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Ethereum $ETH also took off this week
In the past few days, Ethereum's gains have actually been a bit stronger than Bitcoin's.
On Monday, it was hovering around $1900, and by Friday it had surged to around $2500, reaching a high of over $2540. It rose about 25%-30% this week, very fast. It jumped directly from 1900 to above 2400, feeling like a spring that had been compressed suddenly snapping back.
The main reason is still following the overall market. The U.S. Treasury has increased long-term bond repurchases, liquidity is loose, and risk assets have collectively benefited. Shorts have also been massively liquidated, and the liquidation amount on Ethereum's side is not small. Additionally, there has been a clear inflow of funds into spot ETH ETFs these days, with institutional buyers active. Plus, Bitcoin moved first, and as a high-beta asset, Ethereum's rise tends to be more exaggerated.
From an ordinary person's perspective, this wave of Ethereum is more "trend-following + sentiment" than Bitcoin. It doesn't have particularly strong independent positive factors; it's more of a catch-up rally after market risk appetite has improved. Ethereum was relatively weak in the past few months, and expectations were low, so once sentiment turns positive, rapid recovery like this easily occurs.
However, rapid gains also mean risk. It has already entered an overbought zone in the short term, liquidity thins out over the weekend, and volatility may increase. If it can hold steady at 2300-2400 and gradually absorb selling pressure, there is still room to go up; if it falls back quickly, don't be too surprised.
My own feeling is: in such a rapid rally, chasing highs is easy to get trapped. The truly comfortable position is often after a pullback. Those holding positions now can consider watching more closely,Trump issued another coin?
Trump's media TMTG this time launched a Token, which is a non-transferable on-chain electronic coupon given to DJT US stock shareholders.
▶️ Completely non-transferable
The official rules are very strict: non-transferable, not listed on exchanges, cannot be liquidated, and the secondary market cannot price it at all.
▶️ No equity whatsoever
No shares or dividends are given; it is purely for redeeming exclusive discounts or benefits on platforms like Truth Social.
🤔 Why go through the trouble of putting it on-chain?
▶️ To expose short sellers on-chain
TMTG's CEO has always hated naked short selling in US stocks. This coin issuance stipulates that only the true ultimate beneficial shareholders can receive it; short sellers borrowing stocks cannot get it. Issuing the coin is equivalent to conducting a disguised on-chain spot check on US stock short sellers.
▶️ Risk-free way to attract Web3 users
Without violating the SEC's unregistered securities rules, it converts millions of US retail shareholders directly into Web3 wallet users, laying the foundation for their future financial ecosystem.
🤔 Forecast for the next trend
▶️ Speculators will completely leave
With no liquidity, this thing cannot be speculated on at all.
▶️ Closed-loop circulation within the ecosystem
In the future, it is very likely that exchanges will be opened within TMTG, allowing it to be used to offset video subscriptions or platform advertising fees.
▶️ US Meme stocks will follow suit
This combination of US stocks plus on-chain badges is very likely to be imitated by other US stock companies with a high proportion of retail investors, becoming a new type of fan engagement tool.
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC Bitcoin $BTC took off directly this week
The recent Bitcoin market, to be honest, has somewhat exceeded many people's expectations
On Monday, it was still hovering around 64,000, and by Friday it had surged close to 80,000, reaching a high of about 79,500. It rose nearly 20% this week, the strongest week in nearly three years. From 64,000 straight up to around 78,000, the speed was indeed fast.
Why did it suddenly rise so much? Mainly because the macro environment changed. The U.S. Treasury announced it would increase long-term bond repurchases, simply put, injecting more liquidity into the market, causing long bond yields to fall, benefiting risk assets. Additionally, shorts were massively liquidated; reportedly, tens of billions of dollars in short positions were blown up in recent days, creating a clear short squeeze. ETFs also saw continuous inflows, and institutional investors have not fully withdrawn.
From an ordinary person's perspective, this wave looks more like a "liquidity + sentiment" resonance result. In the past few months, it had been grinding between 60,000 and 66,000, with a cautious mindset. Suddenly, a macro positive combined with short liquidations led to a direct breakout upward. The rapid rise indicates a significant accumulation of short positions in the market, and once the direction turns, such quick rebounds are easy to occur.
However, we should also stay calm. Although the short-term momentum is strong, the price is already far from the lows of a few days ago, and short-term overbought signals are quite obvious. Liquidity usually thins over the weekend, which may increase volatility. If it can hold above 75,000 and gradually digest selling pressure, the upward space will still open; if it falls back quickly, don't be too surprised, after all, it rose too fast. #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $XAU 从不同时间维度来看，金价的驱动因素并不相同。 长期来看，金价的核心运行逻辑在于其“终极支付”特性。 在全球地缘局势风险持续存在、美元信用不断受到质疑的背景下，黄金对美元形成一定的替代效应。 因此，从长周期看，金价依然具备上涨空间。 中期来看，金价运行逻辑主要源于全球货币政策变化。 目前美联储正处于降息周期与加息周期的切换时点，是否采取加息行动，仍需要美国宏观经济数据进一步指引，因此金价的中期调整尚未结束。 短期来看，当前黄金市场正在反馈美国长期国债流动性支持政策带来的影响，行情运行节奏较快，需对其持续性保持警惕。 经过7月筑底和8月反弹后，金价已经打破1月下旬以来下行趋势线的压制，市场由此前的下跌趋势逐步转向震荡格局。 短期来看，美伊冲突前景仍是影响黄金市场的重要变量，目前双方诉求存在较大分歧，金价可能随着局势变化而反复波动。 如果冲突升级，同时美联储继续保持“鹰派”立场，甚至在通胀数据回升以及市场对“口头降息”“明鹰实鸽”等质疑之下意外加息，金价可能重新测试前期低点区域支撑。 黄金市场若想重回上涨趋势，则可能需要美国经济风险进We need to understand that Polymarket is not some Twitter influencer who makes predictions with just words; behind every probability here, there is real, hard cash.
1. An 81% probability is almost a sure thing in financial forecasting. This means the wealthiest and most aggressive players in the market already see $80,000 as the guaranteed minimum spending for this month.
2. A 49% probability for $82,500 is basically a coin toss; and a 27% probability for $85,000. This tells us: people think surpassing 80k is highly likely, but to surge ahead to 85k in the remaining 9 days would require a miracle or Elon Musk tweeting twice more.
Here’s the most interesting part: the contract shows a 50% probability that BTC will drop below $75,000.
See, this is the charm (or the frustration) of the crypto world. On one hand, 81% believe it can reach 80k, while on the other, there’s a 50% chance it will first fall below 75k. Translated into plain language: "We want to go to Antarctica, but on the way, we might fall into the Arctic ice hole." This coexistence of high odds and high risk perfectly illustrates the saying "great wealth comes with great risk."
* Since 81% of people believe it will reach 80k, the dominant market forces won’t let everyone get on board easily. Before breaking through, that 50% probability "dip" is very likely meant to shake out those with high-leverage long positions.
* With only 9 days left until the end of the month, this kind of prediction contract will continue to evolveRecording again the coins that rose more than 10% on today's gain list, and comparing them with the past few days, I believe what is most worth paying attention to now is not that TRUMP has risen 65%, but that the range of the market's rise is becoming broader.
A couple of days ago, the first to become active were still Meme, DeFi, and some old coins.
Looking again today, the BTC ecosystem, AI, RWA, L2, gaming, privacy, and many old projects that haven't been noticed for a long time have all been reactivated by capital.
This indicates that this market rally is moving from ignition by a few coins to gradual sector-wide diffusion.
Another phenomenon is becoming increasingly obvious: capital is starting to look for coins that haven't risen much yet.
After the first batch of strong coins has pulled away, capital hasn't immediately exited but continues to rotate towards low positions, low valuations, and high elasticity.
That's why the recent gain lists have become more and more exaggerated.
A few days ago, a 10% rise could still rank near the top; now, even a 15% rise might barely make the front rows.
However, the more this happens, the less I focus solely on who has risen the most.
Because when the market enters a broad rally, many catch-up rises will appear simply because others have risen and this one hasn't yet.
What I truly find worth recording is:
Which coins repeatedly appear on the gain list for several days;
Which sectors are the first to become active each time capital rotates;
Which leaders don't just rise for one day but continuously attract capital back.
Making the list once might just be sentiment.
Appearing two or three times in a row, or returning to the front of the gain list at different stages, shows it is indeed repeatedly noticed by capital.
So what I am doing now is not chasing the gain list but using it to screen and observe the watchlist for the next phase.
After this wave of heat passes, looking back at these days' records might be more valuable than watching which coin rose how much in a single day now. $BTC #BTC continues its strong momentum, but after the sharp rally, don’t rush to call a bull return just yet.
In the past few days, BTC quickly surged from around 65,000 to 79,000, which is indeed very strong. However, I tend to interpret this as a combination of macro pressure relief, short squeeze, and capital chasing the rally, rather than a pure bull market confirmation.
