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BTC must closely watch the 50-week moving average as this is a critical level.
In 2018, BTC rebounded near the 50-week moving average but failed to hold above it.
Subsequently, it directly entered a new round of deep decline.
The 2022 market behaved similarly.
When it surged to this level, it was immediately strongly suppressed and pushed down.
Afterwards, it entered another downtrend.
The current key range corresponds to around 81,000 to 82,000.
If it can effectively hold above this level, the overall trend structure will directly reverse.
The bulls will have much smoother operational space going forward.
If it consistently fails to hold above,
the likely scenario is a frustrating oscillating market with repeated surges and pullbacks.$BTC $80K. Now What?
After three long months, Bitcoin has finally kissed $80,000 again.
ETFs have been on a buying spree — eight straight days, $2.6 billion poured in. Trump's pushing crypto legislation. The usual story: when the U.S. moves, the price follows.
But don't pop the champagne just yet. Between $80K and $82K sits a mountain of supply — bag holders waiting to break even and bail. Add to that $6.4 billion in options expiring todayAfter surging to $81,500, $BTC returned to around $80,000, still up about 1.55% in 24 hours; $ETH hovered around $2,500, basically flat for 24 hours. The current market has not fully entered the risk appetite diffusion phase, with funds still more concentrated in $BTC. At 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Meanwhile, the U.S. will release preliminary estimates for the revision of employment benchmarks. Both events will occur within the same window and may directly affect market expectations for Fed policy, dollar liquidity, and the September policy meeting. For the crypto market, the special aspect of this Jackson Hole is not just interest rate policy. This year's conference theme is "Financial Innovation: Impact on Payments and Policy," with discussions directly covering digital payments, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and new financial infrastructure. This means the market needs to watch two lines tonight: one is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, and the other is how the Fed views the integration of crypto with traditional financial systems. ## 1. Why is Jackson Hole worth paying close attention to? The Jackson Hole annual meeting is not a regular policy meeting and will not directly announce rate hikes or cuts, but the Fed chair often uses this occasion to outline medium- and long-term policy directions. The market is currently in a sensitive phase: U.S. employment data is starting to weaken, but inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared. The Fed needs to balance stabilizing prices, maintaining employment, and preventing a rapid economic cooldown$BTC
Big moves tonight!!!!
At 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The latest core PCE remains above the 2% target, initial jobless claims have dropped to 203,000, showing persistent inflation alongside stable employment; officials like Schmidt and Hamarak have also emphasized inflation risks before the meeting, further intensifying internal Fed disagreements over rate hikes. The market's focus is not on whether Wash will directly preview September actions, but on whether he can explain how inflation, employment, and financial conditions trigger policy adjustments and clarify the boundaries between the Fed and the Treasury on long-term interest rates. If the speech continues to downplay forward guidance and lacks a clear policy response framework, the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and BTC may face greater expected volatility.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
📉 Walsh's debut at Jackson Hole: a steadying anchor or a volatility trigger?
Tonight at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will take the stage at Jackson Hole. This is not only his inaugural appearance since taking office but could also be a "stress test" for global assets—especially amid the current set of conflicting signals:
· Persistent inflation: Core PCE remains above the 2% target;
· Strong employment: Initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 203,000;
· Internal divisions: Officials like Schmidt and Hamarak continue to hawk before the meeting.
The market no longer expects Walsh to directly preview a September rate hike; the real key is whether he can clarify three things:
1. Which factor— inflation, employment, or financial conditions—will actually trigger a policy shift?
2. How exactly will the Fed and Treasury define boundaries on long-term interest rates?
3. If forward guidance remains vague, what should the market use as an "anchor"?
If the speech still lacks a clear response framework, the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and even BTC could all face a wide range of sentiment-driven volatility.
At 20:30 tonight, July's PCE data will also "preheat" the market; with these two variables overlapping, volatility is unlikely to be low.
Are you more worried that Walsh will hawkishly break risk assets, or dovishly ease tightening anxieties? As of now, $BTC is around $80K, up about 1.4% in 24 hours, and up about +2% over 7 days; ETH is trading around $2,490–2,510, mostly sideways in the short term, but still up about 30% over the past 30 days. XRP is around $1.43–1.46, up about 10% over the past 7 days. So today's market isn't as exciting as yesterday, but I actually think it's more worth watching. Because BTC has now been fighting for $80K continuously, the question has shifted from: "Can it break through $80K?" To: "Can $80K actually become support?" If today's Asian session can stay near $80K, or even pull back to $79K–80K, and funds will immediately take over, I would interpret it as normal turnover after a breakout, not a rally and pullback. More importantly, ETH hasn't crashed. Although ETH hasn't surged wildly with BTC now, it still holds around $2,500. What's more noteworthy is that today, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about 1,132 BTC, while the ETH ETF saw a net inflow of about 3,947 ETH. This signal is actually quite interesting: BTC funds are starting to take profits, but ETH funds are still buying up. If this trend continues, I'll pay more attention to ETH's strength relative to BTC. Then there's SOL. Recently, SOL has returned to around $100, and market funds have started to pay clear attention to high-beta assets outside of BTC. Some market analysts believe that recently, capital#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
I believe that at 22:00 tonight, Wash's debut at Jackson Hole will most likely not provide a specific timeline for rate hikes. However, if he fails to clearly explain the "specific boundary conditions triggering policy adjustments," the market will face a panic-driven liquidity repricing, with gold, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC taking the initial hit tonight.
The core conflict lies in the "data contradictions" and "Fed internal divisions." The latest data shows that core PCE remains above the 2% target, indicating strong inflation stickiness; yet initial jobless claims have dropped to 203,000, showing employment remains robust.
22:00 tonight is a critical point. Currently, spot gold is consolidating at a high level between $4580-$4600, and BTC is also poised at a sensitive position.
For tonight's trading, it is recommended to reduce long positions in gold and BTC to within 30% before 21:30 to lock in profits. Avoid betting on direction in the half hour immediately after the 22:00-22:30 speech. If Wash's speech remains vague, discussing only macro issues without specific inflation tolerance, the dollar will likely plunge after 22:30, and gold and BTC may experience a rapid surge. That will be the window for short-term long entries or right-side breakouts.
Tonight, focus not on predictions but on boundaries. Whether Wash can draw a red line between inflation and the Treasury Secretary's rate stance will determine if tonight sees narrow volatility or a violent shakeout. Prepare your ammunition and watch quietly.
@OKX星球 #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配
Large Inflows into Gold ETFs! A Crossroads for Risk-Averse Capital Reallocation
After spot gold surged close to $4700, the market entered a phase of high-level consolidation.
Data shows that globally, physically-backed gold ETFs saw a net inflow of about $6.38 billion last week, marking the largest single-week capital inflow in nearly ten months, as risk-averse funds accelerate their move into the gold sector.
Citigroup analysis points out that much of the recent gold price rise is driven by futures speculative funds, while physical consumption demand in Asia has not kept pace. This means the current gold price is influenced by both institutional long-term allocations and short-term speculative momentum, increasing the risk of high-level volatility.
