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SHIB burn increased by 1,395% — is it really a price driver? 🔥
In July, over 3.2 billion SHIB were burned, a 1,395% increase compared to the previous month. This news helped SHIB rise about 17% and attracted speculative capital back.
However, from a financial perspective, what matters is not how much the burn increased, but how much it represents of the total supply.
SHIB still has a circulating supply of hundreds of trillions of tokens. So, 3.2 billion tokens sounds large, but the actual impact on supply is still quite small. This is why many experts believe the current effect is more psychological than economic.
For sustainable price growth, SHIB needs more than just a burn campaign. What the market will watch are new users, activity on Shibarium, trading volume, and real usage demand. Burn only becomes effective when accompanied by ecosystem growth.
In my view, burn is a catalyst that helps SHIB regain investor attention, but long-term momentum must come from real demand and new capital inflows. 📈#CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交
The CLARITY Act is 72 hours away, and the motion has yet to be submitted.
The CLARITY Act was not on the Senate agenda today. The recess starts on August 7, giving a full 72-hour window.
The actual window is even shorter. Wednesday (August 5) is the last chance to submit a cloture motion, which requires 16 senators' signatures. After Wednesday, it will be too late.
Even if the motion is signed on Wednesday and the cloture vote on Friday gets 60 votes, the Senate can still debate for another 30 hours. The vote is only on "whether to begin consideration," not the bill itself. The recess starts on August 7, and the bill hasn't even started being reviewed.
The market pricing is already very pessimistic. Polymarket gives a 31% probability, down from 74% at the beginning of the year. Galaxy Research cut from 50% to 30%. After Monday's agenda was released, Kalshi also dropped to 33%.
Where is it stuck? In three places.
Ethics provisions. The White House and Democrats are still arguing over the president's relatives' crypto holdings. The Trump family made $1.2 billion from crypto, and Democrats say the bill can't be discussed without resolving this. The White House received a compromise proposal on July 31 but has not responded yet.
Stablecoin yields (Section 404). Banks say deposits could lose $1.3 trillion, while the crypto industry says this stifles innovation. Both sides are still tugging.
The 60-vote threshold. Republicans have 53 seats, so at least 7 Democrats need to be pulled in. Currently, only two or three Democrats publicly support the bill, which is far from enough.
My view:
This bill is very unlikely to make it before the August recess. It's not a technical issue; both sides simply don't want to give the other a political win before the election. After the September session resumes, there will be only two months left before the midterms, and who will have time to handle crypto legislation? Attention will be fully on the election campaign. The legislative window for 2026 is effectively closed.Last night, the application layer's Palantir and tonight's $XAMD can be said to be two heavyweight reports delivered in the AI sector.
Palantir delivered a perfect earnings report with revenue soaring 93% and U.S. commercial business surging 149%, directly proving that AI can generate real profits on the application side. Its stock price also rose sharply after hours. However, its valuation remains relatively high this year; this earnings report is more about restoring confidence rather than triggering a new round of rapid growth.
Tonight, it's AMD's turn to report from the chip layer. The market's main concern is not whether demand is sufficient, but whether it can truly secure its position as the "second choice after NVIDIA." The key points to watch are whether its AI chips can continue to scale up, whether it has secured substantial orders from more major clients, and whether the profit margin on server CPUs can be maintained.
Overall, these two earnings reports send a signal: the demand side for AI is becoming increasingly solid. Whether selling software or computing power, there are profits to be made. The current divergence is no longer about "whether it can be done," but has shifted to details like valuation and market share realization.
In the stock market, valuation essentially reflects market confidence. When market sentiment is high, high valuations can be absorbed; but when the market returns to rationality and investors become cautious, even if a company's fundamentals are strong and its story compelling, excessively high valuations are hard to sustain. After all, in investing, the overall trend often holds more power than individual judgment. #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% $SNX - 1.65
Trend: DeFi Derivatives Base 📊
Key Levels: Support $1.50 | Resistance $1.88
Setup: Rebound setup forming above daily accumulation shelf. #Korean Leveraged ETF Trading Volume Drops 90%, Volatility Narrows
Korean ETF trading volume plummeted 90%, is this really bearish for BTC?
Recently, the trading volume of popular single-stock leveraged ETFs in Korea has shrunk significantly from its peak, with some products seeing nearly a 90% drop in volume. Many investors, seeing this data, worry that global risk capital is withdrawing and even believe it will drag down BTC's performance.
However, in reality, a sharp drop in trading volume does not mean all funds have exited; it more likely indicates the market is "deleveraging."
Why is this happening?
Previously, the Korean market experienced a wave of AI concept stock investment fever, with large amounts of capital using single-stock leveraged ETFs like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics to amplify returns. However, high leverage also amplified market volatility. As Korean regulators introduced restrictions, including raising investment thresholds and limiting single-stock leveraged ETF position ratios, speculative funds began to cool rapidly, and trading volume sharply declined accordingly.
