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$PUMP After unlocking, the price rebounded—what is the capital market trading? Unlike most VC coins with large unlocks, PUMP has not declined steadily; instead, it has rebounded. According to OKX spot market data, as of 18:00 Beijing time on July 30, PUMP/USDT was trading at about 0.001889 USDT, up about 0.85% in 24 hours, with a range high of 0.001932 and a low of 0.001809, and a turnover of about $3.22 million. On July 15, the UTC daily line opened at 0.001513 and closed at 0.001689. Compared to the opening that day, the current price is still about 24.9% higher, but it has fallen about 13.5% from the stage high of 0.002185 on July 27. So a "contrarian rise" can be valid, but the increase mainly occurs within the two weeks after unlocking; currently, it is not a single-day surge spurge. The supply pressure is indeed significant. On July 12, about 82.5 billion PUMP were locked up; On July 15, another 57.279 billion were distributed to 121 team and investor wallets. In one week, the total was close to 140 billion, accounting for about 14% of the total supply of 1 trillion. Entering a tradable state does not mean you have already sold; the market should focus on whether these receiving addresses continue to transfer coins to exchanges. Is the price holding up related to buyback and destruction? Pump.fun adjusted the mechanism at the end of April: over the next year, 50% of net income from bonding curve, PumpSwap, and Terminal will be sent to irreversible smart contracts, automatically repurchasing and burning PUMP from the market; The remaining 50% will be reserved for products, recruitment, marketing, and potential acquisitions. Previously repurchased tokens have also been collectively burned, with the project team claiming the scale accounts for about 36% of the circulating supply at that time. These buyback and burns have already produced observable data. According to DefiLlama statistics as of July 29, Pump.fun revenue over the past 30 days was about $20.59 million, of which about $14.96 million was included in holder income corresponding to PUMP buybacks; and about $675,000 in the most recent day. As long as the platform still has trading and fees, buybacks will continue to create buying opportunities and steadily reduce circulating supply. Pump.fun earns money from Meme trading activity. Based on DefiLlama's current historical timeline, the platform's average daily revenue in 2025 is about $1.6 million, and since 2026 it has dropped to about $788,000—a drop of roughly half. When the market cools, new coin issuance, turnover, and fees all shrink together, and the buyback budget shrinks accordingly. It buffers supply and does not create demand for the platform. PUMP's continued pricing depends on the data to come: net transfers from unlock addresses to exchanges, Pump.fun revenue and buyback burn amounts, new coin graduation rate, and PumpSwap trading volume. PUMP aims to defend the moat of Meme trading. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Many people think that a drop in stock prices is necessarily due to the industry's downgrade. But this time, the adjustment of the storage stock might be exactly the opposite. The truly dangerous moments are often not when the company has problems, but when the company is so good that the market has already bought in all the growth for the next few years in advance. Micron and SK Hynix continue to report strong earnings, and demand for AI infrastructure has not disappeared. Microsoft and Meta continue to increase AI capital expenditure, meaning demand for GPUs, HBM, and storage remains strong. But capital market transactions have never been just about "good or bad," but about "whether things are better than the market imagines." When a company delivers near-perfect results but its stock price fails to break out, it usually means one thing: Market expectations have already outpaced reality. The upcoming correction is not necessarily a denial of AI or a denial of storage cycles, but rather a search for a reasonable price. The biggest fear in high-growth industries isn't the lack of stories, but the fact that the stories are too perfect. Because when everyone believes the future will be better, anything that falls short of expectations can become a reason to sell. So the real question the market cares about right now isn't: "Does AI still need storage?" Instead: "Does the current stock price already reflect an overly perfect AI future?" That's always how the investment market is. The most likely time to get hurt isn't when bad news is everywhere, but when everyone feels they understand the future. AI Agents can help us organize information faster, but they cannot control greed for us. Ultimately, what determines whether a trade can survive is never your bullish judgment, but your cost, position, and whether you can stay clear-headed during the wildest market moments. #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading #美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain? $MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX Last night in the early morning, the Federal Reserve meeting for July: interest rates stayed unchanged But some people inside are already anxious The vote was 9 to 3, with 3 people directly saying: this time we should raise rates! This is the key point The statement was the usual: the economy is still okay, jobs are still available, but inflation just won't come down. Oil prices and Middle East issues are still causing trouble In plain terms: it's not bad enough yet to need rescue, the Fed's biggest fear is inflation sticking around again Chairman Powell spoke firmly: the target is 2%, no "close enough" And deliberately gave few hints, not telling you what the next step will be The meaning is simple: don't expect me to ease early, watch the data yourself The market was confused: no script to follow, just staring at data and guessing blindly every day After the meeting, US stocks fell directly, especially tech stocks and AI-related ones, facing more pressure What everyone fears is not that there was no rate cut this time But that: rate cuts might still be far off, high rates will last longer, and if inflation rises again, there could be more rate hikes later. This is quite damaging to tech stocks; AI is still good long-term, but when rates are high, valuations suffer Next, watch three things: · Whether inflation data will continue to fall · Whether oil prices and the Middle East will cause more trouble · Whether US Treasury yields will continue to pressure tech stocks Summary: This meeting is neither good news nor a big negative. It’s just telling you—don’t expect rate cuts too early The Fed now just wants to push inflation back to 2% If inflation doesn’t come down, no matter how strong tech stocks are, they will be held down by interest rates Brothers, after this earnings report, Microsoft became the only big tech company to rise, soaring 8% after hours. What exactly is driving this? On the surface, Azure's growth rate pulled up to 43%, the full-year cloud business broke $100 billion, and revenue hit $90 billion, up 18%—sounds impressive. But what really eased the market and sent the stock price soaring was the number dropped by the CFO: calendar year 2026 capital expenditure is about 175 billion. Three months ago, expectations were still 190 billion, so hearing "150 billion less spending" triggered a reflex that "finally, no more crazy spending." But the truth is: no money was actually spent less. This 15 billion difference is all accounting magic! Starting fiscal year 2027, Microsoft extended the depreciation period for data centers and office buildings from 15 years directly to 25 years. With the longer period, many newly signed data center leases shifted from "finance leases" to "operating leases," directly moving them out of CapEx statistics. The actual cash spent, data centers built, and GPUs bought—none of it decreased. Microsoft itself still has nearly 330 billion in unleased lease commitments in its 10-K. This quarter's actual CapEx (including leases) was 41 billion, a year-over-year surge of 70%, and next quarter's guidance is "over 50 billion," showing no signs of slowing down. Looking at orders: excluding the sky-high long-term OpenAI deal, actual growth is about 25%. Free cash flow even dropped 23% in a single quarter. In summary: Microsoft has indeed proven it can sell computing power, but the 8% market rise is essentially paying for the optical effect of "shifting some expenses out of the capital expenditure category." This is not a slowdown in spending; it's clearly a huge check spread out over several years. This AI infrastructure wave is highly related to our Crypto circle's data center and computing power narrative. Next time someone brags "big companies are starting to restrain CapEx," remember to ask first: does that include finance leases? Has the depreciation period changed? #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% BlockInfinity Evening Market Report · After Fed Day Bloodbath, $ETH BTC in Large Range Stalemate 🌍 Macro Environment US Stocks Fed Day Bloodbath: Dow -2.19% (-1153 points, worst single day since April 2025), S&P -1.52%, Nasdaq -1.74% closed at 24,443; Philadelphia Semiconductor -4%. VIX jumped to ~20.7 (+13%), panic returned. After-hours even worse: Meta Q2 capex guidance bomb (Q3 median below expectations, lower bound raised to $130 billion) after-hours down as much as -11.6%, dragging AI/semiconductor chain. Divergence: MSFT Azure breaks $100 billion revenue, after-hours +3~4%, market rewards those with returns, kills those just burning cash. 