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Resetting the threshold for rate hikes + refusing to give hawkish promises to the market—this is the theme of Wash's speech tonight. Although Wash did not lock in the probability of a September rate hike, he clearly told the market that current rates are not restrictive enough for financial markets, opening up the possibility of a rate hike, especially with the strengthening of the 2% inflation target, which deeply plunged the market into concerns about a rate hike in September. After Wash's speech, the CME swap rate showed a 45.7% chance of a rate hike in September, while traders assessed the probability of a rate hike at 50%! Actually, the core of Wash's speech tonight was still to keep interest rates high in the market. Although the probability of a rate hike in September has increased, I still don't think it will actually happen, because current rates don't affect tech stocks' financing. But for real estate, retail, and other real economy companies, high financing costs are fatal. The current crisis can still be delayed, and if rates continue, these companies will inevitably have to pay a heavy price. So, as I said before, Wash's attempt to guide the market to keep rates high is not only because the data itself lacks sufficient evidence for rate cuts, but more so because Wash's task force needs time to set up a new data mix to support rate cuts. Before the Wash's working group releases data, unless inflation continues to decline, Washey may really have to maintain a hawkish stance and keep the market high in interest rates. Of course, aside from Walsh's own monetary policy, market expectations remain valid. To lower rate hike expectations, aside from August inflation, employment, and economic data, the most direct factor is that energy prices can quickly return to normal. #沃什今晚亮相杰