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$BTC The real amplifier of this game is the approximately 81,700 Bitcoin options expiring on Deribit this Friday (August 28) at 16:00 Beijing time, with a notional value of about $6.44 billion.
There are about 44,600 calls and 37,100 puts, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.83, indicating an overall bullish bias. The strike prices with the most concentrated positions are at $75,000 and $80,000: $236 million notional in calls at $75,000 and $157 million in calls at $80,000. The notional value of options stacked within 5% of the current price exceeds $500 million.
Last week’s rapid surge turned many previously out-of-the-money calls into in-the-money, sharply increasing market makers’ hedging pressure. As expiration approaches, Gamma hedging will become more frequent—when prices approach these strike prices, a "pinning" effect tends to occur, causing friction between $75,000 and $80,000; once there is a valid breakout or breakdown, the hedging direction reverses, potentially accelerating volatility. The $80,000 level is both a psychological barrier and the battlefield with the largest Delta exposure.
Although the maximum pain point is near $68,000, it is too far from the current price to exert much short-term pull. What truly determines the price movement around delivery is the hedging flow of options near the current price and whether the spot price can hold the $75,000 support and retest $80,000.
After the surge and pullback, the market has shifted from a "one-sided short squeeze" to a "strike price battle." Option expiration won’t change the long-term trend but will push up volatility and trading volume over the next day or two. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 80,000 Threshold, 5 Quick Takes
Quick Take 1: Up 23% in a Week, But the Fuel Is Not Faith
BTC surged from 64,500 to 81,000, gaining 16,000 USD in a week.
On August 19 alone, shorts liquidated $1.37 billion. On August 20, 180,000 people were liquidated, totaling $3.264 billion.
The fuel for this rally is the corpses of shorts, not the faith of bulls.
K33 themselves said—this is the largest single-day short squeeze on record. In plain terms: the rise isn’t because of optimism, but because shorts were brutally squeezed out.
The market is running on corpses.
Quick Take 2: Shorts Were Cleaned Out, Bulls Didn’t Add Leverage Either
Glassnode data shows futures open interest dropped to about 587,584 BTC, the lowest in nearly five months. This is a clear decline from mid-August’s 645,760 BTC.
Shorts have been thoroughly cleaned out.
But bulls haven’t increased leverage either.
The market is now in a vacuum—no positions, no direction. Whoever moves first will be the next to get liquidated.
Quick Take 3: ETFs Are Buying, But the Nature of the Money Is Unclear
Last week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $1.92 billion, a 10-month high. BlackRock’s IBIT bought for five consecutive days, absorbing $209 million on August 24 alone.
Institutions are voting with real money.
But is this money chasing the rally or positioning for the future?
Total inflows in August have reached $2.72 billion so far. The problem is—the higher the price, the stronger the holders’ willingness to take profits. Whether ETF buying can absorb the selling pressure at high levels is the key to whether this rally can continue.
Quick Take 4: $6.44 Billion in Options Expire Today at 4 PM
About 81,700 Bitcoin options on Deribit expire today at 16:00 Beijing time, with a notional value of $6.44 billion.
Call options are concentrated between 75K-80K.
The biggest pain point is 68K.
Translation: Market makers want the price to drop to 68K to render most options worthless.
Thursday afternoon could be the most volatile hours of the week—market makers’ hedging adjustments will amplify price moves. Don’t eat in front of your computer.
Quick Take 5: Just Remember Two Numbers
83K above is the bull market confirmation—Bitget Research Institute says a valid break above 83K targets 85K-90K.
74K-76K below is the bulls’ defense line.
80,000 is a psychological barrier, not a technical endpoint.
After options reset, the true trend direction will become clear.
After 4 PM today, we’ll see the outcome.
$ETH $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The three-day "danger period" at the 80,000 mark: Tomorrow at 4 PM, $6.44 billion in options expire—can your position hold up?
Brothers, listen up.
The positions you hold now might face a "stress test" in the next 48 hours.
Tomorrow (August 28) at 4 PM (Beijing time), $6.44 billion worth of Bitcoin options on Deribit will expire all at once.
This is no small amount. These contracts account for nearly 20% of Deribit's total open interest in Bitcoin options.
More importantly—BTC just violently surged from the $62,000 range to above $80,000, turning a large number of call options from "worthless paper" into "real money."
Market makers will be frantically adjusting and hedging their positions over these two days, making the market extremely sensitive.
Let's look at the current situation: Where is BTC stuck?
This morning, BTC was oscillating between $78,500 and $79,000.
The weekly high touched $81,272 but failed to hold and dropped back down.
Resistance above: $81,000–$83,000 (50-week moving average resistance zone)
Support below: $74,000–$76,000
The $75,000 and $80,000 levels are especially critical—call options open interest is concentrated around $236 million and $157 million respectively.
If it breaks above $83,000 effectively, it could open the $85,000–$90,000 range. But if it can't hold, falling below $75,000 is also possible.
Within 24–48 hours before and after options expiry, market makers' hedging adjustments could trigger violent swings of ±5–10%.
So how should you manage your position? Here are three plans; choose what fits you:
🟢 No position / light position → Wait and watch until after options expiry, then build positions gradually near support levels.
Don't chase highs before derivatives expire. Market makers will be closing positions and adjusting delta, causing prices to be pulled back and forth. If you chase in, you risk a "double whammy." Wait for the dust to settle.
🟡 Half position → Take partial profits in the $78K–$80K range, keep core holdings.
The core driver of this rally is a "short squeeze"—on August 19 alone, $1.37 billion in shorts were liquidated, nearly twice the 2021 record. After shorts are cleared, how long can the fuel for the rally last? Lock in some profits and keep ammo ready for a pullback; no shame in that.
🔴 Heavy position / contracts → Set strict stop losses and reduce leverage.
Don't talk to me about "faith." Options expiry may cause violent swings, and your faith won't withstand a 10% amplitude. Lower your leverage and set stop losses. Surviving these three days is more important than anything.
But don't panic, here's something medium-term.
Analysts from K33 and Bitwise believe this historic short squeeze, combined with leverage resets and macro changes from the US Treasury's long-term bond buybacks, may signal that the crypto market is shifting into a broader "bull market reset."
Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages within 4 days—faster than in any previous cycle.
Similar historical situations have only occurred three times: October 2015, April 2020, and October 2023—all near the start of cyclical bull markets.
Short-term options disruptions don't change the medium-term trend, but timing is more important than direction.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chair are each playing their own tune—how will this tug-of-war between debt and inflation ultimately unfold?
Besent is conducting long-term bond buybacks at the Treasury, trying to pull down the soaring US Treasury yields, while Walsh, leading the Fed, insists on respecting market pricing and firmly fighting inflation. These two brothers from the same school have KPIs that directly clash.
Why is Besent's move only a temporary fix?
Facing a US Treasury market with tens of trillions in outstanding debt, an additional quarterly buyback of billions is like a drop in the ocean. Using a mechanism originally meant to supplement liquidity for price intervention not only exposes anxiety about debt sustainability but also increases the risk of borrowing short and lending long. If inflation forces the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the Treasury's interest costs will actually soar faster.
Walsh's Achilles' heel: credibility and signaling
Walsh advocates letting the market price freely. If the Treasury forcibly intervenes, market signals get distorted, making it difficult for the Fed to make decisions.
