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BTC is indeed strong this time, but the more it is like this, the less willing I am to chase in the middle range.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is about $78,971, up about 2.1% in 24 hours, with a high of $80,715 and a low of $77,955.
It has risen about 22.9% in the past seven days.
Normally, such a rise should have triggered deeper profit-taking by now, but every time BTC returns near 78,000, there are buyers.
Funds have not withdrawn either.
On August 25, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $314.3 million again, marking seven consecutive trading days of inflows, totaling about $2.57 billion.
But I also see a problem:
The 24-hour trading volume dropped to about $34.5 billion, down about 39.5% from the previous day.
The price is holding, but the volume has shrunk.
This means it looks more like high-level rotation rather than a new round of acceleration.
True strength is not about never falling, but about holding firm during low volume and surging during high volume.
From now on, I only watch two levels:
A breakthrough and hold above 80,700 is needed to continue targeting 81,200—84,000; if it repeatedly fails to break 80,700, the price will most likely retest 78,000.
If 78,000 breaks down with volume, the next stop to watch is around 76,500.
Do you think BTC will reach 84,000 first, or retest 78,000 first? Over the past week, the news has been overwhelmingly intense.
Besent announced an expansion of long-term debt repurchases and launched an "economic D-Day" against Iran, judging that the U.S. does not need to take large-scale military action again. Meanwhile, Trump announced raising tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, and parts to 50%; a Pakistani delegation went to Iran to mediate, and this morning news emerged that the U.S. and Iran have reached a consensus on ceasefire terms.
Six events, three completely different policy areas, all squeezed into the same week. The directions conflict with each other, yet the pace is highly consistent, all accelerating.
Most people handle this by breaking the news apart and looking at each piece individually. Each can lead to a reasonable conclusion: tariffs may push inflation up, U.S.-Iran détente may lower inflation; long-term debt repurchases ease valuation pressure, trade frictions erode corporate profits.
But combined, it’s a tangled mess, full of contradictions.
Most of the time, when a bunch of seemingly conflicting policies crowd into the same window, the problem isn’t "these policies contradict each other," but rather "they share the same calendar."
Finding this calendar reveals why someone managing $40 trillion in national debt suddenly becomes a key player in the Iran issue, and why a government that just took action against Canada is simultaneously eager to pull back in the Middle East. $ETH $XAU $CL #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场, can the IPO narrative be realized? The $30 trillion TAM will never be realized—it was never a prediction, just a tool to "rationalize" the $2 trillion valuation. The IPO itself (ringing the bell in September-October and raising 100 billion+ yuan) is very likely to succeed; But a $2 trillion valuation and long-term value after listing are two different things, questionable. How did this figure come about? On August 25, The Wall Street Journal quoted insiders: Anthropic is preparing to tell investors during its IPO roadshow that its potential market (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion, surpassing SpaceX's record of $28.5 trillion set in June. Caliber: Package all future human jobs that AI can take on—programming, law, healthcare, financial analysis, customer service, research, education. Essentially, it is "an overall price tag for the cognitive labor that humanity can deliver," not industry estimates. Comparison anchor: The U.S. annual GDP is about 32.4 trillion; The 191 tech companies in the S&P 1500 had combined revenue of only $2.4 trillion last year, more than twelve times that amount. Even if the most optimistic revenue reaches $200 billion by 2028, it will only account for 0.67% of $30 trillion. Historically, Uber spent $6 trillion in 2019, WeWork reached $3 trillion, both of which were mocked back then. New York University's Dean of ValuationXinhua News Agency cites Pakistani military and Iranian security sources: the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire agreement, including free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with an official announcement expected within a few days.
The market transmission chain for this matter is very clear:
Hormuz reopens → crude oil supply resumes → Brent prices come under pressure and fall → inflation expectations cool down → Federal Reserve rate cut space opens → non-interest assets benefit across the board → BTC and gold rise simultaneously.
During the last ceasefire in April, Brent fell about 16% in a single day from $120 to $92, and BTC also showed a significant improvement in risk appetite during the same period.
Today BTC is around $79,000, with the 50-week moving average at $82,470 as the next key confirmation level—if the ceasefire official announcement drives oil prices down and the dollar weakens, the $82,470 level could face a real challenge this week.
The source of the news is currently Pakistani and Iranian channels cited by RIA Novosti; the US side has not yet officially confirmed. Maintain observation before the official announcement is released. $BTC #US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
"US expands sanctions on Iran colliding with Strait navigation talks, why did oil prices plunge below $86?"
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just blacklisted 60 entities and vessels, threatening comprehensive economic isolation, yet international crude oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days. After Brent crude dropped 3.89% in a single day, it further fell below the $86 mark during trading on the 26th, retreating nearly 7% from the previous high of $92.
Market funds are rapidly clearing risk premiums because Tehran has turned to reach a framework agreement with Oman to establish a joint temporary shipping corridor limited to civilian commercial vessels, directly breaking the long-standing unilateral bet on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The White House fears uncontrolled oil prices will backfire on domestic inflation, while nearly 90% of Iran's crude oil has long circulated through non-dollar channels. Paper sanctions cannot physically cut off supply, and with 30 to 60 days of navigation talks underway, crude oil bulls are concentrating on closing positions and exiting the market. $BTC The $30 trillion AI super narrative—will it retrace SpaceX's old path?
Recently, Anthropic's IPO expectations have been all over the news.
The most shocking statement: AI's potential market size (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion.
What does that mean?
The entire US annual GDP is about $32 trillion.
In other words, the capital market is pricing AI—almost creating another US economy.
The story is grand and sexy enough, but when you strip away the hype and look at the real data, the gap is glaring.
Anthropic's own forecast:
Target revenue in 2028 is only $190–200 billion.
A simple calculation:
The so-called $30 trillion super track, the revenue realized in the next three years, is less than 1% of the total market.
$30 trillion is the ultimate imagination; $200 billion is the short-term reality.
The biggest risk in the capital market always comes from "expectations being too high, but execution falling short."
This immediately reminds me of SpaceX.
Before going public, it had an epic narrative: space economy, interstellar ecosystem, hundreds of trillions in market space.
At IPO, it was wildly chased by capital, soaring to over 200.
But as everyone saw:
No matter how top-tier the story, the secondary market ultimately recognizes only performance and fulfillment.
Once the overvaluation bubble recedes, even the brightest track falls back to reality.
Now Anthropic's script is almost a replica:
Using "ten, twenty years of ultimate future" to support "today's trillion-dollar valuation."
