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Fed September rate hike expectations heat up The market pricing for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has risen to 56.5%, with macro readings leaning bearish for crypto risk assets. For BTC and ETH, the key is not the single probability jump, but that the dollar interest rate expectations are suppressing risk appetite again: if U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen simultaneously, short-term leveraged funds will be more cautious, and altcoins will face more obvious pressure. Trading focus should be on whether subsequent inflation and employment data continue to support the rate hike path; before rate hike expectations cool down, rebounds are more likely to encounter selling pressure. Source: BlockBeats #BTC #ETH #Crypto100W Tonight's non-farm payroll data has been released, and the answer is finally revealed. - The expected increase was 80,000, but the actual figure was -23,000, a difference of 100,000 people. The previous value was still a positive 57,000, but this month it directly turned negative. However, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Wage growth was only 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%. Employment is contracting, unemployment is decreasing, and wage growth is slowing. These three signals together indicate that the data quality itself is questionable. Institutions are more sophisticated than us; they know the initial non-farm payroll figures are often "corrected," and the numbers for the month are frequently unreliable. They directly use this seemingly positive data to set up short positions. The drop of SanDisk $SNDK from 1326 to 1200 is the best proof. Good news came out, but some are selling at the highs. Between the non-farm release and the US stock market opening, the market reaction was also quite interesting. Gold $XAU had already risen above 4300 before the non-farm data, then surged to 4370 after the release, hit resistance, and then pulled back to around 4340. My current view is that the trend hasn't changed; it remains a bullish structure. Weak employment → rate hike cooling → weak dollar → gold rises, this chain is intact, but whether 4370 can be effectively broken is the key next step. Compared to other positions, the $SPCX long strategy is probably the one I'm happiest with today. It surged from 115 directly to 129, nearly a 13% increase. It rose 6% on the unlock day, and surged again tonight after the non-farm data. The negative impact of the unlock has been digested, and institutions are willing to hold at this level. But friends, RSI has already exceeded 85, indicating short-term overbought conditions, so be cautious chasing the highs. If volume breaks through around 130, the space opens up; if it can't break through, it may pull back to around 120. As for SanDisk $SNDK, I really don't understand this move. There was little fluctuation before and after the non-farm release, but as soon as the US market opened, it plunged from 1326 to 1200, barely holding 1200. Good news came out, but the market didn't buy it. Several attempts to rescue with positive news failed to bring SanDisk back. It can only be said that the AI storage expectations are still being revised, and the market has moved from a "supply shortage narrative" to a phase of testing whether high expectations can be fulfilled. The non-farm night has passed, but the direction is not yet fully determined. Employment turned negative but unemployment fell, this contradiction prevents the market from reaching a consensus for now. So the truly decisive variable should be next week's CPI. #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ 📉 $SNDK: Why Did the Stock Fall After a Huge Earnings Beat? At first glance, the reaction looks confusing. Q4 Revenue: $8.965B Market Estimate: ~$8.4B That's a significant beat. So why did $SNDK sell off? The answer is simple: Markets trade expectations, not just results. 1️⃣ Good News Was Already Priced In Sandisk delivered an impressive quarter, but investors were already expecting exceptional numbers after the stock's massive rally. When expectations become extremely high, even excellent earnings can trigger “sell the news” behavior. 2️⃣ Forward Guidance Matters More Than the Rear-View Mirror The real question for investors was: “What's next?” Sandisk guided fiscal Q1 revenue to approximately $10.3B-$10.8B, with the midpoint slightly below Wall Street's expectations. So the market saw: ✅ Excellent Q4 ⚠️ Very high expectations ⚠️ Forward guidance not strong enough to create another major upside surprise That combination can trigger profit-taking. 3️⃣ This Is Still a Highly Cyclical Memory Business Memory and storage companies can experience powerful earnings cycles driven by pricing, supply, demand and capacity conditions. When a cyclical stock has already experienced an enormous repricing, investors become much more sensitive to signs that growth or margins may be approaching a peak. 4️⃣ The Market Doesn't Reward “Good Enough” This is one of the most important lessons in trading: Beat expectations → not necessarily bullish. If the market expected a huge beat and the company delivers only a normal beat, traders can still sell. Price reacts to the difference between expectations and reality, not simply whether the numbers are objectively good. $SNDK #SNDK #Stocks #StockMarket #Earnings #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #Semiconductors #AI# #DailyOrbit Storage Big Three: Rise Then Fall, Rebound Faces Resistance On the evening of August 7 (Eastern Time, August 7), the three major U.S. stock indexes all opened higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.35% and the Nasdaq up 0.75%. The storage sector showed strength in pre-market trading—SK Hynix $SKHYNIX rose over 6%, SanDisk $SNDK nearly 5%, and Micron $MU technology up nearly 4%. However, after the market opened, the storage sector quickly turned negative, all turning green (declining). At the time of writing, Seagate Technology fell 5.59%, SK Hynix fell 3.16%, Western Digital fell 3.11%, and SanDisk fell 0.61%. In after-hours trading, storage chip concept stocks strengthened again, with Western Digital up over 4%, Micron Technology and SK Hynix up 3%, and SanDisk up 6%. Current Market Signal: Increasing Bull-Bear Divergence The after-hours rebound on August 8 indicates some funds are beginning to attempt bottom-fishing. But the intraday return to decline shows selling pressure has not been fully released. Some analysts point out that after the correction, storage stocks are "stuck in an awkward position, neither up nor down." Meanwhile, Polymarket prediction markets show traders believe there is an 85.5% probability that Micron's stock price will close above $700 by the end of the month, suggesting this round of selling may have been excessive. "Blowout" earnings but stock price plummets—this storage crash reveals the market's extreme sensitivity to high valuations and capital expenditure pressure after the AI frenzy. When "all the good news is priced in" becomes consensus, even the most impressive numbers cannot prevent a phase of capital exit. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Bitcoin Market Update 📈 If you currently hold long positions in $BTC, consider moving your stop loss up to break even and partially take profits to lock in some gains. The key area to watch next is the $64,630–$65,620 resistance zone. If Bitcoin fails to effectively break through this area before the traditional financial market closes, the probability of a sideways consolidation over the weekend will significantly increase. Since weekends usually come with lower liquidity and reduced trading volume, the market is more prone to choppy, directionless movements. Of course, the above is just market observation and personal opinion. Always follow your own trading plan and strictly adhere to risk management principles. Wishing everyone successful trading. 🚀 $BTC #DailyOrbit #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ 🔥SpaceX's massive unlock triggers a rebound—Is this a bottom signal or a bull trap? Honestly, I watched the market closely on August 6. 911.5 million shares unlocked, with a market value in the hundreds of billions of dollars. In the past, such a supply shock would have caused the stock price to drop at least 10%. Instead, SpaceX rose 6% that day, with trading volume hitting 250 million shares, a one-and-a-half-month high. Even an experienced retail investor like me found this surprising. But after a careful review, there are actually signs behind this. [Wednesday's sharp drop already washed out the most panicked sellers] The day before the unlock, SpaceX released its first earnings report. Revenue was 7.8 billion, beating expectations and looking good, right? But capital expenditures were 18.4 billion, a 5.5-fold year-over-year increase, and AI investment was nearly 40% higher than analysts expected. Seeing this, the market immediately sold off, with a single-day plunge of 14%, pushing the stock down to $108, below the IPO price. What does this mean? Those who needed to sell, wanted to sell, or were forced to sell, all did so on Wednesday. The shares left on the unlock day were "dead bulls" and bottom-fishers. Selling pressure was released early, so the unlock day became a short-covering event. There's a market rule called "bad news fully priced in is good news," and SpaceX's case is a textbook example. [But don't rush to call the bottom; the real test is yet to come] This unlock is only the first step in SpaceX's nine-phase staggered unlock. Next in line are: 319 million shares on August 20, about 700 million in September, about 700 million in October, and by December, the float will surge from the current 600 million shares to 5.3 billion shares. The harshest will be June 2027, when Musk's 6 billion-plus shares will also unlock. In other words, this is just the appetizer; the main course hasn't arrived yet. Morgan Stanley's $300 target price is based on the fantasy of AI business generating 100 billion in revenue next year. But currently, SpaceX's AI investment is real cash burn, with revenue realization expected only in Q3 or even year-end. Facing continuous unlock supply, the stock price will find it extremely difficult to surge in one go. [Indirect impact on crypto community brothers] On the surface, SpaceX seems unrelated to crypto, but the connection is significant. First, Musk is the king of crypto traffic. If SpaceX's stock price remains depressed, Musk's personal wealth shrinks, reducing his energy and confidence to "promote" on social media. Don't underestimate this; the 2021 DOGE rally was directly linked to Musk's status. Second, SpaceX is a Nasdaq 100 heavyweight. Its correlation with BTC isn't as direct as Nvidia's, but the overall tech sector sentiment transmits. If SpaceX remains under pressure due to unlocks, the valuation of growth stocks will be suppressed, making it hard for BTC to remain unaffected. Third, if SpaceX's AI narrative is disproven, it will also hit crypto AI concept coins. After all, SpaceX's AI investment is "real cash burn," while many crypto AI projects don't even have the ability to burn money. [My view] In the short term, SpaceX may have a technical rebound in the $100-$110 range. Wednesday's plunge + retail bottom-fishing + short covering combined to push it up. But in the medium to long term, before the next batches of unlocks land, the stock price will likely remain weak and volatile. For traders, now is not the time to chase SpaceX. If you hold coins related to Musk's concept (like DOGE), be extra cautious recently. SpaceX's stock price volatility could be the next trigger to ignite or suppress these coins. The market is always like this: what you think is bad news landing may just be the start of a new round of battles. How long do you think SpaceX's rebound can last? Let's discuss in the comments.Here's a more humanized version with a stronger hook and a smoother flow: "The jobs report just dropped—and honestly, the numbers look ugly." 