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$BTC $ETH $TRUMP Every time Trump makes a crypto-friendly move, the market seems to pump first… then suddenly dumps. So, is this really “Trump cutting leeks”? Probably not that simple. 1. Good news can become the exit signal
Trump has repeatedly shown support for crypto, from industry-friendly policies to crypto-related events and legislation. But when the market has already priced those expectations in, the official announcement can become a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” moment. 2. Wha#Remember a date: September 15, 2026
This is not a holiday, not a payday, but the life-or-death vote day for the future of the US crypto industry over the next decade.
At the beginning of the year, the market believed the CLARITY Act had an 82% chance of passing, basically a done deal, ensuring a stable bull market.
Now? Only 19.5%.
In just half a year, it went from "definitely passing" to "basically dead."
The fundamental reason for the bill being blocked is only one: Trump's $1.4 billion crypto conflict of interest.
In 2025, Trump's crypto income is $1.4 billion
TRUMP coin: $636 million
WLF financial project: nearly $800 million
Total annual income $2.2 billion, a 3.5x increase in one year, with all core growth coming from crypto. 69% of Americans and nearly half of Republicans believe: the president's private crypto interests are hijacking US policy. The Democrats are outright blocking: no vote in favor without adding ethics bans on public officials' crypto holdings.
They also publicly exposed five fatal loopholes in the bill:
Each one protects Trump’s continued crypto earnings with no real regulatory constraints.
Industry leaders bluntly say:
If this bill passes, Trump can earn another $1.4 billion.
This is the biggest hidden risk in this crypto cycle:
The current rally is betting on policy implementation.
But the real political landscape — the bill is very unlikely to pass.
September 15 will settle the dust.
Whether this crypto cycle reverses or crashes massively depends entirely on that day. Today it feels like funds in the crypto market are gradually moving from Bitcoin and Ethereum to mainstream altcoins.
Today, the old memes on Binance have basically all risen by about 20%, with pepe/doge/pengu/bome all taking off across the board.
Mainstream DeFi has also increased by more than 15%, with uni/aave/aster all performing quite well.
Including those currently at the top of the gainers list, almost all are old altcoins with strong momentum.
At this pace, it won't be long before the on-chain projects take off. If anyone thinks there are good buys, feel free to share in the comments! $BTC $500 billion AI financing plan: The next AI war begins to fight for "money"
The AI arms race has developed to the point where the bottleneck may no longer be just GPUs, HBM, and power.
There is a more practical question: where does the money come from?
NVIDIA $NVDA recently partnered with six financial giants—Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR—to establish an AI computing power financing platform, aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital specifically to support AI data centers and computing infrastructure construction.
Note, this is not NVIDIA spending $500 billion itself. It is more like turning AI computing power into an "infrastructure asset" that Wall Street can finance: tech companies handle demand, NVIDIA provides the GPU ecosystem, and financial institutions bring in long-term capital such as insurance, pensions, and private credit.
This makes me feel that AI has entered a new stage.
Especially now, with 30-year US Treasury yields still above 5%, financing costs are not low. If AI data centers really require trillions of dollars in investment in the future, what will determine how far this AI CAPEX can go may not just be technology, but whether these projects can ultimately generate enough cash flow to cover interest.
When GPUs start to be treated by Wall Street as financeable assets, the next AI war has already spread from chips to the capital markets.US Treasury borrowing to repurchase bonds finds no takers, is a bond market crash coming?
US Treasury yields continue to rise, unable to be suppressed. With mounting debt, traditional war-like debt reduction measures have minimal effect; is an interest rate cut imminent?
Last night, most of the US stock market gains were driven by base metals. The crisis has triggered panic across global capital markets. Is Bitcoin really a safe-haven asset? The Treasury borrows new debt to repay old debt—can it really hold down the 40 trillion?
This question is crucial for the mainstream market’s subsequent trend. On the surface, Bitcoin seems to have found a bottom and is moving up in sync with gold, but one factor must be considered: when a real crisis hits, what is the only thing that truly provides a sense of security? It’s not gold, not bonds, not cryptocurrencies, but cash. Institutions need to top up margin, funds face redemptions and need to return money—how will these cash gaps be filled? At high levels, only gold and Bitcoin can be sold, so this is why I say this is not a bull market rebound. Remember the 312 crash that halved prices.
The Treasury’s market rescue is a temporary fix, not a fundamental solution. US bonds can no longer fall back. Can tech stocks take over again? Will cyclical stocks and risk assets like BTC continue to spread?
Bitcoin may surge short-term, but if it cannot hold above 80000, it proves the market does not accept this measure at all. In the long term, $BTC BTC will still see a pullback. #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 There are not no crashes in a bull market; in fact, they are even more fierce!!!
Many people mistakenly believe that a bull market only goes up without falling. In reality, crashes in a bull market are often more brutal than in a bear market. Essentially, this is due to market overheating followed by concentrated liquidation of high leverage positions, which does not directly mean the end of the bull market.
During the big bull market on May 19, 2021, BTC quickly dropped from $58,000 to $38,600, with a single-day maximum drawdown exceeding 34%. Tens of billions in contract funds were liquidated, and the entire network was filled with voices claiming the bull market was over. After the shakeout, the market surged again, reaching a new all-time high of $69,000. At the same time, ETH plunged from $4,300 to $1,700, most altcoins were halved, and a large number of high-leverage accounts were completely wiped out.
In the 2024 bull market phase, $BTC spiked to $104,000 before instantly plunging to $91,000, causing billions in long position liquidations and hundreds of thousands of accounts to be liquidated. The price then quickly recovered and continued to rise, merely cleaning out short-term leveraged chips.
Sharp drops in a bull market are mostly driven by overheated on-exchange leverage, not a fundamental reversal. To judge whether the trend has ended, one must see if key weekly supports are effectively broken, whether institutional funds continue to flow out, and if long-term chips are collectively sold. Even in a bull market, it is crucial not to blindly hold high leverage positions; severe drawdowns can directly wipe out accounts.
This is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $BTC Short squeeze pulse hits triple headwinds: depreciation trades support price, but chasing longs is extremely poor value #BTC In short: This round = "fiscal/depreciation" macro narrative + 96% of shorts liquidated in a mechanical short squeeze overlay, price has deviated far from fundamental anchors. Facing triple headwinds — hawkish FOMC minutes + AI valuation warnings + spot selling bias (no US capital relay) + 1H volume contraction + options magnet below. Chasing longs is extremely poor vWatched $INTC all night, the underlying stock is closed over the weekend, but the token itself has already dropped more than four points. This market is weaker than I expected.
📰 News: Intel's recent stock issuance reportedly oversubscribed by over $100 billion, with the final scale possibly exceeding $20 billion, supply pressure is evident; Masayoshi Son holds 67% but didn't buy a single share last quarter, institutional confidence isn't as strong as they claim.
🔧 Technical: Daily RSI14 pressed down to 30.5, already weak; MACD death cross with expanding green bars; price has broken below MA7 and MA25; 7/25 moving averages are diverging bearish. I generally don't bet against this structure.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens only fell 0.42% over the weekend, but INTC token dropped 4.61%, clearly underperforming the market. Thin liquidity during US market closure amplified sentiment.
🎯 Today's view: I'm bearish today. No signs of technical rebound, plus large issuance supply pressure from news. Token premium at -1.39% is not cheap; it's the token market preemptively discounting the stock's reopening price.
