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The long-awaited cryptocurrency clarity bill CLARITY finally has progress.
After a year of negotiations, Trump is willing to accept over 120 demands from the Democrats in exchange for the bill reaching the Senate voting threshold.
The biggest dispute now is that the Democrats are targeting the crypto business behind the Trump family—they not only want to prohibit officials from issuing new coins in the future but also want to regulate the entire chain behind it, including franchises, family companies, token sales, and stablecoin projects.
Additionally, the Democrats demand that crypto law enforcement on officials and their spouses should not be solely under the Department of Justice: they worry that the DOJ, appointed by Trump himself, will not investigate Trump and his family, so they want local state attorneys general to also take action.
As a result, a bill that was supposed to benefit the industry has turned into a "tightening spell" with extremely strict and broad requirements on officials—including the president, vice president, members of Congress, federal judges, and their spouses—where no one can participate for compensation or endorse any crypto project with vested interests.
But on the flip side: if this standard is truly implemented, the Democrats will have a ready basis for a major crackdown whenever they want.
Especially now, with the midterm elections approaching, both the House and Senate are predicted to be dominated by the Democrats.#OpenAICEO says no IPO in 2026
Altman said it directly
No listing in 2026
The reasons are safety, alignment, and a lot of work to do
Also need to leave room for non-short-term business decisions
Amodei just called to slow down frontier capabilities
Altman publicly takes a stand
On one side OpenAI holds back the IPO
On the other side Anthropic is preparing to go public
Still negotiating Nvidia anchoring
Computing power still requires huge funds
But the leaders are starting to talk about safety and pace
Financing, growth, and safety are intertwined
The thematic sentiment will shake a bit
The main theme in crypto is still inflation and interest rates
So my judgment is
Short-term suppress AI narrative heat
Mid-term watch who delivers safety progress first
Don't short the computing power chain just because of one statement
$BTC #OpenAI #AI$ETH: Long Position
Trading Strategy:
1. Lightly go long on a pullback to 2,500-2,505 (near MA20) with a stop loss below 2,480, targeting 2,522-2,535.
2. If volume breaks through 2,535, you can chase long on the right side, targeting 2,560.
3. If resistance appears at 2,525-2,535 with shrinking volume, consider a short position with strict stop loss.
Core Basis:
1. Pattern: The 15-minute chart shows a bottom rebound at 2,460.01, forming a V-shaped/W bottom rebound, currently in right-side consolidation.
2. Moving Averages: MA5 and MA10 converge with a golden cross at 2,512, price stabilizes above MA20 (2,505.52), indicating an early stage of a short-term bullish arrangement.
3. Volume: There is volume on the bottom rebound, but volume shrinks near the 24H high (2,522.60), making a direct breakout unlikely; time is needed for space exchange and consolidation.
4. Resistance: 2,520-2,535 is a previous dense trading area with strong selling pressure. If it falls below 2,480, the bullish structure is broken and a defensive stance is needed.
$ZEC $SOL
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
#特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 $BTC I've always leaned towards long-term holding, with a target of at least 90,000.
This time I opened a long position around 76,400, and will consider whether to add more based on the overall account funds, potentially leveraging up to 100x.
As for $LAB, I originally set the take profit above 3,000, but I can't quite recall the exact price 😂. The recent drop was so fast that I manually closed the position first. I feel there's still a chance for a rebound, so I immediately opened a small position again, with 20x leverage and about 200 points. I'll add or close positions depending on the market.
When opening a position, what I consider first isn't how much I can earn from this trade, but:
If I'm wrong, what's the maximum I could lose?
Can my other positions withstand this drawdown?
I think through the risks first, then decide the position size.
If the market feeling is bad, I might close the position at around a 100 loss to try to break even; if the market feels favorable, I can tolerate a larger floating loss.
Trading doesn't mean winning every time; the key is to survive first, then wait for the next opportunity.📈 Robinhood Chain Gas fees have fallen, and trading volume is increasing
Robinhood Chain's daily Gas revenue dropped from $5.44 million on September 4 to $943,728 on September 10, a decline of about 82.6%. However, the number of transactions only decreased from 13.98 million to 13.6 million during the same period, and the daily DEX trading volume remained roughly stable between $1.89 billion and $1.87 billion; the seven-day DEX trading volume as of September 10 actually increased by 26.5% compared to the previous week.
This data looks more like congestion and block space price easing rather than users suddenly leaving: the average Gas cost per transaction dropped from $0.43 to $0.077. For users, the most direct change is the reduction in transaction costs; for Robinhood Chain, whether the revenue peak can translate into sustained activity still depends on whether real trading persists in the low-fee environment.
#Robinhood #Trump Accepts New Ethics Rules, CLARITY Vote Approaches
Trump has agreed to the new ethics restrictions, clearing some congressional obstacles. The highly anticipated CLARITY Act is about to face a crucial Senate vote. If passed, the bill will clarify the regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, define the classification of assets like BTC and $ETH, and establish a federal regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto industry, which is significant for institutional capital entry.
Personal view: The ethics compromise paves the way for the bill but does not guarantee its passage.
1. The new ethics rules resolve some Democratic senators' concerns, increasing the bill's chances, but the Senate still needs to secure bipartisan votes. Banking groups continue to lobby against it, so uncertainties remain high.
2. The market has already priced in the positive news, so there may be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect. Even if it passes smoothly, it does not mean an immediate bull market. Regulatory implementation is a medium- to long-term positive, and it will not directly reverse macro pressures in the short term.
3. The market is currently focused on the FOMC meeting, interest rate hike expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields, which remain the main drivers. Regulatory news mainly affects risk appetite and cannot fully offset macroeconomic negatives.
Do not simply bet on the bill's passage by chasing prices higher. Maintain a phased approach in spot positions and avoid heavy bets on news; strictly control leverage in contracts, as volatility and manipulative spikes will be frequent around the vote.
If the bill is blocked, it will trigger a sentiment pullback; if it passes smoothly, pay close attention to whether ETF funds begin to flow back. Let the data speak, BTC's current position is very critical.
Current price is 77563, resistance above at 78000, about 0.6% away from the current price; support below at 76323, about 1.6% away from the current price. This range-bound fluctuation has lasted for some time and could choose a direction at any moment.
From historical data, BTC's volatility near integer thresholds significantly increases, and 78000 is a battleground for bulls and bears. I have analyzed the past 10 similar situations, and 6 times there was a pullback near the resistance level.
My trading plan: consider reducing or lightly shorting near 78000, target 76323, stop loss set above 78200; if it breaks through and holds above 78000, decisively go long. Every trade must have a stop loss; never hold a losing position.
Recovering from a 200,000 U loss, every step must be steady. Data doesn't lie; the key is whether you can control your hands. $BTC #Coinbase is integrating DeFi into ordinary users' accounts
Coinbase has started to open DeFi Earn to Brazilian users: users deposit USDC in the app, and the funds actually go into the Morpho vault on Base.
This product currently has nearly $500 million in total deposits, with yields once showing as high as 7.4%.
