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Institutions add 211 million heavily to storage stocks, who else is willing to enter and lay low in the crypto space?
On August 4, the US stock storage sector saw a single-day total turnover exceeding $32 billion, with a large amount of institutional funds entering to increase holdings in leading stocks like SanDisk and Micron Technology. The storage sector's single-day capital inflow hit a near one-month high.
NVIDIA maintained a 2.56% gain, with AI computing hardware still being the core long-term institutional allocation.
After all funds crowded into the US hardware sector, incremental liquidity in the crypto space is nearly dried up. Bitcoin spot ETF funds have been fluctuating back and forth, with a single-day peak outflow of $265 million.
Every slight rebound in Bitcoin triggers institutional share reductions, leaving only retail investors' existing funds to engage in short-term trading across the market.
When the current short-term hype around storage chips fades and speculative funds exit the hardware sector, will they be willing to flow back into the crypto sector?#临时通航协议待落地，油价风险尚未反转 The US and Iran are using Oman as a mediator to advance negotiations on a 60-day temporary navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz. The easing expectations have driven crude oil prices to plunge sharply, with WTI falling nearly 6% in a single day. The market is focused on clearing the risk premium previously pushed up by geopolitical conflicts, but multiple variables mean the downward trend in oil prices is not yet established, and bullish risks still lurk.
There are fundamental disagreements in the negotiations: the US claims the agreement can be officially announced in the short term, while Iran denies direct talks with the US. The two sides find it difficult to reach consensus on control of the strait, passage rules, and conditions for lifting maritime blockades. Even if a temporary agreement is signed in the short term, it is only a 60-day arrangement and cannot fully resolve long-term geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, incidents of attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea have not completely subsided, and the risk of localized conflicts in the Middle East remains.
Supply and demand continue to provide bottom support for oil prices. Currently, it is the global peak season for summer crude oil demand. OPEC+ maintains its production cut strategy, Gulf crude oil exports still have a significant gap compared to pre-war levels, and global crude inventories are at recent lows. A simple cooling of sentiment cannot reverse the tight supply situation.
This round of decline is only a phase of expectation-driven correction, not a trend reversal. If negotiations break down and US-Iran maritime friction escalates again, oil prices will quickly restore the premium; even if the agreement is reached, market focus will shift to nonfarm payrolls, Federal Reserve policy, and OPEC production guidance. The wide-range oscillation in crude oil prices will continue, and blind short selling is not advisable. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 report, French President Macron stated: the EU and its partners will continue to increase pressure on Russia and continue to advance various sanctions measures.
This news needs to be viewed in layers, distinguishing between verbal statements and substantive implementation actions.
At this stage, it is only a position statement; no new round of sanction lists, or specific restrictions in energy, finance, and crypto sectors have been announced yet.
Reviewing historical patterns:
Purely tough verbal warnings are unlikely to sustain a rise in geopolitical risk premiums in the short term; what truly moves the market is the implementation of a new round of enforceable sanctions.
Two transmission paths to closely monitor
1. Energy side
If subsequent sanctions tighten Russian oil trade, it could again disrupt global crude supply expectations and push oil prices higher. Rising oil prices would reignite inflation concerns, indirectly limiting the Federal Reserve's rate cut space and suppressing risk asset valuations (BTC, US stocks).
Conversely, if it is only verbal deterrence, the energy market will most likely continue its current volatile pattern.
2. Potential risks in the crypto sector
The EU's recent rounds of sanctions have continuously targeted crypto trading channels that help Russia evade controls. Once a new round of sanctions is implemented, it will likely expand compliance constraints on overseas exchanges and cross-border crypto transfers, causing short-term sentiment shocks.
Trading considerations
The market has just digested the positive news of eased US-Iran negotiations and falling oil prices, with geopolitical sentiment at a low.
Macron's remarks serve as a risk warning signal but are insufficient alone as a basis for opening positions.
Key points to watch going forward:
✅ Whether a detailed sanction draft is issued;
✅ Whether crude oil, US bonds, and risk assets show sustained correlated reactions.
BTC is currently oscillating within a range awaiting direction; geopolitical news will only cause short-term pulse fluctuations.
Before substantive policy implementation, continue to follow the original range strategy and avoid prematurely speculating on geopolitical black swans.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Content is for idea exchange only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH$SNDK $DOGE Any curve that brings staking yield to zero earlier than at 100% staked is essentially a centralization tool.
It is simple.
Reaching 100% staked is practically infeasible, but if it does, there is no point in paying for staking anymore. Hence, a curve that goes to zero at 100% staked could be at least considered reasonable.
What about any curve that zeroes out staking rewards for all stakers at N < 100%? Simple again!
What we will see is a survival game. If we assume there is demand to stake more than 50% of $ETH (as all issuance proposals do), then the staking ratio will get as close as possible to 50% or even reach 50%. And then we wait. We wait for the small players to die out or just quit staking. While institutions like BitMine will be able to afford zero staking rewards for long enough so that others will leave and staking rewards will become positive again.
Now ask yourself, is it what we really want?
As a person who devoted the last 5 years of my life to Ethereum decentralization improvement and strengthening, I take this proposal as a clear signal that its authors are against decentralized Ethereum!This is the kind of positioning I like to watch.
SolsticeFi Season 2 distributed a massive 185.1B flares.
At today's numbers, that works out to roughly:
175 $SLX per 1M flares
Around $13.4 in value per 1M flares.
But here's the interesting part...
One participant managed to accumulate 1.35% of the entire Season 2 airdrop with an estimated cost basis of just ~$8K by aggressively buying YT.
According to their math, the trade becomes profitable if the project reaches a fully diluted valuation above $20M.
Will it happen?
Nobody knows.
But I always pay attention when someone is willing to size up before the crowd arrives.
Sometimes that's where the best asymmetric bets are found. The storage chip sector is entering a super cycle bull market, so why has the crypto market become the institutional funds' abandoned child?
UBS data shows that in June, global storage chip total sales reached $74.6 billion, a month-on-month surge of 31.7%. Flash memory spot prices have been raised for several consecutive months, officially marking the start of a cyclical reversal in the industry.
On August 4, SanDisk surged 9.02%, with a TTM P/E ratio reaching 46.25. The market has already priced in earnings bonuses in advance. Micron and SK Hynix also rose across the board, making the storage sector the strongest main theme in the current US stock market.
In contrast, the crypto market is overall quiet in terms of funds. The Ethereum ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $12.3 million, and over 70% of altcoins have been declining in the past 24 hours.
Institutional funds prefer hardware stocks with quantifiable revenue and order data. Bitcoin lacks physical business revenue support, compounded by the prolonged delay in US crypto regulation implementation.
As long as policy uncertainty persists, large institutions will not enter the crypto space on a large scale. When will the crypto market be able to shake off its status as the abandoned child of capital?Isn't Saylor the "Never Sell Your Bitcoin" guy? Strategy sold BTC three times in one week, offloading nearly 3,000 coins!
Michael Saylor, who once always said "Never Sell Your Bitcoin," has personally split that phrase in two — "I personally don’t sell a single satoshi, but Strategy is a public company, so it has to sell when necessary."
The latest facts pieced together from on-chain data and SEC filings:
• 7/27–8/2: Sold 1,638 BTC at an average price of about 63,957 USD, cashing out approximately 105 million USD (below their average cost of 75,419 USD, selling at a paper loss)
• Shortly after: Sold another ~300 BTC (~18.9 million USD)
• Early morning 8/5: On-chain transfer/sale of 1,030 BTC (~66 million USD)
• Total in one week: ≈2,968 BTC, just shy of "nearly 3,000 coins," with current holdings still as high as 842,138 BTC (4% of the entire network)
Where did the money go? It’s not a bearish bet on BTC, but to rescue the capital structure:
• Half paid as dividends on STRC preferred shares
• Half used to repurchase discounted STRC (face value 100, market once dropped to 89)
• Conveniently issued 3.01 million new MSTR shares, raising 290 million USD to boost USD reserves to 4 billion USD
So don’t believe the clickbait headlines about a "super bull turning traitor." The real story is:
BTC premium flywheel (mNAV>1 issuing shares to buy coins) stalled → preferred stock dividends pressure → using BTC as a liquidity faucet to preserve the financing shell.
But market sentiment can’t be stopped:
• The largest corporate bull is selling at a loss, short-term retail investors panic about "who’s the next seller"
• MSTR is down over 40% this year, BTC dipped to the 62k range, STRC hasn’t returned to face value, so selling won’t stop
• The board has authorized up to 5 billion USD in BTC liquidation capacity, and they’ve only sold a small portion so far
My judgment:
For BTC spot, it’s a sentiment negative but the actual selling pressure is controllable (3,000 coins vs. 842k holdings);
For MSTR, it’s a "de-mythologizing" pricing, with per-share coin content growth dropping from 13.3% to 3.5%;
For retail investors, the reminder is — don’t read the founder’s meme as the company’s balance sheet.Italy's major bank slashes 90% of $BTC ETF holdings, triples staked $ETH position; institutional money starts "picking and choosing"
Italy's largest bank Intesa Sanpaolo's latest 13F filing stunned the market: in Q2, it cut BlackRock's IBIT common shares from 646,800 to just 40,700 shares, a 93.7% drop, and slashed call options by 99.3%, while simultaneously establishing a new 500,000-share IBIT put position. On the other hand, it increased its staked Ethereum ETF ETHB holdings from 116,200 shares to 349,600 shares, tripling the position. On the surface, it looks bearish on Bitcoin, but it's not that simple—it still holds 3.47 million shares of ARKB, worth over $67 million, which remains its largest crypto ETF holding.
The real highlight here is not "the bank is bearish on BTC," but that institutional asset selection criteria have changed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold idle coins that generate no income; staked ETH yields 3% to 4% protocol rewards annually. For a bank treasury accountable to an investment committee, an asset that "earns interest while held" is obviously easier to justify than one purely betting on price. This also explains why it cuts naked longs while buying downside protection—not bearish on the industry, but dissatisfied with the risk-reward of pure long exposure.
