Orbit Post Sitemap
There is a frequently overlooked phenomenon in the market: after the same round of rally ends, the adjustment patterns of $BTC and $ETH are not the same.
$BTC's chip structure leans more towards long-term holding, with a large amount of early chips in a low liquidity state. After a rapid rise, some large funds tend to continue observing rather than cashing out all at once. Therefore, BTC's phased pullbacks are more due to contract leverage liquidations, short-term profit-taking, and other factors, resulting in a relatively gentle overall adjustment rhythm.
In contrast, ETH has stronger market liquidity. After a significant rise, short-term profit-taking, capital rotation, and some staking-related liquid chips may create more obvious selling pressure. Even if the overall market sentiment does not deteriorate significantly, ETH may experience independent pullbacks, causing its trend strength to diverge from BTC.
This is also where traders are most prone to misjudgment during high-level consolidation phases: BTC's stable performance does not necessarily mean ETH has the same level of support. Facing high-level markets, the two assets require different risk management strategies, especially in leveraged trading, where position control and stop-loss settings cannot be simply duplicated.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Currently, $SOL has climbed back above $100. On August 25, it briefly broke through $103 intraday, with a seven-day increase close to 35%; During the same period, BTC rose over 25% in one week and ETH increased over 30%. So this SOL rally is driven both by its own catalysis and by factors reflecting a recovery in risk appetite across the crypto community. Guys, SOL is really fierce this time! In just one week, SOL surged nearly 35%, directly climbing back above $100, and even surged to around $103 at one point. Many people might ask: Why did SOL suddenly surge so much? I don't think it's just a simple "pump"; there are at least several reasons 👇 1️behind it. ⃣ The entire crypto community is rising, and SOL is a highly elastic asset. BTC broke through $80,000 again, rising over 25% in the past week; ETH also rose more than 30%. When market risk appetite returns, funds tend not to buy only BTC but then look for mainstream counterfeits with higher elasticity. SOL has always been recognized as a high-beta product, so once the market starts, its gains often amplify significantly. 2️⃣ ETF funds keep flowing in, which is the key The biggest difference this time with SOL is that institutional funds have started to participate directly through ETFs. So far, the cumulative net inflow of the US spot Solana ETF has exceeded $1.16 billion, with about $33.49 million recorded in a single day on August 24. This means that what is currently driving SOL's rise is not just retail investor sentiment, but also traditional funds continuing to buy 3CRYPTO may already be front-running US's next liquidity wave. Bitcoin has surged from $62k to above $81k in under a week, a 30% rally. The move began after Treasury doubled long-term bond buybacks to at least $4B per operation. Since reports of Bessent’s potential $950B TGA firepower, BTC has gained another 4.7%. If deployed, that cash would leave Treasury’s Fed account and inject liquidity into the financial system. It could support bond prices, lower yields and push investors toward stocks andThe community is circulating a scenario where a single token mints a huge amount of stablecoins, and the high-leverage narrative is testing the market's risk appetite boundaries.
The third-party protocol Quoer has theoretically modeled the extreme state of minting stablecoins by collateralizing $CORE, but the related parameters are not open in actual operation.
If the underlying asset, valued at only $0.02 per token, carries extremely high multiples of derivative credit, even slight price disturbances can instantly breach the collateral safety buffer.
The leverage narrative is temporarily boosting speculative preference but also directly transmits the potential risk of liquidation to spot holders.
If the ecosystem relies on official staking and reserve assets to accumulate real liquidity, the warming of on-chain risk appetite will steadily improve asset turnover efficiency.
Once the spot price experiences a slight pullback, fragile collateral ratios will trigger a chain reaction of collateral auctions and stablecoin de-pegging.
If protocol governance explicitly seals off extreme collateral parameters in subsequent processes, the market's premium expectations for such liquidity leverage will gradually dissipate.
The most important variable to observe in the coming days is the speed at which on-chain funds divert positions between official native reserves and third-party high-leverage liquidity pools.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
I am Cige. The U.S. has officially launched its "economic isolation operation" against Iran, directly including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping in the secondary sanctions scope. Basent said it will be executed with "zero leakage," and relevant countries must shut down identified activities according to the timetable. The Iranian rial has fallen to a new low of 2,039,000 to 1 USD in the unofficial market.
But oil prices did not rise; instead, they fell. The market has not priced the sanction escalation as an immediate supply shock but is waiting for a more concrete outcome—whether third countries will cooperate and whether the sanctions can truly block Iran's oil and capital flows. If it’s just adding more names to the sanction list, the impact on oil prices is limited. If they start seizing ships, freezing accounts, and sanctioning banks, that will be a real supply shock.
Digital assets are specifically listed in the sanction list. This is the first time the U.S. government has included crypto assets as an independent sanction channel in an economic war against a sovereign country. The USDT in the Central Bank of Iran’s wallet has already been frozen once; this time, the entire channel is shut down. In the short term, this is bearish. The government is directly using USDT’s compliance to enforce sanctions, and the market will reassess stablecoin risks. In the medium term, sanctioned countries and entities have only two choices: either use more decentralized settlement methods or completely exit the dollar system. Whichever path they choose, BTC’s non-sovereign nature is being validated.
$BTC $ETH $BZ #TreasuryBuybackTest
Treasury buybacks can make the bond market smoother. They can't make America's debt problem disappear. Doubling the long-bond buyback cap may reduce volatility, but deficits, heavy issuance and inflation still determine what investors demand to lend for 30 years. That's the distinction I'm watching. Better liquidity can calm markets without creating cheaper money. If long yields stay elevated anyway, stocks, gold and BTC may still have to adjust.The most worth watching about $ETH these days is not how much it has risen, but that the same pressure zone has been repeatedly tested for a full 4 hours without ever closing above it; meanwhile, Farside reports that US ETH products have seen net inflows of about $808 million over six consecutive trading days, but the inflow rate has slowed in the last three days.
This is the current contradiction: the price is trying to accept upward movement, spot capital direction is still positive, but the new momentum has not continued to accelerate. Derivatives are also not showing typical one-sided runaway behavior—Bitget samples show significantly more long accounts, but the position sizes are nearly balanced. My judgment still leans bullish, but the "high-level turnover completion" is really just a hypothesis waiting to be verified now.
The key to the main path is only to recognize a full 4-hour close above 2,550, and then on the first pullback, not to fall back into the pressure zone; if this step is missed, I will wait first and still treat the rally as a pressure test within the range. If a full 4-hour close breaks below 2,355, the structure of raising the lows this round will no longer hold, and I will accept deeper digestion first without making up stories for the decline.
In the next update, I will only look at one question: when spot inflows continue to slow, can ETH turn the pressure into support; at which step would you take it as confirmation? 8-year high at 888, a 60% surge in one week, market cap breaking 14 billion, perpetual positions at 1.7 billion USD — but just now, ZEC price is violently fluctuating around 850, funding rates soaring, both longs and shorts liquidated. Is this wave the start of the “privacy coin revolution,” or just a pump by whales to hit an 8-year high waiting for you to take the bag?
On one side:
Grayscale Zcash ETF progressing steadily, the first privacy coin spot ETF
Weekly inverse head and shoulders breakout, confirming a major reversal
Mining institutionalization, Winklevoss group heavily invested
Ironwood upgrade + NU7 voting, active ecosystem
Privacy narrative becoming more valuable in the AI surveillance era
On the other side:
60% rise in one week, 70% in one month, seriously overbought
RSI 80-88, historically every time it hits this range there’s a correction
Institutional cost 300-400, 850 is the distribution zone
ETF expectations partially priced in, prone to "sell the news"
Regulatory risk: privacy coins are always targets
Any asset doubling in a short time needs to digest gains. Either sideways consolidation waiting for moving averages to catch up, or a direct pullback of 30-50%.
