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ETF has continuous net inflows, but the nature of the two types of funds is completely different, so don't be misled by surface data BTC and ETH spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with the total weekly inflow hitting a nearly 10-month high. BlackRock is the main buyer. However, there is a structural difference that is easy to overlook: In BTC-ETF, a large portion comes from long-term allocation funds such as pension funds and endowment funds, which hold long-termAfter BTC broke through 81,000, it fell back below 78,000, then fluctuated repeatedly: leverage liquidations and profit-taking dominated, with the weekend still oscillating between 78k-81k.
On August 25, BTC once surpassed $81,000 (peak around 81,200-81,500), ending about 10 weeks of consolidation and rebounding nearly 30% from the range's low point. It then quickly retreated, hitting a low near 77,600-77,870 on August 26, a drop of about 4%, briefly falling below 78,000.
It then rebounded, recovering above 80,000 on August 27, but fell again on August 28, with intraday lows touching the 78,300-78,500 range. Currently, it fluctuates between 78,000-80,500. Overall, it maintains a high-level oscillation pattern after the breakout.
Main reasons (as of today's data):
1. Derivatives leverage reset is core. After the breakout, long leverage quickly accumulated, followed by large-scale long liquidations (around $270 million, accounting for most of total liquidations). Futures open interest fell about 4.5% from the peak. This is a typical "post-breakout leverage retracement," not a single macro black swan event.
2. Profit-taking + overhead supply wall. Rapid rise from over 60,000 to above 80,000 caused obvious short-term overbought conditions. The 81,000-83,000 range is a resistance zone overlapping long-term holder cost areas, self-custodied chips, options hedging, and previous liquidation concentration, where selling pressure is concentrated.
3. No major fundamental negative factors. The pullback lacks confirmed macro or regulatory catalysts; it is more a self-correction of trading structure. Spot ETFs still see continuous inflows, institutional demand remains, but price volatility is amplified by leverage.
Current key levels (August 28):
Around 78,000 is a short-term battleground between bulls and bears, with buyers previously responding. If it can hold above and break through 81,000 again, an upward continuation is likely; if it falls below 78,000 and loses 77,500 support, the next target is 76,500-77,000. Weekend liquidity is thin, so oscillation between 78k-81k is expected to continue.
Overall, this is a healthy clearing and resistance test after a rapid rise; the trend has not clearly reversed yet. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether ETF net inflows can continue to absorb overhead selling pressure and whether it can effectively hold above 81k.
(Data compiled from public market and liquidation reports; prices fluctuate in real time, for reference only, not investment advice.)$BTC has reached its current position, and the most popular market narrative is "first a dip, then a rise." The logic is sound, and the consensus is too, but the problem lies precisely in the consensus itself. Everyone expects a pullback, so it might not happen at all.
From a capital structure perspective, bullish factors still dominate. The spot ETF has maintained positive inflows for nine consecutive days, accumulating over $2.8 billion in August alone, setting a monthly record for the year. This is not retail buying, but systematic allocation by institutions; this money won't stop flowing in just because of a single bearish candle. High-cost capital usually corresponds to strong holding confidence, and short-term volatility is unlikely to shake these chips loose.
The geographic distribution of demand is also worth noting. Buyers in the compliant U.S. market are willing to pay a premium. This premium structure typically appears during institutional accumulation phases, not at market tops.
Profit-taking on-chain continues but at a noticeably slower pace. The seven-day moving average of net realized profit and loss has fallen from previous peaks but remains in positive territory. Early holders are selling, but not in a panic—this orderly turnover is actually a healthy process of chip dispersion, not a sign of trend reversal.
So the conclusion is simple: the market is experiencing high-level turnover, not forming a top. A pullback may occur, but the magnitude is likely limited. Instead of betting long or short around 80,000, it's better to wait for confirmation from right-side signals before entering. The direction hasn't changed; the rhythm needs to be waited on, but confidence should be maintained #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ What will be the next moves for mainstream currencies?
$BTC is once again approaching 80,000, with spot ETFs seeing net inflows of about $2.8 billion over eight consecutive days, and inflows in August exceeding $3 billion, indicating continued institutional support. The issue is that PCE remains somewhat hot, and the market is revisiting rate hike discussions, weakening the macro tailwind; if after breaking through it can still consolidate with reduced volume rather than falling back on increased volume, the structure can be considered healthy.
$ETH continues to outperform BTC this week, with funds spreading to high Beta assets. ETF net inflows and risk appetite jointly support the catch-up rally. However, after consecutive rebounds, chips are becoming crowded, so short-term observation should focus on whether volume contracts on pullbacks; if relative strength does not break, capital rotation may continue.
$SKHYNIX surged yesterday driven by Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report, with HBM demand and AI storage momentum continuing to strengthen; the company has recently accelerated buybacks and cancellations and expanded AI memory capacity, making the mid-term logic clear. However, historically, semiconductor rallies after Nvidia earnings do not always continue, so current focus should be on foreign capital support and high-level turnover.
$XAU gold has pulled back after reaching a three-month high, with hot PCE and hawkish Fed comments suppressing further gains; $OKB remains supported by fixed supply, X Layer, and Exchange OS, mainly digesting chips after a sharp rise; $QQQ is boosted by Nvidia's strong guidance, but US stock funds saw significant outflows this week. The AI theme is strong, but at the index level, macro interest rate disturbances still need to be guarded against.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Waller finished speaking, **more hawkish, tougher than market expectations**.
**Core points of the speech:**
- Inflation remains high, "If underlying inflation does not clearly and quickly approach the 2% target, we still have work to do" — this is the closest hint at a rate hike
- Officially announced "forward guidance is outdated," no more market soothing, you watch the data yourselves
- Said "overall financial conditions are hard to say are tight" — meaning current rates are not tight enough
- Did not mention crypto, stablecoins, or hint at cooperating with the Treasury to suppress long-term bond yields
- Exact words: "What I promise is discipline, not decisions"
**Market reaction:**
- BTC dropped from $81,000 to $78,700, currently around $79,000, down about 1.2%
- Gold down 1.2%, USD strengthened, US Treasury yields rose
- CME rate hike probability surged from 33% to 45.7%, probability of no hike in September is 58%
- BTC weekly still up about 2.3%
**Impact on you: strategy unchanged, but probability of a September pullback increased.**
1. **Continue waiting with ¥40,000 USDT** — Waller’s hawkish tone crushed September rate cut expectations, rate hike probability rose to 46%. If there really is a hike in September or data stays hot, the probability of BTC pulling back to $75,700 first batch is higher than before today. This is actually good; you are just about to buy in.
2. **Keep holding ETH long positions** — opened at $2,415, currently $2,495 still floating profit, stop loss at $2,300 not hit, no action needed.
3. **No chasing highs or shorting** — $79K is a stuck range, wait for September data and FOMC meeting for direction.
4. **The "good news fully priced in" mentioned in Shu Qin’s video is partially coming true**, but currently it’s just a drop from $81K to $79K, not a crash, just normal profit-taking + hawkish pricing.
Simply put: Waller didn’t give candy, he gave a whip. But the whip is hitting the "rate cut fantasy," not the bull market logic. BTC weekly is still up, ETF net inflows have continued for 9 days, institutions are still buying. If it really drops near $75K in September, that’s your opportunity.
Rest for tonight, I’ll keep watching.【Daily Crypto Highlights | Evening Report】August 28
No need to cover too much today, just a few key things really impacting the market.
1. Wash has still crashed the crypto market
Jackson Hole speech tonight was clearly hawkish, the core message: inflation won't come down, the Fed still has work to do.
The market quickly repriced the rate hike risk, short-term US Treasury yields rose, gold plunged. BTC initially held up well but eventually couldn't withstand, dropping from above $81,300 intraday to around $78,500.
Just said: keep the music playing, keep dancing.
Now: okay, we still have to respect the Fed.
2. The good news is, spot funds haven't fled yet
US BTC spot ETF saw a latest single-day net inflow of about $242 million, marking 9 consecutive trading days of net inflows; ETH ETF also had 9 consecutive days of net inflows, with the latest day about $226 million.
So it's quite interesting now:
On one hand, macro pressure is reapplying from above, on the other, ETF funds are still coming in.
No need to guess too far tonight, first watch if BTC can hold around $78K.
