Orbit Post Sitemap
Recent trends in the U.S. stock market have shown clear divergence: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose against the trend, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 declined. Crypto-related stocks like COIN and HOOD plunged sharply by over 4%, dragging the Asia-Pacific night session down as well.
The core behind this market situation:
▶️ Capital is rotating between highs and lows.
High-valuation tech stocks and highly volatile crypto-related stocks are facing profit-taking, with funds flowing into more defensive traditional sectors, causing structural divergence in the indices.
▶️ Crypto-related stocks face double pressure.
COIN and HOOD are weighed down both by the crypto market's own consolidation and the overall pullback in tech stocks. As highly elastic and prone to sharp rises and falls, these stocks are the first to be squeezed out.
▶️ Asia-Pacific markets show sensitive linkage.
Korean stock futures in the night session fell accordingly, reflecting global capital's short-term cautious attitude toward the tech industry chain and risk appetite assets.
Outlook:
In the short term, tech and crypto sectors still need to find support and it is not advisable to blindly bottom-fish. However, as long as the macro fundamentals do not deteriorate, the pullback after squeezing out excess liquidity may provide mid-to-long-term investors with more cost-effective entry points. Instead of focusing solely on index fluctuations, it is better to pay more attention to capital flows between sectors.
This is not investment advice. DYOR #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
Raised $2 billion but didn’t buy a single BTC: MicroStrategy’s capital engineering major shift
Last week, MicroStrategy raised about $2.007 billion by placing 18.26 million shares of MSTR. Unexpectedly, Saylor did not increase his Bitcoin holdings that week, keeping the position steady at 840,447 BTC.
Where did the money go? The answer lies in the company’s balance sheet restructuring: part of the funds were used to repurchase STRC preferred shares, the USD Reserve was expanded to $5.1 billion, and a new independent USD Cash pool of $1.59 billion was established. The former is specifically to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest, while the latter serves as a flexible ammunition reserve that can be used to buy BTC, repurchase securities, or repay debt.
This move marks a significant evolution in its capital logic. Previously, the approach was "raise dollars and immediately buy BTC," but this time the priority is building a cash firewall and adjusting the capital structure. Although it dilutes common stock in the short term, the $5.1 billion interest reserve almost completely eliminates the systemic risk of forced coin sales due to extreme crashes.
The deeper game lies in the ultimate use of this cash: will it continue to act as a structural buy to support BTC, or will it be used to repurchase shares when premiums fall? This not only determines the spot buying power for BTC but will also reshape MSTR’s valuation premium space.
Do you think Saylor is preparing for a super bottom in BTC, or is he prudently guarding against tightening liquidity? $BTC
In every bull market in history, Bitcoin's market dominance plummets.
Altcoins lead the way.
In 2020, it was doge and shib.
In 2023, it's ordi.
The reason is simple: attracting enough off-exchange capital to enter.
But recently, this week, Bitcoin's market dominance hit a new high for the year, and altcoins only made symbolic moves.
You call this a bull market?
Some say the rules of the bull market have changed, with institutions leading. Are you kidding? Are institutions doing charity? Who do they pump prices for? Retail investors have already exited, so who are they selling to?
So the reason for this rally is obvious. I'll say it plainly: as long as market dominance doesn't drop, as long as there's no next shib, and the dog holders keep pumping, I'll keep shorting. The bottom for this round is at 46000 Fundamental Research Report $STORJ / Storj (DePIN) $3.20
Essentially: Storj ($STORJ) overall score 55/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows paid usage traces, and token value capture is realized.
Fundamental breakdown: Storj (token $STORJ), DePIN sector. Focused on distributed cloud storage. Competitors include FIL, AR. Traditional compute rental giants like AWS, CoreWeave charge by GPU hour, with A100 monthly rent at $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high barrier. On-chain solutions fragment compute power for bidding, suppliers need no centralized approval, idle GPUs become available supply. Customer price $50-$500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, paid usage traces exist. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side, address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing see PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales see whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants grade B, not representing long-term tech VC holdings, tech integration see API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap, Storj $3.00B, FIL undisclosed, AR undisclosed. FDV, Storj $4.20B, FIL undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Annual revenue, Storj $2.00M, FIL undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users, Storj undisclosed, FIL undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation, circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top players. To conclude: fundamentals solid (score 55/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to note: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources, for reference only, not investment advice. Indicator deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit It's been just over a month since around 60K, and $BTC has already touched near 80K again. Does the logic of "finding the bottom in September-October" within the four-year cycle still hold?
This is a question I've been considering and thinking about recently. Honestly, I’m more inclined to believe that this cycle still exists...
BTC has risen more than 20% in the past week, now approaching $80,000. The US spot BTC ETF saw nearly $2 billion inflow last week, one of the strongest weeks since October last year.
Capital and price are both coming back; this round definitely can’t be simply treated as an ordinary rebound.
But actually, we all know that according to the strict four-year cycle theory, the bottom of this bear market should be around October.
However, there is one aspect of the four-year cycle that is particularly easy to misunderstand: completing the bottom formation around September-October does not mean the lowest price must appear in September-October.
For example, the previous 60K area might already be the lowest point of this round, and the subsequent movement could be:
60K → 82K → 72K / 75K → 90K
The price bottom comes out early, and then in autumn, a major pullback forms a Higher Low. The timing of the cycle bottom can still hold.
This is actually the scenario I currently lean towards.
The second scenario is a bit more painful.
BTC continues to surge to 83K–85K, everyone starts shouting new bull market, then it falls back to 70K, 65K, or even near 60K. If it can’t even hold the previous 60K, then this round is just a very strong large-scale rebound within the bear market, and the four-year cycle’s autumn bottom search regains dominance.
The third scenario to keep in mind: the four-year cycle itself is either accelerating or weakening.
Now ETFs, institutional funds, publicly listed companies holding coins, and the derivatives market are completely different from 2018 and 2022. The cycle can be referenced, but if you blindly short just because "October must be the bottom," I think you might easily get yourself wiped out.
So for now, I won’t rush to declare a new bull market, nor will I short against this upward trend just because of the four-year cycle.
What I want to see now is the first truly decent daily pullback.
Short term, watch around 78K first, then 74K–75K below that.
If it pulls back from 82K–85K and holds near 75K, then breaks the previous high again, this Higher Low is much more important to me than "BTC rose another 5% today."
Conversely, if after this surge it falls back below 70K, even eventually breaking through 60K, then finding a real major bottom again in September-October also makes perfect sense.
So my current baseline idea is simple: I’m more inclined to think the earlier low has a chance to be the final price bottom, but there will most likely be a real major pullback testing the bulls this autumn.
Whether that pullback breaks the previous low or not, there might be a Higher Low — a higher low point.
That is the most important card for me to judge whether this round is truly a new bull market.
If by October there is no pullback at all, then it can basically be concluded that the previous range from just over 50K to over 60K basically formed a bottom.
If after these days the market starts a pullback curve, then the next pullback will basically be the bottom of this bear market.
So from the current situation, the trend direction throughout September will be extremely important and will determine whether everyone can truly catch this bottom.
Still a bit hopeful... #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？
Is the U.S. Treasury planning to use the TGA to buy back long-term debt?
Are you about to shout, "The U.S. is about to flood the market, BTC is taking off!"
Hold on a moment.
TGA is the "cash account" the U.S. Treasury holds at the Federal Reserve.
Currently, this account has about $935 billion.
If the Treasury uses part of it to buy back long-term U.S. debt, it could indeed bring some liquidity to the market and increase demand for long-term bonds.
But there is a very important distinction: the Treasury using the TGA is not the same as the Federal Reserve restarting QE.
Don’t jump to the conclusion that $BTC is about to start a new rally just because of this news.
What’s worth watching is whether long-term U.S. Treasury yields can sustainably decline as a result.
If the following happens: TGA releases liquidity → long-term bond demand increases → Treasury yields fall → dollar pressure eases → risk assets like gold and BTC regain investor attention,
then this chain truly holds.
But if it’s just a buyback of a few billion dollars, while the U.S. fiscal deficit continues to widen and debt issuance keeps rising, long-term yields won’t come down.