ZEC now is like SOL in 2021 —
From 5 to 50, everyone said "too expensive," then it went to 200. But when it dropped from 50 to 20, the harshest critics were the same people.
On the day 888 breaks out, you’ll realize:
It’s not that ZEC is bad, it’s that you always buy at the top and sell at the bottom. #Strategy increase issuance to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under focus The man who once frantically bought has completely changed. Previously, Saylor's approach was "financing → buying coins → refinancing → buying coins again," a high-leverage perpetual motion cycle. Now it has become "financing → hoarding cash → paying interest → waiting for opportunities." Why the change? Neither interest nor stock price allows him to continue recklessly. With 840,000 BTC at an average price of 75,385,#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？
Facing market turbulence caused by high long-term U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. Treasury plans to use the TGA (Treasury General Account) cash balance to expand long-term Treasury buybacks, attempting to ease liquidity pressure through administrative measures.
But can this combination really untie the deadlock of U.S. Treasuries?
Short-term liquidity buffer release: Using TGA funds to repurchase less liquid old bonds in the open market can indeed inject some liquidity into the banking system in the short term, lowering 30-year Treasury yields.
A financial shuffle that treats symptoms, not the root cause: TGA funds are essentially the government's existing fiscal deposits; using these deposits for buybacks is just asset-liability management moving money from one pocket to another and cannot offset the trillion-dollar fiscal deficits and the flood of bond issuance.
A breathing window on the asset side: The decline in long-term rates temporarily alleviates the valuation pressure on stocks and crypto markets, but
if the oversupply pattern does not change, the long-term rate baseline is still more likely to rise than fall.
How long do you think the Treasury can support U.S. Treasuries relying on the TGA? Have long-term rates really peaked?
$TLT $BTC $XAU #U.S.Treasuries #TGA #Liquidity #Treasury #Macroeconomics The inertia that BTC is moving and altcoins remain stagnant has already become market consensus, but the key variable now is when that consensus will be broken. On the surface, funds are flowing into BTC and ETH, while altcoins are being left out. However, what the price actually reflects is the market's judgment that "funds cannot move over," rather than "funds cannot move over." - BTC is approaching $80K, while ETH is holding at the $2.5K level. - Major altcoins such as LAB, BEAT, H, and KAITO have seen almost no movement. - Weekly inflows into US spot BTC and ETH ETFs amount to about $2.6 billion. The structure illustrated by this data is simple. Institutional funds are first building positions in index assets BTC and ETH, and the shift to altcoins has not yet begun. The market is currently trading risk premium reduction before expanding risk appetite. The question is when and under what conditions this trend will shift to altcoins. Upward scenarios and invalidation#Strategy increase issuance to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under focus
The man who once frantically bought has completely changed.
Previously, Saylor's approach was "financing → buying coins → refinancing → buying coins again," a high-leverage perpetual motion cycle. Now it has become "financing → hoarding cash → paying interest → waiting for opportunities."
Why the change? Neither interest nor stock price allows him to continue recklessly.
With 840,000 BTC at an average price of 75,385, the current price results in a book loss exceeding 10 billion. He also has to pay 1.76 billion in dividends and interest annually. Continuing to buy mindlessly like before is not faith, it's courting death.
So he first dismantled the "interest expense" bomb to let himself live longer.
The impact on the crypto circle is twofold.
First, the most steadfast bulls in the market have stopped, putting short-term sentiment under pressure. In recent years, people were used to Saylor calling trades weekly and continuously buying, but now that expectation is gone. However, this is not a signal that the bull market is over; he has never sold at the bottom, just changed his way of living.
Second, in the mid to long term, this is actually a good thing. The previous high-leverage cycle, once broken, would cause a chain reaction of explosions. Now, with 5.1 billion in cash plus 840,000 BTC, the base is actually more stable. He himself said he won't be forced to sell coins at unfavorable prices. Being able to survive without selling coins means the coins in hand will only become more valuable.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Years of ups and downs in the crypto world, from the 312 crash, the 519 clear-out to the FTX collapse, I've seen too many ways people exit the market. What's harder in trading: taking profits in time or cutting losses in time? My answer is clear: in the crypto world, taking profits in time is far more difficult than cutting losses in time. This is not to say cutting losses is easy, but taking profits requires fighting against things that are more hidden, more deadly, and a greater test of a trader's true caliber than cutting losses. Let's start with cutting losses. Crypto traders are no strangers to taking losses. High leverage and high volatility exponentially amplify the cost of mistakes, which ironically becomes a brutal forcing mechanism: if you don't cut losses, liquidation is the end. Over ten years, I've internalized cutting losses into muscle memory: set the stop-loss level as soon as you open a position, exit immediately when triggered, no questions asked. Cutting losses is against human nature, but at least it has a clear standard line, an inward, controllable pain. Making a wrong judgment is not scary; after admitting the mistake, cutting losses is actually a relief, the bottom line of risk control. Taking profits is a war on another dimension. The most toxic superstition in crypto is the get-rich-quick narrative. You take profits during a big rise—Bitcoin goes from 50,000 to 60,000, you tell yourself securing profits is right, but then it soars all the way to 100,000. Social media is full of cheers for those who hold on forever, and your rational profit-taking instantly gets painted as a lack of understanding. This fear of missing out is more tormenting than losses; losses mean losing what you had, but missing out is the phantom pain of what you should have had but missed. In behavioral finance, this is called post🐂 The triple drivers behind this rally (why OKB leads the platform coin gains) $OKB 1. Supply side: Largest burn ever + permanent total lock. In August 2025, OKX will permanently burn about 65.26 million OKB in one go, reducing total supply from 300 million to 21 million, and permanently removing minting and manual burn permissions, benchmarking Bitcoin's fixed total supply model. What does this mean? - Circulating supply plunged about 75%, instantly igniting absolute scarcity expectations - Any marginal demand growth is amplified by a tiny 21 million tokens into price elasticity - Narrative differs from BNB's model of relying on quarterly repo burns 2. Demand side: X Layer ecosystem data realization OKB is no longer a "fee discount coupon" but the sole gas token of the X Layer 2 network: - X Layer's DeFi TVL surpassed $117 million, nearly a tenfold increase in half a year - Stablecoin issuance exceeded $2 billion, entering the global public chain top ten - Over 4.2 million active addresses, more than 400 million on-chain transactions - Leading protocols like Aave and Uniswap deployed - xStocks tokenized shares on X Layer The trading volume share on Solana and Ethereum has surpassed that of Circle's native USDC integrated on August 7 Many people overlook a reality: after the same round of rally ends, the shakeout logic of BTC and ETH is completely different.
$BTC has a large amount of chips in a long-term dormant state. After a big surge, major holders tend to hold and observe rather than sell off in large quantities. The pullback mainly comes from liquidation shocks caused by contract leverage, so the downward rhythm is relatively mild. ETH's chip liquidity is much higher. After a significant rally, swing profit-taking and unlocked staked floating chips will concentrate on fleeing. Even if the overall market does not show obvious weakness, $ETH will still experience an independent retracement.