📊 Token 88.82 (-4.61%) | Stock 90.07 (-2.24%) | Premium -1.39% | US stock market closed over the weekend
#USStockTokens
#SemiconductorSector
#SOXLFutures Stopped cycles, what are the additional revaluation conditions that go beyond the already reflected meme value rankings of remaining options? The original text lists the market capitalizations of DOGE at $13 billion, SHIB at $3.7 billion, and BONK at $280 million, along with their respective survival histories of 4, 2, and 1 cycles, observing changes in the meme coin hierarchy. The key point here is not a simple market cap comparison, but that the number of survival cycles represents the 'persistence of verified capital.' DOGE has undergone multiple liquidity collapses and recoveries, forming fixed positions within certain capital tiers, while SHIB has confirmed this in one more risk appetite phase. BONK has yet to pass through a second cycle and remains unverified. This structure has important implications from the perspective of capital behavior. In phases where risk appetite contracts, capital retreats to verified liquidity pools (DOGE, SHIB), and in expansion phases, it moves to new narratives (BONK). In other words, the meme coin hierarchy acts as a gauge to measure the market's liquidity stages. At the current point, DOGE is#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元
If the large-scale buyback by SK Hynix a few days ago was signaling to the market that "AI-generated profits are starting to be returned to shareholders," then Samsung has now taken this logic to a new level.
Samsung Electronics has officially approved its 2026 shareholder return plan, expected to reach 90 trillion to 110 trillion KRW, approximately $65 billion to $80 billion, setting a new record for South Korean companies. This scale is about five times Samsung's previous record set in 2020. (Samsung Global Newsroom)
One detail to note here:
This is not simply an "$80 billion stock buyback."
The entire plan includes cash dividends, stock buybacks, and cancellations among other methods. Samsung plans to distribute about 30 trillion KRW in cash dividends in Q3, with the remaining amount to be finalized in January 2027 based on full-year performance; meanwhile, the board has approved about 15 trillion KRW for stock buybacks related to employee compensation. (Samsung Global Newsroom)
But rather than focusing on the specific methods, I am more interested in why Samsung dares to offer such a massive shareholder return at this point in time.
The answer still comes back to the cash flow generated by AI.
Demand for HBM, DRAM, and the entire AI data center supply chain has transformed the storage industry from a typically cyclical sector into one with exceptionally strong profits and cash flow. Samsung has previously committed to using 50% of its cumulative free cash flow from 2024 to 2026 for shareholder returns, and now it is effectively starting to realize the profits generated by this AI cycle for shareholders. (Samsung es)
What’s even more interesting is that Samsung is not an isolated case.
SK Hynix just announced a 40 trillion KRW stock buyback and cancellation plan this week, followed immediately by Samsung’s announcement of up to 110 trillion KRW in shareholder returns. (WSAU)
Therefore, I believe a significant valuation logic shift is occurring in the South Korean semiconductor sector:
In the past, the market bought Samsung and Hynix mainly betting on rising memory prices → profit growth → valuation recovery.
But if the high profits brought by AI can be sustained, and companies start continuously returning cash to shareholders through dividends + buybacks + cancellations, then the market is no longer just trading a memory cycle, but rather:
Profit growth + free cash flow growth + share capital contraction + increased shareholder returns.
The combination of these four factors is what can truly change the long-term valuation baseline.
Of course, the biggest risk now is very clear—the market has already started pricing memory companies based on the "AI supercycle" logic.
If future AI capital expenditures slow down, or if HBM supply and demand shift back to oversupply, then the currently abundant free cash flow could also rapidly decline.
So the real question going forward is no longer:
Can Samsung come up with $80 billion?
But rather:
Does Samsung and SK Hynix’s willingness to return cash on such a large scale now mean that management believes this AI memory cycle will last longer than the market expects?
If the answer is yes, then this semiconductor rally may be far from simply a "cycle peak."#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Gold breaks through $4600, bond safe-haven status challenged
Gold has once again broken through $4600, but what truly deserves attention in this rally is not the gold price itself, but the market's redefinition of what constitutes a “safe-haven asset.”
As of the latest trading, spot gold rose to about $4636/oz, up approximately 4.5% for the week. The direct catalyst for this rally was the U.S. Treasury's announcement to expand long-term Treasury repurchase operations, aiming to ease pressure on long-term yields. After the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and gold quickly attracted capital. (The Wall Street Journal)
But here lies an interesting contradiction:
In the past, when market risks emerged, capital often flowed simultaneously into the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and gold; now, a different structure is emerging—the risks the market worries about actually stem from the U.S. fiscal and debt system itself.
This means that when investors worry about U.S. debt levels, fiscal deficits, and long-term financing costs, U.S. Treasuries can no longer serve as an absolute safe-haven as they once did. The Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations can temporarily improve liquidity and suppress yields, but on the other hand, this active intervention prompts the market to rethink: why do long-term bonds need policy support to stabilize?
Currently, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.6%, and the 30-year yield has once again surpassed 5%, indicating that the bond market's real concerns about long-term fiscal issues have not disappeared. (Investopedia)
Therefore, I believe the most important logic behind this gold rally is actually a repricing between credit assets and non-credit assets.
Gold pays no interest and generates no cash flow, but its greatest feature is that it corresponds to no one's liability. U.S. Treasuries are completely different; they are fundamentally based on the U.S. government's future debt repayment ability and the credit of the dollar.
When the market's concern shifts from ordinary economic recession to debt expansion, monetary purchasing power, and fiscal sustainability, gold's “no yield” actually becomes an advantage.
This also explains a very noteworthy recent phenomenon:
Gold and BTC are rising simultaneously, while the dollar is under pressure.
These two assets have completely different natures but are trading on the same underlying logic—the market is starting to price in “currency depreciation” and fiscal risk. (Financial Times)
Of course, this does not mean U.S. Treasuries will lose their status as the world's core safe-haven asset. The depth, liquidity, and global reserve attributes of the dollar system remain difficult to replace.
But at least this rally tells us:
When risks come from within the financial system, bonds may no longer be the best safe harbor.
Next, I will focus on whether gold can hold above $4600 and whether long-term U.S. Treasury yields can truly fall. If gold continues to rise while the 30-year yield remains high, it may mean the market is trading not just rate cuts but a deeper U.S. fiscal credit premium.
What do you think will truly compete with U.S. Treasuries for the status of “global safe-haven asset” in the future—gold or BTC? #BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain?
This round of BTC's rise is no longer just an ordinary technical rebound.
In the past week, Bitcoin quickly surged from around $60,000, once approaching $80,000, with a weekly increase of over 20%. What’s more noteworthy is that this rise was accompanied by a clear coordination of spot capital: from Monday to Thursday this week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of about $1.6 billion, with Thursday alone reaching about $606 million, marking the highest single-day inflow since May. (The Wall Street Journal)
So now, when I judge BTC’s strength or weakness, I don’t put price first; instead, I first look at whether the capital flow can keep up with the price.
Because short-term rises can be driven by short covering and sentiment, but to truly turn a rebound into a trend, there must be continuous new capital support. Now that BTC can continuously break through previous resistance and ETF funds are accelerating inflows again, this is one of the biggest differences between this rally and previous weak rebounds.
But there is also a point to be cautious about:
The price has already started to trade ahead of expectations for improved liquidity.
After the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repos, the dollar came under clear pressure, and BTC and gold simultaneously became beneficiaries of this "currency depreciation trade"; meanwhile, improved regulatory expectations and short covering further amplified the upward slope. In other words, BTC’s rise now is not driven by a single logic but by the resonance of ETF funds + dollar weakness + liquidity expectations + short squeeze simultaneously. (Financial Times)
Once this resonance forms, the trend is often stronger than imagined; but the problem is exactly here—when multiple positives are priced in simultaneously, the market’s demand for subsequent capital inflows becomes increasingly high.