If Walsh compromises with the administration, the market will perceive the Fed as losing independence, demanding higher risk premiums and pushing up long-term rates. If he sticks to a hawkish anti-inflation stance, it will directly undermine the Treasury's efforts.
Market outlook
Fiscal intervention will quickly fail.
Without deficit reduction, any buying intervention will be overwhelmed by market selling pressure.
Walsh will play Tai Chi.
At the Jackson Hole speech, he will likely reaffirm his anti-inflation stance to maintain credibility and shift the pressure to cut rates back to fiscal budget cuts.
Hard assets continue to rally.
Gold and cryptocurrencies are strengthening as capital bets on currency depreciation and fiscal mismanagement. As long as inflation doesn't come down, this awkward tug-of-war between the central bank and the Treasury will continue.$BTC After this rally from the lows, I actually dare not chase it.
Bitcoin surged about 23% over the past week, reaching a high near $81,000, and is now oscillating around $79,000. The bullish logic is clear: a weaker dollar, liquidity expectations from U.S. Treasury repos, plus spot ETF funds flowing back in. The U.S. spot $BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with over $3 billion inflow in August, indicating institutional funds have indeed returned.
But the short-term issue is obvious: $80,000 is a significant resistance. The price rose too fast earlier, profit-taking has started, and BTC failed to hold above $80,000 after two attempts.
So now I want to lightly short some, but as long as around $75,000 holds, I remain bullish; if volume picks up again and it firmly holds above $82,000, I will watch for the next trend. Conversely, if ETF inflows cool down and it breaks below $75,000, then this rally looks more like a liquidity-driven sharp rebound rather than a new major uptrend.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
#银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 A company earns more in a quarter than many countries in a single year$NVDA and has delivered another round. In the second quarter of FY2027 (ending July 26, 2026), quarterly revenue was $96.221 billion, a year-on-year surge of 106% and an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase, continuing to set new historical records. GAAP net profit was $59.688 billion, up 126% year-over-year. Gross margin remained stable at 75%. What does that mean? In a single quarter, a company earned nearly $60 billion in net profit. This figure is higher than the annual GDP of many medium-sized countries. Even more striking is the guidance: Q3 median revenue was $108 billion, marking the first time in history that a single quarter surpassed the $100 billion mark. The company also unpresequently gave a definite guidance of 70% year-on-year revenue growth for fiscal year 2028 one year in advance. Jensen Huang said a repeatedly quoted line during the call: "AI has reached a turning point and is doing useful work. Its token has productivity and profit. Now, calculation is revenue." But the most interesting part wasn't the financial report itself, but the market's reaction — before the report, it fell for seven consecutive days, with $410 billion in market value evaporating; As soon as the report came out, it surged 5% in after-hours trading. This kind of tearing is precisely the key to understanding Nvidia and the entire AI industry chain today. 1. Earnings Statement Analysis: Every Number Says "Supply Exceeds Supply" First, lay out the core data clearly to understand how tough this financial report is. Revenue: $96.221 billion, up 106% year-on-year; GAAP net profit: $59.688 billionThe risk in the Strait of Hormuz has eased, Brent crude oil has fallen back to about $87, and energy inflation pressure has decreased. Market attention is beginning to shift to tomorrow's Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Impact chain:
oil price ↓ → inflation pressure ↓ → Fed pressure eases
Warsh hawkish → US Treasury yields ↑ → gold/BTC/US stocks under pressure
Warsh dovish → yields ↓ → gold/BTC/US stocks supported
My judgment: Currently, there are no new major sudden events. The market's main focus has gradually shifted from "Iran + crude oil" to "Fed + US Treasury yields." Tomorrow's Jackson Hole may become the key catalyst for the next round of market movement. After the short-term bullish momentum of $NVDA is realized, the marginal momentum of the bulls is weakening, and the risk of profit-taking repositioning at high levels is rapidly increasing. Revenue for the second quarter reached $96.221 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106%. JPMorgan has raised the target price to $320 and plans to acquire Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. The rising prices of memory chips are putting pressure on future gross margins, and valuation expansion depends on the continued recovery of risk appetite. If the third-quarter guidance results in a gross margin contraction exceeding expectations or actual revenue falls below $108 billion, the market will directly trigger concentrated selling pressure.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？$ETH's volatility has been dragging on longer, and the breakout window is getting closer The market keeps tugging back and forth, consolidating sideways within a range for a long time. It faces resistance and falls after surging, and finds support when dipping. The hourly channel keeps narrowing, and trading volume is gradually shrinking. The battle between bulls and bears has reached its final stage. The longer the sideways movement lasts, the stronger the subsequent market momentum usuallyThe US dollar just posted its largest single-day gain in nearly four weeks, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index briefly surging 0.2%. The underlying logic is straightforward: US PCE inflation data remains at 3.7%, directly raising the market's probability of further Fed rate hikes.
This macro liquidity environment is indeed unfavorable for the crypto market. A strong dollar means the siphoning effect of risk-free returns and dollar assets intensifies, and global capital market leverage is being actively tightened. $BTC was originally grinding back and forth at the critical point between $79,000 and $80,000, but the dollar's sudden surge at this moment adds another heavy stone to the already struggling upward breakout.
Currently, BTC remains near $79,000, supported by continuous net inflows into spot ETFs, institutional accumulation, and forced stop-losses from earlier shorts. The real core battle now lies in whether this strong dollar rebound is just a short-term sentiment purge or a mid-term trend reversal.
The upcoming directional logic is very clear.
If Fed officials continue to send hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting, driving the dollar index and US Treasury yields to surge simultaneously, the difficulty for BTC to firmly hold above the $80,000 mark in the short term will increase exponentially. Meanwhile, high-beta altcoins, which are most sensitive to liquidity pressure, will face even more severe position liquidations.
The authenticity of this $80,000 breakout, the trend of the external dollar index, and changes in macro interest rates are the fundamental variables that truly determine the direction of liquidity survival. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $NVDA Nvidia's earnings once again exceeded expectations. My core conclusion remains: AI computing power demand shows no signs of peaking for now, but the market will increasingly focus on the quality of growth.
Specifically, on the financial side, Q2 revenue was $96.22 billion, up 106% year-over-year and 18% quarter-over-quarter; data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, already accounting for over 90% of total revenue.
The product side also showed no shortages: Blackwell is still shipping rapidly, and the new generation Vera Rubin has already entered the volume ramp-up phase.
Meanwhile, management even expects FY2028 revenue to grow about 70%, significantly higher than the previous market expectation of about 44%.
However, the earnings report is not without concerns: the current gross margin is about 75%, with Q3 guidance down to about 74%, and management expects Q4 may further drop to 71%–72%, mainly due to rising costs of memory and other components.
In summary, this earnings report shows: demand remains insanely strong, Rubin's succession is smooth, and there is no obvious short-term fundamental inflection point; but $NVDA's next core challenge is gradually shifting from "whether GPUs can be sold" to "whether such massive AI CapEx can ultimately generate sufficient revenue and cash flow."
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $SNDK $BTC 1.92 billion ETF funds vs 6.44 billion options expiration: The long-short "meat battle" at the $80,000 threshold
Brothers and sisters, tomorrow at 4 PM, a real "close-quarters battle" is about to begin.
