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To put it simply, the money burning on AI computing power has gradually shifted from chip design to the memory and storage supply chain. SK Hynix and Samsung are both pushing new standards, NVIDIA's computing power demand is still rising, but the real issue is who will feed data to large models and who will handle the explosive memory growth during training.
1) A few words about the market
SK Hynix just released the HBF standard at FMS 2026, debuting it jointly with SanDisk, clearly defining AI memory solutions. This shows that HBM is not just a concept but has standards and product pathways. Samsung is also developing a mobile wallet as a digital asset gateway; although not directly related, it reflects its increasing penetration in infrastructure.
2) What happened today
SK Hynix released the HBF standard, the first public definition of AI-specific memory specifications; Blackstone plans to raise $36 billion in debt for Anthropic to purchase Google AI chips, showing AI companies are leveraging large financing to directly drive computing resources; Samsung plans to turn 800 million Galaxy phones into digital asset wallets, potentially driving infrastructure upgrades in underlying payment channels.
3) My understanding
The positive side is that the implementation of the HBM standard means the storage side is beginning to form replicable industry norms. The collaboration between SK Hynix and Samsung may bring capacity release and reduce downstream AI vendors' selection risks. The trouble is that financing is still concentrated on AI companies rather than storage manufacturers. Core suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have yet to see clear capital expenditure guidance, and the pace of capacity expansion still awaits official confirmation. If AI training demand continues to grow rapidly, the supply-demand gap for HBM may widen, but whether existing capacity can keep up remains to be verified.
4) Don't miss what's next
This is for informational and market scenario analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.#BTCSecurityAlliance
Today's BTC on-chain data is out: the total on-chain transaction volume in 24 hours is 236,499 BTC, of which short-term chips moved 201,712 BTC, and long-term holders only moved 34,750 BTC, with the long-term proportion remaining at just 14.7%. This ratio is like the lowest core sample in an archaeological stratum, coldly telling you—the old bones have no intention of turning over. The current BTC price is reported at $64,389, and the on-chain sentiment is marked as BEARISH. Looking at the behavior difference between short-term and long-term holders, the short-term chip proportion is as high as 85.3%, almost all shifting sands in motion, while the true cornerstone remains unmoved. Combined with the Realized Profit situation, the recent profit-taking selling pressure mainly comes from those "new burial items" just dug out from underground, not the bronze artifacts buried for millennia. The main turnover force is concentrated in short-term holdings, indicating this drop is tomb raiders panic-selling the newly found bright artifacts, not the tomb itself collapsing.
My view: This set of data before me is like the soil color brought out by a Luoyang shovel, the surface is all loose backfill soil, and underneath is dense tamped earth. The long-term proportion of 14.7% is quite critical—historical cycle laws show that every time the long-term chip proportion falls close to or below 15%, it often corresponds to the end of a "civilization collapse" style panic sell-off, or at least a phase bottom in the tomb passage. Now BTC price is stuck at $64,389, with short-term trading volume nearly 6 times that of long-term, a typical "compass failure" state: the market is dominated by speculators holding treasure maps but unable to read ancient scripts, who flee at the slightest hint, leaving the true tomb robbers calmly dividing gold and fixing burial spots in the ruins.
My judgment: short-term volatility is bearish, but there is archaeological-level support below. The $64,000 level is like the entrance to an underground palace, seemingly full of quicksand traps on the surface, but actually pressing down on stone coffins and golden masks underneath. Focus on two key price levels: the first support at $63,500, a recent dense turnover zone, like hidden traps in the tomb passage, which if broken may trigger a secondary bottom; the second support near $61,800, a long-term chip accumulation area, likely guarded by Pharaoh-level buy orders. On the rebound, if the price closes above $65,200 intraday, it means short-term selling pressure has been weathered away; otherwise, watch the dust continue to fall.
Operationally, I do not recommend chasing those short-term chips repeatedly flipped by tomb raiders. The real opportunity lies in those bottom ranges abandoned by the market but carbon-14 dating shows are genuine antiques. Remember, when all burial items are put up for black market auction and everyone says they are fake antiques, it often means the archaeological team’s formal excavation is not far off. This round of BEARISH sentiment may only be a thin epitaph; the real content is still buried in the soil. Don’t let the mummy’s curse scare you away, but don’t rush to stick the Luoyang shovel into a still-smoking tomb hole either. Wait for the compass to point north again, then see who is truly the forgotten empire’s rightful owner.The earnings report is out, not bad, but good news released equals bad news, I still continue to watch the unlock and remain bearish on SpaceX $SPCX .
This morning as soon as I woke up, I immediately went through SpaceX's first earnings report since going public.
To be honest, looking solely at the operating data, this earnings report is not bad, it can even be said to have clearly exceeded market expectations:
1️⃣ Revenue reached $7.8 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, higher than the market expectation of about $6.9 billion;
2️⃣ Operating loss narrowed from $970 million in the same period last year to $143 million;
3️⃣ Starlink revenue grew 66% year-over-year, still SpaceX's most stable profit source;
4️⃣ AI business revenue grew nearly 250% year-over-year, indicating this part of the business is no longer just a story but is starting to generate real income.
Of course, the problems are also very obvious 😂
SpaceX's capital expenditure for one quarter has already exceeded $18 billion, with AI-related capital expenditure reaching $15.8 billion, and management expects similar investment levels to continue for the next few quarters.
In other words, SpaceX's business growth is indeed very fast now, but the burn rate is also extremely exaggerated.
However, compared to the numbers in the earnings report, I think the stock price reaction is more worth studying.
Before the earnings release, $SPCX intraday once rose to $130.49, closing up 9.4%, directly blowing up many who shorted early.
But after the earnings release, the stock price only briefly rose, then quickly fell back, and as of my writing, it has dropped to around $117, back below $120, with nearly half of the gains from the previous two trading days given back.
This actually indicates something very interesting:
The rise before the earnings report was more like a concentrated short squeeze after short positions became too crowded, rather than the market truly re-recognizing SpaceX's current valuation.
Because this earnings report already delivered 92% revenue growth and a significantly narrowed operating loss, yet still couldn't hold the stock price at $130, not even $120.
So the real problem comes next:
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of restricted shares will officially enter the unlocking window, with up to about 911.5 million shares held by employees, insiders, and early investors becoming eligible for sale.
What does this number mean?
It doesn't mean all 911.5 million shares will be sold on the same day, but the unlocking scale already exceeds the current market float itself. Previously, there were very few shares available for trading, so a little capital could push the stock price up; after unlocking, the supply structure will be completely different.
This is also why I have always believed that SpaceX's biggest risk at this stage is not whether the company has value, nor whether Starlink can grow in the future, but:
Whether the current valuation can hold up against the continuously released shares.
SpaceX is certainly a very excellent company, and Starlink, Starship, and AI all have huge potential.
But a good company does not mean any price is without risk.
Now even a clearly better-than-expected earnings report can only push the stock price intraday to $130, then fall back below $120.
If this trend continues, once large-scale unlocking truly arrives and early investors and employees start cashing out, the market will no longer face the question of "whether anyone is optimistic about SpaceX," but "how much new capital is needed to absorb these shares."
So my view remains unchanged for now:
The earnings report can continue to be studied, SpaceX can be followed long-term, but until the unlocking pressure is fully released, I will continue to be bearish based on the unlocking logic.
The earnings report proves SpaceX's business is indeed good.
The stock price proves that no matter how good the business is, it may not withstand an excessively high valuation and a sudden increase in supply.
In summary, continue to be bearish...
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ WEMIX, once a star public chain in gaming, is clearly seeing capital outflows today, with a very weak trend. If you're a new investor, this name might not ring a bell, but veteran players definitely remember—back when blockchain games were booming a couple of years ago, WEMIX was shining brightly, claiming to build a gaming metaverse that would take on traditional gaming giants and challenge Ethereum. So what happened? The hype around blockchain games was like a summer shower—intense but fleeting. The entire GameFi sector is now so cold it could be used as a refrigerator, and naturally, WEMIX has been sidelined by the market. The core issue is simple: no breakout hit game. The lifeline of blockchain gaming is straightforward and blunt—you must launch a truly fun, breakout hit game. Not those "pseudo-games" where you just click, mine, or trade tokens, but games where players are willing to spend time, recharge, and play purely for enjoyment. Axie had its moment of fame, but it was essentially a financial game; once the novelty wore off, it collapsed. Since then, various blockchain games have come and gone, but none have truly broken out. Without a breakout hit, there are no users. Without users, on-chain activity is just empty talk. If on-chain activity can't pick up, what supports the valuation of the public chain? Investors aren't foolish; seeing the whole sector fail to deliver results, they naturally vote with their feet and exit. Don't think a big drop is an opportunity. The GameFi sector faces a harsh reality: an extremely high failure rate. Nine out of ten blockchain game projects die, and the remaining one barely survives. This isn't a problem with any single project; the entire sector's business model hasn't been proven yet. Traditional gaming playsOn August 5th, trader Ouyang Zhuabai shared his view: SpaceX will face a peak in share unlocking from August to November, with the circulating shares soaring from 640 million to 5.2 billion, mostly coming from employee holdings, making the selling pressure significant.
He believes that regardless of the long-term fundamentals, the stock price is unlikely to surge in the next six months; institutional holdings will unlock in the first half of next year but in smaller volumes, and Musk's 52% stake won't unlock until June 2027, so short-term selling willingness is weak.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
$ETH $SNDK $BTC Two hours ago, it was a race at both ends of the range, but now the bears have taken a step back: Killa saw the initial rejection quickly bought back and has closed the short position at the entry price, waiting for a higher level to make further judgments.
dr-profit is continuously accumulating $BTC on the downside in 5% increments, but he also considers the weekly close at 65.4K as the real condition to open up the upper space. imJupiter is more cautious: 64.3K is just the bull-bear dividing line; only a weekly break above 67.3K followed by a non-breaching pullback will be considered a right-side swing long.
Overall judgment: short-selling pressure is weakening, but the bulls have not yet confirmed the trend. If $BTC holds above 65.4K on the weekly chart, the upper range will shift from resistance to support testing; if it falls below 64.3K, Killa's exit looks more like a temporary retreat rather than a reversal. High-leverage $ETH, $HYPE, and small coins lacking official catalysts are not considered opportunities in this round.
Will you wait for weekly confirmation to follow, or continue to defend in the resistance zone?
This is only a viewpoint and information summary, not investment advice On-chain monitoring: SpaceX earnings report boost only extends life by 15 minutes, chasing whales flee 66% of positions, stock price valuation dominated by unlocking expectations.
Although the earnings data exceeded expectations, the market had already anticipated it, soaring then quickly plunging, with a 24-hour increase remaining only 1.5%.
The market volume expands to deleverage, funding rates turn negative; most of the seven million-dollar long positions exit, both longs and shorts reduce positions to realize profits.
Whale buying range shifts down to $105‑110.5, market focus awaits the actual selling pressure from the August 6 stock unlocking.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
$ETH $SNDK #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
1. Q2 Earnings: Revenue and EBITDA Far Exceed Expectations, but AI Spending Scares the Market
SpaceX $SPCX released its first quarterly earnings report since going public after market close on August 4.
By business segment:
Connectivity (Starlink): Revenue of $4.29 billion, up 66% year-over-year, operating profit of $1.66 billion, the only profitable segment; Starlink users reached 12 million, doubling year-over-year.
AI Business: Revenue of $2.56 billion, up 247% year-over-year, operating loss of $1.26 billion (narrowed 49% quarter-over-quarter), adjusted EBITDA achieved a positive $1.146 billion.
Aerospace Business: Revenue of $962 million, up 29% year-over-year, but operating loss of $542 million, a 47% increase year-over-year.
The issue lies in capital expenditures—Q2 capex reached $18.4 billion, with $15.8 billion invested in AI infrastructure, far exceeding analyst expectations. The company also expects Q3 and Q4 capex to be roughly the same as Q2, implying annual capex will far exceed $45 billion.