With the long-term US Treasury yields falling, risk assets get some breathing room; after BTC broke through key resistance, a large number of short positions were forced to stop loss, and liquidations turned into buying pressure, creating a positive feedback loop of "the higher it goes, the more it explodes, and the more it explodes, the higher it goes." ETH also strengthened in sync, indicating a clear short-term risk appetite recovery.
But what really needs to be observed is: how much of this rally comes from new spot capital inflows, and how much is just leveraged short covering?
If ETFs continue to flow in, spot trading volume expands, and stablecoin funds re-enter the market, then 79,000 might just be a midpoint; conversely, if volume quickly shrinks after the breakout, be wary of profit-taking after the short squeeze ends.
Assets with high elasticity like DOGE require even more caution. A quick spike can easily attract chasing funds, which then becomes an opportunity for whales to cash out liquidity.
So don’t rush to guess the top now, nor chase heavily just because you missed out. Whether 79,000 can hold and whether the first pullback can hold are the true dividing lines between strength and weakness.
Next, focus on the volume and pullback strength after the 79,000 breakout — this is more important than just watching how high the price surges.
#BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain? $BTC $ETH #BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain? #WhiteHouseSummit: Trump said he once discussed buying BTC
In mid-August 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) surged strongly past the $78,000 mark, marking its best weekly performance since March 2023. This epic rally was primarily triggered by an "epic short squeeze." Previously, BTC had been consolidating in a bottom range, accumulating a large number of overcrowded short positions. Following the U.S. Treasury's announcement to expand long-term Treasury repurchase operations, which lowered long-term Treasury yields, market liquidity expectations eased, and risk appetite quickly rebounded. After the price rally, many short positions were forced to stop-loss buy back, creating a chain reaction of "passive buying," resulting in a cumulative increase of over 20% in just 5 trading days.
Led by the leader, the entire crypto market is boiling over. Ethereum (ETH) simultaneously surged past $2,500, and mainstream coins like BNB and SOL also recorded impressive gains of over 5%. Even the Meme coin representative Dogecoin (DOGE) skyrocketed more than 18%.
Looking ahead, in the short term, due to extremely exuberant bullish sentiment and the clearing of short leverage, the market still has momentum to push upward, but caution is needed against sharp volatility triggered by profit-taking; in the long term, against the backdrop of marginal improvement in global liquidity, high-quality blue-chip assets still have considerable upside potential. Overall, short term 📈, long term 📈.Yesterday, I didn't anticipate $BTC rising to $73,000, and today I didn't expect Bitcoin to reach $79,000. However, among my close friends, there are indeed two very extreme approaches to this surge. Some of the more traditional friends have almost completely sold off all the Bitcoin or $IBIT they recently purchased, as they are not very optimistic about this rebound, believing that the rally has peaked and a deeper correction will follow.
Even selling at a loss is done to free up funds to buy more during the correction, which I can understand. On the other hand, a group of quantitative and trading-native crypto investors believe this is the start of a bull market, firmly convinced that Bitcoin's rise is a long-suppressed breakout, with expectations that Bitcoin could at least return to around $90,000.
As for me, I am a relatively conservative investor. I've always said that my ideal price, the price at which I am willing to spend real money to buy Bitcoin, is below $65,000. So I have been trading back and forth with dual coins, and at most, I can accept BTC near $70,000. But if it goes higher, I might not be in a hurry to buy. Also, my biggest hope for 2026 is not now, but after the midterm elections.
Personally, I think the best time to enter is around October, and to exit in December or January next year. This is my current personal view. Looking at the current US stock market situation, I don't believe BTC can have an explosive surge independent of the US stock market. Although it might be because it fell too much before, a catch-up rally is unlikely to be like this. So recently, I've been considering hedging around $77,000.The market is rotating into two very different types of risk at the same time: old conviction and fast attention. $ZEC , $DASH and $ZEN leading tells me privacy and old-cycle coins are suddenly being repriced. That usually happens when traders start looking for narratives that were ignored for too long, not just new hype. But beside that, $TRUMP , $WIF , $PEPE and $MUBARAK show meme liquidity is also awake. This is more dangerous because meme pumps can move fast, but the bid can disappear even fBTC and ETH are entering a price revaluation phase after a short-term overheating period. How should we interpret the gap between the apparent rate of increase and the actual supply-demand strength? As of August 22, BTC rose about 20% weekly, reaching a high of approximately $79,500, while ETH increased about 26% weekly, reaching $2,388. During this period, about $1.6 billion in net inflows were confirmed into BTC spot ETFs. This shows that the recent rise is not solely the result of individual speculative funds but also involves institutional capital participation. However, it is noteworthy that both the price increase rate and the ETF inflow scale are information already exposed to the market. In other words, the current price already reflects these two factors to a significant extent. - Momentum signal: If BTC stabilizes above $80,000, the short-term uptrend may continue. In this case, an additional range expansion up to the $82,000–$85,000 range is possible. - Risk signal: $80,000 is the previous high and a psychological resistance level. Breakouts without accompanying volume or repeated rejections in this range are$BTC Is this a precursor to a US debt bomb? The Treasury acted overnight, but the crypto community got excited first!
$ETH Last night, the traditional finance world exploded—the US 30-year Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2007. The Treasury couldn't sit still and urgently announced doubling the long-term bond buyback limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. As soon as the news broke, the 30-year yield instantly dropped back to 5.19%.
$ZEC But the “new bond king” Gundlach revealed the essence with one sentence: “The longer the duration, the more variables time brings; when supply and inflation are full of unknowns, higher yields are the only shield for capital.” Simply put, the market fears the $40 trillion US debt black hole—the buyback is just a “sell short, buy long” bond swap operation, with no reduction in debt. Sure enough, two days later, yields shot back up to 5.28%.
This panic in traditional markets instead became a catalyst for crypto.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
Falling US Treasury yields = weaker dollar = risk assets partying. Bitcoin surged 8.2% within 12 hours after the news, once approaching $72,000. ETH rose over 19%, SOL nearly 13%. The entire network saw $1.44 billion in short liquidations—the shorts were wiped out in one wave.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
The logic is simple: the world’s largest “risk-free asset” is trembling, so where does the money flow? Bitcoin.
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 0xcf91b70017eabde82c9671e30e5502d312ea6eb2 #黄金突破4600美元, bond safe-haven status is challenged$XAU The gold market is influenced by both monetary and financial attributes, and in recent years the market has been constantly switching between these two logics. On one hand, high U.S. Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of investing in gold; On the other hand, the decline in US dollar credit benefits gold's pricing system, and these two factors continue to cause two-way disturbances in gold prices. Recently, data released by the U.S. Treasury Department showed that the amount of U.S. Treasury bonds held by foreign investors decreased in June compared to May, and data from the World Gold Council shows that global central bank gold purchases in the second quarter increased by 62% year-on-year. The heated discussion about "selling US Treasuries and buying gold" has brought the "de-dollarization" narrative back into investors' view. However, judging from the performance of gold prices falling first and then rising before and after the U.S. Treasury Department announced related policies, interest rate levels remain a key factor influencing gold price trends. Moreover, the long-term narrative's support for gold prices has been fully reflected in the market from 2025 to early 2026. Since the beginning of this year, relevant U.S. authorities have frequently guided market expectations, and the future verification of the path of the dollar's credit decline will continue to be subject to policy intervention. Currently, gold prices are still undergoing a mid-term adjustment, mainly driven by market expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. After mid-year rising expectations for Fed rate hikes, recent market adjustments have been made regarding the timing and magnitude of Fed rate hikes in the second half of 2026, weakening rate expectations and triggering volatility in the US dollar and gold prices. Three coins exploded simultaneously today—HYPE broke through $80 to hit a new all-time high, ZEC surged 41% with a short-term breakout above $860, and TRUMP rose over 35% in 24 hours. Three tokens, three completely different driving logics.
$HYPE E: Trump endorsement + AQAv2 launching soon
HYPE is currently at $80.3, up more than 7.79% intraday. On August 19, Trump stated that the CFTC is working to allow Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. The bigger catalyst is on August 26—AQAv2 will officially launch, and about 90% of the platform's over $5 billion USDC reserve yield will be used to buy back and burn HYPE.
$ZEC: Grayscale ETF application + AI privacy narrative
ZEC briefly broke above $860 to a new all-time high, up 41%, with market cap rising to $13.9 billion. On August 20, Grayscale submitted the fourth revised application to convert Zcash Trust into an ETF. Zcash shielded transactions account for about 90% of trading volume; privacy features may become essential in the AI-driven financial surveillance era.
TRUMP: Presidential-themed coins collectively moving
TRUMP rose over 35%, MELANIA over 23%. No sudden fundamental events; this seems more like early pricing ahead of the November midterm elections.
HYPE relies on buybacks + compliance expectations, ZEC on ETF + privacy narrative, TRUMP on political hype. The first two have fundamental support; the third is purely sentiment-driven trading.The core trigger for this round of crypto recovery is Trump's public endorsement and call to action. It may seem like an old story, but the long-dormant crypto market has just received a timely boost, directly revitalizing market sentiment.
