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82%→14%, five new accounts dumped $2.46 million betting "No Pass" — I've seen this script before
Quick take 1: 82%→14%, a drop of 68 percentage points in half a year
In February, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year on Polymarket was still 82%. Market confidence was sky-high; everyone thought the US was finally going to give the crypto industry a clear answer.
And now? 14%.
In half a year, 68 percentage points vanished into thin air.
Galaxy Digital was even more brutal, cutting the passing probability from 30% to 10% directly on August 14.
This isn’t because the bill changed. It’s because political games have entered garbage time.
The Senate didn’t vote before its August recess. It reconvened on September 14, with a procedural vote on September 15. But the Senate went on recess again on October 2 due to midterm elections. The effective legislative window is only two to three weeks.
A 309-page bill, three unresolved controversies, and only two to three weeks — you tell me it can pass?
Quick take 2: Five new accounts, $2.46 million, all betting "No"
I’m not making this up. Data monitored by PolyBeats.
Five accounts: VelvetNova27, KatsuManager87, blahblah344, EamonnD1812, 1916JConnolly.
These five accounts occupy five of the top six spots on the "No" holders leaderboard, accounting for 68% of the total market volume.
The fund flow is exactly the same:
CEX → new wallet (0.01 ETH gas) → Relay → Polymarket
The trading profile is exactly the same:
Only trading this one market, 1-3 market buy orders, all all-in.
Total investment $2.46 million. If they bet right, profit would be $609,000.
Doesn’t this operation look like they knew something in advance?
VelvetNova27 alone dumped $818,000 buying "No" at an average price of 77.7 cents, taking 1.05 million shares of "No". KatsuManager87 added another $676,800.
Together, the five accounts — $2.46 million, all betting "No Pass."
You say these are retail investors? Do you believe that?
Quick take 3: Who’s on the opposite side? Polymarket star traders
Who’s on the other side?
ImJustKen, total profit $3.3 million. AllByMyseIf, total profit $526,000. GollumGekko, total profit $268,000.
Veteran traders betting "Yes," mysterious new accounts betting "No."
Do you trust experience or "insider info"?
ImJustKen netted $1.5 million on Trump-related markets, with 3,325 trades and a 47% win rate. This isn’t a rookie; this is a top player in prediction markets.
But he’s betting "Yes." On the other side, five newly registered accounts bet "No."
$2.46 million vs. $3.3 million in profit records.
Who’s swimming naked will soon be clear.
Quick take 4: The core sticking point — the ethics clause
What do the Democrats want? Federal officials must liquidate crypto assets.
What do the Republicans offer? Ban issuance and promotion, but no forced disposal of existing holdings.
Where’s the gap? Trump’s crypto-related income in 2025 is $1.4 billion. Among that, TRUMP meme coin about $636 million, World Liberty Financial over $500 million.
Do you think Trump would sign a bill that restricts his own earnings?
Democratic Senator Warren said bluntly: "This bill does not stop him from continuing to rake in the next $1.4 billion in crypto profits."
Seven Democratic senators directly rejected the early draft in July. Republicans hold 53 seats; the threshold is 60 votes — at least 7 Democratic votes are needed.
If the ethics clause can’t be agreed on, where will those 7 votes come from?
Quick take 5: September 15 — either a turnaround or total failure
Senate reconvenes September 14. Procedural vote at 2:15 PM on September 15.
60 votes needed to advance.
Republicans have 53 seats, 7 votes short. Those 7 Democratic votes hinge entirely on the ethics clause.
It’s either a turnaround or total failure.
But one thing is worth pondering —
The prediction market’s 14% probability means 86% believe it won’t pass.
When everyone stands on the same side, maybe it’s time to think about the other side.
Five mysterious accounts, $2.46 million, exactly the same operation path.
Do you think they’re fools, or did they see something we didn’t?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP Core PCE has exceeded 2% for over 4 years. As mentioned in a previous post, the market expects it will take 1-2 more years to return to the 2% target. There is also a possibility of recurring inflation, with $BTC and $ETH currently standing at $80,000 and $2,500 respectively. At this year's Jackson Hole symposium, I am personally paying close attention to whether there is any easing in the FIMA buyback tool by Wash. For example, it could qualitatively release some liquidity by alleviating US Treasury selling pressure from countries like Japan and reducing upward pressure on 30-year US Treasuries. Also, Wash's remarks must be neutral and unbiased, as the target market continues to believe the Fed can control inflation. Of course, there is also the possibility of a real hawkish stance, so risks must be carefully monitored.When the prediction market says "No," maybe that's exactly when you should say "Yes"
14%.
This is the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year on Polymarket.
It just dropped below 20% in mid-August, now it has crashed to 14%. Kalshi is even harsher, with less than a 25% chance of passing by the end of the year. Galaxy Research cut it from 50% all the way down to 10%.
From "a done deal" to "almost no chance" in just four months.
The market has given up. What about you?
But there's a detail that's chilling upon closer thought.
In the past month, 5 brand new accounts have been betting "No" on Polymarket at any cost.
5 accounts, all newly opened, all with 0.01 ETH gas plus whole USDC amounts, all placing 1 to 3 market buy orders.
A total investment of $2.46 million. If the prediction succeeds, a net profit of $609,000.
These 5 accounts hold five of the top six "No" positions, accounting for 68% of the market's total holdings.
The words "insider trading" are already written on the wall.
But here’s the question—
If it really is insider trading, why not run after being exposed?
The information of these five accounts has been fully uncovered online. PolyBeats detected it, the community spread it, even the opponents were doxxed—ImJustKen with a total profit of 3.3 million, AllByMyseIf with 526,000, GollumGekko with 268,000.
Everyone knows "someone knows the answer."
So how much value does this "answer" still have?
Are there not many cases where insider trading accusations in prediction markets were exaggerated after the fact? Polymarket’s previous insider trading investigations have yet to reach any conclusion.
When everyone knows someone is cheating, the cheating itself is already priced in.
Will history repeat itself?
Remember the GENIUS Act?
The first motion to end debate failed, the market was pessimistic, and the probability hit rock bottom. What happened? It passed a few weeks later.
The setback in September may not be the end.
The Senate reconvenes on September 14. Last week, Trump publicly pressured at the White House crypto meeting, calling the CLARITY Act "a strong bipartisan consensus" and hoping for it to be signed into law in September. Over 200 crypto companies jointly urged the Senate to vote.
The procedural vote on September 15 requires 60 votes.
The window is still open.
Here’s something painful.
What are retail investors doing? Seeing a 14% probability, they cut losses and leave, cursing "the policy is dead."
What are the smart people doing? Watching those 5 accounts, watching September 15, watching Trump’s Twitter.
Prediction markets have never been crystal balls.
They are amplifiers of sentiment. Thermometers of fear and greed.
When the probability drops from 82% to 14%, the biggest expectation gap is hidden in the most pessimistic place.
When everyone knows "someone knows the answer,"
that "answer" itself is already worthless.
14% is either a death sentence,
or the biggest expectation gap in history.
September 15, the truth will be revealed.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Bitcoin has officially stabilized above the $80,000 mark, confirmed by the daily candlestick close, ending weeks of low-volume consolidation. The difference this time is that the breakout was accompanied by a clear increase in trading volume, and Coinbase's premium has turned positive again, indicating that traditional US funds are buying with real money, not just futures-driven price pulls. On the macro side, the market has repriced expectations for interest rate cuts within the year, combined with continuous net inflows into ETFs over several days, and short sellers being forced to cover has further accelerated this rally.
