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$BEAT 从 0.06 拉到 8 刀翻了 120 倍，但我劝你别急着冲——拆完链上数据我后背发凉 前几天徐明星在 X 上发长文怼币安，顺手点了一串"币安上线后暴跌"的币：RAVE、LAB、EDGE，还有咱们今天的主角 BEAT。老徐的潜台词很直白——"看，币安上的币跌成这样，用户保护有问题吧？" 但有个细节他没说——这些币在 OKX 跌得一点不比币安少，BEAT 自己也在名单里。 所以今天就把这只"妖币"拆开看看，到底是谁在买，又到底值不值得跟。 币价：7 天涨 400%，但刚挨过一次大解锁 BEAT 是 Audiera 的原生币，项目方给自己贴的标签是"劲舞团 Web3 进化版 + AI Agent + Dance & Earn"，底层在 BNB Chain。 看下最近这组数据你就懂什么叫妖： 2025 年 11 月 2 日历史最低 $0.06792 2026 年 6 月 10 日冲到 $7.92，Coingecko 排名一度冲到 #41 近 7 天涨幅 +100%，近 30 天 +320%，近 90 天 +534% 6 月 8 日那一天单日爆拉 95%，价格冲到 $3.98Intraday high of 4.7U, intraday low of 2.45U, current price 2.8u, maximum 24-hour drop of 47.1%; The single-day heavy volume plunged sharply, completely breaking through the key 2.99U medium-term support and erasing all previous day's gains. A massive number of long contracts accumulated in the 2.95U-3.25U range. After the price broke below the 2.99U support, a chain of long liquidations was triggered, with total 24-hour long liquidations exceeding 3.2 million USD. The previous rally was mainly driven by World Cup AI music creation activities, with a short-term influx of new users and paid item consumption driving BEAT buyback and burning; On July 28, event traffic plummeted, with daily active users and platform revenue down 62% month-on-month. On July 27, it surged 16.3% in a single day, with a short-term continuous rebound accumulating large unrealized profit chips; The daily RSI surged to 64, entering the overbought zone, with bullish momentum exhausted and no new off-market funds taking over. Once support is broken, short-term speculative funds uniformly take profits, and programmatic selling creates multiple sell-offs and negative feedback, intensifying the day's sharp decline. In July, 21.24 million BEAT tokens were unlocked monthly, with the earlier rally only briefly absorbing some selling pressure; On July 28, early-stage investment institutions and team shares were centrally unlocked and circulated, low-cost chips continued to flow into the secondary market, and supply-side pressure significantly outpaced buying demand, completely reversing the supply-demand pattern. The market's previously hyped narrative of "persistent deflation" has been disproven, with funds predicting a significant decline in token consumption demand and collective sell-offs to realize profits. 1. Short-term strong resistance: 3-3.1 U (key support for this round's box body, breakout and reversal resistance) 2. Mid-term strengthAccording to market data, Korea's KOSPI index plunged 10% intraday, SK Hynix dropped over 13%, and Samsung Electronics also fell over 12%. The first impression of this news was that the Korean domestic market had experienced a short-term correction. But a close look at the leading decliners reveals that the core of this round of declines is precisely the two leading storage companies. Many people have actually reversed the reason: it's not that the overall market weakness dragged down the storage sector, but that capital collectively bears the storage cycle, selling off SK Hynix and Samsung directly, dragging the index down This actually matches my judgment yesterday. A few days ago, Changxin Memory went public, and the entire internet was imagining the storage sector starting a new main rally. In just one day, market sentiment reversed 180 degrees. In fact, the risk signals were released early last night. Last night, the US semiconductor sector closed lower first, with funds fleeing early. Coupled with rumors of overseas manufacturers expanding production, the market began to worry that storage supply and demand would gradually become more relaxed. Panic spread along the supply chain, and overnight pessimism led to a concentrated surge in the Korean stock market today. SK Hynix can be clearly seen from the 15-minute small-time candlestick. The price has been continuously stepping downward, with intraday volume plunging sharply, hitting a low of 1063. After a brief rebound, it came under pressure and declined again. The MACD remains below the zero line, and bearish momentum has not clearly weakened. The RSI has not entered an extremely oversold territory. There is no clear short-term signal of a stop-decline. This is no longer a simple technical correction. Funds are voting with their feet, and the second confirmation of this round of price hikes is very likely to be imminent#停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day
With Middle East geopolitical tensions easing and expectations of a ceasefire realized, WTI crude oil has plunged sharply. Previously, the market accounted for a large conflict risk premium, with funds concentrating on closing positions, causing oil prices to quickly give back gains.
The core reason
1. Conflict has cooled down, navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz have eased, panic over energy supply disruptions has quickly subsided, and the geopolitical premium that drove up oil prices has been largely cleared out. Note that this is only a temporary ceasefire, with no permanent agreement yet signed, and the situation still faces the possibility of rebound.
2. Falling oil prices help ease imported inflationary pressures, and the market lowers expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, which is macro positive for risk assets in the medium to long term.
Personal Market Views:
In the short term, this is a price of expected fulfillment, so it is not advisable to directly pursue long risk assets. Geopolitical news is highly recurring; once negotiations bring new variables, oil prices could easily rebound again.
For mainstream coins to sustain their upward trend, relying solely on oil price declines is far from enough; institutional funds and policy catalytic resonance are also needed.
Practical approach: Caution in the short term to chase gains, continuously track the progress of the strait navigation negotiations and the oil price support range.
Do you think that easing inflationary pressures will accelerate the Fed's rate cuts? $CL $BZ Trump is stirring up trouble again today—crypto folks, stay tight
1. "Friendly negotiations" with Iran?
Trump said he was in "very friendly" talks with Iran and boasted that there was a "very good chance of reaching an agreement."
Bah! One moment you say you want a military strike, the next you're calling it 'friendly'?
This attitude is just like the project team's shouting about "long-term value" before the sale.
But if they really don't take action, oil prices fall, inflation eases, and the Fed can cut rates
BTC took off on the spot, but this damn guy threatened to "resume military operations if negotiations fail." So it's just back-and-forth selling, right?
2. See Netanyahu:
Today, the White House met and said there are "differences" on the Iran issue. Divided my ass! You two play the red face and the bad cop, like market makers in the crypto world flipping the hand from one hand to the other.
But with the Middle East in turmoil, is safe-haven capital rushing to gold or BTC? Anyway, those ETF institutions will definitely take the opportunity to accumulate funds. I'm bullish, but as long as you two don't trigger black swan crashes, that's enough.
3. Meeting Zelensky, saying he wants a "peaceful resolution" to Ukraine: The Wall Street Journal said he is "optimistic" and the team should "play a constructive role."
Jianjian Ni Dam! You've been fighting Russia-Ukraine in China, and now you're pretending to be a dove of peace? But once the ceasefire expectation emerged, global risk assets were hyped. BTC and US stocks could hit 70,000 in the short term, but your sharp tongue flips faster than flipping a book—anyone who believes it is an idiot.
4. Criticizing the Federal Reserve: Today's Most Intense Story! Trump directly named and strongly supported Chairman Walsh, but called other board members "very political," then forcefully demanded that the U.S. have the "world's lowest interest rate," and claimed that if rates were low, GDP could grow annualized by 8%-12%
Damn, this is even more ridiculous than crypto KOLs shouting "a hundredfold"! But the truth is not unreasonable
If he really pushes interest rates to zero, BTC will be the world's toughest inflation hedge—not 60,000, but 600,000!
Unfortunately, the Fed doesn't listen to him. This old man can only talk trash on Twitter, just like cursing the market makers every day after being trapped in a trade call.
5. Imposing tariffs on Canada: The reason given was "smoke from Canadian wildfires drifting over," and even posted AI images to mock them.
This is as ridiculous as the 'project team delayed mainnet launch due to weather'!
But once the tariff war broke out, the US dollar strengthened, putting BTC under short-term pressure. However, Canada is also cowardly and doesn't dare to retaliate. This negative impact is limited, so treat it as a stabbing to shake the market.
---
Summary: Trump was full of empty talk today, not a single one landed.
The crypto world cares most about the Federal Reserve's interest rate—he shouts fiercely, but Powell (Walsh) may not listen.
BTC will still fluctuate in the short term, so don't let this old man's sentiment lead you astray.
If you really want to bet, it's to see when he suddenly tweets about "BTC strategic reserves increasing positions"—that would be real price rallying. But now?
Haha, the bullish news keeps bouncing around, just like contract liquidations and satisfying satisfying.
Remember: Trump's mouth is a liar. Keep a close eye on the Fed, but don't focus on him.
