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STX (Seagate) vs WDC (Western Digital) Earnings Divergence Core Analysis Key Conclusion: The difference between STX and WDC is not about who has stronger demand, but stems from differences in technology roadmap, product cycle, business structure, and management guidance style. STX relies on HAMR new technology for future growth expectations, while WDC depends on existing products to maintain current profitability. 1. Biggest Difference: HAMR Technology Roadmap STX: HAMR Leader Seagate is currently the fastest advancing vendor in HAMR technology, with 30TB HAMR drives already certified by leading cloud providers. HAMR can increase hard drive capacity, reduce unit storage cost, and bring technological premium. Due to AI data centers' growing demand for large-capacity storage, Seagate has secured more long-term orders, and management is more optimistic about the future. WDC: HAMR Later Western Digital's HAMR mass production timeline is relatively delayed, expected around 2027. Currently mainly relying on mature products like Ultra-SMR and ePMR. Advantages: High product yield, excellent cost control, with this quarter's gross margin about 54%, higher than STX. Shortcomings: Lacks growth elasticity brought by next-generation technology. Simply put: WDC earns money now, STX bets on future growth. 2. Business Structure Differences STX: Almost 100% focused on HDD business. Benefiting from AI data centers' growing demand for large-capacity storage. Simple business structure without other cyclical businesses affecting it, so management can more easily provide positive guidance. WDC: Recently completed the split of HDD and NAND flash businesses. Although beneficial for business focus in the long term, short term still affected by NAND cycle fluctuations and split transition. Therefore, WDC's earnings guidance is more conservative. 3. Order and Pricing Power Differences STX: HAMR technology brings new orders. Cloud providers lock in capacity in advance to secure future storage needs. Long-term orders have higher certainty and also possess technology premium capability. WDC: Long-term contracts mainly secure existing Ultra-SMR products. Current products have strong profitability but lack new growth space brought by HAMR. Difference: Short-term profitability: WDC is stronger. Long-term technology premium: STX has the advantage. 4. Why did WDC's earnings look good but the stock price fell? The reason is not poor performance but market expectations being raised by Seagate. WDC: Revenue and EPS exceeded expectations. However, future guidance only met analyst expectations without extra surprises. Investors originally expected WDC to also raise guidance significantly like STX, so the expectation gap caused the stock price pullback. 5. Company Comparison STX Seagate: Core Advantages: HAMR technology leadership Clear benefits from AI storage demand High certainty of future orders Shortcomings: Current gross margin lower than WDC Market has high expectations for future growth WDC Western Digital: Core Advantages: Strong current profitability Higher gross margin Strong competitiveness of mature products Shortcomings: Slower HAMR progress NAND split has transition risks Future growth elasticity needs to wait Summary: STX's advantage lies in the future, WDC's advantage lies in the present. STX gains valuation uplift relying on AI storage upgrades and HAMR technology breakthroughs. WDC needs to wait for HAMR technology realization while relying on current product profitability support. Key follow-up focuses: 1. Whether WDC's HAMR mass production proceeds as planned. 2. Speed of STX's HAMR shipment ratio increase. 3. Whether cloud providers' AI capital expenditure continues to grow. 4. Impact of NAND price changes on WDC. 🚨 Bitcoin could be heading toward one of its biggest governance battles in years. In less than 3 days, a controversial proposal known as BIP-110 is expected to spark intense debate across the Bitcoin community. Supporters of the Ordinals and Runes ecosystem argue the proposal is designed to restrict their activity on Bitcoin. They also believe it won't achieve broad consensus and could ultimately lead to a minority fork with limited adoption. Whether that happens or not, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the debate is no longer just about code—it's about who gets to shape Bitcoin's future. For many builders in the Ordinals and Runes ecosystem, relying on Bitcoin maximalists to protect their interests is no longer seen as a viable strategy. Instead, they're calling for greater independence, including the development of their own Bitcoin client and the ability to evolve the network on their own terms. The message is simple: Don't wait for the next battle. Build your own future. The next few days could become another defining chapter in Bitcoin's ongoing governance story. $DOG Mode is coming... 👀 #Bitcoin #BTC #Ordinals #Runes #BIP110 #Crypto #Blockchain #DOG #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck #DailyOrbit As the stock hit a new high, Bezos began cashing out. According to the latest disclosed Form 4 filing, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos sold nearly $350 million worth of Amazon stock this Monday, marking his first reduction in company holdings this year. Quick overview of share reduction data: Reduction time: This Monday (at the time of record stock price highs) Cash-out amount: approximately $350 million Type of sale: First reduction in 2026 Bigger plan: Disclosed two days ago plans to sell up to 15 million shares (worth over $4 billion) Current holdings: Still holds the largest 🔍 shareholder at 8.16% Three key details: Stock price hit new highs This reduction occurred at the time of Amazon's record high. On Monday, Amazon's market value surpassed $3 trillion for the first time, closing at $284.02 per share, up more than 23% for the year. Stock prices hitting historic highs, and major shareholders cashing out part of their gains is a typical wealth management maneuver, especially for a founder like Bezos, who concentrates most of his wealth in a single stock. The $4 billion share reduction plan has just begun. Two days ago, Bezos disclosed in another document that he plans to sell up to 15 million Amazon shares, worth over $4 billion. This $350 million share reduction represents only a small part of the plan, indicating that there may be more share reduction operations in the future. 8.16% stake still leads absolutely. Even after this reduction, Bezos still leads significantly with an 8.16% stake, firmly holding Amazon's largest shareholder. Be the founder ETF FLOWS: $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows on Aug. 5, while $XRP spot ETFs saw net outflows. $BTC : $244.42M $ETH : $60.86M $XRP : -$3.58M Don't short against the trend! It's obvious that gold is still surging upward, yet this guy insists on adding another short position near 4300, dumping a new $9.42 million short order. He got a bit trapped right after entering. But if you say he doesn't understand the trend, he actually has over $10 million in profits in his account; if you say he does, then opening a short at this level is really stubborn. The amazing thing is, this newly opened position is actually up over $50,000 at the current price. Now he holds $24.69 million in short positions, with a floating loss of only $590,000. Honestly, this level of fluctuation is just a drop in the bucket for someone at his level. The real game probably isn't about this one battle. What really makes people curious is that this guy has quietly made $10.5 million since coming out last July, switching back and forth between crypto, storage, and commodities, making it impossible to tell if he's a hardcore bear or bull. Now the whole network is watching his liquidation price at 5888.2. If gold touches that level, that's over $20 million in fuel—wouldn't the gold price take off right there? But gold has been consolidating for too long; this might just be a last gasp. Maybe he'll really make a profit. What do you guys think? $XAU #谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注 Don’t just focus on who Google replaced. What’s truly worth paying attention to is that behind this management reshuffle lies a reflection of the entire AI industry entering a new phase of competition. I tend to believe this is both a proactive upgrade by Google and a sign that the battle for AI talent is intensifying. Hassabis shifting to Chief Scientist, dedicating more energy from management to AGI research and technical direction, essentially aims to bring core research forces back to the front line and accelerate the development of next-generation AI technology. On the other hand, several DeepMind veterans choosing to start their own ventures has also led the market to reassess Google’s talent stability. As companies like OpenAI and Anthropic continue to attract top researchers, competition in the AI industry is no longer just about models but also about the fight for elite talent. In my view, the core competitiveness of an AI company in the future will not simply be about how much computing power it has or how many larger-parameter models it launches. Talent determines the height of technological breakthroughs, computing power determines the speed of R&D progress, and products determine whether technology can truly create value. A more interesting pattern may emerge in the future: tech giants will continue to hold advantages through funding, data, and infrastructure, while AI startups will seek breakthrough opportunities through more flexible organizations and faster innovation. Therefore, what truly decides the outcome is not who poached which scientist, but who can continuously attract top talent, rapidly convert research achievements into products, and build long-term competitive barriers. The AI battle has only just entered a more intense stage. 🚨 Gold is making history… but Bitcoin is standing still. Why? While gold keeps pushing toward the historic $4,200/oz mark, $BTC continues to trade sideways. At first glance, it may seem like crypto has lost momentum—but the bigger picture tells a different story. Right now, investors are choosing safety over risk. Gold is benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty, aggressive central bank buying, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could eventually shift toward easier monetary policy. At the same time, high U.S. Treasury yields and a strong U.S. dollar are limiting both gold's upside and the appetite for riskier assets. Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains in consolidation. The long-term story hasn't changed. Institutional adoption continues to grow, spot ETF demand remains steady, and digital assets are becoming a larger part of global portfolios. What's missing isn't conviction—it's a catalyst. With crypto liquidity still below previous bull-market levels, many investors are waiting on key U.S. economic data, including CPI, PPI, and upcoming Federal Reserve commentary, before making bigger moves. History offers an interesting perspective. Gold often leads during periods of uncertainty. But when inflation cools, Treasury yields decline, and the dollar weakens, capital has historically rotated from traditional safe havens into risk assets—including $BTC and $ETH. The next major move could depend on three questions: • Can gold hold above $4,200/oz? • Can $BTC break out of its range with strong volume? • Will softer inflation, stronger ETF inflows, and a more dovish Fed reignite risk appetite? For now, gold has the spotlight. The real question is: How much longer before Bitcoin takes it back? #BTC #Bitcoin #Gold #Crypto #Ethereum #ETF #FederalReserve #Investing #Macro #CryptoMarkets #MSTRSells1638BTC #Gold4200BTCStalls #TrumpTokenProbe #DailyOrbit #Circle bets on Arc after earnings report, can USDC see new growth? 🔥Circle just released its Q2 earnings report, the numbers look decent, but the real highlight isn’t the report itself, it’s their all-in move on Arc. Quick rundown of the earnings: Revenue $701 million, +7% YoY, net profit $48 million. USDC circulation at 73.3 billion, market share 27%. On-chain transaction volume $1.48 trillion, up 1.5x YoY. Honestly, a 7% revenue growth isn’t explosive by crypto standards. So why did the market jump 16% after the report? Because everyone’s not focused on the current 7%, but on whether Circle can transform from a "stablecoin seller" to a "financial operating system" after Arc mainnet launches on September 16. What is Arc? Simply put, Circle built its own L1 public chain specifically for institutional payments, forex, and asset tokenization. Some key points: 1. USDC as gas fee. No ETH, no SOL, fees paid directly in USDC, so institutions don’t have to guess gas prices when budgeting. 2. Deterministic finality <1 second. Once a transaction is confirmed, it can’t be changed, no need to wait for 12 blocks, crucial for payment scenarios. 