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Everyone's focused on the unlock. But the bigger question is: how much of that risk is already priced in?
For traders short $SPCX, the 100 level is the key support to watch.
From 110, that would require roughly another 9–10% decline.
Yes, IPO unlocks often bring selling pressure as early investors gain liquidity. But history also shows that unlocks don't automatically trigger a prolonged downtrend.
Here's the context:
- The stock has already fallen 15.4%, from 130 to 110.
- After a two-day rebound, earnings pushed it briefly higher before sellers took control and drove it sharply lower with almost no meaningful bounce.
- That's an aggressive move, and markets rarely move in a straight line forever.
Could there be more selling tonight? Absolutely.
But unless the selling accelerates significantly, much of the near-term pressure may already be reflected in the price. If the fundamentals remain intact and institutional demand or index-related buying emerges, buyers are likely to step back in.
The unlock is a catalyst—but it's not the whole story.
#Earnings #IPO #Unlock #Stocks #Trading
#DailyOrbit On the day of the unlock, shorts quietly cover while longs remain buried 14 points below
Today is the day the first batch of SpaceX shares are unlocked. The portion available for sale accounts for about 12% of the total shares, which translates to approximately 1.43 times the public float after the IPO. Theoretically, the amount that can be dumped today is 40% more than what was originally available on the market.
Interestingly, on-chain, the group that previously took the hardest hit is now starting to buy back.
The largest SPCX order on Hyperliquid currently comes from a short who has already made a profit. He placed a 12.5-hour sell-to-buy reduction order, planning to cover 12,900 short positions, corresponding to about $1.429 million. As of the time of this report, 6,711 of these orders have been filled, just over half completed, pocketing $57,000.
On one side, the negative impact of the unlock officially lands; on the other, the largest short is retreating in batches on the unlock day. This scene itself is quite contradictory.
Overall positions are also shrinking. The open interest value of SPCX contracts has dropped $24.23 million from the August 4 peak, now standing at $189 million, a decline of 11.4%. Some are reducing positions, and by quite a bit.
But not everyone is running. An address starting with 0x6807 has increased its short positions by 66,000 in the past 24 hours, now holding $8.26 million in shorts, with an average entry price of $111.04 and a liquidation price of $118.18. This holder also left a backup plan, placing layered sell-to-buy reduction orders from $27 up to $107 below the current price, totaling $5.259 million, preparing to gradually buy back 90% of the position.
What really puzzles people is the long side. New long capital basically hasn’t acted near the current price; three addresses placed 278 buy orders between $83.8 and $107.05, preparing to invest a total of $16.985 million, with a weighted average order price around $95.28, about 14% below the current price.
In plain language, it means those wanting to buy aren’t short of money—they just think it’s not cheap enough yet.
The balance of top holdings is also skewed. Among the top 30 addresses, short positions exceed longs by $26.467 million; top shorts have an unrealized profit of $11.617 million, while longs have an unrealized loss of $4.313 million. The 24-hour cumulative funding rate’s negative value has expanded nearly 19 times, keeping the cost of holding short positions very low.
Looking back a bit, Elon Musk recently said shorts borrowed 95% of the circulating shares and added that he warned them, but they increased their bets instead. Now that the unlock has really arrived, the first to act are the shorts buying back.
On our side, it’s unusually quiet. Bitcoin is still hovering around 64,000, volatility remains low, while storage stocks next door are in pre-market deep red—Western Digital down over 16%, SanDisk down over 11%—but on-chain it’s like nothing happened.
So the question arises: are shorts covering early because they judge the bad news is fully priced in, or simply to lock in profits? Are those $16.985 million buy orders buried 14% below the current price a sign of smart money’s patience, or do they really think there’s further downside? What’s your take on the direction at tonight’s open? #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ Precious metals have been rallying for several consecutive days. This morning, spot gold surged to 4300 at one point, silver broke above $62, and COMEX futures were even more extreme, reaching a high of 4267 with a single-day gain of over 3%.
The trigger was the ADP small nonfarm payroll report—U.S. private sector employment in July increased by only 44,000, while expectations were between 65,000 and 75,000, a huge miss. As soon as the data collapsed, the market immediately traded on "no hope for a rate hike," the dollar weakened, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and gold and silver took off.
Looking at Bitcoin, it’s still stuck around 64,000, with gains under 1%, basically treading water.
This is quite awkward: constantly touted as "digital gold," yet when real gold and silver rise 3%, you can’t even get 1%—does this "gold" really have the right quality?
In fact, in the first half of last year, BTC and gold were barely in sync, but this year they have gone their separate ways and are even negatively correlated. Gold has risen nearly 9% year-to-date, while BTC has dropped more than 10%. Even analysts at Deutsche Bank say it "is no longer digital gold," and Peter Schiff bluntly believes the correlation between the two is completely forced.
Harsh words, but candlestick charts don’t lie.
So what exactly is BTC watching? The U.S. stock market? The S&P and Nasdaq are at new highs, but BTC hasn’t followed. ETFs? On Tuesday, there was a net inflow of over $200 million, yet the price remained unchanged. Geopolitical easing and progress in U.S.-Iran talks? No reaction either.
Right now, Bitcoin is stuck around 64,000, unable to break down or rally up, consolidating while waiting for a real catalyst—maybe an actual rate cut, a major regulatory announcement, or a move by a big player. But clearly, that catalyst is not "gold rising."
My personal judgment is that the "digital gold" narrative will become increasingly untenable by 2026. It’s not that Bitcoin itself lacks value, but its pricing logic has long diverged from gold. Gold trades on interest rate expectations and safe-haven demand, while BTC may trade on liquidity, regulatory expectations, or its own independent cycles.
So next time someone tells you BTC is digital gold, just show them yesterday’s price chart.
The answer is simple: when gold surges 3%, Bitcoin is sleeping at 64,000.
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Core logic: Unemployment data itself does not directly affect coin prices; it changes market expectations for Fed rate cuts, drives up the dollar and Treasury yields, and indirectly passes on risk assets like BTC/ETH. Two scenarios 1. Initial jobless claims > expectations (more jobless claims, weaker employment) Market trading: Economic weakness → rising probability of Fed rate cuts→ weaker US dollar, falling US Treasury yields, and expected liquidity easing are short-term positive for crypto risk assets, making BTC prone to surging. ⚠️ Extreme and sharp rises (recession fears) trigger widespread risk aversion, causing cryptocurrencies to fall along with US stocks. 2. Initial jobless claims < expectations (fewer claims, strong employment) Market trading: strong employment resilience, inflation difficult to quickly rebound→ delayed rate cuts, longer high interest rates, a stronger US dollar, suppressing risk assets, and short-term crypto pressure and pullback. 3. Data and expectations basically match Major volatility is unlikely to occur, and crypto continues its original technical and news trends. Key Practical Points 1. Depends on the magnitude of the deviation; small deviations have limited impact; Only a significant exceedation of expectations will trigger short-term insertion or rapid price swings. 2. Prioritize looking at the four-week moving average to filter out weekly seasonal disturbances. Weekly data noise is high, so do not judge based solely on them. 3. Current environment: 2026 is in a rate-cutting game, with employment data serving as an important reference for the Fed; Cryptocurrencies and US stocks are highly correlated, and unemployment claims often fluctuate in sync with BTC and US stocks. 4. Continuing unemployment benefits (the number of people continuously receiving benefits) is also crucial: continued claims continue to rise, meaning layoffs will be repeatedGold $XAU returns to $4200, why hasn't Bitcoin moved?
Recently, gold has climbed back above $4200, reaching around $4270 at one point, marking a nearly seven-week high. This rise is mainly due to a weaker dollar, falling US Treasury yields, and the market betting that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further, leading funds to flow back into safe-haven assets.
However, many have noticed that while gold has risen, Bitcoin has not surged along with it.
I think the reason is not complicated. Bitcoin today is no longer simply "digital gold" as it used to be. Since the launch of spot ETFs, more and more institutions view BTC as a risk asset, making its price movement more influenced by the US stock market, AI concept stocks, and market risk appetite, whereas gold is still primarily driven by safe-haven funds.
Of course, many institutions also believe that gold and Bitcoin are not decoupled but have a time lag. In past market cycles, gold often starts to move first, and after risk appetite recovers, Bitcoin begins to take over. If this pattern repeats, BTC's subsequent performance is still worth watching.
$BTC $SNDK
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ A comment on a news flash that is easily misread. Samsung and SK Hynix's stock prices have plummeted these days, causing a market uproar: is it a peak, or a mistaken sell-off? Goldman Sachs' judgment is quite firm—HBM is expected to double at most next year, and Hynix is about to announce a buyback plan soon. On one hand, the stock price has dropped sharply; on the other, institutions are calling for price increases and the leader is preparing a buyback to support the price. This divergence itself is information. My interpretation is: the pit caused by emotional selling and the pit caused by weakening fundamentals are two different things; don't confuse them. The narrative around storage is not over yet; a pullback does not mean the logic is broken. Those who understand know, the real issue is never "whether it fell," but "why it fell."#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck $ACT blew up last year; the founder cashed out and ran away. It’s involved in AI and meme sectors.
The reason it might become popular is due to AI and 16z’s explosive growth. The spot is on the watchlist (I’ve been monitoring the watchlist recently; others are all rising except ACT hasn’t yet, so I can set up a long position).
