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BTC has climbed back near 80,000, and ETH is also strongly following. This wave of the market is starting to feel a bit different.
Recently, there have been continuous days of ETF capital inflows. BTC ETFs have received funds for several consecutive days, indicating that this rise is not just short covering but indeed new incremental capital entering the market. The U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases has again led the market to trade on the logic of "dollar depreciation + liquidity," and gold has also climbed back near 4600.
But the most interesting thing now is not the rise itself, but whether the market dares to continue chasing.
After BTC broke through 80,000, whether the first pullback can hold will determine if this breakout is genuine; if ETH continues to outperform BTC, high Beta assets like SOL and ZEC may continue to rotate.
However, I won’t chase the first big bullish candle now. The price level is already not low, and the more excited the market is, the more likely it is to see a spike followed by a pullback.
A bigger variable is still ahead: the Jackson Hole meeting has already started, and the real event risk is Fed Chair Warsh’s speech on Friday. If a hawkish signal is released, the dollar and interest rate expectations will shift, and the crypto market could instantly cool down; conversely, if it leans dovish, risk assets still have room to rally.
My approach: keep holding low-position stakes, and if you have no position, wait for a pullback confirmation. Better to miss some gains than to chase full positions when sentiment is hottest.
Tonight, watch BTC at 80,000 and ETH’s previous highs closely; the market is waiting for the next choice. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $BTC $ETH $XAU $xNVDA $NVDA earnings report is excellent but the price increase is not very impressive🤔
Q2 earnings beat expectations: Revenue reached $9.622 billion (up 106% year-over-year), adjusted EPS was $2.46, surpassing market consensus. Among them, the main "Data Center" revenue reached $8.902 billion (up 117% year-over-year).
Stunning Wall Street with FY2028 outlook: Management unusually provided guidance a full year in advance, forecasting about 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized this is just a "conservative version under supply constraints," with actual end demand far exceeding this.
Strong Q3 guidance: Next quarter revenue is estimated at $10.8 billion (±2%), dispelling market concerns about "AI infrastructure spending peaking" once again.
Gross margin under pressure: Due to "extreme price increases" in components like high-bandwidth memory (HBM), Nvidia forecasts gross margin will temporarily slip from around 75% to the 71%-72% range.
"Revolving financing" and accounts receivable concerns: As Nvidia expands use of its own balance sheet, the market is starting to focus on whether this strategy could bring potential financial leverage risks and lengthening accounts receivable days (currently extended from 45 to 60 days).
💡 Summary: The market is currently pricing in an optimistic scenario of "AI super cycle continuing at least through the year after next." After market open, the main focus is whether buying can firmly push the stock price above the pre-market high, and whether the gross margin decline will suppress short-term valuation space.Why are more and more Bitcoin whales starting to convert $BTC into IBIT?
In July this year, BlackRock lowered the minimum threshold for directly converting Bitcoin into $IBIT shares from $25 million to $1 million. Bloomberg revealed that currently, over $5 billion worth of Bitcoin has been converted into IBIT through this channel.
For investors who already hold large amounts of BTC, the most important thing is to reduce custody risk.
For BTC worth tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's relatively easy to store it yourself using a hardware wallet. But when it reaches millions or even tens of millions of dollars, the private keys and mnemonic phrases themselves become risks. Device damage, loss of mnemonic phrases, hacker attacks, insider leaks, kidnapping and ransom—any problem in these links could lead to the total loss of assets, and once an on-chain transfer is completed, it is basically irreversible.
After converting to IBIT, investors do not need to store private keys themselves; the underlying BTC is custodied by institutions, and their assets are held in securities accounts. Securities accounts can perform identity verification, permission management, and abnormal transaction monitoring, and also have account freezing and identity recovery mechanisms. If you forget your password, you can re-verify your identity; if you lose your phone, you can log in again; even if something happens to you, inheritance can be arranged through trusts, estates, and beneficiaries.
Therefore, for investors with very large asset scales, converting to IBIT can indeed avoid many security issues.
Another advantage is financing and asset management efficiency. On-chain BTC is difficult to directly place into traditional private banks, family offices, and securities portfolios for loans or financing, but IBIT is a standard security that can be held in the same account as stocks, bonds, and cash, making it easier to use for collateral, financing, margin, and family wealth management.
This is also very important for many investors who hardly intend to sell their Bitcoin but want to leverage some financing. For example, holding $10 million in IBIT, they might only pledge a small portion for financing and choose loans in relatively low-interest currencies like Japanese yen or Swiss francs, potentially lowering financing costs significantly compared to borrowing in US dollars directly.
The funds obtained can be used for other investments or to provide liquidity. When loan terms allow, assets like US Treasuries, VOO, or QQQ can also be allocated, effectively adding an annual yield to BTC.
Of course, converting to IBIT is not necessarily always a good thing, but for many investors who do not engage in DeFi and prefer traditional methods, storing IBIT is indeed relatively simpler. Cow Brother's sharing is exactly what makes $BTC "unique"
Previously, the 312 candlestick fell back to the starting point, with a large number of people buying in, and finally there was a huge 40% bearish candlestick, which was truly brutal
Now with ETFs, although the market structure has changed, it doesn't mean there won't be deep corrections in a bull market
So I strongly agree with buying options for nonlinear protection
The most valuable aspect of Long Put is also providing convexity
The deeper BTC falls, the more negative the Put's Delta becomes, and the stronger the protection will be A Different Perspective on the Market — The Average Withdrawal Price on Exchanges
When BTC is withdrawn from exchanges, a record is left on the blockchain. We can calculate the average withdrawal price across all exchanges to estimate the overall market cost basis.
The logic here is: we assume the time BTC was purchased on the exchange is close to the time it was withdrawn; therefore, the cost approximates the price at that moment.
So, can you guess what the average cost of all BTC withdrawn from exchanges in 2026 will be?
$72,000 (green line in the chart) — this is a key figure.
Because, looking at the past two cycles, after the first wave of rally out of the bear bottom, the pullbacks always find a new supply-demand balance here.
For example, after a small bull run in December 2019, the first pullback was near the "2019 exchange average withdrawal cost (blue line)," slightly breaking below it.
The sharp drop on March 12 was a special case, so we won’t discuss it.
Also, in March, June, and September 2023, the three pullbacks were all near the "2023 exchange average withdrawal cost," also slightly breaking below.
Do you think this is a coincidence?
In my view, if this represents the "real market cost" recently, then selling pressure weakens once the price falls below cost, which is easy to understand.
By now, you should understand why we say $72,000, or around $70,000, is quite critical.
If it breaks below directly, does that mean something has shattered the optimism of the "bull return" again?
(Note: This line is dynamic and needs to be recalibrated periodically.)$BTC I think there's a high chance of a deeper pullback later, possibly even seeing a new break above 60,000; But this time it may not return to 50,000, and might even make a real Higher Low round. BTC has been very strong recently. Over the past 30 years, US Treasuries dropped from above 5.3%, the dollar loosened a bit, plus ETF inflows and heavy short positions ahead, so a single rally blew out many short positions. After so much pent-up sentiment, the market finally found an exit, climbing from around 60K all the way to 80K, which I think makes perfect sense. But here's a problem: this round of rally has already reached the toughest segment I think to break through. I will now consider 82K–85K as a very important resistance zone for this round. On one hand, 80K itself is a round number; Above 83K–85K, it's close to the trading volume and trapped zone left over from the late January downturn. BTC stayed near 84K at the time, then immediately dropped to 75K or even lower, so naturally there will be a batch of chips trying to break even. Plus, this round has risen from around 60K very quickly. So for now, I'm not expecting it to jump straight to 90K. What I want to see more is: after breaking through 82K–85K, the first truly decent daily or weekly pullback will be caught by where. Let's look at around 75K first. If BTC can hold here and break through 85K again, the structure would look very good: 60K → 85K → 7Here are a few important but overlooked news items from the past two days:
1. The US banking industry is starting a stablecoin alliance, planning to launch a blockchain network governed by the banking sector for stablecoins by 2027. It's currently unclear which chain they will use; I guess they will create their own consortium chain.