If it holds, today is more about emotional release from hawkish expectations; if it doesn't hold, the funds that pushed $80K earlier will start to feel the pain. $BTC $ETH $SOL has seen an accelerated implementation of supply-side deflation, but the failure to meet the extreme burn expectations has triggered a repricing of risk appetite. The SGP-0002 proposal passed with 67% approval, which will reduce issuance by about 18.9 million tokens over the next 6 years, but the additional burn proposal did not meet the threshold, and the expected daily burn increase to 7,500-9,000 tokens did not materialize. This weakens the extreme deflation narrative, and if short-term bullish momentum falters at the 114 resistance level, it may trigger a "sell the fact" position correction. If the price breaks through the 114 resistance level with volume and holds, then the short-term selling pressure transmission logic fails.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解⛔️ The delayed reaction is here!
🎙️ After Wash's speech landed
📈 The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 10 basis points intraday, reaching 4.33%.
$BTC $ETH simultaneously dropped about 0.8%,
which is the decline you see starting from 23:30.
🔉 Key points first:
The 2-year yield is the core indicator used to trade Fed short-term rate expectations, more sensitive to rate hike or cut expectations than the 10-year yield.
2-year yield rising → short-term rate hike expectations heat up → USD strengthens.
Funds will temporarily avoid high-risk assets like Bitcoin,
making the market prone to pressure.
This is one of the reasons for the slight weakness in coin prices tonight.
For the short-term market going forward, watch two indicators:
✅ On one side, monitor the 2-year US Treasury yield trend.
✅ On the other side, track whether capital inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs continue.
💥 As long as ETF buying does not significantly retreat,
a pure pulse-like rise in yields
will only cause oscillating pullbacks
and is unlikely to change the mid-term pattern.
⚠️ Only if both deteriorate simultaneously should risk control levels be raised. BTC、ETH会不会下跌，结合最新形势完整分析
杰克逊霍尔讲话释放混合信号，没有彻底鹰派，也没有给出宽松承诺；叠加周五期权到期、周末临近、远古沉睡钱包间断兑现、ETF机构买盘还在，市场处在宽幅震荡十字路口，有回调下跌风险，但暂时不满足趋势大跌全部条件。
一、会出现下跌的几大驱动（下跌风险）
1、美联储宏观层面（最大风险源）
沃什明确承认通胀具备粘性，保留后续加息选项。9月议息会议临近，如果后续非农、PCE数据再度走强，市场会进一步抬高加息概率，美债收益率上行，直接压制BTC、ETH估值。即便不加息，“高利率维持更久”这个预期，本身就会持续压制风险资产。
2、衍生品与时间窗口扰动
周五CME期权到期，负Gamma环境，容易放大向下插针；机构周五主动降低周末持仓，部分获利盘借冲高止盈。周末法币银行通道关闭，市场流动性稀薄，小资金就可以打出大幅下跌，周末假破位会变多。
3、链上抛压持续存在
多年沉睡钱包持续零星苏醒，逢反弹向交易所充值兑现浮盈；每一轮向上冲高，都会遭遇老筹码卖出，不断消耗多头力量，压制向上突破，容易冲高回落走回调。
4、技术关口压力
BTC 81500‑83000是强压力，ETH2520‑2550阻力很重，多次试探无法放量突破，容易转头向下回踩支撑。
二、阻止深度大跌的支撑力量
1、现货ETF资金缓冲（最重要多头底座）
贝莱德等BTC、ETH现货ETF前期连续多日净流入，机构配置资金还在场内。只要ETF没有转为连续净流出，出现持续性暴跌的概率就有限，回踩会有买盘承接。
2、筹码结构发生改变
远古巨鲸分批卖出，机构接盘，属于缓慢换庄；并非集体一次性疯狂出货，目前还没有看到大规模集体派发链上信号。
3、外部地缘边际缓和
霍尔木兹海峡局势松动，油价风险溢价回落，间接减轻通胀上行的尾部风险，一定程度约束美债收益率上行空间。
三、分两种情景，判断下跌级别
情景①：短期回调（高概率，震荡内部下跌）
不会趋势崩盘，属于震荡里面的下跌洗盘。
• 触发条件：讲话中性，没有超预期鹰派；ETF维持净流入；沉睡钱包只是零星兑现。
• 价格表现：BTC回落测试74800‑76000支撑区间，ETH回踩2240‑2280。打到支撑会出现承接，维持大区间来回震荡。
• 山寨：回调幅度显著大于大饼，合约出现一轮清算。
情景②：中级趋势下跌（需要多重条件共振，概率偏低）
真正趋势走弱，持续下行。
必须同时出现多条信号共振，不是单纯一次盘中下跌：
1）ETF由净流入转为连续多日净流出；
2）日线级别放量跌破BTC74800、ETH2240支撑，收盘收在支撑下方；
3）沉睡远古钱包大批量持续充值交易所；
4）后续美国经济、通胀数据超预期，市场重新定价加息。
一旦全部满足，会打开更大回调空间。
四、盘面分层影响
BTC、ETH
短期会反复出现冲高回落式下跌，属于区间震荡常态。80000、2500属于心理关口，失守不一定代表趋势坏掉，真正生死线看74800、2240。守住这里，依旧属于震荡洗盘；有效跌破，才要警惕中级调整。
山寨币种（SOL、ZEC等）
没有ETF直接买盘，只要大饼出现回调，山寨跌幅会远大于BTC、ETH；周末低流动性环境插针风险更高。
五、重点跟踪观察信号（用来判断会不会演变成大跌）
1、每日ETF资金流向，是否由流入转流出；
2、美债2年期收益率，宏观流动性锚；
3、链上：沉睡地址是否大批量持续打入交易所；
4、关键支撑：BTC74800，ETH2240，看日线收盘是否跌破；
5、区分：周末低流动性打出的急跌插针，不能作为趋势确认，以周一机构资金回归后的盘面为准。
总结
短期会有回调、冲高回落式下跌，震荡波动不会停止；但现在尚不具备直接开启趋势性大跌的全部条件。
行情属于“宏观定大方向，ETF做缓冲，链上筹码、期权放大短期波动”。
如果只是回踩74800、2240附近得到承接，属于震荡内部调整；只有多重利空共振击穿核心支撑，才会进入中级下跌行情。真正决定性的后续催化剂，是美国非农数据以及9月美联储议息会议。
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 This news is very important, and I believe there is another deeper underlying thread: the threshold for independently developing ASIC chips may rapidly decrease in the future. Currently, the signals are unclear, so it is appropriate to hold steady regarding this underlying thread, but I think it could be an important turning point in the next phase.
Correspondingly, there will be new pressure or new incremental markets for $MRVL and $AVGO, which must be continuously monitored. In this post, I will explain why.
1/ Why there will be pressure
Yesterday, I had dinner with a friend who works on $GOOG TPU, and they told me: making a chip requires coordination among many different teams.
Some are responsible for drawing circuit diagrams, that is RTL; some write compilers; some write the lowest-level operators; others build simulators, test performance, and continuously tune parameters.
OpenAI may have handed over a large part of this work directly to its own AI. This is also why Jalapeño can be produced so quickly.
For example, letting GPT help write chip design code, teaching GPT Jalapeño’s own ISA (the chip’s "native language"), and then directly using assembly to write the lowest-level programs for a fixed set of models.
OpenAI knows best what its models compute daily, where the slowdowns are, and where the power consumption is highest, so it is also best suited to tailor chips specifically for its own models.
2/ Why there will be a new market
Actually, there has been a call in recent years to specifically break Nvidia’s supply constraints by making ASICs for Transformer architecture inference.
AI can help you write schematics, write programs, and optimize, but it cannot produce wafers out of thin air, nor can it manufacture HBM, switch chips, and optical modules by itself.
Previously, only companies like Google, Apple, and Amazon could afford chip teams of hundreds or thousands of people. In the future, a company mastering cutting-edge coding models might complete work that used to require many engineers with a much smaller team.
As ASICs increase, the entire supply chain will continue to profit from design, implementation, manufacturing, packaging, storage, and interconnection.
3/ How will I act?
Currently, the signals are unclear, but I believe this could be an important turning point in the next phase Stablecoins can't save US debt, but why is Bitcoin still rising?
On August 19, Bessent announced doubling its long-term Treasury repurchase scale from $2 billion to over $4 billion. The market's reaction was: the 30-year yield still stands above 5.3%.
In the same week, Bitcoin surged from 60,000 to nearly 80,000, short positions liquidated from $1.6 billion to $4 billion, and spot ETF net inflows approached $2 billion.
These two events are two sides of the same coin. The Treasury is playing a distortion game, swapping long-term debt for short-term debt to save on interest. The market sees through this and votes with its feet by buying scarce assets. This money buys gold and also Bitcoin.
So can stablecoins save US debt?
Let's look at the numbers first. Stablecoins have a total market cap of about $300 billion, holding about $200 billion in Treasury bills, accounting for about 3% of the $6.5 trillion Treasury bill market. Compare this to government money market funds at $6.54 trillion and the entire MMF industry at $7.93 trillion. US debt is $40 trillion, an order of magnitude larger.
Moreover, the maturities are mismatched. The Treasury lacks buyers for long-term debt, but the GENIUS Act mandates stablecoins can only hold ultra-short-term assets, addressing a Treasury problem that isn't very severe. Foreign holdings of US debt have dropped from nearly 60% to 30%. Using $300 billion to fill a trillion-level gap doesn't add up mathematically.
The direction is correct though. The GENIUS Act signed in July 2025 essentially tells issuers: you can legally operate, but every penny in the vault must be my IOU. By August 2026, stablecoins still hover around $300 billion, without the expansion expected before legislation.
Blocked by two gates
First, no interest payment. GENIUS prohibits issuers from paying interest to holders. With short-term debt yields above 4%, the opportunity cost of holding stablecoins is 4% to 5% annually. Transaction and payment demand remain, but savings demand is completely absent, and savings is the trillion-level segment. Citibank forecasts a baseline of $1.6 trillion by 2030, optimistic $3.7 trillion, with a middle gap of $2.1 trillion mainly depending on whether yield products are allowed.
Second, market structure lacks rules. Whether coins are securities or commodities, how exchanges register, and whether staking is legal all rely on enforcement cases. This is what the CLARITY Act aims to address, passed by the House 294 to 134.
CLARITY is stuck in the Senate, reasons unrelated to crypto:
One is banking. US bank deposits are about $18 trillion. Banks have cited extreme estimates during lobbying: stablecoin adoption could shift up to $6.6 trillion in deposits. I believe this is exaggerated; reserves will ultimately flow back to the banking system, with the real loss being net interest margin. But net interest margin is the lifeblood of banks, and they demand banning indirect interest payments to exchanges and affiliates.
Two is moral clauses and 60 votes. The Trump family's WLFI issued USD1, and Democrats want to add clauses restricting officials from issuing crypto assets. Republicans hold 53 seats and need 7 Democrat votes; without resolving moral clauses, they can't reach the threshold. Plus, with the November midterms, the window is only September to October.
Given current odds, I estimate: full version 20%, reduced version 35%, delayed to 2027 45%, similar to polymarket's prediction, possibly slightly lower in reality.
The two gates blocking this are the US banking system itself. The Treasury wants new buyers for US debt, but banks don't want to lose deposit interest margins, fighting themselves.
So we get two conclusions:
1. Stablecoins can't save US debt now. Their value lies in the channel, not the total amount: directly connecting global retail USD demand to Treasury bills, bypassing banks and MMF intermediaries. The more channels, the less the Treasury has to rely on specific buyers.
Paying interest is the only key; without approval, stablecoins remain just transaction and payment tools with a visible ceiling.
2. Bitcoin's logic is unrelated to these. The $40 trillion debt ultimately has three paths: growth absorption, inflation dilution, financial repression to suppress rates. But expectations from crypto legislation give Bitcoin a reason to rise. Remember when the Bitcoin ETF had a very low chance of passing, yet Bitcoin rose in advance? It's the same this time.
Back to the most promising crypto stocks, last time the biggest beneficiaries of the Bitcoin ETF were custodian COIN and leveraged Bitcoin MicroStrategy MSTR, both outperforming Bitcoin significantly in the early bull market.
This time the main players are stablecoins, CRCL, and Bitcoin rising due to the US debt crisis, also MSTR leveraged Bitcoin. Before the legislation lands, increasing investment in these two stocks will likely outperform Bitcoin.Bitcoin's market sentiment is quietly shifting from "survival" to "profit-seeking." This recent rebound has brought a large number of holders back into the spotlight, turning losses into profits. This seemingly simple change has actually quietly rewritten the underlying logic of market competition—when people are no longer forced to cut losses, their motivation to sell shifts from fear to active choice. As the pressure eases, new challenges also emerge. Profits themselves are a reason to sell: some want to break even during the rebound, while others want to cash out some at the peak. This means that near the current price, a layer of potential supply pressure may be accumulating. Whether the market can continue to rise depends on whether demand is strong enough and whether these profit-taking positions can be sustained. The focus should be on cross-referencing three sets of relationships: holder profit ratios correspond to potential selling pressure, ETF capital flows represent new demand, and price structure is the final confirmation signal. ETFs are especially worth noting; if institutional funds maintain stable inflows, they are likely to provide the liquidity needed to take profits from selling. It should be clarified that a healthy market never means no sellers. In strong markets, selling pressure is often significant; the real difference lies in whether buyers can fully absorb the pressure. As long as Bitcoin holds key support and demand remains stable, profit-taking is just normal chip rotation; Conversely, if selling accelerates while support is repeatedly lost, the expansion narrative weakens. Profit-taking is not inherently negative; as long as there is enough fresh demand from the other side, their selling may actually be a footnote to market maturity. Risk warning: AccordinglyFamily, American companies have really been making money lately.
Corporate profits in Q2 hit a record high, nearly $4.8 trillion. Profit margins have also surged to levels not seen since the 1940s. The bosses are smiling, shareholders are asking about dividends, and workers are wondering if they can get their paychecks first. But this is indeed related to the big picture.
AI is the core driver behind this profit surge. It's no longer just Nvidia making money; the entire industry chain—chips, cloud computing, data centers, power, cybersecurity—is starting to benefit from AI. SNDK, as an important part of AI storage, naturally also benefits from this chain.
If AI can continue to push profits higher, the current high valuations in the US stock market will be supported by actual performance, giving risk assets confidence and encouraging funds to participate in high-risk investments like crypto. But if AI fails to monetize and profits start to decline, then it will be a very beautiful bubble.
And there’s another side to this. Strong corporate profits are good, but if profits get so strong that they push inflation higher, the Federal Reserve will find it harder to cut interest rates. The economy can’t be too bad, but it also can’t be too good. Investors are really damn hard to please.
Family, whether SNDK can rally today depends on how the market prices this new profit high. The logic of the AI chain remains intact, but you have to manage the timing yourself. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $SNDK $NVDA $BTC The token structure of BICO is quite unique in the current market: all 1 billion tokens have been unlocked and are in circulation, meaning there is no future selling pressure window caused by unlocking schedules. Compared to projects with a large number of tokens still locked, this "fully circulating" feature provides a cleaner environment for price discovery and reduces holders' concerns about timing.📊
From the perspective of the infrastructure sector, BICO is a well-established project that has undergone multiple market tests, with a narrative more focused on actual business implementation rather than story-driven hype. Considering the recent market sensitivity to macro data and volatility brought by options expiration dates, fully circulating tokens often show stronger resilience in choppy markets because supply-side uncertainties have already been priced in.🧭
Of course, full circulation also means that early investors and market makers have more transparent holding costs, and token distribution may be relatively concentrated, which is both an advantage and a potential risk. When market sentiment fluctuates, the movements of large holders still deserve close attention.
Risk warning: Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile, and a fully circulating structure does not guarantee returns. Please assess your own risk tolerance rationally. $BICO🚨 $MRVL BEAT — BUT AI BETA IS UNDER PRESSURE.
Marvell posted strong numbers: 📈 Revenue +37% YoY
🏢 Data Center +46%
🚀 FY27/FY28 outlook raised
Yet $MRVL fell ~8% pre-market, with $SNDK, $MU & $WDC also down.
Meanwhile, $NVDA & $AVGO held steady.
📌 The market may be rotating away from weaker AI plays while direct AI demand remains strong.
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Today's lesson: Even if the high-level reversal signal looks very strong and the shorting win rate feels very high, you must not fully load your position at once.
Watching the K-line plunge sharply with a lot of floating profit, but in a synthetic contract's oscillation, it can quickly rebound at any time, easily sweeping out your position and causing the floating profit to be quickly given back or even stop-loss out.
