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Predicting the upcoming trend: Cryptocurrency still hasn't truly broken the 4-year cycle. According to the bear market cycle, the bottom should be around mid-October. So this current rise, I firmly believe, is a rebound from the drop in May-June, not a reversal. I also opened a long position at 61,000, exited at 68,000, and then opened a short position. I am still holding, despite some losses, I remain confident in my judgment. Following Wash's negative remarks on August 28, the price has dropped from 81,478 to 77,520. I think it will continue to fluctuate for a while or trend downward. The real big drop will happen after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 15, along with the cryptocurrency bill decision, which is likely to be negative news. Only then will a new round of decline truly begin, probably breaking new lows by mid-October. I can't provide exact figures on how far it will fall, but I boldly predict this: the 2021 bull market peak was over 69,000, the 2025 bull market peak is expected to be 126,000, meaning roughly a 1x increase from the previous bull peak. The 2022 bear market bottom was over 15,000, so even if this round's bottom is three times the 2022 bottom, that would be around 45,000. Therefore, I boldly predict this round's bottom will be around 45,000. I never believed that 57,000 in June was the major bottom. The market always follows the 80/20 rule. Currently, there is a lot of bullish sentiment, but the main players will only create such a market to surprise most retail investors. It's always easier to dump than to pump.Last night at 10 PM, Wash's speech brought a heavy bearish impact to the mainstream market, with both BTC and ETH dropping sharply, and over hundreds of millions of dollars liquidated across the network!! The speech was hawkish, acknowledging that inflation remains high, clearly indicating that interest rates are still the main policy tool of the US government, far below market expectations. Whales and large holders retreated to cut losses, causing panic selling in the market. Yesterday, BTC ETF funds saw a net outflow of $201.9 million, showing that many funds chose to hedge and exit before Wash's speech. $BTC However, ETH ETF funds had a net inflow of $102.1 million yesterday, marking 12 consecutive days of strong inflows. $ETH shows clear accumulation, with market confidence noticeably higher than BTC. $ETH After Wash released hawkish signals last night, the market has basically digested the panic sentiment. Although expectations for a September rate hike have increased, the long-term bullish sentiment in the market remains unchanged. ETH did not break below 2400, indicating strong buying interest at the lower levels. Despite a sharp drop, many institutions and whales are still actively bottom-fishing ETH. Fuxing remains bullish on BTC and ETH. Without the liquidity brought by US stock market openings over the weekend, the market will likely consolidate sideways. Future rises will depend on market sentiment and whether new funds enter. Continuing to position in mainstream market trends and strong altcoins over the weekend. Those interested are welcome to discuss on the homepage. $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 $DOGE This bullish trend hasn't broken, but the Federal Reserve's recent tone is its biggest variable. The Fed is overall hawkish; since the new chair Wash took office, they haven't eased up, keeping interest rates stuck at 3.5%-3.75%, with some internal discussions about raising rates. However, the August meeting minutes left a door open—the official judgment is that inflation will decline in the second half of the year, with gasoline prices dropping and core inflation slowing. This means rate cuts are not off the table, just postponed, and Citibank has already moved the first rate cut expectation to October. For the market, this is the "bad news fully priced in is good news" script: hawkish expectations are maxed out, and as long as inflation data shows some leniency, rate cut trades can reignite at any time. Back to $DOGE itself, it dropped over 7 points on the 7th, but looking at 30 days, it’s still up 20%, indicating this pullback is more like a normal retracement after a rally, not a trend reversal. The move from 0.07 to 0.10 was a solid volume-driven advance; now it’s pulling back to around 0.085 with shrinking volume and sideways movement, a typical "resting" pattern. Bulls should watch the 0.082 previous low support—if it holds and the Fed’s tone turns dovish, liquidity expectations improve, this highly elastic asset often leads the rebound. Conversely, if September data surprises on the downside and rate hike talk resurfaces, then it’s time to retreat and not fight the central bank. The bullish strategy remains: buy the dip, don’t chase highs, and keep some position flexibility. $DOGE 通缩刚通过，巨鲸就连夜抢了32万枚$SOL 今天链上数据有点意思。两个巨鲸地址在过去10小时内，从币安和Kraken一共提走了318,718枚SOL，价值约3355万美元。 其中一个地址5p6zPz从币安提了281,446枚SOL（约2968万美元）。另一个地址3WzfuP从Kraken提了37,272枚SOL（约387万美元）。 但这个地址有意思的地方在于——它不是第一次这么干。 链上数据显示，这个钱包正是3月18日沉寂四个月后重新加仓的那个地址。当时浮亏超800万美元，照样继续买。如今同一地址再次加码，仓位均价大概率已被摊薄至100美元下方。 从6月巨鲸向交易所存入30.8万枚SOL认亏离场，到今天从交易所提走31.8万枚SOL——行为从“止损抛售”转向“越跌越买”。 时间点卡得也很巧。 昨天Solana验证者刚以67%支持率通过了SGP-0002“双倍通缩”提案，年通胀缩减率从15%提高到30%。提案刚过，巨鲸就来扫货了。 SOL现价约104美元，从8月中旬74-77美元反弹上来，涨了超过40%。过去24小时跌幅约2.73%，短线在消化获利盘。 主力28万枚从币安流出，是典型的From Computing Power Frenzy to Real Money: As AI Earnings Spread to Storage and Software, Who Will Be the Next Wave of Winners? This round of AI earnings season has released clear signals of industry rotation. NVIDIA has confirmed the hunger for computing power, ChangXin Memory Technologies turned profitable, Hynix and Micron have full HBM orders, and Salesforce and CrowdStrike’s AI revenues are also accelerating solidly. This marks the official shift of AI investment from 1.0 "buy chips and build infrastructure" to 2.0 "who is truly making fiat money using AI." In the inference and multi-agent collaboration phase, memory bandwidth and capacity have become core bottlenecks, driving storage chips to transform into customized computing power infrastructure. On the application side, companies no longer pay for concepts but for real tools that improve conversion rates and automate security. Software leaders with private domain data barriers are accelerating incremental gains. Chip valuations are already high; future valuation re-ratings are more likely to occur in supply-constrained storage infrastructure and vertical software that can lock in customer cash flow. Among chips, storage, and application software, which segment do you believe has the strongest commercial monetization potential? #财报观察员：AI需求延伸至存储与软件 #StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易 The most noteworthy aspect of this transaction is not the "quantum resistance" itself, but that it was achieved without modifying a single line of Bitcoin's consensus code. QSB is not an "upgrade to Bitcoin"; it adds a hash lock to Bitcoin—running parallel to the elliptic curve signature, effectively providing a second layer of security for high-value holdings. StarkWare researcher Avihu Levy developed the QSB scheme in his spare time and completed the first quantum-resistant transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet. Transaction ID 305a24..., block 964,199, mined by MARA Pool. The sender used "signature grinding" technology, attempting millions of times until the transaction hash itself happened to match a valid signature format, switching security from elliptic curve to hash function. Cost: $150-200, took several hours. This is not a protocol upgrade. This transaction is non-standard format; ordinary nodes will not relay it and it must be packaged through a miner-exclusive channel. If the public key is already exposed, QSB cannot help. Its significance lies in proving that a certain degree of quantum resistance can be achieved without a soft fork. BIP-360 and BIP-361 are still under discussion, and Google has called for post-quantum transition to be completed by 2029. QSB is costly and slow, so it cannot be popularized for everyday transfers, but it offers large holders an option to "lock holdings first without waiting for protocol changes." $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through. Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through. Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through. Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $BTC $ETH $SOL | THE RALLY IS COOLING — DON’T CONFUSE A PULLBACK WITH A REVERSAL. After $BTC reached $81.3K, $ETH reclaimed $2.5K, and $SOL approached $110, the market is now absorbing profit-taking and deleveraging. $BTC is around $77.5K, $ETH near $2.43K, and $SOL around $104. The $78K area for $BTC and $2.4K for $ETH remain critical. Hold these levels#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto Solana's approval of SGP-0002 is less a supply shock than a test of network economics. The vote, backed by about 176M SOL and roughly 67% of voting weight, only narrowly cleared the two-thirds threshold, while implementation still requires development and a mainnet upgrade. Slowing issuance by about 18.9M SOL over six years may reduce dilution, but the stronger signal will be whether fee revenue can replace lower new-token rewards without weakening validator participation. That trade-off matters more than the headline vote. Not advice, just analysis. #SolanaInflationVoteCurrently, $BTC's weekly large bullish candle has proven that the bulls are back! This week, BTC reached a high of 81,500, leaving a long upper shadow on the weekly chart, indicating significant selling pressure above 80,000. The biggest short-term issue is just one: the rise has been too fast! The KDJ's J value is close to 99; if it pulls up further at this level, the risk-reward ratio is no longer as comfortable as before. A pullback would be healthier. Next, I am only watching: If it can hold steady between 73,500 and 75,000, it would be a strong consolidation; If it stabilizes between 70,000 and 72,000, that would be a comfortable mid-term entry zone; If 70,000 is broken, then look down to 65,000–68,000. Also, ETFs! Previously, ETFs had continuous large inflows, which was a very important source of spot buying for this rally. Yesterday, net outflows reappeared, indicating institutional divergence. Combined with the Nasdaq's pullback, rising 2-year US Treasury yields, and a rebounding dollar, it won't be easy for BTC to break the previous high directly. So I will wait for it to firmly hold above 85,000, while ETFs resume sustained inflows and interest rate expectations cool down; then there will be a chance for 88,000–92,000. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 As the US-Iran war enters its 6th month and the average gasoline price in the US breaks $4, Trump claims that the US has reached a Venezuelan oil agreement, gaining majority control of 17 oil fields in Venezuela with proven reserves exceeding 6.5 billion barrels through cooperation with private enterprises. According to Ajian, this "largest oil deal in world history" might be Trump's winning move to ease domestic inflation pressure. 6.5 billion barrels account for one-fifth of Venezuela's reserves. If implemented, global oil pricing power will completely return to Washington. This is basically an open exchange of resources for votes in the next election. However, based on my experience passing through Venezuela, the infrastructure is as bad as or worse than Africa's. It may take several years from reaching the agreement to actual oil production, so the short-term impact on oil prices will be limited. Ordinary traders only need to understand that oil is not just energy but also a political asset in an election year, especially during the current global energy turmoil. Whoever controls proven reserves holds the ultimate authority to interpret inflation. It is worth paying some attention to energy stocks like Chevron $CVX, which are deeply involved in Venezuelan operations.A scene of ice and fire is unfolding. Is Ethereum following Bitcoin’s lead, or is the rising dollar directly draining the entire pool? The answer is obvious. Bitcoin dropped from 81,000 to 77,000, and Ethereum followed from 2526 down to 2405. But the problem isn’t here. The problem is that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to 0.0296, hitting a multi-year low. Honestly, I stared at this number for a long time, feeling quite uneasy. When Bitcoin rises 1%, Ethereum only follows by 0.3%, and when Bitcoin falls, Ethereum falls even harder. This pattern shows that funds do not treat Ethereum as a mainstream asset for allocation; it’s purely used as a leverage tool. Yesterday, once Powell spoke, the probability of a September rate hike shot up to 60%. The dollar strengthens, liquidity tightens, and all risk assets are under pressure. Ethereum, being the most sensitive to liquidity, is the first to get hit. I’m wondering, how deep will this downturn go? In the past 24 hours, total liquidations have reached $378 million; during non-peak trading hours, liquidity is insufficient, and high-leverage positions collapse at the slightest touch. Over $100 million was liquidated within one hour. Ethereum’s open interest remains high; if it continues to drop, the stampede will only get worse. From 2526 down to 2405, this is not the end, just the prelude. If 2400 doesn’t hold, the next support is 2300. Bitcoin can’t carry Ethereum, and the dollar is still rising. This situation is very unfavorable for the bulls. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 The current market situation is actually more interesting than just looking at the rise and fall. $BTC has fallen from above $81K a few days ago to around $77K–78K. The core reason is quite clear: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh gave a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, and the market has raised expectations for a rate hike in September, putting pressure on risk assets. But right now, I don't want to focus solely on how much BTC has dropped. What’s really worth observing is whether funds have completely left crypto after BTC’s pullback. Currently, the market has not shown a collapse structure where "all assets lose liquidity together." After BTC fell below $77K, it has already started to recover, and ETH, SOL, and others are still maintaining near recent key areas. The market looks more like a repricing after a sudden deterioration in macro expectations. So next, I will divide the market into three categories. The first category: those that can still hold up. For example, $BTC, $ETH, $SOL. $ETH is currently around $2.48K, with $2,400–2,450 being a support zone I’m paying attention to; if it can climb back above $2,500 later, it means this pullback has been well absorbed. $SOL is even more worth watching. It has clearly outperformed BTC before, and now after falling to around $100, if it can hold this area, it might become the first asset to rebound once risk appetite recovers in the next round. The second category: fundamentals are still there, but short-term waiting is needed. $LINK, $AAVE, $UNI, $ONDO. These coins’Wash turned hawkish last night at Jackson Hole!! The exact words were "We still have a lot of work to do," with inflation remaining the top priority. The probability of a rate hike in September surged directly from 35% to 57%. Meanwhile, $BTC dropped from the overnight high of 81,455 down to 76,877, closing at $77,557, a single-day drop of 3.39%. It is now quoted at 77,650, with 24h volume of $32.54B. The entire market saw 481 million liquidated in 24h, with longs contributing $360 million—leverage once again acted as fuel. One thing: during the speech last night, I was watching the order book. At the moment 80K broke, over three thousand short contracts were liquidated in five minutes—that was a programmed stop-loss cascade, not people selling. The ETF side also broke: on 8/28, $202 million was withdrawn, ending nine consecutive days of inflows. But the nine-day cumulative base of $2.8 billion remains, with total ETF assets at $100.9B. If the short-term support at 76K-77K doesn't hold, look to 73,670-75,157. It's the weekend, don't mess around, wait for Monday! #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Walsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote comes as the Fed faces a tough trade-off: inflation remains above 2%, while jobless claims have fallen to 203,000. The key issue isn’t hawkish vs. dovish—it’s whether Walsh can establish a clear, reusable policy framework. Without one, markets may keep repricing Fed-Treasury dynamics, driving volatility across the dollar, Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto Nine straight days of ETF inflows — but there’s more to the story. 👀 Last week, BTC ETFs pulled in $1.92B, while ETH ETFs added another $697M — their strongest run since October 2025. Sounds bullish, right? 🔥 But here’s the catch: IBIT and ETHA are capturing roughly 70–80% of daily flows. That means this might not be a broad institutional wave just yet. BlackRock is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. #DailyOrbit $CORE Many people misunderstand; the real bottleneck for CORE is not popularity, but liquidity depth The flood of posts by external bloggers can bring short-term buying pulses, but it’s hard to solve a long-term problem: order book depth. Recently, after observing multiple rounds of rallies followed by pullbacks, a very obvious phenomenon appears: during slight rises, buy orders come quickly; but once someone places a large sell order, the price shows significant slippage. This indicates that the market’s incremental volume is mostly retail sentiment-driven, and professional market makers’ deep positioning is not yet fully in place. lstBTC’s liquidity itself is steadily improving, but the secondary market liquidity of the CORE token is a separate matter. Market makers usually enter on a large scale when one of two signals appears: either a major product is officially announced with a clear valuation anchor; or a large institutional asset manager explicitly states they are researching the ecosystem. Popularity can spike overnight, but liquidity accumulation happens slowly over months and quarters. So the current market easily experiences pulse-like surges followed by volatile pullbacks. It’s not that the project is weak, but the market depth isn’t thick enough yet. Rather than chasing every rally, a more valuable indicator to track is whether the slippage on large orders is consistently narrowing and whether the order book depth is genuinely improving. $CORE#OKExPlanet昨天（2026年8月28日）美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）发表全球央行年会杰克逊霍尔首秀演讲后，比特币（BTC）和黄金确实出现了罕见的同步大幅下跌，$BTC 一度跌至7.7万美元附近，24小时跌超3.5%，黄金 $XAU 同步回落超2%，一度跌至4500美元附近。 这次下跌，我认为不是黄金避险失效，也不是BTC趋势反转，而是市场重新定价利率。 ① 为什么两个资产一起跌？ 沃什讲话偏鹰，市场迅速提高了对美联储继续收紧的预期。 几个数据已经把逻辑说明白： • BTC： 一度跌至7.7万美元附近，24H跌超3.5% • 黄金： 一度跌超2%，回落至4500美元附近 • 美债： 2年期收益率升至约4.35% • 美元： 同步走强 于是资金交易的是： 加息预期↑ → 美债收益率↑ → 美元↑ → 实际利率↑ → BTC/黄金承压 所以两者同步下跌，反而说明BTC和黄金正在共享越来越多的宏观流动性定价逻辑。 ② 市场其实已经提前涨了一轮 这才是昨天杀跌的关键。 沃什讲话之前： BTC：6.4万 → 8万美元 黄金：突破4600美元 两类资产此前都已经提前交易了部分“未来流动性改善”Walsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote comes as the Fed faces a tough trade-off: inflation remains above 2%, while jobless claims have fallen to 203,000. The key issue isn’t hawkish vs. dovish—it’s whether Walsh can establish a clear, reusable policy framework. Without one, markets may keep repricing Fed-Treasury dynamics, driving volatility across the dollar, Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin. For analysis only, not investment advice. #WalshPolicyFramework #WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation 📰 【Cai Wensheng: AI changes productivity, Web3 changes production relations, the most valuable asset in the future is data】 BlockBeats news, on August 29, at the "AI × New Finance—Innovation Global Tour Hong Kong Station and Yangtze River Stars Program Launch" event, angel investor and CAI Holdings chairman Cai Wensheng stated that AI essentially changes productivity, while Web3 is closer to changing production relations. He believes that if there is only efficiency improvement brought by AI without changes in finance and production relations, the new technology cycle still lacks an important link. Cai further judged that humanity is moving from an industrial society and information society into a data society, and the truly most valuable resource in the future will be data. For enterprises, AI should first be used to improve existing business and organizational efficiency, and then create new business models on this basis... Every time Boss Cai speaks like this, insiders know that the old opportunist’s intuition is sharper than anyone else’s. When he says "data is the most valuable asset in the future," the statement itself is not new; what’s new is that he deliberately chose Hong Kong as the venue to say it—those who understand know it’s aimed at compliant funds and traditional capital. Hearing this kind of talk often makes it clear that big players’ statements are often not to spread truth but to set the tone for the sector. What’s really worth paying attention to is the direction hidden behind the words—whether narratives like data circulation, privacy computing, and decentralized storage will be revived. Once narratives attract funding, activity will first appear on-chain, followed by various shell concepts and Meme projects emerging. The most common mistake retail investors make is rushing into the secondary market to take over positions just because a big player says something. Data is indeed valuable, but what’s valuable is not that vapor project, but projects that can truly run business. At this stage, watch more and act less; wait for the liquidity inflection point. What do you think—is this wave in the data sector pure narrative or is there something real? Which other on-chain projects are secretly working on data-related activities? Add clues in the comments below.