Orbit Post Sitemap
Having experienced the tech cycle of 2000, after watching Nvidia's market performance last night, I genuinely broke out in a cold sweat.
With 96.2 billion in revenue on the table, scaling up to a 5 trillion level, the after-hours trading showed a rollercoaster pattern of first dipping then rallying.
The market is flooded with unanimous voices: computing power demand continues to explode, hardware supply can't keep up, repeatedly emphasizing that this cycle's situation is completely different.
I've heard this narrative too many times.
Back in 2000, the market had the same rhetoric, the internet story was booming, and Cisco's equipment orders were pouring in. Looking back, the industry did indeed completely rewrite the world, but those who jumped in at the peak were trapped for a long time.
The long-term development logic of the sector is sound, but that doesn't mean entering at any price is reasonable.
I'm not bearish on the company itself, just seeing through the cycle of human nature. Every market frenzy phase always brings out the phrase "this time it's different."
The core hasn't changed; it's just wrapped in a new narrative shell.
The big picture can be accepted, but you must weigh the price carefully. In times of frenzy, you must hold onto your own judgment and not be pushed forward by collective emotion.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC It broke through 80,000 again, but only the spot position broke through 80,000; the contract did not. Let's look at the specific candlestick. You can see that the spot position broke through 80,000, but the contract had not yet broken through 80,000. Personally, I speculate that it might be because many long positions in the contract automatically take profit at 80,000, and the manipulators don't want to pull it to that level. If you think this way, then this rally could be a bullish trap. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. You can see that the contract open interest and long-short ratio are indeed declining simultaneously. This shows that during its rise, there are many long positions taking profit. This is definitely not a bullish factor. The market is like a spring; if the bulls' strength weakens significantly, the bears have a considerable advantage. —————————————————— After reviewing its long-term data, I also carefully examined its short-term data. Because Ethereum has seen a lot of buying in the short term, if Bitcoin also shows a lot of buying, then it's indeed very likely the bull market will return. However, unfortunately, I found that unlike Ethereum, it also has a lot of selling in a short period, and there isn't much buying interest. At this point, things get worse, because the two major market giants have inconsistent capital flows. So I think it's best to wait and wait for real market sentiment2026 Jackson Hole | Key Observations from Waller's Speech
Speech Time: 22:00 Beijing Time on August 28. This is the last major public statement before the September FOMC, with no direct announcement of rate decisions, only observing changes in tone and wording.
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
1. Three Core Issues (Most Concerned by the Market)
Inflation Assessment (Top Priority)
Key points to listen for: Whether inflation stickiness and high inflation risks are emphasized; whether it is acknowledged that inflation is continuing to fall toward 2%.
Crucial: Whether the option for further rate hikes is retained (not meaning an immediate hike, but keeping the possibility open).
September Rate Hike Signals (Waller's style is to minimize forward guidance)
Since taking office, Waller tends to downplay forward guidance and is unlikely to directly say whether there will be a hike in September. Focus on wording:
Repeated emphasis on data dependence: Neutral bias, maintaining status quo expectations
Emphasis on inflation risks > employment risks: Hawkish bias, increasing probability of a September hike
Mention of employment downside risks and policy lag effects: Dovish bias, cooling rate hike expectations.
Policy Communication Framework Changes
A major focus this term: Whether there is further explanation of "reducing forward guidance," giving the market less clear rate path guidance in the future, letting the market price based on economic data.
Important Reminder
Jackson Hole has no voting or dot plot; all statements are verbal from the Chair; the actual rate decision is at the September 17 FOMC meeting.
Market reaction depends on the difference from market expectations, not simply whether the speech is good or bad; if the market has already priced in hawkishness, even a hawkish speech may lead to selling the fact.$BTC is retesting the most important level of the entire cycle. Historically, once this position is broken, a major upward rally begins.
Let's start with the data. Coinbase premium has finally turned green, indicating that demand from U.S. institutions is returning. BTC's premium was clearly negative at the lows, but now institutions are even willing to pay a premium to buy in. Looking back historically, whenever the market is strong, the premium surges significantly, which is a positive fundamental signal for this rally.
Regarding order books, the spot sell wall of about $50 million to $70 million at $80,000 has been cleared. The biggest resistance above is near $80,600, where about $73 million in sell orders remain. The liquidation heatmap shows that a $3,000 upward move could trigger massive short squeezes, while a $3,000 drop has little short positions to clear. Therefore, I believe the price is more likely to first target the liquidity above.
For support, I still see the bottom range between $65,000 and $58,000, and below that, between $55,000 and $48,000. On the weekly chart, if BTC fails to break the previous high of $79,000, it will confirm a lower high, and the breakout of the supertrend and EMA bands will also fail. This could turn into a fake breakout followed by another downward move. Conversely, as long as this weekly liquidity zone is broken, it will flip into support, meaning entering a new range. Glassnode's latest report marks a critical lifeline: $81,000-$86,000.
This range converges four layers of selling pressure—cost basis layer, re-posted sell orders, options gamma flip level, and liquidation orders. With these four layers of resistance stacked together, breaking through all at once is almost impossible.
My judgment:
First target is 83,300; if it holds above and ETF inflows continue = trend established, looking at 90,000.
First support is 78,000; last night’s low of 77,600 was quickly bought back, indicating support here.
Extreme support at 70,000, the short-term holder cost basis; dropping to this level means this rebound is completely invalidated.
In an extremely greedy environment, the trading discipline is: cut position in half, tighten stop loss, do not chase highs, lightly buy on dips in the 78,000-77,000 range.
Don’t be friends with greed, be friends with discipline. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC $SOL This is the pace of takeoff! Solana's recent two governance proposals are worth paying attention to, because they're not just about changing a small parameter, but about adjusting SOL's future "supply and return model." Simply put, one is responsible for "issuing fewer tokens," the other is responsible for "burning more." 1. SIMD-550: Issuing fewer SOL in the future What SIMD-550 wants to do is accelerate the decline in Solana's inflation rate. It's easy to understand with real-life examples. Imagine Solana as a membership-based mall, with SOL like points in the mall. Previously, to encourage people to stay in the system long-term, the mall would give out lots of new points to old members every year, similar to staking rewards. Now, what SIMD-550 wants to do is: previously 100 points coupons a year, but maybe only 70 in the future. This way, holders receive less staking rewards, but at the same time, less new SOL is added in the market. So it's not simply "reducing staking yields," but rather trading lower new supply for stronger scarcity. 2. SIMD-553: Not Just Less Issuance, More Burn Another item, SIMD-553, is more like "burning." Let's use the mall example from earlier. Previously, every mall transaction would only burn a small portion of points. Now, they plan to take more points from transaction fees and invalidate them directly. That is: SIMD-550 is responsible for "printing a little less." SIMD-553 is responsible for "burning a bit more." Putting the two togetherThe short squeeze triggered the rally, $BTC needs to reclaim 83,300 to be considered strong again.
On August 19, the market saw the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019.
This liquidation directly pushed $BTC up 26% from the mid-month low.
During the same period, US spot ETFs had a weekly net inflow of $2.23 billion, setting the strongest record of the year.