Commentary: Blockchain is entering the mainstream financial market, and crypto will become more closely integrated with traditional finance.
2. Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows, extending last week's trend, with ongoing demand for spot allocation.
Commentary: Continued inflows indicate that the bullish trend is very likely not over.
3. Japan plans to settle stocks and government bonds on-chain with second-level finality.
Commentary: If this is realized, the financial market will truly achieve security and transparency, potentially putting auditing firms out of business.
4. US debt has surpassed 40 trillion, and long-term bond yields still carry the risk of rising, which could affect Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Commentary: Rising long-term bond yields are something neither the Treasury nor the Federal Reserve wants to see. They will likely inject liquidity to support the market; otherwise, US tech stocks might be the first to falter. As long as liquidity support continues, it benefits beta assets like Bitcoin and gold, which is one of the key catalysts for this rally.Core PCE data released, Jackson Hole to set the short-term market tone
US July Core PCE year-on-year at 3.3%, exactly matching the previous value and market expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%; Q2 GDP annualized revision remains at 1.5%.
Inflation did not continue to surge, but it is still far from the Fed's 2% target; the economic slowdown is not yet strong enough to support a shift in monetary policy.
After the data release, market expectations for a September rate hike slightly increased. The market is no longer focused on how much the data exceeds expectations, but rather on whether inflation stickiness can force the Fed to continue tightening.
This Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium, Chair Powell's speech is of utmost importance.
How he balances inflation, employment, and economic growth, and the interest rate judgment framework he provides, will directly define the subsequent policy path.
If the speech is ambiguous and does not provide clear guidance, internal divisions within the Fed regarding September will continue to widen.
The dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and BTC will all be influenced by this speech.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $BTC #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视
NVIDIA is playing both sides this time, raising prices while also spending money.
What does this have to do with the crypto world? Three layers.
First, don’t expect computing power costs to drop in the short term. AI server prices are rising, cloud providers’ costs are higher, so computing power rental prices are going up accordingly. Miners hoping for hardware prices to ease soon are unrealistic.
Second, the bargaining power of the storage sector has been reaffirmed. NVIDIA’s price hikes aren’t due to expensive chips but because HBM is too costly. Storage leaders hold pricing power, and profits in the AI supply chain are shifting from chip design to storage manufacturing.
Third, NVIDIA is transforming from a “chip company” into an “AI ecosystem capital organizer.” This year it has already committed over $40 billion in AI equity deals: $30 billion to OpenAI, $10 billion to Anthropic, and $2 billion to xAI. Most of this money flows back when the other parties buy NVIDIA chips, creating a clever capital loop.
Here’s my take. Server price hikes mean NVIDIA is passing costs along the entire AI supply chain. Investing in Perplexity means it’s locking in the next generation of AI application entry points. It’s securing upstream pricing power while locking down downstream application ecosystems. This strategy is quite solid.
In the short term, NVIDIA’s moves don’t directly impact the big crypto market, but the direction is clear—capital expenditure on AI infrastructure is still rising, computing power costs won’t drop soon, but the certainty of the whole sector is growing stronger.
What do you think?
$BTC Why are more and more Bitcoin whales starting to convert $BTC into IBIT?
In July this year, BlackRock lowered the minimum threshold for directly converting Bitcoin into $IBIT shares from $25 million to $1 million. Bloomberg revealed that currently, over $5 billion worth of Bitcoin has been converted into IBIT through this channel.
For investors who already hold large amounts of BTC, the most important thing is to reduce custody risk.
For BTC worth tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars, it’s relatively easy to store it yourself using a hardware wallet. But when it reaches millions or even tens of millions of dollars, the private keys and mnemonic phrases themselves become risks. Device damage, loss of mnemonic phrases, hacker attacks, insider leaks, kidnapping and ransom—any problem in these links could lead to a total loss of assets, and once an on-chain transfer is completed, it is basically irreversible.
After converting to IBIT, investors don’t need to store private keys themselves; the underlying BTC is custodied by institutions, and their assets are held in securities accounts. Securities accounts can perform identity verification, permission management, and abnormal transaction monitoring, and also have account freezing and identity recovery mechanisms. If you forget your password, you can re-verify your identity; if you lose your phone, you can log in again; even if something happens to you, inheritance can be arranged through trusts, estates, and beneficiaries.
So for investors with very large asset scales, converting to IBIT can indeed avoid many security issues.
Another advantage is financing and asset management efficiency. On-chain BTC is difficult to directly place into traditional private banks, family offices, and securities portfolios for loans or financing, but IBIT is a standard security that can be held in the same account as stocks, bonds, and cash, making it easier to use for collateral, financing, margin, and family wealth management.
This is also very important for many investors: using Bitcoin that they hardly intend to sell to leverage financing. For example, holding $10 million in IBIT, they might only pledge a small portion for financing, then choose loans in relatively low-interest currencies like Japanese yen or Swiss francs, potentially lowering financing costs significantly compared to borrowing directly in US dollars.
The funds obtained can be used for other investments or to provide liquidity. When loan terms allow, assets like US Treasuries, VOO, and QQQ can also be allocated, effectively adding an annual yield to BTC.
Of course, converting to IBIT is not necessarily always a good thing, but for many investors who do not engage in DeFi and prefer traditional methods, storing IBIT is indeed relatively simpler.$BTC US core PCE remained flat from last month, but this is not bearish for the market; the real variable is what Warsh will say on Friday.
Core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, unchanged for two consecutive months and still far from the 2% target; however, the probability of a rate hike in September is currently about 36%, and the market has not fully priced in a "rate hike restart."
BTC has already surged from about 62,000 to 80,000 USD, up about 26% in 7 days. In August, BTC ETF net inflows exceeded 3 billion USD, indicating that funds are clearly front-running easing expectations; but current Funding is only about 0.0031%, and OI is also at a low level, so this rally does not look like a pure leverage-driven pump.
Therefore, I am more optimistic about BTC. As long as Warsh is not clearly hawkish, there is still room for macro valuations to rise; if he leans hawkish, it could easily trigger a round of leverage liquidation first. This is worth watching now, but don’t blindly chase near 80,000 USD; wait for the speech to confirm the direction. $ETH $OKB 最近市场的目光，似乎悄悄从比特币身上移开了一些。当比特币从八万美元附近滑落，又在低位反复拉锯时，以太坊却表现出一种少有的克制——没有跟着急跌，甚至还在尝试自己往上走。这种画面，放在过去很长一段时间里，是难以想象的。 以往我们习惯了这样的节奏：比特币涨，以太坊跟着涨；比特币一跌，以太坊往往跌得更快、更深。它长期扮演着追随者的角色，像是比特币身后的影子，方向感完全寄托在别人身上。但这两天，盘面上出现了一丝不同的气息，一部分从比特币流出的资金，似乎没有离场观望，而是转身涌向了以太坊，想替它撑起一场独立的行情。 这种变化，确实让人感到新鲜，也让人忍不住多想一层。毕竟，以太坊若能走出自己的节奏，对市场结构来说，是一种更健康、更丰富的状态。不过，我们也需要提醒自己，目前看到的更多是“抗跌”的韧性，而不是真正意义上的“脱钩”。抗跌，意味着它暂时比比特币更有韧性；但脱钩，则需要它在比特币大幅波动时，依然能走出独立的方向。 眼下，若比特币再度出现剧烈下探，以太坊恐怕很难完全置身事外。市场的根基仍然握在比特币手里，它就像整个加密世界的地基，地基一旦晃动，楼上再漂亮的建筑也难以安稳。以太坊想要真正飞起来，需Brothers, $SNDK finally bounced back today.
