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2. Yingwei Ke (002837) AI liquid cooling temperature control popular stock, stock price surged significantly. The penetration rate of liquid cooling in computing power data centers continues to rise, large-scale construction of AIDC drives growth in temperature control equipment orders, mid-year report shows volume increase in energy storage temperature control business, with substantial inflow of main funds. Industry demand is on the rise, but the influx of many new players intensifies competition, which will compress gross margins. Capital expenditure on computing power below expectations will directly impact performance; it is a highly elastic growth stock, and caution is needed for profit-taking after positive news is realized. 1. Jin Jian Grain Industry (600127) Leading company in the seed industry sector, hit the daily limit today. The El Niño climate risk has raised global expectations of reduced grain production, strengthening the main theme of food security policies, with capital flowing into the agricultural defense sector. The company mainly engages in grain and oil processing, with continuous expansion in the seed business. The seed industry is highly competitive, and favorable policies bring thematic premiums. Short-term performance is unlikely to explode; market trends are more driven by event catalysts. The sector rotates quickly, and there is a high risk of correction as the heat fades, making it unsuitable for chasing gains at high levels. 这位OG巨鲸在当前行情下增持300枚BTC多单 价值约2324.75万美元 • 当前总持仓规模：1.47亿美元 • 持仓均价：77089.90美元 • 浮盈：346.58万美元，收益率+7.05% • 清算价：44850.61美元，安全垫非常厚，距离现价差距巨大，短期几乎没有爆仓风险。 该巨鲸背景 • 历史持仓曾手握5万枚BTC，沉寂8年，部分BTC换仓ETH； • 交易节奏和美国政策、特朗普言论高度同步； • 经典战绩：在「10.11」大跌之前提前布空，获利接近1亿美元，属于市场认可度很高的老牌链上大资金。 怎么看待这次加仓 ✅ 偏积极信号 1. 老牌OG巨鲸在靠近8万关口选择继续加多，不是止盈跑路 对比前面余烬大规模止盈、麻吉黄立成高位调仓、Abraxas逆势加空，市场出现明显分化。 这位有成功预判历史的大资金 选择在高位继续加码多头 代表他认为本轮行情还没有结束 看好向上空间 2. 清算价极低，属于“长线博弈”仓位，不是短线赌一把 清算价4.4万，意味着即便BTC出现大幅回调 这个仓位也不会被强平 不是短期投机杠杆 是偏中期的押注 ⚠️ 需要理性看待的局限性 1. 只是单一巨鲸的Objective Analysis of Bitcoin at the $81,000 Level Recently, $BTC price has shown a rapid upward trend, with a weekly maximum increase of over 25%. After reaching around $81,000 intraday, it encountered significant resistance and a pullback at the 50-week moving average. Currently, the battle between bulls and bears at this key level is intensifying. From a technical statistical perspective, the 50-week moving average is a mid-term trend indicator with high reference value in Bitcoin's historical bull and bear cycles. Reviewing the past 13 complete bear market cycles, in 11 instances Bitcoin effectively held above the 50-week moving average, subsequently confirming the formation of a mid-term bottom. This indicator's mid-term trend direction has been validated with a high success rate in past cycles. Therefore, the 50-week moving average near $81,000 has become the core observation point for judging the nature of the current market. The driving structure behind this rapid price increase shows clear composite characteristics: besides the usual inflow of spot funds, a large short position liquidation in the short term contributed additional upward momentum. Nearly $3 billion in short positions were closed across the market, combined with short covering behavior, jointly pushing the price rapidly to the current resistance level in a very short time. This short-term rapid rise objectively results in insufficient turnover cycles below the key resistance level, with a relatively high proportion of floating positions in the holding structure, leading to some uncertainty in the sustainability of the subsequent market. The core observation dimension for the subsequent market is not whether the price can briefly break through $81,000, but whether sufficient chip exchange can be completed in the $80,000 range, ultimately stabilizing effectively at the $81,000-$82,000 range on a weekly candlestick level. If this condition is met, the overall market narrative will shift from "the sustainability of the bear market rebound" to "opportunity selection for pullback positioning," and the mid-term trend expectation will undergo a significant change. At the current stage, it is not advisable to conclude the start of a new bull market solely based on a single short-term price break above $80,000. The core verification signal for a trend reversal has never been the instant bullish candle at the moment of breaking resistance, but the sustained performance of forming effective support at that level after the breakout. This is also the key test for whether the current bullish trend can be ultimately confirmed. Risk Warning: This article is only an objective market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The volatility of the crypto asset market is significantly higher than that of traditional financial markets. Investors should make rational decisions based on their own risk tolerance. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 ZRO rose from 0.788 USDT on August 18 to 1.313 USDT now, an increase of over 66% in seven days. Many people's first reaction was that it was because LayerZero announced ATLAS. But the timeline doesn't match. ATLAS was announced on August 25. Before that, ZRO had already risen to 1.18. So the real first step was the token unlock on August 20. At that time, the market was worried that more than 20 million ZRO would be sold off at once, but the price did not fall; instead, it rose all the way to 1.159. This indicates that the market had already priced in too much selling pressure, and when the day actually came, the sell-off was not as much as expected, forcing the shorts to reassess their risk. ATLAS is the second phase of acceleration. ZRO will take on the Gas, staking, and governance functions of the Zero chain; 75% of the remaining fees will be used to buy back and burn ZRO. The market began to reinterpret it from a cross-chain governance token to a value capture asset shared by the entire ecosystem. What is even more noteworthy is the contract market. OKX's ZRO perpetual open interest increased by nearly 48% in one day, but the long-short account ratio is still only 0.67, with more short accounts. However, the daily RSI has now reached 77.3, and the price has hit the current high of 1.35–1.36 and the 200-day moving average. Next, it depends on whether it can truly hold above 1.36; if it falls below 1.20, then it will be a question of whether 1.10 can hold! $ZRO Because SpaceX has been stuck recently, I'm a bit bored but also don't dare to slack off, so I'm casually writing some market impressions, not advice, just sharing. The funding rate has been hovering around 0.01% these days; neither longs nor shorts want to pay the other side, indicating the market sentiment is very conflicted right now. But strangely, the perpetual contract open interest hasn't dropped much. I checked several major coins, and the OI remains high. This suggests many people aren't betting on direction but are instead hedging or doing range arbitrage; there aren't many funds truly willing to chase breakouts. I also glanced at on-chain data. The net BTC flow on exchanges is still mainly outflow, but the outflow intensity is clearly weaker than last month. It feels like those who needed to withdraw coins have mostly done so; what's left are short-term chips ready to move at any time. MVRV is hovering around 1, neither high nor low. Historically, this level is the most frustrating, neither going up nor down, and we can only wait for external events to trigger movement. I don't know when the position will be freed 😵$BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $ Bitcoin getting rejected around $81K is worth watching. But I'm not buying the $50K is next” narrative yet. $BTC pushed above $81K and ran directly into the 50-week moving average before falling back below $80K. Technically, that's a warning But one rejection doesn't automatically turn an uptrend into a bear market. The part I find more interesting is what's happening underneath the price Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded six consecutive days of inflows, with roughly $337M entering onLooking back at this rally, the rebound from around $60,000 to $80,000 marked a huge shift in market sentiment. A few months ago, many people actively bottom-fished in the $58,000-$62,000 range, believing "if it