Applicable scenarios
Only for oscillating markets, where the market repeatedly surges and falls back, with no single strong trend;
⚠️During US stock market holidays or periods of poor liquidity, this batch operation is prohibited because the market is thin and prone to erratic spikes and sweeps.
Operation rules
1. Total position iron cap: 10%, no matter how good the signal is, the total must never exceed 10%.
Even if there is a straight-line surge and reversal, and the subjective judgment of win rate is extremely high, do not go all in with a heavy position at once.
2. Allowed to enter short positions in 3 batches, but only open positions when the price surges and reverses.
- First batch: open a portion when the first surge shows a reversal signal;
- Second batch: add more when the price surges again to the upper edge of the oscillation and reverses again;
- Third batch: only release the last small portion when the price surges for the third time, faces resistance, and falls back;
❗Absolutely no adding to shorts during the downtrend; when the price is going down, adding positions is forbidden, only wait for a new surge reversal point.
3. Closing rules
All positions entered in batches must be closed entirely with profit-taking, no bottom positions left, no halving or holding positions.
4. Stop-loss iron rule
Set a unified stop-loss position; once the price breaks upward out of the oscillation range, exit all positions at once, no holding through losses, no adding positions to average down. Worst-case interest rate expectations: It will likely be difficult to see rate cuts in the Walsh era before the first data from the Walsh working group is released. The market's greatest optimism lies in the gradual weakening of the entire 2026 rate hike expectations.
Core viewpoint: Given the current U.S. financial environment and economic conditions, rate hikes will inevitably trigger economic and financial risks. Walsh cannot bear these consequences, so delaying rate cuts is just to wait for new data and to opportunistically change the existing Fed data anchoring structure.
Therefore, in my view, the most pessimistic expectation is that rate cuts in 2026 may not appear until December, unless economic data during this period provides irrefutable evidence for Walsh to justify rate cuts.
For example, good data would be core PCE annual rate falling below 3%, CPI falling close to or below 3%. Bad data examples include a surge in unemployment rate, nonfarm payroll growth in the 10,000 to 50,000 range, GDP decline, and weakening consumption.
Simply put, either inflation sees a rapid optimistic turn, or the economy faces recession and stagflation risks. Otherwise, I believe current data indeed cannot change Walsh's stance.
The drop in crude oil prices can indeed ease future inflation concerns, but its impact on weakening core PCE is still insufficient. Therefore, the main monetary policy rhythm for the second half of the year may be to reduce rate hike expectations in September and October, and increase rate cut expectations in December. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 今日被涮 $HYPE +0.41% | 吐槽定调 偏多 $HYPE 这七天从 72.5 拉到 86.8，一口气蹦了快两成，你胆子真是肥嘟嘟的才敢在这位置接飞刀。但先别急着拍空，这币后劲儿可能还没放完。2 倍杠杆做多，入场 83 到 85 区间分批挂，止损 79.4，这是 8/26 日内低点，跌穿说明上升结构裂了。目标先看 90 整数关口，站稳再往 95 摸。持仓量七天涨了三成多但费率不升反降，聪明钱在进场但还没到拥挤的程度，多半是上升中继不是顶。具体后面拆。 $HYPE 这七天画了个挺标准的上升通道。8/21 开盘 76.69，盘中砸到 72.519 又被拉回，收在 77.442，留了根超长下影线，典型的恐慌盘被洗完多头接手。之后五天里四天收阳，从 72.5 一路拱上去。最猛的是 8/26 那天单日涨 5.22%，开盘 80.4 收盘 84.65，量放到 4.7 亿U，量价齐飞。但 8/27 就换脸了，盘中最高冲 86.798 创新高，收盘缩回 84.999，振幅 5.4% 实际只涨了 0.41%。下午两点到七点之间从 82.9 一口气拉到 86.8，三个小时又吐回 85 When the giant impact drill of the quantum computer finally targets Bitcoin's load-bearing wall, what StarkWare delivered today is not a blueprint for structural transformation, but a support rod temporarily fixed to the ground beam with expansion bolts. 100,000 satoshis were transferred into an "insurance vault" secured with a hash backup lock. Translated into construction language: you replaced the second lock cylinder on the security door of a room in a masonry building from the 1960s—but the concrete strength grade of the entire building remains at the originally specified C20 on the drawings.
Bitcoin's current ECDSA signature is essentially a master key shared by the whole building; the future quantum computer's Shor algorithm is like a 3D printer that can infinitely replicate this key. What StarkWare has done this time is just to provide a "mechanical backup lock" for specific funds without changing the protocol—meaning no alteration to the floor slabs, no demolition of load-bearing walls, no change to the column grid density; purely an external independent anchoring device. Is this reinforcement? Yes, but it is a "local repair," not "seismic fortification." True quantum security requires rebuilding the entire public key system from the foundation to the parapet, not just adding a gate at the door of some vault.
Now consider the construction cost: each transaction takes several hours, costs $150 to $200, and requires miners to coordinate road closures like municipal works. This is not a replicable standard node process; it is like erecting full scaffolding around a single column and welding layer by layer on site. Any licensed structural engineer will tell you: a reinforcement plan cannot be premised on "holding a traffic coordination meeting for every operation." If wallets and custodians want to scale this, unless this process can be factory-made like prefabricated composite slabs and installed on site, it will always remain a "concept sample" on display, unqualified to be included as a general detail in the design specifications.
The market's focus on assets like $xIREN is essentially observing the construction qualifications of a "quantum protection component supplier." The good news is that this experiment proved the anchor can transfer loads on old structures; the bad news is that its construction process still relies on manual welding, on-site grinding, and individual flaw detection, with no publicly available complete load reports on node ductility and fatigue verification. The harsh rule in construction is: passing lab tests does not mean it can withstand a century of weathering. The market prefers general contractors who "can produce drawings, calculate quantities, and guarantee construction quality meets acceptance standards," not subcontractors who "can do experiments."
Therefore, in the annotation column of this drawing, I wrote in bold red: this is not an addition, it is temporary support; if the support is not removed, the new building's pile foundation can never be driven down. #starkwarequantumbtcJust now, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole, and the market originally expected a more accommodative signal, but the result was clearly less dovish. His core point is simple: if inflation continues to stay above the 2% target, the Fed will need to keep tightening policy, and may even raise interest rates. He also believes the current financial environment is not as tight as imagined. After his speech, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and expectations for the next rate hike at the next meeting have clearly increased. This is actually an uncomfortable signal for crypto. Because in the past few days, $BTC has surged to $80K, driven by strong liquidity and risk appetite. But now: $BTC: about $79.6K $ETH: about $2,505 $XRP: about $1.42 $SOL: around $105 BTC just surged to around $81.3K, but now has fallen back below $80K. So tonight, what we really want to see isn't whether "Warsh is a hawk." It's already very clear. The real question is: Will the market interpret this speech as—that high interest rates might last longer? If the answer is yes, then the first to be under pressure will definitely be high-beta assets. In other words, BTC might just be pulling back; $SOL, $HYPE, memes, and small-cap offcuts will actually be more sensitive. But I don't think this means the bull market is over. The reason is simple: BTC has come far from its lows, and the market naturally needs a shakeout of leverage and profit-taking. And recently, crypto funds have also been unevenWash is going to speak at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.
The theme of this year's meeting is "Financial Innovation," discussing long-term topics like payments and technological changes, unrelated to the September interest rate decision. Wash himself said that what he talks about "is not forward guidance," clearly indicating he won't be sending signals to the market. In his first 100 days in office, he has been downplaying this kind of expectation management, so don't expect any spoilers from him tonight.
So why is the Fed holding firm on not cutting rates? On the surface, it's to firmly defend the 2% inflation target, but the real data is clear—July's PCE price index rose 3.7% year-over-year, core PCE rose 3.3%, hovering above the target line for 65 consecutive months. It's still far from 2%, so how could the Fed dare to ease?
Cutting rates can indeed save interest, reduce costs, and stimulate the economy; everyone understands that. But once rates are cut, inflation surges faster than anything else, making the past year-plus of tightening efforts go to waste. So as long as the data doesn't come down, rate cuts are a false proposition.
This recent rally in the crypto space has little to do with rate cut expectations. $BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 8 consecutive days, with over $3 billion coming in August, pushing Bitcoin back to $80,000. BlackRock's IBIT alone took more than 60% of the share, showing very concentrated capital inflows.
