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NVIDIA #美国核心PCE持平上月, How will the Jackson Hole speech set the tone? Optical modules & high-speed interconnects (indirect conduction)
AI server internal bandwidth expansion and cluster interconnection demand are rising simultaneously. Large-scale HBM expansion corresponds to increased computing power density per server, with synchronized growth in the usage of high-speed optical interconnects and high-speed interfaces. The expansion of computing clusters will continuously drive demand for 800G/1.6T optical modules, which is a supporting benefit of computing power expansion.
💡 Market Thoughts
The main theme of the past AI market was NVIDIA GPUs; now the logic is shifting upstream: HBM storage has officially become the new bottleneck for AI computing power.
NVIDIA sacrifices short-term gross margin to lock in upstream capacity, essentially buying certainty for computing power expansion over the next 1-2 years.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Locking in a prosperous long-term contract does not mean the stock price will immediately rise unilaterally. The valuation of upstream targets, inventory cycles, and Federal Reserve interest rate fluctuations will still cause disturbances; tonight's liquidity statement at the Jackson Hole annual meeting will determine the sustainability of the semiconductor sector's rebound.现在BTC市场，两拨人在打架。 一拨是华尔街的ETF玩家，6月砸了40.6亿美元跑路，创下ETF上市以来最惨纪录。 另一拨是链上的老鲸鱼，同一时间段扫货167亿美元，扫了27万枚BTC。 两边看的都是同一个BTC，做的却是完全相反的决定。 你说，谁错了？ 我把多空双方的核心逻辑都摆出来，你自己判断： 🐻 空头的核心证据： 美联储维持鹰派，年内还可能加息 ETF连续5天净流出，累计18亿美元 短期持有者95%以上处于亏损 美元指数DXY 30天涨2.1%，10年期美债收益率站上4.5% Strategy可能卖币12.5亿美元筹资 🐂 多头的核心证据： 鲸鱼两周扫货27万BTC，超过ETF全月卖出量 长期持有者7月开始净增持 7月3日ETF重新净流入2.21亿美元，抛压熄火 EMC Labs判定市场进入"周期级熊市后期" 历史规律：ETF-鲸鱼背离出现后，60天内平均反弹20-30% 我的判断（人话版）： 现在不是"牛熊之争"，是"最后一洗"。6万美元从支撑变成了心理阻力，短期内BTC会在5.8万-6.3万反复磨。真正的趋势反转信号只有一个——ETF连续净流入+稳定币开始进场扫货。在那While Nvidia itself is strengthening, upstream sectors such as memory and optical modules are collectively rising, which is not a coincidental emotional follow-up but supported by solid order logic behind the scenes.
The earnings call revealed core hub data: Nvidia's multi-year supply commitments surged from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion, a single-quarter increase of 134%, with the vast majority of the new increment used to lock in long-term memory (HBM) capacity agreements.
CEO Huang is not merely forecasting downstream demand but is directly stepping in, using massive long-term contracts to pre-purchase and lock in upstream core capacity. The bottleneck for AI computing power expansion has shifted from GPUs to HBM high-bandwidth memory.
📌 Industry chain transmission breakdown, two main logical lines diverge:
✅ Memory (the most direct beneficiary)
Nvidia's CFO clearly stated: memory has entered an extreme price increase cycle, and prices will continue to rise next year.
Nvidia is willing to sacrifice profitability and actively accept cost increases, guiding Q4 gross margin down to 71-72%, effectively using its own gross margin as official endorsement for memory price hikes.
Large long-term contracts locking capacity + tight supply and demand price hike expectations, shortages bring pricing power; Micron MU, SK Hynix SKHY, SanDisk $SNDK all strengthened simultaneously after hours, significantly enhancing the certainty of the memory cycle uptrend. To be honest, when BTC fell below 60,000 on June 30 and touched the 21-month low of 58,075 USD, I panicked too. The Fear and Greed Index was 15, extremely fearful. My social circle was full of "bull market is over" and "zero warning". But after staying up late to analyze on-chain data, I actually calmed down. Because the data shows: the real whales didn’t sell a single drop; instead, they were buying frantically. Let me share some counterintuitive facts: Fact 1: The US Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 4.06 billion USD in June, the worst ever. Sounds scary? But the day after June 30 (July 3), the ETF saw a net inflow of 221 million USD—selling pressure instantly extinguished. Fact 2: In the past two weeks, whale wallets have scooped up 270,000 BTC, worth 16.7 billion USD. These wallets hold 1000+ BTC and are among the most informed players in the market. Fact 3: Glassnode’s definition of "long-term holders" (wallets that haven’t moved coins for over 155 days) started net increasing holdings in July, in the range of 50,000 to 100,000 BTC. In plain terms: retail investors sold at 59,000 USD, whales built positions at 59,000 USD. Chips transferred from the weak to the strong—this is the most typical pattern at cycle bottoms. EMC Labs’ cycle model also gives the same judgment: after the big drop in June, BTC officially entered the "late cycle bear market" phase. What does late phase mean? It means the clearing is near the end, but the turning point is not confirmed yet. If you didn’t sell in June, give me a 👍 so I can see it. If you sold at 59. Sun Yuchen is trending again, this time because of Jing Tian.
But more intriguing than the gossip is this: why is the first reaction of the crypto community whenever a big figure in the space gets into trouble always "Is my coin okay?"
This reflexive panic precisely reveals one thing—the crypto market still hasn't escaped the narrative trap of "personal worship." The success or failure of projects hinges on one person, and the industry's reputation is tied to KOLs.
Will Sun Yuchen's TRX, HT, USDD, and the entire Tron ecosystem be affected? Most likely not. But the very question of "will it be affected" is the biggest irony in a decentralized world.
True DeFi shouldn't ask "What if the boss gets into trouble?" but rather "Does it even matter if there's a boss or not?".$BTC being stuck at 80k for several days is expected.
After August 17, the US $BTC ETF saw very strong capital inflows consecutively, with daily inflows of approximately 298 million, 189 million, 517 million, 606 million, 308 million, 338 million, 314 million, and 232 million USD respectively, only noticeably cooling down on the 27th.
BTC adds 450 new miners daily, which at 80k USD amounts to only 36 million USD per day, but this is not the main pressure point.
Nearly 8% of BTC circulating supply has its last moved price concentrated between 80k–82k, with nearly 5% just around 80k, making this one of the largest single cost-intensive zones currently.
Even the average cost of historical ETF investors is concentrated between 80k–82k.
Many might think that with such large ETF inflows, BTC would easily break through 80k, but my judgment is completely the opposite. If over 2 billion USD in ETF buying continues, and BTC really surges to 90k, I would actually worry that the market has been prematurely overextended.