doesn't fall below $58,000, it's an opportunity." But when BTC climbed back above $80,000, the market began discussing targets of $100,000 or even higher. But here's a question worth pondering: if everyone thinks a bull market is coming, what is it still missing? In historical cycles, Bitcoin often doesn't end at the most pessimistic moment, but swaps are completed as sentiment shifts from skepticism to frenzy. Although the four-year cycle isn't an absolute pattern, investor psychology and capital flows can still have similar effects. Currently, BTC's rise does have new support: ETF funds are flowing back; Increased institutional configuration; Macro liquidity expectations have improved. Recently, BTC broke through $80,000, accompanied by renewed ETF inflows and a rebound in market risk appetite. But in the short term, it cannot be ignored: the rise is too fast; Market sentiment is heating up rapidly; Buying up funds is starting to increase. This doesn't mean BTC will definitely drop sharply, but rather: it's more likely that BTC will enter a phase of volatility and turnover in the future, rather than simply rising all the way. My view: For some time to come, BTC may continue to battle around high-level areas. Strong Script: Holding firm at $80,000, continuing to challenge for higher positions. Script adjustment: Pull back to key support, clear leverage from chasing highs, and seek new upward momentum. The market never lacks opportunities; what is lacking is the capital waiting for them.The most valuable aspect to review in this case is not which specific price point was "spot on," but rather the repeated switching between two sets of long and short plans on the same night. When the price approaches support, a rebound after a pullback is made; when the rebound reaches the resistance zone, a short position is sought again. If you only remember one direction, it's easy to give back the profits you just made in the next market move. @交易员刺客 broke down the short-term judgment of $BTC during the live broadcast into two layers: the mid-term still retains the previously bearish logic of short positions near 80,800, while the short-term focuses on the 30-minute level support near 78,000. He believes this round of rally has been running along the 30-minute Vegas channel for a long time. When the price returns to the channel and Fibonacci levels, and MACD and KDJ indicators align, you can first try a low-level rebound; but a rebound does not mean the trend has turned bullish again. If there is resistance above, the rhythm will still return to "rebound then short." This is also the most easily misunderstood point in the live broadcast title "buy on pullback." Buying on pullback is a conditional short-term trade, not an unconditional bottom-fishing, nor a complete overturn of the mid-term bearish judgment.刺客 first tried long positions around 78,000 during the session, then sought short positions again above 79,200. The core basis is the change in position, not a sudden reversal of sentiment. Trading direction can switch, but the premise is that each trade has independent entry, invalidation, and exit conditions. He repeatedly emphasized in position design "minimum base position, the first add-on position second, and the last add-on position the largest," and proposed the idea of a 1% base position, gradually increasing afterward, with a total position cap. The value of this framework is to avoid the first judgment$DOGE: The market hasn't fallen, but Dogecoin is the first to kneel In the early hours today, this wave of altcoin retreat was most typical in mainstream coins with DOGE: -2.9%, sliding down from above 9 cents. Meanwhile, BTC remains steady at 79000, up 25% this week without even a breather. $DOGE has risen 30% this week, but the problem lies here — its 30% gain is basically free. The high Beta characteristic of meme coins means they ride the market up but are the first to be thrown off during a retreat. Today, only 14 coins on the entire spot market are in the green; DOGE is not on the list. Even BIO and CRV dropped by over ten percent. The retreat spares no one, big or small. Looking back at fundamentals, it's the same old story: 5 billion new coins issued annually, no cap, starting with 5% inflation; no smart contracts, no ecosystem, the narrative relies entirely on Musk's Twitter and community memes. With a market cap of 14 billion USD, what you're buying is sentiment plus volatility, not cash flow. My judgment: The market wind hasn't stopped yet. As long as $BTC doesn't break down, DOGE will still follow the sentiment for some short-term moves. But the 9-cent integer level is essentially an emotional gate — whether it holds depends not on technicals but on whether bulls are willing to keep paying for memes. When the wind tightens, meme coins always fall first — that's an ironclad rule! #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $SOL reached 100.44, I checked the on-chain staking unlock window and validator flow; there is short-term unlocking pressure, and spot buyers haven't caught up with futures sentiment. The 100 round number is a psychological level; if it breaks through without volume, it's a bull trap. Short at 100x leverage, currently at 97.51, with an unrealized profit of 291.71%. Set stop loss to lock in cost, let the remaining position run profits. For those who missed it, don't chase the fake breakout at the round number. $BTC $ETH Since last week when Bassett announced a doubling of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases, I have indeed been speculating whether he and Trump’s Wash are playing a tacit game on rate hikes or forcing Trump’s Wash to compromise; whether it is just a helpless move for the moment or a preparation to completely change the U.S. economic and financial framework. Coincidentally, today Bassett and Wash’s mentor Druckenmiller came out to criticize Bassett, which is very noteworthy. From the motivation per$PUMP pulled up to 0.004856, I directly checked the on-chain position distribution. Old addresses are offloading and transferring out, new addresses are rushing to buy, chips are shifting from strong hands to weak hands. The name is PUMP, but on-chain it's already unloading. After confirmation, 50x short, now at 0.004527, floating profit 338.75%. Stop loss to lock in cost, let the remaining position run profits. If you didn't catch it, don't pretend you didn't see the whales/old addresses transferring out. $BTC $ETH 凌晨四点的K线图，我盯着DOGE的盘口发呆，脑子里全是三年前那场疯狂的回忆。 还记得2021年那个夏天吗，$DOGE 从玩笑变成了信仰，最高冲到0.74美元，整个市场都疯了。那时候谁要是说这是一场击鼓传花的游戏，大概会被群殴。可现在回头想，真正让我赚到钱的，不是那些喊单的帖子，而是我学会的仓位管理。 今天不谈主流币，我们聊聊狗系三兄弟：DOGE、SHIB、BABYDOGE。 DOGE是2013年的产物，出生时就是个笑话，谁也没想到它能活成meme币的图腾。它的护城河不是技术，而是品牌认知度和流动性，简单说就是：就算整个meme板块都凉了，DOGE大概率还是最后一个倒下的。SHIB是2020年的挑战者，打着"Doge Killer"的旗号出道，后来搞出了自己的生态，ShibaSwap、BONE、LEASH这些，2021年那波涨幅确实吓人，社区共识也够硬。BABYDOGE是2021年的追风者，市值小，弹性大，涨起来猛，跌起来更猛，更像是情绪的放大镜。 如果非要在这三个里面选一个，我的排序是：DOGE 大于 SHIB 大于 BABYDOGE。 不是因为DOGE会涨最多，而是当meme行情真正The U.S. economic actions against Iran are sending a signal worth noting: crypto assets have officially entered the global financial game. Recently, the U.S. expanded the scope of economic sanctions on Iran, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, shipping, and other sectors as key restriction targets, warning that parties involved in related economic activities may face secondary sanctions. The market's initial reaction is often: "Is crypto regulation a bearish signal?" In the short term, there is indeed pressure. The reason is that stablecoins and centralized trading platforms have compliance attributes, and related addresses, platforms, and fund flows may be affected by regulation. Previously, the U.S. Treasury also imposed sanctions on digital asset transaction channels related to Iran. But from a longer-term perspective, this actually validates BTC's core value: Why the world needs an asset that does not rely on the credit of a single country. So the impact of this on the crypto market needs to be viewed in two phases: Short term: Centralized stablecoins and trading platforms face higher compliance pressure. Long term: The greater the uncertainty in the global financial system, the stronger the discussion of BTC's value as a non-sovereign reserve asset. What really matters is not the price fluctuations caused by a single sanction. But whether digital assets will become part of the global