This is more about capital looking for an outlet—the profit effect in US tech stocks still exists but is diminishing; even Nvidia's 8% rise didn't lift the market. Smart money is starting to move to lower-valued areas, either betting on a policy shift or switching venues to keep playing.
$ETH #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $ENA continued yesterday's upward momentum, with a 24-hour peak increase of nearly 25%, reaching $0.189. Over the past ten days, ENA started from around $0.08, accumulating a gain of over 130%, becoming the most outstanding "star" in the recent market.
This surge originated from four structural reforms announced by the Ethena Foundation on August 27. The two core reforms are: first, repurchasing all locked tokens held by early VCs and canceling the monthly unlock schedule, replacing it with a one-time release in October, completely ending the long-standing "selling pressure shadow" hanging over the market; second, initiating a governance vote proposing that after USDe supply reaches $7.5 billion, 95% of the protocol's net income be used for programmatic repurchase of ENA, transforming the token from a pure governance tool into an "interest-bearing asset" capable of capturing protocol cash flow.
The market has voted with price, reflecting recognition of this "positive flywheel" logic—USDe expansion drives revenue growth, revenue drives repurchase, repurchase boosts token price, and token price in turn supports the ecosystem. However, amid the celebration, risks are also clearly visible: the daily RSI has reached an overbought zone of 78, with price retreating over 10% from the intraday high; the pulse selling pressure from the concentrated October unlock has yet to materialize; the activation of the fee switch requires USDe supply to nearly double from the current $4 billion. In the contract market, long leverage is already crowded, and short-term correction pressure cannot be ignored.
Whether ENA's script can truly succeed depends on whether USDe can regain its expansion momentum. This experiment in tokenomics reconstruction may just be beginning.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
This guy Wash finally spoke up. Simply put—hawkish, but not hawkish enough to directly tell you whether there will be a rate hike in September. Inflation is his biggest concern, but when exactly to act, he leaves the market guessing.
First, inflation is the number one enemy. The core sentence in Wash's speech is: if underlying inflation does not clearly and quickly fall back to the 2% target, "we still have work to do." He completely dismisses recent PCE and CPI data, bluntly stating "these data have not told me that the underlying trend has shown meaningful improvement."
Second, completely scrap forward guidance. He worries about the "mirror hall effect"—the market guesses the Fed, the Fed watches market pricing, both influence each other, making it hard to see the real economy clearly. His exact words: "Market participants should not primarily focus on the Fed to make their next trade."
Third, the economy is strong, financial conditions are not tight. Wash believes the U.S. economy "seems to have strengthened," with resilience in consumer spending, business investment, and the labor market. He clearly states it is hard to describe current financial conditions as "restrictive."
How did the market react? CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to nearly 55%, U.S. Treasury yields reversed in a V-shape, gold plunged about $100 in the short term, and Bitcoin dropped about 1%.
Pharaoh's one-sentence summary: Wash doesn't give you a clear answer, but he's already planted plenty of hawkish signposts! $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ The market’s verdict on Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech?
Hawkish — but not catastrophic.
The 2Y Treasury yield jumped from roughly 4.23% to 4.30%, signaling higher rate expectations.
Yet Nasdaq didn’t collapse.
Why?
NVIDIA just showed that AI demand remains incredibly strong:
$96.2B quarterly revenue, +106% YoY.
Data Center revenue: $89B, +117% YoY.
The message is becoming clearer:
AI fundamentals are strong.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies the key level battle
"$6.4 Billion Options Mega Expiry: Market Makers' Gamma Squeeze Behind the Failure of the Max Pain Point"
A massive $6.4 billion monthly options expiry across the network, with Bitcoin fiercely tugging near the $80,000 whole number level.
Strong spot buying directly broke through the $70,000 max pain point gravity, with a large volume of deep in-the-money call options pushing the price sharply higher.
Market makers, to avoid unilateral exposure risk, were forced into mechanical dynamic hedging—buying aggressively as price rose and quickly selling to close positions on pullbacks.
This forced chase-up and sell-off hedging mechanism directly amplified intraday volatility, pushing the long-short battle around the key level to the extreme.
After settlement, the short-term hedging constraints were fully released, and the focus of large capital battles has shifted in line with September's macro liquidity and interest rate pricing. $BTC AI narratives are changing protagonists; shovels have sold enough, now let's see who can actually dig up gold
Looking at the AI earnings season, a clear shift is happening—hardware remains solid, but capital has started flowing into software
Palantir's revenue surged 93%, Snowflake's product revenue rose 57%, and Cloudflare's AI traffic surpassed 50% for the first time. Goldman Sachs split AI beneficiary stocks into hardware and software groups, with the AI software basket rising 31.3% this year, outperforming the hardware group's 25.8%. The market is showing its stance with real money
My judgment: The AI logic hasn't collapsed; it has shifted from "buying shovels" to "looking at output"
Hardware sells tools, software sells revenue. Palantir's AIP platform helps enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency, with client data directly reflected in financial statements, strengthening renewal willingness. The market has moved past the stage of "who has GPUs is the strongest" and started asking "how much money did you actually make with GPUs?"
Indirectly positive for $BTC
The overall profitability quality of the US tech sector is improving, naturally favoring an upward trend. Bitcoin, as the ultimate expression of risk assets, will not be absent from this revaluation. But those "AI narrative projects" in the crypto space—products that rely solely on concepts and storytelling without real revenue—will be rapidly eliminated. Capital is smart and will flow to projects that can prove they can survive.
Strategy: Focus on mid-term AI application layer projects, avoid pure concepts. The direction is clear; good opportunities come to those who wait.
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 1. Three forces have propelled Bitcoin to new heights
This surge is not a single story. It is the resonance of three forces at the same point in time.
The first force is called "policy optimism." On August 20, Trump met with executives from crypto companies like Coinbase and Payward at the White House, publicly urging Congress to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act). The core of this bill is to define whether cryptocurrencies are securities or commodities and clarify the regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. On the same day, the US SEC also proposed exempting some digital asset issuances from securities registration requirements.
Once the news broke, Bitcoin surged over 11% in a single day, and Ethereum rose more than 19%. Regulation shifted from "crackdown" to "embrace"—probably the most appealing narrative the crypto community has heard.
But the problem is, the bill is still stuck in the Senate. This rally reflects expectations, not reality.
The second force is called "the dollar is crying." On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks to $4 billion each time. The market interpreted this as disguised easing, and the dollar weakened accordingly. The "currency devaluation trade" reignited. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold soared to the highest since the pandemic, making the "digital gold" narrative incredibly attractive overnight.
The third force is called "the money really arrived." Short liquidations were just the fuse—$2.7 billion in short positions liquidated ignited the first wave of gains. But what truly sustained the rally was institutional capital stepping in. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows exceeding $2.6 billion over the past eight trading days; the Ethereum spot ETF also had nine consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $1.42 billion. BlackRock even lowered the Bitcoin ETF conversion threshold from $25 million to $1 million, handling over $5 billion in direct conversions alone.
Shorts were liquidated, institutions took over—the move is not just a simple "short squeeze," but real money providing support. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC
As shown in the chart, the golden pits that have successfully confirmed the BTC cycle bottoms are in 2018 and 2022, four years apart. The current golden pit in 2026 is also exactly four years apart...
But if we calculate the drop from the first weekly candle after the golden pit to BTC's ATH price, we find:
During the first two golden pits, even though there was a major weekly-level rebound, the drop from the relative high still exceeded 50%, specifically 74% in April 2019 and 69% in January 2023...
Here's the interesting part: although the golden pits appear every four years, the first two golden pits actually emerged at the beginning of the following year, which corresponds to early 2027 now...
It seems that whether from the time perspective or the price drop perspective, this golden pit appeared half a year early, which indeed raises some doubts...
However, I think this is easy to explain, since the current market is not like before; a shorter and shallower bear market is a sign of an asset gradually maturing;
Unless this is not a golden pit...
I won’t think too much about what comes next, overthinking might make me exit prematurely...
Once the bull market truly arrives, you should decisively throw your brain away...
Unless BTC still can’t break through 83k in two weeks, only then will I consider the pessimistic side of this chart...
Until then, patiently wait for a complete technical breakout!The US stock market closed on August 27 presented a textbook counterintuitive case: Nvidia's Q2 revenue was $96.2 billion, a year-on-year surge of 106%. The financial figures themselves were sound, but the stock price fell 1.59% that day—the "good news fulfilled as bad news" played out again in the AI sector. On the same day, the seven tech giants showed mixed results: Apple +1.15%, Meta +1.07%, Microsoft +0.95%, while Google fell 1.23%, Tesla 1.26%, and Amazon 0.30%. There was clear internal divergence within the sector, not a broad upswing. Looking at the five tokens competing in this trading competition, this divergence is actionable: NVIDIA "cooled after earnings were delivered" for NVDAx, and TSLAx followed Tesla's "market sentiment decline," following two different logics; SPCXx (SpaceX) is currently priced at $142.08, 24 hours +1%, and its correlation with listed large-cap tech stocks is already weaker, with relatively independent trends; GOOGLx and AAPLx correspond to Google's concerns over capital expenditure and Apple's expectations for a new product cycle, respectively, representing two completely different driving logics. The core of cross-market synergy is not "copying the same direction," but clearly seeing which stock's current news line corresponds to. During earnings season, during this period of divergence, blindly thinking "all AI stocks should rise" or "all should fall" is the easiest to be proven wrong. Combined with the intraday session (21:30-04:00 UTC+8) rules, the divergence of these days itself provides excellent material for live market review.The "involution game" between $ETH staking and Gas fees: 2,500 is exactly the liquidation warning line for many institutions staking ETH (a drop to 2,200-2,300 would trigger a chain redemption). Meanwhile, network Gas fees are sluggish, and the daily burn amount is insufficient to offset issuance, putting ETH in a slight inflationary state. This weakens the "deflation narrative," but below 2,500, long-term believers continue to buy the dip based on "POS yield," creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
· "Exchange rate anchoring" to BTC: The current ETH/BTC rate hovers around 0.031-0.032. The absolute price of 2,500 essentially represents the "fair value" calculated as Bitcoin at 80,000 USD × exchange rate 0.03125. As long as Bitcoin fluctuates near 80,000, Ethereum will be passively anchored at 2,500. To strengthen independently, the exchange rate must break above 0.033.
In the short term, 2,500 is a "weak equilibrium point." A breakout upward requires Bitcoin to hold above 82,000 and the exchange rate to rise to 0.033; a breakdown downward requires attention to the strong support zone at 2,200-2,300.
Around 2,500, it is best to wait and see. If volume breaks below 2,450, one can wait to buy in batches near 2,300; if volume breaks above 2,550 and holds, light long positions can be taken with a target of 2,800. Heavy bets on direction are not recommended currently, as volatility may expand at any time.If this round is really a bear-to-bull transition, the least necessary thing to do now is to panic because you missed the initial opportunity.
If you didn't accumulate chips at the bottom and see some altcoins already starting to move, many people's first reaction is to rush to buy, fearing that waiting another day will mean completely missing the boat. But the most interesting part of the cycle market is here: the first phase of the rise is responsible for restoring confidence, and the real large-scale trend often requires a pullback to complete the chip exchange.
Look at the trends in 2019 and 2023; after the bear market ended, the market didn't just go straight up—there were very painful retracements in between. Especially after the market has moved away from the bottom for a while, it is more likely to experience a relatively deep correction, leaving room for re-bottoming and turnover later.
So not getting on board now doesn't mean you've missed the entire cycle.
This round has only just recently come out of the bottom. If it develops according to similar past rhythms, there is still plenty of time to observe and wait.
The most important thing now is not to rush to make up for missed positions, but to keep your position and cash for real opportunities.
If the market continues to rise later, then wait for the trend to become clearer; if there is a large pullback midway, that will actually be a window for missed funds to re-enter.
The biggest fear in trading is not missing out on the first phase of profit, but liquidating the remaining chips all at once at the peak of emotion in an attempt to recover the first phase's gains.
Not buying at the bottom doesn't mean you don't qualify to benefit from the bull market.
Before the real main upward wave starts, the market usually gives you a chance to choose again.$BTC macro outlook at a “crossroads”: 80,000 is an accurate reflection of the current macro sentiment—Wash hawkishness (bearish) suppresses the price, but the market also expects the rate cut cycle to eventually arrive (bullish), with both forces evenly matched. No one dares to act rashly; everyone is waiting for the September inflation data or the Federal Reserve meeting to provide clear guidance. Therefore, before the data is released, the price naturally oscillates repeatedly around 80,000.
· Miners and institutions cost game: It is estimated that the shutdown price for the new generation of mining machines is around 52,000-55,000, while the OTC premium remains firm. For institutions, below 80,000 is a highly attractive mid-to-long-term accumulation zone; but for short-term traders, chasing above 80,000 is not cost-effective. This divergence in perception causes the price to be hammered when it approaches 82,000 and to attract buying when it falls below 78,000.
Strategy reference for you:
It is recommended to reduce trading frequency near 80,000 to avoid being stopped out repeatedly. If the price can break above 82,000 with increased volume, it can be seen as a short-term bullish signal; conversely, if it falls below 78,000, it may test strong support at 72,000-74,000. Until then, remain patient and wait for a clear direction.The voting results for the two major on-chain proposals of Solana are out. The double inflation proposal passed smoothly, but the proposal to increase burn fees did not meet the threshold and was rejected. One good and one bad; many only see the halving benefit and overlook the potential impact of the rejection. ✅ Passed: Double Deflation Proposal - SOL inflation rate directly reduced to half of the original - Over the next 6 years, about 18.9 million fewer new SOL tokens will be issued - Supply contraction, improving token inflation pressure in the mid to long term, a solid fundamental positive ❌ Not Passed: Resource-Fee Proposal (did not get 2/3 votes) The original goal of this proposal: charge fees based on resource consumption, increasing daily SOL burn from the current 650 tokens to 7,500–9,000 tokens, greatly accelerating deflation. Because it did not reach the 2/3 support threshold, it was declared a failure. Key points: Inflation reduction is implemented, but the expectation of a large burn is dashed. The market had partially priced in the double deflation expectation, now only half the scenario remains. 📊 Market logic breakdown 1. The positive is real: fewer new issuances, long-term circulation supply pressure decreases, providing underlying support for SOL. 2. But don’t be blindly euphoric: the market’s expectation of "several thousand tokens burned daily" was not realized, this part of the expectation disappears, posing a short-term risk of positive news being sold off. 3. SOL has already seen a significant rebound this round, with a notable short-term increase; with the news implemented, beware of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." 🎯 SOL key price level - Resistance: 114 $BTC
The most interesting reaction now is in the US Treasury bonds: the 30-year yield is falling, the 10-year is fluctuating, and the 2-year is rising.
This indicates that while rate hikes are being priced in, the long end is voting in favor by rising. Previously, Wall Street representatives Bassett and Wash, along with teacher Druckenmiller, spoke out to express this view.
So, the doubling repurchase bullet that Bassett said would be fired on September 9 hasn't actually been fired yet, but the long end has already come down, which means the market side has verified that a real rate hike won't trigger the bond market. This means bold rate hikes can happen in September.
It also indirectly proves that Bassett and Wash are playing a tacit game.