This is the tormenting part of the high-level phase: the overall market looks relatively stable, but the ETH retracement on hand exceeds expectations. Do not simply use BTC's resistance to decline to predict ETH's support strength. In a high-level oscillation market, ETH's support will be more fragile. When trading with leverage, position size and stop-loss standards must be treated differently for the two coins; one set of parameters cannot be universally applied.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ Good evening everyone!
$BTC BTC Bitcoin
The supply side has a hard cap of 21 million coins, with a halving mechanism that solidifies the deflationary rhythm. The new token supply continues to shrink, making it the only asset among the three with a fixed total supply. It is a commodity-type asset, similar to bulk commodities, whose value comes from scarcity and consensus, without interference from issuance variables.
Supply constraints are its biggest moat. Regardless of bull or bear markets, new selling pressure is predictable. Institutional allocations value this point, treating it as a risk hedge tool in portfolios. The downside is no intrinsic yield; the price is entirely determined by external buying. In the late bull market, opportunity cost can arise. When the market is euphoric, funds flow to tokens with ecosystem stories; but once panic hits, limited supply allows it to absorb safe-haven funds, with drawdowns significantly smaller than ETH and SOL.
$ETH ETH Ethereum
No hard total supply cap, uses dynamic issuance plus fee burning mechanism. When the network is active, it is deflationary; when sluggish, inflationary. Supply elasticity is large. It is a hybrid equity-commodity asset. Staking generates new tokens, while L2 solutions divert fees, directly affecting burn scale.
The dual nature of supply is very prominent: on-chain prosperity means burning exceeds issuance, token deflation, favorable for valuation; on-chain activity decline means issuance dominates, equivalent to implicit dilution. It is half like BTC pursuing scarcity, half like a tech equity relying on ecosystem value creation. This mixed attribute causes market swings: institutions are willing to allocate but are disturbed by inflation and SEC securities classification issues. Supply is not fixed; long-term supply changes highly depend on ecosystem development, with uncertainty higher than BTC.
$SOL SOL (Solana)
Inflation release is most obvious, token unlocking and staking rewards continuously increase circulating supply, no deflationary burn mechanism, long-term net issuance state. It is a high-growth risk asset, closer to early-stage tech growth stocks.
During rapid network development, the market ignores inflation, focusing on transaction performance and ecosystem explosion; but when the market weakens, continuous new token selling pressure amplifies declines. Staking ratio is much lower than ETH, allowing large amounts of tokens to quickly flow into secondary markets. Its core contradiction: the ecosystem needs continuous issuance to incentivize developers and validators, but issuance exerts long-term downward pressure on the token price. Only when on-chain revenue explodes enough to cover inflation dilution can supply pressure be absorbed; otherwise, issuance becomes a dark line suppressing valuation long-term.
The essential supply differences among the three: BTC supply is fixed; ETH supply fluctuates dynamically with the ecosystem; SOL relies on continuous issuance to drive the ecosystem. Under the current market, supply risks are not fully priced in. Once the bull market cools, tokens with greater supply elasticity will face heavier correction pressure. $SNDK The story of SanDisk is only half told
The narrative in the storage industry is shifting gears, but most people haven't caught on yet.
A friend who has worked in the storage industry for ten years shared a story: In 2019, he bought SanDisk for the first time when the stock price was just over 20, with a PE ratio of only 5. Analysts said NAND is cyclical, so after a rise, it would fall back. He believed it and sold after making 30%. Now SanDisk is at 1,493, up 529% YTD, and has increased 70 times in 7 years.
He said: The mistake back then was treating SanDisk as a cyclical stock. But the logic of storage has changed. Previously, NAND demand came from phones and PCs; if phones didn't sell, NAND would be oversupplied. Now demand comes from AI inference, and every inference generates data that must be stored. This is not cyclical fluctuation but structural growth.
KOSPI has dropped 30% from its June high, with Samsung and SK Hynix accounting for over 53% of KOSPI's market cap. Korean leveraged funds are deleveraging, but SanDisk's NBM has locked 67% of capacity. Viewing AI storage with a cyclical stock mindset is the biggest cognitive gap in this market.
Conclusion: Bullish in the medium term. Pullbacks are opportunities, not risks. Buy in batches below $1,400, and HBF mass production is the next catalyst.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The $80,000 mark has finally been broken. Is this a quick bull comeback or a bull trap?
Pharaoh says directly, $80,000 is a psychological barrier, not the final stop. This surge was driven by three forces pulling together—the Fed's buyback suppressing yields, shorts being liquidated to tears, and ETF institutions aggressively buying. These three factors combined pulled the price up over 25% in a week, with shorts liquidated for $7.2 billion in that same period.
Can $80,000 hold now? Pharaoh thinks the key depends on three points.
First, the short squeeze momentum is fading. Most shorts that could be liquidated have been, so whether the rally continues depends on whether spot buyers can take over.
Second, profit-taking is already happening. Short-term holders transferred 43,300 BTC to exchanges to realize profits—the largest profit-taking this year. The $78,000-$80,000 range is a solid technical support zone; if it holds, the bullish structure remains intact.
Third, $83,000 is the first major hurdle. Bitget Research Institute bluntly states that only a valid break above $83,000 can open the way to $90,000.
How does Pharaoh see the market going forward?
In the short term, it will likely oscillate between $75,000 and $83,000. The $80,000-$90,000 range has historically low trading volume and thin liquidity, so a wrong directional move could cause painful spikes.
Strategically, wait for a pullback near $78,000 to stabilize before acting. This is a hundred times safer than chasing above $80,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 "BIT Entities and Hyperliquid Bulls Liquidate $419 Million: New Whale Takes $1.2 Billion Profit in 3 Days, Who's Buying at the $80K Peak?"
Watching Bitcoin touch 81,000 and Ethereum reach 2,500, the entire market is shouting about the third wave of the bull market, yet the top on-chain bullish whales simultaneously liquidated all their long positions.
Eleven addresses linked to BIT entities closed $419 million worth of long positions in one go, locking in a pure profit of $55.095 million.
Hyperliquid's largest bull also simultaneously closed 120,000 ETH and 2,000 BTC positions, pocketing $61.72 million alone.
The new whale cashed out $1.2 billion in the past 3 days, setting the highest single-wave profit record ever recorded in the crypto space.
As $1.92 billion in ETFs flooded in to act as counterparties, the main players have converted all their longs into stablecoins, leaving only the chasing bulls holding high positions with high fees. $BTC 【Before BTC's second wave of rise, the market is waiting for a decent pullback】
BTC last week broke through the descending trendline and the bottom wedge in one go, closing the weekly candle with a strong bullish candlestick. This indicates that the bearish structure has been broken, and it is more likely to enter a fluctuating upward trend rather than a rebound solely supported by a short squeeze.
There is also support from the capital side:
1. The U.S. Treasury has expanded long-term bond repurchases, and the market is re-trading the depreciation of the dollar and liquidity easing.
2. $BTC spot ETF net inflow was about $1.92B in a single week.
3. Demand for spot and perpetual contracts has simultaneously turned positive, and Coinbase premium has also started to rise.
Of course, as retail investors re-enter, whales have also begun to slightly offload, so the risk/reward of chasing highs in the short term is not good. BTC still has the possibility of further correction; the downside target is first $74,000, then the 0.5 to 0.618 golden pocket.
If the historical rhythm repeats, $BTC may first test the previous high, then pull back to the gap, close with a long lower shadow, and only then start the real second wave of rise.
