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Dow Jones breaks 54,000 for the first time, S&P surpasses 7700 — How does this US stock rally relate to your positions? Old Mo breaks it down clearly for you
Brothers, Wall Street set a new milestone last night.
At the close on August 4, the S&P 500 rose 136.02 points (1.79%) to 7736.52, surpassing 7700 for the first time in history. The Dow Jones rose 907 points (1.71%) to 54,085.88, breaking 54,000 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq rose 671 points (2.59%) to 26,584.99. The total market capitalization of S&P component stocks exceeded $70 trillion for the first time.
Year-to-date, the S&P has gained 13%, the Dow 12.5%, and the Nasdaq over 14%.
Five simultaneous triggers, none can be missing.
First, US and Iran are set to negotiate peace. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNBC before the market opened on Tuesday that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as that day or Wednesday. Brent crude plunged 6% to $78.68, WTI dropped 6.47% to $75.14. Oil price collapse cools inflation expectations, US Treasury yields fall, and risk assets take off across the board.
Iran is still playing coy, saying "no direct talks with the US," but the market has already believed it.
Second, earnings season is very strong. As of July 31, 86% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings beat expectations. Excluding one-time factors from Google and Amazon, Q2 earnings grew 27% year-over-year.
Third, Palantir and Caterpillar directly ignited sentiment. Palantir’s Q2 revenue was $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year, surging 29.45% after hours. Caterpillar’s quarterly revenue exceeded $20 billion for the first time, up 24% year-over-year. One represents AI software, the other physical infrastructure; both exploding simultaneously convinced the market that "AI is not a bubble."
Fourth, tech stocks are rallying across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 6.55% in one day, after falling 20.6% in July. SanDisk and Intel rose over 10%, Marvell Technology and Coherent gained over 12%. Bespoke noted that the Nasdaq has risen for four consecutive days with daily gains over 1%, historically indicating real money flowing back in.
Fifth, volatility is at multi-year lows. The VIX fear index remains low, US Treasury yields have fallen, and overall market risk appetite is fully open.
But Old Mo has a few reminders for you.
First, gains are concentrated. Of the S&P’s 13% gain this year, the seven giants contributed only 5%, indicating capital is spreading to broader sectors — healthcare, industrials, and financials are all rising. This is a healthy sign but also means if the leaders falter, the index may not hold.
Second, valuations are not cheap. The S&P’s forward P/E ratio is above the long-term average. Piper Sandler’s chief technical analyst bluntly said, "This recovery can be called ‘good,’ but it’s not yet ‘excellent.’"
Third, August to October are historically the weakest three months for the S&P. There’s no clear historical answer on what happens after new highs. Some strategists see 8100 by year-end, others think the peak may be near.
For BTC and ETH, this has little direct short-term impact.
S&P new highs, oil price collapse, and rising risk appetite — theoretically, BTC should rise accordingly. But in reality? BTC is still oscillating between 63,000-64,000, ETH grinding between 1850-1900. US stocks rise on "improving corporate earnings," BTC rises on "liquidity easing expectations." The two trends don’t fully overlap.
But as long as US stocks keep hitting new highs, VIX stays low, and risk appetite doesn’t collapse, BTC won’t lack support.
Old Mo has a few words on tonight’s trading.
BTC’s 64,000-64,500 range remains a key barrier; if it can’t break through, expect continued consolidation. Support lies at 62,500-62,800. Don’t bet heavily before the direction is clear. Wait for a volume breakout above 64,500 to chase on the right side, or wait for a pullback to 62,500 to stabilize before buying. Set stop losses properly.
Did you catch the US stock new highs? Let’s talk in the comments.
If you think Old Mo’s breakdown is clear, please like and follow. I’ll alert you first when key levels arrive. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 Ethereum (ETH) Real-Time Price Analysis (August 6, 2026)
1. Real-Time Price Overview
As of August 6, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) quotes vary slightly across platforms. CNBC shows ETH/USD at $1,879.67, up 0.35% in 24 hours. CoinGlass shows ETH at $1,878.22, down 2.63% in 24 hours. The price fluctuated between $1,866.13 and $1,887.40 during the day.
The 24-hour spot trading volume is about $1.96 billion, with contract volume around $39.08 billion—nearly 20 times the spot volume—indicating extremely high market leverage participation. The total ETH contract liquidations across the network are about $58.9 million. Current market capitalization is approximately $226.7 billion, with a circulating supply of about 120.68 million ETH. The year-to-date decline is about 36.75%, with a retracement of about 62% from the 52-week high of $4,954.52.
2. Intraday Price Movement Review
ETH showed a low-volume oscillation pattern today. During the Asian session, it rose slightly to around $1,887, but bulls failed to break through further, then it retraced to consolidate near $1,878.
On a larger timeframe, since late July, ETH has been fluctuating repeatedly between $1,850 and $1,950—daily candles tangled around the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, with Bollinger Bands continuously narrowing, a classic precursor to a major breakout. Ethereum is approaching its 2026 low; although it stabilized somewhat after breaking the trendline in mid-July, it has yet to form a convincing breakout.
3. Market Drivers
📈 Continuous ETF Capital Inflows (Core Support)
On August 6, the total net inflow into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was about $98 million, marking the second consecutive day of net inflows. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA had a single-day net inflow of about $110 million, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $869 million; Fidelity's FETH net inflow was about $22 million. The total net asset value of Ethereum ETFs reached $7.06 billion, accounting for 2.36% of Ethereum's total market cap.
However, capital flows remain divergent—Grayscale's ETHE saw an outflow of nearly $39 million that day, with a historical cumulative outflow of $2.2 billion; meanwhile, its newly launched ETF "ETH" had an inflow of $4.7 million. Overall, the sustained return of ETF funds is the most important price support for ETH currently.
🔒 Staking Hits All-Time High, Supply Continues to Tighten
Ethereum staking reached a record high on August 5. Exchange ETH reserves have dropped from about 16.8 million to 15.1 million ETH, and the staking rate has risen from under 30% to 33.9%. Currently, only 6.6 ETH are in the validator exit queue, while over 2.4 million ETH are waiting to be newly staked.
Whale 0x2e80 has withdrawn a total of 112,000 ETH ($208 million) from Gemini over the past three weeks and staked all of it. Bitmine has staked 150,120 ETH, accounting for over 87% of its financial holdings.
🐳 Intense Whale Long-Short Battles
On the bullish side, whale address 0x2684 has accumulated 79,216 ETH (about $141 million) since June 30, at an average price of $1,777.
On the bearish side, whale pension-usdt.eth increased its short position by 10,000 ETH (about $16.8 million) amid the market rebound, bringing total shorts to 60,000 ETH (about $101 million). This trader had previously achieved 22 consecutive wins.
⚠️ Controversial EIP Proposal Sparks Market Concerns
An Ethereum researcher submitted a new proposal—once 50% of ETH supply is staked, staking rewards will be burned down to zero. Currently, ETH is priced at $1,868.72, between the EMA50 resistance at $1,876.43 and EMA200 support at $1,831.27. Aave's founder warned that this proposal could kill Ethereum's lending and yield scenarios, undermining ETH's viability as an asset.
4. Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Current pattern: ETH is trading in a narrow range between $1,850 and $1,900, with Bollinger Bands extremely tight and no clear bullish or bearish direction. MACD shows a bullish golden cross, RSI is neutral around 48-54. Price remains between EMA50 resistance at $1,876-$1,878 and EMA200 support at $1,831.
Key Resistances:
· $1,887-$1,890: Bollinger Band upper band coinciding with recent highs
· $1,900: Short-term bull-bear dividing line; a stable break opens upside space
· $1,970-$2,000: Target after breakout
· $2,100: Strong medium-term resistance
Key Supports:
· $1,866-$1,870: Intraday low area, first short-term support
· $1,842-$1,850: Near Bollinger Band lower band
· $1,831-$1,840: EMA200 long-term support, trend lifeline
· $1,780-$1,800: Downside target if $1,831 breaks
5. Summary
Ethereum is currently in a narrow oscillation range of $1,850-$1,900, with Bollinger Bands extremely tight, signaling an imminent major breakout.
$1,900 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line—if volume breaks out and holds above $1,970-$2,000, a rebound toward $2,100 is likely; if resistance persists and $1,831 (EMA200) breaks down, a faster retracement to $1,780-$1,800 or lower may occur.
The core conflict lies between fundamental positives such as continuous ETF capital inflows ($98 million net inflow on August 6), record-high staking, and ongoing whale accumulation, versus suppressive factors like Grayscale ETHE outflows, uncertainty from the controversial EIP proposal, and the weakening ETH/BTC exchange rate.
Currently, ETH lacks an independent narrative driver; its overall movement still mainly follows BTC but with greater elasticity. Around August 10, the market may face a directional choice. Close attention is needed on ETF capital flows, USDT liquidity changes, and developments regarding the controversial EIP proposal.
$ETH Brothers, don't be fooled by BTC still pretending to be dead at 64,000; small caps have collectively turned green at 11:4 — but I advise you not to rush to grab this red envelope.
First, set the tone: in this hour, breadth went from yesterday's 7 up 8 down straight to 11 up 4 down, marking the first "broad-based rally sprout" in this bear market. BTC +1.14%, ETH +1.22% dual-core turned green, even marginal coins like ZEC and HEI have popped up.
But don't get carried away; the real proof is in the capital flow: volume didn't rise but dropped even more sharply — down 52.8%, worse than the previous -41.9%; OI frozen at 109,200 BTC remains unchanged, funding +0.0025% neutral, FG 27 still stuck in fear. Price is rising, money isn't coming in — this is a textbook volume-price divergence.
Back to crypto positioning: breadth warming indicates marginal risk appetite recovery, but volume-price divergence tells you — this recovery is "sentiment," not "capital." Real action requires OI expansion and volume normalization, neither of which has happened yet.
Here's something actionable — the "three tests of volume-price divergence" framework: ① Breadth >10 and up/down ratio >2:1 = broad rally sprout (currently 11:4 meets this); ② Volume must simultaneously normalize and OI expand to confirm capital (currently volume -52.8%, OI frozen = no confirmation); ③ Check if the leaders are old solo runners or new faces spreading (GRVT solo runner +18% still present, but new faces like ZEC/HEI/ETH following = diffusion but solo runner not retreating). Only test ① passed, don't treat this as a reversal signal.
The real review slapped me in the face: yesterday at 20:00 I went long on GRVT, from a floating profit of +2.38% turned green to -3.46% (solo runner momentum also fading); the scripted XSPCX short was worse, stopped out at 00:30 with a real loss of -4.97%. The breadth warming red envelope, neither of us caught a single slap, instead got slapped twice.
Heartbreaking conclusion: the worst is not that it doesn't rise, but that it rises and you catch a sentiment red envelope without volume following. In this scenario, breadth looks good but volume diverges — it's a "locals don't leave" probe, not a reversal.