Looking at the market, BTC is around $64,000, slightly up intraday but still below the 200-day moving average, with support at $62,800 and resistance at $64,300 and $65,000. RSI is neutral to weak, a typical pattern of having resistance above and support below. ETH is near $1,860, stuck at the upper edge of the $1,800–$1,820 support zone, with strong resistance at $1,950–$2,000. SOL is around $73, still consolidating within a triangle, with a floor at $69 and no chance unless it breaks $79. The Fear & Greed Index is 36, in the fear zone, confirming the saying—institutions are quietly rotating positions in weakness, not chasing rallies.
The core contradiction is: ETF fund flows are no longer about "whether to enter," but "which to enter." Bitcoin ETFs just ended two months of outflows, with $170 million inflows in July, indicating demand is alive but more selective. Going forward, funds focus on assets with cash flow logic—staking yields, on-chain activity, real users. Intesa's filing signals the trend: institutional crypto allocations are shifting from "buying digital gold and holding" to "buying assets that work." #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH The thing I don't like most about cutting issuance discourse is lack of positive vision for Ethereum validator set. Original design was not prescient enough, but has clear design goals: hundreds of thousands of individual stakers, running Ethereum all across the world.
Status quo proponents also have a version of positive vision - e.g. Lido has built community staking, is decentralizing and geographically distributing validator set. We're successfully making a staking protocol that can bring Ethereum closer to original goals via opinionated, non-neutral decisions that base protocol can't adopt.
Cutting is just "do it or it's going to get worse", no clear vision of good validator set we're solving for. They're given up on original vision, but don't want to clearly admit it and offer a new one.Everyone is celebrating the massive $UNI outflows from Binance.
The narrative is simple:
"Coins are leaving exchanges... bullish."
Maybe.
But that's not the question I'm asking.
I'm asking what investors are actually buying into.
Right now, more than half of Uniswap's daily revenue comes from Robinhood Chain—a network that's only been live for a few weeks.
That's impressive...
But it's also a concentration risk.
If Uniswap v4 expands revenue across multiple ecosystems, great.
If not, the market could eventually start valuing $UNI as a Robinhood proxy rather than a standalone DeFi giant.
I'm still bullish on Uniswap.
I just think this is the risk almost nobody is talking about. 👀Currently, about 41.5 million ETH are staked on Ethereum, accounting for 34.03% of the total supply. There are still 2.4836 million ETH waiting to enter the validator queue, with an estimated wait time of 43 days; only 128 ETH are in the exit queue.
While staking demand remains clearly strong, EIP-8363 proposes a completely different reward logic.
This draft sets a "saturation line" at 60.25 million ETH, roughly corresponding to 50% of the total supply. As the staked amount approaches this line, the proportion of consensus layer rewards burned will gradually increase; when it reaches 60.25 million, the protocol issuance earned by well-performing validators will be fully offset.
Transaction priority fees and MEV income are not included in this burn, so "staking yield dropping to zero" is not entirely accurate. More precisely, consensus layer issuance rewards will gradually approach zero, but validators may still receive execution layer income.
The current staked amount is still 18.75 million ETH short of 60.25 million, requiring about a 45.2% increase. Even if all 2.4836 million ETH currently queued enter, the staking ratio would only rise to about 36.1%, leaving significant room before the saturation line.
The controversy arises before reaching 50%.
The draft plans to complete the transition in 18 months. According to community calculations based on the proposal formula, when the staked amount is around 42 million ETH, the comprehensive validator yield may drop from about 2.65% currently to around 1.26%, nearly halving.
For a validator with 32 ETH, the annual yield would roughly decrease from about 0.85 ETH to around 0.40 ETH, not accounting for hardware, electricity, maintenance, taxes, and downtime losses.
Large staking institutions can spread server, monitoring, and personnel costs across thousands of validators, but individual validators must bear fixed costs alone. The proposal originally aimed to avoid staking concentration in large custodians, but with declining yields, higher-cost individual validators may exit first, which is the main point opponents criticize.
DeFi will also be repriced accordingly. Staking yield is a crucial base rate for stETH, LST, LRT, ETH lending, and leveraged staking strategies. Forum participants estimate that staking yield needs to exceed borrowing costs by at least 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points for leverage loops to have enough room. With compressed yields, ETH borrowing demand, staking derivative income, and related protocol TVL may all be affected.
Supporters worry about another set of numbers: Ethereum currently issues about 1.056 million ETH annually, with a supply growth rate of about 0.85% per year. If validator entry remains fully loaded long-term and exit volume stays low, by early 2028, staked ETH could exceed 70 million, accounting for over 55% of supply.
They believe that increasing staking ratios will not proportionally enhance security but will increase control of ETH by custodial institutions and liquid staking platforms, while continuously diluting holders who do not participate in staking.
Currently, EIP-8363 remains an open core protocol draft, not approved nor officially included in the Hegotá upgrade. August 6 is only the deadline for submitting candidate proposals, not the final deadline for implementation decisions.
This debate cannot be simply summarized as "bullish deflation" or "bearish staking" for now. The real question to answer is: will reducing issuance lower staking concentration, or will it first eliminate higher-cost individual validators.
#以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Analysis of the current round of gold and silver price increases
1. Current Market Situation
Spot gold prices surged to 4167, with a single-day increase of 2.2%. Silver strengthened simultaneously, and precious metals have closed higher for three consecutive days, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the market.
The Eurozone released two PMI data points in the evening, both exceeding expectations:
July Services PMI final at 51.7 (expected and previous 51.6)
July Composite PMI final at 52 (expected and previous 51.9)
The Eurozone economic data recovery indirectly suppressed the US dollar index, which is positive external news for gold and silver.
2. Multiple Driving Factors Behind This Round of Gold Price Rise 📊
1. Cooling US Inflation Data
US June PCE declined month-on-month, easing inflation pressure. Market expectations for rate hikes cooled, US Treasury real yields fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which benefits precious metals.
2. Continued Large-Scale Gold Purchases by Global Central Banks
The Bank of Korea resumed gold purchases after 13 years;
China's central bank has been purchasing gold for 20 consecutive months;
In Q2, global central banks collectively bought 289 tons of gold, a 62% year-on-year increase;
Central banks' gold purchases essentially represent a de-dollarization strategy, providing a long-term solid support for gold prices.
3. Geopolitical News Eases Burden
The temporary US-Iran agreement on the Strait of Hormuz eased crude oil tensions, causing oil prices to fall and reducing inflation pressure, which creates room for the Federal Reserve to adopt a looser policy.
3. Market Characterization: Medium- to Long-Term Slow Bull Market
This gold and silver price rise is not a short-term speculative rally but supported by three core logics:
Continuous backing purchases by central banks worldwide;
A turning point downward in US Treasury real interest rates;
Monetary risks brought by overseas fiscal expansion.
Short-term data like non-farm payrolls and CPI will cause oscillations and shakeouts. Compared to high-volatility risk assets like Bitcoin, gold is more stable.
4. Practical Risk Warnings ⚠️
Not suitable for all-in heavy positions at once;
Prefer to wait for price pullbacks and build positions in batches;
Eurozone PMI positive news has already been priced in, so attention should be paid to US data and sudden fluctuations in the US dollar index in the evening that may cause short-term corrections.The USDT we deposited was just rated the worst by S&P
S&P Global did something this week that no one had done before: it issued a real report card for stablecoins. On Monday, it gave BlackRock's newly launched tokenized money market fund BRSRV an AAAm rating, the highest principal stability rating S&P can give to a fund. On Tuesday, it ranked 11 stablecoins at once, concluding that only 6 out of the 11 have sufficient or stronger ability to maintain the dollar peg.
Let's first look at this ranking. USDC, EURC, USDG, and USDP received level 2, which S&P describes as strong. USDT is at level 5, described as weak by S&P. TUSD and USDe are also at level 5. The same thing called a stablecoin has underlying quality differences of three levels, but when people buy them, who actually checks this page?
Why this matters for you to pay more attention to: USDT is the liquidity foundation of the entire crypto market. The vast majority of trading pairs, lending positions, and cross-exchange arbitrage are tied to it, and it has always been treated as quasi-cash. But from the reserve quality perspective, S&P places it three levels below USDC. This rating hasn't just worsened today; it has always been there, but this is the first time someone has put it in black and white in a public report.
Now look at what BlackRock's BRSRV is aiming for. It's not an ordinary money market fund; it's specifically targeting the GENIUS Act, aiming to make its shares qualified stablecoin reserve assets. It holds cash, U.S. Treasuries maturing within 93 days, and Treasury-backed overnight repos, with a weighted maturity of no more than 60 days, keeping volatility extremely low. In other words, going forward, stablecoin issuers will have to store reserves according to new U.S. regulations, and BlackRock wants to sell its tokenized fund as that high-quality underlying asset to them.
The implication of this game is that the stablecoin money-making business is stratifying. On one end are the top stablecoins with weaker ratings and reserve compositions that are questioned year-round; on the other end is BlackRock redefining what qualifies as reserves using Wall Street's rating system. Whoever controls the rating discourse controls the entry point to stablecoin underlying assets.
A practical observation point for traders: stop treating all stablecoins as the same. When you see net outflows of stablecoins on-chain, you need to distinguish which ones are leaving. If one day the outflows concentrate on the weaker-rated stablecoins, the liquidity impact will be much greater than outflows from strong-rated ones like USDC, and the market reaction will be faster and more intense. S&P's ranking is essentially handing you an early warning list.
As for the play, BlackRock's approach of using ratings as a threshold is very savvy. It’s not competing for stablecoin issuance shares; it’s competing for the reserve assets that must back stablecoin issuance. This business is more stable than issuing coins because no matter who issues the coins, the reserves always need a place to go.
Will you swap USDT in your portfolio for USDC because of a rating report?The voices declaring the AI bubble has burst have not yet faded,
but the US stock market has already started to reverse?
What has been the biggest concern in the market over the past few months?
It's not that AI lacks demand.
