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📌This Week's Crypto Market Recap｜Short Squeeze Surge Followed by High-Level Tug of War
BTC surged 26% from 62,400 on a short squeeze, reaching a 5-month high of 81,200.
ETH rose 31% in a week, holding steady above 2,500; XRP nearly 50%, ZEC soared 70% hitting an 8-year high; total market cap increased by 474 billion in a week, with the greed index peaking at 81, indicating extreme greed.
Bears suffered heavy losses, BTC broke through 80,000 triggering 1.06 billion in liquidations; bears lost 3 billion USD over the week, with multiple instances of both longs and shorts being wiped out.
Underlying market logic: ETF net inflow of 2.6 billion in a week, with BlackRock accounting for 80%; US crypto regulatory policy shift; US Treasury repo + weak dollar supporting risk assets.
From Wednesday, whales started reducing positions at highs, causing a market pullback. Now 80,000 is the critical line: continued ETF inflows could push towards 85,000-90,000; if funds retreat, a retest of 73,000 is possible.
It's options expiry week, volatility will continue to intensify, so manage position risk accordingly.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
$ETH $SNDK $BTC Assassin Wu Liuqi
【Assassin Market Watch】
ETH current price $2519.6, Aqi's short assassination plan is as follows:
🎯 Short entry range: 2545～2555
(The short pain point wall above is near 2549, a squeeze-out level; strike as soon as it touches the wall)
🔴 Stop loss: above 2582
(Breaking the wall with a gap buffer; if it passes this line, Aqi admits defeat and won't stubbornly hold)
🎯 Target 1: 2489 (bullish pain point, take profit at the wall, first cut in the bag)
🎯 Target 2: 2450 (breakdown to watch for a deep pullback, second cut depends on fate)
⚖️ 50x light position 3% (=1.5x leverage), risk-reward ratio about 1:2, worthwhile.
---
Why does Aqi dare to strike at this position?
· Funding rate +0.235% turned positive and relatively high, bulls start squeezing to pay rent, crowded.
· LSR Trader 4.31 / Whale 4.19, both extremes biased bullish, retail investors unanimously bullish—Aqi's favorite reverse harvesting signal.
· 15m/1h spike just hits the short liquidation wall near $2549, high probability of squeeze-out realization, Aqi is just waiting for this.
⚠️ Note!
1h/4h/1d all timeframes show strong uptrend; this is a counter-trend short at the wall, only aiming to catch the spike pullback. Must exit at 2489, strike and run, never hold or fight.
Don't chase if it doesn't reach 2545, no naked shorts without touching the wall; Aqi doesn't do uncertain trades. On the morning of August 28, $BTC repeatedly spiked above 80,000, reaching a high of about 80,800-80,850; 81,500 was not a valid breakout but rather a wick sweep in the 81K-81.2K resistance zone.
Causes of the spike:
① On 8/26, about 270 million long positions were liquidated, leverage clearing was not complete;
② On 8/28, about $6.4 billion BTC options expired, with major players using the expiry date to create volatility and clear chasing longs;
③ NVDA's earnings exceeded expectations, boosting risk appetite, but after nine days of ETF net inflows, the initial value on 8/27 dropped to 42.6 million, and spot buying slowed marginally.
Technical positioning: 81.2K-81.3K is this week's dense high zone plus the 30-day high; only a breakout here opens the way to 83K-85K; below, 79.6K-80K is the first support, and losing 78.5K targets 76.5K-77K.
Intraday judgment: 80,000 was regained but not broken through, indicating healthy high-level rotation rather than a trend reversal. Holding above 81.2K → follow longs targeting 83K; breaking below 78.5K → deep correction begins. Tonight at 22:00, Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is the macro trigger for directional choice.
⚠️ Options expiry + macro events overlap, volatility expands; avoid heavy chasing orders, wait for a breakout above 81.2K or a breakdown below 78.5K to follow on the right side.
$ETH $SOL
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Core PCE didn't drop; will Warsh suddenly turn hawkish tonight?
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
July core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, exactly the same as last month; month-over-month it actually rose from 0.1% to 0.2%.
This data set is quite awkward: it's not like inflation is out of control; but saying it's already contained is clearly too early.
So the most important thing about Warsh's speech at 10 PM tonight isn't whether he says "hawkish" or "dovish," but whether he draws a clear line on a rate hike in September.
My personal feeling is that he probably won't close the door on it and will continue to leave a "wait for further data" stance.
For BTC, this kind of ambiguous attitude is actually the most torturous, likely causing wild swings and shaking out leverage on both sides.
$BTC 🚨 POLYMARKET’S LATEST MOVE COULD BE BIGGER THAN IT LOOKS
Polymarket’s U.S. platform withdrew its NFL player participation contracts on August 26 just one day after they had been certified.
On that same day, something else happened:
The platform certified new Bitcoin, Ether and Solana price contracts with the CFTC.
The CFTC’s own registry shows the BTC, ETH and SOL products as certified binary-option swaps, while the NFL participation contracts were marked withdrawn.
That contrast is what caught my attention.
It suggests the platform is becoming increasingly selective about which event-contract products it wants to take forward within the U.S. regulatory framework.
And crypto appears to be one of the areas moving forward.
🟠 WHY THIS MATTERS FOR $BTC
Bitcoin price exposure is increasingly being integrated into regulated financial infrastructure.
This doesn't mean more people buying spot BTC tomorrow.
But it does create another regulated avenue for market participants to express views around Bitcoin prices.
That matters as crypto continues moving deeper into traditional financial markets.
🔵 ETH & SOL ARE PART OF THE STORY TOO
What's even more interesting is that this isn't Bitcoin alone.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
All three received certified price contract products on the same day.
That potentially signals a broader shift from treating crypto as a niche market toward building regulated financial products around multiple major digital assets.
Ethereum and Solana being included alongside Bitcoin is especially worth watching if this category continues expanding.
⚖️ BUT DON'T OVERHYPE IT
The important distinction is that CFTC certification of contracts doesn't mean the agency is endorsing the assets or predicting their prices.
It's a regulatory/product-development milestone, not a guaranteed bullish catalyst.
And Polymarket's withdrawal of the NFL contracts also shows that regulatory boundaries around prediction-market products remain complicated. Jackson Hole Speech: The Crossroads of BTC
Key Points: PCE is just the appetizer; Wash's speech is the main course. Uncertainty is the biggest risk, don't bet on direction before it emerges.
---
1. PCE: Neutral to Hawkish, No Clear Direction
July core PCE year-over-year at 3.3%, stuck just above the target and not coming down. The data itself hasn't changed much—September rate hike probability still hovers around 40%. The market isn't waiting for this data, but for Wash's interpretation of it.
2. Wash: The Biggest Unknown
Wash doesn't play by the rules—scrapped the dot plot, no forward guidance, holds 192 million in crypto assets. Will he treat Bitcoin as a risk or part of the system? No one knows. This is the biggest uncertainty.
