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#SMUBARAK
Why is it rising? How much higher can it go?
My long position has already gained over +2000%, with the current price around 0.076.
Why is it rising?
First, the launch of the perpetual contract was the direct trigger. Aster announced the launch of the MUBARAK perpetual contract, supporting up to 5x leverage. Subsequently, the price quickly surged from $0.013 to $0.03, an increase of over 100%. The leverage funds and trading interest brought by the new contract product directly drove this rally.
Second, the funding rate turned from negative to positive, and shorts started paying. Previously, the average funding rate for MUBARAK was negative (about -0.0051%), meaning shorts dominated. With the price rising, the funding rate structure is switching; once the negative rate turns positive, it will trigger a larger scale of forced liquidations.
How much higher can it go?
The 0.076 level is not the end. Looking upward, the 0.09 to 0.10 range is the next psychological and technical resistance zone, but given the current funding momentum and short covering demand, the probability of breaking through and continuing to rise is high. This rally, driven jointly by leveraged funds and short squeezes, will maintain upward momentum as long as spot buying does not sharply retreat. The most important thing is not to guess the top but to hold your current position, raise your take-profit line, and let the profits keep running.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Elon Musk said that in the future there will be one-person companies everywhere, with one person managing tens of thousands of robots.
My first reaction wasn’t excitement, but frustration.
What does that have to do with me as a short-term trader? He’s talking about ten years from now, while I’m focused on the K-line ten minutes ahead.
The result is, I’ve chased these big trends before. Last time I heard about the "productivity revolution," I rushed into the AI concept and got stuck for half a month. The lesson is simple: the big players talk about civilization, while I’m playing liquidity, with several rounds of shakeouts in between.
The easiest misunderstanding for retail investors is to mistake "what the future will be like" for "what to buy now."
By the time one person manages tens of thousands of robots, my current position might not even cover the transaction fees.
So, what do you think? Should we watch this kind of news or avoid it?
#AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨
#闪迪纳入标普100，焦点转向AI需求 #纳斯达克指数连续两日创历史新高 $BTC Let's take a look at Solana.
The current price is about 120, and the outlook hasn't changed. Resistance is still expected between 140 and 180. If you had short positions before and were patient, theoretically you could hold on and wait for the resistance zone, but given the current situation, you might need to hold for a long time — meaning the time cost could be extended, not that you should ignore risks and keep averaging down indefinitely.
Altcoins and the overall market: Bitcoin's framework remains bullish after a breakout, with pullbacks in the range to consider going long again. Solana, however, is not suitable for using "rushing to short" as the only strategy. Remember the resistance at 140–180; only when it really reaches that level should you discuss whether and how to act.
On the supply side, on Monday Solana spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $26 million, small but positive; on the contract side, this wave also experienced short squeezes and leverage rebuilding. When open interest rises, both longs and shorts tend to get crowded, and pullbacks can suddenly become fierce.
On the news front, on-chain activity and DEX trading data can serve as background information but should not be reasons to chase the current price.
In summary, be conservative: do not open new positions yet, close old shorts if possible. Strictly take profits and cut losses, and reevaluate at 140–180; do not rush to exit early.Today, high Beta once again left the broader market behind: HYPE directly hit a new all-time high, XRP surged to around 1.57, and FET also reclaimed the 0.20 level. The issue is no longer about whether there is capital, but after continuous acceleration, who can turn the breakout into support, and who will be the first to take profits.
#HighBetaContinuesToAccelerate
#SmallCapsEnterHighLevelBattle
$HYPE is currently around 97.1, with today's high at 97.84 setting a new all-time high. The 95–96 range has become the first pullback zone; as long as this holds, the new high structure remains intact. Once it firmly stands above 98, the next target is 100. The new high coin has no trapped positions, but the biggest risk is a quick drop back to 95 after a volume-driven surge.
$XRP is currently around 1.57, with yesterday's high at 1.574. The 1.52–1.54 range is now the first defense; looking upward, 1.58 is the first breakout target, and once firmly above that, 1.60–1.65 is next. It has risen over 20% in the past week, clearly no longer a low-level recovery.
$FET is currently around 0.209, with 0.202–0.205 as the first support zone. The 0.210–0.213 range is the first breakout target, and then 0.22 is next.
This lineup: HYPE holds 95, XRP waits for 1.58, FET waits for 0.213. High Beta now has no shortage of stories; what it truly lacks is whether there is a second wave of capital willing to step in at these high levels. $BTC is now at 87085, up 1.8% in 24 hours, rising from 85070 to 87245. I don't know how many shorts got liquidated in this surge.
I've seen too many people get liquidated in this kind of market, including myself. The time I lost 200,000U was because I shorted against the uptrend without a stop loss, thinking "It has risen so much, it must correct," but the price kept rising and I kept adding positions, ending with a one-click wipeout.
Now I have set three iron rules for myself: First, halve the position size when trading against the trend; if opening a 5000U position, only use 2500U against the trend. Second, always use a stop loss and never move it; admit the mistake if wrong. Third, stop trading after two consecutive losses; never revenge trade.
Specifically for the current market: $BTC current price 87085, resistance at 87245, support at 87000. Go long with the trend, buy on pullback near 87000, stop loss at 86700, target 87800. If shorting, only try a small position when under pressure at 87245, stop loss at 87500, target 87000, and always use a stop loss; never hold losing positions.
There is only one reason for liquidation: you think you won't get liquidated. $ #AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨 🧠 On-chain never lies.
Strategy added 950 BTC at an average ~$79.7K, while Strive bought another 1,355 BTC. Meanwhile, BitMine added 27.6K ETH, with most of its holdings staked.
Exchange balances are also declining, suggesting more coins are moving off the market.
But BTC is still struggling around the $77K–$80K zone, so accumulation doesn’t guarantee an immediate breakout.
The common theme: coins are leaving circulation, but patience is still needed.