BTC on exchanges continues to decrease, while wallets of various sizes are simultaneously accumulating.
All signs indicate that this rally is supported not only by a short squeeze but also by spot capital.
When the price reaches the dense supply zone between 81,000 and 86,000, holding costs, previous trapped positions, newly placed sell orders, option gamma flip points, and liquidation orders all converge here.
83,300 becomes the core battleground between bulls and bears!
Short liquidations can quickly push prices higher but cannot alone sustain a prolonged rally.
Key points to watch after the recent rebound:
- Whether BTC can stabilize above 83,300
- Whether ETF funds continue to flow in
If both conditions are met, it indicates the market is absorbing selling pressure above, giving BTC a chance to challenge 86,000.
If the price is pushed back below the resistance zone again, this rally will look more like an emotional recovery after a short squeeze.
70,000 will become the first important support, with extreme pullbacks requiring attention to the 62,000 to 65,000 range.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series 52】
7.8 months after exiting the 2019 bear bottom: the bull market recovery phase ended, the market probed the last pullback bottoming range before the main rise, creating an excellent 1.5-month trading window (ignoring the 3/12 black swan)
7.2 months after exiting the 2023 bear bottom: the bull market recovery phase ended, the market probed the last pullback bottoming range before the main rise, creating an excellent 2.2-month trading window
This cycle has been 0.25 months since exiting the bear bottom 全网都在喊 $NVDA “YYDS”，但我反而选择在 $SNDK 上做空。 不是我不看好 AI，而是这一轮财报让我看到一个明显变化： 市场已经不再奖励“沾上AI”这三个字，而是在筛选谁真正把AI变成了订单、收入和现金流。 英伟达最新财报依然强势，数据中心业务继续成为核心增长引擎，管理层对后续AI算力需求的判断也依旧乐观。 但更值得关注的是产业链其他环节： 🔹 Salesforce：AI相关产品商业化继续加速，Agentforce等产品开始贡献更明确的收入 🔹 CrowdStrike：AI驱动的安全需求持续转化为新增合同和ARR 🔹 Synopsys：随着AI芯片设计复杂度提升，EDA需求仍然保持韧性 🔹 Marvell：接下来则是观察网络连接与数据中心基础设施需求的重要窗口 这让我越来越确定一件事： AI行情正在从“讲故事”进入“验现金流”的阶段。 过去只要和AI、HBM、服务器、存储沾边，估值就可能快速扩张。 但现在资金开始问三个问题： 👉 真实订单在哪里？ 👉 客户续约在哪里？ 👉 自由现金流在哪里？ 这也是我选择 $SNDK 的原因。 SNDK此前已经因为AI服务器#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
🔥PCE data is out, inflation cooling has stalled, roughly the same as last month, still some distance from the 2% target. Market expectations for a rate hike in September have risen a bit.
This time, the Jackson Hole speech was overall hawkish, with no signals of easing 📢
1. Firm on the 2% inflation target; inflation is cooling slowly, so no casual rate cuts;
2. No clear timetable, taking it step by step, all depends on subsequent data;
3. Economic resilience remains, implying high rates will persist longer, not ruling out further hikes.
Inflation is not declining, so the Fed does not plan to ease in the short term. The dollar and U.S. Treasuries are likely to strengthen, putting short-term pressure on risk assets like crypto. Don't bet on immediate big easing; the market will likely continue to oscillate and grind, so avoid heavy positions blindly. Just took a look at the market, and it looks like a split to me.
Yesterday we were still discussing "when will $90,000 arrive," and today some are already asking "can $70,000 still be held?"
BTC surged to $81,000 then quickly pulled back.
Earlier this week, it briefly touched about $81,272, returning above $80,000 for the first time since May.
Then a hot inflation report interrupted this rally—July PCE rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.6%. Within hours of the data release, Bitcoin dropped from above $81,000 to below $78,000.
Currently hovering around $78,700.
I checked my account.
Still holding a small short position.
But I want to add more shorts—yet I have no USDT left.
So conflicted.
Can I still chase shorts?
Let's look at the facts first:
Short-term profit-taking is completely reasonable.
But one detail is worth noting: last week BTC spot ETFs saw inflows close to $2 billion, ETH ETFs about $697 million—real buying is indeed coming in. Meanwhile, BTC futures open interest dropped from 353,500 to 312,600 contracts, indicating leverage funds are cooling off while spot funds are stepping in.
What does this mean? It’s not a fake rally built on leverage; real money is supporting the bottom.
Andy Baehr from GSR believes that after Bitcoin broke through $80,000, the market has entered a "new phase"—ETF demand is recovering, liquidity is improving, and large-scale short covering is happening. These signs together indicate the market structure has become more favorable. The strangest AI memory bottleneck might be happening in decades-old technology.
Everyone is focused on HBM.
But the shortage seems to be spreading down the memory stack.
AI/server demand has absorbed leading DRAM capacity
↓
DDR4 supply is being squeezed
↓
Some buyers are turning to DDR3 redesigns
↓
DDR3 supply tightens
↓
Demand spills over to DDR2
Here’s the strange part:
Suppliers are simultaneously reducing some legacy capacity.
TrendForce estimates DDR2 contract prices rose 55–60% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 and may rise another 35–40% in Q3.
Meanwhile, $NVDA just reinforced the other side of the equation:
AI demand remains huge, and memory is becoming one of the bottlenecks limiting the speed of infrastructure stack scaling.
So the memory argument may no longer be:
"HBM demand is strong."
It might be:
"AI is pulling capacity upward so aggressively that shortages are spreading to memory generations no one expected to still matter."
This is the part I’m currently researching.
$NVDA $MU #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Behind the sharp rebound of the US Dollar Index: PCE slightly exceeds expectations, intensified bulls and bears battle, BTC faces a critical test
The US Dollar Index posted its largest single-day gain in nearly four weeks, rebounding from last week's low of 98.5 and holding above the 99 whole number level, reaching an intraday high of 99.25. The trigger for this volatility came from the US July core PCE inflation data.
The nuances of the inflation data
This PCE release showed: core PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%. This 0.1 percentage point slight increase directly pushed the dollar to a short-term rally.
However, many overlooked a key detail: the core PCE month-over-month rose by +0.2%, fully in line with expectations.
The Federal Reserve's policy decisions place more emphasis on month-over-month marginal changes; year-over-year readings are easily influenced by energy price base effects and have limited reference value.
Market pricing also confirms this: influenced by the data, the probability of a September rate hike only slightly rose from 36% to 40%.
Trading funds show a clear stance: inflation is slightly hotter, but not strong enough to force the Fed to tighten monetary policy immediately.
Three opposing forces tugging the dollar's movement
The bullish momentum from inflation is not unilaterally strong; currently, three major variables hedge against dollar strength:
1. The US and Iran reached a ceasefire framework consensus, with negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz navigation plan underway, causing international oil prices to plunge over 3%, and WTI crude oil falling back near $82. Lower oil prices reduce forward inflation expectations, directly weakening rate hike concerns driven by hotter PCE;
2. The US Q2 GDP preliminary reading at 1.5%, meeting expectations, with no stronger-than-expected economic growth to provide additional support for the dollar's rise;
3. Nvidia's Q2 earnings report is about to be released. Before this major announcement, funds remain cautious, making it difficult for the dollar to establish a clear one-sided trend.