Just checked the data, on Tuesday SNDK closed at $1,499.37, up 1.26%, and after-hours it even surged to around $1,555, slightly lower than the $1,573 reported by a brother but already recovered a lot. A couple of days ago it was still hovering just above $1,400, and in the blink of an eye, it bounced back above $1,500. The speed of this rebound is indeed fast.
📊 What happened? From a crash to a rebound in just one day
On August 24, it plunged nearly 7%, hitting an intraday low of $1,416, with the entire storage sector being crushed. There are two main triggers:
First, geopolitical shocks affecting pricing power. The latest reports say Washington may allow Apple to source storage chips from Chinese suppliers (CXMT and YMTC), directly threatening NAND manufacturers' pricing power. Investors interpret this as a potential erosion of profit margins.
Second, a comprehensive valuation reset of AI storage trades. After a significant rise, SNDK is still up over 500% year-to-date and more than 3000% over the past year. The profit-taking pressure is very heavy; any slight disturbance can trigger large-scale cashing out.
But after the crash, funds immediately stepped in to buy the dip. On Tuesday, SNDK rallied from a low of $1,450 to close at $1,499, then continued to surge to $1,555 after hours. It bounced nearly $100 from the low in one day, indicating there is indeed capital supporting around $1,400.
💎 Fundamentals: The crash was emotion-driven, not a refutation of logic
This drop has nothing to do with the company itself; the fundamentals are actually strong:
Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, gross margin over 80%, data center business grew 437% year-over-year. The company is in a net cash position, previously approved $6 billion in buybacks, then added another $14 billion, with a total available buyback amount close to $15.5 billion.
Analysts point out the expected P/E ratio is only about 6.9 times, which is not expensive for a company growing at this speed. It has retraced about 37% from the high of $2,354, but the year-to-date gain is still as high as 531%. The crash was not due to fundamental collapse but a market sentiment and competition risk-driven repricing.
💰 Outlook: The rebound has arrived, but don’t rush to call a reversal yet
Tuesday’s bullish candle shows there is indeed capital buying near $1,400. But the short-term trend remains weak — the daily MACD is still below zero, RSI is in the neutral zone, and the path of least resistance is still downward.
The key is whether the rebound can sustain: if $1,550-$1,560 holds, a short-term bottom may have formed; if it gets pushed back from there, it means the overhead supply is still suppressing the price.
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
· Long: Wait for a pullback to $1,480-$1,500 to confirm stabilization before considering, stop loss at $1,430, target $1,550-$1,580
· Short: If the $1,550-$1,560 rebound is weak, light short positions can be tried, stop loss at $1,600, target $1,480-$1,500
· Leverage: This stock is highly volatile, control position size
· Risk warning: The sustainability of the rebound is uncertain; if $1,500 is lost again, $1,400 may be tested again
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 PCE just landed, and tonight it's Wash's turn.
The just-released core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, in line with expectations, but the overall PCE exceeded expectations. Inflation is still hovering at a high level, not coming down much. Coupled with weak consumption, real spending has barely grown, leaving the Federal Reserve quite conflicted.
The market, however, is resilient; $BTC has surged back above 80,000. This rebound is supported by U.S. Treasury repurchases and ETF capital inflows. Last week, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of nearly $2 billion.
That said, a quick surge doesn't mean it will hold. Around the 80,000 level, there are about $100 million in sell orders stacked, so short-term pressure is significant. Moreover, sentiment has shifted from "panic" to "extreme greed," and short-term profit-taking has begun.
The biggest variable ahead is Wash's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. This will be his first public statement since taking office.
Some analysts put it bluntly: "If dovish, the price will continue to rise; if hawkish, it could drop directly back to around 73,000." The 80,000 area is already very sensitive, with $4 billion in short liquidity waiting above. If Wash takes a tough stance, selling pressure at the top will be heavy, and there won't be much solid support down to 71,000.
My view is simple: no rush at this level. Let's wait for Wash to clarify his stance first. Holding cash is more reassuring than being stuck at the peak. Don't bet on direction; wait for the signal.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The most dangerous signal in a volatile market isn't a sharp drop, but this gentle trap that "seems like it's about to rise." Have you ever felt like watching the market all afternoon, doing nothing, yet feeling more exhausted than staying up late to open trades? Today, BTC returned to 78,500, ETH touched 2,460, and once the market stabilized, the established coins immediately started peeking around. CORE has been climbing steadily for several days, with BICO jumping straight from 0.017 to 0.025, and TRX climbing from 0.12 all the way to around 0.28. It seems like opportunities are everywhere, but the alarm in my heart actually sounded. Let's start with CORE. Yesterday, I tried a short position at 0.0265 and ran at 0.0257. It's not that I don't think I'm optimistic, but I feel the downward momentum is insufficient. Today it followed the market back to 0.0265, which is the most troublesome move. Last time, it plunged straight from 0.03 to 0.019, a big bearish candlestick buried all the long-selling fans. My rule for myself is: don't go long on these unpredictable coins; it's better to wait for it to push back to around 0.03 to find a short position, at least the odds are good. BICO is more typical: after multiplying several times in a week, it started to decline, then suddenly rebounded on high volume today, as if it's about to start a second time. But look at how quickly it pulled back, you know the selling pressure above is still there. A truly strong rebound doesn't give you time to hesitate; this hesitant posture is more like a big player looking for competitors at a high level. TRX is the most troublesome thing. Short 0.271 once, then got blown up, but luckily it ran fastTomorrow’s BTC options expiry is one I’m watching closely. Roughly $6.4B worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire on Aug. 28, with a lot of positioning sitting around the $75K and $80K strikes.
What makes this interesting to me is the timing. BTC has already made a strong move toward $80K, so now we have a large derivatives expiry happening right around an important psychological level.
Personally, I wouldn’t try to predict direction purely from the options data. A big expiry can create short-term noise as traders close, roll or hedge positions, but it doesn’t automatically tell us whether BTC goes up or down.
I’m more interested in what happens after the expiry clears.
If BTC can stay strong once some of this positioning is removed, I’d take that more seriously than a quick pre
expiry move. If volatility suddenly cools and price struggles around $80K, that tells another story.
#BTCOptionsExpiryTest $BTC Today, I bought a coin I'd been watching for a long time. At the start, it had about a 4% unrealized gain, but by the close, it was a 5% loss. In just a few hours, the account flipped from red to green and back again—the whole process felt like a miniature market sentiment lesson. This coin hasn't been online for long, but its trading volume has always been active. Recently, the data has been impressive in the overall recovery market, which is exactly why I decided to test the waters. However, the real turning point is often not the candlestick itself, but the gap between data and events. Today, the market was swept along by several macro topics—the PCE Price Index, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and the intensive releases of the AI earnings season. These terms may seem clichéd on their own, but when stacked, they create a subtle tension in liquidity. Market participants are watching whether inflation data will exceed expectations, while also speculating about what Fed officials will signal at Jackson Hole. Coupled with mixed AI earnings reports, funds haven't truly formed a synergy. I reviewed this trade: the entry logic itself was correct, and the fundamentals of the coins did not suddenly deteriorate, but volatility during the macro window was steeper than usual. Prices were quickly driven by sentiment, and the 4% unrealized gain was not locked in time, leading to rapid cash-back and even losses amid risk aversion before the data release. This reminds me that during periods of intensive data and central bank meetings, short-term positions require not stronger conviction, but smaller positions and clearer stop-loss discipline. From a broader perspective, currentlyBitcoin has pulled back from $81,200 to fluctuate around $78,500–$79,800.