financial system competition in the coming years. The value of BTC is gradually shifting from being a "speculative asset" to a discussion about "financial infrastructure." $BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 After $BTC surged past 80,000, market sentiment has clearly heated up again But from a short-term trading perspective, I actually wouldn’t chase this wave right now BTC is currently at the critical resistance zone of 81–83K. The previous rise was indeed supported by capital flows: ETF funds returning, a weakening dollar, and market expectations of improved liquidity all provided solid backing for the bulls So the question now isn’t "Does BTC still have capital?" but whether this level can continue to attract incremental funds After continuous rallies, short-term profit-taking has already increased, and chasing funds will start to diverge Only a volume breakout and stable hold above 81–83K can open up further space; if it hits resistance and pulls back, be prepared for a retracement So if you have a position, you can hold and observe; if you don’t, there’s no need to chase the last leg for a single bullish candle—waiting for a pullback confirmation might offer better risk-reward Looking at $ETH ETH is clearly lagging behind BTC by about half a beat, but that doesn’t mean a weak structure has formed. It previously touched around 2540. If BTC continues to stay strong, ETH still has a catch-up logic, with around 2600 being a key level I’m watching However, when it reaches near 2600, don’t just focus on upside potential; profit-taking pressure will also increase On the macro side, I’m still paying close attention to the "liquidity" theme Arthur Hayes repeatedly emphasizes the logic that as long as the liquidity environment continues to improve, risk assets still have stories to tell But note, this is more of a medium-term logic Short-term trading shouldn’t blindly chase highs just because of a bullish macro view Also, the recent performance of the US tech sector is worth watching If Nvidia continues to weaken and US tech stocks overall are under pressure, but BTC can still maintain strength, this signal is quite interesting—it suggests that internal capital support within the crypto market might be strengthening So my current judgment: BTC: 81–83K will decide if short-term space can continue to open ETH: Watch for catch-up near 2600, but also guard against profit-taking Strategy: Being bullish is fine, but don’t chase highs; waiting for pullback confirmation is more comfortable 80,000 has already been broken What’s truly worth watching next isn’t whether BTC can keep pushing, but: Can 80,000 turn from a "breakthrough level" into a real "new support"? #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $XRP 7 days +53% breaking $1.52: 13-month long bear ends, South Korean bank + ETF dual resonance $1.52, 7 days +53.1%, top in the entire network, up another +3% today. But such a sharp rise doesn’t come without cost; the faster the rise, the harsher the pullback. Breaking down three points: ETF weekly inflow of $1.55 billion, highest since February 2026. Money is chasing, not lacking buyers. Structurally, the 50-day/100-day/200-day EMA all cluster between $1.157-$1.350, forming a strong support zone. Buyers step in on pullbacks here; only a break below means the rebound fails. 13-month long bear ends. The $3.66 high in July 2025 was rejected four times in the past 13 months; this time it broke out with volume. Additionally, South Korean banks adopting Ripple for cross-border payments (Asia Express front page) validates the institutional narrative. RSI at 82 is already overbought. MACD is bullish, but price extension is intense, with a BTC correlation coefficient over 0.85. In other words, if BTC drops, XRP will definitely follow. This week’s BTC surge to $81K+ and $94K short squeeze triggered the move; the logic chain is BTC → XRP, not the other way around. So overall, it’s a combination of institutional support and technical extension. $1.80-$2.00 is a dense area of trapped positions; short-term chasing is not recommended. Wait for a pullback to $1.35-$1.40 to see if support holds. Holding mid-term is fine; worst case is a pullback to EMA50 before planning next moves. Iran and Oman join forces! A temporary passage in the Strait of Hormuz emerges! A joint statement by Iran and Oman reveals plans to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz and implement a joint mine-clearing project, with the ultimate goal of a permanent passage and a clear future management approach, while inviting Persian Gulf coastal countries to participate in dialogue. Key point: Iran chooses to cooperate with Oman to circumvent the US blockade, advancing a phased roadmap with clear steps, signaling a rare easing of geopolitical tensions. Impact on the crypto market: Slightly positive. If the new passage is realized, the extreme expectation of "blockade cutting off oil" will fade → oil prices fall → inflation cools → pressure on the Federal Reserve eases, macro liquidity improves, benefiting BTC/ETH. Core judgment: The opening of the temporary passage is not just a shipping route, but a breathing space for the crypto market. Although the framework is initially set and negotiations still have uncertainties, short-term sentiment recovery is expected. $BTC $ETH #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ Here's the situation: the most interesting aspect of Bitcoin's recent rally might not be the price itself, but how the shorts are exiting. Market observations on August 25 show that futures open interest is declining, funding rates are not showing obvious overheating, yet the price continues to rise. This is quite different from a typical leverage frenzy. Usually, the higher the market goes, the more capital chases contracts, open interest and funding rates both rise, and eventually longs start stepping on each other. But this time, some short positions were forced to close first, and the market's leverage is actually contracting. Price goes up, positions go down — the picture is somewhat counterintuitive. The key to the short squeeze is not that there are many shorts, but that shorts originally believed the price wouldn't continue rising. When the price breaks through key levels, stop-losses and forced liquidations turn these positions into passive buy orders, which in turn add fuel to the rally. This process doesn't mean the market is always healthy, but it explains why prices can sometimes rise quickly without particularly exaggerated funding rates. What's even more noteworthy is that a decline in open interest doesn't automatically mean risk has disappeared. It could indicate that high leverage is exiting, or that traders are temporarily unwilling to chase prices further. What we need to watch next is whether spot demand can sustain this rally, and whether funding rates will suddenly spiral out of control when new positions re-enter the market. My own judgment is that this rally currently looks more like "shorts being cleaned out, longs haven't completely lost discipline yet," rather than a last frenzy after everyone rushes in. The former can continue, the latter usually calls for caution. So, when Bitcoin is rising, don't just focus on In the last four hours, only Coinbase has positive inflows; other platforms, especially Binance, have finally started to see negative inflows for Bitcoin. It seems that at this price level, the zero-cost ancient whales in Asia and the US institutions have diverged. Never overestimate how powerful US institutions are; in fact, the coins they hold are less than 10% of the total supply. They are just the currently active players but do not control the pricing power. If it weren't for the Chen Zhi incident, I believe Bitcoin could have risen to 200,000 or even higher. The problem is, if the zero-cost ancient whales decide to unload on a large scale, the US institutions, who are slow to react, once break below their cost line, can only cut losses, causing a spiral decline. Such events have become common from last October until today. I believe that unless the Bitcoin price is low enough for Chinese private capital to acquire enough chips at a sufficiently low price, I don't think US institutions alone can withstand the selling pressure A CLEAR LIQUIDITY ROTATION IS PLAYING OUT BETWEEN CRYPTO AND US STOCKS TODAY. The S&P 500 is up 0.26%, adding $240 billion to US stocks. Bitcoin is down 3% from its day high, wiping out roughly $48 billion from its market cap. Bitcoin started dumping at almost the exact moment US stock futures bottomed and reversed higher. $BTC #StrategyBuildsCash #BTC80KHoldOrFold Shorting at this position indeed has a high cost-performance ratio, but I must be clear about what I'm actually betting on. First, let me say where I don't bet—I don't bet that ETH or BTC will "crash." What I bet on is the correction after short-term extreme sentiment. The data I see is as follows: 1. $BTC long-short ratio is 600%, which, in my past trading experience, belongs to the "danger zone" red line. Of course, I know there are hedging positions inside, but there are definitely many naked longs. 