Then it might just be the Treasury trying to ease market pain rather than solving the problem.
Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield.
If it really keeps moving down, BTC and $XAU gold could genuinely benefit from this liquidity wave.
Otherwise, just seeing the word "TGA" and calling a bull market is likely mistaking expectations for reality.$H 在今天从底部开始反弹。 如果要从它的高位计算的话，目前它现在的价格是很低的。 但是如果单纯从这个项目本身来看，现在这个价格还是有点高。 我分析了一下数据，发现现在做空的力量还没有那么强。 所以，我个人认为，现在这种情况下还不太适合去做空。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 可以发现，它的回持仓量在它上涨阶段中是不断上升的，同时，它的合约多空比是在不断下降的。 经常看我文章的人应该知道，这种情况一般说明现在有比较多的资金在做空。 那有资金在做空，就意味着这个币是有下跌的可能的。 我们再看一下它长一点时间的数据。 可以发现，目前它的合约持仓量还没有涨到之前的高点，它的合约多空比也没有跌到之前的低点。 这就意味着，目前这个位置仍然相对比较低。 倘若现在$ETH 并没有这么高，我大概率是要在这个位置进去做多$H 的。 但是，$ETH 现在价格太高，我有点担心它会高位暴跌。 一旦主流币高位暴跌，很有可能是会把整个市场带崩的。 —————————————————— 我现在在等。 如果说现在市场一直能够维持在高位，那么我下面可能就要做多$H 之类的小山寨币了。 如#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
US diplomats are returning to the Middle East, a signal more direct than any statement.
Washington judges that a full-scale conflict with Iran will not erupt again, and the withdrawn personnel are starting to return. This is not just talk—it's concrete action. The White House believes the most dangerous phase of the situation has passed.
The Strait of Hormuz's daily shipping volume has rebounded to 20-25 vessels, and traders are beginning to unwind war premium positions. This is a suppressive signal for $CL oil prices, but for the entire risk asset class, the easing of geopolitical tensions itself is positive.
$BTC has broken through $80,000, and expectations of continued loose liquidity are fermenting. If oil prices maintain a state of fading geopolitical premium, inflationary pressures will ease, and the Federal Reserve's policy path will become clearer.
My $AXTI grid is still waiting near 67 for Nvidia's earnings report. With geopolitical risks cooling down, if Nvidia performs well tonight, the semiconductor equipment chain will likely recover. The situation is moving in a positive direction; it just depends on whether the earnings report can provide that boost.最近市场上关于狗狗币的声音突然多了起来，不少大V和社群都在喊“跌到底了，可以抄底”。乍一听确实让人心动，但我翻了一下实际的链上和合约数据，发现事情并没有口号里那么单纯。 目前的数据很有意思：大约有1239个散户地址在持续买入狗狗币，而且不少人的成本集中在0.091美元附近，几乎等于买在了近期的高位区，眼下已经被套住。另一边，做空的地址只有317个，数量上远少于多头，但他们的总持仓规模却超过了8170万美元，比散户的多头总持仓还要大。换句话说，少数人押注下跌的筹码，比多数人押注上涨的筹码更重。 更值得留意的是，这些空头目前整体处于浮亏状态，账面亏损超过1000万美元。按理说，持仓被套、浮亏扩大，空头应该感到压力才对。但换个角度想，这么大的仓位摆在市场上，他们真有耐心一直扛下去吗？如果价格继续横盘，浮亏只会越拖越久，资金成本也在不断累积。这种情况下，主力更可能的做法不是认赔离场，而是想办法把价格往下压一波，让散户在低位交出筹码，或者吸引更多抄底资金进来，再接住他们的出货。 所以现在的盘面给我的感觉是，表面上是“散户在抄底、大V在喊单”，但底层其实是“空头重仓被套、等待自救”的博弈格局。散户Why do I feel that $BTC can't break through 86,000? Here's my take:
1. The 80,000 level is quite exhausting; the highest reached was 81,280, just a breath away from last year's high. But the RSI is already at 87, entering the historical warning zone.
Looking back at the major peaks in 2017 and 2021, after RSI breaks 85, it either consolidates sideways for a month or reverses sharply at the peak; no third pattern has been seen.
2. The problem is that the resistance at 81,280 is too close, even if it breaks through, it will need new positive catalysts to continue.
3. There are actually quite a few positives: the Treasury's long-term bond repurchase doubled, ETF net inflow hit a record high of 1.92 billion last week, shorts liquidated 4.6 billion in 24 hours, and the "Clear Act" still holds some uncertainty.
But at this point, some of these positives have already been priced in; a completely new catalyst is needed to sustain the momentum.
So my approach is: don't chase spot now, it's already a bit high, try to take profits. Don't open short positions; once opened, they are easily squeezed and become fuel.📌 The cost of war has finally reached the heart of the United States. According to the Financial Times, American corn belt farmers are facing the worst crisis in 40 years—the war on Iran has driven up diesel and fertilizer costs, pushing growers to the brink of survival. Research shows that without government aid, growers of nine major crops would lose a total of $31 billion this year, and another $32 billion next year. Corn lost $131 per acre, expanding to $167 in 2027; Soybeans lost $80 per acre, growing to $138 next year. 2027 will mark the sixth consecutive year of negative returns. The Middle East conflict has entered its sixth month, with shocks spreading from the battlefield to U.S. agricultural states. With less than a year until the midterm elections, economic pressures are affecting voter sentiment—a microcosm of the war's "backlash" at home. 📊 Impact on the crypto market: (1) Increased stickiness of inflation, negative for liquid assets. The war has driven up energy and fertilizer costs, putting pressure on agricultural prices upward to the food side, making it harder for inflation to fall. The Fed has raised the threshold for rate cuts, creating medium-term pressure on BTC/ETH, which is sensitive to interest rates. (2) U.S. Economic Resilience Tested: Agricultural states are the Republican base, and worsening losses for farmers may force the government to increase subsidies, further worsening the fiscal deficit. The long-term crack in US dollar credit is widening, but short-term trading logic focuses more on "inflation is hard to come down" rather than "worsening deficits," putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin. (3) Rising geopolitical risks, BTC risk aversion narrative awaits activation If internal US economic pressures combine with escalating external conflicts, market panic may eventually shift toward BTC's "digital yellow."BTC just touched the previous high and then stopped; this is not weakness, but the market reshuffling its lineup. Have you noticed that the ones rising the most recently are not the usual faces, but a batch of "coins with stories that no one pays close attention to"? Today, I want to discuss an often overlooked perspective: sector strength and weakness, rather than the overall market rise or fall. First, look at $BEAT. It is still slowly climbing out of a deep drop; the selling pressure from the previous large unlock hasn't been fully absorbed, and a new batch of unlock windows is approaching, so the market instinctively raises its hand to defend. The rebound of such coins is a "breather after a big drop," not a trend reversal. Only when it reclaims the key platform it previously broke below and forms higher lows can the structure be considered truly repaired. Until then, every rebound feels like a probe, not a promise. Next, look at $BICO. The positive news from Upbit has basically been priced in. Now it has shifted from an "event-driven" phase to a "chip rotation" phase. If the price falls back near the starting point of this rally, it indicates short-term hot money is exiting, not a shakeout. This level is more important than chasing highs. $HYPE is another type of example. It has hit a new all-time high again, protocol revenue is rising, and expectations for US regulation are relatively positive. The trend is intact, but if there is a high-volume drop at the top, be cautious of a "buy panic sell-off." The higher it rises, the more you need to watch those who entered only at the top; their stop-loss lines are often the next big bearish candle. $BTC is oscillating at a high level, ETF money is still flowing in, indicating support is still there, but the willingness to chase is clearly weakening. $OKB relies on Xla Circle's investment logic is very simple
Their business is straightforward: using USD obtained from USDC swaps to buy U.S. Treasuries for risk-free wealth management
U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate with the economic cycle, and stock prices move accordingly, but in the long run, as Fu Peng said, due to de-internationalization, the dollar is unlikely to return to a low interest rate era; it's basically a difference between 3% and 4%
I believe the two most important factors for Circle are actually these two
One external factor and one internal factor
The external factor is the crypto space: will Bitcoin reach new highs in the future?