For the crypto community, the real point of concern is not the drop in ETF trading volume but the change in global risk appetite.
If the volume decline is merely due to regulatory suppression of excessive speculation, the market will be healthier in the long term. After deleveraging ends, funds may flow back into fundamentally stronger assets, including BTC, ETH, and quality tech stocks. In fact, some international institutions believe that after deleveraging in the Korean market, foreign capital has already begun repositioning in semiconductor and AI sectors.
However, caution is still needed in the short term.
The Korean market has long been seen as an important barometer for Asian risk assets. If deleveraging continues to expand, causing a significant drop in global risk appetite, BTC could still be affected by sentiment in the short term. But if the Korean stock market gradually stabilizes, U.S. tech stocks remain strong, and Bitcoin spot ETFs maintain net inflows, the crypto market may have a chance to enter a recovery phase.
For traders, the biggest takeaway from this news is: don’t just focus on the "90% drop in trading volume," but pay attention to where the funds are going. If funds are merely leaving high-leverage ETFs and moving into spot stocks, BTC, or ETFs—more stable assets—this may not be bad news; what truly warrants concern is if funds flow entirely into safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar or U.S. Treasuries.
Therefore, this cooling of Korean ETFs looks more like a market deflation rather than a full-blown risk asset crash. After deleveraging ends, the market often seeks new leading themes, and whether BTC can absorb this portion of risk capital will be a key signal to watch in the coming weeks.$BTC closed at $63,820, up only 0.76% intraday, yet it still couldn't break out of the $63,000 to $64,900 range. The S&P 500 broke above 7,600 intraday, just one step away from a record high, the Nasdaq strengthened in tandem, the VIX fell to 15.6, and risk-on sentiment clearly rebounded. Big tech is booming across the board, and AI narratives are fermenting again. In this environment, shorting Bitcoin itself comes with headwinds. But the driving force behind the rally is not healthy. The funding rate turned slightly negative, with spot institutional premiums at minus $63. In the past four hours, the number of short sellers exposed far exceeded the long positions. This rebound was driven more by a pulse driven by forced liquidations by bears rather than genuine buying entrance. $ETH is the weakest today, at $1,868, with both daily and 4-hour charts being empty. $SOL is just following the trend and not trading independently. The Fear of Corruption Index is 28, yet still remains in fear. Previously, the cooling of geopolitical conditions and oil prices fell to $80.4 eased interest rate hike concerns, and the macro aspect indeed gave risk assets a breathing room. However, the daily MACD bar is at negative 393, the bearish alignment has yet to reverse, and the 1-hour KDJ indicator J value has surpassed 100, indicating a clear short-term overbought signal. Chasing long positions at this level can easily cause sharp needle, and naked short chases may lead to repeated losses in a forced bearish rally. The best option is to patiently wait for the daily closing direction. Only when the price reaches 64,900 will it count as a short-term strengthening, and if it falls below 63,000,#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
Latest data: The Federal Reserve was still implementing rate cuts at the end of last year, but the trend will completely reverse by 2026. At the July policy meeting, 9 votes maintained the interest rate unchanged, while 3 hawkish officials opposed and demanded a 25bp rate hike—the highest number of dissenting votes in the same direction since 2016. All viewpoints are fully disclosed and laid out.
The logic of the two main internal factions is very clear: dovish officials believe inflation has gradually declined and there are signs of slowing employment, insisting on waiting and watching for a subsequent rate cut window; three hawkish voting members publicly stated that Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed up oil prices, causing inflation stickiness, and the economy is too resilient. The current rate suppression is insufficient, so a rate hike is needed to prevent an inflation rebound.
The current chair has abandoned the previous clear forward guidance and no longer provides the market with rate expectations in advance, instead making data-driven decisions on the spot, further amplifying market divergence. This internal tug-of-war directly pushes up U.S. Treasury yields and continuously suppresses risk capital in the crypto space, leading to more market volatility.
Personally, I remain cautious and do not bet on a one-sided rate expectation. I will wait for inflation and nonfarm payroll data to be released before planning operations, still believing that the market trend will gradually return.
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
$BEAT
This represents only personal views and does not constitute investment advice. Capital Flow — The Mystery of ETF Inflows Disconnecting from Price
$1.075 $XRP has shown a phenomenon puzzling analysts: continuous ETF inflows while the price keeps falling.
On-chain capital flow analysis:
XRP has achieved net ETF inflows for three consecutive weeks. However, ETF inflows have not offset the pressure from the derivatives market. Open interest has dropped to 2.23 billion $XRP. Whales account for 77.8% of XRP outflows on exchanges. Santiment data shows whales are continuously accumulating. At the same time, whale transaction counts have declined.
This divergence of “ETF buying, price falling” indicates selling pressure comes from other channels — possibly Ripple’s monthly unlocks or early holders taking profits.
Support and resistance levels:
Support: 1.0751 → 1.0692 → 1.0528 → 1.04. Resistance: 1.0759-1.0760 → 1.0952 → 1.12 → 1.1354.