2. At the $BTC 83k level, when I drew the lines, I found it just pressing against two long-term moving averages on the weekly chart. The news was released exactly at this node with positive signals, the timing is too perfect. I don't believe in coincidences; I tend to think this is to cause short sellers to liquidate while giving longs the illusion of a "breakthrough," facilitating high-level position rotation. 3. I observed $ETH's position structure myself—contracts rising, fees soaring, but spot not that strong. This indicates a leverage-driven market, and the retreat is often much faster than the rise. Finally, the phrase I keep telling myself is: when consensus is bullish, the market's tolerance for error is lowest. I don't need to predict the top; I just need to wait for the market to tell me "this is a barrier," then get on board, set stop losses properly, and leave the rest to probability. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 BTC surged about 24% last week, but Strategy didn't buy a single one. What's even more unusual is that it sold about $2 billion worth of MSTR stock when the market picked up, but didn't immediately convert the money into BTC. Instead, it first built a $1.59 billion cash pool. This doesn't mean Saylor suddenly turned bearish on BTC.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls ##StrategyBuildsCash 这场最狠的冲突，是看多闪迪、看空$ZEC 的两套逻辑可以同时成立，账户却依然被多空两边收割。价格先把闪迪多单打掉，又让ZEC空单承受快速拉升，真正击穿账户的不是单一方向，而是高杠杆、不断补仓和流动性错配叠在一起。 @天才少女秋秋 在直播中直接复盘，自己已经出现“闪迪多单亏、ZEC空单也亏”的局面，ZEC空单一度带走600多U。她对两个标的的中期判断并没有立刻反转：闪迪仍偏多，ZEC仍偏空；但市场用最残酷的方式说明，方向判断不能替代仓位管理。先被强平的人，就算最后看对，也没有资格等到逻辑兑现。 闪迪这边的问题，是把长期看多与短线入场混成了一件事。她认为闪迪在深跌后仍有反弹空间，盘中也多次表达偏多态度，但美股开盘后几十点来回扫，换手和波动明显放大。这样的盘面里，低位看多并不等于任何价格都适合追多，更不等于可以用高杠杆承受正常回撤。若开盘第一根K线没有给出方向，最合理的动作应是等结构稳定，而不是让预期先于价格。 ZEC则是另一种陷阱。秋秋始终把它视为高估值、高波动的山寨币，认为900附近多次受阻后，继续上冲的空间需要更强增量资金支持。这个偏空逻辑有依据，却不能直接推导出“现在就能重仓空Gold has also been rising recently, following the same logic as $BTC. The market is trading on the narrative of "dollar depreciation/U.S. fiscal credit discount." The biggest contradiction is now very clear: the Treasury dislikes the high long-term interest rates and wants to push them down; but the Fed is concerned about high inflation and is currently unwilling to cooperate, even keeping the possibility of rate hikes. So everyone is actually watching what Warsh will do next. His actions will determine the market's major direction going forward. If the Fed starts cooperating with the Treasury, stops raising rates, or even shifts to cutting rates while continuing to suppress long-term interest rates, it could truly be a super bull market for hard assets like gold and BTC. Conversely, if the Fed remains hawkish or even raises rates, leaving the Treasury to solely support long-term debt, then this logic is not fully closed, and BTC is more likely to experience volatility or even a pullback first. So, everyone should understand one thing: the real big market move won't start just because the Treasury acts, but when the Fed also begins to cooperate. Keep an eye on this news at all times. Currently, with no good or bad news, the market might just be oscillating between 7.7 and 7.9.Traditional asset management institutions have moved U.S. tech stock portfolios onto smart contracts, quietly flattening the cross-market asset flow boundaries on-chain. Tokenized U.S. tech stock portfolios focused on AI and technology themes have begun to support automatic rebalancing, compressing the distribution cycle of traditional ETF strategies to within a few days. The demand for allocation in U.S. tech assets is extending outward, driving on-chain capital to seek portfolio tools directly linked to underlying equity. When smart contracts take over the asset rebalancing logic, the U.S. stock risk exposure and on-chain liquidity establish an instant transmission channel. If the regulatory environment can provide clear space for tokenized securities, the integration of traditional equity assets and on-chain asset management will rapidly absorb more incremental off-chain capital. If compliance boundaries continue to tighten, the liquidity of on-chain thematic portfolios will be forced to retreat to restricted specific areas. Stagnation in on-chain portfolio trading activity or long-term underlying discounts will directly falsify the expansion logic of traditional asset management on-chain. In the near future, the regulatory agencies' stance on tokenized equity instruments will be the core variable to test whether this model can scale and be implemented. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径In August 2026, after months of silence, the cryptocurrency market experienced an unexpected strong rebound. Bitcoin $BTC suddenly surged after nearly two months of oscillating between $60,000 and $66,000, breaking through the $80,000 mark on August 25, reaching a three-month high. Ethereum $ETH performed even more impressively, climbing strongly from under $1,900 in mid-August to over $2,520, with a seven-day increase of 31.3%. Is this rebound the start of a new bull market, or just a short-lived pulse driven by short-covering? This article will analyze from three dimensions: driving factors, technical signals, and market divergences. 1. Triple Catalysts: Treasury Repo, Weakening Dollar, and Regulatory Expectations This rally was not driven by a single piece of news but by multiple positive factors resonating together. The primary catalyst came from the U.S. Treasury's bond repurchase operations. The Treasury announced increasing the long-term bond repurchase scale from about $2 billion each time to "no less than $4 billion," which the market interpreted as the U.S. government beginning to intervene more actively in the bond market to suppress long-term interest rate rises. After the announcement, long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened simultaneously, and both gold and Bitcoin rose, making "currency depreciation trades" a market focus again. Macro analyst Lyn Alden told CNBC that almost all indicators show the bottom has been reached, and with the Treasury and Federal Reserve shifting to financial repression policies, the bull market has returned. The second force came from continuous inflows into spot ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs in four$BTC entered a high-level consolidation after breaking through 80,000. Recently, ETF funds have flowed back, combined with the weakening dollar and liquidity expectations brought by U.S. Treasury repurchases, the underlying bullish logic remains intact for now. However, this round of rally has been too fast, and short-term chip divergence has clearly widened. The focus going forward is not guessing the top but seeing if the breakout platform can turn into support; a low-volume pullback is healthy digestion, but a high-volume drop back to the platform requires caution against profit-taking and leveraged funds triggering a sell-off. $ETH still shows stronger elasticity than BTC in this round, with funds continuing to spread to high Beta assets, and ETH has maintained strong performance recently. However, after continuous catch-up gains, chips are starting to crowd, making the current position more suitable for waiting for a pullback confirmation. As long as it stabilizes on low volume, the trend remains bullish; if BTC weakens, ETH’s retracement is usually further amplified. $OKB continues to focus on the X Layer ecosystem and box breakout; $QQQ is mainly waiting for Nvidia’s earnings report and PCE guidance; $SNDK’s high valuation still needs digestion; $SKHYNIX’s HBM demand supports the mid-term logic, but short-term chip loosening due to events must be guarded against. Overall idea: The big direction is bullish, but after a sharp rise, it is better to wait for a pullback rather than blindly chase highs. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 As of the US market close on August 25, 2026, the entire crypto market is sending an increasingly clear signal: this round of the market should no longer be understood as a "bear market rebound," but rather as the "first trend expansion after the start of a new bull market." My core judgment is summarized in one sentence: The bull market has already begun. All normal-level pullbacks at the current position are essentially bull retracements, not the start of a new bear market. Many people's biggest mistake is to wait until the market has digested all negative news, all technical indicators confirm, and everyone believes in the bull market before admitting that the bull market has arrived. But the real big opportunities in financial markets are always born during the stage when "most people are still doubtful." That stage is now. 1. BTC: $80,000 is not the end, but the starting point of market revaluation. BTC in this round quickly surged from around $60,000, once breaking through $80,000, setting a three-month high; the cumulative increase in August is close to 28%, with a weekly increase exceeding 20% at one point. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF recorded nearly $2 billion in net inflows last week, with institutional funds clearly returning. These two signals together are very significant. Price increases are not scary; only increases driven by contract leverage without spot buying are scary. This round indeed saw large-scale short squeezes, but after shorts were liquidated, BTC did not quickly fall back to the starting point; instead, it maintained a high-level oscillation around $77,000–$80,000. This indicates the market#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ The U.S. has initiated economic isolation against Iran, yet we observe little change in $CL $BZ $BTC. Despite sanctions on Iran, oil prices have not surged significantly; instead, they have slightly declined. The core reason is that the market is selling the facts. First, the U.S.-Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have lasted nearly half a year, and oil prices have already risen over 50%. When the event materialized, all the positive factors were priced in, triggering profit-taking. Second, there is widespread skepticism about the actual effectiveness of this crackdown. Over 80% of Iran's exports rely on Chinese buyers; as long as this channel is not completely cut off, the sanctions' impact will be limited. Moreover, Iran has been under U.S. sanctions for more than 40 years without substantial effect, so the impact should be limited 🤔. However, 🤔 Basent himself admitted he does not want to "blow up the global financial system," leaving some room. From a certain perspective, the situation seems to have cooled down, shifting from military confrontation to economic restrictions. The market believes the worst moment of supply disruption may be over. It is worth noting that if "secondary sanctions" are involved later, oil prices could still rebound 🤔. Be aware of the risks! @OKX星球 Big Brother Maji went all in again, and this time even more aggressively. On-chain data publicly shows he holds $129 million in long positions, with an overall leverage of 12x, all strictly long. The main bets are on ETH, paired with BTC, HYPE, and PUMP—grabbing both large and small coins, firmly refusing to short. Position details: 1,225 BTC longs (entry price 77660, unrealized loss 1.08 million, liquidation price 71840), 19,000 ETH longs (entry price 2337, unrealized profit 1.26 million, liquidation price 2083), 256,500 HYPE longs (entry price 79.5, unrealized loss 470,000, liquidation price 53.2). In the previous market wave, he rolled $150,000 into $11.15 million, significantly narrowing losses over the past ten months. But high leverage fears intraday spikes—when the market dips, the whole network sweats for him; when it rallies, everyone cheers for him. Old fans know: a big surge makes him a crypto war god, a crash means he might sell NFTs anytime to top up margin. Watching the whale’s heavy positions is entertaining, but ordinary people shouldn’t imitate—12x leverage means no matter how big the position, it can’t withstand a sharp crash.1、今晚20:30，PCE和GDP一起交卷 美国7月核心PCE预计环比上涨0.2%，前值是0.1%，同比预期仍为3.3%；二季度GDP第二次估值预计维持1.5%。 币圈最怕的不是单个数字难看，是通胀偏高、经济又被上修，这种组合很容易把加息预期重新抬起来。BTC白天怎么晃都不算最后答案，20:30以后再看。 2、杰克逊霍尔今天开场，后面还有第二轮波动 今年的研讨会从8月26日持续到28日。今晚的数据先定价，随后市场还要等美联储官员说话，所以一根K线很难把方向讲完。 数据利好但讲话偏鹰，或者数据一般、讲话又松一点，都可能把盘面再拧一次。 3、ETF的钱回来了，而且不是小打小闹 比特币和以太坊现货ETF上周合计吸金约26亿美元，是去年10月以来最强的一周，成交量也明显放大。 这个数字能解释为什么BTC从6万多一路拉到8万附近，但它也留下一个问题：ETF流入如果放慢，现货接力还能不能跟上？这一条比喊牛市更实在。ETF资金数据 4、微策略这周没买币，先把现金放厚了 Strategy出售了约20亿美元MSTR股票，却没有继续买BTC。资金里有3亿美元被放进美元储备，另有约15.9亿美元单独放进“U$BTC ETF capital inflow, weakening US dollar, and improved liquidity remain the underlying support for bulls, but after consecutive sharp rises, the divergence in high-level chips has clearly widened. In the short term, volatility is not feared; what is feared is a volume-driven drop back to the breakout platform; as long as the pullback is on low volume and the support is normal, it can still be understood as strong turnover, with the key focus later on whether volume can break out again. $ETH capital continues to spread to high-elasticity assets, and ETF demand also provides medium-term support. However, the previous catch-up gains were substantial, and short-term chips are already crowded. As long as the pullback is on low volume and the trend structure holds, it remains bullish; once BTC weakens, ETH's retracement elasticity is usually greater, so the cost-effectiveness of chasing gains now is declining. $BICO The news of new trading pairs on Upbit has basically entered the realization phase; the current core issue is not price movement but whether trading volume can be maintained. Only after consolidation on low volume and a renewed volume breakout is there a chance to start a second phase of the market; if it falls back to the starting area, it indicates that the new liquidity has not yet converted into sustained buying. $OKB Continue to focus on the X Layer ecosystem and scarce supply; breaking through the box must be accompanied by volume; $QQQ mainly awaits Nvidia's earnings report and PCE guidance; $SNDK AI storage logic remains, but high valuation needs digestion; $SKHYNIX HBM demand remains strong, but the salary event increases short-term disturbances. Overall, the general direction remains bullish, but now it is more suitable to wait for pullback confirmation rather than chasing upon seeing a rise. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Evening Brief Summary The overall market in the evening showed no major unexpected positive news, with macro conditions remaining stable, the US dollar slightly weak, and US stock sentiment warming up. The current round of bullish factors has been basically fully digested, ETF inflows have slowed, profit-taking among high-level bulls has increased, and market divergence between bulls and bears has widened. Regulation remains in the expected phase with no substantive implementation news, and geopolitical risk aversion sentiment has slightly cooled. The market has entered a high-level consolidation and shakeout mode, lacking momentum for further violent rallies, with short-term volatility intensifying. Treat it as a range-bound market, avoid chasing highs, and strictly control positions. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $ETH keeps pushing higher, but the derivatives market is starting to flash a warning sign: long positioning is becoming increasingly crowded. Open interest is expanding alongside the price, while ETH’s funding rate has now moved above $BTC . That doesn’t automatically mean the market is bearish, but it does raise an important question: Is this rally being supported by genuine spot demand, or are traders simply using more leverage to chase the move higher? The next correction could provide the a[ Abraxas Capital ] Did MM really "lose $113 million" on short positions at Hyperliquid? Surface data shows that two Hyperliquid accounts labeled Abraxas Capital hold short positions worth $729.3 million, with a cumulative unrealized loss of $113 million, distributed as follows: • $ETH: -$37.26 million • $BTC: -$35.75 million • $HYPE: -$27.96 million (and smaller shorts on $PUMP, $FARTCOIN, $ASTER, etc.) But on-chain reality (source: TradingBeats) shows Abraxas Capital holds spot assets worth up to $815 million, making these shorts purely delta-neutral hedges: 🔹 $BTC: holding 3,161 spot vs. 2,469 shorts ➡️ net long 691.9 $BTC 🔹 $ETH: holding about 150,700 staked ETH vs. 87,600 shorts ➡️ net long 63,100 $ETH 🔹 $HYPE: nominal short loss of -$27.96 million is fully offset by +$11.24 million in funding payments and +$21.74 million in realized spot gains ➡️ net profit: +$5.02 million So far, having collected a total of +$16.72 million in funding fees, Abraxas is not severely hit; they are executing a brilliant example of institutional-level yield arbitrage. #Hyperliquid这场最狠的判断，是$BTC 突破8万并不代表可以闭眼追多。上涨把空头止损集中打掉以后，真正要看的不是情绪有多热，而是8万能否重新站稳、8万3能否继续突破；如果反抽收不回整数关口，这波急拉反而可能转成高位震荡和回调。 @梁老表 认为，BTC这次从7.6万附近快速冲过8万，短线带有明显的“空杀空”特征。市场里卖盘和流动性不足，叠加空头止损被连续触发，才让价格在缺少充分换手的情况下突然加速。这样的上涨很强，但结构并不扎实：拉得越急，后面一旦资金撤出，回踩也可能比常规行情更猛烈。 他给出的第一道观察区间是79,500—80,000。价格跌下来以后，如果反抽仍收不回8万，说明短线多头动能开始衰减，行情更容易继续寻找下方支撑；如果8万能重新站稳，空头就不能因为“已经涨多了”而硬扛，下一道更重要的阻力要看8万至8万3一带，尤其是前高附近能否被有效消化。 这也是他为什么反复强调，当前位置不适合盲目追多。6万、6万3甚至7万以下不敢配置现货，到了8万上方才被情绪推着买，等于主动把持仓成本抬到阻力区。市场最容易收割的，正是恐慌时比别人更恐慌、上涨后又比别人更贪婪的人。错过低位不是必须在高位补票的理由$xMU Micron $931.75 rebounds 2.34%: Tries repeatedly at the trillion-dollar market cap edge, but certainty is lower than SanDisk/Hynix Market action: Tug-of-war at the trillion-dollar edge. Micron closed today at $931.75, +2.34%; but the big bearish candle on 8/24 with -5.83%, along with a 5.74% intraday drop, pushed the market cap back down to $1.052 trillion. YTD +231%, down 27% from the $1,255 peak. Following the same rhythm as SanDisk/Hynix, yesterday it was dragged down 7 points by Samsung, today it rebounded over 2 points, a V-shaped but asymmetric move. Why it fell the hardest: Lowest HBM market share, lacks exclusive moat. Among Samsung, Hynix, and Micron, SanDisk has $93.9 billion NBM orders locking capacity, Hynix has HBM4E samples sent early plus a 40 trillion buyback cancellation. Micron’s position is relatively weak, with only 20% HBM market share; although HBM4 started mass production in Q1, HBM4E samples won’t be sent until the second half of the year, and long-term contracts disclosed publicly are far fewer than the other two. In risk events, capital prioritizes selling "the least differentiated one," the logic is straightforward. Catalyst schedule: 8/27 is the touchstone, 12/9 is the shareholder return date. After market close on 8/26 is NVDA earnings; NVDA’s capex guidance and Rubin’s schedule directly determine HBM order visibility; 8/29 PCE; 9/29 Micron FQ4 earnings; 12/9 Micron announces plans to expand shareholder returns, which is the real catalyst. In between, Micron is likely to maintain high volatility and oscillation.A month ago, this account had only 500,000 left; now it has steadily reached 800,000. No leveraged contracts applied, purely holding with patience in spot holdings, with only three sources of profit: Bitcoin, OKB, and HYPE. At first glance, it seems luck, but on closer inspection, it's discipline. Many people think a comeback requires heavy bets and going all-in, but this curve tells us another path: what truly makes the account speak is not excitement, but certainty. So-called high-certainty trading is, at its core, only trading when the win rate clearly favors you, choosing not to move the rest of the time. This kind of restraint is rarer than any technical indicator. Back to the market itself, BTC's trend has always been the core anchor of this round of recovery. Behind the 800,000 figure is Bitcoin's valuation boost after repeated consolidation in key ranges, as well as the resonance of the revival of ecosystem news from OKB and HYPE. There was no earth-shattering surge, but a clean and sharp slope—that's the charm of spot positioning—it allows time to be on your side. For ordinary participants, the most valuable lesson from this experience isn't copying homework, but understanding the weight of 'accumulating principal.' From last year to this year, market sentiment has fluctuated repeatedly. Those who can hold onto spot stocks are often not the most mentally strong, but rather those who adjust their positions early enough to sleep. When your principal isn't thick enough, any fluctuation can become a psychological burden, leading to misoperations. I've always felt that in the end, trading is all about expectation management. High-certainty opportunities don't come every day; more often, the market fluctuates amid noise. Rather thanThis is the strongest week of BTC and ETH ETF buying after the major crash in October/November 2025. BTC ETFs had a net purchase of 26,700 coins over seven days, equivalent to 8.5 times the newly mined amount that week, approximately $2.1 billion; ETH ETFs bought 284,000 coins, about $710 million. Together, that's about $2.8 billion. The money basically came from BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA. In this cycle, institutions are a key variable. The bull market hasn't reached previous highs (only about doubled after the halving); the bear market so far hasn't fallen as much as before (the deepest drop was about half, not the previous cycle's repeated halving).After BTC surged to test the $80,000 mark and quickly pulled back, the current price is hovering around 78,900. The market has entered a typical phase of "strong institutional capital support, technical overbought conditions, and intense long-short battles." 1. Underlying support for this round of rally: massive inflow of ETF funds Last week, the combined net inflow of US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs reached $2.6 billion, hitting a nearly 10-month high. Among them, the BTC spot ETF net inflow was $1.92 billion, making institutional capital the most important underpinning force for this rally. With the boost from incremental ETF funds, the 76,000–78,000 range has strong absorption strength, which is the core logic behind the market’s medium- to long-term bullish stance remaining intact. Institutional spot buying, unlike contract market short squeezes and liquidations, represents real incremental capital and provides bottom support for the price. However, it should be clear that ETF inflows can only provide bottom support and cannot guarantee a sustained one-sided price surge. Part of the rally comes from passive buying triggered by short liquidations, which is unsustainable. Once short positions are cleared, the upward momentum will weaken. 2. Short-term risk signals: overbought + high contract positions, shakeout imminent Although the major trend remains bullish, short-term risk signals are very clear: 1. The daily RSI has entered the overbought zone, with the indicator surging above 80. Short-term upward momentum is overextended, and historically this zone often accompanies pullbacks and shakeouts, with significant profit-taking pressure. 2. The total open interest of contracts across the network is at a high level, with a large accumulation of long positions at elevated prices. Even a slight price pullback can easily trigger a chain of liquidations, amplifying downward volatility—commonly referred to in the community as a "short-term shakeout." This creates a contradiction: large-scale institutions are bullish, but the short-term technicals are severely overheated. The 78,000–80,000 range is a key resistance zone, with multiple attempts to test the 80,000 mark encountering selling pressure. Chasing longs here has a poor risk-reward ratio; conversely, shorting against the trend means fighting against continuous institutional buying via ETFs, risking being caught in stop runs and losing on both sides. 3. Market trading approach: don’t guess tops or bottoms, wait for confirmation signals 1) Contract strategy (leveraged trading) • Do not chase longs in the 78k–80k range; avoid blindly opening longs at highs and do not stubbornly hold against the trend with shorts. • Wait for a stable pullback signal around 76,000–76,500: a 4-hour candle with a lower wick plus shrinking volume before considering light long positions. Set stop loss at 74,800, with targets at 79,000–80,000. • Strict risk control: keep contract leverage under 3x, single trade loss within 2% of principal, avoid emotional averaging down, and do not trade based on directional guesses. 