Many are following the hype bullishly, but I prefer to calmly break down three real valuation logics:
1. Revenue growth is fast but falls short of market ambition
Anthropic's revenue growth is indeed impressive, jumping from 9 billion to 65 billion in 7 months.
But the capital market's expectations are even higher; failing to meet consensus expectations is an implicit negative.
In high-growth industries, the deadliest thing is not no growth, but "growth slowdown."
2. Newly positive profits are actually fragile
Currently, adjusted profits have just turned positive.
But combined with large equity incentives and heavy R&D investment, the real net profit that can be realized is not optimistic.
The AI industry is still burning cash; profit stability is far from sufficient.
3. Industry dividends are becoming competitive; high premiums are hard to maintain long-term
More players are entering the large model track, and enterprise clients are starting to rationally diversify.
People no longer blindly chase top-tier models but prioritize cost-effective models.
Future high valuation premiums will definitely be slowly diluted by fierce competition.
To be honest:
The $30 trillion TAM essentially prices the ultimate vision of "full automation of human labor."
But this level of realization requires more than a decade of technological iteration and industrial penetration.
The stock market is a quarterly voting machine, not a century-long dream harvester.
Grand narratives can support long-term faith but are absolutely unsuitable for short-term blind heavy positions.
History always repeats:
There are always people who believe "this time is different," and always people who treat distant stories as reasons to buy now.
Those who stood guard at SpaceX's peak are still here; now it's AI super IPO mania's turn.
In the hot potato game, the most dangerous moment is when everyone is immersed in a beautiful story.
My current stance is clear:
Respect the track, not the bubble.
AI is definitely the future, no doubt about that.
But future money cannot be earned by overdrawing valuations and blindly rushing now.
Investment ultimately competes not on imagination but on execution ability, cash flow, and real moats.
Stories can be seasoning, but as staple food, the market will teach a lesson.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ BTC is up 41% from the June low
In the last two midterm years that bounce was +49% and +43%
BUT, if you think the LOW IS IN, watch the "Fed meeting" on September 16
Odds of a hike dropped to 30% after they announced the $1T bond buyback, but they're back at 40% now
That's enough for it to happen
If it does: liquidity tightens, stocks have historically dropped ~20%, AND crypto follows in Q4
The low could be in, but if they hike, I #BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM To be honest, **I'm not sure, but I can analyze the probabilities.**
**Bearish signals:**
- Nvidia has fallen for 7 consecutive days, the longest streak since 2022 — institutions are reducing positions in advance, indicating low market expectations for this quarter's earnings
- The US continues to tighten AI chip export restrictions to China, which will impact this revenue segment
- There are market doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures
**Bullish signals:**
- AI demand is real, cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) are still accelerating capital expenditures
- The 7-day decline may have already priced in the negative expectations — the stock price has absorbed some pessimism
- Nvidia historically has a high probability of "beat and raise" (exceeding expectations + raising guidance)
**My judgment: small probability of a significant beat, high probability of meeting expectations, small probability of missing expectations.**
Why I say this:
- The 7-day decline shows Wall Street has already priced in "not so good" results
- Nvidia's execution has always been strong, so actual data will likely beat expectations
- But the beat margin may not be large enough to reverse the 7-day downtrend
**Impact on you:**
- **If earnings are good (40% probability):** BTC may directly surge above $83K, and your holdings will continue to rise
- **If earnings meet expectations (40% probability):** price may drop first then rise or trade sideways, with little impact
- **If earnings are poor (20% probability):** BTC will pull back short-term to $75K-$77K, which is exactly our first batch buy-in price
No matter which scenario, your position structure is correct — have a base holding to enjoy the rise, and cash ready to buy the dip. This is why I say "wait for news" rather than "guess the news." Bitcoin finally reached the $80,000 mark, but many people's accounts didn't feel any lighter. Market sentiment quickly shifted from floating gains two days ago to floating losses—a shift more intense than expected. At first, I thought the short position around 78,600 was safe enough, but looking back now, the risk was always there—just inertia at the time masked it. The entire account's stop-loss line has been forced downward, now hanging at 94,000. The biggest dilemma is whether to give up and exit first, or take a chance to rebound and find a new position to short. Ethereum still holds a few dozen dollars in floating gains for now, but by the time I write this, it may have already turned from green to red. The overall market is climbing, and the interlocking effect has pushed Ethereum's liquidation price higher, now passively adjusted to around 2,700. If the market continues to rise, the liquidation prices of the two positions will be pushed up even further. At that point, the only remaining options are to keep adding margin, using funds to buy time, and wait for the market to give a clear direction. Looking back, the root cause of this round of losses isn't a misjudgment at a certain level, but rather a mindset developed too deeply in a long-term bear market. If you have been short for too long, people will instinctively think every rebound is a fake, and every bullish candlestick should be suppressed. But when ZEC and HYPE hit new highs one after another, the market has already given the answer through action: the trend has long changed, and they are still searching for new territories with the old map. If there is another decent pullback next, what should be done is decisively let go of the obsession with bears and adjustHormuz Route Resumption Realized: It's Not a Positive Event, But a Market-wide Sentiment Repricing
Recently, many people have been talking about the resumption of the Hormuz route, with most staying on the surface: geopolitical easing, risk cooling, positive for risk assets.
But the real market logic is far more complex than the news headlines.
My intuitive judgment: crude oil quickly returns to reality, gold faces short-term pressure, BTC enters the most difficult phase of volatile long-short oscillation.
The market never trades facts, only expectation gaps.
In the past few months, the pricing across commodities, macro, and crypto markets has been heavily loaded with a "Middle East risk premium." Now that the route is restored and tensions have cooled, this is essentially not a positive factor but a collective clearing of the previous risk-hedging premium.
1. Crude Oil: Sentiment Recedes, Returns Fastest
A large part of the recent high oil prices came from geopolitical risk premiums, not real supply and demand.
With the route restored and circulation smooth, this excess premium will quickly fade.
Don't expect a slow decline; the futures market always settles sentiment recovery in one go.
Previously accumulated long positions will exit en masse, and oil prices will rapidly return to the real supply-demand range.
Simply put: what supports oil prices is sentiment, not demand; once sentiment is gone, prices naturally fall quickly.
2. Gold: Short-term Pressure, Long-term Logic Intact
With easing tensions, safe-haven funds flow out immediately, so gold will be drained and adjusted in the short term, which is the most normal market reaction.
But what truly determines gold's trend has never been geopolitical conflict, but inflation and interest rate expectations.