2. Why Did the Stock Price Plunge Despite "Beating Expectations"?
Before the earnings release, SpaceX surged 9.43% on Tuesday to close at $125.33; after the earnings release, it plunged nearly 9% in after-hours trading, finally falling about 6.5% to around $117.
Three core reasons:
AI spending black hole concerns: $15.8 billion quarterly AI capex is more than twice the annual revenue. The market worries about when this spending pace will yield returns.
Raised "beat expectations" bar under high valuation: Revenue beats alone no longer satisfy the market; investors want a combination of "beat expectations + reasonable spending."
Lock-up expiration looming: The earnings report is just the appetizer; the real test comes in two days.
3. Lock-up Expiration: $100 Billion Selling Pressure Incoming
On August 6 (this Thursday), SpaceX's first insider lock-up period since going public will officially expire.
Lock-up details:
Approximately 911 million shares unlocking
Market value of unlocking shares about $100-125 billion
Tradable float increases from about 5% to about 12%
Musk's holdings remain locked until mid-2027, not participating in this unlock
Currently, SpaceX's tradable float is only about 5% of total shares; after unlocking, the float will more than double. Many early employees and investors will have their first chance to cash out. Regardless of earnings quality, potential selling pressure is real.
4. Wall Street Sentiment: Rare Bull-Bear Split
Bulls: Among 25-30 institutions covering SpaceX, about 27 have "buy" ratings, with an average target price around $236-$239, implying over 100% upside from current price. Morgan Stanley maintains a $300 target, believing the market undervalues the AI business—its valuation model assigns $152 per share to enterprise AI business, over half of total valuation. Deutsche Bank also reiterated "buy" with a $255 target before earnings.
Bears: Short positions account for 34%-35% of tradable float, valued at about $24.6-$26 billion. Shorts have realized about $7.3 billion in profits since IPO and continue to add positions against the trend. Their logic: high valuation + massive spending + lock-up selling pressure = further stock price decline.
This rare combination of "unanimous sell-side optimism and unanimous short-side buildup" indicates serious market disagreement on SpaceX's pricing mechanism.
5. What’s Next?
Short-term focus (next 1-2 weeks):
The actual selling volume after the August 6 lock-up expiration is the key variable. Unlocking 911 million shares does not mean all will be sold, but even if only 10%-20% is sold, that’s $10-$20 billion in selling pressure, which could heavily impact the currently very illiquid market. Options implied volatility has surged to 148.7%, far above the historical average of 74.9%, indicating market expects intense volatility.
Mid-term focus (next few quarters):
Starlink user growth: Currently 12 million users, doubled year-over-year, but whether quarter-over-quarter growth can be maintained is key.
Starship commercialization progress: On July 24, Starship’s 13th test flight successfully deployed satellites and returned, considered a major milestone. Bernstein views Starship as the core element for SpaceX to justify its valuation.
AI business breakeven point: AI business has achieved positive adjusted EBITDA but still operates at a $1.26 billion loss; when it turns profitable at the operating level is key for long-term valuation.
Core contradiction
SpaceX’s fundamentals are indeed improving—revenue doubling, losses narrowing, solid Starlink profitability, explosive AI revenue growth. But valuation and capital structure impose short-term pressure—stock price has halved from historical highs, lock-up peak is imminent, and heavy short positions loom.
This is a battle between fundamental improvement and short-term liquidity shock. The earnings report has proven the former, but the latter will determine the stock’s short-term direction in the coming days. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
1. Financial Report Highlights: The Positive Side
1. Starlink (Connectivity Business) is the Only Cash Cow
Q2 revenue was $4.29 billion (up 66% YoY), operating profit $1.66 billion, with explosive enterprise and government orders, securing a large US government Starshield contract; 12 million subscribers, doubling YoY, B2B growth far outpaces B2C, solid cash generation capability, forming the core foundation of the entire group.
2. Overall Revenue Significantly Exceeded Expectations
Total revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% YoY, adjusted EBITDA $3.5 billion, far exceeding Wall Street expectations; net loss narrowed significantly to $541 million from $1 billion in the same period last year.
3. AI Business Loss Reduction Exceeded Expectations
AI segment revenue was $2.56 billion, loss $1.26 billion, loss magnitude far below market pessimistic estimates, with high revenue growth, proving progress in commercialization.
2. The Negative Side, Market Concerns
1. Two Major Businesses Continue to Burn Cash
Space launch business (Starship R&D) operating loss of $542 million; AI segment still incurs large losses. These two cash-burning segments consume most of Starlink’s profits, the group overall remains unprofitable.
2. Capital Expenditure Soars
Q2 capital expenditure was $18.37 billion, a sharp increase quarter-over-quarter; management clearly states that high capital investment will continue for multiple future quarters. The cash burn pace will not slow down in the short term, cash flow pressure persists.
3. High Uncertainty in Starship Commercialization
Starship is still in repeated test flight stages; it is the foundation of the long-term story: determining the cost of large-scale Starlink V3 deployment and the ceiling of space business. Any test flight delays or increased accidents will directly damage valuation logic.
3. Major Event: Massive Unlocking Scheduled for August 6
- First batch unlocking: 911.5 million shares, corresponding to a market value in the hundreds of billions, new supply exceeding the entire current float.
- Source: Early investors and employee holdings, original cost extremely low; even though the current stock price has halved, there is still multiple times profit, creating strong motivation to cash out.
- Rules: This is only the first round; subsequent staggered unlocking will continue until December; Elon Musk’s own shares are locked until 2027-06-12 and are not included in this unlocking.
- Pre-market situation: stock price has fallen sharply from the peak, partially trading ahead of unlocking panic; short interest accounts for about 34% of the float, making the long-short battle extremely intense #财报观察员：Mixed earnings, lock-up expiration approaching! What’s next for SpaceX?
I’m Brother Ci. SpaceX’s first earnings report is out, with core metrics better than expected, AI business losses narrowing stronger than expected, but AI capital expenditures higher than expected. The stock price turned down after hours.
The earnings themselves aren’t bad; what’s bad is tomorrow’s lock-up expiration.
The performance itself isn’t bad, but the market chose to sell after the earnings report, indicating that funds are preemptively avoiding tomorrow’s $100 billion lock-up expiration. About 911.5 million shares will be unlocked on August 6, accounting for 20% of the total unlockable shares. At $110 per share, that’s over $100 billion, exceeding the current public float. Good earnings but high capital expenditures, combined with the pressure of the $100 billion lock-up expiration, lead funds to choose to exit first.
Impact on SanDisk
SpaceX’s stock turned down after hours, AMD dropped over 9%, Palantir rose nearly 30% as an exception. Tech stocks are internally diverging, with those delivering earnings rising and those with high capital expenditures falling. SanDisk’s earnings report is imminent, and market expectations are already very high. If capital expenditure guidance also exceeds expectations, it may replicate SpaceX’s trend. The storage sector has risen significantly recently, so it’s advisable not to hold heavy positions before the earnings report.
What’s next?
At this position, SpaceX faces real short-term lock-up pressure. But lock-up expiration doesn’t mean all shares will be sold; the founder’s shares are locked until 2027, and early investors and employees are the main sources of selling pressure. The stock price is already nearly 20% below the IPO price. How many are willing to sell at this level is the biggest variable tomorrow.
Brother Ci is done. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SPCX The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, and the geopolitical premium is rapidly being drained.
Several pieces of news have come in succession:
· Bassent publicly stated: An agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as tomorrow;
· Rubio followed up confirming: Negotiations have indeed made progress, Iran's stance has clearly softened, and they are considering allowing European vessels to enter the strait to participate in mine-clearing operations;
· The market reacted extremely quickly: WTI crude oil plunged 5% intraday, directly falling back to $74.66; European stocks Stoxx600 followed suit, hitting a new high since July.
With this oil price crash, the previously repeatedly traded logic chain of "war → oil price surge → inflation rise → interest rate hikes cannot stop" has suddenly loosened significantly. Half a month ago, the biggest worry was that energy prices would push inflation up again, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a tough stance. Now, this biggest upside risk is being dismantled one by one—risk assets collectively breathe a sigh of relief: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6%, Intel rose over 10% in a single day.
But in the entire market, only one player is still "playing dead": crypto.
Bitcoin stubbornly clings near $64,000; when risk assets rise, it does not follow, but when they fall, it follows without hesitation. This "follow the drop but not the rise" divergence is precisely the most important signal to watch right now—the macro narrative is already friendly enough to the bulls, but the price has yet to catch this "good news."
Don't rush to translate macro improvements into buying reasons. Logic is one thing, market acceptance is another.
Wait for BTC to show a clear direction on its own before discussing whether to follow or not. For now, let the price speak first.
Let's watch and see 🧊#SpaceX's first earnings report exceeds expectations, but unlocking remains a key variable
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. SpaceX's first earnings report is indeed strong: Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA doubled to $3.5 billion, Starlink users surged to 12 million, single segment operating profit of $1.66 billion, and AI losses narrower than expected—fundamentals are solid.
But after-hours it dropped over 8%. The market is voting with its feet not on performance, but on tomorrow (August 6) — the hurdle of the first batch unlocking 911.5 million shares, valued at about $109.2 billion, larger than the current float. Employees and early VCs have costs at rock bottom, so it's human nature to cash out on highs.
From a mid-term perspective, my logic on Starlink's cash flow plus Starship options remains unchanged, but short-term supply and demand are distorted by the unlocking: the better the earnings, the more respectable the insiders' selling price, and the heavier the selling pressure.
First, let the unlocking flood pass, and observe the support thickness below $110; don't catch a falling knife;
Wait for chip turnover to settle and the rhythm of the second unlocking to become clear before deciding mid-term positions. Earnings are the trump card, unlocking is the dealer at the table.
$SPCX August hasn't opened with the heavy sell-off many were expecting.
But if history is any guide, the bigger picture is more nuanced.
During past bear market cycles, $BTC has often shown resilience in the first half of August, occasionally pushing to new local highs before momentum faded. The second half of the month has historically been far more challenging, with weakness becoming more pronounced.
Of course, history doesn't guarantee the same outcome—but it does remind us to stay disciplined, manage risk, and avoid chasing late rallies.
Patience often pays more than FOMO.
#SpaceXBeatEstimates
#AMDBeatsButDrops The EIP-8363 draft was just released, and the community exploded. The core is simple: once the staking rate reaches the 50% threshold, nodes' consensus layer returns are directly discounted. This is not a suggestion, but a hard cut to the protocol layer. What does this mean? Currently, over 40% of $ETH across the entire network are honestly lying on the Beacon Chain to earn interest. Yesterday, the Dune panel showed that the staking annualized rate had quietly slipped from 3.8% at the beginning of the year to 3.2%. If the 50% red line really hits, I estimate it would drop directly below 2%. Holders should hold their ground for now. This is actually two sides of the same coin. Pessimists see "shrinking returns," but I think the core logic has changed: this move is forcing liquidity to flee. Rather than letting tens of millions of $ETH locked in nodes as data bricks, it's better to force some to return to the DeFi ecosystem. Lido's stETH pool is already showing slight signs of depeging, and Curve's depth shrank by nearly 12% yesterday, indicating smart money is preemptively positioning for exit channels. I predict there will be a short-term wave of on-chain sell-off. The LSDFi project team is probably already in a frenzy of meetings, recalculating the economic model. However, those who are steady will see another layer of logic: forcibly weakening staking monopolies in the long run actually saves Ethereum's underlying consensus. If a few whales really controlled over 50% of the market by staking pools, that would be the start of a disaster movie. So don't panic just because you see the phrase "cut profits." Let's first look at the core group at Devcon in September$BTC Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 26, firmly in the fear zone—but fear by itself doesn't signal a market bottom.
So far, I'm not seeing the type of panic selling that typically marks a strong reversal. Instead, Bitcoin is moving sideways, altcoins continue to underperform, and there's little evidence of meaningful new capital entering the market.
This looks more like a loss of momentum than true capitulation. Markets can remain quiet and directionless for longer than most traders anticipate.