Whale activity:
Whales increased holdings by 70 million from July 9 to 15. Large wallets hold 3.8 billion XRP. But whale trading volume plunged 97% — increasing holdings but reducing trades indicates whales are holding long-term rather than short-term trading.
Bullish factors:
CLARITY Act progress. Ripple expanding into institutional markets. $XRP revaluation expectations heating up.
Bearish factors:
XRP fell below the daily 20-day EMA near $1.08. Price is below MA5, MA10, MA30. KDJ shows a bearish crossover. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% #Palantir Revenue Up 93%, After-Hours Up 13%
Palantir delivered an earnings report that silenced the shorts. Revenue reached $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year, with a 13% rise after hours. The full-year guidance was raised to $8.15 billion, and U.S. commercial revenue increased 149% year-over-year. The stock price had fallen 29% this year but reversed sharply in a single day with this 93% growth report.
Palantir is confirming one thing:
The real demand for AI applications is materializing, not just hype. The 149% growth in U.S. commercial revenue shows enterprises are buying AI products in bulk. The significant upward revision in guidance means demand visibility is extending. Palantir’s 13% gain sets the tone for earnings season; the quarterly numbers are just the entry ticket, the guidance sets the price.
Impact on BTC:
Palantir’s better-than-expected results directly boost AI-related sentiment. If AMD delivers strong results tonight and tech stocks continue to rally, BTC, as a high-beta asset, will benefit in sync. If AMD falls short, sentiment may dip short-term, but the fundamental AI demand remains intact. The optical communication and storage sectors have recently led the rebound; after Palantir confirmed AI application demand, the certainty for compute hardware demand will only strengthen.
What’s next:
Palantir confirmed AI application demand, AMD will validate AI chip demand tonight, SpaceX will validate Starlink’s profitability, and Circle will validate the stablecoin business model. Palantir’s 13% gain has already set an example for the market; if the others can replicate it, the entire tech sector’s sentiment will be fully restored. Think about it. $BTC $ETH $SNDK#韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成，波幅收窄
South Korea's leveraged ETF trading volume plunges 90%, volatility narrows
South Korea's ETF trading volume has plummeted by 90%. Why should BTC traders be more cautious instead?
Recently, a data point from the South Korean market has drawn widespread attention: the trading volume of some popular leveraged ETFs in South Korea has sharply shrunk compared to their peak periods, with some products seeing a nearly 90% drop. This change is not because the market suddenly lost traders, but the result of rapid cooling of high-risk leveraged funds following a series of regulatory restrictions by South Korean authorities.
Many think this is just a matter concerning the South Korean stock market and has little to do with the crypto space.
In fact, South Korea has long been one of the most active crypto markets globally, and changes in South Korean investors' risk appetite often transmit to the crypto market.
In recent months, a large amount of capital flowed into AI concept stocks represented by SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and their leveraged ETFs, pushing market turnover to new highs. But as regulations tightened, investor participation thresholds rose, and trading costs increased, leveraged ETF trading volume rapidly shrank, and market speculative sentiment clearly cooled.
What does this mean for the crypto space?
In the short term, market risk appetite may be somewhat affected. When leveraged funds start to contract, some investors reduce allocations to high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Therefore, BTC, ETH, and highly volatile altcoins may face some pressure.
But from another perspective, this is not necessarily a bad thing.
Previously, the South Korean stock market's sharp volatility was largely driven by leveraged funds. Now, regulatory cooling helps reduce extreme market fluctuations. If the South Korean stock market gradually returns to rationality, global capital risk appetite may stabilize again, which would be a medium- to long-term positive for risk assets including BTC.
For BTC traders, what deserves more attention is whether there will be capital outflows from the South Korean market. If the decline in leveraged ETF trading volume is only due to regulatory restrictions but funds remain in stocks or crypto markets, the impact is relatively limited; however, if funds continue to withdraw from the South Korean market and flow into safe-haven assets like the US dollar or US Treasuries, BTC may continue to face short-term pressure.
Therefore, the truly noteworthy point of this news is not the "90% drop in trading volume," but that the risk appetite in the South Korean market is changing. The next key signals to watch are: whether the South Korean stock market can stabilize, whether Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, and whether the South Korean exchange's "kimchi premium" rebounds. If these three indicators improve simultaneously, it indicates market sentiment is recovering; otherwise, the crypto market may remain highly volatile in the short term.
What do you think? Is the retreat of leveraged funds in South Korea the start of healthy market development, or a signal that risk assets are entering a correction cycle? $SPCX earnings report tonight, followed by a massive unlocking of 900 million shares on August 6.
Previously, no one dared to buy because its chip structure was too much like a meme coin, with the vast majority of chips held by the project team, causing a severe imbalance between longs and shorts. A good company ≠ a good short-term price. Unlocking pressure, valuation, and changes in circulating shares are all real issues. Even if SpaceX is great, it doesn't mean the stock price will immediately rise in the short term.