The internal factor is Circle's own USDC: will its share of stablecoins expand or shrink?
I think these two points currently hold true. I have previously added positions in batches and am still holding
Just throwing out some ideas, does anyone else have other thoughts?A Brief Analysis of OKB's Recent Rise Logic OKB has been strong recently: monthly gain over 40%, weekly gain about 10-15%, intraday briefly near $120, currently hovering around $115. The underlying logic can be broken down into two layers. 1. Market β Dominant (Most Direct in the Short Term) This wave mainly follows the overall market strength. BTC surged near $80,000, with US spot ETFs seeing consecutive large net inflows (about $1.9 billion last week, the strongest in the past 10 months), combined with macro factors like U.S. Treasury buybacks, weakening the dollar and a broad rally in risk assets. Exchange platform coins naturally have high-β attributes; when trading volume increases (global 24-hour turnover rises significantly), OKB, as the core asset of the OKX ecosystem, is simultaneously driven up in demand. This is a typical case of "market heat, platform coins moving first." 2. Fundamental Support (Medium- to Long-Term Logic) • Scarcity Established: By 2025, OKX will complete large-scale burns and permanently lock supply at 21 million tokens. Smart contracts will cancel additional issuance and manual burn functions, fully turning them into fixed supply assets, with narratives benchmarked against BTC-style scarcity. • Practical Scenario Expansion: OKB is now the native gas of X Layer (OKX's self-developed L2), and is also tied to Exchange OS (deploying stake/usage required for exchanges). The platform continues to add products—24/7 tokenized US stocks and ETFs, new markets, OKX Card stablecoin payments, etc.—directly increasing demand for holding and usage. • Compliance and institutional endorsement: Obtained Dubai's VARA VASP license,2022年的剧本似乎正在被重新翻阅，但这次翻阅的人，口袋里揣着不一样的东西。当年比特币在六月跌至一万七千七百美元附近，随后迎来一波急促反弹，再缓缓回踩至一万五千八百美元的低点，以太坊也沿着相似的轨迹画出了自己的底部曲线。那段记忆留给市场的，不只是数字，更是一种对“二次探底”的本能警惕。 如今，相似的形态再次浮现。比特币从六万美元下方强劲回升，逼近八万美元关口，以太坊也重新站上两千四百美元。价格走势的轮廓，与四年前确有几分神似，但背景音已经完全不同。这一轮周期里，最醒目的变量不再是散户的狂热或恐慌，而是机构资金通过现货ETF的持续进场。最近一周，比特币现货ETF的净流入接近二十亿美元，以太坊现货ETF也录得近七亿美元的增量。这些数字，是2022年那个冬天里完全无法想象的。 这引出了一个耐人寻味的问题：我们看到的，是真正的周期底部，还只是一场带着希望色彩的反弹？ 🌀 从资金面的角度看，ETF的持续流入确实为市场提供了一层更厚实的承接垫。与过往依赖杠杆和合约不同，这种通过合规渠道进入的买盘，往往带有更长的持有周期和更低的风险偏好波动。它不一定能阻止下跌，但能在下行时减缓速度，在反弹时提供更BTC at $79,800, are you waiting for a pullback?
First, let's look at the surface: 8 days ago it was still at 64,000 cursing the bear market, now 80,000 is right in front of us.
Since the start at 64,000 on August 19, it has surged continuously, with a weekly increase of 23%, the strongest weekly gain since 2023. The daily chart breaks through all moving averages, 20EMA stands above 70,000, 200EMA above 71,000, volume expands — a textbook volume breakout.
First point: this surge is not because crypto itself has improved.
The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, directly suppressing long-end yields and softening the dollar. The global fiat depreciation expectation ignited the fuse for "digital gold." BTC and gold rise together, correlation maxed out.
Last week, Trump called on Congress to pass crypto market structure legislation, further fanning the flames. The Fear & Greed Index jumped from 40 (fear) last week directly to 73-74 (greed), with some sources even above 80.
In 8 days, market sentiment changed from "I'm doomed" to "I'm going to get rich." The same price moved from 64,000 to 80,000; what changed was the market's confidence in the dollar.
Second point: shorts were liquidated for $3 billion, but the real buying comes from here.
In the past week, short liquidations exceeded $3 billion, accelerating the rise. But more importantly — the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw net inflows of about $1.9-2 billion last week, the strongest week since October 2025.
BlackRock IBIT contributed the most, with net inflows exceeding $2 billion since August. This is not a fake breakout.
Third point: technically, it’s time for a decisive moment.
The daily RSI surged to 80-84, extremely overbought; 4-hour and 1-hour charts are also overheated — a short-term pullback is needed for digestion.
But the trend remains bullish: daily chart breaks downtrend line and consolidation box, all moving averages aligned bullishly, Bollinger Bands widening, a typical trending market.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Weekly gain of 23%, volume breakout through all moving averages
ETF net inflow of $2 billion in one week, institutions aggressively accumulating
U.S. Treasury repurchasing bonds, fiat depreciation narrative begins
Short liquidations of $3 billion, spot buying dominates
On the other side:
RSI 80-84 extremely overbought, strong pullback demand
80,000 failed to hold three times, huge psychological pressure
This week’s PCE + Jackson Hole, intense macro variables
Greed index at 80, FOMO sentiment peak signal
Resistance above: 80,000-81,200 → 84,000-88,000 → 90,000-95,000
Support below: 78,000-78,500 → 75,000-76,000 → 72,000-73,000
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
Light long positions near 79,800, stop loss at 76,800 (below previous low), target 81,500-84,000.
Conservative:
Wait for pullback to 78,000-78,500 to build positions in batches, stop loss at 75,500. Or wait for daily close above 81,000 to chase longs, stop loss at 79,500. Targets 85,000 → 90,000-95,000.
Do not short unless it clearly breaks below 75,000 with volume.
Risk control iron rule:
Keep total position at 30-50%, leverage 3-5x, don’t be greedy. This week’s PCE and Jackson Hole are major variables, reduce positions and observe before events. Move stop profits after gains, don’t let profits turn into illusions.
8 days ago at 64,000 you didn’t dare to buy, today at 80,000 you dare even less.
Waiting for a pullback? What if it doesn’t come? ETF bought $2 billion in one week, Treasury is printing money, Trump is calling for buys — this narrative is even stronger than when the ETF was approved in 2024.
But overbought is real too. At 80,000, chasing in means a $2,000 pullback, can you handle it?
Have a base position, keep bullets ready. Buy in batches below 78,000, chase on break above 81,000, 75,000 is the bottom line.
What is your BTC cost?
At 80,000, do you dare to get on board?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Capital flows are surging beneath the surface, and ETFs are paving the way for altcoin market trends.
$BTC has broken through $80,000, $ETH has reached $2,500, and the major market leaders still firmly control the market rhythm. But shifting focus away from price, a more subtle signal is emerging: institutional allocations are quietly spreading from a single BTC direction to peripheral assets.
As of this week, non-mainstream ETFs have seen a combined net inflow of about $89 million, with $SOL accounting for approximately $28.3 million, UNI about $12 million, and HYPE around $3.9 million. The scale is not large, but the directional signal is more important than the amount itself. The logic chain of capital transmission has always been clear: BTC breaks through first, ETH follows to confirm, then funds spill over to leading altcoins. The current stage is exactly at the transition point from the second to the third ring.
The structural rally in the altcoin sector is budding but far from a full bloom. The scale is limited, sustainability remains to be tested, and the conditions for a broad-based rally are not yet sufficient. The major market has already set the stage, and capital is just beginning to look for the performers. Stay observant, be patient, avoid rushing into heavy positions, and wait for further confirmation of the trend before taking action. There is a frequently overlooked phenomenon in the market: after the same round of rally ends, the adjustment patterns of $BTC and $ETH are not the same.
$BTC's chip structure leans more towards long-term holding, with a large amount of early chips in a low liquidity state. After a rapid rise, some large funds tend to continue observing rather than cashing out all at once. Therefore, BTC's phased pullbacks are more due to contract leverage liquidations, short-term profit-taking, and other factors, resulting in a relatively gentle overall adjustment rhythm.
In contrast, ETH has stronger market liquidity. After a significant rise, short-term profit-taking, capital rotation, and some staking-related liquid chips may create more obvious selling pressure. Even if the overall market sentiment does not deteriorate significantly, ETH may experience independent pullbacks, causing its trend strength to diverge from BTC.
This is also where traders are most prone to misjudgment during high-level consolidation phases: BTC's stable performance does not necessarily mean ETH has the same level of support. Facing high-level markets, the two assets require different risk management strategies, especially in leveraged trading, where position control and stop-loss settings cannot be simply duplicated.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Currently, $SOL has climbed back above $100. On August 25, it briefly broke through $103 intraday, with a seven-day increase close to 35%; During the same period, BTC rose over 25% in one week and ETH increased over 30%. So this SOL rally is driven both by its own catalysis and by factors reflecting a recovery in risk appetite across the crypto community. Guys, SOL is really fierce this time! In just one week, SOL surged nearly 35%, directly climbing back above $100, and even surged to around $103 at one point. Many people might ask: Why did SOL suddenly surge so much? I don't think it's just a simple "pump"; there are at least several reasons 👇 1️behind it. ⃣ The entire crypto community is rising, and SOL is a highly elastic asset. BTC broke through $80,000 again, rising over 25% in the past week; ETH also rose more than 30%. When market risk appetite returns, funds tend not to buy only BTC but then look for mainstream counterfeits with higher elasticity. SOL has always been recognized as a high-beta product, so once the market starts, its gains often amplify significantly. 2️⃣ ETF funds keep flowing in, which is the key The biggest difference this time with SOL is that institutional funds have started to participate directly through ETFs. So far, the cumulative net inflow of the US spot Solana ETF has exceeded $1.16 billion, with about $33.49 million recorded in a single day on August 24. This means that what is currently driving SOL's rise is not just retail investor sentiment, but also traditional funds continuing to buy 3CRYPTO may already be front-running US's next liquidity wave. Bitcoin has surged from $62k to above $81k in under a week, a 30% rally. The move began after Treasury doubled long-term bond buybacks to at least $4B per operation. Since reports of Bessent’s potential $950B TGA firepower, BTC has gained another 4.7%. If deployed, that cash would leave Treasury’s Fed account and inject liquidity into the financial system. It could support bond prices, lower yields and push investors toward stocks andThe community is circulating a scenario where a single token mints a huge amount of stablecoins, and the high-leverage narrative is testing the market's risk appetite boundaries.
The third-party protocol Quoer has theoretically modeled the extreme state of minting stablecoins by collateralizing $CORE, but the related parameters are not open in actual operation.
If the underlying asset, valued at only $0.02 per token, carries extremely high multiples of derivative credit, even slight price disturbances can instantly breach the collateral safety buffer.
The leverage narrative is temporarily boosting speculative preference but also directly transmits the potential risk of liquidation to spot holders.
If the ecosystem relies on official staking and reserve assets to accumulate real liquidity, the warming of on-chain risk appetite will steadily improve asset turnover efficiency.
Once the spot price experiences a slight pullback, fragile collateral ratios will trigger a chain reaction of collateral auctions and stablecoin de-pegging.
If protocol governance explicitly seals off extreme collateral parameters in subsequent processes, the market's premium expectations for such liquidity leverage will gradually dissipate.
The most important variable to observe in the coming days is the speed at which on-chain funds divert positions between official native reserves and third-party high-leverage liquidity pools.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
I am Cige. The U.S. has officially launched its "economic isolation operation" against Iran, directly including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping in the secondary sanctions scope. Basent said it will be executed with "zero leakage," and relevant countries must shut down identified activities according to the timetable. The Iranian rial has fallen to a new low of 2,039,000 to 1 USD in the unofficial market.
But oil prices did not rise; instead, they fell. The market has not priced the sanction escalation as an immediate supply shock but is waiting for a more concrete outcome—whether third countries will cooperate and whether the sanctions can truly block Iran's oil and capital flows. If it’s just adding more names to the sanction list, the impact on oil prices is limited. If they start seizing ships, freezing accounts, and sanctioning banks, that will be a real supply shock.
Digital assets are specifically listed in the sanction list. This is the first time the U.S. government has included crypto assets as an independent sanction channel in an economic war against a sovereign country. The USDT in the Central Bank of Iran’s wallet has already been frozen once; this time, the entire channel is shut down. In the short term, this is bearish. The government is directly using USDT’s compliance to enforce sanctions, and the market will reassess stablecoin risks. In the medium term, sanctioned countries and entities have only two choices: either use more decentralized settlement methods or completely exit the dollar system. Whichever path they choose, BTC’s non-sovereign nature is being validated.
$BTC $ETH $BZ #TreasuryBuybackTest
Treasury buybacks can make the bond market smoother. They can't make America's debt problem disappear. Doubling the long-bond buyback cap may reduce volatility, but deficits, heavy issuance and inflation still determine what investors demand to lend for 30 years. That's the distinction I'm watching. Better liquidity can calm markets without creating cheaper money. If long yields stay elevated anyway, stocks, gold and BTC may still have to adjust.The most worth watching about $ETH these days is not how much it has risen, but that the same pressure zone has been repeatedly tested for a full 4 hours without ever closing above it; meanwhile, Farside reports that US ETH products have seen net inflows of about $808 million over six consecutive trading days, but the inflow rate has slowed in the last three days.
This is the current contradiction: the price is trying to accept upward movement, spot capital direction is still positive, but the new momentum has not continued to accelerate. Derivatives are also not showing typical one-sided runaway behavior—Bitget samples show significantly more long accounts, but the position sizes are nearly balanced. My judgment still leans bullish, but the "high-level turnover completion" is really just a hypothesis waiting to be verified now.
The key to the main path is only to recognize a full 4-hour close above 2,550, and then on the first pullback, not to fall back into the pressure zone; if this step is missed, I will wait first and still treat the rally as a pressure test within the range. If a full 4-hour close breaks below 2,355, the structure of raising the lows this round will no longer hold, and I will accept deeper digestion first without making up stories for the decline.
In the next update, I will only look at one question: when spot inflows continue to slow, can ETH turn the pressure into support; at which step would you take it as confirmation? 8-year high at 888, a 60% surge in one week, market cap breaking 14 billion, perpetual positions at 1.7 billion USD — but just now, ZEC price is violently fluctuating around 850, funding rates soaring, both longs and shorts liquidated. Is this wave the start of the “privacy coin revolution,” or just a pump by whales to hit an 8-year high waiting for you to take the bag?
On one side:
Grayscale Zcash ETF progressing steadily, the first privacy coin spot ETF
Weekly inverse head and shoulders breakout, confirming a major reversal
Mining institutionalization, Winklevoss group heavily invested
Ironwood upgrade + NU7 voting, active ecosystem
Privacy narrative becoming more valuable in the AI surveillance era
On the other side:
60% rise in one week, 70% in one month, seriously overbought
RSI 80-88, historically every time it hits this range there’s a correction
Institutional cost 300-400, 850 is the distribution zone
ETF expectations partially priced in, prone to "sell the news"
Regulatory risk: privacy coins are always targets
Any asset doubling in a short time needs to digest gains. Either sideways consolidation waiting for moving averages to catch up, or a direct pullback of 30-50%.
ZEC now is like SOL in 2021 —
From 5 to 50, everyone said "too expensive," then it went to 200. But when it dropped from 50 to 20, the harshest critics were the same people.
On the day 888 breaks out, you’ll realize:
It’s not that ZEC is bad, it’s that you always buy at the top and sell at the bottom. #Strategy increase issuance to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under focus The man who once frantically bought has completely changed. Previously, Saylor's approach was "financing → buying coins → refinancing → buying coins again," a high-leverage perpetual motion cycle. Now it has become "financing → hoarding cash → paying interest → waiting for opportunities." Why the change? Neither interest nor stock price allows him to continue recklessly. With 840,000 BTC at an average price of 75,385,#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？
Facing market turbulence caused by high long-term U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. Treasury plans to use the TGA (Treasury General Account) cash balance to expand long-term Treasury buybacks, attempting to ease liquidity pressure through administrative measures.
But can this combination really untie the deadlock of U.S. Treasuries?
Short-term liquidity buffer release: Using TGA funds to repurchase less liquid old bonds in the open market can indeed inject some liquidity into the banking system in the short term, lowering 30-year Treasury yields.
A financial shuffle that treats symptoms, not the root cause: TGA funds are essentially the government's existing fiscal deposits; using these deposits for buybacks is just asset-liability management moving money from one pocket to another and cannot offset the trillion-dollar fiscal deficits and the flood of bond issuance.
A breathing window on the asset side: The decline in long-term rates temporarily alleviates the valuation pressure on stocks and crypto markets, but
if the oversupply pattern does not change, the long-term rate baseline is still more likely to rise than fall.
How long do you think the Treasury can support U.S. Treasuries relying on the TGA? Have long-term rates really peaked?
$TLT $BTC $XAU #U.S.Treasuries #TGA #Liquidity #Treasury #Macroeconomics The inertia that BTC is moving and altcoins remain stagnant has already become market consensus, but the key variable now is when that consensus will be broken. On the surface, funds are flowing into BTC and ETH, while altcoins are being left out. However, what the price actually reflects is the market's judgment that "funds cannot move over," rather than "funds cannot move over." - BTC is approaching $80K, while ETH is holding at the $2.5K level. - Major altcoins such as LAB, BEAT, H, and KAITO have seen almost no movement. - Weekly inflows into US spot BTC and ETH ETFs amount to about $2.6 billion. The structure illustrated by this data is simple. Institutional funds are first building positions in index assets BTC and ETH, and the shift to altcoins has not yet begun. The market is currently trading risk premium reduction before expanding risk appetite. The question is when and under what conditions this trend will shift to altcoins. Upward scenarios and invalidation#Strategy increase issuance to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under focus
The man who once frantically bought has completely changed.
Previously, Saylor's approach was "financing → buying coins → refinancing → buying coins again," a high-leverage perpetual motion cycle. Now it has become "financing → hoarding cash → paying interest → waiting for opportunities."
Why the change? Neither interest nor stock price allows him to continue recklessly.
With 840,000 BTC at an average price of 75,385, the current price results in a book loss exceeding 10 billion. He also has to pay 1.76 billion in dividends and interest annually. Continuing to buy mindlessly like before is not faith, it's courting death.
So he first dismantled the "interest expense" bomb to let himself live longer.
The impact on the crypto circle is twofold.
First, the most steadfast bulls in the market have stopped, putting short-term sentiment under pressure. In recent years, people were used to Saylor calling trades weekly and continuously buying, but now that expectation is gone. However, this is not a signal that the bull market is over; he has never sold at the bottom, just changed his way of living.
Second, in the mid to long term, this is actually a good thing. The previous high-leverage cycle, once broken, would cause a chain reaction of explosions. Now, with 5.1 billion in cash plus 840,000 BTC, the base is actually more stable. He himself said he won't be forced to sell coins at unfavorable prices. Being able to survive without selling coins means the coins in hand will only become more valuable.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Years of ups and downs in the crypto world, from the 312 crash, the 519 clear-out to the FTX collapse, I've seen too many ways people exit the market. What's harder in trading: taking profits in time or cutting losses in time? My answer is clear: in the crypto world, taking profits in time is far more difficult than cutting losses in time. This is not to say cutting losses is easy, but taking profits requires fighting against things that are more hidden, more deadly, and a greater test of a trader's true caliber than cutting losses. Let's start with cutting losses. Crypto traders are no strangers to taking losses. High leverage and high volatility exponentially amplify the cost of mistakes, which ironically becomes a brutal forcing mechanism: if you don't cut losses, liquidation is the end. Over ten years, I've internalized cutting losses into muscle memory: set the stop-loss level as soon as you open a position, exit immediately when triggered, no questions asked. Cutting losses is against human nature, but at least it has a clear standard line, an inward, controllable pain. Making a wrong judgment is not scary; after admitting the mistake, cutting losses is actually a relief, the bottom line of risk control. Taking profits is a war on another dimension. The most toxic superstition in crypto is the get-rich-quick narrative. You take profits during a big rise—Bitcoin goes from 50,000 to 60,000, you tell yourself securing profits is right, but then it soars all the way to 100,000. Social media is full of cheers for those who hold on forever, and your rational profit-taking instantly gets painted as a lack of understanding. This fear of missing out is more tormenting than losses; losses mean losing what you had, but missing out is the phantom pain of what you should have had but missed. In behavioral finance, this is called post🐂 The triple drivers behind this rally (why OKB leads the platform coin gains) $OKB 1. Supply side: Largest burn ever + permanent total lock. In August 2025, OKX will permanently burn about 65.26 million OKB in one go, reducing total supply from 300 million to 21 million, and permanently removing minting and manual burn permissions, benchmarking Bitcoin's fixed total supply model. What does this mean? - Circulating supply plunged about 75%, instantly igniting absolute scarcity expectations - Any marginal demand growth is amplified by a tiny 21 million tokens into price elasticity - Narrative differs from BNB's model of relying on quarterly repo burns 2. Demand side: X Layer ecosystem data realization OKB is no longer a "fee discount coupon" but the sole gas token of the X Layer 2 network: - X Layer's DeFi TVL surpassed $117 million, nearly a tenfold increase in half a year - Stablecoin issuance exceeded $2 billion, entering the global public chain top ten - Over 4.2 million active addresses, more than 400 million on-chain transactions - Leading protocols like Aave and Uniswap deployed - xStocks tokenized shares on X Layer The trading volume share on Solana and Ethereum has surpassed that of Circle's native USDC integrated on August 7 Many people overlook a reality: after the same round of rally ends, the shakeout logic of BTC and ETH is completely different.
$BTC has a large amount of chips in a long-term dormant state. After a big surge, major holders tend to hold and observe rather than sell off in large quantities. The pullback mainly comes from liquidation shocks caused by contract leverage, so the downward rhythm is relatively mild. ETH's chip liquidity is much higher. After a significant rally, swing profit-taking and unlocked staked floating chips will concentrate on fleeing. Even if the overall market does not show obvious weakness, $ETH will still experience an independent retracement.
This is the tormenting part of the high-level phase: the overall market looks relatively stable, but the ETH retracement on hand exceeds expectations. Do not simply use BTC's resistance to decline to predict ETH's support strength. In a high-level oscillation market, ETH's support will be more fragile. When trading with leverage, position size and stop-loss standards must be treated differently for the two coins; one set of parameters cannot be universally applied.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ Good evening everyone!
$BTC BTC Bitcoin
The supply side has a hard cap of 21 million coins, with a halving mechanism that solidifies the deflationary rhythm. The new token supply continues to shrink, making it the only asset among the three with a fixed total supply. It is a commodity-type asset, similar to bulk commodities, whose value comes from scarcity and consensus, without interference from issuance variables.
Supply constraints are its biggest moat. Regardless of bull or bear markets, new selling pressure is predictable. Institutional allocations value this point, treating it as a risk hedge tool in portfolios. The downside is no intrinsic yield; the price is entirely determined by external buying. In the late bull market, opportunity cost can arise. When the market is euphoric, funds flow to tokens with ecosystem stories; but once panic hits, limited supply allows it to absorb safe-haven funds, with drawdowns significantly smaller than ETH and SOL.
$ETH ETH Ethereum
No hard total supply cap, uses dynamic issuance plus fee burning mechanism. When the network is active, it is deflationary; when sluggish, inflationary. Supply elasticity is large. It is a hybrid equity-commodity asset. Staking generates new tokens, while L2 solutions divert fees, directly affecting burn scale.
The dual nature of supply is very prominent: on-chain prosperity means burning exceeds issuance, token deflation, favorable for valuation; on-chain activity decline means issuance dominates, equivalent to implicit dilution. It is half like BTC pursuing scarcity, half like a tech equity relying on ecosystem value creation. This mixed attribute causes market swings: institutions are willing to allocate but are disturbed by inflation and SEC securities classification issues. Supply is not fixed; long-term supply changes highly depend on ecosystem development, with uncertainty higher than BTC.
$SOL SOL (Solana)
Inflation release is most obvious, token unlocking and staking rewards continuously increase circulating supply, no deflationary burn mechanism, long-term net issuance state. It is a high-growth risk asset, closer to early-stage tech growth stocks.