80k can be seen as the most critical turnover zone in this bull cycle’s correction; the moment macro sentiment warms up, BTC will quickly break through upwards.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
$HYPE $ENA $TAO ETH at $2540—do you want to chase it? Let's look at the surface: 34% rise in 30 days, retail investors shout "ETH rises" From mid-August around 1800-1900 to 2540, it rose 12% in 7 days and 34% in 30 days. Market value returned to the top two, with 24-hour trading volume surging. The time to tackle challenges has arrived: hold firm and take off, fail to pull back. First thing: ETF is buying like crazy, but you might have been fooled by a short squeeze Stock net inflow of 180 million on August 25, 192 million on the 26th, nearly 700 million USD for the entire week — the strongest inflow week since 2026. BlackRock ETHA was the main force. BitMine bought another 32,400 coins, pushing its holdings to 5.847 million, close to 4.8% of circulating supply. It jumped from 1900 to 2540, and a long squeeze has already wiped out a large amount of short positions. To go further up, it's not about explosive short selling, but about real cash buying. Institutions are buying, but the pace is slowing. Second: supply is tightening, which is the toughest bottom in the medium term. The staked amount is 42 million tokens, accounting for 33%-35% of circulating supply. Combined with ETF custody and corporate treasuries, the available spot on exchanges is shrinking. Staking ETFs have already been launched (BlackRock ETHB, Grayscale ETHE). Institutions buying ETH are no longer just betting on price swings—they can also enjoy net returns just above 2%. Circulating supply is shrinking, selling interest is drying up. Institutions buying ETH offers "rental income + price increases," making it more attractive. Q4 GlamsterdaTo be honest, I was stunned when I saw this set of data—BlackRock has been buying $BTC and $ETH for 8 consecutive days, pouring in a total of $3.16 billion,
27,700 BTC plus 385,600 ETH. This is not something retail investors can do; this is institutions "stockpiling."
What concerns me even more is that BlackRock's overall crypto holdings surged from $53.3 billion to $68.4 billion in August, a monthly increase of $15 billion, or 28%.
Last week, IBIT's trading volume hit the highest positive weekly record since its launch in January 2024, with gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracting a combined $7 billion last week, directly breaking the 5-day cycle historical record.
But I also remind myself not to get carried away. Researchers at HashKey said that using single-day ETF inflows to predict BTC price movements the next day has weak predictive power; continuous inflows are more of a "trend confirmation" rather than a "leading indicator."
So my view is: this looks more like institutions systematically building positions after "bottom confirmation" in the $60,000 to $70,000 pullback range, rather than short-term speculation.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 最近链上巨鲸的挂单数据引起了不少讨论，四笔大额委托在比特币、以太坊、HYPE 和 ZEC 上合计接近 2.5 亿美元，乍看之下颇有几分山雨欲来的意味。不过与其被数字吓到，不如先冷静拆解这些大资金到底在表达什么。 比特币这边，一位巨鲸在 77,833 美元附近开了 46.8 枚的多单，40 倍全仓，杠杆并不低。更值得留意的是他下方 72,222 至 77,522 美元区间挂了 1,176 枚买单，上方 81,504 至 108,888 美元挂了 928 枚卖单。从挂单结构看，这位玩家其实是在赌价格围绕 77,500 到 81,500 美元做区间震荡，并没有单边看涨或看跌的强烈倾向。上下两头都留了余地，典型的区间交易思路。 以太坊那边则有另一番姿态。一位巨鲸以 25 倍全仓做空 3,000 枚 ETH，均价在 2,460 美元附近。他的买单挂在 2,000 至 2,400 美元区间，卖单则在 2,533 至 2,900 美元之间。这组数据透露出他对短期走势偏谨慎，甚至认为 2,400 美元这个位置未必守得住，愿意等更低的价格再接回来。做空的同时下方又挂着买单，说明他并不是纯粹看衰，而是想在Guys, watching the market today really made my heart race and a bit wistful. BTC finally broke above the $80,000 mark again, with US spot ETFs seeing net inflows for eight consecutive days. This money was definitely a big buy. ETH also followed suit, climbing back above $2,500. The worst off were the bears, who were liquidated nearly $370 million in the past 24 hours, nearly 70% of which were short positions. In this market, short selling is really licking blood on the edge of a knife. 📈 But excitement aside, as a seasoned veteran who has been navigating the market for years, I tend to watch the undercurrents during the celebration. There are a few news pieces today that I think are even more worth reflecting on than BTC breaking 80,000. You may not have noticed that global regulators have recently taken action on "stablecoins" and "RWAs." Domestically, seven major financial associations issued risk warnings, clearly defining stablecoins, mining, and RWA tokenization as illegal. This is the largest crypto crackdown since 2021. Even more interestingly, in judicial practice, courts have clearly defined the exchange of USDT for RMB and US dollars as "disguised foreign exchange trading," establishing a "four-layer blockade" that blocks mining, blocks payments, blocks RWA, and eliminates fraud. But the magic is that while mainland China has completely banned it, neighboring Hong Kong has introduced a stablecoin license system and allowed RWA tokenization pilots, reportedly with 80 institutions already applying. This bittersweet situation actually illustrates a core logic: regulation is not about completely eliminating the crypto industry, but about "incorporation" and "acceptance."#BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies key level battles 1. Upward driving force: largely short squeeze covering, not entirely new long entries; ETFs have continuous net inflow increments, but there is strong profit-taking pressure at high levels.
2. Short-term disturbance: $6.44 billion BTC options expire concentratedly, fierce long-short battles in the $75,000–$80,000 range, volatility will be amplified.
3. Macro variables: PCE inflation stickiness remains, Jackson Hole speech sets rate expectations, a hawkish tilt will directly suppress risk assets.
——Current period is an intense event window, avoid full positions, avoid all in, keep cash buffer to cope with options expiration + macro speech induced spikes.
✔ In the volatile market phase, prioritize allocating BTC, ETF funds mainly flow into BTC, liquidity is best; $BTC
✔ $ is currently in a rebound verification phase, not a blind bull market. Hold the base position, play event-driven positions lightly with position isolation, focus on whether ETF buying can absorb high-level selling pressure, and respect the macro risks from Jackson Hole. Almost became the one chasing the high price...
Last night Micron $xMU opened +3%, I admit, my hands itched at that moment. Nvidia's earnings were so explosive, HBM is Micron's home turf, the logic loop was textbook perfect—orders at $967 were all filled.
Before submitting the order, I did one thing: I looked at the gap-up opening position, then asked myself, "If this order fills, where do I set my stop loss?" The answer was below 940, while the current price was $967. The stop loss space was 2.7%, and the position chasing in couldn't even withstand a normal fluctuation. The order was canceled.
Then came the drama: the intraday low was 911.50, closing at 914.64, down 2.53%. The brothers who chased the high at open are now starting with a 5% floating loss, and this is on a "good news realization" day.