For ordinary users, it just looks like they clicked "earn yield," but underneath, it's running on on-chain lending. The true large-scale adoption of DeFi may be when users don't even feel like they're using DeFi.Brent crude oil crashed to $100 overnight! Has the inflation powder keg loosened? Don't rush to pop champagne. Just as everyone was stunned by the CPI and the probability of a rate hike in September soared to 90%, crude oil staged a dramatic reversal. Over the weekend, Brent crude plunged below the $100 mark, plunging over 1.9% intraday; New York crude oil also fell below $96. Previously, the US-Iran standoff had escalated, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, the market was frantically trading war risk premiums, and oil prices surged to the 100-dollar mark, which is the main driver of this inflation rebound. The turning point has arrived—Trump's latest statement: The US-Iran war is very likely to end after the November midterm elections, and once the conflict ends, energy prices will plummet. Once the news broke, capital rushed into the oil bulls, tearing open a crack in the tense inflation sentiment. Why does the rise and fall of a barrel of oil affect all global assets? The logic is extremely straightforward: rising oil prices → soaring costs for energy, logistics, and industrial goods→ CPI rises → the Fed is forced to raise rates → global risk assets are under pressure The CPI rebound in August, with gasoline subcategories contributing significantly. Oil prices are the hidden driver behind inflation. So this round of oil price pullbacks is like temporarily pushing the inflation bomb hanging overhead down by an inch. Because of this, while Friday's CPI data was clearly negative than expected, US stocks actually saw a "boot landing" surge — Dell Technologies surged over 11%, AMD rose over 7%, Qualcomm and Intel strengthened, and precious metals closed higher simultaneously. The market is already pricing in early:CORE项目多次失误，刻意绑定BTC叙事，损害比特币的声誉形象 ✅核心解读 1. 刻意编排与比特币的关联，借BTC光环讲故事 CORE前身BTCs，从项目早期就反复渲染和中本聪、比特币算力的深度绑定关系。 技术本质上只是借用比特币矿工委托算力参与共识投票，并不是比特币分叉，代码底层和BTC主网没有关联，也不是中本聪相关项目。 但是宣传层面刻意模糊边界，让大量普通投资者误以为它是比特币官方衍生项目、是BTCFi正统，借用比特币数十年积累的巨大共识与声誉来吸引资金入场。 2. 项目接连出现多次任性的底层漏洞、代币意外溢出 项目上线之后，多次发生协议奖励漏洞、代币无预警提前流通，多次触发交易所暂停充提。一次次事故，不断暴露项目代码和治理的不成熟。 很多普通投资者分不清：CORE ≠ BTC。大量散户因为被“比特币算力”的宣传吸引进场，亏损之后，会把对CORE项目的负面印象，牵连到比特币本身。 3. 对BTC形象声望带来的负面影响 比特币本身底层协议十几年稳定运行，从未出现增发、账本篡改这类致命漏洞，靠长期安全可靠建立起全球范围内的声望。 而CORE不断爆出事故，又一直紧紧捆绑BTC叙FIP-0118 (Solstice) Reshapes the $FIL Economic Model
This is the most important economic model reform since Filecoin went live, directly addressing core pain points:
❌ Abolish Fil+ / DataCap: Cancel the cumbersome DataCap application and review process; new sectors enjoy equal consensus rewards upon launch (some new sectors have QAP increased up to 10x).
✅ Rewards tied to real payments: Introduce Service Orchestrators to allocate part of the block rewards directly to the service layer that brings real paying customers.
🔥 Burn if targets are not met: If on-chain payment volume (Filecoin Pay) fails to reach quarterly goals, tokens originally intended for service rewards will be directly burned. The new selling pressure is reduced by nearly 80%, combined with the burn mechanism, FIL could become net deflationary in the best-case scenario!Slowing down AI is not hitting the brakes, it's shifting gears
Sam Altman said he supports slowing down the development of cutting-edge models.
In the same sentence, he confirmed that OpenAI will not go public in 2026.
His original words were:
Slowing down means prioritizing safety investment over release pace.
The premise of this statement is:
No IPO means no need to report progress in quarterly earnings.
For project developers, who sets the pace is crucial.
Public companies' model iterations must follow earnings reports.
Without going public, you follow your own safety line.
Slowing down does not mean stopping; it means retaining control over release rights.
Whoever owns the schedule has the final say.
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
#OpenAICEO称2026年不会IPO $ETH The account number increased, but I didn't do anything, is this reasonable? When the market was just smashed in the early session, the market was chaotic, $UP rebounded fiercely, but the volume didn't keep up, no one caught it on the way up, so I directly opened a short at 0.4420. High position pressure is still high position pressure, it can't be faked.
Now at 0.3356, +241.17% big profit secured, can treat myself to a good meal. The earlier part was really dragging, but walking out of it feels really good.
Risk control done upfront is called rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive.
First close 80%, move the remaining 20% stop loss to cost, if it continues to drop let the profit run, don't feel bad if it rebounds back.
Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a flying knife and get your hands full of blood.
Wait for a new structure to appear, now is not the time to rush, chasing shorts is easy to get stopped out, miss it and don't chase.
$ZEC $BTC $LIT is expected to rally after bottoming around 3.6 for several days, driven by the "DEX+CLARITY" anticipation, reflecting a resonance between news and consolidation. Lighter faces Robinhood diversion and revenue burn; it surged to 5.2 on September 9, pulled back to 4.30 on the 11th, then bounced back to 4.83. The news flow is sufficient but prone to shakeouts. I went long at 3.6669 with 50x leverage, currently at 4.5561, floating profit +1212.46%. Reviewing the chart confirms three stages: "consolidation with shrinking volume — news-driven volume expansion — pullback without breaking support." Next, watch 4.6 for news sustainability; a breakout target is 5.0—5.2. If positive news is fully priced in and 4.45 breaks down, take partial profits and exit. For high-leverage news trades, avoid stubbornness; lock in profits first, then follow up. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Nvidia's revenue scale has expanded rapidly over the past two years, but at the same time, its customer base has quietly narrowed. On September 13, according to The Information, in the first half of the fiscal year ending in July this year, three Nvidia customers each contributed over 10% of total revenue, with the three together accounting for 44%. In the previous fiscal year, this figure was 36% from two customers. Looking further back to FY2023, none of Nvidia's customers accounted for 10%. Behind this change is the explosive growth of NVIDIA's data center business—revenue soared from about $15 billion in FY2023 to $193.7 billion in the previous fiscal year, and is expected to double again this year. The larger the business, the deeper the dependence on top customers. Who are the three major clients? NVIDIA did not name these three customers in its public documents, but analysis by The Information suggests that they may include Dell or Hon Hai Technology—both of which integrate NVIDIA chips into servers and resell them to other companies. Dell recently disclosed that its "AI-optimized servers" revenue doubled year-on-year to $16.4 billion year-on-year in the second quarter, driving overall revenue growth by 58%; Hon Hai's first-half revenue also grew 35% year-on-year, mainly driven by AI equipment sales. On the other hand, Nvidia CFO Colette Kress stated in February this year that the top five cloud providers and "hyperscale computing" customers$VVV No operation, no analysis, just relying on luck, I even feel embarrassed to share this record.😇
Actually, the position was set up in advance. When VVV was just dumped in the early session, the selling pressure above was very strong, and the bulls tried for a long time but couldn't break 26.656. Seeing the volume couldn't keep up, I immediately placed a short order and then went to have breakfast.
When I came back, the current price had dropped directly to 22.641, and my account showed a floating profit of +301.77%. Only then did I understand that those who watch the market but move little often end up the happiest.