Investment bank ING provides key reference levels: short-term resistance for the US Dollar Index at 99.00‑99.10, support at 98.60.
An important conclusion: even the slightly hotter inflation data failed to drive a significant dollar rally, indicating the market has likely priced in the peak of this rate hike cycle in advance.
Transmission impact on the crypto market (BTC)
Dollar strength brings direct pressure, with BTC retreating short-term from around 79,000.
Short-term market logic breakdown:
✅ Negative: dollar rebound, US Treasury yield volatility, risk asset valuations under pressure;
✅ Hedging positive: easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices, alleviating global inflationary pressure;
✅ Core variable: Nvidia's earnings report will be the key to breaking tonight's market situation.
The current market is caught in multiple macro factors pulling in different directions; a single indicator is hard to define the trend. $BTC short-term consolidation continues, with focus on fund choices after earnings release. Exercise caution near the edges of the consolidation range to avoid blind chasing of trades.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码 Everyone, the Hormuz route has moved forward again.
Iran and Oman have established a framework for a temporary joint corridor and joint mine clearance, but Iran emphasizes that this does not mean a full reopening of the Strait and still demands that the US lift the maritime blockade. Meanwhile, the US continues to expand sanctions, listing nearly 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, strengthening restrictions on oil, shipping, finance, and cross-border payment channels.
The expectation of navigation is driving oil prices down consecutively, but whether sanctions can truly reduce Iran's exports remains the key variable on the supply side.
The key now is that being able to ship and being able to sell oil are two different matters. The temporary corridor resuming transport lowers shipping costs, but if financial sanctions prevent oil from being traded and settled, supply still cannot come out. Whether oil prices can continue to fall depends on the enforcement strength of the sanctions. Whether the safe-haven logic of gold and BTC can fade also depends on whether this gap will be closed.
For BTC, this matter is short-term neutral; we will wait until the actual navigation of the corridor and the enforcement of sanctions become clear. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC Global physical gold ETF inflows last week look like more than just a defensive move.
With Citi pointing to futures-led momentum while Asian physical demand remains soft, the latest strength appears increasingly driven by institutional allocation rather than broad end-user demand.
BTC holding near its rebound highs adds an interesting test: if gold and spot BTC ETF flows strengthen together, it could suggest investors are expanding exposure to alteWhale high-level accumulation and full staking are tightening $HYPE's OTC spot liquidity. The core market conflict lies in the effectiveness of institutional defense at the $65.6 cost line and the willingness of secondary market follow-up funds to support.
Institutional addresses added 282,000 $HYPE at an average price of $81.5 and staked them all, removing a total of $381 million in chips from secondary market spot circulation, directly weakening immediate selling pressure at high levels.
Capital flow and locked staking structure constitute the current dominant variables. Staking lock-up has locked out large spot supply, amplifying the sensitivity of buy-side depth.
The bullish scenario requires spot buying to form a second volume increase above the $81.5 average price, combined with a steady rise in derivatives open interest rather than a liquidation-driven surge. If spot depth supports the price to hold above the $85 threshold, the supply tightness caused by chip lock-up will push the price to new highs. The invalidation signal for this scenario is a rapid shrinkage of spot trading volume at high levels accompanied by large net outflows.
The bearish scenario triggers when overall market liquidity tightens, causing derivatives long positions to passively retreat toward the institutional cost line. If the price breaks below the $70 support zone and approaches the $65.6 comprehensive position cost line, profit-taking and liquidation pressure will test whether the institutional $65.6 chip concentration area can provide actual buy-side support. The invalidation signal for this scenario is continuous large spot order interceptions near $70.
If the $65.6 comprehensive cost line is effectively broken, it indicates the psychological defense line of $74.4 million unrealized gains has failed, and market liquidity preference will completely shift to defense.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, focus on observing changes in net spot buying volume between $70 and $81.5, as well as any abnormal unstaking and locked fund outflows from staking addresses.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款July PCE was higher than forecast but not enough to change Fed expectations for September, with about a 63–64% probability of holding rates steady. BTC adjusted down to $78.7K, with key support at $78K; gold dropped to $4,610 but remains unalarming.
US stocks recovered thanks to Nvidia beating expectations, while Brent crude fell as tensions in Hormuz eased.
The market trend remains intact but volatility and asset correlations are quite unpredictable, so it’s best to reduce positions and wait for signals from Jackson Hole.The Treasury wants to use TGA to buy back long-term bonds, which sounds like firefighting, but a closer look shows it's more like the bond market forcing the authorities to take a stance.
The problem with long-term bonds has never been just "fewer buyers today." The market demands confidence in future fiscal discipline. Deficits, inflation, debt issuance scale, term premiums—all these factors combined make yields look ugly.
TGA can temporarily inject liquidity into the market to keep long-term rates from being too glaring. But if investors don't have an answer to "how will the US debt be resolved," buybacks can only ease volatility, not solve the root problem.
This issue is important for both BTC and gold. Because when the bond market starts doubting paper promises, the market instinctively looks for another anchor. The problem is, that anchor can also become overpriced.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ I find today's market movement even more interesting.
After Nvidia's earnings report was released, the market's feedback was very direct: AI demand is still there, and storage has clearly become a bottleneck. Nvidia's supply chain commitment jumped from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion, more than doubling, mainly to secure key capacities including memory.
So it's not surprising that Micron, SanDisk, and Hynix all rose to varying degrees today. Especially since Nvidia itself emphasized tight memory supply, this is a strong fundamental confirmation for the storage sector.
I now feel that the previous adjustment was more about valuation cuts rather than logic cuts. The stock price will definitely fluctuate in the short term, but as AI computing power continues to expand, demand for HBM and DRAM is unlikely to suddenly fade.
So regarding the storage sector, I still say: don't be scared out by short-term volatility; the real story may just be beginning.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $BTC $ETH $SOL
Bitcoin is rising again and again
No nonsense, just asking a basic question
What do you think is the final decision of Walsh?
Share the understanding of the experts.
"Rate cut + balance sheet reduction"
Many believe the market expects rate hikes mainly because the Strait caused inflation, which intensified this expectation, but I want to say, the Strait is just a tool.
The Strait was created by Trump, and Walsh was also nominated by Trump. Walsh has been aligned with Trump from the start; Walsh himself advocates rate cuts + balance sheet reduction. So would Walsh be embarrassed to take office in a high inflation environment? Definitely not, Walsh will only make hawkish statements, but the final decision will inevitably be dovish.
Essentially, it’s one thing
Walsh is here to maintain the status of the dollar and the Federal Reserve. Taking advantage of the Strait closure, which caused everyone to hold a large amount of dollar assets, increasing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds to everyone is what he wants most. But whether to cut rates first then reduce the balance sheet, or reduce the balance sheet first then cut rates, depends on how they play it out. Personally, I think the former is more likely, after all, Trump wants to be re-elected. So according to my personal speculation, short-term bullish, but after balance sheet reduction and if the U.S. itself stops buying Treasuries, that will be the start of a big drop…
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $SNDK SanDisk really came through today, pulling up like this.