During rapid network development, the market ignores inflation, focusing on transaction performance and ecosystem explosion; but when the market weakens, continuous new token selling pressure amplifies declines. Staking ratio is much lower than ETH, allowing large amounts of tokens to quickly flow into secondary markets. Its core contradiction: the ecosystem needs continuous issuance to incentivize developers and validators, but issuance exerts long-term downward pressure on the token price. Only when on-chain revenue explodes enough to cover inflation dilution can supply pressure be absorbed; otherwise, issuance becomes a dark line suppressing valuation long-term.
The essential supply differences among the three: BTC supply is fixed; ETH supply fluctuates dynamically with the ecosystem; SOL relies on continuous issuance to drive the ecosystem. Under the current market, supply risks are not fully priced in. Once the bull market cools, tokens with greater supply elasticity will face heavier correction pressure. $SNDK The story of SanDisk is only half told
The narrative in the storage industry is shifting gears, but most people haven't caught on yet.
A friend who has worked in the storage industry for ten years shared a story: In 2019, he bought SanDisk for the first time when the stock price was just over 20, with a PE ratio of only 5. Analysts said NAND is cyclical, so after a rise, it would fall back. He believed it and sold after making 30%. Now SanDisk is at 1,493, up 529% YTD, and has increased 70 times in 7 years.
He said: The mistake back then was treating SanDisk as a cyclical stock. But the logic of storage has changed. Previously, NAND demand came from phones and PCs; if phones didn't sell, NAND would be oversupplied. Now demand comes from AI inference, and every inference generates data that must be stored. This is not cyclical fluctuation but structural growth.
KOSPI has dropped 30% from its June high, with Samsung and SK Hynix accounting for over 53% of KOSPI's market cap. Korean leveraged funds are deleveraging, but SanDisk's NBM has locked 67% of capacity. Viewing AI storage with a cyclical stock mindset is the biggest cognitive gap in this market.
Conclusion: Bullish in the medium term. Pullbacks are opportunities, not risks. Buy in batches below $1,400, and HBF mass production is the next catalyst.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The $80,000 mark has finally been broken. Is this a quick bull comeback or a bull trap?
Pharaoh says directly, $80,000 is a psychological barrier, not the final stop. This surge was driven by three forces pulling together—the Fed's buyback suppressing yields, shorts being liquidated to tears, and ETF institutions aggressively buying. These three factors combined pulled the price up over 25% in a week, with shorts liquidated for $7.2 billion in that same period.
Can $80,000 hold now? Pharaoh thinks the key depends on three points.
First, the short squeeze momentum is fading. Most shorts that could be liquidated have been, so whether the rally continues depends on whether spot buyers can take over.
Second, profit-taking is already happening. Short-term holders transferred 43,300 BTC to exchanges to realize profits—the largest profit-taking this year. The $78,000-$80,000 range is a solid technical support zone; if it holds, the bullish structure remains intact.
Third, $83,000 is the first major hurdle. Bitget Research Institute bluntly states that only a valid break above $83,000 can open the way to $90,000.
How does Pharaoh see the market going forward?
In the short term, it will likely oscillate between $75,000 and $83,000. The $80,000-$90,000 range has historically low trading volume and thin liquidity, so a wrong directional move could cause painful spikes.
Strategically, wait for a pullback near $78,000 to stabilize before acting. This is a hundred times safer than chasing above $80,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 "BIT Entities and Hyperliquid Bulls Liquidate $419 Million: New Whale Takes $1.2 Billion Profit in 3 Days, Who's Buying at the $80K Peak?"
Watching Bitcoin touch 81,000 and Ethereum reach 2,500, the entire market is shouting about the third wave of the bull market, yet the top on-chain bullish whales simultaneously liquidated all their long positions.
Eleven addresses linked to BIT entities closed $419 million worth of long positions in one go, locking in a pure profit of $55.095 million.
Hyperliquid's largest bull also simultaneously closed 120,000 ETH and 2,000 BTC positions, pocketing $61.72 million alone.
The new whale cashed out $1.2 billion in the past 3 days, setting the highest single-wave profit record ever recorded in the crypto space.
As $1.92 billion in ETFs flooded in to act as counterparties, the main players have converted all their longs into stablecoins, leaving only the chasing bulls holding high positions with high fees. $BTC 【Before BTC's second wave of rise, the market is waiting for a decent pullback】
BTC last week broke through the descending trendline and the bottom wedge in one go, closing the weekly candle with a strong bullish candlestick. This indicates that the bearish structure has been broken, and it is more likely to enter a fluctuating upward trend rather than a rebound solely supported by a short squeeze.
There is also support from the capital side:
1. The U.S. Treasury has expanded long-term bond repurchases, and the market is re-trading the depreciation of the dollar and liquidity easing.
2. $BTC spot ETF net inflow was about $1.92B in a single week.
3. Demand for spot and perpetual contracts has simultaneously turned positive, and Coinbase premium has also started to rise.
Of course, as retail investors re-enter, whales have also begun to slightly offload, so the risk/reward of chasing highs in the short term is not good. BTC still has the possibility of further correction; the downside target is first $74,000, then the 0.5 to 0.618 golden pocket.
If the historical rhythm repeats, $BTC may first test the previous high, then pull back to the gap, close with a long lower shadow, and only then start the real second wave of rise.
History will not repeat exactly, but market structures often rhyme. Will you wait for the pullback to go long, or do you think BTC will no longer give opportunities? $xSNDK storage sector took another hit last night: SanDisk dropped over 6%, Seagate dropped over 6%, Western Digital dropped over 5%, Micron dropped over 5%, SK Hynix dropped nearly 5%. Today, South Korea's KOSPI fell over 3%, with Hynix dropping more than 6% intraday.
Two consecutive days of sharp declines, and Samsung is to blame: Samsung announced a shareholder return plan of up to 110 trillion KRW, but JPMorgan said it "did not exceed expectations," with no stock buybacks or dividend scale disappointing, directly dragging down sentiment across the entire storage sector.
But has the logic changed? No. HBM supply-demand imbalance remains, Hynix's 50% market share remains, AI computing power demand remains. What changed is sentiment: stubborn inflation, escalating US-Canada trade frictions, hedge funds accelerating sell-offs. Storage is one of the sectors with the largest gains in this rally, with the heaviest profit-taking, so the sell-off is naturally the harshest.
Hynix's own positive news is also there: on August 19, it announced the largest buyback plan in South Korean history, 40 trillion KRW (about $28.9 billion), canceling 3.3% of shares.
Key timing: Nvidia's earnings report after market close on Wednesday. NVDA's earnings guidance will directly determine HBM demand expectations, and the storage sector will follow.
Trading strategy: Watch for SanDisk to stabilize around 1,000-1,050 and KOSPI including Hynix to stabilize before considering. The cycle is not over, but bottom-fishing is not urgent these days. It's safer to decide direction after earnings. [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The TRUMP team has started unloading again. Will it ever stop after this round of dumping?
Pharaoh says directly, this is neither the first time nor the last. The team has already figured out the playbook—rumor-driven pump, selling at the peak, son’s denial, the three-step routine executed seamlessly. Pharaoh is familiar with this script. Last week, rumors that "Trump is launching a new coin on the Robinhood chain" were everywhere, causing TRUMP to surge 80% straight to $3.6, only for his son Eric to immediately call it "fake."
On-chain data doesn’t lie. The team’s address first transferred 3.837 million tokens to OKX, worth $9.33 million; then sold 1.1 million tokens using a "one-way liquidity addition" method at an average price of $2.68, exchanging for 2.94 million USDC.
Will the selling pressure continue? Pharaoh’s judgment is yes. 80% of the supply is still held by the Trump family, totaling 800 million tokens. As long as the price rises and liquidity returns, the motivation to unload remains constant. Currently, TRUMP is around $2.5, down 97% from the all-time high of $73, but $2.5 is still a huge profit for the team.