What I’m most focused on next is not whether BTC can instantly break through $80,000, but two signals:
First, whether ETF net inflows can continue to hold at a high level.
Second, whether spot buying will continue to support BTC on pullbacks after a breakout.
If capital continues to flow in, then pullbacks are more likely just rotations within a strong trend; but if the price keeps hitting new highs while ETF funds start to decline, beware of a divergence between price and capital flow.
So the real question now is not:
"How much more can BTC rise?"
But rather:
"Who is still buying, and how long can they keep buying?"
The trend has already strengthened, but what ultimately determines the height of this rally is the real capital continuously entering the market.
Do you think this BTC rally has entered a new trend, or is it just a large rebound driven by liquidity? $BTC $SPCX SPCX 135.62, Starship completed a 60-second static fire test. A technical breakthrough of this level half a year ago might have triggered a big bullish candle. But today SPCX barely moved, dropping from 137 to 135. When good news comes but the price doesn't rise, it indicates the core issue for this asset right now isn't "technical progress" but rather "unlocking expectations." 😅
SAR=136.54 overhead, EMA21=137.25, EMA55=137.83, all three lines are above the price, forming a resistance zone. RSI6=41.07, neither high nor low; KDJ's J value=82.05, K=69.43, D=63.13, just formed a golden cross—but the price is being suppressed by the moving averages, so the effectiveness of this golden cross is questionable. BOLL middle band at 137.10, upper band 142.69, lower band 131.50, price is near the lower band, indicating short-term rebound demand, but the rebound space is limited by the middle band and moving average resistance.
The successful Starship static fire test shows SpaceX's technical progress is still advancing as planned. But the price of the SPCX contract has been weighed down by "unlocking expectations" for too long—no matter what news comes out, as long as the shadow of unlocking remains, the price will struggle to truly strengthen.
Comment below, do you think SPCX can hold 130? Or will it break below the lower band and continue downward? My account is still short, but I'm curious about your views. 🫡
Technical breakthroughs are real breakthroughs, but contract structure is another matter. SpaceX's fundamentals are solid, but SPCX's contract structure has unlocking issues. When fundamentals and contract structure conflict, the market usually resolves the contract structure issue first before considering fundamentals. If you disagree, bring it on, show your trades. 😅Gold Breaks 4600 and Dalio's Debt Reduction: Non-Sovereign Assets Are Disrupting Traditional Safe-Haven Logic
Spot gold has surged past the $4600 mark, and Bridgewater's Dalio has publicly recommended reducing government bond allocations in favor of increasing gold and a small amount of Bitcoin. This signals that the traditional 60/40 stock-bond balanced model is facing systemic failure.
Why is the safe-haven aura of bonds fading? As fiscal deficits in major global economies repeatedly hit new highs and interest expenses approach military spending levels, the credit core of fiat currencies is continuously diluted. The surge in gold trading has never been driven by short-term interest rate cuts but is the ultimate hedge against the long-term purchasing power depreciation of the fiat system.
What is even more thought-provoking is the alliance between Bitcoin and gold. They are not a zero-sum game but both belong to non-sovereign hard assets that require no endorsement from any single government credit. Gold is a physical consensus accumulated over thousands of years and a ballast stone for central banks, while Bitcoin is a digital elastic asset with 24/7 global liquidity and an absolutely fixed total supply.
In the current asset allocation strategy, the most reasonable framework is to build a foundational inflation hedge with gold, use a moderate proportion of Bitcoin to capture liquidity premium and explosive potential, while firmly suppressing long-term credit government bonds with negative real yields.
Facing the macro upheaval of gold breaking $4600, do you now favor gold, Bitcoin, or continue to steadfastly hold traditional government bonds?
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 Broadcom plans to set up an SPV to raise $60 billion and provide guarantees up to $100 billion, converting AI computing power capital expenditures into off-balance-sheet credit leverage. The core market contradiction lies in the efficiency of downstream commercialization catching up with interest costs.
Blackstone and Apollo are negotiating participation in a $30 billion subordinated debt issuance, indicating that credit risk is beginning to spread to the private capital market. This leverage model transmits risk by suppressing overall market risk appetite; if credit spreads widen, institutional long positions will force overvalued tech stocks out.
The factors driving $AVGO's valuation are ranked as follows: the actual issuance interest rate of the SPV subordinated debt, the cash flow coverage ability of downstream client Anthropic, and the cost transmission caused by high guarantees affecting the parent company's rating.
The upside scenario triggers when debt financing costs are controlled at expected low levels. If the SPV debt is oversubscribed and spreads narrow, market risk appetite for the computing power industry chain will rebound, and exit funds will flow back; once implicit guarantees exceed the $100 billion cap, this upside logic immediately fails.
The downside scenario triggers when market inflation expectations rebound, raising bond issuance costs. If high-yield bond spreads widen significantly, this $60 billion debt will increase implicit leverage ratios, inducing institutional positions to concentrate withdrawals from high-leverage targets; if downstream AI applications generate strong cash flow, this downside scenario ends.
The critical point for judging leverage loop risk is whether the $30 billion subordinated debt accounts for more than 50% of total financing. Excessive subordinated debt proportion will directly accelerate credit risk transmission to the parent company's balance sheet, triggering market revaluation of valuation multiples.
In the next 7 days, close attention should be paid to Blackstone and Apollo's final pricing interest rate for the SPV debt structure and the direction of high-yield credit spread changes.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元Solana’s move from a 400ms to 350ms target slot time is more than a speed upgrade; it is an early test of whether performance gains can compound without narrowing the validator set. Lower wait times may improve trading, payments and onchain apps, while the 300ms phase on testnet and devnet signals a staged path toward 200ms.
The key evidence now is operational: skipped-slot rates, validator costs and node performance. If those remain controlled as slots shorten, faster execution could support greater usage and onchain revenue. If not, the bottleneck will have shifted from users to infrastructure. Not advice, just analysis.
#SolanaCutsSlotsTo350msOvernight, this wave of $BTC short squeeze, those who understand know: it surged from 64K to nearly 69K in one night, $ETH even stronger with +17%, over 90% of the 24h volume was short positions getting liquidated. From a narrative perspective, this isn’t a "bull comeback" sparked by some positive news, but a "devaluation trade" driven by a weaker dollar + Treasury expanding bond buybacks + US debt surpassing 40 trillion, with $BTC just being revalued alongside gold and silver. This macro liquid$PUMP Smart money begins to diverge.
At 05:11 UTC, a whale with a ranking score of 72 opened a new long position of about 300k USD, currently holding a position of about 390k USD with an unrealized profit of about 90k USD, and continues to place buy orders of about 200k USD at 0.00327-0.00337.
Another wallet with a score of 84 still holds about 248k USD core long position, with an unrealized profit of about 149k USD, and about 80% of the position is layered for take profit at 0.0053-0.0126.
However, a swing wallet with a score of 75 opened a new short position of about 51k USD at 06:50 UTC and placed additional short orders of about 120k USD.
Long-term profit positions have not exited, new whales are adding at pullback levels, while swing funds are starting to go against the trend. This is not a unanimous bullish view, but a stratification of risk appetite. $SPCX's trend next week won't be very volatile
It might even oscillate back and forth between the 120-130 range.!