🤗 Extra! Extra! 🤗 July's US nonfarm payrolls didn't just miss expectations—they completely flipped the script. Markets were expecting +80,000 new jobs. Instead, payrolls contracted by 23,000, marking the first negative print in months. At the same time, inflation is still sitting stubbornly high at 3.8%. Think about the position the Federal Reserve is in right now: Cut rates too soon, and inflation could surge again. Raise rates further, and the labor market could crack. So what's left? Keep rates high, drain liquidity, and hope the economy survives the pressure. And that's where Bitcoin enters the conversation. The long-term picture isn't exactly bullish. Bitcoin thrives when liquidity is abundant and money is cheap. If the Fed stays trapped in "higher for longer," risk assets could continue to face headwinds. But here's the twist: markets don't always react logically in the short term. Bad economic data often sparks hopes that the Fed will eventually become less hawkish, which means BTC could actually bounce before reality sets in. A relief rally doesn't necessarily mean the macro environment has improved—it could simply be the market pricing in future expectations. For me, nothing has fundamentally changed. Until real monetary easing arrives, every rally feels more like noise than a new cycle. Patience is still the most valuable position. I'm not chasing candles. I'll wait for the opportunity that makes sense—even if that means sitting on the sidelines and watching the show for a while longer. #DailyOrbit BICO Quadruples in a Week: Risks Lurk Beneath the Frenzy If you've recently opened a market app, you’ve likely noticed the name $BICO. Over the past week, this Web3 infrastructure token focused on account abstraction and cross-chain messaging started at around $0.0117 and surged to a high of $0.0591, gaining over 400% in a week, with a single-day peak increase exceeding 75%. On August 7th, BICO ranked near the top of the altcoin gainers list. There are three main drivers behind this surge. First, the intensive launch of perpetual contracts—Aster DEX and AlphaX DEX successively introduced BICO contract products within a week, with the latter offering up to 50x leverage and zero fees, quickly attracting hot money inflows. Second, a short squeeze—before the surge, a large volume of short positions on BICO had accumulated; the price rally forced shorts to cover, further pushing prices up, with shorts losing over a million dollars in a single day. Third, narrative-driven momentum—the story of "cross-chain infrastructure" and "leader in account abstraction" was retold, attracting capital to follow the trend. Driven by BICO, the entire altcoin market also stirred. $UB rose 61% weekly, $ADA and $ALGO increased 24% and 13% respectively; $PUMP, $DODO, and $WLD also saw active trading. $HYPE, $ENA, $LINK, and $SOL were likewise among the popular lists. KAITO Sell-Off Chip Source Analysis Right after the staking positive news caused a price surge, a large bearish candle dropped. The funds sold can be divided into 4 categories: 1. Short-term contract longs (the largest part of this sell-off) 1. When the news came out, a large number of users rushed in to open long contracts, quickly pushing the coin price above 0.92; 2. The coin was severely overbought in the short term, and contract longs accumulated a large amount of unrealized profits; 3. Once the price stopped making new highs, a large number of longs took profits and closed positions; Closing long contracts = selling USDT to buy back coins, directly pushing the market down, and a chain of position closures pulled out a large bearish candle. At the same time, some long positions were stopped out and liquidated, with the exchange automatically closing positions and selling, further accelerating the decline (longs killing longs). 2. Secondary market spot short-term profit takers (exchange spot) Spot users who had positioned at low levels before the positive news, once the staking announcement came out and the coin surged, directly sold at high levels to realize profits. • These people held coins early, either not for staking or were speculating on the positive news for short-term trading; • The positive news landing was an opportunity to sell, no need to stake on-chain, just sell and exit on exchanges like OKX. 3. On-chain staking old users (a small portion) Users who have already staked on the official website: 1. After the staking upgrade, some old users were dissatisfied with the new staking rules and chose to unlock and withdraw coins back to exchanges to sell; 2. Staking unlock has a cooling period, so coins won’t be dumped all at once, it’s a slow outflow and not the main force behind this large bearish candle. 4. Market makers/project custodial liquidity pool chips (a small amount) Market-making funds in Base chain DEX liquidity pools, after the market surge, market makers reclaim chips at high levels, which also brings some selling pressure. Key distinctions ✅ Not a large team unlock sell-off: This staking upgrade news did not release a large amount of team unlock tokens, and the team’s locked tokens have no new unlocks. This plunge is caused by short-term profit takers fleeing, not by the project team dumping. Market phenomena corresponding 1. Positive news causes a price surge → retail and short-term funds rush in to go long; 2. No new funds continue to take over, profit takers collectively take profits and exit, directly causing a sell-off after the positive news is realized; 3. This is what insiders often say: positive news is actually negative news. Supplement Compared to BICO: BICO is a sector heat play without landing positive news, so it remains at a high level; KAITO has news landing, so the positioned funds directly cash out and run, causing a large bearish candle. If you plan to stake on-chain: now you must understand that staking earns rewards but cannot hedge against coin price decline risk. Staking locks coins, but the coin price can still fall. TRX is trading around $TRX 0.32758, showing sideways movement and building energy for its next big move. 📊 Chart Highlights * Current Price: $TRX 0.32758 * Moving Averages: * MA5: 0.32768 * MA10: 0.32735 * MA20: 0.32799 * 24h Range: High of $TRX 0.32853 / Low of $0.32641 * Recent Low Support: ~$0.32147 (Hit on 07/21/2026) * Recent High Resistance: ~$0.33365 (Hit on 07/13/2026) ⏳ Historical Highs & Lows (Old Up & Downs) To understand TRX's path, we look back at its major price swings: * All-Time Low (ATL): ~$0.00078 (September 2017) * Early Bull Peak: ~$0.30 (January 2018) * All-Time High (ATH): ~$0.43 (December 2024) * 180-Day Gain: Up +17.93%, showing steady strength over the long run despite short-term consolidation. 🔮 Short-Term & Best All-Time Predictions 1. Short-Term Target (Next 1–2 Weeks) * Bullish Scenario: If TRX breaks above resistance at $0.3335, expect a quick pump toward $0.3450 – $0.3600. * Bearish Scenario: If price drops below key support at $0.3215, it may retest $0.3100 before finding buyers again. 2. Best Prediction Of All Time (Long-Term) * TRX has built a solid, long-term higher-low structure over the years. With strong utility as a settlement network for stablecoins, a breakout above its previous All-Time High of $0.43 could send TRX into price discovery toward $0.50 – $0.65 in the next major crypto bull cycle. Here's a more natural, engaging version with a stronger hook while keeping the core message intact: 🚨 Tonight's payroll report could decide Bitcoin's next $1,000 move—and most traders are looking the wrong way. Everyone is asking the same question: after the non-farm payroll numbers come out, will Bitcoin explode higher or collapse? My view: the odds favor weaker-than-expected data, but that doesn't automatically mean Bitcoin goes straight up. The more likely scenario is a sharp dip first, followed by a rebound. If you're chasing longs around $64,800, you might be walking into a trap. Why the market is nervous Economists expect roughly 83,000 new jobs in July, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. But some early signals are flashing warning signs. Vanguard's estimates, based on retirement-account data, point to just 18,000 new jobs. ADP reported only 44,000 private-sector jobs, far below expectations. Several analysts now believe the risk is skewed toward a weaker labor market. If payrolls disappoint, expectations for tighter monetary policy could fade, the dollar could weaken, and risk assets like Bitcoin may find support. On the other hand, the upside surprise scenario shouldn't be ignored. Analysts at major banks have warned that a payroll number above 150,000 could revive fears of higher rates for longer, putting pressure on stocks and crypto alike. What does the chart say? Bitcoin is trading near $64,800, but short-term indicators are flashing caution. The 1-hour RSI is already above 80. The 15-minute RSI is around 86. Price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band. In other words, momentum is strong, but the market is stretched. The most likely scenario: dip first, rebound later My base case is simple: Initial sell-off toward $64,000–$64,300 after the data release. Support gets tested and confirmed. Buyers step back in, pushing price toward $65,000–$65,500. If payrolls come in dramatically below expectations, Bitcoin could even make a run toward $66,000. The key level remains $65,000. Until bulls. #DailyOrbit This week's BTC and ETH market analysis. In the past, BTC led the smaller coins up and down together, but in the past two weeks, the situation has completely reversed. ETH has been actively strengthening throughout, hitting 1950 several times, just a breath away from the 2000 mark, while BTC has been stuck under pressure around the 67000 level, unable to break out with volume, effectively stalling ETH's upward momentum. Let's first clarify the core underlying logic: in this round of rate cut expectations, capital preferences have completely changed. BTC is digital gold, a safe-haven ballast stone. When rate cut expectations first emerged, the initial reaction was to hold BTC for safety and value preservation. But once the rate cut probability became certain and liquidity easing expectations materialized, speculative funds immediately moved to high-elasticity assets, with ETH as the top choice. ETH is tied to the Nasdaq, with strong growth attributes, and is much more sensitive to changes in the US dollar and US Treasury yields than BTC. In a loose monetary environment, incremental funds naturally favor ETH. Looking at institutional capital flows, the divergence is visible to the naked eye. Recently, BTC ETFs have seen periodic outflows, with many institutions reducing positions at high levels to realize profits. A large amount of previous trapped and profit-taking positions have accumulated around 67000, and every time BTC approaches this level, selling pressure immediately emerges, leaving bulls without the confidence to push through in one go. In contrast, ETH spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, BlackRock's staked ETH funds keep attracting capital, and with over one-third of ETH staked and locked, circulating supply is decreasing. When buying enters, resistance to price increases is minimal, which is the fundamental reason for ETH's stronger performance. Another key point: capital is rotating from BTC to ETH, with BTC becoming a liquidity reservoir. Whales and large holders now have a simple strategy: hold BTC as a base position without moving it, and use idle funds to increase positions in Ethereum, Layer 2 solutions, and the DeFi ecosystem. BTC is only responsible for stabilizing the market base and no longer leads the charge. Without BTC breaking out with volume to drive overall market sentiment, even if ETH has strong momentum, it dares not move independently in a one-sided rally. This explains why ETH, despite its strong performance, has failed several times to break through the 2000 level. The emotional anchor of the entire crypto market remains Bitcoin. If BTC cannot hold above 67000, overall market confidence is insufficient, and major funds hesitate to aggressively buy ETH, fearing a sudden BTC crash that would drag the whole market down. Therefore, every time ETH rallies to key resistance levels, funds actively pull back to observe. A simple summary of the current market situation: BTC: 67000 is the bulls' critical threshold. If it can't break through, overall market sentiment will struggle to fully recover. Short-term support is at 64500; holding this level maintains range-bound trading, breaking below signals weakness. ETH: The logic for independent strength remains unchanged. 