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#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
I believe the evaluation logic for the AI market has completely shifted. The market no longer pays just for capital expenditure but starts to rigorously scrutinize AI monetization capabilities. Only companies that can produce real orders and cash flow can continue to rise.
NVIDIA's Q2 revenue doubled with a FY2028 growth guidance of 70%, which seems strong, but actual delivery is still limited by supply bottlenecks, indicating that the marginal effect of simply stacking hardware is diminishing. On the software side, Salesforce AI ARR is approaching $4 billion, CrowdStrike's new ARR hit a record, and Synopsys raised its outlook. These signals show AI returns are extending from chips to design and application layers. Okta's moderate growth further confirms market differentiation: only truly converted orders are recognized.
Hardware side: NVIDIA's data center business continues high growth but is constrained by packaging capacity like CoWoS; having orders but no stock is the current situation.
Software side: Salesforce's AI product annual recurring revenue is close to $4 billion, a very concrete monetization milestone; CrowdStrike's new annual recurring revenue also set a record.
Verification point: Marvell's upcoming performance is key. As a representative of network connectivity, its performance will test whether AI growth can extend from computing chips through data transmission to enterprise software.
The AI market has entered the verification phase. Hardware looks at delivery bottlenecks, software looks at ARR conversion.
@OKX星球 $ETH second coin is grinding between 2465 and 2505 today, with a small 24-hour increase of 1% to 2.5%, and a weekly gain of over 25%, clearly outperforming the main coin.
The most eye-catching data is the spot ETF, which had a net inflow of $307 million on August 27, setting a recent single-day record and marking seven consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock's ETHA alone absorbed $263 million. The total size of ETH ETFs has surpassed $30.1 billion, showing that institutions are truly treating the second coin as a core asset this time.
The technical side is also overheated, with the daily RSI exceeding 90, the kind of rise that makes your palms sweat. 2500 is a psychological resistance at a round number, 2415 to 2430 is short-term support, and breaking below 2325 would look bad structurally. This wave has surged steeply from around 1573 to 2547, so profit-taking is definitely expected.
The good news is that on-chain staking rates are high, exchange balances are low, supply is tightening, and with the Grammsterdam upgrade on the way, the fundamentals are solid.
The bad news is that regulation is a bit cold; Galaxy cut the probability of the CLARITY Act passing from 75% to 10%, and the SEC still hasn't given a clear answer on whether ETH counts as a security.
My stance: continue to be bullish long-term, but don't blindly chase above 2500 in the short term. It's safer to wait for a pullback to 2460-2475 and buy in batches, with a stop loss below 2435. The greed index is already at 80, and it's precisely at times like this that you need to control your impulses and not be led by FOMO.I was about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked my balance and decided against it. The market is always right. $RE When others are running away, I saw a pullback hold steady, with support below, so I said it was a good time to go long. The chart looked scary at that time, but the logic was very clear.
Entry price was 0.42740. Many people were shaken out, but I held on. Now $RE has reached 0.53230, with a floating profit of +490.45%. This gain feels good; the patience paid off. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly rewarding.
The money you make reflects your understanding; the money you lose reflects your shortcomings. Experts die trying to catch the bottom, amateurs perish chasing highs, and smart people live in the moment.
Position management: first take profit on 75%, securing the bulk of gains, then move the stop loss for the remaining 25% above the cost price to let profits run. Take profits when you should; don’t let gains turn into discomfort.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Patiently wait for the next signal, and I will notify you immediately. Awaiting good news.
$XRP $ETH 核心PCE同比 3.3% 持平上月，很多人松口气；环比却从 0.1% 加速到 0.2%。BTC $78.8k，摸过 $81.3k 仍没收稳80k。沃什周五怎么定调？我定调前不加最后一棒。 BTC 现在 $78.8k。近7日涨了约 9%，恐惧贪婪从 27 拉到 74，可现货量只有 0.56x。 我第一反应不是「宏观利好落地了」，而是：钱进了、情绪热了、成交却冷了——这种组合，最怕迎头撞上定调日。所以我把追高的手按住了。 话题写「核心PCE持平上月」。持平的是同比：3.3%，和6月一样。可环比从 0.1% 走到 0.2%，整体PCE同比还在 3.7%。 离美联储 2% 目标，不是「差不多了」，是还差一截。市场爱读左边的持平；粘性藏在右边的加速。持平给的是空间，不是绿灯。 沃什 Jackson Hole 首秀，主题可以绕金融创新，可盘面只听三句： 通胀粘性他认不认；流动性偏松还是偏紧；九月是观望还是施压。 偏松——风险资产松一口气，BTC 更有机会去试 80k。中性——波动先放大，78–80k 横着耗。 偏鹰——先看 78k，丢了就按诱多重估。 我不赌他喊不喊加密。我赌的是：一句语气，就能把📊 $NVDA this time is more like "fundamentals remain strong, but valuation demands are rising".
In the effective snapshot before the earnings report, NVDA was once around $210.55, down about 3.2% from the previous close, significantly weaker than $QQQ's approximately -0.9% during the same period, indicating that capital had proactively reduced some risk exposure to core AI assets before the earnings.
The earnings themselves are actually very strong: Q2 revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year; meanwhile, the company’s guidance for next quarter revenue is about $108 billion, continuing to confirm that AI computing demand shows no obvious cooling.
But the market is no longer simply trading on "whether AI demand is strong or not," but on whether growth can continue to exceed already very high expectations. The stock price fell first then rallied after the earnings release, also indicating significant capital divergence: performance is strong enough, but gross margin pressure, rising costs, and uncertainty in the China business are starting to become new valuation constraints.
👀 In the short term, NVDA is currently more worth watching for "whether the positive momentum can be sustained after the good news," rather than just looking at the earnings numbers. If the stock price can subsequently regain the weak range before the earnings, it means capital is still willing to pay for AI’s high growth; if even strong earnings cannot push the price to continue rising, it means the market is gradually shifting from "chasing growth" to "picking valuations."
Overall, fundamentals have not obviously weakened; what’s truly becoming difficult is the ever-higher expectations.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Large Inflows into Gold ETFs, Risk-Aversion Assets Are Being Reallocated
In this round of gold price increase, what truly deserves attention is not just the new highs in gold prices, but that capital is beginning to reprice gold with real money.
The latest data shows a significant recent capital inflow into global gold ETFs. In just one round of capital statistics, gold ETFs attracted about 46.7 tons, approximately $6.4 billion, marking the largest single inflow in nearly 10 months. Meanwhile, gold and BTC combined have attracted about $7 billion over the past five trading days. 
This indicates a very interesting change:
Capital is not simply fleeing from risky assets to cash, but is instead searching anew for assets that can hedge against currency, fiscal, and geopolitical risks.
Why is capital now concentrating on buying gold?
There are three core reasons.
First, U.S. dollar credit and fiscal risks.
The long-term U.S. debt, fiscal deficit, and dollar purchasing power issues are re-entering capital pricing.
Therefore, this gold rally does not rely entirely on "interest rate cut expectations."
There is even a noteworthy combination:
Gold up + BTC up + Dollar weakening.
Market trading is increasingly approaching what is called a "currency depreciation trade." 
Second, the safe-haven function of U.S. Treasuries is being reassessed.
After the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, long-end yields and the dollar have temporarily declined, which has become an important catalyst for gold's breakout. 
The previous logic was:
Rising risk → Buy dollars → Buy U.S. Treasuries.
Now some capital is shifting to:
Rising fiscal risk → Gold.
This does not mean U.S. Treasuries have lost their safe-haven status, but safe-haven capital is beginning to divert.
Third, institutional allocation is strengthening.
Data from the World Gold Council shows that in July, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of about $3 billion, with global gold ETF holdings increasing by about 23 tons to 4,068 tons. 
So this time it is not retail investors suddenly chasing gold, but institutional allocation demand returning.
Will risk-averse assets further expand beyond "buying gold"?
I believe signs of this are already appearing.
The market can now roughly be divided into three categories:
First layer: Traditional safe haven — Gold
Core issues addressed:
Inflation, currency credit, geopolitical risk.
Second layer: Liquidity safe haven — Cash/short-term bonds
Core issues addressed:
Waiting for opportunities, reducing portfolio volatility.
Third layer: High-beta hard asset — BTC
BTC’s nature is somewhat special.
It is not yet a traditional safe-haven asset, but in the current market, more capital is beginning to treat it as a scarce asset and a tool for allocation outside the dollar system.
This also explains the recent rare synchronous rise of gold and BTC. 