3. Optional privacy. Amounts can be hidden but addresses are visible, balancing compliance and confidentiality. The most impressive part is the validator list: BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, DTCC, Standard Chartered, SBI... This lineup looks less like a public chain and more like a Wall Street consortium. BlackRock is even deploying its BUIDL fund directly on Arc, and DTCC is working on asset tokenization. Also, Arc tokens have already done a $222 million presale, valued at $3 billion, with investments from a16z and BlackRock. CEO Jeremy Allaire clearly stated that 60% of tokens will go to ecosystem funding and airdrops. This means there will likely be a wave of incentives after mainnet launch. So, can USDC see new growth? My judgment: yes, but not immediately. In the short term, 73.3 billion circulation is already a high base, pushing higher requires new use cases. Arc is that new use case—if Arc really takes off, USDC could evolve from a "cross-chain transfer tool" to the "underlying settlement asset for institutional financial infrastructure," completely unlocking its circulation ceiling. But the risks are real: - Arc mainnet launches in September, it’s still in the planning stage. Over 100 developers sounds promising, but whether TVL and transaction volume can grow is another matter. - Interest rate tailwinds are fading. Circle used to earn heavily from reserve interest, but with the Fed’s rate cuts, that income will shrink. Arc must quickly deliver a second growth curve. - Competition won’t wait. Tether’s USDT is still dominant, PayPal is pushing PYUSD, and traditional banks are developing their own stablecoins. If Arc can’t quickly build network effects, the window will close. In short: Circle isn’t launching a new product, it’s betting on an identity transformation—from stablecoin issuer to on-chain financial infrastructure. If it wins, USDC’s narrative upgrades from "the dollar of crypto" to "the settlement layer of the internet." If it loses, it’s just an overvalued public chain plus a slowing stablecoin company. September 16 mainnet launch is a key milestone; we’ll see the real data then. For now, watch closely and don’t rush to FOMO. Do you think Arc can help USDC break out? Or will institutional chains just be self-indulgent? 👇The financial report figures clearly convey a signal of divergence: although revenue fell short of expectations, profits far exceeded them, which is precisely the market's true focus at this moment. Total revenue and reserve income reported $701 million, a 7% year-over-year increase. Although this is below Wall Street's consensus expectation of $717 million, adjusted EBITDA reached $143 million (up 8% year-over-year), and net profit turned sharply from a loss of $482.1 million in the same period last year to a profit of $48.21 million. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.18, higher than the expected $0.16—the improvement in profitability carries much more weight than the slight revenue shortfall. USDC data also points clearly: end-of-period circulation was $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year but down 4.8% quarter-over-quarter, with market share dropping to 27%. The reserve yield at quarter-end was 3.5%, while average circulation hit a new high of $76.5 billion. On-chain transaction volume surged 151% year-over-year to $14.8 trillion—even though the total stablecoin market cap has surpassed $310 billion and growth is slowing toward 2026, Circle's leadership in on-chain settlement depth remains unshaken. However, Arc is the true value anchor of this financial report and the absolute core of the market's repricing after the report. Arc is scheduled to officially launch its public mainnet on September 16, with over 100 institutions and ecosystem builders already participating in private mainnet testing. The list of founding validators is enough to convince any observer—BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy, Global Payments, ICE, Mastercard, MoneyGram, SBI Group, Standard Chartered Bank, Sumitomo Corporation, Visa—11 Wall Street-level institutions are all included. BlackRock plans to deploy the BUIDL fund to Arc, integrating native USDC to enable institutional investors to complete subscriptions, redemptions, and capital deployment within the same chain environment; DTCC plans to realize tokenization of custodial assets on Arc starting in the second half of 2027. Circle's payment network annualized transaction volume has reached $14.7 billion, a 76% quarter-over-quarter increase, with 175 financial institutions connected. The full-year other income guidance has been sharply raised from $150 million–$170 million to $310 million–$330 million, directly stemming from the recognition of ARC token presale revenue—all of this points to Arc no longer being a concept but an imminent institutional-grade financial infrastructure. Market reactions also confirm certainty amid divergence: after the earnings report, the stock price rose over 8% pre-market but turned to a nearly 3% decline during the session, showing clear Wall Street division. Morgan Stanley issued a "reduce" rating with a $38 price target, concerned about USDC circulation shrinkage and pressure on transaction-based income; TD Cowen gave a "buy" rating with an $82 price target. But regardless of short-term ratings, the new on-chain institutional finance track opened by Arc has truly been recognized by the market. For the storage sector, Arc's launch means Wall Street has officially built a new on-chain settlement and tokenization infrastructure—stablecoin settlement, asset tokenization, and institutional finance are advancing simultaneously, which is a long-term institutional positive for the crypto industry. But for hardware-centric narratives like SanDisk, the transmission path is limited: storage logic remains dominated by AI demand and supply shortages; Arc changes the settlement layer, not the compute layer. SanDisk's 1337 short position logic has not been shaken by Circle's earnings report; the short-term negative from guidance below expectations is still fermenting. Arc is a long-term narrative, SanDisk is a short-term fundamental—these two should not be conflated in trading, and this is a judgment we must affirm. #CircleEarnings #ArcMainnet #InstitutionalOnChainFinance #StorageAndSettlementSeparation Two hours ago, the 65K level was closely watched and it still hasn't been surpassed, but the bullish camp has already turned the divergence into a clear condition: whether it can turn this level from resistance into support. WWG believes that once $BTC stands back above 65K, the liquidity above will pull the price toward 67K; Yekoi also judges that the bullish continuation pattern remains, continuing to pyramid up with small positions, while reminding that there might be a pullback after the European and American sessions open. Unity Academy, however, is reluctant to bet near the key daily moving average: only follow if it is accepted upwards, avoid if it falls back below the moving average. The publicly verifiable capital flow is slightly bullish: Farside data shows that the latest daily net inflow for the US spot $BTC ETF is $244.4 million, positive for three consecutive days. Overall judgment: capital flow supports a rebound, but the price has not yet completed a breakout confirmation; only if 65K turns into support will we continue to look toward 67K, otherwise it will still be treated as range-bound oscillation. Will you wait for a stable breakout to follow, or wait for a pullback to buy in? Multiple altcoin technical setups lack official catalysts, and $HEI has also been exited with a small profit due to retesting and losing support, so no opportunities are listed this round. This is only a summary of opinions and information, not investment advice 🚨 Dormant Bitcoin Is Flowing to Coinbase—But U.S. Demand Remains Weak Bitcoin continues to trade near $64K, but on-chain data reveals a notable shift beneath the surface. 📊 Coinbase net inflows surged nearly 838% above the 30-day average, driven primarily by 3–7-year-old BTC moving back on-chain. Spending from the 3–5 year cohort alone exceeded $367M, suggesting long-dormant holders have become increasingly active. In contrast, Binance recorded mixed inflows and outflows over the same period, indicating this wave of older coins is largely Coinbase-specific rather than a market-wide exchange trend. ⚠️ Another signal is also weakening. The NVT Golden Cross has dropped sharply, implying network activity is cooling relative to Bitcoin's price. At the same time, the Coinbase Premium has remained negative, showing that U.S. spot demand has yet to strengthen enough to absorb the incoming supply. 💡 Taken together, the data points to consolidation rather than a strong directional trend. Unless Coinbase inflows begin to normalize or the Coinbase Premium turns positive, Bitcoin may continue trading in a relatively quiet range. #Bitcoin #BTC #Coinbase #Binance #OnChain #Crypto #Whales #NVT #MarketUpdate #Blockchain On the day gold hit a new high, someone added short positions up to 24 million. From yesterday to today, GOLD on Hyperliquid reached a peak of $4303.5, the highest since June 18, now back to 4259.3, still up 2.9% in 24 hours. The spot market is even more active, with a single-day increase of 4.2%, the strongest in five months. Most people are discussing whether to chase the price now. An address starting with 0x84a is doing the exact opposite. In the past 24 hours, it opened 2199.9 new GOLD short contracts between 4261.2 and 4300, with a transaction amount of about $9.423 million and a weighted average price of 4283.4. Note this price level, basically adding near the peak. More interestingly, it didn’t start today. On August 4, when GOLD was between 4058 and 4065, it began shorting. Then it kept adding as the price rose, adding more after each increase. Now, it has 5799.8 short contracts with 7x leverage, position value about $24.699 million, average entry price 4156.4, overall floating loss of $593,000, and liquidation price at 5888.2. There is an abnormal detail here. Although overall at a loss, the latest high-level short positions have actually turned profitable, with a floating profit of about $53,000 at current prices. The real drag on the account is the initial base position from August 4. In other words, the initial judgment was wrong, but every subsequent add-on position was increasingly accurate. This address is not new. Active since July 2025, with account equity about $8.183 million, historical cumulative profit of $10.5 million, has traded crypto, storage, and commodities swing trades without a fixed direction, following volatility wherever it goes. Currently, no take-profit, no stop-loss, and no further add-on orders are placed. Just left open like this. On the same day, another group is doing something similar but in the opposite direction. In South Korea, KOSPI closed down 4.59%, SK Hynix down 10.3%, Samsung Electronics down 6.3%. On-chain SKHX currently at 1061.5, down 10.6% in 24 hours. In the last four hours, five whales opened or added positions totaling about $9.077 million, all currently at a floating loss. The largest is a long position of 2394.8 contracts at an average price of 1073.5, liquidation price 1016.8, only 4.2% away from the current price. On one side, gold surges with someone stubbornly holding shorts; on the other, Korean stocks crash with people lining up to catch the falling knife. Both groups are betting on mean reversion and are currently trapped. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains quiet, showing no signs of volatility. I’ve always thought that adding positions against the trend is quite divisive. It can be the dumbest move or the most profitable, depending solely on whether you have enough capital to hold until your judgment is realized. This gold short account has over eight million in equity, positions over twenty-four million, and a liquidation price still at 5888; numerically, it can indeed hold on. But holding on doesn’t mean being right. What do you think will be the final outcome of this position? #Someone asked: ETH only rose 1.85% today, is it worth hyping? It is. Because what’s rising isn’t the price, it’s the "non-fungibility" of $ETH. To give an analogy— $SOL is like a newly opened highway: fast, cheap, less traffic jams, but the bridges aren’t finished yet, and sometimes the toll booths close at midnight; BNB Chain is like a mall’s own escalator: convenient, but if you want to move it, the property management won’t be happy; Ethereum is like the foundation of the old CBD: a bit slower, gas fees a bit higher (now reduced to a few cents thanks to L2), but 80% of the city’s banks, vaults, pawnshops, and securities exchanges are built on this land. Behind today’s 2% rise, three things are happening simultaneously: Spot ETFs have had net inflows for two consecutive days, with BlackRock’s ETHA historically accumulating nearly $8.7 billion In Q1, L2 + mainnet monthly active addresses reached 13.2 million, up 86% year-over-year, with over 200 million transactions; more users are coming, yet fees are being reduced by scaling—this is typical "early internet loss leader" behavior Glamsterdam / Hegota upgrades are on the way, mainnet TPS is pushing toward the ten-thousands, and L2 data rent will later flow back to a layer of burning—equivalent to upgrading the office building rental model once more So don’t just look at who rose 8% or 20% today. Altcoins compete on "who’s crazier this round," ETH competes on "whether this building will still stand ten years from now." $ETH Currently, BTC is consolidating around $64,000, nearly halving from last year's peak, while the US stock market keeps hitting new highs under the AI narrative. This decoupling has lasted for months, indicating that capital is prioritizing traditional risk assets over crypto. The phased inflow into ETFs is a positive signal, but the scale is still far from enough to reverse the major trend. Ethereum is relatively weaker, and altcoins show clear divergence—only a few with narratives or fundamental support can resist the decline, while most remain under pressure. The real key going forward is macro: whether the Federal Reserve truly shifts policy and whether the CLARITY Act can make substantial progress before recess. In the short term, continued range-bound volatility is likely, and a directional breakout requires a clearer catalyst. $ETH #沉睡比特币案迎行业机构介入 Thursday, August 6 | Night before Nonfarm Payrolls Fear and Greed Index: 25 - Extreme Fear Gold is breaking out — this is a signal Bitcoin holds steady above $64,000, Ethereum returns to $1,900 (up 1.57%, leading gains again). U.S. stocks take a breather after hitting record highs. But the real highlight is gold: surging to a historic high of $4,362. What does this mean for the crypto market? The key lies in the driving logic behind gold's surge. Gold is front-running a rate cut Gold's surge is mainly driven by two factors: weakening U.S. labor market signals and a weaker dollar (DXY falling below 100). Gold is the purest bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut — it is pricing in tomorrow’s dovish employment data in advance. When gold soars on rate cut expectations while the dollar falls, it is an exact signal of macro liquidity shifting toward easing. This is the macro backdrop the crypto market has been waiting for, and why BTC can hold firm above $64,000 and ETH can return to $1,900 without pulling back. Tomorrow will be the moment of confirmation All eyes are now on Friday’s July Nonfarm Payroll report (8:30 AM ET). Gold has already positioned for “weak” data. Today’s initial jobless claims also rose (forecast at 202,000). Weak employment data = dovish macro logic (oil price down + dollar down + labor weakness) fully realized = crypto market will push toward $66,000–$68,000. The only risk is if the data unexpectedly comes in strong, breaking dovish expectations. Key levels for BTC $64,000 — already defended, must hold above this level • Next target $66,000 ETH $1,900 (recovered) • Target $2,000 Gold hits historic highs, dollar falls, crypto market holds the line before Nonfarm data release. Don’t bet on the data direction prematurely — let the 8:30 AM ET data decide, keep an eye on the $64,000 support level. The entrance of the gold shop has been bustling again recently. Some people take a liking to a bracelet, but after hearing the offer, they put it back; Some dug through old gold jewelry at home and calculated its current value; Some people were just passing by, and when they saw "gold breaking through $4,300," they suddenly wondered: Did they miss out again? On August 6, international spot gold broke above $4,300 per ounce during trading and subsequently consolidated at high levels. This is a striking price point, but it's not a guarantee for the next high. It acts more like a magnifying glass: on one side, the market is repricing interest rates, the dollar, central bank gold purchases, and safe-haven demand; on the other, ordinary people's concentrated anxiety about "devaluation," "missed out," and "security." [$4300, What Price Is It Anyway?] First, let's break down the most confusing concept. The $4,300 mentioned in the trending search refers to the international spot gold price per ounce. It's not a price tag per gram from domestic gold shops, nor does it mean you can buy today and sell tomorrow to settle the price at the same rate. From the international display to the domestic counter, there are still exchange rates, brand premiums, craftsmanship fees, channel costs, and recycling discounts. Two people went into the store on the same day—one bought investment gold bars, the other bought intricate gold jewelry—but what they bought was actually not the same thing. The former is closer to the price of gold itself, while the latter also includes design, processing, and emotional value. When recycling, the labor costs that were expensive at purchase are often not returned as they are. So, seeing $4,300 and immediately asking, "Is gold jewelry still worth buying?" is like seeing wheat futures rise and immediately asking about tomorrow $MU is currently in a neutral to slightly low position—not the lowest (29% pullback from the 52-week high), nor a position chasing highs. Core logic: Forward P/E 5.77 vs analyst median target of $1,550, fundamentally extremely undervalued; technically oscillating within the $850–$960 large range, RSI 48 neutral, no directional signal.⚡ Bitcoin doesn't run on machines alone—it runs on people. When most people think about Bitcoin mining, they picture rows of noisy ASICs inside massive warehouses. What they don't see are the engineers, electricians, technicians, software developers, and energy experts working behind the scenes to keep the network running 24/7. Mining isn't just plugging in hardware. It's designing power systems, managing cooling, monitoring performance, repairing equipment, and building software that keeps thousands of machines online with minimal downtime. As the industry grows, so does the demand for skilled talent. Companies are investing in training, developing more efficient mining chips, improving energy management, and pushing innovation in automation and high-performance computing. Many of the breakthroughs born in Bitcoin mining are already influencing the broader data center industry. At its core, Bitcoin mining isn't only about hashrate. It's about the people who build, maintain, and improve the infrastructure that keeps the world's most decentralized financial network secure every single day. Behind every block mined is a team making it possible. $BTC #Bitcoin #BTC #Mining #Crypto #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #ADPCoolsFedSplit #DailyOrbit Interpretation of SanDisk's impressive financial report: 10 billion in buybacks as a foundation, short-term market remains uncertain, performance expected to surpass expectations, and with the support of 10 billion buybacks, SanDisk remains lukewarm. $SNDK Solid financial reports are solid. Last quarter, profits went wild, with revenue and profits far exceeding institutional expectations, and AI server storage orders directly boosted performance. The company has plenty of spare cash on hand, directly approved a $14 billion buyback quota, and with unused funds, can now spend a total of $15.5 billion to buy back its own shares. Simply put: the boss thinks their own stock price is cheap now and is bullish on their company in the long term. $MU Why did the stock price fall after the good news came out? The issue isn't how much you earned in the past, but that your earnings for the next quarter haven't been met. Previously, the stock price had already surged in advance, and everyone was hoping it would continue to explode, but next quarter's revenue and gross margin expectations fell short of the market's high expectations. Old funds immediately took advantage of the positive news to cash in and ran away, with profit-taking positions frantically dumped. What is the purpose of the 14 billion yuan buyback? First, long-term benefits: Slowly buying back stocks, reducing shares and increasing per-share value can firmly support the bottom, making endless crashes unlikely and insuring long-term holdings. Second, short-term ineffectiveness: Right now, the market is only focused on next quarter's growth, and buybacks can't stop short-term sell-offs, so most rebounds are just surges and pullbacks. $SKHYNIX #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorization added. Follow-up conclusion: SanDisk's revenue and profit both exceeded market expectations, with its AI storage business driving a surge in performance, and the $14 billion buyback was approved The sharp drop in Korean semiconductor stocks is a mistaken sell-off! This storage cycle is completely different from before. #内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？ Recently, many people have been scared by the continuous adjustments in Korean semiconductors, rushing to declare the storage cycle has peaked and the market is over. But today, I will plainly state my only core view: this wave of decline in Korean chip stocks is purely an emotional overreaction. This storage upcycle is far from over; in fact, it will be longer than any previous cycle! I'm not blindly bullish. Based on recent industry data and market logic, I will explain why I am so confident. First, everyone must distinguish one thing: a stock price correction ≠ the peak of the industry cycle. Recently, Samsung and SK Hynix have been weakening continuously, and the Korean stock sector has been adjusting repeatedly, causing pessimism to spread in the market. Many retail investors see the market falling and instinctively think the storage boom is over and the rally has ended. But the real industry situation is not like that at all! Currently, global DRAM memory supply remains tight, a definite seller's market with scarce supply and rigid demand. The industry's fundamentals show no signs of weakening. Storage demand from AI servers and computing clusters is a sustained, long-term growth, not a short-term speculative boost. Traditional storage cycles were driven by mobile phones and consumer electronics like computers. After demand saturation, the cycle would quickly decline, leading to overcapacity and price crashes. But the core driver of this cycle has completely changed! The underlying logic of this upcycle is AI computing power expansion, driven by global digitalization and large model iterations, creating stable, continuous, and massive demand growth. This directly extends the entire storage industry's boom cycle. This is also why Goldman Sachs confidently states that Korean stocks are excessively sold off. The biggest problem in the market now is that everyone is using old cycle thinking to view the brand-new AI storage market. The capital is just taking a normal technical correction to digest valuations after the sector's previous large gains. This is not a fundamental collapse. Retail investors are misled by short-term K-line drops, causing excessive panic and resulting in the current mistaken sell-off. Finally, my practical stance is very clear: At this stage, I am not panicking to cut losses, nor blindly chasing gains with heavy positions. I firmly believe in the long-term prospects of the storage sector and see this correction as a mid-cycle dip opportunity, not the end of the rally. But short-term market sentiment has not stabilized yet, and volatility will continue, so there is no need to bet on an immediate reversal. The key to trading is to recognize the essence: What is falling is stock price sentiment; the industry cycle remains unchanged. Be patient for sentiment to recover and the trend to warm up again. The benefits of this ultra-long storage cycle will definitely be realized later. $SKHYNIX $SKHY AMD Earnings Review → SanDisk $SNDK Tonight's Prediction AMD beats expectations + strong guidance → falls 9% after hours Reason: Gross margin below expectations, good news already priced in Same logic for SanDisk tonight, bearish SanDisk earnings release tonight (early morning August 6 Beijing time) Expectations: Revenue $8.3B / EPS $34.24 Price has risen 32% from the low of 1123, expectations fully priced in Price going up means short. Above 1420, short short short, live in the palace #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ $AMD $SNDK $SNDK Tonight, SPCX will face the toughest battle since its listing—not a financial report, not a launch, but a lock-up expiration. There has never been such a large-scale IPO lock-up expiration in the history of the US stock market, nor a nine-stage stepped lock-up expiration. How this situation will be resolved will be revealed tonight. 