However, holding above $80,000 does not mean smooth sailing. The $83,500–$85,000 range is a dense trading zone formed in March 2025, with a large amount of trapped positions waiting to be released, so a short-term push into this area will inevitably trigger intense selling. On-chain data shows that the average cost for short-term holders has risen to around $76,000, meaning that if the price pulls back, stop-loss selling from these new positions could increase volatility. Although the funding rate for perpetual contracts has turned positive, it remains at a moderate level, far from the greed extremes seen at last year's peak, indicating that market sentiment is still cautious and incremental leverage has not fully entered.
The new core support range is $77,500–$78,500, converted from the previous high before the breakout and also the lower edge of the current peak in concentrated holdings. As long as the price does not break below this area on a pullback, the strong daily structure remains intact, and there is momentum for further upward movement; conversely, if there is a high-volume breakdown and sustained pressure, a false breakout and a return to wide-range consolidation are possible. The most interesting thing about gold is that even if my base metals are stuck at the gold price of 5200, I still feel at ease.
Spot gold $XAU has currently returned to around $4600/oz. It once surged past $5500 in January this year, then experienced a significant pullback, but it still remains well above the price range of the past few years. The latest Reuters survey expects the average gold price in 2026 to be about $4509, and the buying behind it is no longer just retail investors seeking safety.
Looking at gold $XAUT now, the three most important words are: dollar, real interest rate, and central bank. The US fiscal pressure and long-term Treasury issues have led the market to reprice "dollar depreciation"; meanwhile, ETFs and global central banks are still buying gold. Recently, the US Treasury increased repurchases of old long-term bonds, weakening the dollar, and gold immediately gained support again.
But chasing gold now is not without risks. The US July PCE year-on-year is still 3.7%, and some Fed officials are even discussing rate hikes. If interest rates remain high, gold will definitely face short-term pressure.
So my current judgment on $XAU gold is simple: short-term watch the Fed, long-term watch dollar credit. As long as central bank buying continues and US fiscal pressure is not truly resolved, I won’t easily say the gold super cycle is over. For truly comfortable opportunities, I’d rather wait for the market to hammer gold down due to hawkish expectations before taking a look.
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 Walsh's debut tonight will decide life or death: BTC hanging by a thread before the 80k mark: Hawkish tone sounds, bulls exit?
At 10 PM tonight, Fed Chair Walsh makes his Jackson Hole debut, and the market holds its breath. The backdrop is high inflation, bond market turmoil, and damaged Fed credibility, with Walsh urgently needing to repair guidance.
Currently, US stocks, BTC (breaking through $80,000), ETH, and SOL are surging, driven mainly by the "AI boom + ETF inflows + risk appetite recovery" logic, rather than expectations of Walsh turning dovish.
What key points need attention?
1) How Walsh characterizes the recent surge in long-term bond yields—whether as "desired tightening" or "risk premium" will set the tone;
2) Whether he clarifies the inflation response mechanism and the optionality of rate hikes;
3) If he remains ambiguous again, market "punishment" will intensify.
Signal judgment: The market is unprepared for hawkishness, with only 7% expecting dovishness. Walsh is likely neutral to hawkish, emphasizing unchanged inflation targets but may disappoint the market by withholding guidance.
How should BTC, ETH, and SOL be traded?
BTC: Currently facing strong resistance in the 80k-80.4k range with an 8% supply concentration. If the speech is hawkish or ambiguous, short at 80.5k-81.5k, target 78.5k, stop loss 82.5k; if unexpectedly dovish, break above 82k to go long, target 85k, stop loss 80k.
SOL/ETH: SOL is catching up but faces heavy resistance at $110. Short SOL at 109-110, target 102, stop loss 113; ETH moves in tandem, resistance around 2750.
US tech stocks: The AI narrative is hard to disprove in the short term, but Walsh's hawkish stance will suppress valuations. Hold positions and wait, no adding.
All gains tonight await one word from Walsh—hawk, pullback; dove, celebration. Probabilistically, betting on a rise followed by a fall offers better cost-effectiveness. $BTC $ETH $SOL Recently, something quite rare happened on-chain. Six Bitcoin wallets that had been dormant for over ten years gradually awakened between August 16 and 26, transferring out a total of 553.59 BTC. At the price at the time, that was about $40.15 million. Fifteen years of silence. All six wallets are quite "old." The earliest wallet hasn't moved since June 2011, lying dormant for a full 15.1 years. What was the price of Bitcoin in 2011? About $14 per coin. This batch of coins rose from $14 to $538,000 at the time of transfer, with a return rate of over 460,000 times. Another wallet dormant in August 2012 transferred 212 BTC in one go, worth about $13.66 million. Another wallet from December 2014 transferred 150 BTC. The latest transaction was 40 BTC, which flowed into a compliant German custodian, Boerse Stuttgart Digital. These addresses share one thing in common: from creation to this transfer, there have been no on-chain transactions for over a decade. They have traversed Bitcoin's entire cycle from a few hundred dollars to over a hundred thousand dollars, not selling at the peak, and not moving during the crash. Then, in August 2026, all six almost simultaneously woke up. Two driving forces. Such a collective awakening of "ancient wallets" is rare in Bitcoin history. On-chain analysts generally believe there are two main driving forces behind this concentrated movement. The first is a security vulnerability in the Coldcard hardware wallet 20AI demand has expanded from hardware to software, and the market is finally starting to ask, "What do you do after buying the card?"
NVIDIA's earnings report continues to prove that computing power demand is solid, but more interestingly, software stocks have also been ignited. Enterprises buy GPUs not just to display in their server rooms; ultimately, it must be applied to specific scenarios like customer service, coding, data analysis, security, and office workflows.
I think this signals that AI trading has entered its second layer. The first layer is about grabbing hardware—whoever has the chips rises; the second layer is about who can turn computing power into business processes, who can show the boss the saved labor, increased revenue, and reduced costs.
Hardware is the ticket, software is the path to recouping investment. Going forward, the market will not only reward "participation in AI" but will increasingly ask: how much money have you actually helped your customers earn?
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 What Jackson Hole fears most tonight is not hawkishness, but empty talk
Core PCE is still stuck above the Fed's target, and the market is no longer short of the phrase "we depend on data." What everyone really wants to hear is: what kind of inflation will make the Fed continue tightening, what kind of employment deterioration will make it take a step back, and whether fiscal and long-term debt pressures count as policy variables
If Waller only talks about principles and not reaction functions, the bond market will price it for him. When the bond market is chaotic, tech stocks, BTC, and gold will all be pulled by the same thread
I think this speech is not about giving the market a treat, but about reestablishing a sense of rules. The most expensive thing now is not high interest rates, but that no one knows what the next move will be
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Global semiconductor market hits $368B in Q2 with positive YoY growth, while $SNDK Sandisk hovers near $1,479. Is market mis‑pricing or fundamentals weakening?
Bearish factors:
1. Deep‑rooted cyclical stigma for memory chips, investors hesitate to assign growth‑stock multiples.
2. Massive prior rally already priced in AI‑supercycle optimism, profit‑taking post strong earnings.
3. Cloud giants’ huge long‑term supply contracts raise concerns over pricing power constraints. The Strait of Hormuz is really starting to loosen up
Oil prices have already traded in advance
Iran and Oman have recently been discussing a temporary navigation plan, including establishing a channel and clearing mines, with long-term arrangements to be discussed later. The Strait of Hormuz used to handle about 20% of global oil transportation, so this news is very direct for crude oil.
The market has already moved first.
WTI once dropped to around $80, falling nearly 7% in the past 5 days, while Brent fell nearly 9% in the same period.
But I think we can't directly consider the Iran issue resolved yet.
The reopening of the strait is indeed bearish for oil prices, but the core conflict between the US and Iran has not been resolved at all.
So crude oil here may still experience very large fluctuations.
$CL $BTC $XAU
#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 Brothers, I just took a quick look at the whale order data. Four addresses have placed $250 million worth of orders on BTC, ETH, HYPE, and ZEC. After seeing this, my back went cold.
BTC whale: Currently opened 46.8 long positions at 77,833, 40x full margin. There are 1,176 buy orders hanging below between 72,222-77,522, and 928 sell orders hangi. The clear bet is that BTC will oscillate in the $3,000 range between 77,500-81,500.#WalshPolicyFramework be #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest From 82% to 14% — Where exactly is the CLARITY Act’s "Triple Gate" stuck?
Brothers, first look at some data.
On February 19, the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 on Polymarket was 82%.
On August 26, the same market showed 14%.
In half a year, it went from "a done deal" to "basically no chance." Galaxy Digital was even harsher, cutting the probability of passage within the year to 10%.
The industry spent over $100 million lobbying, the House passed it in July 2025 with 294 votes to 134, and the Senate Banking Committee approved it on May 15 with a 15-9 vote.
And then? It got stuck.
It’s not that the bill is bad, but no one can satisfy everyone.
Today, no talk about candlesticks, but three things — the White House, the Senate, and regulatory agencies. Each gate is locking the CLARITY Act.
First gate: The White House is pushing, but can’t move it forward
On August 19, Trump convened CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, and Robinhood at the White House, with the SEC and CFTC chairs also present.
Trump pressured in person: the Senate must pass the CLARITY Act, saying this thing "will let us lead China."
He even hinted at the meeting that the government might accumulate more Bitcoin.
Sounds fierce, right?
The problem is — Trump himself is the biggest obstacle.
On June 30, the U.S. Office of Government Ethics released a 927-page financial disclosure report. It showed Trump profited over $1.2 billion in 2025 from crypto-related businesses.
Among them, World Liberty Financial token sales earned nearly $590 million, and personal meme coin $TRUMP project licensing fees exceeded $600 million.
A person who made $1.2 billion from crypto is pushing a law to regulate crypto.
If not the Democrats, then who?
Second gate: The Senate is stuck, stuck tight
The bill is 616 pages and requires 60 votes to invoke cloture.
Republicans have only 53 seats. Even if all Republicans vote yes — which is unlikely, as at least two Republican senators might defect — at least 8 Democrats need to flip.
Only 2 Democrats supported it in committee votes. 8? Dream on.
The core disagreement is one: the ethics clause.
Democrats demand: federal officials holding over $1 million in crypto assets or more than 10% equity in projects must fully divest. For presidents with large crypto holdings, strict conflict-of-interest mechanisms must be set.
Republican version: ethics clause is relaxed.
Seven Democratic senators issued a joint statement in July: the current text "falls short of expectations."
Democrats outright refused to cooperate with a quick vote before recess. The Senate recess in August delayed the vote officially to September.
Procedural vote on September 15. After reconvening, only 14 working days remain before midterm election campaigns fully kick off, and legislative priority plummets.
Time is not on the industry’s side.
Third gate: Regulatory agencies are waiting — no, they’re not waiting anymore
What if the CLARITY Act dies?
CFTC Chair Mike Selig has already laid it out: "If CLARITY continues to stall due to Democratic obstruction, the CFTC will use existing authority to start building a regulatory framework for crypto asset markets."
He has ordered staff to explore creating a "crypto asset market" regulatory label for crypto assets.
The SEC hasn’t been idle either.
In August, the SEC proposed its first major crypto asset rule — "Regulation Crypto Assets," allowing crypto startups to raise funds with fewer regulatory hurdles.
In March, the SEC and CFTC jointly released a 68-page interpretive guide dividing digital assets into five categories.
Regulators are saying: if your Congress can’t handle it, we will.
But "we will" is scarier than legislation.
What is SEC’s "enforcement regulation"?
It means no clear rules, no registration path, no exemptions — only after-the-fact accountability.
Do you think your token is a security or a commodity?
You don’t know.
Do you think your exchange should be regulated by whom?
You don’t know.
Do you think your DeFi protocol is legal?
You’ll only know when you get sued.
This is the truth of "enforcement regulation." No rules, only a knife. When it falls depends on the regulator’s mood.
The slickest move comes from prediction markets.
In the past month, five newly created Polymarket accounts, with no trading history, concentrated bets on "CLARITY Act will not pass."
These five accounts invested a total of $2.46 million, with a potential combined profit of $609,000 if the prediction succeeds.
The fund flow is identical: centralized exchange → new wallet (0.01 ETH gas + large integer USDC) → Relay deposit into Polymarket.
The buying pattern is identical: 1 to 3 market buy orders.
These five accounts hold 5 of the top 6 spots on the "No" holders leaderboard, with a total share of 68% of the market.
Someone spent $2.46 million to tell you: this bill won’t pass.
On the other side, Polymarket star traders ImJustKen (total profit $3.3 million) and AllByMyseIf (total profit $526,000) are betting "it will pass."
One side is wealthy newcomers, the other is profitable veterans.
Who do you trust?
Here’s something harsh.
The CLARITY Act is like the Sword of Damocles hanging over the industry’s head.
The White House wants it to fall — but the White House owner himself is the biggest stakeholder.
The Senate is holding the rope — Democrats want the ethics clause, Republicans won’t give it, and no one backs down.
Regulators have already prepared their own sword — if this sword doesn’t fall, they will stab themselves.
And the industry spent over $100 million lobbying, waited a whole year, only to get a 14% probability and $2.46 million short from five mysterious accounts.
This is not legislation, it’s a game between Trisolarans. The industry is just the Earth caught in the middle.
September 15. 14 working days.
$BTC $ETH $SOL September has long been one of the weakest months for the US stock market, with the S&P 500 averaging a return of about -0.8% over the past 50 years. Bitcoin recorded negative returns in September for six consecutive years from 2017 to 2022, but it posted gains in September for three consecutive years in 2023, 2024, and 2025, indicating that this seasonal pattern is weakening. In 2026, combined with the uncertainty of the US midterm elections, volatility may increase and prompt investors to reduce risk exposure. Analysts point out that the core issue is whether the seasonal adjustment will evolve into broad risk aversion, with attention needed on ETF fund flows and spot BTC demand. If risk-off sentiment spreads across the entire market, Bitcoin will come under pressure; conversely, if ETF and spot demand remain strong, the traditional September pattern may be broken again #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 🔥 THIS IS THE MOST INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE BITCOIN RALLY
Investors are now returning to what is called the “debasement trade”:
Buying scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin when concerns about the dollar, US debt, and inflation rise.
Even gold + Bitcoin ETF flows reached about $7 billion in five trading days.
Is Bitcoin turning into a hedge against US fiscal issues?
$BTCGold has risen to around 4700
Yet large funds continue to buy
Gold has already reached near its historical highs, but funds have not significantly withdrawn.
In the past week, gold ETFs reportedly attracted about $6.4 billion, one of the largest weekly inflows in nearly 10 months; and data from the World Gold Council also shows that global gold ETFs had a net inflow of $3 billion in July.
I think this phenomenon is very important.
Because after gold reached this level, the buying is not just about trading price increases, but more like reallocating safe-haven assets.
Our previous target of 4700 has been reached, and I will not blindly chase here.
But if ETF funds continue to flow in like this, the prospect of gold firmly holding 4700 and reaching $5000 is something to seriously consider.