But there is a very important risk here.
Large inflows into gold ETFs do not inherently mean gold prices can rise indefinitely.
Because gold has already experienced a rapid surge, short-term capital is becoming crowded.
Moreover, PCE, Jackson Hole, and Federal Reserve policy expectations will still directly affect the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
If the Fed turns clearly hawkish:
Dollar ↑ → U.S. Treasury yields ↑ → Gold under short-term pressure.
So what should be observed now is:
Whether ETF capital inflows can be sustained, not just the size of single-day inflows.
If gold ETFs continue to have net inflows in the coming weeks, while the dollar weakens and long-end yields decline, then this is not a short-term risk trade but possibly a readjustment of institutional asset allocation proportions.
This is actually a positive signal for BTC.
This point is especially worth noting.
If gold ETFs continue to attract capital and BTC ETFs also continue to receive funds, it means capital is not simply "fleeing risky assets."
Instead, it is seeking:
Scarce assets + assets resistant to currency depreciation + assets outside the traditional financial system.
Therefore, I will focus on one combination going forward:
Sustained inflows into gold ETFs + sustained inflows into BTC ETFs + weakening dollar + long-end U.S. Treasury yields peaking.
If all four conditions are met simultaneously, gold and BTC may continue to form a "dual hard asset driver."
In short: Large inflows into gold ETFs do not truly indicate how fearful the market is, but rather that institutions are reconsidering "where money should be placed." In the past, risk aversion mainly relied on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries; now gold is reclaiming part of the allocation, while BTC is competing for another portion of "non-sovereign scarce asset" capital. $BTC #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 A few days ago, I kept asking a question:
After the shorts get liquidated, who will continue to push?
Now, it seems the next in line is starting to appear.
In the past 10 hours, the BlackRock-related ETF wallet withdrew from Coinbase Prime:
3,620 BTC, about $282 million
12,530 ETH, about $30.6 million
A total of $312 million.
A single withdrawal doesn't say much, but looking at the past week is interesting:
1. BTC: Institutional money is still flowing in
The US spot BTC ETF has had net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.57 billion.
Coincidentally, IBIT recently had a single-day net inflow of about $284.4 million, and this time the BTC value transferred into the ETF wallet is about $282 million.
The two figures almost match.
So this batch of BTC looks more like delivery and storage after ETF subscriptions, rather than a simple wallet reshuffle.
2. ETH: Someone is starting to take over as well
ETH ETFs have also maintained continuous net inflows in recent trading days.
This time, the BlackRock-related wallet again withdrew 12,530 ETH from Coinbase Prime.
At least this shows one thing:
Institutions are not only focused on BTC.
3. What we really need to watch next is not the shorts anymore
The first push came from short liquidations.
But the short squeeze can't last forever.
If ETFs can continue to maintain net inflows, then the market will shift from:
"Shorts forced to buy"
Slowly to:
"Institutions actively taking over."
These two types of rallies are completely different in nature.
So from now on, I will only watch one signal:
As long as ETFs don't ease off the gas, this rally can't be easily said to be over.
But chasing the market now is obviously not as comfortable as a week ago.
$BTC $ETH $NVDA Nvidia introduces a revenue-sharing mechanism (including "take-it-or-leave-it" and minimum revenue guarantees), marking its business model shift from selling hardware to charging service fees, aiming to redistribute industry chain risks and rewards.
For Nvidia itself, this is a proactive strategic upgrade. Locking in long-term revenue can smooth performance fluctuations and reduce reliance on chip sales alone; meanwhile, by sharing the downstream cloud providers' idle computing power risk, it can further bind customers and consolidate AI ecosystem dominance. However, this move also indirectly acknowledges that AI demand is not unlimited, requiring Nvidia to absorb some future uncertainties and customer credit risks, taking on more complex financial and operational challenges.
For upstream suppliers like SanDisk, the impact is an indirect "dimensionality reduction strike." As Nvidia's core HBM supplier, SanDisk's product barrier lies in manufacturing processes, while Nvidia's barrier is in the CUDA ecosystem and platform services. The gap in their business models is amplified, highlighting SanDisk's cyclical vulnerability as a "commodity" storage chip supplier. Additionally, Nvidia's "charging water fees" will squeeze the survival space of downstream pure computing power resellers, transmitting operational pressure back and putting SanDisk under a harsher price-cutting environment. Previous concerns about AI computing power oversupply have already caused significant stock price volatility. Although SanDisk has tried to sign long-term agreements to stabilize expectations, whether it can build its own ecosystem barrier remains unknown.
Overall, Nvidia deepens its moat through model innovation, while SanDisk's commoditized nature appears passive in the face of platform strategies. Market concerns about its future bargaining power and profit margins may persist. $SNDK Assuming a sudden macro shock occurs, the market quickly prices in inflation and interest rate risks, causing BTC to plummet rapidly in a short time, dropping overnight to $30,000. At this moment, your account holds 5 BTC, showing a significant unrealized loss on paper. Two most straightforward choices lie ahead: panic sell to exit and avoid further downside risk; or judge that the price is oversold, use reserve funds to buy the dip against the trend to average down your position cost. The just-passed super data week has already fully played out this macro-driven market script. In July, the US PCE price data was released, with overall PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, core PCE year-over-year at 3.3%, indicating inflation stickiness has not clearly eased. The market quickly raised expectations for Fed rate hikes within the year, US Treasury yields rose in tandem, and global risk assets collectively came under pressure. Shortly after, Nvidia released its Q2 earnings report, with revenue and profits exceeding market expectations across the board, but its stock price first dropped then rebounded after hours. Market divergence over AI's high valuation further widened, and the sentiment volatility in tech stocks also transmitted outward to the crypto market. Macro-level fluctuations do not require large on-chain transfers by whales to directly trigger sharp spike-like volatility in BTC and ETH. In every round of rapid decline, the market naturally splits into two types of traders: some panic sell their chips; others see the drop as a rare opportunity to build positions. But the vast majority overlook one core fact: your choice is not determined by which price the market falls to, but by your position structure, holding cost, whether you are leveraged, and the capital usage cycle. IfWhy has $80,000 repeatedly failed to break through? ① Concentrated profit-taking by long-term holders (the biggest suppression) On-chain data shows that after BTC surged more than 25% last week, a large number of long-term holders began transferring their positions to exchanges. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) rose to 1.48 on August 22, the highest since July 25, indicating that long-term investors are realizing profits at a faster pace. CryptoQuant pointed out: "The key issue is not whether BTGenius Trader - Little Soybean (Day13)
$BTC
Daily chart: Last night at 20:30, the PCE changed the script. July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. Core PCE year-on-year was steady at 3.3%, but the month-on-month 0.2% is the highest since April — solid proof of sticky inflation. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 36% to 40%, the US Dollar Index rose above 99, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged back to 4.65%. Bitcoin promptly dropped below 78,000, currently consolidating narrowly around 78,700. After surging to 81,200 this week, it has fallen for three consecutive days. It has been emphasized multiple times before that above 80,000 is a dense trap zone; without incremental funds, it cannot be eaten in one bite.
The good news is that spot ETFs have had net inflows for 7 consecutive days, with +314 million on 8/26 alone, totaling 3.03 billion in August, and AUM is approaching 99 billion;
The bad news is that Strategy hasn't bought coins for two weeks, long-term holders are cashing out in batches at high levels, and the 8/22 correction cleared 547 million in leveraged positions.
The real master switch is Friday's debut of Waller at Jackson Hole — with the PCE number out, it's hard for him to be dovish. If he turns hawkish, the QE Lite depreciation trade narrative will be directly hit;
Technically, the daily chart is still bullish, but the 4-hour MACD red bars are continuously contracting, indicating a short-term digestion phase after overbought conditions. Judgment: 78,000-77,000 is the first line of defense, direction depends on Waller's answer. Intraday movement range: 78,000-79,600. 73.929 $HYPE long, 50x, now 81.016. The core of this trade is not the technical aspect, but the sector rhythm — the sector to which HYPE belongs started ahead of the broader market that day, and 73.929 was exactly the follow-up entry point when the sector leader pulled back. Reviewing the trade shows: the pattern of the sector leader moving first and the followers moving later is fully confirmed in this trade.
After holding for about an hour, it reached 81.016 with substantial unrealized gains. However, the follow-up stocks' upward momentum is weaker than the leader's; usually, when the leader pauses, they drop. This is a common issue with sector rotation trades.