3. Three Possible Paths
Hawkish (40%) → Emphasize inflation risk, keep rate hike option → BTC may drop below 77,000
Tai Chi (40%) → Say a lot of "watch the data" nonsense → Continue oscillating around 80,000
Dovish (20%) → Downplay rate hikes, friendly to innovation → BTC may break above 83,000
4. Conclusion
The "hawkish" nature of the data is certain, but Wash's "words" are uncertain.
Don't bet on direction before it emerges. Reduce positions, wait and see, wait for clarity—staying alive is more important than getting rich quick.
$BTC
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Today's session is a bit strong, with a clear conclusion first. At this moment. BTC has reached around $81,000, ETH is about $2,529. The real spotlight is SOL, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 12%, surging straight to $109. XRP rose to $1.46, HYPE reached around $84, and OKB also climbed above $114. Even DOGE and TRUMP have started to accelerate, and market sentiment is clearly more excited than in previous days. This wave of rally didn't just happen suddenly. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, with cumulative purchases of about $2.8 billion during that period. When BTC failed to break through to 80,000 a few days ago, off-exchange funds did not retreat. Selling pressure kept pushing down, ETF funds kept taking in the funds, and only then did the price slowly recover. But today was a bit special. Around 16:00 Beijing time, about $6.3 billion in BTC options were expiring in concentration. There are many positions piled up around $80,000, and before settlement, prices are easily pulled back and forth by hedged trading. The so-called $69,000 "biggest pain point" doesn't need to be taken too seriously; it's just a figure calculated by the position structure and doesn't mean BTC must fall back today. What really matters in the market is after settlement. If BTC can hold above $80,000, it means this breakout is not just a simple options rally. Looking up to $81,300 first, with volume surging, $82,500–$83,000 will be the next target. If it falls back below $80,000, the $79,300–$78,800 area is very likely to be tested again. ETH still has its old problem$BTC & $ETH :HISTORY IS ECHOING, BUT THIS CYCLE IS DIFFERENT
In 2022, $BTC rallied after the June selloff, only to revisit nearly $16K before confirming the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path.
Now, $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after briefly reaching above $81K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $2B in weekly inflows, supporting the recovery
Is this healthy consolidation—or another warning before volatility returns?Fundamental + breakout resonance trend market, $HYPE surges to new highs again
Current price is about $84.3, up 3.38% in 24H, previously broke through the $83 high and created a new high of $86.77; currently up about 14% in 7 days, the price has entered the historical price discovery zone. More importantly, 24H contract trading volume is about $5.1 billion, OI about $3.73 billion, leverage funds are very active, but 24H liquidation is only about $6.12 million, no uncontrolled forced liquidations occurred, indicating the rise has not been completely over-leveraged for now.
Fundamentals are also fueling the fire: AQAv2 officially launched on August 26, about 90% of USDC reserve yields will be used to buy back and burn HYPE; meanwhile, on August 27, a fee discount market went live, HyperEVM ecosystem continues to expand.
My strategy: wait for a pullback, do not chase $86. $82–83 is the first support, hold to target $90–92; a volume breakout above $92 targets $100. Reduce positions if it falls below $80, and if it breaks below $76, the trend is judged to weaken. TGA buybacks are just robbing Peter to pay Paul; fiscal concerns are the long-term shackles.
The U.S. Treasury is using TGA account funds to conduct Treasury buybacks. Many in the market interpret this directly as monetary easing and a positive signal, but essentially this is just a debt maturity structure adjustment, a temporary fix that does not solve the root problem. The deep fiscal pressure in the U.S. has not been alleviated.
From the perspective of the crypto market, this can be viewed in two layers of logic:
First layer: Only a short-term liquidity breather, not money printing or easing.
The nearly 935 billion TGA fund size looks huge, but the Treasury's use of cash to buy back Treasuries is a debt swap operation, not equivalent to the Fed's QE money printing. The total money supply in the financial system has not increased.
It merely temporarily releases the stock of funds locked in the Treasury account, optimizing the maturity structure of U.S. debt and briefly improving bond market liquidity. The risk appetite boost from this positive signal is just a pulse of short-term sentiment and cannot directly support BTC and other crypto assets to start a new round of trend-driven rallies. Blindly chasing highs based on this is unwise.
Second layer: The U.S. debt problem is a long-term constraint; the interest rate ceiling is hard to break.
U.S. federal debt has surpassed 40 trillion, with the debt scale continuously expanding. The IMF has clearly issued fiscal risk warnings, and global authoritative institutions have publicly highlighted the risks, indicating that the drawbacks of a debt-driven growth model have become apparent.
High interest expenses force ongoing fiscal pressure, and inflation stickiness combined with debt pressure will significantly limit the Fed's room to cut rates. The pace of interest rate declines is constrained, so risk asset valuations naturally have a ceiling. High Beta crypto assets will find it difficult to enter an independent bull market detached from liquidity fundamentals.RFI and Safeheron launched a post-quantum digital asset pilot this week. Participating institutions will test wallet generation and on-chain transfers on the NEAR testnet. Its signature layer uses ML-DSA-65 from the NIST FIPS 204 standard and integrates with multiparty computation (MPC) processes.
The technical focus of this test is not to prove that quantum computing can already break existing wallets, but to verify whether wallets can switch cryptographic algorithms without rebuilding the entire custody system.
Traditional wallets usually bind address, private key format, transaction encoding, and signature verification rules to the same elliptic curve system. After migrating to ML-DSA, the public key and signature sizes increase significantly, requiring hardware security modules, MPC nodes, transaction parsers, and on-chain verification logic to adapt synchronously. Simply replacing the signature function in the client does not complete the migration.
MPC does not automatically provide quantum security. It addresses the issue that private keys do not appear fully at a single point; if the parties jointly execute a traditional signature algorithm, the underlying mathematical assumptions remain unchanged.
This pilot directly incorporates post-quantum signatures into the distributed generation and signing process, testing the complete key lifecycle, including key generation, shard custody, joint signing, and on-chain verification.
Post-quantum wallets need to have "cryptographic agility": accounts can upgrade signature schemes, migrate old assets, allow coexistence of old and new algorithms during the transition period, while maintaining effective recovery and audit processes. NVIDIA #美国核心PCE持平上月, How will the Jackson Hole speech set the tone? Optical modules & high-speed interconnects (indirect conduction)
AI server internal bandwidth expansion and cluster interconnection demand are rising simultaneously. Large-scale HBM expansion corresponds to increased computing power density per server, with synchronized growth in the usage of high-speed optical interconnects and high-speed interfaces. The expansion of computing clusters will continuously drive demand for 800G/1.6T optical modules, which is a supporting benefit of computing power expansion.