🛢️ International Situation & Transmission FOMC holds 3.50–3.75% for 5th time, but 3 votes for hike on 9-3 (first time since 2016 with three same-direction dissents) + hawkish press conference ("not a pause") → September hike expectations heat up. Geopolitical fluctuations: US airstrike on Iran border, Strait of Hormuz joint patrol plan cold-shouldered by Europe. WTI crude oil fell from $85 in the morning to $83.3 (intraday -$1+); gold stands at $4,076. Overnight reversal: Samsung earnings +8% stock price, citing strong AI chip demand, tighter supply next year (contradicts "AI slowdown" narrative) → SK Hynix rebounds +3%; but A-share AI/storage chain dropped this morning (ChiNext -4.7%, STAR 50 -4.66%). 📊 Crypto Multi-Period Technicals 🔵 BTC $64,223 (+0.5%) — Large range 61,660–66,930 mid-range oscillation Daily: bearish setup · RSI 50 · MACD -108 · volume contraction 0.61 4H: bearish entanglement but MACD turns positive and rises 1H/15m: bullish entanglement, above upper Bollinger band, OBV↑ → short-term stabilization 🔵 ETH $1,912 (flat) — Relatively strongest Daily: bullish entanglement · RSI 57 · above middle Bollinger band · OBV↑ 4H bearish, 1H/15m bullish 🔵 SOL $73.9 (+0.5%) — Weakest Daily: bearish setup · RSI 44 · MACD still negative 📉 Derivatives Funding rates mildly positive across the board (BTC/ETH/SOL each +0.01%/8h), no crowding, no extremes. Total market OI: BTC 47.5B · ETH 26.2B · SOL 4.66B (contracted from yesterday). 24h liquidations BTC $60.3M, longs $31M / shorts $29.3M basically balanced, no one-sided stampede. BTC Core Indicators Spot premium -0.138% / -$88 → institutions still net sellers. Fear & Greed Index 27 (fear). DVOL 46.1 (volatility stable). Max Pain: 7/31 = $64,000 / 8/1 = $63,000 (close to current price). Comprehensive Judgment Essence = "War priced as rate hikes" + Meta capex bomb kills AI valuations → risk appetite suppressed; but Samsung earnings overnight reversed storage panic. Bear logic: FOMC hawkish 3 votes + high oil prices + institutional net selling + daily bearish setup. Bull logic: Samsung contradicts AI slowdown, BTC relatively resilient (did not crash with gold under war pricing), fear & greed extremely low easy rebound. Conclusion: BTC large range no trend, not advisable to bet on one-sided direction before PCE release. Today's Trading Advice Range trading mainly, avoid chasing one side: Long reference range lower bound 61,660–62,500 light position, stop loss below 61,000 Short reference 66,000–66,930, stop loss above 67,300 Long preferred ETH (above middle band/OBV↑ strongest leg), short preferred SOL (weakest across all periods). Control position and widen stop loss before core PCE at 05:30 PT tomorrow morning, avoid full position before event night. Risk Events 7/30 05:30 PT Core PCE (expected 3.30% YoY) — most critical verification after hawkish FOMC, decides September hike path Samsung earnings call aftermath + Korean leveraged ETF new regulation selling pressure US-Iran military escalation headlines More tech giant earnings follow-up #BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto —— Data captured in real-time, not investment adviceHere are some interesting highlights from the $FORM earnings call for Chief Product Officers (CPOs): They attributed the nearly doubling of system revenue to "accelerated growth in co-packaged optical devices or CPO." Q1 2026: "We now expect CPO revenue to reach the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range by 2026." Q2 2026 (now): "Expected to exceed this range by the end of Q3, and significantly surpass the $20 million level for the full year." Management stated: "We are seeing the CPO business accelerating significantly. ” Q: What are the prospects for CPO adoption? Can we expect its timeline to be slightly accelerated? A: "What I want to say is, the project schedule will accelerate in the short term. "But management said the timeline will not be significantly affected. Quoting production infrastructure (not just R&D): - Later this year, more CPO chips + test inserts for vertical and lateral expansion switches are planned to be launched. - It seems the CPO portion is passed through $TSM COUPE [possibly corresponding to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO portion will indeed be passed to that 10% of customers" Given management's mention of the growing production of CPO chips, testing is currently accelerating. "The recent rapid growth of our CPO business is exciting, and we believe this marks an early stage of widespread adoption of silicon photonics technology in the broader semiconductor industry." Summary: Fundamentally, CPO as a topic is still in a very early stage and should soon start to thrive, as it is already beginning to appear in revenue (device/test players usually rise before optical engine/laser output increases). Personally, I believe that once the deleveraging process stops, the market will begin to pay more attention to this issue. #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE becomes a new highlight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading. #英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt #Hyperliquid海力士永续插针, the platform promised to compensate for liquidation losses On the Korean side, a blunder of $868 directly swept through Hyperliquid's $500 million market. Here's what happened. On the morning of July 28th, during the pre-market trading of South Korea's NXT, someone placed the wrong order and caused SK Hynix's stock price to fall near the daily limit down. The key point is that one share only traded $868. Originally, this issue was quickly fixed in the stock market, but Trade.xyz's oracle system happened to input NXT's quote as an external price at that moment. SKHX's perpetual contract was directly dragged down from $1,128 to $917. The entire liquidation took less than three minutes, with over 900 accounts affected and long positions liquidated nearly $60 million. The most outrageous part of this is that, technically, every step is "legal." That $868 transaction was indeed within NXT's legitimate price range. Trade.xyz's oracle also operates according to specifications. But the problem is, the price generated by a market with almost zero liquidity is used as the benchmark for pricing a $500 million market surface. In contrast, Binance proactively abandoned external quotes that day and handled internal processes smoothly, so this chain of liquidations did not occur. Eventually, Trade.xyz promises full compensation for liquidation losses caused by this pin insertion. But the key lies beyond compensation—they need to reassess pricing mechanisms and increase the weight of their order books. The lesson here is actually quite simple: don't treat on-chain perpetual contracts as mere substitutes for stocks. These products rely on external oracles to feed prices, while in the external market—during the pre-market and after-hours periods of thin liquidity—a single order worth a few hundred yuan can take away your positions worth millions. You think you're trading, but in reality, you're betting against an imperfect pricing machine.$BTC is trying to hold 64K after FOMC. The FOMC meeting didn't do much honestly, and I'm sticking to my thesis. I executed a short on top of my existing shorts yesterday, so I'm well exposed for a potential move down. I might scale-in another short if we sweep those triple-highs around 64.8K. After the trigger only. The sweep of the 65.8K highs is still a valid short scenario, but I prefer to dump from here tbh. I'm only looking for more shorts because two of my shorts are already at BE. Remember to limit your risk when you're stacking entries. With the 62.8K low we printed last Tuesday, Bitcoin engineered a lot of liquidity beneath the lows towards 60K. Per my system I simply cannot look for longs now, the long from Tuesday was my only long-trigger this week. $BTC #AIStoryDiverges 市场这几天跌得人心惶惶，但仔细看看宏观面，其实没有那么绝望。美国国债已经飙到39.46万亿美元，占GDP比例创二战以来新高，要是再加25个基点，一年利息支出直接再多3600亿。今年利息支出已经到了1.1万亿，跟军费差不多——这已经不是加息不疼不痒的问题，而是美国政府财政真要崩。沃什作为川普提名的下任美联储主席候选人，公开表态过应该加快降息，他绝不可能在上任第三个月就加息，那是自毁前程。通胀数据也在配合，6月CPI回落到3.5%，核心通胀2.6%环比持平，非农数据前两个月还往下修，某机构、中金、巴克莱、瑞士百达全部预期这次不动，摩根斯坦利甚至说全年都不动。这波跌最狠的其实是高估值AI概念股，比如$NVDA $AMD这些，估值全靠未来现金流折现，利率一抬折现率上去估值直接压死。而且很多AI发展的钱是借来的，特斯拉刚刚搞了300亿美元债务，六大云厂商直接债务到了4600亿，利率再往上走这些利息重新计算，资本开支账单会非常难看。但别急着开心，9月加息概率已经冲到82%，这次不加息只是缓刑，不是无罪释放。凌晨的发布会不仅要看利率数字，更要听沃什怎么措辞。 #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% Samsung's latest financial report is exceptionally impressive, with revenue hitting a record high and profits soaring 18-fold, successfully pulling the Korean stock market back from its slump; However, the author believes that since the positive effects of the memory chip supercycle have already been fully priced in by the market and there is a bubble, this financial report can at most provide a brief "last flash." As earnings week approaches, if the U.S. storage sector underperforms, the current market may "revert to its original state," so a firm bearish stance is maintained. $SKHYNIX $OKB 姐妹们/兄弟们，今晚的财经圈注定不平静！😱 刚刚结束的美联储会议出现了“十年罕见”的名场面：3位票委公然投出反对票，主张立刻加息25bp！而今晚20:30公布的6月PCE物价指数，就是验证他们是对是错的“终极审判”⚖️。 别再只盯着CPI了，PCE才是美联储亲儿子！这份文案帮你3分钟看懂今晚博弈逻辑，建议先⭐收藏，数据出来随时对照！ 💡 为什么今晚PCE这么重要？ ● 鹰派的“实锤证据”：3位委员说通胀顽固要加息，如果今晚PCE超预期，9月加息预期直接拉满🔥 ● 央行“闭麦”后的唯一锚点：主席沃什说了不再给前瞻指引，以后全靠硬数据说话，市场只能自己猜💔 ● 统计方法调整前的最后窗口：9月底要改算法，今晚的数据可能是旧体系下的“绝唱”，波动性加倍⚠️ 🎯 四种剧本+资产影响（对号入座） 1. 🔴 双高（GDP强+PCE高）：最鹰派！9月加息概率飙升。利空长债、科技股、加密货币；利多美元、黄金 2. 🟢 金发姑娘（GDP强+PCE低）：最优解！软着陆叙事回归。利好美股大盘、成长股修复 3. 🟡 滞胀阴影（GDP弱+PCE高）：最差组合！政The relative strength difference between BTC and ETH is showing the real signal of the market. If the Federal Reserve decision on July 29 is more hawkish than expected, BTC is likely to test support first, triggering a chain reaction in altcoins. Key facts based on the original text are summarized first. $337 million liquidated, 93,786 accounts wiped out, BTC support at 61,600/59,800, resistance at 67,135/70,000, ETH support at 1,705, resistance at 2,225, key zones at 1,775 and 2,000, SOL plan maintained, ZEC stop-loss considered after entry due to changed conditions, XAU buy zone 4,000-4,030, SNDK re-entry prohibited at 1,050 and downside risk if it falls below 1,000. The Fed decision is a turning point for the entire market. - Market structure communication logic: Despite overnight liquidations, BTC recovered to 64,175, showing signs of demand recovery. This means BTC maintains a relatively solid supply-demand base. Meanwhile, ETH shows high volatility in the 1,775-2,000 range and futures pro#财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ Two US stock giants are both heavily investing in AI. Microsoft relies on its cloud + enterprise software ecosystem to quickly monetize its investments, delivering the results the market wants; Meta depends on its single advertising business to absorb huge computing power costs, putting short-term profits under pressure, and the market reflects this view through its stock price. As an ordinary investor, I am more optimistic about Microsoft. Because Microsoft's AI monetization loop is already proven, it is more certain, stable, low risk, and has optimistic expectations. @OKX星球 Written before today's release of the core PCE The Federal Reserve's policy meeting just ended in the early morning, and the PCE data will be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time. In the early morning, Powell repeatedly emphasized that the Fed is unwavering in maintaining 2% inflation, referring specifically to the core PCE, so the importance of the core PCE is self-evident. Unfortunately, this month's core PCE and CPI data are about the same, meaning it's just something to watch, and the market impact should be very short-term and limited, mainly because of oil prices. In June, oil prices dropped, but just one month later, oil prices have risen back up. So the current inflation data is quite awkward. Market expectations have indeed lowered, and investors believe it has lowered, but inflation will definitely rise next month, making this month's decrease meaningless. This is why I say the market impact is very limited. Just look at this month's CPI data. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 $BTC Core impact of late initial jobless claims: The data mainly disrupted expectations of Fed rate cuts, indirectly driving crypto rallies. Initial applications are relatively low→ employment is strong, high interest rate expectations are heating up, US dollar and US Treasury yields are strengthening, and crypto is under pressure; Initial requests rose significantly→ economic weakness and rising expectations of rate cuts are boosting coin prices; If the data meets expectations, the market will fluctuate. There is a lot of noise at the start of the week, and tonight's core PCE weights are higher, making data easily hedging. Currently, the crypto market is highly tied to US dollar liquidity, and the fluctuations driven by data are mostly short-term sentiment, making it difficult to maintain a sustained trend. Avoid heavy positions in gambling, be wary of pin-insertion and double kills between long and short, and prioritize the signals of US Treasury and US dollar linkage. $BTC $ETH #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight SK海力士（SKHX）盘中触及921.3美元，日内重挫约8%，成交额放大至15.23亿美元。表面上是恐慌性抛售，但资金面的信号却截然相反——未平仓合约价值逆势攀升至5.71亿美元，说明场外资金不但没跑，反而在持续加码。 尤其值得留意的是昨日的异动：未平仓合约价值从4.43亿美元骤增至5.64亿美元，一天之内涌入1.20亿美元，增幅高达27.2%。这种量级的增仓，往往不是散户行为。 资金费率方面，每小时+0.0431%，24小时累计约+0.3948%，环比抬升37.5%。费率走高意味着多头正在持续支付成本来维持头寸，做多情绪并未因价格下跌而消退。 再看巨鲸（持仓超百万美元）的站位：多空人数比1.24:1，多头持仓价值领先空头约2.82亿美元。这说明大户整体偏多，但优势不算悬殊。 概括一下当前的格局：价格在跌，钱在进，费率在涨——典型的“长尾资金趁跌进场”的结构，而大户虽偏多但尚未形成压倒性合力。接下来是反弹还是继续洗盘，关键看这些增仓资金能不能扛住短期的浮亏压力。 Many people thought last night's liquidation wave was a sign of a crash, but in fact, the market is quietly changing hands. Have you ever wondered why, after the $337 million liquidation, the lows of Bitcoin and Ethereum are actually rising? Last night was indeed the most brutal deleveraging of the year, with 93,786 accounts instantly wiped out, BTC hitting a low of 61,600, and ETH falling below 1,705. Interestingly, the price structure did not collapse; instead, it regained above 64,175 and 1,775 before dawn. This is not a continuation of panic; it's big money secretly taking on chips under the guise of fear. If you only look at liquidation numbers, you might feel the market is fragile. But if you look further into cross-market scenarios, you'll find a more subtle signal: gold and tech stocks (like SNDK) are also experiencing sharp volatility simultaneously, but their lows are also being bought back during testing. What does this indicate? Liquidity is not a solo escape from crypto; rather, global assets are undergoing a stress test of risk appetite. My trading logic is simple: - ZEC re-entered at 467.5 last night, but if it returns to cost today, I will exit directly. If the logic changes, admit mistakes and don't drag things out. - SOL stayed as planned, and the structure was intact. - BTC supports at 61,600 / 59,800, resistance at 67,135 / 70,000. After breaking below 63,000 yesterday, it quickly pulled back; today, the focus is on whether 64,175 can hold. Demand is slowly returning; wait for a retest before carefully trying the first order. - ETH branchBitcoin traded narrowly around $63,989 today, dropping $23 (-0.04%) and returning to the key psychological level of $64,000, repeatedly tugging back and forth. Yesterday, the market showed a wide range of volatility, dropping to a low of $62,707 before gaining buying support, then rebounding to $65,720. However, heavy selling pressure was on the side, and it finally closed with a long upper shadow, indicating that resistance at $65,700 remains strong. The previous support level (POC) has turned into short-term resistance, and this technical structure remains unchanged. From a capital perspective, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Spread) indicator has shown signs of turning upward, indicating that spot buying is gradually returning. However, at the same time, the funding rate remains at a relatively high level of 0.0085%, reflecting crowded long positions while overall open interest has not shown significant growth, indicating that the current market is mostly a contest of existing funds, with incremental funds remaining cautious about entering the market. In the short term, the upper core resistance is at $65,700, with key support at $62,700. Before the price effectively breaks through this range, it is highly likely to continue the range-bound consolidation pattern. The current $64,000 level is in an awkward range, so it is recommended to watch more and move less to avoid chasing gains and selling lows, and patiently wait for a clear direction before making decisions. $BTC $ETH The Fed left interest rates unchanged, which removed a major source of uncertainty. Crypto initially stayed quiet as equities weighed on sentiment, but the broader structure remains constructive as long as key support levels continue to hold. BTC Price action is still favoring a buy-the-dip approach while above support. Bullish trigger: Reclaim 64,700 Resistance: 65,900 → 67,500 → 69,500 Support: 62,800 → 61,500 → 60,000 ETH Ethereum remains in recovery mode if it stays above the key pivot. BullMore than half of South Korean investors have already jumped Can Hynix really buy the dip? Everyone has probably seen SK Hynix's decline in recent weeks The earnings report also fell short of expectations But I believe SK Hynix's transition from bear to bull is not far off First, we need to understand the reasons behind SK Hynix's recent sharp decline 1: Poor financial reports are due to spending money on expansion 2: Institutions are maliciously short selling 3: Reduce leverage I believe that if you don't look closely at the market right now, you can definitely buy the dip Here's why 1: If SK Hynix falls further, political issues are very likely to arise 2: Judging by the expansion alone, the construction is almost complete at this point 3: The bulls have already begun to gain the upper hand 4: The support level below is very strong $SKHY $BTC $SNDK Just glanced at the Greed and Fear Index—32, back to freezing point. The whole market was so quiet it was like a closed market; no one was fighting for red envelopes in the group chat. But don't be fooled by this illusion. According to OKX's real-time data, $RE managed to push up 15 points in such a quiet situation, with turnover reaching 6.51M. Doesn't it look like a barbecue stall suddenly showing up at 3 a.m. with people in suits, ordering ten skewers of lamb kidney and even having lafite? It's really abrupt. I asked a friend of the market maker, and this round is very likely a break from an Asian market maker who was buried last round. The tactic is old-fashioned: when liquidity is dry, they use tiny orders to push prices up, attracting bots to follow suit. This kind of racking looks fierce, but in reality, it's like throwing firecrackers into a pile of dry wood—they go off in one go. Occasionally, the modified cars on the city overpass would explode loudly, but when you hit the brakes, they were all made of plastic. Looking at $KAITO, it dropped 10.65%, which is the real temperature of the market right now—it's completely cold. For those fantasizing about the knockoff season coming, wake up—let's first pull $ZAMA's shattered momentum back to the opening price before making any moves. Real money only recognizes big cakes and two cakes; this kind of sudden death rally will most likely have to stand guard at the top. Observe more, don't get carried away. Check if $RE's on-chain collection addresses are moving up, and observe the thickness of $CARDS' one-sided buy orders—it's better than listening to wild candlestick analysts. 今日DeFi老牌借贷蓝筹EUL大幅杀跌，位居跌幅榜前十，宣告DeFi超跌修复行情彻底结束。EUL作为以太坊生态老牌借贷协议，经历过往黑客事件后，生态热度、用户量、TVL长期低迷。 此前EUL上涨逻辑，纯粹是资金高低切换、超跌补涨，属于冷门赛道短期轮动。DeFi赛道整体TVL停滞、链上借贷需求疲软、用户活跃度不足，没有出现基本面实质性回暖。 市场短暂炒作低估DeFi之后，资金快速发现赛道没有增量、没有落地、没有持续数据改善，炒作热情迅速消退，资金集体撤离DeFi板块。 叠加今日全球风险偏好下降，资金规避所有弱基本面山寨赛道，优先抱团主流，中小市值DeFi币种遭到集中抛售。EUL筹码结构不稳定、流动性一般，下跌力度被放大。 技术面冲高回落、放量破位，短期支撑失守，重新回归底部震荡下跌区间。DeFi赛道目前依旧处于长期熊市，没有任何反转信号，所有修复行情都是短暂脉冲。 后市EUL延续弱势格局，震荡阴跌为主，没有趋势性机会，仅适合极致短线博弈，无长线布局价值。From today's information, the overall sentiment in the crypto market is cautious, more like "there are pros and cons, stability is the main focus," and there is no absolute positive trend that could unilaterally drive a sharp rise. Specifically, the following points are worth noting: · Macro situation "hanging in the balance": The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected, but hawkish remarks have left the market worried about possible future rate hikes. Coupled with geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices and putting pressure on risk assets, the market barely held above $64,000. · Key bills enter sprint: The Senate is making its final bargaining over the Clarity Act before its August recess. If approved, it would be a long-term benefit, but time is tight and controversy remains. The SEC chairman stated that if the bill fails, he will introduce its own rules, which serves as a safeguard. · AI computing power becomes a lifeline: mining companies are transitioning to AI data centers after Bitcoin plunges (nearly halved from historical highs), with some companies' AI revenue surging ninefold. While this is positive for companies undergoing transformation, it also reflects the difficulties faced by the mining business. · South Korea's "tax inspection" is a negative factor: South Korea plans legislation to freeze crypto accounts suspected of illegal transfers, which usually brings short-term regulatory pressure. Overall, calling it "positive" today is somewhat reluctant. The market is in a wait-and-see phase: on one side, two major issues remain unresolved, Federal Reserve policy and the Clarity Act; on the other, Bitcoin prices are barely holding steady but market fear is pervasive. The risks outweigh the opportunities.The story of AI has entered its second half. The real money is not in the models, but in the ability to monetize. Microsoft and Meta released their earnings almost simultaneously. One surged after hours, the other plunged at one point after hours. Many people's first reaction was: Has the market started to lose faith in AI? I actually think the market is not disbelieving AI, but rather starting to reprice AI. In the past, just saying "All in AI" could boost valuations. Now capital asks a different question: Can your AI sustainably make money? The biggest signal in Microsoft's earnings report is not Azure's 43% growth, nor the cloud business surpassing $100 billion in annual revenue. What really matters is that it has turned AI into a business that enterprises are willing to commit to long-term contracts. RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations) continues to hit new highs, meaning a lot of customer money is already locked in advance, just waiting for Microsoft to deliver slowly. AI is no longer just a PPT slide, but part of enterprise budgets. In contrast, Meta. The advertising business remains strong, and AI recommendations have indeed improved ad efficiency. But the market is more concerned about another issue: For every $1 Meta earns, it still needs to invest more money to build AI infrastructure. Capital expenditures are rising, and cash flow pressure is becoming increasingly apparent. This is why, even though both talk about AI, the market feedback is completely different. ⸻ If we shift the perspective to Crypto, I think the most worth watching is not the AI concept Meme. But $TAO (Bittensor). The reason is simple. Microsoft sells AI services. OpenAI sells AI models. But TAO aims to build an open AI compute and model incentive network. If in the future AI is not just a few giants, but more and more models, agents, and inference nodes collaborating, then a decentralized AI network might have its own value capture ability. Of course, this path is still long and carries significant execution risks. But the market has already started to prove one thing: AI valuations will not always come from imagination, but from cash flow. The same applies to the crypto market. The AI projects that can truly succeed in the future are likely not: "We used AI." But rather: AI brings real revenue, real users, and real demand. So now when I look at the AI sector, I pay more attention to three things: * Is there sustained growth in usage? * Is there stable growth in revenue? * Is there an increasingly strong network effect? Stories can be hyped for a quarter. But cash flow can sustain a bull market. $TAO Let's talk about when US stocks will stop falling Can you still buy the bottom after storing everything? Yesterday's closing session saw a surge in volume and a decline. From the news side, it appears inflation is intensifying, and expectations of interest rate hikes are starting again. In reality, it's still the US stock gains from March to June and the uncertainty of AI investment. When faced with uncertainty, the market tends to sell blindly. Currently, there is no sign of stabilizing the decline. The Nasdaq has mostly fallen and risen more than gained, mainly supported by the Seven Sisters. The original logic was hard tech falling, software rising, NVIDIA rising, Apple rising, Google rising. Now, after clearly selling hard tech, funds have abandoned the Seven Sisters When will this situation improve? The ultimate form of this improvement should be when Nvidia begins to stabilize, stabilize, or even form a strong trend. This requires not only explosive earnings reports but also technological breakthroughs and a new round of AI gaps. When Nvidia rises, semiconductors will recover, storage will stop falling and rebound, and US stocks will rebound. But now, there's no need to pay more attention to everyone's advice. When I first bought US stocks, the pandemic hit right after I bought them. At the time, I was completely on guard at the summit, but when I checked afterwards, that spot was just a small pit The advantage of spot trading and regular averaging is that you can endure. US stocks are highly volatile, and in the long run, QQQ still has an average return of 20%. I don't think AI will ever collapse, nor do I think we'll buy Nasdaq at its century-high now. The market really needs to cool down. Once cooled, only a rational self can buy Google and SMH. Back then, buying and holding prices wasn't just to sell at a slight rise or unbearable with a slight drop. There are too many people who want to get rich overnight in the US market, but Buffett has long said that speculating on US stock market prices is tantamount to suicide. I remain firmly optimistic about AI tech stocks. Maybe looking back in a few years, now is definitely a great opportunity 😊 #Written before today's announcement of the core PCE The Fed's policy meeting had just ended in the early morning, and by 8:30 PM in Beijing, PCE data was available. In the early hours, Walsh repeatedly emphasized that the Fed was keeping inflation at 2%, referring to core PCE, so the importance of core PCE is self-evident. Unfortunately, this month's core PCE and CPI data are about the same, so the impact on the market should be very short-term and limited, mainly because of oil prices. In June, oil prices fell, but after just one month, prices rebounded. So the current inflation data is quite awkward. Market expectations have indeed dropped, and investors believe they will decrease, but inflation will definitely rise next month. Therefore, this month's reduction becomes meaningless. This is why I say the impact on the market is very limited. Just look at this month's CPI data.South Korea's finance minister publicly apologized in the National Assembly today. He bowed because retail investors lost a lot of money due to single-stock leveraged ETFs. It's rare for the top financial official of a country to apologize over a financial product. Behind this is the sharp drop in South Korean chip stocks. The 2x leveraged ETFs of Samsung and SK Hynix had surged dramatically before, and the correction was just as severe. Many retail investors rushed in at high prices, and a single pullback wiped them out completely. Brothers trading contracts in the crypto space, this storyline should be familiar, right? Spot combined with leverage makes you feel your judgment is spot-on when prices rise, but when they fall, you realize it’s all thanks to leverage. The hotter the market, the more rampant the use of leverage tools. Korean regulators are only now reacting to clamp down, but it’s already too late. The crypto world is the same; only after massive liquidations do people remember to cut losses. If you stay in this market long enough, you’ll realize the real risk is never about being wrong on direction, but about using leverage and position sizes that can’t withstand volatility. #KoreanStockVolatilityTriggersRegulatoryIntervention, FinanceMinisterApologizesForLeveragedETF $BTC $ETH $SNDK Microsoft proactively cuts AI spending, yet surges 8.5%, the market logic has completely changed Today's market move really breaks the habitual thinking of many veteran traders. In the past six months, the market logic was very simple: Whoever dares to wildly spend on AI computing power and expand capital expenditure is the leader and will soar. Everyone was caught up in burning money, expanding production, and increasing capital investment, as if spending big guarantees future growth. But this time Microsoft delivered a reverse blow: Proactively lowering future capital expenditure and no longer mindlessly burning money on AI. By previous logic, this would be a major negative—fear of investment, slowed expansion, growth peaking, so it should have crashed. What happened? After hours, it violently surged 8.5%. Many people didn’t understand at first, even confused: Why does spending less lead the capital market to wildly buy in? Here’s the core, down-to-earth trading logic: Recently, big companies mindlessly spent on AI, pushing marginal returns to collapse. They frantically bought GPUs, built data centers, expanded computing power, but actual realized returns and revenue growth couldn’t keep up with the burn rate. Simply put: the efficiency of burning money is declining, pure ineffective internal competition. Microsoft is now proactively cutting spending, not quitting AI, but stopping inefficient, mindless, high-loss crazy expansion. The market understands the essence behind this: 1 Cutting ineffective spending → directly boosts profit margins 2 No more blind internal competition on computing power → future financial reports look better 3 Shifting from "brutal money-burning expansion" to "profitable execution is king" Now the capital preference has completely changed. No longer chasing "the company that burns the most money", now only buying "the company that makes the most money with the most stable cash flow." This is the biggest style shift in recent US tech stocks, and many haven’t caught on yet. Previously, everyone was driven by AI mania, assuming spending money = future, now capital starts to dislike high consumption, high debt, low return expansion models. Microsoft’s big surge is actually setting the tone for the whole market: The money-burning era of AI hype is over, the profit era officially begins. #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% So the question is: Do you think this is the start of Microsoft’s valuation recovery, or just a short-term emotional rebound that will revert later? New on-chain funds have also started to stagnate. Without new buying, Bitcoin's ability to hold out and avoid collapse is entirely due to the 300,000 tokens accumulated earlier. Simply put, the current market support is not new buying but gradually reducing selling pressure. Currently, just focus on the 63k area for the current watershed; other levels are not very useful. The stock market has been heavily deleveraging recently, and the crypto sector hasn't followed the decline because it was cleared out in mid-month; March 2024, Ethereum 4100, Bitcoin 73000 December 2024, Ethereum 4100, Bitcoin 110,000 Why was Ethereum capped at 4100 at the peak of both bull markets? In the crypto space, when prices break new highs, three principles generally apply: 1. There must be a strong new narrative to support it, which can be proven successful 2. The shakeout must be thorough, with a deep enough drop 3. No large-scale unlocks In 2024, Ethereum met two of these, but the biggest flaw was the "lack of a new narrative" The bull market before March: Ethereum’s mainstream narrative was L2; people believed L2’s boom would accelerate ETH deflation. However, L2 did not bring the expected boom because, in terms of performance and fees, Solana was good enough. The new narrative was not successful enough The bull market in December: There was no narrative at all, a pure narrative vacuum. Although there was an ETF, institutions were not interested. After the Dencun upgrade, Ethereum’s deflation narrative failed. Daily burn volume collapsed from several thousand per day to as low as 50-70, turning ETH into mild inflation. L1 revenue dropped from over $600 million in March to $120 million in May, while L2 took 95-99% of transaction fees. The old narrative was falsified, and there was no new narrative to take over. Let’s look at Solana during the same period: 1. Shakeout was thorough: from $260 in 2021 to $8.13 in 2022, a -97% drop 2. No large unlocks: major unlocks will happen in 2025 3. The new narrative was strong: memecoin cycle, and it was exclusive to Solana So Solana rose from $8 in 2022 to a historical high of $290 in January 2025. Any token’s rise requires narrative momentum; this is the first principle of bull markets in crypto. Back to the present, RWA is the only narrative growing against the bear market trend. And it’s the only narrative that traditional finance is willing to invest real money in. Leading names are BlackRock, Franklin, Circle, Ondo, WisdomTree. The ones that can carry this narrative are ETH, top DeFi, and BNB. They basically meet the three principles currently: 1. Clean shakeout: all have dropped about 70% 2. No large unlocks: DeFi leaders like Uni and Aave have long finished unlocking 3. New narrative takeover: RWA + institutional layout 🔥ETFs are being withdrawn, miners are selling, but BTC long-term holders haven't moved—who is this wave of washing? On the surface, everything looks negative: ETFs withdrew nearly 200 million USD in four consecutive rounds, Q2 spot ETF quarterly net redemptions hit the largest since 2024 products launched, mining companies sold 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026 (exceeding the total for 2025), the halving cost line was pushed to $78,000, and the current price of 63,900 yuan forced mining companies to switch to AI. But on the other side of the chain: • Exchange balances continue to see net outflows, with tokens being siphoned off by cold wallets • Long-term holders (>155 days) have not moved, with no panic surrender • There are thin buying options between 63,200 and 63,500, unlike the on-chain collapse seen in 2022 So this $700 million leveraged liquidation (past 24 hours) + ETF withdrawals mainly washed out high-leverage retail investors and short-term institutions, not cyclical chips. After the halving, the third bearish tail oscillation occurs, and every time the "macro market looks end," it is usually the holder accumulation zone. Of course, if the PCE hits the charts tonight and the US dollar index rises again, 62,000 is still worth watching—but the on-chain underlining is completely different from 2022. With ETF withdrawals + miner selling pressure causing a double blow, do you dare to treat 63,000 as the cycle bottom, or wait until it falls below 60,000 before speaking? $BTC $ETH #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight 🚨 At $1,900 worth of ETH, three forces are tearing the market apart --- ETH is currently at $1,905, down 0.22% in 24 hours, and has fluctuated narrowly around 1900 for several consecutive days. The direction is unclear, but three sets of data tell you—undercurrents are surging: 📊 1. ETFs: Monthly crush on BTC, but short-term performance Ethereum spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of $342.9 million so far in July, far exceeding Bitcoin's $204.7 million. For two consecutive weeks, weekly inflows have crushed BTC. But yesterday, there was a net outflow of $18.65 million, while Fidelity's FETH ran $16.07 million in a single day. Morgan Stanley and BlackRock are buying, Fidelity is selling—institutions are fighting internally. 🐋 2. Whale: Sold $430 million in one day 226,400 ETH, about $430 million, a single-day whale sell-off—the most intense in weeks. But the flip side of the coin: exchange ETH balances have dropped to a nearly ten-year low, about 15.1 million. Selling and supply tightening are happening simultaneously—bulls and bears are betting that the opponent won't hold out first. 📈 3. ETH/BTC: 3-month high The ETH/BTC ratio has risen to a three-month high. After ETH fell 47.1% and BTC only 33.1% in the first half of the year, funds are shifting from BTC to ETH—this is ETH's strongest medium-term logic. --- 🧠 My judgment: In the short term, 1900 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. Above, 1920-1940 is a double suppression by the 100-day moving average + middle Bollinger band; If the 1876-1885 level is breached, bears will take over. ETH's foundation is thickening — staking rate at 33.9%, monthly ETF inflows crushing BTC, and exchange stock hitting a ten-year low. But the probability of a rate hike in September has soared to 63.2%, with macro uncertainty being the biggest factor. ETH at 1900 is like a taut string—fundamentals are supporting the bottom, macros are putting pressure, and whales are dumping the market. --- Comment section: Before the end of the month, should ETH hit 2000 or return to 1800 first? 👇 #ETH #以太坊 #ETF #加密市场分析 $ETH #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ Same AI, different fates: Microsoft is making money, Meta is burning cash Here are some viewpoints on the reasons, first the AI sector has split Microsoft rose 8.5%, Meta fell nearly 7%, same track, opposite candlesticks. Why? Because the market has already chosen who they consider the leading AI players. AI is a top-tier game, not a free-for-all. Microsoft is smart, knowing AI can't be won just by throwing money at it. Their cloud business reached 100 billion, AI applications have landed, money is coming in, this is real monetization. Then Microsoft did something even smarter: actively cut capital expenditures, spending less to achieve more, the market rewarded with an 8.5% rise. Looking at Meta, revenue is 60.8 billion, up 28%, the data looks good, but capital expenditures will surge to 130-145 billion, free cash flow is at a four-year low, AI is good but no one knows when it will pay off. Here’s the key: has anyone heard of or used Meta’s AI? What is Meta’s AI? Most people go silent when asked this. The current AI market is the top players eating meat, the rest eating dirt. GPT, Gemini, DeepSeek-Claude are truly used daily; other AIs can’t even be named, unused AIs are just burning hardware for nothing, powered by passion, mainly marketed as companionship. Meta’s choice is to keep burning more and more cash, the market punishes them. Microsoft’s choice is to spend less and be a supplier, the market gives a premium. All we can say is Meta is losing big this round, an old laggard in AI, always missing the hot trends. AI isn’t impossible to do, but it can’t be forced. Direction matters far more than burning money. This round, Microsoft won big.$ETH bulls need to defend this key support or I’m watching $1,950 for a short setup. There’s a fat liquidation cluster sitting between $1,940–$1,960. Price gets drawn to it like a magnet before it decides to flip. I’m not shorting blind. Fundamentals have to stay weak. Right now whales aren’t in this bounce and CVD is still sitting at the bottom. If nothing changes near $1,950, that’s where I start paying attention. But if data turns up or the structure shifts, I’ll sit on my hands and wait. #DailyOrbit #Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex @OKX Orbit Mới đây, nhà sáng lập Zcash – Zooko Wilcox – đã chính thức lên tiếng đập tan các tin đồn vô căn cứ cho rằng nguồn cung đồng ZEC bị tăng lên một cách bí mật. Khẳng định từ phía nhà phát triển giúp cộng đồng đầu tư crypto yên tâm về tính minh bạch của dự án. Thực Hư Tin Đồn Nguồn Cung ZEC Bị "In Thêm" Gần đây trên nền tảng mạng xã hội X (Twitter), xuất hiện nhiều tin đồn cho rằng lượng cung ZEC có thể đã gia tăng ngoài tầm kiểm soát. Một số thông tin còn cho rằng người dùng phải chờ nâng cấp di chAt 2 AM last night, the Federal Reserve released its decision. 9 votes in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged, 3 votes against, advocating for a rate hike. What did Powell say? He said: "This is not a pause, this is just the beginning of the story." He said: "We will not hesitate to raise rates if necessary." Sounds tough, right? But look at what he actually did— The fifth consecutive time holding steady. The statement body only 115 words, the shortest in twenty years. The harsher the words, the softer the action. The US Treasury market gave the most honest answer—the short-end yields are falling, the long-end yields are soaring. The short end (2-year) falling means the market doesn't believe there will be a real rate hike soon. The long end (30-year) soaring to 5.2% means what is the market worried about? Not "overheating." It's "stagflation." It's long-term inflation out of control. It's fiscal deficit out of control. It's the loosening of the dollar credit system. The market is telling the Fed with its actions: we don't believe your "hawkishness." Gold and Bitcoin rising simultaneously is the harshest slap. Gold surged to 4116, Bitcoin held steady at 64000. By traditional logic, a "hawkish" Fed should be bullish for the dollar, bearish for gold and risk assets. What happened? The dollar fell 0.58%, gold rose, crypto rose. This is a "vote of no confidence in the fiat system." When investors no longer believe "the Fed can control the situation," they vote with their feet—buy gold, buy Bitcoin, just not the dollar or US Treasuries. So tonight's 8:30 PCE report is basically irrelevant. If the data is good, the market will say "inflation is stubborn, the Fed is inactive, it's out of control"— and fall. If the data is bad, the market will say "the economy is doomed, the Fed still dares not cut rates"— and also fall. PCE is no longer the touchstone. PCE is just an excuse for the market to keep selling off. The Fed's "hawk" is passive and defensive, not proactive and suppressive. It wants to raise rates, but the economy can't take it. It wants to cut rates, but inflation can't be suppressed. It's stuck in the middle, caught in a dilemma. The three dissenting votes are not a sign of "hawkish resurgence"— they are a fig leaf for the Fed's loss of direction. The real main storyline has never been about raising or cutting rates. The real main storyline is: the dollar credit system is loosening. And the Fed has neither the ability nor the courage to fix it. Tonight at 8:30, PCE will be released. No matter the data, the market will find reasons to keep falling 韩国财长今天在国会公开道歉了。 因为单一股票杠杆ETF让散户亏了大钱，出来鞠躬。一个国家管钱的头号人物，因为一个金融产品出来道歉，这事放哪国都不多见。 背后是韩国芯片股那波暴跌，三星和SK海力士的2倍杠杆ETF，之前涨得多猛，回调就有多狠。很多散户高位冲进去，一波回撤直接清零。 币圈玩合约的兄弟，这个剧情不陌生吧？ 现货配杠杆，涨的时候觉得自己判断神准，跌的时候才发现全是杠杆的功劳。 市场越热的时候，杠杆工具越泛滥。韩国监管现在才反应过来要收，已经晚了一步。币圈也一样，每次大爆仓之后才有人想起来止损这件事。 你在这个市场里待久了就会发现，真正的风险从来不是看错方向，是用了扛不住波动的杠杆，以及扛不住的仓位。#韩股波动剧烈引监管介入，财长为杠杆ETF道歉 $BTC $ETH $SNDK 韩国财长今天在国会公开道歉了。 因为单一股票杠杆ETF让散户亏了大钱，出来鞠躬。一个国家管钱的头号人物，因为一个金融产品出来道歉，这事放哪国都不多见。 背后是韩国芯片股那波暴跌，三星和SK海力士的2倍杠杆ETF，之前涨得多猛，回调就有多狠。很多散户高位冲进去，一波回撤直接清零。 币圈玩合约的兄弟，这个剧情不陌生吧？ 现货配杠杆，涨的时候觉得自己判断神准，跌的时候才发现全是杠杆的功劳。 市场越热的时候，杠杆工具越泛滥。韩国监管现在才反应过来要收，已经晚了一步。币圈也一样，每次大爆仓之后才有人想起来止损这件事。 你在这个市场里待久了就会发现，真正的风险从来不是看错方向，是用了扛不住波动的杠杆，以及扛不住的仓位。🚨 The missiles are flying. Oil prices are soaring. The AI market may be facing its greatest test. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are heating up again in ways that could have far-reaching effects on financial markets, including the fields of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence. The situation on the ground is rapidly escalating. According to reports, Iran launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan, marking a significant escalation of ongoing tensions between the two countries. The Houthis attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, disrupting one of the world's most important shipping lanes. The U.S. retaliatory strike against Iran-backed militias in Iraq indicates that the current situation could escalate into a broader regional conflict. The market reacted immediately to these developments, with crude oil prices rising as traders factored in the increased risk of supply disruptions. This price action reflects the market's assessment of the situation, suggesting that geopolitical tensions may persist and may escalate further. Rising oil prices could reignite inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. This is a major concern for growth stocks, especially the best-performing AI companies in recent years. When inflation concerns rise, investors tend to rotate from growth stocks to value stocks, lowering the valuation multiples currently enjoyed by AI companies. But most investors are looking in the wrong direction. The next trajectory for AI will not be determined by oil prices or geopolitical tensions, at least not directly. It will be determined by the spending plans of major tech companies. Companies at the forefront of the AI revolution are making billions of dollars in capital investment, building the worldUnprecedented: A country's finance minister publicly apologizes, leveraged products directly overturn the entire stock market Who has ever seen a finance minister publicly apologize for flaws in financial products? The recent severe turmoil in the South Korean stock market has sounded a heavy warning bell for all traders who love leverage. #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入，财长为杠杆ETF道歉 Recently, the volatility of the Korean stock market has spiraled out of control, triggering multiple circuit breakers during trading hours, causing massive losses for countless retail investors. At the core of this market storm is the previously wildly popular single-stock leveraged ETFs. During the bull market, the 2x leverage effect attracted a large number of ordinary retail investors, causing the product scale to surge several times in a short period, with retail investors holding the vast majority of the chips. Foreign capital quietly exited at high levels amid the market frenzy. When the uptrend ended, the backlash of leverage was fully exposed. Leveraged ETFs have a daily rebalancing mechanism. When the index dips slightly, market makers must passively sell spot assets to hedge, creating continuous selling pressure that suppresses the market. Subsequently, retail investors' margin positions are liquidated one after another, forming a vicious cycle of falling prices causing more selling and panic, pushing the market into extreme conditions with consecutive circuit breakers. After the market crash and widespread investor losses, regulators quickly intervened with restrictive policies to stabilize the market. The South Korean finance minister publicly apologized in the National Assembly, admitting that when allowing these single-stock leveraged ETFs, the huge hidden volatility risk was seriously underestimated, revealing clear policy loopholes. Regulators subsequently raised participation thresholds for leveraged products and limited retail investors' position sizes to reduce market stampede risks from the source. Many people treat this as an isolated event in the Korean local stock market, but for those of us trading crypto and contracts, the reference value is huge. The underlying logic of stock market leveraged ETFs and crypto multiplier contracts is exactly the same: during the uptrend, leverage amplifies profits, and everyone chases higher prices and adds positions, completely ignoring potential stampede risks; once the market reverses downward, high leverage only accelerates principal losses, leaving no room for a calm exit. Currently, the thresholds for various market leveraged derivatives are getting lower and lower, allowing ordinary people to easily open high-leverage positions. The lesson from Korea this time is truly worth every trader's serious reflection. What leverage do you usually use in your trades? After seeing this Korean leveraged market crash, will you proactively reduce your position leverage and adopt a more conservative approach?On X Layer, OKB is still the only native gas token. If Exchange OS is advanced according to the roadmap, developers will need to stake OKB to deploy the marketplace, making it more than just a "platform discount token." Of course, fewer coins don't necessarily mean prices will rise. Actually, whether $OKB will rise depends on whether people use it on X Layer, whether there is real trading volume, and whether OKB's staking and gas demand can pick up. The chain is cold and empty; no matter how beautiful the model is, it's just a story on paper; Once the ecosystem really gets moving, a fixed total supply of 21 million tokens becomes interesting.The S&P 500 is one of the most captivating stories of 2025, continuing to defy expectations and reach new all-time highs despite economic uncertainty. But beneath this apparent strength lies a troubling reality that many investors are only beginning to recognize. More than 60% of S&P 500 tech stocks are currently trading 20% or more below their 52-week highs, revealing a market far less healthy than the headline numbers suggest. This divergence between index performance and individual stock health is one of the most prominent market dynamics in the current cycle. The strength of the S&P 500 is driven by a handful of large tech stocks that have captured the vast majority of investor capital. Meanwhile, the vast majority of tech stocks are sluggish, losing blood as liquidity becomes increasingly concentrated in a few dominant names. The numbers tell a grim story. Coinbase, once the darling of cryptocurrency and tech, has fallen 69% from its peak. The exchange's decline reflects the challenges facing the cryptocurrency industry and broader weakness in tech stocks. Oracle, the pillar of enterprise technology, has fallen 57% from its peak, indicating that even established companies are not immune to selective capital allocation in the market. Salesforce, the CRM giant, has fallen 57% from its peak, highlighting the challenges software companies face in the current environment. Strong index performance does not always reflect the broader health of the market. This is a lesson repeatedly learned in market history, but often overlooked during periods of frenzy$ICX (ICON) +6.35% ICX was developed by a Korean team and is known as the "Korean Ethereum." Today's rally was directly boosted by macro news of the South Korean government's promise to introduce stock market stabilization measures, with risk appetite for domestic Korean crypto assets surging. However, there are major fundamental concerns: ICON has officially announced that its mainnet will be shut down by the end of 2026, at which point ICX will need to be exchanged for the new SODA token of the new project SODX at a 1:1 ratio. If not exchanged within the deadline, the tokens will be reset to zero. Therefore, today's 6.35% increase is very likely a "doomsday round" speculation, where large players use positive news to push up their shipments and induce retail investors to buy and complete the swap migration. Participating in gambling is like trying to catch chestnuts from the fire, with risks far outweighing the rewards.July 30, 18:30 US Initial Jobless Claims + Core PCE Outlook #BTC #ETH #UNI #OKX #宏观 #Crypto Tonight's data will first focus on macro logic, not on token price levels. Core PCE represents sticky inflation, while initial jobless claims represent marginal employment changes; the combination of these factors influences the US dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk asset sentiment. Core PCE expectations have dropped from 3.40% to 3.30%. If the cooling continues further, the market will be more inclined to ease trading policies; If the rebound is higher than expected, it means inflation is not yet smooth, and Treasury yields are prone to a rebound. Initial requests increased from an expected 187,000 to 200,000. A slight warming is friendly to rate cut expectations, but if too weak, the market may start worrying about growth; If it's too strong, it will weaken the logic for rate cuts. I wait 15-30 minutes after the data and don't make the first candlestick. First, look at the direction of the US dollar and US Treasuries, then see if the crypto market follows suit. #BTC Watch 64,600-64,900 above; after holding steady, target 65,200-65,600; If 64,000 is breached, look for 63,500/62,800. #ETH The above 1645-1660 is the confirmation zone, followed by 1685-1710; If it falls below 1600, target 1565-1540. #UNI Only after a breakout above 2.90-2.95 would the target be 3.05; if below 2.76, the target is 2.65. This is solely a personal review and trading plan and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #ETH #UNI #OKX #Orbit #CryptoHotspot Analysis: Even the Fed Can't Save the Market Last night, the Federal Reserve concluded its July policy meeting, which I consider a complete failure. First, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, which aligns with my previous judgment. But more importantly, three voting members dissented, calling for a rate hike, indicating significant internal division within the Fed. It has been said before that the Fed is split between hawks and doves, and Waller is a dove among the moderates; his vote against a rate hike confirms this. The five working groups he introduced are clearly causing great internal pressure and unrest. At the first meeting, Fed opinion leader Waller openly questioned Waller: what exactly are these five working groups for? Who are the members? What impact will they