$XAU $BTC $XAUT
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 NVIDIA's stock surged 8.74% the day after its earnings report, with market value increasing by over $440 billion in a single day. Several figures explain why investors are willing to chase again: quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year; data center revenue of $89 billion, soaring 117% year-over-year; next quarter's revenue guidance directly set at $108 billion. More importantly, management expects revenue to still grow about 70% in the next fiscal year. For the past few months, the market has been worried about one thing: with companies like Microsoft, Meta, and OpenAI spending so much on building data centers, is AI capital expenditure nearing its peak? This earnings report temporarily answers no. Rubin has entered mass production, cloud providers, AI labs, sovereign AI, and enterprise customers continue to compete for computing power, and demand for AI infrastructure shows no obvious cooling. But risks are emerging: supply of key components like HBM remains tight, the Chinese market is not included in Q3 data center revenue expectations, and gross margin faces downward pressure going forward. For Crypto, the direct benefit is not that "all AI coins should rise." What is truly reinforced is the big narrative of AI computing power, Agents, machine payments, and automation. Short-term AI Tokens may continue to ride sentiment, but whether they ultimately retain value depends on real users, revenue, and on-chain demand. What this earnings report proves now is only one thing: the global money poured into AI infrastructure has not stopped yet. $NVDA $xNVDA Update: They have currently converted 36 million USDC into 441,000 HYPE over two days and staked them, with an average price of $81.6.
And the purchases are still ongoing: just now, another 12 million USDC was transferred in for HYPE purchases.
They currently have staked 4.826 million HYPE ($404 million), with an average price of about $66.1. The unrealized profit is $84.9 million.The market's pessimistic expectations for Xiaomi's self-developed chips are mismatched with its actual top-tier foundry, deep ARM customization, and full ecosystem integration capabilities. The current core contradiction lies in the position allocation under the balance of high R&D trial-and-error costs and undervaluation correction.
Market facts show a tendency to benchmark against leading giants and apply a premium discount, but the conditions of the industrial chain are not constrained. Compared to peers who only make auxiliary chips, the company can directly obtain the latest ARM licenses and top foundry processes to realize the implementation of flagship main SoCs.
The driving factors are ranked as the certainty of advanced foundry nodes, the chip digestion capacity of the full ecosystem terminals including vehicles, homes, and others, and the marginal risk of the financial base bearing long-term cash burn. When risk appetite is suppressed, low-leverage large-position funds often choose to wait for expectation repair in the low valuation range.
The trigger condition for the upside scenario is the successful adoption and scaling of the main SoC across multiple terminals such as phones, cars, and IoT. The observation variables are the throughput progress of ecosystem terminals and the robustness of cash flow; the invalidation signal is the obstruction of foundry node advancement.
The trigger condition for the downside scenario is the prolonged R&D cycle leading to the emergence of sunk cost pressure. The observation variable is the abnormal surge in R&D investment as a proportion of revenue; the invalidation signal is the achievement of large-scale cross-terminal mass production application of self-developed chips.
Inflation and interest rate environments will transmit through capital costs to risk appetite. If the market's tolerance for long-cycle cash-burning projects declines, the rebalancing operations of low-leverage funds will directly change the chip structure.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing the market's valuation repair strength for chip technology nodes and the turnover liquidity of low-leverage large positions in the current price range.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款Today's Market
Didn't expect that after the Asia session was flat for half the day, it could still rally like this... And this happened while Binance spot CVD kept declining, indicating selling pressure...
Moreover, this rally hit several previous highs without significant volume increase... It doesn't seem exhausted yet...
In the end, it was still held down below 81k by a very unusual large sell order on Coinbase spot.
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Let's first look at today's order book (Chart 1)
Now that the price has returned to around 80k, it has reached the resistance zone of sell orders above.
Spot sell orders are concentrated above 81k. There's a large cluster at 82k.
The futures market is similar; during the day, the Asia session broke through many sell orders (also taking advantage of short liquidity).
Currently, the largest cluster on futures is near 82k.
What’s most abnormal today is Coinbase. There is a sell order of over 900+ BTC around 80800...
This size is very rare on Coinbase (liquidity there usually counts a few dozen BTC as a large order).
So the price couldn't break through around 80500 today...
Today, following this huge order, there was a scalp short trade.
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Ribbon Model (Chart 2)
Since there are so many spot sell orders above, it’s understandable that the ribbon appeared again near 80k just now.
So today you can continue to watch and trade the Coinbase sell order at 80800.
As long as the price is near this level and the order remains, you can scalp short with the stop loss set at the order being filled.
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I've been saying these past two days that bulls need to hold above 80k to continue upward...
Today it challenged again but failed to hold, pushed down by this huge Coinbase order...
The US session today will likely be a battle for 80k...
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Capital Flow (Chart 3)
Coinbase premium is very positive today... Since Americans woke up, it has mostly stayed above zero, never dropping below.
So ETF inflows should continue today... Just need to see if ETF net inflows can rise enough to eat through this 900+ BTC order on Coinbase...
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Structure is also clearer today (Chart 4)
The two lower POCs from today and yesterday, in the 78.3k~78.8k range, haven't been touched yet. If there is a pullback today, it’s a good low-long opportunity.
The high short remains as mentioned before, just below the huge Coinbase order at 80800.Today's market theme is a rollercoaster of great joy and sorrow, with a masterful spike followed by a sharp drop, repeatedly testing the mentality of contract traders.
BTC Bitcoin: Soared all the way up to 81,400, and before the cheers died down, profit-taking kicked in en masse, instantly crashing to 80,150. One moment it's a bull market cr palms sweat; the long upper shadow candlestick clearly spells out "Don't chase the highs."
#WalshPolicyFramework #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #AIShiftsToSoftware 比特币 17 年，从 2 个披萨涨到 12.6 万美元，涨幅超过一万倍。但问过很多参与过币圈买卖和投资的人，赚到钱的不多，赚到大钱的寥寥无几。为什么涨了这么多，钱却没落到普通人手里，原因有 4 个，全部写在数据里。 第一，波动太大，上涨拿不住，下跌扛不住。5 轮牛熊，平均每轮熊市跌 7 成以上。2020 年 3 月黑色星期四，单日跌约 40%。持有金额占家庭资产的比例越高，越扛不住。 有个朋友，2021 年那轮牛市持有 35 个比特币，跟我聊了几个小时，说比特币远期要到一百万人民币一个。2022 年暴跌，他一个都没剩，全部卖在了底部附近。不管信仰多深，面对 70% 到 80% 的回撤，人都会做出同一个选择。 第二，不满足于比特币的涨幅，去追空气币。币圈里有个说法，只买比特币的人，被当低风险爱好者看待。因为比特币是加密世界的锚，其他币理论上都有中心，随时可以跑路。 但一夜涨 10 倍的例子太多了。这些故事把人引向波动更大、预期更高、风险也更高的币，最后归零。比特币上赚的钱，又亏在别的币上，等于白干。 第三，加杠杆，玩合约。币圈的杠杆可以加到 50 倍、100 倍。方向对了赚得快，方向错了In the past 24 hours, the market has given clearer signals than yesterday: SOL is no longer just leading in price, but is now coordinating with ETFs, on-chain activity, and institutional buying. BTC has climbed back above $80,000, but ETH is clearly lagging behind; The real direction attracting incremental funds is concentrated in SOL. This means market risk appetite is rebounding, but for now, it's still selective rotation rather than a broad rally. 1. In a nutshell: BTC has returned to $80,000, SOL has broken through $107 amid ETF, on-chain, and institutional buying, marking the market entering a selective risk appetite expansion centered on SOL. 2. 📈 Today's Market As of August 28, 10:04 HKT: BTC: $80,402 | 24h +1.81%
ETH：$2,510.04｜24h +0.30%
SOL: $107.82 | 24h +5.97% The Fear and Greed Index rose to 73, remaining in the "greed" range. The most important thing today is not BTC breaking above $80,000 again, but the SOL breakout that still needed confirmation yesterday, which has made significant progress. Yesterday, SOL was at $101.59, and my focus is on whether it can truly hold above $102–$105. Today, SOL directly reached $107.82, meaning the $100 breakout has moved from the "testing phase" to further confirmation. And the biggest difference between this time and yesterday is: yesterday the price rose and on-chain volume declined; Today it became: price On August 28, BTC options worth approximately $6.44 billion across the network will expire simultaneously. Due to a large concentration of pain points and open interest between $75,000 and $80,000, options market makers dynamically hedging Gamma often exert a strong "gravitational pull" or cause intense disturbances on the spot price, amplifying the volatility of the battle near this key level.