Why? The buying pressure on Friday was too strong, meaning the hype is gone
It opened dropping to 131, then pulled back to 137, just exchanging hands within this range
The 24-hour spot trading volume is only over 2 billion, no one is buying anymore
Plus, the crypto market is booming, the stock market is sluggish, Tesla is pulling the market, and SPCX is sideways
AI concept stocks are about to have their biggest project IPO, causing capital diversion
Even if SPCX's space program launches rockets every day, it won't help
Funds are chaotic now, some buying AI, some developing but losing money before making profits
Observers want to pick up cheap chips, while those going long are getting liquidated. What would you choose 22/08/2026 | The Crypto & Macro Analysis Hashtag #SamsungPayoutUpTo80B is becoming one of the featured topics on OKX Orbit, with over 350,000 views. But if we only look at this as the story of "Samsung returned $80 billion to shareholders", we are missing the most important part. Behind this huge number is a bigger story: AI is turning semiconductor industry profits into real cash flow, and large businesses are starting to move from the capital injection phase to the stage of one-part distribution$BTC around 77K, $ETH around 2.4K — macro tailwinds are resonating
$BTC is currently holding near $77,000, while $ETH remains stable around $2,400. Multiple macro factors are gradually turning favorable for risk assets.
The U.S. Treasury's bond buybacks help ease yield pressure and improve market liquidity, while a weaker dollar further boosts demand for scarce assets like $BTC.
Meanwhile, institutional inflows are heating up again. This week, spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached about $1.6 billion, with a single-day inflow of approximately $606 million, indicating a clear rebound in investor demand.
Additionally, market expectations of a more dovish Fed policy shift, improvements in crypto regulatory environment, and short squeezes are all further amplifying upward momentum.
The macro environment is becoming more favorable, but continued ETF inflows and liquidity improvements remain key to confirming the strength of this rally.
#DailyOrbit Intraday rapid pullback on August 22: BTC spiked down breaking below $77,000, ETH lost the $2,400 level, and SOL plunged nearly 11.5% in a single day.
Data layer shows brutal liquidation: $523 million liquidated across the network in 1 hour, totaling $1.801 billion in 24 hours, with 286,000 traders forcibly liquidated. The main liquidation force was $448 million long positions.
1. This drop was not triggered by any sudden negative news; it was a "reverse leverage stampede after a short squeeze."
The complete cause-and-effect chain is clear:
1. Overextended upward momentum
From August 19 to 21, the market completed an epic $3 billion short squeeze. BTC violently surged from 64,000 to above 77,000 in just a few days, with a weekly gain exceeding 23%. Many traders were swept up by the rally, piling on high-leverage long positions at the top, resulting in extremely crowded long positions. The core driver of this rally was passive short covering, not continuous inflow of spot incremental funds, so the upward base was inherently fragile.
2. Momentum naturally waned upon hitting strong resistance
As the price approached the psychological $80,000 mark, profit-taking began. A slight pullback directly broke through many long positions’ maintenance margin lines, triggering forced liquidations at market price. Sell orders penetrated multiple layers of buy walls, causing a cascading long liquidation stampede.
3. Weekend liquidity vacuum amplified volatility
On Saturday, European and American institutional trading desks and market makers largely closed, thinning order book depth significantly. The same sell pressure caused amplified price drops. Minor pullbacks on regular days turned into deep spike-down crashes in the low-liquidity weekend environment.
2. Key dividing point: $77,000 is the watershed of this rally structure
1) Holding the $77,000 range
The short squeeze rally structure remains intact and this is just a healthy leverage cleanup after overbuying. Most weekend volatility was noise caused by liquidity disruption. Once institutional funds return during Monday’s US stock session and order book depth recovers, the market can resume high-level consolidation and still has the ability to retest the $80,000 level.
2) A decisive volume-backed break below $77,000
The long structure signals a phase of weakness. The next core demand support zone is $74,000–$75,000. This range is a key chip concentration area for this rally, the short-term long cost center, and a strong lifeline support band for this rebound. If this zone is lost, the short squeeze rally will be completely over, opening the door to a deeper correction.
3. Practical core reminders
1) Do not interpret the weekend liquidity crash as a trend reversal signal. Weekend spikes have greatly reduced reference value; final judgment must wait for institutional funds to return during the Monday European and American sessions;
2) For previously heavily leveraged long positions at the top, set tiered risk controls based on the $77,000 and $75,000 defense lines to avoid small pullbacks turning into deep traps;
3) Strictly avoid bottom fishing on the left side now. Wait for liquidity to return, support to stabilize, and the liquidation wave to fully subside before considering buying the dip;
4) SOL and ETH have fallen much more than BTC, reflecting their altcoin high-beta nature. This round is a leverage-linked sell-off; do not blindly countertrade small coins alone.
Summary:
This is not a fundamental bear market or triggered by major negative news. It is an inevitable cleanup caused by rapid short squeeze → high-level leverage clustering → weekend liquidity exhaustion. The fate of $77,000 will determine the overall tone of the market this week.
#BTC continues strong, can capital flow sustain?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Trader DogZongI feel like this wave of price increase is driven by the Federal Reserve's policy, kind of like when Xi Jinping talked about blockchain on the 7 PM news in 2019, and then Bitcoin surged nearly 50% to $10,000, followed by high-level oscillation and a sharp drop. It's too similar 🤒🤒🤒🤒#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
Don't be misled by "Labubu cooling off." THE MONSTERS generated 4.45 billion in the first half, accounting for 26%, still the top IP (company interim report), but the growth rate has returned from explosive to normal — it's a slowdown, not a collapse. It's natural for growth to slow down after a large base; the 4.45 billion scale shows the foundation remains solid.
I couldn't find the "7.5% decline" figure in the official financial report; the wording doesn't match the company's original text, so please refer to the interim report for citations. Labubu even appeared at the World Cup opening ceremony and the Paris and Tokyo tours, expanding its international influence; the price adjustment in the secondary market actually indicates supply catching up and scalpers retreating, which may not be bad for the brand in the long term.
It has changed from the "only super engine" to "first but slowing down," which is actually a healthy sign: the company no longer relies solely on a single IP. What really matters is whether the Star People can take over and whether the next hit can emerge. The risk of a single IP is decreasing, and the resilience of the portfolio is increasing, which is a more mature business model.
For investors, Labubu's story is shifting from "high growth" to "cash cow," and the valuation logic should follow. The slowdown is not the end but a necessary stage for POPMART to move from hit-driven to IP matrix-driven. Mature IPs provide cash flow, new IPs provide flexibility, and a portfolio is more stable than betting on just one.
$POPMART The White House discussing buying BTC sparks a lot of imagination, but it's also the easiest for the market to overinterpret.
I would break it down into two layers: the first layer is how the U.S. government manages BTC it already holds or has seized; the second layer is actively using fiscal resources to buy BTC. The former is more like asset management, while the latter is a real change in sovereign allocation.
It's normal for the market to get excited because once a national balance sheet seriously starts discussing BTC, it is no longer just a risky asset on exchanges but is placed on the table of reserves, finance, regulation, and geopolitical finance.
But the bigger the narrative, the more details need to be confirmed. What truly changes the market is not just a mention in a meeting, but how budgets, legal authorizations, custody rules, and execution paths are implemented.
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC $BTC's current funding rate has turned positive, with longs starting to pay shorts, but it is not yet extreme.
I am watching for three signals:
Funding rate continuously rising;
Futures open interest growing faster than spot;
Price falling back to the original consolidation zone.