1900 is the dividing line between strong and weak. As long as this level holds, the strong trend continues. The first resistance above is 1955. Once BTC breaks out with volume above 67000, ETH breaking through 2000 will be a matter of minutes. A straightforward piece of advice: at this stage, don't stubbornly hold BTC waiting for gains. Structural market trends have arrived. BTC is responsible for holding the base, ETH for generating returns. Going forward, prioritize watching whether BTC can break 67000; if it does, increase ETH positions accordingly. If BTC remains under pressure and range-bound, ETH is only suitable for buying on dips, never chasing highs. $SPCX just created an unlocking date table, 1. SpaceX Core Unlock Dates and Circulating Supply Changes Table SpaceX does not use the conventional 180-day uniform lock-up period but adopts a phased unlocking rule. As of December 8 this year, the tradable share ratio will increase from less than 5% at IPO to about 40%. 2. Analysis of Whether It Is Worth Bottom-Fishing and Buying Now Since SpaceX's listing peak ($225.64), it has retraced nearly 50%. The current stock price (about $115) has fallen below the IPO issue price of $135. The current market shows a clear bull-bear divergence of "institutional risk-averse selling and retail investors bottom-fishing." Whether it is worth buying depends on your investment horizon and judgment of the following core logic: 1. Core Logic Supporting Bottom-Fishing (Bullish Factors) Starlink business has strong "self-sustaining" capability: Starlink is currently SpaceX's only stable profitable segment, with Q2 revenue of $4.29 billion, user count doubling to 12 million, and operating profit margin reaching 38.6%, forming a safety cushion for the company's value. Scarce "Aerospace + AI" long-term narrative: SpaceX simultaneously holds the world's leading commercial rocket launch capability, low-earth orbit satellite network, and integrated AI computing layout. Retail investors generally view the current decline as a sentiment-driven short-term adjustment and are optimistic about its long-term explosive potential. Historical unlocking patterns and insider reluctance to sell: Historical data shows that the first batch of share unlocks often forms a buyable bottom. Additionally, due to the current significant price drop, most early investors are still in a floating profit state even at current prices, but their willingness to sell is not strong, so actual supply entering the market may be lower than expected. 2. Core Risks to Watch Out For (Bearish Factors) Huge AI capital expenditures raise cash flow concerns: Q2 capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion (far exceeding expectations), mostly invested in AI computing infrastructure. The market worries that Starlink's profits may not sustain covering the huge investments, extending the profit realization cycle. Unlocking selling pressure not fully released: August 6 was only the first wave of unlocking; multiple rounds of rolling unlocks and large-scale unlocking after Q3 earnings remain until December. With supply continuously expanding, short-term stock price volatility is significant, and rebounds lack sustained catalysts. Valuation reversion and short-seller pressure: Early listing overextended future expectations; current valuation is in a digestion phase. Meanwhile, short positions continue to rise (exceeding 30% of float), with shorts profiting well from recent declines, so short-term stock price still faces downward pressure. 3. Investment Summary Short-term traders: Blind bottom-fishing is not recommended. In the short term, the unlocking window, capital expenditure pressure, and short-selling funds' game will continue to suppress the stock price. Before unlocking selling pressure is fully released and AI business returns become clear, the stock price will likely maintain wide fluctuations or continue to test lows. Medium to long-term investors: If optimistic about the long-term industrial narrative of commercial aerospace and integrated AI computing, the current valuation pullback may provide a window for phased accumulation. However, closely monitor two key indicators: first, whether Starlink's profitability can continue to improve to offset R&D investment; second, whether the AI computing business can gradually generate positive cash flow. I still maintain this view unchanged: as long as it is a bear market, there is no way for prices to rise in August. Historically, only in 2023, when it was not a bear market, did August see a rise; in other years, it was a decline. Although recent data has been mostly positive, there hasn't been much of a price increase. These data also do not indicate that the Federal Reserve will immediately change course. If inflation cools down, the Fed might turn, but the inflation data has not been released yet, so no one knows who will come out on top."Tonight's non-farm payroll report could decide whether Bitcoin breaks $65,000—or sends late buyers straight into a trap." Everyone wants to know the same thing: after the jobs data drops, will Bitcoin explode higher or collapse? My view: the most likely scenario is a sharp dip first, followed by a rebound. At current levels around $64,800, chasing longs doesn't offer an attractive risk-to-reward. Patience may pay far better than FOMO tonight. The market expects roughly 83,000 new jobs in July, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. But beneath the surface, warning signs are appearing. Vanguard's estimates, based on retirement-account data, suggest job growth could be as low as 18,000. Meanwhile, the latest ADP report showed only 44,000 private-sector jobs added, far below expectations. If the official numbers disappoint, expectations for further tightening could fade, the dollar may weaken, and risk assets such as Bitcoin could find room to recover. There's another side to the story. JPMorgan warned that a strong report—above 150,000 jobs—could push the S&P 500 down nearly 2%, as investors would price in higher interest rates for longer. With market consensus sitting just above 80,000, many traders believe the downside surprise is more likely. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is already looking stretched. The 1-hour RSI is above 80, while the 15-minute RSI sits near 86, both signaling overbought conditions. Price is also hugging the upper Bollinger Band, with $65,000 acting as major resistance. That is why the higher-probability setup looks like this: • Initial sell-off toward $64,000–64,300 to test support. • If buyers step in, a rebound toward $65,000–65,500 becomes possible. • A significantly weaker-than-expected report could even trigger a move toward $66,000. But until Bitcoin breaks $65,000 with strong volume, blindly chasing longs could be a costly mistake. The biggest money isn't made by predicting the first move—it's made by waiting for the market to reveal its hand #DailyOrbit Major news has been released! Is it positive? At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the Nonfarm Payrolls will be released, and the US stock market is about to face a critical choice. At 20:30 this Friday night, the July Nonfarm Employment Report will be published. This is the most important employment data after the Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting and will directly rewrite the September rate expectations. All assets including US stocks, US bonds, and crypto will be affected. Previously, the ADP small nonfarm data was significantly below expectations, which has already served as a warning to the market, with the market betting on a gradual cooling of employment. Three data scenarios and their corresponding US stock market trends: Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected, wages rise simultaneously Employment is hot, delaying rate cut expectations, US bond yields rise. High-valuation AI tech and storage sectors bear the heaviest pressure; growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow Jones value blue chips are relatively resilient, leading to a differentiated market. Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker, unemployment rate rises The market will strengthen rate cut expectations, US bond yields fall, benefiting tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware may see a recovery rebound. But beware of a risk: if data is too poor, it may trigger market concerns about economic recession, causing a short-term broad decline. Scenario 3: Data basically matches expectations Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold. The US stock market continues the current split pattern, Dow Jones is relatively strong, Nasdaq fluctuates at high levels, and the market returns to earnings report logic with continued sector rotation. Putting aside Nonfarm, the upcoming US market outlook: 1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility after earnings disproof. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the earnings-driven expectation downgrade issue has not completely disappeared. Going forward, focus on whether MU's key support can hold; if it holds, it represents sectoral differentiated recovery; if it breaks down effectively, this round of storage market will enter mid-term valuation digestion. Do not mistake the oversold rebound for a new main upward wave. 2. Market structural differentiation will continue. Stocks with earnings guidance exceeding expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally is over, making stock picking more difficult. 3. Risks still cannot be ignored. $SPCX faces huge unlocking pressure, which will occasionally disturb the market and amplify intraday spike volatility. Key stocks to watch: $MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD Momentum fading, capital exiting stocks: $BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA Waiting for signal confirmation observation pool: $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS Strong stocks favored by capital: $JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP Current market logic summary: $BTC — The liquidity center of the crypto market, determining the overall market heat level $ETH — Institutional funds continue to build positions, slowly accumulating chips through oscillation $SOL — The resilient player in the Layer1 track, with considerable upside when the market starts $TAO & $WLD — AI mainline heat continues, repeatedly favored by capital $HYPE — Market speculation sentiment gauge, used to judge current risk appetite $DOGE & $ZEC — Retail sentiment window, directly reflecting short-term speculative heat Nonfarm payrolls collapsed, gold price surged to 4400, why didn’t your position follow? At 20:30 Beijing time, the data was released. The US July seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. The previous figure of 57,000 was also revised down to 20,000. Within one minute, several directions on the screen moved simultaneously. The US dollar index plunged nearly 30 points in the short term, hitting 99.67. Spot gold rallied about $40 to 4351.43, and New York futures gold directly surpassed 4400, up 2.36% intraday. The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped 4.29 basis points to 4.627%, and USD/JPY fell 80 points. US stock index futures surged, with Nasdaq futures up 0.79%. Looking again at BTC, 65078.77. It surged then pulled back. This is the most worth pondering scene tonight. Traditional safe-haven and rate-cut expectation assets are celebrating, while crypto surged briefly then retreated. First, clarify the data itself, which hides two traps. The first trap: May and June’s new jobs were cumulatively revised down by 103,000, with May cut from 129,000 to 63,000, and June from 57,000 to 20,000. The previously thought stable job market was an illusion created by revisions. The second trap is more twisted. Jobs decreased, but the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, lower than expected. This is not good news. Jobs lost but unemployment rate down usually means some people simply stopped looking and dropped out of the statistics. The denominator shrinks, making the rate look better but the reality worse. The key is how the market prices this. Interest rate futures show the expected rate hike by December dropped from 32 basis points before the data release to 28 basis points. Note, it’s a hike, not a cut. Despite the job collapse, the market still prices in nearly 30 basis points of hikes by year-end. Before the release, the probability of no change in September was 45.1%, and a 25 basis point hike was 54.9%.