Subsequent handling: do not hold out with them; reduce position directly in the 81-82 range, and move the stop loss for the remaining position up to cost. The money made in sector rotation trades is from "being first," not from "late momentum." Next time with similar opportunities, only trade the leader, not the followers, or get on board after the leader is confirmed. $BTC $ETH South Korea's central bank raises interest rates for the second consecutive time! Global liquidity divergence, the market's hidden variable has arrived
$BTC South Korea's central bank has acted again! The benchmark interest rate has risen to 3.00%, tightening for the second time in two months, marking the first consecutive rate hikes in over three years.
Once the decision was made, the Korean won continued to strengthen, rising as much as 0.56% on the day. Since June, the won has surged over 12% in total.
Why is South Korea in such a hurry? Growth (GDP growth expected at 3.3% in 2026) is decent, but inflation remains above the 2% target, and exchange rate pressure is huge—three major burdens pressing down, so they have to hit the brakes.
But what’s really worth watching today is not South Korea, but the "divergence"
The market is still waiting for the U.S. to ease, while South Korea has already hit the brakes twice in a row.
On one side, global funds are trading on expectations of U.S. easing; on the other, Asian central banks, due to growth, exchange rate, and inflation pressures, are pushing funding costs in the opposite direction.
Global liquidity is not a broad easing but a severe split.
What does this mean for BTC?
1. Don’t expect a "global easing" resonance in the short term
One of the core logics behind BTC’s rise from 64,000 to 80,000 was the "easing expectation." Now South Korea’s rate hike proves: not all central banks are easing, liquidity stories have cracks, and U.S. expectations alone can’t support a full bull market.
2. The strength or weakness of the dollar is the real game changer
South Korea’s rate hike → stronger won → Asia-Pacific capital inflows/volatility, which may disturb risk appetite in the short term. But BTC’s pricing anchor remains the dollar + U.S. Treasury real yields. Whether the Fed eases or not is still the biggest variable; South Korea is a side story, not the main line.
3. Who turns first next is the big variable
The market is currently betting on U.S. easing, but if inflation fluctuates, the Fed holds steady, and Asia tightens, global liquidity will be tighter than anyone expects. This expectation gap is the powder keg for the next big risk asset volatility.
In summary
South Korea’s rate hike itself is not fatal, but it is the latest evidence that "global easing is not universal."
BTC’s real opponent has never been the South Korean central bank, but the shift in global liquidity expectations.
Next to watch closely: U.S. CPI, Fed speeches, dollar index—who eases first, who tightens first, that’s the hand that will decide the next wave’s direction. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Recently, the market has been discussing a question: Will AI Agents directly eliminate traditional SaaS? Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff has come forward this time to say: There is no such thing as a so-called "SaaS end." Let's put it simply. SaaS is the software that companies pay for every month or year, such as Salesforce helping companies manage customers, sales, and after-sales. AI Agents are more like "AI employees who can do their own work"—if you tell them the goal, they can search for information, access software, handle customers, or even complete entire tasks. So the market worries: since AI can handle things on its own, will companies still need to buy so many traditional software accounts in the future? But Salesforce's latest financial report offers a different answer. Q2 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 11% year-on-year; More importantly, Agentforce and Data 360's annualized recurring revenue has approached $3.9 billion, up more than 210% year-on-year, and the company has also raised its full-year revenue forecast. In other words, AI has at least not swallowed Salesforce yet; instead, it is becoming its new source of growth. This is also Benioff's confidence in refuting the "SaaS end." AI agents may change the way we use software, but enterprise data, customer relationships, and workflows will not disappear into thin air. The future may just be "people pointing software"Reviewing historical data, BTC's volatility around the Jackson Hole Symposium is always significant. In 2023, Powell's speech was hawkish, and BTC dropped 5% that day; in 2024, the speech was dovish, and BTC rose 8% over the week. This time, with Wash's speech and PCE data holding steady, market expectations lean dovish. BTC current price is 78099, 24h amplitude 1742 points, rebounded 299 points from the low of 77800. Support and resistance levels verified by three methods: previous high 79542, round number resistance 80000, moving average resistance 79200; support at 78500/78000. Retail investors often heavily bet on direction before major events, which is a big taboo. I previously lost 200,000 U betting this way. Now opening a position with 5000 U, 5x leverage, stop loss at 77800, target 80000, risk-reward ratio 3:1, never hold a position without a stop loss. History won't simply repeat, but retail investors' mistakes always do. Don't let this speech become your liquidation anniversary. $BTC #USCorePCEStableMonthOverMonth, how will Wash's Jackson Hole speech set the tone?NVIDIA's earnings report exploded, but $BTC may not follow the rise! Why?
Q2 revenue was $96.22 billion, exceeding expectations;
Adjusted EPS was $2.22, also above expectations;
Data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year!
Q3 revenue guidance is directly set at $108 billion, also higher than expected.
The data is indeed impressive, so why didn't the stock take off with such a report? Because the market is no longer satisfied with just beating expectations.
NVIDIA's performance in recent quarters has been increasingly impressive, yet the stock price remains under pressure. For NVIDIA now, beating expectations has become the baseline.
There are three key points here:
First, can Rubin smoothly take over;
Second, how long can the massive AI capital expenditure continue;
Third, will rising storage costs like HBM and DRAM continue to squeeze gross margins.
These are the real answers behind this earnings report.
As for BTC, there's no need to try to rationalize its movement based on NVIDIA's stock price.
Because the correlation between BTC and NVDA is not as strong as before; BTC has its own ETF funds, liquidity, and capital logic.
Moreover, last night the PCE indicated a pessimistic outlook on rate cuts, while today NVIDIA stated AI demand is still strong. One is bullish, the other bearish. Next, let's watch for Wash's statement tomorrow.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 X Layer (OKX L2) Current Situation and Outlook
X Layer is currently in a phase of accelerated expansion, positioned as the "new infrastructure for on-chain finance." Technically, it has migrated from zkEVM to an enhanced version of OP Stack, with OKB as the sole Gas token (supply capped at about 21 million), and transaction fees are extremely low (approximately $0.0001–0.0005).
Key Data (August 2026)
• DeFi TVL surpassed $100 million (about 10x growth in half a year), with Aave + Uniswap as the main contributors
• Stablecoin supply exceeds $2 billion, with USDG accounting for a very high proportion
• Cumulative active addresses exceed 4.2 million, with over 400 million transactions
Core Narrative
Focus on pushing RWA (xStocks trading is active, often accounting for over 80% of trading volume) and Exchange OS (staking OKB allows deployment of spot/perpetual/prediction markets). Recently launched a $5 million RWA liquidity incentive, with the first round already implemented.
Advantages and Risks
Advantages include OKX traffic diversion + extremely low costs + deep integration with CeFi. Risks lie in the ecosystem still being early-stage, with growth highly dependent on incentives and parent company resources; real user retention and independent application deployment are key tests.
Personal View
Short-term (second half of this year) optimistic about continued momentum in RWA and trading scenarios. Medium to long-term cautiously optimistic—if incentive-driven traffic can be converted into long-term liquidity, there is a chance to become a distinctive on-chain financial infrastructure; otherwise, it may fall into the competitive dilemma of being an "exchange-affiliated chain."
Not investment advice; data changes rapidly, recommend continuous tracking of L2BEAT, DeFiLlama, and official updates. $SNDK Third scenario realization?
Yesterday's drop before the US stock market opened was actually a bear trap, making everyone think the market would continue to fall today. But after the US market opened, SanDisk perfectly matched Kai Ge's third scenario, blasting the shorts, breaking through 1500 with high volume at the open, and holding above 1500. Then, Nvidia's earnings report came out at midnight, pushing the price even higher.
The information Nvidia provided last night is very critical — fiscal year 2028 revenue is expected to grow about 70%, far exceeding the previous analyst expectation of 44%. The company also stated that actual demand growth has already exceeded 70%, even approaching 100%.
This means AI demand is not over; it is actually accelerating. As AI computing power increases, the demand for servers, storage, and data centers grows accordingly. This is why funds have returned to the semiconductor and storage sectors today.
As one of the leaders in the storage sector, SanDisk has directly wiped away the downturn and completely reversed sentiment. Today, the key focus is whether 1500 can hold. If it holds, I continue to expect strength to persist; if it doesn't, be cautious of a pullback after a rally.
Nvidia has reignited the AI sector, so can SanDisk leverage this momentum to break through previous highs? The real highlight is yet to come! 👇👇👇
This is my personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice! #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Coinbase teams up with Better to launch BTC mortgage down payment program
Coinbase and Better have opened a BTC mortgage down payment program to eligible homebuyers in the United States. It does not involve buying a house directly with BTC: borrowers do not need to sell their coins but must collateralize BTC worth at least 250% of the down payment loan.
A BTC price drop itself will not trigger a margin call; however, if repayment is overdue by 60 days, Better can liquidate the collateral.
This provides long-term holders with a financing option without selling their coins, but it is not a risk-free way to maintain upside exposure. The price risk of BTC does not disappear; it coexists with monthly repayment obligations. If cash flow issues arise, the collateralized BTC may be sold.
What changes is the financing method for holders, not BTC's payment attributes.
#Bitcoin #BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 这一轮 BTC 从 6 万多一路冲上 81,235 美元（8/25，三个多月来首次站上 8 万）， 很多人把它归结为"空头被清算+追涨资金"，但我想说一个更底层的逻辑—— 8 月 19 日美国财政部宣布**加倍购买长期国债**，这才是点燃行情的那根火柴。 当财政端释放"宽松"信号、美元走弱，"贬值交易（debasement trade）"就回来了： 资金重新涌入黄金和 BTC 这类"稀缺、非主权"资产对冲法币稀释。 这就是为什么这一波 BTC 和黄金是同步走强的——它不是单纯的币圈内卷， 而是一次跨资产的"法币信用重新定价"。 看几个值得记住的数据： ① 8/17-8/21，美国现货 BTC+ETH ETF 单周净流入 26 亿美元，是 2026 年年内最强， BTC 产品独揽约 19.2 亿，IBIT 一家就贡献近 78%（8/21 单日 2.39 亿）； 更关键的是，8/24、8/25 继续分别流入 3.38 亿、3.14 亿，已连续 8 个交易日为正—— 轧空之后 ETF 仍在真金白银接盘，说明spot需求在替代杠杆驱After the previous violent short squeeze, BTC has now entered a high-level turnover phase. After surging to touch 81,000, it has pulled back and is currently consolidating between 78,000 and 79,000. Many people are debating whether it can firmly hold above 80,000. My view is: do not blindly go long now, nor casually take heavy short positions.
Current Market Situation
This round of rally was driven by liquidity expectations from US Treasury repurchase operations, continuous ETF inflows, and short covering. However, short-term indicators have already entered a greedy zone. There is a large amount of selling pressure from positions being freed above 80,000-81,000. The bullish momentum from continuous rallies is clearly weakening, and every surge triggers profit-taking and selling pressure.
Two Scenario Analyses
Scenario One: Breakthrough Upward Again
Conditions: ETF maintains large net inflows, US Treasury yields do not rebound, and the pullback does not effectively break below 77,500. After holding above 80,000, the next target resistance is 82,000-83,000.
Scenario Two: Surge and Pullback
If ETF inflows rapidly shrink and macro expectations reverse, and 80,000 repeatedly fails to break, a round of correction will begin. The first support is 77,500-78,000. Once volume-driven break below 76,000 occurs, the short-term rebound structure will be damaged.
Do not chase highs.
If you want to go long, wait for a pullback to key support to stabilize before entering with a light position; if you want to short, do not top pick too early—consider it only if the 80,000 level fails to break.
Focus on two signals: ETF capital flow and 10-year US Treasury yield. These two are the core factors driving this market move. Do not simply watch the candlesticks to bet on direction.The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $2.61 trillion to $2.67 trillion, with a 24-hour change of about -2.15%. The total market 24-hour trading volume sharply dropped from $171.56 billion the previous day to $114.01 billion, a decline of about one-third.
Bitcoin $BTC is fluctuating narrowly in the $78,000-$79,000 range, failing to effectively break through the $80,000 mark. Ethereum $ETH is relatively strong, breaking through $2,500.
Short term: The market is in a "post-surge digestion phase" — Bitcoin holds above $78,000, but market breadth has sharply deteriorated, trading volume has halved, and many longs have been liquidated, indicating increased risk in chasing gains.
Medium term: Bitcoin's weekly gain still reaches 18%, ETFs continue to see inflows, institutional interest returns, and fundamental support remains intact. The market is digesting rather than reversing. Tomorrow (August 28), Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole will be a key catalyst.📊BTC Market Data Review｜23% Weekly Surge, This Rally Not Purely Driven by Contract Short Squeeze
This week BTC recorded a 23% weekly gain. Previously, the market was long shrouded in cautious sentiment, with short positions continuously accumulating. Then two rounds of large-scale liquidations directly shattered market expectations: $1.37B liquidated across the network on the 19th, and another $739M on the 21st, with short squeezes driving prices rapidly upward.
A noteworthy signal: after the high-leverage positions were cleaned out, the market did not immediately enter an aggressive re-leveraging phase.
Perpetual open interest fell back to 284,000 BTC, and the funding rate returned to a neutral range.
The contract leverage did not expand in sync, indicating that this rally is not solely driven by derivatives competing to push prices up; incremental spot buying provided the underlying support.
For the continuation of the trend, focus on the sustainability of spot capital inflows and changes in overall market leverage levels.$ZEC surged from 760 to 818 early this morning, retail investors must clearly understand this logic
The day before yesterday it dropped to 760. On the surface, the ETF's first-day trading volume was only 14.8 million, below expectations, short-term funds rushed out, and leveraged long positions were liquidated one after another, dropping 111 USD in one day.
But this kind of thing is too common in the crypto world—positive news turns into negative, just an emotional release.
The rebound to 818 last night happened because the market calmed down and realized that none of the fundamental logic supporting ZEC's bull run has been broken. This privacy coin ETF by Grayscale is the first of its kind in the US, with Coinbase custody and Jane Street as market maker; the compliant institutional entry channel has been opened. Grayscale's parent company DCG is also rumored to inject 200,000 ZEC, and the ETF approval won't be overturned just because the first-day trading volume was modest.
Looking at the technical side, the NU7 upgrade voting has started, smoothing issuance and reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, all substantial improvements. More importantly, the Ironwood upgrade completely fixed the May vulnerability, with old pools frozen and new pools mathematically verified line by line—this is the hardcore trump card institutions dare to heavily invest in.
My personal judgment:
The rebound from 760 to 818 means the market is saying "The ETF has landed, but the story is far from over." However, the current long positions are crowded, so a short-term pullback to shake out weak hands is highly likely. Retail investors should not rush to chase; consider waiting for a pullback near 780 for a safer entry.
Just like some previous altcoin ETFs that fell first then rose after approval, the script often repeats. #XRP leads crypto market down nearly 7% #Dollar hits largest gain in nearly four weeks $AAOI's post-market surge to $118 indicates buyers are attempting to repair the structure, but the $600 million ATM offering has suppressed the momentum to break through the 52-week high of $233. The core conflict centers on the pace of Q3 revenue guidance between $255 million and $290 million landing versus the valuation pressure from equity dilution.
The current stock price closes at $113.8, having risen from the 52-week low of $18.5, with a YTD gain exceeding 220%, but it remains in a wide consolidation phase digesting the May high of $233. The post-market price rising above $118 triggers a short-term reshuffling of chips within the pullback range.
In terms of driving factors, the doubling of 800G shipments and Q2 revenue of $192 million (up 86% YoY) establish a performance baseline. Texas capacity expansion locks in the delivery capability of 650,000 units per month by year-end, while the dilution expectation caused by the $600 million ATM offering is the main factor suppressing the slope.
If the upward scenario initiates, the price needs to solidify chips around $118 and test higher resistance. The premise is that Q3 revenue reaches the upper guidance of $290 million, and the 1.6T capacity ramp-up progress eliminates the valuation discount caused by the offering. The signal of this scenario failing is intraday turnover expanding without volume and failure to close above $118.
If the downward scenario triggers, selling pressure from the ATM offering will dominate the trend, and the price may test and break the $113.8 support zone. Trigger conditions include production ramp-up delays or bottlenecks in 800G delivery, causing deviation from the $1.1 billion full-year revenue target. Once $113.8 is broken with sustained volume contraction, the downward structure will be confirmed.
Peers $LITE trade near $939 with YTD gains over 150%, $COHR is at $294, and the sector overall remains buoyant but with increased volatility. The failure point of the overall bullish structure is set at the key support of $113.8; daily closes consistently below this level would indicate a phase reversal of the prior 220% uptrend.
The most critical observation variables over the next 7 days are the strength of the $118 post-market gains during regular trading hours and the actual execution pace of the $600 million ATM offering.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码 Hyperliquid activated a new mechanism yesterday: 90% of the earnings from approximately $5 billion in reserves will be automatically used to buy back HYPE, with the first execution on October 3; the platform's daily fees are about $6.5 million, which is the buyback fund.
However, on August 29, about 14.18 million HYPE tokens were unlocked, worth approximately $1.2 billion at the current price, nearly half of which went to early investors. The buyback funds will arrive in October, but the unlocked tokens will circulate by the end of the month, meaning the directions are opposite and the timing is staggered.
The real test comes after the unlock: how many tokens will enter exchanges.
On the same day, Uniswap confirmed the activation of the v4 fee switch, where about one-sixth of the trading fees are used to buy and burn UNI. The daily protocol revenue increased from $114,000 to about $325,000. Two leading DeFi platforms implemented "revenue → buyback" on the same day.
The headwind is macroeconomic: US July PCE year-over-year rose 3.7%, slightly above expectations, and the market's pricing for a September rate hike rose to 42%. Bitcoin fell from above 81,000 to around 78,000. Before the Fed Chair's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, interest rate expectations remain a variable.
Next, watch three things: exchange inflows of HYPE within 48 hours after unlocking, the actual daily UNI burn amount, and whether the Jackson Hole speech provides a policy path.$XPL listened to advice and shorted down to 0.02. Do you still dare to bottom-fish this coin? The project team looks down on you. This is not a dump at all, you know? The project team’s support rate for this token is almost zero. It’s not a real cash buyback but a release of reward xpl, endless and infinite selling pressure. Which market maker dares to move? This is also why the peak was right at the opening. I bottom-fished from 0.6 to 0.4, then after communicating with a group of big shots on TG for a long time, I directly cut losses and switched to shorting. Now everything has long since come back.NVIDIA's earnings report is out, and Hynix is really frustrating right now 😭
Stayed up until dawn last night to finish watching NVIDIA $NVDA's earnings report, feeling quite conflicted after.
Objectively, the earnings data looks great, with revenue and next quarter guidance all exceeding market expectations. The after-hours trading followed the usual script: a plunge at first, then a strong rebound.
At least one thing is confirmed: the overall demand for AI computing power hasn't collapsed, the big foundation is stable.
But there's a very key point many people overlook.
Throughout the entire call, they never clearly confirmed the HBM memory specs for the next-generation GPU.
There have been rumors about possible downgrades, which is the biggest hidden risk hanging over Hynix, like a stone suspended in midair, not fully settled yet.
Back to Hynix $SKHY itself.
The fundamentals are indeed strong, profits have surged significantly, and HBM orders are basically fully booked, with Hynix taking the largest share of this pie.
But the awkward part is, these good news have already been largely priced into the stock.
Those who have traded Hynix recently should deeply feel this stock is especially torturous right now.
Often it strengthens before the market opens, then plunges sharply right at the open; if it weakens pre-market, it tends to bottom out and pull up.
Stop losses on both long and short sides get triggered repeatedly, whether you hold long or short, the experience is very poor.
Now that the shoe has dropped, the reality is:
The mid-to-long-term logic hasn't been disproven by the earnings report, so no need to be completely pessimistic.
But don't expect a single earnings report to trigger a huge, spectacular rally.
There are a lot of profit-taking positions piled up at high levels, and many trapped positions waiting to be freed above, so any slight rebound will see funds cashing out and running.
Most likely, the stock will either:
- Keep oscillating within a range, churning shares back and forth;
- Or see funds fleeing after good news is realized, retesting support again.
Honestly, a reminder: don't get overheated and rush in just because the earnings beat expectations.
The uncertainty around HBM specs remains, and future volatility will only increase.
Especially when trading contracts, be sure to manage your position size carefully; in this kind of high-frequency spike market, stop losses can easily be triggered unfairly.
👉 Just want to ask everyone, are you currently long or short? Do you think storage can still start a new major uptrend? Brothers and sisters, the big coin $BTC is hovering around $78,000 today, with a slight drop of less than 1% in 24 hours, which is a normal breather after last week's sharp surge from $63,800 to $81,200.
It has risen more than 22% this week, so it's normal for short-term traders to take profits; don't panic at every pullback. The key point is that spot ETFs have had net inflows for 7 consecutive days, with $314 million absorbed just on Tuesday, and over $3 billion accumulated in August. BlackRock's IBIT alone took the lion's share. What does this mean? Institutions are not just talking bullish; they are buying with real money, which is completely different from pure leveraged rallies.
The technical side is a bit stretched, with the daily RSI above 84, indicating severe overbought conditions, so high-level oscillation is not surprising. The strong resistance is between $80,000 and $82,500, with short-term support at $76,900 and further down at $75,700. This round of rally from $63,800 to over $80,000 in 21 days was driven by $4 billion worth of short positions being squeezed out, combined with continuous ETF buying—a combination of macro liquidity adding positions and short squeeze.
Whether it can hold above $80,000 next depends on real buying power, not just short sellers being squeezed out. My personal view is that the structure is intact, but chasing highs has average cost-effectiveness; it's more comfortable to consider adding positions after a pullback to key support. Don't forget the August options expiration and Jackson Hole are just around the corner, so volatility will only get more intense. Control your hands and save some bullets; that's better than anything else.$BICO: Short it, wait for the waterfall!
Core reasoning logic is as follows:
1. Token valuation ceiling: 100% full circulation means complete transparency on the supply side, with no expectation gap from future unlocks. Lacking new narratives to bring in external incremental funds, relying solely on speculative trading within the market naturally limits its explosive potential. A 20%-30% rise easily hits resistance levels where major players cash out.
2. Bottom-tier chip structure: According to the "smart money" data in the screenshot, short positions held by major players reach 2.14 million U, while longs are only 1.32 million U. The nominal long-short ratio is as high as 61.41%, and shorts are heavily underwater (-185,000 U), indicating shorts are aggressively holding against the trend; although longs have a high profit ratio (66%), their position size is small, typical of "false strength."
3. Negative fee "trap" mechanism: The current extreme negative fee rate of -1.898% is a "tool" used by major players to lure retail investors into going long. The major players use this high fee subsidy as bait to create a false appearance of market strength, forcing retail investors to chase highs despite high long costs, making them liquidity takers at the peak.
4. Waterfall expectation: The long margin of only 1.32 million U cannot withstand the selling pressure of 100% circulating supply. Once the negative fee harvesting cycle ends (countdown over 5 hours), long funds will be exhausted, and major players will close shorts and aggressively dump, causing the market to quickly reveal its true form and return to its real value range.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Over the past week, Bitcoin's narrative focus has quietly shifted from price charts to capital flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of over $2 billion in just five trading days, marking a rare wave of intensive accumulation in the past decade. What is noteworthy is not the figure itself, but where it occurred—Bitcoin is not at the low point after a deep drop, but is approaching a key resistance zone after a strong rebound. This "high-level acceptance" pattern forces the market to re-examine institutional capital's true intentions. We cannot know the exact strategy of each fund, but capital behavior itself sends a clear signal: even when prices are no longer cheap, large capital is still willing to increase exposure within this range. This at least indicates that the current price is still within an acceptable value range for some institutions, or that they are positioning for longer cycles. Compared to single-day fluctuations, this sustained inflow trend often better reflects the true attitude of professional capital. If you only look at candlesticks, market sentiment is easily swayed by red and green candlesticks. But the significance of ETF flows lies in providing a calmer dimension for observation. If Bitcoin experiences a pullback in the future and institutional inflows remain resilient, it likely means large funds are accumulating shares through volatility rather than panicking out. Conversely, if prices repeatedly struggle at resistance levels while inflow data shrinks simultaneously, that is the real warning of weakening demand momentum. Therefore, rather than a single inflow peak, I pay more attention to the slope and persistence of the flow curve. Currently, above $80,000The market these past few days has actually been quite interesting. On the surface, it seems calm, but beneath the surface, the breathing rhythms of different sectors are completely different. Today, I want to share some of my observations on the current market structure, focusing on two easily overlooked dimensions: liquidity and volatility. Let's start with Bitcoin. As the stabilizing anchor of the entire market, its 24-hour total turnover across the entire network has remained stable between 70 billion and 110 billion USD, which speaks volumes. Daily volatility is roughly between 1.5% and 3.5%, and even in extreme news, single-day fluctuations rarely exceed 8%. The advantage of this scale is that when panic selling occurs in the market, Bitcoin tends to absorb the strongest bottom-fishing funds. Its current trend is mostly driven by macro variables such as inflows and outflows from US ETFs, US Treasury yields, and regulatory policies. Events like Nvidia's earnings report, though occasionally causing brief emotional turmoil, basically cannot change the medium-term trend. Ethereum presents a different picture. Its total network turnover is about $35 billion to $50 billion, but intraday volatility is significantly wider, typically between 2% and 5%, and in extreme market conditions, it can even reach 8% to 12%. This high Beta attribute means that when risk appetite rebounds, ETH is more resilient than Bitcoin; But once US tech stocks weaken, the impact is even more direct. Currently, the $2550 area is a key resistance level; if it enters a liquidation-intensive zone, it could further amplify the downward amplitude. Looking further into the middle tier, SOL and ZEC are among those with independent value$AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics): Closed around $113.8 (+0.5%), rising to over $118 in after-hours trading. YTD up more than 220%, 52-week low at $18.5, with a high reaching $233 (in May). Recently pulled back due to a $600 million ATM issuance plan, but Q2 revenue was $192 million (+86% YoY), 800G shipments doubled, Q3 guidance $255-290 million, with a full-year target of about $1.1 billion. Accelerating expansion in Texas, targeting AI data center 1.6T demand, with a year-end capacity goal of 650,000 units per month.
Peer performance:
$LITE (Lumentum) around $939, recently strongly rebounded, clearly benefiting from AI lasers/optical chips, YTD up over 150%.
$COHR (Coherent) around $294, data center business growing rapidly, supported by Nvidia, but with high volatility.
The overall sector is driven by AI computing power optical interconnects (800G→1.6T, CPO), with demand far exceeding capacity, and both Chinese and US supply chains are prosperous. In the short term, watch for dilution from issuance and valuation digestion; mid-to-long term logic remains strong. Focus on expansion implementation! #Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Overnight, the full US July PCE data was released, overall stronger than expected!
PCE year-on-year at 3.7% exceeded market expectations, core PCE year-on-year remained flat at 3.3%, showing no signs of inflation stickiness fading.
Once the data came out, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields both strengthened simultaneously. The market immediately raised the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 42%, bringing back concerns about tightening liquidity. But note, the Fear and Greed Index has already surged to 80, an extreme greed zone, making the risk-reward ratio for chasing $BTC $ETH very poor.
For gold, the data is bearish. London gold briefly fell below $4590 overnight and is now barely stabilizing around $4610. It is difficult for it to rally strongly in the short term; it is more likely to face pressure and fluctuate. Do not blindly chase longs.
Focus on tonight’s official opening of the Jackson Hole annual meeting and tomorrow night’s Powell keynote speech. This is the most important policy guidance window before the September FOMC.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Recently, discussions about Trump-related tokens have become lively again, but behind the hype, there are many signals worth pondering. Some people have shared their short-selling record, speaking with great conviction. Let's break down the information and take a look. The price movement of this token is indeed dramatic. On the day it was listed on exchanges, it surged above $80, then declined steadily over the next year, hitting a low of over $1.3. Recently, due to a piece of false news, the price rebounded from the bottom to nearly $3, making many people think the market had stabilized. But right around $2.9, some traders decisively increased their short positions, even emphasizing their "insight" and believing that coins propped up by sentiment and news have no upper limit to harvesting. At first glance, this sounds reasonable, but on closer inspection, this certainty actually comes with risks. Fake news can instantly drive prices up, indicating market sentiment remains sensitive and funds can exploit the situation at any time. The biggest fear in short selling isn't high prices, but sudden price reversals after all negative news has been released. That trader listed the average price at $2.52, which is indeed much lower than the current price, but only if the price continues to fall as he wishes; otherwise, the floating losses will grow with each rebound. He also posted another short trade, shorting Big Zero Coin, with an average price set at $777. Yesterday, the price dropped from $850, and he breathed a sigh of relief, setting his sights on $650 first, planning to take it step by step. This approach is closer to traditional short selling logic, since Big Zero is an established coin with limited market heat and limited liquidity. But the problem is, the volatility of these coins often depends more on market sentiment, if...$CVX $OKTA
CVX: Current price 2.416, 24h +18.08%, pulled up from 2.28 to 2.491 then retreated, range in the last two hours 2.384—2.457. After a 15-minute spike, volume contracted, fee rate +0.0011%, OI $442,400; more like a pull-up followed by profit-taking, cannot conclude if new longs or short covering. Convex aggregates Curve/Frax liquidity and governance, CVX can be staked for dividends and voting participation. No confirmed recent catalysts, watching 2.384 support and 2.491 volume breakout. Risks include weakening ecosystem fees and thin liquidity spikes.
OKTA: Current price 157.81, 24h +20.86%, intraday 127.35—162.79, after a spike retreated to 153.20—158.64. Fee rate -1.00%, OI $397,900, price rise with extreme negative fee rate looks more like short covering, this is an inference. It tracks Okta Inc. OKX stock perpetual, not a crypto token; the company provides employee, customer, and AI identity security. The company confirmed FY2027 Q2 earnings release on August 26, watch performance, guidance, and US stock spot, cannot attribute this rally to that. Losing 153.20 risks pullback; low OI can amplify slippage. ⚠️
#CVX #OKTA #DeFi #StockPerpetual#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Good morning everyone!
$BTC BTC inflation neither exploded nor declined beyond expectations; rate cut expectations remain delayed, US Treasury yields fluctuate, macro environment is neutral. From inflation data → Fed speeches, ETF fund flows, US crypto policies 82000‑84000 76000‑78000 no unilateral drive, high-level range oscillation; institutional base positions stable, main liquidation from leveraged positions, lacking strong catalysts makes it hard to break new highs directly
$ETH ETH neutral macro cannot offset high interest rate environment; US Treasury yields remain high, staking yields relatively suppressed. Regulatory rulings, L2 value capture ability, ETH/BTC price ratio Benchmark BTC price pressure range Follow BTC support range Mainly follow the overall market; ecosystem narratives have speculative windows but hard to have independent rallies; once turning bearish, retracement larger than BTC
$SOL SOL “Not bad, but not enough to explode,” no macro downside to crash, but no strong liquidity easing dividend either. On-chain hotspots, on-exchange speculative sentiment, overall market risk appetite Previous phase highs Follow strong market support Only suitable for pulse-style short-term trading; insufficient incremental external funds, market relies on internal funds self-circulation; if Fed releases hawkish signals, will be sold off first with largest retracement
Core conclusions
1. After PCE release, macro tail risks temporarily lifted, but incremental positives missing, no longer the main driver of the market.
2. Next market triggers depend on Jackson Hole meeting statements + US crypto-related policies.
3. Risk preference order: BTC (oscillating defense) > ETH (speculative price ratio repair) > SOL (local hotspot speculation, highest risk).
4. In a neutral environment, high elasticity coins should not expect trend-driven rallies, most hotspots are short-term pulses. #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码
The US-Iran drama has a new plot twist: negotiating while fighting, both sides not missing a beat.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold. Short-term sentiment has basically been digested; sanctions didn't trigger a surge in oil prices, and Bitcoin actually fell from 81,000 to around 79,000, giving the market a breather. But digital assets have now been included in the secondary sanctions scope, with on-chain settlements and transactions coming under scrutiny.
In the medium term, uncertainty remains. A temporary corridor is still just temporary, and sanctions are intensifying. Ships can pass, but whether the oil can be sold or the money recovered is a completely different matter. Iran still holds the Strait card; if really hurt, it’s not impossible for them to retaliate by blocking it.
Here’s my take: Iran signing the agreement is about regaining the initiative, not conceding. The US is ramping up sanctions, Iran is using the Strait as leverage, and these two forces are tugging at oil prices. Short-term market sentiment is relatively stable, but the real turning point will be the CLARITY Act vote on September 15, so patience is key.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE In the current context of liquidity shortage, the "two-way kill by market makers" is an inevitable choice for stock game and market makers (including major players) to obtain liquidity and profits. The upcoming 2026 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting this Friday will directly determine the subsequent lifeline of funds in the crypto circle by releasing signals on macro monetary policy and financial innovation.
1. Why do market makers go crazy with "back-and-forth kills" when liquidity shrinks? As you have observed, the average daily spot trading volume and liquidity in the crypto circle in 2026 have indeed dropped significantly compared to the peak in 2025 (in some phases shrinking by nearly 30% to 70%). During the liquidity drought period of "lack of money and new retail investors," the behavior logic of major players has fundamentally changed.
From "following trends" to "cutting stock": In the 2025 bull market, funds were abundant, and major players attracted external funds to take over by pushing up coin prices (making money from trends). In 2026, due to the lack of external incremental funds, the market has become a zero-sum or even negative-sum game. Major players cannot launch unilateral big moves and can only repeatedly spike within key oscillation ranges (such as Ethereum ETH around $2500) to harvest contract positions of long and short leverage inside the market (making money from fees and liquidation orders).
Using the "liquidity black hole" for precise blasts: $2500 is currently an important psychological and technical dense defense level for ETH. Because of poor liquidity, the market's order book depth is very thin. This means major players only need to use much less capital than before to easily smash the price up or down by hundreds of points in "spike" moves.
The "two-way kill" mechanism to lure the enemy in: When ETH falls below 2500, retail investors panic to short or stop loss on longs, and major players absorb liquidity by buying at the bottom, then quickly pull back. When ETH rises above 2500, retail investors aggressively chase longs or get liquidated on shorts, and major players short at the high and smash the price down. The essence of this back-and-forth wash is not about direction but to eliminate high leverage and force retail investors to surrender bloodied chips.
The globally watched 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held from August 27 to 29. This year's theme is very special—"Financial Innovation: Impact on Payments and Policy."
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver a heavyweight keynote speech Friday morning, which will cause shocks in two major dimensions in the circle:
1. Expectations for changes in the "main gate" of macro liquidity (conventional core) interest rates and inflation tone: The market is extremely sensitive to the Fed's interest rate path. If Warsh shows a dovish stance in Friday's speech (implying accelerated rate cuts and liquidity release in the future), it will directly benefit risk assets, and the crypto circle may take this opportunity to firmly hold Ethereum $2500 and launch an upward breakthrough.
If hawkish or ambiguous: If signals are released that inflation remains sticky and high rates must be maintained, the already dry financial market liquidity will be further drained, and the crypto circle may face a new round of slow decline or severe crash due to "bleeding."
Policy tone and compliance catalyst: The newly appointed Warsh himself has deep ties in blockchain and DeFi fields (his public investment portfolio included multiple crypto protocols). The market highly expects him to mention the regulatory direction of US stablecoin legislation (such as the advancement of the GENIUS Act) in Friday's speech.
Signal for compliant funds entering: If the meeting releases favorable policy defenses for programmable dollars or compliant stablecoins, it will introduce a continuous influx of traditional financial institutional giants into the currently depleted crypto circle (such as large US banks entering stablecoin issuance). This is often the only solution to end the current "stock two-way kill" adverse situation. $ETH $BTC
In short, not gambling is winning.The stronger Nvidia's earnings report, the more AI trading enters a "nitpicking stage"
In the past, the market only needed one phrase: demand explosion. Now that's no longer enough. Revenue beating expectations, strong orders, and continued growth in data centers—these have all been anticipated. What truly affects valuation are the less glamorous details like gross margin, memory costs, customer concentration, and capital expenditure returns.
Marvell is also under scrutiny because it represents another layer of the AI infrastructure answer: custom chips, networking, and data center connectivity—can it spread Nvidia's momentum across a broader industry chain?
The harshest aspect of this AI cycle is that even good news is being dissected and questioned. The market no longer just listens to stories; it starts asking: when will the money spent turn into real cash back?
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Core PCE is flat; the most frustrating thing is not that inflation hasn't exploded, but that it is stuck like this.
The market actually fears this kind of data the most: it's not bad enough to force the Fed to act immediately, nor good enough to let risk assets celebrate freely. Core inflation is still clearly above target, and the GDP revision shows the economy isn't that weak, so at Jackson Hole, Walsh can't just say "rate cuts are coming soon."
For assets like BTC, what matters most isn't a single month's data, but whether the policy path has become clear. The awkward situation now is: inflation persists, growth hasn't collapsed, and the bond market is not convinced.
So this time, I'm more concerned about how he sets the tone. If he continues to be vague, the market will keep guessing on its own, and one wrong guess will cause a round of volatility.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #PCEToJacksonHole July core PCE came in exactly as expected: 3.3% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Inflation didn’t accelerate, but it also didn’t give the Fed much reason to relax 😮💨
At the same time, Q2 GDP growth held at just 1.5% annualized. That combination feels awkward—price pressures remain above target while growth is already losing momentum.
What caught my attention is that September hike odds still edged higher. The data itself wasn’t especially hawkish, but without a clearer policy framework, markets seem to be treating uncertainty as a reason for caution 📊
That makes Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks on Friday more important than usual. I’m less interested in whether he sounds “hawkish” or “dovish” and more interested in how he weighs inflation against weaker growth and jobs.
Right now, the numbers support patience—but they don’t make the decision easy.#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
The Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chair are each playing their own tune. How will this tug-of-war between debt and inflation ultimately play out?
Besant is conducting long-term bond buybacks at the Treasury, aiming to pull down the soaring US Treasury yields, while the Fed under Waugh insists on respecting market pricing and firmly fighting inflation.
Faced with a US Treasury market stockpile worth tens of trillions of dollars, an additional quarterly buyback of billions is nothing more than a drop in the bucket. Using a mechanism originally meant to supplement liquidity for price intervention exacerbates the risk of borrowing short and lending long. If inflation forces the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the Treasury's interest costs will actually soar even faster.
Waugh's Achilles' heel: credibility and signaling
Waugh advocates letting the market price autonomously. If the Treasury forcibly intervenes, market signals get distorted, making it difficult for the Fed to make decisions.
If Waugh compromises with the administration, the market will perceive the Fed as losing its independence, demanding higher risk premiums and pushing up long-term rates. If he insists on a hawkish stance against inflation, it will directly undermine the Treasury's position.
Market outlook
Fiscal intervention will quickly lose effectiveness.
Without deficit reduction, any buying intervention will be overwhelmed by market selling pressure.
Waugh will play Tai Chi.
In his Jackson Hole speech, he will likely reaffirm the anti-inflation stance to preserve credibility, shifting the pressure to cut rates back to fiscal budget cuts.
Hard assets continue to rally.
Gold and cryptocurrencies are strengthening, reflecting capital betting on currency depreciation and fiscal mismanagement. As long as inflation doesn't come down, this awkward tug-of-war between the central bank and the Treasury will persist. BTC is repeatedly bouncing around $78,770, with the overall market cap stabilizing at $2.73 trillion. This position is critical because it is stuck in a sensitive zone where bulls and bears intersect. Above, a large number of short liquidation orders have accumulated in the 80,000 to 81,500 range. If volume surges above $80,000, it could trigger a round of bear squeeze, driving price momentum upward. Below, between 77,000 and 79,000, dense long leveraged positions lie underway. If the $78,000 support is breached, those high-leverage buyers may face concentrated liquidations, and the decline could actually outpace the rise. Therefore, the current narrow range between 78,000 and 79,000 has become the real battleground for bulls and bears. 🪑 The direct driver of the rebound in risk appetite is the rapid cooling of geopolitical tensions. According to Russian media reports, the U.S. and Iran are expected to resume negotiations, with both sides reaching preliminary consensus on key ceasefire terms, which may be officially announced in the coming days. After the news broke, the market's pricing of geopolitical risks was significantly lowered, with crude oil prices dropping nearly 2% to $80.47 per barrel. The decline in oil prices is usually seen as a signal of easing inflationary pressures, which also provides emotional support for risk assets. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks strengthened across the board, with crypto-related stocks performing particularly well. Robinhood rose over 8% in a single day, indicating capital interest in high-risk assetsNVIDIA's “Sweet Problem” — It's not that products can't be sold, it's that there aren't enough products to sell
On the recent earnings night, NVIDIA experienced a rollercoaster.
After-hours, the stock once dropped 3%, then instantly surged 5%.
What happened? It wasn't a bad earnings report — Q2 revenue was $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year, with accelerated growth for four consecutive quarters.
It was CFO Colette Kress who ignited the market with one sentence during the call —
"Fiscal 2028 revenue growth of about 70%."
Previously, analysts expected only 44%.
But even more explosive was the next sentence: "Customer forecasts show growth will double next year."
To translate: customers want 100% of the products, but NVIDIA can only supply 70%.
A 30% demand gap corresponds to about a $200 billion revenue shortfall.
Jensen Huang added: "Without supply constraints, the outlook would be much higher."
This is not a demand issue; it's a capacity issue.
Why is supply so tight? Three reasons:
First, memory prices have gone crazy.
NVIDIA is facing an "extreme high memory price" situation. Compared to the previous generation, Vera Rubin's overall cost rose 2.1 times, with memory costs soaring 2.5 times. The HBM4 memory on a Rubin GPU costs as much as $4,943, accounting for 53.4% of the chip cost.