$BTC $ETH $UNI
DYOR.I stared at the 1.0548 number for a long time. The last time I seriously reviewed FIL was when it was falling toward 0.9462. At that time, I judged the 7-day low couldn't hold and planned to sell after breaking below 0.94. But I was wrong—not only did I fail to break it, but I even rebounded from the 7-day 29.23%. Now it's above 1.05, with a 24-hour high of 1.0648. I was wrong by treating every rebound above the historical low of 0.612413 as a bullish inducement, ignoring the slower, more solid slope of the 30-day 39.42%. What did I see? Current price is 1.0548, up 5.51% in 24 hours, trading volume is 103.46 million USDT, and the funding rate is only 0.00002310, almost zero. This combination is crucial: the price is rising, leverage hasn't overheated, indicating this wave isn't driven by contract force. Open interest 17.4 million, circulating market cap 875 million USDT, ranked 86th globally, circulating supply 830 million, FDV 2.06 billion. Compared to ATH 236.84, it's still -99.56% from the top, and only +71.95% away from ATL 0.612413. Put these two numbers together, it's FIL's awkward situation right now: it's fallen too deep, so the rebound is highly elastic; But it's too far from historical highs, so any rebound is first seen as a correction, not a trend. The market is moderate today$UNI 🚀
I misjudged it—UNI broke above $9.5 and pushed to $10.8 as positive news boosted momentum.
$9.5 was the key level; now $11 is the next major area to watch. Liquidity above remains relatively thin, so volatility could stay high.
My UNI accumulation view remains unchanged, but the rising floor means entries need to be adjusted.
Strong momentum, but don’t blindly chase. Manage position size and DYOR.
$UNI #OKXPlanet$ZEC stands above 1600. Shorts are bleeding, the story is accelerating.
Grayscale's fifth amendment application has put "The Zcash ETF" on the NYSE Arca table, with a 2.5% annual fee. DCG plans to inject 200,000 ZEC in exchange for about 34% equity. The $25 million seed round led by Paradigm has long been secured, and the privacy narrative has shifted from "regulatory outcast" to an asset institutions are willing to price. Community voting shows 98.9% retention of halving, 99.9% support for reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and the NU7 upgrade is scheduled for November 5.
Shorts have become fuel. The largest short position on Hyperliquid once had an unrealized loss exceeding $33 million. Garrett Jin ultimately closed the position with about a $36 million loss, and the market price rebound pushed the price from 1490 to 1530.
The logic is simple: compliance channels are opening + the core team has received top-tier venture capital funding to restart + shorts are forced to support the price.
But leverage is building too fast. The open interest of perpetual contracts continues to climb, with new positions entering as shorts are liquidated. This structure means the pullback won't be gentle. If 1500 doesn't hold, the next phase will be a script of leveraged chain liquidations.
Don't catch the knife at the peak of emotion.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 Don't rush to shout that the bull market is back; first look clearly at who is pushing the market. BTC rose only 1.19% in 24 hours, ETH rose 1.28%, the market was lukewarm like a subway during Monday morning rush hour. BCH went straight to +28.35%, from 261.0 to 350.0, a 7-day increase of 54.40%, and 30-day 26.14%. This is not a broad-based rally; this is a single-point explosion, a capital picking soft targets. Trading volume 383946785 USDT, sounds impressive, but the open interest is only 102,843.99. What does that number mean? The money being pumped far exceeds the positions retained, a typical fast-in, quick-exit strategy. The funding rate is 0.00010000, almost flying close to the ground, indicating that bulls didn't dare to use leverage to chase the market. Everyone knows this is an emotional pulse, not a trend start. If it were a faith deposit, the rate would have soared long ago. Now let's look at the status. The circulating market cap 6814900447 USDT, ranked 21st globally, sounds impressive and still prestigious. But FDV 6814997957 is almost zero with circulating market cap, meaning there are no unlocked selling pressure mines and no new stories to tell. All-time high was 3785.82, now 340.0, -91.04%, halved again and again. Climbing from ATL 76.93 up +340.91%, sounds like a turnaround, but it's really just moving from the floor to the basement door. The label of a veteran forkcoin can be translated as: once trying to replace BTC, now relying on BTC for a living. Once BTC stabilizes a bit, hot money overflowsLet's take a look at the Ethereum part.
The current price is about 2,780, and the outlook remains unchanged. The next short-term target is still 3,300; as long as it doesn't break below 2,300, there is still a chance to challenge the upside. For now, consider the range between 2,300 and 3,300.
Remember the structure, but don't rush your moves. Handle any old short positions that need to be dealt with; don't stubbornly stick to old logic. Now is not the time to blindly open positions just because the daily chart looks good—first, clarify your exit strategy.
On the capital side, on Monday, the spot Ethereum ETF also absorbed about 270 million USD in a single day, flowing back alongside Bitcoin on the same day. Institutional funds are somewhat positive, but if contract leverage stacks up, volatility will increase; capital inflow does not mean you can blindly chase longs at the current price.
Regarding news, ecological cooperation announcements can be treated as background information, not reasons to enter positions. Overall, the stance remains conservative: do not open new positions yet, and it is recommended to close old short positions first. Wait until clear support is encountered near 2,300 or a position to act on is formed around the 3,300 resistance zone before considering entry. Strictly set take-profit and stop-loss; if no stop-loss is set, consider the trade as not done.Three days of net inflow, BlackRock alone consumed half
Ethereum spot ETF added another $162 million yesterday, for three consecutive days.
The data looks like this: BlackRock's ETHA had a single-day inflow of 88.13 million, Fidelity's FETH only 33.63 million.
What are they betting on: In the cumulative inflow over three days, ETHA alone accounted for more than half, implying the remaining seven or eight firms share the leftover crumbs.
Is the buying side supported by just one buyer?
Follow or not: The ETF net asset ratio is only 5.34%, indicating institutions still hold light positions.
But light positions also mean they can keep buying anytime or stop anytime.
I'm still holding spot, no change in direction.
Are these three days truly demand, or just quarter-end accounting? What do you think?
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ #纳斯达克指数连续两日创历史新高 $ETH The market is green today, but I’m asking a different question:
How broad is the move?
$BTC is strong.
$ETH is strong.
$SOL is strong.
Other major altcoins are participating too.
If that continues, the market structure becomes much more interesting.
If everything quickly fades, today's excitement may have been mostly momentum.
Watching breadth today.
#Crypto #BTC #ETH #SOLDo you know what the most painful thing in trading is? It's not losing money, it's watching $BTC rise from 85,000 to 87,085 while you hold no position.
This kind of missed opportunity pain is even harder to bear than losing money. When you lose money, at least you took action; when you miss out, you don't even get the chance to act, you can only slap your thigh in regret. When I lost 200,000 U before, half of it was because I chased high after missing out, got trapped, held the position, and then got liquidated.