It was worth it that I didn’t dare to short you during your low point last night.
Seriously, SanDisk’s rise is related to solid positive news. Nvidia’s earnings report last night was explosive, with revenue of 96.2 billion, exceeding expectations by 4 billion. Our procurement commitments jumped from 119 billion directly to 279 billion, more than doubling, mainly for memory purchases. This is the key reason for the rise.
Today, SanDisk’s alliance plans to invest over 1 trillion yen in Japan to build a third wafer fab. Although this is an expansion, the market interprets it as the company having extreme confidence in future demand.
These are all positive pieces of information. A brother told me SanDisk might reach 1900 in the short term, but I don’t think so. I don’t even think it can return to 1800. The market funds are limited; with Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming active, the attention SanDisk can get is limited. Bullish, but don’t get carried away chasing highs. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Looking back at the last bull market, there were actually many details.
In May 2020, BTC completed its halving, and the second half of the year slowly started a bull run. By early 2021, Musk frequently mentioned $BTC and $DOGE, completely igniting market sentiment. In just a few months, BTC surged from $20,000 to around $60,000.
That round saw altcoins and Memes go crazy, with $SHIB even yielding returns of 100,000 times for some.
Then came the big crash in May, which veteran traders should never forget as 5/18.
BTC's lowest point dropped back to around $28,000, and market panic reached its peak. After about two months of volatility, the market warmed up again, eventually surging to $69,000 in November 2021, marking the end of the last bull market.
Looking at this round.
In April 2024, BTC halving occurred, and the real key catalyst appeared in the second half of the year with Trump's presidential campaign. After the market was sideways for over half a year, BTC broke through $100,000 following Trump's successful election.
It then retraced from around $100,000 down to $80,000, and by October 2025, it surged to challenge $120,000.
You will find that this round shares quite a few similarities with the late stage structure of the last bull market.
At $83,000, I consider it an important watershed. Placing a stop loss and lightly shorting here is somewhat like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword.
Midterm elections, US-Iran situation, dollar trends, inflation, Federal Reserve policies—any one of these variables could cause the market to experience severe volatility again. #PCEToJacksonHole US core PCE inflation rose 3.3% year over year in July, matching both the previous reading and market expectations, while the monthly increase was 0.2%. Second-quarter GDP growth remained at an annualized 1.5%. The combination shows that inflation is no longer accelerating sharply, but it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target while economic growth is relatively modest.
Attention now turns to Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Markets want to know whether persistent inflation is enough to justify another rate increase or whether slower growth supports keeping policy unchanged. September hike expectations edged higher following the data, but Warsh’s policy framework may matter more than one economic release. A hawkish message could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold and crypto, while a balanced tone may support risk assets. Clear guidance would reduce uncertainty; vague guidance could increase volatility across bonds, equities and Bitcoin.Anthropic又开始疯狂抢算力了。 最新消息，Anthropic与数据中心运营商Nscale达成一笔 450亿美元、为期6年的算力协议 。 这次抢的不是现在的GPU。 而是直接锁定英伟达下一代 Vera Rubin 算力。 项目预计从2027年底开始交付，规模约 460MW 。 更值得注意的是时间点。 就在刚刚，英伟达披露： 未来供应和产能采购承诺，已经从1190亿美元暴增至2790亿美元。 英伟达在抢内存和制造产能。 现在它的大客户，又开始提前抢英伟达未来几年的算力。 而Anthropic此前还已经承诺租用超过 1500亿美元的Google AI芯片算力 。 也就是说： 上游在抢芯片、抢内存。 下游在抢未来几年的算力。 市场还在讨论AI资本开支什么时候见顶。 但真金白银给出的答案却是： 巨头不但没停，反而已经开始抢2027年以后的产能了。 对英伟达、HBM、服务器DRAM以及整个数据中心产业链来说， 这可能才是最硬的需求信号。 $NVDA $SNDK $SKHYNIX #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ ETH 的持仓量在价格新高附近悄悄膨胀，而资金费率却没有跟上——这种"冷静的杠杆"往往比狂欢更值得警惕。 你有没有想过，为什么 ETH 明明突破了关键均线，空头却还在源源不断地被清算而不是主动撤退？ 我一直在盯着衍生品这块看，因为价格可以骗人，但仓位很难。ETH 这轮上涨最让我在意的不是 K 线多漂亮，而是合约市场里那些被反复挤压的空头——每次价格稍微回踩，爆仓量就涌出来，这种被动平仓带来的买盘，比主动追高的资金更说明问题。 从结构上拆解一下现在的状态： - 价格站稳长期均线，底部积累区没有松动，说明大资金的中期成本线已经抬升，这不是短线游资能画出来的形状。 - 资金费率维持在中性偏暖的区间，没有过热到让人想反向做空的地步，这意味着多头还有继续加仓的空间，杠杆尚未失控。 - 现货 ETF 的净流入没有断，机构买盘更像是"慢慢吸"而不是"一把梭"，这种节奏通常对应更持久的趋势。 但这里有个容易被忽略的脆弱点：如果 ETH 继续上行，上方那个历史成交密集区会变成天然的清算池，一旦价格触碰那里，合约市场的波动率会被瞬间放大——不是所有突破都值得追，有些突破只是给杠杆玩家准备的陷阱。 偏多逻辑Andy Bell, Director of GSR Asset Management, confirmed that Bitcoin has entered a new trading phase after breaking through the $80,000 mark, with a substantial shift in the underlying structure. On Monday, Bitcoin's price reached $81,272, marking the first test of this key level since May. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded nearly $2 billion in net inflows over five consecutive trading days, confirming a return in institutional demand. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that as prices rose, about $1.06 billion in positions were liquidated, combined with options activity and rising perpetual contract financing fees, indicating a broad support base for the rebound. GSR's Core3 strategy covers Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, with Solana accounting for 44% of the allocation. Investors are turning their attention to blockchain networks that support tokenization technology and stablecoins. On the regulatory front, Andy Bell supports the U.S. Clarity Act to clarify the responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Additionally, the macro backdrop of $40 trillion in U.S. debt further heightens attention to scarce assets. Traditional investors hold Bitcoin indirectly through ETFs, driving diversification of capital flows. Blockchain networks are being revalued because they carry payment and application functions. This marks a key turning point after institutional entry and the market's shift from a single monetary attribute to infrastructure valueInvestors are abandoning the "choose one" logic and instead betting on both gold and Bitcoin. Over the past five trading days, ETFs tracking these two asset groups have attracted about $7 billion in inflows, setting a record and pushing some of the largest gold and Bitcoin funds to the top of this week's U.S. ETF inflow rankings. The direct trigger for this wave of funds was Treasury Secretary Becent's announcement of plans to at least double the size of long-term Treasury bond repurchases. This news initially suppressed U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while also driving gold and Bitcoin prices sharply, providing investors seeking "hard-to-reach" assets to enter the market. Currently, gold has risen about 13% this month, recently breaking through $4,600 per ounce; Bitcoin has climbed back above the $80,000 mark. Both assets have risen simultaneously, marking the return of "currency debasement trades"—that is, amid increasing fiscal pressure and loosening financial conditions, the appeal of scarce assets with limited supply outside the government monetary system is rising. This renewed logic is reshaping investors' asset allocation orientation. $XAU Records Record Inflow: Gold and Bitcoin ETFs Both Rank in the Top Ten of the Weekly List. According to Bloomberg compilation data, over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $7 billion, setting a new record. Among them, the SPDR Gold ETF under State Street Management attracted nearly $3.4 billion, ranking among the top US ETF inflows this week, just behind V$KO Underlying Strategy Differences: Cost Control vs. Aggressive Expansion, Coca‑Cola Breaks Out Independently
Both are giants, but their business paths are completely divergent.