It's a more realistic question:
With so many giants pouring money into building data centers, buying GPUs, and expanding computing power,
will these investments ultimately turn into revenue?
If not, AI is a huge capital black hole.
That's why the market recently showed clear divergence regarding the AI industry chain.
Nvidia, semiconductor, and cloud computing-related stocks have fluctuated sharply, and capital began to doubt:
Has AI already overdrawn the future?
After Microsoft's earnings report, market expectations changed to some extent.
Azure growth remains strong, the company continues to invest in AI infrastructure, and the market sees these investments turning into real cloud business demand. Microsoft's previously released earnings showed that Azure and other cloud services maintain rapid growth, and the company continues to expand AI-related capital expenditures.
This signifies an important change:
AI is no longer just a "future story."
At least for now, some business models have started to work.
This is why the market has recently begun to chase the AI industry chain again.
From Nvidia to Micron, from SanDisk to SK Hynix, capital is returning to computing power, storage, and data centers—those who benefit most directly.
Looking at the S&P 500.
After the previous round of adjustments, the index did not break key structures.
Instead, it completed a consolidation at a low level and then broke through resistance areas again.
From the candlestick chart, after the market panic subsided, buying gradually returned.
If it can continue to hold above the breakout level, this looks more like a trend repair rather than a simple rebound.
In fact, the S&P 500 has recently refreshed its stage highs, and market sentiment has warmed with improved AI-related earnings expectations.
Of course, this does not mean the US stock market is without risks.
Valuations remain high.
Whether AI investments can continue to deliver still needs to be verified by subsequent earnings reports.
But the biggest change in the market is:
Before, everyone asked:
"Will AI make money?"
Now they ask:
"Who can make money from AI?"
These two questions are not even on the same level.
What the capital market fears most is not companies spending money.
It fears spending money without seeing returns.
And the signal Microsoft has sent this time is telling the market:
The AI investment cycle may be moving from the storytelling phase into the profit verification phase.
If this logic continues to hold, the reversal after this round of US stock market adjustments may have just begun.
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高
$SPY Behind the coin that rose 100 times in 9 days stands Binance itself
Let's start with a timeline. On August 5th, half an hour before SpaceX's financial report was released, a meme coin called MarsCoin on BSC began to surge, with its market cap once reaching $70.53 million, setting a new all-time high. The 24-hour increase was about 110%, with a trading volume of approximately $25.1 million. Counting from its issuance on July 27th, the cumulative increase over 9 days exceeded 100 times.
The mechanism of this coin is worth dissecting; it’s different from those cat or dog coins before. When you buy or sell MarsCoin, a 3% transaction tax is charged on each trade. This money goes into the project treasury, automatically converted into SPCXB, and then distributed according to rules to eligible holders. SPCXB is the tokenized stock of SpaceX within the bStocks ecosystem—in simple terms, SpaceX’s stock made into an on-chain token.
So theoretically, holding this meme coin allows you to passively receive exposure to SpaceX’s assets. Sounds great—a meme coin actually generating cash flow.
But who pays for this benefit? Let's do the math. The SPCXB distributed to you comes from the 3% fee paid by others trading. This income entirely depends on trading volume; if volume cools down, the rewards stop. It’s not a dividend but a game of hot potato with a different accounting method.
More importantly, look at another set of numbers. On PancakeSwap V2, the liquidity pool between MarsCoin and SPCXB holds about $944,000, containing roughly 8.1 million MarsCoin and 4,040 SPCXB. The market cap is $70.53 million, but the actual money that can take over is less than $950,000—a difference of over 70 times. Yet the 24-hour trading volume is $25.1 million, meaning the same batch of tokens is repeatedly traded within this small pool.
What does this structure imply? CATE already demonstrated this a few days ago—trading volume under $1.5 million smashed the price down by 60%. When the pool is shallow, rapid rises happen because it’s easy to push the price up, but it also falls quickly for the same reason. You only realize the depth is insufficient when you want to exit.
Now, who is pushing behind the scenes? On July 30th, MarsCoin entered Binance Alpha, marking the first meme project there in over four months, with a short-term surge over 525% after the announcement. On the same day, CZ publicly expressed support for meme coins. On August 1st, Binance Wallet launched a stock Meme section; on August 4th, reward rules were announced requiring centralized exchange users to hold at least 10,000 coins monthly to qualify. On August 5th, Aster launched perpetual contracts, and Binance added 10 more bStocks tokenized stock trading pairs that day.
The pattern is clear. Over the past year, Solana has been the main stage for memes, with Pump.fun’s model creating an on-chain closed loop for issuance and dissemination, making the listing halo of trading platforms fade. This series of moves essentially aims to reclaim the traffic gateway for themselves.
A practical indicator for traders: don’t just look at market cap and gains; divide market cap by pool depth. The larger this ratio, the closer your orders are to being mere decorations. Blockworks’ statistics show that out of 1,972 tokens, only 4.1% outperformed BTC, the median loss is 97%, and even fewer survive two years.
In the long run, the direction of combining memes with RWA (Real World Assets) might have potential—turning attention into asset income is a new path. But the current version’s value capture still depends on someone continuously taking the other side of trades; it’s not a moat.
Would you take on a coin with less than a million in the pool just to earn a little tokenized stock reward? #1 trillion KRW poured into data centers, not a cent flowing into the crypto market
Today in Seoul, an agreement was signed where the department in charge of science and technology communications and the Korea Development Bank jointly funded a 1 trillion KRW AI infrastructure fund. Converted, that's about 700 million USD, which isn't a scary absolute number, but the direction is very clear: next-generation AI data centers, plus supporting power and energy facilities.
Following this money, the path is very clear. The starting point is public funds and policy banks, using a fund structure to leverage private capital, and the endpoint is racks, substations, and cables. The last time these two institutions teamed up was in 2006, investing in universities, Incheon Airport railway, the new Bundang line, and power plants. After 20 years, they reunite, but the investment focus has shifted from railways to computing power.
The department in charge says that the ability to secure data centers and power networks stably is becoming a determinant of national competitiveness. Translated, this means the next battle isn't for chips, but for power outlets.
On the same day, the Korean stock market also absorbed over 1.4 trillion KRW in net foreign capital inflows, with the AI boom reigniting risk appetite. The flow of these two funds is highly consistent, both pushing towards computing power, with not a cent aimed at crypto assets.
It's not just Korea. In Galaxy's earnings report today, the data center division turned profitable for the first time by leasing 133 megawatts of data center space to CoreWeave. TeraWulf is even more direct, signing a lease with Anthropic for about 401 megawatts, a 20-year term, with an initial contract value of approximately 19 billion USD. Miners and trading desks are now competing to become landlords.
What about us? BTC is still oscillating between 63,000 and 64,000, with the 200-week moving average at 63,657 close to the current price, and the fear and greed index at 28. The CoinDesk data is quite striking: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, priced in Bitcoin, both broke above their 200-week moving averages for the first time since 2012. In plain terms, the same amount of money was more profitable buying crypto than US stocks for many years, but that advantage is temporarily gone now.
This is the real reason for the bottoming process. It's not that some negative news hit, but that incremental funds simply aren't flowing here. Understanding this means changing the approach to swing trading. In an environment without new money entering, the probability of a single bullish candle starting a one-sided rally is very low; the range's upper and lower bounds are repeatedly tested, and volume shrinks smaller and smaller—this is the current norm. The real signals to watch aren't in the price action but in when AI capital expenditures show a turning point and when US dollar liquidity eases.
Looking further ahead, money is piling up in power and racks, and once it reaches a certain level, overcapacity and declining returns are inevitable. At that point, funds will have to find new destinations. What crypto should do during this period is solidify cash flow and compliance, waiting for its turn. There's no use rushing or complaining about the market.
Do you think this round of funds will remember the crypto street anytime soon, or do you simply not believe it will come back at all? #The thing I don't like most about cutting issuance discourse is lack of positive vision for Ethereum validator set. Original design was not prescient enough, but has clear design goals: hundreds of thousands of individual stakers, running Ethereum all across the world.
Status quo proponents also have a version of positive vision - e.g. Lido has built community staking, is decentralizing and geographically distributing validator set. We're successfully making a staking protocol that can bring Ethereum closer to original goals via opinionated, non-neutral decisions that base protocol can't adopt.
Cutting is just "do it or it's going to get worse", no clear vision of good validator set we're solving for. They're given up on original vision, but don't want to clearly admit it and offer a new one.SanDisk, are you chasing me to kill me?
Family, I'm really speechless.
SNDK short position, opening average price 1423.69, closing average price 1470.83, loss -3.93U, return rate -68.25%.
When shorting you, there's just one spike that blows me up, and after the explosion, it crashes back down. I'm too familiar with this script.
📌 How did this trade get wiped out?
After opening the short, SNDK slightly dropped to 1402, the floating profit was pretty good. Then the price started to rebound, spiking directly to 1483.62.
My short was force-closed at 1470.83, precisely blown up, then the price crashed back near 1402.
It's the same familiar formula, the same familiar taste: first spike to blow up shorts, then crash back down.
🔍 Why did this spike happen?
① #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 , fierce capital game
SNDK's earnings report is approaching, and the issues of HBF and storage shortage have sparked heated discussion. The market has big disagreements on earnings expectations, with both bulls and bears betting.
In this situation, major funds often use information advantages to make short-term profits. They spike to blow up shorts, then crash back to profit from both sides.
② After large holders reduced positions, shorts were targeted and liquidated
Yesterday, 4 early bulls reduced 8321.8 shares of SNDK, equivalent to about $11,111,000 at current prices.
After large holders reduced positions, there might be more shorts in the market. Seeing the shorts gathering, the main force directly pulled a spike to liquidate them.
💡 What went wrong?
First, 20x leverage is still too high before earnings.
Opening price 1423, forced liquidation price 1479, a difference of 56 points (about 3.9%). Volatility before earnings is naturally large, and 3.9% tolerance is simply not enough.