It’s been a year since the last blowup; early chips have been cleaned out. It has become a CTO-led project (the founder ran away, and the community took over).
Toad and frog are already rising (AI meme).
The daily trend is showing signs of recovery with increased volume and breakout signals. As long as the watchlist or meme sector is hyped, low market cap coins like this can pump quickly. The price is low, position to set up, and cost-performance is suitable (can set up spot positions).
(Watchlist)
$SNDK #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧
Future Scenario Simulation
Scenario A (Neutral Baseline, Probability about 65%)
First half of 2026-2027: Reasoning storage demand remains robust, NAND maintains tight balance; NBM long-term contracts continue to be implemented, company profits remain high; consumer side continues to contract. Starting from the second half of 2027, new capacity is gradually released, marginal prosperity weakens, and gross margin slowly declines.
Scenario B (Optimistic, Probability 20%)
Global AI computing capital expenditure continues to exceed expectations, data center storage demand continues to explode; the long-term contract model is widely validated by the industry, truly weakening NAND's cyclicality; enterprise products continue to increase in volume and price.
Scenario C (Pessimistic, Probability 15%)
US tech giants cut AI capital expenditure; global consumer electronics further weaken; leading manufacturers aggressively expand production; NAND prices rapidly fall, company profits sharply decline.
7. Summary
SanDisk is a core beneficiary of this AI storage cycle, completing the business transformation from consumer storage to AI data center storage; NBM long-term contracts are the biggest highlight, attempting to rewrite the strong cyclical history of the NAND industry, but this business model has not yet been tested through a complete downturn cycle.
The company's core contradiction: on one hand, AI brings structural dividends; on the other hand, the inherent cycles of the storage industry, asset line constraints, strong bargaining power of major customers, and future capacity releases constitute medium- to long-term suppressive factors. $MU Luo Jie had already given a bearish view in advance, using bull trap tactics to mislead with a false stop in the decline, then after sideways accumulation, it dropped again, falling another 2 points in just half an hour and continuing to decline.
After this earnings report's positive news is fully priced in, it is expected to return to the 770 price level.
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Gold has already risen above $4200, while Bitcoin remains fluctuating around 64500. Once called "digital gold," why hasn't BTC followed this time?
Pharaoh believes that gold and BTC now operate under completely different trading logics.
Gold's rise is driven by continuous inflows of global safe-haven funds; BTC, on the other hand, is still largely viewed by the market as a risk asset, with its movement influenced by liquidity and risk appetite.
Let's first look at the current market performance.
Gold has broken through from below $4000 to above $4200. Whenever geopolitical tensions heat up, safe-haven funds quickly flow in, pushing gold prices to new highs. In contrast, BTC has maintained a fluctuating trend over the past few months, with market sentiment cautious and performance clearly lagging behind gold.
Why does this difference exist?
There are two main reasons.
First, the two react very differently when the market faces risk.
Whether it was the 2020 Soleimani event or the 2026 "Epic Fury Operation," gold was almost always the first to attract capital; BTC, however, often experienced rapid declines at the onset of such events, with intraday swings of 5% or even 9% not uncommon. When it comes to true safe-haven demand, BTC still hasn't fully shed its risk asset characteristics.
Second, the participant structures are completely different.
Gold's main buyers are long-term funds such as central banks and pension funds; BTC's market is dominated more by leveraged traders, quantitative funds, and hedge funds. When market risk appetite declines, leveraged funds tend to exit first, which is a key reason why BTC's volatility remains higher than gold's.
So, does BTC still have opportunities?
Certainly, but its future opportunities may not come from the "digital gold" narrative, but rather from its own ecosystem, institutional capital, and the development of the crypto market.
Some traders currently prefer to increase gold holdings in phases, as gold is expected to continue outperforming BTC in the short term. Some analyses also suggest that BTC's recent correlation with the Nasdaq index is significantly higher than with gold, making its movement more susceptible to tech stocks and overall risk sentiment.
Therefore, when gold rises, BTC may not necessarily strengthen in tandem; but when risk assets are under pressure, BTC often struggles to stand alone. This may be the most noteworthy change in the current market.
Follow Pharaoh for market insights.
$BTC $ETH $BICO #Gold4200BTCStalls, why didn't BTC rise?
#DailyOrbit Family, a brief update on the latest progress of the US CLARITY Act. The House of Representatives has already voted to pass it, and the Senate committee has also approved it, but the full Senate has not yet held a formal vote.
The Senate will adjourn soon in August, so it is basically unlikely to be enacted this month; the battle will resume when the Senate reconvenes in September. There are still many disagreements between the two parties, and the 60-vote threshold has not been met.
If the bill is enacted, decentralized community projects will have more advantages, while highly centralized dog coins will be suppressed. If negotiations break down and the bill is shelved, the US will continue to rely on SEC litigation for regulation, and market uncertainty will remain.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $BTC Entering August, the US storage industry has reached a crucial point in earnings season. As a key global player in enterprise storage, Western Digital released its latest quarterly earnings report, with almost all core metrics exceeding market expectations. However, surprisingly, after the report was released, the company's stock price fell sharply in after-hours trading. This phenomenon also became one of the most talked-about topics across the entire storage sector from July to August. Many investors wonder: if the financial report is so good, why does the market choose to sell? In fact, this is a typical feature of the AI market entering deep waters—the market no longer just looks at performance, but is paying more attention to whether future growth can be sustained. 1. Financial Report Far Exceeding Market Expectations From the data released this time, Western Digital delivered a very impressive performance. The company's revenue for the quarter reached $3.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44%; Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $3.56, also above the consensus market expectation; meanwhile, the company expects next-quarter revenue to be between $4 billion and $4.2 billion, continuing to exceed most analysts' previous forecasts. Moreover, the company's profitability continues to improve. With continuous optimization of product structure and an increasing proportion of enterprise-grade high-capacity hard drive shipments, the company's gross margin has further improved, and free cash flow remains strong, indicating that this round of industry recovery is reflected not only in revenue growth but also in improved profitability quality. From the perspective of traditional cyclical stocks, this is already a non-routine issueHook: In tech this earnings season, beating estimates isn't enough—you have to beat expectations.
That was the story for SanDisk and Western Digital, both of which traded lower after hours despite delivering strong quarterly results.
SanDisk beat on revenue, gross margin, and EPS, but investors were looking for even more after the stock's strong run. Third-quarter revenue guidance came in just shy of Street expectations, while EPS guidance was largely in line, prompting some profit-taking. The more important takeaway, however, is that SanDisk has secured multi-year customer supply agreements covering more than 50% of FY27 and 65% of FY28 planned bit production at floor pricing. That provides much better visibility into NAND pricing and supports continued share buybacks.
Western Digital also posted a clean beat, with revenue, margins, and EPS all ahead of expectations, and guided next quarter above consensus. Even so, the stock sold off because the guidance didn't meaningfully raise the bar in an environment where investors were already expecting exceptionally strong HDD pricing and margins. There were also some concerns around softer exabyte growth as the company manages its 40TB ePMR ramp and HAMR qualification.
The bottom line: this wasn't a bad quarter for either company—it was a case of "good wasn't good enough." Fundamentals across NAND and HDD remain healthy, but with expectations running so high, anything short of a decisive upside surprise was bound to disappoint.
#DailyOrbit A comment on a news flash that is easily misread. Samsung and SK Hynix's stock prices have plummeted these days, causing a market uproar: is it a peak, or a mistaken sell-off? Goldman Sachs' judgment is quite firm—HBM is expected to double at most next year, and Hynix is about to announce a buyback plan soon. On one hand, the stock price has dropped sharply; on the other, institutions are calling for price increases and the leader is preparing a buyback to support the price. This divergence itself is information. My interpretation is: the pit caused by emotional selling and the pit caused by weakening fundamentals are two different things; don't confuse them. The narrative around storage is not over yet; a pullback does not mean the logic is broken. Those who understand know, the real issue is never "whether it fell," but "why it fell."#SandiskBeatAndBuyback Sandisk beat expectations, announced another $14B buyback… and still fell after hours 😅
Q4 revenue hit $8.97B with adjusted EPS of $39.25, but softer Q1 guidance spoiled the party. Classic market behavior: yesterday’s beat matters less than tomorrow’s outlook 📉
AI storage demand clearly isn’t the problem anymore. Now it’s all about whether NAND pricing and high-bandwidth flash demand can justify the valuation.
Big buyback, cautious guidance — which signal are you trusting more? 👀#ADPCoolsFedSplit #ADPCoolsFedSplit #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
Before the $SNDK SanDisk earnings report, I originally wanted to exit, but in the end, I didn't.
Entered at 1391, with the lower bound of the range at 1219, giving a space of over a hundred points. I thought that even if it fell after the earnings, it probably wouldn't break through directly.
As it turned out, the earnings data was indeed good, but it still dropped 9 points after hours. Now there's an unrealized loss of 30 points, but the grid strategy is still running.
There was an interesting move by a big whale: he took profit at 1390, making 400,000, then placed orders to buy back in batches at 1300, 1250, and 1201, averaging down to 1257. His approach was to exit first and then wait to buy back at lower prices, showing both judgment and discipline.