#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound #MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, halving the scale 1. Understand this non-farm contradictory data in plain language 1.【The bad side (bullish for crypto)】 Non-farm payrolls turned negative, decreasing by 23,000 jobs, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. Companies are not hiring and even starting layoffs; private sector hiring has also sharply declined, indicating the economy is indeed weakening. At the same time, hourly wages only rose by 0.1%, wages are stagnant, reducing the pressure of rising inflation. These two points, the market's first reaction: the Fed rate cut can be put on the agenda, liquidity should be loosened, which is positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. 2.【Contradictory drag point (bearish, suppressing a big rally)】 The strange thing: jobs decreased, but the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Simply put: it’s not that more people found jobs, but some people dropped out of the job-seeking pool and are no longer counted in unemployment statistics. Moreover, the original text emphasized: this is just one month’s data, not enough for the Fed to fully pivot to rate cuts. Officials won’t base their stance on a single data point to immediately signal massive easing or give the market a clear bullish reassurance. 2. Analyze the impact on Bitcoin price from two layers 1. Short-term sentiment layer (immediate reaction to the news) The data is clearly bullish but not explosively strong bullish - The market’s first wave will likely spike up, speculating on “rate cut expectations coming earlier,” with funds pushing a short-term premium - But since the unemployment rate didn’t worsen simultaneously, the bullish logic has flaws; after the spike, it’s very easy to see a pullback Once the market calms down, it will realize: it’s just one month’s data, the Fed won’t cut rates immediately, the bullish factor is priced in, and bulls will take profits and sell off. If you currently hold short positions, this is the biggest risk point: The market may first pump to lure longs, many will chase, then when it can’t rise further, it will reverse down—be very careful of a brief spike up to hit your stop loss. 2. Mid-term trend layer (pricing logic for the next 1-2 weeks) 1. The big picture expectation has changed: employment data turned negative, the market’s trading theme will gradually shift from “fighting inflation” to “worrying about economic weakness,” which is moderately bullish for crypto assets in the mid-term 2. But in the short term, there won’t be a one-sided explosive rally: the Fed will choose to wait and see, needing 1-2 more months of continuous employment data to confirm the trend, and won’t immediately release a clear rate cut signal. The market will very likely not go straight up unilaterally but will move in wide oscillations, with back-and-forth shakeouts, bulls and bears taking turns to harvest $BTC $BICO has gone nearly 5× in a very short time, but history shows that vertical moves rarely continue forever. Biconomy sits at the intersection of two of crypto's hottest narratives right now: Account Abstraction (ERC-4337) and AI agents. That story, combined with its tiny valuation and 100% token circulation, has attracted a wave of speculative capital and pushed the price into overdrive. Why did it explode? • AI agent and Web3 infrastructure narratives are heating up, and Biconomy is one of the established projects in the space. • There is no major token unlock pressure left, removing one of the biggest long-term bearish concerns. • After falling from its all-time high, BICO spent months at the bottom, making it highly sensitive to fresh inflows. • The protocol already supports hundreds of dApps across multiple chains, giving traders a fundamental story to speculate on. But the risks are impossible to ignore. • RSI has already entered overbought territory, increasing the probability of profit-taking. • Token ownership remains highly concentrated, meaning large holders can heavily influence price action. • The token still lacks a strong value-capture mechanism such as revenue sharing or burns. • Macro events, especially today's non-farm payroll data, could trigger sharp volatility across the entire crypto market. Key levels to watch: Support: 0.033–0.034 USDT Major support: 0.027–0.029 USDT Resistance: 0.044–0.046 USDT Major resistance: 0.052–0.055 USDT My base case is a period of violent consolidation rather than a straight move higher. Narrative-driven rallies can run much longer than expected, but when momentum fades, small-cap tokens tend to fall much faster than they rise. Don't confuse a strong narrative with guaranteed long-term value. #DailyOrbit If you still believe the next bull market is AI-driven and have heavily invested in high-volatility AI assets like Nvidia and Meta, then your tech portfolio must include Apple. Because Apple is the safest haven asset in tech stocks, most like gold. Just look at some data: In 2025, Apple's net profit is 112 billion, while its capital expenditure is only 12.7 billion. Meta's net profit is 60.5 billion, with capital expenditure of 72.2 billion. Microsoft's net profit is 101.8 billion, with capital expenditure of 64.6 billion. Google's net profit is 132.2 billion, with capital expenditure of 91.4 billion. Apple earns over 110 billion dollars a year, but only needs to invest just over 10 billion in fixed assets. Apple will develop AI but won't deliberately join the AI arms race. If AI continues to boom, Apple can still benefit from edge AI, device upgrade cycles, and ecosystem upgrades. If AI cools down someday, others will have already built data centers worth hundreds of billions, but Apple will still have huge profits and cash flow BREAKING: $SPCX is up 25% in the last two days despite $100 billion of shares unlocking. 911.5 million shares became eligible to sell yesterday, roughly 1.4 times the entire float. The stock has gone straight up since. Investors often short a stock ahead of an unlock to lock in a price, then close those shorts once the shares are free to sell. 34% of the float was shorted going into it.In 2023, the SEC repeatedly delayed the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. However, ETF issuers did not give up; instead, they continuously adjusted their plans and refined the details, ultimately gaining approval in 2024 and becoming a key catalyst for the start of a new bull market. Now, in 2026, the Clarity Act is once again facing round after round of delays. History rarely repeats itself simply, but similar rhythms are worth paying attention to. Short-term obstacles do not mean a change in the long-term direction. True opportunities often belong to those who remain patient amid uncertainty and plan ahead. What will happen in the future, time will tell. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto In-depth Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market in Early August 2026 (Dual Bull and Bear Explosions, Altcoin Harvest Wave) I. Core Logic of the Overall Market: Institutional Support, but Retail Sentiment Completely Collapsed 1. Bitcoin Market Breakdown BTC has long been supported by continuous inflows from U.S. stock spot ETFs, with a weekly net inflow exceeding $700 million, which ensures there is no basis for a sustained crash or sharp decline in the overall market. The key support zones below have sufficient buying strength. However, selling pressure above is heavy. Every slight rally is met with large profit-taking sell-offs. Funds are unwilling to push prices up actively. The main players choose narrow-range consolidation to shake out retail investors, using prolonged sideways movement to exhaust their patience. In such a market, a one-sided trend is difficult to emerge. Heavy positions on either side are easily trapped by stop-hunts, which is the core reason for the recent continuous rise in contract liquidations. 2. Ethereum Fundamentals Detached from Market Performance Ethereum’s ecosystem continues to implement technical upgrades and institutions keep accumulating coins, so the long-term value logic remains intact. In the short term, the market completely follows BTC’s movement, lacking independent momentum. Combined with declining on-chain transfer activity and speculative funds flowing into small altcoins, ETH’s volatility continues to narrow, leaving very limited short-term profit opportunities. II. Divergence Among Major Coins: Regulatory Expectations Determine Strength - XRP, ADA: Suppressed by negative sentiment due to delays in overseas crypto regulatory legislation, funds are fleeing for safety, resulting in a continuous downtrend. These are currently weak coins in the overall market; - SOL, DOGE: Slightly resistant to decline due to hot narratives, with short-term speculative trading by retail investors, but no long-term capital inflow, resulting in poor sustainability of rebounds; Overall, major coins lack a unified upward logic, sector rotation is very fast, making broad rallies unlikely. III. Polarization in the Altcoin Market: Most Short-term Traps 1. A few hot MEME and new dog coins surge over 30% in a single day, creating a false illusion of quick wealth and attracting retail investors to chase highs; 2. The vast majority of old altcoins (such as low-liquidity coins like BICO) continue to decline steadily, liquidity dries up, rebounds are weak, and highs and lows keep moving downward. Key Risk Points: Low liquidity in small coins means that once the market moves against positions, 10x or 20x high-leverage contracts can easily liquidate instantly. Recently, many traders holding BICO long positions experienced price surges followed by declines and continuous downtrends. Holding losing positions without adding margin or stop-losses out of hope leads to 100% loss and forced liquidation. In a choppy downtrend market, subjective anticipation of rebounds and stubbornly holding long positions is the primary cause of retail losses. IV. Current State of the Contract Market: Massive Liquidations on Both Sides Recently, the market repeatedly experiences stop-hunts piercing support and resistance levels: 1. Bullish retail investors: pre-position long orders, after a slight rally the price falls continuously, refusing to stop loss or add margin after floating losses, resulting in liquidation; 2. Bearish retail investors: short positions betting on a crash, but the market is supported by institutional funds and does not fall deeply, rebounds then directly liquidate short positions; The market is in a consolidation range with no stable one-sided trend. Holding high-leverage positions is equivalent to exposing all principal risk. V. Two Core Variables Affecting Future Market 1. Regulatory Policy Delays in overseas crypto-related legislation increase market uncertainty. Institutional funds remain cautious, making it difficult to enter a trend bull market in the short term. If future regulations signal easing, the market will have a foundation for rally; otherwise, pressure will persist. 