I closed 70% of the position first, safely pocketing the profit; for the remaining 30%, I moved the stop loss close to the cost price, letting it snowball if it dropped further, so at worst I would just earn less.🧊
The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. Being out of the market is not a sin; opening random positions is the mistake. If you don't open, at least you won't be wrong.
Don't chase the dump at this position. If you really want to short again, wait for the next rebound to end; I'll give a heads-up in advance.
$SOL $ZEC 【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series 65】
2015 Bear Bottom: This indicator took 113 days from touching zero to the bull market recovery peak
2019 Bear Bottom: This indicator took 139 days from touching zero to the bull market recovery peak
2022 Bear Bottom: This indicator took 103 days from touching zero to the secondary bull market recovery peak
2026 Bear Bottom: This indicator has been 27 days since touching zero
┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the realized profit and loss ratio momentum of Bitcoin short-term holders on-chain
This indicator compares the “realized profit and loss ratio of short-term holders” with its “1-year moving average” to measure the "acceleration (momentum)" of short-term capital profit and loss changes, helping to identify turning points in macro market trends
When this indicator surges sharply, it means short-term investors are taking profits at a speed far exceeding the average level of the past year. This usually occurs during rapid market price rallies or bull market frenzy phases, reflecting a large amount of recently accumulated profit chips accelerating distribution and realization #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 $OL Initially planned to sell and end it, but it reversed on its own and returned the gains.
During the intraday bottom consolidation, OL was sideways at the bottom, buying pressure strengthened, I indicated that as long as support wasn't broken, there was a chance. Entered lightly and early, don't get overexcited.
From 0.005550 surged to 0.005823, long position +50.09%, feeling good brothers. Timing the rhythm right feels really great.
Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking. The premise of compounding is survival; shortcuts to getting rich often lead to zero.
Take the big profits into the pocket first, take profit on 70%, keep the remaining 30% at cost price for protection, let profits run, don't let pullbacks turn gains into discomfort. Take profits when it's time. Now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. The market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patience.
$XRP $SNDK #US Treasury yields near 5%, repo fails to ease long-term pressure
The global asset pricing anchor alarm keeps ringing: the US 10-year Treasury yield is once again approaching the psychological 5% threshold! Despite the US Treasury launching a repo operation three times the usual scale for long-term bonds, the massive buying volume still struggles to stem the flood of US Treasury sell-offs amid a 90% probability of a rate hike.
Behind the failure of repo support lie three major deep macro dilemmas:
The deficit surge overwhelms buying support: The expanding fiscal deficit forces continuous US Treasury issuance, making a mere tens of billions in repo operations a drop in the ocean against the massive supply, with oversupply hard to reverse.
Inflation baseline rise demands higher premiums: The energy rebound heats up sticky inflation expectations, prompting long-term bond investors to demand higher premiums to compensate for the risk of future purchasing power being continuously diluted.
The indiscriminate hammer at the 5% critical point: If the 10-year US Treasury yield stabilizes at 5%, global risk asset cash flow discount models will be passively restructured, and risk-free high yields will continue to drain liquidity from growth stocks and the crypto market.
Do you think the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking 5% is a done deal, or will bulls mount a defense before next week's FOMC?
$TLT $SPX $BTC #USTreasury #USTreasuryYields #Inflation #FiscalDeficit #MacroeconomicsGold is expected to have a soft landing this week
Last Friday's sharp reversal must have left a deep impression on everyone
Even though the core CPI rose in August, the expectation for a rate hike in September surged
Gold briefly plunged but quickly rebounded, performing a rapid roller coaster ride
Due to the persistently high long-term US Treasury yields and central banks' gold reserves surpassing US Treasuries
The room for gold to pull back is very limited, unless the US Treasury credit crisis is resolved
Next, it depends on what the Federal Reserve's rate decision in September says, as well as the market's expectations for subsequent continuous actions (either consecutive rate hikes or maintaining rates unchanged)
On Monday, first watch 4310 as support (close to northbound), then see 4370 as resistance The selling pressure on small-cap tokens often appears before the price does, and a weak rebound is a typical characteristic.
$AEON's trading volume has been continuously shrinking before the breakdown. I shorted at 0.05841 following the trend.
A 20x leverage magnified the 17.2% drop into a +345.48% unrealized profit. Current price is 0.04832.
The 0.048 level below is an important support. If it breaks, look towards 0.04; if volume shrinks and it stabilizes, bears should beware of a violent rebound and are advised to tighten stop losses. $ZEC $SOL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ First: I currently have no gold holdings. It's either bearish or bullish, just short. This article is just a record of one thing I've seen. At 8:30 PM on September 11, the US August CPI was released. Core CPI was +0.3% month-on-month, market expectation +0.2%, and 0.1 percentage points above expectations. Just this one number pushed the probability of next week's rate hike from 67% straight to 85%~90%. According to textbooks, gold should fall. But it didn't fall. That night, gold first broke through 4300, with a low near 4290, then pulled back within two hours, reaching a high of 4398, rising about 1.2% against the trend. This made me pause and think: when the market doesn't follow the textbook, the underlying logic is often much more important than the "drop" itself. Let's reconcile the accounts first. This time, the overall CPI wasn't too bad. Overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, matching expectations, and month-on-month was +0.4%. But core CPI was +0.3% month-on-month, 0.1% higher than expected, which directly fueled market expectations for a rate hike in September. Rate hike expectations surged, and gold prices rebounded against the trend. What does this mean? What I saw wasn't "gold isn't afraid of rate hikes." What I saw was: some funds saw this drop as a buying opportunity, not a reason to sell interest rate hikes. This kind of buying is usually not trend-chasing retail investors. When retail investors see CPI exceeding expectations or a 90% chance of a rate hike, their first reaction is to run. They can go yellowPlease call me the prophet, thank you!
Just said it yesterday morning, and it dropped that night.
Now the market shows a classic W pattern, but I have to tell you, this is obviously a bull trap!
Why do I say this W is fake?
Look at the candlesticks, $ETH dropped from 2667 to 2461, now it’s rebounding back to 2513.
A classic double bottom, right?
Retail investors seeing this pattern will definitely think "It's stable, a reversal is coming."
But look at the volume, the volume bar on the right side rebound is much smaller than the volume during the big drop on the left side.
A W bottom without real money entering is just a trap drawn by the smart money for retail investors.
Look at the moving averages: EMA5, 10, 20, 30, 60, 120 — six lines tangled tightly between 2500 and 2513.
The price at 2513 is being heavily suppressed by a cluster of moving averages above.
Is this a reversal? No, it can’t even lift its head.
Don’t think this is just technical; behind this is the smart money playing a big game.
The Federal Reserve meeting is coming soon, and big money definitely won’t start a real trend at this critical moment.
But the manipulators are using this macro vacuum period to repeatedly draw fake doors and lure bulls back and forth, deliberately creating the illusion that "it can’t fall further."
Why do they do this?
Because only by tricking retail investors into chasing highs and boarding the bullish train repeatedly can they pile up enough fuel.
When the Fed’s decision finally lands, the smart money will have enough chips to smash the market down and enough room to execute a perfect harvest.
Every bullish candle now is a pre-set trap.
Don’t try to bottom-fish at this position, don’t rush in just because you see a W bottom.
The smart money puts so much effort into drawing a double bottom just to trick you into entering, so they can unload the unsold high-position inventory onto you.