Precisely timing the window is key! The US midterm elections are coming in November, with September to October being the critical period for momentum building, and a clear bill expected to be implemented by mid-September. To avoid election uncertainties, all parties must finalize the bill in September, which is the core policy expectation for this market cycle.
Industry insiders know well that Trump's rise to power was inseparable from strong support from the crypto sector, earning him the nickname "Crypto President." However, during his previous term, the industry remained sluggish, with funds diverted to US stocks and the AI sector, leaving crypto in a difficult position and accumulating significant pressure.
The current situation is clear: Trump needs crypto votes to secure the midterm elections, and the crypto industry needs policy support to break the deadlock, forcing both sides to unite for mutual benefit.
Additionally, a key interpretation of institutional actions: although the market appears volatile and weak, institutions are actually repeatedly stress-testing. The overall institutional holding cost is above 70,000, and the 60,000 range is a strong support level where prices cannot fall further. The low-level oscillation and extremely low volatility serve two purposes: first, to test retail investors' willingness to hold and wash out panic sellers; second, to accumulate strength for a rapid price surge, avoiding retail investors' herd behavior and clearing short positions.
Making money in crypto has never been about hard work, but about the difference in understanding. #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Gold has really surged this time, breaking through $4600. I think the logic behind it is more complex than just the word "safe haven."
What the market is truly worried about now is long-term debt and the credit of the US dollar. The US Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks was originally intended to lower financing costs and stabilize the bond market, but the market has instead started to worry: if long-term interest rates and debt pressures become increasingly difficult to manage, will there be more reliance on liquidity to resolve these issues in the future? Once this expectation arises, gold naturally becomes more attractive.
So I believe the current rise in gold is actually a form of "distrust in the monetary system." Central banks buying gold, funds buying gold, essentially adding a layer of insurance to their balance sheets.
What’s even more interesting is that BTC has also surged to around $78,000, and ETH has climbed back to around $2,400. Gold and BTC strengthening together doesn’t seem like a coincidence to me; capital is searching for value anchors outside the traditional fiat currency system.
But I myself won’t chase gold just because it broke $4600. The sharper the rise, the more you have to guard against a pullback. The same goes for BTC and ETH. This rebound has been very fast; a truly healthy market still needs to rise for a while, shake out some positions, and then continue upward. $BTC $ETH #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
On August 21, 2026, spot gold $XAU broke through the $4600/ounce mark intraday, reaching a high of $4602.04, the highest in nearly three months since May 15. COMEX gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.56% for the week, closing at $4624.10/ounce.
From a monthly performance perspective, London spot gold has steadily climbed from below $4100, with gains exceeding 13% since August. Intraday, it briefly surpassed $4630. Silver also strengthened in tandem, with spot silver touching the $70 mark. Bitcoin $BTC surged 23% within the same week.
The breakthrough of gold above $4600 essentially reflects a concentrated manifestation of a trust crisis in the US dollar credit system. The US's $40 trillion debt ceiling, the Treasury's "band-aid" interventions that instead intensified market panic, the simultaneous surge in US Treasury yields and weakening of the dollar—all these factors together have shattered the traditional perception of "US Treasuries = risk-free assets." #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ Bitcoin standing above the 50-day moving average does not mean the bottom is reached; the 50-week moving average is the key confirmation signal.
Recently, Bitcoin rebounded and stood above the 50-day moving average again, but this does not mean the market has bottomed out.
Backtesting data from previous bear markets shows that although the 50-day moving average reacts faster, it is prone to false breakouts. In contrast, the confirmation effect of the 50-week moving average is stronger, with a higher historical success rate.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is about $78,300, still some distance from the 50-week moving average at $82,400. If the weekly chart can stand above this level again in the future, it may become an important signal for the formation of the bottom in the current cycle. #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $BTC $XAU $XAUT Short term (1-2 weeks)
After a rapid rise in gold prices, the technical indicators show overbought conditions with a large accumulation of profit-taking positions. The market has shifted to a consolidation and digestion mode, with quick rises and falls becoming the norm.
- Support: Decline in long-term US Treasury yields and cooling expectations for a September rate hike make the $4450-4465 range an important support zone; holding this range maintains a bullish bias.
- Resistance: The $4550-4600 range presents significant resistance; a breakout with volume is needed to open a new upward phase. The Jackson Hole central bank symposium and Federal Reserve officials' speeches may cause sharp volatility.
Medium to long term (quarterly level)
The three main underlying bullish logics remain intact:
1. Marginal weakening of US employment and inflation, the rate hike cycle nearing its end, and expectations of a lower interest rate center support gold prices.
2. Continued gold purchases by global central banks provide ongoing bottom support.
3. High US debt pressure and geopolitical uncertainties increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Main risk
If subsequent inflation data rebounds, the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance than expected, and US Treasury yields rebound again, gold prices could experience a significant correction. BTC rose 22% in one week; how was the strongest week in over three years achieved? Bitcoin surged from around $64,000 this week, reaching a high of about $79,500 on Friday, with a weekly increase exceeding 22% at one point. According to Bloomberg's statistics, if the increase holds until the weekly close, it will mark the best single-week performance since March 2023. Four forces collided simultaneously in this rally. First, the U.S. Treasury increased the scale of some long-term Treasury repurchases from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. The easing pressure on long-term interest rates and a weaker dollar allowed BTC and gold to benefit from "scarce asset" trading. Second, Trump publicly urged Congress again to advance the CLARITY crypto regulatory bill, improving U.S. regulatory expectations. Third, real money flowed back into spot Bitcoin ETFs. From Monday to Thursday, net inflows were about $1.6 billion, with approximately $606 million flowing in on Thursday alone—the largest single-day inflow since May. Fourth, shorts were continuously squeezed. Since Wednesday, short liquidations across the market have exceeded $4.3 billion. The price rise forced shorts to cover, which further pushed prices up, creating a continuous short squeeze. Therefore, this weekly candle cannot be attributed solely to the "short squeeze." The short squeeze ignited the rally, but ETF funds, a weaker dollar, and policy expectations determined how far the fire could spread. Now BTC has returned to around $77,000, having touched $79,500 intraday. The $80,000 mark will become a very obvious psychological barrier next. If ETFs continue to see net inflows and the dollar remains weak BTC: Short Squeeze or Trend Reversal?
$BTC posted a weekly gain above 23%, breaking $79K and a prolonged consolidation range. Over $3B in short positions were liquidated, while Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.6B in weekly inflows.
This alone does not confirm a new bull market, but the structure differs from a typical relief rally: shorts were squeezed, liquidity returned, and spot demand strengthened. If $BTC holds the breakout zone, a deeper bearish move will require stronger evidence. In recent days, $ZEC has become the focus of the market. In just a few trading days, the price has repeatedly broken through key levels, surging to around $830–$850 this morning—a remarkable increase from a low point. This rally was not driven by a single piece of news but by multiple factors simultaneously compounded by ETF expectations, institutional positioning, technological upgrades, the reheating of the privacy sector, and derivatives funds driving the market. What's more noteworthy is that ZEC's current upward logic is real, but the speed of price increases has already begun to outpace the pace of fundamentals being realized. 1. Grayscale ETF: Possibly the biggest trigger for this market rally. Currently, the market is most focused on promoting the conversion of Zcash Trust into a spot ETF. Grayscale has recently continued to submit S-3 amendments, promoting the future listing of Zcash Trust on NYSE Arca in the form of ZCSH. This means that once finally approved, traditional financial funds will gain a more direct entry point for ZEC investments. Another piece of information in the document that truly stimulated the market was DCG's entities discussing contributing about 200,000 ZEC to the Zcash Trust. At prices at the time, this portion of the asset was worth over $100 million. However: 200,000 ZEC is currently a non-binding discussion and does not mean the purchase has been completed. However, the market has already started pricing in advance according to the logic that "institutions will absorb a large amount of ZEC supply."After reading Teacher Jiang Zhuoer’s content, here are my thoughts.
First, a preface: He sold ETH between $1738-$1931 two months ago and then bought it back at a stop loss of $2100, selling half again at $2525 trying to catch the top—this kind of back-and-forth operation in his own cognitive review is the most authentic footnote of this market: even industry veterans are uncertain about the top, constantly wavering between "fear of missing out" and "fear of pullback."