History will not repeat exactly, but market structures often rhyme. Will you wait for the pullback to go long, or do you think BTC will no longer give opportunities? $xSNDK storage sector took another hit last night: SanDisk dropped over 6%, Seagate dropped over 6%, Western Digital dropped over 5%, Micron dropped over 5%, SK Hynix dropped nearly 5%. Today, South Korea's KOSPI fell over 3%, with Hynix dropping more than 6% intraday.
Two consecutive days of sharp declines, and Samsung is to blame: Samsung announced a shareholder return plan of up to 110 trillion KRW, but JPMorgan said it "did not exceed expectations," with no stock buybacks or dividend scale disappointing, directly dragging down sentiment across the entire storage sector.
But has the logic changed? No. HBM supply-demand imbalance remains, Hynix's 50% market share remains, AI computing power demand remains. What changed is sentiment: stubborn inflation, escalating US-Canada trade frictions, hedge funds accelerating sell-offs. Storage is one of the sectors with the largest gains in this rally, with the heaviest profit-taking, so the sell-off is naturally the harshest.
Hynix's own positive news is also there: on August 19, it announced the largest buyback plan in South Korean history, 40 trillion KRW (about $28.9 billion), canceling 3.3% of shares.
Key timing: Nvidia's earnings report after market close on Wednesday. NVDA's earnings guidance will directly determine HBM demand expectations, and the storage sector will follow.
Trading strategy: Watch for SanDisk to stabilize around 1,000-1,050 and KOSPI including Hynix to stabilize before considering. The cycle is not over, but bottom-fishing is not urgent these days. It's safer to decide direction after earnings. [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The TRUMP team has started unloading again. Will it ever stop after this round of dumping?
Pharaoh says directly, this is neither the first time nor the last. The team has already figured out the playbook—rumor-driven pump, selling at the peak, son’s denial, the three-step routine executed seamlessly. Pharaoh is familiar with this script. Last week, rumors that "Trump is launching a new coin on the Robinhood chain" were everywhere, causing TRUMP to surge 80% straight to $3.6, only for his son Eric to immediately call it "fake."
On-chain data doesn’t lie. The team’s address first transferred 3.837 million tokens to OKX, worth $9.33 million; then sold 1.1 million tokens using a "one-way liquidity addition" method at an average price of $2.68, exchanging for 2.94 million USDC.
Will the selling pressure continue? Pharaoh’s judgment is yes. 80% of the supply is still held by the Trump family, totaling 800 million tokens. As long as the price rises and liquidity returns, the motivation to unload remains constant. Currently, TRUMP is around $2.5, down 97% from the all-time high of $73, but $2.5 is still a huge profit for the team.
Remember, this is not a reduction in holdings; it’s a "planned, paced, and strategic continuous monetization." Good trades are meant to be waited for. For such a transparent unloading scenario, watch more and act less. $BTC $ETH $OKB #TRUMP关联地址减持，抛压会否延续？ #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨
On the morning of August 25, spot gold surged close to $4700, with a cumulative increase of nearly 14% since August. A Kitco News survey shows that 73% of Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, while the rest anticipate consolidation at high levels—no one is bearish.
Institutions are collectively taking sides. Goldman Sachs believes the original year-end target of $4900 is now conservative, stating that gold prices have entered a "mechanical acceleration zone" driven by option short covering; UBS maintains a year-end target of $4600 and newly forecasts $5400 by September 2027; Citi raised its 3-month target to $4800; JPMorgan maintains a year-end target of $6000. Thirteen gold ETFs have seen a combined net inflow of nearly 40 billion yuan in the past month, with Huaan Gold ETF's monthly scale increasing by over 15 billion yuan.
The driving logic is clear: U.S. dollar credit is loosening. U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the market is repricing "risk-free assets." The simultaneous surge in gold and long-term bond yields is the most direct pricing signal of U.S. dollar credit.
Short-term risks of chasing highs are accumulating, with three institutions simultaneously warning of "overheated positions." However, central bank gold purchasing trends remain intact; in Q2, global central banks net purchased 288.9 tons of gold, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 411%. The $4600 level is a signal, not the end point. The real driving logic is not how high gold prices can go, but what assets can still be considered "safe" under $40 trillion of debt.$BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元, can it hold a new level 🔥? Over 558 million orders washed over the weekend, BTC broke 81,000 on the night of August 24, ETH reached 2533! "Short flat bull" dies off, "ETF + depreciation trading bull" takes over: 80k hits bottom, 85k is the next cut. From 21:12 on August 24, 2026 to the early morning of August 25, BTC peaked at $81,270 (first time breaking 81,000 since May), currently at $80,970 (24h +4.59%); ETH peaked at $2,533, now at 2,520–2,533 (24h +3%~+4%). Weekly chart: BTC +22.6%, ETH +28%, the best weekly since 2023. 🌍 Latest variables from the evening of 8/24 to the early morning of 8/25: US Treasury 'hidden QE' fulfillment: Becent will repurchase 2 billion → 4 billion per long-term bond deal, 30Y yield down from 5.337% to 5.23%–5.28%, 10Y 4.70%, US dollar index weak at 98.8→ 'de-dollarization + currency depreciation trading' restarting, BTC and gold (4,700) soaring. ETF weekly inflows of 2.5–2.6 billion: BTC ETFs had a net inflow of 1.92 billion from 8/17 to 8/21 (606 million in a single day on 8/20), ETH ETFs had weekly gains of 697 million, totaling about 2.6 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October 2025; After the US market opened on 8/24#StrategyBuildsCash Strategy sold approximately 18.26 million MSTR shares between August 17 and 23, generating about $2.007 billion in net proceeds. The company did not buy or sell Bitcoin during the period and continues to hold 840,447 BTC. Part of the proceeds repurchased STRC preferred shares, while $300 million increased its USD Reserve to $5.1 billion. Strategy placed another roughly $1.59 billion into a separate “USD Cash” pool.
Building liquidity lowers the risk that Strategy must sell Bitcoin to meet preferred dividends, interest or debt obligations. The flexible cash pool may also be used for future BTC purchases, security repurchases or debt repayment. However, selling common shares dilutes existing holders, especially if proceeds are not used in a way that increases Bitcoin exposure per share. The next allocation decision will therefore be important. Buying BTC could restore Strategy’s role as a structural market buyer, while repurchasing shares may be more attractive if MSTR trades below the value of its assets.Taking a quick look at Strategy's recent moves, I just want to say: Saylor, that old fox, has finally learned to "play it safe and grow." 😂
Before, it was "buy, buy, buy blindly," now it's "hoard cash to survive." A paper loss of 8.2 billion dollars in Q2—who wouldn't be nervous? With over 10 billion in paper losses on the books and having to pay 1.76 billion in interest annually, if he kept blindly adding positions like before, that would be true "bravery." Now he's smart—last week he cashed out 334 million dollars and immediately boosted the dollar reserves to 4.8 billion. This isn't cowardice; it's preserving resources to keep going. 🌲
Then there's the holding cost—840,447 $BTC at an average price of 75,385 dollars, and the coin price is still underwater. 📉 If this were a retail investor, they'd have cut losses hundreds of times by now. But institutions play the "long game." Pausing purchases now is clearly to "insure" the balance sheet, avoiding forced selling at the bottom to pay debts.