There is currently a huge divergence in capital. Bears focus on unlocking and valuation. Bulls focus on Starlink growth, AI infrastructure, and future potential. Yesterday, after the stock price bottomed at $104, it quickly rebounded above $115, which looks very much like a panic sell-off being released.
Tonight's earnings focus entirely on Starlink. Although users surged to 10.3 million, the revenue per user dropped from $99 to $66. So tonight, everyone cares about one core question: has growth translated into profit?
If the earnings prove it has started making big money, market logic will instantly reverse. People will no longer care about unlocking selling pressure and will scramble to buy, with a large number of short positions at risk of being squeezed.
Trading can't be rigid; as long as the stock price can hold firmly above $110, the short-term trend has clearly turned positive. Tonight's earnings guidance will directly determine whether this unlocking will crush the market or if the Starship will take off.
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 2026.8.4 Market Analysis: The Risk Chain of JPY, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC
【Why the Yen Weakens Despite Intervention】
Recently, Japanese authorities intervened in the forex market with about 11.7 trillion yen, equivalent to approximately $73.3 billion, but the USD/JPY rate remains near 157, keeping the yen in a decades-long weak zone.
The intervention funds come from foreign exchange reserves. If Japan needs to continue disposing of dollar assets to raise funds, it could create a dangerous chain: pressure on dollar assets and U.S. Treasuries → rising Treasury yields → dollar strengthening again → yen under renewed pressure → Japan continues intervention.
The more they try to save it, the weaker it gets; the weaker it gets, the more they have to save it, potentially evolving into a "robbing Peter to pay Paul" scenario, with both sides under pressure.
【This Is Also a Battle to Defend U.S. Treasuries】
The 30-year Treasury yield once rose to around 5.28%, returning to levels last seen around 2007. Such long-term rates create a challenging environment for U.S. stock valuations, gold, and BTC liquidity.
Around July 31, the U.S. and Japan coordinated to stabilize the yen. I don't believe the U.S. acted solely to help Japan; a more important consideration might be that if Japan continues to intervene by disposing of dollar assets, the U.S. Treasury market itself will face greater pressure.
From my perspective, this is not only a yen defense battle but also carries the meaning of defending U.S. Treasuries.
【The Fundamental Contradiction Remains the Interest Rate Differential】
I have repeatedly mentioned that forex intervention can only ease short-term fluctuations and cannot eliminate the fundamental pressure of yen depreciation.
Currently, the Federal Reserve's target interest rate remains at 3.50%–3.75%, while the Bank of Japan's policy rate is about 1.00%, a difference of approximately 2.50–2.75 percentage points. As long as this interest rate gap remains significant, the yen will continue to face arbitrage and capital outflow pressures.
【Two Key Windows to Watch in August】
The first is around 20:30 Beijing time on August 5, when the U.S. Treasury will release its quarterly refinancing announcement. Focus on the upcoming months' bond issuance scale, the ratio of short-term to long-term debt, and whether there will be an increase in 10-year and 30-year bond supply. This is a crucial point to assess future U.S. Treasury supply pressure.
The second is the U.S. Treasury auctions from August 11 to 13 local time:
August 11: 3-year;
August 12: 10-year;
August 13: 30-year.
All correspond to early morning Beijing time the next day. The strength of demand in these long-term auctions will directly affect yield trends and market risk appetite.
【Who Will Bear Pressure First: U.S. Stocks, Gold, or BTC】
If long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, U.S. stock valuations will face pressure first; gold and BTC may also experience synchronized volatility due to tightening liquidity.
Looking at BTC's current 4-hour chart, the price remains within a descending channel, and rebounds have not changed the overall structure. Given the simultaneous weakness in macro liquidity and technical patterns, I currently see no reason to abandon the short-selling logic.
Of course, if the price effectively breaks through and holds above the upper boundary of the descending channel, the short-selling logic will need to be reassessed. Until then, I maintain a bearish bias.
The above content is solely my personal market analysis and trading thoughts and does not constitute any investment advice. Please manage your position size and risk according to your own situation. | Macro Thinking: How Market Expectations Shift from "Rate Cuts" to "Rate Hike Concerns"
At the beginning of the year, the market unanimously bet on the Federal Reserve starting a rate cut cycle, expecting 2-3 easing moves within the year; within just a few months, expectations completely reversed, the rate cut narrative faded, and the market began repricing the possibility of rate hikes. This sharp turnaround in expectations is not due to a sudden change in the central bank’s stance but is the result of multiple realities progressively overturning the old logic:
1. Inflation stickiness exceeds expectations
Core inflation’s decline has slowed continuously, still far from the 2% target. Repeated Middle East geopolitical conflicts disturb crude oil prices, and energy price volatility could push prices up again at any time, limiting the Federal Reserve’s easing space.
2. U.S. economy and employment show strong resilience
Consumption and non-farm payroll data remain robust, with no clear signs of recession. Historically, during hot employment phases, the Federal Reserve rarely cuts rates rashly to stimulate the economy.
3. Major shift in Federal Reserve policy framework
The new management team has weakened forward guidance, no longer providing the market with a fixed interest rate path; policy has returned to being "fully data-dependent." The stance is clear: rates are adjustable in both directions, rate cuts are no longer the default option, and if inflation rebounds, further rate hikes are possible.
4. U.S. Treasury supply pressure raises long-term risk premiums
The continuously expanding fiscal deficit and massive issuance of long-term government bonds, combined with ongoing overseas selling, have permanently pushed up the long-end yield center, with high rates maintained far longer than anyone expected at the start of the year.
Market Implications:
The era of cheap liquidity is over; **Higher-for-Longer** has become the new main theme.
High-valuation growth and long-duration assets like crypto continue to face pressure; capital prefers cash-flow-stable assets.
Key indicators to watch going forward: month-on-month inflation data, crude oil volatility, and non-farm employment.
Trading approach: Do not cling to the old belief of "rate cuts sooner or later." Adjust dynamically with data and expectations, strictly control position sizes, and avoid unilateral subjective forecasts. #FromRateCutsToRateHikes, FedDisagreementsFullyExposedJapan has already intervened in the foreign exchange market with a cumulative amount close to $170 billion this year to stabilize the yen.
In just four months, it has launched three rounds of large-scale forex interventions.
On one occasion, the single-day intervention scale even approached $59 billion, an unprecedented intensity.
However, each time the yen is rapidly strengthened, it quickly falls back again.
The reason is not complicated—the interest rate differential has not changed.
As long as the interest rate gap between the US and Japan persists, arbitrage funds will continue to borrow low-interest yen and convert it into dollars to invest in higher-yield assets, which is the core logic behind the yen's long-term pressure.
Data shows:
From the end of April to the end of May, Japan cumulatively invested about ¥11.73 trillion (approximately $73.6 billion) to intervene in the forex market;
At the end of July, it reportedly intervened again, with a single-day scale of about $59 billion, and possibly added another $36.6 billion the following day;
The three rounds of cumulative intervention have reached nearly $170 billion, with close to $100 billion invested in just the last 48 hours.
Such a large-scale capital injection clearly demonstrates the official determination to stabilize the exchange rate.
But it should be noted that forex intervention can mostly only affect short-term trends and cannot change the long-term trend.
As long as the US-Japan interest rate differential does not significantly narrow, the market's arbitrage logic still holds, and the yen may face selling pressure again after a rebound.
In other words:
Intervention can create short-term volatility and even squeeze some shorts; the real determinant of the long-term direction remains monetary policy and the interest rate environment.
Therefore, the future market focus is not only on whether Japan will continue to intervene but more importantly on whether the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will introduce new policy changes and whether the US-Japan interest rate differential will truly begin to narrow.
The above content is only a summary of market information and personal views, does not constitute any investment advice, please make independent judgments and pay attention to risks. #美日确认联合购汇 $BICO #Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours rise of 13%
I'm Cige, Palantir delivered an earnings report that silenced the bears. Revenue reached $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year, with a 13% after-hours increase. The full-year guidance was raised to $8.15 billion, and U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year. The stock price had fallen 29% this year but reversed in a single day with a 93% growth earnings report.
Palantir is confirming one thing:
The real demand for AI applications is materializing, not just hype. The 149% growth in U.S. commercial revenue shows enterprises are buying AI products in bulk. The significant upward revision in guidance means demand visibility is extending. Palantir’s 13% gain set the tone for earnings season; the quarterly numbers are just the entry ticket, the guidance sets the price.
Impact on BTC:
Palantir’s beat directly boosts AI-related sentiment. If AMD delivers strong results tonight and tech stocks continue to rally, BTC, as a high-beta asset, will benefit in sync. If AMD misses expectations, sentiment may dip short-term, but the fundamental AI demand remains intact. The optical communication and storage sectors have recently led the rebound; after Palantir confirmed AI application demand, certainty around compute hardware demand will only strengthen.
What’s next:
Palantir confirmed AI application demand, AMD will validate AI chip demand tonight, SpaceX will validate Starlink’s profitability, and Circle will validate the stablecoin business model. Palantir’s 13% gain has already set an example for the market; if the others can replicate it, the entire tech sector’s sentiment will be fully restored.
Cige is done. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise The duality of data……
More and more data is reaching cycle bottom levels; just like the monthly Trend Strength Index.
Other indicators, such as the Williams Fractal, suggest we have only completed the first of the three bear market lows.
So which one is correct?
My observation is that there is less and less data triggering each cycle top, while more and more data is triggering cycle bottoms. This means that most data reaching cycle bottom levels is very significant.