2. U.S. Stock Fund Flows ETF inflows are currently the only support for the overall market. If funds continue to flow out, BTC’s support below will fail directly, triggering a deep correction. VI. Objective Analysis and Trading Strategies Spot Traders 1. Extreme panic index range, not recommended to panic sell at lows, selling at the bottom area easily misses subsequent rebounds; 2. Avoid chasing short-term hype coins, hot speculation cycles are very short, chasing highs usually means buying at the peak; 3. Control position size within 30%, wait for the market to break out with volume before adding positions. Contract Traders 1. In a choppy market, strictly avoid heavy or full positions betting on one side. Leverage should be reduced to within 5x, abandon 10x or higher leverage; 2. Must set stop-losses, reduce positions or add margin immediately when floating losses expand, do not stubbornly hold positions; 3. Do not subjectively predict price direction, wait for a clear trend before trading with the trend, reduce opening positions during consolidation. Summary The current crypto market is in a bottom accumulation phase supported by institutions, with retail sentiment panicked and no one-sided trend. There is no short-term bull market surge nor systemic crash risk. The biggest market risk is not a large price drop but frequent short-term trading, high-leverage holding, and blindly following altcoins. Most losses come from poor personal trading habits rather than market trends. $BICO 8/08 Friendly reminder to my fellow "short sellers": especially those who are currently just "considering shorting" or "preparing to short" but haven't opened a position yet: please first check your own capital and anticipate how far the manipulator might pump the price (prepare mentally for very bad and exaggerated scenarios; in the past 5 days, 4 days have seen gains exceeding 45%, even 60%. Everyone should be mentally prepared for daily gains hitting 45%, 60%, or even more). If your margin can't hold up to 0.092, don't rush to short. Of course, you can try placing orders at 0.0764 or 0.0843, but remember to only use light positions, like an ant's stake, ideally investing just 1u, with low leverage of 2x, 3x, or 5x, treating it as a small entertainment; if you lose, you only lose 1u. (If your order doesn't get filled because you set it too high, that's fine too—no loss, no capital lost.) Calculate your initial entry investment ratio, entry price, and leverage carefully. The key is, if you want to short and win, never underestimate the manipulator. Your stop-loss and liquidation points need to be set quite high. So: if you don't have a fortune at home and don't have unlimited funds, please keep your positions light and leverage low. I am a hardcore short seller myself and really don't want to see a bunch of "fake short sellers" appearing as losers and tragic figures on OKX's community feed, embarrassing the "sacred short seller" reputation. Such people should voluntarily leave the short seller team and not drag the team down or tarnish our reputation. Let me also share a little knowledge for newcomers: for example, a group (not a team, no coordinated action, each fighting individually) going short—just as an example—when the price oscillates around 0.048, 0.049, 0.05, our opponents, the "long brothers," besides some risk-loving gamblers, generally don't dare to heavily enter high leverage at such high points to chase the price up. Are they really not afraid of a sudden crash? In recent days, we've seen at least four or five strong altcoins rise and then collapse quickly and violently. I won't name names, but I personally shorted three or four and won all, though it was thrilling. I always trade with real positions, verifiable and visible, not just talk or post one or two questionable screenshots. The long side is not to be feared; the only ones who can kill my short positions are two types: "madmen and fools who sneak into the short seller team," because their stop-losses are either set too conservatively low (intending to gamble big with small stakes) or their liquidation points are very low (heavy positions with high leverage: 10x liquidates if price rises less than 10%, 20x liquidates if price rises less than 5%). Whether it's cautious stop-loss or gambler's forced liquidation, the effects are huge and rapid. I personally experienced this twice within two days on two coins: within just seconds, price surged over 20%, 25%. What does this mean? If the initial phase has some people placing "isolated margin short orders," when these activate and fill, it's liquidation time. Even with 5x leverage, small 10u, medium 100u, or heavy 1000u positions get liquidated instantly. Because "pre-placed isolated margin orders" give you no time to add margin within 10 seconds; positions instantly flip to "long buy orders," fueling the price surge. Each liquidation order turning into a buy order pushes the price higher. For example, if a batch with stop-loss at 0.05 liquidates 1 million worth, that 1 million buy order instantly pushes price to 0.052, then another batch with stop-loss at 0.052 liquidates 2 million, pushing price higher again, and so on to 0.054, 0.056, 0.057... So, fools and madmen, please don't join the short seller team; you don't strengthen us, you only harm us. Also, many extreme spikes are not caused by manipulators or the opposing long side; the long side isn't just reckless rich people. Only those who got in early at low cost dare to hold long. Smart people don't chase high prices. When prices have risen a lot, sudden further rapid surges are caused not by the long side but by "pig teammates" in the short seller team who lose and liquidate, dragging down all short sellers... (This is a long text with no reward; 95% of people will just glance and think: "What is this, an essay? Too long, won't read," and walk away)... The above content is basically copied from my previous post with some data updated. Generally, after a high run, if there's another rapid rocket rise, this is basically the reason. I estimate I'm about to be killed by pig teammates too; I added positions too frequently and too close together, increasing my risk. If I get liquidated, I'll use my last money to send 2u each to 8 brothers as a token of appreciation with a cup of milk tea. Even if this account is liquidated to zero, I won't renege on the red envelopes on c2c. I must keep my word! If I survive and reverse with a small profit, to celebrate escaping death, I will also send the red envelopes. (In my previous post I said: shorting correctly and profiting means I won the bet and was right. So I wouldn't withhold the red envelopes.) #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 Tonight, one number could decide the fate of every market. In a few hours, the non-farm payroll report will answer the question traders have been arguing about for weeks: Is the U.S. economy finally slowing down, or is inflation about to make a comeback? The warning signs are mixed. ADP employment shocked the market with just 44,000 new jobs, the weakest reading of the year, pushing expectations for tonight's payrolls down to around 70,000–80,000. But at the same time, initial jobless claims have stayed below 200,000 for three straight weeks. Hiring is cooling, yet companies still aren't firing workers. That's why tonight's number matters so much. A weak report could crush expectations of further rate hikes, weaken the dollar, and send gold and Bitcoin even higher. A strong report could reignite inflation fears and put immediate pressure on risk assets. And the market is already placing its bets. Gold ($XAU) has reclaimed the 4,300 level and refuses to pull back despite looking technically overbought. The message is clear: traders are positioning for weaker employment data and easier monetary policy. Bitcoin ($BTC) remains stuck near 65,000. ETF inflows continue, but Coinbase premiums have been negative for 80 consecutive days. U.S. institutions are selling while Asian buyers absorb the supply. Gold has already chosen a direction—Bitcoin is still waiting for its signal. SanDisk ($SNDK) is another story. Despite beating earnings expectations and announcing a massive $14 billion buyback, the stock still sold off sharply. Expectations were simply too high. Weak payroll data could trigger a relief rally, while strong data may keep growth stocks under pressure. Then there's SpaceX. More than 900 million shares became eligible for sale on lockup expiration, and the market expected chaos. Instead, the stock climbed 6%. Institutions stepped in when everyone expected a collapse. Sentiment may have found a floor, but resistance near 120 remains a major test. Tonight, four markets are watching the same number: • Gold • Bitcoin • SanDisk • SpaceX #DailyOrbit Tonight, one number could change everything. In just a few hours, a single economic report could decide whether markets rally into the weekend or slam on the brakes. For weeks, investors have been asking the same question: Is the U.S. economy finally slowing enough to force the Federal Reserve to cut rates? Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls report may finally give us the answer. The weak ADP jobs report already dragged expectations down to just 70K–80K new jobs, the lowest forecast of the year. But there's a catch: initial jobless claims have stayed below 200K for three straight weeks. Hiring is cooling, but companies still aren't rushing to fire workers. That's why tonight's number matters so much. A weaker-than-expected report would strengthen the case for rate cuts, likely pushing the dollar lower while giving gold and Bitcoin fresh momentum. A stronger report, on the other hand, could reignite inflation fears, send Treasury yields higher, and put pressure on risk assets. And the market is already making its bets. Gold ($XAU) has climbed back above 4,300, suggesting traders are positioning for softer economic data. Even after a strong run, buyers aren't backing down. Bitcoin ($BTC) is hovering around 65,000. ETF inflows remain solid, but institutional selling in the U.S. and buying from Asia continue to balance each other out. Gold has already chosen a direction—Bitcoin is still waiting for its trigger. SanDisk ($SNDK) beat earnings and announced a massive $14 billion buyback, yet the stock still fell. Expectations were simply too high. A weak payroll report could spark a relief rally, while a strong number may keep pressure on growth stocks. Meanwhile, SpaceX surprised investors by rallying despite its lock-up expiration and the threat of heavy selling. That move suggests institutional demand is stronger than many expected, although resistance near 120 still stands in the way. Tonight isn't just another economic release. It's a reality check for the Fed, for Wall Street, and for every major asset class. Gold. Bitcoin. Stocks. #DailyOrbit "Tonight's jobs report could decide whether crypto gets fuel for another rally—or faces a wave of selling." The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data drops tonight. Market expectations: • Expected jobs added: 83,000 • Previous reading: 57,000 • Unemployment rate: 4.2% Why does it matter? The labor market is one of the biggest factors driving interest-rate decisions. A strong jobs market means the Federal Reserve has less reason to cut rates, which usually strengthens the dollar and puts pressure on risk assets like tech stocks, $BTC, and $ETH. A weaker labor market increases hopes for rate cuts, which tends to support stocks, gold, and crypto. Three scenarios to watch: 📌 60,000–100,000 jobs (most likely) A result near expectations would probably keep volatility under control, with markets staying range-bound. 📌 Above 130,000 jobs (very strong) Fewer rate-cut expectations, a stronger dollar, and potential pressure on tech stocks and crypto. 📌 Below 40,000 jobs (very weak) Rate-cut hopes could boost stocks, gold, and crypto. However, if unemployment jumps sharply, recession fears could take over and send markets lower. For $BTC and $ETH traders, tonight isn't just another economic report—it's a test of whether liquidity is about to increase or disappear. #DailyOrbit In early 2014, the $DOGE community did something that still feels magical to recall: a group of strangers on the internet crowdfunded $30,000 in three days to send the Jamaican bobsled team, which was almost unable to attend, to the Sochi Winter Olympics. A few months later, they raised over $60,000 to sponsor NASCAR driver Josh Wise, allowing a car with a dog head logo to race on the track. There was also "Doge4Water," which helped dig wells in Kenya. Back then, DOGE wasn’t an investment asset; it was an internet performance art where everyone competed to see who could have more fun and show more love. And now? Open the community, and it’s full of "When will it hit $1?" "Did Musk tweet?" "Will the ETF get approved?" Charity posts are rare, and engagement is almost zero. This isn’t because people’s hearts have turned cold, but because the holder structure has changed. Early holders were mostly Reddit users immersed in tipping culture, holding small amounts of coins worth little money, so spending them didn’t hurt. After the 2021 surge, DOGE became a retail investor’s position, with each coin backed by someone waiting to break even or double their money. When someone is glued to the candlestick charts, they don’t have the leisure to sponsor a bobsled team. The fading of goodwill narratives has actually hurt DOGE more than many realize. DOGE has no smart contracts, no ecosystem, no cash flow; its only moat is community culture and consensus, and charity was the brightest hallmark of that culture, distinguishing it from other meme coins as a "good guy badge." Losing that badge, DOGE has regressed into a pure speculative token, competing with tens of thousands of other meme coins on the same track, fighting with its biggest disadvantage: freshness and get-rich-quick stories. Even worse is the narrative gap. New meme coin communities unite through pump groups, but $DOGE once united people through the dual satisfaction of "doing good and making money," a cohesion that sticks in bear markets without relying on price. Now, when the price drops, the community falls apart, which precisely shows that the spiritual core has hollowed out. Of course, there’s no need to be too pessimistic. The legend of the bobsled team remains, the dog head logo is still the same, and the community foundation is stronger than any new meme coin. If someday someone picks up the old tradition of "doing good with $DOGE" again, leveraging the current market cap, the scale of goodwill that can be mobilized would be dozens of times that of 2014. The key is whether anyone is willing to do this "non-pump thing." Speculation can be copied, but goodwill narratives cannot — and that’s the one thing DOGE truly cannot afford to lose.$OKB spot price pushed up to around $89.64, with a daily turnover rate maintained above 10%, as chips rapidly rotate between accumulation by whales and profit-taking. The mandatory staking brought by Exchange OS deployment, combined with a hard cap of 21 million tokens, continues to tighten the selling liquidity in the secondary market. If on-chain applications like xStocks remain active, the rigid supply will further drive up the spot premium. Going forward, focus on whether the daily Gas consumption and total staking volume growth of X Layer slows down. #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 🔥🔥🔥 Brothers, let me pour some cold water on you and say something unpleasant: Nonfarm payrolls -23,000, BTC only rose 1%, and you're still bullish? Last night, nonfarm payrolls came out at -23,000, and at least eight people in the group simultaneously posted "takeoff." I said nothing. Because I saw BTC pull from 64500 to 65400, then return to 64900 within 40 minutes. A 1% increase, in the face of "epic dovish" data. Do you know how much gold rose at the same time? 3%. Silver 5%. Even the Nasdaq rose 1.2%. Something called "digital gold" looks like a little brother compared to real gold. I'm not bearish. I just think that when good news comes out but the price can't rally, you shouldn't be thinking "when will it break out," but rather "who is selling on the good news." ETF inflows this week were 750 million, but BTC barely moved all week. Money went in, price didn't move. Tell me, is this accumulation or someone quietly running away with the inflows? I've lost too many times like this. Last March, nonfarm payrolls also shocked, I chased and made 2% but didn't sell, and the next day I gave it all back and even lost 8%. That night I stared at the screen and realized one thing: good news that doesn't push prices up is scarier than bad news. Because with bad news you run, but with good news that doesn't rise, you hold on to death—and holding on to death is really deadly. It's the weekend, liquidity will be worse. 64500 has been resistance for three weeks, and a sudden dip below 63000 over the weekend wouldn't surprise me at all. Don't chase, don't hold on, don't watch the market. Do what you need to do over the weekend, and we'll talk again Monday when CPI expectations come out. "The most expensive tuition is choosing to act when you should wait." Honestly, are you the type who can't help but chase as soon as data comes out? I used to be. Took me a long time to change. $BTC $ETH Russia officially set rules for Crypto in September. **This is not "Russia fully embracing crypto," but rather acknowledging that you can invest, but Crypto cannot replace the ruble.** Starting September 1: Ordinary investors, after passing a test, can buy crypto assets through compliant intermediaries. But each intermediary is limited to 300,000 rubles per year. Qualified investors, after passing a test, have no transaction amount limit. At the same time, there is a very key rule: Cryptocurrency still cannot be used directly to buy goods or pay for services. So Russia’s logic here is actually very clear: ✅ Can hold ✅ Can trade ✅ Can be integrated into the financial system ❌ Cannot challenge the domestic currency’s payment status This is the real point worth watching. Previously, when countries discussed Crypto, there were often only two extremes: Ban it. Or open it up. Now more and more countries are choosing a third path: **Legalize Crypto, but regulate all entry, trading, and payment boundaries.** In the long run, this may not be a bad thing. Because what big institutions really fear when entering is not strict regulation, but not knowing the rules at all. The next phase of global Crypto competition may not be about "who has the loosest regulation." But rather: **Who can integrate Crypto into the traditional financial system without losing control.** Russia’s move is a very typical example. #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 $BTC average buy price has dropped to $52,025. The pink line has been retested and price has gone below it in every bear market, so far. Is this time different?#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound The US non-farm payroll data was released, showing a rather dovish performance, to the extent that the market faces a risk of recession. Short-term market impact: slightly positive for $BTC, $XAU gold, and growth stocks; slightly negative for the US dollar and US Treasury yields. The reason is simple: this data basically undermines the logic that "US employment is still strong," especially with wage growth cooling down. The market doesn't need to worry about Fed rate hikes in the short term. DYOR! #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound Tonight, is the U.S. stock market trading on rate cut expectations or a job recession? For US stocks, it's easy to distinguish—not by index ups and downs, but by which sector capital rotates in. As always, macro factors determine whether your money is expensive, so trade interest rate cuts. If you expect money to be cheap, you'll dare to buy high-risk, high-yield assets, and naturally, AI tech stocks will see their returns rise. If trading jobs are in decline and the market is at a critical point of economic risk, funds will flow into blue-chip and old stocks, while tech and AI stocks will suffer. So, if you only look at the index, you can't really tell what the market is trading right now. But if you look at the performance of specific sectors, it's easy to understand market sentiment. Of course, for me, there's a key indicator you can clearly see: SPHB/SPHQ, which is an indicator on Trdingviwe, and when the indicator is rising, This means funds are trading high-risk, high-yield assets, increasing risk appetite. Conversely, if the index moves downward, it means risk contraction and a defensive phase. Interested friends can directly enter SPHB/SPHQ in Trdingviwe and press Enter to check. Back to the market, although the market is currently trading rate cuts, it is only trading expectations. Whether rate cut expectations can truly return is still not 100% certain. #FedHawkish signals heat up, can weak employment beat inflation? After tonight's nonfarm payroll data was released, the most sensitive bond yields fell first, followed by a weaker dollar and a stronger gold price. But now, following the data release, the 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year bond market is now available SanDisk delivered Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, with adjusted earnings per share of $39.25—135 times higher than the same period last year—and a gross margin as high as 84.6%. Western Digital is also strong, with revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44%, and net profit soaring 12-fold. However, after hours, SanDisk fell 7%, Western Digital dropped 11%, and the next day, the two brothers crashed before market hours, falling 8% and 15%. The Asia-Pacific market unsurprisingly took the hit, with South Korea's composite index falling more than 5% in a single day. The problem lies entirely in the guidance. SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, with the market betting on $10.8 to $11.16 billion. With less than $600 million in difference, the stock price has crashed 9%. Western Digital was even more frustrating, with a median of 4.1 billion even higher than analysts' expectations of 4.06 billion, and still plunged 15% after hours. One institution hit the nail on the head: the core problem in the storage industry isn't fundamentals turning face-down, but expectations have gone too far. Now, every time they must be perfect, every time they exceed expectations, and even guidance needs to be sharply revised. SanDisk's stock price has risen over 460% this year, Western Digital has risen 200%, and AI storage supply has long since been priced in by the market. NVIDIA is also evaluating lowering the HBM configuration of the Rubin Ultra, planning to upgrade from 12hi to 8hi. The tight DRAM supply and demand will continue into 2027, which is a double-edged sword for storage. The price increase logic remains stable, but if AI chip shipments are choked by HBM, high-end demand expectations will have to be repriced. #联储鹰派信号升温, weak No old positions to cushion the bottom, this whale directly used one-third of the principal to smash out an 8.41 million INTC short position A whale listed in the Hyperliquid top three just swallowed hundreds of price-level INTC sell orders within 6 minutes using 955 trades, with an average price of 101.62, building an $8.41 million short position in one go. This address 0x4e23…20c3 has a historical profit of 18.13 million, account equity of 26.11 million, a win rate of 62.3%, day trading short-term style, biased bearish. But it’s uncommon in his usual trading to short naked without stop loss or hedging like today. Currently, there is no same-direction position in the account as a buffer; this order almost used one-third of the equity. If the price does not smoothly decline in the next few hours, given his day trading discipline, a quick position reduction may occur; if he continues to add, it means his bearish logic on INTC is more resolute than expected. Public data observation, no operational suggestions. If you like my sharing, please follow me Tonight's Nonfarm Payroll Data Analysis CME FedWatch shows a 56.