$1490 SNDK, do you dare to bottom-fish?
Let's look at the surface first: from 2354 to 1490, a 36% drop, retail investors are panicking and cursing.
On June 22, it peaked at 2354, then continued to fluctuate downward. After hitting 1780+ in mid-August, it quickly plunged to 1416-1420, then closed back to 1480-1520. The leading AI storage stock, which rose 500%+ in one year, now has pulled back 36%—the candlestick tells you: 1420 has been held three times, a double-bottom pattern has appeared, and selling pressure is gradually fading.
First thing: The company's fundamentals are ridiculously strong, but you're scared out of your wits by the candlesticks.
In mid-August, SanDisk launched a "new business model": multi-year guaranteed minimum price long-term contract, weighted term about 4 years, with a guaranteed contract value of $93.9 billion, plus $16.5 billion in customer financial guarantees. Management targets for about 80% gross margin in FY2028-2030, with 100% excess cash returned to shareholders.
FY2026 revenue was about $20.25 billion, +175% year-on-year, net profit about $11.43 billion, and EPS about $73.8. In Q4, gross margin once surged to 84.6%.
Second: institutions and SK Hynix are promoting HBF standards, and Kioxia is planning over $31 billion in Japanese capacity expansion.
The direction is clear: to compete for AI inference side storage, not just consumer-grade SD cards.
Retail investors are still eyeing the old framework of "consumer electronics recovery," while institutions are already trading new valuation models for "AI storage long-term contract cash bulls." YTD rose 500%+; they have earned enough but haven't fully left—they are waiting for the next catalyst.
Third: The candlestick has shown a signal that must be taken seriously.
1420 area: 8/24 hammer low point, bought after a mid-August plunge, holding for the third time since June. This is the prototype of the three-bottom structure and ironclad evidence of growing buying power.
But at the 1600-1690 range, SNDK hit a wall twice. The showdown between bulls and bears is about to erupt.
The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you
On one side:
1420 holds three times, revealing a three-bottom structure
93.9 billion yuan guaranteed contract + 16.5 billion yuan guarantee, with extremely strong cash flow certainty
Enterprise-level AI SSD shortage, long-term logic remains unbroken
Forward PE can be pushed down to single digits
On one side:
It rose 500% in one year, with huge profits
Institutions are shifting from SNDK to TSMC—"Re-allocation after a big rally"
On the consumer side, inventory digestion is slow, and structural differentiation occurs
The 1600-1690 level has failed twice, with resistance still active
Resistance above: 1528-1550 → 1570-1600→ 1690-1790 (50-day moving average + August rebound high)
Support below: 1450-1485 → 1415-1425 (lifeline) → 1330-1355
Operational strategy
Short-term players:
Go long between 1450-1465, stop loss at 1410, target 1528-1550, see 1580-1600 if it breaks out. Test short at 1570-1600, stop loss at 1625-1640, target 1520-1485. Before the box is broken, sell high and buy low.
Swing players:
After a false break below 1420, quickly pull back and reclaim 1450, consider it a false break, and chase long targets at 1528-1580. Alternatively, wait for the daily chart to stabilize above 1600 before entering on the right side.
Mid-line players:
1350-1450 is a high-quality position range. As long as 1420 closes below 1420, the medium-term trend is bullish. Next observation window: early November earnings report—that will be the key to verifying guidance and whether gross margin can survive.
Risk Control Checklist (Must Read)
Single loss control at 1.5%-2% of principal
Avoid market orders within 15 minutes before and after the US market opens
Focus on MU/SK Hynix/Western Digital Linkage—Storage is the sector's pricing
A resonance of "China risk + sector declines + funding rate turning positive and crowded" resonated, prioritizing position reduction
SNDK now is like NVIDIA in 2024—
99% of people think, "If it rose 500%, it should fall," but after a 30% drawdown, it rose another 200%.
On the day it breaks through 1600, you'll notice:
It turns out it's not that SNDK is ineffective, but that you always cut losses when panic is at its peak.
How much does your SNDK cost?
At the 1490 level, do you dare to bottom-fish?
$SNDK$MU$NVDA
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