Orbit Post Sitemap

DON’T CONFUSE A STRONG RALLY WITH A FREE PASS TO TAKE RISK $BTC pushed above $80K before facing selling pressure, while altcoins remain much more volatile. Keep $BTC and $ETH as the core. Treat $H, $LAB, $CORE, $ASTER and $BEAT as higher-risk plays—not foundations. Don’t chase every pump. Protect capital and wait for confirmation. 👀 $BTC $ETH#Daily上市比特币挖矿企业正经历商业模式的重构,CoinShares 预测其 AI 相关营收占比将在 12 月攀升至 70%。这一数据标志着行业重心已从单纯的哈希率竞争,彻底转向以人工智能和高性能计算为核心的多元化收入结构,传统挖矿业务正逐步退居次要地位,成为支撑企业现金流的基础设施底座 这种剧烈的结构性转变,并非短期市场炒作所致,而是基于底层经济模型失效后的必然选择,预示着整个加密矿业生态正在被重新定义 深层原因在于 2024 年 4 月 比特币 网络发生的'减半'事件,区块奖励从 6.25 比特币骤降至 3.125 比特币,直接导致挖矿利润率大幅收缩。面对生存压力,矿企开始复用其现有的电力供应能力、冷却系统以及数据中心场地,将其转化为承载人工智能和高性能计算任务的基础设施 Woofun AI 整理数据显示,2025 年初 AI 营收占比仅为 30%,但这一比例在短短数月内迅速翻倍。这种基础设施的跨界复用,不仅解决了算力闲置问题,更让矿企得以切入由大模型训练与推理驱动的庞大算力需求市场,实现了从单一加密货币矿工向综合算力提供商的身份跃迁 值得注意的是,这一转型的商业规模极为惊人,上市矿企签订AI company Genius Group (GNS. US) has shifted its strategic focus to rebuilding its Bitcoin cash reserves and plans to restart its reserve plan by issuing securities. Details of the initial round of financing show that the company plans to issue $12.5 million worth of perpetual preferred shares. Such securities are non-convertible and do not dilute common equity equity; the risk is borne by the preferred shares. Holders enjoy monthly dividends and liquidation distribution rights, with rights that are higher than those of common shareholders. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that this structural design aims to avoid immediate dilution of common shares, but the specific funding cost remains to be determined. From a long-term goal perspective, Genius Group (GNS. US) expects its reserves to reach $827 million by fiscal year 2031. The initial fundraising only covers 1.51% of the target, and the remaining $814.5 million gap needs to be filled through follow-up financing to achieve the total reserve target. The huge gap means that a single financing cannot solve the problem, resulting in significant subsequent pressure. Filling the funding gap requires multiple issuances of preferred shares or other financing methods, with the scale far exceeding the initial quota. The scale of each round depends on investor demand. Key documents will disclose specific interest rates, prices, fundraising scale, and fund allocation plans, rather than just disclosing cap rulesLast quarter, when Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its peak, I suggested that the bear market is not a systemic flaw but part of Bitcoin's early adoption process. Earlier this year, I explained why Bitcoin could reach $11 million by 2036. I still believe this scenario is possible, but what path will Bitcoin take to get to that point? Bitcoin experienced a hundredfold increase in early cycles, but returns in recent cycles have narrowed significantly. If this trend continues, Bitcoin will eventually become more and more like a mature asset, and returns will gradually normalize. The power law model summarizes this change well. (Refers to Bitcoin's price and time showing a relatively stable power function relationship.) As asset size expands, returns gradually decline. For more than a decade, Bitcoin has been following a highly stable long-term trajectory. I acknowledge the explanatory power of the power law framework and believe Bitcoin may continue to roughly follow this trajectory for years to come. But I am no longer convinced that power law is sufficient to describe Bitcoin's ultimate phase. As Bitcoin matures, returns decline and volatility decreases. Falling volatility not only changes the scale of capital Bitcoin can absorb, but also expands its use in the financial system. Lower volatility improves Bitcoin's risk-adjusted returns and makes financing with Bitcoin as collateral easier. When Bitcoin becomes premium collateral in the global financial system, the scale of dollar credit backed by it could expand significantly. Diminishing returns can reduce volatility and reduce volatility根据 Lookonchain 的火眼金睛,这家平时只进不出的铁头功公司,竟然在短短 24 小时 内,向交易所存入了整整 3,000 枚 BTC,价值约 $2.37 亿。你要知道,币圈有个雷打不动的公理:币提往冷钱包是真爱,币存进交易所……那大概率就是要把你当成流动性给办了。 首先是信仰崩塌的风险。Metaplanet 之前的形象一直是就算日元崩了我也要买大饼的死忠粉,这次突然大手笔搬砖进场,市场第一反应就是:“坏了,连浓眉大眼的他也憋不住要出货了?” 这种心理预期一旦发酵,很容易引发散户的踩踏式抛售。 其次是资金面的实际压力。$2.37 亿 的现货抛压一旦释放,盘面短线肯定要打个寒颤。尤其是在当前流动性并不算宽裕的情况下,这 3000 枚大饼要是砸下来,足以在 BTC 的日线图上画出一根难看的避雷针。 目前市场正处于高度敏感期,大家的神经比拉满的弓弦还紧。我个人的预期是,Metaplanet 这波操作大概率不是为了清仓跑路(毕竟他们刚建立起的机构信誉没那么廉价),更有可能是在做套期保值或者利用这笔 BTC 作为抵押物进行融资/杠杆操作。 但不管他们的动机多纯洁,币进所”这个动作Recently, it has become quite clear that BTC and gold are moving more and more in sync, no longer with BTC simply following the risk sentiment of the US stock market as before. I think the simultaneous rise of both is more about changes in capital allocation logic. Now institutional funds not only buy gold for hedging but also treat BTC as a digital version of a scarce asset to allocate together. The continuous net inflows into ETFs show this; the rise is not purely driven by risk-averse panic. Previously, BTC was more of a high-risk speculative asset, with its price swings depending entirely on market risk appetite. Now, with increased macro uncertainty, some funds classify it alongside gold as an inflation hedge and a way to offset fiat currency risk, so the correlation between the two has significantly increased. From a practical crypto trading perspective, this change is worth noting. Going forward, trading should not only focus on the crypto market itself; fluctuations in gold, the US dollar, and US Treasury bonds will have a greater impact on BTC. If gold weakens, BTC can easily be dragged down as well. Leverage at high levels must be reduced; don’t blindly bet on a one-sided breakout. When macro conditions shift, market volatility can come suddenly. $BTC $XAU #BTC高位多空拉锯,黄金联动增强 This is purely personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.$SNDK has many fans who knew there would be a crash on Friday but didn't know the reason $MU Last night, Western Digital, Micron, and SanDisk all dropped more than 2%. First blow: The Fed turned hawkish, the probability of a rate hike soared, and high-valuation tech stocks got scared. Second blow: Nvidia's earnings exploded, soaring 8%, with funds frantically pulling out of storage to chase it. Third blow: Storage itself surged too much (SanDisk up 460% in a year), earnings guidance missed expectations, triggering profit-taking and a stampede to exit. With these three arrows fired simultaneously, a crash was inevitable! #沃什强调通胀风险,9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯,黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK SK Hynix $xSKHY Roller Coaster Ride: AI Storage Logic Intact, But Short-Term Overheating Requires Caution Let's talk about the US stock market. SK Hynix (SKHY) experienced a roller coaster today: it dropped 5% intraday, then turned positive in the afternoon, rising 0.56% to 2,618,000 KRW, still far below the peak of 3,000,000 KRW on August 23. The Korean stock market was even worse on August 28, with KOSPI down 1.79%, Samsung Electronics down 3.38%, SK Hynix down 4.45%, as semiconductor stocks collectively took profits. The logic remains unchanged: AI's demand for HBM is still very strong, and SK Hynix holds over 60% of the global HBM market share, dominating the market. However, the surge has been too steep; from