911.5 million shares held by insiders will be unlocked. Based on the current stock price, this involves a market value exceeding $100 billion. The current float is only 639 million shares; after the lock-up expiration, the tradable shares will surge overnight to 1.55 billion shares. This is one of the largest IPO lock-up expirations in US stock market history. The supply side of the market will expand to more than 1.4 times the original level. The bigger problem is, this is just the beginning. By December this year, SPCX's tradable shares will jump from 639 million to 5.33 billion shares, an increase of more than seven times. Just over a month ago, the stock price was still $225; now it is $108, already halved. Short positions have soared from 23.3 million shares on June 16 to 219.3 million shares, accounting for 34% of the float, with a short scale of $24.6 billion, already surpassing Tesla. The head of research at S3 Partners bluntly said: "The current big bet revolves around the lock-up expiration; the market is betting that the financial report is insufficient to offset the impact of a large number of unlocked shares entering the market." Both bulls and bears have already taken their positions. On the day of the financial report, SPCX fell nearly 8%, and after-hours it dropped more than 4%. Revenue of $7.814 billion exceeded expectations, but capital expenditure was $18.4 billion, nearly 40% above analysts' expected $13.2 billion. But most people missed one piece of information—the 6.4 billion shares held by Musk are still locked until June 2027. He said on X: institutions shorting SpaceX "have a very low probability of long-term survival." If the selling pressure after tonight's lock-up expiration is lower than expected, the 34% short position itself is fuel for a short squeeze. The expectation of oversupply has already been priced in. If there is a deviation from expectations, which direction will it go? Tonight's lock-up expiration is the first real big test since SPCX's listing. The test is not about fundamentals, but everyone's prediction of the "liquidity shock." If insiders sell heavily, the stock price will be under pressure; if selling pressure is lower than expected, shorts may be squeezed. Either way, tonight SPCX will send a clear signal to the market. #SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 $SPCX $SPCX (SpaceX) Comprehensive Trend Analysis ⚠️ Information is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. This stock is highly volatile, with a peak unlocking period and high short positions, classified as a high-risk asset. The ATR reaches 7.99, and daily price swings of over ten dollars are normal. Current Status After listing, it sharply retraced from a high of $225 and has now fallen below the $135 IPO issue price; on August 6, the U.S. East Coast experienced a historic large-scale unlocking: 911.5 million shares unlocked, more than doubling the circulating shares. Multiple rounds of batch unlocks will continue from August to December, maintaining selling pressure. Short positions account for about 34% of the circulating free float before unlocking, with huge short positions and extremely fierce long-short battles; note: the percentage will passively decrease after unlocking, so focus on the total number of short shares rather than the short percentage. Financial reports show Starlink is profitable, but AI and Starship R&D capital expenditures are huge, resulting in overall continuous losses; the market is highly divided: some institutions are optimistic about the long-term space + AI story, while others believe the valuation is still too high. Key Technical Levels Strong support 1: $107-108, a recent important bottom and the lifeline for bulls; if volume-backed effective breakdown occurs, the next key support is in the $98-100 range. First resistance: $118, the first short-term hurdle; only with volume and a stable hold here will a recovery rally begin. Strong resistance: $132-135 (IPO issue price), a huge trapped position; this level is the bull-bear dividing line, and regaining it indicates a trend reversal upward. Technical indicators: daily chart is in a descending broad channel, all medium- and long-term moving averages are above the price; RSI is in a neutral to weak zone, no clear uptrend formed, with oscillation and high volatility as the main tone. Three Scenario Projections ① Base scenario (highest probability): wide oscillation between $108-132 After unlocking, insiders moderately sell but no panic dumping; shorts and bottom-fishing retail investors battle back and forth. Trapped positions above suppress the rise, while retail investors buy on dips below. Trigger conditions: no major positive or negative news, neutral Starship test flight, earnings guidance not significantly deviating from expectations. ② Optimistic scenario: rebound and challenge $132-135 Trigger conditions (at least one fulfilled): No large-scale insider selling after unlocking; total short shares significantly decrease, with short covering; Successful full orbital test flight of Starship; Management provides clear guidance on loss reduction and future cash flow improvement; Overall strength in the U.S. tech market, with significant institutional capital inflow. Note: even with a rebound, a large amount of trapped chips accumulate near $135, making a one-time breakthrough difficult. ③ Pessimistic scenario: break below $108, test $98-100 Trigger conditions: Large-scale original shareholder selling after unlocking, supply shock exceeds expectations; Starship test delayed or failed; Earnings call provides no loss reduction timetable, capital expenditures continue to exceed expectations; U.S. risk assets collectively pull back; Shorts continue to increase positions, with intraday short trade ratio remaining high. Core Driving Factors (Bullish / Bearish) ✅ Bullish Starlink business continues profitable growth, the company's core foundation; long-term space computing narrative has huge imagination space. High short positions mean if positive catalysts appear, there is potential for a short squeeze rebound. After unlocking, the circulating shares increase, allowing some ETFs and large institutions to enter and allocate. ❌ Bearish (current dominant pressure) Massive unlocking is the biggest short-term risk; shares will continue unlocking from August to December, keeping supply pressure overhead for a long time. AI and Starship burn cash heavily, with no overall profitability in the short term; if capital expenditures continue to exceed expectations, valuation will remain under pressure. Short positions are at extremely high levels; simultaneously, a large amount of trapped shares after IPO means every rally faces selling pressure from unlocking. Elon Musk's personal-related public opinion and statements can easily cause additional stock price disturbances. Key Practical Monitoring Signals Bullish confirmation signals Daily volume-backed hold above $118, closing without falling back below. Total short shares continuously decrease, intraday short trade ratio consistently drops below 45%. Unlocking data shows insider selling far below market expectations. Starship test flight is successful, management provides clear loss reduction guidance. Bearish confirmation signals Volume-backed close below $107-108 support. Large-scale original shareholder selling after unlocking, total short shares continue to increase. Multiple Starship delays/test failures; capital expenditures continue to rise. The U.S. stock market added $800 billion in just one day, with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high. The key driver was semiconductors. The question the market is asking is this: Can the increased risk appetite in U.S. stocks translate into relative strength for altcoins in the Korean crypto market? Let's clarify the facts. On June 26, the S&P 500 rose 1.02% to close at an all-time high, with market capitalization increasing by about $800 billion. Leading the gains were five semiconductor stocks, which together added approximately $178 billion in market cap. Micron rose 5.63%, AMD 6.34%, Intel 9.22%, Marvell 10.43%, and Sandisk 7.64%. This accounted for about 22% of the overall market's gains. The structural significance of this event is not just a stock market rally, but that the source of risk appetite lies not in defensive stocks or large tech companies, but in high-beta semiconductors. Semiconductors are highly sensitive to interest rates and respond immediately to global liquidity conditions. Their strength within the U.S. asset market is $BTC $ETH $SOL #Gold returns to $4200, why didn't BTC follow? #Italian major bank cuts IBIT common stock by 94%, increases ETH staking #Google AI senior management reshuffle, core talent loss draws attention Crypto community heads up! The 65,000 mark is within reach, and the core variable of this market trend surprisingly isn't within the crypto circle? Recently, those who have been watching the market closely must have sensed something different: Bitcoin quietly approaches the $65,000 mark, the stagnant sideways movement of nearly half a month suddenly ripples, and many early investors have already started checking their wallets to calculate profits. But have you noticed that the signal driving this rally isn't some native crypto positive news, but rather the latest statements from Trump across the ocean? A few days ago, he publicly discussed three things that directly hit the sentiment of global risk assets: the better-than-expected employment data temporarily dashed hopes of an immediate rate cut, the promise that inflation won't continue to surge gave the market some reassurance, and most explosively, he hinted at talks about the Hormuz Strait agreement—considering nearly one-third of global seaborne oil passes through there, if shipping volume stabilizes, the panic-driven oil price spike would largely dissipate. Many might not realize how this relates to Bitcoin? Here's the most straightforward logic: if oil prices skyrocket, inflation can't be contained, U.S. Treasury yields will definitely rise sharply, and the dollar will strengthen accordingly. Bitcoin, as a risk asset supported by loose liquidity, would have no momentum to surge. Conversely, if the strait situation stabilizes, oil prices stabilize or even slightly fall, inflation data can improve, and the Fed's room for future rate cuts opens up, with hot money flowing first into our crypto market. Stop focusing on spot ETF net inflows or institutional holdings data; the main market theme for the next half month is not within the crypto circle itself: every fluctuation in international oil prices will reflect on U.S. Treasury and dollar trends, ultimately concretely impacting Bitcoin's price movements. How intense is the battle at the 65,000 mark? Just look at the contract open interest repeatedly hitting new highs, and you'll understand—any external signal landing can trigger extreme moves like a big bullish candle or a sharp plunge. If you hold chips, don't recklessly trade T; if you're empty-handed, don't rush to bottom-fish. Recently, reading international news a bit more is more useful than looking at 100 candlestick charts. This round of the market shows that Bitcoin has truly transformed—it's no longer the niche speculative asset it once was within the circle, but now a major asset deeply linked with the global macro market. This kind of market movement linked with commodities and monetary policy has been seen by veteran crypto friends before, but newcomers really shouldn't miss it this time. Hold your chips and wait for signals; after this breakout, the next milestone might just be 70,000.$BTC is building a bottom in a "boring sideways" manner, but the final drop may not be over yet. According to the latest Glassnode report, Bitcoin is gradually entering the bottom-building phase. On July 31, the Coldcard incident resulted in about 594 BTC being stolen. In the following three days, the amount of Bitcoin that had not moved for over a year surged to about 119,000 BTC, but only about 10% flowed into exchanges, and there was no obvious panic selling in the market. This means long-term holders are mostly adjusting their positions rather than exiting en masse. Meanwhile, the **Seller Exhaustion** indicator has entered a historical bottom area. However, compared to the true final bottom of previous bear markets, there is still some distance, indicating that chip cleansing is ongoing but may not be fully completed yet. The real problem remains insufficient demand. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about 65,800 $BTC in June, marking the worst single-month record in history. Although enterprises continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, it still cannot fully make up for the shortfall in new funds. Without new incremental funds, even if selling pressure weakens, it is difficult to drive $BTC to quickly break out of the trend. The options market also signals caution. The implied volatility of call options has dropped to a historical low of about 23%, while put option volatility remains relatively stable, indicating the market is neither heavily betting on a surge nor actively hedging against a crash. Historically, prolonged volatility compression often leads to a directional breakout, but this round of the market still lacks the capital engine to sustain an upward trend. Currently, $BTC is still oscillating around $64,000. If it breaks out with volume and holds above $65,000, it is expected to further challenge $67,000–$68,000; if it falls below the key support area of $62,000–$63,000, a retest of $60,000 cannot be ruled out. Bottom conditions are gradually accumulating, but a true reversal still requires three key confirmations: • ETF funds flowing back in • Continuous volume expansion • Price effectively breaking through key resistance levels #CLARITYVoteMath, Senate divisions widen #DailyOrbit Brothers, let me fully review the entire logic behind my short position on SanDisk at 1466, the current holding status, and how to view this stock going forward. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Why did I dare to short at 1466? At that time, it surged to 1466, the market looked very hot, and everyone was hyping the AI storage super cycle, but all I saw was risk, with four core reasons: 1. The valuation had already priced in all the positives. The market directly compared SanDisk to Nvidia and gave it a high valuation, but essentially NAND flash is a strongly cyclical commodity; price increases are temporary, not a perpetual high-growth business. It rebounded quickly over 30% from a low point, with many retail investors chasing the rally, sentiment was completely overheated, and all optimistic AI storage stories were priced in. Once earnings guidance falls short of the ultra-high expectations, valuation correction is very likely. 2. Technicals reached a strong resistance and heavy trap zone. 1460-1480 is a dense chip lock-up zone from previous declines. The upper edge of the daily downtrend channel is in this range. Multiple attempts to break above failed to hold, making it a heavily pressured area. The cost of breaking upward is very high, and the risk-reward ratio for a pullback is unfavorable. 3. Pre-earnings expectation bubble poses big hidden risks. Before earnings were released, Wall Street consensus expectations had already hit the ceiling, with dozens of institutions almost all giving buy ratings and an average target price above 2000. In this situation, even if the earnings data looks good, as long as next quarter’s guidance slightly misses the market’s crazy imagination, it will trigger profit-taking and a sell-off. The worst thing for cyclical stocks is not poor earnings but overly inflated expectations. 4. Sector-level risks. The entire AI storage sector has surged sharply in the short term, with crowded market capital. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, putting pressure on high-valuation growth stocks overall. If sentiment in the US tech sector weakens, a highly volatile stock like SanDisk will experience a very sharp pullback. My entry: short at 1466, stop loss above 1510, first target 1350, second target 1280. Current status of the short position After entry, the intraday high nearly reached 1483, briefly testing my stop loss area. The shorts endured a short squeeze washout but did not hit the stop loss, then reversed downward. With earnings released, although this quarter’s revenue and profit exceeded expectations, next quarter’s revenue and gross margin guidance fell short of the optimistic consensus, directly triggering profit-taking and a price decline. The low hit around 1345, now the price is around 1350, and the short position has gained floating profits. I have not fully closed the position yet, retaining some base shorts, moving the stop loss down to 1430, turning this trade into a zero-risk position. Even if it rebounds again, I won’t lose principal, using the base position to bet on further downside. A frank note: this trade experienced a short squeeze, which was psychologically stressful. For highly volatile US stocks, position size must not be heavy; heavy positions are easily washed out by short-term volatility. Two scenarios for SanDisk’s future movement Scenario 1 (main scenario for my base position): rally then pullback, continuing correction Earnings guidance falling short will keep suppressing valuation. The 1420-1460 range becomes strong resistance. If a rebound tests this range and fails, it will continue downward. First support at 1300, further space opens toward the 1240-1280 previous platform. Catalysts: NAND price increase logic disproved, cloud vendors slow capital expenditure, overall risk appetite in US tech stocks declines. Scenario 2: bulls regain control and break upward The only case I will fully close the short is if volume surges and it stabilizes above 1480, effectively breaking the upper edge of the downtrend channel. This means the market completely ignores the negative guidance, and funds continue to wildly speculate on the AI storage story. Then this round of correction logic fails, and I must abandon the short idea, not stubbornly hold the short. Personal summary from Coin Brother community Shorting at 1466 was not because I think this company is fundamentally bad, but a valuation correction after the good news was fully priced in and expectations were too high. SanDisk genuinely has AI business growth and is not a pure junk stock, but the price was overextended at that time. AI storage demand is booming, but if companies can't sustain profits, the grand narrative becomes a harvesting machine Just saw SanDisk's earnings report: FY2026 Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, adjusted EPS was $39.25, both exceeding expectations, and they also initiated a $14 billion stock buyback. However, because the revenue guidance for the next quarter was slightly weak, the stock price fell directly after hours. What does this indicate? It shows the market is no longer satisfied with the impressive current data and is starting to question: how long can the AI-driven surge in storage demand be sustained? Why does the stock price fall after hours just because the next quarter's revenue guidance is slightly weak, even though the earnings beat expectations and the buyback is so aggressive? The core reason is that the market has diverging views on the sustainability of profitability for AI storage companies. Over the past year plus, tech giants have been extremely aggressive in capital expenditures (CapEx) on AI data centers, gobbling up enterprise SSDs and high-bandwidth memory. But the market now worries this procurement peak might be front-loaded; if these cloud giants' cloud service compute power doesn't convert into end-user paying profits, they will have to cut spending. For storage hardware vendors like SanDisk, if downstream demand growth slows, even if profits are good now, future performance growth will inevitably decelerate. I myself have suffered losses in the storage sector before; when the long cycle peaks and you exit a bit late, profits get completely wiped out. What core logic changes should investors focusing on hardware and semiconductor sectors expect in the future? We need to shift our focus from short-term shipment volumes to the companies' real pricing power and profit quality. The storage industry has always been a typical highly cyclical sector with great price elasticity. Although currently, due to the rigid demand for AI compute power, TrendForce data shows NAND flash capital expenditure in 2026 is still conservatively controlled around $22.2 billion, and Q3 contract prices are expected to rise 10% to 15% quarter-over-quarter, with some SLC NAND contract prices possibly surging 120% to 170% quarter-over-quarter in the second half. But manufacturers remain restrained in capacity expansion and aggressively repurchasing shares because they deeply understand the merciless nature of cycles. If AI application commercialization lags, this profitability maintained by high premiums cannot be sustained. So, in the upcoming market, which specific indicators should we focus on to confirm this turning point? Personally, I will focus on two core indicators. One is the capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance changes disclosed in quarterly earnings reports by hyperscale cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Meta, to see if there are signs of procurement slowdown. The other is the monthly updated enterprise SSD and NAND flash contract price trends from TrendForce, to see if the high premiums start to loosen. Data sources: SanDisk quarterly earnings, TrendForce industry reports, Bloomberg Terminal. The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Is Google starting to lose its AI top talents too? #谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注 Today I came across news about Google's AI senior management reshuffle and the loss of core talents. My first reaction wasn’t that AI is doomed, but that this field has become so competitive that even Google might not be able to retain its people. In the past, companies were busy competing over models, but now even researchers have become a resource fought over by the market. Having a few star figures in the team means a new story can be told outside immediately; once someone leaves, everyone starts guessing if there’s an internal strategic problem. This situation really looks a lot like the crypto world. We constantly complain that project teams rely on their backgrounds to hype things up, and the US AI market isn’t much different. Before real products and revenues fully emerge, the core team list is almost like half a financial report. I don’t think Google AI will fail just because a few people leave; the assets and cash are still there. But the continuous talent turnover and repeated organizational restructuring at least show it’s not as stable inside as outsiders think. The AI story can still be told, but in the future, just shouting about investment might not be enough. With so much money spent, sooner or later the market will seriously account for what has actually been left behind. #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元 Polymarket is about to take off! Brothers, a $20 billion valuation, $1 billion in funding! Last year the valuation was only $9 billion, and in just over half a year it has more than doubled. A prediction market platform with a valuation nearly catching up to second-tier public blockchains, can you believe it? Do you know what this means behind the scenes? Annualized revenue has already exceeded $1.2 billion, tripling! The US regulated exchange only officially opened in May, and now the daily trading volume has broken 100 million. With the World Cup coming, international platform trading volume has hit a historic high. This is not some vapor project; real money is flowing in. And look at who the investors are — the NYSE parent company ICE invested $600 million, top institutions like D.E. Shaw and G Squared are all in. Traditional financial giants are seriously treating prediction markets, not just playing around. But I have to pour cold water. The biggest problem for this company now isn’t whether it can make money, but that the whole world is against it. India banned it outright, Brazil banned it, France banned it, the UK banned it, even Ukraine banned it because it accepted bets on the war. More than thirty countries have blacklisted it, and every two or three months there are more. To put it bluntly, this "decentralized, permissionless" model is inherently at odds with sovereign regulations of various countries. It wants to enter Japan, targeting 2030, and will spend four years lobbying. Four years! In crypto, four years is enough to die three times over. I think Polymarket is indeed doing something very impressive — turning "crowd wisdom" into tradable financial products. But if it can’t get past regulatory hurdles, no matter how big the valuation is, it’s just a castle in the air. Anyway, for this kind of stock, I enjoy watching the excitement but don’t want to put money in. Wait until it sorts out its battles with governments before talking money. With a $20 billion market, the scythe is already sharpened, don’t rush in and become a chump.Thursday, 2026.08.06 The release of earnings reports and performance expectations once again impacted the US stock market. Yesterday, several companies' earnings data pushed down prices in the storage sector, but I think this is a normal phenomenon after a sharp rebound encountering resistance. However, gold moved against the trend and surged nearly 5%. Bitcoin also moved in tandem with gold and US stocks against the trend. Although the magnitude of the counter-trend movement is still weak, this is indeed a rare occurrence in recent months. On August 5, Bitcoin ETF net inflow was 244 million. Ethereum ETF net outflow was 60.8 million. BITMEX and bitMart have both shut down, which somewhat resembles the 2022 bear market scenario with the FTX collapse. In past bear markets, the last to be hit were exchanges, but in this bear market, I believe the key issue is shell companies. Currently, MicroStrategy has started to open the floodgates for selling coins, so even if prices fall, it is unlikely MicroStrategy will collapse because it can maintain operations by continuously selling coins. Ethereum shell companies can generate yield through staking. As long as there is no coin disaster, the likelihood of shell companies collapsing seems quite low. So, will history repeat itself remarkably? Is 60,000 really the bottom of this bear market? That depends on how long the market can consolidate at the bottom. Market Analysis Yesterday, Bitcoin rose against the trend in tandem with gold but ultimately did not surpass 65,000. The magnitude was still too small. Gold rose 5% yesterday, while Bitcoin was less than 1%. Today looks more like a catch-up rally. Whether the consolidation pattern can be broken depends on the next couple of days. Tomorrow's non-farm payroll data is also very important; it is an opportunity to break through the upper boundary. Patience is required. US tech stocks are indeed, as mentioned yesterday, a good opportunity to exit, but the decline will not continue indefinitely. The drop remains a good buying opportunity. The second test of support is at the bottom range of the last decline. Buying can be done around the bottom range, slightly elevated. Under Trump's administration, there is little logic for a major drop in US stocks, so there is no need to fear. Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 39 (Fear) 📊 Market Outlook & $ZEC/USDT Price Forecast Based on the daily chart, here’s a quick read on $ZEC/USDT. 🔹 Current Market Snapshot - Last Price: $524.39 (+3.49% today) - 24H Range: $484.32 – $525.23 - Moving Averages: • MA5: $493.23 • MA10: $480.39 • MA20: $501.87 - Supertrend (green): $435.91 🔹 Technical Analysis - $ZEC staged a strong rebound off the recent local low of $451.80, up +12.16% over the past 7 days. Momentum is clearly constructive. - Price trades comfortably above all key short-term MAs (MA5, MA10, MA20). The green Supertrend at $435.91 sits deep below as structural support, while the MA20 near $501.87 offers immediate short-term support. 🔹 Price Scenarios - Upside: With solid momentum and price holding above $500, $ZEC is positioned to challenge higher resistance zones around $550.00 – $588.88 (prior swing highs). - Downside: If broader market conditions cool and buyers lose steam, a modest pullback toward the $501.00 – $493.00 support cluster (near MA20/MA5) is possible before any renewed push. ⚠️ This is a market observation only, not investment advice. Do your own research.$SNDK SanDisk continues to be bearish!!!! SanDisk's earnings report and Western Digital's are both out, even far exceeding expectations! Clearly, all the news is positive! But SanDisk is indeed falling! Those who see through the logic know that the reason SanDisk dropped rapidly yesterday was firstly because it reached the short-term resistance at 1480, and secondly because the previous earnings data had been hyped too much beyond expectations. Even good earnings can't bring a bigger upside! Personally, I think the fundamentals of SanDisk and Western Digital are strong! But most people trading US stocks are trading based on future expectations! It's just that the market needs to digest profit-taking in the short term #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？ Don't rush to write off South Korean chip stocks just yet. Recently, the semiconductor sector has been on a steady decline, and many have started to say "the cycle is over." But on the other hand, Goldman Sachs believes this drop has gone a bit too far, and the market may be underestimating the duration of this round of memory market momentum. The key reason is that AI demand has not noticeably cooled down. HBM and DRAM remain in short supply, global new capacity release is limited, and the memory market is still controlled by sellers. So, the current market debate focuses on just one question: Is this an emotionally driven oversell, or the last rebound before the memory cycle peaks? What I care about more is not the short-term stock price fluctuations, but whether the fundamentals have changed. If AI continues to drive computing power demand, memory prices stay strong, and manufacturers' capacity expansion can't keep up, then this adjustment may not mean the end of the market; rather, it could be a re-pricing after digesting overly high expectations. What truly determines the next phase's trend remains demand, supply, and profitability—not market sentiment. Based on this judgment, I am more inclined to see this adjustment as an opportunity rather than a risk. The semiconductor industry itself is strongly cyclical, and market sentiment often changes faster than fundamentals. When the supply-demand pattern hasn't reversed, short-term pullbacks don't necessarily mean the industry has peaked. If memory supply continues to be tight in the future, I believe the first beneficiaries will still be memory chip companies. Price increases will directly improve profitability; subsequently, as capacity expansion starts, semiconductor equipment companies will also see order growth; later on, the entire AI industry chain will continue to benefit from stronger computing infrastructure. As for whether to participate in the semiconductor sector now, I won't rush to bottom-fish just because of continuous declines, nor will I completely exit due to market pessimism. I prefer to build positions gradually and wait patiently, letting time verify the logic. My judgment basis has always remained unchanged, focusing on three core variables: whether AI demand has slowed, whether memory supply and demand remain tight, and whether manufacturers' capacity expansion speed has started to exceed demand. As long as these three conditions have not changed significantly, I believe this adjustment is more like a re-pricing rather than the end of the semiconductor cycle. Not all altcoins will explode together, folks. The crypto market rarely operates as a unified block. In reality, liquidity usually concentrates on a small group of assets with clear narratives, while the majority just move sideways within a narrow range. 🎯 The current phase is driven by capital rotation rather than an all-out altcoin season. Smart investors are seeking projects with solid foundations: compelling development stories, good liquidity, active teams, and expanding adoption. Conversely, tokens lacking these factors may continue to decline or trade sideways, even if they occasionally experience brief spikes. ⚠️ The group attracting capital flow includes: $JTO, $JELLY, $BTC, $OPG, $BTCSLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP. Meanwhile, names showing weaker momentum include: $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA. And here’s a watchlist for potential opportunities ahead: $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS. 📊 This is the analysis framework I often use to read the market: 🟠 $BTC determines the overall trend and liquidity direction. 🔵 $ETH reflects the sentiment and positioning of large institutions. 🟣 $SOL measures risk appetite in the Layer 1 sector. 🤖 $TAO and $WLD help track the heat of the AI narrative. ⚡ $HYPE indicates the level of market speculation. 🐕 $DOGE and $ZEC sometimes serve as early signals for retail investor flows. A hard-learned lesson: when a token starts appearing heavily on social media, most of the easy gains are usually already in the hands of early movers. The real opportunity lies in tracking capital flows and on-chain activity before the story becomes mainstream. 🔍 My approach is very simple: observe where the capital is flowing, identify Currently characterized as a breakout driven by geopolitical easing and institutional capital inflows, 65,000 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. However, it is important to note: uncertainties remain in the US-Iran negotiations, rate hike expectations continue to rise, and the CLARITY Act faces obstacles—these three risks have not disappeared. The large-scale bearish pattern has not fundamentally reversed; it is more appropriate to view the current movement as a rebound rather than a reversal. $BTC $ETH $BICO #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch] Everyone is asking Pharaoh, with ADP only at 44,000, the Fed should be backing down now, right? Pharaoh directly says, the employment data is indeed cooling off, but the Fed's stance is much tougher than expected. It's not a question of "whether to raise rates" now, but "who has the final say." ADP added 44,000 jobs, far below the expected 70,000, and more than halved from last month's 98,000. The market's first reaction was a cooling of rate hike expectations, a weaker dollar, and Bitcoin bouncing back from around 62,000 to above 63,000. But as soon as the data came out, the Fed hawks jumped out to speak. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari directly advocated for "gradual rate hikes," saying his dissenting vote was not a joke. Kansas City Fed President George also said "further rate increases may be needed." Even more intense, three regional Fed presidents voted against at the July meeting, the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned. The divisions have been exposed openly. Treasury Secretary Yellen stepped in saying "no need to raise rates," but the internal hawks are not buying it. Fed Chair Powell refused to provide any forward guidance, leaving the market to guess. Former New York Fed President Dudley directly criticized, saying the rise in long-term bond yields indicates the Fed's credibility is declining. What does Pharaoh think? The cooling employment data is a fact, but the Fed is still fighting internally. Bitcoin will follow the data in the short term, but the medium-term direction depends on whether these hawks will really act before the September meeting. Pharaoh still says, good trades are waited for, not chased. Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $BICO #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ Family, Mi Ge breaks down Circle's earnings report for you, along with its real trump card—Arc. First, about the earnings report itself: it’s decent but the market isn’t buying it much. Q2 total revenue was $701 million, up 7% year-over-year, but below Wall Street’s expectation of $713 million. This is the second consecutive quarter of revenue missing expectations. Net profit was $48.21 million, much better than the huge loss in the same period last year. Key data: USDC circulating supply at the end of the period was $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year. However, it dropped about 4.8% from $77 billion at the end of Q1, and is also below the near $80 billion peak earlier this year. On-chain transaction volume in Q2 was $14.8 trillion, a staggering 151% year-over-year increase, with 7 million active wallets, up 24% year-over-year. Reserve yield dropped from 4.14% to 3.48%, so interest income is shrinking. After the earnings release, pre-market price briefly rose over 8%, then turned to a nearly 3% drop during the session. The stock has fallen about 20% year-to-date, with a market cap around $16 billion. The market sentiment is clear: the story of making money from interest income has reached its ceiling. Arc is the real trump card. Mainnet launched on September 16, with over 100 institutions and ecosystem builders already running on the private mainnet. The founding validator list is extremely high-profile: BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, Standard Chartered, Intercontinental Exchange, Western Union, Galaxy, SBI Group, Sumitomo Corporation, Global Payments. Specific collaborations are already in place: BlackRock plans to deploy the BUIDL fund on Arc. DTCC will tokenize DTC custodial assets on Arc starting in the second half of 2027. BNY Mellon and Standard Chartered are also exploring digital asset custody, FX, and repo infrastructure integration. On launch day, the ecosystem lineup includes DeFi protocols like Aave, Uniswap, Morpho; wallet providers such as Binance Wallet, MetaMask, Ledger; and payment service providers like Rain and Thunes will all connect. ARC token raised $222 million in a May presale, led by a16z with $75 million, with participation from BlackRock, Apollo, ICE, and others. The company has significantly raised its full-year other income guidance from $150 million to $310–330 million, mainly from Arc token presale revenue. $BTC $ETH Mi Ge’s take: What Circle is doing now is completely different from Tether’s path. While Tether is still earning interest from U.S. Treasuries, Circle has started building institutional financial infrastructure. Having names like BlackRock, Visa, and DTCC together on a blockchain project’s validator list is unprecedented in crypto history. Arc’s risks are also clear. Stablecoins are still a business relying on interest income. Whether Arc can really take off and whether institutions will actually use it remain unknown. The gap between technical implementation and commercialization is longer than expected. But if this move succeeds, Circle will no longer be just a stablecoin issuer; it will be the bridge between traditional finance and the crypto world. The mainnet launches on September 16—let’s see the real results then. What do you think? Can Arc change the stablecoin landscape? Share your judgment in the comments.