💡 Market Thoughts
The main theme of the past AI market was NVIDIA GPUs; now the logic is shifting upstream: HBM storage has officially become the new bottleneck for AI computing power.
NVIDIA sacrifices short-term gross margin to lock in upstream capacity, essentially buying certainty for computing power expansion over the next 1-2 years.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Locking in a prosperous long-term contract does not mean the stock price will immediately rise unilaterally. The valuation of upstream targets, inventory cycles, and Federal Reserve interest rate fluctuations will still cause disturbances; tonight's liquidity statement at the Jackson Hole annual meeting will determine the sustainability of the semiconductor sector's rebound.Right now, in the BTC market, two groups are battling. One group is Wall Street ETF players, who spent $4.06 billion in June and fled, setting the worst record since the ETF went public. The other group is the old whales on the chain, who bought $16.7 billion and 270,000 BTC during the same period. Both sides are watching the same BTC, but making completely opposite decisions. Tell me, who's wrong? I laid out the core logic for both bulls and bears, so you can judge for yourself: 🐻 Core evidence for bears: The Fed remains hawkish and may raise rates this year. ETFs have seen net outflows for five consecutive days, totaling $1.8 billion. Over 95% of short-term holders are at a loss. The US dollar index DXY rose 2.1% in 30 days, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.5%. Strategy may sell $1.25 billion to raise funds 🐂. Core evidence for bulls: Whales bought up 270,000 BTC in two weeks, exceeding the total monthly ETF sell-off volume Long-term holders began net increasing holdings in July. On July 3, ETFs saw a renewed net inflow of $221 million, selling pressure subsided. EMC Labs judged the market to enter the "late phase of a cyclical bear market." Historical pattern: After ETF-whale divergence appears, the average rebound within 60 days is 20-30%. My judgment (human commentary): This is not a "bull-bear battle," but a "final wash." $60,000 has shifted from support to psychological resistance, and BTC will repeatedly grind between $58,000 and $63,000 in the short term. There is only one real trend reversal signal—continuous net inflows from ETFs + stablecoins starting to buy in and buy. ThereWhile Nvidia itself is strengthening, upstream sectors such as memory and optical modules are collectively rising, which is not a coincidental emotional follow-up but supported by solid order logic behind the scenes.
The earnings call revealed core hub data: Nvidia's multi-year supply commitments surged from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion, a single-quarter increase of 134%, with the vast majority of the new increment used to lock in long-term memory (HBM) capacity agreements.
CEO Huang is not merely forecasting downstream demand but is directly stepping in, using massive long-term contracts to pre-purchase and lock in upstream core capacity. The bottleneck for AI computing power expansion has shifted from GPUs to HBM high-bandwidth memory.
📌 Industry chain transmission breakdown, two main logical lines diverge:
✅ Memory (the most direct beneficiary)
Nvidia's CFO clearly stated: memory has entered an extreme price increase cycle, and prices will continue to rise next year.
Nvidia is willing to sacrifice profitability and actively accept cost increases, guiding Q4 gross margin down to 71-72%, effectively using its own gross margin as official endorsement for memory price hikes.
Large long-term contracts locking capacity + tight supply and demand price hike expectations, shortages bring pricing power; Micron MU, SK Hynix SKHY, SanDisk $SNDK all strengthened simultaneously after hours, significantly enhancing the certainty of the memory cycle uptrend. To be honest, on June 30, when BTC fell below 60,000 and hit a 21-month low of $58,075, I panicked. Fear and greed index 15—extreme fear. My social media posts were full of "bull market is over" and "zero warning." But after staying up late and checking on-chain data, I actually calmed down. Because the data shows: real whales didn't sell a single drop, but bought wildly. Let me share a few counterintuitive facts: Fact 1: US Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.06 billion in June, the worst in history. Sounds scary? But the day after June 30 (July 3), ETFs saw $221 million inflow again—selling pressure instantly stalled. Fact 2: In the past two weeks, whale wallets bought up 270,000 BTC, worth $16.7 billion. These wallets hold 1,000+ BTC and are among the most informationally advantaged in the market. Fact 3: Glassnode's definition of "long-term holders" (wallets that haven't touched coins for over 155 days) turned net increasing holdings starting in July, with a scale of 50,000 to 100,000 BTC. In plain terms: retail investors cut losses at 59,000, whales build positions at 59,000. Chips shift from weak hands to strong ones—this is the most typical scenario at the bottom of the cycle. EMC Labs' cycle model gives the same judgment: after the sharp drop in June, BTC officially enters the "late phase of the cyclical bear market." What does "late stage" mean? It means clearing is nearing its end, but the turning point has not yet been confirmed. If you didn't cut losses in June, just deduct 👍 it for me to see. If you were at 5.9Sun Yuchen is trending again, this time because of Jing Tian.
But more intriguing than the gossip is this: why is the first reaction of the crypto community whenever a big figure in the space gets into trouble always "Is my coin okay?"
This reflexive panic precisely reveals one thing—the crypto market still hasn't escaped the narrative trap of "personal worship." The success or failure of projects hinges on one person, and the industry's reputation is tied to KOLs.
Will Sun Yuchen's TRX, HT, USDD, and the entire Tron ecosystem be affected? Most likely not. But the very question of "will it be affected" is the biggest irony in a decentralized world.
True DeFi shouldn't ask "What if the boss gets into trouble?" but rather "Does it even matter if there's a boss or not?".$BTC being stuck at 80k for several days is expected.
After August 17, the US $BTC ETF saw very strong capital inflows consecutively, with daily inflows of approximately 298 million, 189 million, 517 million, 606 million, 308 million, 338 million, 314 million, and 232 million USD respectively, only noticeably cooling down on the 27th.
BTC adds 450 new miners daily, which at 80k USD amounts to only 36 million USD per day, but this is not the main pressure point.
Nearly 8% of BTC circulating supply has its last moved price concentrated between 80k–82k, with nearly 5% just around 80k, making this one of the largest single cost-intensive zones currently.
Even the average cost of historical ETF investors is concentrated between 80k–82k.
Many might think that with such large ETF inflows, BTC would easily break through 80k, but my judgment is completely the opposite. If over 2 billion USD in ETF buying continues, and BTC really surges to 90k, I would actually worry that the market has been prematurely overextended.