As for what the 4.8 billion in cash is for? It's obviously a "wait" tactic. Waiting for a better price, waiting for a deeper dip. Not buying now doesn't mean not buying later—just holding back for a big move. As for $MSTR shareholders, bear the dilution for now; at least the company is still alive, and the pie is still there. 🍪
Don't expect him to pump the market in the short term; the biggest positive is that he can hold steady and not sell. Just wait, when it really bottoms out, this 4.8 billion will be the fiercest "bottom-fishing rocket." 🚀
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 The macroeconomic front did not provide new reasons for market easing today. The U.S. continues to ramp up sanctions on Iran, oil prices remain temporarily stable, but geopolitical risks have not disappeared; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still above 4.7%, and the pressure of high interest rates on risk assets persists. What really needs to be watched this week are the PCE, GDP revisions, and the Federal Reserve Chairman's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting. The market is currently betting on capital inflows rather than a macroeconomic recovery.
However, spot funds are indeed continuously flowing in. On the last U.S. stock trading day, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $337.6 million, ETH net inflow of $115.6 million, and SOL products recorded a net inflow of $33.5 million. The continuous capital support is the most solid foundation for this rebound, but the market has been rising consecutively. While there is positive news, it is increasingly difficult to explain continued buying at high levels simply as "just released news."
Regarding long and short positions, BTC large accounts hold 46.7% long and 53.3% short, with shorts still slightly dominant; funding rates remain positive, indicating that the willingness of longs to pay has not disappeared. BTC open interest rose intraday to about 108,500 coins before falling back to around 107,000 coins. When prices surged, new leverage was added, and some deleveraging occurred during the pullback. This structure is not extremely crowded, but every surge above 80,000 requires caution against a rapid pullback after longs chase prices and shorts cover simultaneously.Updated: 2026-08-25 COP (Electricity Cost): $58,837 / BTC AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost): $76,488 / BTC BTC Price: $80,130 (Aug 25, 15:24 VNT) Price / COP: 1.36x Price / AISC: 1.05x => Hold, observe & wait zone 200W SMA: +24.1% (vs 200W SMA) Weekly RSI: 53.0 Market Insights: Bitcoin has officially reclaimed its position above the All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of mining. Following 10 weeks of consolidation around the 200-week SMA (from W24 through W33), BTC surged sharply, currently sitting +24.1%I’m bullish on Unitree Technology and the humanoid robotics theme for the long run. But at these valuations, I’d rather watch than chase. Unitree IPO’d at ¥150.8, then briefly surged above ¥1,100 — a move of more than 600%. Even after the sharp pullback, the valuation still reflects extremely aggressive expectations for future humanoid-robot growth. The business is growing fast: 2025 revenue reached ¥1.699B, with net profit of ¥278M. That’s impressive. But the key question isn’t whether Unitree Even people close to Bassett are opposing! $XAU above 4680, the bulls are playing with fire
The biggest news tonight: Billionaire Druckenmiller, who once advised Bassett, publicly slammed the Treasury's bond buyback as a "wrong decision"—"Governments trying to fight fundamentals by manipulating prices always fail." Even his own mentor doesn't support him, this drama is quite interesting.
On the other hand, Bassett changed his tune on the "economic D-day": "We haven't bought a single bond yet, the next operation will wait until September 9." Previously hinted buybacks might exceed 4 billion, now clearly pulling back.
1-hour chart: Bulls aren't broken, but divergence has sounded the alarm.
After a morning surge near 4700, it pulled back, with the European session oscillating between 4640-4670. Moving averages are bullishly aligned, MA60 supports around 4609. But MACD bearish divergence has appeared—the price is still pushing up, but momentum can't keep up.
Smart money data: Bulls' average entry price is 4501, with unrealized profits of 4.18 million USD. 4680-4700 is the upper edge of a dense trading zone; these unrealized profits could turn into selling pressure at any time.
Dalio says the US debt crisis could erupt as soon as a year from now, recommending a 10%-15% gold allocation. Citi raised the 3-month target price to 4800 but added: "This rally is mainly driven by speculative funds; for the uptrend to continue, physical demand must catch up."
Mid-to-long-term bulls are fine, but chasing above 4680 in the short term? Think carefully.
Trading advice:
Long: Aggressive traders at current price, conservative traders on pullbacks near 4620-4600
Short: Short on rallies near 4680-4700 resistance
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
First, why did it drop? Actually, it's not that complicated. The US talked tough this time, but in reality, it didn't affect Iran's exports, and the Strait of Hormuz is fine. The market was too tense before, so the geopolitical premium suddenly dissipated. Plus, the funds that were lying in wait for sanctions took the opportunity to flee, so oil prices naturally fell 😅
From a technical perspective, the daily trend is still upward, but the short-term rally was too strong, and now it's clearly taking a breather. 84.5 is a key level, the lower boundary of this rising box. As long as it doesn't break, the bulls can still gather strength for another push. The 86 level has been tested repeatedly today; after sanctions land, selling pressure piles up here. If it can't hold, it will continue to oscillate. If 84.5 is broken, then 83.5-82.5 is the real buying zone. To restart the rally above, volume must break through 88.5; otherwise, the resistance zone between 87.2-88.5 is tough to overcome 🤣
The 4-hour MACD has formed a death cross, and RSI has dropped. Short term, expect it to fluctuate between 84.5-87.2, don't expect a one-sided surge or plunge.
Now, about the impact on the crypto space:
In the short term, the drop in oil prices cools inflation expectations, dollar liquidity is less tight, plus BTC ETFs keep buying and the technicals have stabilized above 80,000. Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative is actually stronger, and the market is relatively strong. In the medium term, as long as crude oil doesn't break 82.5, the Middle East situation isn't fully settled, inflation persists, and crypto won't go directly bearish. If oil prices continue to weaken, expectations for dollar easing rise, which could actually benefit crypto; conversely, if oil jumps back above 88, inflation worries return, and risk assets will get hit.
In practice, the market mainly follows BTC's technicals; crude oil is just an emotional side player. As long as BTC holds 79,500, the bullish pattern remains intact. Don't chase at highs, buy on dips, keep this rhythm steady 😎
That's all for now
$BZ $BTC BTC breaks through 80,000, ETH catches up, HYPE hits a new high—how far can this rally go?
Today's market has a very clear characteristic:
BTC has reclaimed $80,000, ETH is around $2,500, and HYPE has already led the way to a historic high.
This means the market is spreading from a pure BTC rebound gradually toward ETH and high Beta assets.
But here, I actually do not recommend chasing the rally.
What I’m more focused on is: Is this rise a trend reversal or just a highly volatile liquidity-driven move?
⸻
🟠 BTC: Reclaims $80K, trend starts to strengthen
BTC today broke above $80,000 again, reaching as high as above $81,000.
Structurally, this rally is no longer just a simple technical rebound.
On one hand, the weakening dollar and improved expectations for U.S. Treasury repo have enhanced overall liquidity; on the other hand, BTC ETF inflows have clearly returned, and market risk appetite is recovering.
Currently, BTC’s biggest question is not "can it still rise," but:
Can it truly hold above $80K?
If $80K can turn from resistance into support, the market may next test:
$85K → $90K → $95K
and even revisit $100K.
But if BTC shows a volume spike near $80K followed by a pullback, I would be more cautious.
Because BTC has already seen a significant rise in the past week, short-term RSI, funding rates, and leverage positions may be getting crowded.
So my approach is:
Bullish on the trend, but don’t chase the first big green candle.
⸻
🔵 ETH: What really matters is whether it can keep up with BTC
ETH is currently around $2,500.
Compared to BTC, ETH’s movement is actually more interesting.