Now $BTC is priced at 87,085, resistance at 87,245, support at 87,000. This level is indeed a bit high to go long, but that doesn't mean you can't trade. My approach is: open a position with 5,000 U, wait for a pullback near 87,000 to go long, stop loss at 86,700, target 87,800. If it breaks through 87,245 without pulling back, then go long with a small position, stop loss at 86,900, target 88,000.
Missing out is not scary; what's scary is losing your rationality and chasing highs after missing out. Remember, the market never lacks opportunities; it lacks patience. $BTC #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ 24小时成交额1272896342 USDT，资金费率却只有0.00003093。这个数字放在7日涨幅23.10%的背景下，像一道解不开的谜题。Solana现价119.06 USDT，24小时涨2.03%，盘中最高119.64、最低115.52，看起来风平浪静，但把时间轴拉长到7天，低点111.23到高点119.96，区间振幅接近8个点，30日涨幅27.65%。价格在往上走，杠杆情绪却没有跟上。 先看多头最在意的几个数。流通市值70288548394 USDT，全球第7；流通量587507127枚，FDV 75914392124 USDT，两者差值约562亿……不，是5625843790 USDT的差距，说明还有约7.4%的供应没有释放到流通盘里。持仓量3078698.66，按现价折算约3.66亿USDT的合约敞口，对应12.7亿的24小时现货成交额，杠杆倍数并不夸张。 真正反常的是资金费率。0.00003093，换算成常见表达就是0.003093%，几乎贴着零轴。7日涨23.10%、30日涨27.65%的标的，多头愿意支付的溢价却低到可以忽略。通常这种涨幅伴随的费率会在0.01%以上The whale has withdrawn another 8,100 ZEC from Binance and OKX, with six related addresses now holding 34,510 ZEC, worth about 55.71 million USD, at a cost of 1,474 USD, yielding an unrealized profit of 4.82 million.
The average withdrawal price keeps rising; this doesn’t look like arbitrage at all, it’s clearly slow-cooking themselves, simmering for three months and still not done 😇 Who do you think will drink this pot of soup in the end?
$BTC $ETH $ZECCollective short squeeze crematorium, retail investors panic chasing highs
$BTC is now steady around 86000 catching its breath, yesterday it once touched 87000, looks strong right? But frankly, this rally is just a "false boom" driven by the $1 billion net inflow from ETFs forcing shorts to liquidate. 86000 is the lifeline now; if it holds, it can still bounce, if not, it's a fake breakout. Don't get carried away, chasing longs here is like catching a flying knife, wait for a pullback confirmation before acting.
$ETH’s rally this time is a bit half-hearted, hovering around 2750, weaker than Bitcoin. Fortunately, BlackRock’s ETHA has started seeing capital inflow, so institutions haven’t completely abandoned it. But the ETH/BTC ratio is still flat, indicating funds don’t really treat it as the main dish.
$USELESS Bonk Guy came back to tweet, causing a direct 35% surge, market cap hitting 340 million, plus a mysterious new wallet scooped up $2.28 million worth. It’s thrilling to rise and even more thrilling to fall; this kind of token is a race on who runs fastest, so think carefully if you can accept total loss before entering.
$ZEC is the big player today, breaking through $1600, with over $13 million liquidated in 4 hours, ranking first on the whole network, all shorts being taken out. The privacy narrative has indeed attracted funds recently, plus the small market cap makes the rally fierce. But be cautious, these short squeeze rallies often end in a mess; it rose 10% in 24 hours, don’t rush in impulsively, wait for a pullback to see if it can hold $1500.Continuing from the previous point, October market analysis
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Scenario ②: High-level oscillation, sideways range (not unlikely)
Trigger conditions
ETF funds flow in and out intermittently, no sustained large inflows; inflation data fluctuates, Federal Reserve statements lean hawkish; regulatory news vacuum, no strong catalysts.
Scenario ③: Deep correction in October (a risk scenario not to be ignored)
Trigger conditions (any one could ignite it)
1. ETF funds shift from inflows to sustained net redemptions;
2. US CPI rebounds beyond expectations, Federal Reserve officials release hawkish remarks, rate cut expectations delayed;
3. SEC introduces tightened regulatory policies;
4. Large whale sell-offs + high leverage cascading liquidations.
Key core variables to watch in October (by priority)
1. Daily spot ETF fund flows (most important): sustained net inflows are the foundation for a bull market continuation; once there are consecutive days of large outflows, the market can easily weaken
2. US inflation CPI, Federal Reserve speeches, US Treasury yields, US dollar index, which determine the global liquidity environment
3. SEC, CFTC regulatory announcements; October has regulatory opinion solicitation points, news will cause intense volatility
4. Network-wide contract leverage, long-short ratio, liquidation data: current leverage has already increased, amplifying volatility
5. US stock Nasdaq, COIN and other crypto concept stocks linked sentiment$ONE just won't come down.
The funding fees can absolutely destroy people here. I wouldn't touch it—the volatility is too extreme, and the market feels heavily manipulated. Also, check how long the contract delisting delay is going to last.
The volume isn't fading, yet the price still refuses to drop. How long can this keep going?
