Orbit Post Sitemap
BTC made three attempts to break through the 81,000 level but failed, retreating to 78,000. This is not a sign of a bearish market, but rather a pullback caused by the exhaustion of momentum from the previous short squeeze and profit-taking. The recent rally starting from 65,000 was mainly driven by concentrated short covering combined with continuous net inflows into spot ETFs for seven consecutive days, with a single-day net inflow of $337 million on August 24. Currently, the open interest in futures contracts has dropped to a nearly 5-month low, indicating that this rally is not led by new capital inflows but is more of a passive "false long" market formed by forced short liquidations.
At present, bulls and bears are fiercely contesting the 78,000–81,000 range: if 78,000 is breached, the support below is expected around 75,500, converted from previous highs; the 81,000–82,000 range faces strong resistance from the 50-week moving average and previous trapped positions selling pressure. Tonight's US core PCE data and Friday's Jackson Hole meeting will determine the subsequent direction. Rising expectations of Fed rate hikes are a hidden risk in the current market.
Overall assessment: the current phase is a high-level consolidation and shakeout, not a market top, but also not a smooth one-sided bull market. The morning session's advice to wait for a pullback confirmation helped avoid the spike-and-drop scenario in this rally. The bullish trend has not completely ended; only a daily close with volume above the 80,000 level will count as a valid breakout, otherwise all attempts to spike higher are considered bull traps.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
$BTC The U.S. Department of Commerce just released July data, pushing back the market's rate cut fantasies a bit:
Overall PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, unchanged from June and slightly above the expected 3.6%; the Fed's preferred core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, stuck at the same level for two consecutive months, with the month-over-month rate rising from 0.1% to 0.2%. Inflation hasn't declined further, nor has it surged out of control, remaining on a "sticky plateau."
This is both a buffer and a pressure for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh, who is about to appear at Jackson Hole.
In July's rate decision, there were already three dissenting votes against a hike, and the CME's pricing for a September rate hike has been pushed to around 40%. The market doesn't want another "data-dependent" approach but rather his reaction function since taking office: if inflation remains sticky, will he hike; if spending slows, will he hold back.
His keynote speech at 22:00 Beijing time on Friday is his Jackson Hole debut since taking office in May.
Traders are really focused on three sentences: whether he reaffirms the 2% target without a "soft landing" version; whether interest rates remain the main tool against inflation; and if subsequent CPI and employment data continue to be hot, whether he explicitly keeps the option to hike.
Walsh has deliberately compressed forward guidance and canceled the personal dot plot, which is his style at least, but the bond market has already voted with long-term yields. Saying too much would be interpreted as a rate hike preview, saying too little would further erode credibility.
Core PCE holding steady has already kicked the ball to Wyoming. After listening to the speech, watch how U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, and risk assets reprice.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ People who watch the market late at night have a problem: the more they watch, the more awake they become; the more awake, the more hesitant to act. BTC is currently in this state—78,833. Last night it was hammered down to 77,000 by the PCE (inflation data), but today it climbed back up on its own. You say it's weak, but the lows are getting higher day by day; you say it's strong, but the 80,000 barrier, on 8/25, even though it hit 81,269 intraday, it just couldn't hold above it.
As someone who came into this halfway, I stick to a hard rule when watching the market: everything above 80,000 is trapped positions left over from March to May. Those people will sell to break even and run, so any breakout must be driven by real incremental capital. No matter how loud the news is, it doesn't count. The "false breakout" on 8/25 was a live lesson—it surged to 81,269 but closed back down at 78,523, and those chasing the highs got buried that day. History repeats, but you don't have to pay the tuition twice.
What really made me sit up today were two things combined. First, inflation data exceeded expectations, and the market's bets on a Fed rate hike in September rose again—think about it, rate hikes = liquidity tightening, risk assets get hit first, and the crypto market shares the same mother as US tech stocks. When Nvidia falls, crypto falls too; this full scenario played out in 2022. Second, Nvidia's earnings report was explosive: revenue of $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year; data center revenue $89 billion; next quarter guidance $108 billion, while the market expected $105.1 billion—fully beating expectations, with after-hours gains of 5%. The AI light not only didn't go out, it got even brighter. But the problem is, the US stock market only gave it 3.8% applause—the stock price already rose 12% in August, expectations were priced in early, and the risk of all good news being priced is there. Crypto and AI share the same liquidity story; Nvidia beating expectations is good, but if there really is a rate hike in September, that light can't hold back the flood.
On the regulatory front, there's some warmth: the SEC has sent new crypto custody rules to the White House for review, and Coinbase has launched BTC-backed loans—big holders (whales, those with scary amounts of coins) can now pledge their coins to borrow money. Compliance is moving forward, which is good long-term, but don't expect it to pump the market in the short term.
The dumb indicators I watch myself are still the same: the 76,700 buy support cushion (someone always buys if it falls to this level) has never been broken; the lows 73,020→75,560→76,667→77,639 have been steadily rising, so the trend is intact. But until it holds above 80,000, I choose to watch the show. Nvidia has extended AI expectations, but rate hikes are suppressing liquidity expectations; these two forces offset each other, making for a frustratingly choppy market in the short term. I'll wait until it breaks above 80,000 with volume, or pulls back to the cushion before making moves—I prefer to miss out than to be the one catching a falling knife.
⚠️ As usual: the above is a review, not a trade call. All data sources and dates are marked; make your own decisions on positions. Don't go all-in just because I praised Nvidia a bit—those chasing highs have already been buried deep.
---
*Market data: gate.io 8/27 real-time (BTC $78,832 / ETH $2,501); News: Cointelegraph 8/26 (PCE, SEC custody, Coinbase loans); Nvidia: China Securities Journal/Caixin 8/27 early morning (revenue $96.2B +106%, data center $89B, Q3 guidance $108B, after-hours +3.84%)*📌AI capital expenditure accounts for nearly 2% of GDP growth, with a clear industrial chain logic
NVIDIA, as the core AI computing power seller, and SanDisk, corresponding to the storage segment, are deeply tied to the AI capital expenditure cycle.
AI model iteration and inference deployment lead to explosive data growth, continuously increasing storage demand.
Market risk lies not in the current bubble but in whether subsequent capital expenditures can match real demand.
As long as AI revenue and efficiency keep pace with investment, the fundamentals are supported; once capacity expansion accelerates and revenue slows, that marks the cycle turning point.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
$ETH $BTC #Anthropic30TTAM tells me something bigger than Anthropic's potential. AI companies increasingly see knowledge work itself as the market. If that's right, the real competition isn't just OpenAI vs Anthropic. It's AI vs existing software, consulting, outsourcing and even parts of human labor. That makes the opportunity enormous, but winning requires taking budgets from industries that already own them. The $30T question isn't how much AI can create. It's how much existing spend AI can capture.#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
NVIDIA's Q2 revenue doubled again, and it rarely gave a nearly 70% high growth guidance for FY2028. Meanwhile, Salesforce's AI annualized recurring revenue approaches $4 billion, CrowdStrike set a new incremental high, and Synopsys raised its full-year forecast. Taken together, this set of earnings reports means the underlying pricing logic of the AI sector is undergoing a fundamental qualitative change.
In the past two years, the market got excited and bought in whenever big companies spent crazily on buying cards. But now the evaluation criteria are extremely harsh: simply piling up capital expenditure stories no longer works; capital wants to see real orders, renewal rates, and whether it can be converted into positive free cash flow.