Oil prices continue to fall → inflation expectations cool further → Fed rate cut space reopens.
Therefore, this round of gold correction looks more like a "shakeout" rather than a peak.
After short-term sentiment exits, macro easing expectations will dominate again, and gold still has room for recovery later.
3. BTC: The Most Agonizing Phase Now—Long and Short Logic Both Valid
Many are puzzled: with easing tensions, will crypto rise or fall?
Actually, there is no one-sided trend now, only macro two-way tug-of-war:
Short-term bearish logic:
Geopolitical risk settles and fades, market risk aversion sentiment recedes, combined with short-term swings in rate cut expectations, risk assets will follow the broader market under pressure, with intensified oscillation and divergence, altcoins face obvious correction pressure.
Mid-term bullish logic:
If oil prices continue to weaken and economic recovery expectations weaken, the market will reprice "recession + easing."
After commodity funds flow out, excess liquidity will eventually flow back to equities and digital assets as growth targets.
This is why BTC is extremely frustrating at this stage:
Short-term selling pressure, mid-term support, both long and short can make money but are also easily stopped out.
4. The Most Reliable Trading Approach Now
Don't trade based on news; focus only on core macro anchors—the long end of US Treasury yields.
- Long-end yields falling: market trades recession expectations, declines are opportunities, key levels can be used to scale in.
- Long-end yields rising: market trades soft landing recovery, rallies are chances to reduce positions, patiently wait for a second low.
At this point, I am increasingly certain of one thing:
All surface news ultimately serves macro liquidity.
Making decisions based on news-driven moves is always one step behind the market.
Real trading is about anticipating expectation shifts in advance, not being led by market sentiment.
Currently, do not chase longs or shorts; maintain a neutral position, keep patience and ammunition.
In a choppy market, survival is more important than short-term windfalls.
Let's talk about your positions: are you currently watching, lightly testing longs, or leaning bearish and defensive?
$BTC $CL $XAU #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 Did you notice the US crypto stock index surged 5.04% in this rally?
Robinhood $HOOD rose over 7%, MicroStrategy $MSTR rose over 6%, Coinbase $COIN and Circle $CRCL also rose over 4%. This big surge seems to be a catch-up rally following $BTC breaking 80,000, but the capital flow behind it is quite worth analyzing.
First, US stock institutions are buying compliant substitutes.
Many traditional institutional funds have compliance restrictions and cannot directly buy tokens, but they can compete for shares through the US stock channel. The capital is not betting on token price fluctuations but on the commercialization dividends of the entire crypto infrastructure under the US stock framework.
Second, valuation reshaping from computing power transformation.
Many mining companies are converting excess data centers into AI infrastructure. The market has found that these companies have ready power and server rooms, directly benefiting from the AI computing power wave, enjoying the dual premium of cryptocurrency and AI.
Next, there will be intense differentiation within the sector. Targets relying purely on existing holdings to support valuation will have high volatility. Companies with real business settlements, able to leverage stablecoin interest or enter AI computing power leasing, will see strong US stock buying support during pullbacks.
Are you now more inclined to favor US-listed crypto stocks, or do you prefer pure token assets?
DYOR Looking back at the 1011 event last year, the largest single-day liquidation in history, it seems like it was destined to happen
Why do I say that? Look at the image below, at that time Bitcoin was around 120,000, Ethereum around 4,700
The number of open contracts for liquidation in crypto reached an unprecedented high at that time (mostly long positions)
Looking back, historically, whenever the number of open contracts accumulated excessively, there was a sharp crash
So it can be predicted that if the number of open contracts again becomes excessive or reaches historical extremes in the future, caution is needed, as a major crash may occur, and there will be new reasons for it
Last year, big exchanges pulled the plug and rushed ahead, so what about next time?
$BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC cooling down — what’s next?
$BTC dropped to the $78.8K–$79K range after failing to hold $80K, while $ETH slid close to $2.45K. For now, this looks more like a cooldown rather than a confirmed reversal.
Going forward, pay close attention to ETF fund flows + trading volume! #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 8.26 Gold Afternoon Analysis
In the morning, the price retraced to 4630 and stabilized before rebounding above 4670. The short-term bulls have fully released momentum, entering a high-level consolidation. The daily bullish structure remains intact, but RSI is overbought and momentum is weakening. The 4700 level faces resistance, and the hourly chart shows a divergence correction is needed.
In the afternoon, the market mainly digests profit-taking with consolidation. Buy on dips around 4620-4630, with a stop loss below 4600. The target is 4670-4680, and a breakout could reach 4700.
Note:
The above analysis is the personal view of Mu Yao. The market changes rapidly, and the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice! $XAU Strong inflows into spot $BTC ETFs continue, according to SoSoValue.8.26 Midday BTC Market Analysis
After a surge and subsequent pullback, BTC is currently in a consolidation phase. Yesterday, bulls pushed the price up, reaching a high near 81270 during the session, then faced resistance and pulled back. In the early hours today, the price repeatedly tested support in the 78000‑79000 range effectively.
Key Levels
Upper resistance: The 80000 round number is the core resistance level. A strong volume-backed close above this level is needed to open up a new upward move; once broken, attention can shift to the 81500‑82500 range.
Trading Strategy Reference
Bullish bias: If the price stabilizes after pulling back to the 78100‑78500 range, consider light long positions with targets at 80000‑81000, and place stop-loss below 77500. Orders with 30x leverage may look like a big gamble on the surface, but in reality, it's just betting on the margin of error for direction. Profits are amplified, losses are amplified too, and a slight misstep can easily get you harshly punished by the market.
Key data here: the coin is xyz:XYZ100, leverage 30x, long position, entry price 29,197.73, position size $249,988.
Don't be fooled by the large position size; the biggest risk with high leverage isn't momentary volatility, but your own emotional overreaction. If you stick stubbornly to the wrong direction, hoping the market will turn around on its own, small losses can snowball into big ones, or you might even get liquidated and taught a harsh lesson.
Experienced traders say bluntly: going long with 30x leverage isn't bravery, it's trading discipline for thrill. If you're right, you feast; if you're wrong, the market will teach you a lesson in minutes.