Once it breaks below the key neckline at 2461, the path down is clear.
Hold your short positions firmly, don’t be fooled by this fake W into exiting early. First watch for a break below 2461, then below 2400, and the waterfall will naturally come!
$BTC
$ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ On September 14, FIL's spot price reached around 0.9628. Based on the current candlestick structure, after a rapid earlier rally, FIL has entered a high-volatility consolidation phase. Although there is short-term pressure to realize profits, the price has not shown a clear continuous breakout during the pullback, and the support near 0.95 is worth paying close attention. Today's core idea is not to chase the rally, but to observe whether the 0.96 level can hold steady. If bulls can increase volume again, there is still a short-term opportunity to test further upwards. One-hour chart: Short-term oscillation and recovery; bulls need to regain control. From the one-hour perspective, after rapid fluctuations, the price gradually enters a consolidation phase, and the short-term moving averages begin to converge, indicating that bears' releasing strength has weakened. The 0.95 area is currently an important short-term defense zone. As long as the price quickly recovers above 0.96 after a pullback, and trading volume expands in tandem, the short-term structure is expected to strengthen again. The upper level should first focus on resistance near 0.97; after a breakout, look to the 0.98 level. Four-hour line: The upward structure still exists, but the area has entered a key confirmation zone. More noteworthy at the four-hour level is the trend inertia formed during the previous rally. Although the price has pulled back from highs, the overall price is still in a recovery phase after the previous rally. Considering the moving averages and candlestick alignment, this is not a typical one-sided trend decline but closer to a turnover at high levels after an uptrend. As long as no effective breakout occurs in the 0.94–0.95 area, bulls still have the foundation to rally again. If subsequent volume increases and breaks through 0.98, there is a chance for further breakthroughs in the short termThe entire crypto market this week is holding its breath for the September FOMC announcement, like waiting for lottery results. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
Recently, August's PPI and CPI both exceeded expectations, oil prices and US Treasury yields remain high and sideways, and the market sentiment shifted suddenly — previously everyone was unanimously saying "no rate hike," but then institutions like Goldman Sachs collectively changed their tune, starting to bet on a 25 basis point rate hike. Now the market has been stuck sideways for several days, just waiting for the early morning result to set the direction.
Interestingly, while the data calls for a rate hike, the political side is undermining it. Trump jumped out saying the US should have the lowest global interest rates, and the White House economic advisor also stated there's no reason to raise rates. Both sides are talking past each other, adding another layer of fog to an already unclear situation.
As for me, I unloaded leverage early. Betting heavily on direction is something I wouldn’t dare to do after the Fed abandoned forward guidance. The last time PPI exceeded expectations and the market plunged is still fresh in my mind. If we get a "no hike but hawkish talk" or a "hike but hint it's the last one," either scenario could bury those betting on a single direction.
Moreover, the FOMC is no longer just about whether to hike that 25 basis points. If they do hike, the market might actually rally on a "bad news priced in" bounce; if they hold steady, the initial surge is likely to be quickly sold off. What really influences the big market moves in the coming months is how the Fed explains inflation pressures and the future path of interest rates — that’s the key to the market’s direction for several months.
This is also a lesson from experienced traders:
1. Don’t bet your whole stake before major events; watching with a light position is safest. You might think you’ve nailed the data, but politics always adds more variables than you expect.
2. Buying the expectation and selling the fact is ironclad. When everyone thinks a hike is coming, the actual hike might not cause a drop; if no hike happens, don’t hold on after the initial rise.
3. Don’t just focus on the rate number. The wording of the decision and the rhetoric in the press conference are the real market drivers. Many only watch if there’s a hike or not, then get caught off guard by subsequent comments.
$BTC The probability of a rate hike is 86.5%. The CME data is right there.
But Killa posted a tweet today — he doesn't even look at the FOMC.
This person shorted BTC at $74,688 in mid-April, switched to long on June 5 when the market broadly fell, and accurately predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025.
He condensed his trading framework into three sentences.
First sentence: Don't use news to predict direction.
Killa's original words — most macro narratives are just noise.
"The market doesn't move because most people understand it. Most people understand it because the market has already moved."
Translation: Those who wait to act until the FOMC results come out have already missed the price move. The number you see is the institution's answer, not your opportunity.
Second sentence: Sweeping lows is a preparatory move to reward the bulls.
Killa's judgment on September 12 — BTC repeatedly hunts long positions below previous lows to clear leverage and destroy bullish confidence.
After continuous sweeping lows, the final sweep will mark a local bottom.
If BTC sweeps lows again after the FOMC, it's not a bear market coming. It might be the last shakeout.
Wash out those who can't hold, then rise.
Third sentence: The real catalyst has changed.
Killa shifted the narrative weight from the FOMC to the Clarity Act.
On September 15, the Senate procedural vote requires 60 votes; Republicans have only 53 seats, so Democratic support is key.
Interest rates determine short-term volatility. Legislation determines the long-term ceiling.
The logic behind these three sentences is the same:
The bottom may have arrived, but there are traps on the way. The real signals are not in interest rates but in position structure and legislative progress.
FOMC is noise. The Clarity Act is the signal.
Sweeping lows is the last dip. Legislation is the long-term ceiling.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Famous trader Killa precisely shorted BTC at $74,688 in mid-April, then went long when the market crashed in June. On X, 200,000 followers track his signals.
On September 14, he said one thing:
"Most macro narratives are just noise."
In plain language: stop watching the FOMC.
Think about it—a quant trader who lives by macro rhythms suddenly tells you macro is noise?
It’s not that he changed. He saw something bigger.
On September 12, he said the market is repeatedly hunting longs to clear leverage and destroy confidence; the final sweep will mark a local bottom.
On September 14, he outright rejected the logic of macro pricing.
As early as August 12, he made a key judgment—the Clarity Act is playing the role that "ETF" did in the last cycle.
In the last bull market, Bitcoin began recovering from lows during ETF rumors, and by the time of official approval, the price had already completed the main upward wave.
What is Killa telling you?
On-chain position structure > interest rate path. Regulatory legislation > Federal Reserve decisions.
His analytical framework has switched engines:
June 17—he was still warning that FOMC was a key risk for Bitcoin, citing data that since 2025, BTC fell 7 out of 8 times after FOMC, and gave a bullish structure line at $64,000.
September 14—he says macro narratives are just noise.
Three months—from watching FOMC to blacklisting FOMC.
This isn’t forgetfulness. It’s a narrative shift.
So why does the Clarity Act deserve this weight?
September 15, Senate procedural vote. Needs 60 votes.
Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning at least 7 Democrats must defect to advance. Kalshi’s prediction market gives a 25% chance of passage, down from 82% in February.
Galaxy Digital’s Novogratz says the bill "is not dead," and weekend negotiations continue.
White House digital asset advisor Patrick Witt says: "Today is not the day to be a Clarity Act pessimist."
Senator Lummis dropped a hard line: if this bill fails, the next legislative window might not open until after 2030.
Note this timeline.
FOMC affects liquidity over the next three months. The Clarity Act affects the capital entry threshold for the next three years.
One decides your position next quarter; the other decides the industry’s ceiling for the next decade.
Killa isn’t ignoring macro. He’s done the math: three months vs. three years, which is worth betting on.
The bill’s content itself tells the story.