the beginning of the year to June, semiconductors have risen cumulatively by 226%, with concentration levels exaggerated, prompting brokers to start warning of "overheating." My judgment: The long-term AI storage trend is not over yet, but short-term volatility will increase. Rumors of hyperscalers cutting capital expenditures are the biggest risk. I am holding my position and will add more when the price pulls back to a reasonable valuation. Don't chase at the peak of emotions; this kind of stock is known to humble all skeptics.Panic as BTC falls below 80,000. Few have noticed that traditional brokerages have quietly accelerated their deployments. ⚡️Charles Schwab has already left all its peers behind. In May, they launched BTC and ETH spot trading. At that time, the market consensus was: Established brokerages were just testing the waters. Only three months have passed. On August 27, they officially announced the addition of SOL, AVAX, and $LINK trading. Don't simply think of it as "adding 3 more coins." ✅SOL and AVAX: mainstream Layer 1 public blockchains representing complete ecosystems ✅LINK: foundational oracle infrastructure in the crypto world This represents a generational upgrade in institutional allocation logic: From "just buying some crypto assets" to "starting to allocate a complete crypto ecosystem." The market has already responded: $SOL surged 12.9% in a single day, with a weekly increase exceeding 23% The US spot Solana ETF has seen cumulative net inflows surpass 1.22 billion USD Keep in mind, Charles Schwab's custodial assets scale up to 13 trillion USD. The gap compared to peers is very clear: Vanguard Group outright rejected crypto assets two years ago and has only just started allowing crypto ETFs; Fidelity started early but still has a relatively slow pace in opening spot trading to retail investors. While others are still debating whether to enter the market, Charles Schwab is already planning a crypto asset allocation pool. Industry data: Globally, traditional finance's overall allocation to crypto assets is still less than 1%. There is huge room for growth, and some have already taken the lead. Cathie Wood has stayed incredibly bullish on Bitcoin. Her latest five-year outlook still puts BTC at $1.25 million in her bull case, with $750,000 as the more conservative case. You don't have to agree with the target to understand the bigger point. Institutional adoption is still in its early stages. $BTC #财报观察员:AI demand extends to storage and software Recently, there has been a very clear change in the AI market: Nvidia continues to sell GPUs, HBM is starting to be out of stock, and software companies like Salesforce are beginning to realize AI revenue. So I think the next phase should not only focus on "computing power" but also on what underlying software AI truly needs once it is implemented. This is also why I have been paying attention to $BB. BB is no longer just a phone company. QNX is already running on over 275 million vehicles worldwide; essentially, it is a real-time operating system aimed at automotive, robotics, medical, industrial, and aerospace sectors. AI models are responsible for "thinking," but when Physical AI actually controls car steering, robot movements, or medical devices, the system must be: real-time, stable, secure, and must not crash arbitrarily. This is exactly where QNX fits in. And BB is not just about QNX. Another segment, Secure Communications, continues to serve governments and critical infrastructure. BlackBerry's current products have obtained security certifications including NATO and FedRAMP High. So my current logic for BB is very simple: GPUs and HBM cover the first phase of AI infrastructure, while foundational software like QNX may cover the next phase where Physical AI is truly implemented. BB's next earnings report is expected on September 24, and I will focus on QNX's growth.Charles Schwab plans to open spot trading of $SOL, $AVAX, and $LINK to its 39.9 million accounts within the next few months. Charles Schwab is a major player in traditional retail capital. Ajian believes this marks the institutionalization endpoint for Layer 1, because Schwab's entry means the liquidity depth of these tokens will enter the tens of millions of accounts era. Their pricing logic will shift from community consensus to portfolio allocation, and a slow bull market is about to begin. Of course, on the other hand, Schwab's trading commission is 75 basis points, much higher than on-chain or professional exchanges. Its entry is more for convenient portfolio allocation rather than active trading; its significance lies not in how high the premium might be around the official launch, but in the final confirmation of the asset attributes of these tokens. #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK The Trump Digital Gold ($GOLD) scam executor sold all 82.454% of their GOLD tokens two hours ago, making a total profit of 9,784.6 SOL ($1.01 million). GOLD was created on Solana at 7:38 AM today. After allocation and follow-up, the scam executor bought it and controlled 82.454% (824.54 million) of the token. Around 9:00, Trump's follower account realtrumpcoins (a joint account for Trump merchandise) posted a tweet containing the token address. GOLD price surged rapidly, with market cap reaching a peak of $66 million. The tweet was deleted at 11:48, and the scam executor addresses simultaneously began selling within 30 seconds, causing the market cap to drop from $55 million to $1 million. All the investors attracted into the market were trapped. The scam executors continued to sell, eventually selling all 82.454% of the tokens around 2 PM, exchanging 9,784.6 SOL ($1.01 million) worth of GOLD tokens, which also dropped to $700,000, a 99% lossViewing On-Exchange Buyer Momentum Intensity from SVD Data The chart below shows the 24-hour average SVD (Spot Volume Delta) data for Binance and Coinbase; that is, the taker's transaction difference, where positive indicates buyer dominance and negative indicates seller dominance. From the data, since the market started on August 19, Coinbase's SVD has remained positive, but the three peaks I circled are consecutively decreasing. This reflects a stepwise weakening of active buying strength, a typical volume-price divergence. Binance also shows decreasing peaks, and after August 26, it overall turned negative, marking the deepest seller dominance of the entire month. This can be interpreted on two levels: 🚩 Seller dominance without price decline may rely on passive limit orders or ETF primary market absorption that is not reflected in taker data. If subsequent selling pressure gradually exhausts, essentially the chips are transferring from short-term profit-taking to demand-side holders, which is a digestion process. 🚩 It can be seen that market sentiment has shifted from broad chasing before and around August 20 to a high-level divergence phase, with upward momentum entering a decay period. Looking only at active buying, given the current situation, continuing a large-scale rally would be quite difficult. For a secondary upward attack to occur, selling pressure must be fully digested, or external forces must again catalyze market sentiment.About to cry, is $TRUMP really going to be targeted by regulators this time?