On one side, institutions are pouring in real money; on the other, the derivatives market has set up a net of contracts.
$1.92 billion vs $6.44 billion.
This is not a drill. This is a direct confrontation between longs and shorts at the $80,000 threshold.
🔵 On the long side, the ammunition is ample—
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, marking the highest record in 10 months.
August isn't over yet, but the cumulative net inflow has already surged to $2.72 billion, surpassing April's $1.97 billion, making it the strongest month this year.
BlackRock's IBIT alone swallowed $1.3 billion, accounting for more than two-thirds.
Yesterday (August 26), Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $232.2 million net inflow, maintaining positive inflows for the eighth consecutive trading day.
Institutional funds are characterized by being slow but steady.
They are not speculative capital coming for a quick trade and leaving. They are here to "lay the foundation."
The total assets of Bitcoin ETFs are approaching the $100 billion mark. This is not retail money; this is pension funds, hedge funds, and family office money.
🔴 On the short side, the formation is set—
Tomorrow (August 28) at 4 PM Beijing time, about 81,700 Bitcoin options contracts on Deribit will expire, with a nominal value of $6.44 billion.
These contracts account for nearly 20% of Deribit's total open interest in Bitcoin options.
There are about 44,639 call options and 37,061 put options, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.83.
The real killer move lies in the price distribution—
The Max Pain point is at $68,000.
But the call option chips are highly concentrated at the $75,000 and $80,000 strike prices.
There are $236 million in open call options at the $75,000 level and $157 million at the $80,000 level.
What does this mean?
It means a large number of call option holders are betting that Bitcoin will stand at or above $75K or $80K at expiration. If it doesn't hold, these options become worthless.
Market makers need to perform gamma hedging adjustments before expiration; for every small price movement in the spot market, they must buy or sell Bitcoin to balance risk.
Bitcoin is currently hovering around $78,500-$79,000.
It's stuck between $75K and $80K—not quite up or down, making both longs and shorts uncomfortable.
💥 The showdown of two forces—
Longs' logic: ETF funds keep flowing in, institutions are buying, with IBIT alone holding over 90% of the share. This is "foundation-type" capital, not here to take losses.
Shorts' logic: $6.4 billion options expiration, market makers need to adjust hedges, massive contracts pressuring the key strike prices of $75K and $80K, so the price is likely to be "anchored" at some point.
On-chain data shows long-term holders are starting to take profits around $80K.
Those chips bought for tens of thousands of dollars a few years ago are choosing to "cash out" at this threshold.
Options are expiring, old retail investors are exiting, and ETFs are buying desperately.
Three forces collide at the $80K point.
📊 Two scenario simulations—
Scenario A: ETF buying is strong enough to absorb the selling pressure and hedging demand from options expiration → price stabilizes in the $78K-$80K range, possibly breaking above $80K and continuing upward.
Scenario B: Options expiration triggers concentrated market maker liquidation, combined with long-term holders taking profits → price pulls back to $74K-$76K to find support.
Deribit's Chief Risk Officer said, "This will be an expiration event worth watching."
$1.92 billion is the vote cast by institutional wallets; $6.44 billion is the formation set by derivatives contracts.
The voters say, "I want to keep buying," while those setting the formation say, "You're about done here."
The $80,000 battle is not about who shouts louder—it's about whose funds have more "patience."
Tomorrow at 4 PM, the answer will be revealed.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 A few days ago, I had a physical exam, drew three tubes of blood, and did a full set of genetic testing.
The day the report came out, I suddenly thought of a question:
Whose data is this—my blood type, genetic mutation risks, cholesterol levels—really?
The answer is: not mine.
The hospital keeps a copy, the testing company keeps a copy, and most likely a third party has bought it for research. And as the owner of the data, I don’t even get notified.
This is quite absurd.
But the logic is simple:
data on-chain → you hold the private key → anyone who wants to use your data must get your authorization
Authorization can be paid or exchanged for tokens
Pharmaceutical companies need large-scale real-world data for clinical research, and they are willing to pay
This is not a pipe dream. Japan is already promoting PHR legislation to officially let citizens "own" their health records. The U.S. has several HIPAA-compliant on-chain medical projects running. China is building a national-level health big data platform, also aiming for data element circulation.
Of course, it’s still a long way from real implementation.
But the direction is right. In the next narrative cycle, "data ownership" will most likely become a real topic—and medical data is one of the tracks with the most practical demand.
Compared to those meme coins that rely purely on hype, this at least has real industrial logic supporting it.
What do you think? Would you be willing to put your physical exam data on-chain?
#MedicalData #Web3 #Blockchain
$BTC $ETH $BNB In recent trading days, perhaps the most striking change in the crypto market has not been how much Bitcoin prices have risen, but rather the increasingly synchronized pace of capital inflows. Data shows that in just five US trading days, US spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated over $2 billion worth of BTC, a streak of strength rarely seen in the past ten months. In other words, this is not a sudden wave of buying one day, but a sustained and stable accumulation of positions. What is truly intriguing is not just the absolute value of this number. It should be noted that Bitcoin's current price level is clearly higher than the previous low. Logically, as prices rebound, some funds might choose to wait for deeper corrections before entering the market. But what we see now is that institutional funds have not stopped because prices are no longer "cheap," but have continued to increase exposure at relatively higher levels. This persistence of "buying more as prices rise" often speaks for itself more than a single day's large inflow. Of course, seeing massive influx of Wall Street funds easily triggers an intuition: does the big money possess some information we don't know? This possibility certainly exists, but perhaps there's no need to make the issue too mysterious. Large funds often build positions in months or even years, and they may focus on longer-term allocation logic, rather than short-term fluctuations in the coming days. Therefore, I prefer to understand these ETF capital flows as structural demand signals rather than precise predictions of short-term trends. The difference between the two is actually very important. Continue最近海外社区流传着一种说法，大意是“现在不囤CORE，难道要等涨到3U才醒悟吗”。这句话确实很容易击中人心，因为它精准地踩中了两种情绪：一是害怕错过未来大行情的焦虑，二是担心当前低价一去不复返的紧迫感。但情绪归情绪，市场的事实往往比口号冷静得多。 我们不妨把这句话拆开来看。乐观的一面是，如果BTC-Fi赛道持续升温，像lstBTC质押、SatPay、Core Alpha以及去中心化稳定币这些产品能陆续落地并形成规模，市场愿意为长期故事买单，那么价格中枢逐步上移并非天方夜谭，3U作为一个远期愿景也并非完全不可想象。但这里有一个关键前提：这需要比特币整体处于牛市环境、生态建设大规模铺开、新增资金持续涌入，同时还要在竞争激烈的赛道里不掉队。这几件事必须同时成立，缺一不可。换句话说，3U更像是一个理想化的目标，而不是一个既定事实。 再来看另一层现实。从当前价位到3美元，意味着数倍的涨幅空间，这背后承载的预期极高。一旦项目进展不及预期，或者赛道热度降温，价格长期在低位徘徊也是完全可能的情形。更值得警惕的是，“现在不买以后就买不到便宜筹码”这句话，本质上是一种典型的FOMO话术。加密市场从来不存在On August 19, Bitcoin shorts liquidated $1.37 billion in a single day.