$BTC $BTC The total cryptocurrency market capitalization remains unchanged at the $2.3 trillion level. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has been moving sideways, stabilizing at $64,800. Ethereum rose 1.2% to $1,940. Sector performance is differentiated; The centralized finance (CeFi) sector grew by 0%, while the NFT and GameFi sectors fell by 11% and 8%, respectively. $ETH $BTC From the current market, prices have been in a phase of consolidation and consolidation. The overall weak pattern has improved, bearish momentum has weakened, and market sentiment is gradually stabilizing. After consolidation ends, prices are very likely to form a rebound and recover. On the four-hour chart, a long lower shadow has formed below, indicating some support below. The support below is quite obvious, indicating some buying support. In trading, focus on the area near the support below, and use this support to buy long positions for Orange. #KoreaStocks plunge 8%, Changxin tops A-shares on its first day #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: OKX MasterClass airs tonight, helping you understand the financial reports of the four tech giants$ETH $BTC Whether the crypto market is rising or falling, it is basically driven by the consensus on Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Currently, those who are mostly bearish have only two main views
First: $BTC The 4-year cycle of 500-day buy-in, 500-day sell-out window hasn't arrived yet, roughly between October and November. Once this time is reached, this group will start turning from short to long
Second: The last drop—every bear market bottoming out is often accompanied by black swan events, exchange closures, or abscondence. In recent days, exchange platforms have indeed experienced consecutive collapses, but there has been no black swan event caused by previous bear markets. This is the last main force of the air force!
This is the current situation: the price dropped a couple of days ago, then quickly surged in a few days
In two or three months, the real watershed will appear. Decide for yourself which is more important!! $ZAMA /USDT is showing renewed strength on the 1H chart after bouncing from the recent pullback. Buyers have stepped back in, pushing the price toward 0.0630 with improving short-term momentum.
The recovery from the local low looks constructive, although the previous peak around 0.0667 remains the key level to watch. A sustained move above that area could signal continued bullish interest.
For now, the chart suggests that bulls are attempting to regain control, but confirmation through follow-through and healthy volume will be important before expecting a larger breakout.
I'm watching this setup closely to see whether ZAMA can build enough momentum for another push higher. What do you think is the next move for $ZAMA /USDT?
#OKXTraderVoices 🌍 $LAB | The real chart to watch isn't on TradingView
Everyone's staring at $BTC and $ETH. Meanwhile global trade is shifting under the surface.
Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz just put energy supply chains back in focus. It's one of the world's key oil routes. A proposed 20% transit fee got dropped, but the friction hasn't. That means higher shipping costs and supply risks are still on the table.
Why crypto should care:
⚡ Costlier energy = inflation pressure
🚢 Expensive shipping = more supply chain stress
💵 Tighter central bank policy for longer
📉 Less liquidity = headwinds for risk assets
Short term: uncertainty pushes money out of volatile assets.
Long term: if inflation sticks and trust in TradFi slips, Bitcoin and digital assets look better as alternative stores of value.
For $LAB, it's not just about project news. Macro liquidity drives everything.
The next big move might not start with a candle. It could start with a headline from an oil tanker.
$LAB $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit
#CXMTDebutShockwave
#FOMCRateWatch If you don't chase highs, you can wait for a pullback; Without rushing to sell, you can also plan for profit-taking in advance
This is exactly what US Dual Currency Win does, but to be clear: it's not a principal-protected order—it's more like a 'beginner version selling options.'
You receive a profit, and you also accept the possibility of buying or selling at the agreed price at maturity
📌 Scenario 1: Want to buy NVDA, but don't want to chase highs
For example, if you are optimistic about NVIDIA for a long time and only wait for it to drop to the psychological level before buying
Subscribe to "Buy Low" with USDT, setting target prices and terms
At expiration:
• Price above target: Get back USDT principal and returns
• Price equal to or below target price: Settle at the target price as XNVDA, and earn profits at the same time
Note that if the expiration price has fallen below the target price, if you still re-enter at the target price, you may immediately incur a floating loss after the price arrives
📌 Scenario 2: Holding XNVDA, preparing to take profit at the target level
Select "High Sell," and set the target selling price and deadline in advance
At expiration:
• Price below target: Get back XNVDA principal and returns
• Price equal to or higher than the target price: Settled in USDT at the target price, earning profits simultaneously
The cost is also straightforward: if the price continues to surge after maturity, profits above the target price will no longer affect you
So winning with dual coins is not "just getting interest for free."
Regular orders are more flexible and can be withdrawn at any time; Dual Win allows you to earn agreed returns during the waiting period, but US token products currently do not support early redemption and must bear risks such as lock-up, token conversion, and missing market rallies.
There is only one person who truly fits it:
When the target price is reached, people are willing to buy; When the target price is reached, they are willing to sell.
If you only rush in at the sight of aging products, chances are you don't even understand what you've sold. $XNVDA ❓ SOON has already taken the top spot on OKX's contract gainers' chart. If you chase it now, will you keep profiting or standing guard for others? As of 11:35 Beijing time on July 28, 2026, OKX's publicly available perpetual contract market data shows: Contract: SOON-USDT-SWAP Latest price: $0.2426 24-hour opening: $0.1920 24-hour gain: +26.35% 24-hour high: $0.2463 24-hour low: $0.1892 24-hour trading volume: approximately 188.7 million SOON Contract open interest: approximately 17.62 million SOON Position value: approximately $4.2837 million Current funding rate: +0.005% Price 🔥 still near the 24-hour high SOON current price of $0.2426, only about 1.5% below the 24-hour high of $0.2463. Calculating from a low price of $0.1892, the highest increase exceeded 30%. This indicates that SOON is still in a strong zone, but it also means that the chasers have moved away from the lows and are now directly facing profit-taking orders at high levels. 💰 Funding rates are not crazy for now. Currently, funding rates are about +0.005%. Bulls need to pay fees to shorts, but the numbers are not extreme for now. This is different from some crowded markets where funding rates soar rapidly, indicating that although contract bulls hold the advantage, there has not yet been any particularly exaggerated paid chasing gains. However, a low funding rate does not mean the price is risk-free. SOTo be blunt, I really hope the situation in Korea will be transmitted to the US stock market tonight...
BTC has been fluctuating at low levels for so long, just one last tremble...
I previously guessed that MSTR or some second-tier exchange would ignite the wire, but later it turned out neither path was very realistic...
So in the end, it should only be the influence of the broader financial environment...
BlackRock started leading the way in selling on the 23rd, and ETFs have recently returned to a daily net outflow of $200 million. So I think a major pullback in US stocks pushing BTC to a new low and truly starting to bottom out is the best scenario right now...
Currently, my cash account for over 80%. Thanks to kaito for helping me make a profit, the only altcoin with a large position in the bear market actually pulled up 400%...
After that, it's time to patiently wait for the chance to pick up the body!
Although I haven't made much money recently, the amount of coin-denominated accounts is hitting new highs, so in a sense, it's still a profit...While the whole world is cheering for a ceasefire, I choose to reduce my position—75% of the “peace premium” is brewing the next squeeze
Do you know anyone like this?
Yesterday, oil prices plummeted 8%, the Dow rose 260 points, and Bitcoin rebounded to reclaim $65,000.
The screen was full of “ceasefire good news,” “inflation easing,” and “risk assets spring is here.”
Then he rushed in to chase the rally.
Congratulations, you might be standing right at the end of this rebound.
Let’s look at the facts first.
WTI crude oil futures closed down 7.5% on Monday at $82.61. Brent plunged 8.7%, closing at $88.36. From the swing high of $93.83, oil prices have already retraced more than 12%.
The reason is simple—on July 24, Trump ordered the US military to stop strikes on Iran, and both sides have paused fire for the third consecutive day.
The market’s pricing for a ceasefire before August 31 has already soared to 75%.
But here lies the problem.
75%—this is not just a number; it’s a danger signal.
When everyone believes “peace is coming soon,” that expectation has already been fully priced in. The drop from 93 to 82 reflects that 75% expectation.
The question now is: how much further can it fall?
Technical analysis gives you the answer.
WTI has short-term support near $81. Analysts cite short-term support at $81.00 and $80.00.
If it stabilizes and rebounds here, the Fibonacci resistance zone is between $87.20 and $89.73.
What does that mean? A 7% rebound potential from 81 to 87.
And what did Trump himself say?—“I have enough patience and time to reach an agreement with Iran, but if a new ceasefire agreement is not reached, the US will resume military strikes on Iran.”
The current ceasefire situation remains fragile. Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not significantly recovered. Iran’s Foreign Ministry even denies any negotiations with the US.
A 75% ceasefire probability? One sentence from Trump can turn it into 25% within 24 hours.
What does a 7% oil price rebound mean for the crypto space?
The transmission chain is as follows:
oil price rebound → inflation expectations rise → US Treasury yields rise → US dollar strengthens → liquidity withdraws from risk assets
Bitcoin has already dropped 2.53% today, Ethereum down 3.22%. Over 150,000 liquidations occurred across the network within 24 hours.
BTC briefly fell below $64,000, hitting a low of $63,414.
Do you think this is a coincidence?
It’s not. This is the macro transmission chain playing out in the real world.
To be blunt—
While you’re cheering for the ceasefire, smart money is quietly exiting.
About 9,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges in the past week. But Bitcoin futures open interest declined even as prices slightly rose—traders are reducing exposure, not adding new bullish bets.
Order book data continues to show net selling pressure.
“You fear when others are greedy”—you’ve heard this a hundred times, but how many actually do it?
In the coming days, the FOMC meeting is the biggest variable. The market expects a Fed rate hike in September, but Castle Securities hinted there might be an unexpected 25 basis point hike this week.
Double negative factors are piling up, and BTC is clearly under pressure.
My trading advice is simple:
Don’t chase highs. Don’t chase longs.
Take advantage of this macro bullish sentiment to reduce positions and hedge. Buy short-term put options to protect spot holdings—spending a little on insurance is nothing to be ashamed of.
The 75% ceasefire probability is the market consensus, not your safety net.
When everyone believes peace will come, the cost of peace has already been paid.
And if peace doesn’t come—
Guess who will pay for this 75% misjudgment?
$BTC $CL $BZ
#停火预期兑现，WTI原油期货单日跌8.68% Domestic lithography machines, China Storage listing, open-source large models in China...
In the past, these news wouldn't have had much impact on U.S. stocks, because the market would see them as fake news, like a farce like Loongson...
But now it seems his attitude has changed, and he feels a bit like he's facing a formidable enemy...
Putting aside whether lithography machines are just fake news and farce, or whether storage and large models have caught up, although they haven't surpassed, they just keep sticking to disgust you...
If lithography machines gradually catch up and chip advantages are diminished, the entire AI valuation in the US stock market will have to be completely recalculated...
Because most of the premium comes from the foundational monopoly, I somewhat believe this news. After all, there have been discussions about China's self-developed lithography machine architecture for a year ago. It's a kind of strategy where power flies bricks and miracles happen...
The facts prove that if you block China, you'll only be utterly vulnerable to knockoffs, and then China will catch up with you in terms of applications and seize your market share...
If you let China use it freely, there won't be any systemic challenges. After all these years, China still doesn't have a decent operating system—isn't that because it's open source?
In short, the US stock market hasn't opened yet, so it doesn't matter what you say. Just watch the market reaction tonight. Nasdaq futures dipped slightly, not looking frightened; instead, South Korea was the first to kneel...#停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day
Expected ceasefire fulfilled, WTI crude oil fell 8.68% in a single day: Don't celebrate too soon, this is not pure positive news
On July 27, New York closed: WTI September contract at $82.61, down 7.50% for the day; The largest intraday drop was over 8%, some platforms saw a -8.68% drop, Brent also plunged 8.70%, erasing all last week's gains in two days, shattering the dream of 100-yuan oil prices.
The direct trigger is this: Trump halted airstrikes on Iran, leaving a window for negotiations, the market cut the extreme tail probability of Hormuz blockade + full supply disruption, and concentrated geopolitical premium closing positions. But this is not peace, it's a breather—Trump's words fail to resume strikes, the Houthis are still bombing Red Sea facilities, and the strait's flow is only 15% of pre-war levels.
My viewpoint is straightforward and divided into three layers:
First, this is an indirect bullish bias for the crypto world, but it's not a switch for tomorrow's rally.
The transmission chain is old: oil prices fall → inflation expectations fall→ rate cut opportunities → liquidity expectations loosen→ BTC/ETH as high-β assets benefit in the medium term. But in the 2026 environment, the chain is too long, with the Fed stuck in between, and I've been proven wrong once — can't believe the net flow of the temporary + ETF hasn't turned positive yet. Oil prices fell 8% in a single day and can't save micro-level liquidity.
If you really believe in this positive news, you'll need to wait for CPI data to be continuously validated + dot plot turns dovish, not just a candlestick reaction tonight.
Second, distinguish between declines in geopolitical easing and collapse in demand.
This time, it's the former—supply hasn't stopped, demand hasn't collapsed, pure premium squeezes out, which is clean positive for risk assets.
But if it later turns into "global economic data is terrible → oil keeps falling," then it becomes recession pricing. BTC will first follow the decline and wait for easing, with the rhythm completely reversed. The market price is currently the first type; don't imagine the second option as a premature scare for yourself.
Third, the most important thing to watch out for is that all the good news is being exhausted.
The moment the ceasefire expectation materializes, the long positions in crude oil are fully unwinded, and crypto bears can take advantage of the macro positive news to reverse and wash the bulls. BTC hasn't followed the rise in the past couple of days isn't stupid; it's waiting: waiting for the Fed's rhetoric at this week's meeting, waiting for IBIT net flow to shift, and waiting for oil prices to hold at $82. Big money doesn't look at Toutiao, but on verification.
They don't chase long BTC just because oil prices fell 8%, nor do they go short on the opposite side. Use WTI 80-82 USD as a macro anchor, and if it falls below 78 accompanied by recession data→ risk assets should be revised downward. Position allocation is allocated to inflation data + CPI + ETF net flow confirmation, so you don't make money with poor sentiment. The latest rise in Chinese equities is not being driven by a single policy announcement or a temporary burst of speculative enthusiasm. It reflects the convergence of three powerful forces: an AI-driven memory-chip upcycle, the accelerating localisation of China’s semiconductor supply chain, and a broader reassessment of Chinese assets after years of valuation compression. This does not mean that every Chinese stock has entered a new bull market. The rally remains highly selective, with capital BITCOIN WEEKLY W31/2026 — @MinerCost_BTC
Updated: 2026-07-28
COP (Electricity Cost) : $59,035 / BTC
AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost) : $76,746 / BTC
BTC Price : $63,213 (Jul 28, 10:01 VNT)
Price / COP : 1.07x
Price / AISC : 0.82x => Trading below production cost — accumulation zone
200W SMA : -0.5%
Weekly RSI : 30.3
Market Insights:
Bitcoin continues to trade below its All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of mining.
In W30, BTC closed just above the 200-week SMA for the 4th consecutive week.
Currently in W31, the price is pulling back to $63k (slightly below the 200-week SMA).
Historically, Bitcoin tends to consolidate around the 200-week SMA for an extended period. Personally, I prefer accumulating when the price dips below the 200W SMA (note: historically, wick downs of up to 30% below the 200W SMA are possible).
Do you think BTC will resume its recovery momentum towards $70k, or face deeper stress tests down to the $50k range?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
Disclaimer:
This is a personal analysis. Raw data is sourced from the internet and compiled based on my own methodology for personal investment purposes only. This does not constitute financial advice. DYOR.
#Bitcoin — @MinerCost_BTC
$BTC I sympathize with the futures bulls (myself included), just thinking about going big...
And then it got a big mess...
The spot premium did not rebound sharply after the sharp drop, indicating that few futures shorts entered the market. $BTC Currently, it is a tug-of-war between spot bears and futures bulls...
Last night I guessed Koreans are starting to return to crypto, and this morning I saw the Korean index crash and circuit breakers, so guess again: sold BTC today to cover stock margin?July 28 Daily Report: Bitcoin fell below 64,000, over 160,000 people liquidated, market surrendered $BTC #韩股重挫8% ahead of Fed policy meeting, Changxin topped A-shares for the first day
Bitcoin fell below the $64,000 mark this morning, with OKX data showing a low of $63,988, down 2.18% in 24 hours. Ethereum fared even worse, simultaneously falling below $1,900 and further dipping to around $1,880, a drop of over 3%. In the past 24 hours, about $610 million was liquidated across the network, with over 160,000 people being liquidated. The direct trigger was Trump's verbal criticism. In an interview, Trump said the U.S. is engaged in "deep negotiations" with Iran, has postponed strike plans, but at the same time warned that diplomatic channels are "very short-lived" and that military operations will resume if negotiations fail. Iran immediately denied that direct negotiations were underway. Geopolitical uncertainty makes the market run ahead as a precaution. The broader context is the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 policy meeting. CME data shows about a 64% probability of keeping rates unchanged, but the probability of a 25 basis point hike has risen to 36%, indicating the market is pricing in hawkish risks ahead of time. The profit-taking gains accumulated during the recent rebound have all flowed away, and combined with contract liquidations triggering chain liquidations, these factors have collectively contributed to this round of declines. The financial outlook is also bleak. The scale of Bitcoin spot ETF inflows has significantly narrowed, institutional funds have diverged, and there has been no large-scale bottom-fishing activity. Technically, the price has broken below the lower boundary of the previous range of the previous volatility range. The upper zone between 64,000-64,300 has become a resistance zone, while the core support below is at 62,800-63,000.
Two major events this week dominated the direction: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Trump's next steps in his verbal battles. Before the policy meeting, watch more and move less.The U.S. stock market has risen steadily from the bottom in 2023, driven not by a simple economic recovery, but by the AI revolution, tech capital spending, and valuation expansion driven by expectations of interest rate cuts.
But the market always follows a pattern: during the upward phase, you trade for imagination; in the top phase, you trade for cash-out.
From a technical structure perspective, the Nasdaq has now entered a key area.
After surging near 31,000, the index continued to fluctuate, forming a clear high-level arc structure. This indicates that the market is not without buying but rather that chasing funds are decreasing, and early profit-taking funds are gradually realizing.
It has now fallen to around 27,700, which has become the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. If it can hold here, the market still has a chance for high-level oscillation and recovery, challenging the 28,500-29,000 area again.
However, if 27,000 is effectively broken, it would mean the structure at the high level has been disrupted, and the market may further seek medium-term support near 25,500-26,000. The core of this adjustment is not just technical pullbacks, but the market beginning to reassess AI valuations.
Over the past two years, capital has believed: "AI will change the future." "So the market is willing to price in growth for the coming years in advance.
But now the question becomes: "When will the money invested in AI truly turn into profit?" ”
Giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are still investing heavily in AI infrastructure, but the capital market is starting to focus on a real issue: if massive capital expenditures cannot quickly translate into profit growth, then high valuations will need to be readjusted.
On the macro side, the market is also under pressure.
Fed rate cut expectations have already been traded in advance. If inflation fluctuates and high interest rates persist longer than expected, the most vulnerable will be high-valuation tech assets.
At the same time, global geopolitical risks, supply chain adjustments, and the need for capital as a safe-haven asset may also increase market volatility.
I believe the Nasdaq is very likely to enter a valuation digestion phase in the coming months. This is not the end of the AI rally, but rather the market is moving from "speculating on concepts" to "looking at profits."
The story of AI never ends, but stock prices will never keep rising as the story goes. The harshest part of the market is that when everyone believes it won't fall, the correction often begins; And real opportunities usually hide when others lose confidence.After Changxin Technology's IPO, don't just look at production capacity: 54% debt ratio coexists with 52 billion yuan in cash
Changxin Technology still ranks first on the OKX Planet hot list, with market discussions mostly focused on market share, IPO price, and AI memory narratives. For a capital-intensive DRAM manufacturer, I prefer to first examine liquidity: it can simultaneously hold a large amount of cash, strong operating cash flow, and a relatively high debt-to-asset ratio. These three factors are not contradictory and conclusions should not be drawn based on only one.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange prospectus shows that by the end of 2025, Changxin Technology will have approximately ¥51.99 billion in monetary funds, a consolidated debt-to-asset ratio of 54.24%, a current ratio of 2.10, and a quick ratio of 1.56. Compared to the end of 2024, the consolidated debt-to-asset ratio decreased from 61.61%, the current ratio increased from 1.19, and the quick ratio rose from 0.86. The company explains that the decrease in current liabilities is due to the reduction of long-term loans maturing within one year in 2025, which improved liquidity indicators.
However, compared to peer companies listed in the prospectus, Changxin's current and quick ratios remain below the peer average, while its debt-to-asset ratio is higher. The reason is not mysterious: DRAM requires continuous factory construction, equipment purchases, and R&D, and the company also uses debt financing to meet capital needs. This does not mean financial risk is out of control, nor that cash is sufficient to cover all future investments; what really matters is the matching of debt maturity, interest coverage, operating cash flow, and capital expenditures.
The net cash flow from operating activities in 2025 is about ¥36.52 billion, a significant increase from approximately ¥6.897 billion in 2024; the interest coverage ratio improved from negative 1.79 times in 2024 to 3.43 times. Inventory turnover also rose from 1.29 times to 1.44 times. These figures reflect improved operations and debt repayment ability that year, but when the DRAM cycle reverses, prices, inventory, and cash recovery may also change inversely, so one year's improvement should not be assumed permanent.
Going forward, I will track liquidity with a table including: monetary funds, short-term and long-term debt, current ratio, inventory turnover, operating cash flow, and capital expenditures. If capacity expansion is accompanied by improved inventory turnover, reduced debt ratio, and cash flow coverage, the financial structure can be considered healthier; if equipment investment accelerates but inventory rises and cash recovery declines, caution is warranted. Popular topics can attract attention, but what truly determines the resilience of capital-intensive enterprises remains the balance sheet and cash flow, not the stock price on a single day.
Improvement in inventory turnover must also be considered alongside inventory write-downs and product prices. During DRAM upcycles, rising prices may help digest inventory; during downcycles, the same inventory volume may face higher impairment risk. If official quarterly disclosures only show ending inventory without breakdowns, one cannot infer the proportions of wafers, work-in-progress, and finished goods. A large amount of cash may also correspond to equipment purchases and construction commitments, so available liquidity should be based on notes. The improvement in interest coverage ratio comes from changes in both profit and interest expenses; subsequent verification of borrowing costs is necessary rather than only observing a decline in debt ratio. After IPO financing inflows, cash and equity will change, and new reporting period figures should replace the prospectus baseline.❓ COTI已经上涨74.25%，为什么合约资金费率反而是负数？ 截至北京时间2026年7月28日11:31，Gate USDT永续合约涨幅榜显示，COTI位列第一： COTI/USDT：0.01286美元 24小时涨幅：+74.25% 24小时最高：0.01433美元 24小时最低：0.00738美元 24小时成交量：约5.003亿枚COTI 24小时成交额：约594.24万USDT 合约持仓规模：约4,923.98万合约单位 资金费率：-0.1291% 标记价格：0.01285美元 指数价格：0.01297美元 🔥 24小时区间几乎翻倍 COTI从0.00738美元上涨至最高0.01433美元，区间涨幅约94%。 现价已经较低点上涨74.25%，但距离日内最高点又回落了约10.3%。 这说明它确实强，但高位波动已经开始明显放大。 现在追进去，不是在低位埋伏，而是在一根接近翻倍的K线上，和止盈盘、追涨盘以及做空资金同时博弈。 🩳 最反常的数据：上涨74%，资金费率却为负 COTI当前资金费率约为-0.1291%。 通常情况下，负资金费率意味着合约市场做空需求较强，空头需要向多头支$MET /USDT is showing a strong recovery on the 1H chart after finding support near 0.1567. Buyers stepped in decisively, driving the price back to around 0.1705 and signaling renewed bullish momentum after the recent pullback.
The rebound has been supported by consecutive bullish candles, suggesting demand has returned. Even though the pair remains below the earlier swing high near 0.1812, the current structure shows improving strength as long as higher levels continue to hold.
If buying pressure continues, MET could challenge the next resistance zone in the sessions ahead. However, a period of consolidation would also be healthy after such a sharp recovery.
Do you think $MET /USDT has enough momentum to revisit 0.1812, or will buyers pause before the next move?
#OKXTraderVoices Why are some trades faster than yours?
The answer lies in the laws of physics.
Layer 1: Data Center Colocation
Placing servers in exchange data centers reduces the distance from a few kilometers to just a few dozen meters. A few meters short on fiber is just a few nanoseconds—in a world where nanoseconds determine victory, this is a dimensionality reduction strike.
Layer 2: Dedicated network access
Bypass the public internet and connect directly to the exchange's internal local area network. Losing one switch means leading in microseconds.
Layer 3: Kernel bypass technology
DPDK/Onload bypasses the Linux kernel protocol stack, skipping system calls and context switching. SolarFlare network card + SR-IOV virtualization, with VM-to-VM latency within 2μs, matching physical machines.
Exchanges have now become more sophisticated, directly selling "market local access" and "trading local access" services.
Ultimately, the essence of high-frequency trading is to squeeze every nanosecond within the limits allowed by physical laws.
Next time your order isn't filled, think about it—your data packet might have detoured three more routing nodes than your competitor.The central bank has never stopped buying gold, but why has gold rebounds been frequently hindered? During the roughly 28% drop from the January high, central bank purchases have never stopped. For reserve management institutions, price declines are only secondary factors in the execution process and do not negate gold purchase decisions. Central banks purchase gold based on policy mandates and asset diversification goals, rather than operating based on price momentum, so their behavior is exactly the opposite of that of ETF investors.
ETF holders tend to sell during rebounds to avoid losses; Sovereign institutions buy when prices fall, as their long-term allocation targets remain unchanged. Future purchase intentions are also supported by survey data, not mere speculation. A 2026 official department survey shows that a record 45% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves, and 89% expect global gold reserves to continue growing over the next twelve months.
Reserve authorities have made it clear that the main drivers are promoting asset diversification and reducing reliance on the US dollar. Data released by European official institutions in June also showed that gold's role in the global reserve system continues to expand.
This is precisely the institutional change that defines the current gold market.
In 2025, Western ETF buyers will determine the marginal price of gold; By 2026, they will become net sellers, with sovereign institutional demand becoming the market bottom. This buyer-side handover explains why even a 27% drop in gold hasn't completely destroyed the long-term structure, and why $4,000 has been able to hold every test.
At the same time, it also explains why rebounds are frequently blocked: sovereign institutions can provide price bottoms, but they do not chase rallies like trend capital. $XAU When the trajectory of crude oil futures suddenly hit near $82.62, all I saw in my scope was silence except for the smoke of the gunpowder.
The signal of ceasefire came from the White House, and the hands of the U.S. and Iranian negotiators had been holding hands under the table for 12 days—the moment Trump ordered the airstrikes on Iran to stop, the WTI shell shell collapsed by 8%. Now Brent crude is rolling from a high of $100 to around $88, like a crow struck by wings. The market predicts a 75% chance that both sides will sign a temporary ceasefire agreement before August 31. These odds, placed in sniper positions, are already the golden window to pull the trigger.
But there's another variable in my valuation model—$XMETA.
This US stock token has a correlation coefficient with crude oil prices in the past 48 hours from 0.3 to 0.78. Market sentiment is like wet ammunition—a spark can ignite it. I adjusted the knob on my scope, and the rangefinder showed that the current oil price expectation for XMETA had already factored in a one-time 8% drop. But the real risk is that once ceasefire talks break down, crude oil will quickly rebound above $90, and XMETA's short positions will be instantly squeezed. I've seen too many snipers pull their triggers early while the target is moving, only to be hit by stray bullets that counterattack.
Now I'm lying under the camouflage net, and the anemometer shows macro sentiment is shifting to dovish. Every word in the US-Iran talks was like a ruler; my finger rested on the trigger guard, no warm-up—the sniper's discipline is: no perfect profit or loss ratio, never let a bullet come out. XMETA's current price is at the midpoint of the target range, with 9% resistance upward and 6% support downward, but the price-to-loss ratio is only 1.5:1, which does not match my iron rule of a one-shot kill.
Continue to lurk. The trajectory of crude oil is still shaking, and there may be deeper mines hidden in the shadow of the ceasefire agreement. The US dollar index, the terms of the Iran nuclear deal, and Israel's security red lines are all unresolved wind bias parameters. Market sentiment is like a heatwave in the desert, distorting the sense of distance. I used the cross line of my scope to lock onto $XMETA's daily chip distribution and found that the main funds were quietly accumulating shares around $83.5—that was the rebound point left by my last shot.
They thought I had withdrawn. No, I'm just waiting for the wind to stop. #CeasefireHitsCrude 英文翻译
Why did $ETH TH suddenly plunge?
This sudden decline is often the result of resonance between macro sentiment, industry dynamics, and technical aspects:
1. Macro sentiment and rising risk aversion (core external factor)
Recently, global macroeconomic uncertainties have increased significantly, leading to a noticeable rise in market risk aversion. The repeated geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States, coupled with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, make investors more cautious when facing risky assets. In addition, the recent sharp correction in U.S. tech stocks and the AI sector has dragged down the overall performance of global risky assets, making it difficult for the cryptocurrency market to remain unaffected.
2. Short-term speculation triggered by industry dynamics (key clues in the picture)
"Lido initiates historic migration of US16 billion to optimize Ethereum performance."
In the long term, this is a positive development, but there are doubts in the short term: Lido is indeed migrating approximately US16.5 billion (over 8 million stETH) to the new validator architecture after the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which helps reduce the load on the Ethereum consensus layer and enhance security.
However, during such a large-scale migration, some investors may worry about potential smart contract risks or minor fluctuations in staking returns in the short term (expected annualized return compression of around 0.28%). Such uncertainty easily triggers short-term profit-taking or risk-averse selling.
3. Technical aspect: Profit-taking and leverage unwinding
ETH accumulated a significant number of short-term profitable positions when it rebounded above US$1,980. When the price failed to break through and the macro sentiment turned negative, major funds or large traders tended to dump the market to unwind highly leveraged long positions. This chain reaction of liquidations often accelerates the short-term decline.
💡 Subsequent operations and focus points for ETH
Key support level: 英文翻译
Why did $ETH H suddenly plunge?
This sudden decline is often the result of resonance between macro sentiment, industry dynamics, and technical aspects:
1. Macro sentiment and rising risk aversion (core external factor)
Recently, global macroeconomic uncertainties have increased significantly, leading to a noticeable rise in market risk aversion. The repeated geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States, coupled with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, make investors more cautious when facing risky assets. In addition, the recent sharp correction in U.S. tech stocks and the AI sector has dragged down the overall performance of global risky assets, making it difficult for the cryptocurrency market to remain unaffected.
2. Short-term speculation triggered by industry dynamics (key clues in the picture)
"Lido initiates historic migration of US16 billion to optimize Ethereum performance."
In the long term, this is a positive development, but there are doubts in the short term: Lido is indeed migrating approximately US16.5 billion (over 8 million stETH) to the new validator architecture after the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which helps reduce the load on the Ethereum consensus layer and enhance security.
However, during such a large-scale migration, some investors may worry about potential smart contract risks or minor fluctuations in staking returns in the short term (expected annualized return compression of around 0.28%). Such uncertainty easily triggers short-term profit-taking or risk-averse selling.
3. Technical aspect: Profit-taking and leverage unwinding
ETH accumulated a significant number of short-term profitable positions when it rebounded above US$1,980. When the price failed to break through and the macro sentiment turned negative, major funds or large traders tended to dump the market to unwind highly leveraged long positions. This chain reaction of liquidations often accelerates the short-term decline.
💡 Subsequent operations and focus points for ETH
Key support level: 英文翻译
Why did $ETH TH suddenly plunge?
This sudden decline is often the result of resonance between macro sentiment, industry dynamics, and technical aspects:
1. Macro sentiment and rising risk aversion (core external factor)
Recently, global macroeconomic uncertainties have increased significantly, leading to a noticeable rise in market risk aversion. The repeated geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States, coupled with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, make investors more cautious when facing risky assets. In addition, the recent sharp correction in U.S. tech stocks and the AI sector has dragged down the overall performance of global risky assets, making it difficult for the cryptocurrency market to remain unaffected.
2. Short-term speculation triggered by industry dynamics (key clues in the picture)
"Lido initiates historic migration of US16 billion to optimize Ethereum performance."
In the long term, this is a positive development, but there are doubts in the short term: Lido is indeed migrating approximately US16.5 billion (over 8 million stETH) to the new validator architecture after the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which helps reduce the load on the Ethereum consensus layer and enhance security.
However, during such a large-scale migration, some investors may worry about potential smart contract risks or minor fluctuations in staking returns in the short term (expected annualized return compression of around 0.28%). Such uncertainty easily triggers short-term profit-taking or risk-averse selling.
3. Technical aspect: Profit-taking and leverage unwinding
ETH accumulated a significant number of short-term profitable positions when it rebounded above US$1,980. When the price failed to break through and the macro sentiment turned negative, major funds or large traders tended to dump the market to unwind highly leveraged long positions. This chain reaction of liquidations often accelerates the short-term decline.
💡 Subsequent operations and focus points for ETH
Key support level: 最坚定的比特币买家，连续五周没买
截至7月26日当周，Strategy没有买卖BTC，持仓仍为843,775枚。这已经是连续第五周没有增持。
与此同时，公司出售约543万股MSTR，筹得约5.445亿美元，并把美元储备提高至37.5亿美元；公司称可覆盖约2.1年的优先股股息。
事实是资金优先流向流动性储备。推断上，这不必然代表看空BTC，更可能说明资本结构开始约束“无限增持”叙事。普通持币者容易忽略的，是股权稀释、股息和债务压力，而不是Saylor发了什么图。美股和BTC的联动，不是简单的跟涨跟跌，是三层逻辑嵌套在一起。在实战中重点关注微策略ETF，基本会同步BTC的走势！
第一层，时间错位带来的预判窗口。
美股交易时段在BTC的凌晨到早盘，美股收盘后的走势直接决定了BTC次日开盘的情绪基调。纳指跌1.5%，半导体指数跌4%，第二天韩股和BTC大概率同步承压。这不是猜测，是实打实的资金传导。7月20日韩股补跌4%，就是因为上周五美股半导体暴跌时韩股休市，第二天一次性把账补上。
实战中，我会在美股收盘后画一条线，纳指跌超1%，BTC在亚洲时段大概率低开，等低开企稳再动手。如果美股收盘前科技股出现V型反转，那BTC第二天的高开基本是确定的，提前挂单就行。
第二层，资金传导不是直线，但有迹可循。
美股和BTC的联动主要通过两个管道。管道一是宏观定价，美股跌，风险偏好下降，BTC被抽流动性。管道二是机构配置，美股里的科技资金和加密资金在同一个池子里，美股跌了需要补保证金，先卖BTC变现。
但有意思的是，7月17日存储股集体崩盘，费半指数单日跌4.3%，BTC反而没跟跌太多。这说明联动在松动，加密市场正在从科技股的影子变成独立的定价主体。实战中要观察BTC是否比科技股跌得少，如果出现背离，往往是短期见底的信号。
第三层，情绪传导比资金传导更快，但更容易骗人。
美股盘前数据、龙头股财报、美联储官员讲话，这些事件在美股开盘前就会通过期货市场传导到BTC。7月15日CPI数据公布后，纳指期货直线拉升，BTC同时从64000拉到66000，几乎是同步反应。但情绪传导来得快去得也快，容易出现假突破。
实战应对策略，关注美股盘前期货，纳斯达克100指数期货涨跌0.5%以上时，BTC通常会跟随同向波动。重要经济数据公布前后，不要提前挂单，等美股期货方向确认后再动手。如果美股大涨但BTC涨幅明显落后，说明短期背离正在形成，是反向操作的信号。#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH $BTC $DOGE The most outrageous cyclical stock bubble in history, cloaked in the guise of "structural AI demand." From 2025 to the first half of 2026, Samsung and SK Hynix surged through HBM and DRAM, with profit margins soaring to 70%+. SK Hynix once surpassed Nvidia's quarterly profits, with a market value surpassing one trillion dollars. KOSPI was dragged by these two companies to double its price, creating nationwide FOMO. And what happened? It peaked in June 2026 (close to 9400 points), and in July it crashed 25-30%, triggering multiple circuit breaks. Stock prices have plummeted, and the losses from retail buying haven't been completely wiped off. They are indeed making money, but their dividend yields are pitifully low (less than 1% for Samsung, even lower for SK Hynix), and almost all profits are invested in new capacity. Management enjoyed huge profits while continuing to expand production, betting that the "shortage will last until 2030." History tells you: every "this time is different" super cycle in the storage industry ends with overcapacity, prices halved, and company losses. The current valuation has already eaten up the perfect profits for 2027-2028 ahead of schedule. If cloud providers slow down or new capacity is concentrated in rollout in mid to late 2027, price peaks will inevitably occur. Morgan Stanley has already warned that Q4 contract prices may peak, and the momentum for earnings upward revisions is weakening. The vast majority of "growth stories" ultimately prove to be money-making tools. The company goes public/shares and gets your money → Management tells stories, expands, burns cash → The stock price is propped up by narrative and capital buying → Once the story doesn't materialize, the stock price is halved, shareholders lose money on paper, and the original shareholders and management have already reduced their holdingsThe U.S. stock market has risen steadily from the bottom in 2023, driven not by a simple economic recovery, but by the AI revolution, tech capital spending, and valuation expansion driven by expectations of interest rate cuts.
But the market always follows a pattern: during the upward phase, you trade for imagination; in the top phase, you trade for cash-out.
From a technical structure perspective, the Nasdaq has now entered a key area.
After surging near 31,000, the index continued to fluctuate, forming a clear high-level arc structure. This indicates that the market is not without buying but rather that chasing funds are decreasing, and early profit-taking funds are gradually realizing.
It has now fallen to around 27,700, which has become the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. If it can hold here, the market still has a chance for high-level oscillation and recovery, challenging the 28,500-29,000 area again.
However, if 27,000 is effectively broken, it would mean the structure at the high level has been disrupted, and the market may further seek medium-term support near 25,500-26,000. The core of this adjustment is not just technical pullbacks, but the market beginning to reassess AI valuations.
Over the past two years, capital has believed: "AI will change the future." "So the market is willing to price in growth for the coming years in advance.
But now the question becomes: "When will the money invested in AI truly turn into profit?" ”
Giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are still investing heavily in AI infrastructure, but the capital market is starting to focus on a real issue: if massive capital expenditures cannot quickly translate into profit growth, then high valuations will need to be readjusted.
Stories can drive prices up, but ultimately, performance will pay the price.
On the macro side, the market is also under pressure.
Fed rate cut expectations have already been traded in advance. If inflation fluctuates and high interest rates persist longer than expected, the most vulnerable will be high-valuation tech assets.
At the same time, global geopolitical risks, supply chain adjustments, and the need for capital as a safe-haven asset may also increase market volatility.
I believe the Nasdaq is very likely to enter a valuation digestion phase in the coming months.
This is not the end of the AI rally, but rather the market is moving from "speculating on concepts" to "looking at profits."
Key locations:
Pressure: 28,500-29,000
Strong pressure: 30,000-31,000
Support: 27,000
Key medium-term support: 25,500-26,000
The story of AI never ends, but stock prices will never keep rising as the story goes. The harshest part of the market is that when everyone believes it won't fall, the correction often begins; And real opportunities usually hide when others lose confidence.Hyperliquid's SKHX Flash Crash Triggers Massive Liquidations
Hyperliquid's $SKHX plunged 17.9% in a sudden flash crash this morning, with liquidations over the past 4 hours reportedly exceeding Binance. 😨
The move was triggered after a fat-finger trade during South Korea's NXT pre-market, where 1 share of SK Hynix was mistakenly executed at ₩1,272,000 (~$867). Thin liquidity caused the stock to briefly crash nearly 30%, triggering a trading halt.
Hyperliquid's oracle quickly reflected the abnormal price, causing SKHX to plunge. Arbitrage activity then spread the move to Binance, leading to a temporary market-wide price dislocation.
$SKHYNIX
Prices have since returned to normal, but it remains unclear whether traders liquidated during the flash crash will receive any compensation.
👀 The incident highlights the risks of oracle-driven synthetic assets, especially during periods of low liquidity and abnormal price prints.❓ SPY was clearly up 0.02%, so why do chip stock holders seem to be experiencing a major crash? Because of the calm of the index, it successfully masked the intense internal divisions. As of the US stock market close on July 27, 2026: SPY: $739.09, +0.02% QQQ: $682.12, -0.31% DIA: $521.26, +0.48% AAPL: $336.91, +1.17% NVDA: $196.51, -4.99% TSLA: $309.22, -1.22% SNDK: $1,278.23, -11.02% 💥 Index did not collapse, Chip stocks were first precisely smashed: Nvidia fell 4.99% in a single day, with a trading volume of about 154 million shares, and its stock price directly dropping below $200. SanDisk's performance was even worse: down 11.02% in a single day, down $158.33, with a trading volume of about 21.2759 million shares. This is not a random pullback for a small stock, but rather a high-volatility hardware sector facing selling pressure simultaneously. But until a clear and unified negative news is verified, one cannot simply attribute the decline to a single piece of news. What the market can confirm is that funds are actively reducing risk exposure to some high-valuation chips and storage targets. 🍎 The money hasn't left the US stock market, just changed seats. Apple rose 1.17%, Dow ETF rose 0.48%, and SPY closed basically flat. This shows that market funds are not fleeing entirely, but are choosing a new direction:#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
Today, the global memory market script is particularly contradictory.
Changxin Technology opened at 49.5 yuan on its first day on the STAR Market, rising more than 470%, with a market value soaring to 3.3 trillion yuan, directly becoming the top of the A-share market. The intraday turnover broke 140 billion yuan, a historical record. One lot earned 20,000 yuan, with 9.42 million investors participating in the IPO. It earned 33 billion yuan in one quarter, with an expected net profit of 50 to 57 billion yuan in the first half of the year. Its global DRAM market share rose from 4.7% to 7.6%, ranking fourth worldwide.
Then look at South Korea. The KOSPI opened down 1.8%, once triggered a circuit breaker during the session, SK Hynix fell more than 2%, Samsung fell 0.8%. On Monday, it rebounded symbolically by less than 1%, but on Tuesday it crashed again—Tuesday morning KOSPI dropped over 8%, marking the eighth circuit breaker this year. SK Hynix fell over 10%, Samsung Electronics fell over 8%.
Two markets, the same industry, completely opposite trends.
Changxin's rise logic lies in the A-share market pricing it as "China's only DRAM original manufacturer," highlighting its scarcity, while the domestic memory sector is also rising, with the market betting that its fundraising will drive upstream equipment and materials. The logic behind the Korean stock decline is intensified global memory competition—Changxin's market cap has grown, taking market share from Samsung and Hynix. Plus, Changxin's fundraising will expand production, meaning future supply will only increase.
What’s even more contradictory is that the fundamentals of memory haven't collapsed; since the beginning of the year, South Korea's semiconductor exports remain at historic highs. But international market funds are voting on the logic of "Changxin's listing + intensified competition," and Changxin's gains are precisely the flip side of the competitors' declines.
One market is celebrating domestic substitution, while the other is pricing in competitive pressure. Both sides have their reasons, but they can't both be right. 英文翻译
Why did $ETH suddenly plunge?
This sudden decline is often the result of resonance between macro sentiment, industry dynamics, and technical aspects:
1. Macro sentiment and rising risk aversion (core external factor)
Recently, global macroeconomic uncertainties have increased significantly, leading to a noticeable rise in market risk aversion. The repeated geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States, coupled with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, make investors more cautious when facing risky assets. In addition, the recent sharp correction in U.S. tech stocks and the AI sector has dragged down the overall performance of global risky assets, making it difficult for the cryptocurrency market to remain unaffected.
2. Short-term speculation triggered by industry dynamics (key clues in the picture)
"Lido initiates historic migration of US16 billion to optimize Ethereum performance."
In the long term, this is a positive development, but there are doubts in the short term: Lido is indeed migrating approximately US16.5 billion (over 8 million stETH) to the new validator architecture after the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which helps reduce the load on the Ethereum consensus layer and enhance security.
However, during such a large-scale migration, some investors may worry about potential smart contract risks or minor fluctuations in staking returns in the short term (expected annualized return compression of around 0.28%). Such uncertainty easily triggers short-term profit-taking or risk-averse selling.
3. Technical aspect: Profit-taking and leverage unwinding
ETH accumulated a significant number of short-term profitable positions when it rebounded above US$1,980. When the price failed to break through and the macro sentiment turned negative, major funds or large traders tended to dump the market to unwind highly leveraged long positions. This chain reaction of liquidations often accelerates the short-term decline.
💡 Subsequent operations and focus points for ETH
Key support level: According to Hyperinsight monitoring, at 7 a.m. Beijing time today, Hyperliquid's SKHX quickly dropped from $1,128.2 to $927. This spike occurred during the pre-market low liquidity session of South Korea's NXT, with extreme transaction quotes transmitted via oracles to the mark price and triggering chain liquidations.
In the past 4 hours, SKHX's total liquidation across the entire network was about $79.398 million, with all the top liquidations being long positions. Meanwhile, the open interest in SKHX on Hyperliquid dropped from 410,700 yesterday afternoon to 353,600 contracts, a decrease of about 57,100 contracts, a decline of 13.9%; At mark-up prices, the nominal value of the position dropped from about $508 million to $388 million, a 23.5% decrease.
Trading volume accompanied by flash drops and passive volume increase. SKHX's trading volume in the past 24 hours has reached $901 million, about 2.3 times the current nominal open interest value, indicating that a large number of positions were forced to close or quickly switch positions during pin insertion and rebound periods.
Re-examined by Hyperinsight:
0x2ba Starting address: Faced 3 consecutive forced liquidations, with a total of 6,418 SKHX liquidations at about $6.166 million, resulting in a loss of about $1.368 million;
0xef8 Starting address: After reducing market positions by about $910,100,000, the remaining $3.7418 million position is taken over by the system, with a liquidation scale of about $4.651 million and a loss of about $1.3133 million;
0x320 Starting address: Experienced 4 consecutive forced liquidations, with a total of 4,230 liquidations totaling about 3.957 million USD, recording a loss of about 2.045 million USD, making it the largest loss.
The top three addresses on the above liquidation list collectively liquidated about $14.7754 million, recording losses of about $4.7281 million. #韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day Overnight in Beijing time during the US stock after-hours session, the storage sector experienced a brutal sell-off, with SanDisk's intraday maximum drop exceeding 15%, and trading volume significantly increased. Not only SanDisk, the entire storage sector was under pressure: SK Hynix ADR fell below its issue price, and Micron and Western Digital followed suit with declines.
Many investors were confused: Previously, driven by AI computing power demand, NAND flash prices kept rising, and SanDisk had an epic rally this year. Why did the stock price plunge sharply on a night with no sudden negative news?
The crash was not caused by a single piece of news; it was a confluence of emotional triggers + cyclical expectation shifts + loosening capital structure. Let's break it down layer by layer:
1. Direct trigger: ChangXin Technology's IPO leads the market to reprice the global storage competition landscape
The most direct emotional catalyst for the sector-wide sell-off was the domestic storage leader ChangXin Technology's listing on the STAR Market, which surged sharply on its first day. The capital market began to trade on a long-term logic: accelerated release of domestic storage capacity will continuously challenge the overseas storage giants' monopoly. After completing fundraising, ChangXin accelerated its expansion plan, steadily increasing DRAM capacity and planning to continue expanding in the NAND sector. Capital started to worry: global storage supply pressure will rise over the next 2–3 years, casting doubt on the sustainability of NAND price increases. The market began to revise previously overly optimistic profit expectations, and high-level storage stocks were the first to face capital flight.
⚠️ Important distinction: ChangXin's listing was only the emotional trigger, not the fundamental cause of the decline. The short-term capacity release of a single company cannot immediately change current supply and demand; the real sell-off was caused by the market's reversal of "long-term cycle" expectations.
2. Core internal cause: Huge prior gains, massive profit-taking concentrated, triggering multiple sell-offs
SanDisk's rally this round was astonishing, with the stock price nearly multiplying since its spin-off from Western Digital last year, becoming one of the strongest US stock sector leaders in 2026.
1. In recent months, the market had fully priced in all positives: AI servers driving enterprise NAND demand, continuous flash price increases, and rising gross margins;
2. The sector's chips were highly concentrated, with institutions, hedge funds, and short-term funds holding large positions. The stock price was at historical highs, so any slight emotional loosening led profit-taking funds to cash out first;
3. After-hours liquidity is weaker than regular US trading hours. In a low-liquidity environment, concentrated selling easily amplifies volatility, turning slight selling pressure into an extreme drop exceeding 15%.
Simply put: the positives were already priced in, and the market entered a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" phase.
3. Major divergence in industry expectations: NAND price increase narrative questioned
Previously, the core logic supporting SanDisk's stock price was: AI generates massive cold and warm data storage demand, global NAND supply is tight, and chip prices keep rising. But recently, institutional views have diverged significantly:
1. Multiple research firms warned that consumer PC and smartphone demand remains weak, consumer SSD demand is persistently soft, relying solely on AI data center demand;
2. Overseas storage giants prioritize capacity for higher-margin HBM memory, but with upcoming capital expenditures, general NAND capacity is expected to gradually increase;
3. Capital started to worry: if supply continues to expand in 2027, the current flash price cycle may have peaked. Storage is a strongly cyclical industry; once price growth slows, company earnings and valuations will face double pressure.
The market previously assumed "storage price increases would continue long-term," but now capital is betting on an earlier cycle turning point.
4. Sector chain negative feedback, risk appetite declines, cyclical stocks sold first
The overall semiconductor sector weakened overnight, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sharply retreating. Capital rotation path is clear: profit-taking in high-level hardware cyclical sectors, shifting funds to defensive assets or AI application sectors. The storage sector, with high volatility and strong cyclical characteristics, is always the first to be reduced when market risk aversion rises. Coupled with SK Hynix's recent IPO breaking below issue price, panic in the storage sector was further amplified, triggering linked sector-wide sell-offs.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, with the Korean stock market crashing and Changxin topping the A-share market, is this a story of two extremes?
Pharaoh directly says, two markets, one is deleveraging, the other is setting a benchmark, both driven by AI narratives that are repricing assets.
On the Korean stock side, it's brutal.
The KOSPI opened today down 5.3%, then widened to 8%, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading for 20 minutes. SK Hynix plunged over 11% at one point, Samsung Electronics dropped over 9%. This is the eighth circuit breaker this year, averaging one every 19 trading days. The core issue is the index's heavy concentration in Samsung and SK Hynix, which together once accounted for over 60% of KOSPI's total market cap. When these stocks collapse, the whole market follows.
There are three layers of pressure behind this: rising oil prices pushing inflation, the Bank of Korea raising interest rates, and doubts about the sustainability of AI capital support. The market is starting to worry that Nvidia's "recycling financing" model can't support AI infrastructure at the $750 billion scale, and debt risk is being repriced.
Looking at the A-share market, Changxin Technology became a legend on its first day.
Issue price was ¥8.66, closed at ¥49, up 465.82%, with a total market cap of ¥3.28 trillion, topping the A-share market cap rankings, and a turnover of ¥141.1 billion, making it the first A-share stock to break ¥100 billion in single-day turnover. It surpassed Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Kweichow Moutai, and even Intel's market cap.
Changxin is the only domestic company to achieve mass production of DRAM. This IPO raised ¥57.9 billion, the largest in the STAR Market's history. Institutions believe its listing is not just a financing event but a key milestone for domestic memory to accelerate technology iteration through capital markets, potentially starting the transition from import dependence to independent and controllable domestic memory.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Two markets, two logics, but both point to the same direction—the global AI asset valuations are being reassessed. Korean stocks' deleveraging is a short-term pain, Changxin's rise is the establishment of a long-term narrative. Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, will fluctuate short-term with US tech stocks. In the medium term, if the AI narrative stabilizes and risk appetite recovers, Bitcoin will benefit. If AI bubble concerns continue to ferment, Bitcoin will also take a hit.
Pharaoh still says, good trades are waited for, not chased.
Follow Pharaoh, and wealth won't get lost! $ETH $BTC $SOL #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 The US stock market experienced a major split: Apple reclaimed the throne, and chip stocks were pinned to the ground
This market is probably giving you a headache. Last night, US stocks closed with indices seemingly calm, with the S&P 500 nearly flat at 7,413 points, but undercurrents are brewing underneath. To put it simply: money is escaping from AI hardware and squeezing into consumer technology.
(1) Explosive "high-low cut": Apple tops the charts, NVIDIA suffers setbacks
The biggest highlight might be the one going viral in your social circle—Apple's market value (4.95 trillion) has surpassed Nvidia (4.76 trillion), reclaiming the world's top spot.
Last night, Apple rose 1.17%, hitting a new high, while neighboring Nvidia plunged nearly 5%, giving up almost all the rebound since June. The market attitude is clear: Apple's "conservative AI" strategy (renting computing power) is more favored by capital than Nvidia's "crazy spending money" closed loop.
(2) Why are chip stocks (SanDisk/AMD) getting hit?
Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.23%, SanDisk dropped over 11%, and AMD also dropped 5%+.
There are three reasons: first, Nvidia is offering OpenAI $250 billion in financing guarantees to lease data centers, and this "circular financing" model has sparked market anxiety about the break-even cycle for AI capital expenditures; Second, Goldman Sachs bluntly stated that the S&P 500's stagnation over the past two months stems from the market's uncertainty about whether AI infrastructure spending can be sustained; Third, last night there were reports that China's storage and lithography machines are pushing for self-sufficiency, which has become the last straw that breaks the camel's back.
JPMorgan believes there are short-term "buy signals," but also admits that semiconductor stock trading is too crowded. The current market theme can be summed up in two words: escaping AI hardware.
(3) Oil prices crashed (-8%), but the Nasdaq didn't rise—that's the real problem
Last night, oil prices plunged 8% in a single day, which logically was favorable for rate cuts, but the Nasdaq opened higher and turned negative. This shows that capital is no longer interested in the profitability prospects of tech stocks. The market is now focused on two things: can the tech giants' earnings hold up? And will the Fed's Walsh suddenly pull off a "surprise rate hike"? The latter part is the real thunder.The Big Three's golden era just entered its countdown.
Don't be fooled by the "domestic substitution" narrative. CXMT's real kill shot isn't that China can now make DRAM. It's that the thirty-year "cut production, defend prices" game is finished.
Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron. Three decades of profits built not on technology, but on默契. Cut together in downturns, feast together on the rebound. No fourth player existed to steal your plate while you dieted.
Now a fourth has sat down. And he's not here to follow rules.
CXMT has 58 billion in cash and the Hefei government at its back. You think they'll cooperate on price defense? Don't be naive. They want market share. They want to shove Samsung out of China's phone supply chain. Profits? That's a problem for later.
Next DRAM winter, when Samsung announces capex cuts, what will CXMT do? Expand. Double down. Because your retreat is his advance.