BTC $80,000 Tug-of-War: Key Data and Trading Logic
Market Positioning: A rise followed by a pullback, transitioning from a "derivatives squeeze" phase to a "spot chip digestion" phase.
Data Breakdown:
K33 Squeeze Indicator: Historically significant short liquidations and a sharp drop in open interest indicate that the early rebound was driven by short squeezes, but there is a lack of new long buyers chasing higher prices afterward.
ETF Net Inflows: $1.92 billion in a single week, showing institutional spot activity, but unable to withstand concentrated profit-taking selling at high levels.
Options Expiry Pressure: On August 28, $6.44 billion in options expire, heavily concentrated between $75,000 and $80,000. Market makers’ hedging will cause frequent price spikes around this level in the coming days.
Trading Strategy:
Before the options expiry on August 28, avoid chasing highs near the $80,000 level. Focus on observing the strength of support in the $75,000–$78,000 range and whether daily ETF inflows continue uninterrupted. Only if the spot price holds steady can a second upward move be expected; otherwise, beware of a pullback and shakeout. $BTC Putting together the data from five rounds, you can see several hard patterns. First, the 4-year halving cycle is anchored. Bitcoin's total supply capped at 21 million coins, with mining rewards halved every 4 years. In 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024, the rewards are reduced once each. Bull market peaks usually occur 12 to 18 months after the halving. The halving in April 2024 peaks in October 2025, with almost no change in pace. Second, each bull market hits new highs, but the gains are decreasing. $31, $1,242, $19,800, $68,900, $126,000. From 500-fold, 600-fold, 130-fold, 22-fold, to this round about 8-fold. The bigger the market, the less elastic. Third, each bear market has dropped more than 70%, but the decline is narrowing. 93%, 87%, 84%, 77%, with the maximum drawdown in this round being 54%. Each bottom is higher than the last: $2, $152, $3,100, $15,500, $57,700. Fourth, catalysts are escalating. The first round relies on geeks and the dark web; the second round relies on sovereign crises and retail investors; the third round relies on ICOs and futures; the fourth round relies on institutions and listed companies; the fifth round relies on ETFs and national reserves. The main buyers have shifted from individuals to institutions and sovereign states. Fifth, every bear market narrative is the same. Exchanges fleeing, regulatory blockades, miners shutting down, Bitcoin is dead🪫$TRUMP Should you continue holding TRUMP or liquidate? The current risks far outweigh the potential rewards.
The core risk lies in the tokenomics: of the total supply of 1 billion tokens, 80% are controlled by entities associated with Trump, released continuously through a three-year unlocking schedule, with about 900,000 tokens (nearly $2 million) entering the market daily. The team frequently transfers tokens to exchanges; on August 26, nearly $10 million was moved, and on September🥏$ENA knows marketing well; it changed its tokenomics at the market's hottest and most attention-grabbing moment, causing a direct surge of 30%.
1. ENA's core product is USDe, a synthetic yield stablecoin. Its yield source is BTC/ETH perpetual contract basis arbitrage, so it's called the "bull market vanguard" within the community.
When the bull market arrives, capital floods into crypto, perpetual contract premiums and funding rates rise → USDe yield increases → ENA protocol TVL and revenue rise rapidly → ENA token price surges.
2. Riding the market recovery tailwind, the Ethena Foundation optimized the tokenomics: repurchasing locked tokens held by early investors, promoting further alignment of token and equity value, initiating governance proposals for revenue buyback of ENA, and canceling future monthly VC investor unlocks.
All positive news, so ENA responded with a 30% surge.
3. But don’t get carried away; now is not the time to enter. Because $BTC is unlikely to break through the heavy chip lock zones at 86,000 or even 83,000, the bull market won’t come that soon.
ENA rises fast in bull markets but falls just as fast in bear markets: basis shrinks, USDe attractiveness declines, capital flows out, and ENA plunges sharply.
Don’t just focus on profits; protecting your principal is more important. Missing one opportunity is just a lost chance, but one mistake requires many opportunities to make up for. Friends holding positions can start taking profits gradually.$TRX has crossed a major milestone: 400 million accounts 🎯 The network reached this level on August 23, 2026, roughly 8 years after launching in 2018. For context: 🔹 Bitcoin needed ~9.4 years 🔹 Ethereum needed 10+ years 🔹 TRON reached 400M in ~8.2 years But the headline number isn't the most interesting part. 🧩 USDT Is the Real Growth Engine TRON has become one of the biggest rails for USDT transfers. With more than 94B USDT on the network and low transaction costs, TRON has positioned itsNvidia isn’t just getting stronger — the entire AI supply chain is starting to feel the heat. 🔥🤖
Nvidia’s rally is pulling memory and optical-module stocks higher, but this doesn’t look like random market hype. There’s real order flow backing the move.
On the latest earnings call, Nvidia revealed a massive jump in multi-year supply commitments — from $119B last quarter to $279B, a staggering 134% increase in just one quarter.
That kind of commitment signals something bigger.
#DailyOrbit #Moonwell遭价格操纵，抵押风险暴露
The leader has something to say
Moonwell has encountered an incident. The lending protocol on Base was price manipulated on August 27, resulting in a loss of approximately $8.7 million.
The attack method was not complicated. The MAMO token has very shallow market depth; the attacker pushed the price up with a sum of money, then used these overvalued MAMO tokens as collateral to borrow highly liquid assets such as cbBTC, USDC, wstETH, and ETH. After borrowing, they left, leaving a pile of worthless collateral for the protocol to handle.
Moonwell responded fairly quickly by directly lowering the borrowing limit on Base's core market to 1 wei, restricting new supply of MAMO and WELL, effectively shutting down the related lending functions.
This issue is not due to a contract code vulnerability, but rather problems simultaneously occurring in three areas: collateral liquidity, oracle pricing, and risk parameters.
MAMO itself has very poor liquidity. Allowing such a token to be used as primary collateral to borrow mainstream assets is inherently a risk parameter setting problem. Oracle prices are also easily manipulated because of insufficient trading depth; a few trades can push the price up. Once the price is distorted, the actual value of the collateral does not match the book value at all, rendering the liquidation mechanism ineffective.
This serves as a reminder for the DeFi sector. In the past, everyone focused on contract security and audit reports one after another, but economic security is equally critical. Whether a token can be used as collateral depends not on whether it is listed, but on its liquidity and resistance to manipulation.
We can still discuss BitMine increasing its ETH holdings, but that’s for another day. Institutional actions at this level have linear impacts and are not urgent right now. $BTC $ETH $SOL
On the market, Bitcoin is oscillating around 81,000, with long positions from 78,500 to 80,000 already closed. Today is Friday and Wash is speaking; no heavy positions before the direction is clear.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.$SPCX consolidates after returning to 140: Understanding the unlocking reshuffle logic and the 135-150 offense and defense standoff.