👇👇👇 $BTC $ETH $XRP After breaking 77,000, everyone is asking: will it continue to fall? My judgment is: there is still short-term downward momentum, but the "bottoms" of the three major mainstream coins are not on the same dimension—their narrative logic is diverging sharply. --- First, look at the looming threat: the September rate hike Goldman Sachs says a rate hike in September is "extremely unlikely," but the market clearly isn't buying it. After Wash's speech, the rate hike expectation jumped directly from 35% to 50%-60%. Citadel predicts the Federal Reserve will take a more hawkish stance in 2026-2027. The rising rate hike expectations put direct pressure on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, increasing holding costs, and funds may flow back from risk assets to short-term bonds. But HTX researchers point out a deeper logic: the valuation constraints on crypto assets are shifting from policy rates to long-term yields—meaning even if there is no rate hike in September, as long as long-term yields do not fall, the pressure remains. $SOL $ETH $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Just said the bull market called hackers back to work, and today there was a harsh one: piggybacking on Trump to post a Meme, $GOLD plummeted 96% in 1 minute! Today, Trump-related account realtrumpcoins suddenly promoted $GOLD, and many thought the "official concept" had arrived. But a check on-chain showed: the developer holds 600 million tokens, and 15 new wallets took another 224.5 million tokens, totaling 82.45% of the total supply. Then the promotional tweet was deleted, and $GOLD plummeted 96% in 1 minute. The account also claimed to have profited $8.2 million from $GOLD — note, this is only their own statement and has not been independently verified. The most important takeaway from this is: A celebrity account is real, but that doesn't mean the coin they promote is real. Next time you see a celebrity suddenly posting a Meme, don't rush in; first check the account, then check the token distribution. $TRUMP Key focus: Warsh's hawkish signals | BTC ETF ends consecutive inflows | ETH/SOL relative strength | ZEC ETF cash-out | HYPE unlock | ENA buyback reform | AI chip collective differentiation | AVGO earnings report takes over Core analysis: • What Jackson Hole truly changed was not "whether rates will be cut in September," but the market restarting to price interest rate risk. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh continued to emphasize inflation targets and policy constraints in Jackson Hole's speech. After the speech, market expectations for a rate hike in September sharply rose, with the 2-year Treasury yield briefly rising rapidly and the 10-year yield returning to around 4.69%. On Friday, U.S. stocks showed clear divergence: the S&P 500 $SPY fell 0.25%, the Nasdaq $QQQ fell 0.52%, NVDA fell 4.6%, and MRVL plunged 10.3%. This shows that the market is no longer trading simply "whether AI demand is good," but whether AI assets can withstand higher discount rates. The same applies to crypto: previous BTC gains were driven by Treasury buybacks, ETF inflows, and short covering, but after the dollar and short-term interest rates rose again, BTC faced a real macro stress test for the first time. • BTC's structural changes deserve close attention: net ETF inflows were interrupted for nine consecutive trading days, BTC fell below $78,000, but ETH, XRP, and SOL were similar$CORE circulation jumped from 60.19% to 63.65% in just one day — a 3.46% increase. 👀 That means a significant amount of previously locked $CORE has entered the market, increasing the amount of tokens that can potentially be sold. The bigger question is: what will the project team do next? From my perspective, the project has repeatedly relied on a few familiar strategies: ① Unlock gradually, not all at once Wait for $BTC to recover and market participants to expect a rebound, then distribute un$BTC failed to hold the 80,000 integer level this time, dropping directly to around 77,632 USD, down 2.62% in 24 hours. Wash's hawkish speech on Friday night pushed the probability of a September rate hike from 30% directly to 50%, the US dollar index surged to 99.68, and the 10-year bond yield reached 4.722%, both signals indicating tightening. The two major off-exchange US dollar stablecoins remained steady, with 183 billion Tether plus 74 billion compliant US dollar stablecoins, totaling 257 billion USD, showing ample off-exchange ammunition. However, the BTC ETF channel dropped overnight from +179 million to -127 million, indicating institutions are pulling back first. The greed index remains at 68, showing sentiment hasn't caught up with the price correction. Having lost the integer level this time, after retesting 80,000, first hold 77,000; if broken, then look for support around 75,000.🚨 Same Fed speech. Different damage. So why is ETH getting hit harder than BTC? The Fed stayed hawkish, but the market reaction wasn’t equal. $BTC dropped from $81,500 → $76,845, down about 4.7%. $ETH fell from $2,566 → $2,403, losing around 6.3%. That’s a 1.6 percentage-point gap — and it tells us something important about where capital is flowing. The real story isn’t just the Fed. It’s capital preference. #DailyOrbit Application TVL on Robinhood Chain surpasses $1 billion, up by ~100% over the past month. The leading applications by TVL consist of lending, spot, and perp DEXs$CORE is rarely discussed, but recently there have been three subtle fresh changes in CORE Recently, most of the attention across the entire network has been focused on external bloggers collectively making calls, but many more subtle changes that have not yet been widely spread are actually more worth noting. Here is a summary of three fresh developments recently, none of which are official announcements, but come from on-chain traces, developer activities, and fragmented signals from overseas communities. 1. A new feature has appeared in lstBTC protocol revenue: the proportion of passively locked funds is rising Previously, most of the funds in lstBTC were short-term arbitrage funds with high turnover rates. In the last 30 days, on-chain data shows a slight change: some lstBTC is no longer frequently redeemed but has shifted to long-term staking without movement. This is not large holders doing short-term swings but more like institutions testing long-term deposits. The individual amounts are not huge but there is a continuous small net inflow. However, to clarify the boundary: this is only exploratory capital entering, not large-scale institutional positioning, still at a very small trial stage. Correspondingly, protocol fee income has slightly increased, but the growth rate is not explosive, more of a gentle climb. Many in the community have directly interpreted this signal as "institutions massively entering," which is an overamplification; it only indicates that some institutions have started product testing. 