If all three occur simultaneously, it indicates that the uptrend may be turning into crowded trading.$BTC just went through a round of violent squeeze, and the short-term has already started to gap open
Currently, it seems today is not a day to chase the rally, but a high-volatility harvesting window on the second day of the sharp pullback
The latest reading of the Fear and Greed Index is 70 (Greed), corresponding to a price of about 77,952
This indicates that after sampling the index, the price has dropped another step
Looking at the mainstream tokens in the market, none seem very suitable for short-term trading
Tokens like $SOL are only suitable as a market filter; the previous low-price longs have already exited, so no consideration to re-enter positions at that time
After looking around, I chose $ZEC
$ZEC meets three conditions simultaneously:
1. Sufficient volatility (15-minute ATR about 23.8 USDT, approximately 3%)
2. Sufficient order book depth (OKX open interest about 105 million USD, 24-hour base currency volume about 217 million ZEC)
3. Structure just changed (At 08:15 UTC, a high-volume bearish candle smashed from 822 down to 782, 15-minute RSI dropped from 62.3 to 48.3)
News side also shows a 5-minute flash crash record of -3.47%, indicating large orders have started to fight each other rather than a one-sided move without retracement.
$ZEC has a long-short ratio of only 0.33 on OKX accounts; shorts are extremely crowded. If there is a rebound, it will be very strong. Preparing to short above 800
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 Why is $BTC surging sharply while altcoins are all playing dead? There's just one core reason: Wall Street money only recognizes infrastructure like bitcoin, ethereum, solana, hyperliquid, etc.
1. ETF monopolizes buying: This rally is driven by institutional spot ETF buying; money only flows into mainstream coins, altcoins get nothing.
2. Risk-averse clustering: Macro uncertainties remain, funds treat BTC as digital gold and don't dare to spread into high Beta small coins.
3. Altcoins lack narrative: Without new memes or sector catalysts, funds have no reason to rotate, so staying flat is safest.
4. Liquidity stratification: Big money only recognizes BTC's depth; small coins can't handle the volume, so they just can't be pumped.
My judgment: This is not a bull market, it's a one-man show of BTC and mainstream coins squeezing shorts. For altcoins to move, ETF funds need to spill over or new narratives must emerge—don't try to bottom-fish junk coins now, wait for signals. 🔥 This round of BTC surge is not just "crypto community hype," it's triggered by US Treasury bonds first. $BTC
Many are confused: What does the US Treasury's long-term bond buyback have to do with me holding coins?
Explained in three layers:
The Treasury increased the 10–30 year bond buyback scale from 2 billion per round to over 4 billion, effectively providing a "backstop" for the long bond market, causing long-term yields to drop from around 5.3% to below 5.2%.
When yields fall, the "risk-free return" on dollar assets decreases, so money seeks higher elasticity but riskier assets—gold, Bitcoin, and US tech stocks all get lifted together.
At this point, add the signal of Trump meeting Coinbase and Ripple executives + progress on the CLARITY Act. BTC, which had a lot of shorts building up near 60,000, got ignited → liquidated → rose again → liquidated again, clearing 3 billion USD shorts in 24 hours.
So the underlying logic of this surge is:
"US Treasury buybacks → yields fall → dollar eases a bit → risk assets rise → crypto shorts get squeezed → acceleration in price rise."
As for whether it can hold 80,000?
Just watch two things: whether ETFs are still net buying, and whether the CLARITY Act is really moving in the Senate. If either collapses, 72,000 will be the "test of quality." $BTC 【Why I Haven't Taken Action These Past Two Days】
My trading logic has always been simple:
【Don't chase the rally or panic sell; try to buy when no one is interested and sell when the crowd is loud.】
These past two days, I've repeatedly reminded that the market's FOMO sentiment is too strong, and a pullback will come sooner or later. If I really chase, I will only wait until Monday to see if there's an opportunity to enter a long position after the morning session's shakeout ends.
【The target for the long position is first set at 82800.】
📊 【Market Performance This Week】
From 8.17 to 8.21, data sourced from Binance:
Gold once broke through $4,690, with a maximum increase of about 6.2%;
BTC once approached $79,200, with a maximum increase of about 26%;
ETH once reached about $2,447, with a maximum increase of about 30.4%.
The recent rise in gold and crypto cannot be separated from changes in U.S. Treasury yields.
Besides crypto and gold, I've also been watching U.S. stocks these days. After the S&P hit a new high, I originally thought the Nasdaq would continue to rise. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent announced on August 19 an expansion of the Treasury's old debt repurchase program.
Starting September 9, 2026, the liquidity support repurchase limit for nominal 10–30 year Treasury bonds will increase from 【up to $2 billion per operation】 to 【at least $4 billion per operation】.
An increase of at least $2 billion each time, a growth of at least 100%. Between September 9 and November 4, seven long-term Treasury repurchase operations are scheduled, divided into two maturity intervals.
This set of operations has indeed suppressed Treasury yields in the short term, and some funds will shift to non-yielding but more flexible assets like gold and BTC.
But the problem is, yields dropped on August 19 but rebounded again on August 21.
So I tend to believe: 【The upward trend of U.S. Treasury yields remains the big picture; temporary policy news can only ease it, not solve the fundamental problem.】
If capital becomes increasingly cautious about U.S. Treasury credit and rising yields, gold and crypto may continue to absorb some of the outflow.
After this long-term low consolidation during the bear market, crypto has finally been discovered by more people as possibly being consistently undervalued—at least I wasn't the first to find out.
📌 【Back to trading, I only watch the charts and wait for structure】
Since the price has already broken out of the consolidation range, don't stubbornly wish for "one last dip."
【I will short, but only when there is a short structure; I will also go long, but only after a pullback.】
For contract traders, there's really no need to obsess daily over whether it's a bull or bear market. Bull markets can still pull back 30%, and bear markets can still have strong rebounds.
The real question is: 【Can your position size and stop loss withstand the pressure?】
Unless you only hold spot, like Myanmar A players who insist on buying low and selling high. Then you can't say you've lost, just temporarily trapped, waiting to break even.
The above content is only personal market analysis and trading thought records, not any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation. #Gold breaks through $4600, bond safe-haven status challenged
The boss has something to say
Gold directly surged past $4600 on Friday afternoon. Spot gold hit a high of 4602.04, a three-month high. New York futures were even stronger, breaking through 4650. It rose 5% this week, climbing from 4000 to 4600 since August, an increase of over 13%. Silver also exploded in tandem, once approaching the $70 mark.
Four forces pushing simultaneously
First, the dollar is weakening. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 59% to about 35%, while the CME probability of no change rose to 65%. When the dollar weakens, gold’s pricing effect directly pushes it higher.
Second, U.S. Treasuries are collapsing. The 30-year yield hit 5.337% on Tuesday, the highest since 2007. The Treasury Department took emergency action on Wednesday, doubling the size of long-term bond buybacks, increasing operations from $2 billion to $4 billion for 10- to 30-year bonds. The effect lasted only one day; on Friday, the 30-year yield returned to 5.273%. UBS clearly explained that Treasury buybacks are not QE; they can’t print money to buy bonds, so all buybacks must find funds elsewhere, likely by issuing more short-term debt. This only changes debt duration, not the total amount.
Third, central banks are buying. According to World Gold Council data, the People’s Bank of China increased gold holdings by 20 tons in July, the largest single-month purchase since October 2023, extending the consecutive monthly buying streak to 21 months. The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR, holdings rose back to 1034.65 tons, up 35 tons from the July 17 low of 999.02 tons. Domestically, 53 gold-themed funds’ total assets exceeded 420 billion yuan, up 26.8 billion yuan since the start of the month.
Fourth, Dalio sounded the alarm. The Bridgewater founder directly recommended underweighting bonds, increasing gold allocation to 10%-15% of portfolios, and holding a small amount of Bitcoin. He calculated that the U.S. government’s revenue this year is 5.5 trillion, spending 7.5 trillion, a 2 trillion gap, with interest payments close to 1 trillion, and 10 trillion debt waiting to be refinanced. Without changes, a debt crisis could erupt in about three years.