The latest version is about 630 pages, incorporating over 100 amendments. Core framework: digital assets are explicitly classified as "digital commodities," regulated by the CFTC, clearing structural obstacles for institutional allocation.
The phrase "digital commodities" is the real pricing anchor.
It means Bitcoin is legally recognized as a commodity, not a security. Once the compliance channel for institutional funds opens, the reduction in capital thresholds and compliance costs will be structural, not cyclical.
SEC Chair Atkins has expressed support, calling it "the most historic step to date." The SEC and CFTC are even synchronizing crypto asset classification outside of legislation.
The executive branch is paving the way, the legislative branch is sprinting, and traders are changing anchors.
So Killa’s narrative shift isn’t personal preference; it’s a signal:
When the smartest traders shift attention from the FOMC to Senate votes, it means pricing power in crypto markets is shifting.
From the cyclical pulse of monetary policy to the structural reshaping of regulatory frameworks.
Interest rates are tides—they rise and fall. Regulations are riverbeds—once changed, they don’t revert.
$BTC $ETH $FIL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Going all in short on $FIL!!
Dog whales, don't you like to pump?
Why aren't you pumping anymore? Come on! Keep pumping!!
My position is right here.
If you have the guts, blow me up directly!
Yesterday I saw it surge from around 0.8 all the way up.
I thought this thing was really going to break through the ceiling in one go.
No turning back at 0.90.
No stopping at 0.95.
The highest it went was 1.0336.
When that big bullish candle appeared,
almost everyone in the market was chasing longs.
Everyone thought
once it stood above 1 dollar,
there would be more to come.
But what happened?
Now it has dropped back to around 0.963.
I entered this short position
around 1.0117,
with 50x leverage.
As soon as the price dropped,
the return rate shot up to around 240%.
Although the position size isn't big,
I really like this rhythm.
The key point isn't how much I make,
but that it finally can't pump anymore.
The most annoying part before
was that every time you thought it had risen enough,
it could still pump one more leg.
But now it's different.
After hitting the 1.03 high,
it's obvious someone started dumping above.
It didn't even hold 1 dollar.
Now it has even fallen below 0.98 again.
With this kind of movement, I just want to see
how long you can hold on.
Next, I'll watch 0.95 first.
If it continues to leak down here,
it will likely test around 0.92 again.
If it can't even hold 0.90,
those who chased the big bullish candle earlier
probably won't be able to hold on.
Of course,
I won't think I'm invincible just because it goes my way now.
$FIL, a coin that just had a volume explosion and a violent pump,
can easily be slammed back by a retracement.
If it really stands back above 1 dollar
and then takes down 1.03 again,
I will reassess.
Shorting can be aggressive,
but not foolish.
Looking at $ETH again,
it's around 2514 now.
After that big wick at 2667 earlier,
it has been fluctuating between 2460 and 2540 recently.
I'm not interested in chasing this market for now.
It hasn't fully broken through above,
and there's always someone buying below.
Whoever gets anxious first is likely to get hit.
$ZEC bounced back today,
rising from around 1040 back to 1138,
up more than 7 points in a day.
But the previous high at 1299 is still there.
At most, I can say the rebound is strong.
If it really wants to turn strong again,
I want to see if it can reclaim the 1150 to 1200 range.
So right now, my focus is still on $FIL.
Dog whales,
you were pumping happily yesterday,
you even let me touch 1.03.
Why not continue today?
Come on,
keep pumping.
Better yet, get it back above 1 dollar.
My short position is right here.
Either lift me out,
or I'll wait for you to slowly give back that big bullish candle from yesterday!
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 $CORE: What does a daily release of 0.01% really mean?
Many people see the circulating supply continuously increasing and their first reaction is:
“CORE will keep releasing, won’t there always be selling pressure?”
But let’s look at it from another angle.
If we calculate using a simple math model of increasing by 0.01 percentage points daily:
• Daily release ≈ 210,000 CORE
• Annual release ≈ 76.65 million CORE
• Maintaining this fixed rate, theoretically it will take about 6.5 years to complete the remaining release
So what really matters is not “how much CORE is left unreleased.”
But rather:
Can the growth in ecological demand absorb the speed of new supply?
If in the future BTCFi, staking, DeFi, CoreBTC, and other ecosystems continue to expand, and the actual usage demand for CORE grows faster than the new supply, then the release itself may not be the biggest bearish factor.
Conversely, if supply keeps increasing but on-chain demand, TVL, users, and capital do not grow in sync, then even a daily 0.01% release will accumulate pressure over the long term.
So when looking at CORE, I pay more attention to three indicators:
① Speed of circulating supply growth
② Speed of ecological demand growth
③ Market’s ability to absorb new supply
The true long-term value is not about “whether there is a release.”
But:
Whether the released CORE has more and more places that need it.
The long-term logic of CORE ultimately comes down to one sentence:
Supply is fixed; demand determines value. Coverage: Gold · Crude Oil · AI Storage Chips (SK Hynix / Micron / SanDisk / Samsung / Changxin Memory) · AI Industry · Crypto Market (BTC / ETH) | Macro: US Treasury Yields, US Dollar Index, Federal Reserve Rate Hike Probability Explanation: Prices are based on the most recent closed Eastern US trading day, i.e., Eastern US closing on Friday, September 11 = 04:00 Beijing time, September 12; News and Asia-Pacific market updates are up to 10:30 Beijing time on September 14. I. Core Points (5 points) · 1. Oil Price Second Ignite: On Monday, Brent rose over 3% intraday to return above $107, WTI returned above $102. The reason is that the Saudi East-West oil pipeline (7 million barrels per day) was preemptively shut down due to drone attacks, and traders estimate that about 4% of global oil supply is at risk. Simply put, the only export channel in the Middle East that can "bypass Hormuz" has been cut off, making already tight supply even tighter. 2. AI chips hit by "narrative killing": On Monday, Asia-Pacific KOSPI fell over 3%, SK Hynix fell more than 5%, Samsung Electronics fell 3.6%, and TSMC dropped 1.24%. The trigger was Anthropic CEO Amodei's long article on September 12 titled "We Must Put the Brakes on Cutting-Edge Technology," which OpenAI's Altman and xAI's Musk collectively endorsed within hours🔥 $BTC /$ETH /$SOL |THREE DIFFERENT FORMS OF VALUE
$BTC monetizes trust in scarcity.
$ETH monetizes demand for programmable blockspace.
$SOL monetizes demand for high-speed execution.
That’s the deeper difference.
Bitcoin is strongest when people want a monetary asset.
Ethereum is strongest when people want to build.
Solana is strongest when people want to transact at scale.
Three networks. Three economic models. One evolving digital economy. ⚡🧠
#SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflowAfter a prolonged sideways movement, $AEON chose a violent downward breakout following a failed bottoming attempt.
I shorted at 0.05841 with 20x leverage; the current price is 0.04832, yielding an unrealized profit of +345.48%.
It is currently approaching the 0.048 support level. Market volatility may increase around mid-September. If it breaks below, expect 0.04; if it rebounds, it will be an oversold recovery, so decisively exit and wait. $BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Last week I said CLARITY's approval rate was only 17%, the wedding wasn't held, but the child's name was already chosen.
This week, the groom pushed the door open himself.
What blocked the entire bill was the ethics clause, "Can officials hold crypto or not."