2) Spot strategy Do not rush to go all-in on spot; use a staggered order placement strategy with three layers at 76,000 / 74,000 / 72,000. Add positions gradually on pullbacks to avoid full exposure and large drawdowns. 3) Two key trend inflection points Bullish confirmation: daily volume surge and stable hold above 80,000, with pullbacks not breaking below. This would open upward space with targets at 82,000–84,000. Bearish signal: daily close decisively below 75,000, with weak rebounds failing to recover. This would signal a shift to a correction phase, targeting around 70,000. In the intermediate range, prefer to observe and avoid frequent trading. 4. Key variables to monitor going forward 1. Sustainability of ETF inflows: continued large net inflows will compress correction space; outflows will intensify correction pressure. 2. Fed rate cut expectations and US stock risk asset volatility will directly impact overall crypto market sentiment. 3. Contract liquidation data: large long positions at highs can trigger chain liquidations causing sharp short-term spikes. Currently, BTC’s bullish foundation remains, but the short-term is overheated. Institutional ETFs provide a safety cushion at the bottom, but technical overbought conditions plus high contract positions mean a high probability of short-term volatile shakeouts. Do not let the rapid rally drive emotions; avoid chasing highs at elevated levels. Long positions should wait for stable pullback signals; shorts should wait for breakdown confirmation. Minimize trading during choppy markets, and always prioritize risk control over profits. $BTC $ETH $SOL Bitwise's launch of an automated US stock-themed portfolio on-chain accelerates the convergence of traditional US stocks and on-chain liquidity. The current core tension lies in the pricing tug-of-war between the high macro valuation of the US tech sector and the unclear regulatory compliance boundaries. Bitwise, based on Coinbase's tokenized US stock assembly AI and tech-themed portfolio launched on Base, directly maps traditional US equity to smart contracts. In terms of cross-market linkage, interest rate trends and the volatility of US tech stocks form the primary driving force for this type of on-chain asset, while the risk-return characteristics of the US large-cap market directly determine the basis spread of the on-chain mapped assets. The second driving force comes from the risk-hedging diversion formed by the US dollar index and gold. When US dollar liquidity tightens or interest rates remain high, capital tends to hold traditional assets such as US Treasuries or gold, compressing the cross-market arbitrage space for on-chain tokenized US stock portfolios. The third driving force is the deployment efficiency advantage brought by smart contract automatic rebalancing. The bullish scenario trigger conditions are the warming of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and the expansion of US tech stock valuations, along with clear signals from the SEC regarding the compliance framework for tokenized securities. At this time, risk appetite for US equity assets spills over on-chain, and automated rebalancing contracts will attract concentrated inflows of on-chain capital seeking cross-market US stock exposure. This scenario requires continuous observation of the matching degree between the decline in US Treasury yields and the trading volume of the US tech sector. If the compliance path is clarified, liquidity expansion of on-chain mini-ETF products will directly amplify the premium potential of some long-tail US stock targets. The bearish scenario trigger conditions are the SEC strengthening regulatory restrictions on unregistered tokenized securities, while US tech stocks fall into a correction amid sustained high interest rates. At this time, gold and US dollar assets absorb safe-haven funds, and on-chain tokenized stock portfolios will face pressure from amplified liquidity discounts. This scenario requires close monitoring of the holding redemption rate of tokenized US stock portfolios in non-US markets. If regulatory policies clearly block compliance channels, product growth will be limited to niche markets and unable to substitute traditional asset management channels. The boundary for scenario invalidation is when the US dollar index falls sharply but the trading volume of on-chain tokenized US stock portfolios shows no response, or when the US tech large-cap market surges but the on-chain automated portfolio experiences large net redemptions. The most important observation variables in the next 7 days are the volatility index of the US tech sector under changes in Federal Reserve rate policy expectations, and the SEC's statement rhythm regarding the compliance boundaries of tokenized US stocks. #阿里配售获超额认购，高管增持能否稳住信心？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #Strategy's additional issuance expands cash reserves, BTC allocation rhythm under focus Another key market variable has emerged. Strategy has changed its old financing model of going all in on BTC, prioritizing stock issuance to expand cash reserves instead of using all raised funds to buy Bitcoin. This will directly change market expectations. Let's discuss the actual impact on BTC and ETH. 1. On $BTC In the past, Strategy was the most important marginal institutional buyer of BTC, with a fundraising flywheel: issuing shares → raising money → scooping up BTC in the secondary market, continuously providing incremental buying power for the market 36Kr. Short term: sentiment-wise, this is somewhat bearish. With less continuous buying support, BTC will rely more on spot ETF inflows, increasing volatility and weakening the momentum for upward attacks at high levels. Medium term: there has been no large-scale selling of BTC holdings yet, only a halt in new purchases. The existing large amount of chips remains, so no direct crash will be triggered; however, it is important to monitor the follow-up. If cash flow pressure intensifies, selling BTC cannot be ruled out, which would create substantial selling pressure. 2. On $ETH Strategy itself barely allocates to ETH, so it won't directly bring capital inflows to ETH, but it is an indirect transmission logic. As BTC is the overall market leader, once institutional buying weakens, the overall market risk appetite will be suppressed. ETH is unlikely to have an independent unilateral upward trend and will most likely follow BTC in linked fluctuations. Oman's Foreign Minister's Visit to Iran Yields Preliminary Results; Iran-Oman Joint Statement — Plans to Establish a Temporary Maritime Passage in the Strait of Hormuz. There are several key points to note in this news. The "proposed establishment" and "temporary" passages do not mean the strait is fully open at this stage, but rather downgrade treatment under the conditions of the Strait of Hormuz for crude oil being open. #美启动对伊经济孤立, why have oil prices fallen? Simply put, Iran and Oman first establish a passage to try navigation, and be aware of the mines. During this process, it depends on the U.S. attitude. If the U.S. seeks peace and the route operates normally, the new route will gradually mature and become the main future route for the final Iran-Oman Strait agreement. All prerequisites are the U.S. facing the route and Iran's stance. If the U.S. continues economic sanctions and military pressure on Iran, Iran can continue to cancel the route, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. Additionally, It is basically foreseeable that before the U.S.