This trade that didn't happen is worth more than most trades that did. It reminded me of three things:
1. Event-driven gap-ups are the thinnest liquidity slaughterhouses;
2. Stocks up 213% this year, the day of good news realization is the day of concentrated selling pressure;
3. Positions without a settable stop loss are equivalent to having no stop loss.
$xMU is still on my watchlist, the HBM story isn't over. But when it comes to entry points, better to wait three days than to rush a second. Going to sleep now
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码 August 28 ENA Observation | Stablecoin mechanisms are hot, but that doesn't mean governance tokens are risk-free
ENA returns to a high-interest area today. Rather than just looking at price fluctuations, it's better to first clarify the relationship among the Ethena protocol, USDe, and ENA. The Ethena official documentation defines USDe as a crypto-native synthetic dollar: the protocol holds spot underlying assets while simultaneously establishing short derivative positions of equal nominal scale, attempting to hedge and reduce the price volatility of the underlying assets. The underlying assets are custodied through an over-the-counter settlement scheme and diversified among multiple service providers, but this does not eliminate risks such as negative funding rates, liquidity, custody operations, and counterparty risks. When funding rates remain deeply negative for a prolonged period, the protocol design requires the reserve fund to bear the related costs, which is a factor that cannot be ignored when assessing stress scenarios. ENA itself is primarily a governance token used to elect the risk committee and participate in protocol decisions; it is not USDe, nor does it automatically gain equivalent value backing just because the USDe scale expands. Going forward, more attention should be paid to how the hedge positions, reserve fund, governance execution, and token supply change synchronously. Popularity is a topic, not a proof of safety. $ENA #ENA
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.$BTC $DOGE
Who is Sun Ge? A big shot in the crypto circle, a gray-market tycoon under border control. In the past, this kind of matter could never have spread on mainstream domestic media platforms because the demographic of people who love gossip basically ranges from teenagers to those in their 40s. Most people's first reaction when seeing this content is "Who is Sun Yuchen?" and "What does he do to make tens of billions of dollars?" When this group learns that Sun Yuchen got rich quickly through the crypto circle, it will inevitably lead some of these gossip lovers to understand or even enter the crypto space. Obviously, this runs counter to the previous suppression policies. Don't just focus on how much BTC and ETH have risen; it's interesting to dig down along the on-chain positions—who's still holding long positions, secretly trying short at high levels? After Nvidia's earnings report, what expectations are xyz:NVDA trading on-chain. To get straight to the point: looking at prices and high-performing address samples over the past 30 days, the dominant direction remains bullish, but the market is no longer in the stage of blindly buying everything to rise. The daily gains are large enough, and short-term indicators have entered a hot zone. The trend in the past few hours has already started to diverge. In the past two weeks, BTC has risen 23.66%, ETH 30.43%, and HYPE has surged even more sharply, reaching 49.21%. Just looking at these numbers, it's easy to conclude that "risk appetite has fully returned," which is what people commonly call a bull recovery. Has the bull really returned? The market has actually been uneven these days: in snapshots, BTC is at $78,826, down 0.13% intraday; ETH is at $2,491.9, up 1.33% intraday; HYPE is at $81.573, down 0.49% for the day. The strong trend remains, but the coins have already gone their separate ways. Smart money on the chain shows exactly the same divergence. We scanned 150 candidate accounts selected from the Hyperliquid leaderboard, then filtered out samples that were profitable over the past 30 days and still hold positions. In this sample, BTC and ETH are the most common#BTC surged then pulled back, options expiry amplifies the key level battle $BTC surged from around 62,000 to 81,000 in one go this week, reaching a high of 81,200 on August 25 before pulling back. Yesterday it surged again to around 80,800 but couldn't hold, then retracted to fluctuate between 80,200–80,500. This is not a crash, but a surge followed by a pullback.
Today the real volatility is in options. On Deribit, about 81,700 contracts with a notional value of $630–640 million expire at 4 PM. Calls outnumber puts, with a PCR around 0.83. Positions cluster at 75,000 and 80,000 strikes: calls at 75,000 have a notional of about $236 million, at 80,000 about $157 million, with over $500 million within 5% of the current price. The biggest pain point remains between 68,000 and 70,000, far from the current price, so don’t use that as a reason for a dump.
My view: 81,000 is the first solid resistance in this rebound. Bears are unloading here, while call options are stuck at 80,000. Market makers hedging will keep pressing the price repeatedly at this threshold. This is not evidence of a trend ending, but friction due to expiry. To be blunt: tonight is also the Jackson Hole symposium. Options expiry combined with macro speeches is likely to cause swings both ways. If 80,000 breaks, look to 78,500; only a real break above 81,200 confirms this rebound. Don’t max out leverage before expiry; the key level battle is about who cracks first, not who shouts louder.On August 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released July personal income and expenditure data: the overall PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year; Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Overall, year-on-year was higher than the market general expectation of 3.6%, while the core data was roughly in line with expectations. Let's clarify the timing: the data corresponds to July, which was only released on August 26; Reuters and the Associated Press conducted independent verification based on BEA data that day. The key point of these figures is not just "0.1 percentage points higher." BEA also shows that real consumer spending in July showed almost no month-on-month increase, and the personal savings rate fell to 3.0%. In other words, inflation remains significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, but real consumer momentum is weak. Policy faces the dilemma of "price pressures remaining, demand is slowing," rather than a single direction of boom or recession. The next observation point is Jackson Hole. The Fed's official website schedule shows that Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver a keynote speech at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on August 28, which is 10 p.m. Beijing time tonight. At the time of this article's release, the speech had not yet taken place, and any specific judgments about rate hikes, cuts, or asset purchases are merely speculation and should not be considered confirmed policies. Why is the crypto market paying attention? First, if the speech emphasizes lowering inflation, the market may raise expectations for how long interest rates will remain high. U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar would increase the opportunity cost of holding interest-free risk assets. Second, if the speech is more concerning,60,000 USD, broken. Bitcoin dropped to 58,995 USD, a retracement of about 52% from last year's high, and the market sentiment index officially fell into the "extreme fear" zone. But strangely — whales have stopped selling. Data from CoinShares shows that the whale selling pressure that dominated the sell-off in October last year has significantly cooled this time. So the question now is not "will it fall further," but: do these big holders know something we don't? First, why did it fall so badly? Three culprits: 🔪 Culprit one: The Federal Reserve won't cut rates The new chairman Kevin Warsh has taken a hawkish stance; although core PCE met expectations, consumer data exceeded expectations, and the market is now even pricing in a possible rate hike in July. The strengthening dollar naturally leads to selling of "zero-yield assets" like Bitcoin. 🔪 Culprit two: ETF funds are fleeing Net outflows of $1.4 billion from all-asset digital asset ETPs this week. IBIT options trading volume surged to twice the 30-day average, with put options nearly twice the call options, as traders bet Bitcoin will fall another 4.5%-10%. 🔪 Culprit three: Strategy may sell coins Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), holding about 847,000 BTC, announced it might sell coins to raise up to $1.25 billion in cash to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest. Saylor's long-standing "never sell" narrative is shaken, causing a bigger psychological impact on the market than the actual amount sold. But! Reversal signals have also appeared: BTC community heat update: 2.03 times is just attention, not buying pressure
OKX Onchain OS recorded 146 mentions of BTC in one hour at 06:00 on August 28, including 127 from X and 19 from news.