Interestingly, current capital allocation is no longer limited to traditional safe-haven assets. Bitcoin remains firmly positioned at the high point of this rebound, with both gold ETFs and Bitcoin spot ETFs becoming the main targets of market funds.
Although both gold and Bitcoin can absorb market concerns about US dollar credit and fiscal risks, their underlying driving logics are completely different.
Gold price trends are more influenced by real interest rates, global risk sentiment, and long-term central bank allocations, leaning towards defensive value preservation; whereas Bitcoin is more sensitive to market liquidity, ETF buying strength, and changes in leveraged funds, exhibiting higher elasticity and greater volatility.80,000 has held again, but now is not a buying point, it's a profit-taking zone! 🔥
BTC today returned to $80,200, the 80,000 level has been crossed back and forth 4 times in 8 days, today is the third time it has stood above it again—a typical failed breakout with repeated topping.
Three signals tell you to reduce positions rather than enter:
① Buying momentum is slowing down. ETF net inflows have continued for 9 days, but the initial value on 8/27 was only +$42.6 million, halving twice from the peak single-day $300 million+. The fuel for the short squeeze is running out.
② Long liquidations have replaced short squeezes. On 8/26, long liquidations hit $270 million in a single day, a mirror image of the short squeeze bloodbath at the beginning of the month—the market makers are offloading to those chasing highs.
③ Tonight is a do-or-die moment. At 22:00, Warsh's Jackson Hole debut, a hawkish comment could turn 80,000 into a ceiling; combined with $817 million options expiry, volatility is about to explode.
Key levels: 81,160 is this week's high (failure to break = bull trap), 82,000-83,000 is the bull-bear dividing line, only breaking above qualifies for buying talk; below 77,800-78,000 watch for the 75,500 trend lifeline.
Conclusion: Above 80,000, only do one thing—take profits and lock in gains, reduce positions in batches, absolutely no new longs. If you really want to buy, wait for a volume breakout daily close above 81,250 + no break below 80,000 the next day, then the right side is alive. Tonight's macro + options double whammy, holding spot overnight is gambling. Missing out doesn't lose money, chasing the top resets to zero.🩸#BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies the key battle
$BTC broke through $80,000 and then pulled back, no need to be too anxious or excited here.
The previous rally had a clear short squeeze component, with shorts covering providing strong price momentum, and futures open interest also declined accordingly. What really matters now is not whether it can continue to surge, but whether spot funds can continue to take over after the short squeeze ends.
Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92 billion, which is a relatively positive signal, indicating that incremental funds are indeed entering the market. But at these high prices, the profit-taking pressure from earlier holders will become increasingly obvious.
Today, about $6.4 billion worth of BTC options expire simultaneously, so there is a high probability of significant short-term volatility, including possible spikes both up and down.
$80,000 is the current watershed.
If BTC can hold steady on a pullback to $80,000, and ETFs continue to see net inflows, then this rally has a chance to evolve from a short squeeze rebound into a genuine trend recovery.
But if $80,000 fails to hold for long, ETF inflows weaken, and selling pressure at high levels keeps increasing, I would be more cautious.
Now, instead of judging bull or bear by a single candlestick, the key is whether, after shorts are cleared out, there is real money willing to buy above $80,000. This is the key to whether the market can continue to rise.
A reminder: if you have short positions around $80,000, don't overleverage.
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice!#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配
Recently, looking at capital flow data, there's a phenomenon worth discussing with everyone 🤔
Spot gold approached $4700 and then entered a high-level consolidation phase. Last week, physical gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $6.38 billion, marking the largest single-week inflow in nearly ten months, with institutional funds pouring heavily into gold.
However, a reminder from Citibank left a deep impression on me: this wave of rising gold prices is largely driven by futures funds, and Asian physical consumption hasn't kept pace with the market. In other words, the current gold price is pushed up by institutional allocations plus short-term hot money, not fully supported by real physical demand, which is a risk that cannot be ignored.
An interesting point is that funds are betting on two fronts. Not only are gold ETFs aggressively attracting capital, but BTC is also maintaining its high level in this rebound, with BTC spot ETFs continuously attracting funds.
Both can be used to hedge against concerns about a weakening dollar and fiscal credit, but the underlying driving logic is completely different.
Gold's trend is more influenced by actual interest rate changes, global risk aversion sentiment, and ongoing central bank gold purchases, leaning towards defensive attributes.
In contrast, BTC is more sensitive to market liquidity, ETF buying strength, and the inflow and outflow of leveraged funds, showing high elasticity and sharp pullbacks.
Going forward, I will closely monitor the capital movements of these two ETFs:
If gold ETFs and BTC spot ETFs continue to see synchronized inflows, it indicates that funds are massively reallocating to non-sovereign assets; The Talisman of Old Coins: Every 80% Bear Market Increases Your Confidence The Lindy Effect puts it plainly: the longer something survives, the less likely it is to die. This rule, originally used to describe the lifespan of books and technology, has become the hardest survival rule in the crypto market. In Web3, where battle royales happen every four years, time itself is the fairest judge; those who survive are proven gold over and over, while those who can't become footnotes to the fleeting bloom. So here's the question: why can a project keep making breakthroughs? The answer is: every time it survives an 80% deep pullback and hits a new all-time high in the next round, the Lindy Score rises by one point. This is like issuing a letter of credit to the market: it's not a breeze, but a species that can truly stand firm in the storm. Every major drop is the strictest stress test of consensus; only projects that can withstand the test of time are the ones that can withstand the test of time. This letter of credit never expires; every time it crosses through, its credit limit is raised accordingly. So BTC and ETH are a given—even DOGE, ZEC, PEPE retain unique resilience. They have weathered every winter, and the market's faith in them has been further solidified. Conversely, those new VC coins with billions in fully diluted valuations have to start from scratch to prove themselves, and history has given a harsh answer: the vast majority can't even survive their first crossing. Why is liquidity always concentrated in these established assets? # Latest Updates
- Hormuz oil tanker resumed, daily volume 7-8 million barrels, Brent crude up 1.76% to $88.47.
- Fed hawk-dove divergence intensifies, hawks advocate tightening, market awaits Wash's Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
- BTC stands above $80,000, ETH at $2,514, BTC ETF net inflow $232 million.
- Anthropic teams up with Salesforce to launch Claudeforce, CRM surges 22.6%, software sector rebounds.
- Nvidia acquires Hugging Face for $12.9 billion (about 80x revenue), Anthropic IPO possibly by end of September.
# Trading Analysis
- Maintain conclusion: AI rotation shifts from hardware shortage to ROI validation.
- Fed hawk-dove divergence intensifies, hawks see rates as accommodative, combined with trust deficit, 10-year US Treasury yield remains high at 4.67%, suppressing high-valuation risk assets. Brent crude still at $88.47. Core variables focus on Friday's Wash Jackson Hole debut and US-Iran negotiations.