Friends, do you think this 11:4 is a true reversal start or a bull trap? Let's discuss in the comments; if I'm wrong, I'll serve as a contrarian indicator. Tomorrow, watch if volume can normalize; if not, just stay a spectator.
Crypto assets are high risk; this article does not constitute investment advice and is purely personal opinion.
$BTC $ETH $GRVT #BreadthRecovery #VolumePriceDivergence #MarketBreadth #RiskControlStrategy #BeginnerEducation #MarketAnalysis #OKXPlanet$UNI 📒 UNI｜A Successful Long Trade Review
For this trade, I didn’t just jump in after seeing positive news.
A few days ago, after coming across good news about UNI, I added it to my watchlist but didn’t rush to open a position. Instead, I kept observing its price movement.
I noticed a very clear phenomenon:
Under the same market conditions, UNI is stronger than BTC and ETH.
Why do I judge this way?
📈 Weekly chart:
The price has climbed back above the EMA20 and tested the moving average without breaking below it, indicating a large-scale shift back to strength.
📈 Daily chart:
After breaking above the EMA20 for the first time in mid-July, the price has mostly stayed above the moving average.
My target at the time was 4.572, so during the recent pullback, I was waiting for a buying opportunity rather than chasing the price higher.
📍 Key level:
The price pulled back to near the EMA20 for three consecutive days, showing the uptrend was intact and giving me a low-risk entry opportunity.
First entry
I tried to go long near 3.86.
Result: I was stopped out.
Upon review, the problem wasn’t the direction but that the stop loss was set too tight.
Also, I wasn’t confident enough in my trading system at the time and exited early when the price fluctuated slightly.
Second entry
After the first stop loss, I didn’t emotionally chase the trade or abandon my original judgment.
Instead, I returned to my trading system.
⏱ 15-minute chart:
I waited for the price to break out and then pull back to confirm support before re-entering.
Second entry price: 3.89.
The price rose to around 4.10, where I took profit on half my position and kept the rest, trailing the stop loss to let profits run.
The biggest takeaway from this trade
I used to prefer trading based on news.
Now, I treat news as a reason to pay attention, not a reason to enter a trade.
What really got me into the trade was:
✅ Strong trend on the higher timeframe;
✅ Pullback to key support;
✅ Breakout confirmation on the lower timeframe.
News determines attention; structure determines trading.
So far, UNI remains a relatively strong asset. As long as the trend isn’t broken, I will continue managing my position according to the trading plan.
This is just a personal trading record and does not constitute any investment advice.
⟡ Probability believer
⟡ Trade with the trend
⟡ Know when to stop trading
⟡ Non-attachment trading"S&P Hits Another Record High: Liquidating to Wait for a Pullback May Be the Costliest Decision in August"
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Q3 · Issue 93
Aspirin · A Data Scientist’s Perspective on Cyclical Analysis
The S&P 500 closed last night at 7,736.52 points, up 1.8%, hitting another all-time high; the year-to-date gain is about 13%. I did not chase the rally last night, nor did I liquidate my core index positions. The risk of a pullback in the second half of the year remains, but a properly sized pullback could still settle above today’s level.
BTC is still hovering around 64.4K. I’m reserving new funds for the S&P’s pullback range, leaving only two BTC contract alerts at 63.5K and 69.2K. Here’s a calculation many haven’t seriously considered.
1. A 10% drop doesn’t necessarily give you a lower buying point
Assuming the S&P rises 12% from 7,736.52 points and then pulls back 10%: 7,736.52 × 1.12 × 0.90 = 7,798.41. The pullback sounds large, but the level is still 0.8% higher than today. Even if it rises 8% and then falls 10%, the index only returns to about 7,520 points, a discount of just 2.8%.
"Waiting for a 10% pullback" is not a complete strategy. Those liquidating to wait must correctly guess the top, the timing of the pullback, and the re-entry point. Near all-time highs, there is little trapped supply, trend capital remains, and the market can easily clear out premature shorts before completing the expected correction.
2. In three midterm election years, risks heat up in late summer
In the past three U.S. midterm years, the S&P’s second-half rhythm was indeed similar: in 2014, it peaked around September 19, pulled back about 10%, and bottomed in mid-October; in 2018, weakness began around September 21, with a roughly 20% correction lasting until December; in 2022, the local high came earlier on August 16, with the low still waiting until mid-October.
The sample size is only three, and 2022 was still a bear market, so this year shouldn’t be seen as a replay. History provides a risk window: earliest mid-August, more commonly September; after the correction starts, the low may take another month or two.
The next Fed meeting is September 15–16, right in the risk window. Rate hikes raise valuation discount rates; if no hike but inflation remains sticky, long-term Treasury yields may also rise. Over the next six weeks, I’m watching 10-year Treasury yields and S&P market breadth. When the bond market continues to weaken and gains are limited to a few large-cap stocks, risk shifts from calendar-based to price-based.
3. If U.S. stocks enter a second round of correction, BTC could suffer greatly
In 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC’s cycle lows appeared during the stock market’s second half correction. Rising Treasury yields depress stock valuations, capital cuts high-beta exposure, and BTC’s decline is amplified by liquidity effects.
2018 is especially worth remembering. The S&P’s final low was only about 7%–8% below the early-year correction, but BTC expanded the corresponding support drop by about 48%. Today’s BTC volatility is lower than then, so the drop may not replicate; but the stock market doesn’t need to crash to make BTC test 60K again.
Only after the S&P loses its trend, long-term yields rise, and BTC breaks its own support simultaneously does short selling have favorable odds. So far, only "S&P hitting new highs" has occurred, which is not enough.
I keep only two BTC alerts. If the daily closes above 69.2K and holds the 68.6K–69.0K support on pullback, I follow with one-third of planned position size, with a stop at 66.9K; if the daily breaks 63.5K and fails to rebound between 63.7K–64.0K, I hedge with one-quarter of planned position size, stop at 65.2K, targeting 61K and 58.2K. Neither condition has occurred, so the contract account remains empty.
I will place the S&P pullback range, long-term Treasuries, and the two BTC alerts on the same watchlist and update triggers in the Aspirin · Cycle Lab group chat. Friends interested in data review, conditional trading, and risk management are welcome to join. The group does not shout directions based on emotions, only records how prices validate judgments.
I’m not chasing new highs now, nor paying shorting costs prematurely for a pullback that hasn’t started. Positions stay in the trend, cash waits for price.
Data notes: S&P 500 closing data as of August 4, 2026; historical pullback dates and magnitudes based on S&P 500 daily data; Fed meeting dates from the official FOMC calendar; OKX product rules from the unified tokenized stock spot official description. BTC real-time prices and condition ranges as of August 5, 2026. This is personal research and conditional trading plan, not investment advice.
#XSPY #SPX #BTC #USStocks #Bitcoin #OKX #RiskManagement #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 The S&P 500 closed above 7700 points for the first time in history (closed at 7736, intraday high nearly 7800).
But this breakthrough isn’t about blindly buying "U.S. stocks"; it’s about betting on the next decade’s industrial cycle.
The era of low interest rates is over. Now, capital only values one type of company: those that truly improve industrial efficiency. AI (computing power/data centers/semiconductors) is the biggest carrier, with global AI capital expenditure heading toward $1 trillion next year. What people are buying isn’t current profits, but the residual growth value for the coming years. $SPX
However, above 7700 points, the biggest risk isn’t a lack of stories, but stories being overhyped.
Currently, the top ten giants account for over 40% of the S&P’s market cap, with valuations packed full of "AI monetization" expectations.
The upcoming test is very real:
1️⃣ Can the massive capital expenditures (Capex) turn into profits?
2️⃣ Can profit growth sustain the current valuations?
If growth slows even slightly, even excellent companies will have to be revalued. $QQQ
This is exactly the same shift happening in the crypto market:
Previously, crypto trading relied on "new narratives," but now institutional entry focuses only on "real value."
🔸 $BTC BTC: transitioning from a trading asset to a portfolio asset, as seen in ETF net inflows and long-term holding demand.
🔸 $ETH: not lacking users, but lacking the transformation of RWA, stablecoins, and L2 prosperity into scarcity of ETH itself.
🔸 $SOL: not lacking transaction volume, but lacking user retention and ecosystem revenue generation.
In short: the market used to seek stories; now the market validates them. After any new high, be prepared for a pullback to build momentum.
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
Tonight's focus on SanDisk's earnings report isn't on how much it earned this quarter, but whether the market still believes in the AI storage cycle.
Recently, the AI hardware sector has clearly pulled back. Microsoft and Amazon's earnings prove AI capital spending hasn't stopped, yet storage stocks remain highly volatile. The market's current concern is how long NAND prices and high profit margins can be sustained.
Tonight, I’m mainly watching four points:
① Q1 FY2027 guidance
This is more important than this quarter's EPS. Whether enterprise SSD demand, next quarter's revenue, and gross margin can continue to be raised will determine the market's judgment on the subsequent cycle.
② NAND prices
If supply and demand remain tight and inventory stays healthy, the entire storage sector will benefit; if management mentions price pressure, the market will quickly trade the cycle peak.
③ Enterprise SSD orders
Cloud providers are still increasing AI investments, but whether this capital spending continues to translate into data center storage orders is key.
④ Gross margin
If revenue growth is insufficient, the market also needs to confirm whether SanDisk's profitability has started to weaken.
If guidance is raised and demand continues to exceed supply, sentiment for SanDisk and the AI storage sector is likely to keep improving.
If guidance is conservative or prices or gross margins weaken, this earnings report could become a turning point for the market to reassess the storage cycle.
So what I most want to hear tonight is not a pretty EPS, but management confirming:
Storage demand driven by AI data centers still exceeds current supply.
This earnings report will decide not just SanDisk's one-night rise or fall, but how far the AI storage theme can go.
$SNDK Why Aren’t BTC andETH Breaking Out Despite Bullish News?
The crypto market continues to see positive headlines:
Expectation of accommodative central bank policy
Steady spot ETF inflows and institutional participation
Expanding corporate adoption and treasury allocations
Regulatory frameworks becoming clearer globally
Yet, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain range-bound, struggling to ignite sustained upward momentum.
Here are four main reasons behind the current market divergence:
Positive Expectations Are Already Priced In Markets forward-price expected news long before headlines hit the mainstream. When anticipated events materialise without unexpected surprises, market participants often take profits rather than aggressively buying resistance.
Strategic Liquidity Allocation Capital is not leaving the market, but it is moving with higher discipline. Institutional and retail liquidity is concentrating into specific high-conviction plays and ecosystem narratives rather than lifting the total market cap uniformly.
Subdued Volatility and Trading Volumes Overall spot trading volume remains below previous bull-market peak cycles. In a lower-volume environment, momentum breakouts lack the sustained buying pressure required to clear heavy orderbook resistance, leading to frequent range sweeps.
Macro Uncertainty and Risk Management Even with lower inflation and policy adjustments, macro funds remain prudent. Institutional desks require clear economic confirmation before deploying capital aggressively into risk assets.