The cumulative increase in August is still about 25%, making it one of the strongest Augusts in nearly a decade. The drivers have not disappeared: the Treasury is increasing long-term bond repurchases, large-scale short liquidations, and continuous net inflows into spot ETFs. This rally shows more spot characteristics, with leverage not increasing in sync.
We are now entering a digestion phase. After touching $80,000 but failing to hold, the market is starting to ask the next question: what is the quality of the pullback? If support near $77,000 holds effectively, the structure remains healthy; if it quickly breaks, a wider range of fluctuations may resume. The resistance ahead is at $80,000–$83,000.
ETH and SOL still show independent performance in this round, but the dominance remains with Bitcoin. Sentiment has shifted from extreme fear to greed, and capital flow is more important than slogans.
When price volatility increases, the real risk often lies not in the candlesticks but in the holding methods. Update windows, identity mapping, and recovery paths under pressure are most easily overlooked when the market accelerates.
Markets can move fast, but safety boundaries usually do not.
(Data as of 2026-08-27)#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 昨晚英伟达财报很强。 但如果只盯着营收超预期、盘后上涨，会漏掉一个更值得交易的信号：AI 的需求依然在加速，而 Memory 已经贵到开始影响英伟达自己的毛利率。 先把财报数据过一遍 英伟达 FY2027 Q2： 总营收 962.21 亿美元，同比 +106%，环比 +18%，市场预期约 921.7 亿 数据中心收入 890 亿美元，同比 +117%，环比 +18%，市场预期约 850.8 亿 GAAP 净利润 596.88 亿美元，同比 +126% GAAP 营业利润 637.34 亿美元，同比 +124% GAAP EPS 2.46 美元 调整后 EPS 2.22 美元，市场预期约 2.10 美元 GAAP / Non-GAAP 毛利率均为 75% Edge Computing 收入 72 亿美元，同比 +27%、环比 +13% 单看这些数字，已经是一次非常明显的超预期。 更重要的是下一季度。 英伟达给出的 FY2027 Q3 营收指引达到：1080 亿美元 ±2% 市场原本预期约 1041.9 亿美元。 而且英伟达特别说明，这个指引PCE data came out last night. Overall 3.7%, 0.1 percentage points higher than expected; core 3.3% flat from last month, month-on-month 0.2% slightly higher than last month's 0.1%. Inflation stickiness still hasn't eased.
The market is now most conflicted about Wash's Jackson Hole debut tomorrow night. Since taking office, this guy's style has been "talk less," even the dot plot has been paused. So far, he hasn't clearly defined whether inflation is a "transitory shock" or "economic overheating"—this characterization directly determines whether to raise rates. CICC predicts he will most likely reiterate inflation risks and keep the rate hike option open to rebuild credibility.
$BTC is hovering around 78K; the 81K spike from a couple of days ago was slapped back by the PCE. There are liquidation orders stacked at 77K below; if it can't hold, it will have to drop further. $ETH is at 2450, the 2500-2550 range is like an iron plate, having tried three times but failed to break through.
Before tomorrow night's speech, it's expected to be volatile. If Wash leans hawkish, risk assets will suffer; if he can signal some flexibility, there might still be hope. At this position, I prefer to wait for the speech to land before making a move, no rush.
What do you think, will Wash be hawkish or dovish? #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
Nvidia beats expectations, QQQ rises over 1%, is the US stock market about to explode again?
Driven by this wave of sentiment, $BTC pulls up to 80000, $ETH holds steady at 2500, but the positive sentiment has already been priced in, so don't rush to chase. After the positive news is priced in, there might be a pull-up followed by a correction. Currently, #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The interest rate meeting is just around the corner. Before the Fed's decision, any explosive move is always suppressed and cautious. It's recommended to wait until this wave of sentiment settles and the price stabilizes before making a move. As long as the rate hike signals are not obvious in September and December, there might be a chance to open the door for rate cuts later, which would be the real positive news.
$SNDK has already pulled up quite a bit, so why is Hynix still sleeping??? Bullish tonight, if it doesn't rise, I'll personally carry explosives to the Hynix factory to blow up chips, and after that, it will rise, brothers 😅
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Sun Yuchen announced that TRON will upgrade to be quantum-resistant by the end of the year, while also urging the Bitcoin community to accelerate discussions.
Key points:
1. TRON is moving fast—the testnet is already online, and the mainnet upgrade is scheduled for year-end. Compared to Bitcoin's cautious approach, TRON, as a single entity, can advance more quickly.
2. The stablecoin market size of $94 billion is about to surpass $100 billion, which is TRON's confidence. USDT mainly circulates on TRON, so upgrading to be quantum-resistant is like buying insurance for the stablecoin infrastructure.
3. Sun Yuchen's view on Bitcoin's four-year cycle: "Its importance is declining," shifting to a "industry collateral" positioning. This is a key point—he believes BTC is like gold and is no longer the sole dominant currency.
4. Regarding the "CLARITY Act": the bill's passage will intensify competition but is overall positive. Increased competition plus capital inflow is an opportunity for platforms like TRON that already have scale.
5. JPMorgan was also mentioned—the quantum threat is not just a concern for the crypto industry; traditional finance faces it as well.
TRON is taking the lead in quantum resistance, with stablecoin scale and rapid execution as advantages. While the Bitcoin community is still discussing, TRON is already moving to implement.BTC breaks 80,000 again, can it hold this time?
$BTC just broke 80,000 again, and $SOL simultaneously stood above $105. Déjà vu? It just happened two days ago—on August 25, BTC surged to $81,270, then fell back to around 79,000 a few hours later. Same script, will the ending be different this time?
What's different between the two breakouts?
Similarities: The drivers are still the same three—Treasury expanding long bond repurchases triggering dollar sell-off, continuous net inflows into ETFs (last week $920 million inflow on the 1st), and short squeezes.
Differences: The first was a lightning strike—20% rise in three days, driven by short squeeze, came fast and went fast. This time it's more moderate—a 1.25% rise in 24 hours, noticeably slower.
Can it hold this time?
Positive side: GSR believes above 80,000 is the new normal, market structure has substantially changed; spot ETFs have had eight consecutive days of net inflows exceeding $2.8 billion; institutions are buying, not retail chasing.
Negative side: The real test is at 83,000—the intersection of the 365-day moving average and May highs; 81,000-86,000 is defined by Glassnode as a strong supply wall; daily RSI is overbought, profit-taking pressure is accumulating.
The first breakout was a "false fire" caused by short squeeze; this time there is a more solid ETF buying base supporting it. But 80,000 is just a psychological barrier; the real watershed is at 83,000—only breaking above that confirms the bull market, failure to do so means a second short-term top.
