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Changxin's IPO Reshapes the Valuation Benchmark for A-Share Tech Assets
Changxin closed at 49 yuan, with a total market value surpassing 3 trillion yuan, topping the A-share market value rankings and making history in the A-share market.
Congratulations to those who won the new share lottery, with profits exceeding 20,000 yuan per lot.
The Characteristics of the Storage Sector Determine Changxin's Anchored Value
For a long time, many tech stocks have strengthened continuously based on the narrative of domestic substitution. Without heavyweight, solidly profitable core benchmarks as references, valuation boundaries are hard to define. Often, market sentiment fully drives the trend, and the reference value of various valuation indicators weakens continuously.
Storage chips are a crucial sector in the current global AI industry market. The industry inherently has distinct cyclical attributes, with profitability fluctuating significantly according to supply and demand. During downturns, profits are under pressure; during upcycles, profits are rapidly released, a trait shared with many popular tech stocks in the market.
The biggest difference between Changxin and other small-cap stocks is its sufficiently large market capitalization and fundamentals that can be continuously validated.
Whether the market ultimately assigns a 15x or 30x PE, the resulting pricing will become the reference benchmark for the entire hard tech sector.
Two Possible Future Market Evolutions
After the industry benchmark's valuation becomes market-driven, capital will reassess the cost-effectiveness of all high-market-value tech assets.
One path is that bulls continue to buy Changxin, continuously raising the valuation ceiling, allowing the entire sector to maintain relatively high valuation levels;
The other path is that Changxin's valuation remains stable, and those tech stocks without stable profit support and with excessive premiums gradually digest their valuations.
Looking ahead at the tech sector market, the era of pure storytelling has weakened. The price range formed by Changxin is the most direct benchmark to measure the bubble level of the sector.
#ChangxinTech Add up the coins of the top ten $CORE addresses, it's more than the issued amount.$MU
1. Do not rely solely on the single logic of "Changxin listing" to heavily short positions; This is an expected event, and it's easy to see buying expectations and selling for a reversal of facts;
2. Closely monitor the two major watershed supports: 910 (MU) and 1410 (SNDK); If support holds, it means the bearish impact is limited;
3. As the FOMC approached in the early morning, positions were gradually reduced, with news fluctuations taking priority over industry events;
4. Two core indicators for medium- and long-term tracking: (1) Changxin HBM R&D progress; (2) DDR contract price trends, which are the core factors determining Micron's valuation.$AEON led the market today with an astonishing increase of +52.10%, driven primarily by the simultaneous launch on three major exchanges. Bitget Launchpool officially started today at 19:00, with a total prize pool of 1,166,666 AEON tokens, allowing users to participate by staking BGB and AEON. Meanwhile, OKX also officially opened AEON spot trading at 19:00 today; Binance Alpha announced the launch of AEON through an Initial Exchange Offering (IEO). The three major platforms launching on the same day highlights the intense interest in the AI sector. AEON is positioned as a crypto payment infrastructure aimed at AI Agents and real-world commerce. It has been only three months since OKX launched the AI token CHIP, and the rapid launch of AEON demonstrates the exchange's bet on extending the AI narrative from underlying computing power to application layers. The recent launch model, with only a few hours between announcement and market opening, indicates that the project already has clear market-making arrangements, and the exchange aims to quickly capture liquidity. The simultaneous launch on the three major exchanges created a strong "new listing effect," with short-term capital speculation driving AEON to double in value.Key variable for trend failure: Whether high-level consolidation with shrinking volume can be broken by active buying, rather than passively waiting for news to trigger it
If BTC never surpasses 66,000 with increased volume and holds steady, is the current structural rally evolving into a high-level distribution?
On the factual level, on July 26, the market showed typical narrow fluctuations: BTC consolidated near 64,000, with clear resistance at 66,000; ETH is less volatile, and L2 and restaking sectors maintain capital concentration; SOL lacks active buying and has low on-chain activity. Spot BTC ETFs saw slight net outflows, prompting institutions to take a wait-and-see approach in the short term, but exchange inventories remain at low levels. Total market trading volume has shrunk, with existing funds further shrinking toward AI-Agent and ETH ecosystems, and liquidity in weak coins continues to deteriorate.
The structural shift is that the market has shifted from the rebound driven by early July to a phase of stock game lacking new catalysts. Capital behavior is clearly diverging: AI-Agent and ETH ecosystem buying is a structural allocation demand with trend inertia; Meanwhile, SOL and small- and mid-cap coins lack real demand support, only following market fluctuations, and passive allocation funds have already been withdrawn. Short-term speculative funds have clearly converged at high levels, waiting for direction selection.
In terms of pricing, if BTC fails to break through 66,000 with increased volume, shrinking volume at high levels may trigger partial profit-taking, causing the price center to shift downward to the 62,000-63,000 range. ETH is more resistant to declines because funds are concentrated within the ecosystem, but if BTC breaks down, ETH cannot rise independently. AI-Agent, as the strongest narrative currently, has limited adjustments, but if the market remains weak, its premium will also be compressed.
The condition for a bullish path is: BTC forms a shrinking bottom near 64,000, followed by 1-2 high-volume bullish candles breaking through 66,000, and ETF funds turning into net inflows. At this point, you can confirm that the adjustment is complete and the uplink space is opened.
The condition for bearish risk is: after multiple failed tests of 66,000, BTC falls below 63,500 and moves downward on heavy volume, while net ETF outflows expand. At that time, the failure signal is not the price drop itself, but that buying cannot absorb selling pressure, causing the structure to shift from a high-level sideways trend to a downward trend.
The current market is effectively in a phase of "trend continuation but lacking acceleration momentum." The core observation window is a valid break through the 64,000 support and 66,000 resistance, rather than a short-term directional forecast. If 64,000 is effectively breached, the structural advantage accumulated earlier will be weakened, and position exposure should be reassessed.
Risk warning: The longer the volume consolidation continues, the higher the probability of sudden downturns. Attention should be paid to the short-term impact of Middle East geopolitical disturbances on risk appetite.
$BTC $ETH $AI$MU
美光科技 晚间美盘核心逻辑（7.27）
⚠️风险提示：内容仅行情逻辑推演，不构成任何投资建议。存储板块高波动，议息周流动性收紧，严格控制仓位、带好止损。
一、四大核心驱动
1.宏观主线（最高权重：FOMC议息前置窗口）
明日凌晨美联储利率决议，市场主流预期维持利率不变，仍存在约34%加息概率。
美光属于AI周期成长标的，高度敏感于10年期美债收益率：收益率上行压制成长估值；收益率下行，存储板块才有反弹基础。
行情大基调：议息会议前资金普遍观望，很难走出单边趋势，宽幅震荡、双向插针是常态；真正拐点取决于鲍威尔讲话措辞。
2.板块联动逻辑（第二权重）
走势强绑定费城半导体SOX、SNDK闪迪、SK海力士ADR，三者涨跌高度共振。
板块当前核心矛盾：
✅多头逻辑：AI算力持续拉动HBM、服务器DRAM需求；大量长期供货协议（SCA）锁定远期营收；Q3存储合约价继续上行，供需紧张格局延续。
❌空头逻辑：上半年巨大涨幅后筹码松动；市场开始博弈Q4存储涨价斜率放缓、景气阶段性见顶预期；高位获利资金持续兑现。
盘面定性：当前行情属于大跌后的情绪修复反弹，不是新一轮主升浪启动。
3.个股基本面
全球DRAM龙头，HBM核心供应商：
1）海量云厂商长协订单，平滑传统周期波动，中长期基本面支撑；
2）晚间无突发公司公告催化，日内行情完全依靠板块情绪、宏观资金驱动；
3）机构分歧巨大：多头看好AI存储超级周期；空头担忧乐观预期已经充分反映在股价上。
4.资金行为特征
本轮反弹主要依靠空头回补推动，持续性增量买盘不足；
盘面规律：无量冲高极易回落；一旦半导体板块转弱，MU下跌弹性大于绝大多数芯片标的。
二、晚间关键价位（美元）
✅支撑（自上而下）
第一支撑：910（短线多空分水岭），守住维持震荡偏强格局
第二支撑：875（本轮反弹启动平台），有效跌破代表本轮修复行情结束
⛔压力（自下而上）
第一压力：965（日内短期抛压区）
第二压力：990–1000（整数心理关口+密集套牢区）
无量冲击该区间，诱多回落风险偏高。
三、两种情景推演
情景1：震荡偏强（基准情景）
前提：纳指、费城半导体维持强势，MU守住910支撑。
走势：震荡上行试探965；放量站稳965后才有机会挑战1000关口。
重点：反弹必须持续放量，缩量反弹严禁追高。
情景2：冲高回落、震荡下行（风险情景）
前提：冲击965/1000持续承压，美盘风险偏好转冷。
走势：冲高后回落，回踩测试910；放量跌破910，则进一步下探875支撑。
四、晚间重点跟踪指标
1. 费城半导体指数SOX、纳指期货强弱；
2. 对标标的：SNDK闪迪、SK海力士同步联动情况；
3. 成交量：反弹阶段量能是否持续放大；
4. 美债10年期收益率、美元指数实时波动；
5. 临近议息决议，流动性下降，防范盘中快速插针。
五、交易思路总结
行情定性：超跌修复震荡，反弹而非反转，禁止重仓追涨
1. 回踩910附近企稳、板块同步强势，可博弈短多，止损放在900下方；
2. 反弹到达965–1000区间滞涨、量能萎缩，可博弈短空，止损1010上方；
3. 有效跌破910，直接暂停多头思路；
4. 临近凌晨议息决议，后半夜逐步降低仓位，规避消息带来的剧烈波动。The second half of crypto exchanges: The battlefield is no longer just native crypto assets. BitMEX announced its September shutdown, BitMart was phased out, and the veteran players of the perpetual contract era came to an end. This is not just a round of industry clearance, but a clear signal of a major migration in the sector: the next round of competition for crypto platforms has shifted to traditional financial assets, and the US stock sector has become a battleground. The flow of funds has already given the answer. Many traders have not left crypto platforms, but have simply switched their positions from various native coins to US stock assets like MU and NVDA. Data shows that since early 2025, major crypto exchanges have successively launched over 350 real-world asset spot and perpetual contracts, covering stocks, ETFs, and commodities; In May 2026, the monthly turnover of RWA US perpetual markets alone reached $347 billion, with cumulative turnover exceeding $1.32 trillion this year. User demand continues to deepen, and simply acquiring stock price exposure can no longer satisfy traders. A complete toolchain for margin financing, securities lending, and options has become a new rigid demand in the market. The competition in the entire track is clearly divided into two stages: ✅ Stage One: Addressing the issue of "holding US stock exposure" — stock perpetual stocks, CFDs, and early tokenized stocks launching together. Low entry barriers and fast listing, but essentially just tracking prices; traders do not hold real stocks and cannot build a complete hedging strategy, resulting in a natural ceiling. ✅ Phase Two: Connecting the Complete U.S. Stock Trading Chain The core watershed is the direct brokerage model. User ordersKey liquidation points for ALLO (based on current price $0.4067)
1. Concentrated Zone for Long Margin Liquidation (triggered when prices fall)
Price range Liquidation scale explanation
$0.35-0.38 Medium-sized long positions liquidated. Today's key support level. If a break below triggers 17:46, chase long positions higher, and there is a high probability of accelerated decline within 1-6 hours
$0.28-0.32 Large-scale long liquidation. Today's starting point of gains; a break below triggers all daily entry long positions to liquidate, which is the core profit target for bears
$0.18-0.22 Massive long liquidation, 24-hour low, breaking below all long positions triggered since launch + primary market profit-taking sell-off, guaranteed within 1-2 weeks
$0.10-0.15 Epic long liquidation. Average cost line in the primary market, breaking below triggers panic sell-off, likely to be touched within 3-6 months
$0.05-0.10 Ultimate long liquidation. AI new coins have a long-term destination; pure concept coins without fundamental support have a 90% chance of falling to this range after one year
2. Short Liquidation Concentration Zone (triggered when prices rise)
Price range Liquidation scale explanation
$0.44-0.45 Medium-sized short liquidation. After today's peak, the rebound high; a breakout triggers early morning short positions, with a slight short-term rebound
$0.46-0.47 Large-scale short liquidation. Today's all-time high; a breakout triggers all short-entry positions today to be liquidated, and short-term sentiment will heat up again
$0.50-0.55 Massive short liquidation. Market sentiment is at an extremely crazy level, with a breakout triggering a bearish stampede, with only a 5% chance of reaching it within one month
$0.60-0.70 Epic short liquidation. AI new coin speculation ceiling; a breakout indicates major capital control, with only a 1% chance of reaching it within three months
$0.80-$1.00 Ultimate Short Liquidation Price Only appears in extreme bull markets, almost impossible to reach within a year
$BTC $SHIB $PEPE
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
#财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative? #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative? $SNDK
Evening Core Logic (7.27 USD session)
⚠️ Risk warning: This content is only market logic simulation and does not constitute any investment advice. SNDK has extremely high volatility and significant chip fluctuations, so strict position and risk control are required.
1. Four Core Driving Weights
1. Macroeconomic Environment (First Weight)
The super interest rate meeting week pre-window (7.28–29 FOMC), with the market mainstream expecting rates to remain unchanged, but inflation and rate hike expectations remain divergent.
Temporary easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices will ease valuation pressure on growth stocks in the short term; The Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index directly determine the SNDK sentiment bottom.
Pattern: High-valuation AI storage growth stocks are extremely sensitive to US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and rising yields put pressure on them.
2. Sector Linkage Logic (Second Weight)
SNDK is a leading memory chip company, with its performance highly tied to sectors: Micron MU, SK Hynix, SKHY, and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX.
Last Friday, the sector plunged collectively (SNDK plunged 10.79%), and today, there was an oversold rebound before the market opened, indicating a mood recovery rather than the start of a new trend.
Short-term sector conflicts:
✅ Positives: tight NAND supply and demand, sustained growth in demand for enterprise-level AI inference SSDs, and fluctuations in the smoothing cycle of long-term LTA supply agreements;
❌ Negative news: Market divergence intensifies, institutions begin to gamble on NAND prices peaking in Q4; The stock price has surged dramatically this year, with heavy selling pressure to take profits at high levels.
3. Individual stock fundamentals
The world's only independent listed company specializing in pure NAND flash memory, with core highlights:
1) Long-term joint venture wafer fab with Kioxia, ensuring production capacity; Enterprise-grade AI SSDs continue to grow in volume;
2) LTA long-term price-locking orders to reduce cyclical fluctuations is the core long-term logic;
3) Catalyst approaching: Approaching the earnings report window, funds are playing early on performance guidance;
Currently, there are no sudden company announcements; the evening rally relies on capital sentiment and sector drivers, lacking independent positive momentum.
4. Characteristics of capital behavior
After the huge gains in the first half of the year, short-term chips loosened; It is a crowded AI storage trading target.
Characteristics: Rebounds tend to rise with no volume and then pull back; Once the sector weakens, the downside is much more elastic than the overall market.
The pre-market rebound is a bottom-fishing strategy after a sharp drop, and its sustainability needs to be verified by trading volume.
2. Key Evening Price Levels (USD, last Friday's closing price was 1436.56)
✅ support (top-down)
First support: 1410 (short-term watershed), hold and maintain oscillating recovery
Second support: 1375 (this round's pullback to a low level); a valid break below indicates the end of this oversold rebound
⛔ Pressure (bottom-up)
First resistance: 1500 (short-term strong selling pressure zone)
Second resistance: 1560–1580 (dense trapping range)
No volume impacting this range, with a high risk of bullish pullback.
3. Two types of scenario simulation
Scenario 1: Recovery from Shocks (Baseline Scenario)
Premise: The Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor remain relatively strong, Micron and SK Hynix sectors stabilized simultaneously, and SNDK holds support at 1410.
Trend: Fluctuating upward, testing 1500; Only a breakout with increased volume can challenge 1560.
Key point: Rebounds must maintain increased volume; do not chase highs on shrinking volume.
Scenario 2: Surge, pullback, and then weaken again (risk scenario)
Premise: The Nasdaq is under pressure, semiconductor stocks are struggling to surge, and funds are cashing out at high levels to store shares.
Trend: Rebound touches near 1500, stagnant price and pullback; If the price breaks below 1410 on increased volume, it will further test the 1375 support.
4. Key Evening Tracking Indicators
1. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) and Nasdaq futures strength;
2. Peer benchmarking: synchronized synergy between Micron MU and SKHY;
3. Trading volume: Whether volume continues to expand during the rebound phase;
4. 10-year US Treasury yield and fluctuations in the US dollar index;
5. Large institutional order flows during the session—be wary of selling at high levels.
5. Summary of Trading Strategies
Market Characterization: After a sharp drop, oversold recovery and oscillation define a rebound rather than a reversal; heavy positions are strictly prohibited to chase gains
1. If it stabilizes near 1410 and the sector is strong in tandem, short-term long positions can be played, with a stop loss below 1395;
2. Rebound to the 1500–1560 range is stagnant with shrinking volume; short-term positions can be speculated, with stop-loss above 1590;
3. Effectively break below 1410, immediately pause bullish strategy;
4. Volatility increased in the latter half of the Fed meeting, and positions gradually decreased near midnight to avoid the risk of sharp two-way volatility in the decision.Before the main dish even arrived, the seasonings were already flipping over the pan! Huang bet $25 billion to guarantee OpenAI's credit—this isn't buying stocks—it's clearly a fully automatic vacuum low-temperature cooking machine in his own kitchen—producing chips themselves, guaranteeing debts, and letting OpenAI be the chef to lease this $500 billion data center. This thing is bigger than a Michelin three-star kitchen exhaust hood. The largest infrastructure project in the U.S. to date is basically building walls with black truffles and laying caviar on the floor.
These Wall Street folks are now like reckless youths standing at the cutting board, watching Nvidia make "guarantee sauce" for SoftBank's 10GW data power stations. If this guarantee materializes, it would mean Huang is bringing his top-tier GPU (the GB300) straight from TSMC's Arizona factory baking tray into OpenAI's kitchen. But here's the key point: the guarantee explicitly excludes debts related to their own chips—yes, it's like stewing a pot of Buddha Jumps Over the Wall for guests but saying, "I'll eat the abalone myself, you only deserve the soup base." Old Huang's shrewdness rivals that of a master of molecular gastronomy—outwardly charitable, but in reality, he locks the core computing power profits in his own safe.
Looking at the US stock token $XHOOD, the market synergy is like a pot of boiling lobster soup, with spices floating on the surface and hidden flames underneath. Nvidia is running OpenAI's "Kobe steak" on one hand, while also spending $1 billion to invest in Naver—like sprinkling a handful of kimchi into a French dessert, with flavors clashing so much it makes your stomach cramp. Institutions are now like ants on a hot pan, afraid to miss this "AI Manchu-Han feast," but don't forget, the leveraged contract "extra spicy chili" has already been maxed out—whoever speaks first gets the spiciness to the stomach.
Remember, the most advanced kitchen technique isn't about stir-frying over high heat, but about controlling the heat. Huang's move may seem like a lavish throw, but in reality, he splits the risk in half, cutting it as clean and decisive as slicing sashimi. And what about retail investors? Still excited about the small spice slot. #NvidiaBacksOpenAI ETF funds showed a clear signal of direction in July. Last week (July 20–24), Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $104 million, maintaining positive growth for the third consecutive week.
BlackRock ETHA had a weekly net inflow of $96.3 million, with a historical net inflow of $11.41 billion; Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust had a net inflow of $9.93 million. Since July, cumulative Ethereum ETF inflows have reached $338 million, with a positive monthly trend.
The contrast is even more pronounced in the divergence of capital flows. Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks and consistently outpace Bitcoin ETFs in terms of scale. In the same week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $95.5 million. The divergence in price performance and ETF capital flows has created a mutually reinforcing market picture—funds are flowing from Bitcoin ETFs to Ethereum ETFs, representing a structural rotation. The ETF's total net asset value reached $10.17 billion, with a net asset ratio of 4.53% of Ethereum's total market capitalization.
$ETH On-chain data provides clear directional signals on the supply side. Ethereum validator exit queues have been completely cleared—zero ETH are queuing to exit, while over 2.5 million ETH are waiting to stake, with an estimated wait of about 44 days. Nearly 41 million ETH have been staked across the network, with a staking rate of 33.6% of circulating supply, setting a new historical high.
The annualized yield on staking has dropped from 3.05% to 2.62%, and the decline in yield has not stopped funds from entering the market. In the third quarter of last year, the exit queue swelled to 2.6 million coins, with a 45-day wait, as the market worried about concentrated selling. Now the narrative has completely flipped—people are lining up to enter, and almost no one wants to leave. Over 30 million ETH are locked in the PoS network, strengthening ecosystem security while reducing the supply circulating on exchanges.
As supply tightens, exchange reserves are also declining, with more holders moving assets into self-custody wallets and staking contracts. These on-chain indicators are resonating with the price rebound. $ETH The trigger for the market rebound is the marginal easing of geopolitical risks.
On July 24, Trump ordered a halt to strikes against Iran, ending a 13-day streak of airstrikes. Iran and Oman held multiple rounds of consultations on shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry calling the talks "productive" and achieving some progress. Oil prices fell about 5% in response, easing inflation concerns and lowering hawkish market expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting.
But local outflow is also happening. On July 24, BTC and ETH ETFs saw a combined outflow of $310 million. ETH ETFs saw $70.62 million in outflows that day, ending the previous five-day record of $211 million in inflows. Analysts point out that short-term outflows are related to rising U.S. Treasury yields and tech stock sell-offs, rather than deteriorating fundamentals. The gains driven by geopolitical sentiment are being partially offset by cautious sentiment ahead of the Fed meeting. Next, it depends on whether the Fed's policy signals and geopolitical negotiations can sustain progress $ETH The 'Donghak Ant Movement (동학개미운동)' is one of the most interesting phenomena in the Korean stock market in recent years.
With the stock market crash hitting, why aren't Korean retail investors fleeing?
While foreign investors were frantically selling Korean stocks, Korean retail investors—known as 'Ants (개미)'—were buying aggressively in reverse, even launching what the media called the 'Donghak Ant Movement (동학개미운동)'.
The reason is not that they are unafraid of falls, but that several factors exist at once:
(1) Koreans love investing in stocks
South Korea has a population of about 52 million, but the number of securities accounts has long surpassed 100 million.
The reasons include:
One person can open many securities accounts.
Parents will open accounts for their children.
Different brokerages and different uses are managed separately.
Stocks have almost become a universal financial management tool.
So it's normal for the number of accounts to far exceed the population.
(2) The threshold for real estate is too high
Seoul's housing prices have surged for years.
Many young people simply cannot afford to buy a house, so a large amount of capital flows into the stock market, hoping to accumulate assets through investment.
(3) Strong confidence in conglomerate companies
Companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Motor are pillars of South Korea's economy.
Many retail investors believe:
"Foreign investors are selling today, so I'll take advantage of the bargain."
This has led to a nationwide bargain culture.
(4) Dislikes letting foreign investors pick them up at low prices
During the pandemic in 2020,
Foreign investors have sold large amounts of Korean stocks,
Korean retail investors are buying frantically.
The media called this nationwide buy-over movement like:
Donghak Ant Movement
The name borrows from Korea's historical 'Donghak Peasant Movement,' symbolizing the unity of ordinary people against powerful forces.
(5) Extremely high leverage usage among Korean retail investors
Financing culture is very prevalent in Korea.
In addition to margin trading, the market also includes:
Leveraged ETFs
2x、3x ETF
Credit trading
Therefore, every time there is a major drop, the following situations often occur:
Crashes → forced liquidations → panic → greater volatility
Therefore, the volatility of Korean stocks is usually more intense than that of US stocks.
Why does South Korea have over 100 million securities accounts?
It doesn't mean that 100 million people are trading stocks, but rather:
One person can hold multiple brokerage accounts.
Family members (including minors) generally open accounts.
Separate management for long-term investment, retirement, ETFs, and short-term trading.
Competition among Korean brokerages is fierce, and many account opening incentives have also boosted the number of accounts.
Therefore, a population of 52 million with over 100 million securities accounts reflects a culture of mass investment, not population size.
From an investment perspective,
This is also why a unique phenomenon often appears in Korean stocks:
Foreign capital determines medium- to long-term trends.
Korean retail investors are determined to strengthen the short-term rebound.
When foreign capital continues to withdraw, retail investors can temporarily support the market, but if corporate profits or global liquidity do not improve, it will ultimately be difficult to reverse the long-term trend.
So as you mentioned earlier, even if Korean retail investors continue to buy, if foreign investors are still adjusting and valuations are high, the stock price may still undergo a significant correction; Conversely, once foreign capital flows back again, the rebound speed of Korean stocks is often very fast.The July FOMC is indeed hard to predict #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
But what’s really hard to guess might not be whether they raise rates, but how hawkish the Fed’s tone will be
As of July 24, the market expects about a 64.2% chance that rates will remain unchanged, not quite a 50-50 split between a hike and no hike. Earlier oil price increases reignited inflation concerns, which suddenly heated up rate hike expectations
My judgment remains that they will hold steady
It’s too early to cut rates now. Inflation hasn’t been fully subdued yet; even a slight signal of easing could cause prices to rise again
Directly raising rates isn’t that easy either. Current rates are already between 3.50%—3.75%, inflation has cooled recently, and the Fed doesn’t need to risk further economic and employment cooling just to show toughness
So this time it’s more likely rates stay put with a hawkish tone: continuing to monitor inflation while keeping the possibility of future hikes on the table
With high rates maintained, it’s hard for the market to see all assets rise together. Capital will become more selective, continuing to cluster around companies with strong cash flow, stable profits, and those that can truly profit in the AI capital expenditure cycle
The big bull market hasn’t disappeared, but a true broad rally still awaits liquidity to return. What’s needed now isn’t boldness, but patience $BTC $CL On the weekend of July 25 to 26, SHIB staged a truly regional speculative rally.
From Saturday night to Sunday night, the price rose in two waves, with a cumulative increase of about 36%, pushing from the $0.0000042 range all the way to $0.0000058, the highest level in nearly two months.
Market capitalization rose to about $3.4 billion, with daily trading volume surging to about $380 million, with some sources reporting volume growth as high as 1200%.
The most noteworthy aspect of this rally is that it has no new product announcements, collaborations, or clear progress to support it.
The SHIB/KRW pair contributes more than one-tenth of global trading volume, with a turnover of approximately $62 million to $69 million, making it the largest single SHIB market globally, with trading prices slightly higher than other platforms.
South Korean retail investors have long been known for creating similar explosive rallies in highly volatile tokens.
Meanwhile, a whale wallet that had been inactive for the past six months was reactivated, buying 30 billion SHIB for $125,000.
Token burn activity exploded by over 3200% within 24 hours, with about $6 million in short positions liquidated.
However, the daily RSI has reached extremely high levels, with volatility rising significantly.
The biggest risk of sudden rallies driven by regional factors and whales lies in liquidity being highly tied to the enthusiasm of traders in a single country—regulatory changes or shifts in local sentiment in the Korean market could reverse positions faster than global fundamentals suggest.
This rebound is not built on clear fundamental catalysts, but rather stems from concentrated regional trading volume and whale activity.
If you're considering chasing in now, you need to ask yourself one question—if the enthusiasm of Korean retail investors suddenly cools, who will take over?
$SHIB On July 15, SHIB holders withdrew 1.5 trillion tokens from exchanges, pushing the exchange's reserves to a historic low of 86.69 trillion SHIB. On July 15 alone, 174.8 billion SHIB flowed out of exchanges, making it one of the largest single-day withdrawals in SHIB's history.
This withdrawal occurred at a time when SHIB was trading at $0.00000417, down 95% from its 2021 high and close to the all-time low of $0.00000402 set in June. In June, SHIB lost about a quarter of its market value, and the entire meme coin sector saw its market value shrink by one-third.
However, whether the supply tightening caused by exchange withdrawals can support prices remains a matter of structural resistance. With 589.2 trillion tokens in circulation, even the most aggressive burns can only remove a tiny fraction of the supply—the best burn day at the end of June burns only about 4 million tokens, less than one millionth of the circulating supply.
The total number of holders reached a record 1,676,535, with nearly 75,000 new wallets added on July 5th and 6th alone. But the increase in holders and the decline in exchange reserves are happening simultaneously—more people are holding, more are withdrawing tokens from exchanges.
For SHIB, the real test is—when the price itself is worthless, how long can the number of holders keep growing? When a coin drops 95% from its 2021 peak, most people are holding the line not because they believe it will rise again, but because they have lost so much that they cannot sell. A drop in exchange reserves means some are buying, but a 95% drop means there aren't enough buyers yet. $SHIB #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
As the interest rate meeting approaches, whether Bitcoin will continue its volatile upward trend or stop and turn downward, I believe the latter is more likely. The decline in CPI and PPI does not mean the start of easing; inflation is still some distance from the 2% target. The unpredictable Iran-US conflict will further delay the rate cut cycle. Market liquidity remains in a state of exhaustion. The current volatile upward movement is not a trend reversal, and this rebound since bottoming at 1500 has lasted about a month. Unless the meeting releases a clearly dovish signal, shorting on rallies will have a better cost-performance ratio. The latest disclosed data reveals a shocking fact—since 2020, a mysterious SHIB whale cluster has continuously held about 103 trillion SHIB, with initial positions costing only 38 ETH (about $10,000 at the time), and peak unrealized gains once exceeding $50 billion.
In 2021, this whale diversified its assets across 14 addresses to reduce exposure risk. When Bubblemaps first disclosed in 2023, it controlled about 10% of SHIB's supply, valued at over $10 billion. As of now, the cluster still controls about 8.51% of SHIB's circulating supply, with the number of wallets expanding to over 170 addresses. Bubblemaps stated that this mainly comes from normal on-chain transfers, with no large-scale sell-offs observed.
This case reveals an easily overlooked truth about the crypto market—an entity can hide large holdings by splitting wallets, but all fund transfers leave public on-chain records. With the help of the Magic Nodes tool, Bubblemaps can still identify the relationships between these wallets.
One address, unchanged for five years, 103 trillion tokens, with a maximum floating profit of $50 billion. So far, this whale has not made large-scale shipments. But can you expect the market to never remain vigilant about this? If this whale's holding logic changes, no retail investor can withstand SHIB's circulating supply. This cluster currently controls 8.51% of supply, and any normal batch shipment could have a huge impact on prices. Between on-chain transparency and personal holding privacy, SHIB's large player structure may be the market's most silent risk. $SHIB Short-term trading is a game of probability; to some extent, both ultra-long and ultra-short are not easily affected by market news
Optimizing the trading system from both probability and capital management perspectives makes it easier to achieve stable trading
A trading system is a product that measures what constitutes "wrong profit" and what constitutes "correct loss"~Shibarium, the Layer 2 network of the SHIB ecosystem, is undergoing a long period of silence.
The network once reached $11 million in TVL, but as the NFT market crashed, on-chain activity cooled sharply.
According to the latest data from DeFiLlama, Shibarium's TVL is only $81,390, with almost no on-chain fees.
Shibarium Scan data shows that for most of July, daily transaction volumes were less than 1,000.
Average block time is 5.1 seconds—technically fine, but demand is extremely limited.
Shibarium developer Mazrael invited developers to return to the Puppynet testnet to build applications, supporting long-term L2 scaling, token burning, and ecosystem tools.
But the word "invitation" itself is problematic—if a network is truly running healthily, developers will come in person without needing to personally call for help.
SHIB was once one of the most successful meme coins, rising from an initial $10,000 investment in 2020 to a market cap of tens of billions of dollars.
But Shibarium's downturn shows that the path from a "meme coin" to an "asset supported by an ecosystem" is far harder than the market expected.
The era of meme coins relies on narrative and emotion; the ecosystem era requires real users and real needs. The former can erupt overnight, while the latter takes years to accumulate. If Shibarium fails to take off, SHIB's long-term value ceiling will be firmly sealed. A Layer 2 network with only $80,000 in TVL cannot support the long-term narrative of a $3.4 billion token. $SHIB Recently, market funds have been actively digging into long-standing old coins that have been lying at the bottom, and many forgotten first-generation public chains have begun to rebound. DGB (DigiByte) recently rebounded from the bottom of 0.002350, surging over 15% in a single day and marking a strong recovery. Many newcomers are unfamiliar with this project. Today, we will break down its background, the logic behind this round of gains, and the subsequent catalysts. Project Background: DGB stands for DigiByte, a well-established decentralized UTXO public chain launched in 2014, belonging to the same technical route as Bitcoin. Its biggest feature: no ICO or pre-mining, making it a community-driven, long-established blockchain project. Block speed is about 15 seconds, transfers are faster than Bitcoin, and it focuses on secure and small-amount fast payment scenarios. In recent years, market hotspots have shifted constantly, with AI, RWA, and new meme coins capturing the vast majority of traffic. This old token chain has long been neglected by the market, with prices remaining bearish and in a deeply oversold state, making it a typical "niche ancient coin." Current market status: From the daily chart, it is clear that after the previous low point reached 0.002350, the bearish momentum was basically released. Recently, it has risen with increased volume, with a current price of 0.00396 and a 24-hour high of 0.0042. The price has risen above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, with the short-term moving averages turning upward; The KDJ indicator has entered an upward range, the MACD red bars continue to expand, and short-term bullish momentum is strengthening. The 24-hour turnover volume is relatively small, which is a game of existing capital, and currently has noneMomentum is trying to return after a sharp rejection from the recent high on the 1H chart. $XAAPL /USDT is showing signs of stabilization, with buyers stepping back in after the pullback.
Price is currently trading around 334.70, holding above the recent low near 332.97 while remaining below the session high of 338.90. The latest candles suggest buyers are attempting to rebuild short-term momentum.
A move above the recent recovery area could strengthen bullish sentiment. However, failure to hold current levels may invite another test of lower support before the trend becomes clearer.
Is this the beginning of a fresh recovery, or just a temporary bounce before another move lower?
#OKXTraderVoices Global digital asset management firm Grayscale recently released an unconventional study, with the title itself a judgment—"Solana: Crypto's Financial Bazaar." Instead of repeating old tricks to hype up transaction volumes per second or historically low fees, they redefined Solana as a relentless crypto financial marketplace. In this digital city, developers build houses, users buy and sell, and funds and information shuttle around the clock like traffic. The density of economic activity, rather than the limits of technical parameters, has become the measure of value. This narrative twist did not come suddenly. The competitive rules of the public blockchain world have quietly shifted. A few years ago, everyone was competing on how fast block production could and how low gas fees were, as if whoever entered the "second-level confirmation" track first could take everything up. But the rapid convergence of infrastructure makes it difficult to build a true moat for performance itself. Grayscale bluntly stated in its report: what determines a chain's long-term value is no longer how fast it can run, but how much real business happens on it. How many live users flood in daily, how many transactions accumulate, how much real income is generated, and whether new applications can be continuously incubated—the metrics institutions are asking about have completely shifted toward business operation capability, much like the turning point where the internet evolved from competing over bandwidth servers to competing in user scale and cash flow. Following this logic, the report didn't waste time reiterating how powerful Solana's underlying protocol is, but instead directly dissected it$SHIB burn data surged to a six-month high in July.
On July 8, the community burned over 117 million SHIB, with Robinhood-linked wallets burning over 109 million in a single transaction.
Within one week, the total amount of burned coins reached 152 million. The 24-hour burn rate once soared by 131%, with weekly burns reaching 45.44 million coins.
But prices barely moved. The 117 million tokens burned occurred in front of a total supply of 589 trillion coins. Even if it continues at the pace of July 8 for a whole year, it will only reduce supply by a tiny fraction.
The key issue lies on the demand side. Historical data shows that the rise in meme coins mainly reflects a rebound in retail investor interest, not just changes in supply mechanisms. When demand does not increase in tandem, any supply-side effort is diluted. In May 2021, Vitalik Buterin burned 410.24 trillion SHIB in one go, which still accounts for nearly all the tokens destroyed in history. The 41.08% of the community's accumulated destruction over the years was still just a fraction compared to that single-day event.
On July 7, SHIB formed a "death cross." On July 14, its market capitalization dropped out of the top 30 cryptocurrencies. In June, the total market capitalization of meme coins fell by 33%, marking the worst monthly decline of 2026. In the second week of July, SHIB's price continued to fluctuate narrowly around $0.0000041.$SHIB On July 27, the SHIB team stated on X, "OG culture has never left, and neither has SHIB."
Crypto commentator David Gokhshtein responded that SHIB's performance over the past two days has made him more optimistic, and that the OG spirit is returning to the entire meme coin sector.
SHIB is working hard to shed the label of a "pure meme coin." The Shibarium Layer2 network has been the team's most significant infrastructure investment in recent years. Currently, the total value locked on Shibarium has rebounded to $115 million, a weekly increase of about 7%, the highest since March. But compared to Ethereum's mainnet's TVL of over $50 billion, it's still insignificant.
On July 28, SHIB's spot price was $0.00000421, with its market capitalization dropping to $2.56 billion. CoinCodex's year-end target price is about $0.0000034, which still leaves about 18% downside from the current price. CoinPriceForecast's year-end target price is $0.00000593, which requires broader support from altcoin cycles to achieve. Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have a combined market capitalization of about $13.27 billion, having fallen back to a nearly three-year low.
SHIB's fundamentals are shifting from a "pure meme coin" to a "meme coin backed by an ecosystem." But with a total supply of 589 trillion coins, slow burn rates, and sluggish market sentiment—these structural issues remain. The short-term rebound is driven by sentiment and capital, while long-term value depends on whether the Shibarium ecosystem can truly get on track. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
Hyperliquid faces a major test of $415 million in mortgage release: nearly $200 million in selling pressure peaked on July 30—is it a whale shakeout or a reversal to take over?
Just saw Onchain Lens's on-chain warning data: within the next 7 days, 6.93 million $HYPE will be centrally unstaked on Hyperliquid, totaling about $415 million. Even more alarming, on July 30 alone, 3.3 million HYPE tokens were released from the pool, with a single-day outflow value reaching $198 million.
After the news broke, several DEX derivatives trading groups were asking: Is HYPE about to crash?
To be honest, as a trader who checks liquidity depth on-chain every day, my answer is clear: unstaking does not mean 100% immediate market price crash, but in the current extremely fragile market environment, a potential chip impact of nearly $200 million in a single day is enough to become a powerful weapon for major players to use this as a pretext to wash their leverage downward.
Here are three logics to break down my judgment and response approach:
First, unlocking the pledge does not mean selling off, but the shift from "dormant" to "flowing" is itself a pressure.
Of these 6.93 million HYPE, a portion is definitely routine fund allocation and restaking by validator nodes or institutional whales. But from a game perspective, HYPE in staking status is a "dormant chip" locked in liquidity; once unstaked, it can be sold at market price or transferred to CEX/DEX for withdrawal. Given the already weak overall market buying pressure, market makers find it difficult to absorb $200 million in spot selling pressure without a crash.
Second, funds won't wait until July 30 to move; they often "preempt the game early."
Based on historical experiences with large unlocks or concentrated unstaking of tokens like TIA and Arbitrum, short positions in the derivatives market never wait until the day of unstaking to act. They usually open short positions or hedge to lock in profits 1-2 days in advance (i.e., July 28-29). This kind of "anticipation inducement" easily triggers short-term bullish stampedes, causing prices to dip before the unpledge point arrives.
Third, July 30 is not only the peak unstaking period, but also a macro-sensitive period for super weeks.
July 30 coincided precisely with the eve of the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision. Macroeconomic tightening sentiment combined with a single-day $198 million unstaking peak will inevitably amplify HYPE's volatility to its limit.
Trading responses and strategies:
For those holding spot stock, there's no need to rush to cut losses just because of a release announcement, but in the short term, absolutely avoid blindly taking on the flying knife before July 30; For those trading derivatives contracts, it is strongly recommended to reduce HYPE's long leverage within the next 72 hours to guard against the "two-way explosive leverage" tactic where the main player uses uncollateral expectations to lure long positions upward and then fall deep.
Only after the July 30 wave of 3.3 million HYPE is realized and on-chain selling pressure is truly digested by the market will the right-side support shown become a truly safe place to add positions.
Do you hold HYPE? Facing the nearly $200 million single-day release test on July 30, are you ready to hedge spot assets or buy the dip? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.7月25日挖矿难度下调0.74%至118.28T，这是今年第15次调整。
算力从7月初的986 EH/s峰值持续回落至目前的903-948 EH/s区间，已经连续数周走低。
矿工钱包余额在同步变化。7月27日矿工钱包余额降至119.3万枚BTC，比7月初的123.5万枚下降了大约3.4%。不是一次性的短时抛售，而是一种持续性的减仓行为。日均抛售量大约在3,000到4,500枚BTC之间，处于温和但持续的状态。
两个指标同时在往下走——算力和余额都在降。算力价格在持续下跌，这意味着矿工每挖出一枚BTC所获得的收入正在减少。一些效率较低的矿工可能正在逐步缩减运营规模。但高效的矿工仍然在继续持有。
减半之后，矿工每日新增BTC供应只有450枚左右。即便当前矿工处于减仓状态，其日均抛售量也只有约3,000到4,500枚BTC，大约相当于ETF日均买入量的六到九倍。
$BTC On July 27, online activity was generally weak.
Data shows that Bitcoin network transfer volume has dropped by about 27% from its peak in early July, with daily transactions ranging from roughly 55,000 to 60,000 transactions.
Trading volume is shrinking, indicating that market activity is indeed declining.
However, the number of new on-chain addresses has recently seen a slight rebound, rising from about 350,000 per day in previous weeks to around 380,000.
The volume of transfers is declining, but new addresses are increasing, indicating that new users are entering but not trading.
The total number of active addresses matches the trend of transfer volume, remaining between 700,000 and 720,000, down from over 800,000 in early July.
Online activity is cooling down, and the overall market is waiting. This simultaneous contraction in hash rate and trading volume is very similar to the period from June to July 2022—when BTC hovered around $20,000 for about two months, and the market entered a state of "no one buys or sells."
$ETH $BTC On July 27, the average daily transfer volume of USDT and USDC on the two mainstream chains, Ethereum and TRON, dropped by about 16% compared to early July.
On-chain activity is cooling down, consistent with the overall downward trend in network transaction volume.
However, the total stablecoin supply has increased by about 4% in a net increase over the past month—the excess supply has not entered the market.
Stablecoin transfers are declining, but supply is increasing, indicating that funds are indeed watching from the sidelines.
USDC supply on Ethereum grew by about 2.1%, and USDT supply on TRON increased by about 4.3%. More people are holding stablecoins, but fewer are trading with them. Before the FOMC, no one was willing to make the first move.
$ETH $BTC $ZRO What is the next step for the dog farm?
Short-term (pre-FOMC): Prices are likely to fluctuate within the 0.765-0.88 range. The July 29 FOMC meeting is the biggest variable. The market expects rates to remain unchanged, but once the hawkish stance is tilted, high-beta counterfeit ZRO will fall harder than anyone else. Technically, ZRO needs to break through the $2.28 resistance level to confirm a larger level of bullish structure—there is still some short-term way to go.
The last two FOMC scenarios:
· Scenario 1 (dovish / rate maintained): ZRO may break through 0.85-0.88, targeting 0.96-1.00.
· Scenario 2 (Hawkish bias / rising rate hike expectations): ZRO is very likely to fall below 0.765, or even 0.70.
Mid-term: The biggest variable is whether the Zero chain can truly be implemented. If the collaboration between DTCC, ICE, and Google Cloud yields tangible results, ZRO may see a value reassessment. But on July 20, just after unlocking 25.71 million ZRO, the team/investor address transferred 3.51 million unlocked tokens to Binance—the chips held by Gouzhuang were enough to drive the price through several times.
The final heartfelt words:
ZRO rose 9% today, whales bought up $47.5 million, Zero Chain narrative, institutional entries—good news piled up. However, the funding rate is high at 0.0191%, 25.71 million tokens were just unlocked on July 20, and Dog Farm could dump the market at any time. At 0.819, bulls fear sell-offs, bears fear the dog dealers continuing to rally. For those chasing the highs now, think about whether you can withstand the sudden 15% drop from the dog farm. Hold your hands, wait for the reversal to confirm, wait for the FOMC boots to land, and wait until the direction is clear before acting. Remember, staying long in crypto is ten thousand times more important than making a lot of money! Meeting adjourned! $BTC $BTC Money Flow Index Signals Another Bear Market Phase… But History Suggests This Is Not The End. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is once again tracing a pattern that closely resembles the major correction cycles of 2014, 2018, and 2022. Every previous cycle followed a remarkably consistent sequence: a euphoric market top, an aggressive first capitulation, a deceptive relief rally, a deeper liquidity sweep, and finally a long term accumulation bottom before the next expansion phase. The currenLast week on Google's earnings night, I wrote: Capital expenditure guidance is the decisive factor in this earnings season. Alphabet's revenue and profit both exceeded expectations but still fell 4% after hours. Tesla experienced its largest weekly drop since 2022 — the market has already spoken with real money: AI investment anxiety has escalated from a "question" to a "pricing factor." Now, the judgment day has come for Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon.
The uniqueness of these three companies lies in that they are the three pillars of the AI narrative, each carrying a part. Microsoft carries "AI commercialization" (the monetization rate of Copilot and Azure AI is the only verified path); Meta carries "investment for returns" (whether AI gains in advertising can cover massive capital expenditures); Amazon carries "cloud growth" (AWS is the barometer for AI infrastructure demand). If any one of their guidance slows down, it is not just a stock issue but a narrative collapse.
What really needs to be watched is not revenue or profit — exceeding expectations is already consensus — but two numbers: the month-over-month change in capital expenditure and cloud business growth. If spending continues to rise but cloud growth slows, it’s a replay of Google's script; if spending rises and cloud accelerates, anxiety will be temporarily relieved.
My inclination: this round of anxiety will not subside because the payback period issue has no answer, only more bills. Volatility is certain, direction is rented.
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ This week is a rare "four-line resonance": the FOMC early Thursday morning, Microsoft/Meta/Amazon earnings on Wednesday and Thursday, the fifth round of $900 million compensation from FTX on July 31, plus oil prices sharply falling due to ceasefire expectations. Each of these alone would be enough for the market to price for a week, and now they are all squeezed into the same window.
Focusing on the oil price line, because it’s what I’ve been tracking: a few weeks ago I said "$100 oil prices would eat up rate cut space," now the ceasefire expectations have caused oil prices to quickly fall, easing the energy component pressure on inflation — this effectively returns part of the rate cut expectations that were held hostage by oil prices. Coupled with initial jobless claims at 187,000, below expectations, the labor market is resilient but not overheated, so the Fed’s script is much more comfortable than two weeks ago.
But pay attention to the pricing rhythm: Bitcoin has returned to 65,000, and the Fear & Greed Index is back to the monthly high of 30, indicating the market has already front-run the "dovish script." This plants an asymmetric risk — if expectations are met, the good news is fully priced in, and any hawkish remarks will be amplified. At 2:00 AM early Thursday, the real variable is not whether to cut rates, but how the statement and press conference characterize the "energy inflation fluctuations."
The earnings line is similar: capital expenditure guidance will determine the tech stocks’ script for the second half of the year, which I mentioned a few weeks ago, so I won’t repeat it.
My strategy: no leverage before events, no moves in spot, wait for volatility to settle before deciding direction. The secret to making money during meeting weeks has never been prediction, but surviving through the meeting week.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Oil prices plunged 7% overnight, BTC returned to 65,000: the market is always front-running
After 13 consecutive days of U.S. bombing of Iran, the U.S. military suddenly stopped.
Then, within minutes of opening, international oil prices plummeted by more than 7%, briefly dropping below $90. Brent crude oil jumped from last week's $100 mark to near $91.
7%, a few minutes, gone.
Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures opened 1.4% higher, Bitcoin climbed back above $65,000, gold rose nearly 1%, and silver gained more than 2%.
Last week, the market was still trading a scenario of "oil prices breaking 100, uncontrolled inflation, and Fed rate hikes." Brent crude rose more than 25% in a month. Everyone is shouting: high oil prices are coming, interest rates are rising, risk assets are doomed.
Then the US troops stopped for two days.
Then oil prices crashed by 7%.
Then all the risk assets came back.
Is this 75% probability of a ceasefire pricing in the future, or is it gambling with its life?
The market has already priced in a "ceasefire agreement before the end of August" at 75%. It was almost like saying, "This matter is settled."
But if you look closely—Iran says "doubt outweighs optimism," believing the U.S. ceasefire is merely a tactical adjustment. Yemen's Houthi forces are still attacking Saudi oil tankers. Fewer than 10 merchant ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
Cease fire? The Eight Characters hadn't even been completed yet.
But the market has already run ahead as a sign of respect.
We are all too familiar with this script.
Isn't this just "prices soaring before the news even lands"? Isn't it just "once expectations are maxed out, all the good news is negative"?
Last week, when oil prices broke 100, everyone panicked and sold BTC. Oil prices just dropped 7% this week, and BTC returned to 65,000.
Market pricing has never been reality; it is people's imagination of reality.
And imagining this thing becomes faster than flipping through a book.
Last week, they were trading "Inflation Doomsday," and this week they started trading "peace dividends." The same Middle East, the same Iran, the same group of traders—within seven days, the script was rewritten twice.
When you're struggling with whether to chase the highs, think about this morning's oil prices—
7%, a few minutes.
How many such fluctuations can your position withstand?
Don't let news lead you by the nose.
The ceasefire agreement hasn't been signed yet, Hormuz is still blocking, and Iran is still suspicious. Market front-running doesn't mean the finish line is really near.On its first day of listing, Changxin's market value reached ¥3.31 trillion, directly topping the A-share market value rankings. This number itself is a vote in the pricing system.
Connecting the timeline makes it even more interesting: last week, Anthropic signed long-term supply and strategic investment agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix, NVIDIA invested $1 billion in Naver, and AI orders concentrated toward the two Korean giants; this week, Changxin landed on the STAR Market, marking China's DRAM capacity officially entering the global competitive pricing coordinates. The narrative in the storage industry is shifting from "two giants" to "three parties."
But breaking it down rationally: what Changxin truly changes is not the current supply pattern, but the future expansion variable. DRAM is a typical high-capital expenditure, strongly cyclical industry, with contract prices determined by supply and demand margins. The pricing power of the two giants comes from capacity discipline, but if Changxin's expansion pace prioritizes market share over profit, the global DRAM contract price cycle fluctuations will be amplified—price increases cannot be restrained during upcycles, nor can the bottom be supported during downcycles. This is exactly why companies like Anthropic are eager to lock in long-term contracts: AI companies understand better than anyone that storage will be scarce over the next three years.
The observation coordinate remains unchanged: DRAM contract prices and each company's expansion pace. The story is very attractive, but the valuation of cyclical industries ultimately returns to the price curve.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 Today, the entire crypto market saw a full-scale rotation of small-cap altcoins in the crypto world. $BEAT experienced a steep 15-minute rapid rally during the day, surging from a low of $3.39 all the way up to $4.2655, a single-day increase of 12.22%, before slightly pulling back to fluctuate around $4.03. Its strength is clearly felt from the cyclical data: the 180-day gain reached 1466.08%, with 30-day and 7-day gains also surpassing 60%, standing out among many coins that followed the trend and rebounding. Many traders who saw the steep candlestick believed this coin had made a complete reversal and were eager to chase the rally to enter. Combining recent publicly available project updates, overall capital flows, and chip market data, we break down the complete logic behind this sudden surge and clarify the core characteristics of this coin itself. I. Reference for Real Events Corresponding to This Sudden Surge 1. Overall market sentiment holds the bottom, while small-cap speculative funds concentrate their speculative efforts. This week, after Ethereum $ETH surged above $1940, the market completely shaken off the fear of a prolonged decline. Funds spilled out of mainstream coins, triggering a top-down counterfeit rotation market. Small coins collectively rose across the network's contract leaderboards, and BEAT itself had already completed a long period of sideways consolidation, becoming a picked upward target by speculative capital. 2. Recently, the project community launched an ecosystem incentive campaign to generate short-term narrative buzz. Looking through overseas official community updates, the $BEAT team just launched a short-term on-chain task mining event on July 26, offering small amounts to ordinary users$ALLO 盘面有个特点
合约交易占比不低
一旦持续性走弱，容易接连触发杠杆爆仓，进一步放大下跌幅度
而且现在AI赛道资金开始分流，热点热度降温
单纯依靠故事支撑的币种，资金会优先选择兑现跑路
项目目前缺少能够扭转局势的重磅利好$DGB Why did it surge today—DigiDollar narrative is nuclear power!
Bro, today's DGB surge isn't just a technical breakthrough, but a narrative-driven one:
First, DigiDollar is the biggest catalyst. DigiDollar is a decentralized stablecoin system built directly on DigiByte's Layer 1 network—users lock DGB to mint DigiDollar. Lock-up means deflation; DGB is removed from circulation, creating natural scarcity. Although it was activated on July 17, the market's absorption of this narrative is far from over. On July 10, the community celebrated reaching the activation threshold, and this wave of enthusiasm has continued from that time.
Second, overall risk appetite is rebounding. Mainstream coins like XRP led the way in strength, with funds rotating to established and highly liquid altcoins. DGB, as a well-established PoW public chain launched in 2014, was naturally chosen in the "old coin catch-up" rally.
Third, whales and speculative funds are igniting the fire. Some analysts directly pointed out that DGB is one of the "Four Wild Old Manipulator Coins," with high chip concentration, market trends dominated by speculative investors, and the normal pattern is long-term sideways trading, with capital entering the market and then exiting a pulse rally. DGB remains out of the public eye, but the sudden surge in 278 million+ transaction volumes may be a sign of a "giant."
Retail investors are hyping up the "DigiDollar deflation narrative," while dog dealers are taking the opportunity to push up and sell off—the expectation gap is just that big!Next week is, in my opinion, the most important week of 2026.
Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all posted their Q2 reports in concentrated succession. The real highlight isn't EPS, but the guiding wording for capital expenditures for the second half of the year and even 2027—whether to continue "ramping up" or starting to use terms like "optimization," "pace," and "digestion." Following the quarterly reports from SK Hynix, Samsung, and Kioxia, the supply side will cross-verify the same thing: are HBM and NAND orders still rising?
The pricing power of the AI sector will be redistributed once this week. And the crypto market is essentially a shadow of the Nasdaq's high beta.
Three ways to walk:
1. Capital expenditure revised upward + Storage chain exceeded expectations
Risk appetite resonates. BTC followed the rally but was weaker than the Nasdaq, with funds spilling over, and altcoins and AI concept coins amplifying their performance. In this case, the money is on the Beta side, not in BTC.
2. Guidance shifts toward "efficiency" and "prudence"
The most uncomfortable one. Once the AI narrative is questioned, crypto will not strengthen on its own; it will fall faster and deeper than the Nasdaq, with leveraged bulls being the first to be cleared out.
3. Large companies increase their holdings, but storage gross margin guidance remains soft
Divergent market trends. When the index moves sideways, crypto probably first makes a two-way insertion to wash away both levers, then chooses the direction.
My approach: Reduce leverage before earnings week, no direction prediction. In this kind of week, living until the results come out is more important than guessing the right direction.Tether's gold token XAUT has obtained Sharia certification, opening up the Middle East and global Muslim markets
#Tether #XAUT #Amanah Advisors$LABLAB Go long and stop loss for review
Trade: Long LAB 70 shares × 10x leverage
Entry price: $0.1539
Entry price: $0.1468
Profit/Loss: -$5.37 (-53.7%)
Principal: 10U pullback to 4.63U
Summary of Failures:
1. No take-profit at the target — early morning highest floating profit +$2 (+18%), no exit
2. Hesitation in stop-loss execution — Set the $0.1500 defensive line and did not act immediately after it broke
3. Opening positions on high prices — buying in the pullback zone after the rally, not the starting point of the trend
Lesson: 10x leverage has extremely low margin for error; if you don't leave at the price price = no strategy.
Adjustment direction: Reduce leverage + half-position operations, strictly follow the rules of take-profit and stop-loss.
Target unchanged: 10u compound interest to 1000u.Foreign investors are betting with real money: net purchases of $909 billion in U.S. stocks over the past 12 months, setting a new record. In May alone this year, overseas investors bought $134 billion worth of U.S. stocks. At the same time, they also reduced their holdings of $43.5 billion in short-term U.S. Treasuries. This set of data is quite interesting. Global funds are not simply "safe-haven Americans" but are actively selling some low-risk assets to chase AI giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, $META, and OpenAI. The core of U.S. capital attraction has gradually shifted from high interest rates to AI profits and tech assets. But foreign capital influx has another side. $900 billion seems extremely exaggerated, accounting for about 1.3% of the total market value when placed in the massive U.S. stock market. It is enough to drive the index but struggles to support the valuations of all AI companies on its own. Funds will ultimately concentrate in a few companies that can convert capital expenditures into revenue and cash flow, making marginal assets that ride on the AI concept more likely to be abandoned. Currently, the scale of U.S. stocks held by overseas investors has reached about $23 trillion. If the Fed turns hawkish and the dollar weakens rapidly, or if AI earnings continue to fall short of expectations, foreign investors will not only stop buying, but may also combine currency losses with falling stock prices. The same goes for crypto. U.S. tech assets, $BTC, and $ETH are all competing for global venture capital. Foreign capital continues to flow in, benefiting both U.S. tech stocks and the crypto market; Once this capital chain reverses, overvalued assets will find it hard to remain unaffected. The biggest bull in this round of market movement wasn't American retail investors, butWake up, wake up, wake up,
$CORE Continuous decline, relying on big band to "endorse" stability, hiding six major deadly crises, all exposed
1. Token selling pressure with bottomless pit risk (the most critical minefield)
1. The team and the Treasury jointly control 700 million zero-cost tokens. 2026 marks a 36-month peak unlocking period, with tens of millions continuously pouring into the market each month. Supply always crushes buyers; bearish declines are the main theme in the long term. Any rebound catalyzed by positive news is essentially an opportunity to attract bullish sell-offs.
2. Treasury tokens have long been mass-used as collateral for borrowing stablecoins, and will inevitably face phased sell-offs to repay debts; The original gas burn mechanism has been abolished, all fees go into the foundation's pockets, and the circulating board will only continue to expand, completely losing the deflationary bottom.
3. The promised buyback promises promoted by Bitcoin have completely failed. SatPay generates no commercial revenue, there are no ongoing buyback orders on-chain, and there is no mechanism to offset the selling pressure from massive unlocks. The price center will keep shifting downward and continuously hitting bottoms.
2. Quantitative control and liquidity depletion risk
1. The order book has long maintained fixed equal quantitative backlash volume, creating false prosperity and extremely scarce real buying orders. "Stagnation on high volume, sharp drops on shrinking volume" are commonplace, with all upside space being forcefully suppressed, and there is no real trend reversal.
2. Liquidity gap risks: Deeply trapped stocks only dare to test the bottom with small attempts, while off-exchange funds collectively watch and avoid risks. If project teams slow down their market-making efforts, sharp drops and slippage can easily spiral out of control, making it impossible to sell even if you want to cut losses.
3. Deep staking and lock-up schemes: B14G and node staking induce retail investors to lock their chips, resulting in only project side selling in the secondary market; Daily additional CORE issuance through staking causes persistent inflation, further diluting the value of the position. Even if the token price halves during the lock-up period, it is impossible to reduce the position and hedge accordingly.
3. Risks of hollowing out the ecosystem and failed narrative promises
1. The so-called 'big pie' marketing is just reheating old topics: Bitcoin Grid is just a rebranding of its own product line, not a major external collaboration; SatPay, BTC payment, and institutional asset management have all been delayed, remaining only in the reservation beta stage, with no real merchants, no transaction fee cash flow, and no ecosystem profitability.
2. BTCFi competitors (Stacks, Babylon) lead in technology and institutional resources, while CORE lacks exclusive core barriers, causing continuous capital diverting and making it extremely difficult to attract real users and incremental capital into the ecosystem.
3. Project operations rely entirely on token sales to survive, with no substantial revenue support. Once tokens lose liquidity, the entire ecosystem's promotion, node subsidies, and team operations will come to a halt instantly.
4. Highly centralized, project teams running away, and risks of network cable disconnection
1. Nominally, it is decentralized governance of the DAO, but in reality, treasury allocation and quantitative ......
$CORE #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables
$ETH The voting results for the CLARITY Act are out ✨
Thank you all for participating and fulfilling the promise made 7 days ago
On X, 43% of people voted positively to pass, while 33% favored rejection
Polymarket bets on only a 38% chance of implementation this year, with significant disagreement. Overall, the approval rate is considered low
The potential paths for Bitcoin under these two scenarios are for reference only:
🔵 If the bill is fortunate enough to be approved, it may end the bear market bottoming process early and trigger a round of upward recovery, market expectations for a rise in September-October and a year-end impact of 80,000+ yuan will further rise. A pullback can be seen as a window for positioning
🔴 If the bill ultimately encounters obstacles: the market may not immediately turn bearish, but more likely to continue repeated bottoming and digestion, with a high probability of a false breakout and strong resistance near 70,000; There is a chance it will pull back and test 47,000 in the future. In extreme cases, it may probe the 38,000-40,000 range, then refine the bottom
Currently, expectations for the bill's approval are generally low; I actually think CLARITY has a chance to be approved this year, possibly in a different form
As for the specific situation, we still have to wait for the official results to be finalized; this is just to provide some different references不要默认沃什就是鸽派：一段来自1987年的历史参照
不少市场参与者默认沃什会偏向宽松，背后逻辑很直白。
他和白宫政治纽带很深，同时家族圈层联系雅诗兰黛集团，属于典型的华盛顿精英圈层。市场由此形成一种普遍预判：由总统提名上任，沃什大概率会配合白宫诉求，倾向压低利率，不会主动收紧货币政策给经济泼冷水。
但回看美联储历史，相似的剧情早在1987年就上演过。
当年格林斯潘同样深度扎根共和党的政策体系，曾经为尼克松提供政策咨询，在福特政府任职，长期参与里根时代的经济规划。里根提名他接替沃尔克执掌美联储的时候，市场最大的疑问同样绕不开独立性：这位属于“自己阵营”的官员，能否顶住政治压力，坚守央行立场？临近1988年大选，会不会为了共和党的选情，对通胀问题选择妥协回避？
现实结果出乎很多人的预期。格林斯潘正式履职还不到一个月，就直接上调贴现率50个基点，用一次强硬的政策动作向全市场表态，不会受白宫政治诉求裹挟。
这段历史带来一个关键启示：拥有深厚政界背景、由总统提名，并不等于新任美联储主席就一定会走鸽派路线。
恰恰相反，当整个市场都在质疑新任主席能不能保持独立的时候，为了快速建立政策公信力，他反而更有可能出台偏鹰的政策，以此打消外界的猜忌。
沃什会不会复刻格林斯潘这套“用强硬表态确立信誉”的路径，今年10月底前后，市场大概率就能见到答案。
免责声明：本文仅为历史复盘与市场逻辑推演，不构成任何投资建议。$ONDO Promote the integration of US stocks and ETF tokens into the lending market, focusing on improving the efficiency of utilizing on-chain accumulated US dollar funds. Although lending pools have expanded yield channels of 4% to 5%, governance tokens lack spreads, management fees, and dividend capture rights, making it difficult for business funds to convert into token purchases. If the scale of token lending and sedimentation in US stocks increases significantly and there is a shift in token empowerment, the liquidity premium will be repriced. Conversely, if the lending pool's flow slows and protocol returns remain isolated, token prices will continue to grow away from the business.
