe supply will be tight in 2026-2027.
What is the outlook for SanDisk's stock price?
Short term:
* May enter a valuation digestion period after the earnings report
* Continued volatility or even a 10%-20% pullback is normal
Medium to long term:
If AI data center demand continues to grow:
* SanDisk
* Micron
* Hynix
Will still be beneficiaries of this round of AI infrastructure.
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Breaking news! Positive or not?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the Nonfarm Payrolls will be released, and the US stock market is about to face a critical choice.
At 20:30 this Friday night, the July Nonfarm Employment Report will be released. This is the most important employment data after the Federal Reserve's July rate meeting and will directly rewrite the September interest rate expectations. All assets including US stocks, US bonds, and crypto will be affected.
Previously, the ADP small nonfarm data was significantly below expectations, which has already served as a warning to the market. The market is betting on a gradual cooling of employment.
Three data scenarios and their corresponding US stock market trends:
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected, wages rise simultaneously
Employment is hot, delaying rate cut expectations, US bond yields rise. High-valuation AI tech and storage sectors bear the heaviest pressure; growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow Jones value blue chips are relatively resilient, leading to a differentiated market.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker, unemployment rate rises
The market will strengthen rate cut expectations, US bond yields fall, benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware may see a recovery rebound. But beware of a risk: data too poor may trigger market concerns about economic recession, causing a short-term broad sell-off.
Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations
Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold. US stocks continue the current split pattern, Dow Jones is relatively strong, Nasdaq fluctuates at high levels, and the market returns to earnings report logic with continued sector rotation.
Putting aside Nonfarm, the upcoming US market outlook:
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility after earnings disproof. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the earnings-driven expectation downgrade issue has not completely disappeared. The key focus is whether MU's critical support can hold; if it holds, it represents sectoral differentiated recovery; if it breaks down effectively, this round of storage market will enter mid-term valuation digestion. Do not mistake the oversold rebound for a new main upward wave.
2. Market structural differentiation will continue. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally is over, making stock picking more difficult.
3. Risks still cannot be ignored. The huge unlocking pressure of $SPCX remains and will occasionally disturb the market, amplifying intraday spike volatility.
Key stocks to watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with fading momentum and capital outflows:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity hub of the crypto market, determining the overall market heat level
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to accumulate, slowly consolidating chips through fluctuations
$SOL — The resilient player in the Layer1 track, with considerable upside when the market starts
$TAO & $WLD — AI mainline heat continues, repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — Market speculation sentiment gauge, used to judge current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail sentiment window, directly reflecting short-term speculative heat Rate cuts do not necessarily mean BTC will rise.
One of the most common linear logics in the crypto market:
Fed rate cut → improved liquidity → BTC rises.
But history doesn’t follow this path.
In 2019, the Federal Reserve cut rates three times consecutively, and QT ended in August, yet BTC had already peaked in June and then weakened continuously.
So what really matters is never whether rates are cut or not, but:
Why the Fed cuts rates.
If it’s a preventive rate cut due to easing inflation and a still healthy economy, of course it’s good for risk assets.
But if the rate cut corresponds to economic downturn, credit contraction, and worsening risk appetite, then lower rates cannot immediately offset fundamental pressures.
This is why I think 2019 is highly relevant as a reference for now.
There are several similarities between 2019 and the previous BTC peak:
The Fed entered a rate-cutting phase, QT was nearing its end, but BTC peaked early; the market did not experience a traditional full altcoin season, and BTC Dominance remained strong.
This indicates one thing:
Monetary policy easing can happen during a Bitcoin bear market.
Even when the Fed starts cutting rates, the market may not have completed its final clearing.
$BTC $ETH
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ $USDC #Circle #USDC #稳定币 #机器经济 Circle's latest financial report reveals a set of extremely abnormal data. During Q2, USDC's on-chain trading volume surged to $14.8 trillion, soaring 151% year-on-year; However, during the same cycle, the total circulating supply of USDC increased by only 19%. Trading volume surged 151%, while circulating supply only increased by 19%. This huge gap means USDC's currency turnover rate has exploded completely. It has moved beyond the speculative market fluctuations of crypto asset cycles and is used by traditional giants like Bank of New York and BlackRock as the underlying artery for institutional clearing and cross-border settlement. But this is only the short-term surface logic; the real endgame narrative is the machine economy. In the future, the internet is shifting from serving people to serving machines. Billions of physical devices and hundreds of millions of AI agents operate automatically around the clock, purchasing computing power and exchanging resources, generating massive micropayments every second. Machines cannot open traditional bank accounts; the ACH account opening process is complicated, and the 2-3% credit card transaction fee directly paralyzes the machine economy at its root. Machine algorithms control budgets and require absolutely stable pricing targets. BTC and ETH have huge price fluctuations and are not suitable for such settlement tasks. Under the zero trust architecture, configuring native smart contract wallets for each AI Agent and relying on USDC to complete millisecond-level, frictionless micropayments is currently the most feasible engineering solution. 💡 Market Thinking PerspectiveI remember seeing an interview with CZ last year (or even earlier), where he mentioned that 2026 would kick off a crypto super cycle. At the time, I thought it was a bit far-fetched, but then I reconsidered—after all, he’s selling shovels and has always said he focuses on building the ecosystem, not speculating on coins.