80k can be seen as the most critical turnover zone in this bull cycle’s correction; the moment macro sentiment warms up, BTC will quickly break through upwards.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
$HYPE $ENA $TAO ETH at $2540—do you want to chase it? Let's look at the surface: 34% rise in 30 days, retail investors shout "ETH rises" From mid-August around 1800-1900 to 2540, it rose 12% in 7 days and 34% in 30 days. Market value returned to the top two, with 24-hour trading volume surging. The time to tackle challenges has arrived: hold firm and take off, fail to pull back. First thing: ETF is buying like crazy, but you might have been fooled by a short squeeze Stock net inflow of 180 million on August 25, 192 million on the 26th, nearly 700 million USD for the entire week — the strongest inflow week since 2026. BlackRock ETHA was the main force. BitMine bought another 32,400 coins, pushing its holdings to 5.847 million, close to 4.8% of circulating supply. It jumped from 1900 to 2540, and a long squeeze has already wiped out a large amount of short positions. To go further up, it's not about explosive short selling, but about real cash buying. Institutions are buying, but the pace is slowing. Second: supply is tightening, which is the toughest bottom in the medium term. The staked amount is 42 million tokens, accounting for 33%-35% of circulating supply. Combined with ETF custody and corporate treasuries, the available spot on exchanges is shrinking. Staking ETFs have already been launched (BlackRock ETHB, Grayscale ETHE). Institutions buying ETH are no longer just betting on price swings—they can also enjoy net returns just above 2%. Circulating supply is shrinking, selling interest is drying up. Institutions buying ETH offers "rental income + price increases," making it more attractive. Q4 GlamsterdaTo be honest, I was stunned when I saw this set of data—BlackRock has been buying $BTC and $ETH for 8 consecutive days, pouring in a total of $3.16 billion,
27,700 BTC plus 385,600 ETH. This is not something retail investors can do; this is institutions "stockpiling."
What concerns me even more is that BlackRock's overall crypto holdings surged from $53.3 billion to $68.4 billion in August, a monthly increase of $15 billion, or 28%.
Last week, IBIT's trading volume hit the highest positive weekly record since its launch in January 2024, with gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracting a combined $7 billion last week, directly breaking the 5-day cycle historical record.
But I also remind myself not to get carried away. Researchers at HashKey said that using single-day ETF inflows to predict BTC price movements the next day has weak predictive power; continuous inflows are more of a "trend confirmation" rather than a "leading indicator."
So my view is: this looks more like institutions systematically building positions after "bottom confirmation" in the $60,000 to $70,000 pullback range, rather than short-term speculation.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Recently, on-chain whale order data has sparked much discussion, with four large orders on Bitcoin, Ethereum, HYPE, and ZEC totaling nearly $250 million, which at first glance suggests a storm is brewing. But rather than being shocked by the numbers, it's better to calmly analyze what these big funds are actually expressing. On the Bitcoin side, a whale opened 46.8 long positions near $77,833, with a 40x cross-position position, indicating considerable leverage. More notably, he placed 1,176 buy orders in the $72,222 to $77,522 range below, and 928 sell orders between $81,504 and $108,888 above. From the order structure, this player is actually betting on price swinging within a range of $77,500 to $81,500, without a strong one-sided bullish or bearish tendency. He leaves room at both ends, a typical range-bound trading approach. Ethereum shows a different stance. A whale shorted 3,000 ETH at 25x cross-position, averaging around $2,460. His buy orders were placed between $2,000 and $2,400, and sell orders were between $2,533 and $2,900. This data reveals his caution about short-term movements, even believing that the $2,400 level might not hold, and that he is willing to wait for lower prices to buy it back. Shorting while also having buy orders below shows he is not purely bearish, but rather intends to be thereGuys, watching the market today really made my heart race and a bit wistful. BTC finally broke above the $80,000 mark again, with US spot ETFs seeing net inflows for eight consecutive days. This money was definitely a big buy. ETH also followed suit, climbing back above $2,500. The worst off were the bears, who were liquidated nearly $370 million in the past 24 hours, nearly 70% of which were short positions. In this market, short selling is really licking blood on the edge of a knife. 📈 But excitement aside, as a seasoned veteran who has been navigating the market for years, I tend to watch the undercurrents during the celebration. There are a few news pieces today that I think are even more worth reflecting on than BTC breaking 80,000. You may not have noticed that global regulators have recently taken action on "stablecoins" and "RWAs." Domestically, seven major financial associations issued risk warnings, clearly defining stablecoins, mining, and RWA tokenization as illegal. This is the largest crypto crackdown since 2021. Even more interestingly, in judicial practice, courts have clearly defined the exchange of USDT for RMB and US dollars as "disguised foreign exchange trading," establishing a "four-layer blockade" that blocks mining, blocks payments, blocks RWA, and eliminates fraud. But the magic is that while mainland China has completely banned it, neighboring Hong Kong has introduced a stablecoin license system and allowed RWA tokenization pilots, reportedly with 80 institutions already applying. This bittersweet situation actually illustrates a core logic: regulation is not about completely eliminating the crypto industry, but about "incorporation" and "acceptance."#BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies key level battles 1. Upward driving force: largely short squeeze covering, not entirely new long entries; ETFs have continuous net inflow increments, but there is strong profit-taking pressure at high levels.
2. Short-term disturbance: $6.44 billion BTC options expire concentratedly, fierce long-short battles in the $75,000–$80,000 range, volatility will be amplified.
3. Macro variables: PCE inflation stickiness remains, Jackson Hole speech sets rate expectations, a hawkish tilt will directly suppress risk assets.
——Current period is an intense event window, avoid full positions, avoid all in, keep cash buffer to cope with options expiration + macro speech induced spikes.
✔ In the volatile market phase, prioritize allocating BTC, ETF funds mainly flow into BTC, liquidity is best; $BTC
✔ $ is currently in a rebound verification phase, not a blind bull market. Hold the base position, play event-driven positions lightly with position isolation, focus on whether ETF buying can absorb high-level selling pressure, and respect the macro risks from Jackson Hole. Almost became the one chasing the high price...
Last night Micron $xMU opened +3%, I admit, my hands itched at that moment. Nvidia's earnings were so explosive, HBM is Micron's home turf, the logic loop was textbook perfect—orders at $967 were all filled.
Before submitting the order, I did one thing: I looked at the gap-up opening position, then asked myself, "If this order fills, where do I set my stop loss?" The answer was below 940, while the current price was $967. The stop loss space was 2.7%, and the position chasing in couldn't even withstand a normal fluctuation. The order was canceled.
Then came the drama: the intraday low was 911.50, closing at 914.64, down 2.53%. The brothers who chased the high at open are now starting with a 5% floating loss, and this is on a "good news realization" day.
This trade that didn't happen is worth more than most trades that did. It reminded me of three things:
1. Event-driven gap-ups are the thinnest liquidity slaughterhouses;
2. Stocks up 213% this year, the day of good news realization is the day of concentrated selling pressure;
3. Positions without a settable stop loss are equivalent to having no stop loss.
$xMU is still on my watchlist, the HBM story isn't over. But when it comes to entry points, better to wait three days than to rush a second. Going to sleep now
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码 August 28 ENA Observation | Stablecoin mechanisms are hot, but that doesn't mean governance tokens are risk-free
ENA returns to a high-interest area today. Rather than just looking at price fluctuations, it's better to first clarify the relationship among the Ethena protocol, USDe, and ENA. The Ethena official documentation defines USDe as a crypto-native synthetic dollar: the protocol holds spot underlying assets while simultaneously establishing short derivative positions of equal nominal scale, attempting to hedge and reduce the price volatility of the underlying assets. The underlying assets are custodied through an over-the-counter settlement scheme and diversified among multiple service providers, but this does not eliminate risks such as negative funding rates, liquidity, custody operations, and counterparty risks. When funding rates remain deeply negative for a prolonged period, the protocol design requires the reserve fund to bear the related costs, which is a factor that cannot be ignored when assessing stress scenarios. ENA itself is primarily a governance token used to elect the risk committee and participate in protocol decisions; it is not USDe, nor does it automatically gain equivalent value backing just because the USDe scale expands. Going forward, more attention should be paid to how the hedge positions, reserve fund, governance execution, and token supply change synchronously. Popularity is a topic, not a proof of safety. $ENA #ENA
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.$BTC $DOGE
Who is Sun Ge? A big shot in the crypto circle, a gray-market tycoon under border control. In the past, this kind of matter could never have spread on mainstream domestic media platforms because the demographic of people who love gossip basically ranges from teenagers to those in their 40s. Most people's first reaction when seeing this content is "Who is Sun Yuchen?" and "What does he do to make tens of billions of dollars?" When this group learns that Sun Yuchen got rich quickly through the crypto circle, it will inevitably lead some of these gossip lovers to understand or even enter the crypto space. Obviously, this runs counter to the previous suppression policies. Don't just focus on how much BTC and ETH have risen; it's interesting to dig down along the on-chain positions—who's still holding long positions, secretly trying short at high levels? After Nvidia's earnings report, what expectations are xyz:NVDA trading on-chain. To get straight to the point: looking at prices and high-performing address samples over the past 30 days, the dominant direction remains bullish, but the market is no longer in the stage of blindly buying everything to rise. The daily gains are large enough, and short-term indicators have entered a hot zone. The trend in the past few hours has already started to diverge. In the past two weeks, BTC has risen 23.66%, ETH 30.43%, and HYPE has surged even more sharply, reaching 49.21%. Just looking at these numbers, it's easy to conclude that "risk appetite has fully returned," which is what people commonly call a bull recovery. Has the bull really returned? The market has actually been uneven these days: in snapshots, BTC is at $78,826, down 0.13% intraday; ETH is at $2,491.9, up 1.33% intraday; HYPE is at $81.573, down 0.49% for the day. The strong trend remains, but the coins have already gone their separate ways. Smart money on the chain shows exactly the same divergence. We scanned 150 candidate accounts selected from the Hyperliquid leaderboard, then filtered out samples that were profitable over the past 30 days and still hold positions. In this sample, BTC and ETH are the most common#BTC surged then pulled back, options expiry amplifies the key level battle $BTC surged from around 62,000 to 81,000 in one go this week, reaching a high of 81,200 on August 25 before pulling back. Yesterday it surged again to around 80,800 but couldn't hold, then retracted to fluctuate between 80,200–80,500. This is not a crash, but a surge followed by a pullback.
Today the real volatility is in options. On Deribit, about 81,700 contracts with a notional value of $630–640 million expire at 4 PM. Calls outnumber puts, with a PCR around 0.83. Positions cluster at 75,000 and 80,000 strikes: calls at 75,000 have a notional of about $236 million, at 80,000 about $157 million, with over $500 million within 5% of the current price. The biggest pain point remains between 68,000 and 70,000, far from the current price, so don’t use that as a reason for a dump.
My view: 81,000 is the first solid resistance in this rebound. Bears are unloading here, while call options are stuck at 80,000. Market makers hedging will keep pressing the price repeatedly at this threshold. This is not evidence of a trend ending, but friction due to expiry. To be blunt: tonight is also the Jackson Hole symposium. Options expiry combined with macro speeches is likely to cause swings both ways. If 80,000 breaks, look to 78,500; only a real break above 81,200 confirms this rebound. Don’t max out leverage before expiry; the key level battle is about who cracks first, not who shouts louder.On August 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released July personal income and expenditure data: the overall PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year; Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Overall, year-on-year was higher than the market general expectation of 3.6%, while the core data was roughly in line with expectations. Let's clarify the timing: the data corresponds to July, which was only released on August 26; Reuters and the Associated Press conducted independent verification based on BEA data that day. The key point of these figures is not just "0.1 percentage points higher." BEA also shows that real consumer spending in July showed almost no month-on-month increase, and the personal savings rate fell to 3.0%. In other words, inflation remains significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, but real consumer momentum is weak. Policy faces the dilemma of "price pressures remaining, demand is slowing," rather than a single direction of boom or recession. The next observation point is Jackson Hole. The Fed's official website schedule shows that Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver a keynote speech at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on August 28, which is 10 p.m. Beijing time tonight. At the time of this article's release, the speech had not yet taken place, and any specific judgments about rate hikes, cuts, or asset purchases are merely speculation and should not be considered confirmed policies. Why is the crypto market paying attention? First, if the speech emphasizes lowering inflation, the market may raise expectations for how long interest rates will remain high. U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar would increase the opportunity cost of holding interest-free risk assets. Second, if the speech is more concerning,6万美金，破了。 比特币跌到58995美元，比去年高点回撤约52%，市场情绪指数正式掉进"极度恐惧"区间。 但奇怪的是——鲸鱼不卖了。 CoinShares的数据显示，主导去年10月那轮砸盘的鲸鱼抛压，这次显著降温。 所以现在的问题不是"还会不会跌"，而是：这帮大户是不是知道了什么我们不知道的事？ 先说为什么跌这么惨。三个真凶： 🔪 真凶一：美联储不让降息 新主席Kevin Warsh上台后态度偏鹰，核心PCE虽然符合预期，但消费数据超预期，市场现在甚至在定价7月加息的可能性。美元走强，比特币这种"零息资产"自然被抛。 🔪 真凶二：ETF资金在逃跑 全资产数字资产ETP本周净流出14亿美元。IBIT期权交易量飙到过去30天平均的2倍，看跌期权几乎是看涨的2倍多，交易员押注比特币还要再跌4.5%-10%。 🔪 真凶三：Strategy可能要卖币 持有约84.7万枚BTC的Strategy（原MicroStrategy）放话：可能卖币筹最多12.5亿美元现金去付优先股股息和债务利息。Saylor一直喊的"永不卖出"叙事被动摇，市场心理冲击比实际卖币量更大。 但是！反转信号也出现了： BTC community heat update: 2.03 times is just attention, not buying pressure
OKX Onchain OS recorded 146 mentions of BTC in one hour at 06:00 on August 28, including 127 from X and 19 from news.
Compared to the 24-hour hourly average, this round's speed is 2.03 times, classified as "significantly accelerated"; the sentiment is 54% bullish and 7% bearish. There is no need to force these two lines into the same conclusion: heat reflects how many people are talking, sentiment reflects the text's bias, and neither can directly substitute for trading volume and capital flow.
If the next round continues with speed, news sources, and actual market transactions together, confidence in judgment will increase; if it quickly returns to the average, this change is more like short-term noise.The market remains patient with the long-term narrative of the two mainstream coins, but the real lessons are often hidden in the shadows of leverage. A trader who once made a name by heavily investing near a thousand yuan in Ethereum and lost $763 million in the February correction due to failure to anticipate risks recently reiterated the slogan "only go long, never short." His logic is not without support: the integration of AI and crypto is seen as the core theme running through 2028, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even Solana all positioned in the imaginative space where computing power and capital intersect. This narrative itself is valid, but history also reminds us that being right about the direction does not mean the process will be smooth. When market consensus is highly unified, the intensity of corrections often exceeds expectations, and overconfident position management is precisely the culprit that turns correct judgments into huge losses. For ordinary participants, rather than obsessing over whether to short, it is better to consider whether their holdings can withstand a round of irrational volatility. On the macro level, PCE data and monetary policy signals from Jackson Hole will continue to dominate short-term liquidity expectations, and whether the AI narrative can continue to deliver requires more practical implementation to verify. Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile, and leveraged operations may amplify losses; please rationally assess your own risk tolerance. #BTC surge and pullback, options expiry amplifies key level battles
BTC surged and then quickly pulled back. Combined with large options expiry, the battle at key levels is amplified. ETH will follow BTC, but its own options position structure will lead to differentiated performance.
Impact on $BTC:
1. Approaching expiry, the Gamma effect becomes prominent. After the initial surge, market makers maintain Delta neutrality, passively selling at high levels to suppress further advances, directly causing the surge and pullback. Key levels with concentrated strike prices become strong attractors, with prices repeatedly testing these positions, resulting in more fake breakouts and noticeable spikes.
2. The maximum pain point becomes the core of short-term battles. If the current price is far from the pain point, funds will pull the price toward it before and after settlement; if the price surges past dense call strike zones, sellers’ hedging pressure will emerge, suppressing the market; if it falls toward dense put strike zones, support buying will appear.
3. Contract linkage amplifies volatility. The surge and pullback combined with options rebalancing and rapid long-short turnover in perpetual contracts easily trigger phased liquidations, intensifying intraday fluctuations. After settlement, Gamma constraints are lifted, short-term suppression disappears, and the market can move in a clearer direction.
Impact on $ETH:
1. ETH is highly correlated with BTC. When BTC experiences intense volatility due to options expiry, ETH mostly follows the rises and falls synchronously. BTC’s surge and pullback will be mirrored by ETH, dominated by Beta characteristics.
2. ETH has independent options positions. If ETH’s call/put holdings are unbalanced, ETH may move independently while BTC remains stable. When BTC is pinned within a range by options, ETH may exhibit stronger or weaker divergence.
3. Volatility transmission: BTC options expiry raises overall market implied volatility, with ETHIV rising in tandem. Short-term volatility often expands more than usual. However, ETH’s options nominal size is generally smaller than BTC’s, so its driving force is secondary, mostly passive following. Only when ETH’s own large strike prices are touched will it show independent moves.
The above is only a market logic analysis and does not constitute investment advice.Friday morning 8.28
From midnight until now, BTC has steadily risen from around 79706 to 81121, up more than 1415 points, currently hovering near 80996; ETH has climbed from 2487 to 2528, now fluctuating around 2525. Both BTC and ETH are in an overall bullish pattern.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC has consecutively closed bullish candles, with price firmly above the moving average, confirming a clear uptrend. Any pullback is a consolidation.
On the 1-hour chart, after continuous bullish moves, BTC has reached the upper Bollinger Band. Short-term overbought conditions suggest a pullback is needed, but the main trend remains unchanged. Pullbacks are buying opportunities.
Friday morning Silk Road: Buy on pullbacks
$BTC: Buy around 80000-80500, target 81500-82000
$ETH: Buy around 2505-2515, target 2565-2585
$SOL $BTC Bitcoin Returns to 80,000, Hong Kong Conference as a “Catalyst” Rather Than an “Engine”
On August 28, Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000, reaching an intraday high of $80,799. Coinciding on the same day, Bitcoin Asia 2026 concluded at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, with the timing closely aligned, naturally drawing market attention to whether the conference “ignited” this rally.
The conference indeed released positive signals: Binance founder CZ’s “comeback” speech was seen as a regulatory indicator; Hong Kong legislators reaffirmed the Web3 hub positioning and introduced regulatory progress such as stablecoin regulations; the event also included closed-door institutional meetings with participation from traditional financial institutions like Barclays and Société Générale. These developments undoubtedly boosted market confidence in Asia’s crypto ecosystem.
However, the core force driving the price back to 80,000 came more from macro capital flows—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow exceeding $2.6 billion over the past eight trading days, showing a clear rebound in institutional allocation demand; Nvidia’s earnings outlook lifted tech stocks, broadly improving risk appetite; Coinbase’s premium over Binance, a rare occurrence, also indicated the return of U.S. institutional funds.
Therefore, the Hong Kong conference played the role of an “emotional catalyst,” providing narrative support for the market, but the real upward momentum came from the substantial return of institutional capital and improved macro risk appetite. Whether $BTC can hold above 80,000 still depends on the sustainability of active buying going forward. $BTC
Core PCE year-on-year at 3.3% remains steady, inflation sticky, consumption stalled. The Jackson Hole debut by Powell likely offers little guidance, reiterating 2%. For BTC, the speech itself matters less than how the market prices it: if hawkish, 80,000 is easy to give back; if moderate, short-term breathing room remains. Don't bet on a single phrase, watch how US bonds and the dollar move.#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Core PCE remained flat in July, inflation hasn't come down, directly dashing some aggressive easing hopes. Tonight's Jackson Hole speech is a short-term anchor, most likely without clear rate guidance, passing the ball to subsequent data.
Crypto: Risk assets are extremely sensitive to rate expectations, neutral → range-bound; hawkish → quick pullback; only clear dovish signals will trigger a rebound. Event-driven market, position control is essential, don't go all in.
👉Conclusion: Probability of a rate hike in September decreases, but expectations for a rate cut continue to be delayed.
Crypto market forecast: BTC enters a macro-driven high volatility window, neutral speech maintains range-bound; once hawkish tone is released, high Beta coins will face amplified pullback pressure, making it difficult to have a one-sided big move in the short term, mainly event-driven trading.Today, the biggest positive for BTC remains that the money hasn't left: BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for 8 consecutive full trading days, totaling about $2.8 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT absorbing about $200 million again on August 26; ETH ETFs also maintain strong inflows. Therefore, the medium-term trend is still bullish. However, at 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Kevin Warsh will speak at Jackson Hole, while PCE remains high at 3.7%, US Treasury yields are rising again, and oil prices have rebounded by 2%, making tonight the biggest single event risk window in the past week. Core trend positions can continue to be held with the trend, but betting on direction with high leverage tonight is not advisable; what really needs to be watched is whether BTC can hold above 80K–82K after Warsh's speech, and whether IBIT completes its 9th consecutive day of net inflows.Bitcoin's current trading price is $78,353.62, down 1.20% in the past 24 hours. After a weekly gain of 21.82%, the market saw profit-taking, causing Bitcoin's price to face resistance at the $80,000 level. The weekly correlation between Bitcoin and gold reached 94.37%, indicating that both are influenced by similar macro factors during their rise. Although ETF inflows and lower yields support demand, correlation alone does not prove that gold directly drives Bitcoin's increase. Currently, the market needs spot buyers to absorb coins released by profit holders. $BTC $CL 聪明钱空头意图突然放大。 一个过去 30 天盈利约 279k USD、最大回撤约 1.7% 的低回撤钱包，目前持有约 48k USD 的 $CL 空头，同时挂出约 350k USD 的新增卖单阶梯。卖单规模约为现有空仓的 7 倍。 这还不是成交，随时可能撤单，但它清楚显示该钱包正在等待更高位置继续加空。$CL 当前日成交量约 183m USD，价差约 0.12 bps，流动性足以让这组挂单值得跟踪。Let's talk about something practical today, don't get misled by the hype of a “full bull market” — just focus on two key lines: one is the bull-bear dividing line, and the other is Trump's position radar. This is the third time since this bear market that BTC has hit the average cost line of short-term holders. The STH-RP indicator is considered by many analysts in the community as the bull-bear dividing line. The logic is simple: once the price reaches the breakeven line, short-term holders who can't hold on will panic and run, so in a bear market it's always “falling back near the cost line, then retreating again,” repeatedly wearing people down. What everyone cares about most now is: is this the start of a bull market, or just a bear market rebound? If you think it's the start of a bull, press 1; if you think it's a bear, press 2. Every time the price stands above the STH-RP, it must be taken seriously — no one can say for sure if this time is the signal to say goodbye to the bear market for good. Previously, I mentioned that you can start building positions in batches around the 60,000 range. According to the four-year cycle, October is when the next round officially begins. Recently, the most talked-about topics in the market are institutional entry, legislative progress, and the trends of gold and BTC — essentially all revolving around U.S. Treasury bonds. My own observation is: from a time perspective, we are still in a bear market rebound cycle, but looking at various indicators, it does have the flavor of an early bull market. No matter how you look at it, the area around 60,000 is definitely the bottom region, and this big direction is beyond doubt. Recently on-chain data shows many whales have started taking profits on long positions around 80,000, gradually closing positions, and even opening shorts. If it really is a bull market, there will be plenty of opportunities to buy on dips — patience is more important than anything at this stage $SOL 这轮确实是主流山寨里最强的一批，而且不是单靠大盘带起来的，而是几个催化同时叠在一起。 最近SOL重新站上100美元，24小时涨幅一度超过10%，8月累计涨幅已经接近44%。 一、治理投票，市场在交易“供应收缩” Solana正在推进重要治理提案。 简单理解，一个方向是“少发一点SOL”，另一个方向是“多销毁一点SOL”。 所以市场现在交易的逻辑很直接： 新增供应减少 销毁增加 = SOL未来供给压力下降 这会直接影响市场对SOL稀缺性的预期。 二、上市公司还在继续买SOL DeFi Development Corp最近又买了大约1.9万枚SOL，总持仓已经达到约233万枚SOL及SOL等价资产。 这说明SOL正在慢慢出现类似BTC的“企业储备资产”叙事。 以前上市公司囤币，大家第一反应是BTC，现在SOL也开始被部分公司主动配置。 三、Schwab开始把SOL带进传统金融渠道 Charles Schwab宣布，未来几个月会在其Crypto平台增加SOL、AVAX和LINK现货交易。 Schwab拥有超过12万亿美元客户资产和约3900万个活跃经纪账户，这个渠道的意义很大。 简CZ’s view that $BTC could eventually become more important than gold is worth discussing — but I don’t think this is a short-term rotation story. Gold has centuries of monetary history behind it. For major economies, especially in the East, shifting reserves and financial trust toward BTC would take a very long time. So I’m not focused on BTC flipping gold’s entire market cap. If BTC eventually reaches even 20% of gold’s market cap, I’d consider that a massive structural success. And honestly, 1. Probability of Increase: The probability of winning in the evening is significantly higher than in the early morning to morning period. High win rate ranges: 18 points (60%) and 19 points (59%) are the two periods with the highest probability of rising throughout the day, followed closely by 7 o'clock, 13 o'clock, and 22:00 at 56%, showing an overall pattern of "higher win rates during the evening session." Low win rate range: The probability of rising at 6 and 10 points is only 40%, while 1 point (44%) and 0 / 15 points (45%) are also low. The early morning to morning period has significantly weaker upward certainty. 2. Average Gains: Clear break-even gains, with high-return gains concentrated between 4-5 a.m. and 11 p.m. High-return periods: 23 points (53.85), 5 points (53.81), and 4 points (53.30) lead the day, but the probability of rising in these three periods is only 49%-52%, making them high break-even periods with low win rates but large single gains. High loss periods: 21 points (-62.84), 6 points (-40.58), and 2 points (-34.83) have the deepest average declines. Among them, 21 points is the only period with an annualized decline exceeding 60%, with a rising probability of only 48%, indicating weak win rate and profit-loss ratio. Note: Although 18 points has the highest probability of rising all day, the average increase is -5.62, indicating there are many rises during this period, but the declines are more pronounced, dragging down the overall average return. 3. Average volatility: The most intense swings are at 1 AM, and 2 in the eveningThe next phase of AI may not be about being smarter, but about being more profitable.
As the current AI market cycle progresses, the focus of the market is shifting. In the past, people cared more about model parameters, computing power scale, and financing amounts. Now, a more practical question is being asked: Can AI continuously generate revenue and profit?
Companies in the AI industry chain like NVIDIA still show strong performance, but the capital market is no longer satisfied with the answer "AI demand is huge." As AI infrastructure investment increases, investors are starting to focus on whether these investments can ultimately translate into real commercial returns.
This also offers insights for Crypto. In sectors like AI Agent, DePIN, and decentralized computing power, the narrative and future imagination dominated before. Next, they may enter a similar phase: How much are users actually using? How much revenue is generated? Does the product truly solve problems?
I believe the next stage of competition in AI × Web3 will not necessarily be about who has the bigger story, but who can truly turn AI capabilities into sustainable products and cash flow. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
Tonight's debut at Jackson Hole will decide life or death: BTC hanging on the $80k threshold: Hawkish signals sound, will bulls exit?
At 10 PM tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will make his Jackson Hole debut, with the market holding its breath. The backdrop is high inflation, bond market turmoil, and damaged Fed credibility; Wash urgently needs to repair guidance.
Currently, US stocks, BTC (breaking $80,000), ETH, and SOL are surging. The core drivers are the "AI boom + ETF inflows + risk appetite recovery" logic, not expectations of Wash turning dovish.
What key points need attention?
1) How Wash characterizes the recent surge in long-term bond yields—whether it is "desirable tightening" or "risk premium" will set the tone;
2) Whether he clarifies the inflation response mechanism and the optionality of rate hikes;
3) If he remains ambiguous again, market "punishment" will intensify.
Signal judgment: The market is unprepared for hawkishness, with only 7% expecting dovishness. Wash is likely neutral to hawkish, emphasizing unchanged inflation targets but may disappoint the market by withholding guidance.
How should BTC, ETH, and SOL be traded?
BTC: Currently facing strong resistance in the 80k-80.4k range with an 8% supply concentration. If the speech is hawkish or ambiguous, short at 8.05k-8.15k, target 7.85k, stop loss 8.25k; if unexpectedly dovish, a break above 8.2k can be chased long.
SOL/ETH: SOL is catching up but faces heavy resistance at $110. Short SOL at 109-110, target 102, $BTC Bitcoin touched 80,000 but failed to hold, then hovered near the critical level again.
K33 Research says this wave is the "largest single-day short squeeze on record" — last week shorts were liquidated by 7.2 billion, and most of the price increase was driven by short covering, not by everyone rushing to buy. Futures open interest is also declining, so the short squeeze momentum has basically dissipated.
The good news is that ETFs are indeed flowing in with real money. Last week saw a net inflow of 1.92 billion, the strongest single-week inflow in nearly 10 months, with 8 consecutive days of net buying. August has accumulated over 3 billion USD in inflows. The problem is that the higher the price goes, the heavier the profit-taking — short-term holders have transferred over 40,000 $BTC to exchanges after breaking even, marking the largest profit-taking scale this year.
There is another variable today: $6.44 billion worth of BTC options expire on Deribit, with the most concentrated open interest around the 75K and 80K strike prices. Market makers will need to adjust positions, which could amplify short-term volatility.
The short squeeze momentum has passed; whether it can hold now depends on whether ETF and spot buying can absorb the profit-taking at high levels. If they can, the trend will recover; if not, the phase rebound will end. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 XRP's "treasury company" Evernorth is going public — Ripple has finally brought the "institutional finance" narrative to the Nasdaq stage.
This "treasury company + SPAC" structural design is very clever: it bypasses the complexity of a direct IPO while adding a layer of "compliance premium" narrative to XRP. From being a rebel against Swift to becoming an on-chain tool for traditional finance, Ripple's repositioning is very clear.
But there is a fundamental question unresolved: do institutions really need XRP for cross-border payments? Or do they just need the blockchain concept? The financial disclosures after going public will provide the answer — whether it's genuine demand or just narrative premium.#Large Inflows into Gold ETFs, How Will Safe-Haven Funds Reallocate?
The strong inflows into gold ETFs signal that capital is seriously starting to "de-dollarize" its allocation!
Last week, global physical $XAU gold ETFs saw net inflows of $6.38 billion and 46.7 tons, hitting a nearly 10-month high; spot gold briefly surged to $4696, indicating this is no longer just retail investors seeking safety.
More importantly, $BTC is also attracting funds: over the past 7 trading days, spot BTC ETFs had net inflows of about $2.5 billion, while BTC briefly broke above $80,000 during the same period. The simultaneous inflows into gold and BTC show that the market's trading focus has shifted from "rate cuts" to concerns over the US dollar's credit, fiscal deficits, and non-sovereign assets.
However, gold is clearly more crowded in the short term, with futures momentum funds having already front-run after gold rose near $4700; BTC, on the other hand, continues to see ongoing capital inflows. I am more bullish on BTC, followed by gold. It's worth watching now, but don't chase near $80,000—wait for continued ETF inflows to confirm, as BTC's risk-reward ratio looks better.@多多不梭哈 In this case centered around Mywell Technology's financial report, the most worthwhile conclusion is not a fleeting rise or fall, but that "solid earnings" and "stock price must rise" are never the same thing. When the market has already traded for strong expectations, data only slightly exceeds consensus, and the call does not provide sufficiently aggressive long-term guidance, funds may still choose to cash out. What you really need to guard against in event trading is the mismatch in expectations, and simultaneous loss of liquidity and positions. At the start of the livestream, Mywell's financial report had not yet been released. Duoduo did not finalize the direction ahead of time, but waited for the numbers and management's call. He expected sharp fluctuations after the news was realized, so even if he participated, he should prioritize small positions, clear stop-losses, and quick verification. Heavily betting on the side before the earnings report seemed like a big market move, but in reality, he left all uncontrollable gaps, slippages, and information delays to himself. After financial reports gradually emerged, he believed the results themselves were not bad. During the call, it was mentioned that full-year revenue is expected to be about $12 billion, higher than the previous level of about $11.5 billion; The data center business continues to grow rapidly, with gross margin and adjusted profit margins remaining in high ranges. AI data centers, custom chips, optical interconnects, and other business areas continue to provide growth narratives. These details are enough to show that the company's fundamentals have not suddenly deteriorated. However, price performance has not simply followed the "good news." Duoduo's judgment is that the market has already had high expectations for the AI infrastructure chain, and investors are looking not only at the quarterly figures, but also on whether the company can continue to significantly raise its future growth slope. The call was head-onThe most important security promise of hardware wallets is to display transactions pending signing on a separate screen, allowing users to confirm the payment address, amount, and type of operation. On August 27, OneKey's security team disclosed that they had reproduced the transaction replacement issue from the older Ledger Ethereum application version 1.22.1 in the lab: when a device was displaying transaction A, the malicious host could use race conditions to rewrite the underlying signature buffer, causing the device to finally sign transaction B. This does not mean the private key is exported, nor does it mean attackers can control the device remotely only. According to Ledger, attackers first control communication between hardware wallets and hosts, such as sending commands via malware, tampered wallet programs, or malicious websites. What truly breaks the vulnerability is another security boundary: data confirmed by users on the screen must be consistent with the data that last entered the signature algorithm. The controversy centers on how the disclosure method is used, not whether the vulnerability exists. OneKey used an older version to replicate the device; Ledger stated that the issue was discovered through internal security processes. The Ethereum application 1.22.2, released on August 13, has added protection, and on August 21, the underlying issue was fixed in Secure SDK 26.6.1. Ledger currently recommends upgrading to Ethereum app 1.22.3 or higher, and says no evidence of exploitation in real-world environments has been found. For users, the right move is not panic transfers, nor is it clicking Mo