Coca‑Cola opts to strictly control mid-level expenses and optimize internal operational efficiency; Meta invests heavily in AI computing power data center construction, while Tesla continues to ramp up its robotics and autonomous taxi services.
In an environment of rising macro uncertainty, a lean cost structure and stable cash flow business strategy allow Coca‑Cola to demonstrate defensive value, with capital favoring low-volatility, predictable profit models.
This is also the typical logic of traditional consumer goods upgrading and transformation: not relying on grand technological narratives, but on operational efficiency and product structure optimization to deliver results. $xSPCX private placement token, liquidity premium is high
Current price $140.70, 24h +1.89%. SpaceX closed at $135 on 8/13, premium +4.61% (close to 5%).
1. This is a token representing private company equity. The underlying SPCX itself experienced a 911.5M share unlock on 8/6, rising from $108 all the way up to $135. This round of private placement tokens is more stable than the public market because the token market has no on-exchange sell pressure (tokens received by private placement shareholders are locked).
2. Analyst reasonable valuation ranges are very divided: Bernstein $248 (Morgan Stanley gives $300), Morningstar gives $62. The space company is not like a pure tech stock; the valuation differences among rockets + Starlink + xAI are huge, so SPCX's implied value is a "spectrum," and the $135 price roughly falls in the median valuation.
3. Risk points: Another unlock wave on 8/20 (about 455.8M shares, conditional unlock); Elon Musk himself holds 40% locked until 2027/6/12, but other employees and old shareholders are not locked so strictly.
Operational idea: xSPCX is not a pure crypto trading asset, it is a "private placement exposure token." If you are optimistic about SpaceX before the 2027 IPO, waiting for a pullback to $120-125 is safer. $SOL has surged again with the main force!!!
NVDA's earnings report beta overflow. Nvidia's after-hours results far exceeded expectations (Q2 +106%, Q3 guidance 108 billion), AI/tech sector all in the green, SOL is a high-beta asset, rising much more sharply than BTC.
Spot ETFs are continuously accumulating. The US SOL spot ETF has had consecutive days of net inflows, with a record single-day trading volume of 167 million on 8/24, cumulative net inflows have exceeded 1.67 billion, cumulative net inflows have surpassed 1B+; BSOL staking ETF weekly net inflows consistently exceed $20M. Institutions are not just here for a day.No wonder Maji wanted to acquire Racer and Paradigm today; it turns out he was stuck with so much himself.
Previously, he spent about $16.7 million to buy 11 million $FRIEND tokens, and now the loss has exceeded $16 million.
Today, he directly offered $1 million, wanting to buy the project back and run it himself.
This move somewhat means "losing so much, might as well be the house myself."
After he sent this message, $FRIEND directly surged from 0.00472 to 0.096, a 20x increase,
Bought in at the bottom and got stuck.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ There's a phrase crypto traders have repeated every cycle for years: altcoin season. The idea that once the big names run out of steam, capital cascades down into everything else, lifting hundreds of smaller tokens at once. That pattern hasn't disappeared entirely — but the data right now suggests it's being replaced by something narrower, and arguably more permanent. The New Hierarchy Right now, three names are absorbing the bulk of institutional attention: $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. Today's price aJust saw Huang's speech. As a long-time trapped retail investor, my first reaction wasn't excitement but a bit of confusion. I quickly checked my positions, luckily I didn't sell at a loss yesterday.
Honestly, Huang Renxun's "AI inflection point theory" this time feels completely different from his previous slogans. Before, when he said "the beginning of the AI revolution," it sounded like empty promises, and the market only reacted briefly; this time he directly said "computing power equals revenue," and that AI-generated tokens are creating profits. Translated into plain language: AI is no longer a money-burning toy; it has started to make money and support itself.
The pre-market surge, Nvidia up nearly 6%, but the strongest gains were actually in previously heavily beaten-down storage (Micron, SK Hynix) and CPO (AAOI up over 6%). What does this mean? The market is no longer speculating on concepts; funds are desperately replenishing physical-layer assets with visible orders. Who's swimming naked, who really has inventory, is clear at a glance.
To put it plainly, the logic behind this rally has shifted from storytelling to accounting. Everyone is betting on next month's earnings season, seeing whose orders will materialize. Storage manufacturers like Micron rising means the market is confirming the hard logic that "supply tightness will continue for several more years." $MU $SKHYNIX 🔥SOL is gaining strength against the trend, how high can it surge in the short term?
Recently, SOL has truly been the most resilient among mainstream coins. When BTC dropped from 80,000, it was still rising. Now the price has reached $104, with a 24-hour increase of 5.3% and a weekly gain of 19%, outperforming ETH and BNB.
This rally is mainly due to three overlapping factors: first, macro liquidity improved last week, US Treasury yields fell, and risk assets rose accordingly; second, the SEC released new proposed crypto regulations, boosting market sentiment and heavily squeezing shorts, with $3.1 billion in short positions liquidated in 24 hours; third, there is news from SOL’s own ecosystem—South Korea’s KG Group plans to use SOL for digital asset payments, and a new Solana ecosystem data platform has launched, increasing attention.
However, don’t get too greedy in the short term; watch out for several risks: first, the Federal Reserve Chair is scheduled to speak on Friday, and rate hike expectations have resurfaced. Short-term US Treasury yields are already rising, which is unfavorable for risk assets; second, the daily chart is already overbought, and QCP Capital says this rally is mainly short covering, not new buying. Whether it can hold above $100 depends on ETF inflows.
In the short term, watch the $95 support—if it breaks, a pullback to around $90 is possible. If it can hold above the previous high of $102, it might push toward $110. Don’t chase the highs; wait for a pullback. $SOL Jingyi's long position strategy reminder: the pullback is weak, enter long on BTC at 785, the 80,000 threshold breakthrough is imminent! First target at 1400 points, continue to watch the 812 resistance level on the upside
$BTC $ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Just now, I saw two influential figures in the circle give completely opposite judgments, which was quite overwhelming for a moment. One said the bear market is not over yet, while the other left only four words—the bear market is over. The long positions in hand are still hanging—should they cash in or wait and see? This dilemma is probably the common feeling among many holders at this moment. Let's first talk about the source of the disagreement. CZ was cautious at the SALT Jackson Hole meeting, saying that Bitcoin's "supercycle" has not truly materialized, and the market still follows the routine of a four-year cycle, currently in a bear market phase. He specifically mentioned a detail: as asset volumes grow, price volatility will gradually narrow, and the switch between bulls and bears will no longer be as swift and decisive as before. This remark is more like a reminder not to expect too much from a violent rebound. Another person expressed his attitude with real money. In June this year, he spent $117 million to buy Ethereum near $1,660, while also investing $60.29 million to buy 966 WBTC. By July, he gradually transferred 36,600 ETH and 160 WBTC to Binance, clearly taking profits. Someone who bought at the bottom with real money and cashed out during the rebound said the bear market was over is certainly a heavy burden. Both sides sound reasonable, but the market's truth often lies in a single judgment. Glassnode's on-chain data offers a more neutral perspective: the current on-chain structure is notBTC at $79,800, chase or not?