-Iran fully reaches an agreement, cargo ships from Israel and Iran considered hostile countries will likely not be allowed to operate. Iran will definitely target this. In contrast, large oil tankers from Iraq and Qatar are likely to be the first to operate and complete loading operations. Iran's purpose is to ease the international diplomatic and political pressure caused by the long-term closed strait, and on the other hand, to pass the negotiation easing ball to the U.S. If the U.S. does not respond and continues hostility with Iran, international pressure will once again shift toward the U.S. Overall, Iran has repeatedly sent optimistic signals. Next, let's see how the U.S. and Trump responds to himThe evolution speed of on-chain asset management is much faster than most people expect. Crypto ETF issuer Bitwise has launched a series of automated portfolios based on Coinbase tokenized stocks, focusing on three thematic tracks: AI, robotics, and technology. Users can directly buy strategy portfolios composed of multiple US stocks on-chain, with underlying holdings automatically rebalanced according to preset rules. This matter has three layers of significance. Asset layer: Coinbase previously launched tokenized US stocks on Base, but the appeal of single tokenized stocks is limited since traditional brokers can also buy them with better liquidity. What Bitwise does is assemble single stocks into thematic strategies, essentially building "mini ETFs" on-chain—without the heavy approval process of traditional ETFs, with strategy creation, execution, and rebalancing all completed by smart contracts. Distribution layer: Traditional asset management takes months from concept to launch for a thematic strategy, while on-chain may only take a few days. This "strategy-as-deployment" speed advantage will give on-chain asset management a dimensionality reduction advantage over traditional asset management in long-tail themes like AI computing power supply chains and space economy. Narrative layer: When traditional financial players like Bitwise, managing tens of billions in ETF assets, start to build native asset management products on-chain, the signal is very clear: tokenization is not a future narrative waiting to happen, but a product iteration that is currently unfolding. The most critical subsequent variable is regulation. If the SEC clarifies the compliance framework for tokenized securities, on-chain asset management will explode far beyond expectations; otherwise, it will be restricted to niche non-US markets. Brothers, it's $80,000! Bitcoin has finally stood above $80,000 again after three months. There are three core drivers: First, the U.S. Treasury is effectively easing. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the long-term bond repurchase scale will increase from 2 billion to "no less than 4 billion," causing long-term bond yields to fall. The dollar weakened, reactivating the "currency devaluation trade." Second, shorts are being crushed. In the past 24 hours, 94,000 people worldwide were liquidated, totaling $635 million. Last week, the entire market's short liquidations reached about $7.2 billion, a record high. As long as shorts don't die, the rally continues. Third, institutions are frantically buying. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in one week, the highest since last October. There have been net inflows for six consecutive trading days. The Fear & Greed Index has surged to 83, entering the "Extreme Greed" zone. The RSI has also reached the overbought area. Key levels: The ultimate resistance is at $83,000 above. A valid breakout could open the $85,000-$90,000 range. The core support lies between $74,000 and $76,000 below. This wave is mainly driven by short squeezes; whether spot demand can take over is the key. There is fierce competition between bulls and bears at the $80,000 level, so be cautious chasing highs. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Why can we be sure that this wave of rally marks the end of the bear market? Besides what many bloggers mention about reclaiming the average cost of short-term holders, this rally has another key signal that distinguishes it from previous bear market rebounds: the demand for spot and perpetual contracts has turned positive simultaneously for the first time. Look at the chart, demand is broken down into four states. Red means both spot and contracts are shrinking, which has been the norm for most of the past half year. Purple means contracts are expanding but spot is shrinking; this is purely leverage-driven, and once the shorts are squeezed out, there’s no momentum left. Green means both legs are growing simultaneously. Now this line has turned green, and it’s the first time since the historical high in October 2025. This difference is crucial. Most rebounds in bear markets are purple, like castles in the air. But a true end to the bear market requires the spot leg to catch up, because spot represents chips bought with real money and won’t be liquidated by forced margin calls. Contract money is rented, spot money is your own. Of course, to be clear, it has just turned green and the time is still too short. The judgment is that this state needs to persist for about another month to confirm the real start of a new cycle. So my stance remains: the bear market has most likely ended, but the confirmation process is not yet complete. Short-term caution remains unchanged. 85% of short-term chips are in profit, daily RSI is 86, plus the core PCE on Wednesday and Jackson Hole starting Thursday. Don’t rush SanDisk $xSNDK rebounds from a sharp drop to $1,507: fell 6.45% yesterday, rose 0.98% today—is this a shakeout or distribution? Market action: A V-shaped recovery in progress. SanDisk's intraday low was $1,486, high $1,565, with a surge after open followed by a pullback. But what’s more notable is yesterday: SanDisk closed at $1,493.12 on 8/24, down 6.45% in a single day. Including last Friday’s pullback, it has given back over 16% in five days. From the $2,354 peak, it has retraced 37%, but YTD it’s still up 527%. Market cap is $220.7 billion, P/E ratio 20.4x. Why the drop: Three major shocks in a row. On 8/21, Samsung’s shareholder return plan caused turmoil (₩110 trillion / $80 billion but no buyback or cancellation), Korean stocks fell 8.7% on the first day, and US storage stocks followed down; NVDA’s earnings on 8/26 pre-market triggered a seventh consecutive decline, spreading negative sentiment; US Treasury yields remain high at 5.27%, leading to de-risking across the overvalued AI hardware sector. These three events combined pushed SanDisk from $1,617 down to $1,486. The trump card remains: $93.9 billion in locked orders. Eight NBM long-term contracts totaling no less than $93.9 billion, with an average term of about 4 years, and two-thirds of FY28 capacity already locked. Musk has pointed out storage as a core AI bottleneck, and Goldman Sachs predicts AI token consumption will increase 24-fold by 2030. These long-term contracts are more valuable than quarter-over-quarter growth, as they eliminate the biggest uncertainty in the cycle. 今年剩下的加密行情，我只看一条资金链 $BTC 重新站上$80K以后，我觉得接下来不用每天猜“今天涨还是跌”。 直接看钱往哪里走。 现在第一阶段已经发生： BTC突破$80K ↓ ETF资金重新回流 ↓ 美元走弱 ↓ 宏观流动性预期改善 ↓ BTC重新成为资金第一选择 而且8月BTC已经上涨约28%，说明市场风险偏好确实在快速恢复。 接下来我想看的，是第二阶段： BTC → $ETH 如果ETH继续突破并且明显跑赢BTC，说明资金开始从“避险型加密资产”向更高Beta资产移动。 然后第三阶段： ETH → SOL / HYPE / XRP / BNB / LINK 这时候市场开始从BTC行情变成真正的加密行情。 再往后： 主流山寨 → AI / RWA / DeFi → 中小市值 → Meme 如果这条链真的完整走一遍，我认为今年剩下的行情会非常有意思。 尤其现在RWA和稳定币基础设施也在继续扩张，机构对链上美债、私募信贷和稳定币支付的兴趣仍然在增加。 所以我并不认为今年剩下几个月只是炒BTC。 真正的大逻辑可能是： 宏观流动性改善 → BTC重新走强 → 机构资金进入 → ETH接#特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 The once booming presidential coin has also become an abandoned asset in the crypto world, $TRUMP has dropped from 74 to 2.49, and the team is still selling! TRUMP price history and current status: All-time high: $74.27 (January 19, 2025) Current price: about $2.49 Total drawdown: about 97% Market cap: dropped from $14.5 billion to about $630 million Supply-side structural bearish factors: · 80% of total supply held by insiders, unlocking plan continues until 2028 · 28.02 million TRUMP linearly unlocked in August, accounting for 11.28% of circulating supply · The team plans to deploy up to 96 million tokens from unlocked supply in the coming months Team operation records (recent): · August 23: 3.837 million tokens ($9.33 million) transferred to OKX · August 23: 2.62 million tokens ($6.2 million) transferred to OKX, price plunged 33% · August 24: 1.1 million tokens exchanged for 2.94 million USDC, average price $2.68 · The team withdrew $3.39 million USDC from liquidity pools within 10 hours · Since last summer, the team has transferred out over $150 million Funding data: · Nearly 1 million wallets at a loss, total loss of $3.8 billion · Less than 500,000 wallets in profit · The Trump family disclosed profits of $636 million from the token Conclusion: Every rebound is a window for the team to sell. This is not a market sentiment issue, but a structural flaw in the token economics.
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