What does that mean? It's almost double the previous record set in July 2021 ($757 million).
Two days later, on August 21, another $739 million was added.
Shorts lost over $2.1 billion in two days.
184,821 people were liquidated. Within the squeeze window, 85% of liquidations were shorts — the largest single-day short squeeze since Glassnode started tracking in 2019.
This is not a rally; this is a "textbook short squeeze."
But what's really interesting is not how many shorts died — but how they died.
Bitcoin surged from $62,000 to over $80,000. Normally, with such a price spike, futures open interest should rise — longs adding positions chasing the rally.
But this time it was different.
BTC-denominated futures open interest actually dropped 11%, from 353,500 BTC before the rebound to 312,600 BTC. By August 25, it fell further to 587,600 BTC, a five-month low.
Funding rates returned to neutral.
Got it?
This wasn’t longs aggressively adding positions — it was shorts being forced to surrender.
Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, bluntly stated in his report "Altitude sickness can wait": historic short squeezes often occur during Bitcoin’s bottoming phase — when bearish positions are overcrowded, short squeezes act as catalysts for trend reversals.
Shorts have been thoroughly cleaned out.
Now the question is — who will go long?
Two signals are conflicting:
Signal one: Institutions are entering.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, the largest single-week inflow since October 2025. Total inflows since August reached $2.72 billion. Five consecutive trading days of net inflows, with no outflows.
Signal two: Retail leverage is retreating.
Futures open interest dropped to a five-month low. Perpetual contract funding rates remain below 10%, with long positions only moderate. Spot prices are rising, but leverage is not following.
This is a classic "spot-driven rebound" — institutions are buying spot, but retail is hesitant to leverage up.
A bigger variable comes the day after tomorrow.
On August 28 (Friday), Deribit will see about $6.44 billion in Bitcoin options expire. Call options are heavily concentrated at $75,000 and $80,000 strike prices. But the biggest pain point is at $68,000.
In plain language:
Those who bought $80,000 call options are desperately trying to push the price up.
Market makers, to avoid losses, are desperately trying to push the price down.
This tug-of-war will be decided on Friday.
$2.1 billion in short corpses have paved the way to $80,000.
But how far this path goes — depends not on how much more shorts can lose, but on how much longs are willing to buy.
ETFs are buying, but is it enough to absorb the selling pressure at the top?
After options expiry, when market makers unwind their hedges, where will the price go?
K33 says the technical signal this time — reclaiming the 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages within 4 days — has only happened three times historically: October 2015, April 2020, and October 2023. Each time marked the start of a bull market.
But Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan also cautions: as the global financial system is increasingly used as a geopolitical tool, a neutral monetary network not tied to any single country will become increasingly valuable.
All true.
But bull markets aren’t built on short corpses — they’re built on real money buying in.
Shorts are all dead.
Next, it’s up to the longs.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 美股盘面先给了个冷脸：QQQ从734一路滑到706附近，短线均线集体走软，这周英伟达财报和PCE数据就像两道闸门，市场在等一个方向。 你有没有发现，最近几天币圈像是被一根看不见的绳子牵着走？ 先说QQQ。它不只是数字跌了，更重要的是它反映了资金对"高估值+高利率"组合的敏感。只要长端收益率还在高位，科技股就容易被压估值，这种压力会通过BTC的风险偏好传导到整个加密市场。技术面上，710是短期分水岭，放量收回去才算稳，跌破700就要小心加速下探。 再看几个山寨的细节，信号其实很微妙： - BICO上Upbit现货对，首轮流动性确实被激活了，但热度一退就进入高换手震荡。缩量企稳说明有人接，但只有放量突破整理区，才有真正的趋势空间。 - BEAT解锁后的抛压还没完全消化，这波反弹更多是超跌修复。结构没反转，反弹缩量的话，小心供应继续松动。 - OKB还在等X Layer的生态故事兑现，箱体突破必须配量，不然容易假动作。 - HYPE离历史高位不远，协议收入和合规预期是底气，但29号那波解锁是个明牌风险，得盯紧。 - TRUMP在"新币传闻被否"之后，事件风险反而更大了，Meme属性决定高位波$BTC The Bank of Korea suddenly raised interest rates again!
The benchmark rate has been raised to 3.00%.
This is the second rate hike within two months!
The Korean won has surged more than 12% since June.
Asian liquidity is starting to show new variables!
The Bank of Korea raised interest rates again, increasing the benchmark rate to 3.00%. This is the second tightening within two months after more than three years without a rate hike. After the decision was announced, the won continued to strengthen, rising about 0.56% intraday. The Bank of Korea also expects GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026, but inflation remains above the 2% target.
What’s most worth watching this time is the global policy divergence. The market is trading on further easing in the U.S., but Korea has already raised rates again due to growth, exchange rate, and inflation pressures. Asian funding costs are starting to move in a different direction.
While the U.S. is discussing when to ease, Korea has already hit the brakes twice in a row.
Global liquidity is not universally easing; who turns first next will be the real big variable for risk assets!$BTC The Bank of Korea suddenly raised interest rates again!
The benchmark rate has been raised to 3.00%.
This is the second rate hike within two months!
The Korean won has surged more than 12% since June.
Asian liquidity is starting to show new variables!
The Bank of Korea raised interest rates again, increasing the benchmark rate to 3.00%. This is the second tightening within two months after more than three years without a rate hike. After the decision was announced, the won continued to strengthen, rising about 0.56% intraday. The Bank of Korea also expects GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026, but inflation remains above the 2% target.
What’s most worth watching this time is the global policy divergence. The market is trading on further easing in the U.S., but Korea has already raised rates again due to growth, exchange rate, and inflation pressures. Asian funding costs are starting to move in a different direction.
While the U.S. is discussing when to ease, Korea has already hit the brakes twice in a row.
Global liquidity is not universally easing; who turns first next will be the real big variable for risk assets!NVIDIA's earnings report is truly explosive:
Q2 revenue reached $96.2 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, up 106%;
Wall Street expected about $92.2 billion, so it was left far behind.
Q3 guidance is $108 billion, with a 2% margin of error, also higher than the market's expectation of about $104 billion. Data center revenue hit $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, accounting for 90% of the company's total revenue.
But the strangest thing isn't the numbers, it's what happened after hours.
When the earnings were released, the stock price initially dropped about 1% to 2%.
After the earnings call, it bounced back, rising about 4% to 5% in after-hours trading.
This has happened several times recently: earnings beat expectations, but the stock's initial reaction is often weak—not because the numbers are bad, but because expectations have already been priced in too heavily.
There were two more solid confirmations on the same day.
Amazon officially announced it will purchase another 2 million GPUs from NVIDIA, deploying them to AWS, covering 2027 to 2028; NVIDIA's CFO said that the capital expenditure of the five major hyperscale cloud providers is close to $800 billion this year and could reach $1.3 trillion by 2027.
Demand is still increasing; it's not that no one is buying chips.
You see, this is the current contradiction: the financials look better and better, but the stock price finds it harder and harder to surge just by "beating expectations."
So, is NVIDIA's earnings report fully priced in as good news, or is the pullback an opportunity for people to get in? $NVDA #BTC surges then pulls back, options expiry amplifies the $80,000 level battle
This round of $BTC rebound is no longer just retail chasing the rally.