Next, keep an eye on:
September 4: August Nonfarm Payrolls
September 10: August PPI
September 11: August CPI
September 15-16: FOMC
The probability of rate hikes will gradually increase until the hike is implemented. The script is already written; let's watch as it unfolds Demand for Bitcoin put options is declining as traders are betting on further upside. Bitcoin has quickly rebounded and is approaching $80,000 again, with the options market starting to emit more bullish signals. Open interest in options contracts has risen in sync with BTC prices, now nearing 550,000 BTC, indicating a clear recovery in derivatives market capital and participation. Meanwhile, the DVOL index has sharply rebounded to around 41, showing renewed demand for volatility, though it remains significantly below the previous high volatility range of 50 to 60+, so the market is not yet in an extreme state. From the options structure perspective, skew across all maturities has noticeably narrowed, with short-term skew even turning negative, implying that demand for downside protection is decreasing and positions are gradually shifting toward a more balanced or even bullish stance. After BTC broke through $70,000, it has now entered a dense gamma zone between $75,000 and $80,000. Recent option capital flows have mainly concentrated near $72,500 and $79,250 strike prices, with clear call option buying at both strikes, while put option demand remains relatively limited, showing traders are betting on further BTC gains. Overall, BTC's rebound is driving continuous repair of option market positioning, reducing downside protection demand, strengthening call option capital flows, and although volatility has risen, it remains at a relatively moderate level; if the upward momentum continues, there is still room for further growth in the options market $BTC #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $TRUMP spot circulation exceeded 100 million today, contract circulation exceeded 1 billion, once the supply is sold out, liquidity will drop by 90%, blindly chasing highs is not advisable, invest cautiously, and don't forget that Trump's cryptocurrency advisor is Justin SunBTC had just stabilized above 80,000, and on the counterfeit side, some people were already walking a tightrope on the edge of liquidation. Guess what the most excited people on the entire internet yesterday are doing today? I watched the market until midnight last night and saw a very real price trajectory: Bitcoin reached 80,400, Ethereum was only 2,508. But just over ten hours ago, Ethereum was still that uncontrollable strong asset; someone immediately put all positions at 2539, excited as if it was about to take off at any moment. But in less than four minutes, the price was pushed near the liquidation line. It wasn't a slow decline, but a close move close to your lifeline, forcibly closing positions just a dozen points away. Finally, it dropped to 2580, barely recovering a bit of weak health. What I want to talk about isn't who lost or profited, but rather the speed at which sector strength shifts has exceeded most people's reaction radius. Let's start with the phenomenon. - Ethereum's strength yesterday was essentially due to catch-up expectations fermenting and funds seeking flexibility during Bitcoin's hesitation period. - Today, when Bitcoin surged while Ethereum weakened, this wave shows this wave is not a broad-based rally but a trade-off between sectors. Now, what is the market trading? Bitcoin surged to 80,400, which looks like a breakout on the surface, but the more critical factor is the option expiry time. The battle near the threshold has been amplified; the price is not driven purely by sentiment but by derivatives contracts forcing you to choose a direction. Ethereum's weakness is not due to fundamental problems, but because its leveraged trading is too crowded; a slight backward stamp is much harsher than Bitcoin's. Here's a point that people might overlook: sector strength and weakness#Revolut launches euro stablecoin EURR
Revolut has launched the euro stablecoin EURR to about 2 million customers in Denmark, Poland, and Portugal. Issued by Bridge under Stripe, the Luxembourg entity holds a MiCA license and backs the reserves 1:1 with euro cash. It will first launch on Ethereum and expand to multiple chains such as Solana and Arbitrum within the year. Revolut says this is just the "first step" and plans to launch other fiat stablecoins later.
The timing is very sharp—after August 31, Revolut will convert the remaining USDT of European customers into base currency. USDT has been pushed out by MiCA, and EURR fits perfectly to fill the gap. Revolut has 80 million global customers and 16 million crypto users, but the euro’s market share is negligible; Circle’s EURC circulation is only 400 million euros. If Revolut can convert just a small portion of its existing users, it can directly rewrite the market landscape of euro stablecoins.
However, one detail is worth noting— the EURR code has already been stigmatized after StablR was hacked and de-pegged. Although these are products from two completely different issuers, ordinary users may not distinguish them when searching.
With a compliant channel and built-in distribution, this is a card that neither Circle nor Tether can claim. The euro stablecoin track finally has a player that can truly change the landscape.SOL breaks through $110, Schwab is about to open the gate, why is this institutional buying different this time?
Solana today surpassed the $110 mark, reaching a new high since January this year. The cumulative net inflow of spot ETFs has exceeded $1.32 billion, with a single-day purchase hitting an annual peak of $60.91 million.
But what really deserves close attention is not the price increase, but the qualitative change in the buying structure.
Bitwise's BSOL fund asset size was the first to break through the $1 billion mark, accounting for nearly 80% of the entire market's ETF inflows. This highly concentrated chip accumulation means that the spot has not flowed to retail investors ready to sell at any time, but has been locked into underlying custody by compliant institutions in a closed form.
An even more significant catalyst is yet to come: Charles Schwab is about to integrate Solana into its Schwab Crypto product line, directly opening a configuration channel to nearly 40 million brokerage accounts under its umbrella.
40 million accounts are equivalent to twice the number of Coinbase's U.S. users. Once this compliant channel is opened, a massive amount of traditional middle-class funds that have never directly accessed the blockchain will be able to buy SOL with one click in their own stock accounts for the first time.
From professional hedge funds to a nationwide brokerage channel, this upgrade in capital dimension is vastly different from the usual pure capital rotation and altcoin speculation.
Facing the expectation of Schwab's 40 million accounts entering the market, do you think SOL can leverage this momentum to embark on an institutional bull run independent of the broader market?In the past, the Federal Reserve often provided a path and conditions for rate cuts, giving everyone ample expectations. Now it seems they are waiting to see how the market reacts instead of catering to the market to create consensus? So what will the subsequent market trend be?
Your understanding hits the nail on the head. This is precisely the most fundamental shift in the Fed's communication style this time: from the past "nanny-style forward guidance" back to a more classical "black-box data-driven" approach.
1. The Past (Bernanke/Yellen/Powell era): What is "nanny-style guidance"?
In the past decade or so (especially from the 2008 subprime crisis to the Powell era), the Fed heavily relied on forward guidance to manage market expectations:
Clear path given: Through the quarterly Dot Plot, directly telling Wall Street, "We expect 3 rate cuts this year, 4 next year, and the terminal neutral rate will be around 2.5%."
Clear conditions (Thresholds): Explicitly setting indicator red lines, such as "As long as unemployment stays below 4.5% and inflation falls below 2.5%, we will cut rates by 25 basis points each time on schedule."
Catering to the market's "Fed Put": Whenever Wall Street crashes or liquidity tightens, Fed officials would "dovishly reassure" in subsequent public speeches, feeding the market the rescue script in advance, fearing a financial market stampede.
Result: The market got used to being "fed," accustomed to front-running and pricing Fed actions 3 to 6 months ahead. Spot/low leverage buying on dips is recommended!
Upward driving factors
1. US Treasury repo restart triggers "currency depreciation trade"
The direct trigger for this rebound is the US Treasury's announcement on August 19 to at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repos to $4 billion each time, which the market interprets as implicit easing, pushing the US dollar weaker. Both cryptocurrencies and gold have benefited—Bitcoin has risen over 20% since August 19, and gold has increased about 14% in August.
2. Continuous large-scale inflows into ETFs
The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows for eight consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net inflow of over $2.6 to $2.8 billion. On August 28 alone, the net inflow reached $238 million. However, Fidelity's FBTC recorded an outflow of $83.6 million on the same day, indicating some divergence among institutions.
3. Institutional buying replaces short squeeze
The early stage of this rally was driven by over $2.7 billion in short liquidations, followed by active institutional buying. Bitcoin quotes on Coinbase relative to Binance have reappeared at a premium for the first time in about three months, indicating a return of US institutional capital allocation.$OKB current price 112, -1.38%. In the short term, I am bearish, characterizing this as a pullback washout after failing to break 120, not the start of a new trend. In recent days, spot volume has continuously shrunk from a high level, contract open interest (OI) has also fallen about 1.3%, but the funding rate remains positive; 24-hour long liquidations are about 140,000, while shorts are almost unaffected, indicating that the bulls are actively retreating, and the selling pressure is not a healthy turnover after a short squeeze. Contract data
Operation: Do not buy at 112, reduce positions first, wait for a bottom near 110 before considering a low buy. The first support is 110, strong support/bull-bear boundary is 105–106; the first resistance is 115, only consider 120 if volume increases and it stabilizes above. Breaking below 105 shifts to a downtrend structure, next target is 100. BTC risk appetite remains, but OKB is clearly underperforming, don’t use the strong market to justify bullish reasons for it. Precisely because Wash's hawkish speech this time is a medium-to-long-term negative factor, there is no rush for an immediate short-term drop. This is not a violent deleveraging sell-off like when the storage trio led by SK Hynix maxed out leverage and overdrew funds in a very short time, but rather a slow tightening of funds like boiling a frog in warm water.
Moreover, the market was previously most worried about fiscal discipline breakdown and long-term interest rates spiraling out of control. After Wash hinted at a rate hike in September, the market actually felt reassured, which is the reason for some slight rises in certain benchmarks.
Just now, the different interest rate performances of the 2/10/30-year US Treasury bonds precisely prove that the current policy mix is Wash lifting the short end and Bassett suppressing the long end. So for stocks, today is not purely a rate hike negative, but a short-end negative + long-end positive + earnings fundamentals positive.