But I didn't exit like him. Not because I'm smarter, but because I think SanDisk can still hold at this level. The earnings themselves weren't bad: 8.97 billion in revenue, 84.6% gross margin, and EPS beat expectations. The drop was due to guidance being 250 million less than expected, and the market turned quickly. The fundamentals haven't collapsed, the lower bound of the range hasn't been broken, and the grid is still running. The premise of this strategy is that volatility doesn't break the range; it hasn't broken yet. If it breaks, then we'll talk; if not, we'll keep grinding.
He judged the rise was done and exited first; I judge the range can still hold and continue to hold. Just two different judgments, let's see who is right in the end.
I'm betting SanDisk can bounce back. It's not blind optimism; as long as the range isn't broken, I don't want to move. If I lose, I'll bear it and wait.$ETH emissions should only be just enough to pay for security.
Not for subsidizing lending platforms such as Aave through leverage loops, or making protocols Lido and Etherfi dependant on high emissions.Since Sen Ge said to short the storage sector, which coin is more recommended to operate?
Intraday, Sen Ge still recommends shorting $SNDK because after seeing the earnings report release, Sen Ge has lost the desire to bottom-fish. The reason is actually very simple:
① Next quarter will not meet everyone's high expectations. The market thought it would keep earning faster and faster, but unexpectedly, the guidance for the next quarter is far below market expectations. The fantasy of continuous rapid growth has been shattered.
② For the same reason, the previous sharp rise has already led profit-taking to exit long ago. SanDisk has increased 8 times within the year. Now after the earnings report release, the good news that should be realized has been realized. Good news landing is bad news.
Based on the above reasons, Sen Ge thinks the current price around $1232 is suitable for shorting. You can enter a starter position, and there might be a slight rebound when the US stock market opens at night. Adding to the position then would be more prudent!!!
👆️👆️ The above is just personal thinking, not any investment advice, for reference only!!!
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $MU $SKHY A quick news flash, those who understand will get it. Changxin Storage directly rejected Apple's price reduction request, quoting prices in line with Samsung and Hynix — this is more worth pondering than the price increase itself. In the past, the terminal giant (Apple) called the shots, and suppliers could only be squeezed on price; now the storage manufacturer dares to say "no" to Apple, indicating that pricing power is shifting from buyers to sellers. Coupled with memory shortages expected until 2027 and production capacity sold out in advance, this is a solid supply-side narrative. The spillover logic to the crypto world is: the market is re-pricing "hard assets with real supply and demand support," while assets like $BTC , driven purely by narrative, are being neglected in the short term. Let's watch and see if this wave of money eventually flows back into crypto. Explosive earnings yet still a big drop! Tonight in the US stock market, the storage sector faces a life-or-death test
The harshest reality of this US stock season: no matter how good the earnings data is, future guidance is more important.
SanDisk and Western Digital both hit historic highs in revenue and profit, accompanied by large buybacks, yet their stocks were directly sold off after hours.
It's not that the industry is in a downturn, but that the previous stock prices had already priced in all the positive expectations. As long as the future price increase slope falls short of the most optimistic imagination, the high valuation will quickly be crushed.$SPCX -linked crypto has a rolling supply problem well beyond the first session. Five more 7% slices of the same lockup group can release from August 20 through October 24, another 28% can release after Q3 results, and ordinary restrictions end December 8. Binance says eligible SPCXB users can convert 1:1 between BTech certificates and shares, giving equity selling a route into token pricing. $SPCX $USDT adds funding, margin and liquidation, so leveraged selling can run independently of employee sales. Bounces now face repeated supply windows and liquidation risk.#MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, halving the scale
MicroStrategy sold coins again. This time, the market reaction was completely different from last time.
When they sold the first batch last week, the market even wobbled a bit. This week, selling again, Bitcoin didn’t even have a decent pullback.
They sold 1,638 BTC, cashing out 104.7 million USD, with an average price of 63,957, which is over 10,000 USD below their cost basis. Last time it was 3,588 BTC; this time the scale was halved.
Ultimately, this is a dividend payment. A 12% annualized preferred stock dividend that must be paid. The money is paid out, but the position remains. The market understands now—they’re not bearish on Bitcoin; it’s just that the payment period has come due.
What’s really worth watching isn’t where these 1,638 BTC went, but when they start buying again. MicroStrategy has already set the conditions: waiting for the preferred stock price to recover to the issue price, currently about 10% off. They hold 842,138 BTC with a cost basis of 75,419. With that price level set, do you think they care about the profit or loss on these 1,600 BTC?
What do you think?
$BTC $SNDK Market Observation Notes on August 6, 2026
In the evening, the city was wrapped in twilight, with only the flowing car lights on the distant overpass still awake. I leaned against the window, my fingertips unconsciously swiping open the tablet, eyes landing on the screen full of K-lines and order books. The day's hustle gradually settled, and the traces hidden behind those numbers surfaced at this moment.
The Silence and Undercurrents of Large Market Caps
The overall market showed a "withdrawing" posture today. The volatility of major trading pairs significantly contracted, and such a brief equilibrium often signals an approaching turning point. A long-dormant $BTC ancient address made a split transfer this morning; part flowed to off-chain custody, while another part entered DeFi protocols for staking yield. The message conveyed by this operation is clear: some "whales" are seeking incremental returns on their holdings rather than rushing to cash out.
$ETH showed some resilience intraday. Although on-chain Gas fees remain in a comfortable range, accumulation by whale addresses continues. This accumulation often precedes price reactions; while the timing window is unpredictable, the directional guidance is relatively clear.
Structural Reinforcement in the DeFi Sector
In the lending market, $AAVE’s deposit and loan rates showed slight deviations. Some smart money is exploiting this spread for risk-free arbitrage, and the intensity of such operations usually serves as a leading indicator of rising market risk appetite. $MKR’s RWA asset side continues to expand, with a slight increase in the collateralization ratio of its stablecoin, reflecting the project team's cautious approach to risk management.
Independent Moves in RWA and Infrastructure
The independent price movements of RWA tokens like $ONDO and $POLYX today are noteworthy. Hot money on-chain is clearly withdrawing from high-risk meme projects and shifting toward targets with "compliant cash flow" expectations. Especially $ONDO, which saw continuous high-frequency buy orders during U.S. stock trading hours, with order placement strategies showing mechanical characteristics typical of institutional trading.
Liquidity Drain in L2 and New Public Chains
The entire Layer 2 sector faces severe liquidity siphoning. Gas consumption for $ARB and $OP has dropped to yearly lows, and the ecosystem lacks new blockbuster applications to activate existing users. Meanwhile, Move language newcomers like $SUI and $APT are not spared; their token prices repeatedly test breakdown levels with weakening rebounds, indicating the exhaustion of bullish momentum.
Liquidity Downgrade in the Meme Sector
The sector is undergoing brutal survival of the fittest. Only a very few top Meme tokens maintain turnover rates through community stickiness, while the vast majority of clones and derivatives have lost liquidity, becoming code ghosts. This divergence indicates the market has passed the blind-buying frenzy phase; sentiment is ebbing, and capital is only willing to pay for the "most consensual" chips.
Today's major net capital outflows are concentrated in $WIF, $BONK, $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $SUI, $SEI, $APT, $CRV, and $CAKE.
Mid-tier projects to watch include $TIA, $INJ, $PENDLE, $FXS, and $CVX. Their prices are stuck in awkward valuation zones, and any minor macro negative could be the last straw to break them.
A Conversation About the Market
I remember when I first entered the industry, a trader told me: in this market, being right or wrong only accounts for 30% of the outcome; the remaining 70% depends on how you handle losing positions. Many stumble not because they misread the direction, but because they refuse to admit the mistake, continuously adding positions against the trend, ultimately turning short-term losses into irreversible principal damage.
Night deepens. I close the tablet and pick up the book on the desk corner that I’ve been flipping through for half a month but haven’t finished. The night breeze passes through the sheer curtain, carrying a slight chill; the coffee on the desk has long been finished.
In this era of information overload, turning off the screen is also part of trading—giving emotions some time to reset, allowing judgment to return to zero in the blank.
Some money was never meant for you to earn. Some volatility, missing it is more fortunate than making a mistake. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorization — SanDisk's $SNDK suddenly goes viral, and the next focus in the AI era might be "storage." Recently, the market has been changing quite interestingly. In the past, when people talked about AI, their first reaction was: GPU, computing power, chips. But now, more and more people are paying attention to an easily overlooked aspect: storage. SanDisk has recently re-entered the market spotlight, and the core logic behind it is that AI data demands are changing the entire storage industry. (Reuters) Why? Because AI models are getting larger. Training requires massive amounts of data, and inference also needs to continuously read data. Simply put: in the internet era, everyone competed about "whether there was data." Now, in the AI era, the competition is: "Can we store and process massive amounts of data?" This is why storage companies are starting to reprice. SanDisk's recent performance has been strong, with AI data center demand becoming a key driver. The company has also disclosed several long-term supply agreements to reduce the impact of cyclical fluctuations in the storage industry. (Reuters) But here's the interesting part of the market: when good news comes out, stock prices don't necessarily rise immediately. The reason is: the market traded ahead of expectations. SanDisk's previous gains were significant, and although the latest earnings report was strong, some earnings guidance did not fully meet the market's highest expectations, causing the stock price to adjust. (MarketWatch) This also reminds us of a lesson#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
Wow! SanDisk just released a dazzling earnings report: quarterly revenue nearly hit $9 billion, a three to fourfold year-over-year surge, earnings per share soared to just over $39, and gross margin absurdly climbed above 84%.