What Lies Ahead?
Major market expansions rarely start on obvious headlines. Range-bound consolidation and low-volatility compression are historically the phases where supply gets absorbed and long-term positioning occurs.
A decisive break out of this range will likely depend on expanding global liquidity, accelerating net ETF inflows, or a clear shift in broader macroeconomic conditions.
#Ethereum11Years #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates $BTC $BTC Earnings night: what truly determines SanDisk's stock price might not be the profits, but the “next two sentences.” $SNDK
Over the past month, the market has already played out a full script for SanDisk (SNDK): AI industry chain high valuation → capital realization → sector-wide valuation cuts → followed by a recovery driven by continued AI capital expenditure expansion from Microsoft and others. Now, everyone's attention is focused on this earnings report.
Market consensus expectations are not low.
Wall Street expects SanDisk's revenue this quarter to grow about 4 times year-over-year, with EPS also showing explosive growth. This means the market has already priced in that the company is profitable—and making a lot of money.
Therefore, what truly deserves attention in this earnings report is not "whether it made money," but the following questions:
First, is AI demand still accelerating?
In the past year, AI servers have driven rapid growth in enterprise SSD and NAND Flash demand.
If management continues to emphasize:
* Hyperscaler orders are still growing;
* AI customer demand has not slowed;
* Long-term agreements (LTA) continue to increase;
then it indicates this AI storage cycle is not over yet.
But if statements start to appear like:
"Customer inventory is normalizing"
"Demand growth is slowing"
"The next few quarters will be more balanced"
Even if profits hit new highs, the market might preemptively price in a cycle turning point.
Second, can prices still rise?
In the semiconductor industry, real profits have never come from volume, but from price.
The NAND industry's profit surge over the past year largely came from pricing power after supply contraction.
If the earnings report continues to show ASP (average selling price) is still rising, it means suppliers still firmly hold bargaining power.
If prices start to peak, even with volume growth, it implies profit margins may enter a decline cycle.
Capital is most sensitive to this change.
Third, is the market trading reality or the future?
Many believe:
Good earnings = stock price rise.
But the capital market often doesn't work that way.
If a company delivers a perfect 100 score but the market expects 120, the stock price may still fall.
Conversely, if the market is extremely pessimistic, just one sentence from management like "orders will continue to grow in the second half" can trigger a Davis double play in the stock price.
So, earnings reports are never exams, but expectation management.
My own view:
The importance of this earnings report is not just about deciding SanDisk's next move.
It is more like a stress test for the entire AI storage industry chain.
If SanDisk continues to confirm no changes in AI demand, pricing power, and long-term orders, the market will regain confidence that:
This is not a short-cycle rally, but AI infrastructure investment is still being realized.
But if management starts signaling any slowdown in prices, demand, or customer capital expenditure, capital will likely continue to reduce valuations across the AI storage sector.
In trading, I increasingly believe one thing:
What truly drives trends is not earnings numbers, but capital's repricing of future cash flows.
Numbers belong to the past; expectations belong to the future.
And the market always trades the future first. MU has recently made me more and more certain of one thing:
The market no longer treats it as a storage stock but trades it as an AI stock.
Why do I say this?
Because what now affects MU's stock price is no longer a 2% rise in DRAM or a 3% drop in NAND.
Instead, it's:
Whether companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are willing to keep spending money next quarter.
In the past, the storage industry was a typical cyclical stock.
When the market is good, prices rise.
Everyone expands production together.
Eventually, supply exceeds demand, and profits fall again.
So the market has never been willing to give storage companies high valuations.
But AI has changed part of this logic.
Now, an AI server demands much more HBM, DDR5, and enterprise SSDs than a traditional server.
What truly drives MU's profit growth is no longer just PC and phone upgrades.
It's global data centers.
Here's the issue.
AI demand is real.
Valuations are also genuinely high.
Microsoft and Amazon have recently continued to increase capital expenditures, indicating that AI infrastructure construction hasn't hit the brakes yet.
This is also why MU surged sharply a few days ago, with funds flowing back into the storage sector.
But then the stock price quickly fell back.
Because the market started worrying about another thing:
If all manufacturers expand production, will today's supply shortage turn into oversupply two years from now?
The biggest enemy of the storage industry has never been demand.
It's supply.
Samsung is expanding.
SK Hynix is expanding.
Micron itself is expanding.
As long as industry profits are high enough, someone will continue to invest in production.
So now when I look at MU, I don't just look at next quarter's profits.
I'm more concerned about:
Whether management has mentioned the duration of HBM orders;
Whether major customers have locked in future capacity in advance;
Whether AI capital expenditures have started to slow down.
Because what really determines MU's height is not how much it earns this quarter.
It's whether the market believes:
AI data center construction can continue for another three to five years.
If the answer is yes.
MU may still be in the middle of the cycle.
If the answer is no.
Then the high valuation it has today could become its biggest pressure in the future.
So what’s most worth watching for MU is not the candlestick chart.
But whether global AI investment has started to cool down.
DYOR. $MU The headlines are bullish… so why aren't $BTC and $ETH breaking out?
Crypto has plenty of positive catalysts:
• Rate-cut expectations continue to improve.
• Spot ETF demand remains resilient.
• Institutional adoption is growing.
• Regulatory clarity is slowly getting better.
Even so, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain stuck in a range. Here's why:
1. The market already priced it in.
Markets move on expectations, not just news. Much of the bullish sentiment was reflected in prices before the headlines arrived, leading to profit-taking instead of aggressive buying.
2. Capital is becoming more selective.
Money isn't leaving crypto—it's rotating. Investors are focusing on the strongest projects and narratives rather than buying the entire market.
3. Liquidity is still relatively thin.
Compared with previous bull cycles, trading volume remains subdued. Lower liquidity can make rallies less convincing and increases the risk of sudden pullbacks.
4. Institutions are waiting for confirmation.
While inflation is easing and rate-cut expectations are improving, many large investors still want stronger macroeconomic confirmation before adding significant exposure.
What could spark the next breakout?
A sustained surge in ETF inflows, improving global liquidity, or a decisive shift in central bank policy could provide the momentum needed to push the market out of its current range.
Sideways markets often test patience, but they've historically been the periods where long-term positions are built. The biggest rallies usually begin when the majority least expect them.
#SpaceXBeatEstimates #SandiskEarningsWatch #SP500Hits7700 #AMD earnings exceeded expectations, is growth already priced in?
I need to rethink the SanDisk short position I placed at 1331.77 tonight—because AMD replayed the "old script" after hours.
AMD's quarter isn't actually bad: revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-over-year, adjusted EPS 1.66, data center revenue $6.7 billion (doubling YoY at 107%, accounting for 58% of revenue), gross margin 56%, and Q3 guidance of $13 billion also beats consensus of $12.5 billion. But the stock dropped 8% after hours.
Why? The stock has risen too much this year, the valuation already prepaid the "AI catching up to Nvidia" story, Q3 guidance only maintains the slope without stepping up, Capex soared to three times the expected amount, and free cash flow took a hit. The market wants "beats within beats," and if it doesn't get that, it sells the news.
This is a real pressure on SanDisk. SNDK rose from 998 to 1468, and expectations for the storage segment have already peaked. AMD's drop is a warning signal: as long as earnings just "meet" rather than "explode," profit-taking will be fierce.
So how to handle the short at 1331.77: set a stop loss firmly above 1550, do not add to the position before earnings to bet on direction; options implied volatility shows a 15%-21% swing range, stop loss is the bottom line if the trade goes against you. Take profits in two batches—after earnings, if it pulls back to 1400-1420, close half; if it breaks below 1350, close all and lock in gains; if volume surges and it breaks above 1550, the short structure is invalidated, exit unconditionally. Earnings are the biggest variable, don't fully load your position before the report.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK East Coast released its Q4 2026 fiscal year financial report after market close on August 5 (early morning Beijing time August 6). 1. Current Market Expectations 1. The company originally provided guidance: revenue $7.75-8.25 billion; EPS $30-33 2. Wall Street consensus expectation: revenue $8.39 billion, EPS $33.01, maintaining significant quarter-on-quarter growth 3. Key anchor points I focus on • AI enterprise-level SSD revenue growth and $42 billion long-term order implementation progress • Can gross margin remain high, Can the momentum of NAND flash memory price increases continue? • Next quarter's earnings guidance is far more important than this figure; the market has long been hyped on high growth, and now funds are betting on whether the cycle will continue. A brief discussion of market background: In July, SNDK experienced a drawdown of nearly 40%, a deep correction after a big rally. This recent rebound has been driven by funds lurking in the early stages, betting on earnings reports that exceeded expectations. Coupled with persistently high U.S. Treasury yields, valuation pressure on growth stocks has persisted, making sustained gains quite challenging. II. Three Market Scenarios, Everyone Has a Clear Idea Scenario (1): Revenue and EPS both exceed expectations, and next quarter guidance is raised [Positive] • Trigger conditions: Revenue breaks through 8.5 billion, EPS exceeds 34, and subsequent revenue and gross margin expectations are raised; The data center business continued to maintain triple-digit sequential growth. • Market Outlook: After-hours rally, testing the 1520-1580 resistance zone, which will also drive a rebound in storage sectors such as Micron and SK Hynix. • Hidden risks: Even if notSpaceX delivered a strong Q2, with revenue climbing to $7.81B (+92% YoY) while its operating loss narrowed significantly from $970M to $143M. The NVIDIA partnership for the Starmind AI1 satellite computing payload also adds to the company's long-term technology narrative.
In the near term, however, execution may take a back seat to supply dynamics. With up to 20% of restricted shares becoming eligible for sale on Aug. 6 and XSPCX trading roughly 3.6% lower at last check, the market could face additional selling pressure before fundamentals reassert themselves. The topic is currently ranked No. 2 on OKX Orbit.
This is market commentary, not financial advice.
#SpaceXBeatEstimates #OKXOrbitTopics #EarningsRealityCheck Are you ready, brothers, to welcome the arrival of Ethereum 2000!!! Continuous weeks of capital inflow, institutional base positions have been established, so it is very resistant to decline, moving sideways instead of falling, next is the challenge of the key 2000 level!!
Recently, the market has been volatile with altcoin rotation and sell-offs, but ETH is not falling, which is due to supply contraction + institutional base position support + on-chain fundamentals collectively causing this resistance to decline.
✅ Why is it resistant to decline and not falling?
1. A large amount of ETH is staked and locked, reducing circulating supply
Over 30% of ETH is staked in PoS contracts, with slow exit queues; ETH reserves on exchanges continue to decline, reducing spot chips available for dumping.
During market panic, there is no large-scale spot selling pressure, so deep declines are difficult.
2. Institutional base positions supporting, no longer pure retail speculation
Although spot ETFs occasionally see outflows, some institutions hold base positions and buy on dips; some overseas banks allocate to staked ETH-ETFs, treating ETH as a yield-bearing tech asset, so pullbacks attract buying to support prices.