80,000 has been kicked open, now it depends on whether it can hold steady $BTC BTC 's wobble near $80K isn't really about spot sellers — it's $6.4B in options expiring Friday, with 81,700 contracts concentrated right at that strike. Dealers hedging into settlement can whip price both ways before it even clears. Real signal comes after: reclaim $80K fast, and this was just noise. Stall out and slide toward $78K, and the noise turns into something worth respecting.#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Today, when I opened the historical positions, the first thing I saw was a whole green zone. BTC、ETH、ZEC、TRUMP…… All nine trades that have already closed were profitable. Looking at win rate and return alone, this seems like a pretty good live trading record. But when I calculated "closing profit," "fees," and "realized profit" together, it made me rethink high-leverage trading. The total for these nine trades: Gross profit from closing positions was 544.80 USD;
Fee: 148.21U;
Funding fee is about 4.31 USD;
The final net profit was 392.28 USD. In other words, although every trade was profitable, about 28% of the gross profit was taken away by trading costs. One BTC short position was particularly noticeable. The average opening price was 79,938.2, the average closing price was 79,759.4, indicating correct direction judgment and about 179 points of price space. This trade generated a closing profit of 39.05 USD, but paid 15.69 USD in fees, leaving only 23.36 USD in the end. The fees ate about 40% of the gross profit. Another ETH transaction was even more direct: closing profit was 15.55 USD, fees were 7.86 USD, and in the end, only 7.69 USD remained. Although the market direction was correct, nearly half of the profits were paid to trading costs. This isn't the platform charging fees for no reason, but rather a fundamental issue I overlooked in the past: margin determines how much principal I occupy, and nominal positions determine how much the platform charges. I use 100x leverage to control a 17,450U BTC position, in practice#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
This PCE is not bearish for the market; the real variable is what Warsh will say on Friday.
Core PCE year-on-year is 3.3%, unchanged for two consecutive months, still far from the 2% target; but the probability of a rate hike in September is currently about 36%, and the market has not fully priced in a "rate hike restart."
$BTC has already surged from about 62,000 to 79,000 USD, up about 23% in 7 days. In August, BTC ETF net inflows exceeded 3 billion USD, indicating that funds are clearly front-running easing expectations; however, current Funding is only about 0.0031%, and OI is also at a low level, so this rally does not look like a pure leverage-driven pump.
Therefore, I am more optimistic about BTC. As long as Warsh is not clearly hawkish, there is still room for macro valuations to rise; if he leans hawkish, it is more likely to first trigger a round of deleveraging. This is worth paying attention to now, but do not blindly chase near 79,000 USD; wait for the speech to confirm the direction. Core Lightning has exposed a critical vulnerability in the Lightning Network.
This vulnerability was discovered by AI scanning, again AI.
The development team assessed the risk as very high and directly warned those running CLN nodes to either upgrade or shut down their nodes immediately.
However, there is a lot of controversy over one operation.
They first released the compiled program, while the source code patches and vulnerability details were withheld from public disclosure for two weeks.
The concern is that hackers might reverse engineer it quickly and develop attack programs to cause trouble.
But open source is supposed to be transparent.
Now node operators can only run a program without seeing the changes; you can't verify what was modified yourself and can only gamble on trusting the development team.
Even more outrageous, the earliest alert actually came from leaked chat screenshots inside DC, not an official announcement. The team is really bold.
Ordinary users using Lightning for daily transfers need not worry.
The risk only targets those who run CLN nodes themselves and open channels to do routing.
This incident puts the real issues of the Lightning Network on the table.
Everyone hypes it as the Bitcoin layer-two revolution, emphasizing decentralization. But once a fatal bug appears in the underlying code, the fate of some nodes is still held in the hands of a small group of developers.
They claim trustlessness, but when something goes wrong, you still have to trust people.
Open source does not mean invulnerable. Code is ultimately written by humans, and now even vulnerabilities are being batch-discovered by AI.
It’s clear that it still cannot escape human governance, private negotiations, and even some black-box handling. Gold ETFs recorded the largest net weekly inflow in nearly ten months, with prices continuing to consolidate at high levels; meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs also maintain a solid net buying pace. Many are still debating whether capital prefers the traditional safe haven of gold or the high beta elasticity of Bitcoin, but from the underlying logic of macro asset allocation, the simultaneous expansion of these two non-sovereign assets essentially represents a collective rush by global institutional capital against sovereign debt expansion and the long-term dilution of fiat purchasing power.
Against the backdrop of $40 trillion in U.S. debt ceiling and the irreversible expansion of global central bank balance sheets, the definition of capital risk aversion has long evolved from guarding against short-term stock market corrections to combating the systemic devaluation of credit-based fiat currencies. Gold serves as the ultimate ballast stone for sovereign institutions and central banks, possessing very strong credit defense attributes; Bitcoin, with its decentralized hard cap and intergenerational consensus migration, plays the role of a highly aggressive digital gold.
In my asset allocation system, gold and Bitcoin are by no means zero-sum substitutes but form a non-sovereign barbell combination that balances offense and defense. Gold is responsible for locking down downside volatility during sudden liquidity tightening or macro black swan events, providing certainty without counterparty risk; Bitcoin is responsible for delivering explosive convex upside returns when central banks restart easing or when the dollar's credit is shaken.
Facing the macro uncertainties ahead, blindly betting on any single asset will encounter logical dead ends. Holding core physical gold as a foundation while allocating Bitcoin spot with growth elasticity is the optimal solution to navigate through fiat currency inflation cycles. $CORE's hype surged before its launch, revealing three subtle divergences rarely discussed
Julian Leiner, independent on-chain researcher
Recently, $CORE's popularity on crypto social platforms has skyrocketed. Various KOLs have thrown out aggressive price predictions, and new terms like CORE-ATM have spread rapidly. Many investors are betting that the project will announce major news at the Bitcoin Asia Summit in Hong Kong. However, setting aside tweet hype and community rumors, a review of the on-chain real data leads to a more objective conclusion. This article does not assume a bullish or bearish stance but points out three structural divergences that mainstream crypto media seldom explore.
First, the BTC staking pool and the native ecosystem liquidity are disconnected.
Currently, about 5541 BTC are locked in lstBTC staking. For an emerging BTC-Fi public chain, this is undoubtedly an impressive milestone. But a key detail is often overlooked: the vast majority of users depositing BTC aim only to earn passive staking rewards. They do not further use the lstBTC they receive to participate in CORE chain lending, liquidity pools, or various DApps.
Thus, the market forms two isolated liquidity pools: the BTC staking pool continues to grow, while the native DeFi locked value remains at tens of millions of dollars. The staked BTC does not naturally spill over to drive local ecosystem prosperity. Unless the protocol bridges this gap through mechanisms or incentives, this public chain will rely long-term on a single product narrative and cannot grow into a complete DeFi economy.
Second, the CORE token’s own value capture mechanism is weak.
According to the plan, the upcoming BTC-backed stablecoin will be collateralized by lstBTC, not the CORE token; service fees generated by lstBTC institutional business go to the protocol treasury and are not directly distributed to token holders. Currently, CORE token’s real use cases include network staking, gas fees, and community governance voting. On-chain gas consumption is minimal, and governance power is mostly concentrated in large holders.
This creates a practical contradiction: the more successful the lstBTC institutional business is, the harder it is for that growth to directly translate into sustained buying demand for $CORE. The entire BTC-Fi flywheel is spinning, but the token itself remains outside the core revenue loop. This is a seriously underestimated long-term risk.
Third, expectations for institutional entry timing are overly optimistic.
Undeniably, the lstBTC institutional version has completed technical integration with several top custodians. But technical integration does not mean large funds will immediately enter. Large custodians must undergo multiple layers of risk control, compliance assessments, and client cultivation cycles, typically taking 12-24 months. Meanwhile, competitors like Babylon, Lombard, and other BTC-Fi projects are vying for the same institutional BTC funds. CORE has only gained entry qualification, which does not guarantee confirmed large orders.
A word on the widely circulated CORE-ATM. At the time of writing, it is neither on the official roadmap, nor audited, nor has usable contracts, and there was no official demo at the Hong Kong summit. It remains a community-derived concept. Unverified narratives can drive short-term price spikes but cannot support a multi-year bull market thesis.