SNDK spiked from 1402 to 1483, a 5.8% increase. With 20x leverage, a 5.8% reverse move is enough to liquidate.
Second, shorting before earnings = betting earnings will be worse than expected.
Shorting before earnings is essentially betting "the earnings will be bad." But no one knows the result until the last moment. Big funds have information advantages; retail traders can only guess.
Third, ignoring the common tactic of "spiking to blow up shorts" before earnings.
Before earnings, both bulls and bears are betting. Major funds often spike to blow up shorts first, then crash back. I've been liquidated by this tactic several times.
🎯 What to do next?
1. Before SNDK earnings, I won't touch it.
Regardless of bull or bear, I won't touch it before earnings. Wait for the earnings release and clear direction.
2. If you really want to trade, use light positions + lower leverage.
Use less than 10x leverage to leave enough room for volatility. Or just use spot, avoid contracts.
3. Wait for earnings to land before acting.
After SNDK earnings are announced, the market will give a clear direction. Then follow the trend, which is much more reliable than guessing now.
Final words
Family, I really give up.
When shorting you, you spike to blow me up, then crash back down.
SanDisk, are you chasing me to kill me?
But I’ve summarized a rule: before earnings, it’s best to keep your hands off.
(This is purely a personal trading record and does not constitute investment advice.)
$SNDK
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 USDT Market Cap Decline Reaches Historically Extreme Levels
“Historically, the market's deepest USDT contraction phases have also marked points where selling pressure was closer to exhaustion than to further acceleration.” – Read More$BTC $ETH Terra peaked at 43% LUNA stake at something like 15% APR & 10,000 airdrop and liquidity mining schemes layered on top of staking while being the hottest ponzu in crypto...also having in-protocol delegation and in-protocol LST so less risk...also being in a low-interest-rate QE/covid subsidy macro environment that we'll probably never get again in our lifetimes...
there is basically no reason to think $ETH staking will ever get to 50% no less 100%, just a bunch of hysterical bullshit....$ETH #EarningsRealityCheck The Trump administration is considering setting minimum prices and imposing tariffs on imported polysilicon and related products under "Section 232," focusing on the low-cost capacity formed by long-term subsidies from China. The policy has not been finalized yet but has entered substantive discussion.
This time, the U.S. is starting to take action further upstream, preparing to set a price floor and impose tariffs on imported polysilicon.
Of course, this protects domestic material manufacturers in the U.S., but photovoltaic developers and downstream companies may not be so happy; when raw material prices rise, the project costs ultimately bear the burden.
Now, the semiconductor and AI supply chains increasingly resemble not just pure technology businesses but pricing determined by policies, tariffs, and subsidies together.
There is no direct benefit for MU and MRVL for the time being, and I don't want to force the concept. What is truly worth paying attention to is that the U.S. is pushing "supply chain security" from chips all the way to raw materials, and costs and profits may need to be recalculated later.SpaceX's first earnings report: revenue doubled, losses narrowed, but shares plunged 8% after hours — Old Mo tells you the real game-changer is the unlocking
Brothers, last night SpaceX released its first earnings report since going public.
The data is quite impressive. Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, far exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $6.9 billion. Net loss was $541 million, narrowing 46% from $1.008 billion in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.538 billion, up 191% year-over-year. Loss per share was $0.09, while the market expected a loss of $0.26.
All three major business segments exceeded expectations.
The connectivity business where Starlink belongs generated $4.291 billion in revenue, up 66% year-over-year, with an operating profit of $1.66 billion. Starlink users reached 12 million, doubling year-over-year. AI business revenue was $2.561 billion, soaring 247% year-over-year, achieving adjusted EBITDA profitability for the first time. Aerospace business revenue was $962 million, up 29% year-over-year.
Performance exceeded expectations across the board, yet the stock price fell more than 8% after hours.
Why? Capital expenditures exploded. Q2 capital expenditure was $18.37 billion, of which $15.8 billion was AI-related. Last year at the same time it was only $2.8 billion, and $7.7 billion in Q1. The CFO said on the call that Q3 and Q4 capital expenditures will be similar to Q2. The AI business had an operating loss of $1.26 billion in Q2, with revenue of $2.56 billion, losing nearly half.
The market is doing the math: $7.8 billion revenue vs. $18.4 billion capital expenditure — the burn rate is more than twice the earning rate. Musk says the investment payback period is less than a year, but the market hasn't seen returns yet, only money burning out.
But the bigger variable is the day after tomorrow — August 6, when 911.5 million restricted shares unlock.
Currently, tradable circulating shares are only about 5% of total shares. On August 6, this will double to about 12%. By the end of the year, the float will expand to 5.33 billion shares, about 40% of total shares.
Short sellers have already set their traps. As of July 29, SPCX short positions were 219.3 million shares, accounting for 34% of publicly tradable shares. When first disclosed on June 16, it was only 23.3 million shares. The head of S3 Research bluntly said: "The big bet right now is around the unlocking; the market is betting that earnings won’t offset the impact of a large number of unlocked shares entering the market."
27 institutions gave "buy" ratings, with an average target price of $223. Morgan Stanley targets $300. Mizuho $200, Macquarie $250. But Piper Sandler just lowered its target from $156 to $140.
Sellers unanimously bullish, shorts aggressively adding — such an extremely divided situation is rare.
The unlocking triggered by earnings is automatic, regardless of performance. On August 6 at market open, up to 911.5 million shares can be sold. These shares have very low cost basis, so selling is pure profit. Will they sell? When? How much? No one can answer. But selling pressure is real.
Back to the market. SPCX fell from the June high of 225.64 to around 125 now, a drop of over 44%. Pre-market it once dropped over 10% to 112.69. Resistance is at 135-140 (IPO price range), support at 108-110.
Old Mo says a few honest words. SPCX’s earnings numbers are not bad — revenue doubled, losses narrowed, Starlink users broke 12 million, AI revenue surged 247%. But the market doesn’t buy it because capital expenditure is too high and will continue to be high.
More importantly, over 900 million shares unlock the day after tomorrow. No matter how good the earnings look, the supply shock is real. Shorts have huge unrealized gains and are still adding, betting that some holders won’t hold and will sell after unlocking.
In terms of action: if you have a position, look for opportunities to reduce or set protective stop losses today. If you want to bottom-fish, wait until the unlocking happens and selling pressure is absorbed. 108-110 is the first observation zone; if volume shrinks and stabilizes, you can lightly try going long with a stop loss below 100.
Do you think SPCX can hold through this unlocking? Let’s discuss in the comments.
If you think Old Mo’s analysis is clear, please like and follow. I’ll alert you first when the unlocking happens. $BTC $SNDK $SPCX #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ SpaceX's earnings report exploded, but the real show is just beginning🚀
$7.814 billion in revenue, a 92% year-over-year increase.
Losses narrowed from $970 million to $143 million.
The first earnings report after SpaceX's IPO directly tells the market one thing:
This company’s valuation isn’t supported by stories, it’s genuinely growing rapidly.
But here’s the problem👇
What the market is most conflicted about now isn’t whether SpaceX has a future.
It’s:
After the lock-up period ends, who will catch these shares?
Many growth stocks face their most dangerous moment not because of poor performance, but because of “good news being priced in + massive lock-up expiration.”
The better the earnings, the more profit-taking from early investors.
If there’s heavy selling pressure after the lock-up, short-term funds might choose to take profits first.
But if the market can absorb these shares, the signal released will be very strong:
👉 Institutional funds are willing to buy in
👉 The market recognizes long-term value
👉 SpaceX’s valuation logic continues to strengthen
What’s even more worth watching is that SpaceX is transforming from a “rocket company” into a “space infrastructure + AI gateway.”
They are collaborating with Nvidia to develop the Starmind AI satellite computing payload, which has huge potential.
The future competition isn’t just about ground-based AI computing power.
Whoever controls space communication, orbital resources, and data gateways may control the next generation of infrastructure.
So from now on, I’m only watching three things:
1️⃣ Whether there’s panic selling on the lock-up day
2️⃣ Whether funds quickly step in after any drop
3️⃣ Whether the AI satellite business continues to be implemented
My view:
The earnings prove SpaceX’s strength; the lock-up expiration will determine the market’s price for it.
The real big money won’t just look at one day’s rise or fall.
They’re waiting for:
The market’s answer after a good company goes through short-term pressure.
This exam for SpaceX, the earnings report is just the first question.
The next question is the capital market’s ability to absorb it.🚀 🛢️ Hormuz is about to reopen, and the war premium is drained in one breath
· Besente: It is possible to reach an agreement with Iran tomorrow to open the Strait of Hormuz
Rubio: progress in the negotiations; Iran's position softens, considering letting Europe into the Strait for mine clearance
· WTI intraday-5%, falling back to $74.66; Stoxx600 hit a new high in July
Once the oil collapses, the logic of "war = inflation = interest rate hike" becomes loose. Half a month ago, the market was afraid of oil prices pushing up inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to not cut interest rates. Now this downward catalyst is being dismantled one by one, and risk assets collectively breathe a sigh of relief-half + 6%, Intel + 10%.
The only thing that's still pretending to sleep is encryption. $BTC is stuck at 64K, and risk assets do not follow when they rise, but they fall when they fall. This divergence of "following the decline and not following the rise" is the most important signal to focus on now-the narrative favors the bulls, but the price has not caught up.
Don't rush to translate macro positives into reasons to buy. We'll wait for $BTC to get its own direction, then we'll talk about whether to follow. Walk to see 🧊$BTC $ETH Brothers, DOT rose 2.18% today to $0.8512, starting a technical rebound from the $0.8243 support and is testing the key resistance at $0.8550. It has recently seen consecutive gains, with the daily chart showing a bullish divergence: price made a new low, but RSI rose, indicating weakening downward momentum. This is only a pre-signal before reversal and still requires a volume breakout confirmation.
Fundamentals show a clear split:
Polkadot 2.0 is continuously advancing, with Coretime launched to lower developer entry barriers; a hard cap of 2.1 billion DOT supply is set for March 2026, significantly reducing annual token issuance. JAM upgrade is under development, with 43 teams competing for a 10 million DOT prize pool, aiming for mainnet launch in 2026 but with delay risks, making it a long-term narrative.