Remember, this is not a reduction in holdings; it’s a "planned, paced, and strategic continuous monetization." Good trades are meant to be waited for. For such a transparent unloading scenario, watch more and act less. $BTC $ETH $OKB #TRUMP关联地址减持，抛压会否延续？ #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨
On the morning of August 25, spot gold surged close to $4700, with a cumulative increase of nearly 14% since August. A Kitco News survey shows that 73% of Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, while the rest anticipate consolidation at high levels—no one is bearish.
Institutions are collectively taking sides. Goldman Sachs believes the original year-end target of $4900 is now conservative, stating that gold prices have entered a "mechanical acceleration zone" driven by option short covering; UBS maintains a year-end target of $4600 and newly forecasts $5400 by September 2027; Citi raised its 3-month target to $4800; JPMorgan maintains a year-end target of $6000. Thirteen gold ETFs have seen a combined net inflow of nearly 40 billion yuan in the past month, with Huaan Gold ETF's monthly scale increasing by over 15 billion yuan.
The driving logic is clear: U.S. dollar credit is loosening. U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the market is repricing "risk-free assets." The simultaneous surge in gold and long-term bond yields is the most direct pricing signal of U.S. dollar credit.
Short-term risks of chasing highs are accumulating, with three institutions simultaneously warning of "overheated positions." However, central bank gold purchasing trends remain intact; in Q2, global central banks net purchased 288.9 tons of gold, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 411%. The $4600 level is a signal, not the end point. The real driving logic is not how high gold prices can go, but what assets can still be considered "safe" under $40 trillion of debt.$BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元, can it hold a new level 🔥? Over 558 million orders washed over the weekend, BTC broke 81,000 on the night of August 24, ETH reached 2533! "Short flat bull" dies off, "ETF + depreciation trading bull" takes over: 80k hits bottom, 85k is the next cut. From 21:12 on August 24, 2026 to the early morning of August 25, BTC peaked at $81,270 (first time breaking 81,000 since May), currently at $80,970 (24h +4.59%); ETH peaked at $2,533, now at 2,520–2,533 (24h +3%~+4%). Weekly chart: BTC +22.6%, ETH +28%, the best weekly since 2023. 🌍 Latest variables from the evening of 8/24 to the early morning of 8/25: US Treasury 'hidden QE' fulfillment: Becent will repurchase 2 billion → 4 billion per long-term bond deal, 30Y yield down from 5.337% to 5.23%–5.28%, 10Y 4.70%, US dollar index weak at 98.8→ 'de-dollarization + currency depreciation trading' restarting, BTC and gold (4,700) soaring. ETF weekly inflows of 2.5–2.6 billion: BTC ETFs had a net inflow of 1.92 billion from 8/17 to 8/21 (606 million in a single day on 8/20), ETH ETFs had weekly gains of 697 million, totaling about 2.6 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October 2025; After the US market opened on 8/24#StrategyBuildsCash Strategy sold approximately 18.26 million MSTR shares between August 17 and 23, generating about $2.007 billion in net proceeds. The company did not buy or sell Bitcoin during the period and continues to hold 840,447 BTC. Part of the proceeds repurchased STRC preferred shares, while $300 million increased its USD Reserve to $5.1 billion. Strategy placed another roughly $1.59 billion into a separate “USD Cash” pool.
Building liquidity lowers the risk that Strategy must sell Bitcoin to meet preferred dividends, interest or debt obligations. The flexible cash pool may also be used for future BTC purchases, security repurchases or debt repayment. However, selling common shares dilutes existing holders, especially if proceeds are not used in a way that increases Bitcoin exposure per share. The next allocation decision will therefore be important. Buying BTC could restore Strategy’s role as a structural market buyer, while repurchasing shares may be more attractive if MSTR trades below the value of its assets.Taking a quick look at Strategy's recent moves, I just want to say: Saylor, that old fox, has finally learned to "play it safe and grow." 😂
Before, it was "buy, buy, buy blindly," now it's "hoard cash to survive." A paper loss of 8.2 billion dollars in Q2—who wouldn't be nervous? With over 10 billion in paper losses on the books and having to pay 1.76 billion in interest annually, if he kept blindly adding positions like before, that would be true "bravery." Now he's smart—last week he cashed out 334 million dollars and immediately boosted the dollar reserves to 4.8 billion. This isn't cowardice; it's preserving resources to keep going. 🌲
Then there's the holding cost—840,447 $BTC at an average price of 75,385 dollars, and the coin price is still underwater. 📉 If this were a retail investor, they'd have cut losses hundreds of times by now. But institutions play the "long game." Pausing purchases now is clearly to "insure" the balance sheet, avoiding forced selling at the bottom to pay debts.
As for what the 4.8 billion in cash is for? It's obviously a "wait" tactic. Waiting for a better price, waiting for a deeper dip. Not buying now doesn't mean not buying later—just holding back for a big move. As for $MSTR shareholders, bear the dilution for now; at least the company is still alive, and the pie is still there. 🍪
Don't expect him to pump the market in the short term; the biggest positive is that he can hold steady and not sell. Just wait, when it really bottoms out, this 4.8 billion will be the fiercest "bottom-fishing rocket." 🚀
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 The macroeconomic front did not provide new reasons for market easing today. The U.S. continues to ramp up sanctions on Iran, oil prices remain temporarily stable, but geopolitical risks have not disappeared; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still above 4.7%, and the pressure of high interest rates on risk assets persists. What really needs to be watched this week are the PCE, GDP revisions, and the Federal Reserve Chairman's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting. The market is currently betting on capital inflows rather than a macroeconomic recovery.
However, spot funds are indeed continuously flowing in. On the last U.S. stock trading day, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $337.6 million, ETH net inflow of $115.6 million, and SOL products recorded a net inflow of $33.5 million. The continuous capital support is the most solid foundation for this rebound, but the market has been rising consecutively. While there is positive news, it is increasingly difficult to explain continued buying at high levels simply as "just released news."
Regarding long and short positions, BTC large accounts hold 46.7% long and 53.3% short, with shorts still slightly dominant; funding rates remain positive, indicating that the willingness of longs to pay has not disappeared. BTC open interest rose intraday to about 108,500 coins before falling back to around 107,000 coins. When prices surged, new leverage was added, and some deleveraging occurred during the pullback. This structure is not extremely crowded, but every surge above 80,000 requires caution against a rapid pullback after longs chase prices and shorts cover simultaneously.Updated: 2026-08-25 COP (Electricity Cost): $58,837 / BTC AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost): $76,488 / BTC BTC Price: $80,130 (Aug 25, 15:24 VNT) Price / COP: 1.36x Price / AISC: 1.05x => Hold, observe & wait zone 200W SMA: +24.1% (vs 200W SMA) Weekly RSI: 53.0 Market Insights: Bitcoin has officially reclaimed its position above the All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of mining. Following 10 weeks of consolidation around the 200-week SMA (from W24 through W33), BTC surged sharply, currently sitting +24.1%I’m bullish on Unitree Technology and the humanoid robotics theme for the long run. But at these valuations, I’d rather watch than chase. Unitree IPO’d at ¥150.8, then briefly surged above ¥1,100 — a move of more than 600%. Even after the sharp pullback, the valuation still reflects extremely aggressive expectations for future humanoid-robot growth. The business is growing fast: 2025 revenue reached ¥1.699B, with net profit of ¥278M. That’s impressive. But the key question isn’t whether Unitree Even people close to Bassett are opposing! $XAU above 4680, the bulls are playing with fire
The biggest news tonight: Billionaire Druckenmiller, who once advised Bassett, publicly slammed the Treasury's bond buyback as a "wrong decision"—"Governments trying to fight fundamentals by manipulating prices always fail." Even his own mentor doesn't support him, this drama is quite interesting.
On the other hand, Bassett changed his tune on the "economic D-day": "We haven't bought a single bond yet, the next operation will wait until September 9." Previously hinted buybacks might exceed 4 billion, now clearly pulling back.
1-hour chart: Bulls aren't broken, but divergence has sounded the alarm.
After a morning surge near 4700, it pulled back, with the European session oscillating between 4640-4670. Moving averages are bullishly aligned, MA60 supports around 4609. But MACD bearish divergence has appeared—the price is still pushing up, but momentum can't keep up.
Smart money data: Bulls' average entry price is 4501, with unrealized profits of 4.18 million USD. 4680-4700 is the upper edge of a dense trading zone; these unrealized profits could turn into selling pressure at any time.