3. There is rigid underlying demand on-chain
DeFi, stablecoins, RWA tokenization of real assets, Layer 2 all run on Ethereum; regardless of price rises or falls, interactions and transfers consume ETH as gas fees, creating continuous underlying demand; when the market warms and on-chain activity increases, circulating supply is further consumed.
4. Derivative leverage has been cleared in advance
In the previous correction, long leverage was heavily cleaned out; now contract market leverage is low, lacking the momentum of cascading liquidations to drive dumps; without leverage stampedes, downward pressure is weakened.
5. Risk appetite recovery due to easing macro geopolitical tensions
US-Iran conflict cooling, oil prices falling, US Treasury yields slightly down, growth risk assets overall get a breather, and ETH as the crypto sector's "growth stock" directly benefits.
⚠️ Important reminder: "Strong market" does not mean a reversal has occurred
Currently, it is a weak volatile recovery, not a one-sided bull market, and several hidden risks cannot be ignored:
1. ETH-ETF funds are unstable, often showing single-day net outflows; if institutional funds continue to withdraw, strong support will be broken;
2. It is a high-beta asset; if BTC experiences a sharp correction, ETH’s decline is often greater than BTC’s;
3. Fed rate hike expectations can return at any time; rising US Treasury yields will directly suppress ETH valuation;
4. Heavy trapped positions accumulate at 1900-1950 USD; selling pressure emerges in this range, making it difficult to break through in one go.
📌 Key price levels (current)
• First support: 1840-1850; holding here maintains strong volatile consolidation; if volume breaks down below, the resistance pattern will be broken, returning to weak correction, with 1800 as the next defense level.
• First resistance: 1890-1900;
• Strong resistance: 1940-1950; only with volume and stable hold in this range will the rebound space truly open, challenging the 2000 integer level.
Follow-up observation of two core signals
1. Whether volume breaks and holds above 1900, with ETF returning to sustained net inflows;
2. Whether BTC can hold the 63000 level; once BTC turns down, ETH’s "strong" situation will quickly disappear. ETH Ethereum｜Evening and Early Morning Trend Analysis
Current price 1888 is approaching the psychological key resistance at 1900. Following the BTC market rally, short-term bullish momentum has warmed up; however, the volume on the upward move has not significantly increased. The resistance pressure between 1900‑1925 is heavy, still within a range-bound consolidation phase, and has not fully opened a one-sided rally. The trend remains highly correlated with Bitcoin's market strength.
Key Price Levels Reference
Resistance Above (from near to far)
1. Short-term first resistance: 1895‑1905, the dividing line between short-term strength and weakness, the primary test zone for this rebound
2. Mid-term strong resistance: 1925‑1945; only by breaking and holding above 1945 with volume can the mid-term weak pattern be alleviated and upward space opened
Support Below (from near to far)
1. Short-term critical support: 1865‑1870, the recently broken resistance turned support, short-term bullish defense platform
2. Core defensive support: 1845; if the price effectively breaks below 1865, the current rebound structure is damaged, returning to adjustment and testing 1820 support
Two Scenario Projections
1. Bullish scenario: holding the 1865 support and breaking and holding above 1905 with volume, then there is a chance to challenge the 1945 resistance; a volume-less spike is only a passive rebound following the market and is prone to pressure and pullback.
2. Bearish scenario: continuous pressure below 1905, with the candlestick body breaking below 1865 support, the rebound ends, bears regain control, and the price tests the key 1845 support downward.
Market Observation Focus
1865 support and 1905 resistance form the core short-term range.
Currently in a turning window, frequent stop-loss sweeps with wicks back and forth; focus on the volume at the 1905 breakout point. Once BTC turns down, Ethereum's pullback will follow synchronously. Contract volatility is intense, and high leverage liquidation risk is extremely high.$GOOGL Google's biggest risk now is not falling behind in AI.
It's that AI investments are becoming increasingly successful, but the market is growing more worried that it's spending too much.
Many people have been discussing recently:
Can Google still catch up with OpenAI?
Is Gemini really viable?
But I think these are no longer the main concerns of the capital market.
The real question has become:
How much more will Google spend on AI?
Last quarter, Google Cloud revenue grew 82% year-over-year, marking one of the fastest growth rates in history, with Gemini and AI-related businesses continuing to drive enterprise demand. Meanwhile, Alphabet has again raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance, from the original $180 billion–$190 billion to $195 billion–$205 billion. (Euronext Live)
Seeing this, many might think:
Isn't rapid business growth a good reason to increase investment?
Here's the problem.
The market used to like Google because of its strong cash flow and high profit margins.
Now Google is increasingly resembling an AI infrastructure company.
Data centers.
GPUs.
Chips.
Power.
Servers.
All of these require real cash investment.
Alphabet recently disclosed that future data center-related lease commitments have reached about $85.2 billion, and the entire tech industry's long-term data center lease commitments around AI have exceeded $1 trillion. (Reuters)
In other words:
Google is not unable to make money now.
But the money it earns is almost immediately reinvested into the next round of AI development.
So the market is starting to revalue Google.
In the past, people looked at:
How much advertising revenue could still grow.
Now they look at:
When AI will actually start to pay back these investments.
If Gemini continues to improve competitiveness and Google Cloud maintains rapid growth, these investments could become a moat in the future.
But if AI commercialization grows slower than capital expenditures, then no matter how impressive the revenue, investors will find it hard to feel secure.
I no longer see Google as a traditional internet company.
It increasingly looks like a company frantically expanding its factories.
The faster the factories are built,
The higher the future ceiling.
But the greater the risk.
So I think Google's biggest challenge in the future is not whether it can do AI well.
But:
When AI can truly start to return on these sky-high investments.
DYOR. #临时通航协议待落地，油价风险尚未反转
🔥The Hormuz drama isn't over yet—the agreement hasn't been signed, oil prices have already dropped, but don't rush to bottom-fish
Let's pour some cold water first: Today (August 5), oil prices plunged 5%, not because the risk is gone, but because the market is betting the agreement will be reached. But betting aside, the agreement is not finalized yet.
【Timeline: How oil prices have been played by Hormuz in the past three months】
End of February → US and Israel airstrike Iran, Iran closes the strait, Brent surges above 120
Mid-June → US and Iran sign a temporary memorandum of understanding, market thinks the big picture is settled, Brent falls back to 68
Early July → Iran backtracks saying the agreement was violated, navigation volume drops to zero for a while, oil price rebounds to 90
August 5 → Qatar officials + US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hint "agreement is close," Brent falls another 5% to 79
See the pattern? Oil prices have rollercoastered between 68 and 90 three times, each time because of the same strait and the same paper agreement.
【Where exactly is the agreement stuck】
On the surface, the US and Iran are negotiating "navigation rules + financial incentives" in Doha.
But the real landmines haven't been cleared:
Landmine 1: Iran wants to charge tolls. After the toll-free period ends in mid-August, Iran plans to officially charge ships passing through the strait. This tramples on the principle of freedom of international navigation, and the agreement could be torn up at any time.
Landmine 2: Navigation volume is only half of pre-conflict levels. Currently, daily navigation volume has recovered to about 50%-57% of pre-conflict levels, but the shipping industry needs 6-9 months to readjust to the traffic rhythm. Also, currently "more ships are leaving than entering," which is not normal.
Landmine 3: OPEC+ is still increasing production. Starting August, core member countries' daily quotas increase by 188,000 barrels, adding supply pressure.
【Why the oil price risk "has not yet reversed"】
Today's oil price drop is a drop in "geopolitical risk premium," not fundamentals.
Look at some data:
- Brent has fallen from the March high of 126 to 79 now, a 37% drop, already pricing in the expectation of "agreement reached + navigation restored"
- But global OECD oil inventories are 8% below the five-year average, with nearly 300 million barrels consumed, the buffer is thin
- If the agreement falls apart again, inventory rebuilding will last at least until year-end
This means: the downside for oil prices is limited, but the upside potential is huge. In options terms, the current oil price distribution is "limited left skew, very fat right tail."
Goldman Sachs' forecast illustrates this well—they set Q3 Brent at 80, Q4 at 80, and full-year 2027 at 75. This forecast itself assumes "the agreement is smoothly implemented." Once that assumption fails, oil prices returning to 100+ won't need much justification.
【Impact on crypto and risk assets】
Oil price drop → inflation expectations fall → Fed tightening pressure eases → risk assets catch a breather.
Today’s big rise in US stocks and decline in Treasury yields follow this logic. S&P 500 breaking 7700, Dow hitting 54000, all related to oil price retreat.
But don't celebrate too soon.
If Iran really starts charging tolls in mid to late August, or if negotiations break down, oil prices will rebound instantly. Then inflation expectations will rise again, and the Fed’s hawkish narrative will regain dominance. For crypto, oil price is one of the most sensitive macro variables right now—it directly determines the energy component in CPI, which in turn affects rate cut expectations.
【My judgment】
Short term (1-2 weeks): Oil price will fluctuate between 75-85, waiting for the agreement to be finalized. If signed, it might test 70; if talks collapse, 90 will return quickly.
Medium term (until year-end): Even if the agreement is reached, global oil inventory rebuilding + OPEC+ production increases will push the oil price center lower, but days below 60 are hard to see. The "fragility" of strait navigation has already been exposed once; the market won’t give a zero risk premium again.
Strategy: Betting on a one-way oil price drop now has a poor risk-reward ratio. Instead of betting on oil price direction, betting on volatility—VIX-style energy volatility products—may be more valuable.
The above is purely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Do you think the Hormuz drama will conclude in August? Let's discuss in the comments.#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
$SPCX slid from 130 down to 110, losing twenty dollars. Many who bought at high prices are still dreaming of a rebound, but what came instead was continued decline.
The price is stuck at 110 now, but don’t be mistaken—this level is no longer support, it’s resistance. Tomorrow on 8/6, the first batch of shares will become tradable, doubling the circulating supply. The supply will suddenly flood the market. Today’s volume already tested 110; if it can’t hold tomorrow, things will only get worse.
The earnings report featured a big capital expenditure feast on AI computing power and Starship, which the market can’t digest in the short term, and there’s no clear path to recovery. Don’t expect the price to return near the 135 issuance price this month.
My own strategy: first aim to take profits around 105; if it truly breaks below 110 without bouncing back, wait for a small-scale pullback to stabilize before going long again. Don’t catch a falling knife.
$SPCX Most traders don’t blow their accounts because of bad strategy.
They blow it because they can’t sit with the pain of being wrong.
Ego kills more accounts than the market ever will.
Real talk.In the past two days, the most notable divergence in the crypto market is worth summarizing for its potential impact on crypto.
US July ADP private employment increased by only 44,000, below the market expectation of 70,000. Oil prices also returned to around $79, with easing pressure on rate hikes and inflation. However, wage growth remains relatively high, and this data set is not enough for the market to directly bet on easing.