The data center segment went crazy, with revenue nearly jumping tenfold, and the edge business also took off. The full year turned profitable, pockets filled with cold hard cash, and they even added over $14 billion in buyback authorization. Normally, numbers like these should have the market worshipping on its knees.
So what happened? After hours, the stock was hammered down by 7-8%, dragging the entire storage sector into a collective meltdown, with Western Digital and Hynix both dragged down.
The reason is simple and blunt: next quarter’s revenue guidance is set between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, with the midpoint just slightly below the sky-high expectations the market maniacs had already set. Gross margin has also plateaued from its peak. That tiny gap was enough to trigger a bull stampede.
The stock price had already fully priced in several years of AI storage frenzy; now, if you can’t perform a miracle again, the funds will turn their backs on you immediately.
KOLs on X are very clear: “No matter how much hype, just sell and be done with it; it’s time for storage to wake up.” Some mock: “Even nearly doubling earnings isn’t enough; the market now only believes in the myth of ‘always beating expectations,’ and the moment a crack appears, it gets smashed first.”
Others say the consumer business is still shrinking, propped up only by enterprise AI; this structure looks fragile. Most of the growth came from price cycles, and once the price hike bonus peaks, the good times may not last.
Some are eyeing the support level around 1200; if broken, it could plunge below 1000, or even lower, which would be the real bargain hunting zone.
To be clear, long-term contracts locked in for over four years guarantee at least hundreds of billions in revenue, pricing power remains, and AI inference demand won’t die out quickly—these hard facts no one denies. But the market isn’t buying the company anymore; it’s buying an illusion that expectations can always be raised another notch. When the illusion shatters, even the best fundamentals get beaten down first.
So don’t foolishly catch a falling knife. Until the emotional venting is over, the bearish momentum will likely continue to rage.
Wait until valuations are truly reset, and those who can genuinely benefit from AI storage dividends have bottomed out, then consider making a move. Let's look at this news first. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ghalibabadi announced on August 5 that the agreement between Iran and Oman regarding the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing finalization. According to the framework of the agreement, all ships entering the Persian Gulf must pass through Iran's northern waterways. Iran has gained greater control over passage through the strait than before the war. The U.S. side also admits that this control was something Iran did not possess before the war. Logically, this should be a signal of "Iran taking tougher." But what about oil prices? They have collapsed. U.S. crude oil futures once fell to $74.24 per barrel, hitting a three-week low. Domestic crude oil futures fell more than 6%, and container shipping to Europe dropped nearly 9%. Iran gained greater control, but oil prices fell even harder. What exactly is the market trading? The real issue in market transactions is not "who controls it," but "whether it can pass." The core arrangements of the agreement are as follows: 👉 Incoming vessels will take the northern 👉 Iranian waters route; departure vessels will use the southern 👉 waters of Oman; Iran will coordinate and cooperate with the 60-day temporary arrangement with no 👉 tolls; mines along the median line of the strait will be cleared within 30 days and used for two-way passage. The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transport. Since the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, this waterway has been blockaded. Now, the blockade is about to be lifted. The market does not care about who "wins," but whether ships can pass. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagae spoke the plain truth—Iran reached an agreement and...$ETH ETH finally broke through tonight! It surged to a high of 1927, currently priced at 1901, ending a long 8-day consolidation. Just yesterday, it was said that "the longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout," and today the bulls proved it with action—a single bullish candle broke the deadlock after 8 days of sideways movement.
What happened today?
Key news: SanDisk's earnings report delivered a major positive surprise. Q4 revenue reached $9.1 billion, exceeding the expected range of $8.4-8.9 billion; gross margin was 83%, far surpassing expectations; NAND supply shortage will continue until 2027; announced a $15 billion buyback plan. After-hours surge boosted sentiment across the entire chip/storage sector, leading to a rally in Nasdaq futures tonight. As crypto is a risk asset moving in tandem, ETH was directly lifted by sentiment, breaking through the 1880 resistance level.
What does the breakout mean?
After 8 consecutive days of low-volume oscillation between 1835-1880, today saw a volume breakout above 1880, reaching a high of 1927. This breakout is very likely valid. 1927 is only $50 away from the late July high of 1977—once it breaks 1930, the upside space will fully open, directly facing the 1950-1980 gap zone. The ETH/BTC rate continues to rise, indicating ETH is outperforming BTC.
Technical outlook?
The 1927-1930 zone is the first resistance; a breakout targets 1950-1980. The 1880-1890 zone has flipped from resistance to support, forming a new bullish defense line; a break below targets 1850-1860. RSI6 is at 60.27, rebounding from around 50, signaling the bullish trend has just started and there is room to grow. On the daily chart, a bullish candle broke through multiple moving averages, a typical signal of the end of a correction.
Trading advice:
For those with positions: move stop-loss up below 1880, target 1930-1950. Hold steady and wait for the momentum.
For those not yet in: consider entering on a pullback to 1890-1900 with a stop-loss at 1875, targeting 1930-1950. Alternatively, wait for a volume breakout above 1930 to enter, with a stop-loss at 1905.
Core conclusion: Breakout confirmed, target 1950-1980. Don’t wait until it reaches 1977 to ask if you should enter—that will be too late. Pullbacks are opportunities!
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $XAU gold explodes! Buy directly at 4260, is a pullback just giving away money?
Brothers, gold was too fierce yesterday, soaring $200 straight, breaking through the range that had been stuck for a month! This market makes people pumped up.
The news is clear: US employment data disappointed, rate hike expectations completely cooled off, the dollar dropped, so gold took off, right? Even more intense, central banks worldwide are "scrambling to buy," South Korea bought gold again after 13 years. Wall Street institutions are shouting 4600 by year-end, 5000 next year, this momentum really makes the bears shiver.
From a technical perspective: On the daily chart, the price has firmly stood above key resistance, QBOLL widening its gap, the upside space is fully open. The 1-hour chart shows RSI a bit overbought, but that’s a sign of strength. Remember, in a bull market, resistance is meant to be broken.
My view is clear: Aggressive friends, go long directly near 4260 to take the lead. Conservative friends, patiently wait for a pullback near 4220 to enter. Once the trend forms, it won’t end easily; this wave could reach 4400! Don’t be afraid, just go for it!
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ Now is not the time to chase the rally, but to gamble on the rhythm of unlocking the lock. Have you ever thought that what truly makes people uncomfortable is never a drop, but rather that when you think a correction is coming, it just doesn't? When I watched the market myself, I had a very direct impression: SPCX fell from 130 to 110, with every lot showing a 20-point gap. It looks like a normal pullback, but there are too many people stuck inside. Especially those positions that entered at high levels and waited for a rebound to break even—they didn't leave, and the market didn't give them a chance to do so. Under this structure, prices are hard to reverse quickly; instead, it feels like patience is worn down by time. Tomorrow is the day the first batch of circulating shares is unlocked, and this milestone is more important than the price itself. The unlocking is not a one-time event, but a continuous release process. Another batch will be released on August 6, so it's unrealistic to expect a return to 135 in the short term. At the current level of 110, on the surface it's a support test, but in reality, it's testing the sincerity of selling pressure. In terms of derivatives structure, I observed that the holding costs for near-month contracts are declining, indicating that some funds are already preparing for downward protection in advance, rather than simply waiting for a rebound. This kind of action is often more honest than price; it reveals the capital's true judgment of rhythm. There is also a bullish logic: if 110 can hold and the unlocking volume isn't as intense as imagined, then a relatively clean accumulation range will form here, and the rebound will be stronger than last time. But the risks are also obvious, and the dilution effect from lifting the ban is real. If tomorrow...$BTC $ETH $SOL August 5｜In-depth Analysis of Crypto Market Trends
Market Status
BTC in the Asian session retraced to support at 63400 before oscillating upward, testing resistance at 64500, currently trading in the 64100‑64300 range with slight gains over 24 hours. Volume remains low, indicating a bear-covering driven recovery without volume confirmation of a reversal.
ETH shows weakness, trading between $1860‑1880, repeatedly hitting resistance at 1895 and pulling back.
Overall market cap is 2.28 trillion, BTC dominance at 56.5%, altcoins are highly divergent, most secondary coins passively follow BTC movements, lacking independent buying pressure.
Across the network, 24-hour contract liquidations total about $74 million, 86% are short liquidations, indicating short-term bear squeezes; funding rates remain neutral with no extreme crowding; the Fear & Greed Index is 27, still in the fear zone, with strong market caution. Large investors are waiting for Friday's US nonfarm payroll data before making directional decisions.
Key Levels
BTC
Resistance: 64500 (short-term strong resistance), 65200 (dense liquidation zone)
Support: 63200 (intraday defense), 62600 (strong support, break invalidates recovery logic)
ETH
Resistance: 1895, 1960
Support: 1830, 1790
Macro Logic: Positive factors exist, but crypto and US stocks show clear decoupling
1. Expectations of eased navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East have lowered oil prices and inflation expectations. The 10-year US Treasury yield slightly retreated, holding near 4.68%, supporting risk asset sentiment. US stocks and gold rose together, but BTC's gains lagged significantly, indicating passive recovery rather than active inflows.