Cut losses when you should; don't mistake stubbornly holding on for skill. Preserve your capital, so you have the chance to turn things around next time. Recent key focuses in the crypto circle‼️
1. The US expands crypto sanctions on Iran, increasing compliance risks; Middle East conflicts push inflation higher, reviving Fed hawkish concerns
2. BTC spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, but the market is in an extreme greed zone with crowded high leverage, increasing liquidation risks
3. Overall news is neutral to volatile, bulls have funds supporting the bottom, short-term pullback selling pressure is heavy, beware of sharp drops from the highs
$BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $HYPE is consolidating with reduced volume below its historical highs, as long-term interest-bearing buyback expectations meet the imminent release of internal tokens head-on.
After the price touched $83.3, it retraced to the $80 level for consolidation, with spot trading volume contracting as high-level holders take profits.
The official launch of AQAv2 brings a $5 billion reserve interest-bearing buyback mechanism, expected to inject over $100 million in buying annually, while on August 29, a $1.2 billion token unlock will occur.
The buying commitment is spread evenly over time on an annual basis, but the incremental supply shock from circulating tokens will be realized in concentrated bursts at specific points, making short-term positions more defensive.
If bulls can absorb the initial liquidity supply above $78 and rebuild risk appetite through buyback cash flows, the price is likely to open space above $84.
If heavy selling pressure breaks through the $77 support line directly, a liquidity gap may force the valuation to seek more solid support around $72.7.
If the unlocked tokens do not enter secondary market circulation, the current pressure logic will be overturned.
The most important variable to watch in the coming week is the actual scale and flow rate of unlocked tokens transferred on-chain to trading platforms on August 29.
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期$5 billion of IBIT options expire on September 18.
Most of that is calls: $3B vs $2B in puts.
Max pain sits at $40, which corresponds to a #BTC price of approximately $71k.Tonight is all about betting on Nvidia $xNVDA! Revenue expectation of 92 billion, the ultimate validation of AI computing power
$NVDA will release its Q2 earnings after the market closes today, the biggest event in the global capital markets this week.
Wall Street expects revenue of 92 billion, EPS of $2.09, and data center revenue is expected to be 85.4 billion, up 107% year-over-year. But Jefferies has raised the "bullish threshold" to 95 billion, and next quarter's guidance needs to be 108 billion to be considered above expectations.
Nvidia has fallen for seven consecutive days, the longest losing streak since 2022. The storage sector plunged more than 6% the day before yesterday and then launched a full-scale rebound before the market opened yesterday. Funds are frantically speculating ahead of the earnings report.
Three key points: whether the customer structure is diversified, the relay timetable from Blackwell to Vera-Rubin, and whether the 500 billion financing pool will become a new risk. Market cap is 5.25 trillion; a 14% increase would reach 6 trillion. If the earnings report is good, the entire AI industry chain will experience a major upward wave; if mediocre, it will oscillate at a high level. No sleep tonight. #NvidiaEarnings $NVDA Has the sentiment indicator reached a short-term peak?
CryptoQuant Research tweeted that $BTC has entered the early stage of a new bull market, but some short-term indicators are starting to overheat.
The intention is clear: to warn leveraged traders to be cautious, as the early bull market is a directional cycle, which doesn’t mean it will rise every time.
Short-term overheating indicates the price is rising too fast, and profit-taking and leveraged funds need to be digested.
Market sentiment also confirms this.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to its highest level since the crash in October 2025.
Funds that were hesitant a few weeks ago are now starting to worry about missing out, with a clear increase in FOMO.
On the other hand, institutional moves are more subtle.
Wintermute has reduced its short exposure on Hyperliquid to $80.48 million, indicating that professional funds are unwilling to continue heavy bets on a decline but still maintain some short positions, not fully switching to a one-sided bullish stance.
The current market feels more like "direction biased bullish, positions overheated."
It is important to watch if the rise is mainly driven by spot and ETF funds, in which case a pullback might just be a rotation.
If funds continue to flow into futures, with open interest and funding rates rising rapidly, a single pullback could turn into a chain liquidation.
So whether it’s a bull market and whether to chase the highs are two different things.
The biggest risk is trading with maximum leverage when sentiment is at its peak, unable to withstand a sharp drop during the bull market. $SUI's introduction of tZERO's compliant infrastructure is favorable for mid- to long-term institutional capital entry, but there is a timing conflict between the lag in U.S. stock securities clearing cycles and the short-term speculative demands of the crypto derivatives market.
tZERO's issuance, custody, and trade settlement support has connected the U.S. regulatory compliance channel, and pricing in the spot market is beginning to tilt toward institutional compliant capital absorption. The derivatives market's short-term reaction to such long-cycle compliant infrastructure benefits tends to show liquidity withdrawal after the benefits are realized.
From the capital flow perspective, the integration of compliant custody and transfer agency facilities enhances the expectation of locking spot tokens. The implementation cycle for U.S. stock market infrastructure access is usually long, making it difficult to immediately convert into explosive growth in on-chain liquidity or order book depth in the short term.
The bullish scenario requires observing the persistence of spot buying at support levels. If subsequent $SUI on-chain compliant asset issuance volume and derivatives open interest both show stepwise growth, and funding rates remain in a healthy positive range, it indicates that institutional compliant incremental capital is substantively entering the market.
In this case, every 10% increase in spot depth will reduce the slippage impact of large sell pressure on price, confirming the effectiveness of the bullish structure. If there is a sharp rise in high-level holdings while spot trading volume decouples, it indicates short-term capital is prematurely exhausting expectations, weakening the validity of the uptrend.
The bearish scenario stems from short-term liquidity withdrawal during the compliance implementation cycle. If the time cost of U.S. stock facility integration exhausts the patience of on-chain active capital, the combination of derivatives market short covering and spot profit-taking will push prices to retest lower liquidity concentration zones.
Once derivative funding rates quickly turn negative and spot net outflows continue to expand, it means short-term long stop-loss orders have been triggered, and downside risk will further transmit to spot buy order support zones. If spot order book depth does not increase correspondingly, the market will face a phase of clearing tests.
The overall scenario fails if there is a sharp contraction in the macro liquidity environment. When risk-off sentiment dominates overall market capital outflows, the progress of compliant pipeline construction will temporarily lose marginal pricing power over the price.
In the next 7 days, key monitoring points include $SUI spot large capital flows, changes in derivatives open interest position structure, and the performance of the first batch of compliant asset on-chain clearing data.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 After PUMP surged to 0.0050 in this round, I've been waiting for a piece of data.
Will the competition pressure stop?
The latest day:
Another 3.15B volume traded.
It has been a heavy focus for consecutive days.
I find this more interesting than a sudden spike on a single day.
One day could be just sentiment.
Consistent activity at least shows this wave isn't just shorts being forced to liquidate.
The day it first stabilizes, I will be especially eager to see.
$PUMPBTC is testing the 50-week MA
In November, we broke below this moving average, confirming the bear market.
Now we’re testing it again—which is exactly what usually happens at the start of a 3-year bull market.
I expect a bounce from this zone and a 10–15% correction.
The bears still have plenty of time to fight back👊#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视
Quant giant Jane Street has significantly increased its stake in SanDisk, holding 5%, making it its second-largest stock position, with a major bet on the AI storage sector. SanDisk's stock price has surged over 3000% in the past year, transforming from a traditional flash memory manufacturer into a core AI inference storage target. Revenue expectations for AI data center business have soared, and long-term locked-price orders have solidified the performance base, greatly enhancing market recognition of its growth logic.
From an optimistic perspective, the AI industry focus is shifting from training to inference, with storage becoming the core bottleneck beyond computing power. HBF high-speed flash technology opens up incremental space, and institutional accumulation represents smart money's confidence in the industry's long-term dividends. The AI storage sector's valuation still has room for recovery.
Personal view: Short-term gains have overextended expectations, and valuation is already in a high-level competitive range. Jane Street's accumulation is a mid-term allocation move and does not imply the stock price will continue to rise unilaterally. Once cloud providers slow capital expenditures and storage price cycles fluctuate, high valuations will face sharp corrections. Differentiation in the AI storage sector will intensify; only companies with solid technical barriers and strong order certainty can realize value.
Mapping to the crypto market, AI computing power and storage narrative tokens will experience sentiment catalysts, but most are thematic pulses, so avoid chasing highs blindly. Future focus should track SanDisk's order fulfillment, NAND flash price trends, and changes in institutional holdings.#TOTAL MARKET CAP ANALYSIS
Total market cap has broken out of the ascending triangle pattern with significant volume, signaling strong bullish momentum.
Currently, it is trading below the horizontal supply zone, which is acting as a key resistance level.
A solid breakout above the supply zone could trigger further upside, while rejection from this level may lead to a pullback.The whole market is waiting for Waller's Jackson Hole debut, but I'll be straightforward—most likely, we won't hear much.
Honestly, this is increasingly looking like a big self-celebration event. Bank of America says 69% of fund managers expect him to speak "neutral," so what's the point? It's already priced in, so it's pointless to say anything.
But don't be fooled by the market betting on neutrality; Waller is truly a hawk at heart. At the July meeting, the vote was 9 to 3 to hold steady, and the 3 dissenters all wanted a 25bp hike. Have you read the minutes? "Many members feel that if inflation doesn't come down, tightening is necessary." The June dot plot was even more direct: out of 18 people, 9 expect another hike this year. The Senate says zero tolerance for high inflation—think about that.
The problem is the data is quite puzzling. July's nonfarm payrolls came in at -23,000, while expectations were +80,000; employment just cooled off suddenly. But CPI is still at 3.4%, far from 2%. What do you want him to say at this point? If he talks about hiking, employment data contradicts him; if he talks about cutting rates, he loses credibility.
And that's not all—Waller's style is to say less and do more. Since taking office, he cut the policy statement from 400 words to 150 and removed forward guidance. Do you expect him to clearly say whether there will be a hike in September? Think again.
For the crypto space, this will just be a volatility amplifier, not a directional signal. We still need to watch the September nonfarm payroll and CPI data.
Personal view for sharing only: $BTC has fallen from 80,000 to 79,000, support is seen at 76,000-74,000; $ETH is hovering around 2450, if it can't hold, look for 2350-2200; $SOL is near 96, if it really breaks, look for a bottom at 88-83. #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be fulfilled?
A $30 trillion market—when this number came out for Anthropic, it was indeed quite intimidating.
What does a $30 trillion market mean?
It's even larger than the $28.5 trillion market space given when SpaceX went public.
Sounds like good news, but what does this $30 trillion have to do with Anthropic?
Because TAM, simply put, means "If I capture all potential future demand, theoretically I can earn this much."
But in reality, Anthropic expects revenue around $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028. Compared to the $30 trillion market space, it actually accounts for only a small portion.
What really determines how much this company is worth is never how big the market is, but how much it can capture. Will customers keep paying? Does the model truly have differentiation? Can pricing power be maintained? Most importantly, can the money earned cover the rapidly growing computing power and R&D costs?
This logic is actually very similar to the crypto space.
A project tells you:
"This is a trillion-dollar market."
"Future penetration rate is only 1%, which is $10 billion."
Sounds very tempting.
But in the end, the market only asks one question: Why should your 1% be yours?
Just like a trillion-dollar track doesn’t mean a certain coin is worth a trillion dollars.
A high ceiling doesn’t mean you can really climb there.
$ANTHROPIC 🔥 This might be the signal Bitcoin has been waiting for. Let's temporarily set aside the market noise and look at these two signals that have appeared simultaneously before major crypto market expansions: 📈 The ISM Manufacturing Index just rose to 55.6 🚀 The Russell 2000 Index just broke through 3,000 points, hitting a record high In 2016, we saw a similar combination, which was followed by the first major crypto bull market. In 2020, this signal appeared again, and the total crypto market caOKX's update to the rules for Simple Earn Flexible may seem like a minor adjustment to the earning product, but it actually has a significant impact on many people who habitually put idle coins into their current accounts. The official announcement is very straightforward: starting August 26, 2026, some Simple Earn Flexible products will adopt a new APR calculation method. Simply put, in the past, people would focus on just one display yield when looking at demand deposit earnings; Now, you need to pay more attention to the interest calculation logic, reward sources, caps, and real-time explanations on the product page. Demand deposits are not fixed, nor are they locked for mining; their core value is liquidity. Being able to subscribe and redeem anytime means returns won't always be fixed at a nice number. For these rule changes, I usually don't ask "Has the return decreased?" but look at three points first. First, look at where the APR actually comes from. Is it base earnings, event rewards, or a comprehensive display after layering? If there are extra rewards on the page, you need to clarify whether they are long-term rules. The most common misunderstanding in the crypto world is treating the event period numbers as regular earnings. When the event ends and returns to normal levels, then the platform changes its attitude, often because you didn't see clearly at first. Second, check the limit. Money earned through demand often involves personal limits, total limits, tiered returns, or differences in coin types. The returns seen by large and small funds may be completely different. Especially for $USDT and $USDC casesThe entire market is declining, with CORE and BICO rising against the trend, while BTC, $ETH, and a host of mainstream coins collectively dip, painting the market green overall, with the vast majority of coins falling along with the market. But a strange scene has appeared: CORE and BICO did not follow the market plunge; instead, they independently rose against the trend, making the red-green contrast particularly striking. The community instantly exploded with two kinds of voices. Some on the OKX Planet got excited, saying: This is a strong whale's independent rally! Being resistant to the drop means they are leaders; the more the market falls, the more it proves their strength, signaling the official start of a bull market. Many observers, seeing the counter-trend resilience, had their long-suppressed greed resurface, thinking that with the market weakening, funds are clustering around these two coins, eager to rush in and seize the safe-haven opportunity, yet feeling no joy, only a strong sense of unease. There are two completely different scripts for counter-trend rises: $BICO has real business support in its sector, with verifiable on-chain business flows and almost no large team unlock sell pressure, representing sector funds clustering for risk aversion. Even so, under the market's systemic sell-off, the counter-trend rise is still a short-term pump by speculative whales, not a guaranteed profit. In contrast, $CORE does not have large-scale realized business revenue. When the market crashes, its counter-trend rise is more easily manipulated by small amounts of funds due to its small market cap. Market panic causes mainstream coin funds to flee, while a small amount of short-term hot money comes to speculate on the BTCFi narrative and the whales create a false image of resistance strength, attracting panicked retail investors to enter and take the risk. The most dangerous trap lies precisely here. The market plunges, and the counter-trend rise continues The Fear and Greed Index surged to 74, the highest since the crash in October 2025! Are you panicking?
