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BTC Price Analysis at 8:00 on August 27: $78,802 "Calm Before the Storm," Three Major Catalysts Set to Ignite the Market
As of 8:00 this morning, Bitcoin is priced at $78,802, down slightly by 0.24% over 24 hours, with an intraday trading range of $77,554 to $79,234. Yesterday during the Asian session, BTC briefly surged to $81,266, marking the highest level since mid-May, but then quickly retreated and is currently consolidating around $78,800.
The PCE data exceeding expectations was the direct trigger for yesterday’s spike and subsequent pullback. The US July PCE Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%; core PCE was 3.3% year-over-year, in line with expectations. The inflation data surpassing forecasts strengthened the Federal Reserve’s rationale for maintaining high interest rates—the market’s probability expectation for a September rate hike rose from 36% to 42%. Within hours after the data release, BTC fell from above $81,000 to below $78,000, erasing about $3,000 of gains. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index dropped 9 points to 65; although still in the “Greed” zone, market caution has clearly increased.
Technically, BTC is at a critical point of "moving average convergence." The EMA5 (78,842), EMA10 (78,804), and EMA20 (78,702) are almost perfectly overlapped—this is a textbook sign of an imminent directional decision, indicating a near-perfect balance between bulls and bears. Any breakout in either direction could trigger a trending move. RSI6 is 50.98, RSI12 is 56.35, and RSI24 is 54.87, all in neutral territory, leaving room for a breakout; KDJ values are K=56.4, D=63.7, J=41.7, with J slightly low. Multiple analysts identify $83,000 as the next key level—if BTC can hold above this, it may further test $100,000. The first support lies between $77,500 and $78,000; a break below could lead to a retest near $75,000.
On-chain data also shows the market is in a delicate balance. The SOPR, which measures the flow of profitable coins, once rose to 1.48, indicating long-term holders are taking profits at relatively higher levels. The Coinbase premium index remains negative (around -0.015), suggesting that spot buying from US investors has not yet clearly warmed up. Whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 depends critically on whether new spot demand can effectively absorb the selling pressure from profit-taking. The good news is that Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to a nearly five-month low, and funding rates remain neutral or occasionally negative, indicating this rally is driven by short covering and spot buying rather than new leveraged long positions.
Bigger catalysts are on the way. Within the next 48 hours, multiple events will converge: $6.4 billion in Bitcoin options will expire this Friday, with the maximum pain point near $78,000, meaning hedging flows could independently sway market direction; Nvidia’s earnings report has been released, with Wall Street expecting revenue around $92.3 billion—serving as a barometer for AI infrastructure spending, its performance will directly impact overall risk asset sentiment; the Jackson Hole central bank symposium will be held from August 27 to 29, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office.
Summary: BTC is consolidating with low volume near $78,802, with $78,000 as the core support line for bulls and $83,000 as the "touchstone" for trend reversal. The short-term pullback triggered by the PCE data exceeding expectations is not yet over, while the $6.4 billion options expiry and Powell’s speech will determine direction within 48 hours—if the options’ maximum pain point at $78,000 is decisively broken, it could trigger a chain liquidation; if BTC holds this level and ETF inflows continue, there remains a possibility of an assault on $83,000. Investors are advised to strictly control positions and wait for comprehensive macro signals before making trend-based decisions. 3. Trump's Crypto Chessboard: Three Pivots, One Goal
Trump's crypto policy is not a series of scattered benefits but a carefully designed game.
Pivot One: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—Hodl Only, No Sell.
On March 6, 2025, Trump signed an executive order establishing the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and the "U.S. Digital Asset Reserve." The core rule is simple: the government-held Bitcoin will no longer be sold.
But note one detail: the executive order only requires "no selling," not "buying." Sixteen months later, the structure of the strategic Bitcoin reserve is still under debate—the Treasury and Commerce Departments are competing for control. The White House digital asset advisor's promised "detailed announcement" has yet to materialize.
The slogans are loud, but implementation is still in dispute.
However, on August 19, Trump softened his stance: when asked if he would purchase additional Bitcoin, he said the matter "has already been discussed." Moving from "no selling" to "possible buying" is a qualitative leap.
Pivot Two: Regulatory Framework—From "Crackdown" to "Embrace."
The Trump administration is pushing two initiatives:
First, the CLARITY Act—to legally distinguish between "crypto securities" and "crypto commodities." The Senate is expected to start the review process in mid-September. Coinbase's CEO revealed the vote is scheduled for September 15.
Second, new SEC regulations—to exempt certain token issuances from securities law registration requirements. Legitimate ICOs might be making a comeback.
The CFTC is also active: in May, it approved the first compliant Bitcoin perpetual contract and is advancing Hyperliquid's legal entry into the U.S. market.
Pivot Three: Stablecoins—Trump's Deepest Hidden Move.
This might be the most underestimated part.
The GENIUS Act, signed by Trump a year ago, requires all USD stablecoin issuers to hold cash or short-term Treasury bonds as reserves. The more stablecoins issued, the more money is used to buy U.S. Treasuries.
Currently, the stablecoin market size is about $300 billion. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen predicts it could reach $3.7 trillion by 2030. Citibank forecasts that if it hits $4 trillion, stablecoins will absorb about a quarter of the U.S. Treasury supply.
More critical data: banks hold about 8 cents of short-term Treasuries per $1 of assets, while stablecoins invest about 80 cents per $1 in government bonds. The same amount of money, when converted from bank deposits to stablecoins, results in a tenfold increase in U.S. Treasury purchases.
Trump's real purpose in promoting crypto may not be "to pump Bitcoin"—but to "ensure there are buyers for U.S. Treasuries." $ETH $BTC $SOL The current approach in the United States is very clear — integrating Crypto into its own financial system. This direction carries more weight than just slogans.
This time, the SEC has sent the crypto custody rules to the White House for review, which is actually quite significant. The new regulations propose to clarify how investment advisors and investment companies should compliantly custody $BTC and other crypto assets, while removing some restrictions considered outdated. The official regulatory agenda even labels this as "de-regulation," with the formal proposal expected to enter the stage in October.
The biggest significance for Crypto is the reduction of institutional frictions for traditional capital entry. If institutions can more clearly resolve the issue of "who legally custodies the purchased coins," the first beneficiaries will be BTC, $ETH, as well as compliant financial platforms and custody infrastructures like Coinbase and Robinhood. Previously, when Trump pushed the CLARITY Act, Coinbase's stock price rose about 6% in a single day, and related assets like Robinhood and Strategy also strengthened simultaneously, indicating the market is indeed sensitive to regulatory clarity.
My view: This is not news that will immediately pump prices, but it could be infrastructure positive for the next round of institutional capital expansion. In the short term, BTC has already experienced a big rise, so it is not recommended to chase highs based on a regulatory announcement; in the medium term, continue to watch BTC ETF funds, the final text of custody rules, and the progress of the CLARITY Act.After BTC broke through $80,000, the real big market rally has just begun
Many people think that BTC breaking through $80,000 is the end of the bull market, but I believe this is just the beginning of capital revaluation
The biggest difference between this rally and the past is not retail investors rushing in, but continuous inflow of institutional funds. After BTC stabilizes in the key range, mainstream altcoins like ETH, SOL, SUI, and UNI start rotating, and market risk appetite clearly rises
But the more it is this moment, the easier it is to make two mistakes: first chasing the rally, second going all-in with leverage. The real winners in a bull market are never those who buy at the lowest point, but those who know how to build positions and take profits in batches
I am now focusing on three signals: whether BTC can break the previous high with volume, whether ETH can continue to drive DeFi and Layer2, and whether SUI, SOL, and UNI can take over as the main altcoin themes
My view is very clear: the bull market is not over yet, but the rhythm has changed. What matters next is not courage, but position management and patience
#BTC #ETH #SUI #UNI #SOL #欧意星球 @热门话题$BTC Funds stall, options pressure: Bitcoin rebound quality awaits verification!
Bitcoin has climbed from the August low to $79,100, which looks promising, but on-chain data reveals that funds have merely stopped fleeing and are far from rushing in. The relative change in realized market cap has just turned positive at +0.21%, the first time since the end of May. However, this positive value is historically near the bottom, ranking only in the lowest 3%-4% range, indicating at best a "stop bleeding," not "blood transfusion."
A more concrete indicator is the 30-day apparent demand, which, although surpassing newly mined coins for six consecutive days, still ranks near the lowest 10% historically in demand strength. This means the market is indeed re-accumulating chips, but very hesitantly, like a person hungry for days daring only to sip porridge but not pick up the chopsticks.
What worries people is the movement of on-chain whales. Lookonchain revealed that an Ethereum giant whale dumped a position held for nearly two years entirely into Binance, with a paper loss exceeding $10 million. Such a liquidation-style transfer likely means they really can't hold on anymore, strongly smelling like a stop-loss exit, which is not a good sign.
Not to mention, this Friday, $6.4 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire. With such a large volume, market makers must desperately adjust hedging positions before expiration, making prices easily pulled back and forth, jumping around several key strike prices.
Overall, this rebound direction exists but the confidence is clearly insufficient. The market has shifted from panic selling to "standing by and watching," but it is far from a time to charge ahead confidently. Friday's massive options expiration is a touchstone; whether the spot market can hold and whether buying follows will directly determine if this breath is a recovery or just a short gasp. In the short term, don't rush to bet. $BTC $ETH
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 From "Scam" to "Bitcoin Superpower," What’s Behind Trump’s 180-Degree Turn?
In 2019, Trump tweeted from the White House: "I'm not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies; they are not money, their value is extremely unstable, and baseless."
In August 2026, the same Trump, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, told the CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, and Gemini: "We have completely ended the war on cryptocurrencies."
Seven years, from "scam" to "Bitcoin superpower"—this is not just a personal awakening, it’s a carefully calculated strategic shift.
1. Three numbers that show how much Trump "loves" Bitcoin now
Don’t rush to be moved. Trump’s "love" comes at a price.
The first number: $905,000,000. As of July 31, 2026, Trump Media & Technology Group holds 14,139 bitcoins, worth about $905 million. Trump personally owns about 41.5% of Trump Media, with an estimated personal Bitcoin holding between 1,000 and 1,600 coins, valued at over $100 million. Forbes estimates Trump’s indirect Bitcoin holdings total about $870 million.
The second number: $1.4 billion. Income Trump has received from the family crypto business World Liberty Financial—including equity sales and token sale shares—exceeds $1.4 billion.
The third number: 328,000 coins. This is the amount of Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government, all seized through law enforcement—including Silk Road shutdown and Bitfinex hacker case recoveries. In March 2025, Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, pledging not to sell these bitcoins.
One person, simultaneously setting national crypto policy while holding nearly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin.
This is not "faith," it’s "alignment of interests." #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $ETH $BTC $SOL I've said twice that you can't short $BTC right now, but you got stuck and asked me what use that is 😂 I can only suggest cutting losses!
1. Don't think that BTC rising from 66,000 to 79,000 means it's at a high and that shorting is a sure win. Last year BTC was still at 120,000, and not many dared to short then.
2. Of course, if your stop-loss price is above 90,000, that's relatively safe and has a higher chance of success. Because I also think BTC will surge to 86,000 before dropping.
3. The net inflow of ETFs has already plummeted sharply, from 310 million down to 5.8 million. This shows the main engine driving the rally (institutional spot) has cooled off, and without new inflows, it's hard to break through resistance.
My view is still to focus on spot holdings and take profits on rallies. The short squeeze trend is still ongoing, so you can't open shorts; there's always a risk of sudden spikes causing liquidations. Yesterday, I didn't see a single decent trading opportunity, so I was just testing on a small scale. But tonight, all the news hinted that Nvidia's earnings report might be a potential trading opportunity. Personally, I'm more biased, but I didn't go long right away, because good earnings usually come out before they come out, and the decline is really bad. For example, last time with SKHYNIX, I thought the biggest news was probably Nvidia's earnings. I woke up around 5 a.m. and then checked Nvidia's earnings report on my phone. It happened to be Jensen Huang's conference call, so I saw all kinds of positive news in Jinshi's data. After glancing at the stock price, I immediately saw a big bullish candlestick. I decisively went long first and set a stop-loss at the previous low. Then I went back and carefully examined the details of the financial report. After reading it, I personally think: the logic behind NVIDIA's release and market reaction is very similar to the market reaction in the last Micron earnings report (June 25, 2026, 04:00 Beijing time): a sharp drop before the earnings →, earnings beating expectations→ post-hours surge → and continuing to rise the next day. But there is one difference: Nvidia's gross margin was slightly off by one percentage point, but unfortunately, during the conference call, Boss Huang said: "AI demand remains very strong; FY2028 may still maintain about 70% growth." After this super expectation, funds bought back in, and a big bullish candlestick emerged. Now the operationMany people see the Korean stock market rise by 2% and assume that Asian risk appetite has warmed up. However, the Korean stock market is an independent market, and its rise does not equate to a strengthening of sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market or Asia as a whole. The true risk appetite must be judged by the actual market performance after the Hong Kong stock market opens.
2) Alibaba released the Qwen3.8-Flash model, which represents progress in AI technology but does not involve revenue or market application implementation, so its impact on Hong Kong stock valuations is limited. The rise in the Korean stock market is a localized phenomenon, and its correlation with the Hong Kong stock market remains to be verified. The SFC report emphasizes smooth connectivity between the Mainland and Hong Kong, which is a long-term structural positive rather than a short-term sentiment driver.
The bullish side: Southbound capital inflows show that Mainland investors' confidence in the Hong Kong stock market remains intact, and core stocks like Tencent and Meituan continue to attract attention, possibly reflecting a rebalancing of funds among Asian assets.
The bearish side: The Hang Seng Tech Index fell slightly, combined with no fundamental events supporting it, indicating that the market still has doubts about the short-term prospects of tech stocks and sentiment has not clearly warmed.
Continue to monitor the flow of southbound funds and changes in trading volume of Hong Kong tech stocks. Only if there is a clear improvement in earnings or policy implementation later could risk appetite potentially rise.
This is for informational and market scenario analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
Latest Data
Core PCE year-on-year is 3.3%, the same as last month, indicating inflation stickiness has not disappeared. $BTC 80583, ETH 2500, SOL $101, funds are all waiting and watching for the annual meeting speech, with increased market volatility.
Market Consensus
The data is neither hot nor cold, giving Powell enough room. Everyone is just waiting for a clear statement: how long will high interest rates be sustained, and when will rate cuts be considered.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Simply put, inflation has not worsened but also hasn't dropped quickly. If the speech is too hawkish, saying inflation is unstable and rates won't be cut, the crypto market may come under pressure; if the speech is more moderate, hinting at possible future rate cuts, risk assets are likely to rebound. Most likely, no clear timetable will be given, preferring to keep options open.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, just personal opinion, not investment advice)
Don't bet on direction prematurely; there will be more volatility during the annual meeting. Hold your current positions, minimize trading, and wait for the speech to land before making plans. 90-Day Profitability Ranking Reference｜08:30 · 08/27/26 Closing Overview - Nasdaq Composite Index: -0.08%, at 26130.20 - S&P 500: -0.02%, at 7675.70 - Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.21%, at 53463.88 Market Review U.S. stocks overnight remained in a narrow range with both bulls and bears highly cautious. July PCE inflation data was released; core PCE met market expectations, but overall inflation still showed strong stickiness, leading the market to slightly raise the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stayed elevated, directly suppressing growth stock valuations. Market funds were generally cautious, with all eyes on the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting chairman's speech. Before this key speech, institutions were reluctant to make large bets on a single direction, resulting in reduced trading volume. Sector divergence further widened: the industrial sector showed relative resilience; healthcare and some tech stocks weakened. Within the memory chip sector, divergence intensified as previously accumulated profits were continuously realized, causing significant intraday volatility. The AI theme experienced internal splits, with some overvalued stocks seeing profit-taking, while computing hardware stocks continued to receive capital support. Major Assets - U.S. Treasuries: 10-year yield at 4.649%, long-term yields fluctuated at high levels, with rate expectations repeatedly disturbing global risk asset sentiment. - Commodities: Oil prices sharply declined amid rising expectations of easing geopolitical conflicts; gold slightlyThe number of $FIL short positions is about one-third more than the number of long positions again. From my understanding, most of these short positions should belong to miners, because if the price goes up, they can sell the spot they hold, and if it goes down, their short positions also profit, so it's a no-lose situation for them. Therefore, my advice is to stay away from this junk coin that unlocks 365,000 daily. What can you compare with the miners? When the price rises, miners sell their holdings; when it falls, their short positions profit. It's a no-lose trade.#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
PCE data is out, core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, unchanged from last month, with expectations also at 3.3%, no surprises or shocks.
Overall PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, slightly higher than the expected 3.6%. In summary: inflation is stuck and not coming down, remaining above the Fed's 2% target for 65 consecutive months.
Once the data was released, market expectations for a September rate hike rose from 36% to about 40%, and Bitcoin dropped directly from above 80,000 to below 78,000.
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The real highlight is Wash's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
The current situation is quite awkward:
· Bessent expanded long-term bond repos last week, trying to suppress long-end yields, but US Treasury yields barely moved, instead sparking a "currency devaluation trade" in gold and Bitcoin
· Since Wash took office in May, he has hardly given clear guidance; his last post-FOMC speech triggered a sharp sell-off in the bond market
· The 30-year Treasury yield at 5% is a critical threshold; if it can't hold, bigger problems will arise
What the market most wants to know now is: facing stubborn inflation and worsening fiscal conditions, what is the Fed's real stance?
If Wash signals dovishness—confirming the current rate level is appropriate and that Bitcoin's structural support under a weak dollar will continue—Bitcoin could surge to 82,000-90,000.
If he emphasizes inflation risks driven by oil prices (Brent has already broken $90) or defends the need for further tightening to meet the 2% inflation target, this rally could reverse immediately.
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Honestly, this Bitcoin rally from 64,000 to 81,000, a 17,000-point gain, has already priced in a lot of good news. A 23% increase, the best August performance since 2017. But much of this gain was driven by short squeeze liquidations, not genuine long-term capital inflows.
At this level, there is room to go up, but also significant downside risk. If Wash is ambiguous or leans hawkish, profit-taking could trigger a severe sell-off.
$BTC $UNITREE token is trading at a 2% premium over the underlying stock. How are these gamblers so sure it will open 2% higher? Of course, the stock's rescue funds can place fake orders; if not executed between 9:15 and 9:20, the orders can be withdrawn. Crypto retail investors really believe in fake orders, and those who chase them always lose.Core focus: BTC $80,000 battle | ETH/SOL capital spread | Jackson Hole | ZEC ETF cash-out | AAVE/PENDLE movements | AI rally after NVDA earnings Core analysis: • After BTC surged above $80,000, it did not immediately form a valid breakout; the market is shifting from a "trend up" to "high-level turnover." BTC hit a high of $81,000 in the past week, then pulled back to around $78,000–79,000, completing a rapid rally of over 20% in a short period. More importantly, this rally is no longer just short covering: from August 17 to 21, US spot BTC ETFs recorded a cumulative net inflow of about $1.92 billion, and August 24 continued with about $338 million in net inflows, indicating spot funds are indeed taking the lead. Meanwhile, during BTC's pullback, futures OI actually dropped below 700,000 BTC, which is a structure of price pullback and simultaneous leverage contraction, rather than a massive new short squeeze. Therefore, it cannot be simply defined as a failure to break through $80,000 at present. A more reasonable judgment is that BTC is testing whether there is enough new spot buying above $80,000. • The biggest macro variable has shifted from PCE to Jackson Hole. Today, the market is truly waiting for Warsh's comments on inflation, interest rates, and the Treasury market. In July, PCE was still clearly above the Fed's 2% target, with overall PCE at about 3.7% and core PCE at about 3.3%, indicatingGood mindset — Morning news broadcast 🐮
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
Currently, the selling pressure in the storage sector has begun to spread outward, coupled with the Bank of Korea's decision to raise interest rates and tighten market liquidity. South Korea has always been an important source of funds for altcoins, which directly leads to a cooling of overall risk appetite.
$BTC is currently priced at $76,050, with resistance at $78,300 and key support at $73,000. Pay special attention to market fluctuations during the Asian trading session.
$ETH is currently at $2,408, with resistance at $2,470 and support at $2,340. Compared to the mainstream large caps, small coins and meme coins will face significantly greater correction pressure.
Going forward, focus closely on the kimchi premium and the flow of Korean won funds. Be sure to control your actions with all high-risk coins and avoid blind operations.
The above is just a personal market observation record and does not constitute investment advice. That's all for now, everyone reflect carefully.The Crown Prince's mindset is great—🐮🐮 8.27
$BTC ｜ Approaching the 80,000 mark, long-term holders are already showing distribution signals
This rebound of Bitcoin approaching $80,000 is not just a short-term sentiment recovery; the behavior pattern of long-term holders (LTH) who have held for over a year has shown a very critical shift this year.
Several notable changes can be seen in the data:
- Previously, the supply held by LTH steadily increased for over half a year, but now it has turned to a net decrease for the first time;
- In early June, LTH monthly net increased by 286,000 BTC, but the latest data has reversed to a net decrease of 21,000 BTC;
- The newly added chips becoming long-term holdings can no longer offset the amount transferred out by old holders.
Corroborating this, as the price nears $80,000, the volume of coins transferred by LTH to exchanges has hit a new high for 2026.
Among them, the sub-long-term holding group of 6-18 months is the most active, with just this segment transferring over 297,000 BTC to exchanges.
The underlying logic is clear: the price rebound has reached the cost and break-even range of a large amount of old chips; some addresses holding coins for over a year are treating this rally as an exit window, and selling pressure from long-term holders is being released.
On the demand side, there is indeed some improvement compared to before, with ETF funds flowing back and spot market support. But on the supply side, the outflow of old coins is accelerating, making it easy for the market to enter a rebalancing phase dominated by selling pressure.
In summary:
As BTC challenges the 80,000 mark, long-term holders’ positions have net decreased for the first time this year, and chips transferred to exchanges have hit a yearly high, showing a significant increase in old money’s willingness to cash out. Whether the subsequent market can hold steady depends not on the brief spike above 80,000, but on whether the market can absorb this selling pressure from old chips.
⚠️This is only an on-chain data review and does not constitute investment advice #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Tonight, the US core PCE is up 3.3% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, unchanged from last month and in line with expectations, but the market has interpreted this as "inflation stickiness"—the probability of a rate hike in September has risen from 37% to 42%, and BTC briefly dropped below 78000 in response.
The Jackson Hole annual meeting is approaching. Since Waller took over as Fed Chair, he has not provided a clear path, and there is significant internal disagreement on whether to raise rates or hold steady. This "non-committal" stance itself is a source of volatility. This Friday, Deribit has about $6.4 billion in BTC options expiring, with call options concentrated at 75K strike price (nominally about 236 million), making it one of the largest open interest clusters.
Market makers' gamma hedging will pull the price toward the concentrated strike price, so the 75K level is prone to a spike down and then a rebound. In the short term, avoid chasing breakouts between 78K–80K; the 75K support level must be well defended. Reducing positions before breaking 78K is more comfortable than cutting losses afterward. Before the macro tone is set, position size is more important than direction.
US core PCE unchanged from last month, how will Waller's Jackson Hole speech set the tone? BTC ZEC $ETH I don't think OKX DEX's adjustment of stock token fees this time is big news, but it's worth discussing. Because it reminds us of one thing: on-chain stock tokens have passed the "free trial first" phase. Going forward, users should look not at whether there are gimmicks, but on whether the trading path, depth, fees, and risks are clearly calculated. The official announcement is very direct: starting August 26, 2026, 14:30 (UTC+8), OKX DEX will adjust the interface fees for all stock tokens. On X Layer, when trading stock tokens with any token, the interface fee is 0.01%; Other on-chain stock tokens follow Group 2 standard rates. At the same time, the "limited-time free stock token trading" event has ended. On the surface, this is a shift from free to fee-free, but I care more about the product signals behind it. The free period is usually a cold start tool, first encouraging users to click, trade, and try paths. Once the rules return to normal fees, it shows the platform prefers to treat these assets as long-term tradable items rather than short-term activity gateways. 0.01% is not a big deal, but longtime users know DEX costs are never just about interface fees. When you actually make a transaction, you also look at quote routing, slippage, on-chain gas, cross-chain costs, pool depth, and whether the price is eaten up during rapid market fluctuations. Especially for assets like stock tokens, their underlying logic differs from ordinary memes or mainstream coins: price anchoring, trading hours, liquidity sources, and regional availabilityInflation remains steady, rate cut expectations dampened again, gold and crypto markets under short-term pressure
The US July PCE data was fully released in the evening, overall signaling a hawkish tone. Core PCE year-on-year remained flat at 3.3%, month-on-month rose 0.2%, both meeting expectations, but the key lies in this "standstill"—inflation did not continue to decline as the market had hoped. Meanwhile, personal consumption expenditures and durable goods orders both exceeded expectations, indicating that the US economy's internal momentum remains strong.
In short, this combination of data sends a very clear signal: economic resilience persists, and inflation stickiness is stubborn. The market's previous expectations for a rapid shift into a rate-cutting cycle have been cooled by reality. After the data release, the market's probability expectation for a Fed rate hike in September rose slightly from about 36% to 42%, and short-term interest rate pressure is unlikely to ease for now.
For gold, there is a lack of direct macro catalysts to break historical highs in the short term. Physical assets are likely to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern under the pressure of interest rate expectations, and blindly chasing longs carries risks. For crypto assets like BTC and ETH, the "tailwind" of rate cut expectations also failed to appear; the lack of major positive drivers means the market is unlikely to experience a one-sided breakout, and short-term is likely to continue a volatile consolidation pattern.
Currently, market focus has shifted to the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting, with Fed Chair Powell's speech being particularly critical. The market generally expects Powell to reiterate inflation risks and keep the option of rate hikes open to rebuild policy credibility, but it is unlikely he will provide clear guidance on the specific interest rate path.$ETH ETH stands above $2,500 — this time it's different.
After 86 days, Ethereum has finally climbed back above $2,500, rising nearly 3% in 24 hours. But this time it's not just a simple Bitcoin Beta rally; ETH/BTC has clearly outperformed for the first time in three months.
🔥 Three driving forces behind the breakout:
· ETF capital return: US spot ETH ETF net inflow of $420 million within five days, reversing seven consecutive weeks of outflows, led by BlackRock
· On-chain gas fees surge: Mainnet daily fees rose from $2.1 million in April to $8.2 million, burn rate tripled, ETH returns to deflationary status
· Locked volume soars: 6.2 million ETH locked in restaking protocols, L2 TVL increased 21% monthly to $38.4 billion
📊 Key levels: $2,380 must hold; breaking $2,720 opens upward space. There is heavy whale selling pressure between $2,550-$2,650, so short-term consolidation is possible.
The fundamental turning point has arrived, but be cautious chasing the highs.
⚠️ NFA. DYOR.Closing Overview • Nasdaq Composite Index: -0.08%, at 26,130.20 • S&P 500: -0.02%, at 7,675.70 • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.21%, at 53,463.88 Market Review Overnight, overall narrow fluctuations, with bulls and bears highly cautious. July PCE inflation data was released, core PCE met expectations, but overall inflation remained sticky, slightly raising the probability of a Fed rate hike in September, long-term US Treasury yields remained high, suppressing valuations of long-term stocks. Funds were clearly waiting, waiting for a major core event: the Jackson Hole Central Bank annual meeting chairman's speech, with the market hesitant to bet heavily on the direction. Sector differentiation was clear, with the industrial sector relatively resilient; Healthcare and some tech stocks weakened. The memory chip sector is internally fragmented, with previous profit-taking continued to be realized and sector volatility amplified. Major Assets • US Treasuries: The 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.649%, fluctuating at high long-term levels, with interest rate expectations repeatedly disturbing market sentiment. • Commodities: Oil prices have dropped sharply, cooling expectations of geopolitical conflicts; Gold closed slightly lower, suppressed by the US dollar and US Treasury yields. • VIX Fear Index rose slightly, with marginal risk aversion intensifying. Outlook: In the short term, the market is completely dominated by Jackson Hole's speech. 1. Jackson Hole's speech focuses on the Federal Reserve's statements on inflation and interest rate path; a hawkish stance pushes US Treasury yields higher, weighing on US stock valuations. 2. The storage sector remains in a phase of profit-taking at high levels, following AI market fluctuations and warning of high volatility risks. Risk warning: NVIDIA's earnings report far exceeded expectations! NVIDIA delivered $96.2 billion in revenue for Q2, significantly surpassing the market expectation of $92.2 billion. Data center business reached $89 billion, soaring 117% year-over-year. Gross margin remained steady at 75%. Q3 revenue guidance is $108 billion, also exceeding market consensus. Management even dropped a bombshell prediction that overall revenue can maintain 70% growth through fiscal year 2028. The new Vera Rubin architecture has already entered full production. The only bottleneck in demand is supply chain capacity, not a decline in downstream customer purchasing willingness. However, one point to note: Q3 gross margin guidance was lowered to 74%. Management candidly admitted that rising prices of HBM memory chips are gradually squeezing profit margins. Gross margin will face pressure for the next several quarters and will only rebound in fiscal year 2028. This earnings report clearly drives differentiation in the memory sector. HBM track leaders SK Hynix and Micron directly received positive catalysts. The new generation Rubin platform is officially in mass production. The shipment cycle for computing power servers has already started. Even if there is slight adjustment in HBM capacity per GPU, large-scale volume growth of entire machines can still support long-term HBM procurement demand. In after-hours trading, the ADRs of the two HBM leaders surged simultaneously. The market has begun to reconfirm the strong demand logic for HBM. However, consumer memory stocks showed weaker gains. Western Digital and Seagate mainly operate in regular flash memory and mechanical hard drives. NVIDIA's computing power expansion has limited business correlation with them. Their stock prices mostly only slightly rose following sector sentiment. Just a reminder, don't let Nvidia's good news overshadow a tougher reality: US July PCE inflation at 3.7%, higher than expected, and expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have actually increased; inflation in Australia also exceeded expectations, and institutions have already started betting on a September rate hike. Global central banks are still in a rate-hiking cycle, which is a completely different story from the "liquidity bull" narrative often shouted in the crypto space. So even if the earnings report is positive, I won't fully load up my position on this rebound—both positive and negative factors are on the table, and the responsible play is to keep some bullets, not go all in. Jackson Hole is still looming this week, no need to rush. $BTC, are you planning to add to your position or hold cash for now? I know everyone is currently focused on $NVDA's earnings…… But did you know Landmark signed a 4-year CW agreement with a U.S. customer to ensure "adequate supply"? So now you have: - $LITE (capacity fully booked) - $COHR (capacity fully booked) - Landmark (committed capacity) - $AAOI (transceiver capacity) - $MTSI (not online) - $SMTC (limited) I remember earlier this year I said continuous wave lasers would be the next optical revolution but would be severely bottlenecked by Nvidia? It's reallyTom Lee is not an ordinary KOL; he started as the chief equity strategist at JPMorgan and has been a veteran voice on Wall Street for over 30 years.
Fundstrat's long-term framework is straightforward: BTC is expected to reach 200,000–250,000, with ETFs and sovereign funds stretching the four-year halving cycle into a slow institutional bull market; in the short term, however, he warns of a 60,000–65,000 pullback and about 30% volatility, which is not just wishful thinking. On the ETH side, his narrative is that AI agents plus asset tokenization will boost the value of the L1 settlement layer, expecting the ETH/BTC ratio to rise in this cycle, with long-term targets previously exceeding 10,000.
The execution side is even more solid: BitMine launched the "Alchemy 5%" plan in June 2025, and by August 2026 it holds about 5,847,600 ETH, accounting for 4.8% of circulation, with around 87% staked, generating annual rewards of approximately $330 million. The yield is reinvested to buy more, forming a closed loop of buying—staking—earning interest—increasing positions.
But one must see through one layer: Lee himself, Fundstrat, and BMNR all heavily hold ETH, so their bullish calls align with their balance sheets. His macro framework can be referenced, and price targets should be viewed as scenario assumptions, not as fully trusted neutral research reports.After the earnings report, crypto generally rebounded, but the structure is more worth watching than the rise and fall: $SOL led the gains with over 5% in one day, $ETH followed, while $BTC only rose slightly. The mainstream remains steady, and the secondary leaders run first. This is a typical sector rotation when risk appetite returns — the money hasn't left, it's moving to areas with higher elasticity. But a reminder: BTC hasn't truly broken above the previous high yet; this wave feels more like emotional repair after the boot dropped, not a confirmed breakout. The biggest risk in a rotation market is chasing the strongest one and ending up buying at the emotional peak. Are you chasing SOL these days, or holding your position?Once the PCE data came out at 3.7%, which is higher than the expected 3.6%. Although the difference is only 0.1%, inflation stickiness is basically undeniable. Expectations for rate cuts will have to be pushed back again, and high interest rates will likely persist for a while longer. This kind of environment is not friendly to risk assets like BTC and U.S. stocks, as investors' risk appetite will be suppressed.
On the chart, $BTC is still grinding within the 4-hour consolidation zone of 75550-79500. This range is quite tricky: there is no volume to break through 79500 upwards, and 75550 has not been substantially broken downwards either. Those waiting for the "third buy" should not get ahead of themselves; we must see a volume-backed close above 79500, and the pullback must hold above 78560 for the bullish structure to be considered established. Conversely, if repeated attempts fail to break higher, the probability of a volatile pullback increases. Once 75550 is effectively breached, the bearish third sell signal should be closely monitored.
$ETH is weaker, fluctuating between 2356-2533, with the 1-hour level consistently suppressed by 2471, showing no clear direction. $SOL showed a clear bearish divergence after the rally; 96.2 is the short-term lifeline. If it breaks, don’t be tempted to catch the falling knife—that’s catching a knife, not bottom fishing.
On-chain data already shows short-term whales transferring chips to exchanges, with signs of pumping and dumping. Market sentiment is still stuck in the greed zone, and the biggest risk at this time is FOMO-driven overexcitement.
After the data release, the market won’t get easier; it will only become more grinding. If you don’t understand, stay out of the market. Protecting your principal is far more important than betting on a single direction. Gold price fell more than 1% in a single day! PCE inflation overheating triggers a pullback—Is gold undergoing a short-term correction or has the trend topped out?
Many have noticed that gold, which had been rallying strongly, suddenly experienced a significant drop on Wednesday, falling over 1% in one day. This has caused concern among many, wondering if this bull run is now over.
Today, we will comprehensively analyze the logic behind this gold price pullback, the short-term risks, and the key points to watch going forward.
On Wednesday, spot gold hit resistance after a rally and pulled back, dipping to around $4583 at its lowest and closing near $4595. On Thursday morning in the Asian session, gold prices rebounded and are currently trading around $4620. This round of decline was not without warning; the core trigger was the release of the U.S. July PCE inflation data in the evening.
This inflation indicator, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors, showed a neutral to slightly hot performance. Both year-over-year and month-over-month figures slightly exceeded market expectations, indicating inflation did not cool as anticipated. After the data release, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September increased, with the probability rising from 36% to 40%.
It is well understood that gold itself does not generate interest income. Once the market raises rate hike expectations and the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, gold prices face direct pressure. The U.S. dollar index also rose simultaneously, creating double pressure that led to profit-taking and a pullback in gold prices.
However, it is important to rationally distinguish that a short-term pullback does not equal a direct reversal of the major trend. Many market analysts have pointed out that signs of profit-taking appeared even before the PCE data release. This decline is more of a technical correction following a strong rally, rather than a fundamental shift to a bearish trend.
Looking at other U.S. economic data released alongside, Q2 GDP remained stable, with upward revisions in consumer spending and corporate profits, showing strong economic resilience. The stickiness of inflation combined with economic resilience will likely increase internal Fed disagreements on whether to raise rates.
All eyes in the market will now focus on Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Powell is set to speak.
Since taking office, he has maintained a communication style of speaking less and observing more, rarely providing clear rate guidance in advance. This approach has recently intensified volatility in the Treasury market. The market is eagerly awaiting whether this speech will deliver relatively clear policy signals. Institutions are divided: some believe he likely won’t change the current communication framework, risking market disappointment; others hope to glean the Fed’s stance on inflation and future rate paths from his remarks.
In the medium to long term, the fundamental logic supporting gold’s rise remains intact.
Negotiations related to the Strait of Hormuz have not yet concluded, and navigation risks remain unresolved, sustaining geopolitical risk premiums that support gold prices. Coupled with ongoing central bank gold purchases and the large scale of U.S. debt, many institutions remain optimistic about gold’s outlook, predicting it still has a chance to challenge the $5000 level within the year.
Considering all market information, gold is currently in a consolidation phase after a strong rally. In the short term, it will be influenced by the dollar, rate hike expectations, and Fed speech sentiment, leading to amplified volatility; but the medium to long-term bullish fundamentals remain.
Key points to watch next: the tone of the Jackson Hole Chair’s speech, subsequent inflation and employment data, and the latest developments in Middle East geopolitical tensions. If the speech signals a hawkish stance, gold prices may continue to face pressure and volatility in the short term; if geopolitical risks rise again or rate hike expectations ease, gold still has the potential to surge to new highs.
This pullback can be seen as an observation window. Do not immediately conclude the bull market is over just because of a decline. In trading, be sure to manage positions carefully and patiently wait for key events to unfold.
Risk reminder: The above is personal opinion for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment involves risks; please proceed with caution.This $NVDA earnings report is worth breaking down: revenue easily exceeded expectations, Q3 guidance was raised, and Jensen Huang even threw out a "70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028" outlook, with after-hours trading rising nearly 5% at one point. But the real signal isn't about beating expectations — one analysis hit the nail on the head: Nvidia's challenge now is no longer just delivering good results, but outperforming the "excellent" level that the market expects; beating expectations is almost just a ticket to the game. Translated, this means: the pricing threshold for the AI narrative keeps getting higher. This is the same for crypto transmission; don't treat this rebound as the starting gun for a reversal, first see if it can hold. Do you think this earnings report means accelerate or brake?Altcoins surge, but don't rush to chase
The essence of this round of altcoin rally is: after Bitcoin broke through $80,000, funds gradually overflowed along the chain of "mainstream coins → DeFi → Meme → small and mid-cap". Combined with multiple catalysts such as Trump's policy signals, new SEC regulations, ETF fund inflows, and the amplification effect of short squeezes, these factors jointly drove this retaliatory rebound. However, the era of "everything you buy goes up" may be over. In the future, funds will be more inclined to flow into assets with real income, strong narratives, and clear catalysts. $BICO $ONT $BTC ｜ Approaching the 80,000 mark, old money is starting to move
The recent rebound of Bitcoin towards 80,000 is not just a short-term sentiment recovery; on-chain behavior of long-term holders (LTH, holding coins ≥1 year) has also shown a turning point this year:
• In the first few months of this year, LTH supply steadily increased, but now it has turned into a net decrease for the first time
• In early June, LTH monthly average was still a net increase of +286,000 BTC, but recently it has flipped to a net decrease of -21,000 BTC
• In other words, the new coins "maturing into LTH" can no longer cover the coins old LTH are moving out
• Concurrent signal: The volume of LTH transferring coins to exchanges hit a new high for 2026 as BTC neared $80,000
• The most active are the "secondary new LTH" aged 6–18 months, who alone transferred over 297,000 BTC to exchanges
The logic is straightforward: when the price rebounds near the cost line/break-even zone, some wallets holding for over a year treat "long-term holding" as a trigger to exit, releasing selling pressure from the LTH side.
Although demand is better than before (ETF inflows, spot support ongoing), the supply side sees accelerated LTH outflows, which easily pushes the market back to a rebalancing where "sellers slightly dominate."
In summary
BTC touches 80,000 → LTH holdings see first net decrease this year + exchange inflows hit 2026 record → old money’s willingness to distribute rises; whether it can stabilize afterward does not depend on the 80,000 spikeKey US economic data was released overnight, overall signaling tightening!
Core PCE year-over-year remained steady at 3.3%, month-over-month rose 0.2% as expected, but overall PCE year-over-year at 3.7% and month-over-month at 0.2% both exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, July durable goods orders surged 1.1% month-over-month, far surpassing the expected 0.5%.
In short, consumer resilience remains, inflation is not easing at all, and the market's previous hopes for rate cuts have been dashed.
For gold, the data is bearish, making it difficult to sustain a smooth one-sided rally in the short term; it will likely continue to face pressure and fluctuate, so blindly chasing longs at this level carries significant risk.
For $BTC and $ETH, there is a lack of new positive catalysts; the delay in rate cut expectations means liquidity easing won't come quickly, making it hard for the market to break out directly, and it will likely remain in a choppy consolidation phase.
#US Core PCE steady from last month, how will the Jackson Hole speech set the tone?# Currently, the market generally expects that at the annual meeting, the Fed will not give a clear signal on rate direction, may reiterate inflation risks, and keep the option to raise rates open. The key is whether they can maintain an anti-inflation stance while demonstrating sufficient policy flexibility.$xNVDA $NVDA Nvidia's financial report has a staggering figure: quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, with data center revenue reaching $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. More importantly, the company's revenue guidance for next quarter is directly set at $108 billion±2%, higher than the market's previous expectation of about $104.2 billion. AI demand hasn't cooled significantly, at least from the orders and revenue side, so the previously feared "CapEx peak" hasn't happened yet. But if you only see "NVDA performance is good, so keep buying NVDA," I think this report misses a more interesting message: AI servers are getting more expensive. Nvidia itself has already begun warning about the pressure on gross margins caused by memory costs. Meanwhile, tech giants like Microsoft and Meta are expected to invest over $730 billion this year in building AI infrastructure. In other words, the more GPUs are shipped, the more memory, network, power, cooling, and data center infrastructure will be needed later. This is also why I am focusing more on industry chain expansion than just chasing GPUs. As Rubin continues to scale, demand for high-bandwidth memory will rise; GPU clusters will expand in scale, and the value of switches and high-speed interconnects will also rise; Beyond that, cabinet power consumption, grid access, and data center construction will follow. NVIDIA and AWS have even planned to deploy an additional 2 million GPUs between 2027 and 2028. If this plan is truly implemented,Ethereum surged 30% in one week—who is orchestrating this "perfect storm"?
The battlefield in August is littered with the corpses of shorts.
From August 19 to 25, Ethereum skyrocketed from a bottom of $1870 to above $2450. A seven-day increase of 29.3%—surpassing Bitcoin's 21.4%. The ETH/BTC rate soared from 0.02994 to 0.0318. Market cap returned to $284.3 billion, surpassing Dell.
This is not an ordinary rebound; this is a "perfect storm"—macro liquidity, regulatory shifts, short squeezes, and institutional buying, four forces converging simultaneously.
1. The fuse: A Treasury announcement ignited the entire market
It all started on August 19. The U.S. Treasury announced doubling the long-term bond repurchase scale from $2 billion each time to $4 billion.
In plain terms: money printing.
Long-term yields plummeted in response, and the dollar index dropped about 0.8%. Funds flowed out of risk-free government bonds and rushed into all assets that could generate returns—stocks, gold, and of course, cryptocurrencies. The head of rate strategy at TD Securities bluntly stated this was just "the first of many actions supporting the long end of the bond market."
Grand narratives often begin with the simplest money flows.
Immediately after, regulators fired three shots. On August 18, the SEC proposed a new "crypto asset regulation" framework, aiming to exempt crypto investment contracts from securities law registration requirements. The SEC and CFTC jointly classified 16 digital assets, including Ethereum, as "commodities." Trump convened crypto giants like Coinbase, Ripple, and Gemini at the White House, publicly pressuring Congress to pass the CLARITY Act.
Regulation shifted from "crackdown" to "embrace"—this signal is more important than any candlestick.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 $ETH $BTC $ZEC Ethereum's decline is affected by inflation
The recent pullback spike was only 1.1%, but within an hour, $2 million worth of short positions were liquidated,
Haoge believes that the cooling expectations of interest rate cuts will weaken market risk appetite, and short-term funds may choose to wait and see, causing ETH to face some pullback pressure.
At the same time, rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar will also suppress the overall crypto market.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, Ethereum's own fundamentals still provide support, so this adjustment is more of a macro sentiment disturbance rather than a complete trend reversal. $ETH $SOL $BTC Last night, a series of US economic data were released, showing overall resilience beyond market expectations. Core PCE inflation remained flat compared to last month, showing no further cooling, while personal consumption expenditures and durable goods orders both exceeded expectations. Putting these three figures together sends a very consistent message: the foundation of the US economy remains solid, while the process of falling inflation seems to have temporarily stalled. For the financial markets, the most direct impact of this combination is to pour cold water on those betting on the Fed cutting rates sharply soon. Previously, the market was optimistic about the easing pace, but now that the data no longer supports it, expectations naturally have to be pushed back. Changes in interest rate expectations often immediately affect the pricing logic of risk assets and precious metals. For gold specifically, in the short term, this is not a friendly signal. If inflation does not fall and the economy remains weak, real interest rates may remain high, making holding gold more expensive. The window of rapid one-sided rise has temporarily closed, and it is more likely that gold will repeatedly fluctuate within the high range, even bearing some pressure. At this point, buying at high prices is indeed not cost-effective, and more patience is needed for clearer catalysts. Back to the crypto market, BTC and ETH have also not received substantial good news. The delay in rate cut expectations means the timing of liquidity easing is being pushed back, making it difficult for the market to explode in the short term. However, from another perspective, this does not mean the trend has been broken; a more reasonable judgment is to continue the consolidation pattern, with prices searching for directions within the rangeBitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin is currently around 79,000, which is relatively on the higher side of the middle range. You can wait for it to reach 80,000 before considering shorting, with a stop loss set at 83,000. If it hits this line, you must stop loss and exit.
From the news and market sentiment perspective, the trigger for this rebound was the largest single-day short liquidation in history on August 20, when the short-to-long close ratio reached about 8.6:1, and Bitcoin surged over 8% in a single day.
However, according to Glassnode data, the open interest in cryptocurrency margin futures has dropped to a historical low of about 52,000 BTC, indicating that this rally mainly comes from shorts retreating rather than bulls aggressively leveraging up to chase prices, making the structure relatively healthy.
Additionally, Citibank recently lowered Bitcoin's 12-month target price from $112,000 to $82,000, reflecting institutional caution about the sustainability of this rebound. Everyone is focused on SOL's price increase but hasn't noticed that staking rewards might be cut first.
Solana is advancing two governance proposals, SIMD-550 and SIMD-553, focusing on two main points: faster reduction of SOL issuance and increased burning intensity. If passed, staking rewards could significantly decline within two to three years, and the terminal inflation rate of 1.5% could be reached earlier, by the first half of 2029.
This is moderately bullish in the mid to long term but with mixed views—lower issuance combined with higher burning eases supply pressure, supporting the narrative of "greater scarcity"; the cost is reduced staking rewards, which also squeezes profits for smaller validators.
In the short term, don't just chase the upside based on good news; focus on governance voting, validator feedback, and whether SOL spot funds continue to take over.
Source: Wu Shuo
#SOL #Crypto100W Nvidia plunged then surged 4% again, while Bitcoin is stuck at 78,000: Is the money for AI computing power still flowing to crypto? On August 27, 2026, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly down, with the Dow down 0.21%, the Nasdaq down 0.08%, and the S&P 500 down 0.02%. Nvidia fell 1.59% before its earnings report, but after reporting revenue of $96.2 billion and EPS of $2.22, both exceeding expectations, its stock price first dropped then rose over 4%, also driving a big after-hours rally in the storage and optical communication sectors. 【Veteran's rambling】 The drama of that night was much more exciting than the small dip at the close. Nvidia fell 1.59% pre-market as the market held its breath for the earnings report. The report came in—Q2 FY2027 revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year; adjusted EPS of $2.22, up 120% year-over-year; data center revenue of $89 billion, with Q3 guidance at $108 billion. The numbers are explosive, right? But after-hours, the stock first plunged 3%, then rallied over 4%. Is that strange? Not at all. The market had already priced in a 96% probability of an earnings beat; beating expectations became the baseline, and anything less than the most optimistic $110 billion was considered a miss. Even harsher was the gross margin guidance dropping from 75% to 74%, officially confirming the "75% is the peak of this cycle" narrative. This is the key point. The AI narrative hasn't collapsed, but the "valuation tolerance" for AI narratives is shrinking. Back to crypto. What is Bitcoin doing at this time? It broke through $81,000 intraday to hit a three-month high, ultimately closing up 0The 79,200 wall, $BTC hit it twice, bloodied and battered
Pulled from 77,615 to 79,244 in the early morning, now dropped back to 78,697, with gains down to only 0.87%
Two upper shadows on the 15-minute chart hang at 79,200, strongly signaling a short-term double top. MA5 and MA10 have already formed a death cross downward, price is suppressed below, bears are starting to take over
Below, MA20 (78,570), MA30 (78,453), and MA60 (78,442) lines converge near 78,450, this is the bulls' last stronghold
If broken, it will retest 77,600; if not broken, it can surge once more
3.53 billion USDT volume, volume expansion without price increase is not a good sign
The only strategy: exit if 78,450 breaks, if not, wait for a rebound MARKET MORNING｜真正值得关注的，不是BTC涨了多少 BTC冲上8万美元后，市场开始降温。但这次回调，未必意味着资金正在撤退。 👀 📌 事实：BTC目前仍在7.9万美元附近震荡。过去7天上涨约23%，短线获利了结明显。与此同时，美国现货BTC ETF连续录得资金流入，8月累计净流入已超过30亿美元。 💰 资金信号：最新数据显示，BTC ETF单日仍有约3.14亿美元净流入，ETH ETF也录得约1.80亿美元流入。说明机构需求并没有随着价格冲高而立即消失。 ⚠️ 真正值得观察的是杠杆。 BTC期货未平仓量下降，而现货价格同步回落，更像部分仓位正在主动降杠杆，而不是大量新增空头。 🧠 我的判断：现在市场进入的可能不是“趋势结束”，而是上涨后的重新定价阶段。接下来，比起盯着某一个价格，更应该观察ETF资金能否持续，以及BTC能否在高位消化获利盘。 🌐 Altcoin方面，资金并没有全面扩散，部分板块出现明显分化，说明市场仍然更偏向“选择性风险”。 你认为接下来最关键的信号是什么：ETF资金、BTC高位承接，还是Altcoin资金轮动？ 💬 #Crypto #BTC $SNDK Why have storage stocks like these been valued low in the past?