2. Core focus: US nonfarm payroll data at 20:30 Friday.
- If nonfarm data > expectations: strong employment, delayed rate cuts, US Treasury yields rebound, crypto market under pressure and declines;
- If nonfarm data < expectations: rate cut expectations improve, opening space for this rebound.
Market volatility is extremely compressed currently; after data release, a high probability of volume breakout and trend shift.
Capital and Institutional Analysis
1. BTC spot ETFs have net inflows for two consecutive days, with a single-day net inflow of $244 million, BlackRock's IBIT being the main buyer; however, the 30-day cycle still shows net outflows, indicating short-term bottom-fishing rather than sustained institutional return. Grayscale ETHE maintains small positive inflows.
2. On-chain data: significant chip turnover between 62000‑65000, with 63000 as a concentrated cost zone acting as both support and selling pressure. MicroStrategy shows no large position changes; whales remain cautious.
3. Derivatives: BTC open interest is rising, leverage is accumulating in this low-volatility environment; caution is advised for potential sharp spikes and dual-direction liquidations after nonfarm data.
Sector Performance
1. Major altcoins: SOL and AVAX face large token unlocks soon, expected selling pressure limits rebound height, rebound strength weaker than BTC;
2. Meme coins: rapid rotation, some coins spike then quickly fall the next day; shallow liquidity pools and unburned LP tokens increase risk, participation should be with small positions prioritizing capital preservation;
3. Narrative sectors: tokenized real asset concepts show sporadic moves, short-lived with no sector effect;
4. Policy: CLARITY crypto bill confirmed no vote before recess, short-term policy optimism fades, market driven fully by macro data and technicals.
Outlook and Trading Strategy
Currently a technical recovery after decline, not a trend reversal; heavy overhead resistance; market direction depends on nonfarm data.
1. Contracts: strictly control low positions, avoid high leverage, do not pre-emptively bet on nonfarm results; short-term range trading, reduce positions near 64400‑64500 resistance; consider light long positions on pullback to 63200 support with strict stop-loss. Expect sharp volatility around nonfarm release; beginners advised to stay out.
2. Spot: mainly hold and observe, avoid chasing highs; take partial profits on floating gains, prioritize capital withdrawal.
3. Meme coins: avoid chasing high spikes, focus on checking liquidity pool and LP lock status for new listings.
4. Mid-term: wait for nonfarm data release; after volume breakout or confirmed support, re-plan portfolio.
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ Jiang Zhuoer is back with his fortune-telling again. Using a four-cycle historical fit, the previous three drops were 86.9%, 84.1%, and 77.6%, and this round predicts 65.1%, corresponding to a $BTC bottom at $44,016, expected in October.
I really want to roast him—what nonsense is this?
What were the environments during the previous three bull and bear cycles? What is the environment this time? Spot ETFs have been approved, BlackRock IBIT sees daily net inflows, institutional funds are buying BTC as a portfolio asset, the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, and after halving, daily supply is decreasing—the idea of applying the previous three scripts to now is like using Nokia’s experience to predict iPhone sales would flop.
$44,016? In October? BTC is currently holding steady above $60,000 like iron, and you’re telling me it will drop another 30%? History may rhyme, but it doesn’t repeat itself. The previous three cycles had no ETFs, no sovereign wealth fund allocations, and no consensus narrative of "digital gold." Measuring the new cycle with the old cycle’s ruler doesn’t find a bottom; it’s like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword in the water.
More realistically: don’t even talk about $44,000; whether $60,000 can hold is already a question. If it really falls to $44,000, that’s not a cycle bottom—that’s a black swan graveyard. Jiang’s model may be sophisticated, but it’s fed historical data, not the current institutional buying.
#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 SanDisk's earnings report exceeded expectations on both fronts, and they also announced an additional $14 billion buyback.
Yet the stock price fell.
**It's not that the earnings report was bad, but the market has started to doubt: how much longer can this super cycle in storage last?**
Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion.
Non-GAAP EPS was $39.25.
Both exceeded expectations.
Even more impressive:
Full-year revenue grew 175%,
Data center business grew 437%.
The board also authorized an additional $14 billion buyback,
bringing the remaining buyback authorization to $15.5 billion.
Normally, all of this is positive. But the market still sold off.
Because storage stocks, like AMD, have entered a very awkward phase:
**"Good" is no longer enough; they have to outperform everyone's expectations.**
SanDisk's next quarter revenue guidance is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion.
Growth is still there.
But it didn’t once again blow past market expectations.
So investors are starting to worry:
How long can NAND price increases continue?
When will the AI storage shortage ease?
Can they maintain gross margins above 84%?
Also, the $14 billion buyback authorization is huge,
but note: **authorization to buy back ≠ immediately spending $14 billion on stock today.**
It’s more about signaling to the market that the company has strong cash flow,
and management believes their stock is worth buying.
So my current assessment of SanDisk:
The long-term AI storage thesis remains intact.
But the biggest short-term enemy is no longer performance.
It’s — **expectations being too high.**
A company with such strong earnings and a large buyback, yet the stock price falls,
this itself is the most important signal to watch.
$SNDK $XSNDK
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 The cryptocurrency market is always full of drama. On August 6, when SanDisk released its earnings report and its price dropped 12.2%, on-chain data revealed the exact opposite story: big money not only failed to leave but accelerated its entry. Monitoring shows that SanDisk's open interest soared from $135 million to $190 million within 24 hours, surging by more than $54 million, an increase of 40.6%. This divergence of "falling prices and rising positions" is often a prelude to the market's upcoming direction. What's more noteworthy is that the current hourly funding rate remains positive, indicating that the cost of new positions is still being bet on the bulls, and the bears have not gained absolute advantage. The climax of this play belongs to a mysterious giant whale address. This player, who once topped the SKHX long position leaderboard, decisively made a move in the afternoon, acquiring 12,527.6 shares of SNDK in just 20 minutes, with a total investment of about $15.557 million at an average cost of $1,241.9. As of press time, this huge position is fully held with 2x leverage. Although it has only slightly lost $22,000 due to price fluctuations, a mere $20,000 unrealized loss is almost negligible for a $15 million position. Its liquidation price is set at a very low $88, meaning that unless SanDisk suffers a black swan crash of over 90%, this whale's safety cushion is quite solid. $SNDK Interestingly, after completing this stunning purchase, this address did not set any take-profit, stop-loss, or position increase orders. This "naked" holding stance is eitherPurely manual post, not AI
Pre-market at $1350.5, about 5.4% lower than previous close. Both earnings beats and the new $14 billion buyback are on the table, yet the price hasn't continued to recover. During the same period, SPY fell about 0.23%, QQQ about 0.95%, which doesn't explain its further decline.
Macro conditions have not reached systemic RISK OFF. The market is revealing itself in valuation: buybacks can provide buying pressure but cannot support high-level chips.
$SNDK is temporarily not opened, under observation. Only look to support between $1320–$1380, reopen long positions after reclaiming $1430; do not buy below $1320. Maximum single loss controlled within 2% of total capital, no leverage. Data as of 18:10 Beijing time, August 6.
#SanDiskEarningsBeatExpectations #New$14BillionBuybackAuthorization #SanDisk #USStockEarnings #StockBuyback闪迪最新一季财报数据堪称亮眼，季度营收89.7亿美元，大幅超出市场预期，同比暴涨372%，调整后毛利率高达84.6%。全年业绩同样完成大反转，从去年亏损转为大额盈利。数据中心业务成为最大引擎，收入暴涨十几倍，占营收比重已经来到33%，AI算力建设带来的存储红利实实在在体现在报表之上。同时公司公布大额回购计划，还签下多份长期供货协议，用来平滑行业周期波动。 但亮眼财报公布之后，盘后股价直接大跌接近8%。核心矛盾不在于已经落地的业绩，而在于资本市场对未来增长加速度的担忧。 下一季度营收指引低于市场一致预期，存在接近5%的缺口。虽然指引本身依旧保持高增长，但市场之前已经把预期打满，资金期待的是继续超预期，而不是单纯“业绩很好”。存储板块现在交易的不是当下利润，而是后续增长斜率📉。 毛利率拐点信号出现。本季度毛利率创下历史新高，但下季度指引毛利率开始回落，意味着高毛利扩张阶段大概率告一段落。AI存储带来的红利还在，但爆发式向上的阶段可能放缓。 消费端业务明显拖后腿。消费电子需求疲软，消费业务收入同比、环比双双下滑。公司战略重心主动向数据中心企业级倾斜，转型必然伴随#Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资，估值超200亿美元
Impressive, Polymarket is negotiating a new round of financing with a target valuation exceeding $20 billion. If successful, this round will raise about $1 billion. Last October, its valuation was only $9 billion, and in April this year, a non-public financing round pushed it to $15 billion. From $9 billion to $20 billion, it more than doubled in less than a year.
Supporting this valuation are three simultaneous developments.
First, real money is flowing in. Since the full opening of the U.S. platform in April this year, annualized revenue has tripled, reaching over $1.2 billion. The U.S. platform's daily trading volume rose from $75 million at the end of May to over $100 million, with the international market adding another $150 million daily. With the World Cup as a catalyst, in July Polymarket and Kalshi combined surpassed $50 billion in trading volume.