Over the past week, BTC quickly rose from around $62,000, once breaking through $81,000, with a 7-day gain exceeding 23%. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF continues to attract capital, with recent weekly net inflows close to $1.9 billion, and cumulative net inflows in August already exceeding $3 billion. Institutional funds have returned to the market, becoming an important support for this rally.
But notably, this rise has not fully evolved into the extreme leverage-driven market seen before.
As BTC surged above $80,000, futures open interest actually declined, currently below 700,000 BTC. In other words, part of the momentum for this rise comes from short covering and spot capital absorption, rather than a large amount of new leverage driving it.
What really needs attention is:
$80,000 is no longer just a simple technical resistance level.
It also gathers profit-taking, trapped positions, options positions, and market sentiment.
More importantly, on August 28, about 81,700 BTC options will expire, with a notional value of approximately $6.44 billion, about 44,639 Calls and 37,061 Puts, with a Put/Call Ratio of about 0.83. Such a large-scale options expiry may further amplify price volatility around the $75,000—$80,000 range. Either keep holding the gains or enjoy the show fully
Fresh market data is here, and the two biggest stars in the crypto world are putting on a strong performance today: BTC is oscillating around 78785, while ETH is strengthening in sync, surging to 2494. The slight dip in US stocks doesn't matter; Nvidia single-handedly held the market up, with earnings far exceeding expectations, pushing the after-hours session up over 4%.
The macro picture has suddenly shifted. PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, month-over-month 0.2%, both exceeding expectations, confirming inflation stickiness once again. So the most critical variable this week falls on Wash's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. CME data shows that maintaining rates in September is still the baseline scenario, but with inflation data this hot, the pricing for rate hikes stubbornly refuses to fully retreat—it's like the person left but the shoes remain at the door.
Breaking down Nvidia's earnings: Q2 revenue $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year; data center revenue $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year; EPS $2.22, up 120% year-over-year. The sustainability of AI demand has now been truly validated with real money, and order visibility has significantly improved. But don't get ahead of yourself—the pre-market 4%+ gain started to be digested during the session, indicating the market had already priced in part of the earnings ahead of time, essentially selling the good news with the left hand and realizing expectations with the right.
On the geopolitical front, Trump talked about Iran returning to the negotiating table: no timetable, not in a hurry at all. Since he's not in a rush, the market's expectations for geopolitical easing have cooled by half.
Finally, let's talk about the main event. BTC is currently at 78785, with heavy short liquidation pressure gathering between 79500 and 80000. Once it breaks 80,000, shorts will be squeezed and queued for takeoff; on the downside, heavy long liquidation is concentrated between 76500 and 78000. If it falls below 78000, leveraged longs will have to accelerate their exit. Both sides are minefields—one wrong move by BTC and it's lights out and instant noodles time.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC $QQQ
In July, during a live stream discussing Bitcoin and Nasdaq exchange rate conversion, I shared a chart showing the long-term comparison of the BTCUSD/NAS100 exchange rate.
1.
At that time, BTCUSD/NAS100 was around 2, now it is around 3.
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin's exchange rate dropped by 72%.
At the beginning of July, in this bear market cycle, Bitcoin has already fallen 65% relative to the Nasdaq.
2.
This chart is very interesting. Friends familiar with Bitcoin cycles can clearly see that the 4-year cycle is still valid.
From 2021 to 2025, the exchange rate peaks are all near 5.
The recent bull market's exchange rate peak did not break much higher.
Also, Bitcoin's exchange rate drop in each cycle is decreasing, with smaller fluctuations.
3.
Based on these signs, I predicted that in July and August the exchange rate would start to rebound, the probability of Bitcoin bottoming out would greatly increase, and there would be a relatively smooth upward trend.
Bitcoin already showed signs of a bottom reversal, so I increased my dollar-cost averaging and actively tried bottom-side long positions on Bitcoin.
Looking back now, all those predictions came true.
If you don't understand the capital flows in various markets or the complex institutional data, just simply look at this Bitcoin exchange rate chart, and you can basically understand the current position of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq. BTC's current rally is driven by "short squeeze ignition + ETF/spot real capital relay," and it currently looks more like a phase recovery rather than a top; however, it has entered a critical supply testing phase.
The current focus is on three levels:
Around 70.4K: Core defense/short-term holder cost zone; holding this means the overall bullish structure remains intact.
80–83K: First layer of supply absorption test.
83–86K: The real battleground between bulls and bears, also a resonance pressure zone involving multiple on-chain costs, chip supply, order books, and derivatives structures.
Next, don't guess the top; watch the capital:
ETF continues inflow + Spot CVD/large buy orders strong + sell walls gradually eaten away + OI/Funding not overheated → leans toward a genuine breakout.
Price surges, but spot weakens + sell walls increase + OI/Funding spikes → beware of false breakout and phase top.
Current judgment: 🟡 Slightly bullish, testing supply rather than confirming a top. Only a firm hold and absorption at 83–86K will mean further upside potential is unlocked.
Personal research and sharing, not investment advice #JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk, AI storage valuation under renewed scrutiny
"Jane Street holds over 5% of SanDisk_The $9 billion heavy position behind the AI storage layout"
Quant giant Jane Street just disclosed a blockbuster filing: increasing its stake in SanDisk more than fivefold, directly surpassing the 5% takeover threshold, holding a full $9 billion in chips.
Besides large-cap index funds, SanDisk has surged to become its largest single stock holding, leaving Apple and Nvidia far behind.
Many think SanDisk still sells ordinary USB drives, but after its independent listing, it has completely transformed into AI data center high-bandwidth storage.
The latest quarterly gross margin soared from just over 20% to 85%, and it signed a guaranteed minimum four-year contract worth over $93 billion with cloud giants.
Quant firms hold spot positions to market-make and hedge on exchange-traded options, earning liquidity spreads while positioning themselves at the core bottleneck of AI computing power. $BTC $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level BTC is just one step away from $80,000, and I am more inclined to believe it can break through this time
BTC is currently around $78,800, up 13.7% in the past 7 days, about 1.5% away from $80,000.
I am currently bullish, not because "$80,000 will definitely rise," but because the conditions for a breakout are gradually maturing.
First, $80,000 itself is the most direct short-term watershed. On August 28, about $6.44 billion in BTC options will expire, with a call/put nominal amount ratio of about 0.83, and a large number of options concentrated near $75,000 and $80,000, meaning the price has entered a highly sensitive zone.
What’s really interesting is: once BTC effectively breaks through $80,000, market makers’ hedging may further amplify upward volatility; conversely, if it falls below $75,000, it could trigger deleveraging.
Currently, the total market capitalization is about $2.65 trillion, still up 12.16% over 7 days, and BTC’s market dominance has risen from 58.81% to 59.65%, indicating this rally is still BTC-led.
Although derivatives open interest has risen 9.24% in the past 7 days and funding rates remain positive, there is no extreme leverage buildup. For me, this is healthier than "price surging + leverage crazily increasing."
So my judgment is very clear:
If $75,000 holds, I remain bullish; once $80,000 is firmly held, the market may shift from a consolidation breakout to acceleration.
What I’m most focused on next is not "whether it will hit $80,000," but:
After BTC breaks through $80,000, can it turn that into real support? $BTC $BICO
1. Chips are highly concentrated, with the top 100 wallets holding 96.58% of the chips; large whale holders control the vast majority of the coins, exerting strong market control.