#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Favorable Moments or Shortcoming? #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保周末至周一美股 AI 市场简报
周一开盘前的情绪是明显偏多，但属于事件驱动的反弹，而不是风险彻底解除。周末美伊宣布暂停敌对行动后，布伦特原油一度大跌约 8.8% 至 88.30 美元，缓解通胀和利率担忧；纳指100期货一度上涨约 1.7%，半导体和高贝塔 AI 股票普遍修复。
但本周同时迎来 美联储决议、GDP/PCE、微软/Meta/亚马逊/苹果财报。因此周一的上涨更像“地缘风险降温 + 超跌反弹”，真正方向仍要由 AI 资本开支、云业务增速和美联储态度决定。
🟢 偏利好因素
1. 美伊暂停交火，油价暴跌，直接改善科技股估值环境
能源价格回落会降低短期通胀预期，并减轻美债收益率继续上行的压力，对纳指和高估值 AI 股票尤其重要。航空、消费和成长股受益，能源股则可能承压。
主要受益方向：
数据中心、电力设备和高耗能 AI 基建公司
风险在于这只是“暂停”，霍尔木兹海峡和红海航运风险并未彻底消失。如果冲突重新升级，油价可能快速反弹。
2. NVIDIA据报拟为OpenAI数据中心提供2500亿美元融资担保
NVIDIA据报道正在讨论为OpenAI一个超大型数据中心项目提供约 2500亿美元融资担保。项目规划规模约10GW，总建设成本可能超过5000亿美元，另有最高约3500亿美元的芯片采购融资仍在讨论中。
这对 AI 链的正面意义是：
进一步验证 OpenAI 对长期算力的巨大需求
提高大型数据中心项目获得贷款和资本的能力
利好 GPU、网络、光互联、内存、电力和冷却基础设施
正面映射：NVDA、AVGO、MRVL、MU、VRT、ETN、GEV、SMCI。
但这不是已签署合同，目前仍处于讨论阶段。市场也会担心“芯片供应商同时为客户融资”的循环交易、信用风险和 AI 项目回报率。
3. Broadcom与Samsung达成超过2000亿美元AI芯片合作框架
Samsung周末宣布与Broadcom扩大合作，覆盖存储器、晶圆代工和先进封装，预计到2030年的合作规模超过 2000亿美元。
这是周末最明确的半导体基本面利好之一，说明：
定制 AI ASIC 需求继续扩大
先进封装和高端存储仍是关键瓶颈
Broadcom 的 AI 网络和定制芯片业务能见度进一步提高
最直接利好：AVGO。
间接利好：MU、AMAT、LRCX、KLAC、ASML及先进封装产业链。
4. CXMT上市暴涨，证明AI存储仍受到资本追捧
中国DRAM厂商CXMT周一在上海上市，股价一度上涨约 466%，IPO募资约86亿美元。
正面看，这说明资本市场依然高度看好 AI 服务器、DRAM和存储需求。
🔴 偏利空或需要警惕的因素
1. CXMT扩产可能加剧DRAM竞争
CXMT计划把IPO资金用于扩产和研发，目前在全球DRAM出货中的占比已明显提升。它的快速融资和政府支持，可能让市场重新担心未来普通DRAM供应增加和价格竞争。
主要承压标的：MU。
需要区分：
高端HBM目前仍由Micron、SK海力士和Samsung主导
CXMT短期更可能冲击传统DRAM，而不是立刻取代最先进HBM
但市场会提前交易2027—2028年的潜在供给压力
因此，CXMT上市对AI存储需求是验证，对Micron的中长期定价权却是潜在风险。
2. AI基础设施融资规模越来越大，市场会追问回报率
NVIDIA为OpenAI提供融资担保、Big Tech为数据中心租赁提供信用支持，虽然能推动建设，但也意味着AI基础设施越来越依赖复杂融资安排。
市场接下来会问：
数据中心利用率能否保持高位？
租金和算力价格能否覆盖折旧、利息及电力成本？
OpenAI及其他模型公司何时实现足够现金流？
芯片供应商是否承担了过多客户信用风险？
所以这类消息对上游订单偏利好，但也可能强化“AI资本开支是否过度”的争论。
3. 美联储本周可能维持鹰派，利率风险尚未消失
美联储将在 7月28日至29日开会。
周一盘前，市场仍在计入约 31% 的25个基点加息概率。油价虽然大幅回落，但此前能源冲击和通胀压力可能使美联储继续释放鹰派信号。
对AI股票而言：
不加息但措辞鹰派：可能限制反弹高度
意外加息：高估值芯片、软件和neocloud最易受压
明确淡化后续加息：有利于纳指和半导体继续修复
4. Big Tech财报门槛很高
本周是AI资本开支逻辑的重要检验期：
7月29日盘后：Microsoft、Meta、Qualcomm
7月30日盘后：Amazon、Apple
市场关注的不只是EPS，而是：
Azure、AWS和Meta广告/AI收入增速
2026年AI资本开支是否继续上调
数据中心折旧是否压低利润率和自由现金流
AI基础设施是否真正转化为云收入
Apple是否给出更清晰的端侧AI商业路径
如果资本开支继续暴增，但云增长和利润率没有同步改善，可能再次引发科技股抛售。 The foundation hasn't even finished reinforcing steel installation, yet the Fed's concrete pouring truck is already suspended in mid-air.
The Fed's FOMC rate decision is like the concrete mix recipe for the load-bearing wall of the global financial market. Now, oil prices have plummeted due to expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire—this is equivalent to removing a key prefabricated panel of inflation pressure, while the initial jobless claims at 187K are 3K less than blueprint expectations, indicating the labor market's steel framework remains solid. These changes in external loads are recalculating the static equilibrium of the market's structure.
Looking at Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon's earnings reports on Wednesday and Thursday, the capital expenditure guidance is the real blueprint determining the height of the next few floors. FTX's fifth round of $900 million creditor compensation is like debris backfill after demolishing an old building; it can temporarily level the construction site but don't expect it to support a new framework. Bitcoin returning to $65,000 and the fear and greed index climbing back from the basement to 30—this is just a wind vibration test on the construction site; the structure hasn't reached dangerous deflection yet.
As for the XPL you mentioned, it's just a steel curtain wall unit tokenized from the US stock market, following the deformation of the US stock market's rigid frame, not the load transfer of the crypto native layer. Oil prices falling, stable interest rates, and strong earnings reports have temporarily built a safety net for risk assets, but don't forget, the real load-bearing still depends on the wall poured by the Fed—Wednesday at 2 PM (US Eastern Time), the moment the concrete solidifies is when the project's structural safety is tested. #FOMCRateWatch Bitcoin Market Analysis and Quick Forecast:
【BTC back to 65K, but volume hasn't kept up, bulls and bears hold positions, direction awaits FOMC decision】
BTC rebounded from 63,800 over the weekend to above 65,000, then on Monday surged to 65,555 before retreating to around 65,200, consolidating narrowly to gather strength.
But looking closely at the market, there are several odd points:
1. The price rebound relies on the US-Iran ceasefire news, not buying pressure!
US and Iran paused mutual attacks over the weekend, oil prices plunged over 5% from $100, BTC followed with a rebound. But ETF capital inflow last week was only $33.79 million, down from $75.7 million and $197.4 million in the previous two weeks, showing decreasing inflow strength. BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-week outflow of $95.9 million, with over $400 million outflow combined on Thursday and Friday. BlackRock has now become a major short seller!
2. Bull and bear volume continues to shrink
Bitcoin spot ETF weekly trading volume was $8.05 billion, the lowest since October 2024, down 14% from the previous week. Also, net inflow of Bitcoin from whales to exchanges has plummeted 44% from the mid-June peak.
On the 4-hour chart, bull and bear volumes are evenly matched but weak; both sides are cautious. Daily trading volume is also relatively sluggish, and current price moves depend heavily on news.
3. FOMC is the biggest variable
At 2:30 AM Beijing time Thursday, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced. CME FedWatch shows a 31.5% chance of a rate hike in July, up from just over 10% at the start of the month. All 104 economists surveyed expect no change, but futures market prices in over a 30% chance of a hike, showing significant divergence.
4. Direction forecast and best trading strategy
(1) Daily volume from July 1 to July 27 still shows volume-price divergence, indicating bulls are not strong and attacks lack sustainability;
(2) The 4-hour bull volume curve from July 1 to July 27 shows bull volume gradually weakening, with no major or secondary volume peaks in the past week, overall weak and declining;
(3) ETF institutional funds have net outflow of about $220 million over two consecutive days, with BlackRock leading as a major short seller, institutions are retreating from ETFs;
(4) Probability of a rate hike expectation has slightly increased, and the Clear Act is unlikely to pass, both are potential bearish factors;
(5) Bitcoin price has rebounded to around 65,500, near previous highs, bull momentum is insufficient, and upside space is limited.
Based on these five factors, I predict Bitcoin is overall bearish and weak, with a relatively high probability of subsequent decline and correction. If the price surges due to news, it is not a trend reversal but a price pulse triggered by news, not suitable for chasing highs, better to reduce positions on rallies or set up short positions.
Key levels:
(1) Upside: resistance at 65,500-65,800, break above targets 66,500-67,000;
(2) Downside: support at 64,200-64,300, break below targets 63,000-63,500.
Best strategy: Before the FOMC decision, stay on the sidelines. After the FOMC, below 67,500, mainly short on rallies.
#Bitcoin #BTC #3DTradingAnalysis #FOMC $BTC #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议