First, look at the surface: it rallies fast, then stops even faster.
Since August 19, with the White House crypto policy + Treasury repo + short squeeze all hitting at once, the price surged from 64,000 to 81,200, a 25% increase in one week. Then? It failed to close above 80,000 for two consecutive days, now stuck at 79,800, caught in a dilemma. RSI hit 82, seriously overbought.
First thing: this rally is justified, but the fuel is burned out.
The White House hinted "strategic Bitcoin reserves may actually buy BTC," the Treasury suppressed long-term bond yields to add liquidity, and the short squeeze triggered the largest single-day forced liquidation since 2019.
Then? 81,200 surged and pulled back, closing below 80,000 for two days straight.
Because retail investors are FOMO chasing highs, while institutions quietly sell above 80,000.
ETF net inflows continued for 7-8 days, totaling $2.2-2.8 billion, but by August 26, it dropped back to $232 million — buying is still there, but the slope is down. The strongest short squeeze rocket has burned out; expecting the same intensity again is unrealistic.
Second thing: PCE data is uncooperative, Friday's speech is the main event.
Just released July PCE: total PCE YoY 3.7% (expected 3.6%), core 3.3%, inflation stuck between 3.3%-3.7%. Once the report came out, the probability of a September rate hike jumped to 40%.
But the bigger event is tomorrow — Friday (August 28) at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first keynote speech, topic directly "Financial Innovation and Payment Policy."
If dovish/liquidity innovation → another push above 80,000
If hawkish/inflation stubborn → first pull back to 76,000 or even 75,000
Third thing: technicals have already told you the answer.
Daily RSI 79-82, seriously overbought.
The candlestick pattern is a typical "rally then pullback with flag consolidation," no volume breakdown below 77,800 means no bearish reversal, no volume close above 81,200 means no second main rally wave.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
7-8 days continuous ETF net inflows, totaling $2.2-2.8 billion
White House policy warming, "strategic BTC reserve" narrative brewing
Mid-term structure turned bullish, 50-day/200-day moving averages bullish alignment
Open interest denominated in BTC down 11%, leverage not maxed out
On the other side:
RSI 80+ extremely overbought, failed twice at 81,200
PCE above expectations, rate hike probability up to 40%
Friday Warsh speech is huge uncertainty
80,100-86,000 is a dense trapped zone, real selling pressure
Resistance above: 80,000-80,500 → 81,200 (critical line) → 82,800 → 86,000
Support below: 77,800-78,500 → 76,500-75,500 → 73,000-74,000
Trading strategy
For those with low-position longs:
Reduce position to lock in profits, keep 1/3-1/2 to watch structure. Cost basis lowered to safe zone, don't gamble before Friday's speech.
For those with no position:
Don't be a hero at RSI 80. Wait for pullback to 77,800-76,500 with volume contraction before entering, stop loss if daily close below 74,800. Cleaner entry at 75,500-76,000 if speech is hawkish.
Breakout chasing:
Only chase if daily close holds above 81,200 and pullback doesn't break 80,000, target 82,800-86,000.
Short-term high short:
If rebound to 80,500-81,200 with volume failing to rise and RSI divergence, lightly short with stop loss above 81,800, target 78,500-76,500.
Risk control iron rules:
Reduce leverage below 5x before Friday's speech, don't gamble with 20x on news
Use "closing price + structure" for stop loss in event-driven moves, avoid being shaken out by intraday spikes
Single trade risk no more than 1%-1.5% of principal
This rally from 63,000, with real ETF money + policy narrative + short squeeze, is more like the first phase of a new risk appetite recovery, not a bull trap. The real confirmation of bull market return is holding above 83,000 (near 365-day moving average).
Short term: at 79,800, bulls have eaten the fattest part, bears dare not short aggressively in the trend. The optimal solution is to wait for pullback then rise, not chase now.
Those who can control their hands at 80,500 can calmly bottom fish at 75,500.
What's your BTC cost basis now?
Friday Warsh speech, are you bullish or bearish? $BTC $SOL $ETH #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC $ETH $SOL
Today's PCE data in the US did not "shock," but it was sufficiently unpleasant.
Inflation remains stubborn, and Q2 GDP grew only 1.5%. Personally, I think the problem lies here: the Federal Reserve wants to ease policy to support growth, but the data has not yet allowed them to do so easily.
Therefore, BTC falling below $80,000 is not too surprising. The market is not weak; rather, expectations that the Fed will soon ease policy have been pulled back.
It is still too early to talk about stagflation, but if inflation continues to be this stubborn, the situation will be more concerning.
I still tend to continue observing subsequent data rather than rushing to predict BTC's trend.
Source: Reuters Image | US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: This is information sharing and does not constitute investment advice; please do your own research $ETH surged strongly, just hitting a high of 2545, almost breaking the previous high!
Just now, ETH suddenly rallied, and many might have missed a detail: around 4 PM, it coincided with the important time window for options daily expiration/settlement.
This created a combination that easily amplifies the market: support confirmation → 2500 breakout → short stop-loss → long follow-up → options hedging funds amplifying the move. So I don't think this sudden rally was just a pure sentiment-driven pump.
Especially since ETH has clearly outperformed BTC earlier, market funds are already focused on ETH. Once it breaks the key resistance level, the hedging demand in the derivatives market could further accelerate the price.
Long positions can take short-term profits first, then wait for the direction after the US stock market opens tonight, and continue to watch the 2500 support!
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Sisters, today I'm splitting a separate stock: $PUMP. It's not an "asset" like BTC or ETH; it's the platform token pump.fun the largest meme launchpad on Solana. You've probably seen how crazily it has risen in the past month—30 days +181%, 7 days +80%, nearly quadrupling from the June low. But the more FOMO pushes the stock, the more you need to see your bottom line. I'll help you break down this project from tokenomics, unlocks, moats to risks, and finally give me a price range I can accept. PUMP is currently 1.8B, but its fully diluted valuation (FDV) is as high as $4.5–5.0B, because only ~40% of the 1 trillion total supply is in circulation, with more than half still locked. My core judgment: this is a stock with real income and a burn mechanism, but unlocking dilution and income cycle risk is still ongoing. Short-term RSI 78–82 is already overbought; today's -5.9% is profit-taking. It's not that it can't be played, but don't chase it on the emotional peak; wait for a pullback and more. Who is it: pump.fun This business pump.fun is a meme coin launchpad on Solana, launching in January 2024. Anyone can issue a token for about $2 per minute, automatically priced by bonding curves. When the coin reaches a threshold, it "graduates" and goes to the secondary market for trading. The key turning point is 202Another 5000u pocketed!