BTC has reclaimed $80K, but ETH is still noticeably below its previous highs.
This means ETH currently has two possibilities:
① BTC remains strong → ETH catches up
If BTC can hold above $80K and market risk appetite continues to spread, ETH is likely to become the main target for Beta-seeking funds in the next phase.
Key levels to watch:
$2,500 → $2,600 → $2,800
Only a clear break above $2,800 will significantly improve ETH’s mid-term structure.
② BTC spikes then falls → ETH becomes riskier
ETH’s short-term gains are already considerable, and market sentiment is heating up quickly.
If BTC fails above $80K, ETH is likely to be the high Beta asset that retraces more.
So ETH is better suited for:
Waiting for a pullback confirmation rather than chasing the rally directly.
⸻
🟣 HYPE: The strongest aspect is not price, but fundamentals forming positive feedback
HYPE is the asset I’m most focused on today.
Hyperliquid’s HYPE recently broke its previous high, reaching about $83.27 on August 23, setting a new all-time high. (The Crypto Times)
More importantly, HYPE’s rise is not just a Meme-style hype.
Hyperliquid’s trading volume, fee income, and on-chain derivatives ecosystem are all growing rapidly.
A very important catalyst recently:
U.S. regulators are discussing allowing Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. market in a more compliant manner, significantly reducing past regulatory risk concerns. (The Block)
So HYPE’s current logic has become:
Volume growth → Fee growth → Buybacks/value capture → Increased market attention → Increased liquidity → Further volume growth
This is a typical positive feedback loop.
But the problem is clear:
HYPE has already risen too much.
Near all-time highs, the most common risk is FOMO.
So I won’t chase just because it broke ATH.
Instead, I’m more focused on:
Whether $75–80 can become a new support zone.
If HYPE can maintain high-level consolidation after a pullback, and volume, open interest, and on-chain activity continue to grow, it may still deliver higher Beta than BTC/ETH.
⸻
📊 My current priorities for these three coins
From a pure trading structure perspective:
BTC: Core trend
ETH: Catch-up logic
HYPE: High Beta + fundamental growth
So I currently lean toward:
BTC to confirm the major cycle direction, ETH to observe if market risk appetite is spreading, and HYPE to watch if funds are entering high Beta assets.
What really deserves caution is not a sudden 5% drop in any single coin.
But rather:
BTC breaking key support + ETH/BTC weakening further + HYPE showing high volume but stagnating at highs.
If these three signals appear simultaneously, it means this Risk-on phase may be cooling off.
⸻
🔥 My current view
BTC: Slightly bullish, but $80K must hold
ETH: Slightly bullish, waiting for catch-up confirmation
HYPE: Strongest, but not recommended to chase emotionally
I currently prefer to define this rally as:
"Trend is strengthening again, but short-term has entered a high volatility zone."
So the most important thing ahead is not guessing the top.
But:
Waiting for the market to tell us whether the breakout is real or a liquidity trap.
DYOR, the above is my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #HYPE #Hyperliquid #Crypto #OKX
$BTC $ETH $HYPE $ZEC has reached $850! This rally is not driven by a single piece of news but is underpinned by the resonance of three capital and structural forces.
First, the compliance channel is about to open a gap. Grayscale has advanced the S-3 amendment for converting the Zcash Trust into a spot ETF to its fifth version. The process for ZCSH to list on NYSE Arca is at the final stage, and DCG has negotiated to inject about 200,000 ZEC. If realized, it will be the first US stock ETF directly investing in privacy coins, providing Wall Street allocation funds with a legitimate entry point.
Second, the circulating supply is continuously absorbed by the privacy layer. On-chain data shows shielded pool holdings account for about 30% of the circulating supply. The Orchard pool has locked over 4 million coins. Whales and long-term holders have basically exited the selling queue after hiding coins in zk addresses, tightening the available spot supply in the market. Even slight buying pressure can amplify price elasticity.
Third, the privacy narrative has regained an institution-friendly position. With increased global on-chain monitoring, asset concealment has become a necessity. ZEC’s optional privacy plus view keys make it easier to pass compliance than XMR, making it the most compliance-approachable in the privacy sector. Technically, the monthly chart has broken the long-standing descending trendline, and the area around 850 is just a consolidation platform after the breakout. A pullback does not change the intermediate upward structure.
ETF expectations, chip convergence, and privacy revaluation are all stacking up. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $TRUMP $SNDK First, looking at the whale address section on the chart, there was a net inflow of 765 whales yesterday. Overall, as prices continue to surge, on-chain stocks have remained relatively calm, showing sustained moderate net inflows. In stark contrast, spot ETFs have seen high-intensity net inflows. This wave of market activity is even more attractive to European and American users, with very high sentiment. Or rather, this round is still dominated by Wall Street capital, with both strength and sustainability visible to the naked eye. So I think this major rally should last for quite some time. Back to the market, based on the current trend, my views are: 1. If there is a correction, even a large one, it is an opportunity. This is a bullish reversal move in a bear market environment that can be seized. No matter what happens, at present, going long won't trap anyone. On the contrary, iron bears can easily become fuel for a breakout. However, prices won't keep rising indefinitely. I believe the strong resistance will be around 83k to 84k. Only if bulls can capture this area can the upper level be pushed down again. But can bulls easily capture this area? It won't be easy. This level is very likely to cause a temporary correction in the market. Once the adjustment is complete, it will continue to push upward. So in the future, if the price encounters resistance and pulls back within this major resistance range, we should consider becoming a short-term bear. As for now, it's not recommended to be short on iron positions. If you must do it, you must also manage your risk well to avoid successful market liquidation. 2. Is the price really going upward?#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？
The market is treating this use of the TGA account to repurchase long-term bonds as a mini fiscal QE for speculation, but in essence, it is more of a short-term pain relief and is unlikely to fundamentally solve the root cause of rising long-term bond yields.
Underlying logic of the event
TGA is the cash reservoir the U.S. government holds at the Federal Reserve, currently close to 950 billion in scale, originally used for government spending and emergency buffering.
Now the plan is to use this cash to increase long-term bond repurchases, aiming to absorb illiquid old long-term bonds and suppress soaring long-end yields. Once the news broke, U.S. Treasury yields briefly fell, BTC and gold rose in tandem, with traders betting on expectations of looser liquidity.
Why it is a temporary fix, not a fundamental solution
1. It does not solve the core problem of the fiscal deficit
The root cause of rising U.S. Treasury yields is the huge fiscal deficit and oversupply of government bonds. Repurchases only buy old bonds in the secondary market and do not reduce the total debt amount; they merely adjust the debt maturity structure, leaving the deficit issue untouched. After TGA cash is consumed, short-term debt will have to be issued to replenish the cash pool, merely shifting the pressure forward.
2. The scale is insignificant compared to the overall size
The total U.S. Treasury market is in the tens of trillions, while a single repurchase is only in the tens of billions, which can only improve liquidity of some old bonds locally and is unlikely to reverse the overall long-term bond bear market trend.
3. Risks will be transferred
The cost of forcibly suppressing long-end rates is likely to weaken the dollar and raise inflation expectations. The pressure in the bond market does not disappear but is transmitted to exchange rates and commodities.US Launches "Zero Leakage" Sanctions on Iran: The Triangular Repricing of Gold, Crude Oil, and Bitcoin
The United States has officially initiated an "economic isolation operation" against Iran, including digital assets, gold, technology, and shipping in secondary sanctions, and threatens to force countries to fully comply with a "zero leakage" approach.