$USELESS is honestly terrifyingly strong.#DailyOrbit 我們來看一下比特幣的部分。 現價約 87,100，看法沒變。已經有效過五月高點 83,000，長線上有理由偏多；但不能因為又往上衝就現在追高。 點位沒變。長線區間仍看 77,000 到 97,000，區間裡若出現回落，我們可以考慮做多。下一波若再上去，至少看 95,000，甚至可能去 100,000 插一根針。這是方向框架，不是叫你現價硬開。 籌碼面上，週一美國現貨比特幣 ETF 單日淨流入約近 10 億美元，機構端回流很明顯；同時合約端先前空頭清算後，未平倉又往上堆，屬於軋空之後槓桿重建。資金來了、槓桿也熱，短線可以很兇，回撤也可以很快。所以更要把「看法偏多」跟「現在能不能開單」分開看。 消息面上，市場也在傳美國財政部制裁相關加密管道的新聞，這類監管消息容易讓短線情緒抖一下，但不改變我們的區間框架。操作上還是偏保守：先不要急著開新單，舊空建議先平。嚴格止盈止損，等回落到支撐帶、或壓力帶整理清楚再介入。Up 15.53% in seven days, up 13.61% in thirty days, yet the price still stands 43.90% below the all-time high — is ETH climbing out of a pit, or is it about to fall again right after climbing out? Let's first look at today's market. Current price is 2772.87 USDT, up only 1.28% in 24 hours, almost tracking Bitcoin's 1.19%. But don't be fooled by this small bullish candle; the 24-hour high reached 2783.74, while the low dropped to 2714.02, with an intraday swing close to $70. More worth noting is the 7-day range: low at 2645.01, high at 2806.96, meaning ETH has climbed over $160 out of the pit in the past week, and today it’s just catching its breath near the upper boundary. Trading volume is there: 6.817 billion USDT in 24 hours, circulating market cap at 338.7 billion USDT, firmly holding the global second position. Funding rate is 0.00006472, almost right above zero — bulls aren’t overly excited, bears haven’t dared to heavily short. Open interest is 608,544.25, which isn’t exaggerated, indicating leveraged funds are still cautious, with no one-sided crowding. The real suspense lies in two numbers. First, the current price is just a step away from the 7-day high of 2806.96; a breakout means a new acceleration phase, a false breakout means a double top pullback. Second, the all-time high of 4946.05 is like a distant mountain; the 43.90% discount makes many think it’s “cheap,” but don’t forget the ATL at 0.432979, +64 ZECUSDT Trend Forecast (Current Price 1612.41)
Overall Conclusion: The previous high resistance zone has been broken through; the short-term short squeeze rally is still ongoing, but the risk of a tail drop steepens as the price rises; the mid-term positive catalyst realization window is approaching, beware of a pullback after a surge; the long-term narrative remains but is highly tied to the overall market and regulation.
Short-term (1~5 trading days)
- Resistance range: 1650~1680 (primary strong resistance), extreme test possible at 1720~1750
Intraday volume surge pushed price above the 1600 psychological level, shorts continue to be stopped out; as long as BTC holds above 85000 and privacy sector sentiment remains, there is still momentum for further upside;
However, market features: contract funding rates keep rising, leverage longs accumulate rapidly, short squeeze volatility becomes more extreme, daily pullbacks of 8%~12% can occur anytime, absolutely not suitable for chasing highs or adding positions.
- Support range: 1560~1580 (previous resistance turned support), 1490~1520 (strong support zone)
If price breaks below 1560 with volume and falls back, it indicates short-term short squeeze momentum exhaustion, leading to a rapid correction as profit-taking concentrates.
Trading strategy: For holders, take partial profits in batches between 1650-1680, keep a small position to speculate on 1700+; lightly buy rebounds near 1560 support, never chase highs.
Mid-term (2~4 weeks, until November NU7 upgrade launch)
Key event: NU7 mainnet upgrade (expected November 5), current price has priced in most expectations in advance, a typical "buy the rumor" scenario.
Two scenarios:
1. Optimistic: smooth upgrade + BTC continues bull run, ZEC oscillates in a large 1500~1750 range, tests 1750 then digests profit-taking repeatedly;
2. Cautious: upgrade benefit realized + market weakens, heavy profit-taking leads to deep pullback to 1300~1400 range, completing correction of this rally.
Important reminder: The core driver of this rally is short squeeze + narrative speculation, not a fundamental breakthrough; once shorts are cleared and benefits realized, a "sell the news" rapid plunge is likely, ending the one-sided rally.
Long-term (3~6 months)
Bullish logic
1. Grayscale ZEC spot ETF continues operation, institutional funds provide long-term support, new ETFs like Bitwise still have approval potential;
2. After NU7 launch, ZSA privacy assets and shielded smart contracts go live, expanding privacy sector application boundaries;
3. Fixed total supply of 21 million, inflation continues to decline post-halving, scarcity logic holds long-term.
Major risks
1. Regulatory risk: Privacy coins remain under global regulatory pressure, any targeted restrictions can trigger sharp crashes;
2. Market risk: As a highly elastic altcoin, if BTC enters mid-term correction, ZEC’s decline will significantly exceed the market;
3. Narrative exhaustion: ETF and NU7 major catalysts mostly priced in, lacking new large-scale triggers.
Long-term price range forecast
- Bull market continuation + regulatory friendliness: upper limit $1800~$2000;
- Market correction + benefit realization: pullback to $1100~$1350 range.
Swing trading reference
- Long liquidation zones (triggered by price drop): 1560~1580 (moderate long liquidation); 1490~1520 (large-scale long liquidation); below 1420 excessive long liquidation
- Short liquidation zones (triggered by price rise): 1650~1680 (moderate short stop-loss); above 1720 large-scale short liquidation
- Trading principle: avoid heavy positions and holding at all costs, focus on swing trading, take profits in batches on rallies, buy in batches on dips; strictly control leverage positions, high volatility easily triggers stop-loss.
Market observation: Intraday coin divergence is extreme, narrative-driven coins like ZEC, MUBARAK continue to rally, small caps like ONE sharply pull back over 13%, chasing small caps is very risky, funds clearly concentrate on mainstream altcoins with fundamental/narrative support.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#ZEC再创新高，估值重估受关注
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#ZEC刷新历史新高，NU7升级预期受关注 I confess, during this $BTC rise from 85,000 to 87,085, I only caught half of it.
Why? Because when it hit 86,000, I thought it had risen too much and would pull back, so I closed my long position early and even opened a short, but the market taught me a lesson. This is my old bad habit that caused me to lose 200,000 U before—I always thought I was smarter than the market, always trying to guess the top and bottom.
Now the current price is 87,085, resistance at 87,245, support at 87,000. I've admitted my mistake, stopped out my short position and exited, and am back on the long side. Opening a 5,000 U position, buying on a pullback near 87,000, stop loss at 86,700, target 87,800. If it breaks 87,245, add to the long position, stop loss at 86,900, target 88,500.
Confession is not the goal, change is. I used to think I could predict the market, now I only do one thing: follow the market, set stop losses properly, and don’t hold losing positions. $BTC #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ What’s the outlook for Bitcoin next? Technically, it’s still slightly strong in the short term. On the daily chart, it dipped to a low of 85000 then pulled back, closing with a small bearish doji. The key point is that 84500 wasn’t broken, indicating it’s just taking a breather after a strong rise, and the bullish structure remains intact. On the weekly chart, it’s above the MA120 and has finally broken through the 82800 resistance level after several attempts—the sixth attempt succeeded. The structure is gradually shifting from a correction to a Wave B rebound. The previous Wave A moved from 65000 to 76000, so momentum is still there.