Until buyers return with strong conviction, I prefer to stay patient rather than treat every dip as a buying opportunity.
For now, the bears remain in control.
$BTC $BTC
#EarningsRealityCheck
#SpaceXBeatEstimates 🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, and the war premium has been completely drained
· Bassent: An agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz may be reached as soon as tomorrow
· Rubio: Negotiations have made progress; Iran's stance has softened, considering allowing Europe to clear mines in the strait
· WTI down 5% intraday, falling back to $74.66; European stocks Stoxx600 hit a new high for July
When oil crashes, the logic of "war = inflation = rate hikes" loosens. Half a month ago, the market feared that rising oil prices would push inflation up and force the Fed not to cut rates; now, this downward catalyst is being dismantled one by one, and risk assets are collectively breathing a sigh of relief—FANG +6%, Intel +10%.
The only one still pretending to sleep is crypto. $BTC stubbornly clings to 64K, not following risk assets when they rise, but falling when they fall. This "falling with the market but not rising with it" divergence is the signal to watch now—the narrative favors the bulls, but the price hasn't caught on.
Don't rush to translate macro tailwinds into buying reasons. Wait for BTC to find its own direction before deciding whether to follow. Let's watch and see 🧊#财报观察员：Mixed earnings, lock-up expiration approaching! What's next for SpaceX?
Just finished reading SpaceX's earnings report, and I have only one feeling: this company really doesn't lack stories.
$SPCX reported 7.8 billion in revenue, far exceeding Wall Street's expectation of 6.9 billion. Starlink users doubled to 12 million, and AI business losses narrowed by more than half. The numbers are impressively good.
Then it dropped 7% after hours.
Why?
Because the market is no longer focused on "how much you earned," but "how much you burned." Capital expenditure for the quarter was 18.3 billion, while revenue was only 7.8 billion, meaning they spent more than twice what they earned. Executives also said on the call that the burn rate for the next two quarters will be about the same.
It's like chatting with someone who keeps saying "I will make big money in the future," but you find their credit card bill is thicker than their paycheck. It sounds reasonable, but you feel uncertain.
Additionally, SpaceX holds 18,712 $BTC, with an unrealized loss of 540 million in Q2. The company hasn't sold a single coin, but a loss is a loss, clearly stated in black and white in the earnings report.
More than 900 million shares will be unlocked tomorrow. Shorts have already positioned themselves, betting over 20 billion. The earnings report itself isn't bad, but the lock-up expiration is the real big test—if insiders start selling in bulk, it definitely won't hold up in the short term. Over 600 million dollars worth of tokens will be unlocked in a week—are you on the list?
Today I opened two tabs, one for market data and one for the unlock calendar. After reviewing both, I feel a bit conflicted.
The market tab is quite lively. The cat coin called CASHCAT on Robinhood Chain has returned to a market cap above 90 million dollars, currently at 91.2 million, up over 39% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 21.1 million dollars. People in the group are already calculating how many times it has multiplied, and some are asking if it's too late to get in now.
The unlock tab is much quieter. According to RootData, RAIN will unlock tokens worth about 630 million dollars in a week. On the same day, APT will unlock 6.36 million dollars, which is basically negligible compared to the former.
Putting these two numbers together is where it gets interesting. CASHCAT rose 39%, with a full day’s trading volume of 21.1 million; RAIN’s upcoming unlock volume is 630 million, roughly 30 times the daily trading volume of the former. This is the core issue—the market’s heat and its capacity to absorb are on completely different scales.
To put it simply, "unlock" means that the batch of tokens previously locked by contract and not movable has now matured. The team, early investors, and market makers can choose to sell or not. The key is not whether they will dump all at once, but that the market knows they can dump at any time.
From the market perspective, these events follow a fairly fixed rhythm. The real pressure usually appears before the unlock date because smart money won’t wait for the announcement to act. The secondary market often drops first, and on the unlock day, there is often a so-called "bad news is priced in" rebound. Judging this rhythm is much more useful than just watching the unlock announcement itself.
What exactly should you watch? The ratio of unlock volume to circulating market cap—the higher this ratio, the harder it is to absorb; also, whether large amounts of tokens move from locked contracts to exchange addresses before and after unlock. This on-chain step cannot be hidden. These two signals are more accurate than any lengthy analysis.
There is also an easily overlooked diversion. Binance will list 10 bStocks trading pairs at 8 PM tonight, including ALABB, ASMLB, NFLXB, SMCIB—all tokenized US stocks. The amount of money willing to gamble is limited. Previously, it could only circulate among meme coins, but now there’s a pool that can speculate on US stocks. Once funds divert, the liquidity on the pure meme side will only get thinner, causing faster rises and equally fast drops.
In the short term, I don’t think these new narratives can support a big rally. Ultimately, they compete for the same speculative funds. Looking further ahead, tokenized stocks are indeed moving traditional assets onto the chain, which is a direction with real demand. But at this stage, it’s mostly just a repackaged venture game.
So if you currently hold small-cap altcoins, check their unlock schedules. If you find a large unlock coming up, let me know which one it is.#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
Last night, the movements of AMD and SpaceX almost wrote "buy the rumor, sell the news" on the candlestick charts.
Before the earnings release, AMD surged 7%, closing at $518.58; SpaceX rose 9.8%, closing at $125.33.
Both stocks accelerated suddenly before the earnings, clearly not just optimistic but more like capital rushing ahead, combined with concentrated short covering.
Once the earnings came out, the tone immediately changed.
AMD fell nearly 9% after hours, back to around $474; SpaceX dropped about 7.5% after hours, falling back to around $116. Those who chased during the day hadn’t even warmed up their accounts by night, and their profits were already wiped out.
The problem wasn’t poor performance, but the market’s appetite was too big.
AMD’s Q2 revenue was $11.54 billion, up 50% year-over-year; data center revenue was $6.72 billion, more than doubling, and the Q3 revenue guidance was also above expectations.
Normally, this earnings report would be considered quite good.
But AMD has already doubled this year, and surged 7% before earnings; the market wasn’t waiting for a "good" report, but a flawless super report. In the end, earnings beat analyst expectations but didn’t exceed the price expectations that had been priced in.
More awkwardly, SpaceX clearly stated that future AI data centers will prioritize Nvidia chips.
AI capital expenditure is still expanding, but this pie isn’t shared equally; Nvidia continues to sit at the main table, and AMD needs to prove it’s not just a runner-up but must secure more orders.
In terms of price action, AMD’s after-hours trading completely erased the day’s gains; $518–$530 has become a clear resistance zone. Short-term support at $460–$480 can still be seen as normal valuation correction after earnings; if it breaks below $460, watch for further retests at $430–$440. Only a rebound above $530 would signal a true return to strength.
SpaceX’s price action is even more interesting.
Before earnings, the stock price quickly rose from around $114 to $125, intraday hitting nearly $130. The sudden surge before earnings carried a strong event-driven speculation flavor.
After earnings, it fell back to $116, which is the market’s direct statement: growth is recognized, but with such high spending and the imminent unlocking, I’m not ready to pay for it yet.
SpaceX’s Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year; Starlink revenue grew 66%, users reached 12 million, and operating losses narrowed from $970 million to $143 million.
The money-making machine is indeed accelerating, but the burn rate is even more outrageous.
This quarter’s capital expenditure exceeded $18 billion, with nearly $15.8 billion invested in AI, and high levels are expected to continue for several quarters.
SpaceX today is no longer just a rocket and satellite company; it’s more like a super capital experiment where Starlink provides the cash flow, and AI, data centers, and Starship all burn money together.
The real trouble is still ahead.
Starting this Thursday, about 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors will become eligible for sale, with potential unlocking volume even exceeding the current float.
For early shareholders, this is an opportunity to cash out wealth; for the secondary market, it’s a test of selling pressure.
Next, SpaceX will focus on three price zones:
$125–$135: upper trapped zone and the dividing line between strength and weakness
$114–$115: pre-earnings launch position, first support
$100–$105: next support zone after unlocking selling pressure expands
A drop after unlocking isn’t scary; the key is whether there are buyers to catch the fall.
If it breaks below $115 on high volume but quickly rebounds, it means although selling is large, there is capital support below; if it breaks and then steadily declines with occasional low-volume rebounds, it’s not a shakeout but early shareholders truly exiting.
Only when the unlocking selling pressure is absorbed and the stock price stabilizes above the $135 IPO price can SpaceX be said to have truly entered a recovery phase.
The macro environment isn’t actually bad; easing US-Iran tensions have led to lower oil prices, US Treasury yields have declined, and US stock indices remain high.
But AMD and SpaceX both plunged after earnings, indicating the market has changed: indices are still hitting new highs, but capital is starting to seriously judge valuations.
My view is simple:
AMD’s fundamentals are not bad; the short-term issue is valuation running too fast, needing earnings to catch up. If $460–$480 holds, there is still a chance for mid-term recovery.
SpaceX’s long-term story is still big, but the pre-earnings rise looked like a rush, and the after-hours drop is the market’s real reaction to high capital expenditure and unlocking risks. Even if there is a short-term rebound, it’s more like a breather and shouldn’t be rushed as a reversal.
What’s truly worth remembering from last night isn’t how much these two stocks fell, but that the market attitude has quietly changed: Wall Street still believes in AI and the stars and seas, but is no longer willing to pay unlimitedly for all dreams.
This week is earnings week. I hope after reading the pre- and post-earnings movements of SpaceX and AMD, you can analyze and reason about the upcoming earnings reports and gain valuable insights! $SPCX $AMD $SNDK Will your old Bitcoin address still work after the rule change in September?
Let's start with a specific timeline. Around August 9, the Bitcoin network will reach block height 961632, at which point BIP-110 will enter the mandatory signaling phase. By the end of August, around block height 963648, it will be locked in, and by early September, at block height 965664, the new transaction rules will officially take effect.
These numbers might seem dry, but they are hard-coded agreements that will be executed on time, regardless of anyone's opinion.
BIP-110 is a soft fork. Simply put, a soft fork adds stricter rules on top of the existing ones. Old nodes that don't upgrade can still follow the chain but won't understand the parts governed by the new rules. The restrictions mainly target several things: pushing large chunks of data into transactions, oversized output scripts, undefined witness versions, and the annex field in Taproot. The signaling threshold for this soft fork is 55%, meaning if just over half of the mining power signals support, it will proceed. The enforcement period will last for 52,416 blocks, roughly one full year.
The good news is that UTXOs generated before activation are exempt, and regular transfers and typical currency uses remain fully compatible. The coins in your wallet won't become unspendable due to this upgrade, so you can rest assured.
The tricky part is the window period in between. When some mining power has upgraded and some hasn't, there's a chance of temporary chain splits, causing some blocks to be orphaned by the longer chain. If miners include transactions that don't comply with the new rules, those blocks might be wasted. Exchanges usually take a conservative approach by suspending deposits and withdrawals around the critical block heights until enough confirmations accumulate before resuming.
This is where it affects us practically. If you plan to transfer coins between exchanges in early September, it's best to move them beforehand to avoid getting stuck at that time. Arbitrage traders and those relying on funding rates for profits should also factor in the pause in deposits and withdrawals; otherwise, having one leg frozen on-chain and the other exposed in contracts can be really painful.
Now, about the controversy behind this. The restriction on pushing large data is clearly aimed at those embedding images and inscriptions on-chain. One side believes Bitcoin should be money and block space shouldn't be used as cheap storage; the other side argues that as long as fees are paid, people should be free to put whatever they want. This debate has been ongoing since the year before last, and now the decision will be made by mining power voting. The 55% threshold isn't very high but not guaranteed either; whether it reaches that depends on the signaling in the coming days.
In the short term, this is an event-driven disturbance, with volatility likely concentrated around the activation window and not much related to fundamentals. In the long term, tightening the use of block space strengthens Bitcoin's role as a settlement layer, but the cost is that projects doing on-chain inscriptions will face tougher times.
