Orbit Post Sitemap
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 $BTC $SOL An interesting contrast is that during the same period when the Bitcoin Asia Summit in Hong Kong was trending in public opinion, the off-exchange hot search-driven flow market briefly disturbed the market, but in the face of the Federal Reserve's tightening expectations, the emotional premium brought by event marketing was no match.
Sun Yuchen is good at using public events to create short-term liquidity, but this flow-driven market can only temporarily change intraday trends and cannot resist the macro long cycle brought by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
This also gives traders a clear insight:
The narrative and capital structure of the coin itself determine its resilience to macro shocks. Markets driven by hot searches and topic hype are ultimately just brief interludes. What truly influences the mid-term trend of mainstream coins is always the tightening and loosening of the global monetary environment.
💬Question: In this round of macro pullback, which coin in your portfolio has experienced the most unexpected drawdown? 🚨Jackson Hole late-night “hawkish strike”: Different cryptocurrencies have long shown varying sensitivities
On the evening of the 28th Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered his toughest monetary policy stance since taking office at Jackson Hole.
Inflation has fallen short of expectations; if price pressures persist, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. After the speech, the market probability of a 25bp rate hike in September surged directly from 30% to 57.4%. Global risk assets collectively faced a valuation reassessment, with gold and U.S. tech stocks under pressure, and the crypto market was no exception.
Under the same macroeconomic headwinds, market differentiation is very clear:
BTC, as the large-cap anchor of the crypto market, sees deep institutional participation, is sensitive to macro interest rates but relatively restrained in volatility, and more so sets the emotional floor for the entire market;
ETH is tied to the DeFi and NFT ecosystems, with extensive on-chain leverage and lending activities; rising rates directly increase ecosystem capital costs, so its pullbacks are usually larger than Bitcoin’s;
SOL is a high-growth narrative public chain asset, highly dependent on market risk appetite; in a tightening liquidity environment, speculative funds quickly withdraw, often making it the leading laggard in corrections;
TRX’s trend shows a clear split: in the short term, it is dragged down by overall macro sentiment, but occasionally it experiences independent capital pulses due to off-market hotspot events, so macro factors are not its sole pricing logic. $BTC 📉 Gold plunged more than $120 in a single day. Will Bitcoin follow the decline?
The drop originated from Wash's speech, with the market raising expectations for a September rate hike, and a stronger dollar suppressing precious metals.
The macro signals are straightforward: Bitcoin still cannot escape the constraints of dollar liquidity and interest rate expectations.
✅ Short-term bearish: Rate hike expectations rise, leveraged funds flee, market volatility and false breakouts will increase, but a sharp drop in gold ≠ a guaranteed sharp drop in Bitcoin.
✅ The big trend is not directly falsified: Gold depends on real interest rates and central bank gold purchases; BTC still depends on ETF funds, on-chain holdings, and institutional risk appetite. Gold prices only reflect interest rate repricing and do not mean Bitcoin demand disappears.
Keep a close eye on three major signals going forward:
▪ Whether September rate hike expectations continue to heat up
▪ Continued strengthening of the dollar index
▪ Net outflows from spot ETFs
Only if all three worsen simultaneously should deep corrections be feared; if inflation falls and ETF funds stabilize, it is just a valuation correction.
Key reminder: Don't treat gold and Bitcoin as exactly the same safe-haven assets. Both fall during rate hike phases, but Bitcoin is more resilient during liquidity easing.
Don't judge BTC trends solely by gold's daily moves; watching the dollar, interest rates, and capital flows is fundamental.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Bitcoin broke through the $60,000 to $70,000 range that had lasted for seven weeks last week, rising to about $79,000 at one point, up about 25% for the week, marking the strongest weekly performance of the year; from Wednesday to Friday, the total short liquidation across the market was about $4.6 billion. This round of gains appears more like external incremental funds re-entering rather than internal rotation within the crypto market, with funds clearly favoring BTC and ETH; during the same period, only 33% of the top 100 altcoins outperformed BTC, indicating the market has not yet evolved into a full "altcoin season." Going forward, the market will focus on the US PCE, Nvidia earnings, and Jackson Hole; if long-term US Treasury yields continue to be influenced by policy interventions and ETF and stablecoin funds maintain inflows, the relative strength of BTC and ETH may continue. $BTC #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The important part isn't that the Fed sounded hawkish.
It's how BTC and ETH respond after the market has had time to digest it.
Macro has clearly become a short-term headwind, with yields and the dollar strengthening while rate-cut expectations get pushed back.
But one speech doesn't decide the entire crypto cycle.
This is where price action becomes more important.
If BTC can hold support despite tighter liquidity expectations, that would show buyers are absorbing the macro pressure.
If ETH can stabilize and reclaim key levels, the recent weakness could simply be a reset rather than a structural reversal.
The real warning would be different:
Support breaks, rebounds fail, leverage rebuilds aggressively, and spot demand doesn't return.
That's when the correction becomes much more concerning.
So I'm not chasing shorts just because the headline looks bearish.
I'm watching whether sellers can actually convert macro pressure into a sustained breakdown.
Macro sets the environment. Price tells us what the market believes.
For now, bulls need to defend the structure.
#WalshInflationRisk 1. Main Theme of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (Biggest Core Market Variable) 1. US nonfarm payrolls below expectations + Multiple Fed officials collectively hawkish (Walsh, Hamack) - Data: Nonfarm payroll growth is below market expectations, theoretically signaling economic weakness and favorable rate cuts - But core contradiction: Fed Chairs Wash and Hamak emphasize inflation remains the primary risk and signal rate hikes, believing that waiting will only make inflation harder to solve and willing to accept economic cooling to curb inflation - Market impact: ✅ The dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to strengthen; ✅ Growth stocks, tech stocks, and cryptocurrencies are under pressure on rate-sensitive assets; ✅ Contradictory game forms: weak employment (negative rate hike) vs. tough official stance (positive rate hikes), short-term market volatility sharp, with the September policy meeting becoming a key node. 2. Crypto Market Information 1. Trump can no longer influence Bitcoin prices - Interpretation: Early Bitcoin rallies are easily affected by expectations of the U.S. election and presidential policies; Currently, Bitcoin is larger and has higher institutional participation, with pricing increasingly driven by Federal Reserve interest rates, global liquidity, and spot ETF funds, and the medium- and long-term influence of politicians' rhetoric is declining. - Short-term constraints: The biggest market pressure this round is still expectations of Fed rate hikes, which are more fundamental market variables than elections. 3. AI Industry Main Theme (Long-term Technology Trends) 1. a16z raises $1.1 billion in new fund, focusing on investing in the full underlying AI infrastructure (chips, storage, networks, data center hardware) - Landmark Shift:$ETH $BTC The scale of US debt continues to be high, with ongoing pressure from US Treasury supply, and the fiscal deficit pushing up bond issuance, continuously competing for market liquidity; if inflation remains sticky, US Treasury yields will stay elevated, continuing to suppress valuations of stocks, crypto, and other high-risk assets.
Considering multiple variables for the September market, the market is in a strong macroeconomic game window. The Federal Reserve's September meeting is the biggest variable. The current market baseline expectation leans toward maintaining interest rates, but the probability of a rate hike has significantly increased, with inflation data being the decisive factor. The scenarios are very clear: if inflation rebounds, the Fed will signal hawkishness, and Bitcoin will likely remain weak and volatile, trading in the 79,000‑82,000 USD range; if inflation clearly falls, rate hike expectations cool down, combined with spot ETF inflows, there is a chance to challenge the 85,000‑89,000 USD resistance zone again.
Overall, September is unlikely to see a one-sided surge, with a high probability of a high-volatility, oscillating pattern. The risk sentiment brought by Nvidia is a positive buffer, but Wash's hawkish stance, US Treasury liquidity pressure, and large options disturbances remain major obstacles. On the trading side, it is crucial to closely monitor three core indicators: US inflation data, CME interest rate futures rate hike probability, and the 10-year US Treasury yield. A shift in policy expectations is the key to unlocking a new market cycle. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The ones that are rising are all the same type: market caps are all stuck between $0.08B–$0.23B, all falling under the "issuance side" — places issuing new assets, new token formats, new stablecoin issuers. The narrative is singular: money is betting on where the next batch of assets will be born. But whose money is this? The total market is $2.64T, down 5.45% in 24h, while USDT market cap only moved +0.02% in the same period, with almost no new issuance. No new money is entering; it's just existing funds shifting into smaller pools during the retreat. The BTC dominance drop to 59.0% should not be read as altcoins strengthening, but more like a passive result after the main coin fell harder. Fear and greed index dropped from 71 to 68, sentiment is also leaking. Judgment: this is defensive rotation, not the start of a sector bull run; high elasticity just caught the existing funds squeezed out from the large market. The end signal can be verified: USDT market cap growth rate still stuck at +0.02% at this scale, and dominance rate returning above 59.0% — when these two happen together, this round is over. SOL just got a supply-side catalyst — but the headline misses the more important question: How much does a higher burn rate actually change SOL’s long-term supply curve? The approved plan would increase the effective deflation rate from 15% to 30%, with an estimated 18.9M SOL reduction in circulating supply over six years. On paper, that sounds huge. But I wouldn't translate it directly into “SOL holders win.” The real variable is network activity. A higher burn rate only becomes economically meEarnings Observer: AI Demand Spreads from Hardware to Software
In this Nvidia earnings report, the most worth digging into is not the surface revenue and EPS, but the subtle changes in gross margin. Q2 still maintained a high level of 75%, but the Q3 guidance slipped to 74%. Jensen Huang himself revealed that the rising costs of HBM and server memory are eating into profit margins.
Behind this lies a key trend: the voracious AI demand is spreading from simply stacking GPU computing power to the entire upstream and peripheral industry chain.
Looking back, everyone was focused on graphics cards before, but now HBM and memory prices are rising first, and storage giants are gaining more confidence. Companies like Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix, which sell "shovel accessories," are actually entering a phase of volume and price growth bonuses in the next stage. Also, Musk previously packaged spcx as an AI concept, so there might be more big moves to watch out for.
But this is just the beginning. Once the underlying computing infrastructure is mostly built, demand will inevitably transmit to the application side—cloud services, AI agents, and enterprise software are the real battlegrounds for commercial monetization.
So in this AI mega cycle, the focus really can't be locked on Nvidia alone. Hardware benefits from expansion dividends, storage benefits from price increase cycles, and software benefits from landing monetization. The deeper you go into the industry chain, the more hidden gold-mining pits there are. SNDK MU $SKHYNIX #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 China has approved an additional $68.4 billion QDII quota, with regulators actively opening the gate for cross-border capital.
The new quota added on August 28 marks the highest since June 2021, bringing the total approved quota to $183.009 billion, of which $3.72 billion is allocated to securities and fund categories.
More importantly, demand has always been strong: by the end of July, the QDII fund size was about 1.02 trillion yuan, although it decreased by 52.9 billion yuan month-on-month, the US stock QDII ETFs have seen a net inflow of about 3.7 billion yuan since April, keeping the quota in a long-term tight state.
Therefore, the real beneficiaries, in my view, are Hong Kong stocks/overseas tech assets, followed by brokerage and fund management institutions. The market has actually already priced in some of this: the Hang Seng Index surged about 13% in July, and the Hang Seng Tech ETF still saw a net inflow of about 38.87 million yuan in the past five days.
I am most optimistic about Hong Kong tech stocks, especially AI and internet leaders. This is not a short-term stimulus but an opening for long-term incremental funds; it is worth paying attention to now, but since Hong Kong stocks have already risen significantly earlier, waiting for a pullback after funds truly start subscribing is more comfortable than chasing the news. 🔥 THE MARKET IS PRICING THE MEME, NOT THE TREASURY.
$AI — a meme-ish version of Ethereum’s Spirit Animal — ran all the way to a $100M market cap with just $144K in treasury value.
Meanwhile, the real Ethereum Spirit Animal holds roughly $184M in treasury value — about 1,277× more — yet sits around a $285M market cap, only 2.8× higher.
That kind of valuation gap is hard to ignore.
Ethereum Spirit Animal was simply the greatest to ever do it. 🐐
#DailyOrbit $ETH $BTC Today's Market Express! Brief analysis.
Wash's speech at the global central bank has become a key variable for global risk assets recently. The overall tone of this statement is hawkish, clearly emphasizing the unwavering 2% inflation target. The current financial environment does not have sufficient tightening effect. If inflation falls short of expectations, further monetary tightening cannot be ruled out. After the speech, US Treasury yields rose rapidly, the US dollar index strengthened, and the crypto market immediately came under pressure. Bitcoin, as a non-interest-bearing risk asset, faces higher opportunity costs with rising US Treasury yields, leading to a contraction in institutional risk appetite and a sharp market decline, suppressing short-term bullish sentiment. Market interest rate futures quickly repriced, with the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September rising from about 35% before the speech to nearly 60%. The market has shifted from "rate cut expectations" to a "priority on fighting inflation" game.
On the derivatives front, a large Bitcoin options expiry is approaching, with $80,000 becoming the core battleground for bulls and bears. This price level concentrates a large number of call option positions, and market makers' hedging actions will amplify short-term volatility, likely resulting in a market pattern of "repeated tug-of-war near $80,000, with acceleration after a breakout or breakdown." If bulls cannot hold above $80,000, the $78,000–$79,000 range is an important support; only once macro risks ease will there be a chance to test previous highs. After the options expiry and hedging positions exit, the market will more closely follow Federal Reserve policy and ETF fund flows.The easy Orbit take after Jackson Hole is: Warsh was hawkish, so Bitcoin sold off. That is incomplete. Kevin Warsh said inflation is still above 2%, the labor market is near full employment, and financial conditions are not restrictive. Policy, in his framing, should stay focused on inflation — not on easing because markets already rallied. That last part is the part most posts are skipping. Bitcoin just ran from the mid-$60,000s toward $80,000–$81,000 on a mix of positioning, ETF inflows, and l🚨 IRAN, OIL & CRYPTO: THE NEXT BIG MARKET CATALYST?
Iran–Oman talks are raising hopes of a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, pushing oil lower and easing near-term inflation fears.
But Washington is also tightening sanctions on Iran-linked networks, so geopolitical risk is far from gone.
$BTC is holding around $79K, while $ETH sits near $2.5K.
If diplomacy gains momentum, lower oil prices and softer risk premiums could give crypto another boost. 📈
#DailyOrbit #Will Wash's appearance at Jackson Hole tonight clarify the policy framework?
Damn! Wash's speech tonight, frankly, is just for show. What the market wants to hear is: how much inflation triggers rate hikes, how bad employment has to get before easing, and whether the Fed will intervene when long-term bonds go haywire.
PCE is still at 3.7%, with about half of the basket items rising over 3%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 203,000, but he acts like he didn't see it. He nailed 2% down hard, yet says financial conditions aren't tight enough. $SPY touched 775.3 intraday, filling the gap from August 18 and then intensifying volatility. $MU led the hardware sector downward completely, with capital rotating to the software side directly suppressing the price recovery space for chip stocks.
At the market level, SPY surged up to 775.3 confirming the filling of the 769.5—772.5 gap, which means the short-term upward momentum has weakened after the clearing of short positions above. QQQ closed at 716.43, down 0.65% on Friday, bringing the price close to the lower band again, currently trapped between the double gaps of 722.1—729.2 above and 713—714.5 below.
In the hardware sector, $MU led the decline and maintained a downward trend, reflecting that short-term funds are withdrawing from hardware. Software performed strongest during the week, with capital flowing out of hardware and into software, forming the main driver of the current price structure divergence between sectors.
The bullish scenario triggers if QQQ holds the 713—714.5 gap support and pushes capital to flow back into hardware. If $MU can stop falling and stabilize in the current downtrend, the market will have a chance to challenge the upper gap resistance of QQQ at 722.1—729.2.
The bearish scenario focuses on the continuation of capital rotation and escape. Once QQQ breaks below the 713—714.5 gap, the downside space will open. At that time, $MU’s downtrend will further amplify the selling pressure on the chip sector, dragging the overall tech stocks weaker.
The failure point of the structure depends on whether the software sector experiences a follow-up decline. If software falls from a high level and capital fails to re-enter hardware targets like $MU, simultaneous pressure on both ends will cause the rotation logic to completely fail.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the effectiveness of QQQ’s test of the 713—714.5 gap and whether capital reallocates back to hardware when the software sector declines.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键For $BTC and $ETH, the ETF picture leans toward "real volume." The mechanism is simple: Inflow → AP creates shares → must buy spot. Outflow → sell-off. No leverage involved. Current figures: • BTC: 9 days of inflows; AUM >$100B (~6% of market cap). • ETH: Inflows are relatively strong compared to fund size. • SOL: Narrative support, though not yet effectively "locking up supply" like BTC. Divergent impacts: BTC → sets a floor, anchors price levels. ETH → amplifies beta. SOL → capital rotation. MU.S.-CANADA UNEXPECTEDLY TRADE TENSIONS – IS THIS THE FIRST SHOT OF A NEW WAVE OF TARIFFS, AND IS THE MEME 🐸 TOO CALM? There's a story I think crypto traders shouldn't see this as just a drama between the U.S. and Canada: THE TRADE WAR IS HEATING UP AGAIN. The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on about $20 billion of Canadian goods after trade talks suddenly broke down. Canada is not backing down. Ottawa announced that it would launch corresponding retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. The most notable point? The two sides had previouslyBTC plunged 5.6% late at night! The real culprit behind the crash is only one person: Walsh
Last night’s sharp drop in Bitcoin had many people scrambling for reasons, guessing big holders dumping, miners selling, or capital fleeing.
Honestly, these are all secondary noises. The sole core culprit of this round of market dive is Walsh’s Jackson Hole debut speech.
This was also his first time since taking office to officially set the tone for monetary policy at the global central bank conference, completely overturning the market’s earlier easing fantasies and dousing risk assets with a bucket of cold water.
After the speech landed last night, BTC directly plunged from a high of 81455, breaking key supports along the way, hitting below 77000 at the lowest, with a single-day maximum drop exceeding 5.6%. Liquidations across the network broke through $300 million, and the bulls were thoroughly wiped out in this phase.
Many think his speech wasn’t aggressive and didn’t explicitly call for a rate hike, so why was the market reaction so severe?
Because experts can read between the lines; every sentence was a naked hawkish signal:
First, he directly denied short-term inflation improvement.
The market had been fantasizing about cooling inflation and a Fed slowdown based on recent favorable PCE data. But Walsh poured cold water, emphasizing that short-term data warming does not mean an inflation trend improvement; the risk of high inflation still exists, so don’t be blindly optimistic.
Second, he firmly defended the 2% inflation floor and would not budge.
He repeatedly emphasized that the 2% inflation target is a rigid bottom line and will not be compromised. This statement sealed off market easing expectations, effectively telling everyone openly: the anti-inflation task is not over, and the rate hike path can restart at any time.
Third, he bluntly stated the current financial environment is loose.
This was the most market-crushing sentence. He clearly stated that current financial conditions cannot be considered tight; current interest rates are insufficient to suppress inflation. The subtext is very straightforward: current rates are even somewhat loose, with room for further hikes.
Once these three statements came out, market expectations flipped instantly.
Originally, the market predicted only a 35% chance of a September rate hike; after the speech, it surged to over 56%, nearly a coin toss. US Treasury yields rose rapidly, the dollar rebounded strongly, and global liquidity tightened instantly.
The crypto market itself is highly dependent on macro liquidity, and BTC is the global liquidity barometer.
Once liquidity expectations contract, all high-level risk assets immediately face valuation and premium cuts; last night’s plunge was the most authentic reaction.
Previously, the market had been rebounding on rate cut expectations, oscillating above 80,000, with everyone betting on easing.
Walsh’s speech this time directly ended the market’s easing fantasy and completely shattered this round of bullish sentiment.
Let me also explain the most critical current market levels; beginners should not blindly bottom-fish:
The 80,000 level above has now completely turned from support into strong resistance.
Any rebound approaching 80,000 will basically face pressure and fall back; it will be extremely difficult for bulls to regain a foothold.
The core lower range of 75,000–78,500 is currently the bulls’ last lifeline.
This area holds $5.7 billion in bullish orders and positions, serving as the largest short-term liquidity support pool. If this range is effectively broken downward, there will be room for a deeper correction below.
To sum up practically:
At this stage, the market is entirely dominated by Fed policy expectations. As long as Walsh remains hawkish and does not release easing signals, rate hike expectations will hang overhead, making it very difficult for Bitcoin to achieve a sustained reversal.
The short term currently belongs to a weak correction phase; bottom-fishing has very low cost-effectiveness, and impulsive entries are easily trapped halfway up the mountain.
This round of decline is not a technical correction but a macro expectation repricing.
Going forward, watch more and act less; patiently wait for the market to stabilize before considering opportunities.
$BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
⚠️Speech more hawkish than expected!
Latest data
Walsh clearly states inflation risks remain, September rate hike expectations rise sharply, U.S. Treasury yields climb. Market prices: $BTC 79120, ETH 2433, SOL $101.7; high-volatility coins face heavier selling pressure, leveraged longs concentrated in liquidations.
Market consensus
Some directly conclude the market has peaked and the bull run is over; more institutions see this as a short-term disturbance, with no large-scale outflows from spot ETF funds, and the long-term narrative remains intact.
Underlying logic analysis
Rising rate hike expectations essentially mean tightening liquidity expectations, putting short-term pressure on valuations of risk-free assets. But this time it’s just a re-pricing of expectations, not an actual rate hike yet. The emotional impact is swift; whether it continues depends on upcoming inflation and employment data reinforcing hawkish views. Short-term high volatility will become the norm, with more spikes and sharp drops.
Personal view (leaning toward a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
Macroeconomic negatives can’t be ignored, but no need to panic sell. Try to reduce leveraged positions, hold spot base positions patiently, don’t chase rebounds after sharp drops, wait for emotions to fully digest before considering adding positions. Is XRP about to be listed on Nasdaq? Don't rush to count your money yet.
The fact is: a Ripple-backed XRP treasury company is just one shareholder vote away from listing on Nasdaq. This is definitely positive for XRP.
As the core institution of the XRP ecosystem, Ripple pushing the treasury company to go public essentially moves XRP's institutional narrative from over-the-counter to the public market. Once successfully listed, Nasdaq's liquidity and compliance endorsement will bring stronger price discovery and institutional allocation demand to XRP.
But the short-term risks are obvious: it still requires shareholder approval, and procedural uncertainty remains. Before it actually happens, the market is trading on expectations, not actual capital inflows.
XRP has already benefited from the narrative bonus of Ripple settling with the SEC. If this listing goes through, the institutional logic will be further strengthened.
For those chasing highs: keep a close eye on the voting results, and be cautious of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" style pullback after the listing. A retracement with support is much more reliable than blindly chasing the rally.
Source: CoinDesk
#XRP #Crypto100WLast night, Powell's speech completely chilled the bulls 🥶
The logic was straightforward: inflation hasn't reached 2%, but employment and consumption data are ridiculously strong.
Meaning, the economy hasn't collapsed, so why should I cut interest rates?
He didn't say he would raise rates directly but left a backup plan, managing expectations very clearly.
The crypto market shook violently last night, which is totally normal.
Assets like BTC are amplifiers of global liquidity 📉
Once interest rate expectations rise, marginal funds' risk appetite instantly drops to zero, and those with high leverage run first.
But you ask me what I think?
He spoke well, but I don't listen 🙉
Don't look at what he said, look at what he did.
With 40 trillion in debt hanging there, does he really dare to raise rates?
Interest payments alone are enough to keep the US government going, and if he raises again, the debt bomb turns into a nuclear bomb.
So my judgment is: just talk to manage expectations, but in reality, he doesn't dare to act recklessly.
The market will be scared in the short term, but don't be led by officials' speeches.
When the data really loosens, the expectation of rate cuts will return faster than anyone else.After the signals from Jackson Hole landed, the market narrative has quietly shifted. The focus has moved from "when will interest rates be cut" to "will high interest rates persist longer," directly touching the sensitive nerves of risk assets.💧
Bitcoin has fallen from $79.5K to around $77.5K, with over $200 million in long liquidations accelerating the correction; profit-taking after the big surge in August is reasonable. The key now is the $75.3K support—holding it means the recovery structure remains intact; if broken, the 200-day moving average near $71.5K will become the next line of defense. Currently, it looks more like digestion of policy expectations rather than a fundamental reversal in demand.
Ethereum simultaneously dropped below $2.5K, hovering in the $2.43K–$2.44K range, but its relative performance is slightly stronger. BlackRock-related buying and continued ETF inflows provide spot support; it’s worth watching whether the $2.47K–$2.5K area can be reclaimed to maintain the recent bullish structure.
The more core variable is liquidity. Cooling expectations for rate cuts mean risk assets lose a major catalyst; this does not necessarily point to a bear market but rather that valuations need to adapt to the new funding environment. Short-term volatility is inevitable; patience is needed to observe key levels.🪙
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile; the above is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously. $BTC $ETHTonight's highlight at Jackson Hole is not about whether there will be a rate hike in September, but how Waller will redefine "inflation." What the market truly cares about is whether he can provide a clearer policy framework 🧐.
The current environment is quite delicate. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. have fallen to 203,000 for two consecutive weeks, showing some employment resilience; however, July's PCE year-over-year still reached 3.7%, and core PCE remains above 3%, far from the 2% target. This means the Federal Reserve is not yet in a comfortable zone of "inflation resolved, safely pivoting."
Therefore, tonight's speech is more like a repricing event rather than a money-printing night. If Waller emphasizes inflation risks and remains vague about September, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may be supported, suppressing gold and BTC in the short term; conversely, if he expresses concerns about financial conditions and long-term rates, risk appetite could continue.
Notably, the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.6%, and the 30-year yield has broken 5%, with the autonomous rise in long-term rates already imposing constraints. Previously, BTC's return near $80,000 was mainly driven by about $2.8 billion net inflows into ETFs over eight consecutive days; if the speech leans hawkish, this capital flow could quickly reverse.
More than the wording, I am paying closer attention to the actual movement of the dollar and Treasury yields after the speech, as well as whether BTC can hold above $80,000—prices are often more honest than words 📉.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously. $BTCWhen Walsh Speaks, Markets Shake
Walsh’s hawkish tone pushed rate-hike bets higher, strengthening the dollar, lifting Treasury yields, and pressuring risk assets. But I still expect a September rate cut.
Why? The Fed’s decision will depend on the next two weeks of inflation and employment data, not one speech. If jobs weaken and inflation cools, expectations could reverse sharply.
Short term, $BTC and $ETH may face more pressure. But I wouldn’t rule out a September cut yet. BTC touched 81,000 last night and then pulled back; now I actually don't want to chase BTC anymore.
This round has risen from 62,000, with continuous net inflows in ETFs, but futures OI hasn't simultaneously gone out of control, indicating it's not purely a leverage ceiling; spot funds are indeed coming in.
However, the altcoin season index is still at a low level, and funds haven't fully dispersed.
So going forward, I only watch two signals:
1. Whether BTC can hold around 78,000 and retake the previous high.
2. Which coins show OI and trading volume rising before the price starts moving.
My judgment is very clear:
If BTC doesn't break down, the market remains bullish.
But the next truly resilient opportunity likely won't be in coins that have already risen a lot, but in those where funds have entered but the price hasn't clearly started yet.
Now is not the time to chase recklessly; it's time to start picking the next batch of frontrunner coins.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC $ETH $SOL Gold Drop & $BTC Outlook
Gold plunged $120+ intraday as hawkish comments lifted rate-hike bets and strengthened the dollar. That’s a short-term headwind for $BTC as tighter liquidity can pressure risk assets and trigger deleveraging.
Still, gold’s drop alone doesn’t confirm a BTC trend reversal. I’m watching three signals: September rate expectations, dollar strength, and spot ETF flows. If rates stay hawkish and ETFs see outflows, BTC could test lower support.
#WalshPolicyFramework Wash's speech at Jackson Hole sent a clearly hawkish signal: he emphasized that inflation must return to the 2% target quickly enough, otherwise the Fed still needs to further tighten policy, and he did not give the market a clear rate cut commitment.
The market has already started repricing, with the September rate hike expectation rising from about 35% to about 60%, and short-term US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening in sync.
For $BTC and altcoins, the short term is a liquidity headwind: rising rate expectations → higher US Treasury yields → stronger dollar → pressure on risk asset valuations, with high-beta altcoins, Meme, and highly leveraged contracts usually hit harder.
But this does not mean the market is directly entering a bear market. Wash did not explicitly announce a rate hike; the follow-up still depends on employment, CPI, PCE, and financial conditions. If data continues to be hot, the market may further trade "higher for longer"; if employment weakens and inflation cools, rate hike expectations may quickly fall back, and risk assets could see expectation repairs.
$BTC $ETH need to be aware that this is not a simple pullback to respond to this sub-macro level change; bulls should be cautious.
Currently, the pattern shows signs of touching short-term support levels.
Short-term bearish bias, mid-term waiting for data confirmation; the biggest risk now is not a normal pullback but a threat to the bulls.
Personal sharing, not investment advice
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Core Breakdown of Wash's Jackson Hole Speech
1. Monetary Policy: Forward guidance canceled, purely data-driven. Inflation not returning to the 2% target means no easy easing; market expectations for a September rate cut have sharply cooled, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have moved rapidly, and risk assets face short-term pressure.
2. Crypto Attitude: No negative statements, acknowledges crypto has integrated into the financial system, recognizes Bitcoin's value attributes, but clearly states there will be no backstop or bailout for the crypto market.
3. Market Outlook:
✅ Main Logic: Macro liquidity is slightly tight in the short term, $BTC and $ETH are likely to experience volatile consolidation.
✅ Opportunity Direction: After interest rate expectations stabilize, capital will continue to flow back into crypto; meme sectors need to wait for overall market sentiment to improve. $SNDK #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 🚨 MARVELL JUST SENT A WARNING SHOT THROUGH THE AI TRADE.
This is the part of the AI rally everyone needs to watch.
$MRVL crushed expectations: 📈 Revenue: +37% YoY
🏢 Data Center: +46%
🚀 FY27/FY28 outlook: Raised
And yet… the stock dropped nearly 8% pre-market. 👀
That’s the real story.
The AI trade may be entering a phase where “good” isn’t good enough anymore. Investors are becoming more selective about which AI names deserve premium valuations.
#DailyOrbit $BTC Rollercoaster
$80K one moment, $77.7K the next.
Treasury buys bonds → shorts squeezed → price pumps. Then Warsh talks hawkish → liquidity fears → profit-taking dumps.
Up on news, down on news.
$80K rejected for the third time. Bulls and bears both waiting — next trigger: September jobs data, or the next jawbone from the Fed.
Only certainty? More volatility ahead#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Originally, everyone was waiting for Wash to give a statement about a rate cut in September, but after the speech ended, the answer was completely the opposite.
On the evening of August 28 Beijing time, Wash delivered his first keynote speech during his tenure at Jackson Hole. He did not directly announce a rate hike in September, nor did he provide clear meeting guidance, but his stance was clearly hawkish: if inflation does not return to 2% fast enough, the Federal Reserve "still has work to do." He also explicitly stated that the current policy rate remains the main tool for adjusting inflation.
This statement is actually quite significant.
Because July's PCE year-on-year has already risen to 3.7%, core PCE remains at 3.3%, and Wash believes recent data does not prove that inflation has improved sufficiently. More notably, he confirmed that the 2% PCE target remains fixed and has not changed due to previous discussions about adjusting inflation measurement methods.
So after this speech, the biggest change is not that the Fed has decided to hike rates, but that "rate hikes" have been put back on the table.
CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike jumped from about 35.4% before the speech to about 55.7% in one go. In other words, funds have now seriously started betting on a possible 25 basis point hike in September.
This is also why I think this speech is the most noteworthy.
Wash did not give the market a clear answer, but he clarified the criteria: employment is currently relatively stable, the economy still has resilience, and financial conditions have not shown obvious tightening effects, so the Fed has no reason to ease policy early out of concern for a weak economy.
In other words, the market had been trading on "weaker employment → rate cuts," but now Wash has refocused attention on "inflation not coming down → policy may continue to tighten."
And from the actual market perspective, funds have already given their answer.
In U.S. Treasuries, the 2-year yield rose to 4.36% that day, the 10-year to 4.728%, and the 30-year also surpassed 5.21%; the dollar index rose 0.61%. BTC clearly fell from its high, with a drop of up to 3.34%, closing around $77,414. Gold fell even more sharply, with spot gold down about 3.19%.
This shows that what is truly being repriced now is not just "whether to hike in September," but the entire liquidity environment.
Personally, I think the impact of Wash's speech going forward may be more worth watching than the September meeting itself.
Because he has already sent a signal: don't expect the Fed to tell you months in advance exactly what it will do.
Wash explicitly stated that this speech should not be understood as traditional "forward guidance," nor did he provide a specific rate hike timetable.
This means the market may become more "data-driven" going forward.
Early September employment and inflation data will directly determine whether the market continues to bet on rate hikes or pulls the probability back toward rate cuts.
So the most dangerous thing now is not the rate hike itself, but that many assets have already risen in advance based on easing expectations.
Especially BTC.
BTC just recently surged near $80,000, ETF funds have also shown clear inflows again, and now suddenly with a stronger dollar and rising short-term Treasury yields, short-term profit-taking naturally begins to loosen.
I would not conclude that BTC's long-term trend has ended based on this one night of speech.
But at least one thing is certain: above $80,000 is no longer an easy level to break through.
If BTC can stabilize around $75,000–$80,000 and ETF funds continue to flow in, then this pullback looks more like a reaccumulation after digesting negative news.
But if the dollar continues to strengthen, the 2-year Treasury yield continues to rise, and BTC falls below $75,000, then the previous surge needs to be reassessed.
This time, the price has already told us half the answer.
Wash did not announce a rate hike, but he has made the market start fearing rate hikes again.
And what will truly decide the market next is not Wash's next words, but whether the September employment and inflation data can give him a reason "not to hike."
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 77.5K has reclaimed, but this is not yet a complete validation of the previous judgment. OKX public market data shows $BTC around 77.82K, with the 24-hour low still above 76K; the previous post required a pullback to around 76K first, then a stable reclaim of 77.5K. The first part did not happen, so the rebound cannot be considered confirmed.
Bitcoin expert Feng previously worried that the 77.5K stop-loss zone might be pierced; new information shows an unidentified trader attempting to go long around this area, setting 76.5K as invalidation. The difference between the two is not just rhetoric, but whether this recovery can withstand a pullback.
My adjustment is to continue waiting: if the 77.5K pullback holds, I will consider this recovery valid; if it falls back below and approaches 76.5K again, the short-term long logic fails first. I will not package "not triggered" as a successful validation.
Will you first watch the 77.5K pullback support or the 76.5K risk boundary? This is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC Pullback & Key Support
$BTC surged to $81,500 before dropping back near $77K. The pullback was driven by three factors: Wash’s speech offered no clear policy signal, the $6.4B options expiry amplified volatility around $80K, and traders took profits after a rapid move from $64K to $81.5K.
Now $77K is the key level. Hold it, and BTC could consolidate and recover; lose it, and $75K may come next. ETF inflows will be another key signal this week.
#WalshPolicyFramework After last night's Jackson Hole speech, I caught a key change for the crypto space: Federal Reserve Chair Powell clearly stated that they will reduce the normalization of forward guidance and place more emphasis on new data before each meeting.
Three key points:
① The 12-month PCE inflation is 3.7%, and the 6-month is 4.1%, both significantly above the 2% target.
② The unemployment rate is 4.1%, actual consumption growth has exceeded 2% over the past four quarters, and the economy has not yet shown a clear slowdown.
③ He emphasized that the current policy focus should be on price stability and did not pre-commit to the next interest rate path.
This means the market will find it difficult to get a clear rate cut script in advance. BTC may continue to fluctuate in the short term around each PCE, CPI, and employment data release.
My judgment boundary: one speech cannot directly decide interest rates, nor can it determine weekend price movements. I will continue to watch whether the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, spot trading, and leverage confirm each other in the same direction.
Next, what do you think will most affect BTC:
A. Inflation
B. Employment
C. ETF funds
D. Market leverage
Data source: Federal Reserve speech on August 28. Personal record, not investment advice.
$BTC #macrodataOn August 26, StarkWare announced that its Quantum-Safe Bitcoin (QSB) solution had completed a Bitcoin mainnet transaction, calling it the first quantum-resistant BTC transaction. First, distinguish the timing and evidence: both the event and the project announcement occurred on August 26, followed up by Decrypt, Unchained, and other media on August 27. Public on-chain records show that the transaction was confirmed at block 964,199, costing an output of 10,000 satoshi; However, "first" and "quantum-resistant" are still StarkWare's definitions of the solution's nature and cannot be equated with the entire Bitcoin network achieving independent security authentication. QSB addresses a specific problem. Currently, BTC signatures rely on elliptic curve cryptography; If sufficiently powerful quantum computers emerge in the future, the Shor algorithm could theoretically derive private keys from publicly available public keys. QSB did not change Bitcoin's consensus rules, but instead used "signature grinding" to perform massive off-chain computations, searching for transaction hashes that meet certain conditions, and shifting more security to the antigen image capability of the hash function. StarkWare has published papers and implementation code, and transactions are ultimately sent directly to miners via MARA's Slipstream channel. The value of this experiment is to prove that there is an executable temporary protection path within existing rules: without waiting for a soft fork, specific UTXOs can be transferred into a structure that is harder for quantum attacks to open. For long-term holders and custodians, it transfers abstract "quantum migration"Once Waller spoke, the market began repricing interest rates.
What really unsettled the market last night was that Waller loosened several key assumptions the market had heavily relied on recently.
Waller first gave a very strong economic assessment: the U.S. economy remains resilient, and the labor market is close to full employment.
This means the Federal Reserve currently has little reason to tolerate higher inflation for the sake of employment.
Immediately after, he shifted the policy focus back to price stability.
July's PCE year-over-year was still as high as 3.7%, with core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year. Waller clearly stated that current data is insufficient to prove a sufficiently clear improvement in underlying inflation.
The most critical sentence was: if inflation does not return to 2% quickly enough, the Fed still has work to do.
The market understood.
The probability of a rate hike in September quickly rose, 2-year Treasury yields jumped, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets began repricing accordingly.
So the scene tonight is very consistent: gold down, $BTC down, U.S. stocks down.
These assets seem completely different but share a common pricing chain behind them.
Recently, the market had been betting on: inflation falling → rate hikes ending → interest rates declining → liquidity improving → high-valuation assets expanding again.
What Waller did tonight was to push this chain back one step.
Moreover, he sent a longer-term signal.
Waller explicitly said the market should not always look to the Fed for the next trade, expressed a desire to reduce forward guidance, and leave unconventional monetary policy more for true crisis times.
This essentially tells the market: the habit of expecting the Fed to bail out asset prices whenever they fall needs to be recalibrated.
So tonight's decline, on the surface, looks like a hawkish speech.
Deeper down, the market is recalculating three things: whether there will still be a hike in September, how long rates will stay high, and how much the Fed Put is worth going forward.
Currently, the most important indicator to watch remains U.S. Treasuries.
If going forward only the 2-year continues to reflect rate hike expectations while the 10-year holds steady, this is closer to a repricing of short-term policy rates.
If both the 2-year and 10-year rise rapidly together and the dollar continues to strengthen, it becomes more complicated.
That would mean the market is simultaneously trading a more hawkish short end plus a rising long-term term premium.
This is the combination that will truly continue to suppress the Nasdaq, gold, and BTC.
So what Waller changed tonight is not just a one-day move.
He reminded the market again: as long as inflation has not truly returned to 2%, easing will not come easily.After watching Wash's recent speeches
I roughly figured out his style
He really likes to play Tai Chi
The content he talks about is almost the same as before
In summary, it boils down to that one sentence
"Inflation is still very high right now, and there is still a big gap from the 2% target. As long as inflation data shows no signs of improvement, the option to raise interest rates still exists"
This "rate hike" stance directly caused gold prices to fall back near 4450
US Treasury yields rose again
Crypto and US stocks naturally came under pressure again
At the same time, Wash did not mention anything about buying back US Treasuries
Actually, the Fed only needs to manage inflation and employment
The fate of US Treasuries is the Treasury Department's concern
The current situation is that the Fed insists on suppressing inflation
The Treasury insists on suppressing US Treasury yields
A contradiction from both sides
But currently both are just exchanging words
No actual actions have been taken
In this situation
The September rate meeting really becomes a 50-50 guessing game
The market dares not bet against easing expectations
So gold prices can only move in a weak oscillation
There are only two turning points to look forward to next
One is for Bassett to continue to intervene to save US Treasuries (suppress yields) or release related signals
The other is hoping the Fed will dovish (as hard as climbing to the sky)
The next key point is the CPI data on September 11
This is the last important data before the Fed's rate meeting on September 15
Based on Wash's traditional data-driven style
This data will very likely influence whether the rate decision will be a hike
So let's wait and see the direction
$XAU $XAG $BTC
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $CORE I think the market trend isn't over yet; don't just focus on the price chart.
Currently, $BTC is not performing well, but the on-chain TVL is rising 7% daily, b14g's re-staking locked value has reached 4 million USD, and many new DeFi projects are emerging. The ecosystem has grown a lot compared to three months ago.
An interesting phenomenon is that large holders keep selling, yet TVL continues to increase.
Have the tokens really fallen into retail hands, or are more flowing to protocols and institutional contracts?
Although b14g's scale is small, its weekly growth rate exceeds 20%. If the ecosystem keeps developing, there will be opportunities later. Of course, there is also the risk of ecosystem hype, so don't be blindly optimistic. The truly hawkish aspect of Warsh's speech is not just the "possible rate hikes."
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh clarified four points at Jackson Hole:
The 2% inflation target is fixed;
US PCE inflation year-over-year is still at 3.7%, with an annualized rate of 4.1% over the past six months;
The current financial environment is hard to call restrictive;
Short-term interest rates remain the Fed's main tool to control inflation.
He also refused to give the market a clear interest rate path, believing that too much forward guidance would limit the Fed's subsequent decisions.
Before the speech, $BTC once surged to around $81,280, then fell back to around $79,000 after the speech. This reaction was weak but did not trigger a panic sell-off, indicating that some hawkish expectations had already been priced in by the market.
The real observation point going forward is whether BTC can continue to hold the $78,000–$79,000 range over the weekend without ETF funds participating. If it can, it indicates that spot support remains; if it quickly falls back to the previous breakout range, the market may reassess the risk of "higher rates staying longer."
Do you think this pullback is just the news settling in, or the start of a weakening trend?
$BTC $ETHToday, the whole internet is celebrating the rebound, but I'm staring at that quietly rising number: volatility. Have you ever wondered what will be the first thing to be eaten up when the market starts to "digest the gains"? I checked on-chain data: open interest is rising, but funding rates aren't frantically in sync with the trend. This detail is interesting, showing that this rally isn't built on retail FOMO, but more like big money quietly building positions. BTC and ETH are still the ballast stones; even if they move a bit slower, you'll appreciate their steadiness when they pull back. As for the new faces of $H, $LAB, $CORE, $ASTER, their rise is indeed tempting, like a little dress shining in a shop window. But you have to understand, those are just for decoration, not for wearing as a coat. If you only have $1,000 in capital and go all-in on a story, that's not investing—it's gambling on luck. Lock in downside risk, keep plenty of ammunition, and wait for more certain opportunities to arise—that's the more comfortable position at this stage. The logic behind the bullish side is: the derivatives market hasn't overheated, the fuel squeezed by bears is still there, and once it breaks through previous highs, it's easy to see an accelerated rally. But the risk is also hidden in the same place—if volatility continues to amplify and prices stagnate, that's a typical distribution signal: leveraged funds will flee first, and the decline in counterfeit assets will be smoother than you think. The train of a bull market will always return, but principal only has one chance. ✨ The above is just my personal observation and does not constitute any trading advice $BTC $ETHAggregate BTC daily candles into 2M K-lines, then look at a simple double-line momentum indicator. Historically, several obvious bullish crossovers roughly appeared during bull-bear transitions. The latest bullish crossover has already occurred, but note: this 2M K-line is not yet complete.
Additionally, from 24 candles to 22 candles, then to 21 candles, the cycle seems to be accelerating.
Also, BTC experienced a pullback today, with the Fear and Greed Index at 63. It's actually hard to predict the short-term movement. I think currently focusing on two levels is enough: STH-RP around 70K, and the 365D SMA around 83K.
These two levels represent the short-term holder cost and the long-term trend line, respectively. How the price moves around them next might be more meaningful than guessing daily ups and downs. Just like before, it consolidated around 62K–65K for a long time before finally choosing a direction.$BTC & $ETH WEAK — MACRO IS ADDING PRESSURE
$BTC has fallen to $77.4K while $ETH trades around $2.4K as the short-squeeze effect fades and profit-taking accelerates. More importantly, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole: September hike odds rose from 35.4% to 55.7%, while the 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.31% and the USD strengthened.
With liquidity tightening, crypto remains vulnerable. This could be a leverage reset before the market finds balance. Good morning, let's talk about Walsh's speech last night. On August 28, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh delivered a landmark speech at the Jackson Hole Forum marking his 100th day in office. The speech did not directly mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, but the signals it sent will genuinely influence the crypto market for the rest of the year. Let me clarify it in plain terms. To sum up the core sentence: rate cuts are very likely to be delayed, and the market will struggle to enter a one-sided bull market in the short term, but AI-related tracks will have more opportunities. 1. In the future, the Fed will not "spoil" interest rates in advance, causing more market volatility. There used to be a habit in the crypto world: when Fed officials make announcements, the market will bet on rate hikes or cuts in advance, and Bitcoin often emerges early in a rally. But this time, Walsh made it clear: in the future, he will try to give less 'forward-looking guidance' and won't tell the market early on how interest rates will move. He gave an analogy: if the Fed always gives expectations, the market trades according to expectations, and the Fed then looks at market prices to make decisions, it's easy to fall into a 'mirror between each other' dilemma, making mistakes and ending up with ordinary people paying the bill. What does this mean in the crypto world? It's hard to see smooth market hype ahead of rate cut expectations. Around the time interest rate news is released, the market is more likely to swing wildly, contracts will be harder to trade in the short term, and institutions will tend to wait and see, not daring to take a big position. 2. Inflation remains stubborn—don't rush to expect rate cuts, short-term bull market expectations are cooling This is the most 'hawkish' part of the entire speech. Washh bluntly said: Inflation is still going well$TRUMP actually rose 20% today, from 2.31 to 2.93 USD, with market cap returning to 700 million. From the all-time high of 73.43 USD to the current 3 USD, the drop exceeds 96%.
About 1 million wallets have collectively lost 3.2 billion USD, while the project team has earned 1.4 billion. The founder entered at zero cost, and retail investors are left holding the bag. This is not investing; this is paying a faith tax to the big "yellow hair".
⭕️⭕️⭕️ The project team even wrote on their official website — "TRUMP is designed as a symbol of support." In plain language: this coin has no practical value; it’s just a digital peripheral. A coin relying solely on sentiment, can it really have development prospects or make money?
Total supply is 1 billion, currently 250 million circulating, 75% still held tightly by the "yellow hair," unlocking slowly over three years. Now the price moves are all emotional; when unlocking happens, it will be even more unbearable.
#TRUMP关联地址减持，抛压会否延续？ 🚨 CRYPTO ISN’T BREAKING — IT’S RESETTING.
The recent weakness in crypto looks less like a market collapse and more like a macro-driven reset.
$BTC has pulled back toward $77.4K, while $ETH is around $2.4K as the initial short-squeeze momentum fades and traders start taking profits.
The real pressure isn’t coming from crypto itself.
It’s liquidity.
Hawkish signals from the Fed are pushing rate expectations higher, while Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen.
#DailyOrbit MACRO PRESSURE, BUT CRYPTO STILL HAS AN OPENING
The hawkish tone at Jackson Hole pushed September rate-hike expectations higher, while the 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.31% and the dollar strengthened. However, this is not an outright bearish signal for crypto. Treasury buybacks could support liquidity, while ETF demand remains an important pillar. If inflation cools and tightening expectations reverse, liquidity could rotate back into risk assets creating a stronger setup for$BTC and $ETH Jackson Hole's most crucial speech has already been delivered, and the market quickly responded. Fed Chair Wash did not give a clear next rate decision, but the overall tone was clearly leaning toward "continuing to prioritize inflation." He emphasized that the 2% PCE inflation target is clear and fixed, and the U.S. economy remains resilient with employment near full employment, but inflation remains too high. A more critical statement is: only when the Fed is confident that underlying inflation is returning to target quickly enough, "there is still work to be done." Federal Reserve The market did not interpret this as an ordinary neutral stance. After the speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged from about 35% to 60%, the yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury rose to a one-month high, and the dollar strengthened in tandem. In other words, what truly drove risk assets down was not a "hawkish speech," but the entire interest rate market beginning to reprice. Reuters 1. BTC fell from 81,000 to 77,000, declaring the 80,000 breakout a failure? $BTC Currently around $77,674, down 3.88% in 24 hours. The past day's high reached $81,499, but then it fell steadily, hitting a low of $76,888. In other words, BTC not only lost the $80,000 mark but has already pulled back more than $4,500 from the intraday high. This is a clear difference from previous market conditions. A few days ago, when BTC repeatedly fluctuated around $80,000, the core logic was still "after the breakout, will there be new funds to take over?" But after Wash's speech was realized, the market facedWash's speech is useless; the crypto market's ups and downs don't depend on interest rates
Wash spoke tonight, but the market didn't react at all. $BTC dipped slightly by 0.89%, $ETH fell 1.3%, while US stocks actually rose a bit. He talked about financial innovation and AI, without mentioning any September rate cuts, clearly stating "Today is about discipline, not decisions."
Why no rate cut? Officially, the inflation target is 2%, but in reality, Americans know the true inflation is much higher. Cutting rates can save on national debt interest and stimulate businesses, but once rates drop, inflation immediately soars, which is a bigger cost. The Fed is stubbornly holding off on cuts because it fears runaway inflation; everything else takes a backseat.
As for this crypto rally, don't overthink it. From 63,000 to nearly 80,000, with ETFs seeing nine consecutive days of net inflows, it's purely because US tech stocks can't rise anymore, so funds have nowhere else to go but into crypto. It has nothing to do with interest rate expectations.
In short: Wash's speech was just a formality; the crypto market has its own rhythm.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC $ETH $TRUMP