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect 83,000 new nonfarm jobs in July, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. But two days ago, ADP data shocked the market — only 44,000 new private sector jobs were added in July, below the expected 75,000, marking the lowest this year. Employment is slowing down. CME FedWatch shows a 56.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September. ADP 44,000, the lowest this year. June nonfarm payrolls were only 57,000, and April-May combined were revised down by 74,000. Hiring momentum is visibly slowing. As of the week ending August 1, initial jobless claims were 199,000, below 200,000 for the third consecutive week. Companies are not laying off employees. In Q2, nonfarm labor productivity grew 1.4%, and unit labor costs rose 1.3% — wages are still increasing, and cost pressures are still being transmitted. On one hand, fewer people are being hired; on the other, no one is being laid off. June CPI year-over-year was 3.5%, down from 4.2%, but still far from the 2% target. Fed Governor Cook said last Wednesday: "Inflation is too high. Inflation risk outweighs employment risk. If necessary, I am ready to raise rates." Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari — one of the three dissenting votes at the July FOMC — also publicly said: "It's time to start raising rates now." The hawkish voices are getting louder. On July 29, the FOMC maintained rates unchanged with a 9-3 vote. All three dissenting votes advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has had three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction in a single decision. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos bluntly stated: This division highlights the growing pressure within the Fed — demanding action on inflation that has been above target for five consecutive years. The Fed neither cuts nor hikes rates, verbally shouting "zero tolerance for inflation," . #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound After several consecutive days of continuous rise, this morning gold directly hit 4300, silver also broke through $62, and COMEX gold futures were even more aggressive, reaching a high of $4267. It rose more than 3% intraday. All because of one data point, the ADP employment report: in July, the US private sector only added 44,000 jobs, while the market expected 65,000 to 75,000. The expectation gap was huge, causing a direct explosion. With such weak employment, expectations for rate hikes cooled down, the dollar fell, US Treasury yields dropped, and gold and silver both soared. But BTC is still hovering around 64,000, rising less than 1%, almost unchanged. I just want to ask, isn't BTC supposed to be digital gold? Gold rose 3%, you didn’t even hit 1%, what kind of digital gold is that? In the first half of last year, BTC and gold still had a clear positive correlation, but this year it has turned negative. Gold has risen 9% this year, BTC has fallen 11%. Analysts at Deutsche Bank directly said BTC is "no longer digital gold." Peter Schiff was even more direct, saying the correlation between BTC and gold never really existed. Though harsh, the data is clear. So what exactly is BTC following? The US stock market? The S&P and Nasdaq are both rising, but BTC isn’t following. ETF funds? On Tuesday, there was a net inflow of $211.5 million, but the price still didn’t move. Geopolitical easing? There has been progress in US-Iran talks, but no stimulus effect. BTC’s current state is that it can’t fall further nor rise, hovering around 64,000, waiting for a real catalyst. This catalyst could be an actual rate cut, regulatory news, or some big institutional move. But at least it’s not the rise of gold. My own view is that the "digital gold" story is becoming less and less convincing by 2026. It’s not that BTC is bad, but its pricing logic is completely different from gold’s now. Gold trades on interest rate expectations and safe haven demand, BTC trades on other things—possibly liquidity, possibly regulation, possibly its own cycles. So next time someone tells you BTC is digital gold, you can throw yesterday’s candlestick chart in their face. When gold rose 3%, BTC was sleeping at 64,000. That’s the answer. $BTC $SNDK $XAU #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？ Guys, tonight's core logic in the US stock market boils down to one sentence: US employment data is worse than expected, and the market actually rises first. 📈 U.S. stock market opens on August 7: 🔥 Nasdaq Composite $QQQ +0.71%, 📈 S&P 500 $XSPY +0.33%, 📉 Dow -0.07%. In other words, the first reaction of capital is very clear: the weaker the jobs, the lower the likelihood of the Fed raising rates in September, and the more comfortable tech stocks will be. Reuters ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📒 First, tonight's nonfarm payroll is truly a "surprise." The market had originally expected about 80,000 new nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. in July. The actual data is out: 💥 nonfarm payrolls directly decreased by 23,000. Even worse, the data from the previous two months was revised down by a total of 103,000. This means the U.S. job market is not simply "cooling down," but has clearly weakened faster than market expectations. Reuters +1 But interestingly: the unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Why? It's not that employment suddenly improved, but about 264,000 people left the labor force, and the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%, hitting a five-and-a-half-year low. Reuters So tonight's data can't be simply interpreted as: "Unemployment is falling, and the U.S. economy is doing well." On the contrary. What is truly noteworthy is that new employment has already started to fall into negative territory. ━━━━━━━━━Nonfarm payrolls fell far short of expectations, let's look at the market's reaction: 1. The US dollar index plunged briefly (Chart 2); 2. The USD/JPY exchange rate plunged briefly (Chart 3); 3. Gold surged briefly (Chart 4). 4. Bitcoin didn't react much, don't watch Bitcoin, it's tired, hahaha Recently, the market has been trading on interest rate hikes, but now with this nonfarm payroll data, the market's interest rate hike trading is cooling down. Now it depends on whether there's concern about starting to trade a recession. If it's right between the two, that's the best for the market. Currently, before the US stock market opens, gold is rising, and the US stock indices are also rising. So far, the outlook seems relatively optimistic.#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Don't be fooled by the surface slowdown in employment shown by the nonfarm payroll data. As long as Walsh does not acknowledge this data, the market's hope to directly return to a rate cut trade based on it is wishful thinking. This data only suppresses rate hike expectations; it cannot guarantee a 100% rate cut. The biggest variable is Walsh. He previously doubted the July inflation data, and now he will likely find excuses to downplay employment risks, such as blaming the World Cup hiring surge or AI impact, to suppress rate cut expectations. Walsh actually has political motives. He wants to overturn the rules that rely on traditional data and establish his own working group data. He will definitely cut rates in the future, but only based on his new indicators. He wants the market to base future rate expectations solely on his new data. Therefore, betting on a rate cut now carries huge risks. The rebound caused by today's data is actually a good opportunity to short on rallies. There are too many uncertainties before policy implementation, so shorting the pullback is the safer move.🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT. The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected. That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs. Here’s how I’m reading it 👇 📉 USD: Bearish 🟡 Gold: Bullish 🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets. But there’s a catch. ⚠️ A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly. So I’m not chasing the first move. I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions. The market will react fast. I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity. Stay patient. Let the market reveal its hand. 👀 $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound After SpaceX's $100 billion lock-up expiration, the stock rose 12% instead of falling. So where did the expected selling pressure go? The market was waiting for employees to dump shares, but SpaceX didn't sell off; instead, it squeezed the shorts. This time, about 912 million shares became eligible for sale, while the circulating shares before the lock-up were only about 639 million, corresponding to a potential selling pressure exceeding $100 billion. But the lock-up expiration means "can sell," not "must sell." SpaceX had already fallen from a high of $225 to around $108, even dropping below the $135 issue price. At this level, employees and early shareholders willing to clear out might be fewer than expected. The financial report isn't bad either: quarterly revenue of $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, and losses narrowed to $541 million. More importantly, shorts had already positioned themselves ahead of the lock-up expiration. Actual selling was less than expected, forcing shorts to cover, which pushed the stock price up. The selling pressure hasn't disappeared; it just hasn't appeared yet. Next, watch the $135 level—if it holds, it means the market has truly absorbed it; if it can't break through, this batch of selling pressure might just be delayed by a few days. $XSPCX $SPCX #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound 🔥 SOL Today's Market: Price "Holding Firm" Around $74, While On-Chain Activity Breaks Records! As of around August 8, 2026, Solana (SOL) is priced approximately at $73.8–$74.0, with a slight 24-hour increase of 0.5%–1.2%, trading volume around $1.5–1.6 billion, and a market cap of about $43 billion, firmly holding the 7th position in cryptocurrencies. Circulating supply is about 582 million tokens. 