Compared to the 24-hour hourly average, this round's speed is 2.03 times, classified as "significantly accelerated"; the sentiment is 54% bullish and 7% bearish. There is no need to force these two lines into the same conclusion: heat reflects how many people are talking, sentiment reflects the text's bias, and neither can directly substitute for trading volume and capital flow.
If the next round continues with speed, news sources, and actual market transactions together, confidence in judgment will increase; if it quickly returns to the average, this change is more like short-term noise.The market remains patient with the long-term narrative of the two mainstream coins, but the real lessons are often hidden in the shadows of leverage. A trader who once made a name by heavily investing near a thousand yuan in Ethereum and lost $763 million in the February correction due to failure to anticipate risks recently reiterated the slogan "only go long, never short." His logic is not without support: the integration of AI and crypto is seen as the core theme running through 2028, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even Solana all positioned in the imaginative space where computing power and capital intersect. This narrative itself is valid, but history also reminds us that being right about the direction does not mean the process will be smooth. When market consensus is highly unified, the intensity of corrections often exceeds expectations, and overconfident position management is precisely the culprit that turns correct judgments into huge losses. For ordinary participants, rather than obsessing over whether to short, it is better to consider whether their holdings can withstand a round of irrational volatility. On the macro level, PCE data and monetary policy signals from Jackson Hole will continue to dominate short-term liquidity expectations, and whether the AI narrative can continue to deliver requires more practical implementation to verify. Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile, and leveraged operations may amplify losses; please rationally assess your own risk tolerance. #BTC surge and pullback, options expiry amplifies key level battles
BTC surged and then quickly pulled back. Combined with large options expiry, the battle at key levels is amplified. ETH will follow BTC, but its own options position structure will lead to differentiated performance.
Impact on $BTC:
1. Approaching expiry, the Gamma effect becomes prominent. After the initial surge, market makers maintain Delta neutrality, passively selling at high levels to suppress further advances, directly causing the surge and pullback. Key levels with concentrated strike prices become strong attractors, with prices repeatedly testing these positions, resulting in more fake breakouts and noticeable spikes.
2. The maximum pain point becomes the core of short-term battles. If the current price is far from the pain point, funds will pull the price toward it before and after settlement; if the price surges past dense call strike zones, sellers’ hedging pressure will emerge, suppressing the market; if it falls toward dense put strike zones, support buying will appear.
3. Contract linkage amplifies volatility. The surge and pullback combined with options rebalancing and rapid long-short turnover in perpetual contracts easily trigger phased liquidations, intensifying intraday fluctuations. After settlement, Gamma constraints are lifted, short-term suppression disappears, and the market can move in a clearer direction.
Impact on $ETH:
1. ETH is highly correlated with BTC. When BTC experiences intense volatility due to options expiry, ETH mostly follows the rises and falls synchronously. BTC’s surge and pullback will be mirrored by ETH, dominated by Beta characteristics.
2. ETH has independent options positions. If ETH’s call/put holdings are unbalanced, ETH may move independently while BTC remains stable. When BTC is pinned within a range by options, ETH may exhibit stronger or weaker divergence.
3. Volatility transmission: BTC options expiry raises overall market implied volatility, with ETHIV rising in tandem. Short-term volatility often expands more than usual. However, ETH’s options nominal size is generally smaller than BTC’s, so its driving force is secondary, mostly passive following. Only when ETH’s own large strike prices are touched will it show independent moves.
The above is only a market logic analysis and does not constitute investment advice.Friday morning 8.28
From midnight until now, BTC has steadily risen from around 79706 to 81121, up more than 1415 points, currently hovering near 80996; ETH has climbed from 2487 to 2528, now fluctuating around 2525. Both BTC and ETH are in an overall bullish pattern.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC has consecutively closed bullish candles, with price firmly above the moving average, confirming a clear uptrend. Any pullback is a consolidation.
On the 1-hour chart, after continuous bullish moves, BTC has reached the upper Bollinger Band. Short-term overbought conditions suggest a pullback is needed, but the main trend remains unchanged. Pullbacks are buying opportunities.
Friday morning Silk Road: Buy on pullbacks
$BTC: Buy around 80000-80500, target 81500-82000
$ETH: Buy around 2505-2515, target 2565-2585
$SOL $BTC Bitcoin Returns to 80,000, Hong Kong Conference as a “Catalyst” Rather Than an “Engine”
On August 28, Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000, reaching an intraday high of $80,799. Coinciding on the same day, Bitcoin Asia 2026 concluded at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, with the timing closely aligned, naturally drawing market attention to whether the conference “ignited” this rally.
The conference indeed released positive signals: Binance founder CZ’s “comeback” speech was seen as a regulatory indicator; Hong Kong legislators reaffirmed the Web3 hub positioning and introduced regulatory progress such as stablecoin regulations; the event also included closed-door institutional meetings with participation from traditional financial institutions like Barclays and Société Générale. These developments undoubtedly boosted market confidence in Asia’s crypto ecosystem.
However, the core force driving the price back to 80,000 came more from macro capital flows—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow exceeding $2.6 billion over the past eight trading days, showing a clear rebound in institutional allocation demand; Nvidia’s earnings outlook lifted tech stocks, broadly improving risk appetite; Coinbase’s premium over Binance, a rare occurrence, also indicated the return of U.S. institutional funds.
Therefore, the Hong Kong conference played the role of an “emotional catalyst,” providing narrative support for the market, but the real upward momentum came from the substantial return of institutional capital and improved macro risk appetite. Whether $BTC can hold above 80,000 still depends on the sustainability of active buying going forward. $BTC
Core PCE year-on-year at 3.3% remains steady, inflation sticky, consumption stalled. The Jackson Hole debut by Powell likely offers little guidance, reiterating 2%. For BTC, the speech itself matters less than how the market prices it: if hawkish, 80,000 is easy to give back; if moderate, short-term breathing room remains. Don't bet on a single phrase, watch how US bonds and the dollar move.#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Core PCE remained flat in July, inflation hasn't come down, directly dashing some aggressive easing hopes. Tonight's Jackson Hole speech is a short-term anchor, most likely without clear rate guidance, passing the ball to subsequent data.
Crypto: Risk assets are extremely sensitive to rate expectations, neutral → range-bound; hawkish → quick pullback; only clear dovish signals will trigger a rebound. Event-driven market, position control is essential, don't go all in.
👉Conclusion: Probability of a rate hike in September decreases, but expectations for a rate cut continue to be delayed.