Do you support tightening on-chain space, or do you think paying fees should allow you to put whatever you want on-chain? Regarding the security vulnerability exposed in the Coldcard hardware wallet, what I find most worth delving into is that it precisely hits the weakest link in the self-custody belief system. Cold wallets have always been packaged as synonymous with absolute security: offline, not connected to the internet, private keys never leave the device, and theoretically, unless the hardware is physically stolen, they cannot be compromised.
But this time, the problem with Coldcard is not about being connected or not; it lies at the moment the private key is generated. The firmware was supposed to let the hardware random number generator generate the seed entropy, but due to a vulnerability that existed five years ago, it quietly redirected to the software random number generator, drastically reducing randomness to a level that can theoretically be reconstructed offline through brute force. Even if users follow best practices throughout, the private key can still be calculated.
The numbers have been climbing these past few days. On July 30, the first wave saw 1,083 bitcoins swept away within 41 minutes, followed by a single 25-minute incident that took 594 coins. By August 2, the official statement was 1,367 bitcoins, about $89 million, affected across 4,585 addresses. But the latest tracking today shows the attackers have evolved from a few coordinated groups into at least 15 independent hacker teams rushing to grab their share, with losses climbing to 2,055 bitcoins, approximately $130 million, involving over 7,700 addresses.
Once the vulnerability was made public, it became a publicly reproducible tutorial for everyone. This is what makes this incident more troublesome than a single theft: the danger window did not close after the vulnerability was exposed; instead, it was extended.
Coinkite did release a patch on August 1, but the affected seeds themselves are no longer trustworthy. The only remedy is to migrate to new seeds, and only those who initially added the BIP-39 passphrase—the 25th word—have an extra layer of buffer. This is already the third similar incident in the crypto industry in recent years. Milk Sad in 2023 and Ill Bloom earlier this year followed the same pattern: the problem occurs at the moment of generation, and ordinary users have no ability to verify it themselves. The wallet interface still displays a seemingly normal mnemonic phrase, but there is no way to tell if the underlying entropy is sufficient.
Therefore, I believe this incident should be used to recalibrate what risks self-custody actually exchanges for users, rather than simply being classified as an isolated security accident. You do indeed eliminate counterparty risks such as exchange runaways, custodian bankruptcies, and asset freezes, but in exchange, you take on software risks, hardware risks, and supply chain risks. These risks are equally real but have been selectively downplayed by self-custody marketing rhetoric in the past.
It's not to say self-custody is no longer worth doing, but it has never been free security; it just shifts risk from one visible form to another invisible form. Farewell to rate cut expectations! With high interest rates persisting, can Bitcoin still experience a major rally?
Headline
In the first half of the year, the entire investment community was immersed in the same expectation: the Federal Reserve would start a rate-cutting cycle, and liquidity easing would drive various risk assets higher. Many investors held onto hope, waiting for a big rally sparked by easing.
In a short time, market expectations have reversed dramatically.
Currently, several regional Fed presidents have consecutively expressed hawkish views, worried that inflation is receding too slowly, advocating to maintain or even further tighten monetary policy. The persistence of high interest rates for a longer period has gradually shifted from a niche speculation to the main focus of market competition.
The fantasy of sustained easing is slowly fading from market expectations. Many are asking: if high interest rates continue long-term, does Bitcoin still have a chance to break out into a major rally?
1. First, clarify: what is the underlying logic in a high interest rate environment?
Under high interest rates, cash, U.S. Treasuries, and other low-risk assets offer stable returns.
Capital weighs opportunity costs: holding non-yielding crypto assets means giving up steady financial returns. On a macro level, expectations of tightening liquidity will suppress risk asset valuation expansion in the medium to long term.
This is the core reason why, in recent times, whenever rate hike expectations heat up, Bitcoin often faces pressure and adjusts.
But history also tells us that the interest rate environment is not the sole determinant of market trends.
The birth of a bull market is a resonance of multiple factors: liquidity, industry narratives, capital consensus, and incremental funds. Monetary policy alone can only influence the pace of the market, not decisively determine its final direction.
2. Objective analysis of two scenarios
✅ Scenario 1: Inflation remains stubborn, high interest rates persist long-term
Incremental capital inflow willingness is weak, making it difficult to sustain a continuous one-sided major rally. The market will likely maintain wide fluctuations, with the trend showing pulse-like characteristics; rebound sustainability is limited, and opportunities are mostly swing trades, making a broad-based bull market unlikely.
✅ Scenario 2: Inflation steadily declines, the Fed stops raising rates and keeps rates unchanged without further tightening
Although there is no immediate rate cut, the tightening cycle has peaked. Market funds will preemptively trade the policy inflection point, and risk assets are expected to see valuation recovery. Bitcoin has the foundation to stage a mid-level rebound.
A key understanding to clarify:
Stopping rate hikes ≠ rate cuts.
A pause in tightening is a marginal improvement, not equivalent to easing or flooding the market with liquidity. The upside space will still be constrained, so past rate-cut cycle trading strategies cannot be directly applied.
3. Common pitfalls investors face now
1. Viewing macro as black or white: believing that without rate cuts, the market will definitely continue to bear.
There is no absolute rule in the market; interest rates are just one of many variables. BTC institutional funds, industry policies, and global capital preferences also have huge influence.
2. Clinging to old first-half-year thinking, stubbornly waiting for a rate-cut-driven bull market.
Market expectations have shifted; continuing to use outdated logic for positioning will easily lead to missing out or repeatedly getting trapped.
3. Chasing short-term news hype. Market moves triggered by Fed officials’ speeches are mostly short-term pulses with poor sustainability, unsuitable for heavy bets.
4. Rational approach at this stage
Abandon the single fantasy of "waiting for rate cuts to trigger a super bull market" and prepare for a medium- to long-term high interest rate environment.
Reduce frequent short-term trading, patiently wait for high cost-performance opportunities; prioritize monitoring volume-price signals and key global inflation data.
Market opportunities always exist, but the market style has quietly changed. Adjusting trading rhythm with the trend is far more important than subjective predictions of rises or falls.
Friendly reminder: This article is only an objective market review and analysis, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and risky; please view rationally and avoid blindly investing funds.
What do you think? Under a long-term high interest rate environment, can Bitcoin break free from liquidity constraints and rally? Share your views in the comments.After the joint Japan-US purchase of yen, the market's biggest concern is the "yen carry trade unwind" that occurred in 2024: a sudden appreciation of the yen forces funds borrowed in yen to invest in US stocks, BTC, and other risk assets to deleverage.
But this time there is a key change. The Japanese Ministry of Finance officially confirmed that on July 31, it coordinated with the US Treasury to buy yen and plans to use the Federal Reserve's FIMA repo facility in the future.
This means Japan can use its holdings of US Treasury bonds as collateral to obtain dollar liquidity, then convert those dollars into yen, without having to first sell US Treasuries heavily on the market.
Two transmission chains emerge simultaneously.
The first is deleveraging pressure. The USD/JPY rate previously approached 164, but after the joint intervention, it fell back to around 157.6, a decline of about 3.9%. From another perspective, the yen appreciated about 4.1% against the dollar. Funds borrowed in yen now need to repay with more expensive yen, and the higher the leverage, the more obvious the pressure to reduce positions.
The second is relatively favorable for risk assets. If Japan does not need to sell large amounts of US Treasuries to fund the intervention, the additional upward pressure on US Treasury yields will be reduced. For BTC, this can lessen the dual pressure of "yen appreciation causing deleveraging" and "US Treasury sell-off causing yield increases" happening simultaneously.
The scale of funds this round is also considerable. According to settlement data estimated by Reuters, the maximum amount of Japanese intervention on July 31 was about $36.58 billion; the single-day action the day before was about $58.97 billion, with a two-day total possibly close to $95.5 billion. This figure remains a market estimate and is not the final number released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
As of 11:12 Beijing time, USD/JPY remains near 157.6. BTC is around $64,337, with an intraday range of $63,403–$64,435, a volatility of about 1.6%. From the performance after the joint intervention, the coin price has not yet replicated the sharp decline seen during the rapid unwind of the yen carry trade in 2024.
Derivatives data even lean the other way. A CoinGlass snapshot shows BTC liquidations of about $42.09 million in the past 24 hours, with short liquidations at $35.10 million, accounting for 83.4%. On August 3, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of $170.1 million, roughly equivalent to 2,663 BTC at that time, and close to six days of new mining production.
The current results indicate that the risk of yen appreciation remains, but spot and ETF funds have temporarily absorbed the deleveraging impact.
The three key numbers to watch going forward are: whether USD/JPY continues to fall below 155, whether the US 10-year Treasury yield remains stable due to intervention, and whether BTC open interest declines rapidly if the yen continues to appreciate.
Exchange rate intervention can only change short-term funding costs. If the Bank of Japan does not further raise interest rates and the yen weakens again, the market will continue to test the intervention floor; if the yen continues to appreciate, the crypto space will face a more complete round of carry trade deleveraging.
#美日确认联合购汇 Bitcoin cycle bottom pattern:
Historical data:
2018: 19,800 → 3,200 (-84%)
2022: 69,000 → 15,500 (-78%)
2026: 126,000 → Target 40,000 (-68%)
Current status:
Has dropped about 50%
If the historical rhythm repeats, there may still be room to fall
Bottoms usually form when the market is at its most desperate
The 40,000 range is Galaxy's conservative estimate for the bottom of this bear market So will $Sui become the next Solana?
This is where I think we need to be very precise.
Chart comparisons are reasonable. The conclusion is not yet established.
$SUI:
$5.35 → about $0.69
Both have experienced catastrophic repricing.
Both eventually entered a long period of volatility compression, where traders essentially stopped paying attention.
Both have narratives of the chain being dead.
Importantly, both continued building despite poor price performance.
But there is a huge difference.
Solana ultimately developed applications that people urgently wanted to use.
This created a self-reinforcing loop:
Apps → Users → Stablecoins → Trading → Fees → Developers → Liquidity → Speculation → More users.
Sui has already built most of the infrastructure needed to create that loop.
It has yet to prove it can create that loop.
That is the missing piece.
My assessment
It becomes easier to understand if I separate the token from the blockchain.
Technology: Strong
Its architecture remains one of the most interesting Layer 1 designs in crypto. Mysticeti, parallel execution, object-oriented Move, zkLogin, programmable transaction blocks, and ongoing infrastructure work remain real advantages.
Developers: Healthy
685 monthly active developers and 219 full-time developers, far from an abandoned ecosystem.
Infrastructure: Growing
Payments, stablecoins, DeepBook, Hashi, institutional custody/access, confidential transfers, and new data stacks all expanded during the SUI crash.
Institutional track: Greatly enhanced
Multiple US ETFs, regulated bank integrations, and custody/payment infrastructure now exist, which were not present when we first made the case.
Users: Active but far from breakout
About 170,000 daily active addresses and 11 million+ transactions show activity, but transaction count itself is not economic value.
Liquidity: Weak
This is the main issue.
TVL: Severely impaired
$2 billion+ → about $419 million.
Monetization: Weak
Fees and revenue are not yet sufficient to describe Sui as a mature economic network.
Tokenomics: Still headwinds
More than half of the 10 billion max supply remains out of current circulation.
Reliability: Needs monitoring
Three mainnet outages in two days in May this year cannot be simply ignored.
Bottom line
So, revisiting this for the first time in months, I would not change the fundamental Sui argument to "this thing has become a shitcoin."
I would shift to something more nuanced.
The SUI token has been crushed far more severely than the deterioration of the Sui network.
In fact, while the token has lost about 87% from its peak, the underlying network continues to add developers, financial infrastructure, stablecoin infrastructure, payment relationships, institutional access, Bitcoin infrastructure, and new technological capabilities.
That matters.
But I also don’t want to delude myself. Are you still holding your position while he has shorted ETH for ten days and earned 600,000?
This morning, an on-chain analyst spotted an address starting with 0xd9a. Ten minutes ago, it placed another short order of 14,519.62 ETH, with a nominal value of 27.21 million USD and an average opening price of 1874.2 USD.