Next, watch the previous high at 87358. If it consolidates sideways and then breaks through, there’s room to go higher; if it can’t break through, be cautious of a pullback after a spike. The short-term strategy is still to buy on dips—see if buyers step in around 85000. As long as the dip isn’t deep and the structure holds, expect new highs. But if it falls below 85000, don’t stubbornly stay long; 84500 is the risk line. Whether in futures or spot, move stop losses up, reduce positions if broken, and pocket profits first. This is my personal view, not investment advice.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Midday Review｜Eating meat while holding positions, this is the most tormenting part of high leverage🔥
The midday market shows clear divergence, one position in heaven, one in abyss.
✅$HYPE｜20x full position long
Entry 73.897, current price 97.43, unrealized profit +3531U, return rate 483.19%
Whale longs cluster, long-short ratio 335.11%, long profit ratio 98%, funds continuously pushing up, market momentum maxed out. Watching profits grow easily creates the illusion that the market will keep rising forever.
❌$BICO｜8x full position long
Entry 0.03495, current price 0.0228, unrealized loss -1226U, return rate -426.28%
Slight oscillation rebound, but short positions still larger, rebound weak, continuously trapped, can only passively hold.
Margin ratio of the two positions only 3.79%, account risk extremely high.
Overall account profit on paper, but unrealized gains are just paper wealth; a big correction can instantly wipe out all profits and even trigger forced liquidation.
Many only see the profitable positions but overlook the hidden risks buried in trapped positions. The hardest part of trading is not catching a rally, but knowing when to stop during the frenzy.
I want to ask everyone: when facing such one winning and one losing position, would you choose to take profit on the winning one to cover the loss, or just cut off the trapped position?
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 The long-rumored and widely discussed narrative about $CORE being tightly bound to Bitcoin is now broken down into three steps: 1. The core flaw in the narrative (key and the root cause of the current price pressure) 1. Core is not a Bitcoin layer-2/sidechain; BTC hash power is only "voting power," and the Bitcoin mainnet does not back Core. Bitcoin miners only vote voluntarily and can stop voting for Core at any time. If miners massively withdraw, Core's network security will collapse immediately. Bitcoin's underlying consensus does not protect the Core chain at all; Core is an independent L1 public chain, not a Bitcoin subsidiary chain. There is no security anchoring relationship. 2. It is not value-anchored; CORE price and BTC are only correlated, with no redemption guarantee. Many misunderstand that CORE is value-anchored to BTC. The reality: CORE is only narratively tied to BTC, with no mechanism to exchange CORE for BTC; when BTC rises, CORE tends to follow, but when BTC falls, CORE often drops much more, making it a highly volatile speculative token. 3. The hard fork incident severely damaged the core narrative of "BTC hash power brings security"! On August 31, a reward replay vulnerability appeared in the underlying protocol, requiring an urgent hard fork fix. This vulnerability occurred in Core's own protocol code, and Bitcoin hash power cannot defend against Core's own underlying vulnerabilities. This directly shattered the claim of "security guaranteed by Bitcoin hash power" and was a key event causing institutional and large holder confidence to collapse. 4. Product rollout fell short of expectations. As the narrative core In the $BTC $ETH $SOL market, October is often called Uptober (rising October). Historically, October has a higher probability of closing up, but this is only a historical statistical pattern and not a certainty. October saw declines in 2014, 2018, and 2025; history does not determine the future.
Three scenarios for Bitcoin in October
Current price range: high-level oscillation between $84,000–$87,000, with many profit-taking positions and accumulating contract leverage.
Scenario ①: Uptober materializes, oscillating upward (mainstream market optimistic expectation)
Trigger conditions
1. Continuous net inflows in spot ETFs;
2. No spike in US Treasury yields or the dollar, with Fed rate cut expectations maintained;
3. US regulatory news is neutral to friendly, with no major negative news;
4. US stock market risk appetite remains stable, with no major drops.
Trend path
In early October, continue oscillating between $83,000–$88,000 to shake out stop losses on both sides; mid-October sees a volume breakout above $88,000, then testing the $90,000–$95,000 range upward.
Characteristics: Not a one-sided straight rally; multiple rapid pullbacks and shakeouts will occur along the way. #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
Retail giant Costco (COST) saw its stock trade flat with a slight increase of 0.02% ahead of its Q4 earnings release, while chip giant Micron (MU) surged 1.87%. Market funds are rapidly rotating between defensive consumer sectors and computing hardware.
Essential consumption shows extreme defensive value: Facing a high interest rate environment, Costco leverages its membership renewal rate and warehouse wholesale cost advantages to maintain the highest market premium for earnings stability even when discretionary spending is weak.
Membership fee adjustments and profit flexibility release: The secondary market is highly focused on the actual contribution of membership annual fee hikes to free cash flow, which is the core fundamental pillar supporting its high P/E valuation.
Examining the resilience of the U.S. consumer base: Costco's same-store sales and average transaction value data will directly reflect the true spending willingness of the American middle class, providing frontline evidence for the Federal Reserve to assess an economic soft landing.
If Costco's earnings again significantly exceed expectations, is this proof of the U.S. economy's sustained robust prosperity, or a signal of consumer "downgrading" toward cheaper wholesale shopping?
$COST $MU
#好市多 #美股财报 #抗通胀 #零售消费 #OKX#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
US-Iran officials held a 3-hour closed-door meeting and signaled willingness to ease tensions, causing crude oil futures bulls to collapse instantly. WTI crude oil (CL) plunged 2.87%, Brent crude oil (BZ) dropped sharply by 1.79%, and the geopolitical premium sharply faded.
Ceasefire talks expected to shatter supply panic: Diplomatic consultations released easing signals, prompting speculative bulls who previously bet on Middle East oil route disruptions to collectively stampede out, with the near-month crude oil contract's premium rapidly narrowing.
Key relief for imported inflation pressure: Oil prices plunged deeply from highs, directly dismantling Federal Reserve officials' concerns about "persistent secondary inflation," objectively providing a macro breathing space for risk asset recovery.
Commodity traders return to fundamental pricing: As the war premium is squeezed out, global manufacturing demand slowdown and OPEC+ capacity control once again take over pricing power, shifting the energy market from sentiment-driven to supply-demand tug-of-war.
The crude oil market's sharp drop approaches critical support, marking whether the geopolitical conflict is about to reach substantive reconciliation or if the crude oil main force is conducting a violent bear trap washout before the next round of negotiation breakdown?
$CL $BZ $XAUT
#CrudeOilFutures #Geopolitics #USIranTalks #Commodities #OKX#CostcoQ4EarningsWatch Costco’s upcoming results look like a useful check on how resilient consumers really are 🛒
The company already reported Q4 net sales of $93.9B, up 11.3% YoY, with comparable sales rising 9.4%. Those numbers look strong, but I’m more curious about membership renewals and margins. Sales can keep growing while shoppers become more selective, so the details may say more than the headline.
Micron’s results follow on September 30, creating a very different test. Its guidance points to roughly $50B in revenue and an 86% gross margin, reflecting intense demand for AI memory.
To me, these two reports capture the market’s current split perfectly: one measures household spending, while the other measures the strength of the AI infrastructure boom. It’ll be interesting to see which side looks more durable once the numbers arrive 🧩This week, the financial sector's move to blockchain has clearly accelerated.
It's no longer just about issuing tokens and discussing concepts; real businesses like stocks, payments, stablecoins, and bank settlements are starting to move onto the blockchain.
However, industry progress doesn't mean all Tokens will benefit.
What deserves more attention next is: real business, real revenue, and whether the value can ultimately return to the Token.
Three charts provide an overview. #Web3
For industry observation and information organization only, not investment advice; crypto assets are highly volatile, please be cautious of risks. #BTC surges to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
Bitcoin powerfully breaks through $87,000, with spot ETFs attracting nearly $1 billion in a single day, hitting a record high volume, driving the total crypto market cap to strongly rebound to $3 trillion. $BTC's market remains steady, rising 0.84%.
Institutional-level real capital historic recovery: On September 21, net inflow reached $999 million in a single day, with major players like IBIT and FBTC contributing over 90%, directly pushing the ETF's total net assets past the psychological $100 billion mark.
Bullish spot buying and short squeeze resonance: The market saw about 80% of short positions concentrated in liquidation, forcing a squeeze that pushed liquidity to the extreme, forming a dual-driven surge structure by spot and futures.
Options expiration day catalyzes potential volatile shocks: This Friday marks the quarterly options expiration, with call option open interest densely stacked at $90,000 and $100,000 strike prices, intensifying the bull-bear battle at these key round numbers.
With nearly $1 billion ETF capital entering in a single day, do you think this Friday's options expiration will be a springboard to sprint to $100,000, or a high-level resistance point where market makers suppress volatility?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETFNetInflow #OptionsExpiration #ShortCovering #OKXJust asking because I don't understand
Did these whales all get the script in advance?😭
They have unrealized profits of tens of millions
My short position is floating a loss of 10521U
Watching this, I even want to start monitoring their wallets from now on
I just can't accept this trade
I keep saying I dare you to push it further
But inside, I'm already nervous
So angry I don't even want to look at the technicals
$ETH here, the whale reported on September 23 bought another 15,000 coins
Overall position cost is about 2161 USD, definitely much more composed than me
The US ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of 270 million USD on September 21
And another net inflow of 162.2 million USD on September 22
A total of 432.2 million USD inflow over two consecutive days
Seeing these buy orders, I have to admit I was too simplistic before
Just thinking it should fall after rising so much isn’t enough reason to short
Whales are worth monitoring
But making money doesn’t prove insider info
Copy trading has delays, and I can’t see if they hedge with other accounts
$ZEC surged again, making me envious
When I checked just now it was about 1603 USD, up about 10.4% in 24 hours
On September 22, 21Shares launched the Zcash European ETP
Investors now have another channel to participate through securities accounts
I think this can boost sentiment
We still need to watch actual capital inflows going forward
For such a strong coin
I’m temporarily not daring to short just because it’s high
$OKB was about 124.3 USD when I checked just now
Up about 1.8% in 24 hours
I’m also hoping it will catch up soon
Whether it’s accumulating strength still needs volume breakout confirmation
Stubborn as I am
I still have to protect my principal
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ Let's review the two recent short positions.
The first short was opened around 74,500, with a stop loss at 77,500.
That day, I opened the short hastily right after waking up; it was a bit impulsive, also because I previously judged that the micro-strategy's cost price wouldn't be broken through all at once.
The second short was based on the judgment that this rapid rebound resembled the 2018 bear market trap. It surged 40% in 7 days. But after breaking through 83,000, I judged the trend reversal again, so I stopped out of the short.
Originally, I planned that after breaking 83,000, there would be a pullback, so I stopped out. Unexpectedly, many liquidations happened, and the price surged quickly. Later that night, I considered whether to hedge first or close everything, and finally decided that the short position from a year ago should be closed; the future is still the bull market's main track.
Most of the short position profits have already been hedged by me. Everyone really doesn't need to worry about me losing millions of dollars in drawdown. In the past 4 hours, $ZEC liquidations exceeded $13.4 million, ranking first across the entire network at one point; from September 21 to 22, related ETF inflows were about $2.36 million.
While leverage positions were being liquidated, spot-side funds were flowing in, amplifying short-term volatility through these two forces together.
The higher the liquidation pile-up, the stronger the potential rebound and secondary surge. If the November upgrade proceeds as expected, attention will likely remain high; if there are issues with the node or testnet, the narrative will cool down, so it’s not yet a confirmed one-way trend.
Some compare ZEC with HYPE: they believe ZEC has greater upside potential but also higher volatility and drawdown risk. The two can be paired for viewing rather than choosing one exclusively. No specific buy or sell points were given; it’s suitable for swing trading based on structure rather than chasing minute-by-minute moves with all-in positions.
First, shorts were liquidated, then upgrade expectations piled on—multiple factors combined to cause this price movement.
For those wanting to follow, don’t treat the breakout as the end point; leave some room in your position, don’t max out leverage when it’s rising, and take a comprehensive look after some pullback!
#ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 Currently, there are 2 trends to follow:
Positive signal: ETFs are attracting strong inflows, BTC is holding the high range, and the market has immediate buying power.
The biggest risk: high leverage and OI, positive funding, after a very strong short squeeze.
If price increases + Volume increases + OI moderately increases + spot/ETF inflows continue, the structure will be stronger. Conversely, if price rises but OI/funding increases too quickly followed by Long liquidations, the risk of correction will increase significantly.Looking at this historical position screenshot from OKEx, my heart is bleeding. September 21, 16:38:29 seems frozen as my "moment of suffering." BTC, ETH, and SOL all had 100x short positions, all closed at the same second, with returns of -664.95%, -465.77%, and -1382.7% respectively, totaling a loss of over 2000U. This is not trading; it's a chain liquidation disaster.