The sharp differentiation on the software side has already sounded the alarm. Salesforce and the cybersecurity leader can quickly monetize AI because they control irreplaceable enterprise workflows and data assets; while the moderate growth of targets like Okta proves that generic AI enablement simply cannot sell at a premium. Those who can continuously collect taxes from B-end customers are always core businesses with deep moats, not marginal plugins.
As Marvell and others in the network connection segment take turns releasing results, AI is moving from a compute chip solo act to a full-chain blood-making test. Entering the second half of the game of separating the true from the false, I will no longer pay for a simple compute pie; seeing the real cash monetization efficiency is the key to penetrating the bubble. Facing industry pain points such as mainnet performance bottlenecks and high transaction costs, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have chosen Layer 2 networks as their core expansion directions. However, their Layer 2 technical routes, design goals, and ecosystem frameworks are completely different, essentially extending their underlying positioning and determining the future expansion boundaries of the two public chains. Bitcoin's Layer 2 network centers on the Lightning Network, with an overall approach focused on minimalist payment scaling, fully aligning with Bitcoin's native positioning for value transfers. The Lightning Network uses state channel technology, with transactions completed off-chain, and final data settled on-chain only when the channel is opened and closed, enabling almost instant transfers with fees approaching zero, perfectly suited for small-amount, high-frequency payment scenarios. Bitcoin's scripting language is limited, making it difficult for Layer 2 networks to support complex smart contracts. Therefore, the Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem rarely touches complex applications like DeFi and NFTs, focusing solely on solving mainnet transfer congestion and high cross-border payment costs. In addition, auxiliary solutions like Liquid Federation sidechain and Stacks contract layer only slightly expand asset issuance and simple contract capabilities on top of payments. The overall ecosystem still revolves around value flow, never deviating from Bitcoin's stable, pure underlying tone. Bitcoin's core advantage is inheriting mainnet security, high decentralization, and low trust costs, but its scalability is strictly limited by the underlying architecture, making it difficult to incubate diversified application ecosystems. Ethereum's Layer 2 network mainly uses Rollup rollup technology, with a route centered on scaling smart contracts to serve massive decentralized applicationsZEC at $780, are you going to flee or buy the dip?
First, look at the surface: positive news realized, panic spreading.
On August 25, the Grayscale Zcash spot ETF officially launched on the NYSE, the first privacy coin ETF, a historic moment. The price immediately surged to 888, an 8-year high, the whole network was buzzing. Then what? It reversed downward, dipping to a low of 756, a 12% pullback.
A whale transferred 34,000 ZEC to Hyperliquid, has sold 24,000 for BTC, with the remaining sell orders pinned at 780.
First thing: The ETF is listed, but if you think the positive news is fully priced in, actually the curtain has just been raised.
Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) launched on August 25, holding about 393,000 ZEC, with AUM over $260 million. This is the world’s first privacy coin spot ETF, officially opening the institutional entry channel. Then the price dropped 12%.
When the Bitcoin ETF launched back then, it also dropped 20%, and then? It rose from 40,000 to 70,000.
Second thing: The vulnerability has been fixed, $170 million migrated to the new pool, trust rebuilt.
On July 28, the Ironwood upgrade was completed, the Orchard pool vulnerability was thoroughly fixed, a new shielded pool was created, about $170 million forcibly migrated through the “gate,” supply integrity verified. NU7 governance voting is ongoing, topics include issuance mechanism reform (smooth curve replacing halving), block time reduction, and 37 retrospective fund proposals.
Third thing: A technical signal has appeared that must be taken seriously.
The daily chart violently surged from 560 to 888, RSI hit 86 indicating extreme overbought, a pullback to 780 was inevitable. Support was found at 756-776, then a rebound, currently consolidating around 780.
20EMA is at 640, 50EMA at 560, far below the current price, indicating the major trend remains intact.
Pattern-wise: Weekly cup and handle breakout, target 936. The daily chart shows a "rally and retest confirmation" healthy shakeout, not a trend reversal.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
- The world’s first privacy coin ETF just launched, institutional channel opened
- Ironwood vulnerability fixed, $170 million migrated to new pool
- Shielded ratio rose to 31%, adoption accelerating
- Weekly cup and handle breakout, target 936
On the other side:
- 12% pullback from 888, short-term overbought digestion
- Whale selling 34,000 ZEC for BTC, 780 sell orders pressuring
- NU7 governance vote results uncertain (inflation model may change)
- If BTC pulls back, ZEC with high Beta will fall harder
Resistance above: 800-816 → 845-867 → 888 → 900-936
Support below: 760-771 → 746 → 700-720 → 640
Trading strategy:
Short-term traders:
- Go long if volume supports holding above 800, target 845-867, stop loss at 760. If it breaks below 760, don’t buy, wait for 746 or 700-720.
Swing traders:
- Wait for a pullback to 700-720 or near 640 to accumulate in batches (BTC stability is a prerequisite), target retest 880-900. Add positions if it breaks 900, eyeing 1000+.
Long-term believers:
- Dollar-cost average below 700 with eyes closed. Privacy sector + ETF compliance entry + BTC-like deflationary model, 2027 target 1500+.
ZEC now is like BTC ETF at the start of 2024—
It dropped 20% after listing, the whole network shouted "positive news fully priced in," then what?
The day 780 holds, you will realize:
It’s not that the ETF is useless, it’s that you always fall short right before institutional entry.
What is your ZEC cost basis?
At 780, do you dare to buy the dip?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Sau giai đoạn dòng tiền ETF liên tục rút mạnh, thị trường đang chứng kiến sự trở lại đáng chú ý của dòng vốn tổ chức. Tổng inflow gần đây đạt khoảng $2,25 tỷ — tín hiệu tích cực, nhưng vẫn chưa đủ để khẳng định một chu kỳ tăng bền vững. 📊 Trước đó, ETF từng ghi nhận 2 đợt rút vốn rất mạnh: • 15/5–3/6: -$4,3 tỷ • 17/6–1/7: -$2,7 tỷ So với lượng tiền đã rút, $2,25 tỷ quay trở lại vẫn còn khá khiêm tốn. Vì vậy, câu hỏi lớn nhất lúc này không phải “thị trường đã tăng chưa?”, mà là: DÒNG TIỀN NÀY CÓ#Meta stock price rises after massive settlement, risk pricing reassessed
Latest data
Meta will pay up to $18 billion in installments over ten years, resolving the looming trillion-dollar lawsuit risk, causing the stock price to rise accordingly. $BTC 80572, ETH 2494, SOL $100.6, the market remains cautious awaiting the Jackson Hole speech.
Market consensus
Losing money is minor; the biggest positive is clearing an extreme legal black swan, with uncertain risks now priced in; some worry that restrictions on teenage usage may drag down platform traffic and ad revenue.
Underlying logic analysis
Typically buy the expectation, sell the fact. Previously, the market discounted Meta for litigation risk, fearing losses in the hundreds of billions; the settlement amount is controllable, turning risk from infinite to a fixed number, naturally restoring valuation. Tech stock risk appetite rises slightly, sentiment mildly favors risk assets, but it won't change the main trend in crypto.
Personal view (leaning towards a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
This is more of a positive for individual stocks and should not be overly amplified to the crypto market. Continue to control your actions, keep positions unchanged, and focus on waiting for Federal Reserve officials' statements. Don't rush to simply interpret this round of $BTC rise as "QE expectations"
I've recently been reanalyzing the macro logic behind this round of BTC and gold strengthening in sync, and it really feels different from previous rounds.