Indicators like TSI will stay low for a long time; indicators like the Williams Fractal will form the third swing low as usual, and the cycle will complete on time by the end of the year.The easiest place to get liquidated in the crypto space right now
is not during a downturn
but when the US stock market rallies
You might think altcoins can just blindly surge
$QQQ pulled up near 700
$NVDA rose nearly 3%
Tech stock sentiment is back
$BTC also recovered from around 62200
all the way up above 63400
Looks strong
But for structure 4, it’s not about how much it rose
it’s about whether the money can stay
The first layer is still the capital anchor
$BTC$ETH$BNB$SOL$LINK$AAVE$PENDLE$HYPE
These coins might not be the most exciting
but they have liquidity
support
and capital willing to come back repeatedly
For $BTC to truly open up space
it must hold above 64000
If it can’t hold
this wave should be seen as a retracement first
The second layer is elasticity observation
$SUI$ARB$OP$ONDO$SEI$ENA
$XMR
$KAITO
These can surge
but don’t blindly chase 50x leverage just because US stocks are rallying
Truly strong coins
have buyers on pullbacks
Fake strength
leaves you holding the bag after the pump
The third layer is the liquidation table
$DOGE$PEPE$WIF$BONK$SHIB$FLOKI$GIGGLE$BEAT$LAB$TRUMP$MEGA
This table is the best at riding momentum
When $BTC pumps
they act like the bull market is here
People post profit screenshots in groups
Someone makes 100,000 USDT on one trade
You get hyped
20x
50x
100x
Liquidation prices are right in front of the market makers
The darkest scenario tonight
is strong US stocks
$BTC pumps
altcoins surge
retail traders chase high leverage
Then $BTC fails to break through near 64000
One drop back
small coins get liquidated massively
Don’t fear missing out on altcoin parabolic pumps
Fear mistaking the risk appetite from US stocks
as a free pass for altcoins
$QQQ gives sentiment
$NVDA gives tech sector heat
But $BTC is the anchor
If the anchor doesn’t hold
the hotter the altcoins get
the lighter your position should be
Spot can be watched slowly
Don’t risk your life on contracts to prove a story
The above is market observation only
Not investment advice
Contract leverage carries extremely high risk
Invest cautiously#美日确认联合购汇
Why Must BTC Traders Pay Attention to the US-Japan Joint Currency Intervention?
Recently, the US and Japan's joint intervention in the forex market has become a global financial market focus. Facing the continuous depreciation of the yen, the two countries have rarely teamed up to buy yen, successfully pushing the yen to rebound from a temporary low. The market generally believes that if the yen weakens significantly again, further intervention actions by both sides cannot be ruled out.
Many people ask: What does the yen exchange rate have to do with Bitcoin?
The answer is: The yen is not just a currency but also an important indicator of global capital flows.
For many years, the market has seen the famous "yen carry trade." Due to Japan's long-term low interest rates, many institutions borrow yen at extremely low costs and reinvest in higher-yield assets such as US stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. When the yen continues to depreciate, this strategy usually proceeds smoothly; but if the yen suddenly appreciates, carry trade funds may be forced to close positions, triggering volatility in global risk assets.
This is why every time Japan intervenes in the exchange rate, not only the forex market tightens, but US stocks, gold, BTC, and ETH are also affected.
If the yen appreciates rapidly, some leveraged funds may reduce risk asset holdings, and BTC could face short-term pressure; but if the intervention only stabilizes the exchange rate without triggering large-scale deleveraging, market sentiment may gradually recover, and risk assets could see renewed capital inflows.
What’s more noteworthy is that this intervention involves the US. The market generally sees this as a signal that major economies want to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations impacting the global financial market. However, many analysts also point out that intervention alone is unlikely to change the yen’s trend long-term; ultimately, it depends on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy, US interest rates, and the interest rate differential between the two countries.
For crypto traders, the real takeaway from this news is not the yen itself but whether global liquidity is changing. If the yen stabilizes, the dollar weakens, US Treasury yields fall, and BTC spot ETFs maintain net inflows, Bitcoin still has the potential to remain strong; conversely, if the yen fluctuates sharply again, triggering global deleveraging, the crypto market’s short-term volatility could also significantly increase.
How long do you think the US and Japan’s joint intervention can stabilize the market? Will BTC continue to run independently, or will it be affected again by global capital flows? Feel free to leave your comments and discuss.The rate cut that the market had hoped for has yet to materialize, leading to disagreements within the Federal Reserve, with several members advocating for further monetary tightening. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and high interest rates are likely to persist for a long time. The situation directly affects various assets such as the US dollar, gold ($XAU), and stock markets, causing global capital markets to remain volatile. Market Impact 1: US $MU $SKHYNIX $NVDA $SAMSUNG $SNDK High interest rates remain long-term, U.S. Treasury risk-free yields rise, and funds will withdraw from risky stocks. High-valuation growth stocks such as AI and semiconductors, which rely on long-term earnings, will be hit hardest, with valuations compressed. The market will show significant divergence, with high-dividend stable sectors showing relative resilience, and Nasdaq volatility increasing noticeably, making it difficult for the market to break out of a full-blown bull market. 2. Bitcoin $BTC is now deeply tied to institutional funds, with its trend highly linked to US tech stocks. Bitcoin itself does not generate interest, and with high interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding it increases. Incremental funds are less willing to enter the market, making it hard to achieve a one-sided surge. Most of the market is range-bound, and once US stocks experience sell-offs, Bitcoin will also be under pressure and pull back. 3. Ethereum $ETH Ethereum is more volatile than Bitcoin, not only suppressed by macro interest rates but also affected by on-chain ecosystems and altcoin markets. When funds are on safe havens, they prioritize selling medium-risk crypto assets like ETH. Only when market liquidity is loose will it experience independent rebounds, and during high interest rate periods, the sustain of upward moments is poor. The biggest change at the Federal Reserve this yearIn the BTC-led market, altcoin rises are selective. The market confirms that it is not a market where all altcoins rise together, but one where only the surviving coins rise. Summarizing the data presented in the original text, the coins with clear capital inflows are JTO, JELLYJELLY, BTC, OPG, BTCSLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, and CHIP. On the other hand, BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, RAVE, SPACE, SOPH, IP, AVNT, ZAMA, OFC, PIEVERSE, VIRTUAL, ACU, H, and MEGA are classified as having lost upward momentum. The observation list includes MEME, EDEN, HUMA, ZKP, and METIS. The implication of this structure is clear: it is not a phase where overall market liquidity is expanding, but a phase where limited liquidity is moving to coins with specific stories and trading volumes. This is far from the broad-based rise commonly called an alt season. In this environment, BTC, ETH, SOL, TAO, WLD, HA piece of news easily overlooked by the crypto community: the Boeing 737 Max 7 has finally received FAA certification, and its stock price immediately rose by 5.6%. After nearly a decade of certification delays and the shadow of two crashes, it has finally landed — this is a classic case of "bad news fully priced in, the boot drops." The same applies to our industry: when a long-awaited regulatory or event boot finally drops, it often marks not the start of risk, but a turning point in sentimenMost altcoins won't rise together—this sounds like nonsense, but most people in the market just lose because they think they'll all rise together. Do you know how small the coins currently rising make up a small proportion of the total market? When I recently flipped through the gainers' list, my first reaction wasn't excitement, but alertness. Because most coins are actually flat, and truly sustained coins are just a small handful. This isn't a general rally altseason; it's a typical 'picky period'—money is only crowded into places with strong narratives, sufficient liquidity, and clear upside potential. Those who remain, many don't even have the energy to follow the crowd. My own trading rhythm is also changing: I no longer just buy by who's falling harder, but only by who is repeatedly confirmed by the capital. For example, $JTO, $JELLYJELLY, and $BTC clearly have funds maintaining their price structure, so their movements are relatively clean. Meanwhile, $BEAT, $EDGE, and $COAI have clearly seen their momentum retreat and failed to rebound, making them a typical case of "funds withdrawing but the narrative still holding on." Behind this lies a point that many people tend to overlook: the market is not a "general rise, fall" but a "structural pricing" pattern. This means money is not distributed equally when the water level rises, but is a choice made within an existing environment. So you'll find that BTC sets its direction, ETH watches institutional sentiment, SOL stands for high risk appetite, and coins like $HYPE, $DOGE, and $ZEC act more like thermometers of market sentiment—when they move, it often signals that risk appetite is quietly fading#ISM hits a four-year high, US Treasury yields fall
ISM data exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields decline, why is BTC benefiting instead?
Recently, the US ISM Services PMI data exceeded market expectations. Normally, strong economic data means the Federal Reserve has no need to rush rate cuts, which should be bearish for risk assets. However, the market showed a different trend — US Treasury yields actually fell, and risk assets like BTC and ETH received support. This has become one of the most discussed topics in the market recently.
Why does this phenomenon of "good data but yields falling" occur?
The key is that the market trades not the data itself, but future expectations.
The ISM exceeding expectations indicates that the US economy still maintains some resilience, and business activity has not noticeably cooled. This reduces market concerns about a "hard landing" in the economy, and investor risk appetite has somewhat warmed. At the same time, the market believes this data is not enough to completely change the future path of rate cuts, so US Treasury yields did not continue to rise but instead fell back. After yields decline, the attractiveness of holding bonds weakens, and some funds begin to flow back into stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets.
For the crypto community, what really matters is US Treasury yields, not the ISM data itself.
In recent years, whenever the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to fall, BTC often performs better. Because lower yields mean lower funding costs, improved market liquidity expectations, and institutions are more willing to increase allocations to BTC, ETH, and tech stocks.
However, traders should not be complacent. If future inflation data rises again, or Federal Reserve officials release stronger hawkish signals, US Treasury yields could rise again, and BTC might come under pressure once more.
Therefore, the real signal the market is sending this time is not "ISM exceeding expectations," but "funds are starting to embrace risk assets again." If subsequent tech earnings continue to improve, Bitcoin spot ETFs maintain net inflows, and US Treasury yields stay low, then BTC is likely to continue challenging key resistance levels; conversely, if yields rise again, the market may return to a consolidation pattern.