Under heavy pressure, the Iranian rial exchange rate has hit a historic low of 2,039,000 to 1 USD. However, international crude oil prices have not surged in panic; the market is still assessing the real penetration of the sanctions: How cooperative will third countries be? Can underground oil and cross-border capital flows be effectively blocked?
If crude oil exports are obstructed, the global asset pricing chain will be forced to rewrite:
First, the risk of inflation rebound. Secondary energy inflation triggered by tightened crude oil supply will directly suppress the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts and delay the liquidity turning point.
Second, the differentiation of safe-haven assets. Geopolitical confrontations and sovereign credit fractures will strengthen gold's ultimate safe-haven premium; meanwhile, Bitcoin faces a sharp binary split: fiat currency depreciation and cross-border settlement obstacles reinforce its "non-sovereign censorship resistance" demand, but the dollar liquidity tightening caused by inflation rebound will suppress risk asset valuations in the short term.
The tighter the sanctions, the clearer the value anchor for non-sovereign assets. In the short term, it depends on energy supply and macro liquidity; in the long term, it depends on the migration of de-dollarization chips.
Against the backdrop of escalating sanctions, do you favor gold's defense or Bitcoin's breakout?
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #TRUMP关联地址减持，抛压会否延续？ Recently, the crypto market sentiment has warmed up, and the meme coin sector has become active again. Among them, $TRUMP (OFFICIAL TRUMP), which is highly tied to a political figure, is one of the focal points. In the past week, this token's price surged nearly 75%–80%, then entered a high-level consolidation phase. This article will objectively review the current situation from multiple dimensions for your reference and discussion. (Compiled from online information combined with personal views) 1. Fundamentals and Latest Market Overview $TRUMP is an official Trump-themed meme coin based on the Solana chain. The total supply is about 1 billion tokens. The current circulating ratio is about 20%–25% (approximately 200 million–250 million tokens). The current price is running near the $2.45–$2.50 range, with a market cap of about $500–600 million, and the 24-hour trading volume remains at a relatively high level. Historically, this token briefly surged above $70 shortly after its launch in January 2025, then sharply declined, currently down more than 96% from its historical high. The strong rebound in the past week also made it one of the leading meme coins, but after the surge, there was obvious profit-taking, and short-term volatility intensified. 2. Analysis of Upward Driving Factors The recent rise was mainly driven by the following factors: Macro and policy sentiment catalyst: The White House recently held a cryptocurrency-related meeting, and the Trump administration publicly released positive signals (including discussions on digital asset reserves, promoting related legislation, etc.). MarketAlibaba increases share placement to boost AI, the market's first reaction is to dislike dilution
This reaction is very real. Investors are not against AI investment, but they fear the company will stuff all growth anxieties into the "AI infrastructure" basket. Cloud business needs to be pursued, models need to be developed, computing power needs to be purchased, fast commerce still needs to burn money, so where will the money come from in the end? First from the shareholders' pockets
But on the other hand, it must be admitted: if Alibaba doesn't spend money, it will be more passive in the AI cloud and large model ecosystem. The question is not whether to invest, but whether after investing, cloud revenue, customer stickiness, and profit margins can all improve together
This is the most difficult part. In the AI era, not investing means falling behind, investing too aggressively hurts shareholders. Alibaba is now betting that future returns can cover today's dilution
#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ Crude oil fell, Bitcoin rose
Many people immediately told a story: oil price falls → inflation drops → interest rate cuts come → money becomes cheaper → Bitcoin rises.
Sounds logical.
But the problem is: it might only be half right.

Crude oil falling does not mean inflation has truly dropped
A drop in oil prices can indeed ease inflationary pressure.
But if the decline is due to weakening demand, it may reflect not cooling inflation but a worsening economy.
If the drop is just a temporary easing of geopolitical risks, it may only reflect a change in sentiment, not a fundamental improvement.

Bitcoin rising is not entirely due to liquidity
Bitcoin breaking through $80,000 is often attributed to "interest rate cut expectations."
But a more honest explanation is: ETF inflows, short liquidations, market sentiment, and narrative resonance are all playing a role simultaneously.
Interest rate cut expectations only provide imagination space, not the sole reason.

Correlation ≠ Causation
Crude oil falling and Bitcoin rising does not mean the former causes the latter.
More accurately, they may both be driven by an underlying variable: macro liquidity expectations.
They are more like two kites pulled by the same string—the wind blows, both fly up; when the wind stops, they may both fall together.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $BTC $ETH $CL #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level?
After $BTC broke through $80,000, it did not immediately start a new round of acceleration and fell back below $80,000 during the session.
I actually think this is quite normal. Over the past week, BTC surged from around $63,000 to above $80,000, an increase of nearly 25%, and the market fear and greed index has already reached 82—Extreme Greed. Such a large amount of profit-taking accumulated in such a short time naturally needs to be digested. (MEXC)
But the biggest difference now compared to before is that funds have not significantly withdrawn. The US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive days last week, totaling nearly $2 billion, and IBIT alone had about $1 billion inflow in one week.
So I will not conclude that the market is over just because it fell back below $80,000 for now. Instead, it may enter a more difficult trading phase:
There are profit-taking positions near $80,000–$81,000 above, and ETF and spot funds are buying below.
This kind of market often results in back-and-forth oscillations and repeated false breakouts, washing out both those chasing the rally and those selling the dip.
If ETF funds continue to flow in, the oscillation actually helps digest the previous gains; what really needs caution is when the price consolidates or even hits new highs, but new funds start to noticeably slow down.
The most tormenting market in a bull run is often not a crash, but when you know the trend might still be intact, yet you doubt yourself every day amid the oscillations.$ZEC surged from 450 to 888 in two weeks, rising 70% in a month and hitting an 8-year high. The 24h futures volume soared to tens of billions, with FOMO fully triggered. The weekly chart shows a head and shoulders reversal plus bullish Ichimoku confirmation, but the daily RSI is over 80 and the Bollinger upper band is under pressure. The jump from 450 to 888 had almost no decent pullback, making the parabolic end prone to backlash.
The bullish factors are all clear: Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF filing has been under revision since May, with price running ahead; Cypherpunk (with Gemini background) controls about 18% of the hashrate, estimated cost 300-400, with positions built below 450 early on, and 850+ is a distribution zone, not accumulation; NU7 voting starts today for 18 days, Ironwood's new pool has already attracted flow, and the governance narrative intensifies volatility.
A hard push to 850 means institutional distribution.
For those really wanting to trade: short-term buy dips at 820-800 with stop loss at 780, target 880-900; conservative traders wait for volume to push back above 888 before following, or wait for a pullback to 750-780 to build positions. Only consider shorting if daily close breaks below 780, targeting 650/600. Resistance clusters at 888→960→1000 above, and key bullish support at 820→780→750 below.