Conclusion
CORE has laid a solid foundation in the BTC-Fi sector, with lstBTC as a sturdy cornerstone. But the real test for the ecosystem is just beginning. The three most important things to track next are: whether staked BTC can flow into native DeFi; whether the token can expand new value capture scenarios; and whether verifiable large lstBTC minting records emerge on the institutional side. Compared to chasing every rumor, these on-chain signals are a more reliable yardstick. Big BTC! Once again, it has reached 80,000! Can it break through 82,500 in one go this time?
$BTC $ETH
Once 83,000 is effectively broken, the target is directly 85,000-88,000, with the ultimate goal of 90,000!
Support below:
78,000-79,000 is the first line of defense, 74,000-76,000 is the iron bottom. If it really falls to this level, it might not be a time to panic, but a time to add positions? Tomorrow, about 81,700 $BTC options on Deribit will expire, with a notional value of approximately $6.44 billion. The call/put quantity is 44,639/37,061, the put-call ratio is 0.83, max pain is around $68,000, and positions are concentrated near strike prices of $75,000 and $80,000. Such a large options expiration day will definitely bring hedging and rolling demands, but you at least need to be clear about the following points:
1. Prices sometimes fluctuate repeatedly near strike prices; this is just a market phenomenon, not a mandatory rule. The $75,000 and $80,000 levels are there to raise your alertness, not to directly draw lines to determine rises or falls.
2. The number of calls in this expiration contract exceeds puts, meaning the number of bullish participants is higher than bearish ones. However, calls may just be part of market makers' spot protection, spread strategies, or volatility trading. The contract quantity does not indicate who holds or sells, so don’t pretend you clearly see the market direction.
3. The most dangerous aspect of max pain is that it looks like a definitive answer, but never use $68,000 directly as a short-term price target. Any indicator that compresses a complex market into a single number is worth watching, but must never be used alone, especially for prediction purposes. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC Today at the Hong Kong Bitcoin Conference, ETFs are the focus. CZ talked about the "Bitcoin Century," and the roundtable discussed the "next generation of crypto ETFs."
Strong data: The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $22.3 billion, setting a record for this year, with net buying for seven to eight consecutive days. Futures positions dropped by 11%, indicating that the buying is driven by real institutional money, not leveraged gamblers.
Risks were also mentioned: $83,000-$86,000 is a "supply wall," where early trapped holders and profit-taking positions accumulate. The daily trading volume of the three Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong is less than $2 million — hot in the US, cold in Asia.
Summary: Money is flowing in, the structure is changing, but there is significant resistance above $80,000. Wait for clearer direction before making a move. 😏#$BTC Just pulled a bullish candlestick from around $77,550, approaching the $80,000 mark, currently quoted at $79,823, up about 1.05% intraday. Over the past 7 days, up 9.35%, 30 days, up 24.91%, the medium-term trend still favors the bulls. But one detail worth pondering: 24-hour turnover of 6.227 billion USDT, not significantly expanding. The shrinking volume means this rally is more driven by exhausted selling than surging buying—the market is waiting for a trigger signal. How did this bullish candlestick appear? To understand the current market, we first need to analyze the structure of the past two weeks' gains. On August 15, BTC was still hovering around $62,400, surging 23% in one week and briefly breaking through $81,000. The driving force behind this "blitzkrieg" is not complicated—short sellers are collectively liquidated. On August 19, Bitcoin short liquidations in a single day reached $1.37 billion, nearly double the pre-July 2021 record. This is not bulls attacking; bears are surrendering. But the bears have finished blowing up—who is passing the baton to? ETF funds: the most stable buying, but slowing down Last week, 13 US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, the highest single-week record since October 2025. So far in August, cumulative net inflows have exceeded $3 billion, making it the strongest month since 2026. On August 27, BlackRock IBIT saw another $200.8 million in inflows in a single day, and Fidelity's FBTC saw $25.6 million.Zcash has finally reached an important milestone this time.
Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) has officially started trading on NYSE Arca, marking the first exchange-traded product offering spot exposure to ZEC.
Interestingly, after the ETF launch, ZEC did not continue its one-sided rally.
Previously, ZEC surged close to $880, hitting a multi-year high, then experienced a significant pullback. Meanwhile, the open interest in ZEC perpetual contracts nearly doubled to about $1.8 billion.
This presents a typical market phenomenon:
Good news gets priced in, and people start selling.
So what really matters now is not "whether ZEC has an ETF"—that question is settled.
Instead, the focus is:
How much real capital can the ETF attract after going live?
If continuous inflows follow, ZEC's current rally might have new upside potential.
But if the ETF only becomes a short-term speculation endpoint, the previously accumulated leverage could accelerate the correction.
Is the ETF a starting point or the peak of the bullish run?
We will see in the next few days $ZEC $BTC 79830.5, $ETH 2533, $SOL 104.81, today's market really left me stunned.
July PCE year-on-year 3.7% higher than the expected 3.6%, core at 3.3%, but the second GDP estimate is only 1.5%. Inflation hasn't fully dropped, the economy is still slowing down, logically it should have crashed first, but BTC touched 80,000 again, ETH rose 3.39%, SOL surged 9.25%.
Nvidia rose 5.46% after hours, AI has sparked risk appetite first, funds seem to be chasing high Beta again.
I was thinking about waiting for a pullback this morning, but the longer I waited, the higher it went. Now if I chase, I'm afraid 80,000 is a false breakout; if I don't chase, I'm afraid to wake up tomorrow and find BTC already at 81,000. This is the hardest for small investors, wanting to profit but not daring to enter, wanting to wait for a lower point but never getting it 😅
BTC first looks to see if 78,000 can hold, only if 80,000 stands firm is it truly strong; ETH looks at 2490 support, 2550 is okay but don't rush to fantasize about 3000; SOL is the most aggressive, chasing above 105 might hurt the most later.
About $6.44 billion in BTC options expire tomorrow, volatility won't be small. I won't open random positions today, missing a move is better than being stopped out by a spike.
Brothers, are you daring to chase now, or are you still standing outside the door?
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #OKX星球话题来啦 #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 After Nvidia exceeded expectations, the AI market has entered the "performance verification period." Nvidia's earnings report remains solid: quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%; data center revenue of $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. The next quarter's revenue guidance reaches $108 billion, exceeding market expectations. More importantly, the company expects FY2028 revenue to still grow by about 70%, indicating that AI computing demand has not cooled significantly for now. However, I believe the real change worth noting this earnings season is that AI returns are beginning to spread from the chip side to the software side. Salesforce's AI and data product ARR is close to $3.9 billion; CrowdStrike's quarterly revenue grew 26%, ARR reached $5.84 billion, with net new ARR setting a record at $333 million; Synopsys reported quarterly revenue of $2.477 billion and raised its full-year revenue and profit guidance; Okta, although overall growth is only 11%, saw subscription backlog orders increase 17% year-over-year. This means the market's criteria for judging the AI market are changing: previously it was about who bought more GPUs, now it's about who can turn AI into orders, renewals, and cash flow. Of course, Nvidia's delivery is still affected by supply capacity, and its valuation already reflects very high expectations. Next, Marvell's earnings will continue to validate demand for network connectivity, custom chips, and AI interconnect. If upstream and downstream grow synchronously, the AI mainline can continue; if not,Gemini IPO tests whether Crypto companies can survive the cycle
After crypto companies go public, what changes is not just the financing channels, but the evaluation criteria.
In the past, the market looked at trading volume, user growth, and popularity; after going public, investors pay more attention to whether revenue is stable, whether the business is sustainable, and whether compliance costs are controllable.
Gemini's IPO is more like a stress test: growth during a bull market is not difficult; the challenge is whether core businesses like trading and custody can continue to create value after the market cools down.