Following this preface, here are my views:
His core judgment this round:
Admits the bearish view was wrong, now 90% sure the bear market is over
Bullish on ETH outperforming BTC, reasoning that Trump is pushing US financial assets on-chain, making ETH the "bull market engine"
Strategy for missing out funds: buy all BTC if it drops to 67,000-72,000, otherwise enter at current price by the end of October at the latest
Parts I agree with more:
The phrase "light judgment, heavy risk control" is earned with real money—he didn’t miss out this time, relying not on correct predictions but on the "half short position" mechanism design of WBETH staking + perpetual short positions, ensuring he’s always on the train
I also agree with the big picture (bear market ending, US on-chain narrative)
Parts to be cautious about:
He himself sold high above 2000 trying to catch the top, admitting "confidence is not high"—if even veterans hesitate, it means no one is confident in the short term
The "ETH 20,000 USDT" target he says is just a wild guess, can be used as a reference but not as a basis for action haha $BTC 🩸【BTC Meat Grinder Lab | Today's Macro】
BTC has strongly rebounded this week, once surging near $79K on Friday, with a weekly gain exceeding 20%. But what really matters today is not "how much more it can rise," but whether the macro fuel can continue.
🏦 US Treasury: ⭐⭐⭐½
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, easing pressure on long-term bonds, but long-term yields remain high, so macro risks have not completely disappeared.
💵 US Dollar: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The weakening dollar supports BTC and other non-sovereign scarce assets.
🐳 ETF: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $1.6B, with approximately $606M in a single day on Thursday, showing a clear rebound in institutional demand.
⚠️ Fed: ⭐⭐⭐
The market will focus on signals from the Fed Chair at the Jackson Hole meeting. If hawkish signals are reissued, U.S. Treasury yields may rise again.
🎯 BTC Macro Key Levels
🟢 Holding above $75K → Strong bullish structure
🚀 Breaking $80K → Trend further strengthens
🔴 Losing $75K → Beware of a pullback after a rally
☠️ Breaking below $70K → This short squeeze rally needs to be reassessed
🩸 Today's Macro Sharp Commentary
BTC is no longer simply rising on sentiment.
The real fuel is:
Fiscal operations + Weakening dollar + ETF capital inflows + Short squeeze.
But don't mistake Treasury repurchases for QE.
"Macro has already handed BTC a knife; next, it depends on whether capital can keep cutting upward with it."
⭐ Today's BTC Macro Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½ / 5
🩸 The market handles the meat grinder; we focus on finding the patterns. $ETH #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $XAU Since August, international gold prices have rebounded significantly, mainly due to the temporary easing of the US-Iran conflict and the market's revision of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. At the beginning of the month, the market anticipated a de-escalation of the US-Iran situation. Subsequently, US nonfarm payroll and inflation data both fell short of expectations, leading the market to continuously reduce bets on Fed rate hikes, driving a corrective rebound in gold prices. Meanwhile, US fiscal risks have recently become a market focus again. Data released this week by the US Treasury showed that the total federal government debt exceeded $40 trillion. At the same time, long-term US Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassing 5.3%, the highest since June 2007, reflecting investors' concerns about the ongoing expansion of US fiscal deficits and the sustainability of US debt. Against this backdrop, the US Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of its long-term Treasury buyback operations. Although the buyback scale is relatively small compared to the massive issuance of US debt and has limited substantive impact, the Treasury's swift intervention sent a clear signal to stabilize the market, alleviating the temporary pressure in the US debt market and the strong yields' suppression of gold prices. Many newcomers to crypto still don’t understand how forced liquidation actually works—especially when leverage is involved. Just last night, a trader came to me in the group to complain after his position was wiped out. He kept insisting the price never hit 13.51, so how could his account be liquidated? I didn’t look closely at first because I was live streaming, but later that evening I reviewed the details carefully. 📉 Here’s the key point he missed: liquidation is not triggered by the last tGlobal assets collectively surge! Gold breaks 4600, BTC holds above 7900, all rooted in a single operation by the U.S. Treasury
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Recently, the global market has witnessed an extremely unified phenomenon: gold skyrocketing past the 4600 USD mark, BTC powerfully breaking through 79000 USD, and the U.S. dollar index steadily retreating.
Many only see the price surge but fail to realize: the bond market, gold, and crypto markets all moved simultaneously, triggered solely by the U.S. Treasury pressing the national debt repurchase button.
That night that rewrote short-term global pricing
On the evening of August 19, everything reached a turning point.
The U.S. Treasury announced: the single repurchase limit for long-term government bonds was doubled from 2 billion to at least 4 billion USD. The moment the news landed, the market immediately repriced:
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged 10 basis points; the previously soaring long-term rates, which had hit a 19-year high, suddenly stalled;
The S&P 500 closed slightly higher, gold surged 4% in a single day to firmly hold above 4500, then continued climbing;
The dollar weakened in response, BTC rose 5% that day to reclaim above 70,000, then accelerated to break through 79,000, with short sellers across the network suffering massive liquidations.
Many wonder: why could a seemingly routine government bond liquidity operation move tens of trillions in global markets?
The answer is simple: it touched the pricing foundation of the global 40 trillion USD Treasury system.
Before this, the 30-year Treasury yield had soared to a high of 5.337%, with the entire market trading on "higher rates, longer duration," causing funds to flock to Treasury safe havens, while zero-yield assets like gold and BTC were continuously neglected.
But this time, the Treasury directly intervened, creating an official mandatory buyer for long-term Treasuries. The market instantly understood the signal: the U.S. will never allow long-term rates to rise unchecked; there is an implicit ceiling on rates.
Complete transmission chain, understand the surge logic at a glance
1. Treasury expands long-term bond repurchases → long-term Treasuries are supported, bond prices rise, yields quickly fall
2. Risk-free Treasury yields shrink, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield scarce assets like gold and BTC
3. The dollar weakens under pressure, massive funds, like a driven tide, flood into two core safe havens: gold and Bitcoin
Subsequent market action fully confirms this logic: BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows exceeding 1.6 billion USD over three consecutive days, real spot funds entering the market, combined with massive short covering from previously piled-up shorts, directly pushing prices to break through resistance.
Deeper essence: this is a silent de-dollarization stress test
This market move has long surpassed simple interest rate speculation.
With U.S. debt exceeding 40 trillion USD, the hidden risks of long-term debt rollover grow increasingly prominent, multiple foreign countries continue reducing Treasury holdings, and trust in dollar assets is slowly loosening.
When the global asset pricing anchor begins to show signs of loosening, assets with fixed supply that cannot be arbitrarily printed by sovereigns will be revalued by capital.
Gold, as a millennia-old hard currency, erupts first, while Bitcoin becomes the best hedge in the digital world.
Finally, a practical takeaway
1. This rally is not an isolated crypto event but a macro liquidity inflection-driven trend recovery; closely monitor Treasury yields and ETF fund continuity, and avoid relying solely on market sentiment to judge price moves;
2. Short-term gains may overextend sentiment; do not blindly go all-in at high levels. This Treasury operation is liquidity adjustment, not a formal Fed rate cut; the bullishness is expectation-driven and may quickly reverse once expectations are priced in;
3. In the long run, as long as Treasury risks remain unresolved, the logic of allocating scarce value-preserving assets will repeatedly take effect.
Understanding the bond market is key to truly grasping gold and Bitcoin price movements. This collective rally is never accidental.
⚠️ Risk warning: This article is only a market logic review and discussion, not any investment advice. Financial markets are highly volatile; please strictly control positions and trade rationally. $TRUMP up +60.55% today, +94.70% over 7 days. But zooming out: the real movement isn’t just this one coin, it’s the entire narrative. Among 243 sectors today, the strongest is PolitiFi, up +51.6% in 24h, with MELANIA +39.8% and PEOPLE +12.9% almost all rising — broad member gains indicate rotation, while only the leader moving is just a pump. The contract side matches this: USD value of positions up +119.84% in 24h, number of contracts +34.83%, showing real money entering, not just shorts closing; fee rate 0.0050%, leverage not accumulated. But two points must be clarified. First, the ratio of whales to retail is only 1.119, with large holders at 2.459 and retail at 2.198 almost synchronized — unlike today’s $ZEC where retail chased shorts and whales added longs, a clear divergence, here it’s emotional resonance. Second, it’s still -96.2% from the all-time high, circulating supply only 25% of total, with the remaining 75% unlock timing hanging overhead. RSI 4h at 79 is milder than ZEC, but the pullback is equally irrational. This week, Bitcoin surged from 62,000 to 78,000, which on the surface looks like a short squeeze.
But what really ignited the market was the decision by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday.
She doubled the long-term Treasury repurchase scale from 2 billion to 4 billion.
The problem is, this operation only lasted less than a day. After a brief drop, long-term bond yields came under pressure again and basically stayed flat for the week.
Yellen herself said the market was "a bit overreacting." But the dollar did fall, while gold and Bitcoin surged in sync.
Barclays strategists put it bluntly—the dollar is the "biggest loser" in this round of operations, and fiscal concerns have reignited safe-haven demand. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold is now at its highest level since the pandemic. Manulife's investment manager pointed out the fundamental issue: "The Treasury can influence liquidity, but it can't suppress fundamental forces."
Three things happened simultaneously—Bitcoin rose, gold rose, and the dollar fell. This is not a trade on risk appetite warming up; it's pricing in the U.S. fiscal deficit. After the tools in Yellen's toolbox are exhausted, the real macro fundamentals will retake pricing power. $BTC Macroeconomic high interest rates continue to suppress risk appetite in the US stock market, with $RIOT maintaining an 11.0x P/S ratio facing valuation transmission pressure. Currently, a market value of $7.44 billion corresponds to an annualized revenue of $674.5 million, and its valuation multiple is higher than peers MARA and CLSK in the same sector. If inflation data raises expectations for the interest rate path, a contraction in market risk appetite will trigger a reduction in holdings of high P/S US mining companies. The condition to watch is whether Riot's annualized revenue growth stabilizes and whether the P/S compresses to the 8x level.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？ #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元The most direct fuel for this round of rally is the short sellers being forced to liquidate.
In the past three days, nearly $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin shorts have been forcibly closed, with about $4.5 billion of short positions liquidated across the entire market.
189,000 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.459 billion.
At the same time, institutions continue to buy. Thirteen US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $1 billion this week, poised to record the largest weekly net inflow since January. Whales have increased their Bitcoin holdings by about $2.75 billion in the past 60 days. BlackRock's IBIT is the world's largest Bitcoin ETF, with $55 billion in assets under management. Bearish bets on it have been increasing this year, with short positions soaring to about 3% of the float.
On Wednesday, Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House, urging the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act. However, the bill stalled due to disagreements over ethics provisions and failed to be voted on before the August recess. The White House is pushing, but Congress is inactive; the two are moving at different paces.
A week ago it was 62,000, now 78,000. Shorts have been liquidated once, ETFs continue to attract funds, and whales are accumulating. But shorts can be liquidated once, not twice. The real trend requires sustained spot buying support. Next week's movement is more worth watching than this week's surge. $BTC $ETH $2,514, +7.46%, up 29% this week outperforming BTC. ETF single-day inflow $220.7M hits a 10-month high, 4 consecutive days inflow totaling $512M. Shorts liquidated $1.69B in 3 days.
This time ETH is truly outperforming BTC. ETF net inflow of $512M over 4 days, BlackRock's ETHA is the main force. Whale 0x2d59 withdrew 120,000 ETH ($237.7M) from Binance over three weeks, Abraxas Capital also withdrew 18,000 ETH. Exchange ETH balances dropped to multi-month lows, selling pressure is contracting.
But some are exiting. 7 Siblings sold 14,000 ETH at an average price of $2,346, cashing out $32.85M. However, on-chain Network Realized Profits indicator is very low, indicating LTHs are not unloading massively, Age Consumed is calm, old holders are still holding.
Fidelity's ETH ETF staking application is still awaiting SEC approval. If approved, it will directly lock ETH liquidity, bringing the yield narrative. Coinbase Premium is recovering but not yet positive, US funds are returning but not strongly enough.
So overall, ETH is running an independent trend, driven by ETF + short liquidations + staking narrative. But RSI at 86 is extremely overbought, $2,550 is resistance. Don't chase the high, consider buying on a pullback to $2,350 On August 21, 24,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.84, a max pain point at $67,000, and a notional value of $1.82 billion.
This week, 6% of options expired, with trading activity surging significantly. The rapid increase in price and activity caused the bullish Gex to be highly dispersed, while the bearish Gex is almost negligible.
The options market is shifting from "long" to "crazy long."
The bullish position distribution has become extremely scattered, while the downside hedging is nearly zero.
This structure means the market is overwhelmingly betting on a rise, and if the direction reverses, positions lacking hedging protection will be quickly liquidated.
Bitcoin's rally this week was significant, breaking through $76,000 and surpassing two major consolidation zones this year.
However, analysts at Greeks.live also pointed out another fact — this is a rare expiry day this year where the settlement price is above the max pain point.
The price has moved above the options max pain point, meaning a large number of call options are now in the money.
Holders of these in-the-money options are taking profits, and Gamma is shifting from buyers to sellers.
The stronger the price surge, the weaker the support provided by Gamma. $BTC On August 21, only 7 cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, with a sharp decline in traffic volume.
The United States announced the "most severe economic war in history" against Iran, escalating the US-Iran conflict.
Brent crude oil neared $95, and WTI broke through $86.
Geopolitics is pushing oil prices, oil prices are pushing inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are pushing Bitcoin and gold.
Gold has risen for three consecutive days, breaking through $4,600.
Bitcoin surged over 25% in a single week, breaking through $78,000.
The strong performance of traditional safe-haven assets has given Bitcoin the spillover effect of "digital gold." Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but some officials lean toward rate hikes, the US dollar weakened temporarily, and the US Treasury intervened in the long bond market. These three factors combined—dollar weakness, Middle East war, and suppressed long bond yields—create the perfect scenario for both gold and Bitcoin to rise simultaneously.
But one thing is worth considering: Bitcoin rose 24% in the past week, gold rose 5%, and Brent crude rose 5.6%.
Bitcoin’s increase is five times that of gold. Bitcoin is being traded as "high beta gold"—when geopolitical risks arise, it rises more sharply than gold; when geopolitical risks subside, it also falls faster than gold.
The $78,000 level prices in not only the debt narrative but also the gunfire in Hormuz. When the gunfire stops, the premium will also retreat. $BTC Is this a true bull market return, or just a massive bull trap? Don't blindly go all in!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
This rally in Bitcoin has truly ignited sentiment across the entire network.
In just three days, BTC violently surged from 64,000 to 78,000, a one-sided jump of 14,000 points.
In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $3.3 billion, with 90% being short positions wiped out.
Now the whole market sentiment has completely changed:
Two months ago, everyone was shouting bear market, breakdowns, and zero price;
Now the screens are flooded with: the bull is back, all in, charging to 80,000, 100,000 incoming!
Here, I must pour a bucket of the clearest cold water:
Don’t rush to define a bull market, and definitely don’t get carried away and go all in! This is a strong rebound, not a confirmed main uptrend!
1. Acknowledge the facts: this rally really has logic behind it, it’s not just a pump and dump
I’m not bearish nor denying the rally; this round of gains is indeed supported by solid fundamentals:
1. The US Treasury’s bond repurchase injections have loosened short-term liquidity, causing risk assets to collectively recover;
2. Large net inflows into BTC ETFs, with institutions putting real money in to support the bottom;
3. The short side is extremely crowded above, with massive short positions stacked between 68,000–72,000; after breaking through, a cascade of short squeezes triggered, the higher it goes, the more shorts explode, fueling further gains.
So this rally is not a fake spike; it’s the result of a triple resonance of news, capital flows, and short squeeze sentiment.
2. But! Three fatal flaws prove the bull market is not yet confirmed
Many only look at the gains, not the essence, which is the easiest trap to fall into.
1. The main driver of this rally is "short covering," not new perpetual buy orders
The $3.3 billion liquidations are mostly shorts stopping losses.
Short covering is a one-time buy; once done, it’s gone.
After clearing shorts, there’s no new long follow-through, so the rally can lose momentum anytime.
ETF inflows on a single day don’t indicate a trend!
A true bull market requires continuous net inflows over several weeks; a single day’s impulsive capital can’t support a major cycle reversal.
2. The macro turning point is just an expectation, not yet realized
Currently, it’s only short-term liquidity easing expectations.
The Fed hasn’t cut rates or shifted to easing.
All gains are priced on anticipation; if the reality falls short, it will trigger profit-taking and a sell-off.
3. Technicals are severely overbought; chasing higher is a death sentence
The daily RSI is already in extreme overbought territory, and the short-term slope is too steep.
Crypto’s iron rule: sharp rises must be followed by sharp corrections.
Such violent rallies detached from moving averages never fail to retrace for consolidation.
Just crossing the 200-day moving average is meaningless; holding above it, not breaking on pullbacks, and repeated confirmations define the real trend. History is full of fake breakouts that trap late buyers.
3. Precise key ranges for the future market (follow these exactly)
Strong resistance above: 80,000–82,000
This is a historically dense trapped zone and previous top chip peak.
The first touch will trigger a sharp pullback; absolutely do not chase higher!
Mid-level watershed: 70,000–72,000
The lifeline of this rally.
• Holding this on pullbacks means a continuation pattern with new highs ahead;
• Breaking below 69,000 decisively means this is just a super rebound, not a bull market start, and the market returns to weak consolidation.
4. The most correct trading mindset at this stage
1. Don’t go all in, don’t chase highs, don’t add leverage
The fastest way to lose money in a bull market is to get overleveraged when the market just heats up.
The current frenzy is exactly the same extreme emotional state as two months ago’s panic.
2. A true bull market always gives a second chance to enter
A real major trend never finishes with a one-day explosive rally.
The classic early bull pattern: violent surge → deep pullback → solidify bottom → then start main uptrend.
3. All current signals are "suspected bull," not "confirmed bull"
Continuous ETF inflows + Fed truly shifting + support holding on pullbacks
Only when all three conditions are met can we talk about a new bull market.
Right now, none are fully realized.
Final honest words
Those shouting bull market now
Are most likely the same people who shouted zero price two months ago.
The market can go up, but it can also fall back anytime.
Heat, rebounds, and profit opportunities ≠ trend reversal.
Making money is hard; don’t get harvested by FOMO emotions.
Save your ammo, wait calmly for pullbacks, and stay cool — you’ll last longer than reckless all-ins.
⚠️ Risk reminder: This is only a personal market review and discussion, not investment advice. Crypto markets are highly risky; always strictly control your position size. The U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks from 2 billion to 4 billion, suppressing long bond yields and weakening the dollar.
Ray Dalio of Bridgewater publicly recommends allocating gold and Bitcoin to hedge debt risk.
The Iran war has pushed oil prices up, and gold has risen above $4,600.
Bitcoin is being traded as "digital gold." These three factors combined have driven it from $62,000 directly up to $79,000.
But how long can the Treasury's intervention last? Even Bassett himself said the market is "a bit overreacting." After a brief decline, long bond yields are under pressure again, and the intervention effect lasted less than a day.
Dalio's allocation advice is a long-term logic and won't change tomorrow's trend. The Iran war premium could also fade at any time due to a ceasefire announcement.
Tomorrow's direction near $79,000 depends on which of these three variables changes first.
If there are signs of easing in the Iran situation, the war premium will quickly dissipate. If long bond yields rise again, the dollar's weakening trend may be reversed.
If ETF inflows slow down, spot buying will immediately come under pressure. The $79,000 level is not driven by strong bulls but by macro factors. When the macro winds calm down, the price will return to where it should be.
$BTC #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？
1. Opening valuation severely overdraws future expectations (fundamental reason)
The issuance price-to-earnings ratio is already 219 times, while the industry average is only about 38 times.
The opening surged to a market value of 444.9 billion, corresponding to a non-recurring net profit of 591 million, with a price-to-earnings ratio close to 800 times.
This price essentially prices in all the high growth expected over the next 5-10 years in advance.
The market's neutral reasonable expectation range was originally 150-200 billion, but the opening more than doubled that, indicating a huge valuation bubble.
2. Shareholding structure: Concentrated profit-taking by lottery winners
New stocks on the STAR Market have no price limits for the first 5 days, and the initial circulating shares are very small, only 7.44% of shares are tradable, making the float light and easy to be driven up or down by capital.
• The original cost of lottery shares was only ¥150.8, with huge unrealized gains at the opening; the highest profit per lot was ¥470,000, so the willingness to cash out is very strong.
• The turnover rate on the first day was 85%, with many low-cost lottery winners selling at high prices; the buyers were short-term funds chasing the high.
On the second day, without low-cost lottery funds to continue supporting, buying power dried up, selling pressure released, and the stock price plunged.
3. Performance growth has shown signs of slowing
Revenue in 2025 is expected to increase by 332% year-on-year, an explosive growth.
But in Q1 2026, revenue growth slowed to 68%, and non-recurring net profit declined by 52.55% year-on-year.
The company forecasted that growth will continue to slow in the first half of the year, with profits squeezed by large increases in R&D and sales expenses.
The market gave an 800x valuation based on "300% annual high growth," but with growth already slowing, the valuation cannot be sustained.
4. Logic of positive news realization: "First humanoid robot stock" is realized upon listing
Before listing, the market long speculated on the expectation of the "first humanoid robot stock," with a large amount of capital pre-positioned in the sector.
When the actual listing occurs, it is the "boot dropping, positive news realized" moment.
Once the story becomes reality, capital no longer pays for distant narratives and begins to scrutinize real commercialization issues.$BTC $ETH #BTC延续强势, can capital flows be sustained? • Reasons for the surge: Short closing and liquidation of 3 billion + Treasury Secretary's bond buyback + 1 billion in ETF inflows in four days + White House regulatory sweets, four forces forcing shorts, not pure retail bull • Has the bull come? Technical bull market (weekly chart +20% breaks the 200-day moving average), but not a confirmation of a long bull • True bull signal: BTC breaks 94.8k (pre-2026 high), continued ETF inflows, September CLARITY approved, Powell leans dovish • False bull risk: Empty depletion above 78k, 30Y retraces 5.3%, ETF outflow→ pullback at 75k/2.3k • Operation: Not chasing 78k, wait for 75k (BTC) / 2.3k (ETH) to see support; Break 70.8k/2.2k to reduce positions. In short: short squeeze rebound ≠ long bull. 78k is the turnover zone, not the bottom. The real or false will be decided in September.$BTC #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 Bitcoin (BTC) Rigorous In-Depth Analysis
Important Note: Our country prohibits virtual currency trading speculation. The following is only an objective review of overseas market logic and does not constitute any investment advice. Bitcoin is a high-risk speculative asset, traded 24/7 without price limits, with significant drawdown risks.
I. Asset Nature and Underlying Mechanism
Bitcoin has no cash flow, no interest, no credit endorsement from any entity, with a hard cap of 21 million coins, produced through mining, halving approximately every four years to reduce new supply.
1. Supply Side: Halving reduces new circulation, but halving is a condition for supply contraction, not a sufficient condition for price increase. Historical data shows that as market capitalization expands, the price elasticity from each halving diminishes progressively; the supply shock effect weakens continuously and must be matched by incremental demand to realize a rally.
2. Network Effect: The strongest network effect in crypto, with the most complete liquidity, custody, and derivatives infrastructure, serving as the benchmark asset for the entire crypto market.
3. Market Structure Evolution: Deep institutionalization has been completed; the US spot ETF has become the main institutional entry and exit channel; ETFs act as two-way valves, allowing large inflows and large-scale redemptions, not a one-way buying reservoir.
On-chain data shows the proportion of long-term holders' positions continues to rise, with a large amount of chips settled in cold wallets; however, short-term traders and derivatives leverage still dominate short-term price volatility.
II. Core Pricing Drivers (Ranked by Weight)
1. US Real Yields (Primary Macro Constraint)
Bitcoin is a non-interest-bearing risk asset; opportunity cost is determined by US Treasury real yields.
• Real yields rising: Holding US Treasuries yields real returns, markets demand higher risk premiums for BTC, usually suppressing prices;
• Real yields falling: Opportunity cost of non-interest assets decreases, benefiting Bitcoin valuation.
Key objective phenomenon: Correlation is not constant. During liquidity crises, Bitcoin falls in sync with US growth stocks and does not have stable safe-haven properties; it cannot be simply equated to digital gold and only shows safe-haven behavior in specific scenarios.
2. Institutional Capital Flows (Spot ETFs, Whales, Corporate Holdings)
Daily net inflows/outflows of ETFs are the most direct incremental observation indicator currently.
• Sustained large net inflows over multiple days represent real institutional incremental entry; single-day pulse inflows have limited reference value;
• Sustained redemptions directly exert price pressure.
3. Regulatory Policy Narratives
US SEC legislation, regulatory lawsuits, and compliance access act as catalysts, not sole drivers of major trends; they accelerate existing market directions. Positive regulatory expectations can temporarily boost prices, but unmet expectations cause rapid pullbacks.
4. Halving Supply Cycle
A slow variable and long-term background condition, unable to independently drive bull markets. Past bull runs were driven by the synergy of halving, liquidity easing, and incremental capital; supply contraction alone cannot counter macro tightening.
5. Derivatives Leverage (Source of Short-Term Volatility)
Perpetual contract funding rates, long-short positions, and liquidations create short-term spikes and short squeezes.
⚠️ Important distinction: Leverage-driven rallies are stock gameplays and do not indicate trend reversals; mid-to-long-term trends require confirmation by spot capital. Many rebounds come from short covering, not new buying, and have poor sustainability.
III. Market Status and Key Price Levels
After reaching the historical high of $126,198 in October 2025, a deep correction occurred, and the market entered a consolidation phase of institutional and retail competition.
• Strong resistance zone: $78,000–$83,000: Dense historical trapped chips area. Breaking through alone is insufficient; a daily close above with spot capital inflow is needed to confirm a valid breakout. Larger resistance near $85,000 above.
• First key support: $69,000–$71,000, the platform of this rebound; falling back below this range casts doubt on the rebound's validity.
• Mid-term strong support: $60,000–$62,000, the previous large box consolidation center, dense on-chain cost absorption zone.
• Extreme bottom range: $57,000–$58,000, confluence of 200-week moving average and cycle bottom; a valid break opens deeper downside.
IV. Bullish Logic (Objective Opportunity Points)
1. Long-term supply constraint: The fourth halving has occurred, sharply reducing new mining output; long-term holders' chips continue to settle, exchange inventories are at multi-year lows, and circulating spot supply decreases.
2. Institutional base formation: Spot ETFs, family offices, and overseas enterprises have formed base allocations; institutional holdings hit new highs, irreversibly changing market participant structure.
3. Macro liquidity inflection expectation: If US inflation continues to fall and the Fed starts a rate-cut cycle, real yields decline, benefiting valuations.