One variable worth paying attention to is the Treasury debt management led by Janet Yellen. The Treasury is expanding long-term U.S. Treasury buybacks and improving long-end supply and demand by increasing short-term debt issuance, essentially trying to ease long-term financing cost pressures. The market easily interprets this operation as a kind of "fiscal easing," so assets sensitive to real interest rates and liquidity like gold and BTC react first. 
But what really puzzles me is inflation.
The latest July PCE year-over-year has reached 3.7%, and core PCE remains at 3.3%, clearly above the Fed's 2% target. After the data release, market expectations for a September rate hike rose from about 36% to around 42%. 
So here’s the question:
If the Fed really hikes rates again, will it directly undermine the macro logic behind this BTC rally?
I actually think it might not be that simple.
What’s really worth observing now may not be "whether the Fed hikes or not," but whether there will be an increasingly obvious game between fiscal policy and monetary policy.
In the past, the market was used to the central bank deciding liquidity, while the Treasury focused more on financing. But now, with the U.S. long-term debt scale and interest costs continuously rising, long-end yields themselves have started to influence fiscal policy. The 30-year Treasury yield once broke above 5.3%, and the Treasury even began expanding long-term bond buybacks. 
So now I’m more concerned about one question:
When the U.S. government finds it increasingly difficult to bear high long-term financing costs, who will ultimately bear the pressure of long-end interest rates?
If the answer ultimately points to continued Treasury intervention, gradually easing financial conditions, and even stronger monetary policy coordination in the future, then the long-term narrative for BTC and gold might actually continue to strengthen.
But if inflation gets out of control again and the Fed has to tighten significantly, then this logic will certainly be challenged.
So what’s really worth studying in this market move may no longer be simply "rate cuts or hikes," but what changes are happening among U.S. fiscal policy, long-term debt, and the Fed.
This part is indeed getting more and more brain-burning. Maji announced a 1 million acquisition of Friend.tech, with FRIEND surging 15 times in a short period.
On-chain activity preceded the official announcement: 11 million tokens were transferred to an independent wallet 5 days ago, consolidating chips in advance, making the positive news seem more like a pump narrative.
Maji invested 16.7 million in 2024 to build a position, but now only holds 500,000 in market value; the 1 million offer is just a fraction of the cost, aiming to create a narrative for taking over.
The project’s market cap is only 7.5 million, liquidity is extremely thin, and large wallet movements can easily influence the market.
Rather than whether the acquisition will materialize, focus on the subsequent actions of wallet 0x3205.
Small-cap altcoins carry very high risk; do not blindly follow the trend.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
$ETH $BTC 📈 Core Logic Behind SanDisk's Subsequent Rise
1. Fundamentals Are Accelerating, Not Just Speculation
SanDisk's FY2026 Q4 revenue reached $8.965 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase; full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year. More importantly, the data center business grew 437% year-over-year, becoming the core growth engine. 
This means the current stock price support is not just from the AI concept but from rapidly realized actual revenue and profits.
2. AI Data Centers Are Becoming the Largest Incremental Market for NAND
SanDisk management expects the NAND market size to exceed $300 billion in 2026, about triple the previous year; the data center's share of the entire NAND TAM is expected to rise from about 30% in 2025 to about 50% in 2026. Meanwhile, the company states that customer demand growth has already outpaced its own supply capacity, and supply tightness may continue beyond 2027. 
This is very important for SNDK:
Stronger AI computing power → larger data volume → higher data center storage demand → higher NAND/enterprise SSD demand → SanDisk benefits.
3. The Company's Next Quarter Guidance Is Very Strong
SanDisk expects FY2027 Q1 revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, Non-GAAP EPS of $44 to $46. Compared to FY2026 Q4's $8.965 billion, this means next quarter revenue still shows significant growth. 
In other words, the company currently shows no signs of "peak performance followed by immediate decline."
4. Significant Buyback Efforts
The company's board recently increased the stock buyback authorization by $14 billion, with remaining buyback authorization reaching $15.5 billion. 
Buybacks imply two things:
* Reduction in outstanding shares
* Potential further EPS uplift
If fundamentals continue to grow, performance growth + buybacks reducing share count will provide dual support for the stock price.
5. Long-Term Profit Model Is Even More Important Than Short-Term Performance
At Investor Day, SanDisk presented a long-term model for FY2028–FY2030, expecting revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits to teens percentage range, Non-GAAP gross margin target around 80%, and operating margin about 75%. The company also plans to return a large portion of remaining cash to shareholders. 
AI storage demand → NAND supply-demand tightness → ASP increase → gross margin improvement → rapid EPS growth → market revaluation.
🔥 And there is a very important catalyst tonight
After NVIDIA's latest earnings release, AI-related stocks showed clear positive feedback; post-market, SanDisk rose about 3.7% at one point, with the market viewing NVIDIA's AI demand as a key signal for the entire AI industry chain. 
So from fundamentals + AI storage demand + NAND prices + data center growth + buybacks + NVIDIA industry chain sentiment perspectives,
SNDK remains bullish medium to long term.
Those who understand should go long XRP closed at $1.41 on Thursday, down 1.61% intraday. Compared to the relative strength of Bitcoin and Ethereum, this pullback in XRP seems more like a result of its own concentrated leverage adjustment.
Data shows that long positions of XRP on Bitfinex were about 4.9 million in June. As the market heated up, they once climbed to 6.45 million in late August, with leveraged funds rapidly accumulating. Subsequently, long positions dropped to 5.62 million, indicating that some high-leverage funds have exited, and the market has begun a deleveraging phase.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin was priced at $78,762, up 0.4% in 24 hours; Ethereum was at $2,494, with a 2.2% increase. The overall performance of major coins is not weak, further highlighting that XRP's short-term adjustment mainly stems from changes in its own capital structure.
Looking ahead, whether XRP can hold the key area around $1.41 is worth watching. If the leverage cleanup is nearing completion and buying re-enters, the price may stabilize; otherwise, if longs continue to reduce positions, short-term further downside pressure may still be faced. $BTC $ETH $XRP #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Continuing from the previous article. $BTC Now around $78,800, with a slight pullback over 24 hours, still up about 7.9% over the past 7 days; ETH is around $2,490, up about +7% over 7 days. But today, the market has started to diverge significantly: BTC and XRP are weak, while SOL and BNB are still rising. This is what I find interesting now—the market is shifting from "the whole market rising together" to a phase of capital picking assets. If we continue looking further along the logic of capital rotation in the previous article, I will divide the current market into several layers. The first layer is still BTC. The most important thing for BTC right now is not immediately breaking through $80K, but whether **$77K–78K can hold**. Previously, it rallyed from around $63K all the way to $81K, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking position. If it can hold flat near $78K now, it means the market is willing to accept higher prices; If it falls below $76K again, short-term breakout failures must be avoided. Therefore, BTC is now more like the overall market "anchor." The second layer is ETH. ETH is currently around $2,490, with a 30% increase in the past 30 days, clearly shifting from "following BTC upward" to becoming the second asset capital is focusing on. Moreover, ETH ETF funds have recently improved significantly. On August 21, BTC and ETH spot ETFs combined net inflows of about $492 million, with ETH ETFs accounting for about $185 million. Therefore, my current view on ETH remains positive: hold the → near $2,400Over the past three weeks, the crypto market has completed a stunning reversal. $BTC surged from around $60,000 all the way up to $81,237, the highest since mid-May; ETH simultaneously rebounded from $1,900 to above $2,550, with weekly gains exceeding 30%. On social media, cheers of "bull recovery and quick return" have been everywhere, with market sentiment rapidly shifting from fear to greed. But if you think this is a broad-based rally, you may have fallen into an "index illusion"—the strength of BTC and $ETH masks a structural issue: funds have not spread to the broader altcoin market. 📊 The truth behind the rally: ETFs are buying, but not buying "all" The core driver of this rally is the continuous influx of institutional capital. From August 17 to 25, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.57 billion. On August 20, single-day inflows reached $606.3 million, setting a recent peak. So far in August, cumulative net inflows for BTC spot ETFs have surpassed $3 billion. ETH spot ETFs also performed strongly, recording net inflows of $189 million, $221 million, and $185 million over three trading days from August 19 to 21, and weekly net inflows of $697 million last week (August 17 to 23). Looking at these numbers alone, institutions are indeed "buying, buying," and buying. But the key point is—they are buying BTC and ETH, not the entire market. 📉 The real situation of altcoins: indexes look good, accounts look bad BTThe U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, once again drawing the market's attention to Bitcoin and gold. Robbie Mitchnick, Global Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, believes that Bitcoin's future valuation logic may not primarily depend on crypto regulation but could be more influenced by the continued expansion of U.S. debt and fiscal deficits.