This is not the first time he has done this. Since July 27, this address has shorted ETH 20 times, all with 10x leverage, earning 600,000 USD in 10 days with an 80% win rate. Even more impressive is the rhythm: half of these 20 positions were held for only about 1 hour, entering to take a quick profit and then exiting, showing no attachment to the trade.
Putting these two sets of numbers together is quite striking. On one side, he enters and exits within an hour; on the other, many people hold their ETH for nearly half a year, with costs stuck at high levels, comforting themselves daily with the word "long-termism." Same market, two different approaches.
From a market perspective, this kind of high-frequency shorting that repeatedly takes profits is itself a signal: ETH’s recent structure still has sellers on every rebound. The average opening price of 1874 is quite critical, roughly near the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range. By daring to short 27.21 million USD at this level, it means the selling pressure above has not yet been absorbed. For swing traders, this information is more useful than any trade call because it tells you roughly where the resistance is, not whether to buy or sell.
Now about leverage. 10x sounds scary, but combined with a 1-hour holding period, the actual exposure to risk is very short. Conversely, many people use 3x leverage for two months, and their account’s heartbeat curve is much more volatile than his. Leverage ratio does not determine risk; holding time does. This statement is more practical than any indicator.
I don’t want to hype the 80% win rate as miraculous. Twenty trades is too small a sample size; one unexpected spike could wipe out these profits in a single blow. On-chain data only shows his current profits; it doesn’t show how many times he has been liquidated before. Data always only presents the survivors to you.
On the same platform today, there is a counterexample. Two whales shorting Nasdaq-mapped contracts were liquidated three times in a row. 319.3 short positions were liquidated by the system, with a transaction volume of about 9.398 million USD, losing 221,000 USD. Interestingly, these two didn’t rest for even a minute and immediately reopened shorts with 25x and 30x leverage, with liquidation prices only 2.3% away from the current price. So you see, many people fall on the shorting path, but they don’t get featured by on-chain analysts as headlines.
In the short term, the more active this kind of capital is, the easier it is for ETH rebounds to be pushed back down, compressing volatility more and more. Looking at the longer term, ETH’s staked amount is approaching a historical high, and the freely circulating supply is decreasing. No matter how fierce short-term bears are, they cannot reverse the direction of on-chain supply. These two things don’t conflict; they just happen on different time scales.
So the real question you should ask yourself is: do you want to capture 1 hour of volatility with your position, or hold for a year-long trend? If you can’t figure this out, any leverage amount is wrong.
Did you hold on to your recent ETH position, or did you exit early? Share your approach.$SPCX Revenue was 7.8 billion, a 92% year-on-year increase, far exceeding the expected 6.9 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was 3.5 billion, while market expectation was only 2 billion. Looking at the data alone, it dominated, but after the close, it dropped nearly 7%. Currently at around 117, the core reason can be summed up in three words: spending aggressively. $BTC $ETH Q2 capital expenditure soared to 18.4 billion, far above the expected 13.2 billion. Of that, 15.8 billion went to AI business. Starlink contributed 4.3 billion in revenue, making it the only cash cow. But the AI side is still burning cash Just the AI business alone lost $1.26 billion. Musk also said capital expenditure in Q3 and Q4 will continue to maintain this scale. The market fears when the cash burning will end. There's another big event tomorrow: the lock-up will be lifted. Starting August 6, up to 900 million shares held by insiders can be sold, and the free float will double. The bears have already accumulated $24.6 billion in positions, with unrealized profits of $7.3 billion and still adding more. Both bulls and bears are waiting for this earnings report as an excuse. In terms of trading, focus on two levels if you want to trade. Don't rush at 117. Wait for a pullback near 110 to 112, then try in batches. Set a stop loss and set a 105 position If tomorrow's unlock drops to a panic low, it could actually be an opportunity. The target is 125 to 130. If you want to short, don't chase. After the market dropped, wait for the rebound to 122 to 124 before acting. Stop loss at 128, target 110 to 112. If selling pressure isn't as strong as expected after the lock-up, bears might actually get squeezed short. Good earnings but no rise, money spent too fast, the market is calculating. Wait for the unlocking to happen before looking at the direction. #EarningsObserver: Mixed performance#SpaceX's first earnings report exceeds expectations, but unlocking remains a key variable
The first quarterly report exceeded expectations but fell 6.5% after hours. Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, with losses narrowing from $970 million to $143 million. Partnering with Nvidia on Starlink AI payloads, the storyline is also set. The report is flawless, but once the earnings call started, the stock price immediately dropped.
The reason is just one word: burn. Q2 capital expenditure was $18.37 billion, of which $15.8 billion was spent on AI, far exceeding Wall Street's expected $13.2 billion. Full-year capital expenditure is expected to exceed $45 billion, with $100 billion cash on hand; at this burn rate, the cash will be depleted in two years. Starlink's cash generation is improving, with $4.29 billion revenue and $1.66 billion profit, but the AI business is burning much more than it earns back. The numbers look good, but the cash flow can't hold up, and the market is not buying it.
A bigger problem is on August 6.
912 million restricted shares will be unlocked, with the first batch releasing about 20%, or 182 million shares entering circulation. The current public float is only 117 million shares. The potential supply will increase by one and a half times. SpaceX designed a phased release, which is milder than a traditional IPO dumping all shares at once, but the psychological impact has already arrived.
Short sellers have been waiting. Short positions account for 34% of the float, with a nominal value of $24.6 billion and unrealized gains of $7.3 billion, and they are still adding positions. These people are waiting for the unlocking window. The earnings beat is a known factor; unlocking is the real variable. Both bulls and bears are heavily betting simultaneously, a rare kind of split.
The impact on SpaceX is twofold.
In the short term, the stock price is controlled not by fundamentals but by chip (share) game. The earnings report is in the past; unlocking is ongoing. Stocks with a market cap over $100 billion suddenly become tradable, combined with rich short-seller profits, selling pressure and shorting forces will overlap, causing very volatile stock price movements.
In the medium term, whether the burn rate can be stabilized. AI business revenue growth of 247% is impressive, but a quarterly burn of $15.8 billion cannot continue. The market wants a clear path to narrowing losses, not just relying on $100 billion cash to hold on. If Q3 capital expenditure guidance shows no sign of decline, valuation will continue to be under pressure.
How to respond?
First, watch the volume-price relationship in the first week of unlocking. If a large number of shares are put up for sale and the stock price falls below $108 on high volume, selling pressure is being released; don't rush to buy. If the stock price holds above $115, it means the buyers are strong enough, and the panic is over.
Second, watch Elon Musk's moves. He and major investors have a one-year lock-up, but if he arranges for core investors to buy some shares from insiders off-market, it is a very strong confidence signal. Without this signal, don't make excuses for yourself.
Third, the most practical approach is to wait until the first wave of selling is over. After the first week, those who want to run will have run, and the remaining shares are truly bullish; that will be the window to build positions. There's no need to rush in early to bet on support.
The fundamentals are there, but in the short term, the intensity of the chip game outweighs the fundamentals. Wait for institutions to take shares first, then follow their lead; the safety margin is much higher.Don't rush to blame Bitcoin for SpaceX's losses in this financial report!
SpaceX's first Q2 financial report after going public shows revenue of $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase. Net loss was $541 million, narrowed from about $1.01 billion in the same period last year. The $539 million unrealized loss on digital assets mentioned in the headline refers to the first half of the year.
What really matters is the quality of the business. Connectivity revenue was $4.291 billion with operating profit of $1.656 billion, already profitable. AI revenue was $2.561 billion but had an operating loss of $1.257 billion, indicating revenue growth has not yet translated into profit. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.538 billion, up 191% year-over-year, but since this is a non-GAAP metric, it is recommended to consider it alongside cash flow and capital expenditures.
In practice, when you see a headline saying "company lost money due to BTC," first check four things: the amount of BTC held, cost basis, fair value at period end, and whether the loss is realized or unrealized, then confirm if the reporting period is a single quarter or year-to-date. As of June 30, SpaceX held 18,712 BTC with a cost basis of $661 million and a fair value of $1.098 billion. Revenue beating expectations but weakening after hours may also reflect the market pricing in capital expenditures, cash conversion, valuation, and potential unlocking supply simultaneously. Don't just focus on one BTC figure.
Disclaimer: This is only an information summary and logical review, not any investment advice. The market carries risks; please do your own research. SpaceX delivered its first earnings report since going public last night.
Revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, nearly doubling, which is actually not bad. The loss was $541 million, mainly due to expansion investments in Starlink and AI infrastructure—this is a cash-burning loss, not a hemorrhaging loss.
What about the stock price? It still fell.
The real pressure isn’t in this earnings report but on August 6th—the day when 911.5 million shares will unlock, which is more than the 640 million shares currently circulating in the market. Someone from the venture capital circle put it bluntly: many early shareholders pledged their shares to buy houses and cars, so after unlocking, they really need to cash out. This is a supply issue, not a lack of confidence in the company.
This week has two bombs: the earnings report is just the appetizer; the unlocking is the main course.
Previously, the box support was at $105-108. If it holds after unlocking, it means the selling pressure has been absorbed, which would be a sweet spot; if it breaks below the $100 round number, it means the selling pressure is fiercer than expected, and the bottom will need more time to form.
If you are a shareholder, would you choose to reduce your position to hedge before the unlocking, or bet that the earnings numbers will hold?
$SPCX #USStocks #IPO #SpaceStocksI'm Ci Ge, still holding a short position at 1324.87, current price 1288, floating profit of 36 points. Profit margins shrank a bit at first, but the orders stayed intact. I've been monitoring the 1270 to 1320 range for three days, and the rebound is weaker each time, and volume hasn't kept up. On August 3, SanDisk closed at $1288.03, with an intraday range close to $200. The low dropped to 1121.33, and the high was only 1316.44. Such a massive upswing indicates a huge divergence between bulls and bears, but the price remains suppressed by the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, so the bears remain firmly in control in the short term. 1360 to 1410 is the first resistance zone, mid-term strong resistance is between 1560 and 1610. Looking downward, 1180 to 1200 is the dividing line between strength and weakness, 998 is the trend lifeline, and breaking below it is a whole different world. The core logic of short selling is not the market itself, but the fundamentals. SanDisk's 52-week low was $40.53, and its high was $2,354.39, an increase of over 5700%. Its TTM price-to-earnings ratio is over 42 times. A strong cyclical storage company is priced by the market as a core AI asset, which itself is a bubble. The news of SK Hynix jointly issuing HBF regulations spurred a rebound, but technical benefits do not guarantee commercialization. The market overloaded expectations, and the post-market earnings report on August 5 was a magic mirror. The market expected EPS of $34.67 and revenue of $8.42 billion. Meeting expectations is all negative, and the scenario of buying expectations and selling facts is likely to repeat. #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMD财报After tonight, the market may face a real directional choice.
Short-term trends currently have no shortage of stories; what is lacking are variables that can change capital expectations. There are several key points worth closely monitoring:
First, the small non-farm payroll data released tonight at 20:15. What the market truly cares about is not the number itself, but whether it will change the expectation of a rate cut in September. If employment data continues to cool, expectations for a Federal Reserve policy shift may rise, liquidity expectations may improve, supporting risk assets; conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, pressure for rate hikes may return to the market.
Second, changes in the Strait of Hormuz. On the surface, it is a shipping issue, but essentially it affects energy prices and global inflation expectations. If the strait truly reopens, oil price pressure will ease; but if the struggle for control continues, shipping is obstructed, or conflicts escalate, market risk aversion may rise again.
Third, progress on the crypto bill. The House of Representatives has already passed it, and the market’s focus shifts to the Senate. If the Senate can file a motion to end debate, it means the bill is one step closer to becoming law, which will have a significant impact on regulatory expectations for the entire crypto industry.
Fourth, MicroStrategy’s actions cannot be ignored. Previously, the market focused on its ability to continuously buy BTC, but last week there was selling activity. During this rally, if MicroStrategy increases holdings again, it may strengthen market confidence; if it continues to reduce positions, it will also become a pressure factor that short-term funds need to consider.