What this means for crypto
Gold and Bitcoin surged simultaneously this week, with overlapping logic. Bitcoin rose from 64,000 to over 77,000, a 23% weekly gain, the largest since March 2023. Buyers on both sides are trading the same thing—the weakening of U.S. dollar credit and the repricing of non-sovereign assets.
But the differences are clear. Gold buyers are central banks and institutional allocators, while Bitcoin’s buying includes a large portion of short-covering. Nearly 190,000 people were liquidated globally, with $1.236 billion in short liquidations. The short squeeze accounts for a significant portion.
Market operations
All Bitcoin and Ethereum long positions have been closed, locking in profits. The main wave of this short squeeze rally has been captured; no chasing the rally now, waiting for a pullback. Watch if the 75,000 to 76,000 range can hold; if a low-volume retracement doesn’t break it, then buy back in. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Gold’s rise is gold’s business; Bitcoin’s rhythm still depends on liquidity and regulatory narratives. SPCX’s base position remains steady, profits are sufficient. Storage will be considered after the pullback is in place.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.The most dangerous signal in a bull market is not a crash, but when everyone starts to get optimistic
There is an old saying in the crypto world: the market always rises amid doubt and ends in euphoria.
Recently, the market has been strengthening continuously, with BTC, ETH, SOL, and SUI rising in turn. Many people have started saying "buy anything and make money." But experience tells me that when more and more people believe there is no risk, the market is more likely to enter a phase of intense volatility.
I don't become pessimistic just because the market is rising; instead, I start paying attention to a few details: whether trading volume continues to expand, whether funds are flowing from mainstream coins to high-risk altcoins, and whether market sentiment is overheated. If these signals appear simultaneously, caution is needed.
Those who truly make money don't always sell at the highest point but execute their plans within their satisfactory profit range. Greed will cause profits to be given back, discipline is what preserves gains.
The bull market is still ongoing, but that doesn't mean every day is an opportunity. Sometimes, less trading and more waiting is also part of trading.
If funds continue to rotate next, who do you think will become the focus in the next phase: ETH, OKB, SOL, or SUI? Feel free to share your judgment in the comments.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #SUI #OKB #欧意星球 @热门话题 A 23% surge in a single week, BTC approaches 80,000—AI sees more than just "rising" Brothers, this week's market is worth writing in textbooks. From 64,000 to 79,500, BTC rose about 23% this week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023. Overnight, the market shifted from a "sideways five-week pattern" to a "brutal short squeeze" mode. What happened? Three things were triggered simultaneously. First, Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, and other crypto companies at the White House, publicly urging the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act as soon as possible and confirming the U.S. government's strategic direction to continue increasing its Bitcoin holdings. The shift in policy expectations is the fundamental force behind this rally. Second, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double the size of long-term Treasury repurchases from $2 billion to $4 billion. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged, and risk appetite quickly rebounded. Improved macro liquidity expectations provide a second boost for BTC. Third, over the past three days, total short liquidations in the crypto market amounted to about $4.5 billion, with Bitcoin shorts alone seeing $2.5 billion in losses. Short squeeze creates a typical "self-reinforcing" rally—prices rise→ short positions close→ passive buying→ prices continue to rise. This is the most direct catalyst for this market rally. But this round of rally has already undergone subtle changes. Early this morning, BTC quickly fell from a high of $79,500 to around 76,500, plunging 1.42% in 15 minutes. 4-hour RSI overbought, ADX surged to 87.I think this momentum is about to run out.
From 64,000 to 78,000, it relied on the Treasury's repurchase easing + nearly 1 billion swept by ETFs in three days + shorts being squeezed for 2.7 billion, a short squeeze created by these three forces.
But the shorts have been mostly liquidated this time; ETF inflows were 517 million on the 19th and shrank to 103 million on the 20th, showing that follow-up funds have clearly thinned out. The 4-hour RSI is 93, daily RSI 83; this kind of overbought condition is not the start of a new bull market but the fool's zone at the end of a short squeeze.
Just now, in those few minutes of flash crash, $BTC dropped 2.85%, $ETH dropped 5.72%, $XRP dropped 21%. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 1.49 billion USD, mostly long positions.
This pattern is a typical squeeze of shorts first, then killing longs — shorts were liquidated in the past two days, now profit-taking and thin liquidity spikes are cutting down the chasing longs. It's a double kill of longs and shorts, but the order is shorts die first, longs die later; the manipulator cleans both in one move.
Why is the momentum not strong anymore? Short covering is a one-time fuel; once burned, it depends on whether ETFs can maintain weekly net inflows and whether the 67K pullback can hold on spot. Until these two are confirmed, 78,000 is near the ceiling, not the floor.
So the old saying still stands: avoid contracts, hold spot firmly.
No matter how much spot falls, value coins will not go to zero.
Watch if $BTC can hold the 67,000 pullback; hold $OKB firmly as support. If you don't understand this market, don't trade; holding spot is a hundred times better than kneeling on contracts.
(PS: The above is personal prediction and does not constitute investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility.)After the repurchase expansion, will $BTC definitely open an upward channel?
As of 14:02 Beijing time on August 22, 2026, $BTC spot price is $77,352.22. The most recent 1-hour candlestick closed at $77,380.75, down 1.3881% in that hour, with trading volume reaching 3.182 times the reference average. The 15-minute level rebounded 0.2655%, still within the range. Open interest decreased from 105,818.577 to 105,768.838, a change of -0.047%, and the funding rate is 0.0001. This combination looks more like a slight position contraction after volume expansion, not yet a confirmation of trend reversal.
The official arrangement is that from September 9 to November 4, 2026, the U.S. Treasury will increase the maximum single repurchase scale for liquidity support of 10–20 year and 20–30 year long-term nominal coupon Treasury bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. Scott Bessent stated that the actual scale may exceed $4 billion but ultimately depends on market conditions. This arrangement is not the Treasury directly buying $BTC. The $180,000 to $360,000 range is Mark Connors' estimate based on liquidity improvement and possible adjustments to SLR and other conditions for the cycle ending in 2030, not an official target. The horn of Wang Yi's offensive sounded at the $2,300 defense line. On August 20, the bulls completed a beautiful central breakthrough—ETH pierced the $2,335 high, leaving BTC's steady rook behind. On the chessboard, the $110 million short camp suffered a double blow: on-chain liquidations consumed $108.15M, and the seasoned fortress pension-usdt.eth was also forced to abandon its position.
The midgame battle is never a single-line advance. On the exchange's candlestick chart, this bullish candle pierced through a five-month downtrend line, like a rear wing gambit suddenly turning into a central heavy piece. But the real dark line lies in ETF inflows: the US spot ETH fund saw net inflows for three consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA alone absorbing $122 million. Is this a signal of a two-wing encirclement, or merely reinforcing a fragile king's wing bishop?
A grandmaster's intuition tells me that liquidation data is just a superficial "check." Shorts forced to liquidate are like being compelled to exchange a queen for a knight on the chessboard—that's a tactical defeat, not a strategic victory. If this rally is merely a dense short-covering by the bears, then when buying power recedes like a tide, what will be exposed is an overextended leveraged pawn chain. You see, every liquidation address is an isolated chess piece, and large accounts like pension-usdt.eth are weak pawns pinned on a3.
Now, ETF inflows are like stacking pawns on the rear wing—clumsy but steady. But is that $189 million inflow enough to support the entire endgame? The dark river of spot and the storm of futures intertwine in a C-language-like multithreaded dance, with every millisecond's quote being the heartbeat between two moves. True experts don't waste time before the chess clock—they care about how, when buying power dries up, leverage will amplify every slight fluctuation like a chain of sacrificed pieces.