2. SatPay no longer only focuses on full commercial launch; a mini pilot version has been split off for internal testing Many are still waiting for the full Bitcoin debit card product to be officially announced and launched at once. However, the latest community developers reveal that the team’s approach has quietly changed. The fully compliant version of SatPay is still slow in regulatory review in Europe and the US, making short-term launch difficult. The project team has now adjusted the pace to first release a functionally simplified closed beta: only enabling lstBTC self-repaying loans, temporarily cutting the debit card spending feature, to first run the lending module and complete risk control and clearing logic tests. In other words, debit card spending will be postponed, and the lending function might come out earlier for small-scale internal testing. This is a subtle adjustment in the roadmap, and the official has not publicly announced this change. 3. Community heat shows stratification: top-tier influencers’ heat is waning, niche KOCs are quietly entering This is the structural change happening in the widely discussed external call wave. High-frequency calls from top-tier influencers like "All-in Brother" have started to decrease, while many BTC-Fi vertical micro-influencers with tens of thousands or thousands of followers have spontaneously begun deep dives into CORE technical documents, lstBTC mechanisms, and stablecoin concepts. Unlike top influencers who directly shout target prices, these small and medium influencers rarely promote get-rich-quick slogans and focus more on technical and mechanism education. An interesting contrast: top influencers bring short-term speculative traffic, while the new small KOCs bring precise users genuinely researching the BTC-Fi sector. But there is also risk: with many new influencers flooding in, it is inevitable that exaggerated interpretations and fabricated undisclosed benefits posts will appear, increasing information noise simultaneously.SOL: The 60 Billion Market Cap Leader Faces a "Smart Money Exodus," Is This Correction Just Beginning? Solana ecosystem TVL hits a new high, MEME frenzy continues, yet SOL plunged 4.36% within 24 hours, falling below the $104 mark. While the market is still cheering the wealth effect of Pump.fun, smart money has quietly withdrawn. With a market cap of $60.5 billion, daily volume of $212 million, and a turnover rate of only 0.35%, this liquidity indicator reveals a harsh reality: retail investors are buying at the top, while institutions are selling off in batches at lower levels. The $102-$110 trading range is the ideal price zone for major players to complete distribution. The "complete silence" in social sentiment is most intriguing: absence from heat rankings, neutral long-short sentiment. The once Twitter-flooding SOL bulls have collectively gone silent—either they've seen the top or are trapped and afraid to speak. This "no cursing, no praising, no action" triple no-state often signals a continuation of the downtrend. Smart money signals point to the core: net short positions, zero net holdings, zero active traders. Professional funds no longer provide liquidity market-making for SOL, meaning market makers see insufficient risk-reward. Without market makers supporting the price, any negative news could trigger a liquidity gap crash. Core judgment: SOL is in a dangerous triangle of "strong fundamentals, poor token distribution, and dried-up liquidity." Losing the $100 psychological support will open the downside toward $85.With the same hawkish speech, $BTC dropped 4.7% and $ETH dropped 6.3%. Why is ETH weaker? The core reason is a shift in capital preference. In this rebound, BTC rose 12.5% from 72458 to 81500, while ETH only rose 7% from 2400 to 2566, meaning ETH underperformed BTC. Institutional funds prioritize BTC when flowing back, marginalizing ETH.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto According to Ajian's verification of the data updated by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on August 28, 78 institutions were approved for a total QDII quota of 6.84 billion USD. The foreign exchange authority's decision to release quotas during a period of market volatility is a strong signal, indicating that regulators are increasing their tolerance for capital outflows. At a time when domestic asset yields are declining, the continuous issuance of QDII quotas is the only compliant channel for private capital to seek global allocation. For ordinary traders, attention can be paid to QDII funds with tight quotas, such as Southern and Dacheng. After the new quotas are issued, the premiums of these funds will decline, making it a good opportunity to enter global assets; for mature on-exchange traders, this quota also provides potential buying power for U.S. Treasury bonds. Ajian doesn't need to say more about what to do next.Distinguish genuine sector trends and avoid the "solo coin surge" trap In a bull market, individual tokens often surge independently while other coins in the sector remain inactive. This is driven by isolated capital pumping, not sector rotation, and the effect is short-lived. A true sector launch involves 2-4 core tokens within the sector rising in volume simultaneously, on-chain data improving in sync, and overall social discussion heating up. If only one coin is skyrocketing while others stay still, it’s a solo coin trend, carrying extremely high risk for chasing the peak. Better to wait for sector resonance confirmation, earn a bit less, and exchange that for a higher margin of safety. $BTC $ETH #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 Finally liquidated all $NEO spot holdings, invested about 5-6000 USD in total, ultimately took a loss of 975 USD and cut losses to exit. The logic for heavily investing in it at the time was optimism about founder Da's proposal Giveback II distributing 26 million NEO + 40 million GAS, with voting on the official website offering about 15.8% annualized GAS yield, but another founder Zhang opposed it and still controls tens of millions of NEO and GAS private keys. Several months have passed with no progress, the proposal is indefinitely delayed. Currently, the coin price is slowly declining with weak rebounds, trading volume is sparse, and the $GAS held by the top three official addresses is 70 million, showing a total supply of 67 million which is clearly inaccurate. The current $GAS price is still relatively strong, but how to resolve this selling pressure?August 2026 marks the 28th month since Bitcoin's halving. Bitcoin fell from $126,198 last October to $58,552 at the end of June this year, then rebounded to around $80,000. The market has restarted discussing that familiar question: Has the bottom appeared? The lows of the previous three bear markets appeared about 25.5 months, 29.2 months, and 30.3 months after the halving. According to historical templates, we have indeed entered the so-called "bottom window." This template has become the most commonly used framework for understanding Bitcoin: halving roughly every four years, then rising, then peaking, falling, and moving on to the next round. But here lie two different questions. One is why the protocol halves roughly every four years, and the other is why market prices also show a similar four-year rhythm. To discuss whether the four-year cycle still works, we need to look at these two things together. Four years written in the Bitcoin protocol: For every 210,000 blocks produced, the block subsidy is halved: 50, 25, 12.5, 6.25, up to 3.125 BTC today. Calculated at an average of 10 minutes per block: 210,000 × 10 minutes = 1,458.33 days, about 3.995 years. At the end of 2010, developer Mike Hearn asked about the origins of parameters like 21 million coins and 10-minute block production. Satoshi didn't explain why each number was chosen this way, but instead provided a formula to show how they work together:First, this time the selling method is more covert. The team didn't use market price dumping. They put TRUMP into the Solana liquidity pool, so when others buy, it automatically converts to USDC. It doesn't look aggressive but has the same effect. The chips are converted into stablecoins, and the selling pressure is released into the market.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto US short-term Treasury yields rise, mainly driven by the market repricing the possibility of Fed rate hikes. On Friday, the 2-year Treasury yield rose 12 basis points to 4.35%, hitting a one-month high. Fed Chair Wash stated at the Jackson Hole symposium that if inflation does not fall back to the 2% target, the Fed will continue tightening measures, directly pushing up expectations for a rate hike in September. The current market probability expectation rose from 36% before the speech to 57%-60%. Impact on assets is generally negative for risk assets: ✅ Stronger USD: Rising rate expectations increase the attractiveness of USD assets ❌ US stocks under pressure: High-valuation tech stocks are more sensitive to rate changes ❌ Cryptocurrencies weaken: Liquidity tightening expectations suppress BTC, ETH, and others ❌ Gold under pressure: Rising USD and real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold ❌ Treasury prices fall: Yield increases correspond to bond price declines A notable feature of this market move is the pronounced rise in short-end yields, indicating the market is mainly trading on the Fed's policy turning hawkish and short-term rate increases, rather than purely trading long-term fiscal risks. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Wash's three sentences, 96,000 people liquidated BTC dropped from 81,000 to 76,000, losing $4,000 overnight. First sentence: The 2% inflation target is "firm and unwavering," and the Fed still has work to do until inflation falls to the target. Second sentence: The current financial environment is difficult to define as "clearly restrictive," meaning it’s not tight enough yet, and there is still room for rate hikes. Third sentence: The probability of a rate hike in September was 35% before the speech, and it surged directly to 60% after the speech. What the market fears most is not rate hikes, but sudden changes in expectations. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 470 million, with 96,000 people taken out. Long positions liquidated 360 million, accounting for 76%. BTC long positions liquidated 137 million, ETH long positions liquidated 80 million. The largest single liquidation was on Binance ETHUSDT, $11.66 million. Bitcoin rose from 64,000 to 81,000 in two weeks, up 26%, then Wash spoke for 15 minutes and it went straight to zero. Rising rate hike expectations — US Treasury yields rising — risk assets under pressure, this chain has been running for half a year, and BTC always takes the hit. The rate hike probability jumped from 35% to 60%, the market is repricing. There is support around 77,000, but Wash has made it clear — inflation won’t stop until it’s below 2%. The essence of this adjustment is not "Bitcoin is failing," but a shift in macro logic. The short-term direction depends on ETF fund flows and whale behavior in the coming days. I won’t add positions below 80,000, waiting for sentiment to digest first. Discuss in the comments, where do you think this wave will fall to? #Stripe consortium reportedly withdraws, PayPal plunges pre-market Latest data Market news shows that the consortium led by Stripe has withdrawn from the approximately $53 billion acquisition talks for PayPal, with PayPal falling more than 13% pre-market. Market prices: $BTC 77620, ETH 2428, SOL $103.2; the crypto market did not show significant correlation. Market consensus Many traders previously viewed this acquisition as an important signal for traditional payments entering the on-chain arena, expecting it to drive PYUSD and expand crypto payment scenarios; after the deal fell through, the corresponding optimistic expectations directly faded, and sentiment in the fintech sector weakened. Underlying logic analysis The termination of the acquisition is more a choice by the consortium after weighing valuation, financing conditions, and regulatory risks, rather than an issue with PayPal's crypto business itself. The narrative bonus disappears, but existing stablecoin and payment layouts will not stop because of this, only lacking a short-term catalyst to accelerate implementation. Personal view (personally inclined to a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice) It's just a theme falling through, not a substantial negative. The big picture still depends on macro liquidity and spot capital flows; a single industry event is unlikely to change the medium- to long-term trend, so maintain your original position rhythm. 【Macro Turning Point | BTC Faces First Major Setback in This Bull Run】 BTC violently rebounded from 65,000 to surge to 81,000. After last Friday's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, this marked the first major macro turning point in this rally. During the speech, the market seemed stable, but it plunged 3,000 points immediately after, breaking below 77,000, with risk assets across the market collectively under pressure. Key summary of the core logic this time: 1. The Fed does not acknowledge inflation cooling; favorable summer data is seen as an illusion, inflation remains high. 2. The 2% inflation target will not be compromised; the stance is to continue maintaining a tight policy. 3. Market pricing directly: the probability of a rate hike in September rose from 33% to 60%. 4. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rebounded simultaneously, liquidity expectations completely reversed. The recent surge was supported by the Treasury suppressing yields and short-term easing benefits; Now the Fed is tightening pricing again, economic data is strong, and there is absolutely no reason for easing. ✅Conclusion: 81,000 is basically the peak of this rebound phase, The blind bull cycle is over, and next is a phase of macro pressure and high volatility consolidation. Go with the trend, the market has changed, and your mindset must change accordingly. #BTC #MacroMarket #JacksonHoleThe Treasury wants to use TGA to buy back long-term bonds, so the market will naturally be happy in the short term But the more this sounds like "fixing a water pipe," the more we have to ask why the water keeps leaking. Buybacks can improve liquidity, can suppress long-term yields, and even give traders a breather; but they can't reduce the deficit, nor can they magically create new long-term buyers This is the most awkward part of the current US Treasury market: the Treasury wants to lower financing costs, while the Fed wants to prove it is still serious about fighting inflation. One wants to ease bond market pressure, the other wants to tighten financial conditions, and the pricing signals get squeezed in the middle If all problems are ultimately kept alive by technical operations, the market will slowly learn one thing: don't just look at yields, look at who is holding down the yields #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解 麻吉大哥，割肉了。 市场这波下跌后，他14小时前平掉了部分ETH多头仓位。一笔就亏了196万美元。 但这不是重点。 重点是，他手里现在还捏着4.1万枚ETH，价值约1亿美元。仍然是链上最大的ETH多头。 除了ETH，他手里还有7.5万枚$HYPE （约603万美元）和45枚$BTC （约350万美元）。 这次割肉有意思在哪？ 第一，这不是他第一次被ETH多头仓位搞得焦头烂额。8月11日，他一个25倍杠杆的ETH多单就遭过部分强平，当时平了约730枚ETH。往前翻，6月份他的ETH多单还浮盈过4500万美元，最后实亏了3400万。 第二，他为了补保证金，连Bored Ape都卖了。5年前85枚ETH买的猴子，只换回9枚ETH，亏了89.4%。把卖猴子的钱全数加仓ETH多单。 第三，他累计亏损已经超过8000万美元，甚至可能接近1亿美元。但还在扛。 所以现在问题很简单： $ETH 现在2,450美元附近晃悠，麻吉大哥手里4.1万枚ETH的多单成本在哪？没人知道。但一个累计亏了快1亿美金的人还在加仓，要么是他疯了，要么是他真的看到了什么。📊 TRUMP (Yellow Hair Coin) Effective Information Summary and Analysis: Open Interest: Has been continuously rising since August 24, increasing from about 20 million to 38 million, nearly doubling, with a large accumulation of new positions. Funding Rate: Recently alternating between positive and negative; there was a clear negative rate around August 24 (shorts paying longs), but the latest data has returned near the zero line, indicating a balanced battle between bulls and bears. Active Buy/Sell Volume: Since August 24, active buying volume has dominated, with continuous accumulation by buyers, though the gap between buying and selling has recently narrowed. Long/Short Account Ratio: The proportion of long accounts is significantly higher, showing market sentiment leaning bullish. Candlestick Trend: TRUMP price is consolidating around 2.75, with resistance at 3.12 above and support at 2.73 below, currently in a short-term range-bound oscillation. --- 🧠 Core Judgement Open interest doubled but price did not break through, indicating many new longs are trapped at the current level; funding rate returning to zero suggests bulls are no longer willing to pay a premium; marginal weakening in active buying volume shows declining buying support. Directional Judgement: In the short term, expect a rally above 3.0 to lure more chasing funds, then combined with high concentration of long positions, a washout and drop will occur. Recommendation: Do not chase longs at the current level; wait for price to rise to the 3.1–3.2 resistance zone to take profits in batches or open shorts, with stop loss set above 3.3. If price breaks below 2.73 directly, it indicates the main force chooses to push down decisively—follow decisively. $TRUMP Elon Musk is boasting again with a bold call—SpaceX to reach $3.5 trillion in annual revenue in 7 years? Why this sounds more like a “market cap narrative” Morgan Stanley predicts SpaceX’s annual revenue will hit $3.5 trillion by 2040, but Musk claims it can be achieved early by 2033 (7 years from now). Currently, SpaceX’s annual revenue is under $20 billion. To surge to $3.5 trillion in 7 years (equivalent to over 10% of the current entire US GDP), it would require a compound annual growth rate exceeding 90%, nearly a 190-fold increase. This already breaks conventional business logic? The total global commercial launch plus communications market capacity is currently less than $2 trillion. Even if SpaceX monopolizes 100% of the entire industry, it still can’t reach $3.5 trillion. To achieve this, three extreme assumptions must be met: · Routine Starship operations: launch costs pushed to the limit, officially replacing traditional intercontinental aviation and high-end logistics. · Orbital space AI computing power: deployment of tens of thousands of compute satellites, becoming the world’s largest space cloud data center. · Global infrastructure monopoly: direct satellite-to-phone connections fully taking over billions of terminals and smart devices’ underlying communications. The $3.5 trillion revenue figure seems more like Musk’s “visionary slogan” to break the secondary market ceiling and forcibly tie in the trillion-dollar AI concept. Achieving $100 billion to $300 billion within 7 years would already be a commercial miracle; the $3.5 trillion slogan is just a con 🤡! #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 Fundamental Research Report $FLOW / Flow (Public Chain/L1) $3.20 Straight to the point: Flow ($FLOW) comprehensive score 55/100, rating narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking down the three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, token value transmission still needs observation. Project Overview: Flow (token $FLOW), public chain/L1 track. Focused on NFT dedicated chain, NBA collaboration. Competitors include ETH, SOL. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days. User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $3.6K, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment. Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (accounts for +3.50% of circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparison): circulating market cap, Flow $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. FDV: Flow $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Annual revenue: Flow $3.6K, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Flow undisclosed, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 821,917.8x, FDV divided by revenue 1,150,684.9x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Final qualitative assessment: fundamentals solid (score 55/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overdrawn expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Tracking indicators: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Public data inference, not investment advice. Conclusions invalid if core indicators change by more than 30%. This concludes this issue of the research report. If you find it useful, please follow. #FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitWhy Does Bitcoin Rise? ⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice; the crypto market is highly volatile. The factors can be divided into six layers: supply side, demand side, macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, chip and leverage, and narrative belief. 1. Supply Side: Scarcity, Four-Year Halving (Fundamental Basis) Total permanent cap of 21 million coins, no additional issuance. Every 4 years, the block reward halves, cutting miners' daily new Bitcoin output in half, reducing new selling pressure in the market. - Historical pattern: The market often trades ahead of halving expectations; major tops mostly appear 12-18 months after halving. - Current status: 94% of Bitcoin has been mined, with fewer new coins entering circulation; a large amount of coins remain dormant long-term (whales hoarding, cold wallets), reducing liquid supply on exchanges, so small amounts of capital can push prices up. 2. Demand Side: Real Buying Pressure, Institutions Are the Biggest Variable This Cycle 1. US Spot ETFs BlackRock and other ETFs provide pension funds, family offices, and ordinary Americans a compliant channel to buy BTC; continuous net inflows into ETFs represent ongoing passive buying and are the most important indicator of the mid-term trend. 