The next phase for Crypto is not just about the speed of innovation, but also the ability to operate through cycles. Having experienced the tech cycle of 2000, after watching Nvidia's market performance last night, I genuinely broke out in a cold sweat.
With 96.2 billion in revenue on the table, scaling up to a 5 trillion level, the after-hours trading showed a rollercoaster pattern of first dipping then rallying.
The market is flooded with unanimous voices: computing power demand continues to explode, hardware supply can't keep up, repeatedly emphasizing that this cycle's situation is completely different.
I've heard this narrative too many times.
Back in 2000, the market had the same rhetoric, the internet story was booming, and Cisco's equipment orders were pouring in. Looking back, the industry did indeed completely rewrite the world, but those who jumped in at the peak were trapped for a long time.
The long-term development logic of the sector is sound, but that doesn't mean entering at any price is reasonable.
I'm not bearish on the company itself, just seeing through the cycle of human nature. Every market frenzy phase always brings out the phrase "this time it's different."
The core hasn't changed; it's just wrapped in a new narrative shell.
The big picture can be accepted, but you must weigh the price carefully. In times of frenzy, you must hold onto your own judgment and not be pushed forward by collective emotion.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC It broke through 80,000 again, but only the spot position broke through 80,000; the contract did not. Let's look at the specific candlestick. You can see that the spot position broke through 80,000, but the contract had not yet broken through 80,000. Personally, I speculate that it might be because many long positions in the contract automatically take profit at 80,000, and the manipulators don't want to pull it to that level. If you think this way, then this rally could be a bullish trap. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. You can see that the contract open interest and long-short ratio are indeed declining simultaneously. This shows that during its rise, there are many long positions taking profit. This is definitely not a bullish factor. The market is like a spring; if the bulls' strength weakens significantly, the bears have a considerable advantage. —————————————————— After reviewing its long-term data, I also carefully examined its short-term data. Because Ethereum has seen a lot of buying in the short term, if Bitcoin also shows a lot of buying, then it's indeed very likely the bull market will return. However, unfortunately, I found that unlike Ethereum, it also has a lot of selling in a short period, and there isn't much buying interest. At this point, things get worse, because the two major market giants have inconsistent capital flows. So I think it's best to wait and wait for real market sentiment2026 Jackson Hole | Key Observations from Waller's Speech
Speech Time: 22:00 Beijing Time on August 28. This is the last major public statement before the September FOMC, with no direct announcement of rate decisions, only observing changes in tone and wording.
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
1. Three Core Issues (Most Concerned by the Market)
Inflation Assessment (Top Priority)
Key points to listen for: Whether inflation stickiness and high inflation risks are emphasized; whether it is acknowledged that inflation is continuing to fall toward 2%.
Crucial: Whether the option for further rate hikes is retained (not meaning an immediate hike, but keeping the possibility open).
September Rate Hike Signals (Waller's style is to minimize forward guidance)
Since taking office, Waller tends to downplay forward guidance and is unlikely to directly say whether there will be a hike in September. Focus on wording:
Repeated emphasis on data dependence: Neutral bias, maintaining status quo expectations
Emphasis on inflation risks > employment risks: Hawkish bias, increasing probability of a September hike
Mention of employment downside risks and policy lag effects: Dovish bias, cooling rate hike expectations.
Policy Communication Framework Changes
A major focus this term: Whether there is further explanation of "reducing forward guidance," giving the market less clear rate path guidance in the future, letting the market price based on economic data.
Important Reminder
Jackson Hole has no voting or dot plot; all statements are verbal from the Chair; the actual rate decision is at the September 17 FOMC meeting.
Market reaction depends on the difference from market expectations, not simply whether the speech is good or bad; if the market has already priced in hawkishness, even a hawkish speech may lead to selling the fact.$BTC is retesting the most important level of the entire cycle. Historically, once this position is broken, a major upward rally begins.
Let's start with the data. Coinbase premium has finally turned green, indicating that demand from U.S. institutions is returning. BTC's premium was clearly negative at the lows, but now institutions are even willing to pay a premium to buy in. Looking back historically, whenever the market is strong, the premium surges significantly, which is a positive fundamental signal for this rally.
Regarding order books, the spot sell wall of about $50 million to $70 million at $80,000 has been cleared. The biggest resistance above is near $80,600, where about $73 million in sell orders remain. The liquidation heatmap shows that a $3,000 upward move could trigger massive short squeezes, while a $3,000 drop has little short positions to clear. Therefore, I believe the price is more likely to first target the liquidity above.
For support, I still see the bottom range between $65,000 and $58,000, and below that, between $55,000 and $48,000. On the weekly chart, if BTC fails to break the previous high of $79,000, it will confirm a lower high, and the breakout of the supertrend and EMA bands will also fail. This could turn into a fake breakout followed by another downward move. Conversely, as long as this weekly liquidity zone is broken, it will flip into support, meaning entering a new range. Glassnode's latest report marks a critical lifeline: $81,000-$86,000.
This range converges four layers of selling pressure—cost basis layer, re-posted sell orders, options gamma flip level, and liquidation orders. With these four layers of resistance stacked together, breaking through all at once is almost impossible.
My judgment:
First target is 83,300; if it holds above and ETF inflows continue = trend established, looking at 90,000.
First support is 78,000; last night’s low of 77,600 was quickly bought back, indicating support here.
Extreme support at 70,000, the short-term holder cost basis; dropping to this level means this rebound is completely invalidated.
In an extremely greedy environment, the trading discipline is: cut position in half, tighten stop loss, do not chase highs, lightly buy on dips in the 78,000-77,000 range.
Don’t be friends with greed, be friends with discipline. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC $SOL This is the pace of takeoff! Solana's recent two governance proposals are worth paying attention to, because they're not just about changing a small parameter, but about adjusting SOL's future "supply and return model." Simply put, one is responsible for "issuing fewer tokens," the other is responsible for "burning more." 1. SIMD-550: Issuing fewer SOL in the future What SIMD-550 wants to do is accelerate the decline in Solana's inflation rate. It's easy to understand with real-life examples. Imagine Solana as a membership-based mall, with SOL like points in the mall. Previously, to encourage people to stay in the system long-term, the mall would give out lots of new points to old members every year, similar to staking rewards. Now, what SIMD-550 wants to do is: previously 100 points coupons a year, but maybe only 70 in the future. This way, holders receive less staking rewards, but at the same time, less new SOL is added in the market. So it's not simply "reducing staking yields," but rather trading lower new supply for stronger scarcity. 2. SIMD-553: Not Just Less Issuance, More Burn Another item, SIMD-553, is more like "burning." Let's use the mall example from earlier. Previously, every mall transaction would only burn a small portion of points. Now, they plan to take more points from transaction fees and invalidate them directly. That is: SIMD-550 is responsible for "printing a little less." SIMD-553 is responsible for "burning a bit more." Putting the two togetherThe short squeeze triggered the rally, $BTC needs to reclaim 83,300 to be considered strong again.
On August 19, the market saw the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019.
This liquidation directly pushed $BTC up 26% from the mid-month low.
During the same period, US spot ETFs had a weekly net inflow of $2.23 billion, setting the strongest record of the year.
BTC on exchanges continues to decrease, while wallets of various sizes are simultaneously accumulating.
All signs indicate that this rally is supported not only by a short squeeze but also by spot capital.
When the price reaches the dense supply zone between 81,000 and 86,000, holding costs, previous trapped positions, newly placed sell orders, option gamma flip points, and liquidation orders all converge here.
83,300 becomes the core battleground between bulls and bears!
Short liquidations can quickly push prices higher but cannot alone sustain a prolonged rally.