These days, I came across an interview with Grantham again, which really struck a chord.
He once said:
"Those who tell the truth often don’t live to see the crash."
Since 1929, 1972, 2000... Wall Street has experienced countless bubbles, but almost no major institution openly tells clients: "Get out of the market."
It’s not that they don’t see it, but their entire business model makes it very difficult to say that.
Grantham once conducted a survey at an analyst conference: about 400 professional analysts were present, and 99% believed the market would eventually enter a bear market. Yet, none of their companies publicly expressed this view.
The reason is very practical.
If you warn about risks too early and the market keeps rising, clients will leave you first, not the market.
He himself experienced this: because he was bearish more than two years in advance, his business was almost halved.
Keynes’ saying might be the best summary of this phenomenon:
"You can be wrong with everyone, but never be right alone."
Then I think about AI.
Grantham said it’s one of the biggest bubbles in history, while Jensen Huang says there’s no bubble in computing power and demand is far from reaching its end.
I don’t think Jensen Huang is lying.
It’s just that from his position, it’s almost impossible to say otherwise.
NVIDIA’s valuation, clients, capital expenditures, and the entire industry chain are all built on the premise that this computing power race will continue.
So many times, a person’s viewpoint is not just cognition but also identity.
Looking back at myself these past two years, I do feel a bit like a big fool.
Constantly warning about risks, constantly writing that cash is king.
Personally, I did avoid many big pitfalls, and my assets not only didn’t shrink but actually grew.
But externally, the feeling is not as good as during the 2022 bear market when everyone lost, retraced, and endured together.
Because in a downtrend, warning about risks is called professionalism. In an uptrend, warning about risks is only understood as missing out, being timid, or bearish.
If you’re right early but the market doesn’t fall, you’re wrong. When the market really falls, most people won’t remember you warned them—they might regret not listening to me back then.
But the fact has happened, and they can only be busy dealing with their losses, mindset, and the various problems reality throws at them.
Still stuck but persisting requires faith, searching everywhere for useful market information to recharge oneself. Looking back at my “cash is king” stance probably feels even more uncomfortable psychologically.
More realistically, those truly willing to listen to risk don’t need you to remind them repeatedly. Those who don’t listen won’t change their positions no matter what you say.
In the end, you bear the pressure of expressing risk, while others continue to enjoy the rising market sentiment.
Now I realize that publicly warning about risks long-term is a very low cost-performance, even thankless task.
Shovel sellers must talk about super cycles, chip holders must be optimistic long-term, and platforms that make money from trading volume can’t advise users to exit.
Only those without vested interests can say unpleasant truths.
But the problem is, truth-tellers have no commercial rewards and instead must bear ridicule, doubt, and pressure when the market keeps rising.
I guess this is my first and last time doing this.
From now on, it’s an eternal bull market.
The answer is to hold long-term, the answer is to be optimistic long-term.
Find ways to collect some management fees, earn some commissions, and provide emotional value to everyone.
Win hearts and profits.
Isn’t that beautiful? Isn’t that joyful? On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips
Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction."
In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once.
Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence.
The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive.
Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation.
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes:
1. Employment data significantly strengthens
The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes.
2. Employment data significantly weakens
Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls.
3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot
This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation.
Practical advice for ordinary traders
① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges.
② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle.
③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform.
Personal market thoughts:
🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment
🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern
🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention
📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment
💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS$BTC # Storage stocks fell after earnings reports, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Major storage manufacturers delivered record-breaking earnings reports, yet their stock prices collectively declined. The essence is not a collapse in AI memory demand, but rather **profit-taking and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears under high expectations**. The stock prices had already fully priced in the benefits of HBM price increases and AI computing power expansion. The market is no longer satisfied with year-over-year earnings growth and has started to trade on "whether profits can continue to exceed expectations." Once guidance becomes conservative, capital chooses to take profits.
Short-term risks are clearly visible: major manufacturers are accelerating HBM capacity expansion, supplier structures are becoming more diversified, and ultra-high gross margins are difficult to maintain permanently; cloud vendors' capital expenditures are marginally contracting, consumer storage demand remains weak, and the price increase slope has clearly slowed. At the same time, the rise of domestic storage forces is reshaping the global supply landscape, intensifying market concerns about future supply and demand.
However, the underlying logic of AI memory in the medium to long term has not been completely broken. AI training and inference continue to drive rigid demand for HBM, leading cloud vendors maintain long-term locked orders, and advanced HBM yield bottlenecks constrain the pace of supply release. This round looks more like a valuation correction in the middle of a super cycle rather than a direct end to the bull market. Going forward, focus on tracking HBM pricing and cloud vendors' capital expenditure guidance to distinguish short-term stock price fluctuations from the real industry prosperity. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？