Trump softened: accepting a bipartisan plan about 80%, officials must either divest crypto asset interests or put them into a blind trust. The Republicans rushed to insert this version into the new text overnight, and Schumer is also gathering key Democrats to discuss their stance.
The 7 votes that were previously missing suddenly have room for negotiation.
What exactly is this bill fight about?
In one sentence: whether a coin is regulated by the SEC or the CFTC. Without clear rules, institutions with money dare not enter. So don't underestimate these 60 votes; they decide not just a bill, but who will be the referee of the US crypto market going forward.
Getting Trump to agree to restrict officials from holding crypto is like having the dealer install surveillance at the table himself. His agreement shows he needs this bill to pass more than anyone.
My judgment last week only changed halfway: the vote on the 15th was just procedural, entering the door doesn't mean passing, there are still debates and final votes ahead, but this time the door really opened a crack.
When it truly lands, altcoins will be much more flexible than Bitcoin; part of the price discount now is due to regulatory uncertainty.
Those who laughed at my 17% last week, this week it's your turn to be nervous.
#特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ZEC ZEC surged then pulled back, don't be misled by the ETF bullish sentiment!
ZEC previously oscillated and climbed from around 1000 to 1297, but after reaching this level, it did not continue to break out with increased volume; instead, it gradually retreated, indicating that selling pressure above is still quite evident. The price is now back near 1053, and the key point is: it has not broken below the previous low.
This shows that there is still capital supporting around 1050, and the lower support has not been truly broken yet.
My view on ZEC now is: the mid-term logic remains intact, but there is no need to blindly go long in the short term just because of the ETF.
Previously, ZEC's price movement was mostly driven by crypto community funds; now, with ETF participation, there is indeed an additional channel for traditional capital to enter, which is a positive factor for the long-term narrative.
But the problem lies here—capital entering does not mean the price will only rise without falling.
The market is currently sensitive to Federal Reserve policies, coupled with inflation pressure from rising oil prices, which tends to suppress risk appetite across the crypto market. ZEC has already experienced a significant rally earlier, so chasing higher now does not offer an attractive risk-reward ratio.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
Therefore, my view is: if the 1050 level holds steady, it indicates ongoing support below, and we can observe the strength of any rebound; if 1050 is effectively broken, don't rush to buy—wait for the next support level.Investing $10,000 in $DOGE in 2013, at the then price of $0.00026, would have bought over 5.7 million coins; if held until today at $0.085, the market value would be close to $500,000. The real aspect worth analyzing in this capital curve is not the price increase itself, but the coupling mechanism between chip distribution and community consensus. $DOGE had no pre-mining, early distribution was relatively decentralized, and tipping, small rewards, and charity formed its circulation scenarios. In 2014, the community raised funds to send the Jamaican bobsled team to the Sochi Winter Olympics, later participating in Kenyan water well projects and racing sponsorships. "Do Only Good Everyday" became a long-term adhesive. My understanding is that price is just the result; what truly supports the bottom is the continuous willingness of people to use it for small payments and public affairs. From a market impact perspective, this kind of low-cost, highly circulating chip structure, once re-priced, easily amplifies the spot buying pressure on the order book and also drives emotional linkage in the meme sector. But the risks are equally clear: although early low-price chips are dispersed, if long-term holders cash out in concentration, liquidity support may be insufficient; the meme attribute also makes its valuation more dependent on sentiment rather than cash flow. Observationally, attention can be paid to whether real uses like tipping and charity continue, as well as the outflow rhythm of large addresses. Please assess volatility and position size on your own. Many people have a misconception: they think the longer they watch the market, the more they earn. The truth is: the longer you watch the market, the faster you lose. Why? Because people have weaknesses. If you focus on every 1-minute to 15-minute candlestick movement, your greed and fear will be magnified infinitely. A slight rally risks missing out; a slight pullback risks being stuck. Finally, frequent trading is worn down by fees and friction costs. 🔑 Trading Xiaowen's breakthrough advice: 1. Set direction for big cycles: filter out 90% of noise. 2. Set stop-loss and take-profit in advance: let the machine execute for you, don't test human nature. And don't rely on intuition! 3. Close the app and go live: drink tea when you should, sleep when you should. Remember: your profits aren't made by watching the market, but by 'waiting.' #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is the new highlight $LSK Demon Coin Bureau: After a 775% surge in 24 hours, who is harvesting?
LSK staged a textbook case of a "long and short double kill."
A 775% surge within 24 hours, reaching a high of 2.37U, with liquidations totaling $34.54 million topping the entire network — among them, short positions worth $31.28 million were forcibly liquidated. Market sentiment instantly ignited, and buyers rushed in chasing the rally.
However, the script took a sharp turn:
The project team launched the first wave of sell-offs, dropping from 2U straight down to 1U, leaving the bulls stunned; then related addresses deposited 3.29 million LSK (about $3.79 million) into Binance, ammunition ready; when the price rebounded to 1.22U, the second wave of sell-offs came mercilessly, pushing the price directly down to 0.7U.
Those chasing the highs, bottom fishing, and shorting—all were trapped in the same pit.
This is not a market move, it’s a harvest. First, blow up the shorts, then silently kill the bulls. The project team holds the chips and address movements, with timing as precise as a scripted play. Behind the $34.54 million liquidation is the blood and tears of countless retail investors.
The Demon Coin Bureau never lacks stories, but it lacks people who remember the lessons. Next time a 775% surge appears, ask yourself: Who is carrying your sedan chair in this rally? And who is waiting for you to take the bag?$ETH's recent trend has maintained a high correlation with $BTC, with the price retreating to around 2480. When the overall market is under pressure, capital also tends to stay on the sidelines; on-chain activity has neither shown clear support nor significant deterioration. In the short term, ETH is still dominated by the market sentiment, and independent price movements are not obvious.
Personally, I still consider ETH as part of a medium- to long-term allocation, and short-term price fluctuations are mostly normal volatility. Changes in relative strength are more worth watching than absolute price — if ETH can show stronger resilience when BTC stabilizes, or if its decline during pullbacks is significantly less than BTC's, it may indicate a shift in capital preference. Conversely, if it moves in sync or even weaker, it suggests that risk appetite is still contracting overall.
In terms of operations, I avoid frequent in-and-out trades during pullbacks. Position management is more important than chasing rises or cutting losses, especially in phases where the direction is not very clear. Patience and waiting for clearer signals is my current preferred approach. The fundamental logic of ETH (ecosystem, applications, staking, etc.) has not changed due to short-term price fluctuations, but market pricing is often more influenced by sentiment and liquidity.
In the current environment, I pay more attention to its correlation with BTC and whether any divergence appears. If a clear divergence occurs, it may provide some trading clues; if highly synchronized, it indicates the overall market is still the dominant factor. In either case, position control and risk awareness are more critical than directional judgment. Maintaining discipline is key to going further amid volatility. #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 #星球日报 Nearly 90% bet on rate hikes, yet BTC hovered around 77,000 and refused to move—this picture is very subtle. Do you think the market is too calm, or are people waiting for a reason not to move first? I watched the market all day, and my biggest feeling wasn't panic, but hesitation. Rate hike expectations were close to 90%, which should have weighed on risk assets, but BTC didn't crash—it just kept grinding around 77,000. This kind of sideways move is neither strong nor weak; it's the crowd collectively moving their fingers off the order button before the FOMC. What's really interesting is the temperature difference between sectors. ETH is holding 2500, and only above 2600 are people willing to buy, targeting 2800 to 3000, but the flow of funds after the FOMC is the key. ZEC, a highly volatile product, is set aside as a trend position: only buy above 1200, reduce below 1150, cut in half if 1080 falls, and only add volume after 1250 breaks. SOL is more cautious, only watching near 100, only entering after 105 confirms. This isn't bullish or bearish; it's the discipline of position after being taught narrative fatigue. The allocation of 1.1 million U is itself a sentiment map. BTC 350,000, ETH 250,000, ZEC 200,000, SOL 150,000, cash 50,000. That 50,000 in cash isn't idle; it's reserved for a possible selling window after the FOMC. Leverage capped at 3x, only trend trading, not using high leverage to gamble on data. Simply put, when trading, it's not about direction, but about reaction speed after events unfold. The path to a bullish bias is clear: if rate hikes are dovish, BTC will stand up$BEAT - Daily: Bulls 30%, Bears 70%
Reason: Bears reduce positions to stop the decline, but OBV continues to flow out, no incremental bullish funds, the overall trend remains bearish.
- 4-hour: Bulls 38%, Bears 62%
Reason: Bottom consolidation, short positions closing bring a slight rebound, but without increased positions to support, the rebound is easily pressured and likely to fall back.
- Short-term: Bulls 48%, Bears 52%
Reason: Range consolidation, bears closing positions support the bottom, upward movement lacks volume, the upper resistance zone offers a better risk-reward ratio for shorting.
5. Trading Plan
Resistance zone shorting (priority approach)
Entry range: 0.0910 ~ 0.0919, touching 4h EMA30, 15-minute long upper shadow, RSI turning down
✅ Additional filter: Price surges but OI does not show a significant increase, OBV still declining, this is an excellent shorting signal indicating no new funds in the rise; if price rises with a large sustained increase in OI, cancel the short plan.
Stop loss: 0.0945
First take profit: 0.0800; Second take profit: 0.0730
First take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.83:1 | Second take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 6.17:1BTC breaks out with increased volume on the 4-hour chart, but the trading volume of seven coins drops by 31% in the next hour
BTC closed at 77593.4 between 08:00 and 12:00, surpassing the previous 4H high of 77452.1; the trading volume for this period was 3.65 times that of the previous period.
Between 12:00 and 13:00, six out of seven sample coins still closed higher, but the total trading volume dropped from 35.9555 million to 24.7876 million USDT, a decrease of 31.06%. ETH closed at 2514.86, still below the previous 4H high of 2527.63, so the breakout has not yet fully spread.
Confirmation: BTC closes above 77864.3 in the next hour, and the sample trading volume returns above 35.955 million; invalidation: BTC closes below 77452.1. Would you consider the volume contraction as a breakout consolidation, or wait for ETH to surpass 2527.63 first?
#BTC #ETH #MainstreamCoins #TradingWatch$BTC market is red but lonely, market cap +0.37%, trading volume exploded by 31%—volume is out, but it's all concentrated on BTC.
Altcoins are all green, the stock sector dropped the hardest at -1.95%, meme, AI, DeFi all pulling down one after another. BTC dominance is nearly 60% again, funds haven't moved to altcoins at all, they're all hiding in BTC for safety.
Right now:
BTC 77500+, back to being a safe haven
ETH 2511, looks like it hasn't dropped much but just can't rise, trading volume even bigger than BTC—trapped positions are still grinding
ZEC 1113, -2.7%, the cannon fodder among privacy coins, falling the hardest
SOL 101, lying flat
One detail: ETH trading volume is 6.22 billion, nearly 60% larger than BTC's 3.925 billion; this morning the ratio was 1.84 times, now narrowed to 1.58 times. Narrowing ratio = turnover/pressure on ETH is easing, the chips chasing highs and stop losses this morning have mostly left. But as long as ETH volume is still bigger than BTC and price is weaker than BTC, it means ETH is still digesting floating chips, not ready to launch.
Don't rush into altcoins just because the market is red today; this market is the "Did you make money?" phase, not the "Making money" phase. Those with heavy positions should hold tight to BTC, light positions shouldn't rush to bottom-fish altcoins, wait until the sector stops being green to talk. What did I say?
I already said it doesn't have the three advantages of timing, geography, and human harmony!
What I said yesterday came true this morning.
This morning, I guess many brothers were wailing, a deep underwater bomb directly smashed down to 1040.
Although it has pulled back now, there's no panic at all; this pullback is just a small rebound.
If it doesn't pull back, that would actually be a big problem.
Why is the manipulator doing this now?
The main reason the manipulator is doing this is to change retail investors' psychology, making everyone believe that the 1040 level below $ZEC is a solid bottom, an unbreakable floor.
If people think this way, that's exactly what the manipulator wants to see.
The timing, geography, and human harmony I mentioned yesterday still hold today: the Fed's rate hike expectations are pressing down, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have collectively turned bearish (timing).
ZEC was pushed up to 1299 by positive factors like NYSE listing and Grayscale ETF, but now the positive news is exhausted and it continues to drift down (geography).
The latest long-short ratio data shows large holders shorting at 72.05%, while retail investors blindly chase longs, making the long side extremely crowded (human harmony).
The big trend is downward; any rebound is just a paper tiger.
My 50x short at 1147 didn't run when it dropped to 1040 this morning, and now that it's back, I definitely won't run.
Don't be fooled by this brief illusion; let's wait for the waterfall. Watch it break below 1000.
$BTC
$ETH
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ There is a detail in this market rally worth highlighting: Ethereum is much stronger than Bitcoin. You can tell just by looking at the structure. The support level below Ethereum is continuously moving up, indicating increasing demand and that the bullish momentum hasn't faded. The horizontal resistance above formed a breakout after last week's CPI data release, and after the breakout, it didn't fall back below the support. So my judgment is straightforward—even if there is negative news this week and the market is pressured, Ethereum will probably just pull back a bit, and the core support at 2400 is unlikely to break in the short term. Don't easily bet against it. Extending this to altcoins: this wave is actually led by Ethereum, and BNB, as the leading altcoin, naturally holds strong with its risk resistance. But overall, I have to pour cold water on altcoins: it's still too early to call a "surge." There are several reasons. First, the bear market adjustment period isn't long enough; from the peak, it's only been a bit over 200 days, which is short compared to the four-year cycle logic. Second, the essence of altcoins is to attract traffic, drawing people into the ecosystem, but the focus will ultimately return to Bitcoin, which attracts traffic and capital. Since last year, exchanges have started tokenizing on the US stock market, essentially because altcoin liquidity is drying up. The vast majority of altcoins with market caps in the tens of millions will eventually be eliminated, leaving only a small number of mainstream and leading ones. So my stance is: mainstream and leading altcoins still have opportunities, with gains possibly a bit higher than Bitcoin, but nothing exaggerated; those that haven't risen and are purely storytelling, I won't touch at all now. Some ask if they should switch to Ethereum with a large position when it reaches 3300, and then switch back to Bitcoin after it goes above 3000.3. ETF·Institutional Funds (The Most Important Spot Signal)
✅ BTC Bitcoin
In the past 4 trading days, there has been continuous net redemption outflows, totaling about $462 million for the week. Institutions have been reducing positions and taking profits on rallies in the short term, without continuing to significantly increase holdings. This is one of the core reasons why BTC struggles to break above 79,300.
✅ ETH Ethereum
Completely the opposite, last Friday saw a large single-day net inflow of $216 million, the largest single-day inflow this month. Institutional funds are allocating to ETH, optimistic about ETH's future narrative (upgrades, spot ecosystem), so recently ETH has been relatively resilient and more elastic.
4. On-Chain Whale Movements
1. BTC: Large whales have not engaged in frantic mass sell-offs by depositing large amounts to exchanges, but small batch sell orders at high levels continue; long-term holders are still withdrawing coins to cold wallets, indicating decent bottom chip lock-in.
2. ETH: While ETF institutions are buying, some early whales are gradually transferring out to exchanges to take profits on rallies. There is a layer of potential selling pressure on ETH, which explains why despite many positive factors, each rally feels more exhausting than the last. Latest CME FedWatch data: 86.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
Core CPI monthly rate is 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%. The two-year US Treasury yield jumped above 4.42%. Goldman Sachs reversed its stance, changing from "no change" to "expecting a 25bp hike."
The market has already priced the rate hike into the candlestick chart.
Then Killa tweeted, with just one sentence:
"Most macro narratives are just noise. BTC starts moving before the reasons become obvious."
On one side, there's an 86% pricing; on the other, there's "stop watching."
Who is right?
First, let's clarify who Killa is.
In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688. On June 5, when the market dropped broadly, he reversed to long. In May 2025, he predicted the peak of this bull market.
This is not a talkative KOL. This is someone who speaks with positions.
He says macro is noise, not to show off. He's telling you: by the time you focus on CPI data and dot plots to trade, the price has already moved.
Correlation is lagging. The market doesn't move because most people understand it—most people think they understand because the market has moved.
But 86% and the "noise theory" are actually not contradictory.
This is what most people haven't figured out.
What does an 86% rate hike probability mean? It means the rate hike is already priced in. Whether the Fed hikes 25bp on Wednesday is no longer news to the market. The news is something else.
The real question is never "whether to hike."
It's "what Powell says after the hike."
If he hikes and adds, "this is a one-time action," the market will instantly spit out all the fear priced in about a "restart of the tightening cycle." Short covering could pull BTC back to 78,000 or even higher. Goldman Sachs itself admits in its report: if the Fed doesn't hike when the market expects nearly 90% probability, "it could trigger severe market volatility."
What hurts you is never the rate hike itself. It's that you gave up your chips at the wrong position out of fear of the hike.
So what should ordinary people do on the eve of the FOMC?
Three principles, in plain language:
1. Don't heavily bet on direction before the decision. An 86% probability is not for you to leverage up. If the remaining 13.5% happens, your position goes to zero immediately.
2. Watch the price reaction after the FOMC, not the decision itself. If the hike happens and Powell is hawkish, and BTC doesn't fall but rises—that's what Killa means by "price moves before reasons." This signal is a hundred times more valuable than the dot plot.
3. $76,380 is the current technical lifeline. This is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from BTC's June low of 57,766 to the August high of 82,130. If it breaks below here, the next target is 72,820. Don't go all in above 76,380; keep a bullet in the chamber.
An 86% rate hike probability means the market is ready.
What will really hurt you is not the rate hike itself, but that you gave up your chips at the wrong position out of fear of the hike.
$BTC $ETH $FIL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ For those still profiting from BTC, ETH, and SOL, under double pressure, should you take profits now, and how to do it in batches?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
The biggest fear with unrealized gains is riding an elevator—another dip during the day, over 120,000 liquidations across the network. The three coins that are still making money have completely different profit-taking rhythms.
With the Middle East situation heating up and the rate decision approaching, risk assets are broadly down. $BTC has fallen back to 76,700, $ETH dropped to 2,476, and $SOL is hovering around 100. It's precisely at times like these that you need to think carefully about how to protect your profits.
BTC is the anchor; you can take a large portion of your unrealized gains before the rate decision, reducing risk by selling a small part first, then selling more if it breaks 76,500. ETH is weaker than the market during the day and has lost 2,500; unrealized gains are thin, so take some profits to lock in gains and keep a base position to see if it can recover. $SOL is high beta; when risk appetite cools, it gives back gains fastest. Prioritize taking profits on the flexible position, and buy back after the drop. Take profits in two to three batches—don't clear out all at once, nor hold everything.
If the Middle East situation eases and the rate decision is dovish, hold the base position to ride the rebound; if conflict escalates and the rate decision is hawkish, you won't panic if you've already taken profits, and can deal with breakdowns later. Taking profits isn't bearish; it's about not letting your gains ride an elevator back down.Korean Stock Night Session Plummets on First Day｜System Reform Meets External Pressure, Semiconductor Heavyweights Lead the Decline
The Korea Exchange officially launched night trading on September 14, becoming the first major market in Asia to introduce continuous bidding during nighttime hours. The regular trading hours remain unchanged from 9:00 to 15:30, with an added continuous bidding night session from 16:00 to 20:00, covering nearly 2,400 mainstream stocks on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ, supporting both long and short trades, with price fluctuation limits maintained at ±30%.
However, on the first day of the reform's implementation, the market did not see the expected increase in activity; instead, it opened under pressure. The KOSPI index opened lower and continued to fall, dropping more than 3% intraday. Samsung Electronics fell over 3.6%, SK Hynix plunged more than 5%, with semiconductor heavyweight stocks leading the decline.
The sharp drop was not caused by the night trading system itself. On that day, rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East put global risk assets under pressure. The Korean stock market is highly tied to the semiconductor sector, and external sentiment-driven sell-offs were the main triggers. As the night session is just starting, liquidity is relatively weak, and a small amount of capital can amplify volatility, further intensifying market fluctuations.
The core goal of Korea launching the night session is to connect with European trading hours, attract international capital inflows, reduce overnight gap risks, and overcome the "Korean stock discount" dilemma. However, extending the trading window does not directly lead to price increases; instead, it exposes the market to more overseas news shocks, simultaneously increasing volatility and slippage risks. There is still about 40% room to reach the previous high of approximately 126,000 in October 2025, and the market is still digesting the last bubble. Whether the four-year cycle is invalid depends on whether ETFs can continue to hedge selling pressure. It is currently neither a panic bottom nor a euphoric top, but a "waiting for catalyst" consolidation phase. $BTC I'm watching $SNDK: 1564, -2.89%, US stock market closed overnight. The stock is weak but NAND stabilization expectations are rising, this contradiction is interesting, let's elaborate below.
📰 News: Yahoo is focusing on a 20x rebound from the 52-week low, but GF Securities says NAND prices may stabilize in the second half of the year, which is more critical for SanDisk's fundamentals.
🔧 Technicals: Daily RSI at 53.9 neutral, MACD bearish crossover with expanding green bars, broke below MA7/MA25 but 7/25 moving averages still in bullish alignment, the pullback hasn't broken the structure.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens down 0.91%, overnight closure leaves tokens without an anchor, short-term sentiment is cautious.
🎯 Today's view: Bullish. NAND stabilization expectations + token negative premium buffer, technical pullback does not change the mid-term logic.
📊 Token 1,564.09 (-2.89%) | Stock 1,633.35 (-3.50%) | Premium -4.24% | US stock market closed overnight
💎 Summary: Watch NAND price signals and token premium recovery, don't be scared by short-term green bars.
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