According to data from the U.S. Treasury, federal debt rose to approximately $40.05 trillion on August 18, with about $32.3 trillion held by the public. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit and interest expenses continue to climb. The Congressional Budget Office projects a deficit of $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2026, while net interest expenses for fiscal year 2025 approach $970 billion.
In Mitchnick's view, when the market begins to worry about fiscal imbalances and the purchasing power of fiat currency, the appeal of scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin may further increase. Bitcoin's recent rapid rebound from above $60,000 to nearly $80,000 also indicates that capital is refocusing on its "digital scarce asset" attribute.
In contrast, regulatory progress such as the CLARITY Act may benefit the entire crypto industry but might have limited marginal impact on Bitcoin itself. What truly deserves long-term attention remains the U.S. fiscal condition, monetary credit, and the global capital's repricing of scarce assets. $BTC $ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Core Observation: $UNITREE has dropped from a high of 94.49 to 88.58, a decline of 6.3%, currently consolidating with low volume around 88. Combining real news and capital flow analysis, three major negative factors overlap, making a short-term further drop to 85-83 a highly probable event. Negative News Factor One: IPO bubble burst, market value evaporated by 190 billion. Unitree Robotics was listed on the STAR Market on August 19, with an issue price of ¥150.80, opening at ¥1100, a rise of 629.44%, and a market value of ¥444.911 billion. However, after listing, a large number of sell orders emerged, with a single-day drop of 18.7%, and the market value quickly evaporated by about ¥190 billion. This indicates that the surge on the first day of listing was a sentiment-driven bubble, and the market is voting with its feet to return to a reasonable valuation. The downward trend during the bubble burst process is difficult to reverse quickly. Negative News Factor Two: Institutions have huge unrealized gains and 90% of shares are directly tradable. Circulating shares account for only 7.44% of total shares, with highly concentrated holdings. Offline allocated shares are subject to proportionate lock-up arrangements, with only about 10% locked for 6 months, and the remaining 90% have no lock-up period and can be traded on the first day of listing. Institutions acquired shares at the issue price of ¥150.80, and the current price corresponds to about ¥630 RMB, with institutional unrealized gains exceeding 4 times, and the vast majority of shares can be sold at any time to realize profits, maintaining continuous pressure to take profits. Negative News Factor Three: Long-term unlocking pressure. In August 2027 (one year after listing), 112 million restricted shares will be unlocked.$ARM token rose 8% in 24 hours to 261.51, with the 4-hour RSI14 climbing to an overbought zone at 81.2, while the MACD golden cross red bars continue to expand — both signals are valid simultaneously, representing the current core structural contradiction.
From the market facts, ARM stands above MA7 and MA25, indicating a complete short-term trend structure. The 8% single-day increase occurred against the backdrop of the US stock market being closed overnight, meaning this rally lacks real-time anchoring from the underlying stock price. The token market liquidity is relatively thin, and local capital's price-driving efficiency is amplified.
In terms of driving factors, the AI computing power narrative is the primary driver. ARM and Oracle are categorized by the market as leaders in the AI rebound camp, with clear sentiment premiums. The Nasdaq 100 tokens rose 1.10% in the same period, providing sector linkage support, but ARM's increase far exceeds the sector average, indicating an individual stock premium component. Yahoo has already indicated the stock price is above fair value, a divergence signal worth noting.
Trigger conditions for the upward scenario: if the MACD red bars continue to expand in the next 4-hour candle, accompanied by increasing volume, the momentum expansion signal will outweigh the overbought signal, allowing the price to probe the 270-280 range. The variable to watch is whether volume synchronizes; if price rises but volume shrinks, this scenario fails.
Trigger conditions for the downward scenario: if RSI shows a bearish divergence above 81, or the MACD red bars begin to contract and reverse, combined with the underlying stock opening lower after the US market opens causing price spread pressure, the token market is prone to a quick pullback. MA25 is the nearest support reference; if broken, the short-term trend structure is damaged, and the pullback may exceed normal volatility.
Two core conditions invalidate the judgment: first, if after the US market opens, a significant price spread appears between the underlying stock and the token market, the token market direction will be dominated by the underlying stock once anchoring is restored; second, if the AI sector shows rotation signals and capital withdraws from the computing power direction, the individual stock premium will compress first.
The most important variables to observe in the next 24 hours: whether the MACD red bars contract in the next 4-hour cycle, the price spread direction between the underlying stock's actual quote and the token market after the US market opens, and whether volume continues to follow through at the current price range.
#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键 #Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？Unbeknownst until now, Predict Fun has accumulated fee captures totaling $13 million, with over $10 million of those fees captured in the past two months.
Predict Fun is already one of the top protocols with the strongest fee capture capability on BNB Chain, second only to a number of DEXs and Launchpads.
By category, the Crypto sector has contributed $5.6 million in fees, the Sports sector $4.8 million, Other $1.4 million, and the recently promoted Esports sector over $660,000.
Looking at secondary tags, Crypto fee contributions mainly come from the BTC Up/Down market, reaching $4.4 million; followed by ETH Up/Down.
The Sports sector is more diversified, with the football market driven by the previous World Cup contributing $3.9 million; additionally, basketball and baseball each contributed an average of over $300,000 in fees.
In the Esports sector, Dota 2 and CS 2 contributed $240,000 and $140,000 in fees respectively, while the LOL market is also gaining momentum.
Furthermore, TradFi-related Stocks and the macro Fed & Rates markets have together contributed over $100,000 in fees.#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Brothers, Nvidia's earnings report is not just "good," it's "ridiculously good." Revenue reached $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year, with the data center segment contributing $89 billion. Even more impressive, the CFO directly gave a 70% growth guidance for fiscal year 2028. Jensen Huang's exact words were, "The real demand is far higher than 70%, but supply limits us to delivering only 70%."
But this is just the first half of the story. The real highlight is that AI money is flowing into software. Salesforce's AI product ARR is about to break $4 billion, CrowdStrike's new net ARR hit a record high, and Synopsys just raised its full-year revenue guidance to $9.74 billion.
The market is no longer satisfied with "how much you spent on AI" and is now asking "how many orders and renewals AI has brought you." Those watching Nvidia's stock price are focused on when the production bottleneck will open; those following the AI track should really focus on software companies' ARR growth.