Global HBM capacity is almost monopolized by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The entire 2026 HBM capacity has been bought out by customers, with core customers even locked in through 2028.
Jensen Huang already warned in June in South Korea: memory shortages are not short-term fluctuations but a structural industry dilemma lasting years.
Second, Vera Rubin is fully ramped up, but the entire supply chain is running at full capacity.
Vera Rubin began production and shipment in early August. Huang said this is NVIDIA's "fastest product ramp in history."
But the problem is — everyone is running at full throttle. It's not a single bottleneck; the entire chain is under pressure.
Third, the CFO personally confirmed: supply will remain a bottleneck at least through fiscal 2028.
Not next quarter, not next year — a full two years.
What investment opportunities does this represent?
Memory chip suppliers are the biggest winners.
SanDisk, SK Hynix, Micron — whoever controls HBM capacity holds pricing power.
NVIDIA itself has already spent $145 billion locking in the supply chain. In this industry where "a shortage of one component can disrupt production," those who can lock in supply early are the ultimate winners.
Any technology that can alleviate the memory bottleneck — such as HBF — will command a premium.
NVIDIA's "problem" is the kind every CEO in the world wishes to have —
Not that products can't be sold, but that there aren't enough products to sell.
$SNDK $SKHY $NVDA #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 On the same night, Jensen Huang said "demand doubled," while Burry said "bubble peak" — who do you believe?
Last night after the US stock market closed, two magical things happened.
First, Nvidia released its earnings report.
Quarterly revenue was 96.2 billion USD, doubling year-over-year. After hours, the stock price went from down 3% to up 5%. Jensen Huang stood on stage and said: We have never given guidance a year in advance, but we are confident in 70% growth for fiscal year 2028.
Then he added — "The real demand growth rate far exceeds 100%, 70% is just the result of supply constraints."
To translate: it’s not that no one is buying, it’s that I can’t produce enough.
AWS has already confirmed deploying 2 million new GPUs in 2027-2028. The top five customers’ capital expenditures jumped from 800 billion to 1.3 trillion.
On the demand side, it’s truly crazy.
Second, on the same day, "big short" Michael Burry disclosed his positions.
He bought Nvidia call options as a hedge while increasing his short position on Nvidia. He also increased shorts on Oracle, Palantir, Nebius, and Caterpillar.
Burry’s short stock positions exceed 21% of his portfolio, not counting deep out-of-the-money put options.
He said: Nvidia’s "theoretical valuation is far below the current market price," and AI profit contraction could be "shocking."
So here’s the question: on the same night, two of the smartest people gave completely opposite answers.
Jensen Huang says demand doubled — Burry says bubble peak.
Jensen Huang says the AI inflection point has arrived — Burry says this is no different from the 2000 internet bubble.
Who is right?
My judgment is — both are right.
Jensen Huang is looking at a 12-24 month demand explosion. AWS’s orders are there, customers’ money has already been transferred, this is not wishful thinking.
Burry is looking at a 3-5 year profit margin reversion. Nvidia’s top five customers account for 70% of accounts receivable, concentration risk is indeed rising. Monopoly rents can’t last forever.
One is saying "how good it is now," the other is reminding "there is always risk."
Isn’t this the eternal debate in the BTC market?
"Institutions are buying, ETFs are flowing in" — true.
"Post-halving miner sell pressure, macro uncertainty" — also true.
Both narratives can coexist; the key is your holding period.
Day traders listen to Jensen Huang, monthly traders listen to Burry.
Mature investors listen to both.
$BTC $xNVDA #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 NVIDIA's Q2 earnings report has reignited the AI fire.
Revenue doubled year-over-year to $96.2 billion, net profit reached $59.7 billion, with a gross margin of 75%. The data center alone generated $89 billion. Even more impressive, NVIDIA provided its first-ever guidance of 70% growth for fiscal year 2028, and Q3 revenue is directly guided to hit $100 billion. Jensen Huang said, "AI has reached a turning point and is doing useful work."
But don't just look at NVIDIA taking the lion's share; the real signal from this earnings season is that AI has moved from "storytelling" to "accounting period."
Google Cloud revenue grew 82%, Microsoft Azure up 43%, and Anthropic turned profitable for the first time—AI is starting to generate returns. On the other hand, the giants' free cash flow is collectively under pressure: Alphabet's quarterly CapEx is $44.9 billion, Tencent's $52.8 billion surged 176% year-over-year, Alibaba $67.7 billion, and Amazon has had negative free cash flow of $7.6 billion for 12 consecutive months. Money has been poured in, but when will it pay off? Alibaba says 3 years, maybe even 2.
Personal view: NVIDIA selling the shovels is the safest bet; but the cloud providers buying the shovels are already diverging. Google Cloud and Azure are realizing returns, while domestic providers are still in the money-burning phase, so don't treat them all the same. The AI application layer is just getting started; Anthropic's profitability shows large models can make money, but most applications are still burning cash. The next few quarters will be a real test.
In the short term, the AI computing power chain still has momentum. In the medium to long term, the real winners are companies that can turn computing power into revenue. Those who just burn money without delivering returns will eventually be abandoned by the market #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Today, an interesting market structure emerged: BTC was still trading sideways at $79,000, but SOL had regained the $100 level, and ETH had broken through $2,500 again. Among the three confirmation conditions I focused on yesterday, SOL has completed its first recovery, but BTC has yet to hold above $80,000, and ETF growth has clearly slowed. So today's core is not a "bull market restart," but rather: funds have started trying high beta rotation again, but BTC has yet to confirm a breakout. 1️⃣ 🚀 SOL has climbed back above $100 and once again become the leading mainstream coin gainer As of 09:29 HKT: BTC:$78,910|+0.22%
ETH：$2,502.39｜+2.00%
SOL: $101.59 | +4.94% Fear and Greed Index: 71 | Greed Yesterday, SOL fell back below $100 at a low of about $97; Today it has rebounded to: $101.59, which means the $100–102 points that were closely watched yesterday have re-entered the contest. This is a positive signal for SOL. Because if the breakout above $100 completely fails, normally one should continue to look for support at $94 or even $90. But the actual trend is: 101.9 → 97.2 → 101.6, indicating there is indeed capital support near $100. However, the final step is still needed: can it truly hold above $102? For example$OKB: This wave is not an ordinary rebound but also not suitable for chasing
OKB is currently priced around $112, with a slight 24H pullback, still up about 9.4% over 7 days; more importantly, the past 24H trading volume is about $30M, while the perpetual open interest (OI) is about $30.6M, indicating that leverage has clearly participated but has not yet reached an extremely crowded level.
Looking at the broader market, BTC is currently around $78.9K, up 13.6% over 7 days, having once surged to $81K; OKB's recent rise has obvious market beta support.
OKB's biggest trump card remains its fixed supply of 21 million tokens. After a large-scale burn of 65 million tokens last year, the scarcity logic has completely changed.
My judgment: moderately bullish in the mid-term, wait for a pullback in the short term. $110 is the first support; breaking below $105 turns bearish; $118–120 is resistance, only a breakout with volume gives a chance to continue rising. The cost-performance ratio for chasing the rally now is average; holding is fine, but if you want to add positions, wait around $108–110. If BTC falls back below $78K and OKB breaks below $105, this judgment must be reconsidered.[Crypto News] Bitcoin returns to the $80,000 mark, with the "buy gold and Bitcoin together" trend unfolding.
Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have collectively attracted about $7 billion in inflows, setting a record. The trigger was U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's announcement to expand long-term Treasury repurchases, reigniting the "currency devaluation trade" logic. Gold broke through $4,600 per ounce, and Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000.
BTC is currently fluctuating around $78,700, with a cumulative 7-day gain close to 13%. CryptoQuant's bull market score surged from 30 to 80 within a week, with 8 out of 10 indicators bullish; from August 17 to 21, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $1.92 billion. However, the Fear & Greed Index has reached 81, indicating extreme greed, and combined with the July U.S. PCE data release pushing the September rate hike probability to about 42%, short-term correction risks are rising. The $80,000–$83,000 range is a critical watershed.
On regulation, the SEC submitted a new digital asset custody rule proposal to the White House for review on August 25, aiming to clarify the crypto custody framework for investment advisors and investment companies; the Thai SEC is also soliciting feedback on a crypto ETF draft, initially including only Bitcoin and Ethereum.
With extreme greed and rising rate hike expectations, will you chase at this level or wait for a pullback?