- Nvidia short squeeze up 8.7% did not drive hardware. CRM breaks SaaS doomsday theory. Watch Anthropic IPO prospectus ROI data.$BTC
BTC has risen above 80,000, rebounding over 25% from 62,000 within the month. This is not a confirmation of a new bull market, but a liquidity return after an oversell. ETFs bring in money, and a weaker dollar also helps. However, it is still about 36% below last year's high, with resistance around 81,000. Holding above this level is a step up; failing to hold means just a rebound. Don't mistake a rebound for a trend.What I’m watching at Jackson Hole isn’t only the next rate decision. Kevin Warsh seems to be thinking about something much bigger how the Fed actually operates and communicates policy.
Since taking over, Warsh has already pushed for a fresh look at Fed communication, the balance sheet, economic data, productivity and the inflation framework. To me, that’s more interesting than trying to guess whether the next move is a hike, hold or cut.
Personally, I like the idea of questioning whether the old framework still fits today’s economy. AI investment is changing productivity, government borrowing is huge, and markets react to every sentence from the Fed. Maybe relying so heavily on forward guidance isn’t always helpful.
But there’s also a risk. Less guidance means markets have to do more guessing, and we’ve already seen how quickly rate expectations can move when the Fed’s message isn’t clear.
#WalshPolicyFramework $BTC Overnight, U.S. stocks fluctuated and closed higher, with the Nasdaq leading the gains. Nvidia's earnings report significantly exceeded market expectations, raising its revenue guidance. The AI computing power industry chain collectively strengthened, becoming the main market driver. The storage sector, to which SanDisk belongs, also warmed up simultaneously. AI servers have driven up demand for storage chips, leading to a valuation recovery in the sector.
Currently, the market is driven by earnings reports from leading companies, and overall index valuations remain high. U.S. Treasury yields stay elevated, and expectations for rate cuts remain unclear. The Jackson Hole meeting and inflation data are the key upcoming variables.
I believe this is a structurally driven rebound led by earnings reports, not the start of a broad bull market. There is a risk of profit-taking and pullbacks despite the positive outlook for AI and storage. I do not recommend chasing the rally; focus on monitoring U.S. Treasury rates and subsequent corporate performance for assessment. Be patient and steady at these high levels!
$SNDK $BTC #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 家人们，今晚十点，才是本周真正的终局之战——美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔的首次亮相。 英伟达财报只是开胃菜，沃什的嘴才是决定8万大饼能不能站稳的关键。 市场到底在紧张什么？ 沃什上任后废了“前瞻指引”，7月会议啥也没说清楚，直接导致30年期美债收益率飙到5.34%。这次演讲被市场视为挽回政策信誉的关键大考。华尔街要的不是鹰派或鸽派表态，而是一套明确的“政策反应函数”——通胀、就业、增长，到底怎么触发政策调整。 今晚三个核心看点 第一，通胀框架怎么说。 核心PCE还在3.3%，远高于2%目标。市场预期沃什会重申通胀风险、保留加息选项以重建信誉。如果对通胀态度模糊，长债可能遭遇新一轮抛售。 第二，会不会提长债收益率。 30年期还在5.3%附近，财政部回购只能托底不能治本。如果沃什暗示“长债收益率高企本身就在收紧金融环境，减轻了美联储加息压力”，这就是偏鸽信号。如果完全不提，债市可能继续被锤。 第三，会不会给9月任何指引。 巴克莱等机构预计沃什大概率不会给出明确的加息承诺。目前CME数据显示9月加息概率约45%，12月前加息概率超70%。如果连模糊AI demand may double within a year, but memory production capacity cannot keep up. This might be the hidden constraint behind the next phase of AI development. Yesterday, Nvidia showed us evidence from the demand side: Data center revenue: $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. Today, SK Hynix showed us evidence from the supply side. Its CEO expects the current memory shortage to last until 2030. Let's also look at the capacity timeline: New HBM factory in Indiana → Cleanroom production: second half of 2028 → HBM4E mass production: Q3 2029. This is the mismatch phenomenon I am focusing on. AI demand grows rapidly on a quarterly basis, while advanced memory capacity expansion happens on a yearly basis. Therefore, the real question is not just: "Is HBM demand strong?" but rather: "Which physical link in the HBM supply chain takes the longest to expand capacity?" Wafer capacity? Stacking? Packaging? Certification? The next bottleneck may be hidden here. $NVDA $MU #semiconductor #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% 🔥 BTC returns to $80,000, and what truly matters is not "how much more it can rise," but whether funds can continue to spread from BTC to Altcoins. As of August 28 Beijing time, BTC remains the core of market liquidity, with ETF funds continuously flowing in, but BTC Dominance is close to 60%, indicating that funds still favor BTC, and a full Altseason has not yet been confirmed. 1. Market Fund Behavior Currently, funds are beginning to spread from BTC to high Beta assets such as ETH, SOL, and XRP, but this still represents structural rotation. ETH/BTC has somewhat recovered, and the trading activity of strong assets like SOL has increased, indicating that Risk-on sentiment is strengthening. 2. Sector Differentiation BTC: Supported by institutional funds and ETF inflows. ETH: Relative strength has improved and is an important indicator to observe fund diffusion. SOL/XRP: Increased attention from high Beta funds. Meme and small-to-mid cap Alts: Highly volatile but more sensitive to liquidity changes; sustainability still needs verification. 3. Bull and Bear Logic ✅ Bullish: Continuous ETF inflows, rising risk appetite, ETH/BTC recovery, increased trading volume in some Alts. ⚠️ Risks: BTC Dominance remains high, Funding turns positive, market sentiment leans toward greed; if macro policies turn hawkish, Alts may experience greater volatility than BTC. 4. Three Scenarios 1️⃣ Neutral: BTC oscillates at a high level, ETF inflows continue, funds concentrate on ETH, SO #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议
Recently, I carefully reviewed the game between the US and Iran, and the situation is actually very delicate; it is not a simple easing.
Iran has released news that it will temporarily open a specific channel in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing ships to pass, while preparing to submit a new list of conditions to the United States. However, it drew a hard line: for long-term navigation, the premise is that both sides sign a memorandum of understanding; the current temporary passage does not count as reconciliation.
On the other side, the attitude is very tough. The Trump administration directly refused to restore the old agreement from June and plans to continue pressuring Iran with a combination of sanctions on oil, shipping, finance, and cross-border payments.
Iran also refuses to back down, putting forward its own exchange conditions: the US must lift the exemptions on Iranian oil sales, end the maritime blockade, and restore the original agreement before it will fully and completely open the Strait of Hormuz.
First, let's talk about what this temporary passage means now.
In the short term, it indeed removes the biggest black swan risk of the strait being immediately closed and shipping instantly interrupted, so there was no violent spike in crude oil prices in the short term.
But many people tend to overlook one point: the temporary passage does not solve the core bottlenecks of restricted Iranian oil exports and blocked cross-border fund settlements; the root contradictions remain and have not been eliminated.