However, on-chain DeFi activity is near freezing: DefiLlama recorded only 4 traceable DeFi protocol transactions on August 3; leading Hydration TVL has retraced over 80% from its peak, showing a clear disconnect between ecosystem usage and token rebound.
Key levels:
Resistance: $0.8550–$0.8697, a breakout targets the $0.8820 gap up
Support: $0.8243–$0.8450, losing this is considered a false breakout
Trader’s view: Only a volume-supported hold above 0.8550 and a double bottom structure can confirm the move.
This is a technical correction after overselling; 0.8550 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. Only a volume-supported hold can continue the rebound, otherwise, a retest of the 0.8243 support is likely. The trend is highly influenced by the BTC market.
Personal market analysis and information compilation, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $DOT
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 Today is the most dangerous day for the US stock market this year.
Not because of a drop, but because it has risen too well.
The S&P hit a record high, SpaceX far exceeded expectations, AMD doubled, Palantir rose 29%.
Everyone is celebrating, but Barclays just released a set of data: 85% of companies exceeded earnings expectations this quarter, higher than the long-term average of 76%.
However, whether exceeding or falling short of expectations, the average stock price reaction is negative.
When exceeding expectations becomes the norm, the market’s next demand is not "good," but "stunning."
Reviewing what happened in the US stock market last night:
SpaceX’s first earnings report after going public far exceeded expectations.
SpaceX Q2 revenue was $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected $6.88 billion; EPS was -$0.09, expected -$0.24; EBITDA rose 191% year-over-year to $3.5 billion.
All three major businesses grew across the board: Space +29%, Starlink +66%, AI +247%; Starlink users surpassed 12 million, backlog orders reached $47.5 billion.
Elon Musk dropped two bombs during the call: SpaceX could achieve $1 trillion in revenue by 2030; computing power will exceed 2GW by the end of this year and approach 10GW by the end of 2027, all built on NVIDIA.
AMD data center doubled, establishing a duopoly.
AMD Q2 revenue was $11.5 billion, up 50% year-over-year. Data center revenue was $6.72 billion, up 107% year-over-year; adjusted EPS rose 246% to $1.66.
CEO Lisa Su stated EPYC acceleration, Instinct deployment growth, and Helios ramping up. Doubling the data center is not achievable by just picking up scraps; the AI chip market is moving from NVIDIA’s dominance to a duopoly.
Palantir surged 29%, the best single-day performance since April 2025.
Earnings exceeded expectations combined with raised guidance. Citi raised the target price from $200 to $245, Goldman Sachs from $183 to $204. Palantir is currently the only pure software company truly selling AI to governments and enterprises and continuously receiving payments.
Anthropic signed a $10 billion computing power agreement.
Signed a long-term computing contract with NVIDIA-backed Volta Infra, capacity from a Norwegian data center; frontier model labs are still aggressively locking in computing power with no signs of slowing down.
The US is preparing to ban imports of Chinese data center optical components.
The Trump administration is drafting a ban targeting optical transceivers in AI data centers. After the news, optical communication stocks collectively surged; AAOI, LITE, COHR all benefited. The US-China chip decoupling has expanded from chips to optical communications.
US-Iran negotiations made progress, oil prices fell 4%.
Rubio said both sides made progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz; Bessent said the agreement could be announced as early as tomorrow, further easing inflationary pressures.
Rocket Lab won a $397 million Space Force contract.
Rocket Lab will build and operate satellites for real-time tracking of aerial threats; commercial space continues to expand its role in defense.
The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high, with total market capitalization increasing by $1.2 trillion.
The AI chain—from chips to software to aerospace to infrastructure—delivered results exceeding expectations.
However, SpaceX has 911.5 million shares unlocking the day after tomorrow; this selling pressure is the first test of whether the rally can continue.
In a market where "exceeding expectations is not enough," a day of celebration does not equal the establishment of a trend. Everyone is trying to connect AMD's momentum with $CHIP
I think they're looking at the wrong metric.
USD.AI doesn't lend against GPUs.
It lends against the cash flow those GPU clusters can generate.
That's a huge difference.
As long as utilization stays high and AI infrastructure keeps producing predictable revenue, expanding AMD's presence is actually supportive for compute lending.
The real question comes later.
If more vendors flood the market and GPU pricing compresses over the next few years, collateral quality changes.
That's why I'm watching MI300X utilization and server GPU pricing—not AMD's stock reaction.
$AMD This afternoon, I saw a Q&A event on the planet about "What impact does the trillion-dollar Capex investment by tech giants have on the crypto space?" I stared at that question for about three seconds, and what flashed through my mind wasn’t some AI concept coin skyrocketing, but the real principal I got beaten down by in the trading room from quantitative models.
Honestly, everyone is discussing whether decentralized AI computing power is the next bull market trend, but for us real traders who watch the order book and fight every day, the most direct and ruthless impact of the AI wave is that it has completely crushed the swing trading skills we once took pride in.
Some short-term traders in the group asked me: Boss, why haven’t you posted any short-term contract trades recently? Is it because you don’t understand the current consolidation, or do you think the volatility isn’t enough?
I told them the truth directly: It’s not that I don’t understand, it’s that with the current order book, no human can physically compete with machines anymore.
You think you’re watching the 15-minute candlestick, monitoring funding rates and order book ratios to make a clever short-term long decision.
But what’s really happening is that Wall Street and top market makers are using trillion-level AI computing power to train ultra-high-frequency quantitative models that are aggressively front-running in microseconds.
At the moment of data releases like non-farm payrolls or US Treasury auctions, these AI algorithms can read text data in fractions of a microsecond, instantly calculate the liquidation levels across the entire crypto options market, and execute tens of millions of dollars in spot hedging dumps before retail traders even have time to blink.
Traditional support, resistance, and double bottom spikes are like paper walls that collapse instantly in front of these emotionless AI quant algorithms that only calculate chip liquidation levels.
Every leverage multiple you add and every stop loss you set is just the cheapest fuel for their delta-neutral hedging in the market makers’ backend algorithm models.
I used to be a fool who believed that hand speed and short-term systems could beat the market in short-term arbitrage. Whenever there was big volatility, I thought it was a golden period to show professional skills, opening high-frequency contracts to front-run data releases. But in several sudden bearish attacks, my long positions were forcefully liquidated without slippage by spot dumps from AI algorithms before I could even cancel orders, wiping out my profits completely. When I saw the investment bank’s ultra-high-frequency trading reports showing machines react tens of thousands of times faster than humans, a chill ran down my neck. I realized competing with machines to front-run was a death wish. Yesterday, without hesitation, I cleared my last swing position and retreated to zero-leverage long-term spot holdings.
Admitting human limitations is the hardest lesson in risk control, but it also preserved my only bottom-line card for early August.
In the endgame of algorithmic dimensionality reduction strikes, controlling your impulses and not overtrading is the only winning strategy.
In the coming August, keep a close eye on the implied volatility of Nasdaq tech stocks (VXN) and the ultra-high-frequency financial algorithm trading volume ratio disclosed by the New York Fed. In front of the Wall Street machine meat grinder armed with trillion-level computing power, control your hands, admit your limitations, and honestly retreat to spot to buy your ticket to survival.
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ The biggest danger for ETH right now isn't a drop, but that positive news is starting to lose its value.
In July, spot ETFs saw renewed inflows, and news of institutions hoarding coins hasn't stopped. In previous markets, any one of these factors alone could have driven a rally. But after ETH surged near $1970, it was pushed back down and is now stuck around $1870, even underperforming the entire crypto market over the past 7 days.
What does this mean?
It's not that no one is telling stories, but rather that there isn't enough capital willing to buy at these high levels.
Between $1900 and $1970, ETH is full of trapped positions from earlier chasing rallies, which get released on any rebound; below $1850, the level is repeatedly tested. The longer it grinds here, the weaker the support becomes. If $1850 breaks, it's very likely ETH will test around $1800 again.
What's more troublesome is that ETH currently lacks an independent uptrend.
When BTC holds steady, ETH's rebound is slower; when BTC dips slightly, ETH often falls faster. This shows that while the market talks about ETFs, institutional allocations, and on-chain ecosystems, actual capital still treats ETH as a highly volatile risk asset rather than a core holding.
So I won't chase longs just because there are "many positives." The real actionable signal isn't another company buying ETH, but whether the price can volume-wise reclaim $1900 and hold above it on a pullback.
Until then, ETH feels like a car flooring the gas pedal but the wheels are slipping. It makes a lot of noise but isn't really moving forward.
This is just my personal market observation, DYOR. $ETH The current DRAM ETF has good allocation value: Changxin Memory's refusal to accept Apple's price cut request confirms the rising bargaining power of memory manufacturers, with Samsung and SK Hynix jointly supporting price stability. Coupled with AI smartphones and servers driving incremental demand for high-end DRAM, the profitability recovery of constituent stocks is relatively certain; however, attention should be paid to risks such as Apple's supply chain diversion, overseas manufacturers' capacity expansion, and high interest rates suppressing sector valuations. It is suitable to accumulate in batches during pullbacks rather than chasing high and heavy positions.BTC has rebounded, but the sentiment hasn't caught up.
Surf data shows BTC 24h +0.89%, but the fear and greed index is still 28, remaining in Fear;
Futures OI is about $48.6 billion, and the funding rate is only slightly positive.
This indicates that funds haven't entered for mindless chasing of the rally; more is probing liquidity.
My judgment: this looks more like a correction rather than a main upward move.
BTC holds above 64.5k and the fear and greed index has consecutively returned to the neutral zone. The market these past two days has not been speculating on "rate cuts," but rather on the "cooling of rate hike expectations."
The logic is simple:
Hormuz negotiations heat up
→ Crude oil prices fall
→ Inflation pressure eases
→ Probability of a rate hike in September decreases
→ U.S. Treasury yields decline
→ Gold and U.S. stocks rebound
However, "no rate hike" means maintaining the current rate, not an immediate rate cut.