$SPCX rebounded from 104 to 140, with the core logic being that supply-side events were forcibly absorbed by the market. As the leader in tokenized US stocks, the initial 20% stock unlock on August 26 did not trigger the expected panic selling; instead, it was absorbed by the market and transformed into a strong signal. This means the 1:1 token-to-real-stock pegging mechanism has been validated, providing support for its long-term narrative.
$SPCX 🧱 Core logic of consolidation: the battle between mechanical support and real demand
The current trend tends to seek equilibrium around 140.
1. Institutional bottom support: Looking at the chart, although 319 million shares were unlocked, the price repeatedly found buyer support without sustained selling pressure, likely indicating institutional funds are continuously absorbing these shares.
2. Macro positive resonance: SpaceX itself has a valuation benefit of 1.75 trillion, combined with the active tokenization market on the SOL chain, providing the coin price with stronger resilience than ordinary spot assets.
3. Concerns over artificial support: The current rebound shows some "mechanical" characteristics; whether real buying demand follows depends on holding above 150, otherwise gains are likely to be reversed. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The harshest truth of this bull market: there is no altcoin season, only a liquidity meat grinder Lately, the crypto community has been unusually quiet. BTC is grinding back and forth within a range, ETH is barely alive, the meme leaders have changed three times, and everyone says "waiting for the wind to come," but if you look at contract open interest and exchange depth—the wind hasn't come, and half the people have already left. A few days ago, I was drinking with a market maker friend, and h#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
The core PCE has been above 2% for more than four years. As mentioned in previous posts, the market expects it to fall back to the target 2%, which may take 1-2 years or even longer. Additionally, inflation may fluctuate.
Currently, $BTC and $ETH have respectively surpassed $80,000 and $2,500. Regarding this year's Jackson Hole symposium, I am personally more focused on whether Warsh will ease the FIMA repurchase tool, for example, to alleviate the pressure from countries like Japan selling U.S. Treasuries, thereby reducing the upward pressure on 30-year U.S. bonds.
From a certain perspective, this also qualitatively releases some liquidity. Furthermore, Warsh's speech is expected to be neutral or somewhat hawkish, aiming to keep the market confident that the Federal Reserve can control inflation well. Of course, there is also the possibility of a dovish hawk.
Be cautious of risks!
@OKX星球 @米妮Minnie_OKX While Nvidia itself is strengthening, upstream sectors such as memory and optical modules are collectively rising, which is not a coincidental emotional follow-up but supported by solid order logic behind the scenes.
The earnings call revealed core hub data: Nvidia's multi-year supply commitments surged from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion, a single-quarter increase of 134%, with the ment used to lock in long-term memory#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest NVIDIA's earnings far exceeded expectations, causing a frenzy in the computing power sector, while the AI storage track collectively plunged.
$SNDK SanDisk had a huge prior increase, accumulating massive profit-taking positions; with positive news landing, funds cashed out and fled directly.
With Japan's 31 billion expansion news released, the market began to worry about subsequent oversupply, coupled with NVIDIA's warning of rising memory costs, funds switched between highs and lows, withdrawing from storage and returning to the computing power mainline.
Currently, it is repeatedly consolidating around 1460, with strong resistance between 1480-1490, where a large amount of selling pressure to break even has accumulated; if it can't break through, it will continue to digest the selling pressure. The first support below is 1440, and if broken, there is room to fall further.
Many are still fantasizing about a direct surge to 2000, but high-level chips have not been sufficiently cleaned out, chasing in easily leads to an A-shaped kill. When trading contracts, always respect leverage; a single spike can directly take out positions.
Do you think this wave of SNDK is a pullback or the end of the rally? $CORE CORE token total supply locked at 2.1 billion, exactly 100 times the total supply of BTC, what does this mean behind it?
Latest official document information: @Coredao_Org has set the total supply cap of the coredaoorg:native native token at 2.1 billion CORE, exactly 100 times the total supply of 21 million BTC. This deliberately aligned number is not a casual coincidence; it is a clear positioning made by the project in its narrative, but we need to distinguish symbolic meaning from actual value.
1. First, clarify the meaning of this number
- BTC: total supply fixed at 21 million
- CORE native token cap: 2.1 billion, exactly 100 times
The project's intention is straightforward:
Using Bitcoin as an anchor, build a parallel public chain for the Bitcoin ecosystem. BTC is responsible for Bitcoin's gold-standard attribute, while CORE serves as the governance, gas, and staking token of the BTC-Fi public chain, using a total supply 100 times larger to accommodate larger-scale on-chain applications and more user participation.
2.1 billion is the total supply cap, not equal to the current circulating supply. The release schedule and unlocking timetable still depend on the official token release curve; circulating supply and total supply are two completely different concepts, do not confuse them.
2. Advantages of this design
1. Very strong narrative recognition. Directly targeting BTC's 21 million makes it easy for the market to remember that this chain's foundation is the Bitcoin ecosystem, not just an ordinary general-purpose public chain.
2. Hard cap on total supply with no room for inflation, which avoids the risk of unlimited inflation diluting holders' equity in the long term, providing a foundational premise for deflationary logic.
3. Limitations that must be clearly seen
A nice number does not automatically mean the value is 100 times greater.
BTC's scarcity value comes from over a decade of consensus, global institutional recognition, and trillion-level liquidity. 2.1 billion is just a token parameter; value ultimately depends on two things:
1. Real on-chain economic activity: lstBTC staking scale, DeFi locked value, SatPay payments, real fees generated by ecosystem DApps;
2. Token consumption mechanisms: whether there is continuous burning, staking lock-up, etc., to reduce market circulation.
If only the 2.1 billion total supply is set but there is not enough real demand on-chain to support it, then no matter how attractive the number is, it is just a paper parameter.
Many new chains design a total supply number with a strong story, but whether they can succeed depends on actual implementation progress.
Summary
2.1 billion tokens, 100 times BTC, is a clear design declaration of the project: committed to deeply cultivating the Bitcoin ecosystem. But it is only a starting point, not a guaranteed positive outcome. Follow-up requires continuous attention to token release schedules and real on-chain usage demand, rather than simply extrapolating the coin price based on the "100 times BTC" point alone.
#CORE #CoreDAO #BTC‑Fi#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Full interpretation of the Jackson Hole speech by Walsh
⏰ Beijing time 22:00, overall tone: neutral to hawkish, no clear commitment to a September rate hike, but all rate hike options remain on the table
⚠️ The following is market information interpretation only and does not constitute any investment advice
Key points from the original speech
Inflation stance (hawkish core)
Reaffirmed the firm defense of the 2% inflation target, absolutely no acceptance of inflation persistently above target; July PCE shows inflation remains stubborn, inflation risks have not disappeared
No pre-commitment to a rate path: each meeting has the possibility of a rate hike or no change, fully dependent on subsequent data, continuing to implement the removal of forward guidance, data-driven decision-making model
Did not explicitly say there will be a rate hike in September, nor did it rule out a hike.
US Treasury long-end yields
Acknowledged the rise in long-end yields objectively tightens financial conditions; did not intervene to "rescue the bond market," did not endorse Treasury's long bond repurchase operations, clearly separating monetary policy from fiscal debt operations.
Financial innovation/stablecoins (key theme this time)
Recognized stablecoins and tokenized deposits as real financial innovations; emphasized the need for strict regulation, requiring full high-liquidity reserves and comprehensive issuer supervision, no broadly positive easing statements for crypto, nor harsh bans.
