Orbit Post Sitemap
Can a trading novice who knows nothing achieve stable profits in the market? I will show you with 100 real trades.
No need to chew on obscure theories, no need to study complicated indicators every day.
You just need to build a simple, personalized set of trading rules: when to enter, how much to take profit, how much loss requires exit, and order position size. The rules don’t need to be complex, just understandable and executable. (Trading strategy at the end of the article)
Today is the fifth trade of the spcx opening strategy.
The market gave the short position a 2:1 risk-reward opportunity, and the short position successfully took profit. As for whether the market will continue to fall or if there will be a big missed opportunity later, I don’t care; I only take the profits within my own trading strategy!
I will use several common market trading strategies to execute 100 real trades, no mysticism, no hype about huge profits, no hindsight bias. No need to chew on complex theories, no market trend predictions, just stick to fixed rules: entry conditions, take profit, stop loss, and position size all predetermined. Every trade is fully recorded, every profit and loss is shown truthfully. No reliance on one-time big wins, only looking at whether the strategy can produce positive results over the long term. As long as it can generate stable profits, anyone can replicate it.
Detailed strategy:
Only trade within the first four hours of the US stock market open, determine highs and lows based on 15-minute candlesticks before and after the open, enter when price breaks out, go long on a breakout above the high, short on a breakout below the low. Stop loss is set at the breakout candlestick’s high or low; if the stop loss is too tight, set it at the previous candlestick’s high or low. Risk-reward ratio is 1-2 times.
spcx is highly popular, with sufficient liquidity during opening hours and large volatility, making it a very good breakout trading target.
The market always has uncertainty; no strategy can guarantee profits forever. Even the best trading systems will encounter losing trades. What makes the difference is whether ordinary people can control their impulses and consistently follow their own rules.
$BTC $SPCX $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Summary in one sentence: Countries that ban cryptocurrencies mostly do not "collapse," but generally fail to completely ban cryptocurrencies; the result is "the disappearance of the open market, the growth of underground/P2P/stablecoin markets," expanding regulatory blind spots, and many countries later shifting from bans to licensed regulation. 1. Four typical outcomes 1. China: Financial system is completely cut off, but demand shifts underground/overseas - In 2021, exchanges were cleared out, trading was banned, and mining was phased out. - Goal achieved: The banking system, household savings, and power grid resources are no longer directly tied to highly volatile crypto speculation. - Cost: Trading moved to overseas platforms, USDT/stablecoin P2P, Hong Kong/offshore channels; retail investors find it difficult to protect their rights, and fraud and cross-border money laundering become harder to track. - Industry side: China-background teams like Binance and OKX went overseas; the domestic market missed the native CEX/stablecoin track but gained the digital RMB and Hong Kong compliance testing ground. - Conclusion: National financial security benefits are obvious, individual investor protection weakens, and industry spills over. 2. Nigeria: Ban failed, returned to licensing after 5 years - In 2021, the central bank prohibited banks from servicing crypto exchanges. - Result: Naira devaluation + inflation, people wanted USDT more; the market shifted from exchanges to P2P, OTC, and Telegram trading. - IMF later clearly stated: bans alone don’t work, leading to "digital dollarization" + regulatory black holes. - Around 2026, shifted to virtual asset regulatory framework and regulatory sandbox. - Conclusion: BanThanks to the market for giving me a V-shaped recovery, otherwise I would have been eating dirt today. Let's talk about my positions in BTC, ETH, SOL, and OKB:
Today, the four brothers I hold all took a hit, but who is the main decliner and who is affected by sentiment can still be seen from the on-chain capital flows:
1. $BTC is the most resilient, with the cleanest on-chain capital. Although the ETF redeemed $450 million, whales took advantage of the big drop to buy 15,000 coins, so BTC's mid-term trend will be very strong.
Also, 81,000 is a strong support level at BTC's 400-day moving average, and every pullback quickly rebounds. From a long-term perspective, BTC is also in a consolidating upward trend.
2. $ETH is the weakest, with ETF net outflows for 8 consecutive days, totaling $640 million. The capital side is too weak to hold.
Moreover, the selling pressure of 4,393 coins transferred from the EF wallet to Kraken remains suspicious, and 2,200 is a critical hard support level below.
3. SOL fell the hardest, mainly due to a $120 million short position on Hyperliquid. The ETF side only saw outflows of over $3 million, so the impact is minor. This token is being suppressed by derivatives sentiment, not by spot money running away.
4. $OKB followed the decline, but its fundamentals are very good: X Layer has integrated xStocks, plans to pursue SEC exemption for 63 US stock tokens, and with deflationary burns, the mid-term position is sustainable.
This kind of follow-the-fall decline can turn into an independent rally at any time, so holders with chips should hold tight!"$CORE The circulating supply you observed decreased by 81 million tokens. Based on public information, this is very likely due to the excess tokens burned during the hard fork in early September, which have now been updated and included in the data platform's statistics, rather than a new burn operation by the project team in October. 🔍 Why did the circulating supply decrease by 81 million? Your screenshot shows the circulating supply dropping from about 1.5 billion to 1.479 billion, a decrease of approximately 81 million tokens. This is directly related to the previous v1.0.26 hard fork event: · September 3 hard fork: Core DAO permanently burned over 150 million excess CORE tokens at the protocol level. · Data update lag: The hard fork occurred in early September, but data platforms (such as OKX) had delayed updates to circulating supply statistics. The 1.5 billion you saw earlier was likely pre-burn outdated data; the current 1.479 billion reflects the latest statistics after deducting the burned tokens. · Not a new burn: The "circulation rate of 70.45%" and the 81 million change you mentioned reflect the burn that occurred in September being re-accounted for, not a new action by the project team in October. 🧐 Did the project team perform new burns in October? No. Since the October 1 announcement about "gradually handing over block production roles to independent validators," there have been no new updates on the official Twitter. The circulating supply changes you see are statistical updates of historical events, not new burn announcements. 🤔 Why has the project team been "silent"? The October 1 statement essentially is a#贝莱德转向超配短债，下调美股评级
$BLK underweights U.S. Treasuries for six years, but this time it has reversed.
▪️ Short-term U.S. Treasuries rating upgraded to overweight, long-term U.S. Treasuries raised from underweight to neutral
▪️ When first underweighted in October 2020, the 10-year yield was about 0.9%; now it is above 5.2%
▪️ U.S. equities rating downgraded from overweight to neutral, agency MBS also downgraded to neutral
▪️ The report believes the market's bets on Fed rate hikes are already too high
▪️ Interest rate swaps show traders expect at least three 25bp hikes in the next 12 months
The divergence is not about whether BlackRock is bullish on U.S. stocks, but that it is doing two things simultaneously: locking in yields and avoiding volatility.
In the same report, the short end is favored because yields have reached a "lock-in" level, while the reason for downgrading U.S. stocks is the "potential volatility brought by AI development." It clearly states it does not mean bearish on AI, just managing near-term risk — but this statement itself highlights the divergence: AI capital expenditure is increasing, financing costs are high, and whether companies can generate returns above capital costs is becoming a screening criterion.
The direction is to wait and see — if rate hike expectations cool down, short-term bonds benefit; if expectations strengthen again, this allocation will need to be reassessed. Something happened in the Strait of Hormuz, so why is $BTC also suffering?