2. Public Companies Hoarding Coins (e.g., MicroStrategy) Companies convert part of their cash into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, continuously buying and directly absorbing circulating supply. 3. Global Retail and High Net Worth Allocation Treat Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge fiat overissuance and geopolitical risks. 3. Macro Liquidity (Most Impactful, Primary Short-Term Driver) Bitcoin is a highly elastic risk asset, very sensitive to US dollar liquidity. 1. Fed rate cut expectations and declining US Treasury yields Lower risk-free interest rates cause funds to flow out of bonds into stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin; when Treasury yields surge, Bitcoin usually comes under pressure. 2. Weakening US dollar makes Bitcoin priced in dollars more likely to rise. Simply put: In a loose liquidity environment, Bitcoin is more likely to bull; when liquidity tightens, even strong narratives are easily suppressed. 4. Regulatory Policy Expectations - Positive: Clear crypto legislation in the US, softer SEC stance, ETF approvals, more countries allowing compliant holdings, opening space for incremental capital inflows. - Negative: Total bans and strict regulations directly suppress the market. A large part of the bull market is trading on "expectations of improved regulation." 5. Chip Structure + Leverage Short Squeeze (Short-Term Surge Catalyst) 1. Long-term holders on-chain do not move: large amounts of BTC locked in cold wallets, not selling, shrinking circulating supply. 2. Derivatives leverage: When price breaks key resistance, massive short positions get forcibly liquidated; shorts buying coins to close positions become passive buyers, further driving prices up—this is a short squeeze. Many rapid big green candles come from leverage liquidations, not all from spot buying. 6. Narrative Belief: Value Consensus Two core narratives: 1. Inflation resistance, hedge against fiat depreciation: governments can print money, but Bitcoin’s total supply cannot be changed. 2. Decentralized digital value storage, not controlled by any single country. The narrative itself doesn’t directly push prices up but attracts capital willing to allocate, turning the story into real money. Conversely, what can interrupt the rise? 1. Fed hikes rates again, liquidity tightens; US Treasury yields keep rising. 2. ETFs shift from net inflows to sustained large redemptions, institutional funds withdraw. 3. Global economic crisis, all risk assets crash together. 4. Major negative regulatory news. 5. Excessive leverage buildup followed by concentrated long liquidations causing a crash. In summary: Halving tightens supply as the foundation; macro liquidity determines the overall environment; ETFs and institutional funds provide incremental buying; regulation opens institutional space; leverage and sentiment amplify price swings. Looking at a single factor alone leads to misjudgment; multiple factors must resonate together to produce a major bull market.Bitcoin Quietly Ties to Gold: A New Capital Shift Amid High-Level Long-Short Tug-of-War BTC is repeatedly tugging at historical highs, and the market is showing a meaningful change. Although spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, profit-taking and options hedging are simultaneously surging. More importantly, BTC's correlation with the US Nasdaq is weakening, while it is increasingly in sync with gold, which keeps hitting new highs. This indicates a fundamental shift in institutional allocation logic. In the past, BTC was treated as a high-beta risk asset—rising with liquidity easing and falling with tightening; but against the backdrop of sovereign debt expansion and fiat currency credit dilution, long-term large funds are positioning it alongside gold as a non-credit asset base. However, short-term trends remain constrained by derivatives. A large volume of options positions accumulates at key price levels, and market makers' delta hedging intensifies the volatility and shakeouts. Any apparent breakout or breakdown patterns are mostly battles over existing contract positions. At this stage, pairing BTC with gold as a hedging combination, combining gold's defensive baseline with BTC's liquidity flexibility, better withstands macroeconomic fluctuations than betting on either alone. Do you think BTC and gold strengthening in sync indicates increased demand for safe havens, or does it reflect a fundamental shift in institutional long-term allocation? #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 $MSTRSTRATE current price 127.39, down 6.55% in 24h, US stock market closed for the weekend. The underlying stock closed down 7.34% yesterday, the token only followed the decline without discount, this resilience is worth discussing. 📰 News: Canaccord upgraded the rating combined with Strategy turning profitable, but the underlying stock still closed down 7.34% yesterday, clearly profit-taking despite the good news. 🔧 Technical: RSI14 at 73.1 overbought, MACD golden cross with shrinking red bars but no death cross, MA7/MA25 bullish alignment still intact, this looks more like a high-level consolidation. 🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens only down 0.25%, US stock market closed for the weekend, overall risk appetite not collapsed, MSTRSTRATE's decline is more about its own profit-taking. 🎯 Today's view: I tend to be optimistic, the core is that the underlying stock's news supports profitability, the token did not fall into discount, and the technicals have not broken the bullish structure. 📊 Token 127.39 (-6.55%) | Underlying stock 127.31 (-7.34%) | Premium +0.06% | US stock market closed for the weekend 💎 Summary: Follow RSI to see if it cools down quickly and changes in underlying stock premium, high-level volatility will be significant. #USStockTokens #MSTR #BitcoinConceptStocks After WASH's speech ended, the probability of a rate hike in September rose to 61%. On the 28th, the on-chain inflow to exchanges aggregated to +4556 coins. The ETF ended a continuous 9-day net inflow, and the options structure for the 31st settlement is high GEX, with a put wall at 78500. Today, ignoring AI, if Bitcoin's price falls below 77500 (1H close), it will quickly drop toward 75000, with support around 73700 below. Currently, the probability of a September rate hike is very high; at least two hikes are expected, though not necessarily consecutively. There is a strong possibility of another hike in December. Unless inflation falls rapidly, ruling out a December hike is unlikely. The September rate hike somewhat alleviates the threat of yen carry trade liquidations. The main focus now is oil prices; oil must fall below 75 to help ease inflation. There are midterm elections in November, and what new surprises Trump might bring is unknown. September is not easy to trade—short positions are difficult, and long positions even more so.
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