4. On-chain valuation indicators at mid-to-low cycle levels: MVRV and other on-chain valuation metrics are not in historically extreme bubble zones, leaving room for allocation narratives.
V. Core Risks (Not to be Ignored)
1. Macro liquidity reversal risk: US inflation rebound, Fed maintaining high rates, real yields running high, continuously suppressing non-interest assets. This is the biggest current risk factor.
2. ETF capital two-way risk: ETFs allow large redemptions; institutional capital is not permanently locked; sustained net outflows directly cause selling pressure.
3. Heavy historical trapped chips: Large amounts of high-entry chips accumulated in the $78,000–$85,000 range; prices near cost zones mean selling pressure to break even will suppress upside.
4. Leverage backlash risk: After rebounds, long leverage can quickly accumulate; once trends reverse, cascading liquidations amplify declines.
5. Regulatory black swan: US crypto regulatory tightening and unmet policy expectations can rapidly shock market sentiment.
6. Cycle logic weakening risk: With huge market cap, the marginal impact of halving supply shocks weakens; historical cycle rules cannot be linearly extrapolated.
VII. Key Tracking Observation List (Rigorous Analytical Dimensions)
1. US 10-year real Treasury yield (macro master switch)
2. US spot Bitcoin ETF daily net capital inflow/outflow
3. On-chain indicators: MVRV, long-term holder positions, exchange BTC balancesLast night, Bitcoin once approached $80,000.
It wasn't because an ETF was approved. It wasn't because the Federal Reserve loosened monetary policy.
It was because Washington surrendered.
From August 18 to August 20, within 72 hours—SEC proposals, CFTC taking action, and the White House stepping up. The three-stage rocket of U.S. crypto policy ignited simultaneously.
This is not an ordinary positive news event. This is a watershed moment for U.S. crypto policy.
The enforcement era is over. The era of system building has begun.
The first signal: SEC (regulatory layer)
On August 18, the SEC officially proposed the "Crypto Asset Regulatory Rules"—the first time in history that financing rules tailored specifically for crypto assets have been introduced.
What was the situation with issuing tokens before? Either you didn’t register and waited to be sued, or you registered but couldn’t find a suitable channel. The SEC Chair himself said that in the past, the SEC was a "weaponized, aggressively enforcing agency targeting this asset class."
What about now? Two clear exemption paths—$5 million accumulated over four years, or $75 million annually. Moreover, once a project completes its core development, tokens can "graduate" and exit securities regulation.
What does this mean?
For the first time, there is a legal path to issue tokens in the U.S.
Not a gray area, not "waiting to be investigated"—but rules written in black and white.
The second signal: CFTC (backup layer)
On the same day, CFTC Chair Selig clearly stated that if Congress continues to delay, the CFTC will independently establish a crypto market regulatory framework using existing authority.
Two-pronged approach, not putting all eggs in one basket.
Selig even cited the 19th-century futures market history—when commodity exchanges were blocked by states as "gambling." What happened in the end? The U.S. established a unified federal regulatory framework.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
Today’s crypto is like the 19th-century futures market.
The third signal: The White House (political layer)
Trump met with about 20 industry executives from Coinbase, Ripple, a16z, and others in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, publicly calling on Congress to pass a "fair version" of the CLARITY Act.
Note, this is not a "discussion." This is the President personally endorsing and publicly pressuring Congress.
He said something worth pondering: "This will let the U.S. lead China and other countries."
Washington took 8 years to realize one thing: rather than pushing crypto companies to Singapore and Dubai, it’s better to keep them in the U.S. paying taxes.
The market is voting with real money.
Bitcoin has risen over 24% this week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023, once approaching $80,000. Coinbase surged 8.2% on Friday.
In the past 24 hours, 189,000 people worldwide were liquidated, with liquidations totaling $1.459 billion.
Short sellers were bloodied.
This is not retail FOMO. This is institutions repricing U.S. crypto assets.
What does this resemble?
Like after the 2000 internet bubble burst, when the U.S. established a clear regulatory framework for the internet.
No one back then could foresee today’s tech giants.
Today’s crypto industry stands at the same starting line.
What Washington is doing is not "cracking down on crypto"—it’s building a home for crypto.
The SEC provided financing rules, the CFTC provided a market framework, and the White House gave political endorsement.
The three-horse chariot started simultaneously.
To be honest.
In recent years, what the crypto industry feared most was not a bear market—it was uncertainty.
The SEC sues this one today, investigates that one tomorrow. Projects dare not operate in the U.S., users dare not trade in the U.S. Talent and capital flee overseas.
What about now?
Rules are here. Framework is here. The President is on board.
Uncertainty is turning into certainty.
And certainty is the fuel for a bull market.
What’s next?
On September 15, the Senate will hold a key vote on the CLARITY Act.
If it passes with 60 votes—the U.S. crypto industry will enter a truly legal era.
If it fails—the CFTC has already said, we’ll do it ourselves.
Either way, the direction is set.
Washington spent 8 years and finally made a choice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Gold has strongly broken through the $4600 mark, showing an unusual trend: despite high U.S. Treasury yields, gold prices continue to surge. Traditionally regarded as a safe asset, U.S. Treasuries' safe-haven status is fading.
The core issue is no longer just an interest rate game. U.S. debt has surpassed 40 trillion, increasing fiscal pressure, and the market has begun trading sovereign credit risk. When bonds carry credit concerns, capital flows to gold, which has no issuer risk, as a reserve hedge. Global central banks are continuously reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves, amplifying this trend.
The market is clearly divided. Bulls believe gold has entered a major credit-hedging cycle with medium- to long-term upside potential; cautious voices warn that the recent sharp rise is crowded, and once the U.S. Treasury market stabilizes and recovers, gold will face a sharp correction, so blind chasing is unwise.
Personal view: U.S. Treasuries have not completely lost their safe-haven function, but an additional layer of credit risk premium has emerged. Only when the debt crisis intensifies will gold continuously squeeze bond allocations; under normal conditions, both still serve their respective roles.
Mapping to the crypto market, gold's strength benefits the "digital gold" BTC narrative. But it is important to distinguish that gold is a safe haven, while Bitcoin is more of a risk asset and not fully synchronized. A surge in gold prices does not necessarily mean crypto prices will follow; the main market drivers remain ETF funds and U.S. Treasury yields.
In practice, do not chase gold at high levels; be cautious of rapid fluctuations in crypto markets caused by changing macro expectations. Going forward, focus on tracking long-term U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. fiscal-related statements.Hidden Risks Amid the Surge: The More the Short Squeeze, the More Caution Needed for "Longs Killing Longs"
This weekend's market action was both exciting and nerve-wracking. Here's a clearer summary of the core logic and trading approach:
1. Market Status: Unusually Strong
· Tremendous momentum: $BTC, $ETH, $XAU have all risen for three consecutive days, with sideways movement replacing pullbacks. The short-term rally even surpasses the main uptrend expected in 2024-2025.
· Obvious short squeeze: The surge of over ten thousand points left no breathing room for shorts, and a batch of positions in the futures market must have been "wiped out overnight."
2. Driving Forces: Policy-Driven Market, Not a Bull Market
· Core driver: This rally stems from a chain reaction triggered by "long-term treasury bond repurchases," combined with Trump’s phase-specific positive expectations.
· Capital divergence: Retail investors have low participation due to previous losses; institutional whales’ buying power hasn’t reached bull market frenzy levels, making this more of a policy-driven pulse rebound.
3. Market Outlook: Beware of "Longs Killing Longs"
· Pullback inevitable: Severe short-term overextension means a sharp drop will follow the surge, and the magnitude won’t be small. Major players have strong profit-taking motives and will likely "quietly crush" chasing long positions.
· Real opportunity: When liquidity further expands at the end of August, a larger-scale rally is expected, which will be the best window.
4. Trading Strategy (Recommendation)
· Watch more, trade less: The current risk-reward ratio is very poor; chasing the rally or shorting is like playing with fire. Waiting and observing is the optimal choice.
· Risk control first: If you can’t resist trading, be sure to strictly stop losses, reduce leverage, and prioritize preserving capital.
This short squeeze is truly exhausting; resisting the urge to chase is commendable. Since the major move is expected at the end of August, it’s better to conserve strength these days.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Is Trump about to "issue a coin" again?
What’s more worth paying attention to this time is not that there’s another Trump coin to speculate on, but that Trump’s media is trying to bring the traditional shareholder reward mechanism onto the blockchain.
Simply put, this type of Token is more like a reward certificate, with the core logic being to provide on-chain rewards to eligible shareholders, rather than directly launching a new cryptocurrency for free market trading.
Currently, there is no clear evidence in public information indicating it will open a public secondary market, nor can it be directly determined whether it will be listed on centralized or decentralized exchanges.
So the three questions that deserve the most attention now are:
Can it be transferred?
Can it be traded?
Will it really be listed on exchanges?
If these conditions gradually open up in the future, its nature may change significantly.
But before these things are realized, it’s still a bit too early to directly compare it with $TRUMP.
There is also another issue.