have? Later, another voting member publicly opposed the reform for reform’s sake, warning it could degrade the Fed from an optimal solution to a suboptimal or even third-best solution. In short, after two meetings, Waller has not won over the internal members; instead, his move to create new working groups has angered many members. Now, no one wants to follow him in cutting rates—they are just waiting to see the outcome. The three dissenting votes were just an appetizer; the post-meeting press conference was a complete disaster. In just 40 minutes, Waller emphasized 30 times the goal of achieving 2% inflation, repeatedly stressing it must be exactly 2.0%, not 2-point-something, projecting an image of being firmly opposed to inflation. But what’s hard to believe is that, given his hawkish stance, why did he remain inactive despite internal calls for a rate hike? A Bloomberg reporter directly challenged him: you keep emphasizing price stability and high inflation, even ignoring signs of inflation easing in June. If you are so worried about inflation, why not raise rates today? What exactly are you waiting for? Then Waller said a key sentence that scared the market: although the Fed has done nothing in the past 60 days, the market has done a lot—meaning that since he took office, U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, and the market has effectively done the Fed’s rate hikes through declines. This implies the Fed is abandoning its role of guiding and stabilizing the market, letting the market be the villain while the Fed plays the good guy. As a result, the market completely gave up. After his speech, U.S. stocks plunged and Treasury yields rose again. Waller not only failed to hold down rates but also lost the Fed’s credibility. What he likely faces next is an out-of-control Wall Street and the anger of his two bosses—Biden and Trump. Since Trump took office, the desire has been to lower not just the federal funds rate but also Treasury yields. If yields don’t come down, the Treasury’s borrowing costs won’t fall, and Trump’s interest expenses won’t decrease—that’s the real crux. Waller’s passing the buck to the market to hike rates on its own directly causes the Fed to lose control over the market, which is a serious risk. Another highlight of this meeting is whether there will be a rate hike in September. Waller skillfully avoided the question, shifting attention to the global central bank meetings in August, saying the situation is still unclear and waiting for the five working groups’ recommendations. However, I believe this meeting clearly shows that the Fed’s pace of rate hikes or cuts depends on the U.S. inflation trend. The key to inflation lies in oil prices, the key to oil prices lies in the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the key to that conflict lies in Trump’s decisions. In a full circle, Waller, as Trump’s puppet, is passing this hot potato back to his leader, letting Trump draw the next K-line for the global capital markets. Finally, on the probability of a rate hike in September: according to market pricing, the probability has dropped from nearly 100% to 65%. This sounds like good news but actually isn’t. The market believes the Fed has passed the buck and is inactive; although the rate hike probability is lower, the financial market’s self-driven rate hikes—expressed through declines—will intensify, and market volatility will increase again. The above is purely my personal review and does not constitute any investment advice. Risk is borne by the individual.别觉得议息落地行情就尘埃落定，沃什的核心观点很多人还没吃透。 市场总等着美联储明确加息降息指引，习惯被政策牵着走，但沃什不打算走这种保姆式调控路线。 他的思路是让市场依靠各项经济数据自主定价，形成对应的金融环境，美联储后续再顺势确认市场已经消化的预期。 接下来两天的数据远比昨日会议关键：今日公布核心PCE、GDP、居民收支数据，直接体现通胀韧性与经济承压能力。 数据火热，市场会提前计价9月加息；数据走弱，市场主线重心会从抗通胀切换至经济增长。 周五日本央行还会释放政策信号，作为美方重要盟友，日本央行表态或许会进一步收紧全球流动性，填补美联储不愿主动释放的紧缩信号。 不用一味预判利空，行情存在向好可能，但所有数据、政策信号都要客观解读并及时应对。 与其把议息会议当作行情终点，不如将其视作新一轮价格博弈的开端。#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 代币化股票的版本太多了，但这是金融资产链上化的初期的必经之路，交易可及性永远击败法律纯洁性。 代币化股票正处于“百团大战”阶段，随着规模扩大与监管靴子落地，流动性黑洞效应将迅速清场无流量、无深度的中小型代币化平台。 挑选代币化股票时，流动性深度决定一切。SpaceX has secured a 1.6 billion military contract—can it buy the dip? Even a $1.6 billion order can't save it—is SpaceX really the next "good company and bad stock"? The $1.6 billion order rose 0.31% in after-hours trading. 0.31%。 The scene was surreal—the U.S. Space Force personally intervened, $1.6 billion poured in, and the stock price seemed unresponsive. A month ago, it was still the sexiest stock in the entire universe. On June 12, it went public at $135, the largest in history. On the third day, it surged to $225.64, with a market value surpassing $2.6 trillion, stepping on Microsoft's fist against Amazon. And now? $113. At the higher point, it was halved by 52%. Its market value evaporated by $1.2 trillion—losing an entire Tesla. Bears say: This company isn't worth that much at all. The net loss for the full year 2025 is $4.9 billion, and in the first quarter of 2026 alone, it lost $4.276 billion, nearly matching last year's total. The IPO valuation is 1.77 trillion yuan, equivalent to a price-to-sales ratio of 95 times. At the peak, the rate is 140 times. Wall Street's big bear Michael Barry bluntly criticized: "Not even worth $1 trillion." Veteran investors are even harsher: "The reasonable value is only $30 per share." ” Bears have already bet $25 billion, accounting for 32% of the circulating market. Three weeks ago, this figure was only 5% to 7%. The watchdog said: You don't understand this company at all. Starlink is expected to generate $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit by 2025. Military orders keep pouring in—just in May, 4.16 billion yuan was signed, and now another 1.6 billion yuan has been added. Morgan Stanley targets $300, Goldman Sachs $205. This is the only company in the world that can reuse rockets. A good company, right? But a "good company" does not equal a "good stock." On August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million shares was unlocked. At the current stock price, its value exceeds $100 billion. By the end of the year, tradable shares surged from 639 million to 5.33 billion—an increase of more than sevenfold. Do you think they'll keep it or sell it? @OKX planet Missing the market just means making less profit. Chasing the top with leverage may be an exit. The biggest gossip today is not KOSPI, which has pulled back nearly 40% from its peak in just over a month. Rather, no matter the market, the herd effect script is pretty much the same. KOSPI is expected to rise by about 75% by 2025. However, many Korean retail investors only entered the market after stock prices surged, bringing in financing funds and 2x leveraged ETFs to "buy stocks." CLSA analysts point out that many retail investors entered the market after the stock price had already surged significantly. To translate: The most dangerous thing is often not missing out on price increases, but fearing to keep missing out and giving up discipline when prices are at their peak. The crypto world is no different. When the knockoff market first kicked in, no one believed it. After the price tripled, everyone was afraid they wouldn't get on the bus. A subsequent normal pullback would be enough to wash out all the high-level chasers and leveraged funds. Sometimes it's not the narrative that's wrong. It's that the price has already overdrawn the narrative. Whenever market sentiment reaches the point where "if you don't get on board now, it's always too late," what you should really do is not place an order immediately, but ask yourself three questions first: Is the price expensive? Is the position heavy? If it drops by half, can I still stay in the market? The market never lacks another opportunity. What is truly scarce is whether you still have your principal when the next opportunity arises. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Capital is abundant, but income is poor Ten infrastructure projects raised a total of $6.89 billion. Yesterday, these ten projects combined earned only $1,119. • $A- $0 • $flow- $4 • $zk - $270 • $0G - $3 • $xtz - $29 • $Somnia_Network - $400 • $cele - $58 • $dot - $0 • $bera - $30 • WalrusProtocol - $325 EOS is an extreme case: $4.2 billion raised, with zero revenue on the day. Polkadot also gained nothing. Flow turned $746 million into $4. Current revenue is concentrated in the least funded projects. Somnia, Walrus, and ZKsync accounted for 89% of the day's total revenue, while Somnia's alone revenue exceeded the combined total of EOS, Flow, and ZKsync, which collectively raised $5.4 billion. The funds raised cannot tell you how much money you earned. At this rate, it would take this group about 16,900 years to break even. The daily data sample is too noisy; infrastructure projects never rely on first-day revenue to sell well—the selling point is that usage rates follow. But the outdated fallback is gone: when revenue dries up, projects used to rely on their tokens. That safety net disappeared during this cycle, which is the real reason for closing protocol projects this year.
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