Second, Wall Street has taken sides. Last October, ICE invested $1 billion, and in the April round, D.E. Shaw and G Squared joined in. This investor lineup is top-tier in any sector.
Third, the sector itself is expanding. Prediction markets are evolving from a "niche experiment in the crypto world" to "mainstream financial infrastructure." The demand for betting on real-world events like the World Cup, U.S. elections, and economic data is exploding. Kalshi has already reached a $22 billion valuation and is negotiating a next round at $40 billion. The two leaders are racing to see who can grow faster.
But there are risks behind this.
First, regulation. The CFTC is still investigating Polymarket's marketing practices. France has outright blocked the website.
Second, competition. Kalshi's trading volume is already three times that of Polymarket. Whether Polymarket can catch up with the funds it has raised is uncertain.
Third, the sustainability of the business model. Revenue heavily depends on large event catalysts—World Cup, elections—such catalysts cannot happen every year. Whether growth can be maintained in non-election years is the real test.
A $20 billion valuation is not unreasonable. With annualized revenue of $1.2 billion, a 16x price-to-sales ratio is not expensive in today's AI and crypto sectors. But the premise is that Polymarket can prove it can sustain growth even in non-election years.
The greater significance of this financing round is that Wall Street is voting with its money, treating prediction markets as a legitimate financial sector for allocation.
If this money really comes through, the capital race between Polymarket and Kalshi will further intensify. For ordinary users, this is good news—the products will become more user-friendly, and the market will be more transparent. But the premise is that regulators don't suddenly intervene and disrupt the process.$SNDK SanDisk Earnings Deep Dive: Explosive Performance Yet Facing Sell-Off, Market Divergence Fully Exposed🔥
This time, the SNDK earnings report delivered a vivid lesson to all the market's chasing funds: solid, better-than-expected results still couldn't withstand the market pullback.
Many were stunned after seeing the data: whether revenue, profit, or the $10 billion-level buyback program, all exceeded market expectations with visibly strong fundamentals. So why did the stock face a sell-off after hours?
Let's first review the solid, hard-core earnings data:
SNDK FY2026 Q4 quarterly revenue reached $8.97 billion, significantly surpassing the market expectation of $8.48 billion; adjusted EPS hit $39.25, well above the estimated $34.96.
The strong breakout in this period's performance was mainly driven by the real explosive demand for AI storage. AI computing power supporting flash memory orders continued to increase, directly supporting this quarter's impressive revenue and profit. The industry's prosperity is fully realized, not just a market hyped concept.
Not only did the company beat expectations, but it also released a major positive: an additional $14 billion stock buyback authorization, combined with the existing remaining quota, bringing the total buyback scale to $15.5 billion.
A buyback of this scale is a strong bottom-line signal in any industry, representing the listed company's confidence in its valuation and optimism about future development—a standard positive catalyst.
However, the capital market always follows one iron rule: the market trades on expectations, not past results.
No matter how good the current earnings are, they only fulfill past prosperity, while capital pricing focuses on future growth potential.
The core reason for the recent market weakness lies in the next quarter's revenue guidance falling short of market sentiment expectations.
FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance ranges from $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with the midpoint below the previously optimistic consensus.
Just a slight weakness in forward-looking data reversed capital sentiment, triggering concentrated profit-taking at high levels and a rapid after-hours pullback.
This also completely changes the current market logic in the storage sector:
Previously, funds only cared about "how good the current data is and whether orders are hot enough";
Now everyone is re-examining the core question—how long can the high prosperity cycle of AI storage continue?
Currently, market divergence is fully amplified:
Some believe this round of decline is just profit-taking on good news, with funds cashing out at high levels on strong earnings;
Others think the market's prior expectations were overextended, and even maxed-out earnings couldn't match the extreme imagination of capital.
At this point, the AI storage sector has completely left the "pure storytelling and hype" phase. Future market moves will no longer rely on themes but must be validated by real data.
The three key factors now deciding the sector's trend are:
1. Whether the NAND flash price increase trend can continue;
2. Whether the downstream real demand for AI high-bandwidth flash can maintain high explosive growth;
3. Whether companies' real profitability can match current high valuations.
Currently, the price trends of the three storage giants also precisely reflect market divergence:
SKHYNIX, SNDK SanDisk, and Micron MU show clear price divergence, with capital's attitude toward the sector shifting from unanimous bullishness to cautious play.
At this stage, trading strategies must completely change:
No blind bullish chasing based on a single quarter's outstanding earnings, nor outright rejection of the entire AI storage sector due to a slightly weak quarterly guidance.
The industry's long-term logic remains, but short-term valuations have reached a high-stakes level. Going forward, focus on tracking spot price increase rhythms, downstream real demand resilience, and companies' sustained profitability, operating according to real fundamentals.
Maintain rational trading—neither extremely bullish nor extremely bearish—leaving enough room for error. Following the trend is currently the optimal solution.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？ #内存卖方市场延续，韩股能否迎来反转？ Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes), co-founder of @BitMEX, says an AI credit bubble could eventually push Bitcoin to $1 million
His logic: companies are borrowing trillions for AI infrastructure. If those bets don't pay off, governments bail them out with printed money
Printed money debases currencies. Debased currencies drive people to #Bitcoin. That's the supercycle thesis in action.Bitcoin wiped out the shorts in one day.
BTC rebounded 4.14% to $66,627.
In just four hours of the Asian morning session, $142 million worth of short positions were liquidated.
The entire market's shorts exploded by $235 million in one day.
Wow, this isn't a bull market returning; it's the shorts paying their tuition first.
No new money, but a short squeeze alone can create a sense of ceremony.
Do you dare to chase now? $BTC #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 The same cat is 20% more expensive on-chain. Where did you buy it?
There was an interesting detail today. Bitstamp listed CASHCAT; the official announcement post hasn't appeared yet, but the trading function on the page is already available.
Let's clarify the relationship between these names first. Bitstamp is a long-established exchange in Luxembourg, which Robinhood bought for $200 million in cash in early June. CASHCAT is a meme coin running on Robinhood's own blockchain. So the current situation is that a cat has appeared on Robinhood's chain, and the exchange Robinhood bought has listed this cat.
What’s really interesting is the price. At the time of writing, Bitstamp shows CASHCAT at $0.1123, while GMGN shows the on-chain price at $0.132, a 48% increase in 24 hours. The same coin, two places, nearly a 20% difference.
The price difference itself isn’t complicated. The newly listed coin hasn’t yet established deep market liquidity, and the arbitrage channel between the two markets isn’t connected, so the prices diverge. But what this exposes is important: where you buy determines your cost basis. With the same amount of money, entering at a 20% difference means your experience of subsequent price moves will be completely different.
This kind of price gap won’t last forever. Either the on-chain price will be pushed down to align with the exchange, or the exchange price will rise to match the chain. Whoever bears the gap depends on which side has thinner liquidity. Historically, the side with thinner liquidity usually suffers losses from chasing highs.
Looking back a bit, this cat rose 120% last week, with a market cap returning to around $86 million, but it reached 22 cents in mid-July and is now just above 13 cents, still halfway up. The so-called 120% rise is climbing out of a deeper pit, not a new high. Many people tend to overlook this difference.
There’s another angle worth pondering. Robinhood’s whole operation: the chain is theirs, the exchange is one they bought, and the issuance platform just started running on this chain. A coin’s entire journey from minting to liquidity pool to centralized exchange listing all happens within the same company’s ecosystem. The efficiency is indeed high, but this also means there’s basically no third party to judge whether it’s worth that price.
Here are a few simple questions for your own market watching. Is the 24-hour trading volume enough for you to exit your position fully? Was there a specific event on the day it rose, or was it purely driven by capital? How long will the price gap between the two markets take to converge, and in which direction? If you can’t answer these three questions, it means your understanding is still stuck at the candlestick chart level.
By the way, about the broader environment. BTC is still sideways between 64,000 and 65,000, the 200-week moving average at 63,657 was crossed but without volume support; there’s only so much money in the market. When meme coins rise in this context, they’re grabbing chips already in the market, not new money coming in, so the rise is fast but also fades quickly. This is different from last year’s incremental market.
Would you go out of your way to place an order in another market just for that 20% difference? #SandiskBeatAndBuyback Sandisk beat expectations, announced another $14B buyback… and still fell after hours 😅
Q4 revenue hit $8.97B with adjusted EPS of $39.25, but softer Q1 guidance spoiled the party. Classic market behavior: yesterday’s beat matters less than tomorrow’s outlook 📉
AI storage demand clearly isn’t the problem anymore. Now it’s all about whether NAND pricing and high-bandwidth flash demand can justify the valuation.
Big buyback, cautious guidance — which signal are you trusting more? 👀A term has recently been brought up again: CRS.
Caixin reported that as CRS information exchange becomes routine, tax authorities can now fully obtain data on dividends and cash values of overseas insurance policies. The previous gap in tax administration is being filled, and the taxation process on insurance income from overseas earnings has already started.
Simply put, CRS is a multinational account information exchange mechanism. If you open an account at a financial institution abroad, that institution reports the account information to the local tax authority, which then exchanges it with the tax authority where you are a tax resident. CRS itself does not collect taxes; it only ensures others know what you have.