$TRUMP $HYPE
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 The Jackson Hole annual meeting officially kicked off this week, and what the market is holding its breath waiting for is not the data itself, but one person—Wash. Since the July FOMC meeting, he has yet to provide clear policy guidance, which has led to mounting doubts about the Fed's transparency. In this speech, he must answer at least one question: which data will the Fed focus on to decide its next move? If the explanation remains vague, interest rate expectations will continue to waver in the fog, and asset prices will have to test sentiment back and forth. The PCE releases, adjusted GDP figures, and durable goods orders released this week form three touchstones to test the stickiness of inflation. What the market truly cares about is not the individual quality of these numbers, but the synergy formed when they overlap with Walsh's statements. In other words, Jackson Hole's pricing logic has never been driven by a single event, but is a comprehensive calibration of policy signals and macro data. Back to Bitcoin itself, after repeatedly being blocked in the 79,500 to 80,000 range, the price has pulled back and is currently hovering around 77,500. The sentiment conveyed by this level is straightforward: the market lacks willingness to sustain the push above the 80,000 level, and every approach is accompanied by obvious selling pressure. If Walsh's wording is hawkish, 80,000 is likely the stage high of this rally, with subsequent downsides roughly between 74,000 and 75,000. Conversely, if a dovish signal is released, regaining the 80,000 level will open up space above again. Frankly, before the speech is implemented, any heavy position betting on a direction is essentially a gamble on luck. The current low price volatilityWhile BTC is heading toward $80,000, altcoins remain stagnant. What is the biggest variable that will break this trend? BTC is approaching the $80,000 mark, while ETH is hovering sideways around $2,500. On the other hand, some altcoins such as LAB, BEAT, H, and KAITO have seen almost no movement. This divergence shows that market funds have not yet spread across broad altcoins and remain concentrated in large-cap assets. US spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of about $2.6 billion. This indicates that institutional demand remains robust. However, interestingly, this capital has not yet flowed beyond BTC and ETH into small- and mid-cap coins. This structure marks a turning point to determine whether the market has entered a risk-seeking phase. The current supply and demand is clear. Institutional funds are first building positions in BTC and ETH, which are safe liquidity zones, while altcoins remain on the sidelines. Looking at past patterns, large-cap assets have not reached a certain levelThis round of rally may seem lively on the surface, but the momentum is not particularly healthy. Behind the surge in market sentiment, there was more concentrated liquidation of short positions, forming a typical squeeze rally. $BTC once approached $80,000, and $ETH was rapidly moving toward the $2,800 target, with many friends already envisioning higher skies. But the more such a straight-line rally it is, the more it needs to calm down and consider whether the pullback and volatility have also been amplified. The term price target sounds like a definite outcome, but essentially it is just an expectation we make based on current information. 80,000 and 2,800 are common psychological barriers for market participants, not a script that has already been written. What really hangs in the air is the PCE inflation data to be released next week, as well as key statements at Jackson Hole's global central bank annual meeting. The market is now trading ahead of expectations of "good news," meaning that once macro data falls short of expectations or officials send hawkish signals, assets that rose earlier tend to be sharper when pulling back. Rapid insertion at high levels could wash out both bulls and bears. This is not alarmist but a recurring norm in the leveraged market. Another easily overlooked detail is that although the market is generally strong, internal divergence is very obvious. Bitcoin, as the leading company, does not mean that all coins can share equally in this trend. $TRUMP's recent performance was one such exampleThe U.S. sanctions Iran, listing digital assets on the blacklist for the first time!
The U.S. Treasury's new round of sanctions on Iran covers digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. Bassent calls this an economic D-Day, with Trump pressuring countries to cut ties, having targeted nearly 60 entities and seized close to $1 billion in crypto assets this year.
Digital assets appear explicitly on the sanctions list for the first time, which actually strengthens the position of $BTC. Iran has already used BTC to settle the Hormuz passage fee and accepts cryptocurrency payments for contracts. This move by the U.S. is equivalent to acknowledging that digital assets can bypass the dollar system. Blockchain is transparent, and the so-called zero leakage is hard to truly achieve.
In the short term, sanctioned parties' demand to hoard BTC will rise; in the long term, it will continue to reinforce Bitcoin's logic as a non-sovereign asset. The current 81,000 is not the end. The more the U.S. weaponizes the dollar, the more obvious Bitcoin's alternative role becomes. I will share updates on subsequent sanctions progress and market reactions internally.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $SNDK is the "injured protagonist" in the storage sector today, but the mid-term view remains unchanged: wait for a full drop before buying. On 8/24, SNDK closed at 1,493.12, down 6.45% (previous close 1,596); pre-market on 8/25 at 1,492, still down 6.5%; early Korean stocks on 8/25 were even worse, KOSPI -3%, Samsung -8.7%, Hynix -3.41%. YTD still +521%, 52-week high 2,354, this drop is profit-taking, not a breakdown in logic. Citi remains bullish: NAND supply is tight, AI eSSD demand is explodBitcoin’s latest strength is getting plenty of attention, but the more interesting question is why the market is willing to keep bidding BTC higher. Rather than looking at the move as a simple momentum pump, I think there are several forces lining up around the same period in early and mid-September. Two dates are particularly important to watch: September 9 — Treasury-market activity September 15 — CLARITY Act expectations Neither date guarantees a Bitcoin move. But together, they create a windBTC has truly broken above 80000, reaching a high of 80908, up 23% in a week. But this surge relies on a short squeeze—bears were liquidated for 7.2 billion, not because everyone was rushing to buy. ETFs did bring in 1.9 billion, the highest in nearly 10 months, but on-chain data looks less optimistic: short-term holders (cost basis around 68700) have unlocked profits and transferred over 40,000 BTC to exchanges, marking the largest profit-taking this year. Those who held for over half a year fiToday's most surreal scene in the market: the crypto market makes a historic breakthrough, $BTC surges to 80,000, $SOL breaks 100, $ETH poised at 2,500; meanwhile, the US AI stocks all take a hit—NVDA down seven consecutive sessions, memory chips hammered two days in a row, Nasdaq down 0.76%.
Same world, polar opposites. Why? Liquidity.
The Treasury is ramping up buybacks by over $4 billion and the dollar weakens, money is searching for an outlet. Valuations in the US AI sector are high and funds are withdrawing, while the crypto market is smaller and more elastic, becoming the best destination for liquidity. ETFs act as transporters; BTC and ETH together attracted $2.6 billion last week.
Coinbase also dropped a bombshell today: tokenized stocks on the Base chain, with Apple and Nvidia tradable 24/7, and usable as DeFi collateral. The wall between TradFi and crypto is being torn down, and this narrative may continue to ferment.
The biggest variable this week: the Jackson Hole meeting (August 27-29), where Kevin Warsh will speak. Interest rate signals will directly determine how this divergence plays out. If dovish, crypto keeps flying; if hawkish, both crypto and US stocks get hit. Also, Nvidia's earnings report after market close on Wednesday, with NVDA's guidance influencing global AI chain pricing.
The trend is upward and holding steady, but be cautious about adding new positions at this level. Above 80,000 for BTC is all historical resistance zones, with frequent pullbacks. When others are most excited, buckle your seatbelt. Fundamental Research Report $AR / Arweave (DePIN) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: Arweave ($AR) overall score 53/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been realized.
Arweave (token $AR), DePIN sector. Focused on permanent storage and AO computing layer. Competitors include FIL, STORJ. Traditional computing power rental giants are AWS, CoreWeave, charging by GPU hours, with A100 monthly rent at $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding, suppliers require no centralized approval, idle GPUs become available supply. Customer unit price $50-$500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with paid usage traces. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding grade B, not representing long-term tech VC holdings, tech integration via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), no clear annual buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Arweave $3.00B, FIL undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. FDV: Arweave $4.20B, FIL undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. Annual revenue: Arweave $2.00M, FIL undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Arweave undisclosed, FIL undisclosed, STORJ undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Summary: fundamentals solid (score 53/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key focus later: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Judgments based on public data, not investment advice. Conclusions must be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearch #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit