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Late at night, after brewing a cup of strong tea and watching the candlesticks and numbers flicker on the screen, I happened to come across Musk's reply on X. Morgan Stanley had just painted a grand picture for SpaceX: predicting annual revenue would reach $3.5 trillion by 2040, maintaining an "overweight" rating and a $300 target price. But Morgan Stanley clearly didn't have the patience and casually replied: "We can break open this door around 2033." Seven years. Under the watchful nose of a veteran investment bank, they forcibly pulled the timeline ahead and moved it forward by a full seven years. Veterans who have played the capital markets for a few years know that investment banks' Excel models are always built on "stability," methodically calculating Louisiana's capacity expansion and how many trips Starship can make in a year. But Musk is looking at exponential curves. This seven-year time difference hides three deadly chips: Starship's commercialization of the dimensionality reduction strike, Starlink's monopolistic global cash flow, and most speculative—the shift of AI computing power into space. Just imagine, local tech giants are still fiercely competing for power and cooling (like Google40BAnHydropicBet's sky-high gamble, or traditional mining companies rushing to transform in CryptoMinersGoAI). What if SpaceX directly turned low-earth orbit satellites into orbital computing nodes? This isn't science fiction; it's the harshest cost logic. Let's look at the stocks we hold. US stocks TokBTC briefly surged to around $81,600 but then quickly pulled back, now repeatedly tugging around $79,600–$80,000. In the short term, $80,800–$81,800 has become a new resistance zone. To further open upward, this area must first be truly stabilized. There is another noteworthy change in this round of trading: 📌 BTC's linkage with gold is strengthening 📌; US government debt has surpassed $40T; 📌 Treasury expansion of long-term US Treasury repurchases—bond market liquidity issues are drawing renewed attention 📌; discussions about the dollar's purchasing power and fiscal pressure are heating up, and the narrative of scarce assets is regaining attention. However, this cannot yet be simply interpreted as a "full return of the bull market." The previous rally was driven not only by capital but also by clear short-covering factors. After the price surges, short-term profit-taking begins to increase, naturally amplifying market volatility. ⚠️ More importantly, after the Jackson Hole meeting, Walsh's remarks were interpreted by the market as hawkish. The latest market pricing shows that expectations for further rate hikes in September have clearly increased, with the probability rising from about 35% to about 60%, and BTC has dropped back to around $80,000. So the next focus is on two positions: 🟢 holding above $80,800 → has a chance to challenge $81,800 🔴 again; breaking below $79,000 → the high volatility may further expand 🟡 to $78,200–$78,Wash's hawkish speech directly ignited selling pressure. After the speech, the market raised the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to nearly 60%. The 2-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index surged. Bitcoin is a non-interest-bearing risk asset; as US Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin increases. Coupled with the previous continuous surge, the market has accumulated a large amount of long leverage, and the news triggered a chain liquidation of longs. Therefore, the short-term market (until the September 16 FOMC meeting) will be highly tied to US inflation PCE data. As long as the inflation data is strong, the shadow of a "September rate hike" will continue to suppress the coin price, causing more spikes and simultaneous long and short liquidations; if inflation falls, easing expectations will return, and BTC will then recover and rebound.
In the short term, the market is expected to continue to be under pressure and decline. For weekend operations, focus on the upper resistance level of 79,000 and the lower support at 75,500 for Bitcoin. For Ethereum, resistance levels are 2,485 and 2,530, with support at 2,350 and 2,240. #Wash emphasizes inflation risk, September rate hike expectations heat up $BTC $ETH Last night, Walsh said a lot, but to put it simply: if inflation doesn't head toward 2%, the Federal Reserve will have to keep working. The U.S. job market hasn't collapsed, and the economy is still holding up. AI investment is even strong. Interest rates of 3.5%–3.75% haven't clearly suppressed the economy, so naturally, the Fed has no reason to rush to pivot dovish. If inflation remains sticky like this, rate hikes will still be on the table.
Walsh has pushed back against the market's previous idea that "rate hikes are almost over." In the short term, this is definitely uncomfortable for U.S. stocks and BTC. When U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise, high-valuation tech stocks and the crypto space will both be pressured. But this time it's different from a recession-driven sell-off; the economy itself isn't bad, and Walsh is very optimistic about AI, so I think it's more about valuation cuts rather than logic cuts.
Going forward, just keep an eye on inflation and employment. If employment stays strong and inflation remains sticky, rate hike expectations won't come down; when inflation truly starts to drop noticeably, U.S. stocks and BTC will actually be the first to rally.Big Brother Maji continues to add to his long positions, but this time he is truly taking real losses.
According to TradingBeats monitoring, Huang Licheng's address currently still holds about 41,000 $ETH, valued at approximately $100 million, remaining one of the largest ETH long holders on-chain. As the market pulled back, he closed part of his ETH long position about 7 hours ago, incurring a loss of about $1.96 million.
Current main wallet holdings:
🔹 41,000 ETH: about $100 million
🔹 75,000 HYPE: about $6.03 million
🔹 45 BTC: about $3.5 million
Previously it was reducing positions to take profits; this time it directly turned into a stop loss.
This also highlights a very realistic issue: even on-chain whales cannot profit every time. When the market pulls back, leveraged longs must bear real losses.
Therefore, whale holdings can serve as observation signals but are by no means guaranteed profitable copy-trading indicators.
#BTC high-level long-short tug-of-war #Gold linkage strengthens #Charles Schwab plans to add SOL, AVAX, and LINK
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Elon Musk responds to Morgan Stanley, $3.5 trillion revenue may be achieved seven years early
Latest data
Morgan Stanley predicts SpaceX could achieve $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2040. Musk publicly responded that, relying on the accelerated implementation of Starlink, Starship, humanoid robots, and AI businesses, the goal could be reached by 2033. Market prices: $BTC 77660, ETH 2432, SOL $103.5. Overall sentiment is cautious, with grand narratives only slightly boosting risk appetite.
Market consensus
Some funds view this statement as a super long-term positive, with the space + AI sectors' imagination space fully opened; but most traders believe the time span is too long, and any variable in capacity, commercialization, or policy could cause the goal to be hard to realize. It can only be treated as a story catalyst, not substantive performance.
Underlying logic analysis
Essentially, this is a long-term vision bet. Musk is not presenting already landed orders but optimistic assumptions about the growth rate of the entire business line. Such news is unlikely to bring immediate capital inflows, but rather gradually raise the market's tolerance for tech growth assets, indirectly supporting crypto market sentiment without directly driving the market.
Personal view (personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
The story is exciting enough but should not be used as a trading basis. Still focus only on hard indicators like liquidity, ETF funds, and macro policies. Do not impulsively increase positions because of long-term visions; hold the base positions well and rationally view thematic catalysts.SGP-0002 has passed. Token holders are smiling, stakers are crying.
Six hours before the vote ended, the approval rate was 65.4%, seemingly about to repeat the fate of SIMD-0228 in March 2025—back then, a 61.4% approval rate fell just short of the two-thirds threshold and failed.
Then Kraken made a move.
Its largest validator node, holding nearly 9 million SOL, was 100% against on Friday morning. At 10:37, it suddenly switched to 90.34% in favor. Galaxy also changed from 92% abstain to 58% in favor. In the last hour, over 90 validators rushed to vote.
176 million SOL voted in favor, 66.19 million against, 67% to 33%, just passing the line.
This was the first binding on-chain governance vote in Solana's history, and it passed by a narrow margin.
What was the cost?
Issuance of 18.9 million fewer SOL over the next six years—valued at about $2 billion at current prices. The time to reach 1.5% terminal inflation shortens from 5.7 years to 2.8 years.
SOL in holders’ hands becomes scarcer. In August, SOL rose 44%, hitting $106. The US spot Solana ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling $1.22 billion. Charles Schwab announced plans to add SOL to its trading platform.