7bb022 Coinmarketcap Looking back from the peak: From the all-time high of about $294 in January 2025, it has retraced roughly 75%. In the short term, the price oscillates between $70–$75, with the 7-day performance roughly flat or slightly volatile, and the monthly trend still weak. Key Highlights: Price is stagnant, but fundamentals are "running wild" On-chain data explosion: July's transaction volume hit a record high (about 4.24 billion transactions), weekly non-voting transactions surpassed 1 billion, and daily active addresses are near peak levels. DEX trading volume, application revenue (about $82.9 million), and stablecoin supply (about $15.7 billion, an all-time high) all show strong performance. RWA (Real World Assets) value also hit a new high, surpassing $3.7 billion. Technical upgrades continue: Block capacity increased to 100 million CU (+66%), slot time pushed down to 350ms or even lower, network throughput and stability continue to improve. Institutional and ecosystem signals: Solana-related ETF assets have reached a certain scale, institutional allocations remain, and new scenarios like tokenized stocks are being implemented. Meanwhile, Pump.fun continues to sell SOL (having sold a large amount cumulatively, with a total value exceeding $800 million at high prices), bringing some selling pressure. Bull vs. Bear Battlefront Bullish reasons: "Price is sleeping, but the chain is partying!" Real network usage, RWA, stablecoins, and transaction throughput are all exploding. Historically, such severe divergence between price and fundamentals often precedes major rallies. As long as the macro environment holds and BTC remains stable, once SOL breaks key resistance (around $80), the upside potential will be significant. Bearish/Cautious reasons: After a major retracement from the $294 peak, technicals remain bearish (some analyses mention double tops, EMA resistance, and even voices pointing to lower levels). Pump.fun's continuous selling pressure plus generally weak crypto market sentiment may cause repeated tests around the $70 support in the short term. If key support breaks, further downside remains. Summary in one sentence SOL now resembles a supercar with its engine running at full speed but the throttle being held back. On-chain data is flooding the screens, ecosystem and institutions are laying the groundwork, yet the price is stuck tightly around $74. It’s either the "final consolidation before value discovery" or a "volatile period with selling pressure not yet fully absorbed." Short-term focus: Whether the $70–$72 support holds Whether volume can break through $75–$80 Changes in overall market risk appetite $SOL A popular read floating around today goes something like this: lawmakers pushed back a major crypto bill, the market was supposed to tank, and instead the leading digital asset climbed anyway — proof of underlying strength. It's a satisfying story. It's also probably attributing the wrong cause to the right effect. What actually happened in Washington Senate leadership confirmed there will be no floor vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before lawmakers leave for August recess. The hold Tonight's number could determine the market's next move. For weeks, investors have been debating the same question: Has the U.S. economy finally slowed enough to force the Federal Reserve to act? Tonight's nonfarm payroll report might give us the answer. The weak ADP employment report has lowered expectations to just 70,000 to 80,000 new jobs, the lowest forecast this year. But the situation is a bit complicated — initial jobless claims have been below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks. Hiring is slowing, but companies are not rushing to lay off workers. That's why tonight's data is so important. If the report is weaker than expected, it will strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, likely causing the dollar to fall while pushing gold and Bitcoin higher again. If the report is strong, it will reignite inflation concerns, drive up Treasury yields, and put pressure on risk assets. The market has already started positioning ahead of the release. Gold ($XAU) has rebounded above 4300, showing traders are betting on softer employment data. Despite technically appearing overbought, buyers have not backed down. Bitcoin ($BTC) remains around the 65,000 level. ETF inflows remain healthy, but U.S. institutional selling is offset by Asian buying. Gold has chosen its direction — Bitcoin is still waiting for a catalyst. SanDisk ($SNDK) beat expectations and announced a $14 billion stock buyback plan, but its share price fell after the announcement. This shows the market had very high expectations. A weak nonfarm report could trigger a relief rally, while a strong report might continue to pressure high-growth stocks. SpaceX unexpectedly rose as its lock-up period ended, despite significant potential selling pressure. This indicates institutional demand is stronger than many expected. However, resistance near 120 remains a key level, and buyers need enough confidence to break through. Tonight is not just another data release. It is a reality check for the Fed, the market, and every major asset class. Gold. Bitcoin. SanDisk. SpaceX #DailyOrbit 1. August 7 Friday US market intraday trend (intraday oscillating downward) 1. Basic data Previous day (8.6) close: $1258.58 Today's open: $1308.16 (slightly higher pre-market open to recover from yesterday's big drop) Intraday range: $1184.37~$1309.53 Lowest intraday at 12:34 EST quoted at $1230.16, intraday decline 2.26%, maximum intraday drop over 6% Total volume 9.72 million contracts, turnover $11.947 billion, turnover rate 6.65%, selling pressure continues to release. 2. Intraday trend process - Opening surge: briefly touched resistance at 1309 in early session, bulls failed to hold, profit-taking concentrated; - One-sided decline: continued oscillating downward after open, each small rebound accompanied by increased selling volume; - Low-level consolidation: weak oscillation between 1220-1240 after noon, no obvious bottom-fishing funds, daily focus shifted downward. 2. Core logic behind two consecutive days of sharp decline 1. Earnings report positive realized, next quarter revenue guidance below market optimistic expectations (guidance 10.3-10.8 billion, below consensus), typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario; 2. Multiple investment banks simultaneously lowered target prices: Citi, Jefferies sharply cut valuations, weakening institutional confidence; 3. Previous huge gains, annual peak increase over 400%, massive profit-taking accumulated at high levels, funds concentrated in exit; 4. Storage sector weakness linkage: Western Digital plummeted, Micron and Hynix also retreated, no independent sector rally; 5. Fed officials hawkish remarks, US Treasury yields rising, high-valuation tech growth stocks collectively pressured. 3. Key technical price levels (for observation reference) 1. Strong resistance zone: $1300-1324 (recent double top, must hold to reverse short-term downtrend) 2. Bull-bear contest level: $1250 (previous closing platform, first resistance on rebound) 3. Short-term support: $1184 (intraday low on August 7) 4. Strong defensive support: $1163 (lowest point on August 6, key bottom line for this adjustment, breaking will open deeper downside space) 4. Market observation ideas (for trend observation only, not as trading advice) Points for investors holding positions 1. Rebound to $1290-1324 resistance zone is a reduction area, short-term trend weak, not suitable for adding positions; 2. If subsequent effective break below $1163 support with volume, adjustment space will further expand, beware of pullback risk. Ideas for those out of the market waiting 1. Do not rush to bottom-fish on the left side, short-term downtrend not ended; 2. Two safe observation signals: ① Volume breakout above $1324 resistance, consider trend recovery; ② Continuous stabilization near $1163 with sustained large capital inflows on intraday, then lightly speculate on oversold rebound.Non-farm data weakens, so why is $ETH still hovering around $1900? Recently, the macro environment has actually been moving in a direction favorable to crypto. U.S. employment has clearly cooled down, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue tightening has decreased. According to past logic, high Beta assets like ETH should have rebounded more strongly than BTC. But the reality is quite the opposite: ETH is still fluctuating repeatedly near $1900, and ETH/BTC is only around 0.03. This indicates that what ETH truly lacks now is not macro tailwinds, but consensus among capital. BTC has already become the first choice for institutions allocating crypto assets, while ETH, despite having ETFs, staking yields, DeFi, and stablecoin ecosystems, has not yet converted these logics into sufficiently strong incremental buying. However, I actually think this is worth paying attention to. BlackRock has already launched an ETH ETF with staking yields, meaning ETH is gradually transforming from a pure "crypto asset" into an institutional asset that can generate cash income. So what ETH really needs to watch for next is not whether it rises or falls 3% on a given day, but two signals: First, can ETH effectively break through $2000? Second, can ETH/BTC climb back above 0.03 and continue to strengthen? If these two signals appear simultaneously, that would indicate capital is starting to shift from "only buying BTC" to reallocating to ETH. My judgment: ETH is not strong right now, but the odds are starting to get interesting. BTC is responsible for confirming whether the crypto bull market is still ongoing, while ETH decides whether there will be a real altcoin rally in the next phase.#Federal Reserve hawkish signals intensify, can weak employment outweigh inflation? I'm actually not too concerned whether this non-farm payroll report is bullish or bearish. When the data explodes, market volatility is high; when the data weakens, volatility is also high. No matter which direction it goes, there is arbitrage space within the grid range. Whether the bad news is fully priced in or employment warms up, the one-sided market is left for those betting on direction; what I want is price oscillation. ADP's 44,000 is indeed weak, and initial jobless claims have been below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, the data conflicts. Cook said preparations for action are underway, and the market is still pricing in a 56.7% chance of a rate hike in September. The macro theme has shifted from "weak employment driving rate cuts" to "can weak employment suppress inflation." Direction is uncertain, volatility is certain, and the grid strategy fits perfectly. $SNDK SanDisk grid is still running, price oscillating between 1300 and 1400, the lower bound of the range at 1219 hasn't been broken, the grid keeps capturing spreads. No matter what the non-farm number is, as long as volatility increases, the grid can capture multiple rounds. When it falls, the grid buys at the lower bound; when it rises, it sells at the upper bound, both are profits. So the more explosive the non-farm, the better, the larger the amplitude, the better. Rising or falling is fine, as long as the volatility is there. I don't judge the direction of rise or fall at this position; I just wait for the grid to automatically adjust. If it falls too much, there's a forced liquidation price at 935 as a safety net, so no need to panic for now. The greater the volatility, the more arbitrage opportunities, and the grid's returns will only increase.#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound 🤗Extra!🤗Extra!: US nonfarm payroll data is out As soon as this data came out, I just laughed. Nonfarm payrolls in July decreased by 23,000, while the expectation was an increase of 80,000, so jobs directly contracted and turned negative. Looking at inflation still stuck high at 3.8%, this clearly means the economy is not doing well and prices are extremely high. What does this mean for $BTC? The underlying logic is definitely bearish. The Federal Reserve now dares not cut interest rates, fearing inflation will explode, nor dare to raise rates, fearing employment will collapse. In the end, they can only choose to hold high interest rates stubbornly, stop printing money, tighten liquidity, so $BTC, which relies on liquidity to rise, has to take a hit. But don’t panic in the short term: with bad data, the market first bets that the Fed won’t continue to be hawkish, so $BTC might not fall but rebound a bit. But this doesn’t change the essence—there’s no real easing, it’s just a show. Sigh! Be patient. I’m waiting to act only when $BTC is above 40,000. The rest of the time, just watch the show.#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound

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