The key point is the latter part. CRS is set to upgrade to version 2.0, and the core change explicitly states that crypto assets, central bank digital currencies, and certain electronic money products will be included in the definition of financial assets.
What does this line mean? Previously, this mechanism focused on bank accounts, securities accounts, insurance policies, and trusts. Crypto assets were not on the list—not because they were secure, but because the rules hadn’t covered them yet. Now that a line is added to the list, the nature changes.
I know many people’s first reaction is to worry about anonymity on the blockchain. There is a misunderstanding here. The blockchain indeed doesn’t record your name, but your coins most likely don’t stay entirely in your own wallet. Buying in and cashing out go through exchanges, which are financial institutions themselves. They have your identity information and snapshots of your assets. Once the rules include crypto assets as financial assets, exchanges must report according to the rules. This has nothing to do with whether the blockchain is anonymous or not.
There is also a resonance effect. Caixin also mentioned that tax administration is tightening simultaneously in areas like overseas stock trading, overseas insurance, and offshore trusts. This means it’s not a single action but several lines pushing forward together. Around the same time, the UK and US are setting regulations for stablecoins, and requirements for tracing on-chain transfers are also advancing. The direction is consistent: crypto assets are being gradually integrated from a regulatory blank space into the existing financial system.
What does this mean for trading? In the short term, nothing. It doesn’t change today’s candlestick charts. BTC is still fluctuating between 64,000 and 65,000, just broke above the 200-week moving average at 63,657, volume hasn’t followed, and Coinbase premium has been negative for 79 consecutive days. These numbers have nothing to do with tax rules.
In the medium to long term, there are variables. After compliance costs rise, two things will happen simultaneously. One, the activity space for some gray-area funds will be compressed, possibly removing some liquidity in the short term. Two, more compliant institutional money will be willing to enter because the rules are clear and risks can be priced. Which force is stronger depends on the implementation pace; it’s not something you can decide offhand.
My approach is to note this down and wait for a concrete implementation timetable before adjusting liquidity expectations. This kind of thing has a characteristic: the market doesn’t react when announced, but the impact on capital flow becomes visible in the months after it takes effect.
Will you adjust where you hold your coins because of these rule changes, or do you feel it’s still far from you? #SandiskBeatAndBuyback dual earnings beat expectations, with an additional $14 billion buyback authorization $SKHY
The storage sector collectively plunged back into a downtrend.
Still holding the short position opened near 1100 on Hynix; the current price has dropped to around 1051.
Watching to see if it can break the support tonight and continue the decline.
As mentioned before, 1070-1050 is the first support zone. The price has now fallen into this range, indicating that the downtrend structure after the failed rebound is still unfolding.
The logic hasn't changed:
Positive news has been fully priced in, but the sector can't rally; the downtrend channel remains unbroken, and even the support levels are starting to fail.
✔ Short opened near 1100
✔ Current price 1056, down 44 points
✔ Original stop loss at 1132
✔ Weakness continues, target remains near 1012
At this position, I won't chase shorts anymore, just manage the existing positions. As unrealized profits grow, I will gradually tighten protection to prevent profitable trades from turning into losses again.
I'm not shorting the entire storage cycle, but rather the failure of this rebound after all the positive news has been priced in.
The price has now given the answer; the rest is just to execute the plan.#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Good afternoon, brothers! I just finished lunch and opened my phone, almost spraying food on the screen—$BTC is at 65015! A couple of days ago it was stuck at 62000, and now after one sleep it’s surged to 65000? From the low of 62200 straight up to 65026, a rebound of nearly 2800 points. It feels like suddenly finding extra money in your paycheck—shocked, but pretty good 😅
What’s going on? Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire + oil price crash. Trump and Iran are going to talk about the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude plunged, easing inflation worries, risk appetite recovered, money is flowing out of oil into crypto. Crypto basically got a free lunch.
BlackRock led the charge, IBIT had a net inflow of $196.8 million in one day. Bitcoin ETFs have had a total inflow of $626 million over the past three days. Even more crazy, over 38,000 BTC flowed into accumulation addresses, one of the largest capital inflows ever. The whales are quietly buying up, like aunties rushing to grab discounts at the supermarket.
But don’t get too happy too soon—the Fed governor Cook turned hawkish again, saying if inflation doesn’t drop, he supports continuing rate hikes. Within the FOMC, 9 votes favored holding steady, 3 opposed and wanted a hike, the first time since 2016. Rate hike expectations could rebound at any time.
Also, the 65000 level is the "ceiling" for the daily rebound. Volume only rose 15%, I always feel a breakout without volume is a bit shaky—like telling a date "I own a house" but it’s actually rented. Let’s have some tea and watch the show first. 🍵The largest stock unlock in U.S. history is here! SpaceX is releasing 911 million shares today, doubling the circulating supply.
Today (August 6), up to 911.5 million shares held by SpaceX employees and pre-IPO shareholders are officially unlocked.
Based on the closing price of $108.27 on August 5, these shares are worth about $98.7 billion. Based on the closing price of $125.33 on August 4, the value is $114 billion.
No matter which price you use, this is the largest lockup expiration in the history of the U.S. capital markets.
Here are some key numbers for you to grasp:
SpaceX currently has only 639 million shares in circulation. The 911.5 million shares unlocked today are 1.43 times the current circulating supply.
After unlocking, the tradable shares will increase from 639 million to up to 1.55 billion shares.
But this is just the beginning. By early December this year, the tradable shares will surge to 5.33 billion, more than 8 times the current amount.
What makes SpaceX different from other IPO companies?
Most companies unlock all shares at once when the lockup period ends after IPO. But SpaceX has arranged a nine-stage phased unlock.
Today releases the first batch—20% subject to a 180-day lockup. Then on August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 26, another 7% will be released each time. After the Q3 earnings report, 28% will be released. On December 8, the remaining shares will be fully unlocked.
A fund manager from Baillie Gifford said something very apt: "We have never seen such an arrangement, never seen such a scale of unlock, nor such a phased lockup implementation. We are in uncharted territory."
So will these shares be sold?
Not necessarily. Unlocking does not equal selling.
But the question is—who holds these shares? What is their cost basis?
SpaceX’s private valuation a year ago was about $400 billion. After completing the acquisition of xAI this year, the overall valuation reached $1 trillion.
Even if the current stock price has dropped nearly 50% from its peak, early investors and employees still have huge paper gains.
An analyst from Renaissance Capital put it bluntly: "Employees and early investors find it hard to resist the opportunity to sell because they hold massive gains and have strong incentives to realize returns and diversify holdings."
More importantly, some early investors want to cash out not for consumption—but to buy private shares of other companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Anduril. This money won’t stay in the account; it will flow directly to the next betting table.
So what is really happening today?
I believe this is not an ordinary unlock. This is a tsunami on the supply side.
At the time of listing, SpaceX’s circulating shares accounted for less than 5% of total shares, and scarcity supported the valuation.
Starting today, this scarcity is being systematically dismantled. Moreover, short sellers have already taken positions—currently about 30%-35% of tradable shares are shorted, with short sellers’ paper profits around $7 billion. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ 255 people fed USDT into a coffee they could never drink
Let me set the scene first. At the end of last year, a company called Fun Coffee started appearing on the streets of Hong Kong, China. They organized marathons, dinners, handed out flyers, and even invited TV celebrities to host events. They had physical stores, offices, and were properly registered.
Their public identity was a large coffee investment company based on Phu Quoc Island, Vietnam, claiming a capital scale exceeding $1 billion. If you passed by their event site back then, you probably wouldn’t have thought it was a scam.
The real business was inside the app. Download it, complete tasks, top up your account using cryptocurrencies like USDT. Nominally, you were investing in high-tech coffee equipment, gene optimization technology, agricultural machinery, with promised annual returns of 197% to 278%. The larger the amount and the longer the term, the higher the returns. They also set up multi-level commissions, rewarding you for recruiting others.
In July 2026, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission listed it as a suspicious investment product. Later that month, the app suddenly stopped operating, withdrawals were impossible, customer service disappeared, and the offices and stores were deserted.
By August 5, the Hong Kong police had received 255 reports, 30 more than before, with total losses around HKD 104 million. In Macau, the Judiciary Police arrested two women involved in 9 cases totaling about MOP 3.6 million. The police said they would contact victims and related parties during the investigation to identify the masterminds and their roles, responding to rumors that celebrities had hosted their events.
What I want to say is not how clever this scam was—it wasn’t clever at all. An annual return of 197% to 278% should give anyone who’s been in the market for six months goosebumps. What really hooked people wasn’t the yield, but the whole offline setup: marathons, dinners, celebrities, physical stores, registered company. These things sent the same message: we have a physical presence, we can’t run away.
And they chose USDT to collect money. This step was the harshest in the entire design. Bank transfers have counterparty information, transaction records, and traceability. USDT transfers are just a string of addresses. You can see on-chain where the money went, but tracing it and recovering it are two different things. A recent report said stablecoin issuers take over two hours on average from submitting a freeze proposal to actually executing it. The people monitoring the proposal have long left; those stuck are people who don’t even know they need to watch.
There’s a simple way to screen these scams yourself. Check if they promise fixed returns, if they allow you to use bank cards for transactions, and if their returns depend on how many people you recruit. If any one of these three is true, no matter how good their marketing looks, you can cross them off immediately.