😭 Brothers, here comes a regulatory message that’s easy to be overshadowed by market fluctuations. The California legislature has officially passed AB 2409. Two core rules: 🔹Restrict public officials from issuing Meme coins 🔹From 2027-01-01, impose restrictions on trading services for tokens related to political figures At first glance, it’s a bit unsettling. Isn’t this precisely aimed at the political Meme coin sector? Looking back at $TRUMP, its valuation logic is very special. It has no technical narrative, no ecosystem revenue. All its value relies on Trump’s super IP, political heat, and market sentiment speculation. The past play was simple: political traffic could wildly push the price up. But now the regulatory hand directly reaches the issuance and trading ends. If California is the start, and other US states follow suit one after another, then the impact won’t be limited to just Trump coin. The entire political Meme coin sector’s survival space will be greatly compressed. This raises a soul-searching question: The US verbally proclaims embracing crypto innovation, but what is it really embracing? Compliant digital assets, or these meme tokens tied to politicians’ identities and pure traffic speculation? In the short term, the law takes effect next year, so there’s still a buffer period; but the deterrent effect of the regulatory signal has already been sent to the market. The bubble inflated by political IP speculation may face the Damocles sword of policy at any time in the future. ⚡️Signal overshadowed by the pullback: Charles Schwab leaves all traditional brokers behind BTC and ETH launched in May, everyone thought it was just testing the waters. Three months later, SOL, AVAX, and LINK were directly added. From trading the two major blue chips to incorporating public chain ecosystems and on-chain infrastructure. It's not just adding 3 more coins; it's an upgrade in institutional allocation logic. SOL surged 12.9% in a single day, with a weekly increase of over 23%, and spot SOL-ETF net inflows exceeded $1.22 billion. The $13 trillion asset management giant moves much faster than Fidelity and Vanguard. Traditional finance's crypto allocation is less than 1%, and a huge incremental space is starting to open. An announcement is the starting gun for traditional finance entering the market. Short-term fluctuations are influenced by Federal Reserve liquidity, but the long-term allocation trend remains unchanged. Market notes, not trading advice.🧵Charles Schwab has taken a step that puts it ahead of all traditional brokers Many people are focused on hawkish speeches by Powell and panic as BTC falls below 80,000. But they miss a key signal that determines the long-term narrative. Charles Schwab Wealth Management has already outperformed its peers by a large margin. In May, Charles Schwab launched BTC and ETH spot trading. At that time, the market consensus was: just testing the waters. The official statement was also very conservative: giving clients a chance to access digital assets. Test the waters, and if it doesn't work, withdraw. Only three months later. On August 27, an announcement: added SOL, AVAX, and $LINK spot trading. Look closely at the new listings: ✅SOL, AVAX: complete Layer 1 public chain ecosystems ✅LINK: foundational oracle infrastructure in the crypto world Do you see the difference? Before: buy some crypto assets to play with. Now: allocate a whole crypto ecosystem. It's not just adding 3 tokens; it's a generational leap in institutional understanding. The market immediately responded: SOL +12.9% in a single day, LINK +5.5%, AVAX +3.6% SOL once surged above $109, with a weekly increase of over 23% US spot SOL-ETF net inflows exceeded $1.22 billion Charles Schwab, a financial giant with $13 trillion in custody assets. In three months, the trading list expanded from 2 to 5, covering public chains and foundational infrastructure. Can this still be called just testing the waters? #沃什 emphasizes inflation risks, September rate hike expectations heat up I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Last night at Jackson Hole,沃什 made it clear: inflation above 2% is not temporary, financial conditions are not really tight, and the Federal Reserve "still has work to do." I didn't hear "definitely hiking in September," but he really brought the rate hike back from the trash to the table — CME probability jumped from 35% to around 60%, 2Y US Treasuries surged, gold reversed, and the market is already repricing for "higher for longer." From a mid-term perspective, this is a shift in expectation management: no commitment to hike, but leaving the window open. Before September 16, there are still August CPI and nonfarm payrolls; if the data sticks a bit, the Fed will sound the horn. My current judgment — the odds of a September hike are fifty-fifty, but the probability of at least one hike this year is worth watching; avoid being naked long on equities, the dollar is relatively strong, precious metals are under short-term pressure, wait for CPI to give direction before adjusting positions, but I am mid-term haha!!! $BTC $ETH $SNDK $HYPE HYPE **$81.30**, down nearly 3% in 24h, retraced $5.4 from the ATH of $86.7. Today unlocked 14.18 million tokens — **$1.2 billion**, the largest single unlock since launch. 46.6% went to insiders, this is the real risk. In the previous four unlocks, three times the price dropped, but this time the insider proportion is much higher than the August unlock (which actually only received $22.65 million). The market has already priced in part of this, $78 held and did not crash. Good news: whales withdrew $14.83 million HYPE from Coinbase in two weeks, Bitwise ETF pledged $74.9 million, AQAv2 buyback engine is running. Short interest open interest is $1.95 billion, funding rate is negative — once it reverses, it will force a short squeeze. **Be cautious short-term, $81.30**. Support at $78-80 → $73-75 → $68. Resistance at $84 → $86.7 → $92. $78 is the lifeline between bulls and bears; if it holds, expect a rebound, if broken, avoid touching it. $BTC BTC is currently ranging between 77,700–78,000, staying flat for a day (8/29 Asia-Europe session, range 76,847–78,600). The Wash Eagle framework plus 6.4 billion options have been unloaded. The weekend evening session is thin with no new macro data. There will be movement, but most likely it will be a false breakout spike, not a real directional choice. Why will it move tonight? Weekend liquidity is thin: US stocks/ETFs are closed, order books are thin, algorithms and speculative funds like to sweep orders between 22:00–02:00 UTC, so ±1.5% spikes are normal. Options magnetism disappears: 80K Call is worthless, 75K Call is in the money, market makers no longer peg prices, price freedom is high, so a rebound to 79,200 or a break below 76,900 can easily be triggered. Positions are not fully cleared: Open Interest remains high, funding rate +0.01%, neither bulls nor bears have conceded, so there must be a spike at the end of the sideways range. No new catalysts: No US data or official speeches tonight, movements are driven by technical and leveraged positions, not trend-driven. Two possible moves tonight: Up spike 78,600–79,200: If it touches the 4h breakout zone, it will be smashed, but 79,300 means no bullish recognition, a zone to reduce positions on rallies. Down spike 76,900–76,847: If it sweeps 76,800 but does not close below, it’s a stop-loss hunt; only if it closes below will 75,800 (the true market average) be considered. Summary: A day of sideways is not a bottoming, but a sharpening before the weekend cut. There will be spikes tonight, but the true direction after the Wash will be determined only after the 9/16 FOMC PCE data. Holding 77K sideways = continuation of shakeout; failure to reclaim 76,847 = test 75.8K; failure to hold 79,300 = continued pressure below 80K. $BTC Is the crypto market calm during the US stock market weekend closure? Many people have a misconception that when the US stock market is closed and spot ETFs cannot be traded, the crypto market remains uneventful over the weekend. The reality is quite the opposite. While US institutional investors rest, BTC and ETH continue to operate around the clock, but market liquidity significantly contracts, and order book depth thins considerably. A drop in trading volume does not mean volatility will subside. In a low-liquidity environment, it takes relatively little capital to quickly break support or challenge resistance levels, triggering mass stop-loss orders—commonly referred to as liquidity sweeps. Without ETF institutional buying as a buffer, weekend price action is mainly driven by whales, futures traders, and retail investors, which greatly increases price randomness. In the absence of breaking news, prices mostly remain range-bound with limited trend continuation. However, any sudden regulatory or geopolitical news can amplify price swings due to the thin order book, often causing gaps at Monday’s open. Practical advice: try to avoid heavy positions and high leverage trades over the weekend. Support and resistance levels lose much of their reliability; don’t blindly enter positions based on false breakouts caused by spikes. It’s unnecessary to bet on a quiet weekend market—better to trade less than to stubbornly bear risk. Trends with real reference value usually become clearer only after the US stock market opens on Monday and ETF funds return to the market. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落,期权到期放大关口博弈 Charles Schwab adding SOL, AVAX, and LINK to crypto accounts this time, what I really think is worth paying attention to is not "just adding three more coins." I just looked through some discussions, and some people on X are already shouting that traditional funds are coming, but I don't think there's any need to get so excited. Charles Schwab giving you an entry point to buy coins and 39 million accounts actually starting to buy coins are two completely different things. This distinction must bThe Trump Digital Gold ($GOLD) scam operator sold all 82.454% of the GOLD tokens they held 2 hours ago, making a total profit of 9,784.6 SOL ($1.01 million). 1. The token was created on Solana at 7:38 this morning. The scam operator controlled 82.454% (824.54 million tokens) by allocation and subsequent purchases after launch. 2. At 9:00, the Trump-related account realtrumpcoins (Trump merchandise partner account) posted a tweet containing the token address. GOLD's price quickly surged, reaching a peak market cap of $66M. 3. At 11:48, the tweet was deleted, and the scam operator's address began selling off tokens simultaneously. Within 30 seconds, the market cap plummeted from $55M to $1M. All investors who were attracted to enter the market were trapped. 4. The scam operator continued selling and by 2 PM had sold all 82.454% of the tokens, exchanging them for 9,784.6 SOL ($1.01 million). The GOLD token market cap also fell to $0.7M, a 99% drop.THE HAWKISH MACRO SHOCK HAS BEEN PRICED IN, NOW COMES THE REAL TEST Bitcoin's latest move is a good reminder that crypto can change direction quickly when macro expectations shift. The market was pushing higher, then the Jackson Hole speech changed the tone. Risk assets sold off, leverage was flushed, and Bitcoin dropped sharply from the upper levels toward the $77K region. The important part now isn't simply the size of the decline. It's what happens after the liquidation wave. Nearly $474M in $TRUMP Today it rallyed again, reaching a high of 3.034, currently around 3.00, up nearly 10%, with trading volume directly surpassing 1.1 billion. With the mid-term elections approaching, everyone's attention on this coin is especially high. Looking at the K-line, the short-term rally is quite aggressive, with the RSI already at 71, indicating some overheating. But the moving averages are still supporting upwards, so the structure is not broken for now. The data changes are very obvious. Open interest has clearly accelerated in the past few hours, with the nominal value pushing up quite decisively. This shows that real money is indeed entering the market, not pure sentiment. However, the ratio of long-short accounts has dropped rapidly, falling from relative highs all the way down to around 1.23. Prices are rising, and the proportion of short accounts is increasing rapidly. On one hand, funds are pushing, while on the other, bears are entering to plant mines—this divergence is now quite clear. Plus, Ao Ying Capital shouted about this coin on Twitter, so short-term attention will definitely reach a new level. Coins driven by big influencers are easily amplified in sentiment, can rise sharply, and pullbacks can be rapid. Short-term momentum remains, and open interest is rising; further upward is possible. But the current RSI is already high, and bears are clearly increasing, so the risk of chasing higher is already significant. A safer approach is to wait for it to pull back or see if open interest can remain stable at a high level. If open interest starts to reverse and the long-short ratio continues to move toward extreme bears, the correction speed may be quite fast. Coins that are called out + highly watched have opportunities, but volatility is also affected$TRUMP Brothers, the short position on Trump Coin has already been entered. 500U, 25x leverage, it has already been announced in the group. Essentially, it's a capital politician cash-out coin. The Trump Coin Twitter account posted news about a new coin called "Trump Digital Gold." One moment the market cap was as high as 600 million USD, and within a minute it dropped directly to 10 million USD. Wow, even a pig-butchering scam wouldn't be this fierce. Negative news keeps coming one after another. Public Citizen just released a report stating that Trump-related crypto projects have caused investors to lose at least 4.7 billion USD, with TRUMP alone accounting for 3.2 billion. Out of 1.6 million wallets, 1 million are losing money. The team itself is also running. On August 26, associated wallets withdrew 3.39 million USDC from the Solana liquidity pool, and TRUMP dropped 8% that day. Previously, insiders were exposed for selling 17.25 million TRUMP within a month, cashing out 57 million USD. On September 18, another 28.7 million coins are set to unlock, which is just one of 34 unlocking plans scheduled through 2027. There will be a continuous stream of tokens coming out. So, whether short-term or long-term, Brother Qiang is not optimistic. #沃什强调通胀风险,9月加息预期升温 The recent stress around Aave is a good reminder that DeFi doesn't need a market crash to experience serious liquidation pressure. ETH only moved within a relatively narrow range, yet liquidation activity accelerated sharply as leveraged positions built around long-tail collateral began reaching their thresholds. That's the part many traders underestimate. The danger isn't simply leverage. It's leverage becoming concentrated in the same direction, against assets with limited liquidity. Once pricMy damn enlightened mouth, Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting yesterday clearly pointed out that inflation is still above the 2% target, and the Fed's current primary focus must be price stability. The extremely hawkish tone directly extinguished the market's fantasy of a rate cut in September. Risk assets like $BTC and $XAU fell in response; the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September surged sharply to about 57%; the 2-year US Treasury yield rose about 12.4 basis points. It seems the era of cash is still king has not passed; the market is shifting from betting on rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes. This sharp reversal in expectations is also a trigger for liquidity stampedes. If Warsh insists on not stopping until 2% is reached, then for the rest of 2026, the valuation repair of risk assets will be very painful. Ordinary traders should avoid opening high leverage positions during such volatile expectations. The current market pricing is extremely unstable, and any data disturbance will result in two-way harvesting. Finally, Warsh mentioned AI's productivity improvements, which may be his only chip to prevent a hard economic landing while maintaining high interest rates in the future. If the productivity gains from AI cannot cover debt interest expenses, then Warsh's rate hikes will be suicidal #沃什强调通胀风险,9月加息预期升温 The hot topics can be summarized into four points: first, whether macro devaluation trading will continue; second, whether ETF funds will spread from Bitcoin to ETH and even SOL; third, the pace of regulatory bill advancement; fourth, the short-term rotation between meme and privacy narratives. Funds are clearly "picky"—assets with real protocol revenue, buyback mechanisms, or clear catalysts are more likely to receive overflow capital, while pure trend-chasing altcoins are unlikely to experience a broad rally like in 2017 or 2021. Wash put on another show at Jackson Hole this time. He said no forward guidance, but with just one sentence—"inflation hasn't come down enough, there's still work to do"—the market raised the odds of a September rate hike from 30% to around 50% on its own. Classic Wash style—no roadmap, but leaving the door wider open than you expect. To be clear, September isn't decided yet; it depends on the upcoming jobs report and CPI. If employment worsens again, that 50% will quickly be pushed back; if prices stick around a bit more, a rate hike could really come into play. He doesn't set the tone, the data does. In the short term, don't treat the speech as policy—wait for the two data releases first. $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险,9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯,黄金联动增强 Yesterday after Wash spoke, BTC and ETH feinted between 22:30 and 23:00. Then from 23:00 to 23:30, they moved sideways before starting to drop. Now reviewing, I still have a few gaps in understanding: 1. After Wash's speech, the probability of a rate hike immediately rose from 29% to 55%, with hawkish remarks directly reflected in the data. This was the first signal not to go long. However, the 30-minute chart showed the opposite, causing confusion. The reason is that many people missed the move, leading to anxious sentiment that masked the bearish news initially. 2. The market phase is from the main uptrend completion to the end of consolidation, facing a directional choice. This is the summary of the market phase. If there had been no speech, could one have gone long here? The daily chart is at an absolute high, the 4-hour chart is still high, so going long is temporarily not advisable. One can only wait and watch or wait for the speech to end and a direction to emerge before deciding... The first problem was my wishful thinking; the second was that I knew but did not trust myself.Charles Schwab adding SOL, AVAX, and LINK to crypto accounts this time, what I really think is worth paying attention to is not "just adding three more coins." I just looked through some discussions, and some people on X are already shouting that traditional funds are coming, but I don't think there's any need to get so excited. Charles Schwab giving you an entry point to buy coins and 39 million accounts actually starting to buy coins are two completely different things. This distinction must be made; otherwise, seeing a brokerage add coins and immediately calculating capital inflow is a bit too much wishful thinking. But I am indeed somewhat optimistic about the direction. If I had to pick one among these three, I would still choose SOL. The reason isn't complicated: recognition, liquidity, ecosystem—all these factors are right there. When traditional investors first encounter these assets, SOL might be the easiest to catch their attention. I actually think LINK is a different kind of play. It's not purely betting on a particular public chain but betting that traditional finance will really start to heavily use on-chain infrastructure in the future. If this logic gradually materializes, the potential is actually quite large. AVAX is the one I would observe first. So the real signal Charles Schwab is sending out this time, I think, is not "SOL, AVAX, LINK are about to surge," but that previously traditional investors who wanted to buy coins had to go through the hassle of exchanges, and now they might be able to allocate some directly in their brokerage accounts. At the end of the day, what the crypto world has always lacked is not just assets but entry points. And now, entry points are really starting to open one by one. As for whether more capital will really come in, time will tell. $SOL $AVAX $LINK #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK $BEAT Why did BEAT suddenly surge 19% after its sharp drop? Let's explain with data: how far can the rebound go? Watching the market early at night, I saw BEAT's big bullish candlestick and immediately jumped +19.31%, pulling back from a low of 0.1212 all the way back to 0.1558. Many contract friends ask: This new coin has dropped so much, why did it suddenly rebound? Is it really a reversal? Don't rush to chase yet; I'll break it down using real data on the chart. 1. How much has it actually dropped? The data is shocking. Let's first look at the brutal numbers on the daily chart (screenshot as of today): - 30-day drop: -96.01%, corresponding to about $3.90 30 30 ago - 90-day drop: -86.68%, about $1.17 - The daily chart's historical low once hit 0.1110, while the all-time high was at $10. In other words, this coin has almost completely recovered all previous speculative gains in just one month. 96% evaporated in 30 trading days, a typical new coin scenario of "pushing up—unlocking—collapsing." The direct trigger for the crash is also clear: on August 1, a massive token unlock was launched, releasing about 21.25 million tokens (about 7% of circulating supply), unlocking selling pressure combined with previous leverage stampedes, causing the market to plummet. 2. Why is it rebounding now? Three hard data points support this: 1. Severe overselling, temporarily clearing selling pressure. It fell from $3.9 to 0.1110, a drop of nearly 97%. Most of the floating shares that could be sold were cut, and selling continued downwardThe reported end of Advent and Stripe's PayPal talks matters less as a failed transaction than as a valuation signal. A rumored price above $50B could not bridge the gap, while PayPal's roughly 17% premarket drop shows how much takeover optionality had entered the market's framing. The strategic logic was credible: consumer reach, merchant scale and developer infrastructure. But if funding, regulation and price cannot align, payments consolidation may remain more compelling on paper than executable in practice. None of the parties has confirmed the details. Not advice, just analysis. #StripeExitsPayPalBid🇯🇵 YEN CARRY TRADE COULD RETURN TO CRYPTO HAUNTING – BTC IS STILL STANDING, BUT COULD MEMES 🐸 BE THE FIRST TO BE DISCHARGED? There's a risk I think crypto traders shouldn't just look at the Fed: YEN CARRY TRADE. It used to be one of the biggest sources of cheap liquidity in global markets. The mechanism is simple: Borrow JPY at low costs. Exchange it for USD or other currencies. Then buy: Stocks. Bonds. Tech. Crypto. High-beta assets. As long as: Weak yen + BOJ keeps rates low + low volatility, trade this Recently, OKX's market fluctuations have been quite "generous" 😂 I haven't started my BTC dollar-cost averaging plan this week yet. The market sentiment is noticeably more cautious than a few days ago. After BTC surged to around $81,455, it quickly pulled back and is now hovering around $77,500, down about 3% in the last 24 hours. An important factor behind this correction is the latest hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Expectations for further tightening in September have increased, strengthening the dollar and pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, which has put pressure on risk assets. Interestingly, BTC had previously strengthened alongside gold, with the market viewing them as assets to hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation risks; however, with renewed rate hike expectations, short-term volatility has clearly increased. Recently, inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs have also noticeably warmed up, totaling about $2.5 billion over the past seven trading days. So, rather than rushing to judge whether the next move will be up or down, it's better to continue observing price performance around $77,000, the dollar's trend, and Federal Reserve policy expectations. #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCryptoHonestly, a week ago I still thought it was just an oversold rebound, a short squeeze. But watching the market evolve these past few days, I've completely overturned my previous judgment—the bottom structure of a major bull market has already formed. What confirms the trend even more is the unusual activity on the ETF side. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with over $3 billion inflow in August, making it the strongest month since 2026. BlackRock's IBIT attracted $277 million in a single day, ranking first, and the total assets of Bitcoin spot ETFs have surpassed $100 billion. These institutions are not here to "speculate," they are here to "allocate"—buying with real capital. Objectively speaking, this round is different from previous years; there is no broad frenzy bull market. It's more a resonance of macro liquidity expectations, regulatory framework progress, ETF funds, and short covering. It's only a matter of time before Bitcoin hits new highs, and ETH's catch-up potential is equally worth looking forward to. Of course, the higher it goes, the more you need to stay clear-headed. The core focus ahead is on the final Senate vote on the CLARITY Act in September and whether ETF inflows can maintain their pace. As long as these two main lines hold, the trend won't end easily. To my short-selling brothers, be careful. This wave is really serious this time.Something interesting is happening across markets. Bitcoin and gold are starting to move together again — not because traders suddenly became bullish on risk, but because the dollar/liquidity narrative is changing. Treasury buybacks, weaker USD expectations and rising concerns around long-term U.S. debt are pushing capital toward assets with limited supply. That explains why BTC pushed above $80K while gold moved toward $4,700. The key signal isn’t the price move itself. It’s the capital rotatioONDO's proposal to burn 100 million tokens and the $4 billion TVL form a deflationary game, with the core conflict lying in the timing of position battles before the positive news is realized and the transmission of macro hedging pressure. The protocol holds over 70% market share in tokenized stocks, with TVL surpassing $4 billion, placing its fundamental capital absorption strength at the forefront of the sector. The latest governance proposal plans to permanently burn 100 million tokens, aiming to tighten inflation expectations by locking up part of the supply. The current market drivers, in order of influence, are: deflationary pricing based on the progress of the burn proposal, the efficiency of macro risk appetite transmission to on-chain RWA, and the stability of the $4 billion liquidity pool's flow. The bullish scenario triggers if the 100 million token burn proposal passes seamlessly and execution begins. Deflation expectations will prompt the secondary market to preemptively price in supply contraction. Coupled with the 70% market share in tokenized stocks, capital will shift from wait-and-see to net inflow, and $ONDO will naturally start valuation repair. The bearish scenario triggers if governance processes are delayed or execution details fall short of expectations. Event-driven capital will then directly turn into distribution pressure suppressing positive news realization; if the US stock market simultaneously experiences a macro pullback, risk-off sentiment transmission will suppress RWA sector flow, inducing long position liquidations. A signal that the above scenarios fail is when market risk-off sentiment dominates comprehensively. Once traditional market liquidity tightens causing on-chain US stock funds to withdraw, the deflation expectation of 100 million tokens will not fully offset the selling pressure from position liquidations. The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the governance voting progress of the 100 million token burn proposal and the net increase or decrease of the $4 billion TVL. #BTC高位多空拉锯,黄金联动增强 #伊朗开放临时航道,美拒恢复旧协议 #沃什强调通胀风险,9月加息预期升温📰 【Avici Responds to Theft: 1,685 Users Affected, Full Refunds to Be Issued】 BlockBeats reports that on August 29, Avici announced that its card issuing partner Rain discovered a vulnerability today in an old version of the Solana card contract used by Avici and a few other projects. The relevant contracts have now been upgraded across all projects, and no further unauthorized activity has been detected. Avici stated that this incident only affected the independent Solana contract used to store the card balance after recharge. Users' Avici wallets and card balances are isolated from each other, and funds in Solana and EVM self-custody wallets remain safe and unaffected. Current checks show that a total of 1,685 users were affected, involving a total card balance of approximately 5... The most noteworthy aspect of this Avici incident is not the vulnerability itself, but the risk design of the "contract-custodied balance" model. While isolating wallet and card balances is indeed a good practice, having the card balance in an independent contract essentially means entrusting the funds to the project party for custody. If the partner has a vulnerability, users are still passively affected. The attitude of full refunds is acceptable, but it would be more interesting to see whether the team is covering this amount or if it comes from an insurance fund, as this will determine whether the project will face liquidity issues later. Do you think the project team should also publish the open-source audit results of the card contract? 