On August 12, the index was still at 27 (Fear).
In less than two weeks, it jumped straight to 74 (Greed).
On Wednesday, it slightly pulled back to 65, but the level almost coincides with October 5 last year—
And on the 5th day after that, the entire network saw about $19 billion in leverage liquidations in a single day.
BTC rallied from below 68,000 to nearly 80,000 within a week.
DOGE rose 24% weekly, Thinking Cat +131%, Cash Cat +113%.
Low-liquidity meme coins took off first, indicating retail investors' risk appetite is back, and leverage is quietly building up.
I'm not bearish; this trend is indeed strong.
But history tells us: the index is not a buy or sell alarm; it’s a "crowding thermometer."
74 doesn’t mean a drop tomorrow, it just means the cost-benefit ratio of chasing further is worsening.
What I’m doing now:
1) Not maxing out leverage to follow the crowd.
2) Taking profits in batches and keeping a base position to watch the show ETH oscillating after hitting a key integer level is actually normal
I think the most awkward thing about ETH right now is not that it can't go up, but that its narrative is harder to explain in one sentence than BTC's. BTC talks about reserve, ETFs, anti-dilution, which the market easily understands; ETH has to cover on-chain revenue, L2, staking, institutional ETFs, application recovery—all of which can add value but also potentially hold it back
So when ETH rises, the market gets excited; when it oscillates, doubts come quickly. Because everyone is asking: Are we buying asset value this round, or buying into ecosystem recovery?
I will pay more attention to whether real on-chain demand is keeping up. Only when usage heats up will ETH's rise stop feeling like a "late catch-up rally"
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Option 1 — Strong & Natural
Bitcoin may be warming up for something much bigger. 👀
Here’s the setup worth watching:
ISM Manufacturing just hit 55.6 Russell 2000 just pushed above 3,000 and hit an ATH
These two signals lined up before major crypto expansions in 2016 and 2020.
In 2025, the setup never really appea below 50.
Now it’s back.
BTC breaking above $80K could be more than just another rally. It might be the early stage of a much bigger move toward new all-time highs.
#DailyOrbit BTC: In this bull market, the target price is at least 150,000-180,000. In the previous cycle, after breaking through 69,000, it continued to rise about 50% to 126,000. Based on this ratio, a conservative estimate for the increase after breaking the previous high this round is about 30%, which is also 150,000, with institutional consensus capping at 180,000. This is something we can manually calculate. With this target, the bottom-fishing mentality becomes more assured, and people dare to buy th$BTC News and capital flow dual-dimensional assessment: Is 79000 an accumulation zone or a downward continuation?
BTC is currently fluctuating around 79000, with volume gradually shrinking after falling back from 81270. Considering both news and capital flow, the area around 79000 leans more towards a capital absorption zone rather than a simple downward continuation.
On the news front, institutional entry channels continue to improve, and expectations of loose liquidity also support risk assets. From the capital perspective, some smart money continues to place orders around 78000, showing a bullish strategy of "adding on pullbacks, reducing on rallies," making 78500-78000 an important short-term support zone.
Operationally, attention can be paid to the absorption situation at 78500-78000; if it stabilizes, participation can be done in batches, with key resistance above at 80000-81000; if it breaks below 77500, caution is needed for short-term structural weakening.
The short-term overall bias is bullish, but risks after breaking key support still need to be guarded against. The above is personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Haven't looked closely at $RKLB for a long time. With the US stock market closed overnight, I instead connected the token market and a few news items. Today's movement is quite interesting.
📰 News: The Neutron engine has started pre-flight testing, and the market is hopeful that a single launch could change the financial outlook; the gradual phase-out of Falcon 9 also adds uncertainty to space stocks' performance in August.
🔧 Technicals: The daily RSI has dropped to 23.3, clearly oversold; MACD shows a death cross but the green bars are shrinking; the price has simultaneously fallen below MA7 and MA25, the bearish alignment is not yet resolved, and short-term sentiment has been heavily suppressed.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 tokens are basically flat, down only 0.06%. The US stock market closure overnight means tokens lack anchoring from the underlying stocks, so volatility is more about existing funds pricing sentiment.
🎯 Today's view: I lean bullish. The oversold condition combined with Neutron approaching a critical test node makes me think the potential for a rebound is more worth watching than further decline, but due to lack of underlying stock data, I only discuss direction.
📊 Token 67.31 (-3.12%) | US stock market closed overnight
#SpaceStocks
#NeutronMaidenFlight
#USToken Ether has liquidated a large number of high-leverage long positions formed in the short term.
However, the largest liquidation will occur when the price reaches 2,550$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $BTC 🩸【BTC Meat Grinder Lab | August 26 Macro】
BTC surged to $81K this week and then started high-level consolidation, dropping about 1%–2% today. The weekly chart remains strong, but the short term has entered the **"post-rally macro validation period"**.
🏦 US Treasury: ⭐⭐⭐½
10Y Treasury yield around 4.63%, 30Y around 5.18%. Yield pullback is favorable for BTC, but long-term rates remain high.