Marvell is taking over, and whether the network connection segment will simultaneously explode will determine how far this AI rally can go. The shovel sellers are indeed making money, but the market really wants to know: are the miners making money? @OKX星球 $xNVDA $xMRVL $xCRWD $SNDK storage concept stocks are currently in a correction phase within an upward trend. The overall structure looks almost the same; SanDisk's correction has ended, and breaking through the 1600 resistance level above is expected to trigger a new round of rally!
Similarly, $SKHYNIX and $MU are also in a correction phase. This range position can be considered for phased entry to catch some dips! #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 The overall market has stabilized, but the internal market is not very peaceful.
$BTC is repeatedly tugging around the $80,000 mark, and $ETH is holding at the $2,500 threshold. The two leading coins seem fine. However, zooming out a bit reveals that behind the shiny prices, capital is not flowing into a broader range of sectors. Most small and mid-cap assets are still following the downtrend rather than the uptrend, indicating limited market breadth.
This "strong head, weak body" structure is actually the result of concentrated ETF capital inflows. In the past two weeks, BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding $2.2 billion, and ETH spot ETFs about $697 million. Institutional buying is indeed substantial, but their allocation logic is "grab the leaders first," rather than spreading across the entire market.
The real signal that can shift the market from "BTC dominance" to "sector rotation" depends on two conditions: first, BTC must stabilize above the $78,500-$79,000 range structurally; second, the ETH/BTC ratio must gradually recover and start outperforming the overall market. Only when these two signals appear simultaneously does it mean capital is willing to spread out from BTC.
Before these signals become clear, a good-looking index does not mean your account looks good. Keep a close eye on the structure and don’t let price mislead your rhythm. Having the right direction doesn’t mean the position is right; patience is more important than judgment.$CORE: Few people talk about the real implicit game of CORE, which is not in official announcements but in the three layers of mismatch
The entire CORE community mostly focuses on one official announcement after another: lstBTC institutional version launch, stablecoin rumors, spaceship release timing, overseas influencers bullish calls.
But few realize that what truly determines the mid-to-long-term ceiling of this public chain is never a single blockbuster announcement, but the three layers of structural mismatches the project is currently facing. These contradictions won’t be written in official press releases but will gradually affect whether the ecosystem flywheel can truly start spinning.
First layer: Capital mismatch | BTC staking pool ≠ CORE ecosystem pool
Many promotions directly treat the total BTC staked as the ecosystem TVL, a misconception pointed out by many, but the deeper divide is rarely mentioned.
Currently, the 5541 BTC staked come with a very pure demand from holders: to earn passive staking income. The vast majority of BTC whales only see this as an interest-bearing tool and do not intend to further use lstBTC for on-chain lending, liquidity mining, or participating in various DApps.
Thus, two mutually independent capital pools are formed:
One is the $314 million BTC staking pool, which is very active; the other is a native DeFi pool worth only a few million dollars, thin in scale and concentrated in just a few protocols.
The BTC staking pool is hard to automatically overflow and feed back into the native ecosystem.
Even if BTC staking continues to increase in the future, without guiding some funds into on-chain applications, it will remain a situation where "a single staking product thrives, but the entire public chain remains thin."
Second layer: Value capture mismatch | BTC-Fi flywheel hardly directly benefits CORE tokens
There have been two extreme rumors in the market: one says CORE can mint stablecoins, the other says the token is useless. The real roadmap is clear: the planned native stablecoin will be collateralized by lstBTC, not CORE; service fees generated by lstBTC institutional business go into the protocol treasury.
So what is the positioning of the CORE token? Network staking, on-chain gas, community governance.
The reality is that token consumption from these scenarios is currently very limited. Governance is mostly dominated by top whales, with low participation from ordinary users; gas fees are small in volume; staking is mostly for mining incentives.
In other words, the bigger the lstBTC business grows, it does not mean the CORE token will benefit correspondingly. Most of the revenue created by the BTC-Fi flywheel flows to BTC stakers, and the token itself lacks a rigid, continuous value capture channel. This is an unavoidable shortcoming that needs to be addressed by new scenarios later.
Third layer: Institutional expectation mismatch | Integration completed ≠ Institutional funds immediately entering
lstBTC institutional version has completed integration with BitGo, Copper, Hex Trust, and many interpret this as a flood of institutional BTC soon to come.
But institutional onboarding is a long process: technical integration is only the first step, followed by full code audits, risk assessments, compliance reviews, internal investment committees, often taking 1-2 years. Custodians willing to integrate the product do not mean they will actively promote this chain to clients.
Looking at the industry, multiple tracks like Babylon, Lombard, etc., compete for the same batch of institutional BTC funds. CORE is just one more optional channel, without exclusive advantage.
Official announcements mark a milestone from zero to one, but commercialization is a long race. Large capital landing can only be judged by real on-chain large lstBTC minting data, not by a single announcement.
Back to market sentiment
Recently, external hype exploded, various rumors of adding positions flooded the screen, and prices changed "daily." Sentiment can only affect short-term trends and cannot quickly fix the above three layers of structural mismatches.
Next, three verification signals are worth continuous observation:
1. Whether some of the staked BTC starts flowing into native DeFi, driving native TVL and DApp activity up;
2. Whether the ecosystem can launch new scenarios to bring stronger value capture to the CORE token;
3. Whether large institutional funds landing can be verified on the lstBTC institutional side.
These changes won’t come from a sensational announcement but will gradually show in daily updated on-chain data. No need for blind enthusiasm or pure pessimism; shifting focus from chasing hot news to observing improvements in underlying contradictions is a more rational approach.
#CORE #BTC-FiNVIDIA is ruthless!! $NVDA's earnings report expects revenue to still grow by about 70% in the next fiscal year. Meanwhile, NVIDIA is expanding cooperation with AWS, planning to deploy an additional 2 million GPUs between 2027 and 2028. #EarningsObserver: NVIDIA exceeds expectations, software revenue begins to materialize
What does this mean? The market has recently been trading on the idea that "AI CAPEX has peaked," but signals from the industry side say the exact opposite: demand continues to rise, and NVIDIA is still in a supply-constrained state.
Of course, the faster the growth, the higher the market's future expectations will be.
But at least for now, the AI arms race has not entered the stage where "no one is willing to spend money."
A company that has already reached nearly $100 billion in quarterly revenue still dares to say it will grow another 70% next year—this might be the scariest number in this earnings report.Meta's share rise after the multistate settlement suggests investors are pricing clarity, not celebrating the expense. Court filings indicate payments of up to $16.68B, while Meta values the deal near $18B; the distinction matters because payments extend across years and some remain conditional. The expected $10B Q3 legal charge is therefore not equivalent to an immediate cash outflow.
My read: reducing a difficult-to-model tail risk can support valuation even alongside a large charge. But with thousands of cases still outstanding and youth limits potentially weighing on engagement and advertising, the repricing looks conditional rather than conclusive. Not advice, just analysis.
#MetaSettlementRepricingBTC surged then pulled back to 77000, a normal tug-of-war before options expiration
On Friday, Deribit has $6.4 billion BTC options expiring, with strike prices at 75000/80000 accumulating a large amount of bullish chips. Market makers' hedging will keep the price within this range, pushing down when it surges and buying on the pullback, a mechanical game before expiration.
The mid-term outlook remains bullish, but no additional positions are added at this stage. If 80000 cannot hold, consider it a shakeout; if 75000 is not broken, hold the base position.
Wait for Friday's position settlement and volatility to subside before the market shows a clear direction.