While Trump is promoting crypto regulation, he is also connected to family crypto businesses, and conflicts of interest have always been a focus of public discussion.
Especially facing the midterm elections, this "politics + crypto" combination itself is prone to controversy.
So what’s really worth watching this time is not whether it will surge.
But whether traditional stock rights can truly be moved onto the blockchain through Tokens.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 This round of $BTC rally is not just a technical rebound.
Expectations of improved liquidity, a weaker dollar, and concentrated short squeeze together pushed the price up to $75,000.
But a short squeeze can only explain the "fast rise," it cannot guarantee "stability."
The next thing to watch is not how many shorts remain, but whether spot and ETF funds can continue to absorb the buying.BTC is still in the "bottom confirmation" phase, and the price-level bottom confirmation is already very strong.
The strongest evidence is:
* BTC around $78,096
* 200WMA only $64,163
* Safety cushion has reached +21.71%
* Newhedge MVRV-Z rose to 0.87, moving from deep undervaluation into the recovery zone.
But today we must add a yellow alert:
1k–10k BTC: single day -32,706 BTC, 7 days -13,070 BTC, 30 days -16,449 BTC.
Since at the same time the >10k BTC group had a single day +29,521 BTC, there is likely a significant address tier-crossing/aggregation effect here, so I will not overturn the bottom confirmation judgment based on this item alone for now.
Currently, I still subjectively maintain the probability that "60–64K is already the final bottom area of this round" at about 85%–90%; the probability of falling back to 52–55K has been compressed to about 3%–5%.
In the next 24–72 hours, the most important factor is no longer the 200WMA, but whether this -32.7K BTC in the 1k–10k BTC range is an address migration or if the big whales have really started to continuously distribute in the 75–78K range. If the next data returns positive, the bottom confirmation will continue to strengthen; if the 7-day distribution continues to expand and BTC loses 70K, then the short-term probability of retesting 67–70K will significantly increase. $xMU Micron YTD up 231% but underperformed the market this week, September 29 earnings report is the next critical point
YTD up 231% but underperformed this week
Micron $966.78, -0.77%. YTD still +231% from $285 start. But this week BTC rose 24%, Micron only up 2.83%, and fell on Friday. The storage sector collectively declined, Western Digital -2.05% the worst.
NAND third but spot weak
Q2 NAND market share rose from 13.9% to 15.1%, surpassing Kioxia to become third. ASP rose sharply, the main reason for revenue growth. But DRAM spot supply and demand remain weak, NAND trading momentum is also weakening.
September 29 earnings report is the critical point
Micron reports earnings on September 29, but Nvidia reports earlier on August 26. If NVDA earnings miss expectations, the entire AI hardware chain including Micron will be dragged down. This is the biggest short-term risk for holding Micron.
Market divergence
Optimists see NAND third + three-line progress + FA undervaluation; cautious point out P/E 27x is not cheap + spot weakness + NVDA earnings risk. Overall fundamentals are improving but volatility will be high before September earnings, waiting for $900 to confirm support $ETH from 1900 to 2549: After a 34% short squeeze, will it continue charging or take a halftime break?
$ETH peaked at 2549, starting from around 1900, with a cumulative increase of over 34%, breaking through the 2200, 2400, and 2500 levels without significant pullbacks.
The momentum behind this rally comes from multiple factors:
First, a chain reaction of short liquidations. After breaking key levels, high-leverage short positions were liquidated in succession, fueling accelerated gains.
Second, an improved macro environment. Expectations of a US "mini QE" and a decline in long-term US Treasury yields have supported risk assets.
Third, continuous inflows into ETFs, accelerating institutional allocation.
Currently, 2550 is a short-term key resistance level. If it can hold with volume, the next target is 2700-3000. If there is volume without price increase or a long upper shadow, the risk of a short-term pullback rises.
After a 34% gain, profit-taking has accumulated sufficiently. The trend is upward, but chasing highs requires assessing the risk-reward ratio.
Whether the bull returns or not is unknown, but rhythm is more important than direction.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $CORE has been above the 60-day moving average for the third day! Many people are already enjoying 3U, 6.9U! Wondering where the end point this time will be! Sharing a personal view: right now it's a broad rally, a collective recovery after a lot of decline. For now, it can only be seen as a rebound, just like many other projects that have just crossed the 60-day moving average a few days ago! It's just that the rise looks more intimidating! As mentioned before, it needs to stay above for more than a week to possibly see a reversal! To really have a big market move, it needs an independent narrative, to develop an independent trend, so everyone can get the expected results! So for now, everyone still needs to be patient! What should come will come back eventually, and what shouldn't come, no matter what you think, won't! Don't swing from extreme panic to extreme confidence just because of short-term ups and downs! Stay steady, just be a firm holder!$BTC Violent rally, mainstream altcoins collectively linked, but only $OKB held steady sideways. What's the logic behind this? This round of BTC short squeeze is quite interesting: ETH, SOL, and many mid- and large-cap coins all clearly followed the rise, forming a typical beta-wide rally. However, OKB neither followed the rally nor dropped sharply, maintaining a range-bound consolidation and establishing an independent "stabilization" rally. It's not that it doesn't fluctuate, but that buying and selling pressure cancel each other out, forming a strong equilibrium. 1. Why Most Altcoins Can Rise in Sync, But OKB Remains Steady 1. This round of altcoin rally is driven by retail speculative funds, which is completely different from platform coins. This wave of altcoin rebounds is mainly due to retail investors missing out after BTC's sharp rise to gamble on highly elastic altcoins, earning short-term sentiment premiums. This is a rebound driven by a rapid increase in risk appetite. - Regular altcoins: betting on narrative and short-term hype; once market sentiment warms up, speculative funds will quickly push them up; - OKB (platform token): Does not speculate on short-term sentiment; pricing is anchored to the exchange's real performance. Its rise requires a substantial increase in OKX spot and contract trading volume, increased fee income, and strengthened buyback and burn expectations before the market will kick off. Simply put: counterfeit speculation on expectations; OKB speculates on real business data. The market has just started, trading volume hasn't fully expanded, and the results haven't been realized yet, so funds lack the incentive to actively push OKB. 2. On one side there is selling pressure, on the other is bottom position support, and the price is firmly stuck within the range, so...Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Performance Outlook (Based on Market and Analysis Around August 22, 2026)
Currently, BTC is around $77,000–$78,500 (up about 20%-24% this week, marking the strongest weekly gain since 2023), and ETH is above $2,500. The market is driven by short squeeze, Treasury buybacks, favorable policies, and ETF inflows, with sentiment entering the greed zone.
Bitcoin (BTC) Short-Term Key Levels and Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Bull-Dominated):
Most technical analyses suggest bulls still control the situation, with the next important target at the $80,000 psychological level. If BTC can hold steady at $77,000–$78,000 and break out with volume, it could test the $80,000–$82,000 range. Some analysts set the year-end 2026 target near $100,000 (the "bear tail turning bull start" view).
Consolidation/Correction Scenario (High Probability Short-Term):
RSI is clearly overbought (daily often above 80), so after a rapid rise, high-level oscillation or pullback is likely. Key support is at $75,000–$76,000 (previous highs/breakout level), with deeper support around $72,000–$73,000. Falling below $70,000 could trigger a deeper correction.
Risk Points: After rebuilding leveraged positions, if spot buying fails to keep up or macro data worsens, volatility will increase once short squeeze momentum fades.
Ethereum (ETH) Short-Term Key Levels and Scenarios
Bullish Scenario:
ETH shows relatively strong momentum, having broken through key moving averages and approaching/testing the $2,500 level. If it breaks and holds above, the next target could be $2,600–$2,800. The ETH/BTC ratio still has potential upside (some analyses point to about 30%-40% relative gains). Institutional allocation interest has recently favored ETH.
Consolidation Scenario:
Support is around $2,400–$2,450, with deeper support near $2,300. The overall structure is cleaner than BTC, so the correction magnitude may be relatively limited.
Common Drivers and Risks
Bullish Continuation Factors:
• U.S. Treasury liquidity support + pressure on long-term rates.
• Positive regulatory signals (progress on the CLARITY Act).
• Continued net inflows into ETFs + accumulation by large whales.
• Positive spot and perpetual demand (some on-chain analysis suggests weakening bear market signals).
Main Risks:
• Profit-taking after short-term overbought conditions.
• Jackson Hole meeting and subsequent macro data may trigger volatility.
• If ETF inflows slow or regulatory progress disappoints, the sustainability of the rally will be challenged.
Comprehensive Judgment
• Short term (a few days to 1-2 weeks): High probability of initial high-level consolidation to digest gains; direction depends on holding $75,000–$77,000 (BTC) and above $2,400 (ETH). The bullish structure remains, but chasing highs carries higher risk.
• Medium term (next few weeks to quarter): If capital and policies align, continuation upward is likely, with BTC testing $80,000 and ETH strengthening further. Some optimistic views have begun discussing higher year-end targets. $BTC