👇👇👇 $BTC $ETH $XRP The current BTC situation is very clear: the direction is the repair wave since 62,000 not broken, with the densest "unblocking wall" of chips piled between 80,000-82,000 across the entire market (ETF costs are also here). If the main force directly pulls hard, it’s just carrying others. So the play rhythm chosen is the "most human" one—after rushing to 81,000 without sideways movement, leveraging the hawkish Jackson Hole signal + quarterly settlement, smashing through 77,000 with a 24-hour wick, short-term longs explode and then close. The more the news diverges (rate cut expectations repriced to "higher for longer"), the more urgent and ugly the move, the weaker the paper hands hold. This is exactly like the false break below 62,000: history repeats not the price, but the rhythm of "fall first 📉 then pull". $BTC $ETH $SOL Anthropic's reported IPO timetable matters less than the structure investors may be asked to absorb. A late-September to early-October listing, with some holders selling while others face lockups beyond 180 days, could make the primary-secondary share mix an early signal of conviction. Valuation talk of $1T-$2T will attract attention, but the filing should shift focus to revenue quality, compute costs and customer concentration. My read: the $30T TAM claim may frame the ambition, yet operating evidence will set the public-market appetite. Not advice, just analysis. #AnthropicIPOUpdateWall Street is widely betting on a rate hike, with the probability of a 25 basis point increase in September rising sharply to over 50%. Warsch reiterated his commitment to ultimately controlling inflation, after inflation has exceeded the central bank's target for five consecutive years. After Warsch's speech, the two-year US Treasury yield immediately surged 12 basis points to 4.35%. Now, US inflation data has reached 3.7%. Warsch wants to control inflation, and a single rate hike is unlikely to achieve this; it depends on whether there will be a second rate hike in November. However, many investors are reluctant to raise rates, believing that the US annual deficit of over $2 trillion is unsustainable. At the same time, with Company A and Company O preparing for IPOs, if rates rise, AI company financing will be severely hit. It should be noted that the current massive AI investments heavily rely on the bond market! Therefore, it is very likely that the talk about controlling inflation is just rhetoric, and the September FOMC meeting may reverse course and decide not to raise rates. After all, rate hikes have a huge impact on the bond market and mortgage loans. Former President Trump also wants to protect employment and cannot allow the economy to fall into stagflation. So, I believe the possibility of a rate hike in September is increasing, but from the broader perspective of protecting employment, maintaining debt, and supporting AI development, it is more likely to remain stable! Below is a summary of Warsch's speech: $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险,9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯,黄金联动增强 #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens During this period, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between 78,000 and 81,000, and recently its interaction with gold has been quite strong. For example, last night when Walsh spoke, everyone expected a dovish statement about rate cuts, at worst a dovish tone, but unexpectedly there was a chance of a rate hike, causing Bitcoin and gold to plunge together. But on the other hand, don’t blindly shout “digital gold is back” just because the linkage is strong. Essentially, they are not the same thing. When gold rises, it’s driven by central banks continuously buying gold and safe-haven funds entering the market—solid defensive capital support; when BTC rises, it relies on increased risk appetite and speculative capital adding positions, still a high-beta risk asset. If a black swan event really happens, gold is the safe-haven asset, BTC is the risk asset being sold off—this has never changed. Now it’s just that macro drivers temporarily coincide, not that the asset attributes have changed. It’s the weekend now, time to slowly recover. You can wait until Monday to open positions; just have a good rest over the weekend Serenity questioned whether the current valuation of AI frontier labs is already "absurd": If Anthropic goes public at a $2 trillion valuation in the future, 10% of its market value would be equivalent to $200 billion, which could theoretically be enough to buy a large number of well-known consumer brands. Serenity cites that this amount of funding is enough to cover a large number of mature consumer brands such as Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, KFC, GAP, American Eagle, Levi's, Victoria's Secret, Cheesecake Factory, Krispy Kreme, Calvin Klein, Kohl's, AMC, Nike, Under Armour, Canada Goose, and more, with about $51.6 billion theoretically remaining after these acquisitions. Currently, some investors expect Anthropic's potential IPO valuation to reach or exceed $2 trillion, and some have even given higher valuations based on its rapid growth expectations. Serenity's core view is that AI frontier labs are priced at valuations far exceeding those of traditional consumer and brick-and-mortar enterprises, and this huge valuation gap itself has become a direct indicator of the current level of AI capital frenzy🚨 What if the biggest crypto crashes give us a hidden signal BEFORE they happen? Guys, am I the only one noticing this? 👀 After looking at 7 years of data, I found something really interesting: when the crypto market starts crashing hard, altcoins tend to move much more closely with $BTC. In extreme sell-offs, their average correlation can get close to 0.9. That got me thinking… What if we use this as a simple market-warning tool? #DailyOrbit Is Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme? Swan asked a question in return. The CEO of Swan Bitcoin recently addressed this long-standing question in the crypto world. His rebuttal was very direct: a real Ponzi scheme requires someone to collect money, promise returns, and then use the money from newcomers to pay those in front. Bitcoin does not have such a central operator. Cory even directly asked, "Every Ponzi scheme needs a Bernie Madoff, so who is the Madoff of Bitcoin?" 1. The core of Cory's grasp is "who is running this scam." Why is a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme called a scam? It's not because the money from later players makes those in front profit, but because someone behind the scenes deliberately conceals the flow of funds, falsifies returns, and decides who gets the money. Bitcoin is indeed different in this regard. It has no CEO promising fixed returns, and no company is responsible for using new investors' money to distribute "returns" to existing ones. Issuance rules, ledgers, and code are all public. So strictly following the traditional definition of financial fraud and calling Bitcoin a "Ponzi scheme," it really raises a difficult question: who is running this Ponzi scheme? 2. The real controversy is not about "whether there is a Madoff" What opponents of $BTC really want to express is often another meaning: Bitcoin itself does not generate corporate profits, interest, or cash flow; many people buy it believing it will exist in the futureFrom the night of August 28 to 29, the largest long trader on Hyperliquid opened long positions of 1000 $BTC and 38,000 $ETH through multiple addresses. The total value was $170 million, with an average BTC price of $78,758 and an average ETH price of $2,478.6. Currently, there is an unrealized loss of $2.39 million. This giant whale is not doing this for the first time. Three days ago, it just closed long positions of 2000 BTC and 120,000 ETH, earning $61.72 million. After making money, it transferred $26.83 million USDC into three new wallets to continue going long. Having earned over $60 million, the current unrealized loss of $2.39 million might just be a sneeze to him. But what's interesting is the timing of opening the positions—right during Wash's speech, when BTC was dropping from above $80,000. He was adding positions throughout the decline, not going all in at once. What does this indicate? Either he really is optimistic about the market and sees this pullback as a buying opportunity, or he is building his position in batches, preparing to hold at a higher level. Either way, with a $170 million position on the table, the direction is quite clear. BTC is now hovering around 77K, still about $1,000 away from his cost price. Whether this giant whale can hold on can be watched over the next few days.The most glaring issue with Moonwell this time is not "the protocol has another problem" but that collateral prices can be manipulated, allowing truly liquid assets to be borrowed from the other side. Simply put, the weakest link in the system is not a code vulnerability, but a small token being treated as overly serious collateral. Many risk parameters in DeFi seem reasonable during a bull market. Prices rise, liquidity is hot, borrowing demand is strong, and everyone thinks the model is fine. But when attackers actually strike, it turns out that part of the so-called collateral value is just numbers on a screen—unsellable, unsustainable, and unliquidatable. I increasingly believe that the future competition among lending protocols won't be about who supports the most assets, but who dares to support fewer assets. Restraint itself is risk control. #Moonwell遭价格操纵,抵押风险暴露 A skyscraper claiming to sell for two trillion, but the construction drawings won't be submitted for review until after Labor Day—this is not a design miracle, it's a structural risk. Having worked on construction sites for thirty years, I've seen too many projects with renderings shinier than the Burj Khalifa. Anthropic's project states on the drawings "300 trillion square meters of saleable area," which sounds like it could house the entire Earth's population. But architects all know anyone can make that kind of model in a showroom; the real challenge lies in the basement piles. The IPO roadshow day in September is the day to inspect those piles. Where are the load-bearing walls? The first wall is revenue quality. You need to tell me how much rent this building generates annually, and the length of tenant leases, rather than boasting about floor area ratio based on presale intentions. The second wall is cost calculation—that's the building's entire energy consumption system. Even if the exterior walls are all photovoltaic glass, the machine rooms still burn through the electricity equivalent of a whole street every day. The third wall is customer concentration; when I draw plans, I avoid clustering all elevator shafts in one corner. If the main tenant there collapses, the building's vertical transportation will be paralyzed. As for existing shareholders wanting to cash out early and new shareholders locked in for 180 days, that's about the proportions of subleasing and underwriting—you can't have two groups squeezing into the same stairwell; this building will crack before topping out. $xNVDA is the rebar and concrete market next to the site. Without computing power as a "building material," no matter how grand your plan, you can't pour a real structure. Building material prices have doubled and more in the past two years; now the market is asking: does the steel content in this building justify a two trillion floor price? I pay special attention to news about "allowing some holders to sell old shares, others locked for 180 days"—this is like the developer saying, "I can hand over some floors first, and the rest after landscaping is done." But construction rules require the main structure to pass inspection as a whole. If you first give the easily sold units to insiders and leave the most capital-intensive top floors for the public to take on, this is not design, it's offloading the load onto the next party. Also, the "investor open day in late September" is called a "site open day" in construction. Experts visiting a site don't look at showroom soft furnishings; they check rebar spacing, concrete curing conditions, and whether pipelines clash. Similarly, the financial appendices in the prospectus are like the load factor coefficients in structural calculations—if the coefficients are fake, no matter how tall the building is, it's just performance for the earthquake bureau. The early September timing is also telling. Filing after Labor Day gives the review agency a one-month window—but real structural review is counted by months, not days. Design institutes require triple reviews and checks; if you're rushing to release facade drawings, is it to grab work before the rainy season, or afraid a typhoon will expose flaws? The drawings say "expandable in the long term." I've seen too many projects fill pages with "reserved elevator shafts," but in the end can't even build the second floor. TAM is a promotional brochure for the developer, not a structural calculation book. Once wind tunnel tests are done, half the facade should be torn down. Right now, I only care about one thing: when that prospectus is laid out like a construction blueprint, are the concrete grades, rebar diameters, and foundation bearing capacity really enough to support this two trillion rooftop? Don't let the ribbon-cutting ceremony be the most lively event, only for the structural engineer to see that all the load-bearing walls are made of foam bricks. #anthropicipoupdate