Dalio says the US debt crisis could erupt as soon as a year from now, recommending a 10%-15% gold allocation. Citi raised the 3-month target price to 4800 but added: "This rally is mainly driven by speculative funds; for the uptrend to continue, physical demand must catch up."
Mid-to-long-term bulls are fine, but chasing above 4680 in the short term? Think carefully.
Trading advice:
Long: Aggressive traders at current price, conservative traders on pullbacks near 4620-4600
Short: Short on rallies near 4680-4700 resistance
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
First, why did it drop? Actually, it's not that complicated. The US talked tough this time, but in reality, it didn't affect Iran's exports, and the Strait of Hormuz is fine. The market was too tense before, so the geopolitical premium suddenly dissipated. Plus, the funds that were lying in wait for sanctions took the opportunity to flee, so oil prices naturally fell 😅
From a technical perspective, the daily trend is still upward, but the short-term rally was too strong, and now it's clearly taking a breather. 84.5 is a key level, the lower boundary of this rising box. As long as it doesn't break, the bulls can still gather strength for another push. The 86 level has been tested repeatedly today; after sanctions land, selling pressure piles up here. If it can't hold, it will continue to oscillate. If 84.5 is broken, then 83.5-82.5 is the real buying zone. To restart the rally above, volume must break through 88.5; otherwise, the resistance zone between 87.2-88.5 is tough to overcome 🤣
The 4-hour MACD has formed a death cross, and RSI has dropped. Short term, expect it to fluctuate between 84.5-87.2, don't expect a one-sided surge or plunge.
Now, about the impact on the crypto space:
In the short term, the drop in oil prices cools inflation expectations, dollar liquidity is less tight, plus BTC ETFs keep buying and the technicals have stabilized above 80,000. Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative is actually stronger, and the market is relatively strong. In the medium term, as long as crude oil doesn't break 82.5, the Middle East situation isn't fully settled, inflation persists, and crypto won't go directly bearish. If oil prices continue to weaken, expectations for dollar easing rise, which could actually benefit crypto; conversely, if oil jumps back above 88, inflation worries return, and risk assets will get hit.
In practice, the market mainly follows BTC's technicals; crude oil is just an emotional side player. As long as BTC holds 79,500, the bullish pattern remains intact. Don't chase at highs, buy on dips, keep this rhythm steady 😎
That's all for now
$BZ $BTC BTC breaks through 80,000, ETH catches up, HYPE hits a new high—how far can this rally go?
Today's market has a very clear characteristic:
BTC has reclaimed $80,000, ETH is around $2,500, and HYPE has already led the way to a historic high.
This means the market is spreading from a pure BTC rebound gradually toward ETH and high Beta assets.
But here, I actually do not recommend chasing the rally.
What I’m more focused on is: Is this rise a trend reversal or just a highly volatile liquidity-driven move?
⸻
🟠 BTC: Reclaims $80K, trend starts to strengthen
BTC today broke above $80,000 again, reaching as high as above $81,000.
Structurally, this rally is no longer just a simple technical rebound.
On one hand, the weakening dollar and improved expectations for U.S. Treasury repo have enhanced overall liquidity; on the other hand, BTC ETF inflows have clearly returned, and market risk appetite is recovering.
Currently, BTC’s biggest question is not "can it still rise," but:
Can it truly hold above $80K?
If $80K can turn from resistance into support, the market may next test:
$85K → $90K → $95K
and even revisit $100K.
But if BTC shows a volume spike near $80K followed by a pullback, I would be more cautious.
Because BTC has already seen a significant rise in the past week, short-term RSI, funding rates, and leverage positions may be getting crowded.
So my approach is:
Bullish on the trend, but don’t chase the first big green candle.
⸻
🔵 ETH: What really matters is whether it can keep up with BTC
ETH is currently around $2,500.
Compared to BTC, ETH’s movement is actually more interesting.
BTC has reclaimed $80K, but ETH is still noticeably below its previous highs.
This means ETH currently has two possibilities:
① BTC remains strong → ETH catches up
If BTC can hold above $80K and market risk appetite continues to spread, ETH is likely to become the main target for Beta-seeking funds in the next phase.
Key levels to watch:
$2,500 → $2,600 → $2,800
Only a clear break above $2,800 will significantly improve ETH’s mid-term structure.
② BTC spikes then falls → ETH becomes riskier
ETH’s short-term gains are already considerable, and market sentiment is heating up quickly.
If BTC fails above $80K, ETH is likely to be the high Beta asset that retraces more.
So ETH is better suited for:
Waiting for a pullback confirmation rather than chasing the rally directly.
⸻
🟣 HYPE: The strongest aspect is not price, but fundamentals forming positive feedback
HYPE is the asset I’m most focused on today.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE recently broke its previous high, reaching about $83.27 on August 23, setting a new all-time high. (The Crypto Times)
More importantly, HYPE’s rise is not just a Meme-style hype.
Hyperliquid’s trading volume, fee income, and on-chain derivatives ecosystem are all growing rapidly.
A very important catalyst recently:
U.S. regulators are discussing allowing Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. market in a more compliant manner, significantly reducing past regulatory risk concerns. (The Block)
So HYPE’s current logic has become:
Volume growth → Fee growth → Buybacks/value capture → Increased market attention → Increased liquidity → Further volume growth
This is a typical positive feedback loop.
But the problem is clear:
HYPE has already risen too much.
Near all-time highs, the most common risk is FOMO.
So I won’t chase just because it broke ATH.
Instead, I’m more focused on:
Whether $75–80 can become a new support zone.
If HYPE can maintain high-level consolidation after a pullback, and volume, open interest, and on-chain activity continue to grow, it may still deliver higher Beta than BTC/ETH.
⸻
📊 My current priorities for these three coins
From a pure trading structure perspective:
BTC: Core trend
ETH: Catch-up logic
HYPE: High Beta + fundamental growth
So I currently lean toward:
BTC to confirm the major cycle direction, ETH to observe if market risk appetite is spreading, and HYPE to watch if funds are entering high Beta assets.
What really deserves caution is not a sudden 5% drop in any single coin.
But rather:
BTC breaking key support + ETH/BTC weakening further + HYPE showing high volume but stagnating at highs.
If these three signals appear simultaneously, it means this Risk-on phase may be cooling off.
⸻
🔥 My current view
BTC: Slightly bullish, but $80K must hold
ETH: Slightly bullish, waiting for catch-up confirmation
HYPE: Strongest, but not recommended to chase emotionally
I currently prefer to define this rally as:
"Trend is strengthening again, but short-term has entered a high volatility zone."
So the most important thing ahead is not guessing the top.
But:
Waiting for the market to tell us whether the breakout is real or a liquidity trap.
DYOR, the above is my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #HYPE #Hyperliquid #Crypto #OKX
$BTC $ETH $HYPE $ZEC has reached $850! This rally is not driven by a single piece of news but is underpinned by the resonance of three capital and structural forces.
First, the compliance channel is about to open a gap. Grayscale has advanced the S-3 amendment for converting the Zcash Trust into a spot ETF to its fifth version. The process for ZCSH to list on NYSE Arca is at the final stage, and DCG has negotiated to inject about 200,000 ZEC. If realized, it will be the first US stock ETF directly investing in privacy coins, providing Wall Street allocation funds with a legitimate entry point.
Second, the circulating supply is continuously absorbed by the privacy layer. On-chain data shows shielded pool holdings account for about 30% of the circulating supply. The Orchard pool has locked over 4 million coins. Whales and long-term holders have basically exited the selling queue after hiding coins in zk addresses, tightening the available spot supply in the market. Even slight buying pressure can amplify price elasticity.
Third, the privacy narrative has regained an institution-friendly position. With increased global on-chain monitoring, asset concealment has become a necessity. ZEC’s optional privacy plus view keys make it easier to pass compliance than XMR, making it the most compliance-approachable in the privacy sector. Technically, the monthly chart has broken the long-standing descending trendline, and the area around 850 is just a consolidation platform after the breakout. A pullback does not change the intermediate upward structure.
ETF expectations, chip convergence, and privacy revaluation are all stacking up. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $TRUMP $SNDK