Key points to watch after the recent rebound:
- Whether BTC can stabilize above 83,300
- Whether ETF funds continue to flow in
If both conditions are met, it indicates the market is absorbing selling pressure above, giving BTC a chance to challenge 86,000.
If the price is pushed back below the resistance zone again, this rally will look more like an emotional recovery after a short squeeze.
70,000 will become the first important support, with extreme pullbacks requiring attention to the 62,000 to 65,000 range.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series 52】
7.8 months after exiting the 2019 bear bottom: the bull market recovery phase ended, the market probed the last pullback bottoming range before the main rise, creating an excellent 1.5-month trading window (ignoring the 3/12 black swan)
7.2 months after exiting the 2023 bear bottom: the bull market recovery phase ended, the market probed the last pullback bottoming range before the main rise, creating an excellent 2.2-month trading window
This cycle has been 0.25 months since exiting the bear bottom 全网都在喊 $NVDA “YYDS”，但我反而选择在 $SNDK 上做空。 不是我不看好 AI，而是这一轮财报让我看到一个明显变化： 市场已经不再奖励“沾上AI”这三个字，而是在筛选谁真正把AI变成了订单、收入和现金流。 英伟达最新财报依然强势，数据中心业务继续成为核心增长引擎，管理层对后续AI算力需求的判断也依旧乐观。 但更值得关注的是产业链其他环节： 🔹 Salesforce：AI相关产品商业化继续加速，Agentforce等产品开始贡献更明确的收入 🔹 CrowdStrike：AI驱动的安全需求持续转化为新增合同和ARR 🔹 Synopsys：随着AI芯片设计复杂度提升，EDA需求仍然保持韧性 🔹 Marvell：接下来则是观察网络连接与数据中心基础设施需求的重要窗口 这让我越来越确定一件事： AI行情正在从“讲故事”进入“验现金流”的阶段。 过去只要和AI、HBM、服务器、存储沾边，估值就可能快速扩张。 但现在资金开始问三个问题： 👉 真实订单在哪里？ 👉 客户续约在哪里？ 👉 自由现金流在哪里？ 这也是我选择 $SNDK 的原因。 SNDK此前已经因为AI服务器#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
🔥PCE data is out, inflation cooling has stalled, roughly the same as last month, still some distance from the 2% target. Market expectations for a rate hike in September have risen a bit.
This time, the Jackson Hole speech was overall hawkish, with no signals of easing 📢
1. Firm on the 2% inflation target; inflation is cooling slowly, so no casual rate cuts;
2. No clear timetable, taking it step by step, all depends on subsequent data;
3. Economic resilience remains, implying high rates will persist longer, not ruling out further hikes.
Inflation is not declining, so the Fed does not plan to ease in the short term. The dollar and U.S. Treasuries are likely to strengthen, putting short-term pressure on risk assets like crypto. Don't bet on immediate big easing; the market will likely continue to oscillate and grind, so avoid heavy positions blindly. Just took a look at the market, and it looks like a split to me.
Yesterday we were still discussing "when will $90,000 arrive," and today some are already asking "can $70,000 still be held?"
BTC surged to $81,000 then quickly pulled back.
Earlier this week, it briefly touched about $81,272, returning above $80,000 for the first time since May.
Then a hot inflation report interrupted this rally—July PCE rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.6%. Within hours of the data release, Bitcoin dropped from above $81,000 to below $78,000.
Currently hovering around $78,700.
I checked my account.
Still holding a small short position.
But I want to add more shorts—yet I have no USDT left.
So conflicted.
Can I still chase shorts?
Let's look at the facts first:
Short-term profit-taking is completely reasonable.
But one detail is worth noting: last week BTC spot ETFs saw inflows close to $2 billion, ETH ETFs about $697 million—real buying is indeed coming in. Meanwhile, BTC futures open interest dropped from 353,500 to 312,600 contracts, indicating leverage funds are cooling off while spot funds are stepping in.
What does this mean? It’s not a fake rally built on leverage; real money is supporting the bottom.
Andy Baehr from GSR believes that after Bitcoin broke through $80,000, the market has entered a "new phase"—ETF demand is recovering, liquidity is improving, and large-scale short covering is happening. These signs together indicate the market structure has become more favorable. The strangest AI memory bottleneck might be happening in decades-old technology.
Everyone is focused on HBM.
But the shortage seems to be spreading down the memory stack.
AI/server demand has absorbed leading DRAM capacity
↓
DDR4 supply is being squeezed
↓
Some buyers are turning to DDR3 redesigns
↓
DDR3 supply tightens
↓
Demand spills over to DDR2
Here’s the strange part:
Suppliers are simultaneously reducing some legacy capacity.
TrendForce estimates DDR2 contract prices rose 55–60% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 and may rise another 35–40% in Q3.
Meanwhile, $NVDA just reinforced the other side of the equation:
AI demand remains huge, and memory is becoming one of the bottlenecks limiting the speed of infrastructure stack scaling.
So the memory argument may no longer be:
"HBM demand is strong."
It might be:
"AI is pulling capacity upward so aggressively that shortages are spreading to memory generations no one expected to still matter."
This is the part I’m currently researching.
$NVDA $MU #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Behind the sharp rebound of the US Dollar Index: PCE slightly exceeds expectations, intensified bulls and bears battle, BTC faces a critical test
The US Dollar Index posted its largest single-day gain in nearly four weeks, rebounding from last week's low of 98.5 and holding above the 99 whole number level, reaching an intraday high of 99.25. The trigger for this volatility came from the US July core PCE inflation data.
The nuances of the inflation data
This PCE release showed: core PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%. This 0.1 percentage point slight increase directly pushed the dollar to a short-term rally.
However, many overlooked a key detail: the core PCE month-over-month rose by +0.2%, fully in line with expectations.
The Federal Reserve's policy decisions place more emphasis on month-over-month marginal changes; year-over-year readings are easily influenced by energy price base effects and have limited reference value.
Market pricing also confirms this: influenced by the data, the probability of a September rate hike only slightly rose from 36% to 40%.
Trading funds show a clear stance: inflation is slightly hotter, but not strong enough to force the Fed to tighten monetary policy immediately.
Three opposing forces tugging the dollar's movement
The bullish momentum from inflation is not unilaterally strong; currently, three major variables hedge against dollar strength:
1. The US and Iran reached a ceasefire framework consensus, with negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz navigation plan underway, causing international oil prices to plunge over 3%, and WTI crude oil falling back near $82. Lower oil prices reduce forward inflation expectations, directly weakening rate hike concerns driven by hotter PCE;
2. The US Q2 GDP preliminary reading at 1.5%, meeting expectations, with no stronger-than-expected economic growth to provide additional support for the dollar's rise;
3. Nvidia's Q2 earnings report is about to be released. Before this major announcement, funds remain cautious, making it difficult for the dollar to establish a clear one-sided trend.
Investment bank ING provides key reference levels: short-term resistance for the US Dollar Index at 99.00‑99.10, support at 98.60.
An important conclusion: even the slightly hotter inflation data failed to drive a significant dollar rally, indicating the market has likely priced in the peak of this rate hike cycle in advance.
Transmission impact on the crypto market (BTC)
Dollar strength brings direct pressure, with BTC retreating short-term from around 79,000.
Short-term market logic breakdown:
✅ Negative: dollar rebound, US Treasury yield volatility, risk asset valuations under pressure;
✅ Hedging positive: easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices, alleviating global inflationary pressure;
✅ Core variable: Nvidia's earnings report will be the key to breaking tonight's market situation.
The current market is caught in multiple macro factors pulling in different directions; a single indicator is hard to define the trend. $BTC short-term consolidation continues, with focus on fund choices after earnings release. Exercise caution near the edges of the consolidation range to avoid blind chasing of trades.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？