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#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables: price increase growth has peaked, but the upward cycle is not yet over. Which stage is the supercycle in?
The memory chip industry is currently in the "high-level slow rise convergence phase" of an AI-driven super upcycle: price increase growth has clearly peaked, but the cycle is not yet over. This is the most accurate diagnosis of the industry's state in July 2026.
Q1 2026 is the most frenzied "explosion period" of this cycle—DRAM contract prices surged 90%-95% quarter-on-quarter, NAND Flash increased 55%-60%. But starting from Q2, the gains quickly receded: DRAM dropped to 58%-63%, NAND 70%-75%. By Q3, mainstream institutions predict DRAM gains will narrow further to 13%-18%, and NAND to 10%-15%.
"The peak of rate of change" has passed—this is Morgan Stanley's core assessment. But the peak has passed does not mean the cycle is over; the industry as a whole is still on an upward trajectory, only switching from a "100-meter sprint" to a "marathon jog."
External factor: AI demand is the only engine
This cycle is not driven by traditional consumer electronics inventory replenishment, but by the exclusive demand for AI computing power. An AI server uses 8-10 times more DRAM than a regular server, while high-bandwidth memory (HBM) consumes 3-4 times more resources than standard DDR5.
The three major OEMs (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) have allocated over 70% of their new capacity to HBM/server-grade storage, significantly squeezing the supply of general-purpose storage.
Internal cause: The real key issue is the "blood loss" in consumer electronics
External causes (explosive AI demand) are obvious and visible to everyone. But what truly determines whether the industry can "recover" is the internal structural problem—the continued weakness in consumer electronics.
In 2026, smartphone production is expected to decline by 15%-20% year-on-year, and laptop shipments will decrease by about 10%. Consumers have reached their limit in bearing the price increase of memory chips, with customers strongly resisting nearly 30% of DRAM price increases. The chain of price increases is breaking down: PC dealers report that the price of whole devices has risen by more than 5,000 yuan, and customer flow has clearly shifted toward lower price segments.
This is why the growth rate of price increases will narrow—not because AI demand has weakened, but because the consumer side, this "big eater," can no longer sustain itself.
Optimistic scenario (higher probability)
Supported by resilient AI demand, the upward cycle will continue at least until the end of 2027 through 2028. Currently, South Korea's two storage giants (Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix) have signed five-year long-term supply cooperation intentions with customers such as Nvidia, totaling over $950 billion. UBS expects the enhanced long-term agreement to cover 30%-40% of industry output.
These long-term contracts act like "price lock-in insurance," effectively smoothing traditional cyclical fluctuations. UBS forecasts that in 2027, demand for memory chips will grow by 36.2%, significantly exceeding the 19.3% supply growth rate, with the supply-demand gap widening from -8.1% in 2026 to -13.6%.
Conclusion: The industry will not experience a cliff-like decline, but subsequent gains will continue to narrow, and the Q1-level surges will not repeat.
Pessimistic scenario (risk alert needed)
Three core risks may cause the cycle to shift ahead of schedule:
Cloud providers face pressure to realize ROI on AI investments: The four major North American cloud providers will have combined capital expenditures of $725 billion by 2026. If enterprise AI investment returns are delayed, the contraction in capital expenditure will directly impact storage demand
Backlash from capacity release: Samsung, SK Hynix, and others will gradually release large-scale expansion plans in 2027-2028, with the NAND Flash supply-demand gap expected to turn positive by 2027
Technology Substitution Suppresses Demand: Google and others have developed "memory compression" technology that can reduce the memory required for AI computing to up to one-sixth, potentially significantly weakening long-term storage demand
The most critical judgment
This is not a structural recession, but a phased adjustment. The industry's investment logic has shifted from "making money from price increases" to "making money from demand certainty and profit duration." Manufacturers with AI-related product layouts and steady capacity expansion paces (such as SK Hynix and Micron) will be better able to weather cyclical fluctuations; Manufacturers highly dependent on the consumer electronics market face even greater cyclical pressure.
When the consumer electronics market stabilizes is the true signal of a turning point in this cycle. $SNDK $SKHYNIX This week's focus:
On July 31, there will be a massive options settlement, with Bitcoin settling nearly $10 billion, far exceeding the quarterly and annual settlements. This signal deserves our attention, indicating that there may be significant volatility this week, with the maximum pain point at 64000. According to historical patterns, such a large-scale monthly options settlement usually does not result in a one-sided trend but oscillates around the maximum pain point. Pay close attention to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision in the early hours of the 30th, which will most likely cause a sharp jump and drop before finally returning to a normal price trend. Those with leverage should fasten their seatbelts and beware of the awkward situation where you wake up to find the price unchanged but your position gone. #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 $BTC The most critical event this week is the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The market consensus is to hold steady, keeping the range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Interestingly, the probability that traders assign to a rate hike has climbed from 12% a week ago to 38%. All 76 economists unanimously say no change, but traders feel it's not that certain—this kind of divergence is rare.
The reason is simple: since Waller took charge, he doesn't like giving forward guidance, speaks little, and creates uncertainty. Oil prices recently surged past 100 and then dropped, keeping the inflation tension high.
I see $BTC hovering around 65,000, and $ETH bounced more than four points today; the market is clearly waiting for a signal. At times like this, don't max out your leverage betting on direction. Whatever the Fed says will be more reliable than guessing a thousand times now. Just watch and wait for the verdict on Wednesday.
#FederalReserve #Review #BTC [Graphic Observation | Oil Price Transmission] At 17:47 Beijing time, WTI was $81.6870 (-8.41%), Brent was $85.0400 (-8.72%), with a price difference of about $3.35 per barrel.
Observation perspective: Here, we don't just look at oil price fluctuations, but also at their transmission to inflation expectations, dollar liquidity, and risk asset valuations. If oil prices rise but the US dollar strengthens in tandem, crypto assets may actually come under pressure.
Background of Golden October: Why have the US dollar, crude oil, and gold recently seen a "rare simultaneous rise"? | Golden Ten Futures Heatmap—Breaking Traditional Logic! With the US dollar strengthening, gold and crude oil should come under pressure to decline. But in reality, why have the US dollar, crude oil, and gold recently seen a "rare simultaneous rise"? A picture to illustrate.
Verification point: WTI holds above the 20-day moving average and the spread is stable, consolidating within a range; If the spread widens and falls back below the moving average, demand pressure will be priced in again.
Risk warning: If OPEC+ caliber, inventory, or geopolitical events exceed expectations, the above transmission observations may need to be reassessed. For market observation purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.First, let's talk about some signals in today's market.
Just minutes before the news of the easing Middle East situation was announced, a mysterious trader precisely placed a massive $7 billion short position in the crude oil market. Minutes later, oil prices plummeted 8%, while Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded accordingly, precisely hitting the core support zone between 63,000 and 64,000. The accuracy of this timing is hard to explain as mere coincidence.
But don't rush to be bullish, because an ultimate bear market bottom signal that has never failed in history has just appeared.
Looking back, every bottom of Bitcoin's bear markets has been accompanied by the collapse and bankruptcy of major exchanges—without exception. In the past week alone, several exchanges have consecutively shut down and exited. This historical pattern confirms that we have officially entered the final liquidation phase of this bear market.
But why warn about traps? There are two reasons.
First, the signal of a sharp drop in the US stock market has not yet appeared. Historically, every true Bitcoin bull market launch requires seeing at least a 25% major pullback in the S&P 500, like the flash crash during the 2020 pandemic and the big drop in 2022. This signal has not yet flashed, so Bitcoin is likely to need to hit a deeper low.
Second, derivatives liquidity is extremely imbalanced. This rebound is mainly caused by massive short covering—after shorts are cleared, the liquidity below far exceeds that above, and there is a very high risk that market makers will sweep and liquidate orders downward.
Regarding the ultimate bottom, the CVDD indicator currently precisely sits near 47,000, with a time window between the end of Q3 and Q4 this year. The deeper the price falls, the more aggressively I will build positions, saving the heaviest bullets for the lowest point.
Finally, about Ethereum. This time, Ethereum's price is falling, but network transaction volume and actual usage continue to soar, which is a rare bullish divergence in history. Once ETH/BTC breaks the long-term downtrend on the weekly chart confirming a higher high, Ethereum will experience an extremely powerful breakout.
Short-term traps are everywhere, but the long-term bottom is near. Control your impulses and wait for that final drop.