2. Net capital outflow during the rally: The candlestick shows a big rise, but large and extra-large orders are selling, only small retail orders are entering to take over, a typical pattern of a pump-and-dump.
3. The token has no profit-sharing mechanism; project profits are not distributed to token holders; historically, large holders transfer coins to exchanges at highs to sell, which tends to suppress upward potential.
4. The market cap is very small, the market fluctuates wildly, and after a sharp rise, a rapid correction can occur at any time.
Currently, bulls and bears are fiercely battling; the bullish candlestick looks good, but the capital flow does not support a sustained rally.
Do not be fooled by short-term gains; chasing highs carries great risk. This is a personal view to see if it can hold above the 0.0326 high tonight. This time, the US sanctions on Iran have shifted from "sanctioning Iran" to "sanctioning those who do business with Iran."
New round of measures implemented:
Cryptocurrency, gold, technology, aviation, shipping—all are included.
More importantly, the US has started directly pressuring third countries:
Continuing financial and economic ties with Iran may face secondary sanctions or even be cut off from the US financial system.
Chinese companies and Asian trade networks have already appeared on the list.
But today's reaction in crude oil is quite unusual.
Normally, with sanctions escalating and supply risks rising, oil prices should go up.
Instead, Brent crude fell 3.9% yesterday and continued to drop to around $86 today.
The market seems to be starting to bet that:
The US is not prepared to continue relying on bombing to solve the Hormuz issue.
Next, it will rely on sanctions and negotiations to force Iran to hand over the shipping lanes.
Should I bottom-fish some VOO tonight 🤔 $BTC's real critical point
I think it's next Tuesday
These days, no matter how BTC fluctuates around $80,000, I think that's not the most important.
I'm now more focused on next Tuesday, September 1st.
On that day, the US will release the August ISM Manufacturing PMI. Last month's data surged to 55.6, showing economic resilience much stronger than market expectations.
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest $BTC failed to break through 80,000 in the past two days. On August 25, it peaked at $81,238, then quickly fell back to around 79,000 and oscillated. 78K is support, while 80K-81K is strong resistance.
There are two reasons for the pullback:
First, the short squeeze fuel has run out. This rally from 63,000 to 81,000 saw about $3 billion in short positions liquidated within two days. Once the forced liquidation-driven violent surge ends, mechanical buying stops, and profit-taking follows.
Second, the PCE data dampened the bulls' enthusiasm. July's PCE year-over-year was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The market priced in a 38% chance of a rate hike in September. The dollar surged to an eight-day high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield returned to 4.667%, hitting risk assets first.
For the shorts, now is the best window to escape.
The logic is straightforward: 80K-81K is a dense trading resistance zone, so every rebound near it is a golden opportunity to reduce positions; the fear and greed index is still at 71 in the greed zone, meaning sentiment hasn't been fully wiped out, and a rebound could happen anytime. Don't expect it to plunge straight to 50,000.
If 78K is truly broken on the daily chart, concentrated long leverage liquidations below will trigger a chain of forced liquidations, causing panic selling, and then you might be reluctant to close your positions.
Quietly closing short positions in the 79,000-81,000 resistance zone to lock in profits is much more reliable than betting on a one-sided move. This bottom was ground out, not smashed down—the best outcome for shorts is to exit during the consolidation, not to wait for a one-sided move and find themselves deeply trapped halfway up the mountain.The real Jackson Hole debate may not be about rate cuts.
Treasury Secretary Bessent wants lower long-term yields.
But Warsh has argued for letting markets play a bigger role in determining the cost of long-term money.
That creates a bigger question:
Who is really setting the cost of capital — policymakers or the bond market?
Bitcoin may be one of the clearest places to watch the answer.PCE exceeds expectations + Nvidia no surprise
The market holds its breath waiting for Wash's speech tomorrow night
Last night, the market's two most watched events both had results:
· PCE inflation data: year-on-year 3.7%, unchanged from last month, higher than the expected 3.6%. The probability of a rate hike in September rose to 38%, while expectations for a rate cut cooled down.
· Nvidia earnings report: barely met expectations, but no surprise beat.
The negative news has been partially digested by the market, but the US Treasury yield remains steady at 4.66%, and the US dollar index rebounded to 99.17, continuing to exert pressure on crypto prices.
Signals from on-chain capital flow
BTC previously surged above 81,000 but then faced resistance and fell back, currently oscillating around 78,600.
On-chain data reveals concerns:
· When the price hit the 81,000 high, long-term holders were continuously taking profits and cashing out
· US spot ETF buying momentum is weak, Coinbase trading premium remains negative
· Short-term new buying cannot temporarily absorb the selling pressure emerging at high levels
Key price levels reference
Support below:
· 77,000-77,500: first support zone
· 76,000: key strong support
· 73,500: mid-term trend watershed in this rally. If the price later tests above this level, it is a good opportunity for phased accumulation
From a long-term perspective, unless a major black swan event occurs, prices below 70,000 are unlikely to be seen again.
Resistance above:
· 81,500-82,500: resistance zone. Only by stabilizing above this range can bulls open a new upward space
Focus tomorrow night: Wash's speech
All remaining uncertainties this week are concentrated on the Fed Chair Wash's speech tomorrow night.
Dovish → market sees a short-term rebound
Hawkish → further drives price correction
Based on the current market environment, this speech is unlikely to provide very clear policy signals.
Direction undecided, better to wait for the shoe to drop before taking action.
$BTC
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 A true bull market is never a continuous upward trend, but rather an upward trend, pullbacks, and more rises, constantly washing out those who lack patience. BTC still stands at the strongest position in the entire market, but more and more funds are flowing into ETH, SOL, SUI, and OKB, indicating the market is entering the second round of capital rotation. Many people ask if you can still chase now. My answer is: you can participate, but don't go all in chasing highs. The more excited you are, the more you should prioritize position management. Any 10% to 15% pullback These could become the starting point for the next round of gains, rather than the end of the bull market. Next, I will focus on three signals: first, whether BTC will continue to break previous highs with increased volume; second, whether ETH will continue to outperform BTC; third, whether on-chain activity of SOL and SUI will continue to rise. As long as these three signals are not broken, the bull market structure will remain healthy. My strategy is simple: keep holding BTC and ETH in core positions, set up growth positions in SOL, SUI, OKB, take profits in batches after each round of gains, and take profits in batches on every pullback. Always keep yourself ammunition ready The market rewards never the most accurate predictions, but the best discipline enforcers. In the second half of a bull market, controlling greed and preserving profits is more important than coin selection. Only by making it to the end can #BTC #ETH #SOL #SUI #OKB #比特币 #以太坊 #欧意星球 #牛市 #加密货币 @BTC dynamics @ETH ecosystem @SOLANA Chinese @SUI Chinese @OKX ChineseNow guessing whether the next round of the Bitcoin ecosystem will be BRC20, Runes, or Alkanes is really unpredictable.
Each round the hotspots change.
In the last round, everyone thought inscriptions were everything, then Runes came along, and surely there will be new things after that.
Those things that can keep being used no matter how the hotspots change.
Wallets, indexes, and trading markets hold that kind of position.