BTC opened a short at 78108, stubbornly held until forced out at 83274; ETH stubbornly held at 2470, finally capitulated at 2585; SOL was shorted from 100.8 to 114.71, that big bearish candle literally rubbed me against the starting line. I originally thought shorting at highs was an easy way to make money with the trend, but I underestimated the institutions' continuous accumulation and the short squeeze resilience when the market keeps hitting new highs.
100x full position is like strapping a time bomb to yourself. Even if you think the overall trend will correct, you can't withstand a short-term sharp rally. Leverage amplifies greed and accelerates destruction. The market doesn't accommodate anyone's position; the cost of stubbornly holding against the trend is this expensive "entry fee."
Brothers, remember this bloody lesson: never slack on your stop-loss line with high-leverage shorts. Always respect the market; only by staying alive do you have a chance to turn things around. $BTC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $ETH $SOL After $DOGE squeezed the shorts yesterday with a sharp rally, institutions have started to come back a bit. Today's gains are healthier than yesterday's:
1. Yesterday was a short squeeze: $5.66 million worth of short positions were liquidated in a single day, the largest short squeeze since August, with four major whales simultaneously opening 78.2 million long positions. The shorts gave up first, allowing the market to move.
2. Institutions are also starting to return: DOGE ETF saw a net inflow of $909,700 on Monday, compared to nearly zero inflow last week, indicating institutions are back.
Today's rise is due to institutional capital flowing in. Therefore, today's gains are healthier than yesterday's short squeeze rally.
3. On the technical side: it has risen again above the 0.10 whole number level, RSI is at 68.4, and the 200-day moving average ceiling has turned into a support level.
However, a reminder: it moves along with the major coins and doesn't have an independent trend. If the overall market sentiment changes, it won't escape.[Market Observation] After the mainstream market rose, it paused, and funds began seeking high-elasticity exports
BTC touched 87,400 overnight but then experienced a pullback, currently around 86,000. In the short term, 85,000–85,300 should first look for support; 84,000 is the more important trend bottom; Only by recovering 86,500 can the conditions be needed to challenge previous highs again.
ETH is still tuggling below 2,800, currently around 2,785. The 2,735–2,750 below serves as a buffer, while 2,800 above is a short-term threshold that must be faced.
DOGE's 24-hour range is 0.09717–0.10380, with continuous turnover near 0.10. As a veteran leader in the meme sector, it has built a deep consensus, and once sentiment is activated, its explosive potential is often significant.
The current pace is more like: mainstream stabilizes first, themes move later. What needs to guard against is not not keeping up, but short-term surges that consume future space early. Once BTC and ETH consolidate the bottom, meme sectors may enter a rotation window, and DOGE and PEPE can continue to be observed. Patience is more important than chasing highs.
The above are market records only and do not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #ZEC巨鲸3 8,000 short positions were closed, resulting in losses exceeding 35 million USD Bitcoin surged too quickly from 78k to 87k, resulting in almost no short liquidation volume above now.
Currently, at 86k for a whole day, if it goes up 10k, the short liquidation volume is 440 million; if it goes down 10k, the long liquidation volume is 1.663 billion.
If you were the market maker, which side's profits would you take?
My guess is the script: first go up to 87.5k to trigger those shorts with stop losses set at previous highs, then drop all the way below 79k to liquidate the most longs and take the biggest profits 🤔
Now is not suitable for high leverage chasing longs; prudent friends can wait for a pullback‼️
$BTC and Dage, be patient and wait a bit#BTC surged to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
ETH maintained a sideways range between 2720 and 2750 since last night, with no new clear structure emerging throughout the day, so it remains on hold, waiting for structural confirmation before making moves.
Currently, most market participants are divided into two camps: one waiting for an upward breakout, the other waiting for a deep pullback. The market currently shows signs of sideways movement instead of a decline, with bulls and bears temporarily at a stalemate. It is advisable to avoid opening positions during upcoming data release windows to reduce speculation based on news.
Pay close attention to the large options expiry this Friday, which could cause significant market disruption. The options pain point on the downside is around 2400; whether the market will retrace to this level to give us another entry opportunity remains to be seen.
$ETH $BTC $DOGE #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $BTC Today's trend, family, don't rush to get excited.
---
First, look at my trades today.
Entered long at 86185, exited at 87199, locking in 21.49%. After exiting, the price is now 87175, basically unchanged, so I caught this wave.
---
Now look at the market structure.
24-hour low was 85070, high was 87220, with a range of over 2100 dollars.
The price is now close to the previous high at 87220, a very critical level. If it breaks through, we look towards 88000 or even 90000; if it can't break, it's a double top, and a pullback to 86500 is expected.
---
The US Treasury sanctioned Iran's BitBank, saying it helped transfer hundreds of millions of dollars. Such news usually means short-term bearish but long-term bullish; it might cause some panic selling in the short term, but in the long run, it strengthens Bitcoin's "censorship resistance" narrative.
---
To be honest.
I exited early today and have no regrets. A 21% profit feels solid.
At the current 87175 level, chasing longs is not cost-effective. 87220 is the previous high resistance; breaking above requires volume support. If it fails, a pullback near 86500 is worth watching.
Don't rush to chase just because it rose today; wait for a signal.
---
Brothers, can this 87220 level be broken?
Do you think it will touch 88000 today or pull back to 86500?
$BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Greed index at 71, is it still possible to add positions now?
My answer: You can hold, but it is not recommended to open heavy new positions at this level. $AVAX current price is 11.196, MA5=11.1764 above MA20=11.0704, MACD histogram +0.01845 maintaining bullish momentum, RSI=55.3 in a neutral to slightly strong zone, structure intact; however, the upper Bollinger band at 11.3234 is right overhead, 30 candlesticks volatility is 7.82%, and the funding rate +0.0100% indicates bulls have started paying to hold positions. The cost-effectiveness of chasing highs under greed sentiment is not good.
Positioning strategy: Existing positions can continue to be held, new positions should only be entered on pullbacks. Entry reference is 11.05–11.12 (above MA20 and near the middle Bollinger band), take profit 1 at 11.32 (upper Bollinger band, first resistance), take profit 2 at 11.55 (measured extension after breaking the upper band), stop loss set at 10.95 (breaking below MA20 and losing the lower edge of the middle Bollinger band, invalidating the bullish structure).