Originally, I thought that when a geopolitical conflict breaks out, Bitcoin could at least benefit a bit from its "digital gold" status. But this time, the intense attacks in the Strait of Hormuz actually slapped it down.
To be honest: this round of crisis is bearish for the crypto market, not bullish.
The logic is actually simple——
When the strait is attacked, oil prices rise. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations return. When inflation returns, the Federal Reserve won't dare to cut interest rates easily. When U.S. Treasury yields rise, assets like Bitcoin that generate no interest naturally get sold off first.
A few data points illustrate the issue:
During the days of escalating attacks, Bitcoin once fell below $81,000, dropping nearly 4% in a week. Ethereum and other major coins fell even harder.
More dramatically, nearly $970 million was liquidated within 24 hours, of which $644 million were long positions. Leveraged funds fled faster than anyone else.
The most ironic thing is that during the most tense moments, gold and Bitcoin both fell together. The term "digital gold" temporarily doesn't hold up in the face of real inflation-driven geopolitical shocks.
So what should we watch next?
Don't just focus on the news headlines; focus on these two more practical things:
First, whether Brent crude oil prices can fall back below $100;
Second, whether the Federal Reserve will be forced to continue tightening because of oil prices.
Once oil prices ease, the macro pressure on Bitcoin will lighten considerably.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $ETH funding rate just turned negative. The total open interest across the network has dropped from daytime levels, down more than 4% in 24 hours. On the 15-minute chart, a bullish engulfing candle formed with significantly increased volume. Price rebounded upward but open interest continued to shrink; the total volume did not expand during the bulls' rally.
The rebound accompanied by declining open interest indicates that the move up was mainly driven by short covering. Sell orders pushing price down are decreasing, and there is a lack of new short positions pressuring the market. Negative funding rate combined with shrinking open interest shows that although bearish sentiment is strong, actual selling pressure on the market has eased and price is not continuing to crash.
Looking at the bigger timeframe, the current price is exactly at the 4-hour support near 2520. The daily EMA lines are smoothly expanding upward from bottom to top, maintaining an overall uptrend. During today's dip, the price slowed down after hitting the 4-hour support. This candle closed without breaking the support, and buy orders at the bottom absorbed this pullback.
For the outlook, I lean bullish. The major 4-hour support below is holding well, the bearish selling pressure has mostly been consumed, and I expect a corrective upward move.
$BTC $SOL #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Looking at the wallet data left me speechless for a long time.
$ZEC currently has the top four addresses holding about 79% of the chips, which means this — all the remaining people in the market still watching this coin and guessing to make a profit are basically fighting over these leftover crumbs. If this data were on any new coin, I wouldn’t even glance twice. Everyone talks about whales controlling the market every day, but when it comes to an old-timer like ZEC that’s been around for years, the feeling is different, like someone quietly cleaned the table.
Look at how it’s dropped 11.6% over the past 7 days, and the short-term price has also been smashed down to around 1199. Doesn’t it look like a bunch of scared folks are rushing to run before it’s completely dead? Then look at the daily chart — it kind of looks like a shallow pit has been dug all the way down. I’m not telling you to believe in this "double bottom"; analyzing this is even fuzzier than fishing, with more people wrong than right. $ZEC SNDK previously said the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. Changxin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "the rise of Chinese chips," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."
SanDisk's fundamentals are fine—the NAND supply-demand gap won't peak until Q1 2028. But the stock price is reflecting the "worst-case scenario" in advance. 1450 is short-term support; if it breaks, look at 1200.
For those holding positions, if 1450 doesn't break, just hold on.To start with the conclusion: The price of $SKDD and the contract positions are telling two different stories right now.
In the past 24 hours, it has risen from 8.5 to 9.9, an increase of about 15%, while 239 perpetual contracts across the market have been falling during the same period. But if you look at the funding rate: -0.28%, meaning shorts are paying longs.
What does this number mean? The funding rate is the "seat fee" between longs and shorts on perpetual contracts, settled every 8 hours, with a baseline of 0.01%. -0.28% is 28 times the baseline. If shorts hold continuously at this level for a month, they will cumulatively pay about 8% — shorts are literally burning money.
Two possibilities: one, the contract side believes this rally can't hold and keeps shorting to hedge; two, shorts are trapped inside, floating losses are growing, and the risk of a short squeeze from forced liquidations is accumulating. Which is true, the candlestick chart will tell you. But one thing is certain now: the price is rising, yet the contract side remains net short.
A word to those using leverage: if you don't understand the funding rate, don't lightly open shorts on "rising days." Opening shorts on rising days means you are the one paying the rent.
$SKDD
Do you think the shorts will hold until 10, or will they be squeezed out first?Tonight marks the start of the Q3 earnings season, with the Big Four banks reporting first, and their results are diverging. Goldman Sachs posted net revenue of 18.68 billion, up more than 20% year-over-year, with stock trading surging 72%, exceeding expectations; JPMorgan Chase's revenue of 50.91 billion fell short of expectations, dropping 2% in pre-market; Citigroup's profits increased by 40%, while Wells Fargo's 21.87 billion was below expectations. One sweet, one salty—bank stocks are likely to split at tonight's open.
The real focus is the US September CPI report at 8:30 PM tomorrow. The market expects the overall year-over-year rate to rise from 3.4% to around 3.6%, mainly driven by oil prices; core inflation expectations remain mostly unchanged. If the core softens a bit, long-term interest rates can ease; if it hardens, bets on rate hikes will resume.
In crypto, outflows are tightening: last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $679 million, the largest week since late June, and Ethereum about $542 million. Meanwhile, the S&P hit new highs, but crypto didn't keep up—there, corporate earnings are supporting prices; here, it's reliant on new money inflows, so any tightening reveals the difference.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering between 5.19 and 5.24 at high levels. Watch two key points: if the 30-year breaks 5.64, tension rises; Bitcoin can't break above 82,500, and buying pressure hasn't returned.
Before a long trip, I usually fill up the tank and review the route once, then don't touch it. Road conditions are unpredictable; the only thing you can prepare is fuel. Just jotting this down as a personal note, not investment advice. It can be proven that Maji likely used algorithmic trading. Maji, who was supposed to be liquidated at 2490, saw the liquidation price drop to 2396 as the market declined, narrowly avoiding liquidation once again. It can be concluded that the chance of him being directly liquidated is extremely low. The only scenario that could cause liquidation is a market that slowly rises and then suddenly crashes. This would cause Maji to add positions during the rise and cut losses during the fall, continuously eroding the principal.$ARB
Arbitrum’s challenge is turning its Layer-2 infrastructure into lasting economic activity. More applications can attract users, but raw transaction counts do not tell the whole story. Fees, liquidity, active users, and competition from other scaling networks all matter. Another important distinction: growth across Arbitrum does not automatically mean equal demand for the ARB token.#俄美推进柴油供应合作，俄乌能源停火仍存分歧
The boss has something to say
Russia and the US are advancing cooperation on diesel supply. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak confirmed that energy departments and companies from both sides are in talks, and Russia has partially lifted diesel export restrictions. The US has also warned Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refining facilities, or it may affect weapons and intelligence support.
However, the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire has not been implemented yet. Trump announced it, but both sides have not jointly confirmed it. Ukraine says Russia is still attacking its energy facilities. The agreement was just announced, but the details have not been finalized.
For the market, increased diesel supply is positive and can suppress refined oil prices. But the energy ceasefire is still uncertain, and the Middle East is also unsettled, so oil prices won't drop in the short term. Today, CL rose 0.38%, BZ fell 0.12%, showing a muted reaction.
I still hold over 82,800 long contracts on BTC, with a stop loss at 81,500 and a target of 86,000. I won't bet on a single direction before the CPI release. ETFs saw a total outflow of 1.2 billion last week, the 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.7%, and macro conditions haven't eased. The longs are short-term plays for a rebound, and I'll reduce positions once the target is reached.
The Russia-US diesel cooperation is a variable, not a direction. Watch the details, not the headlines. Don't chase the rise or kill the dip; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC CPI/PPI are coming, the crypto circle awaits the whistle (｀・ω・´)
This week's crypto market script is almost entirely bet on the CPI and PPI on the 14th. Previously, the Fed minutes were hawkish, hinting at possible rate hikes by year-end; but the nonfarm payrolls and PCE were soft, pushing the October rate hike probability down to about 18%. Don't be quick to relax, the earlier inflation decline hides statistical adjustments, the hawks have not left the stage (￣﹏￣)
This round of data is a short-term watershed. If oil prices raise overall inflation but core inflation cools moderately, expectations to pause rate hikes in October will dominate, $BTC could surge to 87200, $ETH could recover to 2560-2650 (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Conversely, if core inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, rate hike trades will quickly return, US Treasury yields will rise, and crypto prices will be under pressure: BTC may fall back to 80000-81300, ETH could drop below 2470 and test 2370 (｡•́︿•̀｡)
Retail and initial jobless claims can serve as auxiliary indicators to observe economic strength and policy clues. Don't go all in before the data, keep an eye on BTC 84100 and ETH 2560 as key levels, and wait for clear direction before acting~ (￣▽￣)~*#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% If the US stock market officially launches 23-hour trading on weekdays this December, the liquidity of altcoins may further decrease, and many altcoins will go to zero in the future. Therefore, before December is the golden window for junk altcoin pump-and-dump by manipulators to lucky buyers. For me personally, besides allocating a few particularly promising bluechip altcoins, I will also allocate part of my position to $CRCL and $COIN stocks. In the future, the returns of these two coin stocksBitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Cost Basis stands at $73.3K, with BTC trading around 13% above it, meaning recent buyers are currently in profit.
During the 2023 and 2024 uptrends, Bitcoin stayed above this level for months. A drop below it could push recent buyers back into losses, similar to much of the first half of 2026.
#SepCPIHikeWatch #TSMCOct15Earnings #KOSPIDropsOver6% $APT Observation: APT's attempt to reach 1 failed, unlocking completed becomes an excuse to sell
APT surged from 0.69 approaching 1 dollar, but instantly crashed back to 0.82.
News says the initial token unlock for core contributors and investors was fully completed yesterday.
Logically, the release of selling pressure should be a long-term positive, but the market interprets it the opposite way.
Early investors who have waited four years finally fully unlocked; seeing the surge, if not cashing out now, then when? The so-called positive news directly turned into a smokescreen for selling.
Now the market is still waiting for CPI guidance, and off-market funds are tight. Without fresh support, the solo attempt to reach 1 failed, and it can only roll back into the mud with the overall market.
This roller coaster is more thrilling for spectators than for the riders.$ZK Bullish News: ZK rallies against the trend, adding fuel to the ecosystem applications
In a market full of green, ZK sharply pulled up with a big bullish candle of over 8 points, jumping directly from 0.0139 to 0.0165, which is indeed eye-catching.
The news reason given is that Rain Wallet now supports 12 chains including ZKsync.
Actually, this isn't a huge bullish catalyst, but in this current low-volume vacuum period waiting for CPI, even a small ecosystem expansion can become an excuse for speculative traders to band together and hype.
Plus, after a deep drop, even a little capital can leverage a rebound.
But looking at the bigger picture, BTC is still stuck around 83,000, ETH is struggling at 2,500, and the shadow of the Korean stock market crash hasn't lifted yet.
Without volume support from the broader market, a solo rally is most likely just funds shifting pockets within the market.
Such counter-trend rallies are best just observed; don't get easily hooked in.TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high, why should the crypto world care?📈
TSMC's Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, up 50% year-on-year, with the full financial report due on October 15.
You're probably wondering: what does this have to do with the crypto world?
It's a big deal. Today BTC dropped to 81772, triggered by an AI scare: South Korean chip stocks crashed, BTC followed the AI narrative, the Nasdaq sneezed, and BTC caught a cold.
So TSMC's financial report is the "money detector" for AI bulls. The 50% revenue growth is already confirmed; on October 15, we'll see if profits keep up and if the gross margin holds.
If the report beats expectations and the earnings call signals strong demand, it will extend the AI narrative's life. BTC and other high-beta assets that were wrongly punished today can recover.
Looking at BTC, it just turned green; ETH is still weak. The BTC 13/34-week EMA golden cross formed on October 12, the first in three and a half years, indicating a bottom.
But don't pop the champagne yet. October 15 is a double whammy day: TSMC's report and PPI on the same day. If the report disappoints and PPI exceeds expectations, BTC might get pushed back down.
Strategy: don't act before the report.
On October 15, watch for two things:
① What the earnings call says about demand;
② The PPI figures.
If both are good, and BTC breaks above 84000, I'll add; if one disappoints, stay cautious.
In short, the crypto world is now a shadow of the US stock AI trade. This mirror's answer will be revealed on October 15.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 Microsoft launches self-developed Maia 300 AI inference chip, news drives stock price surge to a new annual high. This new product focuses on long context and AI agent inference scenarios, with energy efficiency about 40% higher than current mainstream GPUs. It is planned to enter multi-gigawatt large-scale deployment starting in 2027, aiming to gradually make the Maia series the main computing power for businesses like Copilot, reducing long-term reliance on external GPU vendors and diluting AI cloud service costs. Key point: Maia 300 focuses on inference, not a training chip, and will not directly replace high-end GPUs used for large model training in the short term. The impact on NVIDIA is more of a long-term expectation; short-term order patterns remain unchanged. The market is willing to give Microsoft a premium, recognizing its integration of "model + cloud + self-developed chip," with AI business profitability expected to continue rising. Market differentiation impact: Positive for Microsoft itself, but as a narrative of computing power autonomy, it tends to suppress third-party GPU and HBM-related stocks, which is also the reason for recent differentiation within the semiconductor sector. The Nasdaq tech sentiment recovery will indirectly support high-beta assets like BTC, ETH, etc., but this is sentiment-driven and limited in strength. Follow-up focus: Maia 300 deployment progress, mass production yield, and subsequent Azure cloud revenue and gross margin guidance. If deployment falls short of expectations, this wave of positive impact is likely to reverse. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Here's a data point you might not believe.
The net assets of the SOL spot ETF have already reached $1.9 billion, and Bitwise's staked ETF BSOL has accumulated net inflows exceeding $1.2 billion, with one person accounting for about 80% of all Solana ETF inflows in the US. Even more intense, the short liquidations on the futures side once approached 96%.
I was stunned staring at these two numbers for a while.
In plain language: a staked ETF means that when you buy in, you're not just betting on price movements, but also earning staking rewards on the side. People who buy these products are in it for the long term, not for short-term speculation. And what does a 96% short liquidation mean? Those betting on a price drop were almost completely wiped out.
Now I think I understand. Short-term ETF outflows of a few million are just a drop in the bucket compared to $1.2 billion in cumulative net inflows. The real big bets are bullish, and holders are willing to earn interest from staking while holding.
$SOL has never even given shorts a break. I’m not guessing if it will rise tomorrow, but the fact that people are willing to put money in for the long term to earn interest shows the solid foundation. Holding on is better than anything else.Interactive Brokers has started allowing clients to stake $ETH.
Sounds big, the veteran broker is finally entering the game.
But on closer thought, this service is provided by ZeroHash.
Interactive Brokers is just a name on the door.
Simply put, money comes in to buy $ETH, then it’s used to generate yield.
Previously, broker clients could only watch the crypto space earn interest.
Now they can get a share too.
The problem is, this meal is served by ZeroHash, not done by Interactive Brokers themselves.
Traditional institutions want to get involved but don’t want to get their hands dirty.
They outsourced it and put their name on it.
How is this different from those brokers back in the day who "supported cryptocurrencies"?
So this news is a plus emotionally.
But if you ask how much $ETH can rise because of this?
I think that’s wishful thinking.
The real question is: who will be the next broker to actually enter the staking business themselves?
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
#$ETH #阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点
$ASML Quarterly revenue reflects orders placed in the past.
▪️ Q3 revenue guidance is €11–12 billion, with a gross margin of 55%–57%
▪️ Full-year guidance has been raised to €43–45 billion; Q2 revenue was €9.326 billion, net profit €2.918 billion
▪️ Strong order intake last quarter is the premise for this guidance upgrade
▪️ TSMC Q3 revenue is NT$1.49 trillion, up 50% year-over-year; upstream equipment is an indirect beneficiary
▪️ Earnings report to be released on 10/14; EUV capacity is still expanding
The divergence is not about whether this quarter beats expectations; revenue reflects past orders, while orders reflect customers' outlook for the future.
The equipment industry has a delivery cycle: from customer order, production, installation, to revenue recognition, spanning several quarters. So strong quarterly revenue may just be digesting backlog orders; to gauge market health, we need to see if new orders keep pace. Capacity planning does not equal orders; the company's expansion of EUV capacity is a judgment on demand, not signed customer contracts.
The stance is to wait and see — revenue meeting targets and continued strong new orders are solid; relying only on existing orders means a mid-term weakening.$SKHYNIX Watch: SK Hynix Falls Below 1100, ASML Stabs from Behind
This trend is indeed frightening, dropping from 1386 all the way down to 1096, a daily plunge of over 6%. The panic from the Korean exchange circuit breaker has directly transmitted through the internet.
ASML is reported to raise spare parts prices for Korea starting in 2027. Memory chips are already in a price war, with Chinese manufacturers pressing hard step by step, and now the upstream equipment giant is coming to cut in, squeezing profit margins from both ends. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the average price paid for coins held less than 155 days, sits at $73.3K. Price trades about 13% above it, so recent buyers are in profit.
In the uptrends of 2023 and 2024, price spent months above this line, shaded green on the chart. A fall back below it would put recent buyers at a loss again, as they were for most of the first half of 2026.Options trading volume has hit a new high,
retail investor sentiment has also returned to the level of back then.
But this is not a signal for a price increase.
We only realize the market has finished its move after the fact.
Because sentiment comes from unrealized profits and losses.
Those who have made money feel confident, those who lost want to exit.
So when it's hottest, the price has already completed its move.
It wasn't retail investors pushing the price up back then, it was money.
Retail sentiment is always the result, not the cause.
Every year we use the result to push the cause.
This time, I only look at two things:
Is the position right, and can I sleep well.
I can't predict the market, nor do I want to.
But any position that wakes you up at midnight to check the market, no matter how lively, is wrong.
The excitement belongs to others.
Being able to sleep well is mine.
In summary:
Retail sentiment and options trading volume have returned to 2021 levels,
but Bitcoin hasn't kept up this time. Whether it can repeat that doubling depends on whether that money really flows into crypto.
Most likely, it won't.First, let's reconcile accounts; I'll tentatively count the evening transaction as correct. In the evening, I wrote that BTC tonight would test 84,166 but fail to hold; this is falsified if it closes above 84,166 and ETH/SOL simultaneously turn green. The 24-hour high was 84,166.3, it tested but didn't hold; now at 83,220, no falsification triggered. Tonight's market shows divergence. BTC +0.71%, ETH -1.07%, SOL -3.4%. The phrase "only BTC is performing" written in the evening fits even better tonight. The trending topic "Bitcoin market dominance rises to 60%" is lively, and the data indeed reflects this. The fee rates deserve a closer look. ETH fees turned negative at -0.0015%, meaning short sellers of ETH are starting to pay interest to the bulls; the number of bears is increasing. SOL fees at 0.0002% are near zero; no one is willing to pay to go long. BTC +0.0054%, down from last night's 0.0083%, fewer are paying premiums to chase higher prices. Open Interest is 29,613 BTC, about 2.46 billion USD; participants haven't left, all still at the table. New judgment for tonight through tomorrow morning: BTC will range between 82,500–83,500; breaking below 82,500 targets around 81,600. Falsification: closing above 84,166 with ETH/SOL simultaneously turning green invalidates this immediately. Before tomorrow night 20:30 CPI release, I won't treat daily price changes as trends. This might be my misjudgment; we'll reconcile accounts tomorrow.今早这盘面看着热闹，底下其实空得很。 你以为是普跌，还是有人在借恐慌换手？ 醒来刷了一眼，满屏红得整整齐齐。ETH 掉了差不多一百点，BTC 也没扛住，ZEC 更夸张，直接抹掉两百点左右。小币跌得比主流还狠，这种"表面一起崩、底层各怀心事"的画面，我第一反应不是抄底，是先看谁在接。 数据快照： - ETH 回落约 100 点，短线买盘薄 - BTC 同步走弱，避险味道浓于进攻 - ZEC 下挫约 200 点，山寨弹性反向放大 - CPI 与 PPI 公布在即，加息预期被重新摆上台面 动能信号和风险信号得分开看。动能这边，主流同步下杀往往意味着杠杆在被强制降温，不是单纯情绪杀。风险这边，小币跌幅更大，说明承接盘在往确定性靠，愿意接飞刀的人变少了。 我自己的理解是，市场现在交易的不是"跌了多少"，而是"谁还敢在数据前加仓"。CPI 和 PPI 没落地前，任何反弹都容易被当成减仓窗口，而不是趋势反转。这也是为什么轻仓试 ETH 反弹可以理解，但重手就有点赌了。偏多的路径在于，数据不炸、预期稳住，主流先修复，山寨才有第二层传导。偏空的风险在于，预期被提前计价，真数据出来反而利好出尽，小币继续失Bearish Warning: Harker Turns Hawkish, Stagflation Alarm Rings Before CPI
Harker clearly supports further rate hikes, completely disregarding the market expectation of no change in October (79.5% probability).
Overall CPI expectations have surged to 3.7%, driven by energy. If core CPI rises instead of falling, the stagflation gray rhino will truly charge.
The world tightens liquidity along with the dollar, draining liquidity completely.
The market has already moved to hedge in advance. BTC holds firm at 83,275, slightly up 0.71%, with funds fleeing to Bitcoin. ETH is precarious at the 2,505 level, down 0.92%.
Projection: If core CPI cools as expected to 0.2%, BTC could reach 84,000-85,000, ETH may test 2,600. If data blows past expectations, BTC will likely break below 80,000 to find support at 78,000, ETH will lose 2,400.
The verdict comes tomorrow night at 8:30 PM; the climax of this macro drama is still ahead.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Having lunch at noon, a group friend suddenly threw a question: Can I get on board with RSR?
I was stunned for a moment. This coin just appeared on the hot list, up 25% in 24 hours, with trading volume 27.8 times the usual, current price 0.00207. But when you ask what it actually does, none of the usual daily tipsters in the group can give a proper story. No narrative, no new features, purely a fund gamble inside, whoever is slower to take it gets hit.Under the surgical light, a pacemaker with firmware rewritten twice is discharging. Ledger confirms that the theft case currently focuses on devices sold by the Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis, with a few machines affected; one was found to have unauthorized implantation, but no intrusion was detected in the official system or direct sales channels. Researchers estimate suspected losses exceeding $86 million, but the total amount and causal link to the implantation have not been verified; European buyers also report suspicious components, likewise unverified. The issue is not "whether it hurts," but whether the infection is still confined to the puncture site.
From a surgical perspective, a hardware wallet's private key is like the sinoatrial node, the firmware is the atrioventricular node and conduction bundle, and the supply chain is the sterile extracorporeal circulation loop. Once the distributor link is contaminated, it’s not a simple matter of replacing an electrode but a breach in the entire sterile chain. Local debridement can resolve a single abscess, but if the European samples also culture homologous pathogens, it indicates emboli may have detached and entered systemic circulation. What is needed now is intraoperative frozen section, blood cultures, and transesophageal echocardiography—not pushing vasopressors on the patient based on fear indices.
The market is the same. The vital signs of $xGOOGL have been compared with the Ledger incident, but anatomically there is no direct coronary connection between the two. Ledger’s lesion lies in the cold wallet supply chain, while $xGOOGL’s myocardium is the cash flow, advertising, and computing power expectations of tech stocks. If it shows hypotension, it is more likely due to risk appetite—the autonomic nerve—being stimulated, causing compensatory tachycardia and subsequent perfusion insufficiency, rather than myocardial necrosis. The real danger is mistaking peripheral infection for primary heart disease, stenting a healthy ventricle while allowing mediastinitis to spread.
The suspected $86M loss is only the volume of pericardial effusion; draining it without verification could puncture a coronary artery. Is the risk limited to one channel? The answer depends on whether the suspicious European components are homologous. If homologous, the single-channel conclusion is a mistaken thoracotomy; if not, local debridement plus device recall can control it. For $xGOOGL, only when the overall bleeding of crypto risk assets causes a sudden drop in liquidity perfusion pressure will linked low cardiac output appear, not from Ledger directly blocking its coronary arteries.
If the suspicious European components are confirmed, this is not a local abscess but hematogenous dissemination; before that, stitching the Ledger implantation incident onto $xGOOGL’s coronary arteries is equivalent to opening the chest without angiography. #ledgerresellersecurity🔥 $SKHYNIX vs $SOXL : Shorts are making millions!
📉 $SKHYNIX: Down 10.4%. Shorts hold $179.26M vs $100.14M longs. Shorts are up +$22.81M, while longs are down -$14.43M.
🔴 $SOXL: Down 13.4%. Shorts hold $38.62M vs $28.46M longs, with +$4.16M profit.
👀 Fresh 30m flow: $SKHYNIX: $1.92M buying vs $1.74M selling. $SOXL: $4.56M buying vs $4.22M selling.
My pick: $SOXL for a potential rebound. Buyers are returning, but shorts still dominate.The most dangerous moment on the chessboard is never the instant the opponent shouts "check," but when you have just made a brilliant sacrifice, hold a huge material advantage on the board, and the audience starts applauding. Because that's when your calculation is most likely to slacken, while the opponent is calculating the loose pawn chain on your queenside.
TSMC was just that player who made the sacrifice. Third-quarter revenue was about 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year surge of 50%, setting a historic high — that move has been made, and the scorekeeper has finished recording it. But the person truly sitting opposite on the board is now not focused on revenue, but on whether the gross margin can reach the 65% to 67% square. Revenue is the rook, profit is the queen. The rook reaching the seventh rank is beautiful, but if the queen can't keep up, the entire offensive is a castle in the air.
The mistake I most often make in the middlegame is miscalculating exchanges when in an advantageous position. In this game, the bulls hold the trump card of record-high revenue, while the bears clutch the hidden costs of capital expenditure, exchange rates, and overseas factory construction. Both sides are waiting for the move on October 15 — the earnings report and conference call. The real killer move is not in the numbers themselves, but in the tone of management's guidance for Q4. If the tone wavers even slightly, the opponent will immediately launch a whole series of forced tactical combinations.
Now look at the off-board linked chessboard. The Fear and Greed Index is an honest referee; it doesn't understand fundamentals, only sentiment. When sentiment reaches extremes, any good move will be interpreted as "all the good news is priced in." Tokenized assets like $xUSAR essentially compress a slow game into a fast one — the endgame of the U.S. stock market during the day hasn't finished, and a new middlegame battle begins on-chain at night. When the pace speeds up, the most common mistake is not being checkmated by the opponent, but making a blunder yourself.
The liquidation data from SK Hynix, the widening AI credit spreads, Apple's market cap surpassing Nvidia — these are not isolated squares. They are linked constraints on the same chessboard. Once a credit-level crack appears on the AI mainline, the storage and foundry branches will be swept simultaneously. Foundry is the foundation; if the foundation is lost at the gross margin level, all offensive formations based on "unlimited expansion of computing power" above will face upgrade obstacles.
My current position is delicate: I am neither opening new positions nor rushing to close. Because before October 15, all positions are blind moves. A true grandmaster does not rush to attack before the opponent reveals all their pieces, but first completes their own kingside pawn chain and calculates the endgame clearly. If the gross margin reaches 66% or higher with strong guidance, that is a real check, and the bears must respond; if the gross margin just barely passes and the guidance is vague, then this game will drag into the endgame, competing over who has more pawns and whose squares are more secure.
The endgame is never about talent, but about whose pawn structure is healthier. #TSMCOct15Earnings Positive news: Economic data cools down on both fronts, BTC holds strong to keep ETH alive
The US September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 97.9, and ADP employment figures were also below the previous value, both indicating an economic slowdown.
This is an implicit positive for the crypto market; weakening employment and real economy confidence mean the Federal Reserve lacks the confidence for further rate hikes, and the market's expectations for rate cuts may rebound.
On the charts, BTC steadies at 83275, up 0.71%, with funds clearly moving to BTC for risk aversion.
ETH is weaker, currently at 2505, down 0.92%, repeatedly testing the 2500 level.
Price projection:
If inflation cools as expected, BTC is likely to push up to 84000-85000, while ETH needs to first hold above 2500 to have a chance to test the 2600 resistance level.
If data surprises on the upside, BTC will likely retest support at 82000, and ETH will probably break below 2450 to find support.
Tomorrow night’s CPI is the final verdict day; the market has already started positioning in advance, with bulls and bears battling fiercely around 2500 and 83000, waiting to see how the market digests this data.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Tomorrow night at 8:30, September CPI lands, and it is the single most important input before the Fed's October 28 meeting. Institutions expect energy prices to push headline CPI from 3.4% to 3.7% year over year, while core CPI month over month may cool from 0.3% to 0.2%. That split matters enormously: headline inflation gets lifted by oil, but core inflation is quietly decelerating. If core CPI truly slows, it signals price pressure is not broad-based, and the market will lean harder into the pSNDK at $1440, do you dare to buy the dip?