The current market is not about who can predict a direction to win, but who can understand what capital is truly waiting for.
Rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, policy implementation, and institutional capital flows—these four variables are jointly determining the next phase of the market.
A real major market move often does not start at the moment news breaks, but after the market confirms a shift in variables.
#CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交 SK Hynix $SKHYNIX surges significantly, how many related opportunities remain?
Key Points:
This round of SK Hynix's rise is driven by threefold logic:
HBM leader premium: Public industry data still shows SK Hynix as the market leader in HBM, with Samsung and Micron posing the main competitive pressure.
US stock valuation restructuring: SK Hynix listed on Nasdaq as SKHY, with an ADR issuance price of $149, raising about $26.5 billion. Listing in the US expanded global capital coverage but also brought ADR premium risk relative to the Korean parent stock.
Deep binding with the AI industry chain: Hynix has disclosed cooperation with TSMC to develop HBM4 base wafers and optimize CoWoS integration, signed multi-year technology cooperation with Nvidia, and is advancing customized HBM collaboration with Meta and Broadcom.
Target classification:
1. Direct competitors: Micron MU, Samsung Electronics 005930.KS
2. NAND and adjacent storage: SanDisk SNDK, Kioxia 285A.T
3. Data storage mapping: Western Digital WDC, mainly HDD, not an HBM competitor
4. Direct cooperation links: TSMC TSM, Nvidia NVDA, Meta META, Broadcom AVGO
5. Upstream equipment prosperity mapping: ASML, Applied Materials AMAT, Lam Research LRCX, KLA KLAC
6. Hynix is also promoting HBF standardization with SanDisk, but HBF is a new flash memory tier aimed at AI inference and should not be equated with HBM.
Investment advice:
Do not chase single-day surges: The current trade is no longer about "whether HBM grows," but whether growth can sustain beyond very high expectations.
Core positions can focus on SKHY + TSM + NVDA, corresponding respectively to HBM, advanced packaging, and AI accelerators; before buying SKHY, one must compare the implied price difference between the ADR and the Korean parent stock.
High elasticity positions can observe MU, Samsung, SNDK, but they correspond respectively to HBM chasing and NAND cycles and cannot simply apply Hynix's valuation.
More conservative industry chain allocations can consider ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, but these reflect capital expenditures across the entire industry and do not all have disclosed special orders from Hynix.
Key follow-ups: HBM4/4E mass production rhythm, contract prices, advanced packaging capacity, inventory days, Samsung and Micron market share changes, and whether capital expenditures can convert to cash flow. Hynix announced in June 2026 that it sent HBM4E samples to major customers; the next key step is validation and mass production scaling.
Investment banks' initial coverage can strengthen short-term sentiment, but ratings and target prices near the underwriting period should not be regarded as independent buying bases.
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 $SMCI SMCI Super Micro Computer: The most practical one-pager before the 8/11 earnings report 🖥️⚡
Current price $31.69 (closing on 8/4, +10.65% in one day, PE 16.68x, market cap ~20.5 billion)
8/11 Eastern Time 17:00 official earnings report + conference call, options implied volatility ±18.5%
🔥 What the preliminary update on 7/21 said
📦 Single quarter new orders >$60 billion, backlog hits record high, but the company clearly states "some are non-firm commitments, cancellable/postponable"
💰 Gross margin guidance 15%–17%, nearly double the original 8.2%–8.4%, driven by "customer + product mix" (Blackwell liquid-cooled racks proportion rising)
📉 Q4 revenue ~ $11 billion, hitting the lower end of $11–12.5 billion guidance, revenue not surprising, gross margin is
⚠️ Data unaudited, board independently reviewing export control investigation related transactions
🧩 Industry chain position (where the profits are made)
🔴 Upstream cash burn: NVIDIA GPU about 50% of cost + Micron HBM + liquid cooling/power parts, pricing power not with SMCI
🟡 SMCI itself: AI systems + DCBBS liquid-cooled racks + firmware integration, gross margin jump relies on liquid cooling self-manufacturing rate + rack-level solutions
🟢 Downstream cash collection: xAI/SpaceX-type hyperscalers single clients once accounted for 27% of quarterly revenue, high concentration risk
📊 Breakdown of the "water content" in the 60 billion orders (market assumes discounting method)
Type A true firm commitments: market guesses 30%–50% (~18–30 billion)
Type B framework agreements adjustable: 30%–40%
Type C rolling renewals + Type D pipeline: largest water content, cancellable
→ Effective convertible orders discounted around $30B midpoint, not $60B directly as revenue
🎯 Focus on three numbers on 8/11 (everything else is noise)
Gross margin confirmation: ≥16% and says "repeatable" → bulls continue; <14% or says "one-time mix" → good news fully priced
Firm backlog ratio: disclosed >70% → upward revision; still undisclosed → continue pricing at 50% discount
Export investigation wording: escalation (criminal/Taiwan employee detention details) → trust discount increases; nearing end → remove biggest cap
🎲 Four scenarios (probability × price, expected ≈ $32.6 ≈ current price)
🐂 BULL 25%: gross margin ≥16% + firm >70% + investigation easing → $38–45
⚖️ BASE 35%: gross margin 15–16% + firm ~50% + no new bad news → $30–35 (current price in this range)
🐻 BEAR 25%: gross margin not repeatable + firm unclear + high concentration → $25–28
💥 CRASH 15%: gross margin <14% + cancellations >20% + investigation escalation + further dilution → $19–22 (52-week low $19.48)
✋ The most practical operational conclusion
Current price $31.69 = baseline fair value midpoint, already priced in 7/21 good news, neither cheap nor bubble
Chasing long/short before earnings has low success rate, waiting for 8/11 direction is more cost-effective than guessing turning points
Existing low position → hold and watch gross margin confirmation; no position → either wait for pullback to $29–30 (cost basis $29.37) to enter, or wait for post-earnings break above $34 or below $27 to follow
Left-skewed distribution: downside tail thicker than upside, naked longs less favorable than bull market spreads, naked shorts beware of short squeezes This article says the biggest risks for $ASTEROID are PVP and vampire attacks. After its launch, asteroids with Robinhood's on-chain butterfly mechanism and asteroids on the BSC chain were released. But so far, the ETH asteroid still has the highest trading volume, the highest market recognition, and is the most market-aligned asteroid. Yesterday during the day, it surged more than forty points because the market was betting that Musk would mention the asteroid at the Space conference, but he did not. Then it rapidly dropped back to its original position. This is the current state of the asteroid; everyone will wait for a key moment when Musk might mention it, and if there is no urgent expectation, they will exit. The market's reaction speed is getting faster each time.#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
I believe the core contradiction in SpaceX's current valuation is not the high revenue growth, but whether the market can absorb the potential selling pressure exceeding the free float scale during the unlocking wave on August 6.
This quarterly report is indeed explosive. Q2 revenue reached $7.814 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92%. Operating loss narrowed sharply from $970 million to $143 million, with both growth and loss reduction exceeding market expectations. More importantly, the company announced a partnership with NVIDIA to develop the Starmind AI1 satellite computing payload, marking a substantial step in its space AI infrastructure layout and opening up long-term growth potential.
The short-term stock price anchor is not determined solely by fundamentals. On August 6, the first batch of restricted shares will enter the unlocking window, allowing eligible shareholders to sell up to 20% of their restricted shares. This means the potential supply scale may exceed the current public float, posing a severe test to the market's absorption capacity. Even if profitability continues to improve, concentrated selling pressure from unlocking could still significantly suppress the stock price.
For investors, the focus should be on two details: the structure and selling intentions of unlocking shareholders, and the market's digestion pace of the new supply. Rather than chasing earnings positives, it is better to closely watch volume and price changes and capital flows around the unlocking window. The real opportunities often lie in the mispricing after risk release.
$XSPCX Negotiations resume in the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz, with reports of "oil tanker passage resuming as early as Wednesday," causing oil prices to plunge and the S&P 500 market capitalization surpassing $70 trillion for the first time in history; BTC simultaneously climbed to 64,000, but was caught between two moving averages, "twisting the ropes"—the easing of geopolitical risks is being realized, but BTC has yet to choose a direction. 📊 Key Figures · Oil prices: WTI −4.8%, Brent −4.6%, both falling to their lowest levels since July 13. The trigger was U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent telling CNBC on 8/4 that "a reopening agreement could be reached today or tomorrow," and Trump confirmed the talks the day before, saying "as early as tomorrow." S&P 500: hits a new high of 7,713 points, market capitalization surpasses $70 trillion for the first time. · BTC: Bitstamp high at 64,176 (about +1% intraday), topped by the 21-day SMA (64,388) and supported by the 50-day SMA, typical range-bound consolidation. · On-chain accumulation: CryptoQuant reports "strong accumulation"—0.7% of BTC supply (about 155,000 tokens) costs locked at 62,000–65,000, characterized as "absorption rather than surrender." · Interest rates and sentiment: CME FedWatch shows a 56.7% probability of a 25bp rate hike in September; The Fear and Greed Index rebounded to 27 (fear). 🎯 Xiaoxi Perspective · Macro Direction: This is correctIs this wave of good news for SPCX just sugar-coated artillery or a setup for a reversal?
Recently, SPCX has indeed had continuous good news, but behind this series of positives, the overall market situation is actually not simple.
$SPCX
📈 Short-term positive "combo punches"
1. First earnings report exceeded expectations: The first quarterly report after listing showed revenue of $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, far surpassing the expected $6.9 billion. Starlink users doubled to 12 million, and AI business revenue surged 247%.
2. Major cooperation and Elon Musk's endorsement: Announced collaboration with NVIDIA to design the "Starmind AI1" satellite, planning to send AI data centers into space. Elon Musk himself got involved, retweeting with "I think so too," publicly endorsing the stock.
3. "Fuel" for the surge in short positions: Due to the approaching unlock date, short bets have soared to 219.3 million shares, accounting for 34% of tradable shares. This huge short position actually prepares ample fuel for a potential short squeeze.
⚖️ Pressure behind the short-term positives
· AI "money burn" scares the market: The biggest concern in the earnings report is capital expenditure soaring to $18.4 billion, far exceeding expectations. The AI business still lost $1.26 billion in a single quarter, and market worries about the "money-burning black hole" outweighed the revenue positives, causing the stock price to drop nearly 7%-8.8% after the report.
· Epic unlock peak: The real test is the insider stock unlock of about 911.5 million shares on August 6. This is the core logic behind the shorts' bold bets.
This series of good news seems more like hype building for the upcoming "unlock peak," trying to use positives to hedge against selling pressure. For insiders with very low early costs, the stock price rally driven by the earnings beat and Musk's endorsement might just be the best selling opportunity.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #EarningsObserver: Mixed results, unlocking imminent! What’s next for SpaceX? #SpaceX’s first earnings beat expectations, unlocking remains a key variable $BTC "The night before the $100 billion 'flood release': Your Bitcoin is being drained by SpaceX"
Brothers, let me tell you a ghost story.
There’s a company that surged to $225 on its IPO day, with a market cap surpassing $3 trillion, crushing Amazon and Microsoft. Six weeks later, it dropped to $108, 20% below the issue price and 52% down from the peak. Market cap evaporated by over $1.2 trillion. This company is called SpaceX.
And its darkest hour hasn’t even arrived yet.
On August 4, the earnings report came out: revenue of $7.8 billion beat expectations, but Bitcoin holdings showed an unrealized loss of $540 million, and the stock fell another 6% after hours. But that was just the appetizer.
The real main course arrives on August 6.
911.5 million insider shares will be unlocked, worth over $100 billion at the current stock price. And how many SpaceX shares are currently freely tradable by the public? About 640 million shares. Overnight, the tradable shares will double.
And that’s just the first batch. By early December, the float will explode from 640 million shares to 5.33 billion shares. This isn’t unlocking; this is a flood release.