Worst-case scenario: If the fear and greed index continues to rise from 71 and then falls back, combined with the funding rate turning negative, AVAX may quickly retrace to the lower Bollinger band at 10.82. The 7.82% volatility means a single-day drawdown could exceed 5%, forcing heavy holders to sell at the lowest point. Exit signals are very clear: if the closing price falls below MA20 for two consecutive candlesticks, or the MACD histogram turns from positive to negative, reduce positions immediately—do not wait for the stop loss to be triggered.OKX launched X-Perp for FLOCK, which rose 22% in 24 hours.
FLOCK-USD perpetual futures debuted on OKX FUTURES today (September 23), with the price climbing from a bottom of 0.072 to the current 0.089, and trading volume jumping from a daily average of tens of thousands to nearly ten million USD. OKX simultaneously launched three X-Perps: FLOCKUSD, MINAUSD, and CASHCATUSD, with FLOCK being the most active among them.
On September 14, the second day after SWAP launched, it dropped -13%. I asked in a post, "Are you on board?" Now that X-Perp is here, the logic is completely different—there is an added hedging tool and liquidity depth has stepped up.
The 4H chart shows a bullish divergence at the bottom, with 0.075 forming a double bottom support, and a breakout above the 0.085 neckline in the afternoon. Coupled with the coin listing announcement as a catalyst, the short-term structure looks promising.
However, on the first day of X-Perp trading, bulls and bears are still battling; not all newly listed coins can sustain momentum. Whether $FLOCK can hold its ground depends on whether there is capital relay during the US market opening tonight.
Do you think it’s still worth chasing after the 0.09 breakout? Tesla has held those 11,509 $BTC for a full four years without moving a single one.
Now they're worth 995 million, just 5.1 million short of 1 billion.
This week $BTC rose 14%, adding 123 million to their account.
Honestly, seeing news like this gives me mixed feelings.
Other companies buy and then just leave it alone, not fussing for four years, and end up nearly hitting a billion.
People like me who watch the market every day, switching back and forth, might not even outperform someone who "forgot about it."
The problem is, itching hands are the biggest cost.
This news has no direct impact on the market; 11,509 coins aren't newly bought.
But it reminds us of one thing: the ones who truly hold on are often not the most knowledgeable, but the most patient.
Going forward, I'll watch for a signal—when these "four-year untouched" positions start to move, that's when it's worth talking about.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $BTC $TSLA BCH and $UNI have both been included in CME's futures program this time. On the surface, it looks like the same news, but in fact, the logic behind the two is completely different.
Let's first look at $BCH.
The core logic of BCH is mainstream payment asset + institutional trading entry.
After CME launches BCH futures, institutions can participate in BCH price exposure through compliant derivatives, as well as hedge and manage risks. 【Breakdown #1｜USELESS: Scored the highest in the entire field, yet I say don't chase】
Main score 81.0｜Tag 🔥Strong·Blind
① How the main score is derived
Four layers of factors normalized into a main score from 0–100; sub-items and weights are not disclosed.
② Who ranked 2nd and 3rd
ZEC Main score 79.0｜🔥Strong·Blind
ARB Main score 72.0｜📈Trend Hold
③ Can it be bought?
Blocked by the gate: The recent trend level is too far from the current price, so the odds do not hold — there isn’t enough room to realize a risk once.
A high score indicates structural health, but failing the gate means the odds do not hold — the latter determines whether to place an order.
Next breakdown: ZEC, ARB, MET, comment the name in the comment section.
———
Data comes from a self-built mechanical scanning system: over two hundred mainstream contracts, confirmed on daily and weekly dual cycles,
Four-layer factor scoring → phase classification → odds gate → position filtering. All outputs are programmatic, with no subjective judgment.
Parameters and weights are not disclosed. Not investment advice, does not constitute any profit guarantee,
Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile, please assess your risk tolerance independently.
#OKX星球 #QuantitativeTrading #CLARITY投票前分歧未解 My trading intention is: consider going long when waiting for a pullback to be supported, consider shorting when a rally fails.
📍 85,100—85,300: Observe pullback support
After falling back here, if two consecutive 15-minute candlesticks close above 85,300, combined with volume confirmation, consider going long, initially targeting around 86,800. If the 1-hour close falls below 85,100, cancel this round of pullback long plan.
📍 86,800—86,900: Observe if an effective breakout occurs
This is near the recent 24-hour high. After stabilizing here, then observe 87,200—87,400; an intraday spike through this range does not count as confirmation, do not chase the first surge.
📍 87,200—87,400: Observe if the rally fails
If after the rally it closes back below 87,200, fails to rebound above it, and then continues to weaken, consider shorting, initially targeting around 86,800. If the 1-hour close stands above 87,400, cancel the short idea.
It is not recommended to force opening a position immediately. If conditions are not confirmed and stop loss is not set properly, remain out of the market.
#BTCStarting live trading today, played with 200u for 3 months and ended up with 25u, no further explanation. Recharged 148u the day before yesterday to start over
A qualified trader won't lose their principal to the point it affects their trading.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh directly says, after a 3-hour talk, both sides said "very good," but none of the conditions Iran proposed were accepted by the US. This is not a positive signal; it's passing the ball back to the US.
First, let's look at the situation of the talks. During the UN General Assembly on September 22, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met with US envoy Whitaker and Trump's son-in-law Kushner in New York for a full 3 hours, with Qatari diplomats mediating!
But Iran's conditions were increasingly tough. The prerequisite for reopening the Strait of Hormuz is: immediate lifting of the maritime blockade, immediate unfreezing of all Iranian assets, and ending wars on all regional fronts.
The market reaction was very honest. WTI crude oil directly fell below $95.78, plunging 4.51% in a single day, hitting the lowest since September 9. Bitcoin followed with a rebound, climbing from a low of 80,288 to around 85,300. The logic is simple—oil prices fell, inflation expectations cooled, rate hike pressure eased, and risk assets got a breather.
But Pharaoh has to pour cold water. Trump himself said Iran is "waiting to see how I perform in the midterm elections," and the agreement might only be reached after the midterms in November. In other words, this 3-hour talk was just "passing the conditions over," and the real resolution is still far away. A US-Iran presidential meeting hasn't even been arranged; the two sides haven't even met face-to-face. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the geopolitical premium on oil prices could return at any time. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？