Short-term is prone to stop-losses from range sweeps; mid-term strategy: hold the base position firmly, follow up only after a solid breakout above 80000, and don't get shaken out by short-term noise.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
$ETH $BTC Here's the *latest Bitcoin $BTC Chinese flash news for the evening of 2026.08.27* 👇
*1. Price Overview*
- *Current Price: $78,650* 24H -1.8%
- *Intraday Low: $78,100* just tested
- *August Gain: +25.5%* still the *largest single-month gain since November 2024*
- *Market Cap: $1.561 trillion*
*2. Today's 3 Most Critical News*
#PCEToJacksonHole #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
Martingale: From the thrill of doubling to the nightmare of zeroing out, my practical review
Martingale was the most expensive lesson I've ever paid for. Simply put, it means doubling down on losses and running when you break even. It seems like a guaranteed win but is actually gambling with the market.
Last year, I used Martingale during BTC's sideways market, starting with a 100U position and doubling down on losses. In the first two weeks, my account grew from 1000U to 2800U. The thrill of recovering every loss was intoxicating. But on day 18, BTC suddenly plunged 8% in a single move, losing 6 trades in a row. The 7th time required adding 6400U — leading to immediate liquidation and zero balance. The 2800U profit plus 1000U principal vanished in one day.
Lessons learned from pitfalls
1. Sideways ≠ always sideways. Martingale only works in narrow ranges, but the market is sideways 80% of the time and trending 20%. That 20% trend can wipe you out. You never know when sideways ends.
2. Capital is limited, losses are unlimited. Losing 7 times in a row means 64x position size; 10 times means 512x. No matter how big your capital, exponential doubling is paper-thin.
3. Leverage is both an accelerator and a meat grinder. Martingale + high leverage = suicide. I used 10x; maybe 3x leverage could have survived that wave.
4. Stop profit and stop loss were set incorrectly. Martingale should have a "maximum drawdown stop loss" (e.g., force liquidation if total capital drops 20%) instead of stop loss per trade. I didn’t set a total stop loss, which was a fatal mistake.
The secret to survival isn’t how much you win, but not going zero in one shot @OKX成长学院 BTC has been moving sideways below 79k all morning, holding quite steadily.
The funding rate is still negative, with no one adding leverage to chase; this wave is driven by spot and ETFs buying. Although the long-short ratio shows bulls at 64%, contract positions have actually dropped by 11%, indicating it's not being pumped up by borrowed money. This kind of movement is more solid and reliable than a volume-driven pump.
The morning pullback hit around 78.4, liquidating over 50 million long positions and shaking out the weak holders. Now it’s back up to 78.8, showing strong signs of building momentum. The 80k level is a key threshold; breaking through it will accelerate the move.
ETH is stronger than BTC today.
Short positions liquidated over 64 million, the worst hit in the market, yet bears stubbornly keep adding. Position data shows 80% are long, but the funding rate hasn’t risen, indicating it’s not retail FOMO but bears actively buying to close shorts.
Once BTC stabilizes above 80k, ETH’s catch-up rally will be fierce. The first target is 2550, the second 2650—don’t get left behind.
The biggest variable for SOL today is the inflation vote.
It’s pulled from 95 to 101, with the monthly chart up nearly 40%, bullish sentiment is strongest, and 84% of margin market positions are long. But a detail: retail long-short ratio is 2.35, yet the funding rate has been negative, showing these holders are accumulating spot, not opening contracts to speculate. Selling pressure is really light.
Those holding at low levels shouldn’t move recklessly; those wanting to enter should wait for BTC to pull back near 78k to buy in. Until leverage builds up, the trend isn’t over. The real time to run is when retail starts borrowing to chase longs and funding rates skyrocket—far from that now.Damn! $HYPE now looks like a market torn in two. On one side, people are rushing to withdraw coins from staking, with about 950,000 tokens unstaked in 24 hours, worth over eighty million on the books.
On the other side, address 0x6436 has been continuously buying on multiple exchanges in recent days, accumulating over 380,000 tokens, with a market value just over thirty million. Bears think selling pressure is coming, bulls think someone is grabbing chips at the floor price, and both sides believe they are right.
It's wrong to treat it as a shitcoin. HYPE is the token of Hyperliquid, a public chain dedicated to on-chain perpetuals and spot trading, with a cap of one billion tokens and no VC allocation. The token is used for staking to secure the network, for fee discounts, and new markets require locking tokens.
Protocol fees consistently rank among the top public chains, and the Aid Fund uses revenue to buy back and burn tokens, effectively unlocking on one side while reclaiming circulation on the other.
The real pressure isn't sentiment, it's the calendar. On August 29, another batch of about 14.18 million tokens will unlock, worth roughly 1.2 billion USD at current prices, close to 1.4% of total supply and 2.7% of market cap, with internal contributors holding nearly half.
Unlocking doesn't mean immediate dumping, but floating supply will increase. Buybacks can absorb some, but the leftover will battle in the order book.
So this pullback shouldn't be mythologized or cause panic. Unstaking means supply loosening, and whales adding positions means someone is betting real money that fees and buybacks can still outweigh unlocking.
This move is 666!
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 短短五个交易日，美国现货比特币ETF的净流入就超过了二十亿美元，这组数据最近在圈内讨论度不低。单看数字，它确实是近十个月以来最密集的机构吸筹窗口之一，但如果只停留在“华尔街在买”这个层面，反而容易错过更值得琢磨的细节。 我真正关注的不是某一天的爆发，而是节奏的稳定性。要知道，比特币此前刚从阶段性低点回升，价格已经明显抬高，机构资金却没有停下来等更深的折扣，而是继续按部就班地进场。这种“越涨越买”的连续性，比一次性的天量流入更能说明问题——它暗示一部分资金不是在赌短期方向，而是在做跨周期的结构性配置。 当然，看到机构持续买入，很多人会下意识觉得“大资金一定知道些什么”。这个猜想并非没有道理，但我们需要保持一点克制。大型基金建仓的周期往往以月甚至年为单位，它们对短期波动的容忍度远比散户高得多。因此，这波ETF流入更适合被理解为长期需求的信号，而不是比特币马上要继续拉升的保证。区分这两者，对判断后市节奏至关重要。 接下来更值得观察的，其实是比特币进入盘整阶段后ETF资金的表现。如果价格在高位横盘甚至出现正常回调，而现货ETF依然保持可观的净流入，那就说明机构愿意在弱势中慢慢吸筹，这比只在突破"NVIDIA's Single Quarter Hits $96.2 Billion: Major Companies Still Scrambling for Chips, Enterprise Software Has Started to Bring in Real Money"
With a single quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, NVIDIA's latest financial report shatters market concerns about AI investment peaking.
Looking into the details, it becomes clear that the new growth engine is no longer just the few well-known leading cloud giants.
Enterprise clients and AI teams contributed over $40 billion, doubling year-over-year and fully surpassing traditional cloud giants.
Computing power is no longer a training toy for a few big companies, but enterprises directly integrate it into their business, earning software subscription fees by consuming Tokens.
The full-stack software and hardware moat keeps gross margins steady at an ultra-high level of 75%. Next quarter's guidance points to a hundred billion, and order schedules are continuously extended through the year after next. $BTC As of August 27, 2026, the mainstream coin market, after a strong rebound last week, has entered a phase of high-level consolidation and divergence. Bitcoin briefly broke above $80,000 but then retreated below $79,000, with the market shifting from liquidity-driven to macro policy expectation-driven.
