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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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8万关口的三天“危险期”:明天下午4点,64亿美元期权到期,你的仓位扛得住吗? 兄弟们,说个事。 你现在手上的仓位,可能在未来48小时里经历一次“压力测试”。 明天(8月28日)下午4点(北京时间),Deribit上有64.4亿美元的比特币期权要集中到期。 这不是小数目。这批合约占了Deribit比特币期权未平仓总量的接近20%。 更关键的是——BTC刚从62,000美元区间暴力拉涨到80,000美元以上,大量看涨期权从“废纸”变成了“真金白银”。 做市商要在这两天疯狂调仓对冲,市场会变得极其敏感。 先看现状:BTC卡在哪儿了? 今天早上,BTC在78,500-79,000美元区间震荡。 本周高点摸到81,272美元,但没站稳,又掉下来了。 上方阻力:81,000-83,000美元(50周均线压制区域) 下方支撑:74,000-76,000美元 75,000美元和80,000美元这两个价位尤其关键——看涨期权未平仓合约分别集中了约2.36亿美元和1.57亿美元。 如果有效突破83,000,可能打开85,000-90,000的空间。但如果撑不住,75,000以下也不是没可能。 期权到期前后24-48小时,做市商的对冲调整可能引发±5-10% 的剧烈波动。 那你的仓位该怎么摆?我给你三套方案,自己对号入座: 🟢 空仓/轻仓 → 观望至期权到期后,支撑位附近分批建仓 别在衍生品到期前追高。做市商要平仓、要调delta,价格可能被来回拉扯。你追进去,容易被“双杀”。等尘埃落定再说。 🟡 半仓 → 在78K-80K区域部分止盈,保留核心仓位 这一轮上涨的核心驱动力是“空头挤压”——8月19日单日爆仓13.7亿美元空头,接近2021年纪录的两倍。空头被清完之后,上涨的燃料还能烧多久?锁定一部分利润,留足子弹应对回调,不丢人。 🔴 重仓/合约 → 严格设置止损,降低杠杆 别跟我讲“信仰”。期权到期可能引发剧烈波动,你的信仰扛不住10%的振幅。把杠杆降下来,把止损挂上去。活过这三天,比什么都重要。 但别慌,说个中期的事。 K33和Bitwise的分析师认为,这次历史级的空头挤压,加上杠杆被重置、美国财政部回购长期国债带来的宏观变化,可能预示着加密市场正在转向一轮更广泛的“牛市重置”。 比特币4天内重新站上了50日、100日、200日及200周均线——速度快于此前的所有周期。 历史上类似的情况只出现过三次:2015年10月、2020年4月、2023年10月——都接近周期性牛市的起点。 短期的期权扰动不改中期趋势,但节奏比方向更重要。 $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC冲高回落,期权到期放大关口博弈
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
On August 19, Bitcoin shorts liquidated $1.37 billion in a single day. What does that mean? It's almost double the previous record set in July 2021 ($757 million). Two days later, on August 21, another $739 million was added. Shorts lost over $2.1 billion in two days. 184,821 people were liquidated. Within the squeeze window, 85% of liquidations were shorts — the largest single-day short squeeze since Glassnode started tracking in 2019. This is not a rally; this is a "textbook short squeeze." But what's really interesting is not how many shorts died — but how they died. Bitcoin surged from $62,000 to over $80,000. Normally, with such a price spike, futures open interest should rise — longs adding positions chasing the rally. But this time it was different. BTC-denominated futures open interest actually dropped 11%, from 353,500 BTC before the rebound to 312,600 BTC. By August 25, it fell further to 587,600 BTC, a five-month low. Funding rates returned to neutral. Got it? This wasn’t longs aggressively adding positions — it was shorts being forced to surrender. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, bluntly stated in his report "Altitude sickness can wait": historic short squeezes often occur during Bitcoin’s bottoming phase — when bearish positions are overcrowded, short squeezes act as catalysts for trend reversals. Shorts have been thoroughly cleaned out. Now the question is — who will go long? Two signals are conflicting: Signal one: Institutions are entering. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, the largest single-week inflow since October 2025. Total inflows since August reached $2.72 billion. Five consecutive trading days of net inflows, with no outflows. Signal two: Retail leverage is retreating. Futures open interest dropped to a five-month low. Perpetual contract funding rates remain below 10%, with long positions only moderate. Spot prices are rising, but leverage is not following. This is a classic "spot-driven rebound" — institutions are buying spot, but retail is hesitant to leverage up. A bigger variable comes the day after tomorrow. On August 28 (Friday), Deribit will see about $6.44 billion in Bitcoin options expire. Call options are heavily concentrated at $75,000 and $80,000 strike prices. But the biggest pain point is at $68,000. In plain language: Those who bought $80,000 call options are desperately trying to push the price up. Market makers, to avoid losses, are desperately trying to push the price down. This tug-of-war will be decided on Friday. $2.1 billion in short corpses have paved the way to $80,000. But how far this path goes — depends not on how much more shorts can lose, but on how much longs are willing to buy. ETFs are buying, but is it enough to absorb the selling pressure at the top? After options expiry, when market makers unwind their hedges, where will the price go? K33 says the technical signal this time — reclaiming the 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages within 4 days — has only happened three times historically: October 2015, April 2020, and October 2023. Each time marked the start of a bull market. But Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan also cautions: as the global financial system is increasingly used as a geopolitical tool, a neutral monetary network not tied to any single country will become increasingly valuable. All true. But bull markets aren’t built on short corpses — they’re built on real money buying in. Shorts are all dead. Next, it’s up to the longs. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落,期权到期放大关口博弈

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