💵 US Dollar: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Dollar Index around 98.9, overall remains slightly weak, still providing macro support for BTC.
🐳 ETF Funds: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Recently, BTC ETF funds have clearly warmed up, with institutional demand once again becoming an important support for this rally.
🏦 Fed: ⭐⭐⭐
This week's market focus remains on Jackson Hole and subsequent inflation data. If the Fed signals hawkishness, it may push yields higher, putting pressure on BTC.
🎯 BTC Macro Key Levels
🟢 Above $78K → Bullish structure maintained
🚀 Breakthrough $81K → Opens up further upside space
🔴 Below $77K → Beware of high-level pullback
☠️ Break below $75K → This rally structure clearly cools down
⭐ Today's Macro Ratings
Macro Liquidity: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Dollar Environment: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
ETF Funds: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Fed Risk: ⭐⭐⭐
High-Level Risk: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Overall: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ / 5
🩸 Today's Sharp Commentary
BTC's biggest problem now is not lack of buyers, but rising too fast.
Fiscal liquidity expectations + weak dollar + ETF inflows still support medium-term bulls; but after BTC surged past 80K, the short term has entered a phase of profit-taking and new capital competition.
"Above 80K watch the trend, 78K watch strength, 75K watch structure.
No chasing highs, no guessing tops, just wait for VWAP14 and key price confirmations."
🩸 The market is responsible for the meat grinder, we are responsible for finding the patterns.Look at BTR, this pillar is almost pulled off the screen!!!
From the daily chart, after the last rally, it has been consolidating within a range. Until this recent rally, only on-chain activity showed anomalies; everything else was purely a pump-and-dump tactic by manipulative traders. Now that it has reached the upper range, don't blindly chase longs, as it's easy to get trapped. The risk of shorting is also very high. The best approach now is to wait steadily for the trend to develop before entering!!!
Personal suggestion: You can lightly short around the current price of 0.084, targeting 0.05. If it breaks above 0.09, exit promptly!!!
【The above views are for personal reference only and do not constitute investment advice】$BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $SOL is now $97.08, down 4.52% in 24 hours, with a high of 103.16 and a low of 95.27, trading volume at 128 million, RSI at 86.2, the most overbought in the market, the surge is too strong and needs a breather.
Technical aspect: RSI 86 is indeed outrageous, short-term support at 95 for a pullback, if broken, look at 90.
But I have to remind you, don’t get carried away just by looking at net inflows. The SOL ETF cumulative net inflow breaking the 1.22 billion record is true, but about 37% of that is initial funds injected by the issuer themselves, not real retail buying; BSOL breaking 1 billion is real. Two deflation proposals (SGP-0002/0003) are in voting, aiming to double the annual deflation from 15% to 30%, which is a mid-term positive.
My thinking: hold if 95 doesn’t break, if 95 breaks, look at 90. Whether the proposals pass is something to consider later, don’t bet too heavily in advance. I see the range as 90–103. This token has high volatility; only those who can hold will profit.August 26 Jinman Gold Midday Review: Gold pulls back from highs for adjustment, look for buying opportunities on dips in the 4610-4630 range!
Gold price hit a stage high of 4696.74 before facing pressure and pulling back, latest at 4633.65, down 0.54% intraday, with an intraday high of 4673.74 and a low probing 4624.76.
After a strong rally earlier, the market has entered a high-level consolidation phase with intensified long-short battles, awaiting the PCE inflation data to determine the subsequent direction. Before the data, it is likely to remain in a range-bound digestion.
On the chart, resistance is strong at 4670-4690, with key support at 4620.
Trading advice is to buy on dips in the 4610-4630 range, targeting 4650 and 4670. Strictly control position size near key data and implement risk management.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 🔥 This might be the signal Bitcoin has been waiting for.
Let's temporarily set aside the market noise and look at these two signals that have appeared simultaneously before major crypto market expansions:
📈 The ISM Manufacturing Index just rose to 55.6
🚀 The Russell 2000 Index just broke through 3,000 points, hitting a record high
In 2016, we saw a similar combination, which was followed by the first major crypto bull market.
In 2020, this signal appeared again, and the total crypto market cap soared from about $400 billion to over $2.5 trillion.
But in 2025, this combination never really formed—the ISM stayed below 50.
And now, it’s back.
If history rhymes again, then BTC breaking $80,000 might not be the main rally yet.
This could just be the warm-up before truly entering the price discovery phase. 👀🚀
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BullRun #CryptoMarket
#DailyOrbit $HYPE HYPE $80, today is a big day — AQAv2 officially launches! $5 billion+ USDC reserves start generating yield from today, with 90% of profits fully used to buy back and burn HYPE. The first $20 million arrived on October 3rd, with an annualized buyback pressure of $135-160 million. Coinbase manages the funds, Circle handles the technology, this lineup is unbeatable.
The market rose 35% in 7 days from $58 to $80, ATH $83.3 (8/24). RSI fell back from the overbought zone to 55, MACD formed a death cross but the candlesticks still stand above MA20/50. High-level consolidation, the trend is intact.
Catalysts stacking up: Trump/CFTC compliance path, Coinbase 50x perpetual integration, Kinetiq Elysium L2 launch, Anthropic IPO pre-market trading all running on Hyperliquid. Weekly trading volume $7 billion, DeFi fees $24.63 million, the largest whale just closed a position with $45.3 million profit.
**But the $1.2 billion unlock on 8/29 is a time bomb.** 47% goes to insiders, historically three unlocks caused two crashes. AQAv2 buybacks are a long-term positive, unlocks are short-term negatives, both sides are in a tug of war.
**Still bullish but highly cautious, $80.** Hold $77-78 to confirm entry, if broken wait for $72.7. A breakout and hold above $84 targets $90→$97. Avoid heavy positions before the unlock, add after the dust settles. DOGE plunges again, speculative sentiment continues to cool down, understand the current capital logic⚠️
BTC -0.76%, ETH -0.93%, DOGE drops by 2.84%, the market's speculative sector continues to face selling pressure.
The overall market is undergoing a mild correction, but the impact on sentiment-driven coins remains strong. Approaching an important data window, capital is actively reducing risk exposure, withdrawing from high-volatility thematic assets.
Interestingly, there is a contrast on the market: very small market cap coins slightly rise against the trend, while gold also slightly declines.
On one hand, large funds are avoiding mainstream high-risk assets; on the other hand, a small amount of short-term funds are speculating on small-cap coins for short-term pulses. However, small-cap coins have very low overall trading volume and insufficient liquidity, making it very difficult to exit once the market reverses.