Market trend: Surge and pullback, technical resistance emerges
· Overall status: Bitcoin $BTC is currently around $78,700, slightly down intraday, failing to hold above the $80,000 mark. Last week's sharp rise narrowed the seven-day gain from 23% to about 14%.
· Key resistance: The market is closely watching the $83,000 level (near the 365-day moving average). Breaking through this area is crucial to confirm trend continuation.
Mainstream coin performance: $SOL strong, $XRP pulls back
· Solana ($SOL): Leading against the trend, up nearly 4% intraday, price back above $101.
· Ethereum ($ETH): Relatively firm, up about 1% intraday, fluctuating around $2490.
· $XRP: Leading the decline, down nearly 3% intraday, but still up about 28% for the week.
· $BNB and $DOGE: Stable performance, $BNB around $703, $DOGE steady at $0.09.
Long-short battle focus
· Support factors: The US Bitcoin spot $ETF has seen nearly $2 billion net inflow over the past 5 days, providing real buying support, with clear signs of institutional demand returning.
· Pressure factors: Market expectations for Fed rate hikes are heating up, US Treasury yields rising, suppressing risk assets; meanwhile, technical pressure and profit-taking exist above $80,000, and the decline in open interest also suggests part of this rally is driven by short covering.
Summary: The current market is at a stage of "strong fundamentals, but valuations and positions are becoming crowded." Bulls are trying to digest short-term profits and await new macro or regulatory catalysts (such as Fed Chair speeches) to confirm the next direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 很多人看到7月核心PCE 3.3%符合预期、二季度GDP维持1.5%，第一反应是松了一口气，觉得没有黑天鹅就是利好。但在我眼里，这份看似平静的数据，恰恰把美联储推进了最尴尬的滞胀夹缝里。
1.5%的实际GDP增速暴露出实体动能正在失速，而3.3%的核心PCE距离2%红线依然遥不可及。降息怕通胀二次抬头，紧缩怕实体信贷暴雷。市场利率定价之所以转向通胀黏性，是因为资本认清了现实：所谓的宽松大门根本没有真正打开#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Continuing from the previous text: BlackRock said that the real bigger catalyst for Bitcoin might not be the CLARITY Act, but the continuously deteriorating fiscal structure of the United States.
And this precisely connects with the long-term logic of BTCFi and Core.
BTC solves the problem of "value storage," while BTCFi addresses "how to generate financial value from BTC."
As more BTC is held long-term, capital will naturally further question:
Besides holding, can these BTC participate in Staking, lending, liquidity, and DeFi?
This is the meaning of BTCFi's existence.
What Core is betting on is to transform BTC from a "lying asset" into an asset that "can be used, generate income, and participate in on-chain finance."
So this logic can be simply understood as:
Fiscal pressure → Enhanced BTC value proposition → Expansion of BTC asset scale → Financialization of BTC → BTCFi → Infrastructure like Core benefits.
What truly deserves attention is not just how high BTC can rise.
But:
As more global capital begins to hold BTC, will BTC evolve from "digital gold" into the underlying asset of the entire on-chain financial system?
If the answer is yes, then BTCFi might be the next bigger space for BTC's imagination, and Core's value lies here.ZEC officially knocks on Wall Street's door!
This matter is more worth pondering than rising to $800.
I have always been following $ZEC and would bet on it, but today's news carries more weight than simply breaking the previous high.
Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) is officially listed on NYSE Arca, the first ETF in the US that can directly allocate ZEC. Before its launch, ZEC has already surged from $600 to $867.
The first-day trading volume was $14.8 million, which is indeed not much compared to Bitcoin ETFs, but ZEC was previously a niche privacy coin — this scale is enough to prove the point.
Previously, buying ZEC was basically for insiders only. Now, traditional stock accounts can buy it with a click, and even before the ETF is launched, the fund size has already exceeded $313 million, indicating that capital has been lurking for a long time, not starting from zero.
I told my friends before that this market cycle might repackage $ZEC from a "privacy coin" into a "privacy version of Bitcoin."
Now even the entrance to Wall Street has been opened.
So the target remains unchanged, $ZEC continues to look at $1100, come on! Let's go!
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 NVIDIA's earnings report is truly explosive:
Q2 revenue reached $96.2 billion, more than doubling year-over-year by 106%;
Wall Street expected about $92.2 billion, so it was left far behind.
Q3 guidance is $108 billion, with a 2% margin of error, also above the market expectation of about $104 billion. Data center revenue hit $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, accounting for 90% of the company's total revenue.
But the strangest thing isn't the numbers, it's what happened after hours.
When the earnings were released, the stock price initially dropped about 1% to 2%.
After the earnings call, it bounced back, rising about 4% to 5% in after-hours trading.
This has happened several times recently: earnings beat expectations, but the stock's first reaction is often weak—not because the numbers are bad, but because expectations have already been priced in too heavily.
There were two more solid confirmations on the same day.
Amazon officially announced it will purchase another 2 million GPUs from NVIDIA to deploy on AWS, covering 2027 to 2028; NVIDIA's CFO said that the capital expenditure of the five largest hyperscale cloud providers is close to $800 billion this year and could reach $1.3 trillion by 2027.
Demand is still increasing; it's not that no one is buying chips.
You see, this is the current contradiction: the financials look better and better, but the stock price finds it harder to surge just by "beating expectations."
So, is NVIDIA's earnings report a case of all the good news being priced in, or is the pullback an opportunity for investors to get in? $NVDA $xNVDA ETH shows relatively strong intraday performance, indicating that when the market lacks a clear direction, capital still prefers to return first to core assets with better liquidity and more complete narratives. Stablecoins, RWA, institutional custody, and on-chain financial infrastructure—these directions that have been repeatedly discussed recently—mostly revolve around the Ethereum ecosystem in the end. ETH's current advantage is not a single hotspot but a sufficiently broad application layer; however, it should be noted that if the mainstream market continues to shrink in volume, the rebound may also lack sustainability. Going forward, it is more worthwhile to watch DeFi activity, L2 capital flows, and whether institutional funds continue to recover. $ETH TRX is relatively weak intraday, performing more steadily than high Beta public chains, but this also indicates that short-term funds have no obvious intention to chase higher. The underlying logic of TRON has always been relatively clear: stablecoin transfers, on-chain settlement, and high-frequency usage scenarios. Recently, traditional finance has been continuously discussing stablecoin issuance and global settlement networks, which is a positive background for payment-oriented public chains like TRX, but the market will ultimately focus on the scale of on-chain stablecoins, transfer data, and fee income. It may not be the most explosive, but it is easier to demonstrate defensive characteristics in a volatile market. $TRX #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
The US core PCE remained flat compared to last month, indicating that the pace of inflation cooling has not accelerated for now. The market impact of this result depends on two aspects: first, whether core prices can continue to decline, and second, how the Federal Reserve interprets the current economic data. Since the monthly data has not significantly worsened, investors are unlikely to confirm a rate cut based on this for the time being, but the lack of upward momentum in inflation also leaves room for discussion about a policy shift.
Waller is about to speak at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, and the market expects him to explain the trade-offs between inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Fed previously held rates steady with a 9-3 vote, with three officials supporting a rate hike, making the division public. If Waller continues to emphasize inflation risks, expectations for a September rate cut may cool down, potentially strengthening the US dollar and Treasury yields, while gold, cryptocurrencies, and high-valuation tech stocks could face pressure. If he acknowledges that demand is slowing and signals a greater focus on employment, the market might bet again on policy easing, supporting risk assets.