#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 SanDisk's latest earnings report is actually quite interesting. The data looks very good, with revenue of $8.97 billion exceeding expectations, EPS significantly above market forecasts, and the company also announced an additional $14 billion buyback authorization. But as everyone saw, the stock price fell after hours. Many people's first reaction might be: "The good news has been priced in, it can't go up anymore." But my understanding is not entirely the same. I think this is more like the market entering a new phase: previously, when people bought into the AI industry chain, they looked at "whether there is AI demand"; now, people are looking at "whether AI demand can really support the current valuation." This change is crucial. Because the AI storage story itself is not over. In recent years, the biggest change in AI has been the explosion of computing power demand, and behind computing power is storage. Models are getting bigger, data is increasing, inference scenarios are becoming richer, and servers and data centers' demand for high-performance storage will only increase. Simply put, the faster AI develops, the larger the data processing volume, and the more important storage becomes. But problems also arise. The market never rewards trends alone; it rewards outperformance. SanDisk's earnings report this time has proven one thing: AI storage demand does exist. But what the market wants to know now is the second thing: how long can this growth last? If in the future profits are only driven by rising storage prices, then this cycle might resemble traditional semiconductor trends, where profits explode during price hikes and return after supply-demand changes. But if AI brings real long-term data growth and infrastructure upgrades, then the valuation logic of the storage industry might change. So now when I look at the storage sector, the focus is not on how much a company earned this quarter, but on three things: First, whether AI customers' orders are continuously increasing; Second, whether storage price increases come from real demand rather than short-term supply adjustments; Third, whether the company can turn revenue growth into stable profits. Many people like to look for opportunities when the market is hottest because that's when the story sounds best. But an interesting point in investing is that truly good opportunities often don't appear when everyone believes, but when everyone starts to hesitate. SanDisk's earnings beat expectations but the stock price fell, I actually see this as a reminder: The direction of AI storage may be correct, but the way to make money in the future will change. The next competition won't be about who can ride the AI concept, but who can continuously generate profits in the AI infrastructure wave. The trend remains, but valuations won't always pay for sentiment. $SNDK Many traders are currently caught in a typical cognitive bias: mistakenly believing that all altcoins will experience a collective surge. However, the signals from the current market indicate the opposite; the market will not see a broad altcoin bull run. Essentially, this is a genuine liquidity rotation event. $LAB 🟢 Coins where liquidity is gathering: $JTO, $JELLYJELLY, $BTC, $OPG, $BTCSLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP 🔴 Coins where liquidity is withdrawing: $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA 👀 My personal key watchlist: $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS The macro landscape remains stable, and the core logic has not changed: 👑 $BTC continues to firmly hold the throne of liquidity, serving as the most important pricing anchor across the entire market. 🏛️ $ETH is attracting a large influx of institutional capital, continuously reinforcing its status as the "orthodox" crypto asset. ⚡ $SOL is the preferred high-volatility Layer 1 for traders, where speed and sentiment collide.Gold returns to $4200, the core reason for Bitcoin's disconnected rise: First, the rising funds are not from a single group. Gold's breakthrough above $4200 was mainly due to central banks and traditional safe-haven funds increasing their positions. Coupled with weakening US employment data, the market bet on the Fed pausing rate hikes, the appeal of interest-free gold surged, and a large influx of Asian gold ETF funds to support the price. $ETH Bitcoin is now more regarded as a high-volatility risk asset, tied to the performance of US tech stocks. Safe-haven funds do not enter the crypto market, and on-exchange funds only rotate back and forth, with no new large inflows. $BTC Second, the two have diverged in safe-haven attributes. Middle East negotiations have been repeated, geopolitical uncertainties remain, and funds prioritize using physical gold, which has been passed down for thousands of years, as a safety cushion. Although Bitcoin is called digital gold, when faced with uncertainty, it is often sold as a speculative chip and is far less recognized as a safe-haven currency. $XAUT BTC also lacks independent positive support. Gold is expected to cut rates, and central banks continue to stockpile gold, which is a dual positive factor; On Bitcoin, the U.S. crypto bill remains deadlocked, spot ETF inflows are intermittent, and there's no substantial positive stimulus. Even if macro liquidity eases, funds will first flow into the stock market and gold, leaving the crypto market to fluctuate and unable to rally in tandem. #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? Overall, gold has risen above $4,200, benefiting from rate cut expectations and central bank gold hoarding, making it a traditional safe-haven capital entry. Bitcoin is now more focused on risk assets, with more linked capital #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ $CRCL To be honest, Circle's launch of Arc this time shows very clear ambition. Looking at the financial report alone, revenue reached $701 million, a 7% increase, but USDC's circulating supply at the end of the quarter retreated to $73.3 billion, down nearly 5%. This indicates that relying solely on reserve interest and competition within the crypto space, growth has hit a ceiling. In retail and offshore markets, USDT's stickiness remains hard to shake. So Circle's bet on Arc essentially aims to break out of the crypto circle's internal competition and grab a piece of the traditional finance pie. 🪁 What exactly is Arc for? You can tell from the list of validators: giants like BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, and Mastercard are all involved. Arc is not a public chain for speculating on Meme coins; it is a compliance and high-speed clearing highway tailored by Circle specifically for traditional institutions. By moving BlackRock's funds and DTCC-custodied assets onto the chain, institutions' biggest fears—compliance loopholes and network uncontrollability—are addressed. Arc uses large institutions as node endorsers and positions USDC as the native settlement asset, directly integrating into the core of traditional financial infrastructure. 🪁 Can USDC experience an explosion in growth? My prediction is a gentle rise in the short term, with qualitative change in the medium to long term. ▶️ In the short term, even with the public launch on September 16, USDC cannot skyrocket overnight. Traditional institutions require several quarters for compliance audits and system integration. ▶️ But in the medium to long term, this is USDC's biggest trump card to surpass USDT. Previously, USDC fluctuated with crypto market cycles; if Arc successfully runs RWA, cross-border payments, and forex clearing, it will tap into trillions of dollars in traditional dormant capital. At that point, USDC will become the infrastructure of institutional finance, with very stable and massive traffic. 🤔 Key points and risks ahead The focus will be on two things: the actual scale of asset migration by institutions like BlackRock after launch, and how Arc balances permissioned nodes with decentralization. The biggest risk is that this semi-closed network controlled by Wall Street giants, if lacking sufficient openness, may fail to attract native DeFi ecosystems and easily become a high-level intranet for large institutions' self-entertainment. As long as Circle can strike the right balance between compliance and openness, Arc can definitely bring a second growth curve to USDC and even change the competitive landscape of stablecoins. Not investment advice DYOR 闪迪财报发布后，股价盘后一度跌近一成。有意思的是，这份财报很难用“差”来形容。第四财季收入达到89.7亿美元，环比增长51%，同比增长372%。非GAAP每股收益为39.25美元，毛利率达到84.6%。数据中心收入约29.8亿美元，环比又翻了一倍。公司还把下一季度收入指引给到103亿至108亿美元，并追加140亿美元回购授权。数字几乎全是绿色，股价先给了一根阴线。昨天的文章里，我写过一句话。闪迪的经营状态比股价状态更好，市场对这场财报的容错率已经很低。业绩只要无法继续抬高投资者心里的那条线，获利盘就可能先走。今天盘后的走势把这层关系摆到了台面上。市场早已知道NAND在涨价，也知道AI数据中心正在抢存储，更知道闪迪这一季会大幅增长。财报前的资金已经把目标抬得很高，等着公司给出一个远高于现有预期的答案。公司交出了强劲业绩，下一季度指引却没有把最激进的想象继续往上推，盘前押注财报大涨的资金便开始撤退。这也印证了昨天的分析框架。基本面向上，只能说明公司正在挣钱。股价处在重估后的高波动区间，还要看预期跑到了多远。预期跑得太快，优秀财报也可能变成兑现节点。我对闪迪经营面的判断没有转空。#Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元 Prediction markets may be becoming the next hot spot to watch in the crypto industry. Polymarket is reportedly seeking about $1 billion in a new funding round, targeting a valuation exceeding $20 billion. This indicates that capital is no longer just interested in a single company, but in the development potential of the entire prediction market sector. In the past, crypto users mostly traded assets like BTC and ETH; now, more and more people are trading "the events themselves." From Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, U.S. elections, to sports events and AI development, wherever there is disagreement, there is trading demand. As a result, prediction markets have evolved from a niche application into a new traffic entry point in the crypto ecosystem. I believe that if prediction markets can continuously attract users and capital, they are very likely to become a new growth point in the crypto industry. Compared to traditional trading, prediction markets have a lower participation threshold; you don’t need to study complex candlestick charts or watch coin prices—just having your own judgment on an event allows you to participate. This is also why it easily attracts ordinary users. However, the real competition is just beginning. With platforms like Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, and others entering the space, prediction markets are competing not only on product experience but also on liquidity, user scale, and compliance capabilities. Whoever can build a more complete ecosystem will have a better chance of becoming the industry leader. For me, the most attractive aspect of prediction markets is not entertainment but informational value. Market prices often reflect public expectations in advance and often release signals faster than the news. It is both a trading market and an important window to observe market sentiment. Therefore, my focus is not on whether Polymarket’s current funding round will succeed, but on whether prediction markets can truly go mainstream and become the crypto industry’s new long-term growth engine following DeFi. The ones who pushed the price sky-high were exactly those betting it would fall. At 6:55 this morning, most people were still asleep. On Hyperliquid, a meme coin called CASHCAT took less than sixty seconds to surge from $0.10958 to $0.18853, a 72% increase in one minute. From the morning low of $0.0846, the maximum rebound was 122.8%, with the market cap at the peak around $189 million. The interesting part isn’t the increase itself, but who bought it. In that one minute, 34.777 million CASHCAT tokens were traded, with the largest five short positions forcibly liquidated about 13.1 million tokens, accounting for 37.7% of that minute’s volume. In other words, the biggest buying force pushing the price up wasn’t bullish investors, but shorts forced to cover. In the next minute, another 2.234 million short tokens were liquidated. Within two minutes, five addresses were liquidated for a total of 15.334 million tokens, with a transaction value of about $2.249 million and losses around $1.273 million. Looking at each address reveals a small story. The one starting with 0xa037 lost about $446,000, leaving only 12,000 tokens after liquidation. The 0x9a5c address was even more wiped out, with equity reduced to zero. 0x4f67 lost $308,000, briefly shorted again, then exited completely. The most stubborn was 0x3f97, who lost $232,000, was liquidated, and 19 seconds later reopened a short position, even adding $25,000 from a sub-account called cashcat sub. Nineteen seconds—no time even to catch a breath. Another strategy vault named Short the Shit lost $134,000 and still holds a small short position. Why was this spike so steep? Because the normal order book couldn’t absorb so many forced liquidations. Of all liquidated positions, 8.817 million tokens (57.5%) were taken over by the backup liquidation mechanism. Insufficient depth forced shorts to buy back, pushing the price higher, which triggered the next batch of liquidations, more buybacks, and further price increases. It was a vicious cycle, stepping on each other’s heels, pushing the price up. After the short squeeze ended, the script immediately reversed. CASHCAT now trades at $0.12129, down 35.7% from the peak but still up 38.2% in 24 hours. The hourly funding rate rose to +0.0658%, accumulating about +0.5389% over the past 24 hours, nearly eight times the previous rate. To translate: the shorts who were just squeezed out are now making the longs pay. The background can’t be ignored either. CASHCAT is on the Robinhood chain, which is currently fighting a battle for issuance platforms. Uniswap launched its own launchpad pools.trade last night, with first-day volume exceeding $150 million. On the Robinhood chain, Uniswap V4’s volume briefly surpassed that of the Ethereum mainnet. Amid all this excitement, the flip side is extreme liquidity thinness and heavy leverage, as seen this morning. I’ve always thought the most ironic thing about meme coins is this: you think you’re battling the market, but often you’re actually battling the person next door who’s on the opposite side and even less able to hold on than you. Whoever gets squeezed out first becomes fuel for the other side. So here’s the question: that guy who reopened a short position just 19 seconds after being liquidated—do you think he really understood something, or was he just stubborn?Why did $SNDK fall despite positive earnings? This is probably a question everyone is very puzzled about. First, Nan Nan will take everyone through some key data: revenue of about $8.97 billion, higher than market expectations; ESP of about $39.25, also slightly exceeding expectations; data center and AI-related storage demand continues to grow; gross margin of 84.6%; data center business revenue of about $2.98 billion, showing significant year-over-year growth; overall earnings far exceeded market expectations. From a fundamental perspective, it is indeed not bad, even somewhat strong, but the problem is—before the earnings report, the stock price had already experienced a significant rise, and institutions had already priced in "future growth." So when the earnings landed, funds chose to take profits, turning good news into bad news. Those holding short positions can take profits now. At the current level, a large amount of capital is entering to bottom-fish, and a short-term rebound is highly likely! #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：Mixed earnings results, lock-up expiration approaching! What’s next for SpaceX? I’m Brother Ci, the core signals of earnings season have already emerged. Earnings beating expectations doesn’t necessarily mean a rise; guidance below expectations definitely means a drop. The market is shifting from "looking at the past" to "looking at the future." Four outcomes from reports released on the same day Palantir’s revenue grew 93% and it raised its full-year guidance, rising nearly 30% after hours as the market pays for "future expectations that can still be revised upward." AMD’s revenue beat expectations and its data center business doubled, but guidance did not further exceed expectations, falling over 8% after hours as the market says "not good enough is bad." SanDisk’s EPS of $39.25 beat expectations, but Q1 guidance midpoint of 10.55 billion was below the expected 10.82 billion, falling over 11% after hours as the market prices in a "future that’s not dazzling enough." SpaceX’s earnings beat expectations, but high capital expenditures combined with the approaching lock-up expiration caused it to turn down after hours. Conclusion Palantir rose because its guidance can continue to be revised upward; AMD and SanDisk fell because valuations have already priced in high growth expectations, so any guidance below expectations triggers a correction. SpaceX fell due to high capital expenditures, with the market worried about the burn rate. Currently, the market is giving a premium to "future expectations that can still be revised upward" and a discount to "high growth that has been realized but is hard to exceed expectations again." What does the short position on SanDisk mean? The logic behind the 1337.26 short position is being validated by the overall trend of earnings season. SanDisk’s earnings beat expectations but guidance fell short, and the market has already delivered a verdict with an 11% drop. Negative sentiment in the storage sector is still spreading; Western Digital fell over 11%, SK Hynix nearly 10%, and the short-term bearish trend is very likely to continue. What to do next Move the stop loss down to 1320, take profits in batches targeting 1200 to 1220 and 1150 to 1160. If the price rebounds to the 1280 to 1300 range but volume shrinks and the rise stalls, add to the short position. Exit if volume breaks above 1320. Negative sentiment from guidance below expectations needs time to be digested; the emotional contagion in the storage sector is not over yet. Brother Ci is done speaking. Think it over carefully. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $SKHYNIX fell again in Japan and South Korea, and the storage chip sector faces pressure again tonight📉 The positive effects brought by the earnings reports have basically been priced in by the market in advance. The previous rise was more about speculating on expectations. Now that the positive news has been realized, short-term funds are starting to diverge. If the previous rally was only to attract chasing funds, then be cautious of the risk of a high-level pullback. $SNDK, $MU, SKHYNIX are very critical in tonight's market. Bulls should not blindly chase highs, pay attention to risks, and prevent a sharp rise followed by a fall🔥 Judging from SanDisk's current market, the trend shows a brief sign of bottoming out, but it is not yet the absolute time to bottom-fish. The overall trend remains bearish. Personally, intraday operations lean more towards shorting on rebounds. You can continue to short near 1300, with targets around the 1230-1200 range. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 The better the earnings, the harder the fall—Wall Street's moves are thoroughly dissected by Lao Mo Brothers, last night the US stock earnings season staged an absurd drama. SanDisk's revenue surged 372%, EPS multiplied 135 times, yet it fell 8% after hours. SpaceX's revenue exceeded expectations by $1 billion, AI revenue tripled, but the stock price crashed 13%. AMD beat expectations with data center revenue doubling, yet it still dropped 7%. The better the performance, the harder the fall—this isn't a fundamental problem, it's a big issue with expectation management. Let's start with SanDisk. The data is flawless; the killer is the guidance. Revenue was 8.97 billion, a 372% year-over-year surge, beating market expectations of 8.394 billion. GAAP net profit was 6.903 billion, non-GAAP adjusted EPS $39.25—compared to only $0.29 in the same period last year. Gross margin was 84.6%, up 3.2 times from 26.4% a year ago. Data center revenue was 2.98 billion, doubling quarter-over-quarter and soaring 1298% year-over-year. Edge computing was 5.43 billion, up 392% year-over-year. Full-year revenue was 20.25 billion, up 175%. They also approved a $14 billion buyback, with $15.5 billion remaining in authorization. At current market value, this could repurchase about 6.6% of the float. Then it fell 8% after hours. Why? The guidance didn't beat the market's imagination. For fiscal 2027 Q1, revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, midpoint 10.55 billion. Wall Street expected 11.16 billion. EPS guidance is $44-$46, market expected $45.58. Gross margin guidance is 83%-85%, nearly flat with Q4's 84.6%. The market wants "shock," you gave "very good"—not enough. But Lao Mo says fairly: it's not that sales can't be made, it's that production can't meet demand. SanDisk said on the call that over half of fiscal 2027 capacity is locked in by long-term contracts, and about two-thirds of fiscal 2028 is also secured. Signed long-term contract minimum revenue scale is $93.9 billion. Capacity is maxed out, not demand gone. But Wall Street ignores this; a $300 million shortfall in guidance is enough to punish. Next, SpaceX. The earnings are impressive, but the unlock is the real blade. Revenue was 7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, beating expectations by about $1 billion. AI revenue was 2.56 billion, more than tripling quarter-over-quarter. Net loss narrowed from 1 billion to 540 million. Then the stock dropped 13%, wiping out 225 billion in market cap. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has fallen nearly 50% from its high. Two reasons: capital expenditure exploded, and the unlock arrived. Q2 capital expenditure was 18.4 billion, a 5-fold year-over-year increase, including 15.8 billion related to AI, a 20-fold surge. The burn rate is more than twice the earning speed. CFO said Q3 and Q4 will maintain this pace. Today (August 6), 911.5 million restricted shares unlock. Equivalent to 1.4 times the existing float, valued over 100 billion at $110 per share. Short positions account for 34% of the float, nominal value 24.6 billion. These players started positioning in June, with huge unrealized gains and are still adding. Good or bad earnings have to take a backseat to this supply shock. Back to the market. The Dow rose 0.49% to 54,349, marking five consecutive gains and a new high. But the Nasdaq fell 0.83%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.17%. BTC latest price is about 64,600-65,000, trading in the 63,800-65,000 range over 24 hours. ETH is at 1905. Bitcoin did not fall with the US tech stocks—indicating that the macro logic of easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices, and declining US bond yields temporarily outweighs the tech earnings negative impact. Lao Mo offers some trading advice. For brothers stuck in SanDisk: 1226-1250 is short-term support; hold it and wait for a rebound to 1310-1320 to reduce positions. If it breaks below 1226 with volume, cut losses. The $14 billion buyback is not just for show, but don't bet your life on it. For those empty-handed wanting to enter SanDisk: wait for 1226-1250 to stabilize on low volume before acting, stop loss below 1200, target 1310-1320. Or wait for the price to climb back above 1310 before chasing on the right side. For Bitcoin: 64,000-64,200 has become support. Buy on a pullback to this area if it stabilizes, stop loss below 63,800, target 65,000-65,500. 65,000 is the touchstone; if it passes, the rally may restart; if not, it will continue to consolidate. Lao Mo's final word: This earnings season teaches us one thing—good earnings don't equal stock price gains; expectation management is more important than earnings themselves. The problem with SanDisk and SpaceX isn't the companies, but that the market's imagination of "infinite growth" has become unreasonable. You gave very good, but it wants unimaginable. But the mid-to-long-term logic remains unchanged—AI storage shortage until 2027, eight long-term contracts locking in $93.9 billion revenue, HBF new standards just implemented. Short-term volatility is emotion; long-term trend depends on supply and demand. Are you bottom-fishing or waiting on SanDisk and SpaceX this round? Discuss in the comments. If you think Lao Mo's analysis is clear, give a like and follow; I'll alert you immediately when key levels are reached. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 I am the mid-term intelligence guy, just saw the 4-hour K-line of $BICO. Latest price 0.02810, a 24-hour surge of 21.5%, new coin ranks third in the Layer1&2 track, the heat is explosive! EMA5/10/20 shows a bullish alignment, volume VOL(BICO) 827M, USDT 24.7M, MACD red bars expanding, KDJ is near overbought but the trend hasn't reversed. However, after reaching a 24h high of 0.03185, it pulled back, an S signal appeared, short-term correction may occur, but looking at the moving average support (EMA5 0.02723), it still holds. As long as it doesn't break down, I continue to be bullish on this new coin wave and trade the swings, closely watching the breakout direction of the 0.02400-0.03185 range! #VolatilityRadar: Coin anomaly observation

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