As for operations, the same advice: orderly withdrawal from risk assets, a leading pattern is forming, don’t wait until the drop is over to chase shorts. After the 9.16 FOMC meeting rate hike, once the negative factors are fully priced in, you can go long (of course, there is also a golden pit to enter before that).
PS: The probability of a September rate hike has just increased by 2 points #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Short-term view after Wash's speech
Wash spoke punctually at 22:00, and the content was relatively balanced. The main focus remains on the stability of inflation indicators PCE and CPI. This was interpreted as a signal for a rate hike, which also supports the market's increased probability of a September rate hike.
However, if we carefully look at the 5-minute candlestick chart, it is clear that after 22:00 to 22:15, the detailed price movements of major coins like ETH and ENA show that the market is not buying in. See the details in the chart. If it were an extremely hawkish and risk-averse scenario, the 15-minute candlestick chart of ETH would have already shown continuous declines breaking below 2400, but in fact, the price remains steady as a rock, so we can ignore whether Wash's speech was good or bad.
Just answer two questions to place an order:
1. What is the current market condition and direction?
Although the market is not a bull market, it is a period of very positive sentiment. The direction is upward.
2. What stage is the market currently in?
The main upward phase from the 19th to the 24th has passed. The recent 4 days have seen high-level consolidation, undergoing one full consolidation and one rapid consolidation. Now it has entered the third stage of consolidation. If this is the final consolidation phase, then now is the time to enter.
I am looking at the 5-minute charts of ETH and BTC!
Therefore, I have quickly opened positions in trump, ENA, and XRP.
Stop loss is set at the lowest point of the 5-minute candlestick, using ETH as the main reference at 2461. As long as it breaks below here, all positions will be fully closed.Stock trading emphasizes "volume-price coordination," while in the crypto world, it's all about "sentiment coordination," but sentiment is the most unreliable factor.
I tried using the stock market's "right-side trading" approach, only to find that being even slightly late gets you hit; the crypto market flips faster than turning a page.
So now I use "left-side small orders to test the waters," buying a little as it dips, but keeping the total position to one-third of what I'd hold in stocks.
In stocks, I'm willing to add to losing positions, but in crypto, adding can be like throwing money into a bottomless pit, so I only add once; if it drops further, I accept the loss.
The news impact is ten times crazier than in stocks; a fake screenshot can make $BTC plunge thousands of points instantly.
My strategy is to clear half my position before major data releases; I'd rather miss out than gamble.
I set take-profit just three ticks below the previous high; once reached, I exit without greed for the last bit.
The stock market taught me patience to wait for trends; crypto taught me to act decisively—cut losses without hesitation.
I only trade $ETH spot swing trades; no matter how much others rise, I don't look at them, same principle as avoiding ST stocks back in the day.
Leverage? Even stock margin trading makes me uneasy; in crypto, don't even think about it.
Final iron rule: invest only spare money, no borrowing, no all-in; staying alive means there's a next round.
(Approx. 250 words, $ appears twice) #Will Walsh debut at Jackson Hole tonight, can he clarify the policy framework?
The boss has something to say
Walsh's speech landed, but the market didn't get the answers it wanted.
At 10 PM Beijing time on Friday, Walsh delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, titled "The Era We Are In." Listening through the whole speech, there was only one feeling: he said nothing, yet said everything.
Three key points
First, abandon forward guidance. Walsh clearly stated that forward guidance should be limited in normal times to avoid overcommitting to future interest rate paths. He said forward guidance has "overstayed its welcome." Previously, Fed chairs used Jackson Hole speeches to hint at the next steps; he used this speech to explain why he won't give direction. The reason is that when traders make decisions based on Fed hints rather than economic data, everyone sees a distorted picture. He calls this the "hall-of-mirrors problem."
Second, the 2% inflation target remains unchanged. He emphasized that the 2% inflation target is a "fixed and clear goal," "steadfast and unchangeable." The current policy focus should be on price stability.
Third, inflation is still high, and there is work to do. He said PCE and CPI data were better than expected but "did not make me believe that the underlying inflation trend has meaningfully improved." The standard is "we must be confident that core inflation is clearly moving toward the 2% target at a sufficiently fast pace. Otherwise, we still have work to do." The overall economy is strong, with capital expenditures growing about 9% year-over-year, the highest since 2021, S&P 500 earnings up over 20% year-over-year, and unemployment at a historic low of 4.1%. But PCE is 3.7% year-over-year, well above 2%.
Market reaction: hawkish but direction unclear
CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike rose from 36% before the speech to about 50%. The two-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 4.31%. Gold plunged $50 briefly to around $4560. The dollar strengthened. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell then rose, with the S&P basically flat. Bitcoin dropped about 0.89% to around 78,620, ETH fell about 1.3% to 2,477.
Why the market got no direction
The core of Walsh's entire speech was one sentence: I will not tell you the next step. The market wants a clear policy framework; he gave a "commitment to a policy discipline, not a specific policy decision."
For the crypto market, this is precisely the most troublesome outcome. Bitcoin rallied from 64,000 to above 81,000, the short squeeze ended, options just expired, and the market needs new catalysts to confirm direction. Walsh not giving direction means the market has to find its own way amid uncertainty.
Trading operations
Long Bitcoin at 78,500 and above 80,000 have been exited; Ethereum longs from 2,480 to 2,520 also exited; short at 2,540 stopped out at 2,580, still holding. After tonight's speech landed, no direction was given, but rate hike expectations are heating up, short-term bias is bearish on risk assets. Continue holding shorts, target 2,450 to 2,470, stop loss unchanged at 2,580. Heavy positions wait for pullback confirmation before deciding, no rush to bet on direction. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is timely; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.$BTC This round of Bitcoin's rebound is reflected not only in price but also in how it links with traditional assets. Grayscale research shows that Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has risen above 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped to about 33%. This means the recent market has leaned more toward Bitcoin as a scarce macro asset rather than a highly volatile alternative to tech trading. However, whether this change will continue depends on subsequent price data, as rolling correlation changes with updated samples. During the rebound phase, correlation changes occur simultaneously, occurring during a period of strong Bitcoin gains this year. From August 17 to August 21, BTC rose from about $62,679 to $79,500, a 4-day increase of about 27%. Factors driving this round of gains include adjustments in U.S. Treasury repurchase operations, a weaker dollar, short positions being closed, and a rebound in institutional demand. After improved market liquidity, long-term yield pressures have eased, providing support for alternative assets. ETF funds continue to flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, further reinforcing this rebound. Coinpaper cited data stating that as of August 27, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $242.3 million that day, marking nine consecutive trading days of net inflows. On August 27, a single-day net inflow of $242.3 million continued to be observed 🎽In my opinion, tonight's speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is meant to signal that the worst of the negative news is over, or the "boot has dropped." The subsequent market movement usually unfolds in three stages:
First, an instant oversold rebound. When the negative news is realized, the last batch of panic sellers exit, creating a vacuum in selling pressure. Prices quickly recover, with previously oversold quality assets showing the greatest elasticity. This rebound💎From August 17 to August 21, and August 24 to August 28
During these two weeks of trading days, data shows that Bitcoin had the largest single-week dollar increase in history (a weekly rise of $14,700)
With an increase of over 23%. Although a 23% weekly gain sounds crazy, most of the feeling from this rise is like a classic short squeeze
This week Bitcoin reached a high of $81,000, but the market did not provide any particularly positive news
The only possibility is that short covering gradually pushed the price higher. This is not hard to see on the candlestick chart
According to order flow data: open interest contracts began to rebuild, and leverage started to reshape
But the real question is, once leverage falls back or is liquidated again, can new spot demand truly support these levels
It's the weekend again, and personally I think the focus should be on:
Whether we will have a few days of boring sideways consolidation to establish real support?
Whether spot trading volume is sufficient to really support these prices, or if this rise was mainly just liquidation?
After such a rise, everyone is eager to predict new highs
But honestly, I’d rather see some calm price action first
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The Federal Reserve only has inflation in its sights, ignoring employment. Although the data isn't as alarming as last year, the overall situation has already cooled down and is heading towards a crash, yet they are still considering raising interest rates.
Truly a new official igniting three fires upon taking office. Walsh's choice is very clear: tackle inflation first, push employment issues to later, and now the probability of a rate hike has increased to 57%.
However, except for the metals sector, I haven't seen much reaction from tech or mainstream markets. I guess the market is completely unwilling to buy into this kind of empty talk. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？