Crypto market forecast: BTC enters a macro-driven high volatility window, neutral speech maintains range-bound; once hawkish tone is released, high Beta coins will face amplified pullback pressure, making it difficult to have a one-sided big move in the short term, mainly event-driven trading.Today, the biggest positive for BTC remains that the money hasn't left: BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for 8 consecutive full trading days, totaling about $2.8 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT absorbing about $200 million again on August 26; ETH ETFs also maintain strong inflows. Therefore, the medium-term trend is still bullish. However, at 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Kevin Warsh will speak at Jackson Hole, while PCE remains high at 3.7%, US Treasury yields are rising again, and oil prices have rebounded by 2%, making tonight the biggest single event risk window in the past week. Core trend positions can continue to be held with the trend, but betting on direction with high leverage tonight is not advisable; what really needs to be watched is whether BTC can hold above 80K–82K after Warsh's speech, and whether IBIT completes its 9th consecutive day of net inflows.Bitcoin is currently trading at $78,353.62, down 1.20% in the past 24 hours. After a weekly gain of 21.82%, the market has seen profit-taking, putting Bitcoin's price to the test at the $80,000 resistance level. Bitcoin's weekly correlation with gold reached 94.37%, indicating that both were influenced by similar macroeconomic factors during the rise. Although ETF inflows and lower yields supported demand, correlation alone does not prove that gold directly drove Bitcoin's rise. Currently, the market needs spot buyers to absorb the coins released by profit-taking holders $BTC $CL 聪明钱空头意图突然放大。 一个过去 30 天盈利约 279k USD、最大回撤约 1.7% 的低回撤钱包，目前持有约 48k USD 的 $CL 空头，同时挂出约 350k USD 的新增卖单阶梯。卖单规模约为现有空仓的 7 倍。 这还不是成交，随时可能撤单，但它清楚显示该钱包正在等待更高位置继续加空。$CL 当前日成交量约 183m USD，价差约 0.12 bps，流动性足以让这组挂单值得跟踪。Let's talk about something practical today, don't get misled by the hype of a “full bull market” — just focus on two key lines: one is the bull-bear dividing line, and the other is Trump's position radar. This is the third time since this bear market that BTC has hit the average cost line of short-term holders. The STH-RP indicator is considered by many analysts in the community as the bull-bear dividing line. The logic is simple: once the price reaches the breakeven line, short-term holders who can't hold on will panic and run, so in a bear market it's always “falling back near the cost line, then retreating again,” repeatedly wearing people down. What everyone cares about most now is: is this the start of a bull market, or just a bear market rebound? If you think it's the start of a bull, press 1; if you think it's a bear, press 2. Every time the price stands above the STH-RP, it must be taken seriously — no one can say for sure if this time is the signal to say goodbye to the bear market for good. Previously, I mentioned that you can start building positions in batches around the 60,000 range. According to the four-year cycle, October is when the next round officially begins. Recently, the most talked-about topics in the market are institutional entry, legislative progress, and the trends of gold and BTC — essentially all revolving around U.S. Treasury bonds. My own observation is: from a time perspective, we are still in a bear market rebound cycle, but looking at various indicators, it does have the flavor of an early bull market. No matter how you look at it, the area around 60,000 is definitely the bottom region, and this big direction is beyond doubt. Recently on-chain data shows many whales have started taking profits on long positions around 80,000, gradually closing positions, and even opening shorts. If it really is a bull market, there will be plenty of opportunities to buy on dips — patience is more important than anything at this stage $SOL This round is indeed the strongest among mainstream altcoins, and it's not driven solely by the broader market, but by several catalysts stacked together. Recently, SOL climbed back above $100, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 10% at one point, and its cumulative gain in August has approached 44%. 1. Governance vote: The market is trading "supply contraction" Solana is advancing important governance proposals. Simply put, one direction is "issue less SOL," and the other is "burn more SOL." So the current trading logic is straightforward: less new supply, increased burn = reduced future SOL supply pressure. This directly affects market expectations of SOL's scarcity. 2. Listed companies are still buying SOL. DeFi Development Corp recently bought about 19,000 SOL, bringing total holdings to about 2.33 million SOL and equivalent assets. This indicates that SOL is gradually emerging in a narrative similar to BTC's "corporate reserve assets." Previously, when listed companies hoarded coins, the first reaction was BTC, but now some companies are actively allocating SOL. 3. Schwab begins bringing SOL into traditional financial channels Charles Schwab announced that in the coming months, he will add spot trading of SOL, AVAX, and LINK on his Crypto platform. Schwab has over $12 trillion in client assets and about 39 million active brokerage accounts, making this channel highly significant. BriefCZ’s view that $BTC could eventually become more important than gold is worth discussing — but I don’t think this is a short-term rotation story. Gold has centuries of monetary history behind it. For major economies, especially in the East, shifting reserves and financial trust toward BTC would take a very long time. So I’m not focused on BTC flipping gold’s entire market cap. If BTC eventually reaches even 20% of gold’s market cap, I’d consider that a massive structural success. And honestly, 1. Probability of Increase: The probability of winning in the evening is significantly higher than in the early morning to morning period. High win rate ranges: 18 points (60%) and 19 points (59%) are the two periods with the highest probability of rising throughout the day, followed closely by 7 o'clock, 13 o'clock, and 22:00 at 56%, showing an overall pattern of "higher win rates during the evening session." Low win rate range: The probability of rising at 6 and 10 points is only 40%, while 1 point (44%) and 0 / 15 points (45%) are also low. The early morning to morning period has significantly weaker upward certainty. 2. Average Gains: Clear break-even gains, with high-return gains concentrated between 4-5 a.m. and 11 p.m. High-return periods: 23 points (53.85), 5 points (53.81), and 4 points (53.30) lead the day, but the probability of rising in these three periods is only 49%-52%, making them high break-even periods with low win rates but large single gains. High loss periods: 21 points (-62.84), 6 points (-40.58), and 2 points (-34.83) have the deepest average declines. Among them, 21 points is the only period with an annualized decline exceeding 60%, with a rising probability of only 48%, indicating weak win rate and profit-loss ratio. Note: Although 18 points has the highest probability of rising all day, the average increase is -5.62, indicating there are many rises during this period, but the declines are more pronounced, dragging down the overall average return. 3. Average volatility: The most intense swings are at 1 AM, and 2 in the eveningThe next phase of AI may not be about being smarter, but about being more profitable.
As the current AI market cycle progresses, the focus of the market is shifting. In the past, people cared more about model parameters, computing power scale, and financing amounts. Now, a more practical question is being asked: Can AI continuously generate revenue and profit?
Companies in the AI industry chain like NVIDIA still show strong performance, but the capital market is no longer satisfied with the answer "AI demand is huge." As AI infrastructure investment increases, investors are starting to focus on whether these investments can ultimately translate into real commercial returns.