UniSat is now taking the path of supporting multiple protocols, and I’m starting to understand it more and more.
No need to bet on who will win, just set the table first.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 A quick chat about where BTC is headed next
First, the market situation: BTC is pacing back and forth around 78785, unable to rise or fall, just grinding. ETH is more promising, strengthening alongside and touching 2494. US stocks closed slightly down, but Nvidia alone held the market up, with earnings far exceeding expectations, jumping over 4% in after-hours trading.
Inflation isn't looking good: PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, month-over-month at 0.2%, both above expectations. This inflation stickiness is like chewing gum—it just won’t let go. So what Wash said at Jackson Hole on Friday is the biggest suspense this week. CME data shows the baseline scenario is to hold steady in September, but with data this hot, the "rate hike" drama is still waiting in the wings, not fully off the table.
Breaking down Nvidia’s report: Q2 revenue $96.2 billion, +106% year-over-year; data center $89 billion, +117% year-over-year; EPS $2.22, +120% year-over-year. Translation: AI demand isn’t just hype, it’s real money lining up, with order visibility maxed out. But don’t get too excited—after a 4%+ pre-market jump, the market started digesting, meaning some expectations were already priced in before the report.
On geopolitics, Trump mentioned Iran returning to the negotiating table: no timetable, I’m not in a hurry. Well, if he’s not in a hurry, the market’s hopes for easing have cooled off halfway.
Finally, the main event. BTC is now at 78785, surrounded by minefields: above, from 79500 to 80000 there’s a large cluster of short liquidation orders; if it breaks 80,000, shorts will have to queue up like a meat sandwich. Below, from 76500 to 78000 is a dense area of long liquidations; if it falls below 78000, leveraged longs will accelerate their liquidation. Fire above, fire below, BTC is walking a tightrope in the middle.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $BTC $ETH $SOL Structural Impact of ARB and OP Token Unlocks, Treasury Allocation, and DAO Governance Differences on the Ecosystem
1. Differences in Token Unlocking Pace: Different Structures of Continuous Selling Pressure
ARB Unlock Characteristics
1. Total supply fixed at 1 billion tokens, no new inflation; team and investor shares about 44.47%; monthly fixed unlock of 92.65 million ARB tokens; unlock period continues until March 2027, representing stable and predictable continuous selling pressure.
2. Treasury holds over 420 million ARB tokens; the foundation's operational account continuously releases tokens for ecosystem subsidies and team expenses; large treasury token transfers to secondary markets frequently occur on-chain, further amplifying circulating supply pressure.
3. Currently, ARB protocol fees are retained in ETH form; there is no token buyback, burn, or fee dividend mechanism; network revenue cannot offset unlock dilution; the token lacks value capture channels, resulting in long-term selling pressure suppressing token valuation and indirectly affecting the market purchasing power of ecosystem incentive budgets.
OP Unlock Characteristics
1. Unlock pace is more gradual and subject to strong manual intervention; early airdrop accounts for 19%, ecosystem fund 25%; foundation allocations decrease annually (15% in year 2, 10% in year 3, 4% in year 4); no large fixed monthly cliff unlock like ARB.
2. In August 2026, the core team, through governance voting, transferred 547 million OP tokens originally reserved for user airdrops (12.7% of total supply, 24% of circulating supply) to a strategic ecosystem fund controlled by the foundation, artificially changing the token distribution path The hottest topic in the market today has to be $xNVDA Nvidia's explosive earnings report released early this morning.
Q2 revenue hit $96.2 billion, more than doubling year-over-year by 106%, with adjusted EPS of $2.22, all surpassing expectations. Even more aggressively, management directly issued guidance for 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, while the market had only dared to expect 45%. After hours, Nvidia's stock jumped from down 3% to up 5%, igniting the entire AI chain.
What does this mean for crypto? Risk appetite was instantly ignited. You can see Hyperliquid's $HYPE rose nearly 3% against the trend today, and high-beta assets like SOL also strengthened, indicating capital is flowing into higher-risk assets.
The logic is simple: Nvidia represents the real demand for AI computing power, and the AI narrative has always been the easiest story to tell in crypto. Capital sentiment is contagious. Plus, the ETH spot ETF set a record inflow of $307 million on the same day, clearly warming on-chain risk appetite.
My reminder is about $HYPE — it’s a relatively elastic asset in this cycle but also highly volatile. Today's rise doesn't necessarily mean it has good value; position management comes first.
The core conclusion today is that earnings reports from major US stocks can directly spill over into crypto. This is the cross-market linkage we will increasingly have to get used to by 2026. To ride this wave of sentiment, pick high-beta assets but don’t get carried away. Waiting for a pullback is more respectable than chasing highs; profits are made by waiting, not chasing. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $ETH Long-term value: Optimists value its core role in on-chain settlement, betting on incremental demand driven by tokenization and AI; cautious observers believe that regulatory implementation only removes uncertainty, and the complexity of the narrative limits its potential to become a reserve currency.
· Valuation references: Institutions provide different dimensional benchmarks: cash flow floor models (bear market bottom support), network effect models (amplifying ecosystem activity), and macro adaptation mechanisms.
· Current status: Recently, ETH has shown relative strength, but technical indicators have also entered overbought territory. Whether the short-term rally can continue largely depends on whether ETF capital inflows can maintain high levels.
Essentially, Ethereum's value lies at the intersection of "on-chain financial infrastructure" and "potential macro hedge asset." The current price (around $2,500) is far below optimistic institutional targets, but the core disagreement about its valuation logic—whether it is a "network asset" or "digital gold"—remains unresolved.Báo cáo tài chính mới nhất của $NVDA (Nvidia) tiếp tục tạo ra một cực tích cực trên quy mô toàn cầu, khẳng định sức mạnh độc tôn của lão chip AI trong công nghệ kỷ nguyên. Dưới đây là phân tích chi tiết về số tăng trưởng, nguyên nhân biến động và hoạt động lan tỏa của $NVDA : 1. Phân tích chi tiết sự tăng trưởng kỷ lục của $NVDA Doanh thu thăng nổ theo chiều dọc: $NVDA ghi nhận doanh thu quý vừa qua đạt kỷ lục 96,2 tỷ USD , tăng trưởng phi mã 106% so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Riêng mảng Trung tâm $BTC ETF has been aggressively bought for 7 consecutive days!
This is a streak of gains not seen for over three months.
Institutional spot demand continues to increase!
But the continuous rise is making the short-term market increasingly crowded.
This week, we should be wary of an active shakeout!
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with about $314 million entering on the latest single day shown in the chart. More importantly, the ETF asset size and BTC price have risen rapidly almost in sync, indicating that this rally is indeed supported by spot capital.
However, 7 consecutive days of net inflows is already very strong, and BTC has quickly surged from a low to nearly 80K, causing short-term profit-taking and leverage to accumulate. Even if the overall trend is bullish, it’s entirely possible to first see a downward shakeout to clear some chasing positions before choosing a new direction.
The ETF is responsible for steadily building a stronger base, while the market is responsible for aggressively cleaning out leverage.
If a pullback happens and spot quickly absorbs it, that would actually be the strongest signal of this rally!$BTC short-term trends are mainly driven by macro factors rather than the halving narrative.