Trader Ouyang Bai puts it bluntly: a massive influx of employee shares will make it very difficult for the stock price to rally significantly over the next six months. Early investors and employees have extremely low cost bases, so even if the stock price halves, their paper gains are still multiples, and they have a strong desire to cash out. Shorts have gone crazy—holding 34% of the float, with a nominal value of $24.6 billion.
But I’m not here to talk about SpaceX. I want to talk about your Bitcoin position.
$100 billion worth of stock is about to hit the market—who will take it?
The answer: institutions must rebalance in advance. How? By selling other overvalued assets, hoarding cash, and preparing to absorb SpaceX’s "blood-stained chips."
Which assets will be sold first? Overvalued tech stocks. And also—spot ETF positions in BTC and ETH.
This is not a conspiracy theory. During SpaceX’s IPO in June, Bitcoin fell from above 100,000 to 92,400. At that time, the IPO raised $75 billion. Now it’s a $100 billion unlocking, plus tens of billions more shares unlocking before year-end.
The liquidity transmission chain is simple:
· Earnings miss → no buyers for unlocking shares → stock price crashes → institutions forced to sell other assets to cover margin
· Earnings beat → institutions want to buy in → sell BTC/ETH to raise cash
Regardless of earnings, the crypto market is the one being drained.
This is not a one-time liquidity event—it’s a "seller black hole" lasting until December.
You stay up late watching candlesticks, but they’re calculating how to absorb $100 billion. You think you’re trading crypto, but you’re actually providing liquidity for Wall Street’s SpaceX bailout.
So what to do?
First, don’t heavily bet long this week. It’s not bearish on Bitcoin; it’s that when liquidity is drained, no asset can withstand forced selling.
Second, wait until after August 6. Wait for the "Starship" selling pressure to land, see how strong the buy-in is, then decide on replenishing crypto positions.
Third, avoid leveraged crypto contracts related to SPCX. Volatility will be extremely high around unlocking—high probability of both long and short liquidations.
Remember: when Wall Street is about to absorb $100 billion, your position is their liquidity pool.
The bigger the storm, the pricier the fish. But the premise is—you have to survive the storm.Just checked the data, the Fear and Greed Index is at 27, the market is still lingering in the panic zone. But BTC rebounded 1.4% today, back near 64300, which is an interesting level. Honestly, quite a few people are probably shorting at this point, but the rebound strength is decent, so don’t rush to chase.
Let’s talk about the overall environment first. BTC currently has support at 62241 and resistance at 65173, with volatility at 3.4%, which isn’t high. Funding rates are calm across the board; BTC and ETH are around 0.005%, XRP and ARB are even negative, indicating no clear one-sided bets in the market, bulls and bears are still watching. At times like this, the worst thing is to go all-in heavily; if the direction is wrong, you won’t have time to stop loss.
Focus on two coins. The first is ETH. Today at 1873, up 1.1% in 24 hours, but still down 2.3% over 7 days. Daily volume is 6.9B, liquidity is no problem. ETH is oscillating between 1823-1921 with a 3.8% amplitude, honestly not aggressive. My view is if BTC can hold above 64000, ETH will likely test the 1921 resistance. You can consider light long positions in the 1850-1870 range, stop loss at 1815; if it breaks below, admit the mistake and exit. First target 1925, second target 1960, risk-reward ratio about 1:2.5, leverage suggested at 8x, don’t be greedy. This long position isn’t because I’m particularly bullish on ETH, it’s purely because the short-term oversold rebound probability is higher, given ETH dropped 2.3% over 7 days while BTC rose.
The second is BNB, today at 603, up 2.4% in 24 hours, up 5.5% over 7 days, which is strong among major coins. Volume is 600M, barely enough for contract trading threshold. BNB tends to run independent trends, not closely following BTC. Its trend is healthier than most altcoins now; if it pulls back to 590-595, consider entering long, stop loss at 580, first target 615, second target 635, risk-reward ratio above 1:2. Leverage up to 10x is fine, trend is relatively clear. But a reminder, there might be some selling pressure near the 600 round number, don’t chase high immediately.
As for those popular coins like CASHCAT, PUMP, SKYAI, their volumes are too small. SKYAI’s daily volume might not even reach 100M; entering contracts there is just giving money to the whales. PENGU is somewhat interesting, but meme coins like PENGU have too much volatility and no clear support or resistance references; I usually avoid these. If you have the energy, better focus on BTC and ETH, at least stop losses can be set reasonably.
Finally, about risks. The panic index is 27, market sentiment is cold; although it looks like a rebound signal, it could also be a downtrend continuation. The levels I gave are based on current data; if BTC breaks below the 62000 support, I suggest closing all altcoin long positions, don’t hold on. Also, XRP and ARB funding rates are negative, meaning many are shorting; be cautious of short-covering rebounds, don’t pick the wrong side when the trend is unclear.
That’s all for today, wishing everyone smooth trading, remember to set your stop losses. 🔥
#BTC #ETH # #contracttrading #cryptocurrency#S&P 500 surpasses 7700 points for the first time, hitting a record high
The S&P 500 has surpassed 7700 points for the first time, but BTC hasn't caught up yet—this is the most awkward situation in the crypto space.
The S&P 500 closed above 7700 points for the first time, setting a new all-time high.
This rise is not just driven by sentiment speculation. The earnings of AI-related companies like Palantir, Microsoft, and Amazon continue to prove that massive AI investments are turning into real revenue; meanwhile, oil prices have fallen, U.S. Treasury yields have declined, and concerns about the Middle East situation and Fed rate hikes have eased. The S&P 500 ultimately closed around 7736 points, led by gains in the technology and semiconductor sectors.
But what really concerns me is:
The U.S. stock market has hit new highs, yet BTC is still stuck at low levels, fluctuating.
According to past logic, with risk appetite rising and tech stocks surging, capital should eventually spill over into the crypto market.
But now, capital clearly prefers to buy AI companies with earnings and cash flow rather than risk assets supported only by expectations.
So I increasingly feel that what BTC lacks now is not a rising U.S. stock market or more macro tailwinds.
What it lacks is genuinely new capital willing to chase highs.
The S&P breaking 7700 points is certainly not bad for the crypto space. But if the U.S. stock market keeps hitting new highs and BTC still can't keep up, it only means capital is picking assets rather than fully entering risk markets.
Do you think BTC will catch up, or have the U.S. stock market and crypto space already started to follow their own separate paths? The market reaction is very typical: earnings exceeded expectations across the board, yet the stock price dropped nearly 8% after hours.
1. Breakdown of the three main businesses: who is making money, who is burning cash
Connectivity (Starlink) — The cash cow is established
Revenue of $4.29 billion, operating profit of $1.66 billion, with a very respectable profit margin. Users doubled from 6 million a year ago to 12 million, with increasing contributions from enterprise and government sectors; government-related contracts alone exceeded $6 billion in a single quarter. ARPU remains at $66, lower than early days but scale effects are starting to show. This segment is already a true "cash-generating machine."
AI — Fastest growth, but also the biggest cash burn
Revenue of $2.56 billion (year-over-year growth of about 250%), new cloud service agreements signed worth $14.1 billion. However, operating loss remains $1.26 billion. Musk clearly stated in the call that the year-end compute target is 2GW, aiming for 10GW by next year-end, and they are pushing the Cursor acquisition ($60 billion) and Grok iteration. The market’s biggest fear now is that the "AI narrative becomes a bottomless pit" — money is burning fast, but can monetization keep pace?
Space (Launch) — Still in investment phase
Revenue of $962 million, still operating at a loss. Starship V3 has completed two successful test flights; the goal of full reusability is progressing, but short-term profit contribution is limited. Falcon 9 remains the mainstay, but the company is already shifting focus toward Starship.
Overall, Starlink supports profits, AI supports imagination, and Space supports the long-term moat. The power of vertical integration is indeed showing — building rockets, deploying satellites, building compute infrastructure, and running models all in-house.
2. Unlocking is the real short-term stress test
The lock-up design is special, not the traditional 180-day cliff but staggered releases. Tomorrow, the first batch of about 912 million shares (about 20% of eligible early employees and investors) can be sold, with multiple rounds of roughly 7% releases in the following months, causing a significant increase in float by December.
The current float is already thin; supply could more than double after unlocking. Coupled with already crowded shorts, short-term volatility will be very intense. Historically, unlocks of this scale rarely get "digested painlessly." The stock price has already retraced nearly half from its IPO high, and with the unlock window opening, sentiment and selling pressure will compound.
3. How to view the future?
Short term (1-3 months): Mainly volatility. Despite good earnings, under the dual pressure of high Capex and unlocking, the market will continue to "vote with its feet" to reprice valuation. If AI monetization slows or Starship progress encounters setbacks, the correction could be harsher.
Medium term (6-18 months): Key points to watch —
Whether Starlink users and ARPU can sustain, and if the enterprise segment share continues to rise;
AI infrastructure utilization and actual revenue conversion;
Whether Starship truly enters a phase of high-frequency, low-cost operations.
Long term: SpaceX’s core competitiveness remains very strong. It is not simply a "rocket company" or "satellite company," but a vertically integrated platform combining "launch cost + global coverage + compute infrastructure."
Once Starship achieves rapid reusability and launch costs drop by another order of magnitude, the imagination space for the entire space economy will reopen. Coupled with AI compute demand, the narrative remains powerful.
Earnings prove the growth is real and Starlink’s cash-generating ability, but high capital expenditure and the unlocking wave make the market rethink the "cost of growth" and "valuation rationality."#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #AMD earnings exceed expectations, is growth already overdrawn?
AMD delivered an impressive earnings report, but its stock price plunged about 9% after hours. This apparent contradiction reflects the market's belief that its "growth has already been overdrawn."
1. The earnings report itself indeed "exceeded expectations"
Metric Actual Expected Year-over-year
Revenue $11.54 billion $11.28-11.3 billion +50% (all-time high)
Adjusted EPS $1.66 $1.62 +246%
Data center revenue $6.72 billion $6.48 billion +107%
The data center business has become the absolute engine, accounting for 58% of total revenue. CEO Lisa Su also predicts data center sales will double by 2027.
2. The paradox of "exceeding expectations but stock falling"
The issue lies in the Q3 guidance: AMD expects Q3 revenue around $13 billion—higher than Wall Street's average expectation of $12.5 billion, but some aggressive institutions had previously bet as high as $14 billion. Against the backdrop of the AI boom having already doubled AMD's stock price this year, the market was expecting a more "explosive" growth blueprint.
3. The triple logic of "growth being overdrawn"
① Valuation overdrawn: AMD's stock price has more than doubled this year, significantly outperforming the market. The market needs faster growth to support the current valuation.
② Expectation overdrawn: Investors are no longer satisfied with "whether it can benefit from AI," but instead ask "whether it can achieve AI leader growth rates." The Q3 guidance is good but failed to "wow" the market.
③ Capital expenditure overdrawn: Q2 capital expenditure reached $808 million, nearly three times the market expectation ($298.6 million). Aggressive investment in AI infrastructure is beneficial in the long term but may compress profit margins in the short term. $BTC #SpaceX's first earnings report exceeds expectations, but unlocking remains a key variable
SPCX's first earnings report is indeed flawless in terms of numbers.
Revenue reached 7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, significantly higher than Wall Street's expected 6.9 billion. Net loss narrowed from 1 billion in the same period last year to 541 million, with a loss per share of $0.09, much better than the expected $0.26. Adjusted EBITDA was 3.538 billion, up 191% year-over-year.
All three major segments exceeded expectations. The connectivity business led by Starlink generated 4.29 billion, up 66%, with 12 million users, doubling. The AI business reached 2.56 billion, surging 247%. Even the consistently loss-making space business made 962 million, up 29%. Cash reserves stand at 100 billion, with orders on hand totaling 47.5 billion. The CFO said annualized recurring revenue could exceed 100 billion by year-end. Musk even moved the trillion-dollar revenue target from 2031 up to 2030.