If you find this useful, remember to like and follow Last Week's Weekly Review (7/20 Mon - 7/26 Sun)
BTC: Weekly analysis judged the weekly candlestick as a long lower shadow + short upper shadow doji-like shape (bulls slightly dominant), three weeks of volume contraction with price increase, the $58,000 strong support not broken, the $65,000 "reversal" judged as false, not the best entry timing.
Actual performance: Week opened at $64,731.5 → closed at $65,382.8, up +1.01%, weekly high $66,968.5 (7/21), weekly low $63,724.1 (7/24). The weekly candlestick pattern operated within the preset framework—on Tuesday, price surged to $66,968.5 near the $67,000 resistance zone then pulled back; on Friday, it touched $63,724.1 but the $58,000 strong support was never broken; on Sunday, it rebounded and closed above $65K. The $65,000 "reversal" false signal judgment was accurate, the strong support was intact, and the range-bound pattern fully aligned with the weekly analysis direction. ✅
Overall trend: Weekly analysis judged the market as range-bound, $58,000 strong support valid, $65,000 "reversal" judged false, currently not the best bottom-fishing timing (Holder Ratio/NUPL/CBBI three major bottom indicators have not reached the green zone).
Actual BTC +1.01% range-bound, the $58,000 strong support lowest this week was $63,724.1 and was never breached, the $65,000 "reversal" false signal judgment passed live market test, overall direction fully consistent with the weekly analysis. ✅
Accuracy: High. All three core judgments—weekly candlestick pattern, $58,000 strong support, and $65,000 non-reversal—hit the mark. The rebound to the $67,000 resistance zone followed by a pullback and recovery perfectly matches the "no action within range-bound" framework!Storj files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, token drops 16% Storj – a decentralized data storage project on the blockchain platform – has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US, while affirming that network operations will continue as usual. Notably, the company proposes converting token holders' rights into equity in the business after restructuring – a model quite rare in crypto-related bankruptcies. In my opinion, this event cTo get straight to the point: this ETH rebound feels more like "repricing driven by new positions," not a runaway one-sided long chase. Prices have momentum, but contract positions expand faster than prices; Whether it can go far depends on whether the spot can continue to hold, not how attractive the next candlestick is. As of 17:00 on July 27 (Beijing time), during the observation window from 05:01 to 17:01 for this round, Binance ETH/USDT rose from about $1,914.42 to $1,960.48, an increase of about 2.41%; OKX rose from about $1,914.83 to around $1,958 during the same period, showing consistent direction. Active buying on Binance spot accounts for about 53.3%, with buyers slightly dominant, but not overwhelmingly strong. What's even more worth watching is the position. OKX's ETH contract open interest size rose from about $1.741 billion at 05:00 to $1.827 billion at 16:00, an increase of about 4.9%, significantly outpacing the price. Binance's open interest, measured by ETH amount, increased by about 1.45% over the same period, and the nominal size in USD grew by about 4.06%. Here, it's important to clarify: part of the growth in the dollar comes from ETH's own rise and cannot be entirely counted as new capital; However, coin-denominated OI is also increasing, indicating this is not just short covering. Interestingly, while leverage increased, the bulls did not become more even. OThe Federal Reserve's rate decision is on Wednesday. Here's my judgment first: the interest rate will most likely remain at 3.50%—3.75%, but the press conference won't make the market feel at ease. Warsh is very likely to keep the possibility of a rate hike in September.
Currently, the market gives about a 64% probability of maintaining the rate this time, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike has risen to 36%. Core inflation cooled down in June, which temporarily does not support an immediate rate hike; however, rising oil prices and the 10-year US Treasury yield climbing near 4.7% prevent the Fed from prematurely declaring victory.
A more critical point: Q2 GDP and PCE will only be released on Thursday after the rate decision. The necessity for the Fed to hike rates directly without these two core data points is not high. So I tend to maintain the rate first and then decide whether to act in September based on inflation and employment.
US stocks may initially rally due to "no rate hike," then it depends on how Warsh talks about oil prices. If he believes energy price increases will continue to transmit to service inflation, the 10-year Treasury yield will rise further, and tech stocks are likely to spike and then fall back; if he emphasizes that core inflation is declining, the Nasdaq will get a breather, and the rebound strength of high-valuation tech stocks will be greater.
BTC is currently around $65,500, and $68,000 is the toughest level to break in this rebound. Maintaining the rate while downplaying a September hike gives BTC a chance to reach $68,000 or even $70,000; retaining the rate hike wording means $64,000 will most likely be tested again, and if weaker, $62,000 could be seen.
My forecast is: no rate hike, a hawkish-leaning press conference, with the market rising first then fluctuating. Wednesday's rate decision will only ignite the market; the subsequently released GDP and PCE will determine how far this rally can go. The US decision is on Wednesday, corresponding to 2 AM Thursday domestic time, with the press conference at 2:30 AM.5. Trading Hot Topic Observation: Why is the current market trending a new main theme every day, while ordinary people always drop right after chasing in?
The recent market is especially easy to create the illusion that money is being made everywhere.
Recently, the chip industry was the strongest, with funds chasing Micron and Nvidia; Subsequently, SpaceX's IPO attracted attention; Now, on its first day of listing, Changxin Memory's stock price surged by more than 500%. Meanwhile, rapid rotation continues among semiconductors, gold, military, and AI applications. (Reuters)
But when it comes to actual competition, many people find themselves always a step behind.
Seeing chip prices rise, buying in led to sector adjustments;
Seeing the war escalate, they chased energy stocks, and oil prices suddenly fell 4% the next day;
Seeing BTC break through $65,000, just as it was about to go fully invested, the price returned to the range.
The reason isn't necessarily poor judgment, but rather that capital is becoming increasingly short-term.
A large number of retail investors, quantitative funds, and short-term traders are concentrated in a handful of popular stocks. Once a piece of news appears, funds quickly flood in; Once the news spreads across the internet, the earliest participants have already started searching for the next hot topic. Reuters also pointed out that more and more "fast money" is driving funds to quickly switch from one hot trade to another, making the relationship between price and fundamentals even more confusing. (Reuters)
The most dangerous thing about this market isn't the absence of opportunities, but the fact that there seem to be too many opportunities.
It's easy for ordinary people to hold chips, AI, BTC, gold, and energy all at once, superficially diversifying, but in reality, all their purchases are the most congested trading in recent times.
Once risk appetite declines, these assets may be sold off together.
To deal with this market, I prefer to divide trading into two categories:
For main themes supported by fundamentals, you can wait for pullbacks and then gradually build positions;
Purely news-driven hotspots, only small positions are made, and exit positions are determined in advance.
If you enter after seeing a trending topic, your win rate usually drops significantly.
In short:
The biggest risk in the market now is not missing hot spots, but treating every hot spot as a long-term opportunity. The market changes its star every day, but the account can't withstand a daily chase.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR. $BTC $ETH $DOGE [Whales Bet on Maintaining Interest Rates, but BTC and ETH Remain Cautious in Short-Term Volatility]
This "Yes" large order indicates someone is betting that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates, but the market has not formed a truly unanimous optimism. Although Polymarket's probability of "no rate hike" remains at 80%, it has dropped by 13 percentage points during the week, indicating that as the meeting approaches, funds are repricing inflation and policy risks.
PPP detected an address with a historical win rate marked at 78% buying over 175,000 "no rate hike" contracts at an average price of 75.5 cents, investing about $139,000. Meanwhile, CME's "FedWatch" tool gives only a 66.3% probability of maintaining the current interest rate, showing a significant gap with the prediction market.
This gap is the key point. The prediction market pricing "no rate hike" higher means some funds are willing to pay a premium for no further policy tightening; however, the continuous decline in probability also shows the market does not believe the meeting outcome will necessarily be positive for risk assets. Maintaining the current rate only avoids a worse outcome and does not mean liquidity will immediately loosen.
The decision, statement wording, and subsequent path expectations in the early hours of July 30 Beijing time must be considered together. If there is no rate hike and the market's expectations for future policy improve, BTC and ETH may see a restoration of risk appetite; if the rate is just maintained with signals reinforcing a longer stay at high rates, the earlier rebound is still likely to become a window for profit-taking after a rally.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are at your own risk. $LAB The price has dropped again, which is honestly a bit hard to hold on. How can this coin drop so much? It has been falling for a very, very long time. If we look at $BEAT's trend, this price level should be the bottom. Back in February this year, $BEAT dropped from several yuan to about the same price as $LAB now. If $BEAT's future trend continues, $LAB may continue to rise over the next month. —————————————————— Let's analyze its contract data. It can be seen that this time, the long-short ratio of $LAB's contract changes relatively quickly. Combined with changes in its open interest, we can infer that currently, relatively few people in the market believe it can continue to plummet. Currently, the sentiment is that most people believe it is consolidating sideways or will rebound. —————————————————— I believe $LAB will rise step by step next month, and I don't think it will crash again. There is no reason for further plunge. I still want to share my previous logic: the current market isn't doing well, so it's relatively difficult to pull back a new demon coin. Therefore, market makers tend to cherish coins that are now Chengyao, somewhat like the shells of listed companies in the past. Some say, isn't listing on an exchange basically like already having a shell? You can't say that—listing on an exchange is not very difficult for many project teams. The most difficult part is,There's an interesting phenomenon in the recent market: Bitcoin inscriptions are booming, and various new projects on Layer 2 networks are taking turns performing. The profit-making effect in the BTC ecosystem is spreading out like ripples. And the first to receive this wave of benefits were not those flashy new public chains, but two familiar faces that many have almost forgotten—$LTC (Litecoin) and $BCH (BitCash). These two guys are truly 'living fossils' in the crypto world. One is called "BitGold, Light Silver," and the other is a direct lineage derived from a hard fork of Bitcoin. In terms of lineage, it is purer than 99% of altcoins on the market. But for a long time, their prices have been flat like an electrocardiogram turning into a straight line, constantly sideways and crushed by various new narratives. But recently, the two brothers suddenly rebounded in volume simultaneously, forcibly climbing off the list of "washed-up stars." Why did the capital suddenly think of these two "antiques"? Simply put, the Bitcoin ecosystem has too much money and is starting to spill over. New things like inscriptions, BRC-20, and Layer 2 are hot but also have high entry barriers and risks. A group of profitable funds, or those who missed out and didn't dare chase highs, will instinctively look for those "same source but cheap" assets to catch up on the rally. At this point, LTC and BCH came into view—after all, one is a Bitcoin code clone, the other is Bitcoin's own son, sharing the same technical roots and solid community consensus. These two established mainstream brands have an unmatched advantage that countercoins can't match: ample liquidity, stable consensus, and extremely low risk of a collapse. Buy$ETH just confirmed it. Structural breakout is in. 🚨 The market’s been waiting on this for months. Here’s how I see it playing out: 1. Downtrend broken + retest done ✅ 2. Now we’re chopping in the green demand zone, stacking 3. First target: $2,200 – $2,400 4. Next: impulse move toward $3,000 5. Then: parabolic push past $4,000 History says when $ETH breaks structure like this, liquidity spins into majors and alts next. Could be the key chart to watch over the coming weeks. I’ll traThis wave of oil price plungement is purely a "stampede scene" where the geopolitical premium has been instantly drained. Suddenly, the US and Iran pressed the pause button, and the safe-haven funds that had priced in the worst-case scenario immediately turned and fled, mercilessly dumping the market.
Essentially, it was a mismatch in expectations. Previously, the market overestimated tight supply and demand and the risk of supply cutouts. In reality, ships in the Strait of Hormuz are still moving, and the bubble bursts with a single injection. After sentiment faded, high oil prices lacked fundamental consolidation support, directly wiping out all the accumulated profit-taking.
On the market, the sharp drop not only cleared out floating chips but also completely disrupted the original long trading rhythm. Bears are riding the wave of news, while bulls don't even have room to resist. When panic selling turns into consensus, the price drop itself becomes the biggest bearish driver.
However, the market has always been forgetful. Once the shock from the news is fully absorbed, funds will eventually return to the true logic of the fundamental supply and demand base. This sudden plunge was, frankly, just cooling down an overheated market and squeezing out all the moisture.
#原油下跌约6%
#原油一度跌破90美元
#布伦特原油跌约6%
#WTI原油期货跌8% $
$BZ $CLThis week may determine your earnings in the second half of the year.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve, on Thursday Apple and Amazon, combined with tariffs and soaring oil prices, four consecutive coins triggered a weekly explosion.
Let me lay out this week's timeline for you.
On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve FOMC decision. Hawkish Chairman Warsh met against the backdrop of a rebound in inflation, noting that while the probability of a rate hike is not high, it is not zero. This is the master switch for emotions.
After Thursday's market hours, Apple and Amazon released earnings reports. The final battle among the seven giants will be used by the market to judge whether the entire AI capital expenditure story can continue.
There are also two lines in the background music. Global tariffs have been pushed to 15%, inflationary pressures have increased, the situation in Iran has not settled down, and oil prices remain high.
Four events are crammed into one week, and the outcome of any one could trigger dramatic fluctuations.
During this week of extreme uncertainty, I didn't make any aggressive moves, kept my positions at a level I could fully handle, and kept enough cash.
No guessing about the Fed, no betting on earnings, no short-term trading.
Because the biggest feature of this type of week is its huge volatility but random direction.
The odds of guessing the right direction are about the same as flipping a coin, but once you guess wrong and use leverage, the losses are real. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables $BTC These are my insights and reflections from reading and studying Abu's "Price Behavior," recorded for my review and reflections in crypto trading. The writing is somewhat jumpy and colloquial, suitable for friends with some knowledge of price behavior to discuss and learn together. Please do not repost. Definition: If breakouts and channels reflect the dominant forces of either bull or bear, then trading ranges are where neither the bulls nor bears can gain an advantage when they reach equilibrium. Breakouts and channels are ranges with angled angles at a glance, while trading channels are basically horizontal ranges. It's just that simple. Why is Abu called the trading range? Why not just call it a consolidation range or central zone? In fact, in relation to the concept of breakout and channel, this range is the price recognized by both bulls and bears for full trading here, while breakout and channel are the process of finding this price. Abu's entire set of price actions is essentially a careful explanation of the basic rules of price movement. Example Figure 1 shows Bitcoin's price movement over the past month, with the orange blocks representing the trading range. You can see the prices overlap extremely and suddenly reverse, with prices rising and falling sharply. I have no interest in trading; if it weren't for professional traders scalping themselves, most people would have forced trades here and inevitably incurred losses. Reflection 1: How to define the start of a trading range? In other words, how does the "breakout" and channel evolve into a trading range? At its core, it's about to identify the momentum driving price changes that is about to reach a balanced tipping point. As shown in Figure 2, the trading ranges are all based on a breakout followed by a slowdown in trend. Switching to the 1-hour or minute level to view the candlesticks is all the sameOn-chain RWA and tokenized stock perpetual contract monthly trading volume has surpassed $470 billion, with capital accelerating into derivative pools that possess real risk pricing capabilities, though front-end liquidity remains highly concentrated on leading platforms.
Monthly trading volume climbed from $85 billion to $470 billion within six months, demonstrating a nonlinear expansion of derivative liquidity. Among these, token stock perpetual contracts grew at seven times the rate of token commodities, with SPCX alone contributing $66 billion, indicating that cross-sector equity targets are driving major capital accumulation.
The top three platforms hold 80% of the trading share, showing that capital depth is gravitating toward centralized clearing layers. Unlike BTC maintaining a narrow range around $65,200 amid geopolitical turmoil, on-chain physical asset derivatives are independently reconstructing risk pricing channels.
The bullish scenario requires the buy-side depth of the three major platforms to continue expanding and SPCX trading to remain at the $66 billion high level. If FOMC rate cut expectations materialize and market funds do not flow out of traditional stock markets, the on-chain derivative pools will further absorb macro hedging demand, pushing the market beyond the $67,000 resistance zone. This logic fails if the leading platforms’ share falls below 70%.
The bearish scenario is triggered by excessive concentration of high-leverage positions causing liquidity shortages. If a leverage cascade occurs or concentration leads to insufficient clearing pool capacity, it can easily induce a chain of on-chain liquidation cascades. At that point, capital may rapidly withdraw to spot for risk aversion, dragging overall liquidity back down to the $85 billion baseline from six months ago.
In the next 7 days, key observations include whether the 80% trading volume concentration on the top three platforms loosens, and the real-time changes in on-chain RWA derivative clearing depth following the FOMC decision.
#贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟 #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌This is data that excites all "cyclical traders."
As of July 2026, the holdings of Faith Buyers (CBs) have reached 4.02 million BTC; This figure has already far surpassed the previous peak of 3.46 million bear stocks.
This means that although a large number of ancient chips awaken and cash out during the cycle, even more chips are taken away by believer buyers, especially when prices fall.
Although BTC has long been criticized by pessimistic investors, including: low bull market multiples, unattractive earnings-loss ratios, and expectations of dropping to 40,000, 30,000, etc.;
But none of this can shake the confidence and pace of buying and hoarding coins in the faith buyers.
Every time I see CB holdings hit new highs, I know we're one step closer to 'spring.'Google's stock price plunged—what exactly is the market worried about?
The core points boil down to two points:
First, free cash flow turned negative for the first time;
Second, the company will sharply raise its full-year capital expenditure for 2026 to $195–205 billion, raising market concerns that AI investment is too aggressive and returns may be delayed.
My view is: short-term market concerns are reasonable, and stock prices may continue to come under pressure.
But in the medium to long term, this may be the necessary and even the right radical move.
1. This is a defensive investment, not an optional "gamble."
If Google lags behind in computing power, its moat in search and advertising will be directly eroded by AI-native companies. This money is essentially "buying insurance + buying offensive options." When the technology is shifting paradigms, leaders must first overcome heavy capital stages, and cloud computing is a precedent.
2. Early indicators are already more aggressive than market pricing.
The 82% growth in cloud business, combined with a $514 billion backlog of orders, shows that demand is not unreal. As these orders gradually convert into high-margin income, free cash flow will turn positive again, and the elasticity may be quite significant. Buffett's $10 billion increase in June also shows that long-term capital does not view this investment as blindly burning cash.
So, the market is currently trading discounts due to "uncertain return pace."
This discount is reasonable in the short term, but if cloud business and AI monetization data continue to exceed expectations over the next 3 to 4 quarters, then today's sharp drop may just be a discount for the ultimate winner.
$GOOGETH running nearly 4x BTC's daily gain is worth noting. With oil retreating on ceasefire signals and the FOMC watch shifting toward a more dovish lean, the risk-on rotation is finding its way into alt-layer assets before macro fully commits. That is not random positioning. The security pressure narrative around ETH has not gone away, but the market is pricing around it rather than through it. Institutional flows tend to front-run clarity, not wait for it. Whether this holds into FOMC week dependWatch this one closely: CXMT, China's top memory chipmaker, lists July 27 in Shanghai, aiming to raise around $8.6B in Asia's biggest IPO of 2026. It arrives in the middle of a violent memory-chip cycle, days after Samsung and SK Hynix whipsawed, and it's as much a geopolitics story as a markets one.
The subtext is chip sovereignty. China floating its largest semiconductor offering in years, into a tight-memory market, is a bet that domestic supply becomes strategically essential regardless of the price cycle. For crypto the connection is oblique but real: the same AI-compute demand driving memory also drives the infrastructure narrative crypto-AI leans on. A mega-IPO priced into volatility says conviction in the secular story hasn't broken, even as the tape swings. Watching the debut and the demand.
Just my read, not advice.
#CXMTMemoryIPO #OKXOrbit$ADA Market Outlook
Current Price: $0.1649
$ADA is consolidating above horizontal base support, with lower-timeframe seller volume tapering off as spot order book absorption builds a local floor.
Support: $0.1550 – $0.1620
Resistance: $0.1820 – $0.2050
Targets: $0.1820 ➔ $0.2050 ➔ $0.2350
Holding above $0.1550 keeps the upside recovery structure active. PUMP thesis + trade setup from stream last week $1M a day with worst onchain conditions is notable, one of the few stories in crypto where the issue is actually the narrative & sentiment instead of the actual fundamentals of the business if $SOL onchain picks back up this hits all time highs relatively easily, $HYPE currently trades at a 15x higher valuation & they have the same two year revenue numbers #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch On-chain “casino” opens early! Changxin surges 471% hit precisely, where is the trader’s next goldmine?
Retail investors in A-shares are still lining up for IPO subscriptions, while on-chain whales have already "opened the market" two weeks in advance. CXMT’s opening price was ¥49.50, less than 5% off Hyperliquid perpetual contract’s prediction of ¥52 — this is no coincidence, it’s a power shift in pricing happening right now.
1. What happened?
Changxin Technology was listed on the STAR Market today, soaring 471% at open, with market cap briefly surpassing ¥3.3 trillion and turnover exceeding ¥100 billion, setting a record in A-share history.
But what really keeps institutional traders awake is another fact: Hyperliquid’s on-chain contract had already "set" the price at about ¥52/share on July 14, almost identical to today’s opening price.
This is not Hyperliquid’s first accurate prediction. Previously, for Cerebras’ listing, the on-chain prediction differed from Nasdaq’s opening price by only 1.3%; on SpaceX’s listing day, on-chain contracts traded $1.38 billion in a single day.
On-chain perpetual contracts are becoming the "price oracle" for IPOs.
2. Why is it so accurate?
Three keywords: 24/7, no barriers, real money.
A-shares have T+1 settlement, a ¥500,000 threshold, and no short selling — a large amount of capital cannot express views during the two-week "window" from subscription to listing.
On Hyperliquid, anyone can trade long and short, around the clock, voting with real money. Overseas funds can’t access the STAR Market? No problem, on-chain contracts give you synthetic exposure, allowing you to bet on direction without buying shares.
The result: global capital completes pricing two weeks in advance, and A-share opening is just a "formality."
3. What will happen next?
The door is already open.
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework allows anyone to stake 500,000 HYPE (about $28 million) to launch perpetual contracts on any asset. Currently, pre-market contracts for SpaceX, OpenAI, Cerebras, Anthropic, etc., are live, with cumulative trading volume exceeding $1.46 billion and U.S. stock-related contract open interest surpassing $2.25 billion.
What can be foreseen:
· The next A-share giant’s listing will also be "opened early" on-chain
· The next SpaceX, Stripe, Databricks listing will also be priced first on-chain
· CME and ICE have begun worrying about "manipulation risks" — traditional exchanges are panicking
4. How can traders seize the opportunity?
First, treat on-chain pre-market contracts as an "emotion thermometer." Watch price deviations and open interest changes before listing — that’s smart money voting with their feet.
Second, watch basis and fees. Extreme deviations between on-chain prices and institutional valuation ranges may signal arbitrage windows — but first clarify if it’s due to illiquidity or a real opportunity.
Third, use contracts for hedging. If you hold A-share positions and worry about overnight risk, opening opposite positions on-chain is one tool to hedge T+1 restrictions.
Fourth, and most importantly: beware liquidity traps. When CXMT contracts just launched, 24-hour turnover was only $1.32 million, two orders of magnitude less than SpaceX’s $1.38 billion. Where there’s no liquidity, slippage and liquidation can leave you with nothing.
5. Summary in one sentence
Traditional IPO pricing power is being "snatched" by on-chain markets.
It’s not a question of whether to participate, but when you start studying these rules.
⚠️ Risk warning: The above content is only market phenomenon analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. On-chain perpetual contracts have limited liquidity and volatile prices; leveraged trading carries the risk of total principal loss. Please make independent judgments and bear your own profits and losses. Talking about Changxin
Changxin’s listing isn’t just another chip IPO. It’s a re-rating signal for the whole memory sector.
When people hear “AI” they think $NVDA, GPUs, and data centers. But AI is starving for more than compute. It needs memory, bandwidth, and reliable supply. That’s why Changxin matters.
Globally DRAM has been a 3-player game: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron. $MU is the classic US storage cycle name. Changxin becoming the world’s 4th largest DRAM maker doesn’t flip the market share overnight, but it does put China at the table. It changes what “domestic memory” can mean.
The bigger shift isn’t just “domestic substitution.” It’s AI rewriting how we value storage.
Memory used to be pure cycles: up, overbuild, down, destock. Now AI eats the high-end first — HBM, server DRAM, enterprise SSDs. That squeezes supply for mainstream DRAM/NAND. Tailwind for $MU, $WDC, $SNDK. For Changxin, it’s an opening to fill gaps.
But the real test isn’t day-1 pop.
1. Can it keep expanding capacity?
2. Can it close the gap on DDR5, LPDDR, HBM?
3. Can it stay stable on equipment, materials, and customer quals with US export controls and supply chain pressure?
My take: Changxin marks storage moving from “cyclical” to “strategic asset” because of AI.
For US comps: watching $MU as the direct DRAM/HBM read. $WDC + $SNDK for NAND/enterprise. $NVDA still the upstream demand anchor.
#DailyOrbit 🇰🇷 The South Korean stock market fell more than 4% in a supplemental drop, with memory chip stocks continuing their decline
When the global semiconductor sector plunged sharply last Friday, the related decline was not reflected in time due to the suspension of the Korean stock market. After today's opening, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) opened more than 4% lower, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell more than 5% intraday, further cooling market sentiment.
At present, what truly determines the future trajectory of the AI industry chain is not the Korean stock market, but the financial reports that the American tech giant is about to release.
Next, I will focus more on the performance of **Microsoft and Google**.
The current market focus is no longer just on profit, but on AI capital expenditure (AI CapEx). If tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Meta continue to expand their data center investments and keep purchasing GPUs and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), then this round of adjustments in storage chip stocks is more likely to be a deep correction within a bull market, with market sentiment expected to gradually recover.
However, if these tech giants begin to cut capital expenditures or AI business growth falls short of market expectations, the semiconductor sector may still face further valuation downgrades in the short term.
📉 In the short term, I remain cautiously bearish.
Over the past two years, the semiconductor sector has seen huge cumulative gains; Combined with geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, ongoing rate hike expectations in the Korean market, and a decline in overall risk appetite, the market still has the potential to continue testing the bottom during earnings season.
🚀 But in the long run, I remain firmly optimistic about the AI industry.
At the core of AI competition is essentially a competition in computing power. As long as global tech giants continue to invest in building data centers, the demand for GPUs, HBMs, and advanced packaging will not disappear. Therefore, I prefer to view this adjustment as a reshuffling in a bull market rather than the end of the AI rally.
⚠️ The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
Dovish oil prices hit hawkish jobs: FOMC decision early Thursday morning Why I view hawkish defense
Early Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision is about to be announced. Currently, the market is engaged in a fierce contest between two forces: on one side is the dovish rate cut expectation triggered by the decline in crude oil prices following the easing of geopolitical tensions; On the other hand, the resilience of the job market and the services sector has maintained a hawkish tone, with Treasury yields fluctuating around 4.7%.
Which side will the wording lean toward the resolution and the subsequent Fed Chairman's press conference?
As a trader managing positions in the market and monitoring Treasury yields and funding rates daily, my judgment is that the July decision to hold steady has been fully priced in by the market, but the subsequent press conference language will be marked by a "hawkish hold." Don't let short-term oil price drops cloud your judgment and make high-leverage buys.
Combining data and market competition, let's talk about three layers of underlying logic.
First, the drop in oil prices only squeezed out a premium, without addressing the stickiness of core inflation. The recent drop in crude oil prices has indeed eased short-term CPI pressure, which is the doves' favorite argument. But what the Fed is really targeting is core PCE after removing energy and food, especially labor cost-driven services inflation. Current nonfarm payroll data and wage growth remain resilient, giving the Fed plenty of confidence to "not rush into large, consecutive rate cuts."
Second, what the Fed fears most is market front-running, and must tighten financial conditions in a hawkish tone. If the statements show some leniency, the US stock market and crypto markets will immediately be unable to hold back a strong rebound in estimated easing, and such a sharp easing of financial conditions can easily trigger a double inflation. The classic tactic of the Federal Reserve chair in history is that even when pausing rate hikes, he must use extremely harsh language at press conferences to suppress bullish sentiment.
Third, the true transmission path to the crypto market. The moment the decision is announced (holding steady), algorithmic trading often triggers a short-term upward surge, but as soon as the subsequent press conference signals that "high interest rates need to be maintained longer" or "extreme caution toward rate cuts," the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will quickly climb, precisely harvesting short-term gains in the crypto market.
Finally, let me share my personal position and response strategies.
Before the decision was made early Thursday morning, my approach was simple: clear all high-leverage contract positions and maintain a spot position defensive at around 40%. Never bet on the so-called "big doves speaking" out of luck; instead, patiently wait for the resolution and press conference boots to land, then observe the breakout confirmation points between US Treasury yields and the $BTC market before making right-side positions.
Do you prefer to maintain a cash defense early Thursday morning, or bet on a dovish rebound? Feel free to share your practical plans in the comments section.
The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR，NFA。$CORE CORE持续阴跌、靠大饼维稳暗藏6大类致命风险，直白拆解
一、代币抛压永久释放风险（最大核心风险）
1、团队、国库合计7亿枚零成本筹码，2026年处于36个月解锁高峰期，每月上千万枚持续流入市场，供给永远大于买盘，阴跌是长期常态，每一轮利好反弹都是出货窗口。
2、国库代币早已批量抵押借贷稳定币，后续必然分批抛售还债；原本Gas销毁机制取消，手续费全部划入基金会，流通盘只会不断扩容，无通缩托底。
3、大饼宣传的回购完全落空，SatPay无商用零营收，链上无持续性回购买单，没有任何机制对冲海量解锁抛压，价格重心会不断下移、持续创新低。
二、量化操纵与流动性陷阱风险
1、盘口长期固定等额量化对倒刷虚假成交量，真实买盘极少，放量不涨、缩量暴跌是常态，人为压制所有上涨空间，不存在趋势性反转行情。
2、流动性分层风险：深度套牢盘只会小幅抄底，场外资金集体避雷，一旦项目方放缓做市，会出现插针暴跌、滑点极大，想止损都卖不出去。
3、质押锁仓套路风险：B14G、节点质押诱导散户锁死筹码，二级市场只剩项目方单向抛售；质押每日增发CORE持续通胀，进一步稀释持仓价值，锁仓期间币价腰斩也无法减仓避险。
三、生态空心化、叙事兑现失败风险
1、所有大饼全是炒冷饭营销概念：比特币电网只是自家产品线打包更名，并非外部重磅合作；SatPay、BTC支付、机构资管全线跳票，仅停留在预约内测，无商户、无手续费现金流，生态零造血能力。
2、BTCFi赛道竞品（Stacks、Babylon）技术、机构资源全面领先，CORE无独家核心壁垒，资金持续分流，生态很难新增真实用户与增量资金。
3、项目运营全靠变卖代币维持，没有营收支撑，一旦代币失去流动性，整个生态宣传、节点补贴、团队运营都会直接停摆。
四、高度中心化、项目方跑路、拔网线风险
1、名义DAO去中心化，实际国库调配、量化做市、战略规划全部由核心团队单方面掌控，社区无任何话语权，大额筹码处置完全不受监督。
2、团队筹码零成本，只要抛售完成大部分份额，随时可以缩减运营、停止更新生态、放弃市值管理，最后留下海量套牢散户。
3、无高额生态营收绑定团队利益，项目方没有长期经营动力，套现离场是最终目标，所有宏大叙事只是延缓出货的工具。
五、交易所下架、归零风险
1、持续操纵盘面、虚假刷量、叙事造假，长期会触发交易所风控核查，一旦定性市场操纵，会逐步关闭交易对、停止提币、直接下架代币。
2、增量资金彻底断层后，流动性会持续枯竭，最后沦为无量空气币，价格无限趋近归零，高点入场投资者亏损95%以上，几乎没有回本可能性。
3、部分中小交易所已经缩减CORE交易深度，后续流动性只会越来越差。
六、国内政策与维权无门风险
1、我国明确禁止虚拟货币交易炒作，不受法律保护，本金亏损、被操纵割韭菜后，报警、投诉很难立案，资金损失无法追回。
2、项目主体、服务器全部离岸部署，操盘团队信息不透明，跨境取证、追责难度极大，即便收集操纵证据，维权周期漫长且成功率极低。
3、换汇买卖稳定币容易触发银行风控，银行卡被冻结，额外增加财产损失。
⚠️风险提示：虚拟货币交易炒作在我国属于非法金融活动，以上内容仅客观拆解项目风险，绝不构成任何投资、抄底建议。💡 A Neglected Macro Variable In late July, what seemed like a "tech civil war" news quietly trended: the White House is considering cutting off U.S. companies' access to Chinese open-weight (open-source) AI models, while nearly 200 Silicon Valley startups jointly wrote a letter pleading with the president to "stop acting." For crypto players, is this just gossip? Wrong. This is a heavy blow behind the AI narrative that is reshaping the computing power and capital landscape—only by understanding it can you see where the next round of AI tokens and safe-haven funds will flow. 🔍 Break down four questions for you Q1: What exactly does the White House want to seal? A: What is sealed is a "channel," not a specific company. Typical examples include DeepSeek V4, Kimi K3, Qwen3-Max, and GLM-5.2—these are China's open weighting models. The trigger was the release of the Kimi K3 on July 16 by the dark side of the moon—2.8 trillion parameters, currently the largest open-source weight model, with full weights released on July 27; Its performance is second only to Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6, but its price is only one-third that of the former. After 48 hours of launch, the GPU was maxed out, and the Dark Side of the Moon immediately suspended new user subscriptions. Now Washington couldn't sit still. Q2: Why did 200 Silicon Valley companies jointly oppose it? A: The leader is the Little Tech Association ("Little Tech Camp"), which was just established on July 13.ETH running nearly 4x BTC's daily gain is worth noting. With oil retreating on ceasefire signals and the FOMC watch shifting toward a more dovish lean, the risk-on rotation is finding its way into alt-layer assets before macro fully commits. That is not random positioning. The security pressure narrative around ETH has not gone away, but the market is pricing around it rather than through it. Institutional flows tend to front-run clarity, not wait for it. Whether this holds into FOMC week dependPUMP thesis + trade setup from stream last week
$1M a day with worst onchain conditions is notable, one of the few stories in crypto where the issue is actually the narrative & sentiment instead of the actual fundamentals of the business
if $SOL onchain picks back up this hits all time highs relatively easily, $HYPE currently trades at a 15x higher valuation & they have the same two year revenue numbers刚看到消息，Payward Europe在立陶宛拿了EMI牌照。Kraken的母公司，直接打通了欧元区法币通道。这种感觉就像，你以为大家还在等监管，其实人家早就把合规接口一个一个焊死了。欧元出入金，以后像呼吸一样自然。不是说今天马上就拉盘，但这种事，才是真家伙。那些大所永远在你看不见的地方，砌墙、铺路、埋管道。等我们反应过来，水已经灌满了。我盯着这条消息看了五分钟。突然觉得，那些天天吵着牛市熊市的人，根本没看懂牌桌。真正的局，是在监管土壤里生根的。Kraken这种老牌玩家，动作不快，但每一步都踩在关节上。去年MiCA还在讨论阶段，他们就提前蹲点了。这一手，不是激进，是稳扎稳打到让人觉得可怕。欧元区，全球第三大法币池子。谁先拿到合规枢纽，谁就捏住了下一轮的命脉。$ETH、$USDC这些在欧元对加密交易里占比高的资产，长期看，流动性只会更厚。不是说现在就要冲进去，但格局已经变了。那些还在纠结今晚某机构放什么屁的人，醒醒吧。大钱进场，从来不是靠一根针。Kraken这步棋，我觉得比任何ETF通过都更有信号意义。因为这是机构自己在建桥，而不是等别人修路。后面只会越来越多传统资本，顺着这种合规水道ETH running nearly 4x BTC's daily gain is worth noting. With oil retreating on ceasefire signals and the FOMC watch shifting toward a more dovish lean, the risk-on rotation is finding its way into alt-layer assets before macro fully commits. That is not random positioning.
The security pressure narrative around ETH has not gone away, but the market is pricing around it rather than through it. Institutional flows tend to front-run clarity, not wait for it. Whether this holds into FOMC week depends on how AI earnings land, but the structure reads more like accumulation than a relief pop.
Not advice, just analysis.
#OKXOrbitThe foundation of this building—poured just half a year ago, the main structure is soaring upward at a rate of 450%. From 85 billion cubic meters of earthwork in January to 470 billion tower crane capacity in June, the trading volume of tokenized real asset perpetual contracts is rewriting the construction limits in architectural history.
The most striking is the tokenized stock perpetual layer—growing sevenfold, like the express elevator in the building that goes straight to the clouds. SpaceX (SPCX) with a monthly volume of 66 billion has already supported the highest main beam in the entire skyline, yet it is just a door and window hanging on one wall. OKX and two other platforms—the three main load-bearing walls—carry over 80% of the RWA perpetual volume in June, while all other components combined are merely decorative strips on the facade.
The most common misconception on the construction site: treating the whitepaper as the blueprint, and the marketing model as the structural calculation book. What truly determines how long a building can stand are the geological surveys beneath the foundation, the yield strength of the rebar, and the curing cycle of the concrete. When a project scales from 85B to 470B in six months, its node load capacity, redundancy factor of the liquidation engine, and settlement rate of cross-chain anchoring—these hidden engineering acceptance reports are more important than the trading volume curve.
Market depth linkage of the US stock token $XNFLX? That’s just vortex-induced vibration of a high-rise in strong winds. What really matters is the wind tunnel test data: when the share of load-bearing walls (integrated platforms) exceeds 80%, any microcrack in a wall can cause a sudden change in the building’s overturning moment. I’m staring at the construction log showing 470B of concrete poured in June—then looking at the 660B cantilever length of the single SpaceX column—this is not a plan that a structural engineer would sign off on. # #rwaperpshit470b With Changxin Technology successfully completing its IPO fundraising, domestic DRAM has officially entered a new phase of large-scale expansion, fundamentally changing the competitive logic of the global storage industry, directly putting pressure on valuations and performance of US-listed storage companies. Previously, the global GM DRAM market was long controlled by the three major overseas manufacturers, maintaining a high boom cycle and stable profitability through capacity barriers. After Changxin Technology gains ample capital support from its listing, it will rapidly unleash mature process DRAM capacity, continuously enter the mainstream consumer electronics and server general-purpose storage markets, directly diverting market share from overseas manufacturers, and breaking the original supply monopoly. Market trading sentiment has shifted significantly to pessimism, with funds pricing in expectations of "oversupply and falling prices" in advance, causing continued pressure on US storage stocks like Micron. Analysts believe that compared to the highly competitive high-end HBM, competition in the general-purpose DRAM sector will enter a white-hot phase. The traditional core of U.S. storage companies continues to shrink, the industry's gross margin center may systematically shift downward, weakening the sector's medium- to long-term upward logic. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables $MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Increase your position!
Here it comes!
C2C launch!
Continue to add 20,000 USD!
My fate is mine, not heaven's
Dog farm, you can't wash mine
——
$ETH has been pulled to around 1960
But from 1975 to 2000, it was still a critical pressure zone
Only by holding 2000 can you truly open up space
It fell back below 1900
This breakout is likely to turn into a bullish incentive
Moreover, on July 24, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $70.7 million
Institutional funds have not yet entered continuously
——
$LAB Current price is 0.1464
15-minute MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all above the price
The short-term structure remains weak
0.1448 is the first support
0.1418 is the pin low
Holding the line still gives a chance to rebound to 0.1503
Only by regaining above 0.1548 can the downward trend be eased
However, LAB had previously experienced an extreme crash
The project team explained that large players and independent trading institutions were selling in concentrated fashion
On July 14, about 16.23 million tokens began to be released
Market selling pressure has not completely disappeared
Adding positions at this level only reduces costs
Weak structures cannot be directly changed
Dog farms can indeed suddenly pull the needle
But it could continue until the bulls hand over their chips
——
$SNDK SanDisk was about $1,436 before trading
Down about 10.8% from the previous close.
Last Friday, the storage sector collectively plunged
Both Micron and SanDisk have seen their funds cashed out
It is more like loosening of chips at high levels and sector valuation cuts
It's not that the company's fundamentals suddenly collapsed
SanDisk's revenue in the last quarter was $5.95 billion
Month-on-month growth of 97%
Data center business grew 233% quarter-over-quarter
Next quarter revenue guidance is between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion
There will be a new earnings report on August 5
The fundamentals are solid
However, fluctuations before the earnings report will not be small
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Is Nvidia's success really due to its AI strategy, or just being in the right place at the right time? $NVDA
Nowadays, many people looking back at Nvidia say:
Jensen Huang understood AI more than a decade ago.
But if you analyze it carefully, this statement is a bit simplistic.
In 2006, Nvidia launched CUDA.
What it did back then was not predicting today's large model revolution.
Because at that time, AI had not yet developed into the industry form it is today.
What Nvidia truly bet on was:
GPUs could be used for more than just gaming.
They could also become an important tool in broader computing fields.
This was a judgment about computing architecture.
Not a precise gamble predicting the future AI explosion.
What happened afterward is well known.
With the development of machine learning and large-scale model training, GPUs gradually became one of the most important infrastructures in the AI era.
Nvidia's early establishment of a software ecosystem also gave it a huge advantage in this wave.
So, is Nvidia's success due to vision or luck?
I think the answer might be:
Both.
It did not know in advance that ChatGPT would appear.
Nor did it accurately predict AI would become the world's biggest investment theme in a certain year.
But it bet early on one direction:
Future computing demands would increasingly rely on parallel computing.
And AI happened to become the most powerful application scenario in this direction.
Many business opportunities are like this.
It's not that someone really saw the answer ten years ahead.
But rather, in an uncertain future, they stood early in the right position.
Of course, Nvidia now also faces new questions:
How long can AI investment continue?
Can the high market valuation be realized in the future?
These will become new tests.
So what do you think:
Is Nvidia's success today more from Jensen Huang's judgment?
Or from the AI era just happening to choose it?
#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 Over the past 7 days, Binance's reserve assets have seen a net outflow of over $738 million; Bybit's BTC wallet balance has dropped by 4.08%.
These two numbers only indicate that the asset is leaving the exchange address; they cannot be directly equated with user panic or translated as long-term positive news.
Afterwards, two things need to be considered: whether the outflow is continuous; Funds go to cold wallets, on-chain protocols, or other platforms. Looking at the weekly net outflow alone, the information is still insufficient.I am Cige. Brent and WTI crude oil prices plunged 8% intraday, with WTI falling below $82 and Brent below $86. From above $100 last week to $82 now, it has dropped nearly 20% in a week. The geopolitical risk premium is clearing out at the fastest pace.
The US military has paused airstrikes, Oman and Iran have made progress in negotiations, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume. The market is pricing in a scenario where the Middle East conflict will not escalate further and oil supply will not face substantial disruption. The oil price crash directly alleviates inflation concerns, US Treasury yields have retreated from 4.7%, and the probability of rate hikes has been repriced from 38%. Risk assets are getting a breather.
BTC rebounded from around 64,000 to 65,195. The short position at 66,100 is temporarily under pressure, but the macro logic is turning favorable. The oil price decline means the urgency for Federal Reserve rate hikes is reduced, reopening policy space for PCE and FOMC meetings. This is positive for all risk assets.
However, do not blindly chase BTC longs just because oil prices have crashed. The oil price drop only eases rate hike pressure; it does not resolve core issues like the stalled CLARITY Act, uncertainty in tech earnings reports, or liquidity tightening. The technical resistance in the 66,100 short position logic still exists, and the resistance zone between 65,900 and 66,900 has not been effectively broken.
Strategically, continue holding the 66,100 short position with a stop loss set above 67,000. If BTC breaks above 66,200 with volume and holds, exit the short and reverse. If the price repeatedly tests but fails to break through between 65,500 and 66,000, continue holding the short, targeting 64,500 to 64,000. The oil price crash is positive, but technical resistance requires real capital to break through, not just news-driven moves.
Cige has finished speaking. Ponder it carefully. #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌 $BTC $ETH $DOGE The Bitcoin rally attempts keep failing for the same reason.
Real spot demand is still contracting.
Futures occasionally pump things up, but without spot following, it fades.
Combined demand right now: -127,000 $BTC .
This looks like seller exhaustion, not a recovery. The real trend needs both sides to agree.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
我认为在短线交易中最难克服的挑战是自我认知的盲区与动态修正。
这些年的币圈经历让我深刻意识到，比市场更复杂的，是你对自己的误解。很多人都陷入过一个致命幻觉：把偶尔盈利当成系统优势，把运气爆棚误读为实力碾压。币圈尤其擅长制造这种幻觉——牛市里随便买都能涨，杠杆一开利润翻倍，你会真心觉得自己是天才。但这种虚假的自我认知，会在市场风格切换时让你付出惨重代价。
第一个盲区是归因错误。赚了钱，归因于自己的判断力；亏了钱，归因于市场操纵、黑天鹅、流动性不足。币圈7×24小时的交易特性，让这种选择性归因变得极其隐蔽。你可能连续三周盈利，觉得自己摸透了某个币种的脾气，但第四周同样的策略却连续爆仓。问题出在哪？很可能前三周只是恰好匹配了那段行情的节奏，而非你真的掌握了什么规律。短线交易的反馈周期太短，短到你没有足够样本去区分能力和运气，而币圈的高波动性进一步模糊了这条边界。
第二个盲区是策略与性格的错配。我见过太多人，明明性格急躁、受不了持仓过夜，却硬要模仿价值投资的长线逻辑；或者内心厌恶高频决策，却被币圈的快节奏逼着不断操作。更常见的是策略漂移——今天看到某人用突破策略赚了，明天学；后天看到网格交易稳，又换。十年里我逐渐明白，没有最好的策略，只有最适合你的策略。而这个适合，需要你对自己有近乎残酷的诚实：你的风险承受能力到底是多少？你能接受的最大连续亏损次数是几次？你真正享受的是分析的过程，还是交易的刺激？这些问题的答案，往往藏在你爆仓后的深夜反思里，而不是盈利时的欢呼中。
第三个盲区，也是最难的，是认知的时效性。币圈这些年，市场结构发生了天翻地覆的变化。2017年的ICO狂潮、2020年的DeFi Summer、2021年的NFT泡沫、2024年的ETF机构化——每一波行情的逻辑内核都在演变。你十年前验证有效的盘感，在今天可能完全失效。最难的不是学习新东西，而是承认自己过去引以为傲的经验，可能已经变成了负担。很多老交易员倒在这里：他们曾经是对的，所以坚信自己永远是对的。
所以我认为短线交易最难克服的挑战，不是某个具体的技术难点，而是持续地、诚实地、动态地认识自己——在盈利时不膨胀，在亏损时不逃避，在市场变化时不固执。这听起来像鸡汤，但是币圈血与泪的教训告诉我：能活下来的，从来不是最聪明的，而是最清楚自己边界在哪的人。Recently, tokenized stocks like XIBM and XHOOD have been launched. Some people ask: If you buy them with USDT, is that equivalent to holding IBM or Robinhood shares? The answer is: don't rush to equate them. OKX's announcement clearly states that these assets provide price exposure to the underlying stock or ETF, can be traded 24/7×, and also support deposits and withdrawals via Solana and X Layer; But it does not mean you own shares in the corresponding company, nor does it carry shareholder voting rights. This is interesting: it brings traditional asset prices into on-chain trading hours but does not bring full shareholder identities over. However, for beginners, its advantages are also obvious: no need to open a traditional brokerage account or complicated overseas account procedures; USDT can directly participate in US stock price fluctuations, with a lower entry barrier and faster entry. So, when a newcomer sees a "stock token," they should first ask three questions: Do I get ownership or price exposure? How should company actions be handled? Is it available in your area? Once you figure this out, let's discuss whether it's convenient or not. This is for knowledge sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.Gold breaks through $4100.
Many people think:
Gold rising is bad for tech stocks.
But this time, it's not.
Because the core reasons driving gold up are:
✔ Geopolitical risk aversion
✔ Rising expectations of rate cuts
At the same time,
oil prices are plummeting.
This means:
the market is repricing future interest rates.
If the Federal Reserve signals dovishness,
tech growth stocks will actually be the biggest beneficiaries.
So:
Gold rising ≠ AI ending.
In the coming days,
the real determinants of the AI market are:
Microsoft,
Meta,
Apple,
and the Federal Reserve.
The importance of this week
may surpass the past month.
$XAU $SNDK AI capital has come back again, but this time, the script has completely changed. If you still expect this wave of returning to flow to be chaos, or that just an AI concept coin will bring chaos, then you'll most likely be educated by the market. This time, capital has clearly gotten smarter—no longer blindly throwing money into small-cap, miscellaneous projects, but instead targeting AI blue chips with physical projects and offline implementation scenarios to aggressively pursue them. The most typical example is $WLD (Worldcoin). This project, endorsed by OpenAI founder Sam Altman, has been pushing the "eye scanning + digital identity" system head-on, but recently faced widespread skepticism and the token price has undergone a deep correction. But as soon as this AI narrative restarted, it immediately took the lead as the sector vanguard. Why? Because when market sentiment shifts from FOMO to rational scrutiny, funds instinctively move toward those "visible and tangible" targets. WLD's physical scanner Orbs, once criticized for being cumbersome and cumbersome, have now become proof that "we're really working"—this shift in style is quite ironic. The tide recedes, the naked swimmers drown, and the underwear swim afloat. The underlying logic of this AI narrative hasn't changed: AI Agents and human-machine identity recognition—these two long-term directions remain the most certain tracks. AI agents address the issue of "in the future, AI will trade and handle matters for you," while human-machine identity recognition addresses "how to prove online that you are a real person, not AI." These two demands will only grow stronger as AI technology expands. The placeThe "River's Edge" Effect: Where Market Frenzy Meets Reality The $ONDO and $AAVE showstoppers may have flashed green, but on-chain data reveals the faint whispers of a different narrative. Liquidity is not being sprayed across the board; it's being funneled through select channels, leaving the rest in the dust. $BCH and $VIRTUAL are riding the coattails of the winners, while $ALLO's losing streak shows the true weight of the market's sentiment. We're not in an "altseason" just yet; we're still rMy best friend told me something yesterday
She said her husband deals in crude oil futures
This week, I lost $450,000
At first, I thought she was joking
The result is real
A crude oil arbitrage whale worth tens of millions
Beauty Oil and Boil opened positions in the opposite direction
Both sides suffer losses
I spent 450,000 yuan straight on it
Then guess what
This matter actually has something to do with our crypto community
Yesterday, Iran intercepted six ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices immediately jumped
But what about BTC?