So now it is a very tangled situation: on one hand, a temporary channel has been opened to ease the atmosphere, while on the other hand, sanctions are still being intensified, and substantive negotiations have not materialized.#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议
I have carefully reviewed the recent developments in the US-Iran situation. The points of conflict here will continue to impact the crude oil, gold, and crypto markets.
Iran has made concessions by temporarily opening specific lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing some vessels to pass, while preparing to submit new negotiation terms to the US. However, this is only a temporary passage; full navigation requires both sides to sign a memorandum of understanding.
On the other hand, the US stance remains tough, outright rejecting the restoration of the agreement reached in June and continuing to apply pressure through sanctions on oil, shipping, and financial payments. The demands from both sides are completely unequal: Iran requires the US to lift oil sales exemptions, end the maritime blockade, and restore the old agreement before fully opening the strait.
So, in my view, this temporary passage only avoids the extreme risk of an immediate shipping halt; the root issues remain unresolved. Obstacles to oil exports and fund settlements are still very real.
The key points for the market going forward are twofold: whether the scope of temporary passage can be further expanded, and whether sanctions will cause real damage to oil supply before diplomatic talks yield results.
Don’t assume the risk is gone just because of the brief passage. The geopolitical tug-of-war will repeatedly disturb crude oil, gold, and BTC prices. In such a situation, the market can easily reverse quickly, so trading must be approached with great caution.Regulatory intervention combined with trapped speculative funds has caused high-valuation assets to face extremely steep liquidity discount pressure after the exhaustion of buying at elevated prices.
Under the dual blows of the National Development and Reform Commission naming disorderly development and the China Securities Regulatory Commission investigating speculative inducement behaviors, speculative funds that previously tried to prop up prices to save themselves have fallen into passive traps. Retail investors' low willingness to follow the trend has blocked exit channels, and overall risk appetite at the trading desk has rapidly declined.
In terms of driving factors, regulatory crackdowns squeezing inducement leverage rank first, valuation corrections due to disconnection from fundamentals rank second, and exhaustion of follow-up buying funds ranks third.
The conditions to trigger an upward scenario require observing a marginal easing of regulatory investigation pressure and a volume contraction and turnover sedimentation of $UNITREE during intraday trading. If a volume contraction and price stabilization signal appear, the market may launch a short-term technical oversold rebound; however, if fundamentals do not improve sufficiently, any volume-less rally will trigger a failure signal, making the rebound more likely to turn into a trapped position escape window.
The conditions to trigger a downward scenario are continued tightening of regulatory policies or forced concentrated cut losses by trapped speculative funds, which in turn triggers position liquidation pressure. If $UNITREE breaks key support and liquidity for taking over remains scarce, risk appetite will collapse comprehensively and accelerate valuation downgrades. If subsequent turnover rate significantly expands during the decline, it indicates accelerated exit of major funds.
The failure condition lies in whether trapped funds complete clearing through concentrated stop-losses in a short time or if regulatory implementation details turn out better than pessimistic expectations. If prices can secure strong buying support at critical levels, the current unilateral downward projection will be invalidated.
The key variables to track over the next 7 days are the progress of the CSRC investigation implementation, changes in turnover rate of trapped funds during intraday trading, and retail investors' willingness to follow buying support.
#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易$BTC has finally reclaimed and closed above $80K. This wasn't a quick fake breakout — it marked the end of a long consolidation phase and signaled a shift in market structure. This rally is being driven by ETF inflows, improving liquidity expectations, and short-covering. Unlike previous moves fueled mainly by leverage, spot demand is now playing a much larger role. Sentiment has improved, $ETH and other majors are following higher, and risk appetite is returning. That said, a breakout above $80🚨 Big Tech is getting hit—but not all names are bleeding equally.
Look at the drawdowns from their 52-week highs:
$CRM: -6%
$NVDA: -3%
$MSFT: -9%
$AAPL: -9%
$AMZN: -11%
$GOOGL: -17%
$META: -28%
$TSLA: -29%
Some are barely pulling back, while others are already deep in correction territory. 👀
The real question now: Is this just a healthy reset—or the start of something much bigger?
#DailyOrbit From 890 to being strangled by regulation, how much longer can $ZEC hold on?
This surge in ZEC was purely driven by ETF speculation, rising from 610 to 890 between August 18 and 23, with all the good news priced in early. When the ETF actually launched on the 25th, it instead dropped 6-7%, a classic "sell the fact" scenario. Social buzz peaked on the 22nd, and no one chased it afterward.
The technicals also don’t support further gains; when it hit 890, the RSI soared to 83, indicating severe overbought conditions. On the listing day, $11.19 million in leveraged positions exploded, mostly long positions forcibly liquidated, with gamblers chasing the rally wiped out.
The harshest blow is the EU’s new anti-money laundering law, effective July 2027, which prohibits exchanges and banks from dealing with privacy coins. Big players have no legal way to move in or out of Zcash, and three years from now, institutions won’t be able to take over positions, making it a dead end in the long run.
No short-term story to tell, long-term strangled by regulation, the bearish case is solid. #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 八月的加密市场走出了一波超预期的上涨行情 比特币一改过去四年8月收跌的惯例 叠加以太坊ETF资金持续进场 但周五巨额期权到期 又给盘面埋下短期震荡的隐患 比特币8月的反弹力度创下2017年之后的最强月度表现 7月31日收盘价格约63000美元 8月25日冲高至81266美元 月度涨幅已经突破25% 本轮上涨并不是短暂的死猫反弹 上涨过程中成交量持续放大 大量空头头寸选择回补平仓 ETF通道源源不断的增量资金持续托底盘面 宏观层面还有潜在利好加持 美国财政部计划自9月9日起 把长期债券流动性回购规模由20亿美元上调至最低40亿美元 宽松预期进一步推升风险资产的做多情绪 周五UTC上午8点Deribit平台将有63.6亿美元的比特币期权集中到期，合约数量约81000份 从这个时间节点开始，比特币开始上涨 币种层面，$ETH同步回暖 日内低点2433.13美元 当下正冲击2500美元第一道阻力 ETH‑ETF单日净流入184.32万美元 七天累计吸纳352893枚ETH，折合8.66亿美元。 机构大单同样现身 Bitmine直接从Kraken交易所购入20000枚ETH 交易金额约4889万What to pay attention to is that capital is repricing gold, not "how much more gold can rise"
Central banks bought 289 tons of gold in Q2, a Q2 record, with a year-on-year increase of about 62%; more importantly, this capital movement occurred against the backdrop of a roughly 8% quarterly pullback in gold prices, indicating that central banks are buying for reserve allocation, not chasing the rally. China increased holdings by 33 tons in a single quarter, and Poland bought as much as 51 tons, showing very strong demand.
The market has actually priced in part of this in advance: spot gold $XAU recently surged back to about $4696, currently still above $4600; global physical gold ETFs also saw a net inflow of about $3 billion in July, indicating institutional capital has caught up.