And then there's AI, the chaos agent.
HBM margins are too fat. Samsung and SK Hynix are frantically shifting lines. Standard DRAM? Put it on hold. Result: commodity memory supply tightens. And CXMT lays eggs in that gap like crazy. Not fighting you in the HBM premium league. Just eating the mid-to-low-end market you're too busy to defend.
By the time the Big Three look back, the new guy's already built a fortress in your backyard.
For phone makers and server manufacturers, this is a gift. An extra supplier. Bargaining power. No more groveling before Samsung's pricing demands.
But if you hold Samsung or SK Hynix stock, fasten your seatbelt. A pie once shared by three now feeds four—and the newcomer doesn't care what that pie sells for this quarter.
CXMT's IPO isn't China's chip victory. It's what happens when a cozy thirty-year oligopoly club gets its first member who refuses to follow the script.
$SKHYNIX The company that believes in BTC the most hasn't bought coins for five consecutive weeks
Strategy currently still holds 843,775 BTC, but has not made further purchases for five consecutive weeks.
More notably, it recently sold about 5.4 million shares of MSTR, raising approximately $544.5 million, while raising its dollar reserves to $3.75 billion.
When you look at these numbers together, it's quite interesting.
The most firm belief in Bitcoin that people say now starts seriously keeping cash on their balance sheets.
The average cost of BTC held by Strategy is about $75,476, while BTC is still around $63,000. A rough calculation shows that there is already a $10 billion gap between this batch of positions and costs.
But I don't think this necessarily means it's bearish on BTC.
A more likely explanation is: when a company is burdened with dividends on preferred shares and debt interest, whether it can survive the trough is far more important than whether it dares to keep shouting.
Retail investors like to discuss beliefs, while institutions prioritize cash flow.
What really debates the debate is:
Strategy: Is it currently holding large amounts of dollars to survive the downturn and continue bottom-fishing, or has it already recognized risks that ordinary people have yet to realize?
If even the most aggressive BTC buyers start holding back, would you see it as an opportunity or a warning?
This does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #机构持仓The good days for the three storage giants have officially entered the countdown.
Don't be fooled by any "domestic substitution" narrative. The real impact of Changxin going public is not that China can now make DRAM — it's that the "production cut to maintain prices" trick that's been running for thirty years can no longer be played.
How have Samsung, Hynix, and Micron made money over the past thirty years? Not through technology, but through tacit understanding. When the industry lagged, they cut capacity together, stabilized prices, and shared the profits. After all, there were only three players at the table, so no one had to worry about being undercut when cutting production.
Now a fourth player has taken a seat, and this player doesn't intend to follow the rules.
Changxin holds 58 billion in cash and is backed by the Hefei government. Do you think they will cooperate with you to protect profits? Don't be ridiculous. What they want is market share, to squeeze Samsung out of the Chinese mobile phone supply chain. Profits? That's a matter for later.
When the next DRAM winter comes and Samsung says it will cut capital expenditures, what will Changxin do? Expand production. Increase expansion. Because your retreat is their advance.
You think that's all? There's also AI stirring the pot.
HBM is too profitable; Samsung and Hynix have frantically shifted production lines over. Standard DRAM? Put that on hold. The result is that the supply of general-purpose memory has actually tightened. Changxin is laying eggs wildly in this gap. They don't compete with you in the high-end HBM market but focus on the mid-to-low-end market you can't afford to clean up.
By the time the three giants come to their senses, Changxin will have already built fortresses in your backyard.
This is great news for phone manufacturers and server makers. With an additional supplier, you have stronger bargaining power and no longer have to watch Samsung's face.
But if you hold stocks in Samsung or Hynix, please fasten your seatbelt. Four players are dividing one cake, and the newcomer simply doesn't care how much that cake sells for in the short term.
Changxin going public doesn't mean Chinese chips have won. It means a comfortable oligopoly club that has lasted thirty years now has a ruthless player who doesn't play by the script. $SKHYNIX 🌍 $LAB | Crypto Isn't Just Watching Charts—It's Watching Global Trade
While most traders are focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum, one of the biggest macro stories is unfolding far from the crypto market.
Recent tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have once again put global energy supply chains in the spotlight. The waterway remains one of the world's most important oil shipping routes, and proposals involving transit fees, alongside renewed geopolitical friction, have raised concerns about higher transport costs and supply disruptions—even though the original 20% fee proposal was later dropped in favour of trade and investment discussions.
Why does this matter for crypto?
⚡ Rising energy costs could fuel inflation.
🚢 More expensive shipping may increase pressure on global supply chains.
💵 Central banks could keep financial conditions tighter for longer.
📉 Risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, often face headwinds when liquidity becomes scarce.
In the short term, uncertainty may encourage investors to reduce exposure to volatile assets. But over the longer run, if inflation remains persistent and confidence in traditional financial systems weakens, digital assets such as Bitcoin could once again strengthen their appeal as alternative stores of value.
For $LAB, the key isn't just token-specific news—it's understanding how global macro events influence liquidity across the entire crypto market.
The next major move may not begin on a trading chart. It could start with the next headline from global energy markets.
$LAB $BTC #ETH #Crypto #Macro #Oil #StraitOfHormuz#FOMCRateWatch #CeasefireHitsCrude BTC跌破64000，多头暂时放弃！BTC跌破64000后，短线结构已经转弱。
昨天多头反弹没有成功，价格重新回到压力下方，说明上方卖盘依然很强。
现在不要急着抄底，先跟随短线趋势
今日操作：BTC反弹做空
空单进场：63800-6420 止损：64800
止盈目标：第一目标：62500
第二目标：62000
逻辑：日线跌破关键位置，短线空头力量释放，MACD转弱，市场需要继续消化多头筹码
如果BTC不能重新站回64000上方，反弹更多是给空头机会。
交易不要猜底，顺着资金方向做——凯文老师#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 $BTC 🚀 New Feature Update: ERC-20 Wrapping Is Live!
You can now wrap and unwrap ERC-20 tokens and add them to Fake World Assets.
✅ Support for PNKSTR is now available with flexible token amounts, making it easier to experiment, test, and manage wrapped assets.
As the ecosystem grows, expanding support for more Ethereum assets could unlock even more possibilities.
Which ERC-20 token should be added next?
My picks:
🔹 $LINK
🔹 $AAVE
🔹 $UNI
🔹 $LDO
🔹 $ENA
Drop your suggestions below! 👇
#Ethereum #ERC20 #DeFi #Web3 $ETH $LINK $AAVE $UNIThe Korean index experienced its eighth circuit breaker this year, dropping over 8%. SK Hynix plunged over 10%, and Samsung Electronics fell over 9%. These two stocks account for nearly 60% of KOSPI's market value. If they collapse, the entire index will collapse as well. $SNDK $SKHYNIX Where is the problem? It's exactly the same logic as in the crypto world. Retail investors make up the majority of trading volume in the Korean stock market, and it's all high-leverage ETFs pushing in. Leveraged ETFs account for over 70% of daily trading volume. Whenever the stock price drops, it becomes a mechanical stampede—the more it falls, the more it sells, the more it falls, and the more it falls, unable to stop. $BTC Will BTC crash along with it? Let's start with the market surface. BTC just fell from above 65,000 to near 63,000, which is related to the Korean stock market circuit breaker, but it is not the main reason for its decline. You need to figure out the two transmission chains. The first is risk appetite resonance. When Korean stocks crash, Asia-Pacific markets panic, crypto assets, as high-risk assets, will be easily dumped. The second point is that Korean retail investors have contracted. South Korea is one of the world's top three crypto trading markets, and the domestic stock market crash has directly weakened their ammunition and courage to increase their holdings in the crypto sector. But what really pushed BTC down was something bigger. News of a US-Iran ceasefire has caused oil prices to plummet, and the market has repriced inflation and interest rate hike expectations. The Fed is set to announce its results on Thursday. Although the probability of a rate hike is low, Walsh's mouth is famously hawkish. Funds dare not gamble, so they want to withdraw first and see what happens. Short or Long? Sister Mutou explained things clearly. The Korean stock market circuit breaker issue is a short-term emotional drag on BTC, but it is not the decisive factor. The key is to focus on two positions: if 63,000 can't be held,Yesterday, $RESOLV unlocked another 3% of the supply, and each unlock usually means a 20% drop—should you leave?
1. Many people don't pay much attention to token unlocking, but it's actually the hidden killer behind long-term market sell-offs. RESOLV's unlock schedule starts at TGE on May 27, 2025, and ends on November 27, 2028, with the token unlocking on the 27th of each month, causing the token price to plummet.
2. Here's the data for everyone to look at: it opened at 4.4% on January 27, but dropped 50.2% in 14 days; On May 27, it unlocked 8.9%, dropping 29.7% in 11 days; On June 27, it was unlocked at 8.2%, but dropped 16.9% in four days.
3. Why does unlocking cause a sell-off? Because most of the unlocked tokens are given to institutions and insiders. These people have extremely low costs; unlocking is the shipping window. A large number of tokens flooded the market, buying couldn't hold up, and prices naturally fell.
4. Yesterday's unlock was all tokens from three parties: private investors (29.4%), insiders (28.3%), and the community (42.3%). It seems institutions and insiders are very likely to sell, so it's best to avoid them.