US stocks entered risk-on mode on Tuesday, with small-cap stocks rising 1.8%, $BTC up about 0.7%, and $ETH about 0.4%. The macro environment has improved, but crypto funds have not clearly followed, indicating that spot buying is still weak, and ETH's recovery continues to lag behind BTC.
Next, the focus is on Friday's nonfarm payrolls. The market currently expects about 80,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. If the data is weak but unemployment does not worsen significantly, BTC has a chance to retest 65000. If employment and wages are both strong, 64000 is likely to be broken again, with 63000 as the next support level. This is part of my trading analysis.
At this stage, BTC is relatively more stable, while ETH and altcoins still need confirmation from funds.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
Last night when the $SPCX earnings report came out, many were confused: how could the data be so good yet the price still plunged?
See, the logic proved true again: when looking at US stocks, first check earnings, ETF inflows, cash flow, capital expenditures, and only then the candlestick chart. SPCX is burning cash fiercely (all poured into AI computing power and Starship), but without solid profit guidance, the market naturally panics.
Plus, the unlocking date on 8.6 is just around the corner, and everyone fears major shareholders cashing out on bad news. Unlocking + Nasdaq pullback + Starship rumors—can this plunge not shake the market?
Technically, it has already fallen below the 20-day moving average, with support around 109 and resistance between 124-125. Tomorrow’s unlocking day is a critical point; if insiders start selling en masse, the expanded float could easily trigger a chain reaction of declines.
Tomorrow, focus on the volume in the first half hour after the open: if volume surges with a drop and no rebound, the bearish trend continues; if buyers quickly step in, it means the bad news has been priced in early. Do you think tomorrow’s dip can hold above 109? Let’s discuss in the comments👇
$SPCX $XSPCX $HYPE 📒 ｜A Successful Long Position Review
I define this trade as a left-side ambush + right-side confirmation, not simply a bottom-fishing.
Trading logic as follows:
📈 Daily Chart:
At that time, the daily chart was still in a downtrend overall, so I didn’t rush to enter but waited for the price to reach the support area I was watching.
I focused on around $52 for three main reasons:
① Previous rebound support/resistance flip zone with strong holding.
② Drawing Fibonacci retracement from $38 to $75, around $52 corresponds exactly to the 0.618 golden ratio, an important support area.
③ The daily chart formed two bottoms at this level, creating a small double bottom pattern, indicating weakening bearish momentum.
📊 4-Hour Chart:
This is when I really started considering going long.
The price near the support area did not make new lows but began forming higher highs and higher lows, showing signs of bottoming.
At the same time, the MACD green bars kept shrinking, indicating bearish momentum was fading and bulls were trying to take over.
Although the trend reversal wasn’t confirmed yet, conditions to participate in the rebound were met.
⏱ 15-Minute Chart:
I didn’t guess the bottom in advance but waited for the price to break through, then retest the key level to confirm support before entering.
My trading system always follows:
Daily chart to determine direction → find key levels → 4-hour chart for structure → 15-minute chart for execution.
In the end, this trade hit the take profit smoothly.
The biggest shortcoming of this trade:
Direction judgment was correct, but I took profit too early.
Worried about the market falling again, I chose to cash out early and didn’t hold according to the plan, missing out on larger subsequent gains.
This is also what I need to keep improving:
Entry relies on logic, holding relies on discipline.
In the future, I hope to:
Let stop loss protect risk, let the trend decide profits, not emotions influence take profit.
The above is only a personal trading record and does not constitute any investment advice.
⟡ Probability believer
⟡ Follow the trend
⟡ Know when to stop trading
⟡ Non-attachment tradingCurrently, SOL is fluctuating around $73-74, down about 75% from the $294 high in January 2025. On-chain transaction volume reached a record high of 4.24 billion in July, with daily active addresses exceeding 3 million, leading public blockchains. However, the on-chain prosperity has not translated into price — spot demand remains weak, and SOL is still below all daily moving averages. ETF net inflow for a single day is only $1 million, indicating limited institutional interest.
Technically, the ADX is only 13.5, indicating a very weak trend. I assess a 50% probability of consolidation between $71-76; a 35% probability of breaking below $70 to test $67.5 or even the June low; and only a 15% probability of stabilizing above $76 to target $78-80.
Key events to watch are the Non-Farm Payrolls on the 7th and CPI on the 12th. Strong on-chain data is a long-term positive, but short-term direction depends entirely on macro conditions and whether spot buying can keep up.
⚠️ Personal opinion, not investment advice, please be cautious. $BTC $SOL $SPCX
SpaceX delivered the best report card in history.
Market reaction: it dropped 10%, and worse is yet to come.
Tomorrow the lock-up period expires, unlocking 20% of shares flooding the market.
The best performance meets the biggest selling pressure.
SpaceX's first financial report shows revenue of $7.8 billion, 15% above expectations, a 92% year-over-year increase, with Starlink users surpassing 12 million.
A year ago, such data would have pushed the stock up at least 10 points after hours; now the stock price is $111, drifting further away from the $135 IPO price.
There is only one problem: $18.4 billion in capital expenditures, a sixfold increase from the previous quarter, almost entirely spent on AI infrastructure. The market sees not "investing in the future," but "burning cash with no clear timeline for returns."
I previously wrote that SpaceX would fall, which many didn’t understand at the time—after all, it raised 75 billion at IPO, was included in the Nasdaq 100, and had Musk’s halo effect, so how could it fall?
The logic is simple: at IPO, the float was only 4.24%, and the valuation was propped up by this extremely low float. Once the lock-up expires and real selling pressure hits, the valuation anchor will be broken.
Now the stock price is 18% below the IPO price, and tomorrow 20% of shares unlock. This process is just beginning.
AMD also fell on the same day for the same reason. The logic of the past two years’ AI rally was that whoever spent more rose more; now it’s reversed: how much you spent doesn’t matter, how much you earn back does.
Musk responded that SpaceX’s goal of $1 trillion in annual revenue has been moved up from 2031 to 2030. The market isn’t buying even 92% growth, so moving the target up by a year won’t save it.
Best earnings + biggest unlock + most expensive capital expenditure.
All three collided on the same day, and SpaceX demonstrated to all AI stocks one thing: the story is over, it’s time to turn in the homework.Recent Major US Data (August 2026) and BTC Impact Grading + Precise Beijing Time
I. Top-Level Impact (BTC often swings by thousands of points and contract liquidations frequently occur when these data are released)
1. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) (This Friday)
- Release Time: August 7, 20:30 Beijing Time (8:30 AM Eastern Time)
- Core Logic: Employment data determines the Fed's rate cut pace
① Employment exceeds expectations strongly → market expects high rates to last longer, US Treasury yields rise, BTC and Nasdaq fall sharply;
② Employment significantly below expectations → rate cut expectations rise, USD weakens, BTC rallies strongly.
- Current Market Expectation: New jobs 85,000-91,000, Unemployment rate 4.3%
2. July CPI Inflation Data (Monthly key inflation indicator)
- Release Time: August 13, 20:30 Beijing Time
- Key Point: The Fed closely watches inflation, which is the core basis for the September rate meeting
① CPI higher than expected = stubborn inflation, rate hikes or delayed cuts expected, bearish for Bitcoin;
② CPI cooling below expectations = easing expectations strengthen, bullish for crypto assets.
- Accompanied by August 14, 20:30 PPI Producer Price Index, which helps verify the inflation chain and correlates with BTC volatility.
3. July Core PCE (Fed's official inflation anchor, weighted more than CPI)
- Release Time: August 26, 20:30
- Importance: The Fed's sole core reference for setting rates, volatility comparable to CPI, a major macro event at month-end.
4. FOMC Meeting Minutes (Complete views from July rate meeting)
- Release Time: August 19, 2:00 AM
- Role: Reveals internal Fed official disagreements; hawkish remarks suppress risk assets, dovish remarks benefit BTC.
II. Secondary Impact (Minor fluctuations, assist in judging market direction)
1. JOLTS Job Openings (August 4, 22:00): Reflects labor market tightness, helps predict NFP trend;
2. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Every Thursday 20:30): Weekly update, minor short-term BTC impact;
3. ISM Manufacturing/Services PMI (Evenings of August 3 and 5): Economic health indicator, only large deviations from expectations trigger volatility.
III. End-of-Month Major Summit (Late August, potential super rally)
Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 27-29)
The Fed Chair's speech is one of the biggest black swan events for the crypto market each year. In 2022, a hawkish speech directly crushed BTC below 20,000, triggering single-direction moves of hundreds to thousands of points annually.
IV. Simple BTC Trading Logic Based on Data Outcomes
1. Overheated Inflation/Employment Data (Bearish BTC)
USD strengthens, US Treasury yields rise, funds flow out of crypto and US stocks, BTC under pressure and falls, short positions at highs tend to profit;
2. Weak Inflation/Employment Data (Bullish BTC)
Rate cut expectations rise, USD weakens, institutional funds flow into spot BTC ETFs, bull market begins;
3. Recently BTC has been stuck in a narrow range of 63,000-64,500, essentially because all funds are waiting and watching for the August 7 NFP and August 13 CPI data. Once data is released, a breakout single-direction move will occur.
Additional Correlation: Simultaneous Impact on Your SNDK Holdings
Storage tech stock (SNDK) is highly correlated with BTC risk appetite. When US macro data is bearish, BTC falls and drags down SNDK; when data is bullish, both rebound. The August 5 SNDK earnings report and August 7 NFP are very close, two consecutive major catalysts that will amplify volatility.
$BTC
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩
#以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 FCC plans to restrict Chinese high-speed optical modules from entering the US, and just one day later, China has launched 5 precise countermeasures:
1. Suspend US agencies from participating in CCC factory follow-up inspections
2. Initiate a national security investigation on imported printing and copying equipment
3. Sanction US compliance testing companies that assist FCC in choking supply
4. Implement countermeasures against 6 US companies involved in Xinjiang sanctions
5. Tighten export controls on dual-use items such as drones to the US
Each move is reciprocal and unprecedented in speed.
Optical modules are the core of AI data centers, with Chinese manufacturers accounting for over 70% of global high-end shipments. North American alternative capacity is difficult to supplement in the short term, potentially impacting the computing power development pace of Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Meta, and others.
We hold solid leverage in the AI infrastructure supply chain. Currently, DOGE is fluctuating around $0.069-$0.07, down about 85% from the $0.48 peak at the end of 2024, hitting a nearly three-year low. The monthly RSI has fallen below the 2022 bear market bottom level, marking the most oversold in history. On-chain active addresses increased by 16% over the week to 44,000; whales increased their holdings by about 200 million DOGE via Robinhood; futures open interest reached $1.1 billion. The positive impact of Musk winning the manipulation lawsuit in July has been digested, and the news of Tesla supporting DOGE payments briefly pushed the price up before it fell back.