Directly extrapolating this into a continuous surge in gold and BTC is essentially using macroeconomic narratives to justify chasing the rally. Especially since BTC has not shown a clear follow-through, which actually indicates the crypto market remains weak.
What we are seeing now is a retreat from rate hike trades, not the start of a rate cut cycle. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
SpaceX's earnings exceeded expectations, so why is the stock still falling?
The report looks quite good, yet the market's first reaction was to keep selling.
This is how the US stock market is now:
It's no longer enough to just make a lot of money; everyone also wants to ask—how much are you planning to burn?
SpaceX's Q2 data is not bad:
✔ Revenue of $7.814 billion, 13.2% above market expectations
✔ Loss per share of $0.09, better than the expected loss of $0.26
✔ Operating margin of the Starlink business reached 38.6%, showing strong profitability
But what really suppresses the stock price are other data points:
✔ Quarterly capital expenditures reached $18.369 billion, 41.3% higher than expected
✔ Free cash flow for the first half of the year was about negative $25.01 billion, meaning earnings far from cover expansion investments
✔ AI business revenue was $2.561 billion, but capital expenditures reached $15.828 billion, about 6.18 times the revenue
If the current investment pace continues for the next two quarters, annual capital expenditures could reach about $65.2 billion, roughly 34% higher than previous market expectations.
This means: business growth is indeed fast, but the burn rate is even more alarming.
More troubling is that on August 6, about 911.5 million shares will become eligible for sale, equivalent to 141% of the current float.
Unlocking does not mean all these shares will be sold, but even if only some shareholders choose to cash out, it will significantly increase short-term selling pressure.
So the contradiction SpaceX faces now is simple:
Fundamentals are improving, but cash flow is still poor;
Revenue beats expectations, but capital expenditures exceed even more;
Positive earnings have not yet been digested, but unlocking pressure has already arrived.
Next, watch if the $104.83–$110 level can hold.
If it holds and rebounds above $115.72, the stock may enter a high-volatility trading range between $105 and $125; only a stable break above $135 would count as a true recovery.
If it breaks below $104.83 with volume, it will enter a price discovery phase, and $100 will be just a psychological barrier.
So this time it’s not a bad earnings report, but the market suddenly started to do the math.
Before, seeing “AI, high growth, Musk” was enough to buy up; now, seeing hundreds of billions in capital expenditures and over a billion potential shares for sale, everyone finally remembers:
The story can be told slowly, but the selling pressure will really come down.Seasonal pattern of BTC in the US midterm election year:
Historical data:
August–September 2018: BTC dropped about 20%
August–September 2022: BTC dropped about 18%
August–September 2026: ?
Reasons:
Policy uncertainty in midterm election years
Market often faces a pullback after rebounding in July
Liquidity usually weakens at the end of summer
The pattern exists, but the context and decline vary each year. CLARITY uncertainty puts a heavier policy discount on COIN and CRCL than BTC. On July 21, ethics progress coincided with ~3% in $BTC vs about 9% in COIN, CRCL and a DeFi index. Nasdaq strength, an Asian chip rally and a fifth straight day of spot $BTC -ETF inflows leave causality mixed, but the sensitivity gap is useful. Coinbase shows the mechanism: Q1 stablecoin revenue was $305m, about 23% of net revenue, with $113m in USDC rewards expense. Section 10404 governs customer USDC rewards. That policy risk should hit stablecoin-linked equities and DeFi harder than $BTC .#临时通航协议待落地，油价风险尚未反转
The temporary navigation agreement between the US and Iran is still under negotiation. The current decline in oil prices is only a temporary easing of geopolitical panic premiums, not a fundamental reversal of the supply-demand pattern; there are many disagreements over the terms of the agreement, its validity period is short, and local friction in the strait remains a hidden risk. If negotiations stall or conflicts recur, oil prices could rebound at any time. The risks related to crude oil have not been completely reversed and will also indirectly disturb US Treasury yields and the overall sentiment of crypto assets.#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高
⭐Multiple positive factors resonate, index smoothly breaks through key threshold
On August 4th, the S&P 500 closed at 7736.52 points, up 1.79%, surpassing 7700 points for the first time and setting a new closing record high. The rise was driven by two core factors: a potential agreement between the US and Iran on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to plunge over 5% in a single day and US Treasury yields to decline, easing inflationary pressure marginally; and strong Q2 US earnings reports, with over 80% of constituent stocks beating expectations. Palantir raised its revenue guidance, Caterpillar benefited from increased AI infrastructure orders, and the semiconductor and storage sectors collectively surged, directly pushing the index higher.
⭐Market shows clear structural characteristics, main focus on AI upstream and downstream sectors
This new high is not a broad rally; capital is concentrated. Compute chips, optical communications, industrial equipment, and AI software led gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soaring 6.6% in one day. Leading tech stocks and industrial giants contributed the main points; traditional defensive sectors had limited gains, as capital prioritized stocks that can deliver AI earnings. Market trading logic has shifted, no longer purely speculating on themes but recognizing companies with actual order fulfillment and profit growth. Earnings realization has become the fundamental support driving the index upward.
⭐Medium- to long-term opportunities and risks coexist, positive linkage with the crypto market mainline
On the optimistic side, AI industry chain profits continue to be released and expectations for rate cuts are rising. Institutions are successively raising year-end index targets, leaving room for further upside. Risks lie in current high valuations; if Middle East tensions recur, oil prices rebound, or the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, the index will likely experience high-level volatility to digest valuations. For the crypto market, the warming sentiment in US tech stocks benefits BTC and ETH stabilization. AI-Agent and Ethereum ecosystem mainlines will attract incremental funds, while weaker altcoins still lack market support, continuing a pattern of structural divergence.
$XSPY On August 3, Mastercard announced the completion of an acquisition. The target company is called BVNK, a stablecoin infrastructure company based in London. The total price is up to $1.8 billion—1.5 billion in advance payments plus 300 million in bets. After the news broke, most headlines in the reports were "Mastercard enters stablecoins." That's not wrong, but it's too shallow. The real meaning of this acquisition is not that "Mastercard has started making stablecoins," but rather that one of the two most powerful companies in the global payment system has decided to personally build on-chain pipelines. It's not collaboration, not a pilot, not a proof of concept. They spent $1.8 billion to buy the pipeline. What does BVNK do? Let's first talk about what BVNK does. Simply put: it helps businesses use stablecoins for payments and receipts. Your company must pay a US dollar to the Kenyan supplier. The traditional method uses SWIFT, which arrives in three to five working days, and in between, three or four banks may each charge a fee. How about taking the BVNK path? You give the US dollars to BVNK, which helps you convert them into stablecoins (like USDC), transfer them to Kenya on the blockchain, and then convert them into local currency and deposit them into the other party's bank account. The whole trip may take a few minutes, and the cost is so low it's almost negligible. Sounds like a cross-border remittance tool? and did not stop. BVNK's pipeline network covers more than 130 countries and regions, supporting all major blockchain networks, and processes stablecoin payments of about $30 billion annually. Its clients include Worldpay, Deel, Rapyd,#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？
❤️ Earnings truly exceeded expectations, AI computing power sees high growth implementation
AMD's Q2 revenue and EPS both greatly surpassed market expectations, with overall profitability reaching a historic high. The core driver comes from the data center AI chip business, with continuous growth in server CPU and AI GPU orders. The logic of cloud providers' diversified procurement has been realized, doubling data center revenue year-over-year, becoming the absolute main growth engine. Gaming and embedded businesses remain stable, the company's fundamentals have not weakened, and the AI growth logic is completely valid.
❤️ Core reason for the sharp drop after hours: market priced in advance, expectations too high
This earnings report is a typical case of good news being priced in immediately. AMD's stock price has surged significantly this year, and the market had already priced in its AI substitution logic in advance. Although the earnings report and guidance both exceeded consensus expectations, they did not meet the most aggressive institutional imaginations. Coupled with a significant increase in capital expenditures this quarter and short-term cash flow pressure, investors chose to take concentrated profits. The key point of market divergence: growth is real, but valuation has already been fully priced in, entering a short-term valuation digestion phase.
❤️ Growth is not over, there is still room for mid-to-long-term recovery
AMD's AI growth is far from exhausted. Nvidia's high-level monopoly brings continuous substitution space, new AI GPUs will accelerate shipments in the second half of the year, and advanced packaging capacity continues to be released. With increased penetration in servers, automotive, and industrial multi-scenarios, the company still has the potential for sustained performance growth.
$AMD $XAMD SPCX
2026.08.05 Market Personal Analysis
Today's Market Overview
US stock SPCX regular close: $125.33, up 9.43% for the day;
After-hours, impacted by capital expenditure exceeding expectations in the earnings report, it quickly dropped, with the after-hours price falling to around $114.84, a decline of about 8.37%.
The on-chain SPCX derivatives on crypto platforms followed the US stock fluctuations, experiencing significant intraday volatility.
Short-term Key Ranges
- Support: $114; strong support at $110
- Resistance: $125; upper resistance at $130
Today's Core Driving Event (Most Important)
Before the Beijing time market open on August 5, SpaceX released its first Q2 earnings report since listing
✅ Positive points:
Revenue of $7.814 billion, a year-over-year surge of 92%, significantly exceeding market expectations; losses continue to narrow, with rapid growth in Starlink and AI computing power business revenues.
⚠️ Core negatives (triggering after-hours plunge)
1. AI segment capital expenditure reached $15.8 billion, raising market concerns about continued heavy spending and a prolonged profit realization cycle;
2. Short-term expectation of a large amount of restricted stock unlocking, causing market worries about increased supply;
3. Market short positions remain high, with extremely intense long-short battles.
Market Characteristics Analysis
1. Highly follows US stock trading hours: limited volatility during daytime crypto hours, with extreme spikes likely at US market open and after-hours;
2. Crypto derivatives often show premium/discount relative to US stock prices, with price gaps that can quickly correct, easily causing losses;
3. Short-term sentiment swings violently: earnings data looks good, but capital expenditure dampens market optimism, establishing a short-term volatile pattern, making sustained one-sided rallies difficult.