ETH continues to underperform BTC, indicating capital preference for Bitcoin as a safe haven. Gold weakening simultaneously also indirectly reflects that the market has not experienced a pure safe-haven flight.
This complex and fragmented market situation is most prone to misjudgment. Do not define the overall market by the rise or fall of a single coin; observe the strength and weakness of the market from multiple dimensions to reduce counter-trend operations.
$BTC
$ETH
$DOGE #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be realized?
AI super unicorn Anthropic, on the verge of filing for an IPO, has unveiled a grand vision of a "potential enterprise AI market size of up to $30 trillion," instantly igniting heated discussions in global capital markets.
Can this $30 trillion grand narrative really be converted into cold hard cash?
Grand narrative supports high valuation issuance: As it heads toward the public market, anchoring a trillion-dollar TAM is the key trump card supporting its expectation to raise funds on par with SpaceX, aiming to capture the scarcity premium of being a "pure-blood AI leader."
The real gap in commercialization: Currently, top large model companies are still deeply mired in massive computing power procurement and extremely high R&D losses. From "technological amazement" to "substantial replacement of enterprise software budgets," the commercialization conversion rate still faces rigorous testing.
Secondary market perspective shift: Wall Street's view on the AI concept has shifted from early-stage storytelling to focusing on single customer lifetime value (LTV) and computing power gross margin.
This $30 trillion vast frontier—do you think it is the inevitable future of the AI revolution, or just a valuation bubble for IPO fundraising?
#Anthropic #AI #USStocks #IPO #TechStocks #LargeModelsSometimes, you really have to trust the trendline!
This weekly "super Optimus Prime" has directly broken out of the downtrend channel that suppressed it for more than half a year.
If $57,800 is truly the bottom of this cycle, then my previous judgment on the cycle was indeed a bit slow; the bottom came faster, and the market started earlier than the traditional cycle.
The biggest change is still the ETF.
In the past, the focus was mainly on halving, on-chain supply, and retail sentiment.
Now, institutional funds have become stable marginal buyers: the bear market duration may be compressed, and the cycle bottom may be lifted.
The old indicators haven't completely failed; it's just that relying solely on the four-year cycle and extreme signals can no longer explain the current market—
ETF subscriptions, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and policy expectations are all gaining weight.
Honestly, if this cycle has already bottomed, I did miss the most comfortable segment.
I was always waiting for the "last dip," but the market kept forcing shorts out and just took off.
Missing out is definitely frustrating, but chasing a FOMO-driven buy near $80,000 to make up for that regret carries even greater risk.
The weekly breakout indicates the structure has strengthened, but it doesn't mean it will keep rising indefinitely.
Historically, similar "long-term consolidation followed by a single week rise of over 20%" scenarios have a high medium-term continuation rate, but the median maximum pullback afterward is about 14.5%.
Based on this cycle's high, the normal pullback zone is roughly between $68,000 and $72,000.
My plan is simple:
First, in the $72,000 to $74,000 range, if the trendline is retested, I will try a small position to test the waters.
Second, in the $68,000 to $70,000 range, if ETF inflows continue and the weekly chart shows a stop in the decline, I will add positions in batches.
Third, if the weekly candle closes below $65,000, I will treat it as a false breakout and stop bottom-fishing.
Fourth, if the market doesn't pull back and directly holds above $82,000, I won't chase large positions either. I'll wait for the $80,000 to $82,000 range to turn from resistance into support before considering following.
Missing the lowest point doesn't mean the entire cycle is lost.
This time, I'd rather earn less in one segment,
than lose discipline at the hottest emotional moment because of missing out. 🧘
$BTC
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Xiao Hei: A new bull market for Bitcoin has already started, and the U.S. Treasury will continue to provide liquidity!!!
Arthur Hayes wrote a long piece last night titled "Same Same But Different," but the core is actually just one thing:
Besent is following the path Yellen took in 2023—when U.S. Treasury yields get too high for the U.S. fiscal system to handle, the Treasury doesn't necessarily need the Fed to openly cut rates or do QE; the Treasury itself will start finding ways to inject liquidity into the market.
2023 is the best example. At that time, the Fed's rates were still above 5%, and it was still shrinking its balance sheet, yet Bitcoin and the Nasdaq still began a major bull run.
Xiao Hei's explanation is:
Yellen issued a large amount of short-term debt, pushing money out of the Fed's RRP from money market funds, with the RRP dropping from about $2.5 trillion to nearly $100 billion. Money moved off the Fed's balance sheet back into the circulating financial system, and risk assets began to take off.
Now Besent is facing the same problem:
U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and long-term Treasury yields are pushing into dangerous territory again.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury suddenly increased the single repurchase size for 10–30 year Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, causing yields to briefly drop and Bitcoin to rebound afterward.
But soon Treasuries were sold off again, with the 10-year yield returning to around 4.7%. The market is basically telling Besent: this amount of money isn’t enough.
So what we really need to watch next is whether the Treasury market will continue to pressure Besent to increase intervention.
Xiao Hei offers three scenarios:
The most aggressive is making 5% an effective yield cap, with unlimited repurchases if long-term yields exceed this level;
A more realistic scenario is gradually expanding Treasury buybacks while increasing short-term debt issuance;
And another option already on the table—directly using nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to buy back long-term debt.
Besent has confirmed the TGA currently holds about $940 billion, and the Treasury is studying using it to fund buybacks.
This is the most valuable part of the article for Crypto.
The U.S. now faces an increasingly difficult vicious cycle:
More debt → higher long-term rates → greater interest expenses → more borrowing needed → market demands higher yields.
If the Treasury doesn’t want this cycle to spiral out of control, it must constantly find ways to suppress long-term rates.
Every "rescue" action for Treasuries may marginally increase dollar liquidity, and Bitcoin happens to be one of the assets most sensitive to dollar liquidity in the world.
So Xiao Hei calls BTC the global liquidity smoke alarm, and I think this is a more important takeaway for Bitcoin than rate cuts.
If the future scenario is: 10-year Treasuries continue pushing toward 5% → Besent keeps expanding buybacks → TGA starts to decline → short-term debt proportion keeps rising, then don’t wait for the Fed to officially announce QE to realize liquidity has already shifted.
Xiao Hei himself disclosed heavy holdings in: BTC, ETH, ENA, ETHFI.
What he’s really betting on isn’t a sudden fundamental change in any coin, but that the U.S., to save its $40 trillion debt market, will ultimately have to re-inject liquidity into the entire financial system.