I am more optimistic about gold mining companies as the real beneficiaries, rather than simply chasing gold prices. For example, Harmony's profits surged 87% year-on-year, Agnico's Q2 EPS rose 57% year-on-year, and the gold price increase is directly translating into profits and cash flow.
My top pick is AEM (Agnico Eagle). Central bank gold buying is a slow variable, but mining company profits can amplify gold price gains. The gold price near 4700 is already expected, but the revaluation of mining company earnings is not yet complete, worth continued attention, and corrections are more comfortable than chasing highs. Damn it! This market is really driving the shorts crazy!
Brothers, are you still okay? Are your positions still holding?!!
$BTC is repeatedly hovering around the 80,000 mark, shorts are being crushed to the ground.
Shorts are getting beaten so badly even their own mothers wouldn't recognize them!
Bitcoin short liquidations reached $82.85 million, while longs only $32.22 million. With this data laid out, it's clear who's taking the hit.
$ETH at 2500 has become a meat grinder for longs and shorts.
Shorts are still being pressed down. The 2500 level is being fought over back and forth; whoever chases it suffers.
$SOL is the brightest star on the field, bar none.
SOL spot ETF inflows have already reached $1.2 billion. Compared to this growth, BTC and ETH are just amateurs.
So what's the problem now?
This round of the market is basically built on leverage, not real money buying in.
The whales aren't idle either.
Between $80,000 and $82,500, a large amount of Bitcoin's on-chain cost basis is stacked there, so any rise has to face heavy selling pressure.
This afternoon, Deribit has about $6.4 billion worth of Bitcoin options expiring. $6.4 billion pressing down, this is no joke!
My judgment: 90% contract trading volume + whales selling + $6.4 billion options pressing down — this combo punch makes short-term risk ridiculously high!
Celebrate all you want, but don't forget who's footing the bill 🥲
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 $SNDK Short Selling Review: Made $63 in one day, perfectly exited from 1528 to 1465
Short Selling Basis:
First, although the earnings report and guidance are still okay, the market had previously priced in too much; the stock price, propped up by "surprises," didn't get bigger surprises, so it naturally had to give back gains.
Second, the gross margin is already ridiculously high, and everyone fears the price hike cycle is over. It had risen too much earlier, mostly profit-taking inside, so the earnings report provided a perfect opportunity to exit.
Third, the market started worrying whether AI cash burn can continue, combined with Chinese manufacturers catching up, Citron openly shorting, and technical charts breaking down. Once the high-leverage positions burst, the drop became even more severe.
#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #Will Wash debut tonight at Jackson Hole, can he clarify the policy framework?
The core contradiction is very clear. What the market wants is not hawkish or dovish statements, but a decision-making framework that links inflation, employment, and financial conditions. Since taking office, he has consistently avoided forward guidance, with two press conferences being vague. Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker put it bluntly: such statements are no longer enough.
Tonight, let's see how he responds to three questions. Inflation has been above 2% for five consecutive years; what is his tolerance boundary? PMI is at a four-year high while consumption is weak; which has more weight? Long-term interest rates have surged above 5.3%; where is the boundary between the Fed and the Treasury? $BTC $ETH $SOL
BTC is fluctuating around 81,000; my long positions from 78,500 to 80,000 have already closed. Ethereum longs from 2,480 to 2,520 have also been closed; the short at 2,540 stopped out at 2,580 and is still held. No heavy positions before tonight's speech; will act once the direction is clear.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The theme of the meeting is "Financial Innovation: Impact on Payments and Policy," but the market's focus is only one — whether Wash can give a definite answer. Why is tonight so important? Because Wash himself has blocked the road. Since taking office in May, he has cut forward-looking guidance, compressed policy statements, and held two vague press conferences. The July FOMC press conference was widely criticized as a "communication failure," with neither explaining why rates remained unchanged nor stating "willing to raise rates if necessary." The market voted directly with its feet—the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007. Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard warned that the Fed's credibility is at risk. What exactly is the market waiting for tonight? It's not about "whether to raise prices in September," but about three things. First, how exactly does Wash define this round of inflation? Oil prices have reached $90, gasoline prices have risen about 60% this year. Is inflation a "temporary shock" or a "structural risk"? This judgment determines everything. Second, whether he gives a "reaction function." The market doesn't need a September rate hike forecast; it needs to know—what data and thresholds will trigger rate hikes. If he's willing to pay, the market breathes a sigh of relief; If he keeps playing Tai Chi, long-term bonds will still be smashed. Third, is the surge in long-term bond yields a "good thing" or a "risk" in his eyes? If he thinks this is tightening financial conditions to help fight inflation—then the Fed won't intervene; If he sees it as policyThe market repeatedly oscillates back and forth around the 80,000 mark, with the core driving force being the large Deribit options expiration at 16:00 this Friday.
The expiring positions total $6.44 billion, with 44,600 call options and 37,100 put options, a PCR of 0.83, indicating an overall bullish position structure.
Key strike prices: 75,000 and 80,000, with 80,000 being a very critical resistance anchor.
The root cause of the oscillation is the market makers' Gamma hedging:
After the coin price surged from 62,000 to 80,000, a large number of call options became in-the-money. Market makers have accumulated a large amount of in-the-money call options, and according to hedging rules, they need to continuously sell spot or futures contracts to offset the risk.
There are still option positions with a notional value exceeding $500 million within a ±5% price range.
1. Pinning effect: When the price is close to the 80,000 strike price, Gamma hedging will continuously place orders back and forth. When the price pushes up, selling pressure emerges; when it falls back, buying support appears, causing the market to be locked in a sideways range near 80,000.
2. Accelerated volatility after breakout: Once the 80,000 strike price is decisively broken, the hedging direction will switch all at once. If it breaks upward effectively, market makers need to buy back chips, helping to push the price further up; if it falls sharply below 80,000, many calls become out-of-the-money, reducing hedging sell pressure, but a large number of call strike positions accumulate at 75,000 below, forming another support anchor.
A PCR of 0.83 only indicates a bullish position structure for the expiring options and does not guarantee that the market will rise after expiration. A bullish position simply means more long bets in the market, and the oscillation caused by Gamma hedging is a short-term liquidity disturbance.
The constraining effect of option hedging will most likely significantly fade after the 16:00 expiration and settlement on Friday. Once settlement is complete, market makers will no longer need to continuously hedge these positions, allowing the market to break free from the current pinned oscillation pattern and develop a smoother trend. #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
The current AI industry earnings season has basically concluded, and the market narrative focus is undergoing a critical shift.
The hardware side remains robust. The results delivered by Nvidia and Marvell continue to confirm the strong market demand in computing power and high-speed network connectivity sectors. Marvell's revenue surged 37% year-over-year and provided next quarter guidance exceeding market expectations, indicating that the high demand logic on the hardware layer remains solid.