On the surface, token holders win all.
But what about stakers?
The proposal author’s own forecast—staking yield drops from the current 5.8% to 2.2% by the third year. 21Shares’ model is more detailed: 4.34% in year one, 3% in year two, 2.25% in year three.
Out of 738 validators, 2 become unprofitable in year one, 13 in year two, 30 in year three.
The proposal author’s original words: “This income cut may force many staking operations to shut down.”
Solana’s current staking rate is 67.93%, twice that of Ethereum. Why? Because staking yields are high. Now yields are being cut by more than half.
A soul-searching question: If staking yields drop to 2.2%, will you still stake SOL?
Or will you withdraw SOL and put it into DeFi mining? Or just sell it?
SGP-0002 is a choice:
Do you want scarcer SOL, or higher staking yields?
$BTC $SOL $ETH #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 🔥$DOGE Is it now in a “bottom repair” phase or “range consolidation”? Let's talk about the logic of the “sentiment indicator”
$DOGE currently feels like “a story without performance”: the August rebound relied on regulatory expectations + X payment speculation + DOGE-1 satellite narrative + whale bottom-fishing, but the fundamentals remain the same old three — no total supply cap, about 5 billion new coins annually, driven by community and Musk sentiment.
Bullish reasons: price has recovered from the July low area, on-chain activity and whale addresses are returning, ETF inflows are small but no longer zero, and improved macro risk appetite will first lift beta assets.
Bearish reasons: obvious resistance at 0.09–0.10, August historically weak seasonally, institutional ETF size too small, X Money currently prioritizes fiat and has no clear integration with DOGE, Musk-related catalysts often “sound promising in advance but disappoint on delivery.”
Personally, I treat it as a “sentiment indicator” not a “value asset”: if it doesn’t break 0.067–0.069, there’s still a rebound narrative; if it can’t hold above 0.10, don’t talk about a main uptrend; if you want to invest, do so with a small position and set stop-losses, don’t go all-in on spot betting on Musk.
Do you think DOGE is in a bottom repair phase this round, or will it continue to oscillate between 0.08–0.10? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$DOGE 46% Rise in August, $1.2 Billion Inflow into ETF in Five Days: SGP-0002 is Igniting Solana's "Supply Shock" Narrative
In August, SOL started near $73 and once broke through $110, rising 46.9% in a single month. This ended a record of 10 consecutive months of decline.
The strongest monthly performance since March 2024.
The US spot Solana ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling $1.22 billion. On August 24 alone, $33.5 million flowed in, the largest single-day inflow in 2026.
Bitwise's BSOL—asset management scale surpassed $1 billion, becoming the first Solana ETF to reach this milestone. This one alone consumed 80% of the entire Solana ETF market's funds.
Institutions are not just testing the waters; they are sweeping up.
But this is only half the story.
The other half is at the code level—SGP-0002.
On August 28, Solana validators passed this proposal with 67% support, increasing the annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%.
Over the next six years, SOL issuance will decrease by about 18.9 million tokens, valued at approximately $1.4 to $1.5 billion. The time to reach a 1.5% terminal inflation rate is moved forward from 2032 to 2029.
On one side, supply is tightening; on the other, institutions are buying frantically.
A supply-demand scissors gap is forming.
But don't get too excited yet—
Reduced supply does not necessarily mean the price will rise. On the day the proposal passed, SOL was around $105 and actually dropped 1.2%. The market always prices in advance.
More importantly: validator staking rewards will decrease.
21Shares' model shows nominal staking yields dropping from about 5.25% to 4.34% in the first year, 3% in the second year, and 2.25% in the third year. Among 738 validators, 2 will turn unprofitable in the first year, and 30 in the third year.
If validators earn less, will they still be willing to stake? Who will guarantee network security?
Solana company (HSDT) voted against—reasoning that predictable staking rewards are needed. They earned $2.51 million from staking; suddenly cutting rewards would upset anyone.
SGP-0002 puts the "supply reduction" narrative on the table. ETF money is still flowing in. But whether the narrative holds depends on whether the Solana ecosystem can use transaction fees to compensate validators' losses.
If it can, the scarcity narrative of SOL is complete.
If not, this is just another "good news fully priced in" story.
$BTC $SOL $ETH #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 A sharp drop is the entry ticket!
Data is king!
It's still not too late to position long on ETH now!
78 $ETH long positions
Opening average price at 2357
Currently floating profit of 6410U
This wave is not a guess
Capital has long shown the answer
—
ETH spot ETF net inflow was $102.1 million yesterday
Farside details show
10 consecutive trading days of net inflow from August 17 to 28
Accumulated about $1.508 billion
Screenshot title says 12 consecutive days
But daily data confirms 10 consecutive trading days of positive inflow
This figure is more precise according to Farside data
Last night's decline was mainly due to Wash's hawkish stance
The market is re-pricing the risk of a September rate hike
US tech stocks retreated
Crypto followed, releasing leverage
More like a macro sentiment sell-off
Not a sudden problem with ETH's fundamentals
—
ETH contract open interest is $32.3 billion
24-hour liquidations about $94.62 million
Futures trading volume $44.3 billion
Far higher than spot trading volume of $2.6 billion
Indicates leverage positions still dominate volatility
2400 to 2410 is the first line of defense
Next support near 2350
As long as 2400 holds
Rebound target first at 2480
After breaking through, then test 2520 to 2560
Now is suitable for scaling in on pullbacks
Not suitable to chase highs on rebounds
—
BTC contract open interest is $54.17 billion
24-hour liquidations about $152 million
More importantly
Yesterday BTC spot ETF net outflow was $201.9 million
This is also a key reason why BTC is weaker than ETH
Watch if 77000 can hold first
If broken, look at 75500 to 76000
Above, 80000 is the first resistance
Then around 81500
BTC must retake 80000
Otherwise ETH's rebound won't be smooth
—
$OKB is not completely broken
More a retracement after a large prior gain
Around 108 is short-term support
Below, focus on 105
Above, 114.5 is first resistance
Only after breaking through is there a chance to challenge 120 again
OKB is naturally volatile
This level is good for small position testing
Don't go all in on one candle
—
$SNDK, though volatile
Fundamentals remain solid
Company Q4 revenue $8.965 billion
Sequential growth 51%
Data center revenue sequential growth 103%
Also plans to invest over $31 billion with Kioxia in Japan through 2032
Short-term support at 1437 and 1400
Resistance at 1516 and 1550
Long-term logic intact
But gains are already large
Waiting for pullbacks is more comfortable than chasing hard above 1500
—
This drop is due to hawkish news
BTC ETF outflows
Plus concentrated high-leverage liquidations
While ETH ETF funds continue to flow in
This is currently the strongest data
If 2400 holds
I continue to expect ETH to rebound to 2520
If strong, then test 2560
But 100x leverage is only for show
Not a template to follow
Remember to raise protection when profits appear
If 2350 really breaks, don't fight the market
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Once Waller spoke, the market began repricing interest rates.
What really unsettled the market tonight was that Waller loosened several key assumptions the market had heavily relied on recently.
Waller first gave a very strong economic assessment: the U.S. economy remains resilient, and the labor market is near full employment.
This means the Federal Reserve currently has little reason to tolerate higher inflation for the sake of employment.
Immediately after, he shifted the policy focus back to price stability.
July's PCE year-over-year is still as high as 3.7%, with core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year. Waller clearly stated that current data is insufficient to prove that underlying inflation has improved enough.
The most critical sentence was: if inflation does not return to 2% fast enough, the Fed still has work to do.
The market understood.
The probability of a rate hike in September quickly rose, 2-year Treasury yields jumped, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets began repricing accordingly.
So the scene tonight was very consistent: gold down, $BTC down, U.S. stocks down.
These assets seem completely different but share a common pricing chain behind them.
Recently, the market had bet on: inflation falling → rate hikes ending → interest rates declining → liquidity improving → high-valuation assets expanding again.
What Waller did tonight was push this chain back one step.
Moreover, he sent a longer-term signal.
Waller explicitly said the market should not always look to the Fed for the next trade, expressed a desire to reduce forward guidance, and leave unconventional monetary policy more for true crisis times.
This essentially tells the market: the habit of expecting the Fed to step in whenever asset prices fall needs to be recalibrated.
So tonight's decline, on the surface, looks like a hawkish speech.
Deeper down, the market is recalculating three things: whether there will still be a hike in September, how long rates will stay high, and how much the Fed Put is worth going forward.
Currently, the most important indicator to watch remains U.S. Treasuries.
If only the 2-year continues to reflect rate hike expectations while the 10-year holds steady, this is closer to a repricing of short-term policy rates.
If both the 2-year and 10-year rise rapidly and the dollar continues to strengthen, it becomes more complicated.
That would mean the market is simultaneously trading a more hawkish short end plus a rising long-term term premium.
This is the combination that will truly continue to suppress the Nasdaq, gold, and BTC.
So what Waller changed tonight is not just a one-day move.
He reminded the market again: as long as inflation hasn't truly returned to 2%, easing won't come so easily. This quote was seen by a friend, and he asked me, "Can you calculate the price drop from the historical high after the golden pit appears in each cycle?"
As shown in the picture, the golden pits that have been successfully confirmed to mark the BTC cycle bottoms are in 2018 and 2022, four years apart, and the current 2026 golden pit is also exactly four years apart...
But if we calculate the price drop from the ATH after the first weekly candle emerges from the golden pit, we find:
In the first two golden pits, even though there was a large weekly-level rebound, the drop from the relative high still exceeded 50%, specifically 74% in April 2019 and 69% in January 2023...
Here's the interesting part: although the golden pits appear every four years, the first two golden pits actually emerged at the beginning of the following year, which corresponds to early 2027 now...
And if we look at the "post-pit drop" values, this current golden pit seems somewhat out of place because the drop from the ATH is only about 37~39%...
It seems that from both the time and price drop perspectives, this golden pit appeared half a year early, which indeed raises some doubts...
However, I think this is easy to explain since the market now is not like before; the bear market becoming shorter and shallower is completely a sign of an asset gradually maturing;
Unless this is not a golden pit...
I won’t think too much about what comes next, thinking too much can easily make you get off halfway...
Once the bull market truly arrives, you should decisively throw your brain away...
Unless BTC still can’t break through 83k in 2 weeks, only then will I consider the pessimistic side of this chart...
Until then, patiently wait for a complete technical breakthrough!When trading stocks, I love watching the Dragon and Tiger List, following the hot money rush, but often end up stuck at the peak feeling the cold wind.
In the crypto world, it's even more direct: when a whale address moves, retail investors panic and follow, but actually, the whales are selling off.
I've learned my lesson and brought the stock market strategy of "building positions gradually on the left side" over here—only reaching out after a deep drop.
During that $BTC halving, I bought a little every 10% drop according to plan, and in the end, my average cost was quite low.
Don't believe in any "eternal bull market"; the Growth Enterprise Market was hyped like that in 2015, but later it crashed so hard even your own mother wouldn't recognize it.
Now I only watch two signals: the fear index and on-chain net inflow, which is used similarly to northbound funds in the stock market.
When $ETH surged, I actually reduced my position because the old stock market saying goes, "Huge volume, huge price."
I firmly avoid trading at night; I set stop-loss orders and go to sleep—this habit came from getting burned by night futures trading.
When the community shouts "bottom fishing," I wait; when they shout "crash," I watch—often doing the opposite works out.
Once I make money, I immediately take out half; pocketing profits is the real gain, account numbers are just virtual.
If I lose, I don't add positions; I wait for stabilization before moving again—don't follow that toxic advice of "buying more as it falls."
No matter how tempting $SOL gets, I only invest 10% according to discipline, never getting carried away.
Finally, just one sentence: The market punishes the disobedient. Control your hands, survive, and that's better than anything else.I still do not rule out the ability of on-chain indicators to identify the bottom of Bitcoin's price.
Here is a simple explanation.
On-chain indicators reflect investor behavior, and investor behavior is closely related to market cycles, periods of frenzy, and periods of fear.
There is one interesting thing I have been closely watching. I want to make it clear that this is not financial advice. This is just my personal opinion after analyzing a large amount of data.
I will use the MVRV Z-Score to better explain it.
2017 to 2018 cycle
1. In 2017, this indicator formed three major peaks before Bitcoin reached its all-time high.
2. After the ATH, Bitcoin dropped, and the indicator formed a bottom between approximately 0.25 and 1.16.
3. At that time, many did not expect another sharp drop. Then, in November 2018, Bitcoin plunged sharply to $3,180.
Latest bull market cycle
1. Between 2024 and 2025, the MVRV Z-Score also formed three peaks, although given the market has become more complex, these peaks were less frenzied.
2. After the ATH, Bitcoin dropped, and the indicator formed a bottom in the same region as in 2018.
3. Recently, the indicator moved upward, and Bitcoin followed. However, unlike in 2018, the MVRV Z-Score has not yet entered the negative region historically marking Bitcoin’s major price bottoms.
I have been fascinated by on-chain indicators for years, which is why we built an indicator library at Alphractal.
But the ongoing mental exercise I keep doing is this:
How likely is it that this indicator still needs to move further down, with Bitcoin’s price moving accordingly?
I will make a dedicated video showing why, from a purely on-chain perspective, the price bottom may not have arrived yet. To meet the conditions I am watching, Bitcoin will likely need to drop to at least $53,000 or lower.
I am questioning the data, not the current bullish narrative.
This is exactly why I brought up 2018. At that time, almost no one expected another sharp drop.
The fact is, I do not want the market to drop further. When that happens, retail investors disappear, and the environment becomes worse for everyone.
But every day I look at these indicators, and they seem to be saying: the bottom may not have arrived yet.
I keep asking myself whether this cycle will ultimately behave like previous cycles.
There is no doubt this is complicated. However, sometimes the best decision is simply to observe, analyze carefully, and board this train with greater confidence along the way.
Because our beloved Bitcoin is always full of traps 😀At the press conference in July, the framework Wash provided was basically a correct piece of empty talk—tighten when employment meets the target and inflation rises, ease when it falls.
This time he inserted a hard indicator: we must "be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward 2% at a sufficiently fast pace," otherwise "we still have work to do."
The word "work" refers to continuing to raise interest rates. But what exactly "sufficiently fast" means, he deliberately did not quantify. This leaves a loophole and plants a mine—the market can only guess.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 CORE's Quantum-Resistant Cutting-Edge Advantages (Current Status + Plans)
Current Status: Currently, the CORE mainnet, like BTC and ETH, uses ECDSA elliptic curve signatures. Once quantum computers mature, there is a risk of "collecting public keys now and decrypting to steal coins in the future."
After the official release in April 2026, a quantum defense roadmap will be launched, a cryptography team will be formed, and a hybrid dual-signature scheme will be adopted (NIST-standard ML-DSA post-quantum signature + original ECDSA signature in parallel), with each transaction carrying two sets of signatures.
✅ Planned Technical Cutting-Edge Advantages
1. Dual-signature hybrid architecture for smooth upgrades without forcing users to migrate private keys
- When quantum computers break traditional ECDSA, the post-quantum signature ensures asset security;
- If the new post-quantum algorithm is found vulnerable, the original ECDSA signature serves as a fallback;
- A rare progressive upgrade approach in EVM public chains, avoiding a one-time hard fork that forces all users to change wallet keys, making it friendlier for BTC stakers, DApps, and wallets.
2. Specifically designed for BTCFi scenarios to protect native BTC staked assets
CORE's biggest feature is that users stake BTC on the Bitcoin chain with CLTV time-locks, and BTC never leaves the Bitcoin wallet.
Future quantum-resistant upgrades will also consider this BTC non-custodial staking system, protecting both CORE chain assets and the quantum security of staked BTC, a scenario demand absent in ordinary EVM public chains.
3. Targeting institutional and large capital long-term security narratives
BTCFi will attract large BTC-LST, family offices, and asset management entries. Quantum security is a key long-term evaluation metric for institutions. Early deployment of post-quantum cryptography prepares technical groundwork for future institutional capital inflows.
4. Horizontal comparison with similar BTCFi projects
Projects like Stacks and Babylon remain at the conceptual roadmap stage without mainnet quantum resistance deployment; the entire BTCFi sector is still in R&D. CORE is among the earlier projects to publicly disclose a complete solution.Last night's market was really frustrating 😒.
Before Wash's speech, BTC hovered above 78K all day, looking relatively stable, and everyone was waiting for the 10 PM speech to land. But once he started speaking, inflation was described as "far above target," 2% is a "hard target," and the financial environment is not considered tight—after these three statements, BTC dropped 0.89% in 15 minutes to 78,620, ETH fell to 2,477, and gold plunged $50. Those who chased long positions probably got stunned.
The worst part isn't the big drop, but the way it dropped—it fell, but not thoroughly. BTC didn't break 77K, ETH didn't reach 2400; if you want to bottom-fish, you're afraid of catching a falling knife, if you want to short, you're afraid of a rebound after the speech is fully digested. You place an order and go to sleep, but none get filled.
The US stock market wasn't much better; Nasdaq futures fell 0.29%, MSTR rose 6%, but mining stocks were all down, showing strong sector divergence.
This kind of market is the easiest to lose money in. Wash is the same as always—telling you inflation is high, he's paying attention, but whether to raise rates or not, you guess. The market was previously worried he wouldn't provide a framework; this time at least he said 2% is a hard target, so that's some explanation. But the probability of a September rate hike has already passed 40%, and if CPI exceeds expectations again, that will be really tough.
Anyway, I stayed up last night for nothing, didn't catch anything. $BTC $ETH $SPCX #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 This is the first time since Wash took office that he has formally characterized the policy stance, and the conclusion is five words: not restrictive.
He presented a series of arguments — credit spreads are at the low end of the historical range, corporate bond and leveraged loan issuance is strong, banks have relatively loose lending standards for industry and commerce, and loan growth is not slow.
In plain language, this means:
At the current interest rate level, there is basically no cooling effect on the economy. This effectively shuts down any early thoughts of "should we ease a bit," instead shifting all the pressure to "should we tighten a bit more."
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage is clearly strengthening
To be honest, the performance at the $80,000 level is somewhat weaker than I expected.
Just the day before yesterday, it broke above the $80,000 mark, but today it quickly fell back to around $77,000, with a 24-hour drop of about 3%.
Why did this kind of movement occur?
On-chain data has already provided a relatively clear answer: the $80,000–$82,000 range is suppressing nearly 8% of the circulating supply, much of which consists of previously trapped funds waiting to be freed.
After two consecutive attempts to break through $81,500 were clearly pushed back, this performance is actually not surprising.
But what really made me start to be cautious is the movement of gold.
After Powell’s speech, gold once plunged about $120 and fell below $4,500, while BTC almost simultaneously experienced a significant drop.
According to Grayscale data, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen above 50%, while at the same time, the correlation with Nasdaq has dropped to about 33%.
In the past, I always thought that “digital gold” was more of a market narrative.
But with the US debt exceeding $40 trillion, the market seems to be re-evaluating fiat credit and asset value.
Now, the linkage between BTC and gold is becoming increasingly obvious—they seem to be tied to the same rope.
In the short term, the key area to watch next is the $76,500–$77,000 range.
As1. How much did it sell? Was it profitable? Unitree's humanoid robot sales surged from 5 units to over 5,200 units in two years, accounting for 30% of the global market share. It is one of the few profitable complete machine manufacturers in the industry, with a net profit of 278 million yuan by 2025 and a gross margin as high as 60% (compared to peers generally around 40%). On August 19, it was just listed on the STAR Market, and its stock price was already four times its IPO price. 2. What makes it strong? UBS splits its robots into three parts: brain (AI decision-making), cerebellum (motion control), and body (hardware body). Unitree's specialty lies in the latter two: · Hardware self-development: core components (motor, actuators) are made in-house, not outsourced, saving a lot of costs. The motor has extremely high torque, capable of running, jumping, and backflipping. Motion control expert: robots run fast (over 5 meters/second), perform group dances on the Spring Festival Gala, win gold medals at sports meets, and their practical skills can withstand the test. Cost moat: Although products drop prices year after year, self-developed + large-scale procurement reduce costs faster, so the more prices are cut, the higher the gross margin, and competitors simply can't compete. 3. Where are the weaknesses? Currently, 76% of humanoid robots are sold to research and education institutions, while only 3% actually work in factories. The reason is that robots' AI generalization (brains) are still insufficient, unable to handle complex tasks flexibly like humans. This is not Unitree's problem but an industry-wide bottleneck. 4. What to do next? · Raised 6 billion yuan in the IPO, with 39% (about 2 billion) dedicated to embodied AI R&D. · Just reached a strategic partnership with DeepSeek (capital + technology binding, locked in 3Short answer: *Yes, BTC is still the "steering wheel"*. But the way it leads has changed this time
*1. Why does BTC move first, and altcoins follow?*
The historical iron law remains unchanged:
*$BTC rises first → profits are taken → rotation to $ETH → then to $SOL → and finally to small coins*
Because:
1. *ETFs only buy BTC and ETH* #SchwabExpandsCrypto When institutions enter, their first stop is BTC
2. *#BTCGoldCorrelation* BTC is now tied to gold. When macro conditions improve or worsen, BTC reacts first
3. *Largest market cap, best liquidity* Large funds can only enter BTC first, then look for elasticity further down
So you're right: *If BTC has momentum = altcoins have a chance. If BTC is sideways/down = altcoins are a meat grinder*
*2. Will BTC lead the next wave? Look at 3 conditions*
Condition Current status Interpretation
**1. Macro liquidity** #WalshInflationRisk DXY 103.9↑ US Treasury 4.41%↑ Liquidity is tightening. Bearish for BTC
**2. ETF bullets** August daily average 400 million → September daily average 120 million Institutions are waiting for a signal, no aggressive buying
**3. Technicals** $76,200 stuck at MA30 If it breaks below $76K, watch $74.5K; if it holds above $79K, watch $81K During those years of stock trading, I went through two full cycles of bull and bear markets and learned one principle: sell during the frenzy, buy during despair.
In the crypto space, the $BTC cycle has compressed from four years to one year, but the underlying greed and fear have never changed.
At the stock market peak, even the market vendors were recommending stocks; at the crypto peak, Twitter is full of "never-ending highs."
The bottom looks similar too: in the stock market, no one checks their accounts; in crypto groups, only advertising bots remain.
I do the opposite based on this: when others curse, I place buy orders; when others show off their profits, I place sell orders.
Don’t aim to perfectly time the top or bottom; surviving three market tops in stocks or even one in crypto counts as a win.
I missed out on 30% gains selling $ETH too early, but I avoided a subsequent 40% crash, so it was worth it.
Now I apply the stock market's "right-side confirmation": don’t jump the gun, wait for the signal before acting.
Don’t rush to recover losses; the more you gamble in stocks, the more you lose, and it’s even worse in crypto.
When making money, remember how you lost before to keep your hands in check.
Set an alarm daily, check prices only twice, and avoid constantly refreshing the market.
No matter how hot $SOL gets, I stick to my plan and never add positions impulsively.
One last thing: use spare money, stick to discipline, the market won’t close, but your principal can.Every time I go long, it crashes; one sentence from Wash sent me off.
---
Folks, just stopped out of my ETH long. Entered at 2495, stopped out at 2450, -37.74%.
Last night Wash spoke at Jackson Hole—inflation risks remain, and the probability of a September rate hike is fully priced in. As soon as he spoke, BTC dropped from 81,000 to 80,000, and ETH directly fell below 2450. My long position was taken out by that move.
What did Wash say?
"The process of inflation decline has stalled."
"Core PCE at 3.7% is still far from the 2% target."
"The committee is prepared to take further action in September."
The market had been hoping that since PCE didn’t exceed expectations, there wouldn’t be a hike. Wash’s words completely reversed that expectation—he wasn’t discussing a hike, he was signaling one.
The interest rate futures market reacted directly, with the probability of a September hike surging to 64%. Before the bearish news landed, bulls found it hard to mount a decent counterattack.
Where did this trade go wrong?
It was wrong to bet on direction too early. Knowing Wash’s speech was the biggest variable, I still entered early to go long. With rate hike expectations heating up, risk assets are under pressure—this script isn’t new today.
In the future, stay flat before major events and wait for direction. Don’t gamble on this one; wait for the outcome before following.
Stay flat, wait for the dust to settle before looking for opportunities. 🖐️
$ETH
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 [New] Jackson Hole Macro Review
Last night, the Jackson Hole speech by Walsh landed, overall hawkish, shattering the market's previous easing fantasies.
Core: The 2% inflation target remains unchanged, summer inflation improvement does not mean an underlying trend improvement, possibility of further rate hikes remains; forward guidance is weakened, future policy will fully depend on inflation and employment data, will not follow market expectations, September rate hike expectations have risen sharply.
Market transmission chain: rising rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens → non-yielding assets and risk assets collectively pressured, high Beta assets experience larger pullbacks, many leveraged long positions are liquidated.
Going forward, inflation and non-farm payroll data will carry greater weight each month, market spikes and back-and-forth stop-loss sweeps will become the norm.
Like Camel Xiangzi who believed until death that he just wasn’t working hard enough.
Trading is similar; losses are not entirely due to insufficient review or effort. Macro shifts can easily break personal forecasts. Don’t blame all market outcomes solely on yourself; distinguish between external environment and personal issues. Trading does not reward smart people, only those who can endure, tolerate, and adapt. Profit is just the result; the cost is often hidden.
Key price levels reference for various assets
📈Spot Gold XAUUSD
Sharp plunge after the speech, speculative longs fled at high levels, central bank buying provides underlying support, the major trend has not directly reversed, entering a phase of retesting support.
Resistance: 4600-4640, 4670-4700
Support: 4450-4460 (short-term defense), 4500-4520 major watershed
📈BTC Bitcoin
Risk appetite cools, crowded leveraged longs reduce positions; spot ETF buying provides bottom buffer, high Beta coins face increased pullback pressure.
Resistance: 8000-8130, 8280-8300
Support: 7600-7700 short-term defense, 7300-7450 medium support, 6900-7100 major trend watershed
📈ETH Ethereum
More elastic than BTC, more sensitive to liquidity expectation disturbances.
Resistance: 2520-2560, 2750-2800
Support: 2360-2400 short-term defense, 2220-2260 medium support, 2050-2100 major watershed
📈WTI Crude Oil
Dollar strength suppresses oil prices, but Middle East geopolitical supply risks remain, decline is less than precious metals and crypto, shifting to range-bound oscillation.
Resistance: 84.4-85.3, 86.8-87.5
Support: 81.8-82.4 short-term defense, 80.5-81.0 medium support, 79.0-79.5 major trend lifeline
📈Micron Technology MU
Long-term logic for HBM industry unchanged, but rising rates suppress growth stock valuations, intensifying high-level consolidation.
Resistance: 927-933, 980-985
Support: 900 short-term defense, 860-870 medium support, 820-830 trend watershed
Trading Insights
Macro expectations have been rewritten, no longer supported by policy rhetoric.
Do not stubbornly resist the trend, do not heavily bet against the trend. Do not get swept up by the market’s heated emotions, no need to fear missing out. Wait for price to truly test support and resistance, and act only after the market gives high-probability confirmation signals.
A faint glow can ignite a prairie fire. The market never lacks opportunities; survival is the first priority. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Here's a rewritten version + latest data + changed phrasing 👇
---
*$BTC players now must keep a close eye on gold and the dollar*
After Walsh's hawkish stance at Jackson Hole, the entire market is playing a *"liquidity drain game"*
*Latest linkage as of 9.1 afternoon:*
1. *Dollar Index DXY ↑ 103.1 → 103.9*
Probability of rate cuts dropped from 91% to 78%. Safe-haven funds flow back into the dollar
2. *US 10-year Treasury yield ↑ 4.25% → 4.41%*
Interest rates aren't coming down; bonds are more interesting than crypto
3. *$BTC ↓ $80,900 → $76,200*
Risk assets are taking the lead in losses
4. *Gold ↓ $2525 → $2472*
Real interest rates rise, gold can't hold up
5. *Silver ↓ $29.6 → $28.1*
Double hit for precious metals and industrial commodities
This is classic *liquidity tightening*. Less liquidity means everything falls
*#WalshInflationRisk Inflation risk is back*
The core logic is simple: *"No rush to cut rates"*
Walsh's message: Inflation isn't dead yet; September moves depend on data
Meanwhile, #SchwabExpandsCrypto Charles Schwab announces expansion of crypto business, which should be positive
But against the macro backdrop, the news is completely overshadowedSchwab's planned addition of SOL, AVAX and LINK matters less as a token endorsement than as a change in how mainstream investors may access crypto. After launching its phased SchwabCrypto rollout in May 2026 with BTC and ETH, the broker is moving beyond the two largest established assets into smart-contract networks and oracle infrastructure.
My read: the real signal will be client behavior. If demand persists after access becomes routine, other brokers and asset managers may face pressure to broaden their own menus. Until then, this is evidence of expanding distribution, not proof of durable allocation. Not advice, just analysis.
#SchwabExpandsCryptoAre whales really such chumps!
Knowing full well that Walsh has put his hawkish stance on the table
Yet still daring to add 1000 BTC during the speech
Today also added 28,000 $ETH long positions
This is not vision
This is taking tens of millions of dollars to go head-to-head with the Fed
Anyway, I continue to be bearish
Although a September rate hike is not 100% certain
It has already shifted from a low probability event to a 50-50 chance upwards
PCE year-over-year is still at 3.7%
Core PCE is also at 3.3%
Unemployment rate is only 4.1%
Consumption and business investment remain resilient
Credit conditions are not tight either
The economy does not need saving
But inflation has not yet returned to 2%
As long as September's nonfarm payrolls and CPI do not show obvious cooling
Walsh has enough reason to continue raising rates
He himself said
If inflation does not clearly and quickly return to target
The Fed still has work to do
However, July's nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000
This is the biggest variable in the rate hike script
So I dare to bet on a hawkish bias
But I won't write rate hikes as 100% certain
——
ETH just touched around 2520 and was smashed back to the 2440 level
This round is not due to Ethereum itself
But because after rate hike expectations heat up
The dollar and US Treasury yields rise
High leverage long positions start concentrated deleveraging
Next, as long as the rebound cannot reclaim 2490 to 2520
The four-hour structure remains weak
2418 is the first line of defense
If broken, look to 2400
Only then will this downtrend script be invalidated
——
$OKB is now oscillating around 110
In the short term, it also cannot escape market risk aversion
Once 108 cannot hold
It will likely continue to test 105 and 100
Fundamentals are not weak
So it looks more like following the broader market's catch-down drop
After reclaiming 115
Bears need to watch for a rebound to 120
——
$SNDK has already gained over 500% this year
This kind of high volatility stock fears rising yields the most
The hawkier Walsh is
The more obvious valuation compression and profit-taking become
Short term, first watch if 1435 can hold
If broken, then 1400 and 1350
Only after reclaiming 1518 to 1550
Is there a chance to continue the rebound
However, its latest quarterly revenue grew 51% quarter-over-quarter
The company still has $15.5 billion in remaining buyback authorization
Fundamentals are indeed strong
So this looks like a high-level pullback
Not a fundamental collapse for now
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Musk says SpaceX will have 3.5 trillion in revenue by 2033, the story is true, but the price has already priced that in
Morgan Stanley says SpaceX will have 3.5 trillion in revenue by 2040, Musk directly retorts: I estimate it will be reached by 2033, seven years ahead, the tone is ridiculously confident.
My judgment: the story is true, but the current price has already priced in the imagination.
$SPCX current price is around 140, market cap about 1.9 trillion. But SpaceX's annual revenue is just over 30 billion, with a net loss of 4.9 billion in 2025. A heavily loss-making company supporting a 1.9 trillion market cap relies entirely on the imagination of "3.5 trillion in 2033."
Morgan Stanley's target price is 300 dollars, Goldman Sachs and UBS are also bullish. But Wall Street's bullishness is never just to make you money; whether they hold shares themselves is the key.
The risk is valuation. The market has already priced in Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure into the imagination. Such a high-growth + high-loss + ultra-high valuation stock has an extremely low margin for error. Positive news is hard to exceed expectations, negative news is easily amplified.
My strategy: the story can be listened to, but I will not heavily invest at this position. I will consider gradually entering when it pulls back to the 115-120 range. Faith is faith, trading is trading.
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 ⚠️ Trading BTC now requires close attention to the movements of gold and the US dollar.
After Warsh made hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, the market quickly triggered a series of chain reactions:
💵 DXY ↑
📈 US Treasury yields ↑
₿ BTC ↓
🥇 Gold ↓
🥈 Silver ↓
This is a very typical liquidity tightening spreading across multiple markets.
When the dollar strengthens and yields rise, market liquidity comes under pressure, and risk assets often feel the strain first.
Therefore, BTC's current trend cannot be viewed solely from the crypto market itself; changes in the dollar, bond yields, and gold may also become important indicators for the next market move. 👀📊
#WalshInflationRisk
#BTCGoldCorrelation
#SchwabExpandsCrypto$BTC 📊 On-chain observation: Ancient wallets collectively awaken, but overall dormant coin activity remains sluggish
Recently, about 6 Bitcoin wallets with over ten years of history have transferred a total of approximately $40 million worth of BTC this month, causing fluctuations in ancient holdings and raising market caution.
However, Galaxy Research data shows a contrast: the overall on-chain activity of long-term dormant Bitcoin remains at low levels since 2022.
At the current pace, the scale of dormant coins reactivating throughout 2026 will be less than half of last year's.
Transfers from individual decade-old wallets ≠ collective flight of ancient holders.
Transfers do not equal selling; it could be wallet migration or asset reorganization. Only funds flowing into exchanges represent potential selling pressure.
2. The vast majority of early holders remain inactive, showing strong willingness to hold long-term.
The large-scale distribution phase of old coins in 2024-2025 has likely passed, and selling pressure from OG old miners is generally weakening.
3. Risk point: Although overall activity is low, if more ancient wallets concentrate transfers to exchanges later, it will add new real selling pressure.
Do not be misled by isolated hotspot events; distinguish between individual wallet cases and the overall on-chain market.
Looking at a few old wallet transfers alone cannot directly infer a market top; what really matters is the overall dormant coin activity and whether transfers flow into exchanges.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 $BTC's drop below $78K isn't the main story. The reaction is. After the hawkish Jackson Hole signal, yields and the dollar strengthened, pressuring risk assets. BTC fell toward $77K while $ETH slipped below $2.5K. Now watch $75K. If buyers absorb the selling there, this could become a healthy reset. If $75K breaks decisively, deeper downside becomes possible. ETF flows matter too. Strong spot demand during weakness would support the bullish case. For now, don't predict the bottom. Watch the reacThe spotlight on Jackson Hole came on on time tonight, as Federal Reserve Chairman Wash took the podium for his first keynote speech since taking office. The market held its breath, waiting for a clearer answer: how to curb inflation, how to choose interest rate paths, and whether long-term yields have entered policy view. However, after the speech, many felt not sudden clarity but deeper unresolved questions. Wash continued his signature "less is more" style, failing to provide a clear policy framework or draw clear boundaries between "under what conditions to raise rates" or "under what conditions to remain on the sidelines." This communication style is not the first time it has triggered market volatility; in July, he caused similar vague remarks that pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007. Tonight, the market had hoped for a correction but was met with another round of "tai chi" pushing the market. The reaction was direct and restrained. Bitcoin slipped from around $79,500 before the speech to around $78,700, a drop of nearly 1 percentage point. While not dramatic, it was enough to indicate a cooling sentiment. Meanwhile, long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued to strengthen, and gold's upward momentum remained strong. Funds seemed to vote with their feet, expressing dissatisfaction with policy visibility. An analyst bluntly stated on social media that the market can forgive volatility, but it is hard to forgive silence. This statement highlights the subtle tension between the market and central banks: investors do not expect precise guidance from every speech, but during a highly uncertain cycle, ongoing ambiguity can amplify asset price sensitivity$BTC and $ETH, which had been holding steady, were crushed by a single statement from Wash.
Several key points from last night's global central bank annual meeting speech: Inflation remains the Federal Reserve's primary enemy, with PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, and an annualized 4.1% over the past 6 months, far from the 2% target. Core inflation is rising. The responsibility for 65 months of sustained high inflation lies with central banks, and the current financial environment is not particularly tight. The Fed will incorporate AI into policy considerations.
Wash's comments were interpreted as hawkish, and the market quickly repriced. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September jumped from 35% to 55%.
BTC and ETH also fell in response, but don't take this speech as a long-term bearish signal. Wash himself has always been relatively friendly toward crypto, and rate hikes now have very little impact on Bitcoin, sometimes causing no volatility at all.
I'm holding onto my short positions to see how things develop, hoping US politicians will keep pushing so I can get out of my position. $SOL #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK These people really treat Chinese retail investors like ATMs. The official Trump authorized account issued the dog coin, the listing time was Asian time, the posts were also in Asian time, but the posts were deleted after just a few hours, and then the price directly dropped to zero $TRUMP When market consensus becomes unusually uniform, a turning point is often near. Looking back to March 2024, Bitcoin broke through $73,000, and at that time, almost no one talked about a bear market anymore; $100,000 seemed only a matter of time. Meanwhile, many people, based on past cycle experience, believed that altcoins would inevitably take over and soar after a new all-time high, so they exchanged Bitcoin for altcoins, expecting a rotation of wealth. However, the reality was that $73,000 was the peak of that rally, after which the market turned downward. Altcoins not only failed to catch up but also gave back all the gains accumulated during the bull market. The old rules failed again, reminding us that predictions are inherently uncertain. A more reliable approach is to build a trading system that does not rely on subjective judgment and mechanically execute partial take-profits. When everyone is focused on higher target prices, it is time to gradually reduce positions. The market consensus in June this year was bearish down to $50,000 and $40,000, which is also a signal to be cautious. Instead of obsessing over the bottom, it is better to respect the system signals. At the end of this bull market, it is highly likely that a new story, unimaginable at present, will emerge to drive prices. At that time, there is no need to scrutinize the story's authenticity; decisively selling in batches and locking in profits is key. Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, and historical experience does not represent future performance. Please manage your positions carefully. $BTC🚨 $MRVL earnings beat expectations — but market sentiment in the AI sector is under pressure.
Marvell delivered a pretty impressive report:
📈 Revenue up 37% year-over-year
🏢 Data center business up 46%
🚀 FY27 / FY28 outlook further raised
However, the market reaction was unexpected.
$MRVL fell about 8% pre-market, while $SNDK, $MU, and $WDC also weakened.
In contrast, $NVDA and $AVGO stock prices remained relatively stable.
📌 This may indicate that the market is rotating funds out of relatively weaker AI stocks, while the core growth driven by AI demand remains strong.
Good earnings don’t necessarily mean the stock price will rise.
In the current AI market, capital is becoming more selective. 👀📊
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTestGlobal markets evaporated 2.3 trillion: What exactly did Waller say?
What exactly did he say?
The original words were not long, but every sentence was like a knife.
"We must be sure that underlying inflation is moving toward the 2% target at a sufficiently fast pace. Otherwise, we still have work to do."
"Still have work to do" — this is the closest official Fed language to "ready to raise rates."
There was an even harsher sentence:
"I find it hard to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive."
In plain language: the current interest rate level is simply not tight enough. There is still room for rate hikes.
Inflation core indicators have not improved, PCE year-over-year for 12 months is 3.7%, annualized 4.1% over six months — still far from 2% by a huge margin. Waller directly said: we cannot wait.
His subtext is scarier than the plain words.
"Financial conditions are not restrictive" — means the Fed itself believes there is still room to raise rates. The market had previously priced in "rates are already high enough," now Waller says "not enough."
He blocked all retreat paths.
What does the market fear most? Not rate hikes, but uncertainty.
If you give a clear rate hike path, the market can price it, hedge it, or run.
If you give nothing, the market can only panic sell.
From 35% to 58%, it only took a 30-minute speech.
This is the power of Jackson Hole.
It also reminds us of one thing:
In the face of macroeconomics, all technical analysis is secondary.
No matter how many support levels you draw, how many candlestick patterns you watch, how many waves you count —
Waller’s one sentence shatters them all.$SOL is really strong this round, climbing from around $70 all the way to $110, but today it got doused by a macro cold shower, dropping below $105, down over 4% in 24 hours, now hovering between $100 and $104. Simply put, it rose too fast; the daily RSI once surged to 84, clearly overbought, so a correction was inevitable, and Wash just handed the knife.
But don't rush to write it off. This breakout for SOL is backed by fundamentals, not just pure sentiment speculation. The RWA ecosystem's total locked value has surpassed $4 billion, with SOL accounting for about 95% of tokenized stocks. Agave's 4.2 mainnet upgrade reduces costs and improves efficiency. More importantly, Goldman Sachs has become the largest disclosed holder of spot Solana ETFs, with real long-term capital flowing in. On-chain activity is also strong; Orca and Raydium's 30-day fees have increased by 106% and 47% respectively, indicating the network is in use, not empty.
Technically, $96 to $102 is the short-term support zone (corresponding to MA5 and MA10), $88 to $90 is a firmer bottom line (near the 200-day moving average). As long as it doesn't break below $88, the mid-term structure remains bullish. The $105 to $107 range is the real decision zone; if it holds above, the next target is $115 to $125. Right now, it's just a breather in the uptrend, not a trend reversal. Those with heavy positions can reduce some on the rebound; those without positions can consider buying in the $88 to $96 range, but don't chase at the overbought peak. When trading stocks, I like to watch the volume; I only dare to follow when there's a volume breakout, but I often get fooled by fake breakouts and end up stuck.
After switching to $BTC, I found that on-chain volume is even more illusory; whales can create perfect golden crosses by wash trading.
But one thing is indisputable: heavy volume crashes, just like in the stock market, are not good signals and you have to run.
In the stock market, when all the bad news is out, it's considered good news; in crypto, bad news just smashes through the floor without a breather.
I brought over the right-side trading method: don't guess the bottom, wait for $ETH to stabilize above the 5-day moving average before making a move.
There was a time after a crash when it consolidated sideways for three days; I held back from buying, and sure enough, it dropped another 10%, avoiding a disaster.
Don't believe in "faith-based top-ups"—back in the day, LeTV also had a bunch of die-hard fans.
Now I only watch two things: the fear and greed index and the contract position ratio, similar to margin balances in the stock market.
When contracts have been heavily liquidated, it's often a phase bottom, similar to clearing out margin positions.
When I make money, I immediately take out half; when losing, I never add positions, waiting for a full drop to buy back.
The $SOL incident was a lesson:
I chased at a high price and now I'm still stuck halfway down the mountain.
Remember, the market punishes all kinds of arrogance; staying alive is more important than anything.
Play with spare money, set stop losses, and leave the rest to time.$XAU Gold really got stunned by the hawkish stance this time.
Wash released a tough signal at Jackson Hole, and the market's expectations for a September rate hike have clearly heated up, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthening simultaneously, putting direct pressure on gold.
This pullback has already exceeded $150, and the single-day drop is quite dramatic.
"Black Friday" is truly deserved.
But I actually think it's not yet time to declare the gold bull market over.
Because this decline is more about a sudden reversal in rate hike expectations plus concentrated profit-taking from earlier gains, rather than a complete collapse of gold's long-term logic.
What Wash really changed is short-term capital pricing:
Rate hike expectations ↑
Dollar ↑
U.S. Treasury yields ↑
Gold under pressure ↓
So in the short term, gold still needs to guard against further valuation cuts, especially since the previous gains were huge; once capital starts to stampede, volatility will be very high.
But from a medium to long-term perspective, core logics like global fiscal deficits, debt pressure, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks have not disappeared because of one hawkish speech.
So my judgment is simple:
Short term: expect adjustment; medium term: expect recovery; long term: bull market logic is not yet broken.
What really needs caution is not the $150 drop, but whether gold can reclaim key levels during the subsequent rebound.
If gold can quickly recover lost ground after falling, it looks more like washing out overheated chips from earlier.
If it continues to break key supports while the dollar and real interest rates keep rising, then it’s time to reassess whether this gold rally has entered a deeper level of correction.
Don’t condemn the bull market just because of a one-day plunge.
In big markets, the harshest shakeouts often happen when everyone believes in the trend the most.
So don’t rush to bottom-fish or to be bearish this time.
Wait for rate hike expectations to stabilize, then see if gold can regain the initiative.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Actually, Saturday is a pretty good time because its volatility is low. If you like frequent trading, Saturday should be your comfort zone. You can do short-term trades back and forth. Historically, the chance of a big drop on Saturday is lower than at other times. Usually, the drops happen on Thursday or Friday—crazy Friday, you know. Generally, Friday is also the settlement period or settlement day. Saturday is a very good time as it avoids these risks. Yesterday's crash, did institutions really pull out? The answer from ETFs isn't that simple.
On August 27, the US stock spot BTC ETF still had a net inflow of about $242 million, marking nine consecutive trading days of capital inflow; on August 28, it turned into a net outflow of about $49.7 million.
The amount isn't large, but it happened on the same day BTC plunged sharply, which is worth being cautious about.
We can't say institutions have completely turned bearish yet, but there is indeed a divergence in funds.
Next week, focus on ETFs:
Inflow recovery → might just be short-term deleveraging;
Continued outflow → BTC/ETH rebound weakens, and the correction may further deepen.
Don't rush to bottom-fish yet, wait for institutional funds to give the answer. #BTC #ETH#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？
The potential $30 trillion market (TAM) figure is indeed staggering, but the key question is whether it can support a $2 trillion IPO valuation. This number is based on the theoretical projection of "full automation of human labor" and has been criticized as overly idealistic—considering that the combined revenue of 191 tech companies in the S&P 1500 index last year was only $2.4 trillion.
In contrast, the financial data is more solid. As of the end of July, the annualized revenue reached $65 billion, an increase of over 600% compared to the end of last year; Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a 14-fold year-over-year increase; the 2028 revenue target is $190 billion to $200 billion.
However, the huge computing power bills are a significant burden—paying SpaceX $1.25 billion monthly and having signed a five-year $200 billion cloud service agreement with Google. The company has yet to achieve net profit under GAAP standards, and combined with high interest rates, anti-AI sentiment, and other macro headwinds, the uncertainty cannot be ignored.
Whether the $30 trillion TAM can be realized is an extreme test of the AI valuation system in the public market. It acts more like a "denominator" that raises the ceiling, while the real key lies in sustained revenue growth and profitability.I acknowledge the explanatory power of the power-law framework and also believe that Bitcoin may roughly follow this trajectory for many years to come. However, I am no longer convinced that the power law alone is sufficient to describe Bitcoin's ultimate outcome.
As Bitcoin matures, its returns are declining, and its volatility is also decreasing. The decline in volatility not only changes the scale of capital Bitcoin can absorb but also expands its uses within the financial system.
Lower volatility improves Bitcoin's risk-adjusted returns and makes financing with Bitcoin as collateral easier. When Bitcoin becomes a high-quality collateral asset in the global financial system, the scale of dollar credit backed by it could expand significantly.
Diminishing returns suppress volatility, the decline in volatility attracts more capital, and it expands the financing scale that Bitcoin can support. Ultimately, these forces may instead drive Bitcoin's price to accelerate again, breaking upward through the power-law trajectory.Every trade I place has a risk-reward ratio exceeding 10:1. For each trade, I tell you the percentage of principal at risk. Trades with a low win rate generally risk 0.5%, while those with a high win rate and good risk-reward ratio usually take a heavy position of 3-5%, never exceeding 5%. Heavily weighted trades require holding on, while light positions can be taken with a quick taste and exited easily. Before opening each trade, I only keep the corresponding funds in the contract account; the rest stays in the funding account, using cross margin mode because I usually roll two positions. Opening isolated margin is difficult to manage. Rolling positions is not scary; I roll at support and resistance swap points, following my ratio and price levels. The stop-loss point for rolling is the exit point. Generally, the first roll is 2-3 times, the second roll is one time, and I basically only roll twice. I open each trade based on my principal ratio. Over the long term, the maximum drawdown won't exceed 10%. My trading model has been in operation for three years. The largest drawdown in three years was 27%, with an average drawdown between 5-10%. Basically, on average, your funding account can double or triple every three months. My trading system can't achieve tens of times gains in a single day, but the advantage is that 99% of the time it won't blow up your funding account. Although stop losses are small, the benefit is a very high risk-reward ratio. In the past three years, there has never been a losing streak of more than 7 trades. I don't immediately reopen trades after stop loss in the same time period, even if I judge it to be a liquidity sweep. I only reopen after 7-11 candles. Opportunities are always there; the market has 5*(3-6) hours of trading windows each week.Last quarter, when Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its peak, I proposed that the bear market is not a system flaw but part of Bitcoin's early adoption process. At the beginning of this year, I also explained why Bitcoin might reach $11 million by 2036. I still believe this scenario is possible, but a more worthwhile question is: what path will Bitcoin take to get there?
Bitcoin's early cycles saw hundredfold gains, while recent cycles have shown significantly narrower returns. If this trend continues, Bitcoin will eventually resemble a mature asset more and more, with returns gradually normalizing.
The power-law model summarizes this change well. (It refers to the relatively stable power function relationship between Bitcoin's price and time over the long term.) As the asset size grows, its returns gradually decline. Over the past decade-plus, Bitcoin has consistently followed a highly stable long-term trajectory.U.S. debt nears the ceiling, where is the bottom of the crypto market's four-year cycle?
The total U.S. debt has surpassed 40 trillion, while Congress has set the Treasury's credit ceiling at 41.1 trillion. USD, gold, and BTC share liquidity; when you have more, I have less, and vice versa.
It's normal for this rally to drive gold and BTC prices up, but strangely, ETH's beta value is higher than BTC's. In the past day, BTC hit a new high, but ETH did not, and while the price on larger timeframes is rising, momentum is weakening.
Considering Germany's unusual increase in defense budget in July after decades, and Japan's establishment of a new military intelligence agency, is it possible? Could S3 be triggered?
Speculating here, the U.S. might want to exert economic influence through a controlled war of a certain scale—definitely larger than what is currently happening. Because short-term geopolitical risks will cause liquidity to flow back to the dollar, on some day in the coming months, geopolitical risks might cause gold and the dollar to absorb liquidity. That moment would be the true bottom of the crypto market's four-year cycle.
However, the U.S. cannot excessively impact the macroeconomy through geopolitical risks; it cannot go too far. Like S2, the war might spiral out of control, so the scenario is that the controlled war is stopped, the Federal Reserve floods the market with liquidity, and only then do risk assets and the crypto market truly begin a bull market.$BEAT Wake up, short brothers! Don't feed fuel to the bulls! Wait until the dog whales make a move, then short accordingly!!!
Why the pump before unlocking? What benefit does it bring to the whales? Do they really pump it hard to let 80% of the longs make money? Is that realistic? Multiple positions are involved. Among the 14% shorts above, 10% were old short positions from earlier stages; old positions aren't afraid of liquidation—they hold very high positions. The whales pumping it up also incur high costs; they won't make a loss-making trade. Since early this morning, the price has been oscillating between 0.128-0.13, indicating high selling and buying to gauge market sentiment and calculate the next move. They found neither bulls nor bears moved, then started testing an upward move to lure shorts. After several waves, it was effective, and long sentiment rose, so later they didn't need to act themselves. Retail investors began chasing longs, pushing the price up. The whales spent little cost. As for when they'll dump, it's unknown. Anyway, shorting now is completely unnecessary; you're just asking for trouble.BTC traders should watch gold and the dollar right now.
After Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech:
DXY ↑
Treasury yields ↑
BTC ↓
Gold ↓
Silver ↓
That’s a classic liquidity squeeze.
The important part?
If the dollar and yields start falling while BTC holds support, risk assets could get another boost.
Watch the correlation — not just the BTC chart.
#BTC #Gold #CryptoI recently re-examined crypto market data from the past seven years and found a very clear pattern: 🚨 once the market enters a sharp decline or panic phase, the linkage between BTC and mainstream altcoins suddenly strengthens. Normally, many coins have their own trends and narratives, but when the market truly begins to crash, they seem to quickly "lose independence." Data shows that in relatively stable market environments, the average correlation between mainstream altcoins and BTC is about 0.60–0.70. But when panic selling occurs, this number often quickly rises above 0.85, and in extreme cases, it can even approach 0.95. In other words: 📉 you usually think you hold multiple different assets. 📉 When a real crash occurs, they may suddenly become trades in the same direction. So I thought of a potentially very useful market monitoring tool: $BTC + $ETH + $SOL + $BNB + $DOGE + $ADA If these six mainstream coins start to show high synchronization in a short period—whether rising or falling simultaneously—I think this may not be ordinary price volatility, but rather the entire market is concentrating in one direction. 🔥 A simultaneous rise → may mean risk appetite is rapidly returning and market liquidity is spreading. ⚠️ A simultaneous decline → could mean systemic risk aversion is happening, and so-called "diversified holdings" may instantly lose their effectiveness. And the recent market