From 78667 long → 79800 exit, 1133 points space
Old fans know the Godfather is always steady, first securing profits safely to trade without pressure, so he can be calm.
The market is fair to everyone; some people keep stop-lossing back and forth and miss out entirely, while others steadily take this wave of the trend. The difference lies in understanding the trend rhythm and strict execution ability! $BTC $ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 PCE really didn't give the market any face this time.
US July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core PCE was even 3.3%, showing inflation hasn't continued to decline.
On the other hand, the second estimate of Q2 GDP was only 1.5%, indicating a clear slowdown in economic growth.
This is awkward: inflation is still sticky, but the economy is starting to cool down.
The market naturally began to reprice the "stagflation" logic, with September rate cut expectations being lowered and rate hike expectations rising to about 40%. The dollar strengthened, US Treasury yields rose, and US stocks came under pressure.
BTC couldn't remain unaffected either.
On August 25, it once surged near $81,000, but after the PCE release, it fell back to $78,500–$79,000.
The real key now is not simply whether rates will be cut or not, but whether the Fed dares to remain hawkish going forward.
The Jackson Hole meeting has already started, and the speech by Wash on Friday is especially important.
If hawkish signals continue, $80,000 will likely be contested repeatedly, and it’s even possible to see another downward search for support.
This wave of $BTC is once again being driven by macro variables. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 【Two things the market focused on yesterday】
The first was the PCE data, 3.3%, in line with expectations.
The second was Nvidia's earnings report, which was overall positive. However, after the earnings release, the stock price initially dipped slightly and only started to rise after the earnings call ended at 5 a.m.
Is the earnings call important? Very important.
The earnings report tables tell you "how much money was made in the past," while the call explains "what future demand looks like, whether growth can continue, and what risks remain." One key reason for the stock's initial drop and subsequent rise was the CFO providing a strong outlook for future growth during the call.
Currently, the pool of capital flows is simple: U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto. Old Wang is still selling expectations, proving that demand for AI remains very strong.
Tonight at 8:30 p.m. there will be unemployment claims data. But macro analysis is macro analysis; looking back at the K-line, there is still no short-selling structure.
What counts as a short or reversal structure?
• 【Head and Shoulders Top】: Right shoulder lower than the head, confirmed after breaking the neckline.
• 【Double Top / M Top】: The second rally fails to surpass the previous high, confirmed after breaking the middle low.
• 【Triple Top】: Multiple failed attempts to break the same resistance level.
• 【Rounded Top】: The uptrend gradually slows and then turns downward.
• 【Sharp Top / V-shaped Reversal】: Rapid rally followed by a quick drop, often with high volume.
• 【False Breakout of Previous High】: Breaks previous high but immediately retreats, forming a bull trap.
• 【Rising Wedge】: Price continues to make new highs, but the slope and momentum weaken, turning bearish after breaking the lower boundary.
No short signals yet. If it rallies 10,000 points and then pulls back 2,000 points, you say it’s a top?
People say "the butt decides the head," which is a compliment. A person's stance, interests, and position determine their views and thoughts. But you don’t have to have crap in your head, right? Even a slap to the face hurts, and you can always smell crap in your pants.
I haven’t gotten on board yet, but I won’t short. I’m still waiting for tonight’s data. After the data is released and during the U.S. market session, I’ll start considering going long.
The above content is only personal market analysis and trading ideas and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation. Core Logic, Practical Insights, and Follow-up Operation Suggestions for the Recent Surge in BTC and ETH Mainstream Coins
⚠️ Market review only, does not constitute investment advice
I. Core Reasons for the Recent Surge in Mainstream Coins
1. Macro liquidity expectations warming up
The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of U.S. debt repurchase, leading to market expectations of ample USD liquidity, U.S. Treasury yields declined, risk appetite increased, and crypto assets benefited directly as high-risk assets. Coupled with Nvidia's Q2 earnings far exceeding expectations, the AI sector sentiment exploded, further boosting the overall risk market recovery. However, note this is expectation-driven; rate cuts have not actually been implemented.
2. ETF institutional funds returning, real buying entering the market
BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw the strongest weekly net inflow this year, with institutional funds repositioning, providing bottom support for the market, no longer relying solely on retail speculation, and incremental funds driving prices upward.
3. Large-scale short squeeze driving the rise
The market was persistently bearish earlier, with short positions accumulating. After the price started rising, many shorts were liquidated in succession, forcing short covering and creating passive buying, further accelerating the rally. This was a key driver of this wave of increase.
4. Improved regulatory policy expectations + on-chain fundamentals support
The market is speculating on the passage of U.S. crypto legislation; ETH staking lockups continue to increase, circulating supply shrinks, supporting fundamentals.
Objective view: This round is a resonance of short squeeze + institutional return + macro expectations, but it does not fully represent a new bull market without corrections. There are still many profit-taking positions at high levels, plus two major risk events looming: $6.4 billion options expiry and Jackson Hole speech by Powell.
II. Summary of Practical Trading Experience
1. A big surge does not equal a confirmed trend. A short squeeze-driven rally can quickly correct if no continuous incremental funds follow after shorts are cleared. Do not treat short-term surges as a reason to chase prices blindly.
2. Missing out is normal; never open revenge positions because of it. Many who missed the low end up buying heavily at highs and get trapped in volatile peaks.
3. Distinguish the driving source: If the rise relies on contract short squeezes or news expectations, be cautious; only sustained spot fund inflows ensure stronger market continuity.
4. After the rally, altcoins will show catch-up rotation, like many small coins surging collectively on the gain charts. Altcoins are just a fund overflow effect; once the market corrects, altcoins will fall more sharply than BTC or ETH. Avoid heavy positions in small coins.
5. In a bull market, knowing when to protect profits is as important as making them. After substantial unrealized gains, take profits in batches; do not hold stubbornly to avoid losing all gains in a correction.
III. Follow-up Practical Operation Suggestions
1. Prioritize position management: Do not go all-in. Keep a base position, reduce leverage for short-term positions, minimize contract participation. Currently, frequent long-short whipsaws and high leverage easily lead to being liquidated repeatedly.
2. Key levels to watch
BTC: Focus on 77500-78000 support; holding this keeps the bullish structure intact. A decisive break below warns of deep correction. The 81000-82000 zone is strong resistance; volume and a stable break above are needed for a valid breakout.
ETH: Watch 2420-2450 support and 2530-2550 strong resistance.
3. Do not pre-guess direction: Wait for options expiry and Jackson Hole speech. Hawkish remarks could interrupt this rebound.
4. Entry approach: Do not chase highs. Prefer to wait for a pullback to support and stabilization before considering entry; avoid blind buying on a direct surge.
5. Cautious participation in altcoins: Small coins are only suitable for very small positions for speculation. When mainstream coins are unstable, altcoin rallies are hard to sustain.
6. Take profits in batches: For existing positions, raise stop-profit levels as the market rises to lock in gains; do not expect to sell at the absolute top.