What really matters is whether Waller can provide clear criteria for judgment. Investors need to know to what extent core PCE must decline and how much the unemployment rate must rise before rate decisions change. Without this set of standards, even if the speech contains dovish language, the market will find it difficult to form stable expectations. A severe drop does not mean no hope; this might be the most appropriate perspective when looking at the gap between DOGE and BTC. From the beginning of the year until now, DOGE has fallen from $0.156 to $0.084, a drop of about 46%; BTC during the same period has retreated from about $88,700 to around $78,700, only dropping about 11%. Objectively speaking, this is a typical Beta dilemma: in a down market, funds always withdraw first from high-volatility assets, and altcoins, lacking ETF support and institutional allocation, are the first to be hit, with their declines amplified multiple times.
But from another angle, Beta is a double-edged sword; the part that causes it to fall more today is precisely the source of its rebound elasticity tomorrow. Historically, every cycle follows a similar rhythm: BTC stabilizes first, hits new highs first, and only after confirming the trend does capital begin to overflow into high Beta assets, at which point altcoins often outperform the leaders by a wide margin. Currently, the deeper $DOGE retraces, the more thoroughly the trapped positions above are cleared, meaning that once market risk appetite returns, the recovery potential is considerable.
Of course, optimism does not mean recklessness. The reality that bulls need to accept is: the altcoin spring has never been an independent rally but an extension of the BTC rally. The leader does not just fall; talking about a reversal is wishful thinking. So a smarter approach might be—reserve core positions for $BTC as a foundation, and keep satellite positions for high-elasticity assets like DOGE to bet on a reversal. Pessimists correctly avoided the decline, while optimists have the chance to profit from the next round of elasticity.Iran risk now has two competing trades. Tougher US sanctions could squeeze oil supply, lift inflation and tighten dollar liquidity. Diplomacy could do the opposi Hormuz and stripping the risk premium from crude and gold. BTC sits awkwardly between both outcomes. Lower tensions reduce haven demand but improve the liquidity backdrop. The next move may depend less on geopolitics itself and more on whether sanctions or negotiations hit #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest "Computing power is no longer just a cost; it is becoming a means of production."
On the surface, Nvidia's earnings report shows "performance exceeding expectations," but what I think is truly worth watching is how it is transforming from a company that sells GPUs into the "master switch" for the entire AI industry's prosperity.
Now, judging Nvidia can no longer be based solely on how many GPUs it sells.
AI is shifting from "burning money to train models" to "using computing power to generate revenue."
AWS plans to deploy about 2 million Nvidia GPUs over the next two years, indicating that the capital expenditure cycle for cloud providers is far from over.
So my judgment is simple:
The fundamentals are stronger than the market fears.
But here comes the question—
After everyone knows Nvidia is strong, can the stock price continue to deliver the same returns?
This is what will truly be worth watching next. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $NVDA Another manifestation of extreme greed in the crypto circle, important for contract traders
After 6 days, let's look again at the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot and contract price inversion phenomenon
On August 21, the contract prices of both coins were inverted
99.9% of the time, the spot price is higher than the contract price; inversion only occurs when the market rises to extreme frenzy and retail investors recklessly go long
This situation also indicates short-term extreme greed and loss of rationality among retail investors, so a short-term peak is not far off. As expected, after Bitcoin surged, it started a small pullback
Today, the spot price has returned to calm, slightly higher than the contract price. This extreme greed sentiment has also eased, and there are many bearish voices in the market
From this perspective, this inversion phenomenon is very valuable for short-term contract traders. When prices are inverted, chasing to go long is irrational and carries great risk
If you trade contracts, you might as well consider this phenomenon in your order decisions
$ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ POL is clearly under pressure today, with volatility greater than most mainstream public chain coins, reflecting that the market still strictly prices competition in the L2 track. Polygon has a mature developer base and enterprise cooperation resources, but investors are more concerned whether routes like AggLayer can truly bring cross-chain liquidity, active users, and application growth. Currently, if the overall market risk appetite declines, L2 tokens are usually the first to be reduced. Whether POL can recover later depends on whether the ecosystem data can cooperate, not just technical narratives. $POLBullish on ETH within three years, bullish on SOL after three years.
ETH is like the Swift system, its security is recognized by institutions, and it may be institutions entering the market that drive the price up within three years.
SOL is like the Visa company, high performance, more centralized than Ethereum. As blockchain technology gradually becomes recognized and popularized on Wall Street, the general public will start to accept blockchain technology and it will become common in everyday households. AI artificial intelligence robots will continue to develop, leading the subsequent development of DEPIN. This process may still take three years. Such large-scale growth requires a high-throughput chain. It could be SOL or other high-performance chains, but for now, SOL seems more likely.Strategy holding more cash indicates it is no longer just a "buy coin button." Previously, the market viewed it simply: raise funds, then buy BTC. Now it has started to increase cash reserves, manage preferred stock, and take care of capital structure, making things more complex. The more cash it holds, the stronger its volatility resistance; but too much cash dilutes the BTC leverage story.
This actually presents a new challenge for shareholders. When you buy MSTR, are you buying a more aggressive BTC exposure, or a company with increasingly mature balance sheet management? The answer differs, and so does the acceptable valuation.
I believe Strategy is entering its second phase: faith remains, but financial engineering is taking a seat at the main table. Going forward, the market will not only look at how many coins it has bought but also whether each financing round has caused painful dilution to existing shareholders.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 High-level divergence: Different adjustment logics of BTC and ETH
The market often tends to treat BTC and ETH as assets moving in the same direction, but during high-level consolidation phases, their adjustment rhythms are actually quite different, a divergence often overlooked by traders.
BTC's underlying chip structure is dominated by long-term believers, with a large supply locked in cold wallets, resulting in a limited effective circulating supply. After a rapid rally, large funds lack the motivation for concentrated selling; corrections are mostly driven by contract long-liquidations and leverage clearing, with controllable amplitude and a relatively slow pace. Therefore, BTC often shows a "time for space" sideways digestion characteristic at high levels.
ETH, however, is different. Its ecosystem is widely applied, with a high proportion of staked and on-chain arbitrage funds, leading to high price elasticity. After a rally, short-term traders, DeFi strategy funds, and liquidity mining participants are more likely to create concentrated cash-out pressure. Even if macro sentiment does not deteriorate, ETH may independently correct due to internal fund rotation, with amplitude and slope exceeding BTC, causing a significant decoupling of their strength.
This divergence is the biggest trap in high-level trading: seeing BTC hold steady, one assumes ETH is safe and blindly copies position strategies. In reality, stability supports high holding costs, while ETH's volatility reflects the double-edged sword effect of its high liquidity. In leveraged trading, the two require differentiated pricing—BTC can tolerate relatively loose stop-loss space, while ETH must tighten risk control, proactively reduce position multiples, and preset emergency plans for sudden sharp drops.
High-level consolidation is not a continuation of moving up or down together but a crucible of asset attributes.$BTC & $ETH : FLOWS REMAIN POSITIVE, BUT CAUTION RISES
$BTC trades around $79K after resistance near $80K–$82K, while $ETH holds above $2.5K and continues showing strength. Spot ETF flows remain a key positive, with U.S. BTC and ETH ETFs attracting roughly $2.6B over the latest five sessions.
However, profit-taking and macro uncertainty are limiting momentum. A sustained $BTC breakout above $82K would strengthen the bullish structure, while $ETH needs to hold $2.5K to maintain its advantage.