Does this affect the market? Honestly, no. HKD 104 million can’t move a single BTC candlestick. BTC is still grinding between 64,000 and 65,000, just breaking above the 200-week moving average at 63,657, but volume hasn’t followed. However, accumulating cases like this will have other consequences: regulators will tighten requirements on stablecoin payments and real-name verification for on-chain transfers. That’s something to face in three months, not today’s market.
Has anyone around you ever talked about projects promising over 200% annual returns? How did you respond back then? The current BTC retracement to $64,500 is very critical; this level can be regarded as the short-term structural pivot between bullish and bearish sentiment.
If BTC effectively breaks below $64,500 and then fails to reclaim that level on a rebound, it indicates that the previous high-level support structure is being compromised, and $64,500 may shift from support to resistance. In this case, I will continue to hold a small short position and observe the support around $64,200–$64,000 and $63,700–$63,900 sequentially.
However, a single downward wick is insufficient to confirm a valid breakdown. A more reliable signal would be a 15-minute candlestick closing below $64,500, followed by a rebound that is resisted at this area and then another break below the rebound low.
Conversely, if BTC tests $64,500 but cannot effectively break below it, or briefly dips below and quickly recovers, it means the selling pressure below is absorbed by buyers, and the price may continue to consolidate at a high level and retest $65,000.
In this scenario, I would consider establishing a light ultra-short-term long position, but this position is only for trading the rebound near $64,850–$65,000 and should not be viewed as a medium-term trend long. Since there is still significant supply between $65,000–$65,200, it is advisable to take profits in batches near this resistance area rather than chasing a breakout.
The most important thing right now is not to prematurely predict whether BTC will rise or fall, but to observe the price reaction around $64,500: a break and failed rebound means bears regain control; a false break and quick recovery means bulls still maintain short-term structural advantage. $BTC #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $SNDK SanDisk plummeted 15% yesterday, the core reason is not that the company deteriorated, but that market expectations cooled down and high-level profit-taking occurred.
My view:
In the short term, don't rush to bottom-fish; first see if it can stabilize around $120. If it breaks the previous low, it indicates funds are still retreating and may continue to seek support.
From a medium to long-term perspective, AI data center storage demand remains the main theme, but SanDisk has shifted from a low-valuation cyclical stock to a high-expectation growth stock, so further gains require continuous performance validation.
Strategy:
✅ Already holding: Don't panic sell because of a one-day plunge; observe AI storage demand and next quarter's order situation.
✅ Want to buy: Don't go all in at once; wait for market sentiment to release and build positions in batches.
❌ Not recommended to chase highs; short-term rebounds can easily turn into trapped positions. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 $SNDK Evening report! Michael Saylor's recent statement about “BTC dropping to $5,000 while still maintaining over-collateralization” is not just a simple verbal reassurance, but a public deep "stress test" of MicroStrategy (MSTR)'s debt structure.
From a macro perspective, this statement has the following profound impacts on the market and MSTR's valuation logic:
1. Completely cutting off the panic narrative of a "liquidation chain reaction"
* Market psychology: Whales and institutional investors worry most about the "forced liquidation" of the largest holders. Saylor clearly sets the liquidation line at $5,000, meaning even if the crypto market suffers an extreme 90% drawdown, MSTR will not be forced to sell.
* Impact: This establishes a "psychological defense line" for $BTC. When the market knows the largest single holder has extremely high leverage tolerance, the short-selling momentum against $BTC weakens due to the lack of "liquidation stampede" expectations.
2. Analysis of the "antifragility" of the debt structure
* Low-cost leverage: Most of MSTR's debt consists of long-term convertible preferred bonds, many with zero or very low interest rates. This debt structure does not rely on short-term price fluctuations but on long-term expectations from 2028 to 2032.
* Financial bottom line: Even if $BTC crashes, as long as MSTR can maintain cash flow from its software business or has enough unpledged $BTC (currently MSTR holds a large amount of unpledged assets) as supplementary collateral, its liquidation risk is nearly zero. This demonstrates the robustness of its "financial engineering" to Wall Street.
3. Logical reconstruction of $MSTR stock premium
* Leverage anchor: Saylor's statement reshapes $MSTR from a "high-risk leveraged instrument" into a "Bitcoin index with an extremely high margin of safety."
* Valuation preference: The logic for capital inflow into $MSTR will shift from "speculating on volatility" to "long-term certainty." Against the backdrop of August 6, 2026, with hard tech targets like $SNDK locking downside through buybacks, $MSTR is effectively mimicking this "locking risk through capital structure design."
4. Macro transmission to the cryptocurrency market
* Asset characterization of $BTC: This statement further strengthens $BTC's status as a "perpetual asset." If top institutions can withstand a $5,000 stress test, then $BTC fluctuating in the $50,000 - $60,000 range is endowed with stronger institutional holding confidence.
* Sector linkage: This move stabilizes the long-term expectations of related tokens holding large $BTC reserves, such as $STX (Bitcoin Layer 2) and $ORDI ecological assets.
5. In-depth advice: What to watch next?
* Monitor the premium rate between MSTR and BTC: Currently, $MSTR usually trades at a 1.5x - 2.5x premium relative to its net asset value (NAV). After Saylor reveals the "liquidation bottom line," this premium is expected to remain firm in a volatile market.
* Key position monitoring: Although the liquidation line is at $5,000, the market's "emotional stop-loss" is usually near MSTR's average holding cost (currently around $38,000). As long as $BTC stays above this price, MSTR acts as a perfect liquidity siphon.
* Risk warning: The only factor that can break this logic is a credit market collapse. If the US Treasury market faces systemic risk causing corporate bond refinancing difficulties, Saylor will face enormous financial pressure even if not liquidated.
Conclusion: Saylor's statement is a "final ultimatum" to institutional investors—not to attempt to liquidate MSTR by crashing the market. This greatly consolidates $BTC's bottom support under the complex macro environment of 2026. Operationally, $MSTR pullbacks are often long-term golden buying opportunities to enter the $BTC ecosystem. $BTC $ETH $MSTR
✨Coins with continuous capital inflow today:
1.$BTC
2.$ETH
3.$SOL
4.$PEPE
5.$WIF
6.$FET
7.$ONDO
8.$LINK
9.$RNDR
10.$SU
11.$NEAR
12.$TAO
13.$PENDLE
14.$JUP
15.$LDO He said he wouldn't panic even if it dropped to 5000, so do you panic?
Saylor spoke again. The exact words were, even if BTC drops to $5,000 each, we are still over-collateralized relative to our debt, and we are completely fine.
What does 5000 mean? BTC is currently just over 64,000; dropping to 5000 means falling more than 90% from here. The normal reaction to hearing this number is to think he's bluffing. But if I focus on the second half of his statement, the meaning changes.
He continued, we raised about $65 billion in total to buy BTC, but most of it is not debt.
This is the key point. Over-collateralization basically means the collateral is worth more than the borrowed money. As long as this relationship holds, creditors won’t come knocking. The reason he dares to say it could drop as low as 5000 is not because of the coin price, but because the denominator is small. If only a small portion of the $65 billion is borrowed, and the rest was raised by issuing stock or preferred shares, then that portion of money has no maturity date, no repayment obligation, so there’s no risk of forced liquidation.
So strictly speaking, what he said isn’t a bluff, but it’s not what you might think. The risk hasn’t disappeared; it’s just moved elsewhere. Borrowed money has a maturity date; raised money does not. The cost is that every time new shares are issued, the existing shareholders’ stake is diluted. If the coin price doesn’t drop, the number of coins per share held by shareholders gradually decreases. This accounting isn’t reflected in the liquidation price but in the coin amount per share.
Why does this matter to us? There are many publicly listed companies hoarding coins in the market. The scariest scenario is when the coin price crashes, and these companies are forced by creditors to sell coins, triggering a chain reaction of sell-offs. To judge whether a company will become a selling pressure source, don’t just listen to how loudly the boss shouts; look at whether their money is borrowed or raised. The borrowed portion is the fuse; the raised portion at most just makes the financial statements look bad.
This also explains another phenomenon. Recently, a company holding 18,712 BTC saw its book value shrink from 1.64 billion to 1.1 billion, a floating loss of over 500 million, without selling a single coin. If they don’t sell, it’s just a number on the report; selling turns it into real cash loss. Big coin holders prefer to use coins as collateral to borrow money rather than sell directly; the logic is the same.
On the market, these words have no impact on today’s candlestick. BTC is still hovering between 64,000 and 65,000, just breaking above the 200-week moving average at 63,657, but volume hasn’t followed. What’s really useful is that it gives a clue: check the maturity schedules and conversion prices of these companies’ convertible bonds. Which year they mature in concentration, and at what price the clauses trigger—that’s when trouble might happen.
In the short term, this kind of statement is emotional noise; just listen and move on. In the long term, the financing structure of coin-hoarding companies determines how heavy the selling pressure will be in the next downturn. This variable is more concrete than any moving average.
By the way, Coinbase’s premium is still -0.11, negative for 79 consecutive days, with no return of domestic spot buying in the US. No matter how loud the statements are, it’s not reflected in the market price spread.
Will you feel reassured to hold just because the boss says we are completely fine, or would you rather check the financial reports yourself? #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