Simple Scenario Simulation (Market observation only, not trading advice)
1. Optimistic scenario: bulls absorb negative sentiment, hold $114 support, rebound to challenge $125 resistance; without new capital inflows, rebound sustainability is weak;
2. Pessimistic scenario: market continues to worry about high investment and unlocking pressure, breaks below $114 support, further probing the $110 range.
Keep moving forward steadilyThroughout human history, every kind of "hard currency" truly treated as hard currency requires a process of building faith. In this process, gold has traveled for over two thousand years, the dollar eighty years, and real estate as a financial investment about a hundred years. Bitcoin$BTC has only been around for seventeen years. This isn't about bragging about Bitcoin's power, but about a fact: when an asset's faith builds hundreds of times faster than gold, its investment logic isn't about "chasing highs and selling downs," but about "your position on the faith track." Gold: Consensus Forged in 2600 Years In 600 BC, the Kingdom of Lydia minted the first gold coin in human history. But gold truly became the globally recognized hard currency until the gold standard was established at the end of the 19th century, about 150 years ago. During these thousands of years, gold was more of a "precious metal" than a "currency anchor." It took humanity decades to reach a consensus: gold does not swell out of thin air, does not rot, and does not default, so it can be used to price all other assets. Every gold bar you buy today isn't about the gold itself, but about trusting that the consensus of thousands of years has not been broken. But the problem with gold is that it is dead. It cannot be transferred, cannot be programmed, and cannot be split into the phone to eight decimal places. Its only advantage is that it is "so old it cannot be replaced." The US Dollar: 80 Years of Credit Support In 1944, the Bretton Woods System established the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Eighty years have passed since that day. Over these eighty years, the dollar has gradually evolved from the promise of "$35 per ounce of gold" to a pure dollar8.5 BTC ETH
From the hourly chart perspective, the current market is in a consolidation phase with high-level sideways oscillation, and the overall structure still maintains a bullish pattern. Although the price has pulled back from recent highs, it continues to rely on the midline for support without showing signs of a breakdown, indicating that the lower support remains effective. The channel is currently narrowing and flattening, meaning the market is using time to relieve selling pressure above, accumulating energy for the next directional move. As long as the price can firmly hold the midline support, it is highly likely that the subsequent trend will continue to be oscillating with a bullish bias, potentially challenging previous highs again.
After the MACD lines formed a death cross above the zero line and diverged downward, the momentum bars have released but with limited amplitude, and the fast and slow lines remain in the strong zone above zero without crossing below into the bearish dominance area. This indicates the current correction is a healthy pullback rather than a trend reversal, with bearish momentum gradually weakening. As the price stabilizes near key support, if a volume-increasing bullish candle breaks through short-term moving average resistance, the MACD is expected to form a golden cross above zero again, initiating a new upward rally.
BTC: enter at 63800-63200, target 65300-66000
ETH: enter at 1860-1820, target 1905-1950
The above is an objective market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The market contains uncertainties; please make specific trading decisions based on real-time market conditions and your own risk tolerance, exercising independent and prudent judgment and bearing corresponding risks.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $SNDK has really been at the forefront lately. The financial report hasn't been officially released yet, but the market is already buzzing loudly. The core issues boil down to two things: the new HBF story and how long the storage shortage can last.
First, about HBF, this is SanDisk's bet on the next-generation high-bandwidth flash memory, directly competing with Hynix and Samsung's HBM. According to the current timeline, sample chips will be available in the second half of 2026, and the first inference devices will only be seen in early 2027. In plain terms, it's still in the "pie-in-the-sky" stage, but the market loves this narrative—after all, with such a huge AI computing power gap, who wouldn't want another player to break the monopoly? However, some cold water needs to be poured: the gap between sample chips and mass production for HBF is huge, and whether the financial report can provide more concrete progress is the key to whether the stock price can keep soaring.
Next, the storage shortage is the real, tangible gold right now. AI data centers have bought out enterprise-grade SSDs and HDDs. SanDisk's data center revenue last quarter jumped directly from $440 million to $1.467 billion, a quarter-over-quarter surge of 233%. Even more impressive, the gross margin hit 78%, with Q4 guidance aiming for 80%. Customers are no longer bargaining; they are scrambling to sign long-term contracts and lock in volumes early, even starting to discuss demand for 2027.
But the risks are also clear. SanDisk's stock price has risen more than 30 times in a year, and the valuation is already sky-high. This financial report, the market wants more than just "another blowout performance"; it wants to know if the shortage can last until 2027, if HBF has a more concrete rollout schedule, and if long-term contracts can truly lock in against cyclical downturn risks. If management can't provide longer visibility, even the most impressive numbers might be seen as a "cycle peak" signal. In short, the bet now isn't on how profitable things are currently, but on how long this AI storage supercycle can really last.#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
❤️Overall Performance: High Growth but High Investment, Profit Structure Diverges
SpaceX's Q2 revenue significantly exceeded expectations, nearly doubling year-over-year, with EBITDA improving in tandem and overall operational scale expanding rapidly. The business structure is clearly differentiated: Starlink has become the core cash cow, with tens of millions of paying users providing stable positive cash flow; rocket launches and space AI computing power businesses are still burning cash intensely for expansion. The company’s capital expenditure this quarter was huge, mainly focused on AI infrastructure layout. Although losses narrowed year-over-year, the continued large investments and unclear short-term returns are the biggest points of market divergence currently.
💔 Biggest Short-Term Risk: Major Unlocking Incoming, Huge Selling Pressure
On August 6, the first large-scale unlocking will occur, with the unlocked volume far exceeding the current circulating shares. Early institutional and employee holdings have very low cost bases and strong willingness to cash out. The short-term supply of shares will surge, likely causing stock price volatility and downward pressure.
Key point: Elon Musk’s personal shares are locked until 2027, so there is no risk of concentrated large shareholder sell-off. The impact is purely from market circulation expansion causing sentiment and selling pressure, representing a temporary liquidity negative rather than fundamental deterioration.
❤️ Mid-to-Long-Term Core Logic: Dual Moat Narrative Remains
The long-term growth logic remains solid, with two core scarce and highly prosperous sectors.
1. Starlink Satellite Internet: Government and enterprise orders continue to materialize, overseas penetration is increasing, making it the company’s most stable cash flow foundation;
2. Space AI Computing Power: Meeting the computing rental demands of leading tech companies, it is currently the growth curve most aligned with the AI main theme;
Combined with continuous iteration of Starship technology, the long-term commercial space commercialization potential is ample, with a very high valuation ceiling.
❤️ Market Outlook
Short-term negatives outweigh positives, unlocking selling pressure suppresses the market, prioritize watching and avoid chasing highs, wait for sufficient share turnover.
Mid-term focus: progress in narrowing losses in AI computing business, Starlink user growth and cash flow stability.
Long-term characterization: strong fundamentals, scarce sectors, large short-term volatility; after unlocking digestion, low levels offer very high reward-to-risk layout opportunities.
$XSPCX According to normal logic, with high interest rates, soaring US Treasury yields, geopolitical conflicts, ETF capital outflows, and tight liquidity, these factors in past cycles would have likely caused BTC to crash even harder. But this time, it has never experienced a true panic sell-off.
I don't think this is necessarily the absolute bottom; it’s possible that the price could fall below $60,000 or even a bit further. However, I believe this is more like a mid-to-long-term bottom range rather than a specific bottom price.
The reason is simple: those who really want to sell have mostly sold, while long-term funds, ETFs, and institutional funds from listed companies are continuously absorbing chips. The market's cost center has clearly risen, and BTC's bottom is gradually moving up with institutional entry. Data shows that a single price point of $63,000 has accumulated 1.15 million BTC, which is extremely rare historically.
There’s no need to guess the lowest point; instead, gradually build positions within the bottom range; keep buying as it falls, increase positions during crashes, and extend the time horizon to three to five years. Catch the fish body between the head and tail; the real profit-makers are those who dare to buy bit by bit in the bottom area when others are panicking.Eleven Wall Street giants are sitting on a decentralized on-chain network
Circle announced today that its chain called Arc is set to officially launch its mainnet on September 16. It is currently running on a private mainnet, with over a hundred institutions and ecosystem participants connected.
They also released the list of genesis validators. Just reading the names makes it clear: BlackRock, The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), Galaxy, Global Payments, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Mastercard, Western Union, SBI Group, Standard Chartered Bank, Sumitomo Corporation, Visa.
Eleven names, with Galaxy being half an insider, and the rest all familiar faces from traditional finance. ICE is the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, and DTCC handles nearly all clearing and settlement for U.S. stocks.
Let's clarify what validators do. They are responsible for bookkeeping, confirming transactions, and stamping each block on this chain. Whoever occupies this position has the authority to decide which transfers count and which do not. In the past, this role was open to anonymous nodes and miners—anyone could participate. Now, the seats are taken by the NYSE owner and two card networks.
This is no longer the same decentralization we talked about over a decade ago.
I'm not saying it's bad, but we need to clearly understand what it actually is. Arc is a chain designed for institutional settlement; technically it's a blockchain, but governance is in the hands of these eleven entities. You can roughly think of it as moving SWIFT onto a blockchain and having the original players continue managing the accounts.
The plans are already set. BlackRock intends to deploy its BUIDL fund on Arc. DTCC is advancing integration, planning to support tokenization of assets held under DTC starting in the second half of 2027. In other words, the real underlying U.S. stock custody assets are going on-chain via this route.
On the same day, Circle also released its Q2 financial report. USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year; on-chain transaction volume hit $14.8 trillion, up 151% year-over-year. Total revenue plus reserve income was $701 million, up 7% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA was $143 million, up 8%; net income from continuing operations was $48 million, an increase of $530 million compared to the same period last year. After the report, CRCL shares rose nearly 6% in pre-market trading, reaching $66.97.