From 2354 down to 1440, 39% lost. A single progress report from China's Changxin, and the three major storage giants are collectively dumped, with SanDisk plunging 6% in one day—but while everyone panics and cuts losses, have you thought: SanDisk makes NAND, Changxin targets DRAM, so the cut hit the wrong target?
First, look at the surface: the structure is broken, the downtrend hasn't stopped.
The stock closed at 1487 on October 12, perpetual futures continue to fall today, touching 1410 intraday. The 1440 you see is a low-level rebound, not a new trend. On Binance charts, MA7 is at 1570, MA25 at 1700, 50-day moving average at 1580—the price is below all short- and mid-term moving averages, a classic descending staircase: 1720, 1660, 1600, 1580, 1487, 1410.
Daily RSI is about 38, weak but not extremely oversold. Hourly level was oversold before, so there will be rebounds, but a rebound does not equal a reversal.
But wait.
The 200-day moving average is around 1180, the large-scale uptrend is not yet broken. From the 52-week low of 121 to the high of 2354, this is a typical memory supercycle revaluation. The question now is not "will it rise," but "how far will this valuation cut go."
First point: Changxin targets DRAM, SanDisk makes NAND—this cut hit the wrong target.
Today's sell-off was directly triggered by progress in next-generation DRAM density by China's Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT). The market used this to hit the entire storage sector, dumping Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk together.
But SanDisk makes NAND, not DRAM, and is not a direct competitor to CXMT.
There is panic, and fundamentals are being exaggerated.
The real pricing node is the earnings report on October 29—about two weeks away. Before that, any rebound should be considered emotional repair, not a fundamental reversal.
Wall Street target price midpoint is about 2170, range 1400-3600, with an overall buy rating. But target prices are slow variables and cannot stop short-term valuation cuts.
Second point: P/E ratio is only 7 times, so why is the stock still falling?
SanDisk is one of the world's major NAND suppliers, partnered with Kioxia in a joint venture, benefiting from AI data center enterprise SSD and storage price hike cycles. Revenue and profits have exploded in the past year, TTM P/E is about 20 times, forward P/E compressed to single digits.
The bulls' story has always been: "The cycle is not over, valuation is already cheap."
But the problem is—the stock price has already priced in this story fully.
From 121 to 2354, it rose 19 times in one year. Now the market is trading two things: whether price hikes can continue, and whether the Chinese capacity narrative will suppress valuation. There are no new answers to these before the earnings report.
Cyclical stocks can get cheaper even if cheap. A 7x P/E is not the bottom; the market is pre-pricing a "cycle peak."
Third point: You are playing by different rules.
This is a high Beta tech stock, not a coin with an independent narrative. AI capital expenditure expectations, US stock risk appetite, and interest rates influence direction more than crypto funding rates.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On the bull side:
- 200-day moving average at 1180, large-scale trend intact
- Forward P/E in single digits, valuation not expensive
- AI data center SSD demand still present, price hike cycle not disproven
- Wall Street target price midpoint 2170, rating leans buy
- Changxin targets DRAM, not direct competition with SanDisk NAND
On the bear side:
- Retraced 39% from 2354, structure broken, not a shakeout
- Below all short- and mid-term moving averages, clear descending steps
- Chinese storage capacity narrative suppresses valuation
- No new answers before October 29 earnings
Trading strategy
Two weeks before earnings, this is a "falling volatility," not a "rising trend."
Short term:
- Around 1440 is not suitable for opening new longs. To go long, only do so with confirmation of "holding 1400-1410 + volume contraction + reclaiming 1480," target 1500-1550, stop loss below 1390.
- If 1440 rallies to 1480-1500 but meets resistance and volume is insufficient, that is a better short position, target 1410, break 1400 target 1350. Stop loss above 1510.
Medium term:
- Qualification for mid-term longs is daily close back above 1550-1580 and holding. Before that, all rebounds are treated as pullbacks.
The real large-scale buying point is not guessed here. Either wait for direction after the October 29 earnings or wait for price to return near the 200-day moving average (currently far below) to see support. Entering now is betting against the earnings two weeks later.
For existing longs: the 1480-1500 rebound is a reduction zone, not an add zone. If it breaks 1400, accept the loss; do not average down on perpetual futures.
What not to do:
- Do not go all-in during the decline just because "forward P/E is only 7 times."
- Do not treat Binance perpetual prices as Nasdaq transaction prices. Pre-market, after-hours, weekends, basis is your cost.
- High leverage is not suitable for this asset. Positions still held, funding rates still punish longs, one earnings report or one Chinese storage news can cut another 10%.
SNDK now is like Micron in 2022—
Everyone shouting "cycle bottom, cheap valuation, AI demand explosion."
What happened?
Halved from the high, then halved again. The bottom of cyclical stocks is never calculated by P/E, but hammered out by capacity clearing.
The pre-earnings rebound is not for you to get on board, but to reduce positions.
$BTC $MU $SNDK Today, the watchlist is basically all red, but whose hands hold the whales' money and how it moves follows three distinct scripts:
BTC has whales bottom-fishing, forcibly pulling it back; HYPE is all about contracts playing, with repeated oscillations and pulls; OKB is just influenced by sentiment, waiting for a hype opportunity.
1. $BTC is real money exchanging chips: Coinbase's BTC premium is negative, indicating institutions are indeed discounting and selling; but on-chain whales have withdrawn over 30,000 coins this month, also hoarding real coins.
Such divergence often signals BTC is about to choose a direction. Once this round of chip exchange finishes, a new trend will emerge.
2. $HYPE is a life-and-death duel among big players on contracts, with almost no spot trading.
Currently, Hyperliquid's whales have a net short position totaling $225 million, with some accounts short since last September, enduring a floating loss of 23 million and still holding firm.
So don't be fooled by HYPE's fierce rise now; after all, it's mainly speculation without a spot base, and it could crash anytime.
3. $OKB has a fundamental base and narrative support but hasn't been hyped up; RSI is only 41, so it can only follow the market's slow decline.
But note, there is capital accumulating around 125 for OKB, indicating some big players are optimistic about its story of evolving from an exchange token to a stock settlement infrastructure token.
Whales are very likely not hoarding OKB but are probably betting on the next wave of hype driven by sentiment.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Wall Street's "Price Ladder" for Bitcoin: From Basement to Ceiling, Only a Federal Reserve Away
Wall Street's constructed Bitcoin price ladder is based on USD liquidity at the bottom, with the Federal Reserve controlling the ladder's switch. The basement at the bottom of the ladder is around $40,000, and the ceiling at the top reaches up to $180,000—a huge price gap, fundamentally dependent on interest rate trends. The ladder's ceiling ($100,000 to $180,000) assumes inflation recedes, the Fed cuts rates as expected, and U.S. Treasury yields decline. Funds flow out of low-yield Treasuries into high-elasticity assets. Spot ETFs continue to see large net inflows, fully realizing the narrative of supply contraction from halving. Optimistic targets from VanEck, Bernstein, and Citi are all based on this easing scenario, representing the upside potential when liquidity is ample. The ladder's basement ($40,000 to $46,000) assumes sticky inflation, delayed rate cuts, or even resumed hikes, with Treasury yields remaining high. The opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin soars, institutions actively reduce risk exposure, and ETF funds continue net outflows. Galaxy's bottom range represents the extreme downside under a liquidity tightening scenario. Bitcoin itself does not simultaneously have valuations at both $40,000 and $180,000; rather, the Fed's interest rate decisions determine which rung of the ladder the market stands on. When rates fall, the ladder extends upward; when rates rise, the ladder collapses downward. Currently, with Treasury yields surging and the dollar strengthening, the market is repricing rate cut expectations, volatility is increasing, and leveraged cascading liquidations are easily triggered during midnight hours. Do not treat the ladder's ceiling as an inevitable target.[Korean Peninsula Pressure Trough Breaks, 6% Vertical Wind Shear Appears Over Seoul]
On October 13, in the morning Seoul time, radar echoes from Jeju Island showed the KOSPI index plummeting abruptly without warning, with intraday losses exceeding 6%, directly breaking through the 6,000-point louver scale. This is not ordinary intermittent precipitation; this is a textbook-level temperate cyclone outbreak—the sell-side car mechanism forcibly paused programmed selling pressure within five minutes, equivalent to the meteorological station imposing emergency airspace control, but the precipitation had already fallen and water accumulation had formed.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the two major rain cloud nuclei of this storm. Net foreign selling acted like a northeast monsoon blowing in from the Yellow Sea, continuously pushing the dew point temperature of the semiconductor sector below freezing. The weak ridge precursor of U.S. chip stocks had already been transmitted to East Asia overnight via the upper-level westerly jet stream; Seoul’s reaction is just the inevitable flood peak of the downstream basin. The market is reassessing the return on AI investment—this is not short-term heavy rain, but a climate-scale circulation adjustment; the memory supply-demand outlook has been urgently revised from "partly cloudy to clear" to "continuous overcast with localized heavy rain."
Tom Lee from BitMine sent a rainfall warning for the crypto basin: losses in the Korean stock market may spill over into the digital asset field through margin-driven liquidation chains, forming cross-basin flood linkages. However, as of now, the measured rainfall of this warning has not been verified by any ground station and remains an uncertain area of numerical forecasting. I have seen many similar situations in the weather consultation room—upstream dam breaks, downstream not necessarily breached, but soil saturation is already maxed out.
What really needs to be monitored is the subsequent evolution of the pressure gradient. The car mechanism only stopped for five minutes, like a temporary dam, unable to block the entire frontal passage. The K-line cloud top heights of Samsung and Hynix are still dropping, and the convective available potential energy has not been fully released. There is an invisible jet stream channel between U.S. stock token targets and Seoul semiconductors; when wind shear intensifies, linkage accelerates.
For digital asset observation stations, the current key is not to watch the rain gauge but the barometer—the heavy rain in the Korean stock market is either an isolated convective bubble or a precursor to the overall northward lift of the monsoon trough. The direction of foreign capital flow over the next 72 hours will provide the answer. This rain cloud over Seoul is moving eastward. #KOSPIDropsOver6% Core contradiction: On the eve of CPI, institutions hedge instead of selling off
① Tomorrow's CPI is the only significant catalyst
The market expects the September CPI year-on-year to rise from 3.4% in August to 3.7%, with Middle East military conflicts pushing up fuel prices as the main driving factor. Core CPI is expected to slow from 0.3% month-on-month to 0.2%. CME FedWatch shows the market expects an 81% probability of no change in October, but the probability of a 25bp rate hike in December remains as high as 70.6%.
② Subtle changes in institutional behavior
Market observers note that some institutional investors choose to use hedging tools before the CPI release rather than directly selling crypto assets. This contrasts with the passive reduction in positions in previous weeks, suggesting institutions prefer to retain base positions and manage short-term risks rather than adopt a trend bearish stance.
③ Oil price is the biggest "X factor" for CPI
During today's Asian session, a decline in South Korean semiconductor stocks and weakness in Nasdaq futures triggered a risk appetite contraction, with BTC falling below 110/barrel and retreating to about $103/barrel. If oil prices continue to fall, it will directly ease inflation expectations, benefiting CPI data. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #Morning session completed a two-way washout of longs and shorts, followed by a rapid reversal and rally
The morning session completed a two-way washout of longs and shorts, followed by a rapid reversal and rally. This time, the one-hour continuous bullish close completed a K-line reversal engulfing pattern, with a lack of corresponding fundamental information driving it. The market speculates that after the price touched the whale liquidation point near 80400, short covering brought buying pressure to push the market up. The premise for this speculation to hold is that the funds for this rally come from liquidation replenishment.
From another perspective, this upward move led Ethereum to strengthen in sync, but some coins showed weak rebounds after morning pullbacks, with a clear divergence in strength. Short orders concentrated at resistance levels were triggered for stop losses, continuously pushing prices higher. If the price stabilizes above the previous high, short strategies will face significant risks.
Going forward, it is necessary to track CPI data, interest rate statements, TSMC earnings reports, and spot ETF fund flows. The market is like a rudderless boat, with short-term fluctuations entirely driven by leveraged funds within the market.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 Bro, last night this chart fully captured the current anxiety in the storage sector.
SanDisk plunged nearly 6%, Micron dropped nearly 4%, and Samsung Hynix also came under pressure. On the surface, it's foreign capital reducing holdings, previous gains were too high, plus Samsung and Hynix's large-scale stock buybacks are about to end, so without buyback funds to support, short-term pressure naturally emerges.
But what really makes the market nervous is ChangXin. ChangXin just disclosed progress on the 4F² DRAM architecture and plans to launch server memory products by year-end. Although mass production capability hasn't been verified yet, the expectation that "Chinese manufacturers are breaking into the high-end market" directly shakes the valuation logic of Korean and American giants. Cyclical stocks fear supply increases the most; once expectations change, valuations must be recalculated.
What does this have to do with our BTC? A lot. AI infrastructure is the core engine of this tech stock cycle, and storage is the fuel in that engine. If storage starts to weaken, it means the market's patience for AI returns is declining. Tech stocks are being drained, and high-volatility assets like BTC definitely can't escape short-term turbulence. This is also one of the reasons why BTC is still struggling around 83,000 now. $BTC $SNDK CPI will be announced tomorrow, BTC stuck between 83,000 and 84,000, how should we play tonight?
Tomorrow (October 14), the US September CPI data will be released, which is the last key inflation data before the Fed's rate decision at the end of October.
The market expectation is roughly: overall CPI year-on-year rising from 3.4% to about 3.7%, with the core being relatively mild. Cleveland Fed President Mester recently stated support for "small but faster" rate hikes to curb inflation. On interest rate futures, the probability of a rate hike in December once surged quite high.
The current market situation is very typical:
• $BTC is fluctuating around 83,000, after dipping near 80,000 a few days ago and bouncing back, oscillating repeatedly between 81,300 and 84,500.
• ETFs have seen outflows this week, and spot buying is not strong.
• The Fear and Greed Index has fallen from a higher level but is still in the greed zone.
My own observation is: before the data is released, the market will most likely continue to oscillate to digest expectations. The real direction will be determined by how much the data deviates from expectations.
If the core data is softer than expected, there might be a short-term push above 84,500, next looking at around 87k near the beginning of the year opening price. If both overall and core data are hotter, the 81,300 support will be retested, and if broken, there will be more downside space.
These days, high leverage longs and shorts are being swept back and forth; position size and stop-loss are more important than direction. Personally, I am temporarily holding a light position and waiting for the data to land before deciding.
After the data comes out tomorrow, do you lean more towards breaking 84,500 and continuing up, or first retesting 80,000? #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点
$MSFT chip released today, deployment scheduled for 2027.
▪️ Maia 300 announced on 10/12, planned for actual deployment in 2027
▪️ Single cabinet contains 96 chips, double the previous generation Maia 200 cabinet
▪️ Token throughput of a 96-chip cabinet is up to 7 times that of Maia 200
▪️ Tokens processed per megawatt of power are 40% higher than leading GPUs
▪️ 2nm process + HBM4; analysts expect it to account for about 10% of Microsoft's AI chip spending in Q1 2027
The disagreement is not about the chip's strength, but the full year gap between "release" and "deployment."
Microsoft clearly positions the Maia series: mainly for inference, training still in cooperation with Nvidia and AMD. In other words, this self-developed line does not yet touch the most expensive segment. The real variable is not the parameters of today's chip, but whether the deployment scale starting next year and the 10% spending share given by Evercore can be realized — the chip release is just the starting point.
The direction is to wait and see — deployment volume and share increase as planned will count as fulfillment; delays mean this line is still just a declaration.Ant Daily | $800M Liquidated, Longs and Shorts Both Hit, Harvesting Starts Again
$815M liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 170,000 people buried, $689M liquidated on long positions.
$BTC (short): Opened at 83111.9 / Marked at 83339.64, unrealized loss -56.02U. 81000 is strong support at the 400-day moving average, big divergence between longs and shorts before CPI. If core CPI tomorrow exceeds 0.3%, it may retest 80000; if below expectations, it will rebound to 85000.
$XRP (short): Opened at 1.4167 / Marked at 1.3646. XRPL fixed a high-risk vulnerability today, theoretically allowing abnormal generation of 18.45 trillion tokens, with a bounty of only 250,000. The vulnerability was not exploited but technical risk has been repriced.
$DOGE (short): Opened at 0.08828 / Marked at 0.084360. Crypto ETFs saw a weekly net outflow of 1.25 billion, while XRP ETF attracted 11.31 million against the trend, funds are shifting. Shorts are covering after deleveraging.
Hotspot: Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 65.4 million yesterday, BlackRock IBIT is the only product with unusual activity. Tomorrow on October 14, CPI is expected at an annual rate of 3.7%, with energy prices as the driver.
Summary: $800M liquidated, longs and shorts both hit. XRP vulnerability fermenting, deleveraging ongoing, BTC and CPI in focus. See you at the table.
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6%
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 If the US stock market officially launches 23-hour trading on weekdays this December, the liquidity of altcoins may further decrease, and many altcoins will go to zero in the future. Therefore, before December is the golden window for junk altcoin pump-and-dump by manipulators to lucky buyers. For me personally, besides allocating a few particularly promising blue-chip altcoins, I will also allocate part of my position to $CRCL and $COIN stocks. In the future, the returns of these two coin stocks are very likely to outperform 95% of altcoins. $SNDK In the next month, SanDisk is very likely to experience a volatile trading range, with low probability of a strong one-sided rally or a sharp one-sided drop.
The core contradiction in the stock price lies in market expectation differences.
The stock has surged significantly earlier, with the market already pricing in the benefits of AI and NAND price increases.
The latest quarterly guidance fell short of expectations, causing investors to worry about a cycle peak.
Here, two things need to be distinguished:
Enterprise-level NAND and AI server storage are the main drivers of the stock price increase.
Consumer products like USB drives and TF cards that we see daily have limited impact on the stock price.
Short-term negative factors:
First, profit-taking pressure is heavy, and even slight disturbances can trigger concentrated profit-taking.
Second, the market is beginning to question the sustainability of AI demand, with bears continuing to ferment the "AI bubble" narrative.
Third, adjustments in production capacity strategies by overseas major manufacturers, combined with DRAM pricing shocks caused by Changxin Memory, will affect sentiment across the entire storage sector.
Short-term supporting factors:
NAND contract prices have not collapsed rapidly, and the supply-demand pattern has not immediately reversed.
The company still has a large stock buyback program, which can provide a floor during sharp declines.
If inventory destocking exceeds expectations or major manufacturers announce production cuts, it can easily trigger a short-term rebound.
Two scenario forecasts for the next month.
Scenario one: Weak volatility.
AI expectations continue to cool, storage sector sentiment weakens, stock price repeatedly pressured, prone to rise and fall.
Scenario two: Rapid rebound.
If news of NAND contract price increases or major production cuts emerges, short-term funds will quickly push prices up.
However, this rebound is more of an emotional repair and is unlikely to replicate the previous main upward trend.
Key signals to watch:
NAND spot/contract prices, major manufacturer production cut announcements, U.S. Treasury yields, AI capital expenditure guidance.
Operational suggestions:
Do not heavily bet on a one-sided move.
Those bullish should not chase highs; wait for a pullback and stabilization before considering; those bearish should not short fully, as the storage sector’s rebound potential is very strong.
Distinguish between consumer flash memory and server storage; do not equate USB drive price drops directly with a collapse in the company’s fundamentals. Many people think that SanDisk's product price cuts are caused by the bursting of the AI bubble.
But this logic actually doesn't hold up.
AI mainly drives high-spec DRAM, HBM, and enterprise-level large-capacity NAND on the server side.
It affects the pricing of industrial and server-grade chips.
SanDisk, however, produces consumer-grade storage like USB drives, memory cards, and portable SSDs.
These two markets are basically separate.
The core reason for this round of price cuts is not the decline of the AI concept.
It is the capacity release from ChangXin Memory, impacting the pricing power of overseas DRAM manufacturers.
International storage giants, to protect their market share, are adjusting their overall capacity strategies,
which leads to increased supply and price declines of consumer-grade NAND chips.
AI is just a thematic bonus for the storage sector,
not the root cause of consumer-grade storage price drops.
It is recommended not to link all storage market trends to AI stories.
Distinguish between enterprise and consumer markets, understand the real supply and demand,
and don't let trending narratives mislead your judgment. There is a common trap when looking at capital flows: only looking at single-day figures. $BTC spot ETF this week is a perfect example. On October 8, the single-day net outflow was $244 million, which looks scary; on October 9, it turned positive with +$21 million, seeming like the money "came back." But if you extend the period to 5 trading days: from 10/5 to 10/9, the cumulative net outflow was about $681 million (the largest single-week outflow since June). A single-day positive figure is barely a ripple in the weekly context. $ETH is even more typical: as of October 12, it has had 10 consecutive trading days of net outflow (no positive days since September 29), with a single-day outflow of $85 million on October 12, totaling about $783 million. The single-day outflow of $202 million on October 6 remains the largest day in this round. When these two perspectives conflict, my view is: single-day figures represent the buying and selling strength of that day, while the weekly perspective shows whether the trend has changed. A single-day positive figure with the weekly still showing outflow means "selling pressure has eased," but does not mean "money has returned." Next to watch: if the BTC spot ETF turns positive for 3 consecutive days and the single-day scale returns above $100 million, then we can talk about "capital inflow." Before that, treat the rebound as emotional repair. This is my personal observation framework and does not constitute trading advice. Do you usually look at capital flows on a single-day or multi-day basis? Have you ever been fooled by single-day data? #BTC #ETH