The market is currently in a sensitive high-level consolidation phase. Most positive factors are already priced in. Risks and opportunities coexist. Controlling your hands and managing positions is more important than chasing short-term windfalls. Jack Yi's back with his usual message: stay long $BTC and $ETH , ride pullbacks, don't bother shorting. He's said this before — same playbook that made him millions on $ETH near $1,000... and cost him $763M when leverage caught up during a February drawdown he didn't see coming. The AI-crypto bull thesis through 2028 on $BTC, $ETH, $SOL might be right. Just remember: conviction without risk management is how his own worst loss happened.
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens $KO 📊KO Coca-Cola 2Q26 Earnings Full Review｜Target Price Raised to $95
Coca-Cola announced its second-quarter 2026 results, with both revenue and EPS exceeding market expectations. Q2 revenue was $13.37 billion, up 6% year-over-year, with organic revenue also up 6%; comparable EPS was $0.97, up 10.9% year-over-year. The core reason for the better-than-expected performance this quarter was significantly stronger global sales than the market consensus.
📍Regional Operating Conditions
North America Market: Strong volume and price performance. Case volume increased 3% year-over-year, organic revenue up 7%, and sales price up 4% year-over-year; operating profit margin (OPM) was 32.7%, up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year.
All core brands achieved growth: Coca-Cola, fairlife, Powerade, FRESCA, Gold Peak, smartwater, and Simply all performed well; the repositioned Mr Pibb saw sales increase over 20% year-over-year. Management mentioned that purchasing power among low-income groups remains under pressure, and the company does not rely on simple price hikes but adopts refined price management: launching multi-packs of mini cans at retail and single mini cans in convenience stores to stabilize consumer demand through package size adjustments. $ETH has launched a textbook-style surprise rally. The price quickly rose from recent lows, with a solid bullish candle piercing through the short-term consolidation upper boundary. The entire process saw no significant volume surge nor aggressive pumping, yet the bears were almost caught off guard, with positions rapidly compressed.
The core catalyst for this rally is actually not ETH itself, but the concentrated recovery of market risk appetite following Nvidia's earnings report. After hours, Nvidia staged a deep V-shaped reversal, signaling to the market that the AI narrative is far from over. Risk sentiment reignited, and spillover funds flowed first into ETFs, one of the most liquid trading vehicles.
Structurally, the ETH/$BTC ratio has been steadily rising recently, indicating this is not a passive follow-up rally but an active migration of capital from Bitcoin to Ethereum. Institutional activity also supports this view: spot ETFs have maintained net inflows for several consecutive days, with compliant buying quietly accumulating base positions, providing implicit support to the market. The early morning surge resembles a resonance formed by spot bottom support and contract short covering.
The deeper logic is that $ETH, as the core infrastructure for on-chain AI settlement layers, is being revalued by capital. Nvidia's bullish candle extends the AI sector's momentum, while ETH's value reassessment is just beginning to emerge. This morning's candle may not mark the end of the rebound but rather a prelude to a style shift—Bitcoin stabilizes the base, while Ethereum prepares to take over the pace. This transition might come sooner than most expect. $ETH Ethereum is currently fiercely contesting around $2500, but it cannot yet be said to have firmly established itself. This looks more like a battle that has just begun, with risks and opportunities coexisting.
Bullish confidence: continuous capital inflow
· Strong ETF buying: Ethereum spot ETFs have seen large net inflows for several consecutive days, with over $1 billion inflow in August alone, indicating a clear rebound in institutional demand.
· Exchange "shortage": About 101,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges last week, reducing exchange reserves by approximately 101,000 ETH, easing selling pressure.
· Technical pattern support: A "golden cross" appeared on the daily chart, and the price has risen above key moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish trend.
Bearish pressure: weak foundation for the rebound
· The rise stems from a "short squeeze": This surge was largely driven by forced liquidations of shorts (one of the largest in history), with actual active buying not as strong.
· Contract market cooling down: Open interest in futures contracts has significantly decreased, and leverage has dropped to the lowest level since early March, meaning new capital inflow has not kept pace.
· Technical indicators "overbought": Daily RSI and other indicators have entered the overbought zone, suggesting a short-term need for a pullback or sideways consolidation. $BTC The real focus might be next Tuesday
BTC has been fluctuating repeatedly around $80,000 these days, and I actually think there's no need to rush to judge the direction.
The real focus is the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on September 1.
The July ISM Manufacturing PMI surged to 55.6, showing economic resilience significantly stronger than previously expected. The data released on September 1 for August will be an important window for a new round of macroeconomic expectation repricing.
More importantly, this is just the beginning.
Following that, there will be ADP employment, ISM services, and non-farm payroll data. The entire market will reassess whether the US economy continues to maintain resilience or starts to show signs of cooling.
So with BTC now holding near $80,000, I’m not in a hurry to chase.
If the data does not clearly push hawkish expectations higher again, and BTC can continue to hold current positions, then after breaking through $80,000, the area around $84,000 is indeed worth close attention.
But if the data is clearly strong, interest rate expectations turn hawkish again, and BTC breaks key support, then beware of a high-level sideways move turning downward.
So the most important thing now is not to guess whether it will rise or fall on September 1, but to prepare two sets of plans in advance.
When the data comes out, the market will naturally provide direction.
Being patient is more important than betting early.
Crypto assets are highly volatile; please make rational judgments based on your own risk tolerance. The above content is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $SOL surged directly from 94 to 104. I heard there’s a 200x moonshot dog token on the chain, and suddenly it all makes sense — it’s not that SOL itself suddenly powered up, but the chain is heating up again.
I’m very familiar with this script. Every time a get-rich-quick myth pops up in the SOL ecosystem, capital rushes in like a swarm. Whether you buy SOL or go all-in on some meme dog token market, the priority is to buy SOL first. Because playing projects on the Solana chain without SOL in hand is like having no entry ticket. A 208x moonshot dog token is more effective than a hundred positive news items; it directly ignites gambling instincts, and SOL’s price being driven up is just a side effect.
But I have to pour cold water: a 200x moonshot dog token is a get-rich story prepared for a very small group of people; most others just rush in to provide liquidity. When the hype fades and the dog token goes to zero, whether $SOL can hold up is the real question.
Looking at the chart, SOL pulled from 94 to 104, currently at 102, with trading volume noticeably larger than before, indicating real money chasing it. But the 102-104 zone is exactly where previous trapped positions lie, so selling pressure is heavy. If on-chain hype and capital can sustain, holding above 104 could see a rise to 108-110; if the moonshot dog token cools off and funds withdraw quickly, a pullback to 98-100 for SOL is normal.
My strategy: if you hold SOL, and it rebounds to around 103-104 with shrinking volume and stagnation, I’d reduce some position first, not betting on it taking off just because of a moonshot dog token. If you’re out of position, don’t chase; wait for a pullback to 98-100 to stabilize before considering entry. The chain may be lively, but don’t get blinded by a 200x moonshot — the odds are even lower than winning the lottery. I’ll keep playing my spot and OKB; for these high-risk plays, I only put in a small amount for fun, and I won’t be upset if I lose.