Focused on the disruption stablecoins cause to short-term US Treasury market liquidity.
Market immediate reaction
CME interest rate futures: probability of a September rate hike slightly rose from 33% to 36.5%, no change remains the baseline expectation
US Treasuries: 10-year and 30-year yields rose slightly then fluctuated, no one-sided sharp rise or fall.
Dollar index: slightly stronger with fluctuations.
BTC: short-term rapid fluctuations, initially dipping slightly then rebounding; altcoins more volatile.
Summary on BTC
The speech is considered **"negative factors are partially priced in, no unexpectedly hawkish surprise, nor dovish relief"**.
No worst-case scenario: no direct preview of a rate hike;
No positive scenario: no signal to pause tightening;
The big picture suspense is fully handed over to the next data set: September 11 CPI inflation data → September 16 FOMC meeting.
Key upcoming focus order
1) 9.11 US CPI (most important, decides September rate hike)
2) Weekly initial jobless claims
3) Whether the 30-year US Treasury yield breaks 5.3%
Practical tips
Now is a data-driven battle window, avoid betting on one-sided moves; CPI is the real decisive factor.
If CPI rebounds and rises again → September rate hike expectations surge, BTC under pressure;
If CPI continues to fall and cool down → rate hike expectations decline, risk assets get breathing room. 1. The Signal Behind the Summit: More Than Just an Industry Carnival The Bitcoin Asia Summit held in Hong Kong has long gone beyond the scope of an ordinary industry gathering. The prestige of the attendees is enough to demonstrate the significance of this grand event—in addition to blockchain industry practitioners, Hong Kong legislators and heads of leading overseas institutions will attend, along with industry icons like Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and Justin Sun taking the stage to jointly discuss Bitcoin's long-term landscape over the coming decades and the direction of global capital flows. This change in the attendance lineup itself sends a strong signal: the Bitcoin market is moving from a "niche circle" to a "mainstream view," and dialogue between regulators, traditional financial institutions, and the crypto industry has shifted from "tentative contact" to "substantive discussion." A few years ago, large crypto summits were just gatherings for developers and retail traders, with topics mostly focused on technological upgrades and short-term market fluctuations. But this time, the venue was packed with family offices, overseas public funds, listed company CFOs, and policymakers. People no longer just talked about speculation and speculation; the topics shifted to corporate asset allocation, cross-border fund flows, compliant custody, and national-level digital asset strategies. The lively venue was just a surface-level spectacle. The real game took place outside the venue on the battlefield of capital. Hong Kong is becoming a hub for crypto capital in Asia, with a clear regulatory framework already in place, giving global institutions a sense of reassurance. When rules are no longer blurred, trillion-yuan capital has finally found its placeThis news brief in simple terms: AI usage is increasing, but the cost per call is getting cheaper.
First, look at this report from JPMorgan: OpenRouter's token volume in August increased by 47% month-over-month, while spending only increased by 7% month-over-month.
What does this indicate? Demand is indeed expanding, but the market is also competitive, with low-cost models grabbing volume.
Looking at pricing, the volume-weighted average price dropped 28% month-over-month, indicating that a price war has already started.
Low-cost models like GPT-5.6 Luna contributed most of the incremental volume, meaning "cheap and effective" is more favored.
Impact going forward: computing power leasing and related hardware demand will be driven, but mid-to-high price models and leasing-end profits will face more pressure.
Regarding the details about B200 and DRAM in the headline, the screenshot context is incomplete, so treat it as a brief news update and avoid over-interpretation.The stronger Nvidia's earnings report, the more AI trading enters a "nitpicking stage"
In the past, the market only needed one phrase: demand explosion. Now that's no longer enough. Revenue beating expectations, strong orders, and continued growth in data centers—these have all been anticipated. What truly affects valuation are the less glamorous details like gross margin, memory costs, customer concentration, and #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
The latest core PCE inflation remained flat compared to last month, with inflation stickiness still stubborn and a clear gap from the 2% target; the resilience of the US economy and employment exceeded expectations, leaving the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.
The biggest change since Wash took office is the complete weakening of forward guidance, cancellation of the dot plot forecast, and refusal to give future interest rate commitments, advocating that policy decisions rely entirely on real-time economic data at each meeting. This is also the market's biggest concern: the lack of clear guidance will amplify volatility in the bond market and risk assets.
Three speech scenarios simulation
Scenario 1: Hawkish stance (low probability)
Emphasize the slow decline of inflation, keep the option of rate hikes within the year, and do not release easing signals. US Treasury yields rise rapidly, the US dollar strengthens, BTC faces pressure at high levels, and is likely to retest the key support at 77,500‑78,000.
Scenario 2: Neutral and pragmatic (highest probability)
Reaffirm the 2% inflation target without change, continue to downplay forward guidance, only explain the Federal Reserve's framework reform ideas, and make no hints about the September rate decision meeting. The market maintains high-level oscillation, BTC continues to range between 78,000‑81,000, awaiting subsequent nonfarm payroll and inflation data releases.
Scenario 3: Dovish and reassuring (very low probability)
Acknowledge marginal cooling of inflation, signal that high interest rates can be maintained gradually, dispelling market fears of aggressive rate hikes. US Treasury yields fall, risk asset sentiment warms, and BTC is expected to challenge the 80,000 level again.$PURR ’s report explains why $HYPE is attracting attention. PURR holds ~29.3M HYPE worth ~$1.9B, with no debt, but its $30.55M profit includes unrealized gains; actual staking and validator income was ~$9.5M.
The bigger story is the flywheel: Hyperliquid fees → HYPE buybacks → higher HYPE value → stronger PURR NAV → more financing → more HYPE purchases.
PURR could become a “stock-ification” vehicle for HYPE. But with mNAV near 1.35x. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware NVIDIA's earnings report far exceeded expectations, with data center revenue surging significantly and pushing the stock up after hours. Initially, it was expected that the storage sector would benefit as well, but instead, the leading stocks gained while the smaller ones suffered.
Micron, SNDK SanDisk, and Western Digital all plunged collectively, with only SK Hynix barely holding the red zone thanks to HBM orders. SanDisk's highest gain this year has already exceeded 500%, with a large amount of profit-taking piled up at high levels. Once positive news is realized, funds cash out and exit. Additionally, with the news of a ¥31 billion expansion in Japan, the market has started to worry about subsequent oversupply. Coupled with NVIDIA's warning about rising memory costs, capital has directly withdrawn from the high-level storage sector and flowed back into the computing power mainline.
After a sharp rise to 1585, the price quickly fell back and is now fluctuating around 1460. The 15-minute trend has already weakened, with resistance above at 1489-1494, which is a previous dense chip area. If it can't break through, selling pressure will continue to be digested. The first support below is at 1462; if that doesn't hold, it will test the low at 1440.
Many are still hoping for a surge to 2000, but in this differentiated market, one must be wary of an A-shaped drop. All the positive earnings news has already been priced in, and before high-level chips are sufficiently cleared, blindly chasing highs is very likely to catch the last leg down. Don't be misled by market illusions; in this storage rally, it's not about being bullish but about respecting profit-taking. Be especially cautious with high-level contract leverage, as a single spike can directly wipe out positions. Be patient and wait for the consolidation to end before discussing a new round of rallies.
$SNDK Grayscale CEO made a bold statement: Don't just look at the price, institutions are entering the market.
The data indeed looks good—Bitcoin ETP daily flows have repeatedly exceeded $500 million, which is 12 times the daily output of miners; 73% of institutional investors plan to increase their holdings, and 60% of Fortune 500 companies are advancing blockchain projects.