This also offers insights for Crypto. In sectors like AI Agent, DePIN, and decentralized computing power, the narrative and future imagination dominated before. Next, they may enter a similar phase: How much are users actually using? How much revenue is generated? Does the product truly solve problems?
I believe the next stage of competition in AI × Web3 will not necessarily be about who has the bigger story, but who can truly turn AI capabilities into sustainable products and cash flow. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
Tonight's debut at Jackson Hole will decide life or death: BTC hanging on the $80k threshold: Hawkish signals sound, will bulls exit?
At 10 PM tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will make his Jackson Hole debut, with the market holding its breath. The backdrop is high inflation, bond market turmoil, and damaged Fed credibility; Wash urgently needs to repair guidance.
Currently, US stocks, BTC (breaking $80,000), ETH, and SOL are surging. The core drivers are the "AI boom + ETF inflows + risk appetite recovery" logic, not expectations of Wash turning dovish.
What key points need attention?
1) How Wash characterizes the recent surge in long-term bond yields—whether it is "desirable tightening" or "risk premium" will set the tone;
2) Whether he clarifies the inflation response mechanism and the optionality of rate hikes;
3) If he remains ambiguous again, market "punishment" will intensify.
Signal judgment: The market is unprepared for hawkishness, with only 7% expecting dovishness. Wash is likely neutral to hawkish, emphasizing unchanged inflation targets but may disappoint the market by withholding guidance.
How should BTC, ETH, and SOL be traded?
BTC: Currently facing strong resistance in the 80k-80.4k range with an 8% supply concentration. If the speech is hawkish or ambiguous, short at 8.05k-8.15k, target 7.85k, stop loss 8.25k; if unexpectedly dovish, a break above 8.2k can be chased long.
SOL/ETH: SOL is catching up but faces heavy resistance at $110. Short SOL at 109-110, target 102, $BTC Bitcoin touched 80,000 but failed to hold, then hovered near the critical level again.
K33 Research says this wave is the "largest single-day short squeeze on record" — last week shorts were liquidated by 7.2 billion, and most of the price increase was driven by short covering, not by everyone rushing to buy. Futures open interest is also declining, so the short squeeze momentum has basically dissipated.
The good news is that ETFs are indeed flowing in with real money. Last week saw a net inflow of 1.92 billion, the strongest single-week inflow in nearly 10 months, with 8 consecutive days of net buying. August has accumulated over 3 billion USD in inflows. The problem is that the higher the price goes, the heavier the profit-taking — short-term holders have transferred over 40,000 $BTC to exchanges after breaking even, marking the largest profit-taking scale this year.
There is another variable today: $6.44 billion worth of BTC options expire on Deribit, with the most concentrated open interest around the 75K and 80K strike prices. Market makers will need to adjust positions, which could amplify short-term volatility.
The short squeeze momentum has passed; whether it can hold now depends on whether ETF and spot buying can absorb the profit-taking at high levels. If they can, the trend will recover; if not, the phase rebound will end. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 XRP's "treasury company" Evernorth is going public — Ripple has finally brought the "institutional finance" narrative to the Nasdaq stage.
This "treasury company + SPAC" structural design is very clever: it bypasses the complexity of a direct IPO while adding a layer of "compliance premium" narrative to XRP. From being a rebel against Swift to becoming an on-chain tool for traditional finance, Ripple's repositioning is very clear.
But there is a fundamental question unresolved: do institutions really need XRP for cross-border payments? Or do they just need the blockchain concept? The financial disclosures after going public will provide the answer — whether it's genuine demand or just narrative premium.#Large Inflows into Gold ETFs, How Will Safe-Haven Funds Reallocate?
The strong inflows into gold ETFs signal that capital is seriously starting to "de-dollarize" its allocation!
Last week, global physical $XAU gold ETFs saw net inflows of $6.38 billion and 46.7 tons, hitting a nearly 10-month high; spot gold briefly surged to $4696, indicating this is no longer just retail investors seeking safety.
More importantly, $BTC is also attracting funds: over the past 7 trading days, spot BTC ETFs had net inflows of about $2.5 billion, while BTC briefly broke above $80,000 during the same period. The simultaneous inflows into gold and BTC show that the market's trading focus has shifted from "rate cuts" to concerns over the US dollar's credit, fiscal deficits, and non-sovereign assets.
However, gold is clearly more crowded in the short term, with futures momentum funds having already front-run after gold rose near $4700; BTC, on the other hand, continues to see ongoing capital inflows. I am more bullish on BTC, followed by gold. It's worth watching now, but don't chase near $80,000—wait for continued ETF inflows to confirm, as BTC's risk-reward ratio looks better.@多多不梭哈 In this case centered around Mywell Technology's financial report, the most worthwhile conclusion is not a fleeting rise or fall, but that "solid earnings" and "stock price must rise" are never the same thing. When the market has already traded for strong expectations, data only slightly exceeds consensus, and the call does not provide sufficiently aggressive long-term guidance, funds may still choose to cash out. What you really need to guard against in event trading is the mismatch in expectations, and simultaneous loss of liquidity and positions. At the start of the livestream, Mywell's financial report had not yet been released. Duoduo did not finalize the direction ahead of time, but waited for the numbers and management's call. He expected sharp fluctuations after the news was realized, so even if he participated, he should prioritize small positions, clear stop-losses, and quick verification. Heavily betting on the side before the earnings report seemed like a big market move, but in reality, he left all uncontrollable gaps, slippages, and information delays to himself. After financial reports gradually emerged, he believed the results themselves were not bad. During the call, it was mentioned that full-year revenue is expected to be about $12 billion, higher than the previous level of about $11.5 billion; The data center business continues to grow rapidly, with gross margin and adjusted profit margins remaining in high ranges. AI data centers, custom chips, optical interconnects, and other business areas continue to provide growth narratives. These details are enough to show that the company's fundamentals have not suddenly deteriorated. However, price performance has not simply followed the "good news." Duoduo's judgment is that the market has already had high expectations for the AI infrastructure chain, and investors are looking not only at the quarterly figures, but also on whether the company can continue to significantly raise its future growth slope. The call was head-onThe most important security promise of hardware wallets is to display transactions pending signing on a separate screen, allowing users to confirm the payment address, amount, and type of operation. On August 27, OneKey's security team disclosed that they had reproduced the transaction replacement issue from the older Ledger Ethereum application version 1.22.1 in the lab: when a device was displaying transaction A, the malicious host could use race conditions to rewrite the underlying signature buffer, causing the device to finally sign transaction B. This does not mean the private key is exported, nor does it mean attackers can control the device remotely only. According to Ledger, attackers first control communication between hardware wallets and hosts, such as sending commands via malware, tampered wallet programs, or malicious websites. What truly breaks the vulnerability is another security boundary: data confirmed by users on the screen must be consistent with the data that last entered the signature algorithm. The controversy centers on how the disclosure method is used, not whether the vulnerability exists. OneKey used an older version to replicate the device; Ledger stated that the issue was discovered through internal security processes. The Ethereum application 1.22.2, released on August 13, has added protection, and on August 21, the underlying issue was fixed in Secure SDK 26.6.1. Ledger currently recommends upgrading to Ethereum app 1.22.3 or higher, and says no evidence of exploitation in real-world environments has been found. For users, the right move is not panic transfers, nor is it clicking Mo$BTC
BTC has risen above $80,000, rebounding over 25% from $62,000 this month. The main reasons are ETF inflows and a weakening dollar. It is still about 36% below last year's high. Tonight's speech by Walsh is a short-term catalyst. Whether the $80,000 level can hold depends on policy signals; there is resistance at $81,000 above, and caution is needed if it pulls back to $78,000.OKTA and CRWD have been re-priced by the market for cybersecurity this time!