There is a contrast worth noting here. Circulation increased by 19%, but revenue only rose 7%. What's causing this gap? Interest rates. The way stablecoin issuers make money is straightforward—users give them dollars, which they invest in short-term U.S. Treasuries to earn interest. When interest rates drop a notch, their income can't keep pace with scale growth. This was the core reason Morgan Stanley cut CRCL's target price from 106 to 38, while TD Cowen set it at 82. The two differ by more than double, with the disagreement centered on how long the interest income can last.
On the licensing front, Circle has succeeded. The OCC finally approved the establishment of the nationwide trust bank Circle National Trust, and the New York State Department of Financial Services also approved Circle New York Trust. Its payment network CPN's annualized transaction volume over the past 30 days reached $14.7 billion, up 76% month-over-month; connected institutions numbered 175, up 29% month-over-month.
For those of us working on-chain, the real signal here is that the capital entry point is changing. Previously, a new chain attracted users by issuing tokens and airdrops, building TVL first. Arc, which invited BlackRock and DTCC to the table on day one, is taking the opposite approach—bringing in institutional money first, with retail investors coming later.
So going forward, when looking at the RWA and stablecoin sectors, the evaluation criteria need to change. Don't just focus on how much TVL has grown—that number is too easy to manipulate. Look at how many licensed institutions are connected and how much of the settlement volume represents real business.
In the short term, this has little to do with token prices; Arc's launch won't add a penny to anyone's position. In the long run, it marks the turning point where stablecoins evolve from a payment tool into a settlement foundation. Whoever stakes a claim on this path first will be the one collecting tolls later.
A straightforward question: with Wall Street fully seated on this chain, do you still consider it crypto? #CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 The US SOL spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1,004,400 yesterday (August 4, Eastern Time), all coming from Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL).
Currently, MSOL's total historical net inflow is $20,861,800; the total net asset value of the SOL spot ETF is $875 million, with a net asset ratio of 2.03%, and the cumulative historical net inflow has reached $1.148 billion. The single-day inflow volume is not exaggerated, but the signal is very clear: institutional channels are still continuously accumulating, not just emotional pulses.
My view is bullish but I won't chase the highs. The SOL ETF narrative has shifted from "whether it can be approved" to "whether there is sustained money inflow after approval." MSOL's sole contribution to net inflow indicates that traditional asset management channels have truly started working. In the short term, what should be watched more closely is whether the inflows are continuous and whether the overall market can hold steady.
Looking at the market anchor points, BTC current price is 64080, pivot point (PP) 63959.53, resistance 1 (R1) 64628.87, support 1 (S1) 63406.17; ETH current price 1868.57, PP 1866.04. BTC must first hold above the PP for altcoin risk appetite to be sustained; if it falls below S1, even with ETF inflows, SOL is likely to be dragged down by the overall market.
Conclusion: SOL's mid-term funding outlook is constructive, but short-term movement is more linked to the overall market. Waiting for confirmation of continuous inflows is more meaningful than single-day data.
Pivot points BTC PP 63959.53 / R1 64628.87 / S1 63406.17 | ETH PP 1866.04
$SOL #SOL $BTC #BTC $ETH #ETH## Clarity Act Last 48 Hours: Mysterious Group Launches Anti-Crypto Ads
As the Senate summer recess countdown enters its final 48 hours, the battle over the Clarity Act has reached a fever pitch. CoinDesk revealed that a mysterious group called "Crypto Watchdog" is intensively running anti-crypto ads in Washington, with its funding sources refusing to be disclosed. The group is placing a large amount of warning content on TV, digital ads, and around Capitol Hill, claiming the Clarity Act will "protect crypto crime."
The Blockchain Association has launched a counterattack, demanding disclosure of the group's funding sources. Industry observers note that this "dark money" offensive appearing in the final legislative stages often indicates opposition forces are resorting to unconventional means to block the bill's passage.
## Polymarket Odds Reveal Harsh Reality: From 82% to 27%
The probability of the Clarity Act passing on Polymarket has experienced a rollercoaster ride: it was as high as 82% in February but has since dropped to the current 27%. The Senate has recently prioritized Russian sanctions and federal personnel nominations, pushing the crypto bill off the agenda.
However, optimistic signals remain. CCN reports that Senators Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis are finalizing a bipartisan ethics compromise to gain more Democratic support. Industry mobilization has also peaked—over 1 million support emails and calls have flooded Capitol Hill, setting a record in crypto industry lobbying history.
## If the Bill Stalls: Who Gets Hurt the Most?
If the Clarity Act fails to advance this week, the impact will show clear structural differentiation:
**Biggest Winners**: The regulatory uncertainty maintaining the status quo actually serves as a moat for compliance-leading top exchanges like Coinbase, while smaller competitors will find it harder to obtain compliance licenses.
**Most Hurt**: Tom Lee's Bitmine (BMNR) will be hit first. Its core logic behind the $11.3 billion ETH holdings is that ETH will gain clear regulatory status after the Clarity Act passes. If the bill is delayed, the "securities" controversy around ETH will continue, and Bitmine's holdings will face a longer period of policy risk discounting. The ETH/BTC rate has already dropped to 0.028, and a stalled bill could further depress ETH's performance.
**Watchers**: Strategy's 426,000 BTC holdings are not directly affected by the Clarity Act, but the interest pressure in a low-volatility environment continues to accumulate, and the bill's uncertain outlook makes it harder to decide on increasing holdings.
## Summary
BTC is consolidating near $64K, with the market focusing all attention on the legislative battle in Washington. The 48-hour window for the Clarity Act is the most important policy node for the crypto industry in 2026. If the bill breaks through, $65K-$70K is expected; if it stalls, short-term sentiment shocks may test the $62K support. Closely watch the Senate agenda and the follow-up moves of the mysterious "Crypto Watchdog." South Korea's leveraged ETF trading volume has plummeted by 90%, retail investor enthusiasm has cooled, and the market has entered a period of calm
A notable change has recently appeared in the South Korean market:
The once most actively traded leveraged ETFs have seen a sharp decline in trading volume, with some popular products dropping about 90% from their peak, while market volatility has also noticeably narrowed.
On the surface, this change indicates a decline in trading enthusiasm in the South Korean stock market, but it reflects a larger trend:
Capital is shifting from "chasing volatility" to "waiting for certainty."
This shift in sentiment is also impacting global risk assets, including the crypto market.
In recent years, South Korean retail investors have been a very active force in global markets.
Especially during the AI and semiconductor rallies, Korean investors heavily participated in leveraged ETF trading.
The reason is simple:
In a rising market, leveraged products can amplify returns.
When market sentiment is high, capital more easily concentrates in high-volatility assets.
But leveraged trading has a characteristic:
It amplifies profits and also amplifies hesitation.
When the upward trend slows and trading volume declines, it indicates market participants are beginning to reduce risk exposure.
The cooling of South Korea's leveraged ETFs actually signals a change in market trading logic.
Previously, investors focused more on:
Which sector is rising fastest.
Which asset has the greatest elasticity.
Where short-term opportunities lie.
But now capital is refocusing on:
Corporate earnings.
Cash flow.
Long-term growth.
This is also a necessary stage in the market maturation process.
This change has some similarities with the current crypto market.
In the past cycle, market hotspots kept shifting.
Bitcoin ETFs drove institutional capital inflows.
Meme coins attracted large amounts of short-term funds.
The Solana ecosystem grew rapidly.
RWA and stablecoins became new narrative directions.
A lot of capital chased high-growth opportunities.
But as the market enters a consolidation phase, investors begin to reselect assets.
Currently, BTC price is operating in the mid-to-late $60,000 range.
The Bitcoin market structure has changed.
Previously, BTC was more influenced by retail sentiment, but now ETF capital, institutional allocation, and macro liquidity have become more important variables.
Market focus is shifting from:
"How much higher can Bitcoin go"
to:
"Will capital continue to flow in."
If global risk appetite remains stable, BTC remains an important direction for capital allocation.
ETH is currently maintaining a range above $1800.
Compared to BTC, ETH faces more value realization issues.
The market is no longer satisfied with ecosystem scale growth but focuses on:
Whether stablecoins continue to expand.
Whether RWA brings real demand.
Whether on-chain activity can generate revenue.
The core of ETH's future competition is not just technical advantage but whether economic value can be solidified.
SOL represents a high-volatility asset.
Over the past year, Solana attracted a lot of capital through low fees, high transaction activity, and the Meme ecosystem.
But the decline in South Korea's leveraged ETF trading volume also reminds the market:
Assets driven by sentiment rely most on the capital environment.
When the market is hot, capital chases elasticity.
When the market cools, capital prioritizes risk reduction.
The decline in South Korea's leveraged ETF trading volume essentially reflects that the global market is entering a new phase.
Capital no longer chases gains unconditionally.
Investors are demanding more validation.
For the stock market, earnings realization is needed.
For the crypto market, real users and real demand are needed.
The future market will not lack hotspots.
But assets that can continuously attract capital will become fewer.
True opportunities do not necessarily belong to the fastest-rising assets.
They belong to those that can endure cycles and continuously create value. $ETH $SPCX SpaceX's first financial report is out: revenue of $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, expected only $6.9 billion, greatly exceeding expectations; net loss of $541 million (last year $1.008 billion), loss narrowed by 46%.
But why did it drop after hours? Two major issues:
First, expenses exploded, with continued high investment in the next two quarters, profits will be slow to appear, the market fears cash flow burn and a prolonged profit realization cycle.
Second, the first unlock on August 6 — currently only about 600 million shares are circulating, with over 900 million shares to be unlocked, meaning the market will face more than double the potential selling pressure in the coming months, at a trillion-level scale, which is hard to absorb.
Early investors have very low costs, not everyone has diamond hands, most unlocked shares will sooner or later flow into the market. Only after this wave of selling pressure is fully absorbed will $SPCX have a real market.
I am optimistic about Musk's reform and $SPCX, but now is not the time; wait until the unlock washout is complete before looking for an entry point.