· Core macro drivers: The recent breakthrough of $80,000 was mainly due to the US debt reaching $40 trillion, causing market concerns about fiat currency depreciation ("currency devaluation trade"), combined with a weakening dollar and nearly $2 billion net inflow into ETFs over 7 days.
· Risks and high volatility: BTC is highly correlated with AI tech stocks (such as Nvidia), and tends to fall in sync when risk appetite wanes; short-term technical indicators show overbought conditions, with around $83,000 being the key resistance to open up further upside.
Summary: Evolution of value anchors
· Long-term value: Evolving from the "digital gold" narrative to a strategic reserve asset on national and institutional balance sheets.
· Valuation references: Institutions provide different value benchmarks: production cost anchor ($60k-$95k), relative value anchor (26% undervalued relative to gold), grand narrative anchor ($224k-$300k).
· Cycle assessment: The four-year cycle remains intact, but institutional participation has made volatility milder than previous bear markets, with stronger bottom support.
Essentially, Bitcoin's value is in a validation phase transitioning from a "high-risk speculative asset" to a "macro hedge asset." The current price (around $78,000) is below production cost valuation but above bottom support, and is strongly influenced by macro sentiment.Gold holding near $4,700 after $6.38B entered global physical gold ETFs last week is more than a defensive signal. With Citi pointing to futures-led momentum while Asian physical demand remains soft, the move appears increasingly shaped by institutional allocation rather than broad end-user demand.
BTC staying near its rebound highs adds a useful test: parallel strength in gold and spot BTC ETF flows would suggest investors are expanding non-sovereign exposure, not simply rotating into safety. Divergence would reveal a clearer preference between defense and higher beta. Not advice, just analysis.
#GoldVsBTCETFFlows$BTC: Resilience Amid Divergence
BTC encountered profit-taking near its historical highs, with a pullback exceeding 23% considered normal volatility. The key point is that spot ETFs have seen strong inflows for 7 consecutive days, reaching $314 million in a single day on Tuesday, indicating that traditional financial institutions are accelerating their accumulation during the pullback.
On-chain data further confirms this: short-term holders (STH) are selling, but long-term holders (LTH) continue to accumulate, absorbing supply. As long as the price remains above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (around $58,000), this is a healthy "mid-air refuel" rather than a trend reversal. The real risk lies in a slowdown of ETF inflows, not the price pullback itself.
$ETH: Greater Catch-up Potential than Pullback Risk
ETH has not formed a top structure; the current retracement to the 61.8% Fibonacci support is a standard "pullback confirmation" after breaking the long-term downtrend line. Compared to BTC, ETH's gains have lagged significantly, and BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) is near its peak. Once ETH confirms support, capital may rotate from BTC to ETH, triggering a stronger catch-up rally.
Conclusion
This is not a moment of panic. Large capital is stepping in, and the technicals are correcting overbought conditions. As long as BTC holds the $58,000 support and ETH holds the key Fibonacci level, the pullback is a right-side entry opportunity. Focus on the sustainability of ETF capital flows.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 , surged 5% in after-hours trading.
Continuously laying out buying $xSMH $DRAM
Jensen Huang said, "AI has reached a turning point. It is doing useful work. Its token is productive and profitable. Now, computing power is income.
I also believe the AI sector has not faded, and strong profitability will gradually nourish the entire industry.
The current situation isn't that demand is lacking, but that production capacity is not keeping up. This has been painful throughout the entire semiconductor cycle history.
The Q3 gross margin guidance is 74%, and it clearly states that the fourth quarter will further bottom to the 71%-72% range, mainly due to rising memory prices. Therefore, I think this will benefit the DRAM #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest This trade made me notice $SKHY's habit of "falling with the market but not rising with it." Opened long at 152.84, now at 162.96. When the market rises, it moves sluggishly; when the market falls, it’s the first to drop.
The 6% gain this time was because the market happened to stabilize for a few days. Once the environment changes, it will most likely return to the "gradual decline mode."
All positions closed. This trade confirmed: going long must be timed with a market window that supports it; looking at its own structure alone is not enough. Next time, wait for the market weekly confirmation before touching it. $BTC $ETH BTC is now a bit like an exam to get to the last big question.
The previous multiple-choice questions were completed with the help of the bears.
Now, it's finally the real payer's turn to write the answer.
After BTC surged to $80,000 and then fell, I actually felt that the most awkward thing now wasn't the bulls' momentum, but that the "momentum" behind this rally was suddenly about to change shifts.
The earlier market segment is actually easy to understand: large-scale short squeezes pushed BTC all the way up, and many who originally bet on it falling ended up being the most active buyers. Sounds a bit surreal: the group least optimistic about BTC actually bought up to $80,000 first.
But here's the problem: short squeezes can't keep looping endlessly. Once short positions are mostly flat, if the price rises further, you can't always rely on "short sellers continuing to contribute purchasing power." #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest A Calm Perspective on Earnings Season: Waiting for a Worthwhile Entry Point
NVIDIA is reporting earnings tonight, and honestly, I feel quite calm.
The market is fixated on the single variable of "whether it beats expectations," but what concerns me more is: what happens after the beat? The sharp drop in July and the quick recovery during August's earnings season have essentially priced in a lot of optimism in advance. Even if the data is impressive, after the short-term price spike, the stock will most likely return to the path of chip exchange and valuation digestion.
I’m also hoping for a big bullish candle from NVIDIA that can pull SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix out of the mud—storage stocks have been frustrating, falling but not rising. But looking rationally, the overall rhythm of the chip sector can no longer be reversed by a single earnings report. The more likely scenario going forward is: no deep drops, no strong rallies, range-bound oscillation, alternating small gains and losses, with trading friction noticeably increasing.
In this market environment, my strategy is summed up in four words: move less, watch more. Frequent trading tends to erode principal.
Regarding timing, I lean toward a significant sell-off in mid to late September that will clear out the loosened chips after the rebound. Then, in October to November, if AI demand does not materially deteriorate, valuation expansion will have a foundation after repeated consolidation at low levels.
The truly comfortable buying points often appear when most people lose patience. For now, I choose to keep my hands in my pockets. Patience is the only cost right now.Why does the US still need to address crypto custody issues when Bitcoin ETFs already exist? Because ETFs address "how to buy," while custody rules address "who can legally safeguard the assets on behalf of clients after purchase." 1. Institutions buying crypto is not just about buying Ordinary investors can buy and put them in their wallets, but funds, banks, brokers, and RIA investment advisors are different. They manage assets for clients and must solve issues such as who holds custody, how to segregate assets, and who is responsible if private keys go wrong. If the rules are unclear, even large institutions wanting to enter will face compliance restrictions. 2. Custody rules are an important infrastructure for institutions entering the market. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has been pushing for a clearer crypto regulatory framework, with custody being a key component. Simply put: ETFs solve "you can buy." Custody rules solve "who can help you keep them." If this rule becomes clearer, banks, brokerages, asset management companies, and investment advisors will face much fewer compliance barriers when entering crypto. 3. What insights do investors have for many judge whether crypto is mainstreamly accepted, focusing only on ETF flow and $BTC price. But true institutionalization also includes infrastructure such as trading, clearing, custody, accounting, and compliance. ETFs essentially open the door to buying, while the custody rules pave the way for the door to follow. So what's truly worth watching in the next phase of crypto is not just that