The endgame is still far off, but the king's wing is already damaged. The player understands that the greatest danger is not the opponent's check, but their own pawn chain trembling in the storm. On the chessboard, every piece has its debt maturity. #ethwipes1.1bshorts Behind BTC's 24% surge lies in when the fuel for the $4 billion rally created by short liquidations will run out in the next phase. To maintain the upward trend after the short squeeze ends, ETF funds must continue absorbing supply, but can this trend really continue? This week, the market showed a clear direction. Bitcoin has risen 24% since Monday, marking its largest weekly gain since March. During the same period, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.1 billion in just two days, and ETH ETFs recorded $221 million in a single day. XRP also rose 15%. The scale of short liquidations is estimated at about $4 billion, indicating that much of this price surge was driven by mechanical buying pressure from forced liquidations. What this incident means is a change in market structure. The $4 billion short liquidation was not just a price increase, but also left rebuying pressure as liquidated volumes re-entered the market. ETF inflows mean that institutional demand has reinforced this buying pressure, and these twoThe rebar in the floor slab is creaking, but you are only focused on the lighting strips in the model room.
Thirteen billion dollars worth of rebar has been embedded into the bearing platform. OpenAI's Q2 reported revenue of 6.7 billion, like a tower that has just broken through zero, with each floor accelerating upward. But operating losses expanded from 9.3 billion to 12.3 billion; this is not the reflection on the glass curtain wall, but the core tube's cracks breathing. Growth does not bring self-weight but a more aggressive cut into the foundation. On the other side, Anthropic drew a steeper slope with 11.6 billion in revenue and even squeezed out a bit of adjusted profit — that small profit in the AI industry is like a supertall building finally having a dry basement drainage system.
These are the two types of construction logs most familiar to structural engineers: one rushing the schedule, using concrete accelerators to suppress cracks, converting all planned refuge floors into machine rooms; the other quietly conducting pile foundation tests, with every ultrasonic tube containing unequivocal waveform data.
Sarah Friar announced at the August 19 construction meeting that the structure would be topped out by 2027, or earlier if growth accelerates. It sounds like a promise, but veterans know the completion date is written in the contract appendix and can be changed anytime by the underground river's diversion. Real structural engineers don’t listen to reports; they arrive at the site at 3 a.m. to check settlement monitoring readings. These numbers leak from media channels and investor memos, without a single stamped supervision certificate. Unaudited financials are like piles without static load tests — you can see them standing but never their expression when pulled toward the earth’s core.
The US stock XSKHY is just a tower crane on the construction site, seemingly able to lift heavy loads, but whose foundation the tower is anchored to depends on the confidentiality level of the blueprints. Now, the whole venue is applauding the giant building claiming "on-schedule topping out," while the underground part of that building has every steel column groaning beyond yield strength.
The world of structures only recognizes one metric: when the moment of maximum wind pressure arrives, which floor slab’s vibration amplitude first triggers the damper’s limit. And the current wind has just passed level three, not yet reaching the anemometer’s full scale day. #openaiq2losswidens#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 Samsung $SAMSUNG This time, the shareholder return of up to about $80 billion, what I really think is worth paying attention to is not the dividend itself, but a signal: the money earned from AI storage has become so much that it has started to give back to shareholders on a large scale.
Earlier, SK Hynix announced a buyback, and now Samsung is following suit. In the past round of the storage market, we traded more on HBM, DRAM price increases, and the explosion of AI demand; now it is entering the second phase—order growth truly turning into profit and cash flow.
So, is there still room for revaluation of Korean chip stocks?
I think there is, but the future deciding factor is still not buybacks, but performance growth.
Buybacks can reduce outstanding shares, increase earnings per share, and also support the stock price; but what really makes me optimistic about storage in the long term is that AI is continuously devouring memory. From GPUs to AI servers, and then to future robots and Physical AI, as computing power spreads more into the real world, the demand for storage will only grow.
Of course, there is also a key contradiction: money used for buybacks cannot be fully used for capacity expansion.
If Samsung and SK Hynix maintain capital expenditure discipline while giving back to shareholders on a large scale, it may actually avoid the industry falling again into the old cycle of crazy capacity expansion → oversupply → price collapse.
Therefore, I prefer to understand this $80 billion as: the storage bull market is gradually shifting from a "price increase logic" to a "cash flow logic." Compared to a pure stock price surge, I think this is actually a healthier signal BlockInfinity Market Watch · 8/20: Short Squeeze Final Stage, Full-Cycle Extreme Overbought, Four Macro Signals All Bearish Qualitative: Depreciation/fiscal trades combined with a violent short squeeze (94% of 24h liquidations are shorts) have pushed BTC/ETH to full-cycle extreme overbought; however, US stocks risk-off, spot discount, oil rally fueling rate hike narrative, and options magnet all lie below — bulls are "fuel for shorts" rather than driven by new money. 📊 Price Snapshot (12:10 PM #BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain?
BTC broke 77500, rising nearly 20% in three days
The box that circled for months was pierced through with a single line
The question is who will catch it
The short squeeze wave is almost over
ETF had a net inflow of 600 million the day before yesterday, one of the strongest capital signals
But today's market is obviously not as strong as the previous two days
So my judgment is that the short squeeze phase is over
The next step relies on spot buying
Hold steady at 77000, waiting for the full week ETF data $MOVE experienced a short-term surge driven by buying pressure and ecosystem liquidity stimulation, but the main core contradiction in the subsequent long-short game focuses on the large-scale unlocking and the bankruptcy risk of the original core development company.
In terms of driving factors, institutional buying and the mainnet launch have temporarily raised market risk appetite, but token inflation and chip clearing pressure still constrain sustainability.
World Liberty Financial's purchase of about $2 million worth of tokens has established short-term liquidity support, while the approximately 165 million tokens unlocked in August and the same amount scheduled to unlock on September 9 (about 1.6% of the total supply) determine the upper limit of inflationary selling pressure.
The event risk of the original core development company MVMT Labs filing for bankruptcy is intensifying position divergences and profit-taking willingness during the rebound process.
The bullish scenario requires the price to remain steadily above the $0.0085 level. If turnover is smooth and there is a volume breakout above the $0.009 resistance, the price is expected to further rise to the $0.010 to $0.011 range; if the price falls below $0.0085 on low volume, the bullish scenario fails.
The bearish scenario focuses on position hedging sentiment before the large unlocking in September. If the price breaks the key support at $0.008, risk aversion triggered by the bankruptcy event will accelerate profit-taking; if the price holds above $0.009 on volume, the bearish scenario fails.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the chip accumulation status at the $0.0085 support level and the strength of spot buying in absorbing inflationary selling pressure before the large unlocking on September 9.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元The move above $77K looks more like a broad risk rebound than a BTC-only breakout. ETH and SOL are leading on the day, which points to improving appetite for beta, but not yet to a clean change in the macro regime.
Revived US PMI strength keeps rate expectations restrictive, so I would treat this rally as credible but fragile. If BTC can hold strength while higher-beta assets cool, the advance becomes healthier. For now, chasing the fastest mover looks less compelling than watching whether flows consolidate.