However, DOGE remains below all daily moving averages, with strong resistance at $0.07-$0.075. Historically, August tends to perform weakly. I estimate a 50% probability of consolidating in the $0.066-$0.075 range; a 35% probability of breaking below $0.066 to test the $0.05 historical accumulation zone (which previously triggered two explosive rallies of 224% and 887%); and only a 15% probability of stabilizing above $0.075 to target $0.088-$0.10.
Key events to watch are the non-farm payrolls on the 7th, CPI on the 12th, and interest rate hike expectations. If $0.07 does not hold, it’s over; only breaking above $0.075 offers hope.
$BTC $DOGE The market is not accelerating its attack right now; it is continuing to consolidate at a high level.
First, looking at the structure: $BTC market dominance is 58.81%, ETH only 10.30%, and the altcoin season index is 42, indicating that funds are still clearly favoring $BTC, and the market has not truly entered a widespread altcoin expansion phase.
Next, looking at contracts: the total open interest is $387.67 billion, which has been almost flat over the past 24 hours. Futures open interest is only $1.98 billion, indicating that leverage has not significantly expanded. Market sentiment remains, but funds are not aggressively increasing positions.
So my current judgment is simple:
Sentiment can be bullish, but positions are not aggressive.
This feels more like a "waiting for direction" phase, not a market that is about to break out of a trend at a glance.
If $BTC continues to hold steady, open interest starts to increase, and the altcoin season index rises, then it would indicate the market is truly beginning to shift from BTC dominance toward broader risk appetite. That stage has not arrived yet. I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
SanDisk (SNDK) is releasing its earnings tonight. The market is not speculating on the revenue from the last quarter, but rather on the mid-term main theme of "HBF+NAND shortage" and its pricing revaluation.
On August 4th, SanDisk teamed up with SK Hynix at FMS2026 to launch the first set of HBF standards, placing NAND into the blank layer between HBM and SSD, specifically targeting the dual demands of bandwidth and capacity for AI inference. Samples will be available by the end of the year, with equipment deployment in early 2027, making the technology option's monetization timeline clear.
On the other hand, the NAND supply-demand gap is about 5%, with shortages continuing into 2027. Original manufacturers' new capacity won't come online until the second half of 2027. Data center SSDs and LTA lock volumes have locked in cash flow. The Q4 guidance of revenue at 7.75–8.25 billion and EPS of $30–33 shows confidence.
On earnings night, I believe the "expectation gap" is not in the current quarter's profit, but whether management dares to clearly explain the HBF mass production pace, LTA renewals, and 2027 supply positioning. Clear communication means mid-term acceleration; ambiguity means a round of profit-taking.
My view: Don't chase the instant spike from the earnings report; wait for the tone set in the conference call before adjusting positions. Hold steady for trend positions and leave swing positions for volatility. The storage supercycle is not over; HBF is SanDisk's ticket from a "cyclical stock" to an "AI infrastructure stock".
$SNDK
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 Currently, BTC is oscillating between 62k-64k, having halved from its previous high. On-chain data shows a large accumulation of chips around 62k, indicating strong support; long-term holders are still buying, and ETF funds have also flowed back. However, the macro environment is tight, the Clarity Act is stalled, and August has historically been weak.
Technically, volatility has been compressed to an extremely low level, signaling an imminent breakout. I estimate a 55% probability of continuing to fluctuate between 58k-67k, closing the month between 60k-64k; a 30% chance of breaking below 57.7k to test 52k; and only a 15% chance of surging above 67k to reach 71k+.
The key events to watch are the Nonfarm Payrolls on the 7th, CPI on the 12th, and Jackson Hole at the end of the month. Poor data could actually be bullish, while strong data would mean continued pressure. I’m not pessimistic as long as it doesn’t break below 62k, but it’s hard to see a rally without surpassing 64.7k. Short-term direction depends entirely on the macro environment. #BTC
$BTC $ETH Global capital markets have hit new highs riding the wave of AI rally and easing geopolitical energy risks, but the crypto market has consistently shown independent weak volatility, with BTC stuck around $64,000 and dragging around $64,000, with a severe lack of incremental funds overall. Combining annual ETF funds, derivatives holdings, stablecoin liquidity, and sector divergence data, it provides a comprehensive overview of the current market reality. 1. The root cause of market divergence: Capital flocking to AI tracks, crypto attractiveness weakens temporarily 1. The core driving force behind the broad rise in US stocks is rising AI sector valuations, with massive institutional funds flowing into AI stocks first, diverting incremental funds originally planned for the crypto market; 2. Data support: In the first half of 2026, US spot BTC ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of $5.4 billion, with institutional funds temporarily withdrawing from crypto and shifting to the stock market, directly causing a lack of fresh inflow into the crypto market; 3. Market Visuals: BTC is bouncing back and forth around $64,000, while the CoinDesk20 Composite Index is nearly flat. Overall, the market is mainly focused on trading between existing funds and trading with no sustained incremental inflow. Next, focus on two key macro events: the evening U.S. nonfarm payroll data and the ISM Services PMI, whose data quality directly disrupts global risk appetite; At the same time, earnings reports from leading industry companies such as Circle, Galaxy, and Riot can also have short-term effects on sector sentiment. - Circle's Q2 revenue was $701 million, up only 7% year-on-year, below market expectations; - Riot postponed its earnings report$SPCX
The earnings report is out, not bad, but good news equals bad news, I will continue to watch the unlock and remain bearish on SpaceX $SPCX.
This morning as soon as I woke up, I immediately went through SpaceX's first earnings report since going public.
To be honest, just looking at the operating data, this earnings report is not bad, it even clearly exceeded market expectations:
1️⃣ Revenue reached $7.8 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, higher than the market expectation of about $6.9 billion;
2️⃣ Operating loss narrowed from $970 million in the same period last year to $143 million;
3️⃣ Starlink revenue grew 66% year-over-year, still SpaceX's most stable profit source;
4️⃣ AI business revenue grew nearly 250% year-over-year, indicating this segment is no longer just a story but is starting to generate real income.
Of course, the problems are also very obvious 😂
SpaceX's capital expenditure for one quarter has already exceeded $18 billion, with AI-related capital expenditure reaching $15.8 billion, and management expects similar investment levels to continue for the next few quarters.
In other words, SpaceX's business growth is indeed very fast, but the burn rate is also extremely high.
However, compared to the numbers in the earnings report, I think the stock price reaction is more worth studying.
Before the earnings release, $SPCX intraday once rose to $130.49, closing up 9.4%, directly squeezing out many who had shorted early.
But after the earnings release, the stock price only briefly rose, then quickly fell back, and as of my writing, it has dropped to around $117, back below $120, with nearly half of the gains from the previous two trading days given back.
This actually indicates something very interesting:
The rise before the earnings was more like a concentrated short squeeze due to crowded short positions, rather than the market truly revaluing SpaceX at its current valuation.
Because this earnings report already delivered 92% revenue growth and a significantly narrowed operating loss, yet still couldn't hold the stock price at $130, not even $120.
So the real question now is:
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of restricted shares will officially enter the unlocking window, with up to about 911.5 million shares held by employees, insiders, and early investors becoming eligible for sale.
What does this number mean?
It doesn't mean all 911.5 million shares will be sold on the same day, but the unlocking scale already exceeds the current market float. Previously, there were very few shares available for trading, so a little capital could push the stock price up; after unlocking, the supply structure will be completely different.
This is why I have always believed that SpaceX's biggest risk at this stage is not whether the company has value, nor whether Starlink can grow in the future, but:
Whether the current valuation can hold up against the continuous release of shares.
SpaceX is certainly an excellent company, and Starlink, Starship, and AI all have huge potential.
But a good company does not mean any price is without risk.
Now even a clearly better-than-expected earnings report can only push the stock price intraday to $130, then fall back below $120.
If this trend continues, once large-scale unlocking truly arrives and early investors and employees start cashing out, the market will no longer be about "who believes in SpaceX," but "how much new capital is needed to absorb these shares."
So my view remains unchanged for now:
The earnings report can be further studied, and SpaceX can be followed long-term, but until the unlocking pressure is fully released, I will continue to be bearish based on the unlocking logic.
The earnings report proves SpaceX's business is indeed good.
The stock price proves that no matter how good the business is, it may not withstand an excessively high valuation and a sudden increase in supply.
In summary, continue to be bearish… Currently, BTC is oscillating between 62k-64k, having halved from its previous high. On-chain data shows a large accumulation of chips around 62k, indicating strong support; long-term holders are still buying, and ETF funds have also flowed back. However, the macro environment is tight, the Clarity Act is stalled, and August has historically been weak.
Technically, volatility has been compressed to an extremely low level, signaling an imminent breakout. I estimate a 55% probability of continuing to fluctuate between 58k-67k, closing the month between 60k-64k; a 30% chance of breaking below 57.7k to test 52k; and only a 15% chance of surging above 67k to reach 71k+.
The key factors are the Nonfarm Payrolls on the 7th, CPI on the 12th, and the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the month. Poor data could actually be bullish, while strong data would mean continued pressure. I’m not pessimistic unless it breaks below 62k, but if it can’t hold above 64.7k, a strong rally is unlikely. Short-term direction depends entirely on macro conditions.
This is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice $SNDK
Before the SNDK earnings report, the options structure is already clearly bearish. $SNDK
The call wall is concentrated around 1400-1500.
The current price has dropped below 1400, directly entering a clearly negative gamma zone.
At this point, market makers' hedging behavior will turn into "selling puts and buying calls," causing volatility to be amplified inversely, making downward movement easier to accelerate.
The near-month max pain is mostly around 1370, and the gamma flip is also in this range, meaning that the options expiration and hedging forces themselves are pushing the price toward this level.
More importantly, today's trading: a large number of call options are being closed out. This is not new bullish positions, but rather profit-taking and exposure reduction by longs.
Especially before earnings, this kind of action is almost never a strong bullish signal. The implied volatility priced post-earnings movement is about 15-16% (straddle cost), and historical actual volatility is often greater, but the directional bias is already cautious.
Adding two real confirmations:
1. Partner stock Kioxia surged at open but then directly pulled back, indicating sentiment cooling first;
2. Wall Street expectations are clearly above company guidance (EPS consensus ≈35 vs guidance 30-33), with the risk of "meeting expectations but disappointing" fully priced in.
Negative gamma + call closing + partner pullback + overly high expectations make the bearish logic before earnings clearer.$SPCX will face its first large-scale unlocking tomorrow, marking a real short-term stress test.
On August 6, about 910 million SPCX shares will be unlocked, nearly twice the size of the current market's circulating shares. After unlocking, the free float will increase from less than 5% to about 12%, suddenly increasing the available chips, and the market will first need to absorb the potential selling pressure.
It is worth noting that unlocking does not mean all 912 million shares will be dumped on the market on the same day. Whether employees, early investors, and institutions sell will ultimately depend on earnings performance, valuation levels, and market absorption capacity.
But for short-term traders, the focus is not on guessing who will sell, but on three things:
Whether trading volume significantly expands on the unlocking day and the following days
Whether there is sustained support after breaking key price levels
Whether the first earnings report can give the market a reason to hold on
SpaceX's unlocking is not a one-time event. The company adopts a phased arrangement, with multiple batches of shares entering circulation gradually afterward. Therefore, August 6 is more like the beginning of a liquidity structure change rather than the end of negative news.
For stocks with ultra-low free float like this, early price increases rely on scarcity of chips, while subsequent volatility depends on whether real buying can absorb the increasing supply. For SPCX, the core issue tomorrow is not the unlocking quantity itself, but at what price the market is willing to absorb this new supply of chips Regarding the Clarity Act, if by the 6th there is still no progress in discussions in Congress, that will be the main reason the key players use to write media pieces to short the market.
Because if these media outlets don't report the news that Congress is going on recess and the Clarity Act is effectively dead, most investors worldwide wouldn't even know about the congressional recess.
Nor would they know that the Clarity Act won't make it in time.
$BTC The U.S. stock market hit an all-time high driven by a semiconductor rally. What conditions would extend this trend to crypto risk assets? The S&P 500 closed at a record high, up 1.02%, and the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks increased by about $80 billion that day. The semiconductor sector led the gains. Just five chip stocks accounted for a significant portion of the day's increase. Micron rose 5.63%, adding $52.7 billion; AMD rose 6.34%, adding $50.1 billion; Intel rose 9.22%, adding $42.3 billion; Marvell rose 10.43%, adding $18.1 billion; and SanDisk rose 7.64%, adding $14.6 billion in market cap. The combined increase for these five stocks was about $178 billion. The strength in semiconductors this time means more than just a rise in risk appetite for the crypto market. Semiconductors are at the forefront of the global liquidity cycle asset classes. In particular, the strength of Micron and AMD signals that expectations for AI infrastructure demand remain robust. This is reflected in Nasdaq and BitcoIs history repeating itself? One million bitcoins are changing hands near $60,000
The current $60,000 level is no longer just an ordinary support line.
In February this year, bitcoins with costs concentrated between $60,000 and $70,000 already reached about 1.43 million coins, accounting for more than 8% of the non-exchange circulating supply. Now, at just two core price points of $61,000 and $63,000, there are approximately 362,000 and 515,000 BTC stacked respectively.
But history tells us:
A million coins piled up at a low level does not mean an immediate takeoff, but often indicates the final major reshuffling in a bear market.
In 2022, when Bitcoin dropped to between $17,600 and $21,200, about 1.539 million BTC changed hands within a month in that range, accounting for about 8% of the circulating supply at that time.
Later, after the FTX collapse, Bitcoin still dropped to around $16,000.
Looking back, the $17,000–$21,000 range was actually the true major bottom area of that cycle.
Similar phenomena also appeared after the 50% crash at the end of 2018, the flash crash during the March 2020 pandemic, and the 2022 LUNA and FTX collapses:
Panicked holders handed over their coins, while those willing to hold on took them.
Glassnode found at the time that the market accumulation behavior after these crashes was highly similar, and this structure usually appears when selling pressure gradually exhausts and the market begins to form a bottom.
So what really deserves attention now is not whether $63,000 will be pierced and broken again.
But that over one million BTC have already changed hands below.
This means that even if there is one last drop, it is more likely a bear market finale shakeout rather than the start of a new bear market.
Historical major bottoms are never formed when no one dares to buy.
They form when everyone is shouting that prices will fall further, but on-chain coins have quietly finished changing hands.The News Is Bullish… So Why Aren’t $BTC and $ETH Exploding Higher?
The market has no shortage of positive catalysts.
• Expectations for easier monetary policy are improving.
• Spot ETF demand remains supportive.
• Institutional adoption continues to expand.
• Regulatory clarity is gradually improving.
Yet Bitcoin and Ethereum are still struggling to build sustained momentum.
Here’s why.
1. Good news is already priced in.
Markets react to expectations, not headlines. Much of the optimism was reflected in prices before the news became widely accepted, leaving room for profit-taking rather than fresh buying.
2. Capital is becoming more selective.
Investors aren’t abandoning crypto—they’re allocating capital more carefully. Money is flowing toward the strongest narratives instead of lifting the entire market.
3. Liquidity is still limited.
Compared with previous bull markets, trading volumes remain relatively muted. Lower liquidity makes breakouts less reliable and increases the likelihood of sharp pullbacks.
4. Institutions still want macro confirmation.
Easing inflation and improving rate-cut expectations are encouraging, but many large investors are waiting for stronger economic signals before increasing exposure.
What’s next?
The next major rally will likely require more than positive headlines. Stronger ETF inflows, improving global liquidity, or a clear shift in central bank policy could become the catalyst that finally breaks the current range.
Markets often test investors’ patience before rewarding it. Periods of low excitement and sideways price action have historically been where long-term positions are built—not where trends end.
The biggest moves usually begin when the market stops believing they’ll happen.
#Ethereum11Years #TrumpTokenProbe #MSTRSells1638BTC Why not start at 100% ETH staked instead of 50% and let the transition take 5-10 years?
This will give certainty of issuance for all current stakers and DeFi, as well as give us enough time for the full transition towards stateless ZK validators, which will make solo staking infinitely cheaper and easier.
And most of all a natural staking equilibrium has time to manifest without disrupting ongoing staking & DeFi operations.
#EarningsRealityCheck
#SpaceXBeatEstimates
#AMDBeatsButDrops The most interesting aspect of the AI market right now is not whether chips will rise, but that storage, the most easily overlooked segment, is beginning to re-enter the center of market pricing.
SanDisk is releasing its earnings report tonight, and what the market really wants to see might not be how much profit was made in Q1, but a bigger question: Is the demand for AI infrastructure genuine growth, or is it an early overdraw?
Over the past year, the market's attention has been focused on GPUs and computing chips, but as AI model sizes continue to expand, storage is becoming the new bottleneck.
Tight supply of HBM, rising NAND prices, and the advancement of the HBF high-bandwidth flash standard—all these signals indicate that AI competition is no longer just about "who has the stronger chip," but about who can provide a complete storage and computing chain.
I believe that AI storage logic may experience short-term fluctuations, but the long-term trend still holds.
The reason is simple: if AI applications continue to expand, data volumes will only grow larger, and the demand for high-speed storage in model training and inference will not disappear.
But the problem lies here—the market has already priced in part of these expectations in advance.
So, rather than simply betting on earnings beating expectations, I am more focused on two signals from SanDisk:
First, whether AI-related order growth is sustained;
Second, whether the supply tightness in the coming quarters can truly translate into profits.
If the earnings report only tells the market "demand is good," that might not be enough.
What investors need to see now is: "Demand is good, and the company can really make money."
This is also why many AI companies recently have shown a phenomenon:
Orders hit new highs, but stock prices do not necessarily rise.
Because the market has moved from the "storytelling phase" to the verification and realization phase.
If I were allocating in the AI industry chain, I wouldn’t just focus on GPUs.
What’s truly worth attention might be those irreplaceable segments in AI infrastructure that the market hasn’t fully recognized yet.
SanDisk’s earnings report tonight is more like a stress test for AI storage.
If the data proves that storage tightness is turning into profitability, then the second phase of the AI market rally may still have room.
But if demand remains only at the expectation level, the market will continue to look for the next undervalued direction.
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 $SNDK The current Ethereum ecosystem is being dragged into an abyss by severe liquidity fragmentation. We have successfully moved over 95% of transaction throughput to Layer 2 wallets, claiming that transaction fees have been reduced to almost negligible levels. But the cost is that we have personally split a complete Ethereum world into dozens of isolated liquidity islands that do not communicate with each other.
For retail traders battling on-chain, cross-chain interaction has become a nightmare.
If you want to use a new protocol, you must first find a secure cross-chain bridge; after transferring to the new chain, you have to repurchase the native gas fee token; and on those new chains with liquidity as thin as a sheet of paper, even a slightly large buy order can cause slippage of over five percent. The scattered low gas fee advantage instantly vanishes in the face of multiple layers of fees: bridge fees, gas token swaps, and trading slippage.
This is equivalent to Ethereum nominally enlarging the cake but pushing retail traders into an endless internal liquidity trap.
More dangerously, this fragmented architecture forcibly increases security risks. Retail traders, in pursuit of high yields, have to repeatedly move funds across various cross-chain bridges lacking security audits. These cross-chain bridges are exactly the ideal cash-out machines for hackers. Every cross-chain transfer is a gamble with your principal and the hackers’ vulnerabilities.
Honestly, retail traders worldwide have long suffered from Ethereum’s fragmentation.
Vitalik is still calling daily for cross-L2 wallet standards and gas fee reforms, but the market cannot wait for such distant blueprints. In the current environment of competing existing funds, this extremely high interaction threshold and capital loss are mercilessly pushing retail traders toward one-stop, seamless monolithic chains like Solana or Hyperliquid.
If Ethereum cannot achieve complete chain abstraction in a short time, allowing users to complete seamless transactions without worrying about the underlying chain, then the so-called L2 infrastructure will ultimately become a pile of self-indulgent technical junk.
Of course, my pessimistic judgment leaves a 20% margin for error. If in the next few months, intent-based chain abstraction protocols can achieve widespread adoption and reduce cross-chain losses to near zero, I will also move my funds back to Ethereum L2. But until then, I prefer to be a cautious refugee staying honestly on a monolithic chain. SpaceX's first public earnings report exceeded expectations, but why did the stock price fall? The real test is just beginning
SpaceX's first earnings report after going public did not bring a simple "celebration"
In terms of revenue performance, the company still maintains a very strong growth rate. In Q2 2026, SpaceX's revenue reached about $7.8 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, surpassing previous market expectations; adjusted EBITDA also improved significantly, and the core business growth momentum remains strong.
However, after the earnings release, SpaceX's stock price fell in after-hours trading. The reason was not that the performance missed expectations, but that the capital market began to reassess the company's capital investment, profitability, and commercialization path over the next few years.
This is also the first time SpaceX, transitioning from a fast-growing private tech company to a publicly valued entity, has faced investors' comprehensive scrutiny of profits and cash flow.
Today, SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company but is laying out around three major directions: Starlink satellite internet, AI infrastructure, and commercial space business.
Among them, Starlink remains the most mature source of cash flow currently.
With the continuous expansion of its user base and growing demand from enterprise and government customers, Starlink is becoming an important revenue pillar for SpaceX. Compared to traditional aerospace business, satellite internet has stronger commercialization capabilities and is regarded by the market as a key asset supporting SpaceX's long-term profitability.
But after this earnings report, market focus is shifting toward AI.
Over the past year, Musk has continuously increased investment in AI infrastructure, with SpaceX committing substantial funds to computing power, data centers, and related energy systems.
The problem is that the AI industry is still in a high-investment phase.
Although AI-related business is growing rapidly and profitability shows signs of improvement, large-scale capital expenditures will still impact short-term profit performance. This is why some investors believe SpaceX may need to maintain a high-investment model for the next few years.
Market divergence has thus emerged.
Bullish capital focuses on future potential.
If AI computing demand continues to grow, SpaceX's vertical integration advantage—satellite network, launch capability, energy systems, and infrastructure construction—could become a competitive barrier difficult for other tech companies to replicate.
If Starlink, AI computing power, and space transportation form a complete ecosystem in the future, SpaceX's valuation logic may no longer be limited to traditional aerospace companies but closer to a next-generation infrastructure platform.
But cautious capital focuses on real-world pressures.
High growth means continuous investment.
Whether it is Starship project R&D, rocket launch system construction, or AI infrastructure expansion, all require substantial capital support.
For a company newly public, investors are looking not only at revenue growth speed but whether growth can ultimately convert into stable profits.
Additionally, the stock price faces short-term pressure from share unlocks.
Market data shows SpaceX will face its first batch of share unlocks post-IPO on August 6, with up to approximately 911.5 million shares potentially entering the market. The increased stock supply may affect short-term capital allocation and trigger market volatility.
Therefore, the current issue SpaceX faces is not whether there is growth.
The answer is clearly yes.
The real questions are:
Can high growth outpace capital consumption?
Can AI investment convert into long-term profits?
Can Starlink continue to provide stable cash flow?
Can Starship ultimately achieve the commercial goal of reducing launch costs?
The capital market is willing to give great tech companies higher valuations, but ultimately commercial results must validate this.
SpaceX has proven its technological breakthrough ability over the past decade, but after going public, it needs to further prove the sustainability of its business model.
In the short term, high capital expenditure and share unlocks may cause stock price volatility; but in the long term, the market is truly trading not just quarterly profits but whether SpaceX can become a key player in the future global infrastructure field.
The post-earnings adjustment does not mean the story is over; it is the company's first real market test.
In the end, the price will tell the market how much premium investors are willing to pay for SpaceX's future.
$SNDK $SPCX $GRVT
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
How has the AI investment wave impacted your trading?
Around 2023, I gradually increased investments in the tech sector, and in September 2024, the market started to pick up.
Around May to June 2026, after reaching the previous high, I sold all my positions.
The AI investment wave clearly has a stimulative effect on the crypto market $BTC $ETH
But it doesn’t always have a strong impact. Looking back at previous market trends, when the correlation with the US stock market was high,
every time tech stocks rose, it drove up mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, and the same applied to declines.
Recently, however, the correlation with crypto seems to have weakened; it hasn’t followed the rise of the US tech market or the gains have been weaker.
From a certain perspective, the subsequent rise of AI has also tightened liquidity for crypto.
If AI declines later, then focus will shift to tech giants like $AAPL and Microsoft.
Although some KOLs say good stocks never get cheap,
I personally believe these are indeed blue-chip stocks, but every panic is a localized opportunity to enter in batches.
The premise is to be prepared for a prolonged downturn for tech giants over the next period or even 1-2 years, such as prices dropping 50% or more from the buying price at the time of decline.
This is actually a chance to add to positions, like during a black swan event.
It’s not that these stocks are always “expensive” and you need to find the right timing to enter.
There is no market that always goes up or down; the important thing is that opportunities may "exist everywhere" in the market.
Preserving your survival time in the market is crucial.
@OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX @妍妍Eleven_OKX The leveraged funds driving the semiconductor market are now backfiring, as the semiconductor sectors in the US, South Korea, and Taiwan simultaneously enter a deleveraging cycle.
In June, leveraged ETFs continued to fuel the AI and semiconductor markets, but by July, they began rapid reverse deleveraging. The asset size of US tech leveraged ETFs has decreased by about $50 billion from the June peak and now stands at nearly $50 billion, the lowest level since April.
Similarly, the size of leveraged ETFs related to South Korea and Taiwan has dropped by more than half from their peaks, currently around $27 billion. Combined, these two markets still hold about $77 billion. In just over a month, nearly half of the leveraged ETF assets have disappeared.
The shrinkage in leveraged ETF size partly comes from net asset losses due to underlying stock declines, partly from investor redemptions, and partly from daily rebalancing by funds to maintain two- or three-times leverage. After investors redeem, funds need to sell stocks; after underlying stocks fall, funds also need to reduce positions to maintain target leverage.
When prices rise, this mechanism continuously generates mechanical buying. Stock prices rise, ETF net asset value increases, and to maintain fixed leverage, funds keep buying underlying stocks. The higher the price rises, the more they buy, and the larger the fund size grows.
After the market reverses, the entire process works in reverse. Stock declines cause ETF net asset value to shrink, funds start reducing positions, and investors seeing increasing losses continue to redeem, forcing funds to sell even more underlying stocks.
The triple-leveraged US semiconductor ETF $SOXL has already dropped about 67% from its June peak. After a 67% drop, it needs to rise more than 200% to return to its original level.
US tech products bet on Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron; South Korean funds focus on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics; Taiwan concentrates on TSMC and the semiconductor supply chain. Ultimately, all bets are on AI computing power, advanced processes, and memory chips.
Previously, global funds simultaneously bought into the same story, and leveraged ETFs amplified this trade further. Now, with US tech stocks and South Korean semiconductors both falling, leverage in all three markets is beginning to contract together.
Of course, the leveraged ETF size has nearly halved, indicating that leveraged positions are being cleared, but how long this cleansing will take before the market returns to normal is uncertain.$BTC Is Quiet… But Capital Rotation Is Already Underway.
Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range, but the real story is happening beneath the surface. On-chain data suggests the market is entering a new phase where capital is rotating rather than simply accumulating.
🔹 Long-term holders are slowing down
After months of aggressive accumulation, long-term holders are no longer buying every dip. Their holdings remain near record highs, which keeps circulating supply relatively tight, but the pace of accumulation has shifted into a neutral phase with selective profit-taking.
🔹 ETFs remain the strongest source of demand
US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue absorbing supply, with steady net inflows led by institutional players. As long as ETF demand remains healthy, it provides a strong foundation for Bitcoin and reduces the probability of a prolonged, deep sell-off.
🔹 Whale activity deserves attention
CryptoQuant data shows Binance’s whale transfer ratio has climbed to its highest level in months. More BTC moving to exchanges doesn’t automatically mean whales are selling, but it does signal that large holders are preparing to increase liquidity. Historically, this often precedes periods of higher volatility.
What this means for the market
The battle is no longer between buyers and sellers alone—it’s between institutional accumulation and whale distribution.
If ETF inflows continue to absorb available supply while exchange inflows remain limited, Bitcoin could eventually break higher. But if whale deposits accelerate and institutional demand weakens, the current range may resolve to the downside.
The next major move is unlikely to be driven by headlines alone. Watch the flow of capital, not just the price chart.
#SP500Hits7700 #SandiskEarningsWatch #HormuzDealStillPending Why did SPCX's earnings report, which met expectations after the market closed at midnight, still cause a sharp drop and then start to decline?
It's obvious that recently, US stocks related to AI generally show large capital expenditures in their earnings reports.
We've been discussing in the live room that when looking at US stocks, you need to consider earnings reports, ETF inflows, cash flow, capital expenditures, and finally the candlestick charts.
SPCX's revenue and losses are indeed very impressive, but what the market really worries about is
that the company is spending too much on AI computing power, data centers, Starship, and satellite deployment,
but hasn't provided sufficiently clear future cash flow and profit guidance.
The market feels that you won't be able to make that much money so quickly in the short term.
On August 6th, a new round of unlocking will begin. Could there be negative sell-offs?
If the unlocking coincides with concentrated sales by major shareholders, a weakening Nasdaq, or negative Starship news,
the sudden expansion of the circulating supply could lead to continuous declines. The trading volume on that day will be huge.
So, as soon as I woke up this morning, I immediately shorted one rocket at market price, holding it until tomorrow's unlocking to see. #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops In the past two days, I've seen several AI news pieces in a row, and I realized they are actually all talking about the same thing.
Google and Amazon continue to increase AI capital expenditures; Anthropic confirms forming an internal chip team; ByteDance releases a native full-duplex audio-video large model; Yushi Technology launches IPO. These seem like unrelated news items, but viewed together, a common trend becomes increasingly clear.
──── ✦ ────
A few days ago, Google and Amazon released their earnings reports, and many people discussed revenue, profits, and cloud business growth.
But what I think is truly worth noting is that neither company has slowed down AI investment. Google continues to invest in Gemini while also investing in Anthropic; Amazon keeps expanding AWS, developing the Trainium chip, and increasing AI infrastructure construction. Although their betting methods differ, they are both wagering on the same thing: the future demand for AI computing power will continue to grow.
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If cloud providers are competing for computing power, then model companies are starting to compete for control behind that computing power.
Anthropic's confirmation of forming an internal chip team, in my view, is not just about reducing costs. Chips determine inference costs, inference costs determine model prices, and model prices ultimately determine how far AI can go. From renting GPUs to starting to develop their own chips, what they truly want to control is the authority over tens of billions of dollars in future computing power costs.
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ByteDance released the native full-duplex audio-video model SeedRealtime on the same day, and I think the logic is the same.
Compared to past solutions where multiple models worked in series, full-duplex integrates voice, understanding, and generation into the same model, reducing latency and improving real-time interaction experience. It solves not only model capability but also the efficiency problem of the entire underlying architecture.
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Then look at Yushi Technology.
Choosing this timing for an IPO is essentially about reserving resources for the next stage of competition. Whether it's financing to expand production or continuing to develop core robotics technology, the goal is the same—to hold more key capabilities in their own hands rather than relying on others.
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So I increasingly feel that the AI industry has entered a new stage of competition.
In the past, companies competed on model parameters, benchmarks, and rankings; now, more and more companies are actively extending upstream and downstream. Cloud providers are locking computing power, model companies are locking chips, application companies are locking entry points, and everyone hopes to hold the most critical links in the industry chain in their own hands.
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Phase one: AI companies competed on models.
Phase two: competition is on the industry chain.
And in the next phase, what I look forward to seeing is: who can define the new infrastructure of the AI era.
Because what truly determines the value of an AI company may no longer be just the model itself, but how many chips, computing power, data, and entry points it can control.
The above represents only personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. $GOOGL $AMZN $NVDA Here's an unpopular observation: $BTC is stuck around 64K, and altcoins are even more lifeless, with no decent sector rotation at all. Why? Because there's no new capital entering the market; in a zero-sum game, no one can pull anyone else up. The real altcoin season always follows three steps: "BTC stabilizes first, capital overflows, sector relay." Right now, not even the first step of new capital is present. The worst thing to do at this stage is to chase "the next 100x" everywhere. What you should do is acknowledge that this is just a low-volume bottoming process, move less, and conserve your ammo. Wait until the money flows in before talking about swimming. Let's see how it goes. #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops