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$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Bitcoin surges back to $80,000! Up 1.4% in 24 hours. But this time it's different — the US spot ETF has had net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, accumulating over $3 billion in August alone, directly breaking the single-month record for 2026! BlackRock's IBIT alone has absorbed 72% of the inflows. Futures leverage hasn't gone crazy; it's the spot institutions genuinely buying with real money. This wave, institutions are playing for real! The data truth: over $2.6-3 billion inflows in 8 days, something retail investors can't pull off. It's traditional capital regaining BTC exposure through compliant products. Bulls vs bears: the $80,000-$83,000 range above is the pressure zone where long-term holders are offloading to break even. But as long as the ETF keeps buying, the selling pressure will be gradually absorbed. A drop below $76,600 (short-term cost line) would mark the end of the rebound. My judgment: this is a critical period shifting from "short squeeze" to "real buying." Don't go all in just because it rises, and don't cut losses just because it falls. Watch the ETF data; as long as it keeps buying, the ETF keeps buying for 8 days straight. Do you think BTC can hold above $80,000 and push toward $86,000? Press 🚀 if you're bullish, press 📉 if you expect a pullback.Core PCE sticks at 3.3%, initial jobless claims unexpectedly drop to 203,000, economic data continues to send mixed signals. Inflation hasn't worsened, employment hasn't weakened, but there's also no reason to ease policy. The probability of a rate hike in September slightly increased after the data release; market trading logic is shifting from "betting on data" to "betting on the framework"—because the data itself can no longer provide decisive evidence in a single direction.
At 10 PM tonight, Waller's speech at Jackson Hole is currently the only external variable that might break the equilibrium. The market is not short of hawkish or dovish judgments, but lacks a reusable decision-making logic: what thresholds of inflation, employment, and financial conditions will trigger action, and where are the functional boundaries between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury in managing long-term interest rates. If Waller continues to use vague wording to avoid building a framework, then divergences in rate hike expectations will only further split, and various assets will be tugged repeatedly within their own logics.
Consensus on direction remains, but rhythm divergences intensify. The dollar and U.S. Treasuries are waiting for a new pricing anchor, gold is constrained by uncertainty in real interest rates, and $BTC is narrowly digesting within the $78,000-$80,000 range; a directional breakout requires an external trigger.
In terms of operations, it is not advisable to heavily bet on one side before the speech. If Waller's wording lacks novelty, the market will most likely vent disappointment through intense two-way volatility. It is far more cost-effective to enter after the framework becomes clear and volatility converges than to bet on direction before the speech. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Why did many people miss out this year, not buying any spot below 60k in June-July, still thinking about the "last dip"? Still not believing that we are currently on the path of reversal? Because most people are stubbornly comparing this to the 2022 and 2018 bear markets, generally believing that the 2026 bull market will start in January next year, just like the previous two bear markets.
In fact, this bear market operates very differently from before. This bear market completed two main down Is the AI boom something NVIDIA "loaned" out?
The financial report is flawless, with perfect revenue and profits.
But one question remains: who is actually buying these GPU orders?
Since when did NVIDIA seem to stop just selling chips? It feels like it's everywhere.
They even asked Wall Street to find funding for AI infrastructure, with some projects even offering residual value support.
Customers don’t have money to buy, so institutions finance them; institutions fear GPU depreciation, so NVIDIA helps support the bottom line.
When this approach works smoothly, it’s called solving funding bottlenecks and turning GPUs into financeable assets.
If it doesn’t go well, it’s a bit like the seller helping the buyer borrow money and then using sales volume to prove strong market demand.
The skepticism from the "big short" prototype isn’t about GPUs not selling, but whether customers can actually make money from these GPUs.
After all, orders can be made in advance through financing, but cash flow isn’t so easy to negotiate.
As long as AI companies can keep making money, this is financial innovation. If they can’t, however lively things are today, there will be many accounts to settle slowly in the future.
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 ETH discussion has clearly slowed down, let's first look at the denominator of this tone group
This round of ETH numbers shows a sense of direction, but I am more concerned about the sample size. OKX Onchain OS recorded 19 mentions in one hour at 12:00 on August 28, with 42% bullish and 11% bearish, and the discussion speed is about 0.62 times the 24-hour hourly average.
A few concentrated reposts can significantly rewrite the ratio, so "bullish clearly dominant" can only describe this batch of texts and cannot be equated with how much capital is betting on the same direction. Regarding sources, X 18 times, news 1 time, also need to pay attention to whether it is the same news repeatedly spread.
Next, see if the tone can be maintained after expanding the sample, then cross-verify with transactions, funding rates, and on-chain activity, which is more reliable than drawing conclusions based on a single percentage.Tonight is setting the tone, not a night of make-up classes. "Can the policy framework be clarified"—if it refers to whether rates will be cut in September, how QT will go, or how inflation will be determined, Jackson Hole's debut is hard to give a complete answer. The theme revolves around financial innovation, and policy implications are mostly brief. But for BTC, that's enough: a loose/hawkish statement can better determine risk appetite than a ten-page speech. Now $79.8k, 24h +1.2%, 7-day +3%. Walsh can't avoid the PCE background: core year-on-year flat at 3.3%, month-on-month from 0.1% to 0.2%. The market likes to read "flat"; stickiness is hidden in "acceleration." Flat year-on-year gives hawks fewer excuses; month-over-month acceleration prevents doves from declaring victory—he doesn't need to repeat the data, but must clarify: stickiness is tolerable or must be suppressed. At 22:00, I only heard three sentences: (1) Do you recognize stickiness or not? (2) Is liquidity loose or tight? (3) Will you wait and see for September or put pressure on the market? Loose → Try $80.0k, high beta follows. Neutral → 78–80k sideways consumption. Hawkish → Focus on $78.0k first. Not betting on crypto mention, betting on whether tone will flip sentiment. Market is also waiting: 16:00 $6.4B options cleared; OI 7-day -4% (deleveraging); 60-day steady 80k only once. ETF surpassing $3B in August is confidence; confidence ≠ should chase tonight. Fear and greed 27→74, sentiment is hot. PCE flat vs. month-on-month acceleration—setting the toneFor a long time, the AI trade felt pretty simple: more AI = more GPUs, more servers, more data centers.
But I think we’re starting to enter a different phase.
The infrastructure buildout is still huge, but now I’m paying much more attention to the software layer. Companies have spent billions building AI capacity the next question is whether software businesses can actually turn that computing power into products people are willing to pay for.
Salesforce is already seeing strong growth from its AI products, while Workday says AI agents are contributing meaningfully to new business. That’s interesting to me because it suggests AI monetization may finally be spreading further downstream.
Personally, I don’t think this means the chip story is finished at all. Nvidia and AI infrastructure are still important. But the next winners might not only be the companies building AI they could also be the companies that figure out how to sell AI effectively.
#AIShiftsToSoftware $BTC $BTC hit a high of $81,500 today, then pulled back to around $79,700. At this level, many people start to feel spot prices are rising too slowly and are preparing to temporarily switch to high-leverage contracts.
Over the past 9 trading days, BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, with $242.3 million bought on August 27; the funding rate is only 0.0066%, the long-short ratio is about 1.01, and the contract market is not currently skewed to one side.
However, the fear and greed index has risen to 71, and the daily RSI is about 80.7. Buying pressure remains, and the short-term market is indeed a bit hot.
Check the line that matches your position:
Empty position: Do not chase between 80,800–81,500. Wait for the price to pull back to around 78,000 with support, or break through 81,500 and then pull back without breaking it.
Spot: Continue to observe above 77,600. Hold the base position if your cost is low, and take partial profits in batches when prices surge; pause adding positions if the daily closes below 77,600.
Contracts: There is a dense liquidation zone for long positions around 75,800. Lower your leverage, set stop losses in advance, and do not mistake the liquidation price for a stop loss.
Going forward, only monitor two signals: whether ETFs continuously turn to net outflows, and whether the daily closes below 77,600. If one appears, the pullback may deepen; if neither appears, treat the area around $80,000 as a temporary consolidation and turnover.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $ETH has been fluctuating repeatedly around $2,430 recently, showing weak intraday performance. Although there has been a slight rise over the past week, it has clearly underperformed BTC and SOL. On the surface, ETH does seem somewhat "unstoryd." But if you look from the candlestick to on-chain data, the situation is not so pessimistic. Recent data shows that large holders holding over 100,000 ETH continue to increase their positions, while the 10,000–100,000 ETH tier holds positions near historical highs. In other words, it currently seems more like large funds quietly absorbing supply rather than retail investor sentiment driving a rally. Meanwhile, US spot ETH ETF funds continue to maintain net inflows. Institutions have not made large-scale withdrawals just because ETH has shortly underperformed BTC or SOL; instead, they continue to take on spot chips in the market. Another point worth watching is ETH's current realized price, which is around $2,380. The current price is not far from this cost zone: not a deep discount after extreme panic, nor an overvaluation zone after a frenzied rally, but more like a middle zone where the cost density of medium- and long-term holders is concentrated. So the current logic is actually very clear: 📉 price performance is not strong 🐋, large players' positions are still increasing 🏦, ETF funds continue to provide buys 🔒, market circulating supply is gradually stabilizing, ETH may not need fundamentals now, but a way to restockJust now, BTC performed a "roller coaster": it surged 25% from 62,000 all the way up to 81,000 USD, then plunged back sharply, now stuck around $79,956 playing dead. Why exactly is it stuck at 80,000? Because today (August 28, 08:00 UTC), 81,700 BTC options on Deribit are expiring, with a notional value of 6.44 billion USD. 75,000 and 80,000 USD are the two strike prices with the most concentrated open interest—there are 236 million call options at 75,000 and 157 million at 80,000. To translate: the whole market’s eyes are fixed on the 80,000 gate, and market makers’ hedging positions will amplify volatility here to the extreme. 🔪 Why the spike and then the drop? On August 26, a sharp drop briefly pushed BTC below 78,000, liquidating 270 million USD worth of longs. This wasn’t a normal correction; it was market makers’ "Gamma hedging" ahead of options expiry causing the disturbance—they actively buy and sell BTC near key strike prices to hedge risk, resulting in the price being repeatedly rubbed between 75,000 and 80,000. 💰 Is the 6.4 billion USD a real cash dump? No. The 6.44 billion is the "notional value," not actual funds entering the market. In fact, 62% of contracts will expire worthless (options expiring worthless), and only a small portion actually causes cash flow. But even so, Deribit’s Chief Risk Officer Shaun Fernando personally admitted: the current BTC market price$XAU Gold is still the same gold, but the reasons to buy it have changed
Gold fell from 4697 to 4610, failed three times to break 4700, and is oscillating around 4600 in the short term. But looking at the funds is more concrete: 165 long whales have an 84% win rate, with positions twice that of shorts; 108 shorts are still holding losses, making it clear who controls the direction.
The three failed attempts to break the top only resulted in a $90 pullback, and the buying pressure below is not weak. Overall, gold rose by $600 in August, and the monthly chart still shows a bullish pattern. Citibank forecasts 4800 in 3 months and 5000 in 6 months; institutions are not just talking—they have already taken positions.
But the biggest change in gold is the shift in logic. The Grayscale report shows that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has exceeded 50%. With US debt surpassing 40 trillion, the market is re-evaluating fiat currency credit, and gold is being reallocated as a scarce asset, not just an old-school safe haven.
In terms of trading, aggressive traders can try going long at the current price, while conservative ones should wait for stabilization around 4550-4570 before entering; consider short positions only if resistance appears between 4635-4680. Avoid heavy positions before the Fed speech; I've seen this many times—once the speech starts, the market turns quickly. The long-term logic is strengthening, so don't misstep on short-term rhythm. I'll share specific levels in the chat room in real time.
—Aze #Gold rose about 14% in August #KOSPI falls due to cooling AI enthusiasmEntering October 2026, the crypto market continues the box-range oscillation pattern seen in September. Bitcoin remains trading between 74,000 and 80,000 USD, while Ethereum holds steady in the 2,300 to 2,500 USD range. As the Federal Reserve's October interest rate meeting approaches, concerns about a prolonged high interest rate cycle are rising. The inflow pace of Bitcoin spot ETFs has marginally slowed, with significant single-day net outflows occurring at the end of the month. Ethereum ETF funds have become more volatile, with existing supply competition further intensifying. The strength divergence between BTC and ETH became increasingly apparent in early October. On the capital side, Bitcoin spot ETFs still maintain a net monthly inflow overall, but the inflow scale has sharply contracted compared to the short squeeze phase in August. Leading BlackRock IBIT steadily increased positions earlier but saw short-term redemptions at month-end due to macroeconomic expectations disturbances. Smaller ETF funds continue to consolidate towards the leaders, with institutions shifting from aggressive accumulation to cautious observation. On-chain exchange Bitcoin holdings remain at historically low levels, with whale addresses continuing to hold coins offline. Long-term selling pressure is controllable, but multiple attempts to break the 80,000 USD level lack sufficient volume, and existing capital turnover struggles to drive an effective breakout. Ethereum ETF net inflows remain weak and fragmented. Layer 2 network transaction activity is stable, but ongoing staking unlocks continue to release circulating supply. The DeFi ecosystem lacks blockbuster applications to drive revenue growth, and the ETH/BTC price ratio remains under pressure. Capital preferentially flows to Bitcoin as a safe haven, making it harder for Ethereum to strengthen independently. Speculative sentiment in the derivatives market continues to cool. Perpetual contract funding rates have long hovered near zero, with long and short positions tending towards balance, and leverage positions held$NVDA's market value surged by $442 billion overnight last night. It rose 8.7%, completely breaking the curse of its earnings day always dropping. Revenue reached 96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, with Q3 guidance at 108 billion, and a preliminary outlook for fiscal year 2028 growth of 70%.
Brothers, do you know what this number means for the crypto world? Last night, among the eleven sectors of the S&P 500, only the tech sector rose; the average S&P stock actually fell. What is this? This is a typical liquidity clustering—there isn't much money, but all the money is squeezed into the most crowded risk asset track. And BTC is never a bystander in this environment; it is the thermometer of risk appetite. On days when the Nasdaq rises 1.5%, BTC rises 3%, with a magnification effect always between 1.5 to 2 times. Today BTC broke 81,000, up 2.78%, perfectly fitting the script.
But this clustering market has a fatal weakness: all risk assets share a single liquidity pipeline. After Nvidia's earnings, the market is now fixated on one person—Powell. Every word from this Federal Reserve chair is a valve on the pipeline; if he leans hawkish, tech stocks and BTC go silent together; if he eases, liquidity continues to pour into risk assets. The market's current situation is: fundamentals have ignited the fire, but the valve is in someone else's hands.
I'm watching this market with the script in mind: there is one more stress test in September, either Powell or CPI, one of the two. The first target is to rise above 82,500 before the test; the pit caused by the test will be the last cheap chips of this round.
#Nvidia #Macro #Liquidity NVIDIA's Q2 revenue reached $96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%, with data center revenue at $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. More importantly, within data center revenue, hyperscale customers (cloud providers) contributed $49 billion, while another $40 billion came from AI cloud, industrial enterprises, sovereign AI, and other non-hyperscale customers. Jensen Huang said at the earnings call that AI customers are spreading from "a few clouds" to the entire society. Hardware demand has not stopped, and the number of buyers is increasing. But the truly noteworthy signal is on the software side. Salesforce's Q2 revenue was $11.35 billion, up 11% year-over-year. The real highlight is AI products—Agentforce and Data 360—with combined annual recurring revenue approaching $3.9 billion, soaring over 210% year-over-year. Among them, Agentforce alone has an annualized revenue of $1.5 billion, up 240% year-over-year. After-hours stock price rose nearly 13%. Palantir's Q2 revenue was $1.935 billion, up 93% year-over-year. U.S. commercial business revenue was $764 million, surging 149% year-over-year. Net profit was $1.062 billion, up 225% year-over-year. After-hours stock rose over 9%. ServiceNow's Q2 revenue was $3.987 billion, up 24% year-over-year. AI business annual contract value surpassed $1 billion for the first time. A batch of software companies are simultaneously validating this trend. Okta surged 28.6% after earnings, CrowdStrike rose 20.5%. Risk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to pay attention to risks. In 2026, the global crypto regulatory framework will gradually be implemented. The US SEC and CFTC will introduce unified classification rules, classifying Bitcoin and Ethereum as digital commodities, and exempting staking and mining from securities regulation, completely ending the long-standing period of qualitative ambiguity. Regulation is shifting from high-pressure enforcement and uncertainty suppression to standardized and regulated management. This change is reshaping the pricing logic of the two major currencies and is also leading to a redistribution of global compliant funds. The relative strength of BTC and ETH will show new characteristics under the new regulatory environment. Bitcoin, with its long-established commodity positioning, is the most direct beneficiary of the new regulations. The inflow logic of ETF funds is no longer affected by concerns about securities qualitativeness, greatly enhancing institutional allocation certainty. Traditional long-term funds such as pensions and family offices will further increase allocation allocations as legal risks decrease. However, institutional capital behavior patterns have not changed; they still dynamically adjust positions anchored to macro liquidity and risk-reward ratios. After rapid price rises, willingness to take profits will continue to rise accordingly. Long-term holders' low-cost tokens form bottom support, but selling pressure from historical trapped and swing profit-taking positions objectively exists, and the risk of mid-level drawdowns will not disappear due to clear regulation. Bitcoin's essence of no endogenous cash flow has not changed; valuations remain tied to global liquidity and market consensus. Once the macro environment shifts, the valuation center will still face downward pressure去中心化是公链的核心生命线，全节点、验证节点的运行门槛、客户端生态、全球地域分布，直接决定网络抗攻击、抗审查、抗单点故障的能力。比特币与以太坊在节点设计逻辑上走向了不同路线，去中心化的实现方式、短板优势各有侧重。 比特币的节点体系分为两层：记账算力节点（矿工）与全验证节点。比特币全节点硬件门槛极低，普通家用电脑即可运行，同步账本数据体量适中，任何人都能无偿运行全节点独立校验交易，不依赖第三方信任。全网公开可观测全节点约2万余个，加上隐私网络隐藏节点总数超7万，地理上覆盖全球百余个国家，美国、德国、法国节点分布相对均衡，大量节点通过Tor隐私网络隐匿位置，地域集中度更低。 比特币的短板在于客户端生态单一，长期以Bitcoin Core为主导，第三方客户端市场占比偏低，代码开发话语权高度集中在核心开发团队手中；同时PoW记账权集中在头部矿池，算力存在一定集中度，记账层面的去中心化弱于验证节点层面。但比特币社区长期坚持低门槛全节点策略，普通大众可低成本参与网络监督，全网账本校验的去中心化程度极高，任何单一区域、单一机构都无法篡改全网共识。 以太坊在切换PoS之后，形成了验证者节点+全节点的双Damn! $SOL, is it really about to take off big this time?
Actually, one reason is that the U.S. Treasury is buying back government bonds. Previously, they bought 2 billion at a time, now they’ve doubled to start at 4 billion. Bonds are being bought up, so there’s more cash in the market, interest rates drop, and money starts flowing into risk assets.
Crypto rises along with it, and volatile ones like SOL rise even more sharply.
Institutions are also buying with real money. Solana’s ETF is getting money every day, tens of millions of dollars daily, adding up to quite a lot in a week. Big banks are buying, and Schwab is even preparing to open SOL trading for regular clients. It’s not retail investors pumping each other up; big money from outside is entering.
Short sellers are even worse off. Many had short positions, but when the price pulls up, their positions get liquidated immediately. SOL alone liquidated over 10 million in shorts in one day, and the market liquidated tens of billions in a few days. Shorts are forced to buy back to close positions, effectively helping push the price up—the more liquidations, the higher it goes.
On-chain voting is still ongoing, aiming to issue fewer coins and burn more fees. Trading volume has also hit new highs. Several factors combined have driven the price up like this.
It will definitely still jump around and spike back and forth later, so don’t expect a straight skyrocket.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 HYPE has recently experienced a wave of hype driven by the narrative of buyback and burn funded by exchange transaction fees, with the token price surging significantly from a low point, reaching a high of 86.798 and currently at 83.362. Market sentiment amplifies the positive effects of buyback deflation but downplays the imminent large-scale token unlock.
Tomorrow morning, 14.17 million tokens will be unlocked, accounting for 6-7% of the circulating supply, with nearly half held by insiders, objectively bringing potential selling pressure. The total unlock volume is close to the platform's buyback and burn scale over the past two years. However, unlocking does not necessarily mean a concentrated sell-off; if market enthusiasm remains high, selling pressure can be absorbed by buyers, possibly even triggering a short squeeze.
The 86-87 range is a key resistance level; failure to break through and a confirmed drop below 80.45 will fully release the negative impact of the unlock. The contract market is dominated by bulls, with significant volatility risk, so one should not rely solely on event-driven trading. This article is for market information only and does not constitute investment advice.$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Many traders' holding patterns remain unchanged once they build their positions. After buying $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, regardless of market style changes, sector rotation, or emotional coolness, the proportion of holdings remains fixed year-round: holding on when prices rise and holding on when prices fall. After a bull market, even though the coins in the portfolio have seen significant gains, the final account returns still lag behind the market. The root cause is a lack of awareness of regular position rebalancing. Most articles on the market only discuss how to buy, rarely discussing how to dynamically adjust weights during the holding process. This is the key reason for unrealized gains and sharp profit shrinkage. 1. Why is it difficult to earn excess returns in the institutional era? In the past bull market, when all coins rose or fell together, holding positions could reap most of the dividends. But the current market is structural, with liquidity constantly flowing among leading mainstream, mid-cap public chains, and small-cap themes. When leading players siphon funds, mid-cap coins move sideways for a long time; When liquidity overflows, mid-cap coins explode in the short term; When sentiment fades, small-cap coins lose blood first. If your position allocation is always fixed, you will encounter: during the leader suction phase, you heavily hold counterfeit assets and waste time; during the hot rotation phase, your base position is overloaded and you miss out on elastic returns; at a high market level, high-risk positions fail to shrink in time, eventually consuming all profits after pullbacks. Position positions remain unchanged, essentially using static holdings to cope with a dynamically changing market. 2. The underlying logic of position rebalancing: peak shaving and valley filling, locking in profits. The core principle is very simple: reduce overvalued stocks when prices rise, add positions in undervalued stocks on pullbacks, and always close your positionsOn Thursday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $242 million, and Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $234 million, with institutional funds continuing to enter the market. Tonight at 10 PM, Powell will deliver a speech at Jackson Hole, which may hold the wealth code for the next six months: where interest rates are headed, how the dollar's credit is priced, and whether funds will continue to stay in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries or flow into gold, BTC, and tech stocks. If the tone is dovish, the interest rate expectations suppressing risk assets will ease, and the market could break upward directly next week. $BTC This morning, $$BTC daily closed above 80,000. As long as it continues to hold above 80k today, it won't be considered a false breakout.
The major support is around 77,250, and the minor support is near 79,300. Both positions are good entry points for long positions.
Tonight, Powell's speech at Jackson Hole is unlikely to directly tell the market whether there will be a rate hike in September or not; instead, he will likely leave room to decide based on upcoming data.
In other words, no early commitment to a September rate hike or cut.
If a rate cut is announced too early: if oil prices, tariffs, and demand push inflation back up, it would be like surrendering the policy tool, and reinstating it later would damage credibility. Financial conditions would loosen first and then tighten, causing greater volatility.
Conversely, if inflation clearly falls later, raising rates now and then quickly reversing would also make the reaction function appear erratic and make market pricing more difficult.
Therefore, "waiting for more data and not giving clear guidance for September tonight" means not wanting to bet before both paths are clear.
If nothing unexpected happens tonight, I believe the price will continue to rise. Even if it falls back, it will be a small retracement of 1,000-2,000 points, after which you can continue to enter long positions, targeting the 85,000-90,000 range.Recently, $BTC has violently rebounded over 24% from the low on August 17, reaching a high of $81,265, instantly shifting market sentiment from ICU to KTV. After surging past 80,000, it has now consolidated around $78,000-$79,000 — is this a bull market restart or an impressive "short squeeze" performance? I'll share my views from several dimensions.
1. How did this sharp rise come about?
1. The largest short liquidation in history, a violent short squeeze
On August 21, the total market short liquidation was about $2.7 billion. On August 19, Glassnode recorded the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019, with about 85% of liquidations concentrated on shorts. A large number of shorts were forcibly closed, forming a typical "short squeeze" scenario.
2. Improvement in macro liquidity expectations
The U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases to no less than $4 billion each time. The market interpreted this as a positive signal of liquidity improvement, causing the dollar index to weaken and funds to flow into non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin and gold. Meanwhile, global M2 money supply hit a historic high.
3. Continuous release of favorable regulatory policies
Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House, urging Congress to advance the CLARITY Act; the SEC proposed the "Crypto Asset Rules" and custody rule reforms, described as "regulatory easing." These policy tailwinds reduce institutional entry uncertainties.
4. Continuous inflow of institutional funds
From August 17 to 21, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow was about $1.918 billion, with August's cumulative inflow exceeding $3 billion. On August 19 alone, net inflow reached $517 million, a three-month high.
2. Current key points of contention
$83,000 is the "bull-bear dividing line"
CryptoQuant's bullish score surged from 30 to 80 within 7 days, but technically, $83,000 is the 365-day moving average and also the resistance convergence zone at the May high of $82,814. Analysts generally believe that only a weekly close above $83,000 can officially confirm a trend reversal.
Short-term overheating signals have lit up
Retail investors' unrealized profit rate rose to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025; whales realized $614 million in profits on August 20, the highest this year; the 14-day RSI once reached 83.63, indicating severe overbought conditions. These signals warn that short-term correction risks cannot be ignored.
Uncertainty at the macro level
July's PCE overall inflation rate was 3.7%, core inflation 3.3%, both above the Fed's 2% target. The probability of a rate hike in September has risen from 36% to 44%. Fed Chair Wash's speech at Jackson Hole will be a key variable.
Structural issues revealed by on-chain data
U.S. spot buying power is clearly lacking — Coinbase premium index shows negative values on both daily and hourly levels. The total market cap of the top 50 publicly listed Bitcoin holders dropped sharply from $150 billion in July 2025 to $67 billion in August 2026. This indicates the current rise is mainly driven by derivatives and sentiment, with real spot buying support still insufficient.
3. What about the future?
Optimistic scenario: If $83,000 is effectively broken and ETF funds continue to flow in, institutions like Bernstein set year-end targets between $100,000-$125,000, even seeing $150,000 by mid-2027.
Neutral scenario: Wide oscillation between $76,000-$83,000, using time to create space and complete chip rotation.
Pessimistic scenario: If macro liquidity tightens or ETF inflows stall, a pullback to $70,000 or even the $62,000-$65,000 range is possible.
Summary
BTC is currently at a critical crossroads of technical and macro factors. $83,000 is the "line of life and death" — breaking above opens new space; failing to do so likely returns to consolidation. This rise is supported by macro liquidity and policy benefits, not purely a short squeeze, but short-term overheating signals and Fed policy uncertainty mean chasing highs requires caution, while pullback layouts are more composed. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice$500 billion is fleeing banks, and banks have finally fought back. Banks' livelihoods are about to be lost. You might have overlooked one number: stablecoins have reached $263 billion in circulation. What does that mean? It's equivalent to the M2 of a medium-sized country, and it's growing at billions of dollars per month. What's even more painful is that this money should have been stored in banks. And now? USDC and USDT are like two digital pipelines, delivering dollars to every networked corner of the world—24/7, cross-border transfers arrive in minutes, fees are almost zero, and you can directly connect to DeFi smart contracts to generate interest. And what about banks' cross-border payments? SWIFT wire transfers take 3 to 5 working days, fees range from tens to hundreds of dollars, and you don't even have to work on weekends. This gap is like high-speed rail versus green trains. Standard Chartered Bank did a calculation that made the banking community break out in a cold sweat: by 2028, stablecoins could extract as much as $500 billion in deposits from the US banking system. What does $500 billion mean? Wells Fargo, the fourth largest bank in the US, has total deposits of only about $1.3 trillion. $500 billion means half of Wells Fargo's deposits are about to be moved. What is deposit? It's the lifeblood of a bank. Banks make money by lending through deposits; once deposits are gone, lending capacity disappears, profits disappear. So banks finally can't sit still. Their countermeasure is called tokenized deposits. First, understand: stablecoins and tokenized depositsWalsh will appear tonight at Jackson Hole, and the real risk is not whether to cut interest rates, but how he defines "inflation"
Tonight, at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, Walsh will deliver a speech at Jackson Hole.
The importance of this speech now is not because everyone is waiting for him to announce a rate hike or cut in September, but because the Federal Reserve has left the market with a big question: inflation has not yet returned to 2%, so what exactly is the policy direction?
As of the week ending August 22, initial jobless claims in the US have dropped to 203,000, declining for the second consecutive week, and the unemployment rate has previously fallen to 4.1%, showing no obvious signs of employment slowdown.
More crucial is inflation.
US July PCE year-over-year was 3.7%, maintaining this level for two consecutive months, clearly above the Fed's 2% target; core PCE remains above 3%. In other words, the Fed does not currently have an environment where "inflation is resolved and it can safely pivot."
So I think the most important thing to watch tonight is not whether Walsh will directly give an answer for September.
He probably won't.
What really matters is whether he will provide a clearer policy framework.
If Walsh continues to emphasize inflation risks while remaining vague about the September meeting, then the dollar and US Treasury yields may regain support, and gold and BTC will face short-term pressure. BTC's recent return near $80,000 is largely due to spot ETF net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.8 billion. But if the Fed's speech is more hawkish than expected, this ETF-driven rally could see a sharp pullback.
However, if Walsh acknowledges that inflation remains high but focuses on economic growth, financial conditions, and long-term yields, signaling "no rush to tighten further," the market's interpretation could be completely different.
Because the real trouble now is: short-term rates are decided by the Fed, but long-term yields have started to rise on their own. The 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.6%, and the 30-year yield once surged above 5%. How Walsh handles the "high inflation, high debt, and high long-term yields" issues may be more important than a simple rate hike or no hike.
My view is that this Jackson Hole is likely not a night to give the market a gift, but a repricing.
Recently, US stocks have been excited again due to Nvidia's earnings, BTC has rebounded with ETF inflows, and gold is oscillating at high levels. On the surface, both risk assets and safe havens seem to be rising, but the underlying logic is not entirely the same.
If Walsh's speech is hawkish, profit-taking in BTC after reaching $80,000 may come first, gold may face pressure, and the dollar and yields could rebound.
If the speech is not as tough as the market imagines, or even expresses concerns about financial conditions and long-term rates, the recently returned risk appetite may continue.
So tonight I won't just focus on "what Walsh says."
More importantly, watch whether the dollar rises after his speech, how US Treasury yields move, and whether BTC can hold $80,000.
Because at this point, prices are often more honest than the speech itself.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $NVDA has once again come out to save the world.
EPS exceeded expectations by 6.22%, revenue exceeded expectations by 4.28%, even though the estimates had already been significantly raised, it’s still a double beat, directly driving the three major US stock indices upward, with Nasdaq rising 1.44%.
But aside from NVDA, many stocks that were lifted by AI are still severely overbought. Warning signals have appeared: NVDA surged, but MU fell 2.66%, and WDC and $SNDK also declined. It’s very likely that everyone is using such impressive earnings reports to pump the market for a final round of selling. Whether it can follow through is the key point, so everyone needs to be especially cautious.
On the cryptocurrency side, $BTC has once again returned above 80,000, but I think it’s not very meaningful, as it still encounters resistance at the 50-week moving average. The key is whether it can break through 82,700 and go above 83,000. Now all eyes are on Bitcoin; as long as a higher high appears, we can officially declare that the bottom of this bear market round is around the 57,000 level.At 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh will deliver the keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. This is Walsh's first time taking the core stage at Jackson Hole as the Federal Reserve Chairman. The official Federal Reserve schedule shows that the speech is scheduled to begin at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. (Federal Reserve) On the surface, the market seems to be concerned about only one question: will Walsh pave the way for a rate hike in September? But what will truly determine the pricing logic of $DXY, $US10Y, $XAUUSD, as well as crypto assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL in the coming months may not be whether Walsh gives a "hike" or "no hike" answer tonight, but whether he can clearly explain for the first time: what kind of inflation, employment, and financial conditions will truly trigger the Federal Reserve to change its policy. In other words, the market is not waiting for a forward guidance statement, but a set of policy response functions belonging to the "Walsh era." Inflation is not low enough, employment is not bad enough, and the Federal Reserve is in the most difficult trading zone. The macro environment Walsh faces tonight is not easy. The overall U.S. PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, and the core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year, both significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target; the core PCE also rose 0.2% month-on-month. More notably, the overall PCE has been above 2% year-on-year for 65 consecutive months. (Bureau of Economic Analysis) Meanwhile, the labor market has not deteriorated enough to force the Federal Reserve to quickly turn dovish. U.S. Department of Labor data shows The current price is about $106.8, up about 6.4% in 24 hours, and at one point surged to $109.7 intraday, just one step away from $110. Why has SOL been clearly outperforming many mainstream coins recently? 1️⃣ The price is strong, and funds have not shown a significant deep pullback after SOL broke through $100, so short-term capital support remains relatively active. The gains have expanded significantly over the past week, and the relative performance of SOL/BTC has also improved, indicating that some funds are seeking stronger elasticity amid BTC's high-level fluctuations. 2️⃣ ETF funds have become an important catalyst Solana spot ETFs have recently seen continuous net inflows, with about $33.5 million in a single day on August 24, pushing cumulative net inflows to about $1.22 billion; Meanwhile, trading activity in related ETFs continues to heat up. More notably, Bitwise's SOL ETF has recently broken daily trading volume records for consecutive years, indicating that institutional and market funds are paying significant attention 3️to SOL. ⃣ Ecosystem narrative is heating up Besides the price itself, DEXs, stablecoins, and RWA/tokenized asset activity on Solana remain market focuses. The development of on-chain stock assets like xStocks further reinforces Solana's narrative as a highly active trading network. 4️⃣ But the stronger it is, the more you must guard against drawdowns The biggest issue now is not whether SOL has room to rise, but rather$BTC $ETH Today, BTC has $6.44 billion in options expiring, with a total of 81,700 contracts. There are more calls than puts, with the most chips stacked at the 75,000 and 80,000 strike prices.
At expiration, market makers' hedging will tug the market, but options only cause short-term volatility. The real focus is tonight's central bank annual meeting. If the speech leans hawkish, US Treasury yields will rise, and combined with expiration closing and macro bearish factors, it could easily crash the market; but if it leans dovish, there is a chance to see above 82,000.
However, caution is needed. We cannot bet hard. With this double event overlay, volatility will only be large, not small. A wise person does not stand under a dangerous wall. It's best to stay on the sidelines intraday. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $ETH is stuck around $2,500.
Up nothing today. Up a bit on the week. Still lagging BTC and SOL. That’s the part everyone can see, and yeah it’s frustrating.
The part most people skip is the onchain tape.
Addresses holding 100k+ ETH have been accumulating for a long time. The 10k–100k cohort is sitting on a historic high stack. This is not retail FOMO. This is size adding while the chart looks boring.
Spot ETFs are still net buyers. Institutions didn’t dump just because ETH underperformed for a few sessions. They kept taking supply.
Then the key level: realized price is sitting right around here. Current price is basically hugging the average cost of coins that last moved on-chain. Not cheap like a capitulation bottom. Not expensive like a euphoria top. Just the zone where smart money’s book lives.
So the setup is simple:
Price looks weak.
Holders with size are not weak.
ETF bid is still there.
Supply is getting quieter, not louder.
ETH doesn’t need a speech. It needs a catalyst. Until then, this is the unglamorous part of a cycle the part where people get bored and rotate, and the people who already did the work just sit.
I’m holding the long term bag. Watching SOL rip while ETH crawls is annoying. I’m not going to pretend it isn’t.
Sentiment is loud. Structure is quieter. I’m listening to the second one.
$ETH
#ETHTests2500 $SNDK
Brothers, how many of you ignored the warnings and bought SanDisk last night?
Qiang said it very clearly yesterday—treat SanDisk like a shitcoin. It’s highly volatile and tends to move opposite to market sentiment.
Yesterday Nvidia’s earnings blew up, procurement commitments more than doubled, and SanDisk jumped over 3% pre-market, with the whole market shouting "storage is about to take off." Qiang said, "I don’t think it can break 1800," so what happened? As soon as the US market opened, funds started dumping. Morgan Stanley had already reclassified Nvidia as the top pick in the semiconductor sector before the earnings, clearly stating that funds would flow back from storage to Nvidia. What was good news turned into bad news, and everyone who chased the rally got stuck at the peak.
This script is too familiar. Big good news → pre-market pump → open market dump, a classic "sell the news" play. Expectations were too high, so when the news actually came out, it became a reason to sell.
Isn’t this just a pure pump-and-dump coin? It makes no sense when it goes up, and no sense when it goes down. Instead of struggling to analyze SanDisk, it’s better to just play Bitcoin and Ethereum honestly; at least their direction is clear and they move steadily Last October, Bitcoin was at $126,000, and the whole network was shouting "A million is not a dream." Today, at $80,000, the whole network is shouting "The bull is back."
No one mentions the 40% drop in between.
I'm not trying to be a downer—ETF funds are indeed pouring in crazily, and the logic of devaluation trading does hold. But when a market's greed index soars to 83, and a 20% weekly gain is mainly driven by short squeeze liquidations rather than spot buying, you have to ask yourself one question:
Is this round institutions bottom-fishing, or are retail investors taking the risk?
Tonight, $6.4 billion in options expire + Fed speech, a double bomb.
Smart money never adds positions when everyone else is excited.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC The market trend fully confirmed yesterday's judgment: yesterday, the dog holder's tail-end volume contraction rally to ¥615.03 was purely a bluff "bull trap." Today, after a gap-down opening, the spot price dropped all the way, directly erasing all of yesterday's gains and closing near the day's lowest point. 1. Opened with a gap-down plunge (bull trap busted):
Yesterday's close: ¥615.03
Today's open: ¥605.00 (a direct gap-down open of ¥10, trapping funds that chased the high at yesterday's close)
Today's close: ¥585.00 (-4.88%), a sharp drop of ¥30.03 compared to yesterday's close.
2. The internal market heavily suppressed the external market (extremely heavy selling pressure):
Internal market (active sell orders): 35,400 lots
External market (active buy orders): 21,400 lots
Analysis: The internal market exceeded the external market by 14,000 lots (internal market accounts for over 62%), indicating that throughout today, funds actively placed orders to dump positions at any cost, and bulls almost gave up resisting.
3. The average price line turned downward (locked-in positions accumulating):
Average transaction price for the day: ¥592.55
Analysis: The closing price (¥585.00) is below the daily average price (¥592.55) and close to the day's lowest point of ¥584.88. The ¥3.363 billion funds (turnover rate 18.86%) that traded above ¥592 have all fallen into unrealized losses, forming a new heavy locked-in position.
4. Volume ratio and no support after hours:
Volume ratio: 0.86 (shrinking volume with a slow decline, indicating weak buying support; even a small amount of selling pressure can push the price very low).
After-hours trading: only 23 lots (¥1.34 million), with no bottom-fishing funds entering after close.
Currently, the stock price has broken below the ¥590 integer level and closed near the lowest point with a bare candlestick, technically showing a typical weak bottom-seeking pattern: ironically, the Securities Daily still published an article? It's just continuing to deceive retail investors. We remain firmly bearish, with daily arbitrage opportunities of about 10%.#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Tonight at 10 PM, Walsh makes his debut at Jackson Hole. Let me be clear: don’t expect him to present a fully formed policy framework.
This guy just took office in May, formed five working groups in June, and had the team in place by July. Counting fully, that’s only two months. A framework isn’t something that can be finalized just by a breeze in the mountains.
He himself said the draft is like a “blank sheet.” Most likely, it will be a macro narrative plus hawkish confidence: reiterating that inflation isn’t over, keeping rate hike options open, cutting forward guidance, and clarifying the boundary between the Fed and the Treasury.
From a mid-term perspective, what he’s giving is a “sense of direction,” not a “roadmap” — the reaction function is vague, and he’s not revealing whether there will be a hike in September.
The market wants an anchor, but he’s giving fog. Tonight, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries will jitter in the short term, but the real framework depends on the working groups’ output, which will come in the next few quarters.
For those of us holding mid-term positions, don’t get led by the debut’s rhythm. Focus on the upcoming PCE and the September FOMC — that’s the real deal.
$BTC Good news piles up, yet Samsung plummets wildly! Behind the capital flight lies a harsh truth
Samsung's good news piles up—NVIDIA's HBM4E orders landed, Vietnam attracts investment, yet the stock price stubbornly falls instead of rising. The reason is simple: the positive news from NVIDIA's earnings report was already priced in yesterday, and the actual news release triggered the capital to flee.
Technically, RSI dropped to 38.9, close to oversold, MACD remains in a bearish alignment, the trend hasn't reversed yet. The capital battle is even more intense: the whale short position holds 12.19 million USDT with a 90% unrealized profit; the long side only has 7.29 million and is still losing money. Capital flow score is -78, with a 7-day net outflow of -1630%, confirming medium- to long-term capital is indeed withdrawing. But the company itself repurchased 1.96 trillion KRW, foreign investors sell while the company buys, a direct confrontation between bulls and bears.
The liquidation map shows a dense long liquidation zone below of about 18 million USDT, much larger than above; if the price continues downward, it will trigger a chain of liquidations, accelerating the drop to the critical support at 170-171, with resistance at 196-197 above. On August 3rd, a similar structure saw the price fall directly from 190 to 170.
In terms of operation, aggressive traders lightly try longs at the current price with proper stop-loss; conservative traders wait to short near 196. Short-term bears dominate, but I am not bearish mid-term—HBM demand exists, and the buyback is real money. Watch closely if 170 can hold; a capital flow score rising above -50 is the signal for stabilization.
—Aze #KOSPI Korean stocks fall as AI hype cools #TAIEX Taiwan stocks rebound to 46500 points driven by chip stocksThe core contradiction lies in the severe divergence between the strong rebound in U.S. stocks and the tightening economic fundamentals. Tonight's Fed keynote speech will directly reshape market expectations for rate cuts. Against the backdrop of core PCE above target and initial jobless claims falling to 203,000, a hawkish bias that maintains high interest rates for longer remains the baseline scenario.
Market facts show a significant surge in U.S. tech stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 1.57%. Nvidia soared 8.74% in a single day, adding $442 billion in market value, while crude oil prices returned to $90. These asset price rebounds have greatly boosted risk appetite, but the fundamentals lack corresponding policy shift support.
Sticky inflation and robust employment data are the primary drivers of policy transmission. Initial jobless claims remain low at 203,000, combined with oil prices rebounding to $90, intensifying inflationary pressures and directly weakening the Fed's short-term rate cut rationale.
The upside scenario is a market rebound driven by expectation gaps. If Waller's speech does not clearly confirm a high-rate path or suggests room for policy framework adjustments, risk appetite previously suppressed by hawkish official signals will quickly release, driving short-term short squeezes in U.S. stocks and continued cross-market asset gains. The failure signal for this scenario would be a strong synchronous breakout in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index.
The downside scenario is a hawkish certainty triggering a high-level pullback. If Waller clearly reiterates maintaining high rates or emphasizes inflation control priority, the 203,000 jobless claims and strong inflation will be repriced by the market, and concentrated profit-taking in high-level long positions may cause a sharp U.S. stock pullback and increased volatility across risk assets. The failure signal for this scenario would be a rapid decline in oil prices breaking recent support levels.
The key variables to watch in the next 24 hours are the 22:00 keynote speech's tone on the policy framework and the intraday synchronous feedback of the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议After 14 consecutive days of negative BTC, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index rebounded to 0 on August 26. However, this rebound was accompanied by large-scale profit-taking: last week, the average profit reached $933 million, up 824% month-on-month; Exchange inflows for tokens over 1 to 3 months increased by 280%, with wallets between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC seeing daily inflows of 1,136 BTC (+235%). Traffic differences among exchanges are significant: Binance's average net inflow was +2,184 BTC, while the total exchange net outflow was -2,372 BTC. Coinbase saw 3,499 BTC outflows in a single day, coinciding with the day the premium reached zero. Bull liquidations rose 469% week-on-week, far exceeding the 15% of short liquidations. Stablecoins continue to flow out, and buying support is weakening. Analysts point out that history shows that under this structure, the probability of range-bound oscillations or shallow pullbacks is higher than direct upward trends. To sustain the uptrend, the premium must remain above zero and stablecoin net inflows turn positive, so only the first condition is currently metOn Thursday, August 27, the US stock market showed a typical independent tech stock rally: the S&P 500 closed up 0.72%, the Nasdaq surged 1.57%, with the S&P Information Technology sector rising as much as 3.4%. However, market divergence was very pronounced, with ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors closing lower; the index's rise was almost entirely driven by leading large-cap tech stocks.
The core driver of the market was Nvidia's earnings report igniting the AI theme: NVDA surged 8.7% that day, serving as the market's main engine. The company’s guidance significantly exceeded expectations, forecasting about 70% revenue growth for the new fiscal year, well above Morgan Stanley’s 52% and the market consensus of 40%, prompting a market revaluation and recognition that the AI capital expenditure cycle has not yet peaked.
Capital is no longer concentrated solely in a single leader; the rally is spreading, with the semiconductor index up 2.3%, and valuations for AI software, cloud services, and cybersecurity sectors being re-rated simultaneously.
However, it is important to be cautious: this is not a broad-based bull market rally. While the S&P 500 closed higher, the equal-weighted S&P 500 actually fell 0.3%, clearly indicating that the rally is highly concentrated in a few large-cap tech stocks, and the overall market’s profit-making effect remains weak. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 $TRX If you only look at the price, TRX hasn't been very attractive recently. It's currently around $0.337, briefly surged to $0.351 on August 22, then fell back to about $0.34, basically fluctuating over the past week.
But if you look at the price in the context of on-chain data, the situation is different.
In Q2 this year, the USDT volume on TRON reached about $89 billion, accounting for nearly half of the entire USDT market; during the same period, the stablecoin settlement volume processed reached $2.08 trillion. The network's daily active users averaged about 3.5 million, with protocol revenue around $89 million.
More interestingly, on August 26, the total number of TRON network accounts surpassed 400 million, and recently stablecoin payments remain the main driver of network growth.
So the current logic of TRX is actually quite different from SOL and Meme coins.
Its greatest value is not "telling a new public chain story," but rather having become an important global infrastructure for stablecoin transfers.
And the market is now waiting for another catalyst: Canary Capital's Staked TRX ETF. The application is still in progress, with the latest documents showing a management fee of 1.10%, and up to 90% of the fund's assets can be staked in TRX.
If the ETF is approved in the future, TRX could potentially receive two types of capital:
On one side, the on-chain stablecoin demand; on the other, institutional funds from the traditional financial market. Wash's Speech Preview: What's More Worth Paying Attention to Than Whether There Will Be a Rate Cut in September?
Wash's speech tonight is worth watching. But I think what really needs to be heard is not just whether there will be a rate cut in September.
More importantly, will he talk about:
· The Federal Reserve's future policy framework
· The balance sheet
· The relationship between monetary policy and fiscal policy
The Core Contradiction in Policy Games
Currently, the U.S. fiscal side hopes to lower long-term financing costs, while the Federal Reserve needs to control inflation.
One wants to bring down long-term interest rates, the other needs to prevent inflation from rising again.
There is actually a very interesting policy game here.
Two Possible Scenarios for the Speech
If Wash only talks about September's policy tonight, the market may quickly digest it.
But if he starts discussing the long-term policy framework, the significance will be different.
Because the market is never just trading on a single rate cut.
What truly affects $BTC, U.S. stocks, and these risk assets is whether future liquidity will become more accommodative or continue to remain tight.
Tonight will reveal the answer.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Brothers, $BTC has surged back to 80,000 again, and my short positions are still holding! But can this iron wall at 80,000 really hold?
Today, BTC hit an intraday high of $81,478.87, with a cumulative monthly gain exceeding 28%. From the low of about $64,000 at the beginning of August, it has rebounded over 26% in just a few weeks. But 80,000 is an iron wall — touching it is one thing, standing firm is another!
The market data says it all.
The 24-hour trading volume is about $23.98 billion, with a 24-hour high-low price spread of $2,878.87. But the most critical data is here — $369 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with $225 million in short liquidations accounting for 60%. Shorts have been cleared out; how much longer can the fuel for this pump last?
Why is 80,000 the iron ceiling?
First, the $81,000–$86,000 range is a key daily supply zone. The Glassnode report clearly points out that Bitcoin’s selling pressure above is concentrated between $81,000 and $86,000. The $83,000 to $86,000 range is the first key supply zone, with chips mainly from long-term holders who haven’t sold for at least six months. After being rejected at $81,000, Bitcoin pulled back, testing whether there is enough real buying support behind this rally.
Second, the short squeeze-driven rally lacks sustainability. This round was triggered by record short liquidations — August 19 saw the largest single-day short liquidation since 2019. During the short squeeze window, short liquidations accounted for 85% of total liquidations. Forced buying can quickly push prices up, but every buy order from liquidation is closing an existing position, not creating sustained demand. Shorts are cleared out; who will take over now?
Third, funding rates are neutral but sentiment is extremely greedy. CoinGlass data shows BTC’s position and volume-weighted funding rates at 0.0070% and 0.0057%, both in neutral territory. But the Fear & Greed Index has returned to the "Extreme Greed" zone for the first time since the end of 2024. Historically, when this index stays in extreme greed for a long time, it often signals increased short-term correction risk. Long leverage is heavily stacked, and any pullback could trigger a stampede.
My short positions are still holding. If 80,000 can’t hold, the end of the frenzy will be a gloomy curtain call. Set your stop losses well — if it’s just a pullback, fine; if not, accept the loss.
Brothers, this short position is solid!
$ETH
$SOL The core of this passage is actually: Powell's statement tonight may determine whether the market will trade on "rate cut expectations" or "higher rates for longer" going forward.
Powell is usually cautious in his speeches, and the market often dissects every word. Therefore, the biggest variable now is not "whether the Fed will cut rates immediately," but rather:
Dovish: implying inflation is under control and there is room for future rate cuts → US Treasury yields may fall → pressure on the dollar and real interest rates eases → risk assets like BTC/ETH are more likely to rise.
Hawkish: emphasizing inflation risks, economic resilience, and no need to rush rate cuts → US Treasury yields may remain high → BTC faces valuation and liquidity pressure.
Particularly worth watching is the 10-year US Treasury yield. If yields continue to rise, it means returns on risk-free assets become more attractive, and risk assets will require higher risk premiums.
So what really matters tonight is not whether Powell explicitly says "rate cuts," but:
Whether Powell's wording can lead the market to lower the future interest rate path again.
If there is a "dovish Powell + falling US Treasury yields + weakening dollar," BTC is very likely to receive a relatively direct liquidity boost.
Conversely, if it is a "hawkish Powell + continued rise in US Treasury yields," then even if BTC experiences sharp short-term volatility due to options expiration, the difficulty of sustained gains will clearly increase.
Therefore, these three tags#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议
I am Cige. Iran has temporarily opened a specific route in the central part of the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. refuses to restore the June agreement and continues to apply sanctions on oil, shipping, finance, and cross-border payments to exert pressure. Iran insists on oil sales exemptions, lifting the blockade, and restoring the original agreement before fully opening the route. The temporary passage reduces the immediate risk of shipping disruption, but obstacles to oil exports and fund settlements remain unresolved.
Market judgments on crude oil, gold, and BTC depend on two things: whether the limited passage can be expanded and whether economic sanctions will cause actual supply losses before diplomatic negotiations. Iran's opening of the route is a tactical concession, while the U.S. sanctions are strategic pressure; both sides are seeking advantageous positions in a bargaining game.
Regarding BTC, the temporary opening of the route will suppress oil prices and risk sentiment in the short term, but ongoing sanctions mean the geopolitical risk premium will not fully dissipate. If the limited passage expands into a formal agreement, oil prices will continue to fall, inflation concerns will ease, and risk assets will benefit. If sanctions tighten further and Iran retaliates by blocking the strait, energy inflation may reheat, and BTC will rebalance between safe-haven demand and liquidity tightening.
The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking; savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL $XAU Central banks aggressively buying 289 tons vs whales overnight reducing positions by 81%: Gold price is staging a major battle between bulls and bears!
While Wall Street is still debating rate cuts, central banks have frantically purchased 289 tons of gold, hitting a four-year high. On the other hand, the largest on-chain bulls reduced their positions by 81.7% overnight, cashing out 4.33 million. The split between official heavy buying and speculative selling has gold prices stuck at the 4600 level, caught in a dilemma.
News insights: Besides gold purchases, what other key signals have you missed?
1. Why are central banks obsessed with buying gold? Beyond the usual "safe haven" logic, many overlook that since Q4 2023, the People's Bank of China has recorded its largest single-quarter reserve increase (33 tons) and has been increasing holdings for 20 consecutive months. This largely locks in future demand for hedging against US dollar credit risk rather than short-term profit chasing.
2. South Korea's central bank resumes gold buying after 13 years: In Q2, South Korea's central bank also joined the buying spree. This is an important geopolitical signal, marking a substantial shift in the Asia-Pacific region's allocation logic away from US dollar assets.
3. Gold ETF short covering: Many investors focus only on central banks but overlook that in July, global physical gold ETFs saw inflows of about $3 billion. This indicates that after the previous sell-off and shakeout, institutional selling pressure has basically dried up.
In Shibei's view, the whales' position reduction should not be interpreted solely as a "crash warning" but more as a tactical rotation after taking profits.
XAU Market Strategy:
Short: Light short positions can be taken on rebounds to the 4597-4604 resistance area.
Long: Gradually add long positions if it stabilizes near 4560-4565 on pullbacks.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 This passage is actually discussing a very typical IPO pricing discipline:
It's not that Anthropic is not promising, but that investors are unwilling to pay the full IPO price for "illiquid shares."
The core logic has three layers:
Lock-up period = liquidity discount
If the shares you receive cannot be sold for 6 months, then they carry a different risk compared to freely tradable shares after listing. During this period, if valuation drops or market conditions change, you cannot exit.
IPO is not inherently a "cheap price"
Many hot IPOs launch when market sentiment is already very high. The initial offering price may include a lot of growth expectations. If the hype fades after listing, causing a "price drop below the issue price → re-pricing" scenario, patient capital may actually achieve a better risk-return ratio.
"I want it, but I want to wait for a better price" is the key
"Not buying Anthropic" and "not buying Anthropic at this price" are completely different.
If Anthropic falls below the IPO price in the future and the shares become fully freely tradable, investors actually gain two improvements simultaneously: valuation decline + increased liquidity.
As for your final mention of SPCX and CBRS returning to IPO levels, they seem to illustrate the same market phenomenon:
High expectations in the primary market ultimately have to accept re-pricing by real money in the secondary market.
This also aligns well with #AIShiftsToSoftware — AI software companiesAltcoin season? Not yet
It's really not altcoin season now. $BTC rose 22% in a week, breaking above 80,000, with ETF net inflows close to 2 billion USD, but Bitcoin's dominance is still fluctuating around 59%-60%. The altcoin season index is just over 40, far from the 75 threshold. BTC is gaining, memes are just sipping broth.
But memes are definitely lively: $TRUMP up 60% weekly, PENGU up 52%, $PEPE and WIF each up 46%. On-chain activity is even crazier, Robinhood Chain has become the new main stage, CASHCAT surged to a new market cap high of 250 million, and Solana's FONE skyrocketed 700% in a single day.
Three narratives: new chains creating wealth, AI+dog (Artificial Inu up 50% daily), and the machine dog Biscotti concept.
Can it hold? Uncertain. On the 28th, CASHCAT and PONS already started to fall, and the new coin BISCOTTI nearly halved. This round is essentially a high beta follow-up to BTC's big rally; when BTC pauses, memes fall even harder. True altcoin season requires dominance to break 55%. For those wanting to jump in, quick in and out—don't get attached to the fight. At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Waller will deliver his first keynote speech since becoming Fed Chair, attracting high market attention (5.73 million+ views).
· Before the meeting, officials like Schmidt and Harker have already taken a hawkish stance: inflation unresolved, no hope for rate cuts
2. Profile
· Nominated by Trump, known as "Volcker 2.0" — famous for aggressively raising rates to fight inflation, highly independent, with deeply rooted hawkish traits
3. Current economic data (contrary to rate cut expectations)
· Core PCE remains above the 2% target, inflation is sticky;
· Initial jobless claims dropped to 203,000, labor market remains strong — Fed lacks reason to cut rates.
4. Market status (divergence between sentiment and reality)
· US stocks just surged: Nasdaq +1.57%, Nvidia soared 8.74% in one day (market cap +$442 billion), oil prices back to $90;
· Market bets on "AI saves everything + rate cuts coming soon," but Fed officials repeatedly pour cold water.
5. Potential risks
· If Waller states "policy framework undecided, high rates still needed," it will directly suppress rate cut expectations;
· Amid the stock market's high-level euphoria, hawkish remarks may trigger sharp pullbacks.
6. Personal view (for reference only)
· Based on data, officials' warming-up, and Waller's personal style, a hawkish bias is likely; but the market has fully priced this in, so "expectation gaps" could cause short-term volatility.
· Recommend closely monitoring the reactions of the dollar, gold, US bonds, and US stocks after hours, and strictly managing risk.##沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察