Just my read, not advice.Brothers, I'm Ergou. I turned 25u into 10 times in two weeks, but my account went to zero a while ago. It wasn't a sneak attack by the dog market makers, nor a sudden liquidation spike; it was my own misjudgment and reckless opening of positions. Holding my phone, watching the 0.88 short position profit on BEAT float right before my eyes—it could have saved me, but it ended up going down with SanDisk. Today, I’m dissecting these two losing trades for you guys as a story, but if it helps you avoid even one pitfall, then my tuition fee wasn’t paid in vain. --- First trade: White House crypto meeting, what was Ergou doing? Market: $BTC surged from 63,000 to 79,000, a 16,000-point increase, even a rocket launch isn’t this fierce. The US had already leaked news about making BTC a national asset, hoarding it as “crypto gold”—this kind of nuclear-level bullish news had been hinted at long before. What was Ergou doing then? I opened a short at 66,750! The reason was very “professional”— “RSI was at 80, Bollinger Bands broke the upper band, it should correct now, right?” But the dog market makers slapped me hard: “Technical analysis? What trash is that? I only look at the news!” Ergou’s painful lesson: The news is your real parent, technicals are your godparent! With the White House crypto seminar and the US treating BTC as a strategic reserve, how could you still short? That’s like going long on gold the day before the Fed announces a rate hike. The correct move was: let the news ferment → blindly go long at 63,000 → stop loss at 61,500 → hold until 79,000, enough to feed you for three years. BTC surged 24% in three days: Is this really different this time?
In just three days, BTC shot up from $64,100 to $79,500, an increase of over 20%! $ETH also simultaneously hit $2,450. A few days ago, the market was still talking about a “bear market,” but three big bullish candles have directly shifted sentiment from panic back to greed.
But what’s truly worth being cautious about is: Is $79,500 the restart of a bull market, or the last celebration after shorts were forced to liquidate?
This rally isn’t just driven by sentiment. Improved macro liquidity, rising expectations for US crypto regulation, and the return of BTC spot ETF funds have together ignited this move. Especially with institutional money re-entering, this rally carries more weight compared to a pure retail-driven surge.
However, don’t rush to celebrate. Over the past 24 hours, the entire market has liquidated more than $840 million, with shorts accounting for about $670 million. Short squeezes can push prices up quickly, but after the squeeze ends, the real trend depends on sustained spot buying.
Next, I’m focusing on three key points:
① Whether BTC ETFs can maintain net inflows;
② Whether Coinbase premiums can stabilize and turn positive;
③ Whether BTC can hold the $72K–$75K breakout zone.
If it holds, a pullback might be an opportunity; if it falls back, those chasing highs might become the last bag holders.
Is $79.5K the start of a new bull market, or the shorts’ last collective “surrender”? The answer is still in the market.
#DailyOrbit A week has passed, and the Asteroid market has most likely stabilized, with a possibility of a trend reversal. Let's take a look at the data compiled by Dansha!
Data changes of the top 40 Asteroid holders as of 2026.8.22
1: Uniswap inflow 2.36%
MEXC outflow 23.2%
2: Top 10 addresses: no change
Top 20 addresses: 1 increased position, 1 decreased position, 1 new entry
Top 40 addresses: 3 new entries, 1 decreased position, 3 increased positions
$Asteroid Daily Key Summary:
After a week of consolidation, Dansha reanalyzed Asteroid. The token price is almost unchanged compared to a week ago. The outflow from MEXC exchange is unusually large. To ensure data accuracy, Dansha specifically checked MEXC holdings from 7.28 to today and confirmed the outflow is real. As for where the outflow went, Dansha did not investigate. The number of holders increasing and decreasing positions among the top addresses is nearly balanced, with only a small difference. There are 4 new addresses in the top 40. Dansha checked these 4 addresses and found that 1 address transferred in, while the other 3 genuinely bought in to enter the top 40. Overall data suggests that selling pressure from top addresses is weakening, and buying demand may even surpass selling. Unless there is extreme negative news or a large holder dumping, the market is most likely stabilized 🔥 Shocking scam? Smart money collectively shorting, $LAB retail investors are being "harvested to the root"!
Not afraid of the main force cutting the chives, but afraid the main force even digs out the roots of the chives!
On August 22, LAB plummeted. On the surface, it was token unlocking, but in fact, it was the project team harvesting. An investor who once had a floating profit of 5.6 million from a $5,000 investment only had $3,219 left at unlocking. On-chain detective ZachXBT tracked the team selling $18.3 million, with internal accusations of controlling over 95% of the supply.
Smart money data is even more brutal: short sellers have a 70.85% profit rate, with floating profits of $1.81 million; long holders only 21.85% profit rate, with floating losses of $2.35 million. The market is voting with its feet.
Operation advice:
Short: aggressive traders enter at current price, conservative traders enter at 0.0820-0.0850
My judgment: This is not a bottom, it's a meat grinder. Whales hold all cheap chips and are still earning funds from the longs. Time favors the shorts. Rushing in to bottom-fish now is likely to be a loss. Wait until volume shrinks and smart money switches from short to long before acting.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $BTC breaks through 79,500, triggering a strong short squeeze, with three main bullish logics summarized
BTC stands above 79,500, with about $3 billion liquidated in 24 hours; the buy orders from short covering continue to push the price higher.
Three core reasons for the market strength:
1. U.S. Treasury increases long-term bond repurchases, 30-year Treasury yield falls, easing pressure from high interest rates;
2. White House summit signals crypto-friendly policies, boosting positive industry expectations;
3. Previous short positions accumulated, and after a long consolidation, the breakout triggered concentrated short covering.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 Dalio's news was sensationalized by the headlines. The original statement was not "buy gold and Bitcoin," but: reduce bond holdings, allocate 10–15% to gold, and only put "a little" into Bitcoin — and in his own portfolio, $BTC only accounts for 1% long-term.
These two numbers differ by an order of magnitude, but the headlines merged them into a parallel relationship, changing the meaning.
What’s worth pondering is his choice: in the past 7 days, $BTC +22.5%, gold +4.8%; in 30 days, +18.8% vs. +13.5%. The one that rose more he gives 1%, the one that rose less he gives 10–15%.
This shows his logic is not "which one performs better," but "which one am I confident will still be there when a crisis really hits." Gold has thousands of years of liquidation history, Bitcoin only a decade or so — it’s not about optimism, but the difference in certainty levels.
The trigger point is the Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases. He interprets this as a signal that a crisis is approaching: high deficits, rising interest expenses, possible lack of buyers for U.S. debt, giving a 3-year window (±2 years).
Even his allocation to Bitcoin is as insurance, not as a position.Will SanDisk fall back to $1300: From a high-level pullback to the industry's trump card, where is the downside limit?
After SanDisk hit a historical high of over $2000, it has been fluctuating and consolidating, currently oscillating repeatedly between $1570 and $1630. Many investors who are stuck or looking to buy the dip are asking if it could possibly plunge all the way back down to $1300?
From a short-term capital perspective, the storage sector, after experiencing a previous surge, is indeed facing pressure from profit-taking and valuation digestion. If the US stock market collectively pulls back due to macro interest rate disturbances, it is entirely possible for SanDisk to test the support zone between $1400 and $1450.
However, expecting it to break through the defense line and fall back to $1300 or even lower is an extremely low probability event under the current industry fundamentals.
The core logic lies in the fundamental change in the commercial nature of storage chips. The explosive demand from large-context models for enterprise-grade high-density QLC eSSD has propelled SanDisk from a low-margin cyclical stock to a core position in AI-customized infrastructure. Long-term order agreements with leading cloud providers have locked in profit floors, and the forward valuation corresponding to $1300 has already been compressed into a safety zone that institutional funds cannot ignore.
At this stage, it is crucial not to leverage up during the volatility, but if market sentiment truly offers a deep dip opportunity between $1350 and $1400, it would actually be a high risk-reward defensive zone for accumulating spot positions in batches.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