It's not because they don't make money, but because the market doesn't believe this profitability can be sustained. Profits are good during high demand periods, but investors know the cycle will return; during low demand periods, losses are severe, and investors hesitate to buy early. The strong cyclicality is the root cause of the long-term valuation discount in the storage industry.
What is most noteworthy this time is not just its judgment on AI demand, but its emphasis on long-term contracts and new business models.
If multi-year supply agreements can cover most of future capacity, revenue volatility will decrease, and profit visibility will increase. The market is most willing to pay for "predictability," not for one-time price hikes.
This is completely different from traditional storage transactions. Previously, customers replenished inventory at low prices and pulled back at high prices, causing manufacturers' revenues to fluctuate wildly with prices. If long-term contracts become mainstream, customers lock in supply in advance, manufacturers lock in capacity in advance, and both sides reduce extreme volatility. This also makes sense for AI customers because data center construction is not a one-time purchase but a capital expenditure plan spanning several years.
Of course, long-term contracts are not magic. They depend on contract prices, customer quality, default risk, and market changes. If NAND prices plummet in the future, will customers renegotiate? These are questions the market will ask later.
$SNDK The place with the most current attention is that it convinces the market: the storage industry may no longer have to rely solely on inventory cycles; it can also rely on AI infrastructure contracts. PCE is out, the rate cut dream is delayed again, Friday is the real big test. Many were waiting for a PCE-driven rally, but the data came out with basically no big movement. The US July PCE data is out. Core PCE month-over-month is 0.2%, year-over-year 3.3%, exactly as the market expected. Overall PCE month-over-month is 0.2%, year-over-year 3.7%, slightly higher than expected. This data can’t be considered positive; fortunately, core inflation didn’t spike, so the market is temporarily stableZEC 正式踏入了华尔街的大门。相比它在短时间内冲上 867 美元的历史高位，这件事的意义其实更为深远。价格的上扬往往带有情绪和资金的共振，但一个合规的、面向传统投资者的入口，才是资产真正完成身份转变的里程碑。 灰度旗下的 Zcash ETF（代码 ZCSH）已在纽交所旗下平台 NYSE Arca 正式挂牌，这是美国市场中首个直接提供 ZEC 敞口的上市交易产品。在此之前，ZEC 刚刚从大约 600 美元附近一路攀升至 867 美元的峰值，市场热度可见一斑。然而，更值得玩味的是首日成交数据——约 1480 万美元。这个数字放在比特币 ETF 面前确实显得安静，但对于长期被视为小众隐私币的 ZEC 来说，它的意义完全不同。 过去，ZEC 的买家大多来自加密圈内部，资金在数字资产的世界里循环流转。而现在，传统券商账户里的资金也可以直接参与，这意味着 ZEC 的投资者结构正在发生底层变化。更值得注意的是，这只 ETF 在上市前基金规模就已超过 3.13 亿美元，并非从零起步。一个带着既有规模进入华尔街的隐私资产，说明机构资金早已在暗处布局。 市场对 ZEC 的叙事也在悄然改写。曾经它被简单定#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
#英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视
NVIDIA's Q2 earnings released at 4 AM — revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of $92.38 billion. Data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. Gross margin at 75%, maintained for two consecutive quarters.
The report shows AI has reached a turning point; computing power equals revenue. The Q3 revenue guidance is $108 billion (±2%), also exceeding expectations.
But the stock price fell about 1% after hours. Why?
Reason? Market expectations were too high.
In the past four quarters, NVIDIA's stock price has often "pulled back after exceeding expectations" following earnings reports.
Potential impact on the crypto market:
First, storage continues to be in short supply. NVIDIA's $89 billion data center revenue is solid proof — AI infrastructure is still accelerating. The more GPUs, the greater the demand for HBM. Profit expectations for SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk will be further boosted.
Second, the computing power narrative is reinforced. The more money AI infrastructure burns, the more fiat currency credit is diluted — BTC's non-sovereign narrative will only get stronger.
The performance is indeed strong, but expectations are even stronger. Even NVIDIA experiences "pullbacks after exceeding expectations," so consider carefully before chasing highs.
But in the short term, the fact that even NVIDIA's performance can't drive the stock price indicates that market pricing has already moved ahead of fundamentals. Recently, Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced a mild pullback, causing many friends to become anxious, worried that the price might break below previous lows or even hit new lows. This feeling is completely understandable, especially after a rapid surge; any slight fluctuation can easily make people uneasy. From the chart structure perspective, this pullback is actually predictable. After Bitcoin broke through around $80,000, it immediately entered a strong resistance zone between $80,000 and $82,000. This range historically accumulated a large amount of trapped positions and short-term profit-taking, so the price slowing down here, even experiencing some degree of retracement, is a very normal market digestion behavior. The previous rapid rise led some funds to take profits, which actually helps the subsequent market move more solidly. Another background worth noting is that the previous surge was largely driven by short covering. The market bought back tens of billions of dollars worth of short positions in a short time; this force came quickly and faded quickly. Once the liquidation wave ends, buying momentum naturally weakens, and the market enters a sideways consolidation or slight pullback, reflecting a supply-demand rebalance rather than necessarily indicating a trend reversal. From the capital flow perspective, there is currently no obvious sign of panic. The Bitcoin spot ETF has recently maintained a net inflow status, and institutional funds have not massively withdrawn. This indicates that mainstream participants remain cautiously optimistic about the current price level, more in a wait-and-see mode rather than fleeing. So how should we view the next move? Personally, I tend to characterize the current trend as a profit-taking phase after the rise $BTC 4-hour KDJ golden cross, about to surge upwards again!
Yesterday it moved sideways instead of dropping, with volatility around 2%. The 4-hour MACD also successfully neutralized this intense rally momentum. Next, we need to see if it can hold above 82420; only by holding this level can the bull trend be confirmed!
$SPCX spot bought last night experienced some wicks up and down, sometimes in profit, sometimes back to cost price, overall a 3% gain. Still optimistic because I have already sold all my OKB positions. I checked, and OKB needs to hold above 114 today to continue its upward trend!
Be patient and hope the market gives us retail investors another chance to bottom buy. Chasing highs when it rises is very risky; if it pulls back, it might be stuck at the peak again. So don’t rush, there are plenty of opportunities. If there are no good altcoin picks, just look at the US stock market!BTC rose 23% this week. Previously, the market was suppressed by cautious sentiment, with short positions piling up more and more. As a result, two large-scale liquidations directly shattered expectations: $1.37 billion was liquidated on the 19th, and another $739 million on the 21st. Notably, after squeezing out high leverage, the market did not immediately enter a crazier leverage-adding phase. Perpetual open interest fell back to 284,000 BTC, and the funding rate returned to neutral, indicati$NVDA NVIDIA's earnings report directly contradicts the bearish camp. Revenue year-over-year +106%, data center revenue year-over-year +117%, with such a large scale still achieving an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase. Next quarter guidance is for 12% quarter-over-quarter growth, not yet including overseas data center revenue. AI demand is genuinely not slowing down. A slight dip in gross margin during the session triggered a brief sell-off, but funds immediately flowed back, lifting the en