$CRWD Q2 revenue was $1.47 billion, up 26% year-over-year, with a record net new ARR of $333 million. The company also raised its FY27 net new ARR growth guidance directly to 34%; the stock price then surged about 19%.
$xOKTA was even more impressive, with revenue of $805 million, up 11% year-over-year, EPS of $1.05, all exceeding expectations, RPO growth of 17%, and the stock price surged over 28% intraday.
Did the market price in this in advance? Yes, but obviously not enough. OKTA had already risen about 50% this year before the earnings report, yet it still rallied nearly 30% more; CRWD was also widely expected to beat, but the actual net new ARR and guidance continued to accelerate, indicating that the capital is truly buying into the new wave of identity and endpoint security demand driven by AI Agents.
Most optimistic on CRWD. Its growth rate, ARR quality, and AI security positioning are all stronger than OKTA. Not suitable to chase after the short-term surge, but CRWD after a pullback is worth close attention.$BTC The current market trading sentiment is too FOMO.
I am currently bullish, but if it continues to rise now, it will be difficult to form a healthy bull market.
1. The rise from a low position was too sudden. In the days before the rise, the price consolidated around 63000 for several days, accumulating a large number of long positions. The price increase has already given those leveraged longs in that range several to dozens of times returns, and there are currently too many floating profitable positions.
2. The rise has been strong all the way, without deep shakeouts or chip turnover. Any incoming funds could become the bag holders.
Now, trading must be rational.
Don't let the market control your emotions and recklessly open positions out of FOMO.
Don't forget the shadow cast by the big drop two months ago.
For the market to improve, real capital inflow is needed.
Positions like micro-strategies, which buy and hold long-term, are the real positive factor.
Don't be disturbed by spot ETF inflows; most ETFs are short-term speculative funds.
They are institutionally raised funds managed collectively for trading.
ETF buying and selling happens almost daily.
Don't forget that the last drop from 82000 to 57000 was caused by ETFs selling at any cost.
So at best, they are a large short-term trade, with risks far greater than whales.
If you have channels to monitor ETF spot fund dynamics, keep a close eye.
There is no market that only rises without falling. If you go long now, be prepared mentally for a deep correction.
My advice remains: manage your positions well and control risk.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 StarkWare's latest experiment may not be immediately noteworthy for whether it can become Bitcoin's ultimate quantum defense solution, but rather because it validates a different upgrade approach.
Recent experiments show that without changing Bitcoin's consensus rules, an additional hash-based security mechanism can add a layer of quantum attack protection for specific funds. The test scale was not large, involving about 8,000 sats, but the significance lies in the fact that Bitcoin may not need to wait for a full network consensus upgrade to start building a "transitional defense line" for some high-value assets.
Of course, practical limitations remain obvious. The entire process may require several hours of computation, with a single cost roughly between 120–180 USD, and the experimental transactions need to enter blocks through a special miner submission path rather than the standard propagation process familiar to ordinary users.
Therefore, I tend to understand it as a backup solution for high-value, low-frequency scenarios: if future technology can further standardize, reduce computational costs, and lessen dependence on special miner coordination, it might be more suitable for institutional custody, long-term reserves, and other funds that can accept slower execution speeds.
But it is important to emphasize that this does not mean Bitcoin has achieved comprehensive quantum security. It is more like an important technical validation and also indicates that before an official protocol-level upgrade arrives, Bitcoin may have some feasible "emergency channels." What a hardware wallet displays does not equal what it has authorized by signature
Ledger Donjon announced on August 27: In certain transaction lists, the affected Ethereum app may only review one operation, but the signature authorizes the entire transaction. The issue is not just whether the private key leaves the device, but also whether the device's display fully corresponds to the final authorization.
This does not mean all transactions carry the same risk. The announcement's premises include an infected host, specific clear-signing descriptors; also no compromised production front-end, no public network transactions, and no real fund movements.
It is worth noting: multisig raises the signature threshold but cannot automatically fix multiple devices making the same parsing error on the same transaction. Independent confirmation requires each confirmation to fully see the content to be signed.
The announcement states the fix is in Ethereum app 1.22.3 and recommends verifying the app version on signing devices. Decrypt also advises that both the app and firmware need separate updates. Today's focus is not panic but verifying versions, device displays, and host interfaces.
Position disclosure: This article is published by the CoWallet operator for industry information only and does not constitute investment advice.
#AI #Web3 #MPC #hardwarewallet #Ethereum StarkWare's experiment matters less as a finished defense than as a test of Bitcoin's upgrade path. Moving 10K sats behind an added hash-based backup lock, without changing the protocol, shows that protection for selected funds may be possible before network-wide consensus forms.
The constraint is operational: hours per use, roughly $150-$200 in cost, and miner coordination make this unsuitable for ordinary wallets today. My read is that the nearer-term fit, if the process can be standardized, is high-value custody where slow execution is acceptable. It is a useful hedge, not proof that Bitcoin is quantum-safe. Not advice, just analysis.
#StarkWareQuantumBTCSOL rose to 109, BTC sideways at 80,000: Has capital started to chase high Beta first?
My clearest observation from watching the market today is: money hasn't fully returned to the market, it's just first going to the easiest places to rally.
$BTC 80456, up only 0.19%, sideways above 80,000, resistance remains at 81,000–83,000; 78,000 holds, structure not broken yet.
$ETH 2513.81, actually down 0.31%. 2,500 temporarily held, but 2,515 and 2,550 not reclaimed, so ETH hasn't regained control. If it falls back to 2,490, look first to 2,450 below.
$SOL 109.34, up 2.02%, clearly leading. Trend above 100 not broken, but chasing longs near 110, risk-reward ratio is no longer comfortable.
$SNDK still weak, AI earnings are hot, but storage hasn't followed, indicating capital prefers buying high Beta, not broadly buying risk assets.
About $6.44 billion in BTC options expire today, with the Jackson Hole speech tonight, 80,000 area likely to continue fluctuating. If BTC holds 80,000 and ETH retakes 2,520, SOL's move looks like capital diffusion; if BTC falls back to 79,000 and ETH breaks 2,490, SOL's strength may be just the last push.