65200 remains completely motionless
You say BTC is desensitized, right?
Not really
When the US and Iran had just calmed down, BTC also rose
But now, the market's response to geopolitical news has become increasingly sluggish
The first missile flight dropped by 2%.
Second drop by 0. 09%
The third time oil prices rose, BTC stopped following
This is a typical desensitization process
When everyone anticipates geopolitical risks
Risk itself is worthless
Oil price fluctuations persist
However, the transmission effect on encryption is weakening
Instead, it was Changxin Technology on the A-share side
A single day's turnover reached 130 billion yuan
It attracted the attention of a large amount of capital
So my judgment is
In the short term, the linkage between crypto and traditional energy is weakening
Crypto is following its own independent logic
Geographic news is fine for short-term trading
But do not place heavy granaries or gamble them
The biggest opportunity is still in tracks you can understand
By the way, I also took a look at recent developments, which are in several directions:
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The FOMC is the biggest event of the week. After the unexpected nonfarm payroll shock, expectations for rate cuts have risen, but inflation has not yet reached target. BTC's rise from 58K to 65K has already exceeded many expectations ahead of time. After the FOMC is implemented, if the hawkish side is hawkish, there may be a short-term pullback, but if the dovish side is dovish, it could be the catalyst for breaking through 67K.
#英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保
This figure is outrageous—$250 billion is equivalent to the GDP of a small and medium-sized country. NVIDIA endorsed OpenAI, SoftBank added 21 bank lenders, and the scale of AI infrastructure investment has now surpassed the scope of an entire industry, turning into a national-level infrastructure race.
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元
The market size of on-chain derivatives has grown so large that it cannot be ignored. A monthly trading volume of $470 billion means institutions are investing real money in on-chain products. RWA is transforming from a concept into a pillar of the entire DeFi ecosystem, and this trend will not be reversed by short-term market trends.
#地缘 #脱敏ETH Real Market Analysis for Late July 2026 (Condensed Version)
First, the premise: this is not a prediction, but an objective listing of current bullish and bearish logic. No analysis guarantees profit; the key is how you respond.
1. Current Core Background
Macro: The Federal Reserve's interest rates have been high for a long time, and market focus has shifted from "when to cut rates" to "whether a rate cut will result in a soft landing or recession." Risk assets are in a highly sensitive period.
Ethereum itself: Spot ETFs have been running for some time, but incremental funds have fallen short of expectations. Layer2 is experiencing severe diversion, mainnet gas consumption has sharply decreased, the deflation narrative has weakened, and recent supply has shown slight inflation.
On-chain data: Exchange stock remains low (holders are reluctant to sell), but new address growth is slow, and signals from retail investors entering the market are weak.
2. Recent Core Operating Periods
$2,800-4,200
This is the current large box. Only when the upper limit is effectively broken or the lower limit is considered a confirmation of a new round of one-sided market movement. Before that, operate using interval thinking.
3. Bullish Reasoning
Whale cost zone support: The $2,800–$3,100 range is the cost line for a large number of institution-managed addresses and whales. If the price drops to this point, strong buying is likely to support the bottom.
Weekly chart structure intact: The weekly EMA55 remains upward, indicating a complete upward trend structure. Currently, it is near the middle band of the weekly channel, which is a benign correction rather than a trend reversal.
The hard logic behind rate cut expectations: The world's major central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle is a clear sign. Once liquidity substantially improves, ETH as a "tech-savvy crypto asset" will be the first to benefit.
ETH/BTC exchange rate stabilizes: After a prolonged decline, signs of weekly bottoming divergence have appeared in the 0.055-0.06 range. If the exchange rate pair is confirmed to reverse, ETH will start a catch-up rally against BTC.
4. Bearish risk
Massive volume trapped above 4200: This is the resistance zone at the historical high, with significant accumulation of chips above. With current trading volume, a breakout in one go is extremely difficult; the first time it touches the market, it is highly likely to be subjected to violent sell-offs.
L2 drains mainnet value: More and more activities run on L2, blob data fees are extremely low, and ETH burn volume drops sharply. Persistent inflation weakens the narrative of "ultrasonic money," affecting long-term valuations.
Macro Black Swan Risk: If U.S. economic data shows signals of a recession beyond expectations (such as a sharp rise in unemployment), it could trigger a liquidity crisis with indiscriminate sell-offs, and ETH could instantly break through technical support.
Imbalance between contract long-short ratios: When funding rates remain high, it indicates crowding of bulls, making it easy for the market to push downward and surge in longs. Only after clearing leverage can you move forward lightly.
5. Key Game Points for Contract Players
1. Lock on $3,100
This is the iron bottom of the current cabinet. The daily close effectively broke below this level, with 2800 visible below. At that point, the bullish mindset must be temporarily abandoned.
2. Watch the breakout pattern between 3800 and 4000
You must see a consecutive, high-volume bullish candlestick above 3800 to have the momentum to challenge 4200. A small, small rise with shrinking volume to this area is highly likely to be a bullish trigger.
3. Replace directional thinking with interval thinking
Within the 2800-4200 range, near the lower boundary to find stop-drop signals, buy on dips; near the upper boundary look for stagnation signals to sell high. The biggest taboo is to change your faith in the middle of a box just because of a single candlestick, or to heavily invest in buying highs and selling lows.
Finally, for small-capital contract players,
All analyses may fail in the face of extreme market conditions. Your advantage isn't accuracy, but flexibility. At the most critical positions, use extremely light positions and extremely narrow stop-losses to test the market. By the way, push protection to let profits slip away; Wrong, turn off the phone and rest.
Only by surviving can you be qualified to talk about the future. $ETH #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 Recently, something quite abstract happened to Hyperliquid:
A crypto perpetual platform, with over half of its transactions already coming from stocks, crude oil, and index $HYPE
RWA weekly turnover: approximately $26 billion
Accounts for about 54% of total transactions
For the first time, it surpassed crypto perpetual
Many people used to talk about RWA, and the image was always like: buying tokenized government bonds; Long-term holding of stock tokens; Collect a bit of stable income on-chain.
In the end, the first to generate volume were the leveraged players 😈, who did not suddenly become long-term value investors
It's just that after the US stock market closes, you can still continue trading stocks, oil, and indices 😂 on-chain
This also shows one thing: for RWA to truly explode, it doesn't have to start with the grand story of "asset on-chain."
Maybe start with a very small need: I want to trade now, but the traditional market has closed, but here you can still trade, 24/7✖️ Not about A-shares
It refers to AI storytelling
Previously, rumors spread in the market that the U.S. would ban open-source AI
Many AI tokens have dropped so much that even their mom doesn't recognize them
I didn't move at the time
Because I think it's unlikely that this will actually happen
Then guess what
The news came out today
Expectations for a U.S. ban on open-source AI have sharply declined
I wasn't wrong before
The potential for open source is enormous
Meta's Llama and Google's Gemma
These models have already taken the global stage
It's not something the government can just ban at will
ETH rose 4.55% today
BTC rose 1.85%
But I think the most noteworthy things aren't Bitcoins and ether
Instead, it is a token related to the AI sector
Those who had previously been suppressed by panic
Now the negative news has been resolved
Funds are very likely to flow back
There's another piece of news worth checking out together
NVIDIA was the first to launch an open letter on open source AI
Jensen Huang personally took the stage
An industry leader at Boss Huang's level
Openly support open source
This is a strong boost for the entire AI + crypto ecosystem
So my judgment is
AI narratives will once again become the main theme in August and September
AI tokens are a pit created by panic
It's the golden pit
Family, don't panic when everyone else is panicking
Looking through today's plate, there are a few interesting points:
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
On its first day of listing, Changxin recorded 130 billion yuan in transaction volume, with a turnover rate of 61%, making it a classic scenario in the storage sector. The Bitcoin whale opened 3.53 million short positions and crossed over to Changxin, indicating that crypto funds are starting to look beyond crypto. If this trend continues, it is positive for cross-market arbitrageurs.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower
The largest geopolitical black swan is fading. When oil prices fall, risk appetite returns; BTC rose 1.85% and ETH rose 4.55% today, both extending this logic. However, Iran intercepted six ships, and the situation has not fully settled down; short-term back-and-forth tug-of-war is the norm.
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
If the CLARITY Act fails to pass before the recess, it means the crypto regulatory framework will have to wait until the next Congress. This suppresses short-term sentiment, but in the long run, crypto regulation will inevitably be implemented. Aave's founder said the bill is in its final stage, and the game is still ongoing.
#AI监管 #美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落