But there is a subtle narrative shift here: from "Bitcoin versus traditional finance" to "traditional finance embracing Bitcoin." Mintzberg's phrase "entering the existing regulatory framework" translates to—crypto is becoming part of TradFi.
Is this a victory or a compromise? When EY's survey becomes a source of industry confidence, and institutional allocation becomes an argument for a bull market, this industry is no longer the rebellious youth "bypassing banks."
The complementary theory of AI + blockchain is also intriguing: one is responsible for computing power, the other for trust, together forming the story template Wall Street loves the most.Caught the falling knife at 1500 on SanDisk, quick and decisive
Last night’s SanDisk scenario, I’m familiar with it, so familiar I want to slap myself.
Opened high, turned red, then plunged—three moves as smooth as Dove chocolate. I was right at the 1500 mark, watching the market, my mind racing with calculations: dropped from 2382, a deep 35% pit, earnings multiplied several times, gross margin hit 84%, there should be a rebound, right? So I hesitated briefly and went long.
Then the market schooled me, lesson after lesson.
1460 broke like it was made of paper, I was stunned. Why the drop? Not some earth-shattering bad news, just two points: first, the guidance didn’t satisfy Wall Street’s hungry wolves—they wanted 10.8 billion, you gave 10.55 billion, just a bite short, and they turned on you faster than flipping a page; second, rumors that Apple might buy storage from another supplier sent the market into a panic, as if NAND prices were about to crash like cabbage. Simply put, it had risen too much before, who doesn’t have some floating profits? When the wind shifts, they run faster than rabbits.
Do you think 1500 was a bad spot? I don’t. PE, buybacks, fundamentals, none of those are weak, but the entire storage sector is tanking, and no matter how strong SanDisk is, it can’t withstand the collective collapse of its weak teammates.
This time, consider it tuition paid to the market. Now I’m watching the show around 1440, waiting for volume to shrink and the drop to stall before making a move. Catching a falling knife too early means the knife is still falling and your hand is still bleeding. Next time, I’ll wait for it to bounce on the ground a couple of times before picking it up. $SNDK Up 25% in a week, SOL has crushed 100 underfoot, the wildest in the market
$SOL current price 107.5, up nearly 7% in 24 hours, soaring 25% in a week, rising 36.5% from 77.18 on August 18 — 9 days, directly becoming the second hottest in the top ten by market cap.
Why so strong? Three words: real money.
First, ETFs are crazy. Net inflows totaled a record 1.22 billion, with Monday’s single-day 33.5 million being the largest this year; Bitwise’s BSOL alone absorbed 950 million, who wouldn’t love a free annualized 5.7% staking yield? Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab have also joined — this is no longer retail coins.
Second, on-chain is pumped. Last week, 1.3 billion non-voting transactions set a record, DEX trading volume has beaten Coinbase and Bybit globally for 9 consecutive weeks, with 16 billion stablecoins lying on-chain waiting for the wind.
Third, supply is about to unleash a big move. Governance proposals SGP-0002 and SGP-0003 are voting; if passed, 18.9 million fewer SOL (about 1.7 billion USD) will be issued over the next 6 years, the deflation narrative is really coming.
But don’t get carried away: RSI once surged to 84, contract positions at 7.1 billion, leverage piled high, one fall could trigger a chain explosion.
Key levels: above 110, hold to see 120-135; below 100, 94.4, break down to watch the 200-day line at 81.
In short: institutional bull + deflation expectations + on-chain explosion, SOL is serious this round, but overbought is overbought — chasing highs feels good for a moment, liquidation is a funeral pyre. I’m waiting for a pullback near 100, not chasing, got it?
#Solana mainnet acceleration, will node thresholds rise?
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SOL has traded around $100 six times over the past five years, but its valuation kept changing:
2021 → $29B
2022 → $34B
2023 → $43B
2025 → $52B
2026 → $57B
Aug 2026 → $59B
Same $100 price, completely different market cap. While the chart may look similar, Solana’s valuation has nearly doubled. That’s the key point: $100 $SOL today represents a much larger network and market than the $100 $SOL of previous years.
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware SOL's community snapshots provide both popularity and tone, but not necessarily on the same side. As of 06:00 on August 28, OKX Onchain OS recorded 71 mentions of SOL in one hour, including 69 x mentions and 2 news articles; The total for 24 hours was 652. The latest hour is 2.61 times the long-window hourly average, which is about 161% higher than the 24-hour average, which can be classified as "clearly accelerating." This speed describes new discussions and is not necessarily related to market fluctuations. The text tone is 72% bullish, 7% bearish, and about 21% neutral, currently classified as "clearly bullish dominance." 55% bullish and 7% bearish in 24 hours; If there is a gap between the two windows, it should first be understood as a change in discussion structure, rather than directly defering the price target. I would separate these two lines. If the tone is excessive but mentions slow down, it means the current discussion is more positive, but new attention hasn't accelerated; If mentions increase and the bias is bearish but dominant, it may be a risk or faulty message attracting people. Even if the buzz and tone are in the same direction, it still cannot be directly equated with genuine buying. Sources are another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels respond fastest, and the same topic can be repeatedly shared; The more concentrated the sources, the more the next window needs confirmation. An increase in news mentions does not automatically mean the event is true; the original announcement remains the final verification standard. Within 24 hours, SMorning of August 28 BTC Futures
Entry: Short around 2535-2555, stop loss at 2575, first target 2490, second target 2460.
From the 1-hour BTC Futures chart, the price has strongly rebounded from the low of 2431, surged to around 2566, then faced resistance and pulled back, currently consolidating near 2508. The short-term moving averages on the hourly chart have turned downward, exerting clear pressure on the price. The 2535-2555 zone above is a dense area of previous high-volume chips from the earlier surge and pullback, gathering many short-term profit takers and trapped positions, making it easy for the rebound to be resisted again here. MACD shows a high-level death cross downward, with bullish momentum rapidly weakening. After continuous rallies, the market needs further correction and consolidation. This is a pullback consolidation after a strong rise.
Do not chase longs; wait for a rebound to the resistance zone before entering short positions. Place stop loss at 2575; if volume breaks through this level, it indicates continuation of the bullish structure, and the strategy should be adjusted promptly. First target is 2490; after reaching it, reduce positions in batches; if 2490 is effectively broken down, continue holding and look toward 2460. During this high-level consolidation phase, operate with light positions and set stop losses properly. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ I really like and am optimistic about Axis Robotics. Unfortunately, I'm naturally clumsy, and I can never get the robotic arm tasks right. It's not for lack of trying; I sincerely gave it a shot, but still no success... This feeling is like in Sun Ge's new-new-new concept essay "My Girlfriend Jing Tian" — clearly loving deeply, yet ultimately unable to be with her. I asked ChatGPT and got a calm response: Give up and do what you're good at. Helplessly, I painfully let go and can only tearfully say to Princess @0xsexybanana: Sorry, Mom, let me love you one last time! @axisrobotics --- Back to the main topic, let's seriously talk about Axis Robotics. Recently, Axis Robotics got listed on Katalyst and announced a partnership with Binance Wallet, so the hype has definitely picked up, causing many to mistakenly think: Axis Robotics is the leader in Physical AI. But I have to pour cold water: Axis Robotics is still just a small player, somewhat like Sun Ge before he rose to fame. Next, with an objective attitude, without hype or bashing, let's re-examine Axis Robotics' position in the industry. Axis Robotics is actually the "shovel seller" in Physical AI; they don't build robots but solve what robots lack: training data. Teleoperation, task generation, simulation, data collection, quality verification