The biggest highlight of this earnings season comes from clear commercialization signals landing on the software side. CrowdStrike's quarterly revenue rose 26%, with net new annual recurring revenue soaring 51% to $333 million, and it raised its full-year outlook; Salesforce and Okta also gained market favor thanks to better-than-expected results and positive guidance. AI is no longer just a procurement boom for hardware chips but is transferring monetization toward enterprise applications and software services.
Differentiation has followed. After Synopsys announced its earnings, its stock price came under pressure and declined, sending a very clear signal: the capital market will no longer give indiscriminate premiums to all AI concept stocks. Simply tagging along with the AI concept is no longer enough to impress investors.
The market discussion focus has completely shifted from the initial question of "Is there AI demand or not?" to the next core issue: can enterprises truly convert their earlier substantial AI investments into new orders, stable recurring revenue, and free cash flow? #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
AI market logic shift: from competing in hardware to monetizing software
The current round of AI industry chain earnings reports is basically concluded, and the market logic is undergoing a clear transformation.
The hardware side still maintains high prosperity, with Nvidia and Marvell continuously validating demand for computing power and networks. Marvell's revenue surged 37% year-over-year, and next quarter's guidance also exceeded expectations.
However, the highlights have gradually spread to the software side. CrowdStrike's quarterly revenue increased by 26%, with new recurring revenue soaring 51%, leading to an upward revision of the full-year forecast; Salesforce and Okta also received positive market feedback thanks to impressive performance, signaling clearer AI commercialization implementation.
But not all AI concepts can enjoy high valuations. After Synopsys' earnings report, its stock price came under pressure, and the market began to differentiate.
The market discussion no longer fixates on "whether AI demand exists," but rather questions the core issue: can enterprises turn AI investments into actual new orders, sustainable revenue, and cash flow?
Hardware procurement is cyclical, but if software commercialization succeeds, it could bring longer-term stable growth, which will be the most important watershed for the upcoming market trend. Fundamental Research Report $TON / The Open Network (Public Chain/L1) $1.40 (24h +0.45%)
Summary: The Open Network ($TON) has an overall score of 60/100, rated as narrative-driven over execution. Breaking down the three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project Overview: The Open Network (token $TON) operates in the public chain/L1 sector. It focuses on the Telegram ecosystem, payments/wallets. Competitors include SOL and NOT. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, facing issues like gas price spikes under high concurrency, TPS limitations, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price ranges from $50 to $500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product Deployment: The protocol layer is officially operational; on-chain dashboards show accumulating protocol fees with evidence of paid usage. The latest version is v2026.08, with 2,476 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User Metrics: Address MAU and DAU are undisclosed; 24h transaction volume is $50.40M; TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue: User fees undisclosed; supplier income is approximately 80-90% of user fees (allocated to LPs and nodes); protocol treasury income is $1.56M; token holders’ buyback and burn have no annualized burn mechanism. The 24h transaction volume represents business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, and protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code Side: 2,476 valid commits in 90 days, 72 active contributors, latest version v2026.08. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment Background: Company equity financing can be checked on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A); token private and public sales are documented in the whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A); market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs; technical integration is evidenced by API/SDK access (grade B); strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment; exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token Metrics: Total supply 5,238,914,788.003551; circulating supply 2,765,994,205.2899246 (52.8%); FDV $7.35B; next unlock undisclosed (percentage of circulating undisclosed); no clear annualized buyback and burn mechanism. Must buy tokens to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: The Open Network $3.88B, SOL undisclosed, NOT undisclosed. FDV: The Open Network $7.35B, SOL undisclosed, NOT undisclosed. Annual revenue: The Open Network $1.56M, SOL undisclosed, NOT undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: The Open Network undisclosed, SOL undisclosed, NOT undisclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: Circulating market cap $3.88B, FDV $7.35B, P/S 2491.1x, FDV divided by revenue 4718.2x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.88B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario includes revenue doubling, burn implementation, and enterprise clients, aligning FDV P/S with top projects.
Summary: Fundamentals are solid (score 60/100). Token value capture is realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap is relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextending expectations; FDV is moderate. Risk warnings: short-term large unlocks causing sell-offs, protocol income long-term dropping to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Key future indicators to watch: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. This is a public data-driven analysis, not investment advice. Conclusions become invalid if core indicators change by more than 30%.
Report finished, please consider carefully.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit Since my last post until today, I've been running for over a week. The most tangible thing to update—the numbers. As of 2026-08-28, for the live trading segment (starting August 10), total transaction criteria: after deduplication, 123 deals (last post 90), win rate 68.3% (last post 68.9%), net profit/loss +1.82 USDT. The win rate slightly dropped from 68.9% to 68.3%, but the sample jumped from 90 to 123 — the longer the range and more orders, the more valuable the win rate actually is. Looking at individual targets: NVDA contributed the most (+5 USDT), but also lost stocks, such as TSLA and GOOGL drawdowns. Not blowing up, just losing, to be honest. [Review Reflections] My biggest takeaway this week is still the same saying: filtering is more important than the signal itself. There is a lot of noise at the 5-minute level, and the difference between high-score signals (score ≥85) and ordinary signals is obvious. It's better to miss them than to make mistakes. Market sentiment also needs to be considered—panic/greed and macro pressure can affect signal fulfillment rates, so reduce the frequency of trades in bad conditions. The above is my personal live trading experience and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; please be cautious when entering the market. If you are interested in quantitative signal methods, feel free to discuss in the comments section, and you can also find more information in my homepage introduction.$SOL has risen more than 11% in the past 24 hours, and this strong performance is not just following BTC.
Two new developments are worth noting:
First, Charles Schwab, managing over $12 trillion in assets and about 39 million active accounts, plans to add spot trading for SOL, AVAX, and LINK in the coming months.
Second, publicly listed DeFi Development Corp has purchased about 19,000 more SOL, increasing its holdings to approximately 2.33 million SOL and equivalent assets.
This means SOL is gaining demand from both traditional financial distribution channels and the balance sheets of listed companies.
But the risks are also clear: SOL’s monthly gain has approached 40%, and the short-term price may have already priced in some of the positive factors. What matters more than the gain going forward is whether there is sustained spot buying during any pullbacks.
Do you think SOL’s core driving force is shifting from on-chain trading to institutional allocation?
$SOL Goldman Sachs Latest Assessment｜Persian Gulf Oil Supply Continues to Recover, Geopolitical Premium on Oil Prices Gradually Eases📉
Goldman Sachs' latest report points out: Persian Gulf oil exports continue to warm up, currently restored to two-thirds of pre-war levels, effectively alleviating previous extreme supply anxieties, and the upward pressure on oil prices has significantly narrowed.
Key Data Comparison
- Current exports: 15–16 million barrels/day
- Normal level before conflict: 22–24 million barrels/day (still a 7–8 million barrel gap)
- March low point: only 5–6 million barrels/day
Since the recovery from the freezing point, the efficiency of shipping channels has greatly improved. Coupled with the normalization of dark ship navigation and ship-to-ship transfers by shipping companies, market panic over Middle East supply disruptions has continued to cool, and the geopolitical risk premium has gradually declined. This is the core reason for the recent weak oscillation in oil prices.