Despite such strong numbers, the stock dropped over 8% in after-hours trading. Capital expenditures were 18.37 billion, a 550% year-over-year surge, with AI alone accounting for 15.83 billion. Market expectations were only 13.2 billion. The AI business lost 1.257 billion, and the space business lost 542 million. The entire company is basically sustained by the Starlink segment.
The bigger issue is tomorrow. On the second trading day after the earnings report, the first round of insider shares will unlock, with up to 911.5 million shares available for sale, 1.4 times the current float. Short sellers have already crowded in, holding 219.3 million shares, accounting for 34% of the float, worth over 24 billion, more than Tesla. The head of S3 research put it bluntly—the market bets that the earnings report won't offset the impact of the unlocking.
This situation is quite twisted. 27 institutions rate it as "buy," with an average target price of $236-$239. Shorts have already gained 7.3 billion in unrealized profits and are still adding positions. Both sides are betting real money; who is right or wrong will start to be answered tomorrow.
My judgment: The earnings report itself is fine, even very good. But the short-term stock price depends not on performance but on how many of those 900 million shares unlocking will be sold. Employees and early investors have costs far below the current price, so even if the stock price halves, selling still yields multiple returns. Shorts are waiting for this moment.
At this point, I won't chase the stock up nor short it. Chasing up means the selling pressure from unlocking hasn't landed yet. Shorting is risky because short positions are already extremely crowded and could be squeezed at any time. I'll wait for the unlocking to settle and the chips to change hands before assessing real supply and demand. A good company doesn't equal a good price, and a good price doesn't equal a good timing. I repeatedly return to the macro perspective because it often explains the true trend direction better than a single-day candlestick.
The latest US ISM Services PMI again exceeded expectations, showing economic resilience stronger than most predicted. But what is truly intriguing is that after the data release, Treasury yields still chose to move downward. The signal this combination sends is very clear: the market is simultaneously pricing in "the economy is not bad" and "inflation is easing," and believes the Federal Reserve still has room to cut rates later this year.
For the crypto market, this is a rare friendly formula. Lower yields directly improve liquidity conditions and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets; meanwhile, continued expansion in the services sector weakens the recession narrative's persuasiveness. The resonance of these two forces builds a more solid macro foundation for risk assets than in previous months.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin is very likely to benefit from a rebound in institutional allocation demand—declining long-term rates will make the "digital gold" scarcity narrative more attractive; Ethereum may regain funding attention as DeFi, tokenization, and on-chain infrastructure activity recover.
From the perspective of Brazilian investors, these global macro trends are as important as the local market. Liquidity knows no borders; when US financial conditions improve, the impact transmits to the global digital asset market through exchange rates, interest rate differentials, and risk sentiment.
Next, keep a close eye on three things: inflation data, Federal Reserve officials' statements, and the battle for the yield trendline. For now, the macro backdrop supports the long-term narrative for crypto assets more than a few months ago—but the premise is that inflation does not relapse.
Trends emerge in ambiguity and end in clarity. We are still in a stage that requires patient verification.
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Macro #Fed #USWeighsIranStrike #DailyOrbit #AMDQ2BeatDebate #Investin ⚠️🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, and the war premium has been completely drained
· Bassent: An agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz may be reached as early as tomorrow
· Rubio: Negotiations have made progress; Iran's stance has softened, considering allowing Europe to enter the strait for mine clearance
· WTI down 5% intraday, falling back to $74.66; European stocks Stoxx600 hit a new high for July
When oil crashes, the logic of "war = inflation = rate hikes" loosens. Half a month ago, the market feared that rising oil prices would push inflation up and force the Fed not to cut rates; now this downward catalyst is being dismantled one by one, and risk assets are collectively breathing a sigh of relief—FANG +6%, Intel +10%.
The only one still pretending to sleep is crypto. $BTC stubbornly clings to 64K, not following risk assets when they rise, but falling when they fall. This "falling with the market but not rising with it" divergence is the signal to watch now—the narrative favors the bulls, but the price hasn't caught on.
Don't rush to translate macro positives into buying reasons. Wait for BTC to find its own direction before deciding whether to follow. Let's watch 🧊
Personal views for reference only, not investment advice.
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元 📊 $RE Contract Liquidation Express (August 5)
According to liquidation data, short-term shorts were crushed hard, but mid-to-long-term longs suffered a bloodbath...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $234.93
Long liquidations about $0
Short liquidations about $234.93
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $4,340.57
Long liquidations about $4,097.67
Short liquidations about $242.90
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $25,600
Long liquidations about $23,400
Short liquidations about $2,192.68
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $64,000
Long liquidations about $57,700
Short liquidations about $6,274.21
From $RE liquidation data, in 1 hour shorts liquidations crushed longs, shorts were 234 times longs, a short squeeze blitz start; in 4 hours the direction suddenly reversed, long liquidations crushed shorts, longs were 16.8 times shorts, a full-scale long liquidation outbreak; in 12 hours long advantage continued, ratio about 10.6 times, long liquidation ran through short and mid cycles; in 24 hours long advantage narrowed, ratio about 9.2 times, short resistance slightly strengthened in long cycle but was insignificant. The market makers on RE completed a fierce turnaround from short squeeze to long liquidation — short-term short chasers were targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term long chasers were wiped out, cumulative liquidation exceeded $64,000. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 5
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: the market is repricing in the harshest way — "beat expectations" has become the passing line, any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ From rate cuts to hikes, Fed divisions fully exposed
The July Fed minutes revealed a rare internal split among decision-makers. Of 19 officials, 9 believed at least one rate hike is needed this year (6 of them thought two hikes), while another 9 expected rates to stay unchanged or cut. New Chair Waller refused to submit his own forecast, completely abandoning "forward guidance."
By the July 29 meeting, the split moved from paper to ballot box — 9 votes for, 3 against keeping rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Three regional Fed presidents voted against, advocating an immediate 25 basis point hike. This was the first time since 2016 that three consistent dissenting votes appeared.
The core of the division is inflation. Some officials believe AI demand, energy shocks, and tariffs are pushing inflation stickiness; others see economic weakness. After the minutes release, fed funds futures implied about a 60% chance of a September hike.
📊 AMD and SpaceX: beat expectations, then plunge
AMD delivered a "high score" but still fell over 9% after hours. Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% YoY, a record high; data center revenue was $6.7 billion, up 107% YoY, accounting for 58% of revenue. The problem was "not perfect enough" — Q3 guidance was above analyst expectations but still failed to satisfy some aggressive investors.
SpaceX’s first earnings also beat expectations but plunged 7% after hours. Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92% YoY; net loss narrowed from $1 billion to $541 million. The culprit for the plunge was capital expenditure — AI-related spending surged to $18.4 billion. The market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash.
🚀 Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours up 13%
In the same earnings storm, Palantir was one of the few winners. Q2 revenue was $1.94 billion, up 93% YoY; net profit $1.06 billion, EPS $0.41, far exceeding the expected $0.35. US commercial revenue surged 149% YoY to $764 million. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to about $8.15 billion. After-hours surged 13%-15%.
CEO Karp said bluntly: "Strong growth can continue for 18 more months."
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: the Fed’s internal split from "cut or hike" moved to an open break in the ballot box; AMD and SpaceX proved AI demand is real with record revenues but were punished by the market for "not perfect enough"; only Palantir — with 93% growth and 149% US commercial growth — tells the market that the real winners of the AI narrative are those who can convert technology into real commercial revenue. When "beat expectations" has become the minimum requirement, the AI track is moving from "storytelling" to "delivering results." #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ Still asking where to put $BTC, I suggest you stop buying—you don't deserve to make money from it. I just saw CZ and Willy Woo arguing from afar—it's practically the annual drama in the crypto world. One is a founder of an exchange who has served time in prison, the other is an on-chain analyst who advocates self-custody—the two of them compete to see who is safer. Speak loudly, this fire is really blazing. I understand Willy Woo's self-custody philosophy—with the private key, I own the world. But the recent mess with Coldcard's wallet hasn't been cleaned up yet—even hardware wallets are causing trouble—how am I supposed to believe that? I'm not trying to whitewash the exchange, I just think ordinary people who use self-custody are much more likely to lose their private keys than the exchange running away. CZ spoke too bluntly—it hit hard but was real. Most people don't even back up mnemonic phrases; they take screenshots to save in photo albums, write them in their phone notes, or even paste them on sticky notes. This kind of self-custody isn't courting death, what is? The exchange at least shielded you once. I don't think there's any absolute right or wrong in this matter. It's only natural for big players to use cold wallets, but for retail investors, the small positions on top platforms like Binance and OKX aren't that scary. Don't be brainwashed by the lofty feeling of self-care all day; first ask yourself if you can hold onto those 12 words. Human nature is the weakest link; technology always takes the blame for humanity. #世界杯收官: Spain wins the championship #谷歌特斯拉Q2财报今夜见分晓 #加密行情回暖, Bitcoin rises The most awkward thing about AMD this time is: the growth is really strong, but the market seems to have already celebrated in advance.
Data center revenue doubled, AI chip demand hasn't stopped, and the full-year guidance isn't bad either. The problem is that the stock price has already played out a big part of the "AMD catching up with Nvidia" script earlier. Now that the earnings report is out, investors are not just asking if you have growth, but whether you have exceeded the most optimistic version in their minds.
This is very harsh.
A good company doesn't equal a good buying opportunity, and exceeding expectations doesn't necessarily mean the stock will rise. The bar for AI stocks has now been raised to an exaggerated level: you can't just submit good work, you have to submit work that makes everyone revise their imagination upward.
AMD didn't lose because of performance, it lost because the market's appetite was too big.
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
After SpaceX's latest earnings report was released, the market showed clear divergence: on one hand, the company's revenue growth exceeded expectations, and the Starlink business continued to expand; on the other hand, significant AI investments, profit pressures, and the anticipation of share unlocks have led investors to reassess SpaceX's short-term value.
From a performance perspective, SpaceX's fundamentals remain strong. The company's quarterly revenue reached approximately $7.8 billion, showing significant year-over-year growth, mainly driven by the Starlink satellite internet business, while AI-related operations have also become a new growth direction. The continuous expansion of Starlink's user base proves that SpaceX has gradually transformed from a traditional aerospace company into a "satellite internet + AI infrastructure" company.
But why isn't the market fully excited?
The core reason is:
Growth is rapid, but investments are even greater.
Currently, SpaceX is advancing long-term projects such as AI computing power, satellite networks, and Starship, all requiring sustained large capital investments. In the short term, high capital expenditures will suppress profit performance, and the market is beginning to focus on whether future investments can translate into stable cash flow.
Another key factor is the "unlock pressure."
After the IPO, some restricted shares will soon enter the market, increasing tradable supply. For any rapidly rising new stock, unlocks bring short-term pressure because early investors may choose to realize gains.
However, from a long-term perspective, SpaceX still holds enormous potential.
First, Starlink is becoming a stable cash flow business.
Second, the combination of AI and space infrastructure could open new industrial opportunities.
Third, SpaceX's business model has proven that the aerospace industry can transition from government projects to market-driven operations.
For the crypto community, SpaceX's impact is more reflected in "risk appetite."
If the market continues to favor AI and tech growth, capital may remain active, supporting risk assets like BTC and ETH; but if tech stocks adjust due to valuation pressures, the crypto market may also be affected by sentiment transmission.
From a trading perspective, SpaceX currently resembles a "growth story validation period."
Short-term focus:
Whether there is significant selling pressure after the unlock;
Whether AI investments bring actual revenue growth;
Whether Starlink's commercialization pace continues.
Long-term focus:
Space economy;
AI computing infrastructure;
Global satellite communication networks.
In summary:
SpaceX's issue is not a lack of growth, but that the market has already priced in very high expectations.
The key to future stock price movement lies not in how big the story is, but whether revenue growth can outpace capital investment.
One-sentence comment:
SpaceX is transforming from a rocket company into a future technology infrastructure company, but what the capital market ultimately pays for is growth realization capability, not just pure imagination space.