My judgment: this is not a full bull market yet, capital is first chasing elasticity.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 #US Core PCE Holds Steady from Last Month, How Will the Jackson Hole Speech Set the Tone?
80,000 is holding steady, no one dares to move before the Fed speech
The market has indeed stood above 80,000, $BTC current price is 80,462, with a 24-hour high of 80,850 and a low of 78,552, overall hovering around 80,000.
Yesterday's PCE data came out, core at 3.3%, as expected, neither exceeding nor falling short of expectations, so the market had little reaction. The reason for holding steady at 80,000 is simple — after a big rise, chips need to be digested; 80,000 is a psychological barrier upwards, and there is still support below.
Tonight is the Jackson Hole Symposium, and Fed Chair Powell will speak; everyone is waiting. Since taking office, he has been very reserved with words. The July press conference was unclear, causing US Treasury yields to surge to the highest since 2007. If this time he clarifies the framework, the market may choose a direction; if still vague, expect more grinding. $BTC BTC is currently trading at $79,950–80,200 (Asian session on 8/28, just back above the 80K threshold). Yesterday, 6.44 billion in options (81,700 contracts) hedging just finished unloading at 08:00 UTC. The real bomb tonight is Wash's Jackson Hole debut at 22:00 Beijing time (10:00 EDT).
Options expiration is a "mechanical pressure release," while Wash's speech is a "macro tone-setting" event—these two combined determine BTC's direction, not the current price action, but the 15 minutes at 22:00.
Current situation (frozen at 8/28 morning session):
Price: oscillating around $79,950 ± 200, 80K is a psychological barrier + 80K Call concentrated strike price (1.57 billion nominal)
After options settlement: Max Pain around 78K, price at 79.9K above pain point, out-of-the-money Calls expire, market makers unload selling pressure, volatility energy has been partially released
ETF base: net inflow for 8 consecutive days, totaling about $2.8 billion, with $232 million on 8/27 alone, supporting the 80K floor
Macro prelude: July PCE at 3.7% is slightly hot, Q2 GDP at 1.5%, 18 days until 9/16 FOMC, CME shows 38.4% chance of a September rate hike, 61.6% chance of no change
Sentiment: Fear & Greed index at 71 (Greed), not bottom panic but event front-running, prone to "sell the fact"
Wash's three scenarios (BTC corresponding paths):
① Dovish framework (emphasizing soft employment, supply-side inflation, no explicit rate hike mention) — probability about 35%
Market reads as "no urgency," long-term US bonds down, dollar soft, ETF continues to absorb
BTC: breaks 81,085 (50-week EMA) → target 83K–86K, ETH follows breaking 2,550 confirming rotation
Action: light position follow if 79K holds, stop loss at 77K
② Strategic ambiguity (reaffirm 2% target, no forward guidance, discuss financial innovation/stablecoins) — probability about 40%
Wash's style is "subtraction, deleting guidance," most likely scenario
BTC: oscillate around 80K ±3% until September PCE, range 75K–81K continues weaving
Action: no chase, wait for close, high sell low buy within range
③ Hawkish surprise (signals "rate hikes still on the table" / insists on Higher for Longer) — probability about 25%
8/26 PCE at 3.7% gives him ammo; if more hawkish = risk asset repricing
BTC: breaks 79K → 77K (strong support) → if breaks, target 75–76K (75K Call concentration zone), weekly break below 74K targets 68–70K
Action: reduce position, wait for 75K to see if ETF absorbs
The key is not "what he says," but "how the market interprets it."
Since Wash took office, he cut statements and removed dot plots; one sentence can be interpreted three ways. Initial spikes or dumps are often fake moves; the 4-hour close is what counts.
Three-tier operation (for tonight only):
Before 22:00: 79.5–80.5K no betting on breakout, options volatility already released, keep cash and wait for speech
Dovish close above 81,085: go long targeting 83–85K, stop loss 79,800
Hawkish break below 79K with hourly close not recovered: reduce to 50% position, target 77→75.5K for phased buying
Ambiguous sideways: no chase above 79K, no sell below 77K, sideways until 9/16 FOMC
Hidden line reminder (easily overlooked):
This year's JH theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," the first time stablecoins/payment innovation are central.
If Wash mentions "private stablecoins better than CBDCs" or "GENIUS Act framework is acceptable" = structural positive for crypto but not equal to liquidity easing; if he mentions "Fed expanding regulatory power over stablecoin issuers" = short-term bearish. This hidden line affects ETH/stablecoin chains more than interest rate wording; BTC is affected indirectly by liquidity expectations.
Where Bitcoin goes, no answer today, wait for 22:00.
Options decide "volatile bullish pressure," Wash decides "where it goes after the shakeout"; this 80K spike is just the opening silence. $BTC Woke up to find $BTC closing above 80,000 on the daily chart, firmly holding its ground.
But I feel the risk is getting higher and higher, so absolutely do not chase blindly. I've even started reducing positions to take profits because BTC's volatility will explode today.
1. ETF demand is higher than expected. The net inflow suddenly dropped to 5.8 million the day before yesterday, but that was just a single-day fluctuation; it quickly rebounded yesterday to 2 billion.
2. Another reason is that the bulls have a consensus on short squeezes, so when the shorts accumulated more than the bulls yesterday, the bulls launched another wave.
3. 80,000 is very likely to become a short-term support level. Once the daily close is above this psychological level and the pullback doesn't break it, the breakout is confirmed valid, and the support base shifts upward.
4. But 83,000 and 86,000 are heavy resistance lines. One is the 50-week moving average, the other is the upper edge of a heavy chip concentration zone. I’m not optimistic about breaking through, so I’m taking profits by reducing positions first.
5. Volatility will explode today because two major events coincide: about 6.4 billion in BTC options expiring (betting on $82k–100k) + the Jackson Hole central bank symposium (Fed Chair Warsh’s speech).Why? Because liquidity has no increment, only stock mutual cutting.
Previously, money was flooded out from the Federal Reserve into the crypto circle, everything rose. Now? Macroscopically, no certainty of massive flooding is seen; ETF funds are structural, not evenly distributed. The hotspots you see—AI agent, RWA, DePIN—are essentially stock funds looking for the next story to tell. Once the story is told, people run, and the coin crashes. If you run slower, you become the cost of that story.
More cruelly, many project teams themselves understand: rather than seriously making products and waiting for a bull market, it's better to just issue a coin, control the market, cooperate with KOLs to shout a few times, and end the battle in three months. You think you are investing, but actually you are providing exit liquidity for others.
So in this cycle, many people's real feeling is: BTC hasn't dropped much, but accounts have shrunk; there are many hotspots, but none were caught; obviously working hard, but the harder you work, the more you lose. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $SOL $ETH $BTC