1. Supply recovery ≠ complete safety: there is still a significant supply gap, and the situation may fluctuate again at any time, disturbing freight rates and oil prices. The downside is temporary, not a trend.
2. Oil prices are determined by multiple factors: OPEC+ production cuts, global demand, and inventory cycles still provide support, so prices will not simply plunge unilaterally due to export recovery.
3. Sentiment in A-share oil and gas sector cools: oil and gas extraction, oil transportation, and refining face short-term pressure and oscillation; focus first on fundamental rhythms rather than geopolitical event speculation.
Summary
The worst supply panic in the Middle East has passed. The upside for oil prices is capped, but there is also supply-demand support at the bottom. Going forward, it is highly likely to maintain a high-level wide-range oscillation, making unilateral trends more difficult.After the Moonwell attack, Base core markets suspend new borrowing
After Moonwell's MAMO market on Base suffered a price manipulation attack, borrowing limits for all core markets were reduced to 1 wei, effectively blocking new loans. CertiK and PeckShield estimate losses of about $8.7 million: the attacker inflated the price of the less liquid MAMO, then borrowed real assets like cbBTC using the overvalued collateral.
This incident affects not only MAMO holders. Even if other assets are used as collateral, users currently cannot take out new loans in these core markets.
The issue is therefore more specific: adding a new collateral type to the lending protocol not only supports another asset but also brings its liquidity and pricing risks into the entire market.
Moonwell is still investigating; the final losses and remediation plans are not yet clear.
#Base #DeFi #SecurityGlobal semiconductor market hits $368B in Q2 with positive YoY growth, while $SNDK Sandisk hovers near $1,479. Is market mis‑pricing or fundamentals weakening?
Bearish factors:
1. Deep‑rooted cyclical stigma for memory chips, investors hesitate to assign growth‑stock multiples.
2. Massive prior rally already priced in AI‑supercycle optimism, profit‑taking post strong earnings.
3. Cloud giants’ huge long‑term supply contracts raise concerns over pricing power constraints.
#DailyOrbit In this AI round, NVIDIA has not yet reached the stage of "storytelling completion"
Trading $33.5 billion in 140 minutes is far more worth watching than a simple surge
This indicates that capital is re-competing for the pricing power of the AI main theme. $NVDA surged 8.7% yesterday, with a market value increase of $441.5 billion in a single day, setting a direct historical record; Q2 revenue was $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. This is no longer storytelling; the performance is strongly supporting the valuation.
More importantly, the company’s revenue growth forecast for the next fiscal year is about 70%, significantly higher than the market’s previous expectation of about 40%; meanwhile, NVDA’s forward PE is about 17.9 times, which is actually lower than AMD’s 37 times and Intel’s 46 times.
Has the market priced in in advance? Yes, but not completely. Previously, the market worried that AI capital expenditure had peaked, and NVDA’s annual increase was once only about 12%. Now this wave looks more like a valuation repair.
Most optimistic about NVDA. After a short-term surge with volume, chasing is not recommended, but pullbacks are still worth attention. There were some notable points about yesterday's ETF fund outflow: 1. BTC finally started showing net outflows, with a net outflow of 35.3M so far and a net inflow of 232M the day before. Previously, there had been eight consecutive working days of net ETF inflows. Personally, I think there will be a slight pullback recently, but I won't short; instead, I'll wait for the pullback to stop falling before looking for a long position. 2. ETH ETF funds have had no net outflows for 12 consecutive days, with only one day showing no movement and the other 13 days showing net inflows. The momentum remains strong. The short-selling experts are probably trembling as well. Personally, I won't go short; I will only look for opportunities to go long. 3. SOL's ETF funds have also seen net inflows for eight consecutive days. Notably, yesterday's net inflow hit a nearly one-month high (56M, possibly the highest in nearly half a year, and last week's peak was only 33M). This is also a key reason why SOL surged 12% yesterday. Currently, looking at the candlestick chart, there is no sign of stopping the price spike. It really can compete with ETH. 4. HYPE's ETF funds have also been releasing major moves in recent days. Yesterday it hit a new high in nearly a month (24M, possibly also a six-month high). The net inflows over the past three days were 7.5M, 14.7M, and 24.4M, respectively. It feels like volume is growing exponentially, but price increments are shrinking. I think it's very significant#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Tonight's main event! Walsh's Jackson Hole debut, the market is waiting for a clear answer
Keep a close eye at 10 PM tonight, Walsh's first keynote speech at Jackson Hole since taking office is coming.
Looking at recent data, inflation still hasn't met the target, PCE remains above the 2% goal, and initial jobless claims are declining, employment remains very stable. On one hand, inflation is sticky, on the other hand, employment hasn't weakened, plus other Fed officials keep reminding about inflation risks before the meeting, there is already significant internal disagreement about whether to raise rates.
Many think he will directly say whether to raise rates in September tonight, but what the market really wants to see is not that sentence. Everyone wants to understand to what extent inflation and employment changes will prompt the Fed to adjust interest rates, and also where the boundaries lie between the Fed and Treasury regarding long-term interest rates.
The worst case is the speech remains vague, without providing a clear judgment framework. If forward guidance continues to be weakened and no clear signals are given, then the dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and BTC will likely experience back-and-forth volatility, with swings maxed out.
On such a critical night, I dare not casually bet on direction; once the news breaks, sharp rises and falls are easy. Are you leaning more hawkish or dovish? Feel free to share your views. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
At 10 PM tonight, Walsh will deliver his first keynote speech at Jackson Hole since taking office, and many traders around me have already set their alarms.
The current economic signals are quite conflicting. Core PCE remains above the 2% inflation target, but initial jobless claims have fallen, inflation is sticky, yet the employment situation remains stable. Before the meeting, several Federal Reserve officials have come out to warn about inflation risks, and internal disagreements about whether to raise rates are now out in the open.
I think the market's focus now is not so much on whether he will directly decide on a rate move in September. What everyone really wants to hear is a clear judgment framework. Inflation, employment, financial conditions—what conditions must be met to adjust policy, and the boundary of responsibilities between the Fed and the Treasury on long-term interest rates—these are the key points.
The worst scenario would be a vague speech that doesn't provide a clear reaction logic and only weakens forward guidance. If that happens, the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and BTC will most likely enter a period of intense expectation-driven volatility.
Tonight, not only will Walsh speak, but there will also be disturbances from the PCE data beforehand. Do you expect him to present a clear policy framework tonight, or continue to dodge the issue?$HYPE continues to strengthen, completing a revaluation from platform token to on-chain finance?
OKX market data shows $HYPE broke through $86 within 24 hours, achieving a new all-time high again.
Its market cap and trading activity have entered the mainstream asset range.
More importantly, Hyperliquid has formed a closed loop of trading, fees, and buybacks.
The more active the platform trading, the higher the fee income, and the stronger the aid fund's ability to buy HYPE.
HyperEVM and HIP-3 further expand HYPE's use cases; the project team’s deployment of perpetual contract markets requires staking HYPE, gradually making it an ecological entry asset.
Recently, news shows Wintermute has reduced its short exposure on Hyperliquid to $80.48 million, which will ease short-term selling pressure.
On the other hand, the largest HYPE holding institution, suspected to be associated with a16z, continues to buy. They invested 36 million USDC over two days to purchase 441,000 HYPE at an average price of $81.6, all of which are staked!
Regarding ETFs, yesterday $HYPE spot ETF had a total net inflow of $24.421 million in a single day.
Institutions are gradually reaching a consensus on HYPE.
If contract users are subsequently brought into spot and on-chain applications, it will usher in a longer-term value moat.🚨 BTC & ETH AREN’T RALLYING ALONE — ETF MONEY IS BACKING THEM UP
The biggest signal right now isn’t just price action—it’s where the money is flowing.
Spot $BTC ETFs have pulled in roughly $2.8B across 8 straight sessions, while $ETH ETFs brought in around $697M in a single week.
And the price is responding.
$BTC has reclaimed $80K, while $ETH is holding above $2.5K.
When rising prices are supported by consistent ETF demand, the recovery starts to look a lot more convincing.
#DailyOrbit Tonight at 22:00 Beijing time, this guy Walsh will make his debut at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. We have to treat this as a chance to recover, not a reason to keep losing. Since Walsh took office, his style has been—sparing with words. I won’t give guidance; you have to guess for yourselves. At the July press conference, with some vague maneuvers, he directly pushed the 30-year US Treasury yield to the highest level since 2007. Wall Street is now anxious, forcing him to clearly address the word "inflation" tonight. Even more exciting, the Federal Reserve is already divided internally—hawks are calling for continued rate hikes, doves say wait a bit longer. Whichever side he stands on tonight will be the eye of the storm. There are basically three scripts to play out.
Script one: Hawkish (clearly confront inflation) — Walsh slams the table saying "Inflation is my father, we must fight it to the end." The 30-year US Treasury yield could soar from 5.19% directly above 5.5%, the dollar takes off, gold and silver get hammered. But US stocks might drop first as a sign of respect—historical data shows the S&P falls on average 3.4% on the day the Fed Chair speaks at Jackson Hole.
Script two: Dovish (keep dodging) — Walsh starts talking about "working group reforms" and "financial innovation" again. The market will interpret this as "this guy chickened out," the dollar’s credibility continues to collapse, and gold, $BTC, and other "anti-fiat" assets keep rallying.
Script three: Sitting on the fence (most likely) — say a few tough words to soothe the bond market but give no clear signal on a September rate hike. The market will be volatile with sharp ups and downs, killing both bulls and bears, just as it has been these past few days. How will various assets move? The market is always here, but capital (principal) is the only thing that matters.Today's market is very clear: The first leg BTC pulled risk appetite back to the 80,000 range (stable close for 1 day in the past 7 days), the second leg ETH did not follow through (24h -0.0%, 7d +4%), the third leg SOL is moving (24h +6.0%, 7d +17%). This is not an "altcoin broad rally," but capital picking higher beta to take over after the main market stabilizes. My move: you can follow the rotation, but do not chase above $110.6. Relative strength is the core evidence. Over 7 days, SOL outperforms BTC by 14 percentage points and ETH by 13 — this is not just following the rally, but independent excess. But don't forget: in the past 14 days, only 2 days closed above $100; the hundred-dollar mark has just been re-secured, so confirmation is still insufficient. On the capital side, I watch two things: perpetual OI about $0.37B, 7d +39%; funding rate only +0.001%. Translation: someone is adding positions betting SOL will continue to lead, but the market is not yet overheated — spot volume is 1.5 times average volume, with turnover, not extreme volume expansion. A healthy trend is characterized by rising OI and still cool funding rates; if price hovers around $108 and OI continues to surge, then beware of leverage buildup at the key level. Mapping to price levels: Extension: volume expansion and stable hold above $108 → target $112 (about 58% below ATH). Defense: $100 is the sentiment line; breaking $98 is a bull trap above $100. Macro: Jackson HolThe Solana fee reform has sparked a heated debate.
Ellipsis Labs CEO fired directly: the SGP-0003 proposal did not sufficiently consult application developers, and rashly changing the cost model will undermine deployment confidence. Anatoly Yakovenko quickly responded, proposing an alternative charging method based on compute units (CU) — maintaining the average fee unchanged, but shifting the billing logic from "number of signatures" to "actual computational power consumption."
The core of this debate is actually about Solana's positioning: whether to be a "cheap and fast" retail chain or an institutional-grade infrastructure supporting complex financial applications. Market microstructure applications (such as high-frequency trading and MEV strategies) are extremely sensitive to fees, and the signature fee model is indeed friendlier to them; but CU charging aligns better with the fairness principle of "who uses the resources pays."
Toly's response was quick, but Chen is also right — mechanism design needs thorough evaluation. The Solana ecosystem is already complex enough, and every underlying change affects the whole system.
Which should be prioritized: developer confidence or resource efficiency? The outcome of this debate will influence what types of applications Solana attracts next.CZ: National reserves + AI, Bitcoin at $1 million soon!
Today at Bitcoin Asia in Hong Kong, the host asked CZ: What exactly will happen in the so-called Bitcoin century over the next 25 years?
CZ's first reaction was that Bitcoin will reach $1 million, and it doesn't even need to wait 25 years. He even judged that Bitcoin will ultimately be more important than gold, and the gap might start to rapidly narrow in the next bull market.
But after watching the half-hour conversation, the price is actually the least important part.
What CZ is truly betting on are two previously almost non-existent new demands:
Governments around the world start including Bitcoin in strategic reserves, with pensions and retirement funds entering;
On the other side, billions of AI intelligent agents begin trading, purchasing services, and calling computing power themselves, naturally requiring a type of money that machines can directly use;
The latter part is even more interesting. CZ revealed that he has already discussed issuing tokens with several top AI companies, because training models is only the first step; the truly terrifying part is the capital expenditure on computing power:
According to him, a one-gigawatt data center costs $30 billion to $50 billion, and some AI companies plan for hundreds of gigawatts in the future, ultimately requiring trillions of dollars.
Thus, data center tokens have emerged: raising funds to build computing power, tokens can be exchanged for computing power, pay for subscriptions and AI services, and AI companies themselves might even become new issuers of crypto assets.
So CZ's judgment for the next decade is actually quite complete:
Humans treat Bitcoin as a reserve asset, AI uses stablecoins and cryptocurrencies for transactions, stocks, real estate, minerals, and other assets continue to be tokenized, and governments begin to compete for regulation, stablecoins, and national-level crypto reserve entry points.
If it really comes to this, Bitcoin at $1 million is not the starting point of the story, but more like the result after the entire financial system treats cryptocurrencies as infrastructure.