What do you think? Will this round of US Treasury yield decline become an important catalyst for BTC's breakout, or is it just the start of a short-term rebound? #韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成，波幅收窄
Folks! The recent moves in South Korea's leveraged ETFs are absolutely wild! Trading volume plummeted directly from 12.4 trillion KRW to 1.24 trillion KRW, shrinking by a full 90%! 😱 Previously, KOSPI fell cumulatively 18% over three days, then surged a record 17.91% on July 31, only to drop back 5.12% on August 3... This rollercoaster ride is enough to make anyone's heart jump out!
Now that leverage is basically squeezed dry, the question is: for the remaining storage stocks, is it "real demand" or "real selling pressure"? This directly affects the sentiment around the AI narrative!
My judgment: we’re entering a "real selling pressure" release phase first!
Why do I say that? The reasons are super simple:
- Much of that 18% drop was due to forced liquidations and panic selling, not because fundamentals actually deteriorated!
- But on the day of the 17.91% surge, the sentiment premium was way too high! Now that it’s given back 5%, it looks more like a normal "breath" after the sentiment tide recedes~
- Real demand won’t immediately step in after deleveraging; it needs time to confirm if the price is truly "cheap"!
So in the short term, storage stocks might still need to "grind it out," washing out purely speculative swing traders, leaving only the "real demand" willing to hold through the cycle!
Super cycle extended to 2029-2030? Weekly wild swings reflect fundamentals the least!
Institutions predict the storage super cycle might extend to 2029-2030, but I think: the wild weekly surges and drops actually reflect fundamentals the least!
The real pricing comes after deleveraging, when sentiment stabilizes within a price range! Right now, these fluctuations are purely sentiment and leverage "clashing"!
Honestly, I haven’t really touched leverage much during this period, but before I often used leverage, especially 50x or 100x on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Without other market moves, volatility wouldn’t be so big. Altcoins also use leverage, but I realized that using leverage almost always leads to liquidation. When the market moves sharply, it’s easy to get liquidated, so now I basically avoid leverage.
- Afraid of getting blindsided by rule changes! Margin increases are hard to predict in advance!
- Leverage profits from volatility, but rule changes alter the underlying logic! This risk is even less controllable than price swings themselves!
- Waiting and watching isn’t cowardice; it’s knowing which parts of the market you can’t profit from!
How about you? Have you been "educated" by the new margin rules this round? Come chat in the comments! 👇 🚨 Everyone is watching earnings... but the real story this week is happening inside the Fed.
Most traders are focused on quarterly reports, but the bigger signal is that the Fed's internal disagreement is no longer staying behind closed doors.
Three dissents at July's meeting were already rare. Now, some of the more hawkish members are openly reinforcing their views in public. Markets have barely reacted—and that lack of reaction is a signal in itself.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is quietly showing resilience.
Despite Strategy selling another 1,638 BTC, price continues to hold above $63K. Compare that with the 3,500+ BTC sale in late July that triggered much heavier pressure. Selling has become smaller, yet buyers are still stepping in.
That points to something more important than short-term speculation:
📈 Real demand appears to be absorbing supply.
The next test comes this week.
🔹 Will hawkish Fed commentary finally pressure risk assets? 🔹 Will earnings from AMD and SpaceX keep sentiment constructive? 🔹 Or will Bitcoin continue proving that buyers are willing to absorb every wave of selling?
So far, the market has remained surprisingly calm.
Whether that calm reflects strength—or complacency—is what traders should be watching next.
DYOR.
#Bitcoin #Fed #Crypto #Markets
#DailyOrbit #韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成, the volatility narrowed
Those who have been watching tokenized SK Hynix lately should have noticed it. A few days ago, the price fluctuated up and down by more than ten points, but in the past couple of days, the volatility has clearly subsided. The root cause isn't in the crypto world, but in South Korea—regulators directly raised the basic margin for single-share leveraged ETFs to 30 million KRW, effectively cutting off retail investors' leverage.
The effect was immediate: Leveraged ETFs related to Samsung and SK Hynix saw single-day turnover jump from 12.4 trillion won to 1.24 trillion won—a 90% drop—making it the most decisive forced deleveraging in history.
Looking back at the Korean stock market's performance this week, it dropped 18% over three days, then on July 31 saw a single-day surge of 17.91%, setting a record high, and then gradually pulled back over the past two days. Many people at the time talked about sudden changes in storage cycles and AI logic disproven, but to put it bluntly, it was all a farce involving leveraged funds.
When prices fall, it's a chain of strong liquidations in high-leverage trading, creating a deep pit created by excessive sell-offs; When prices rose, it was the concentrated shorts covering + bottom-fishing leveraged funds rushing in, forcing the historical gains out of force. The entire process was a capital game; the industry fundamentals did not fundamentally change within a week.
Now that leverage has been drained and trading volume has been cut to the knees, this is the real "naked swimming moment." The subsequent trend will truly reflect whether the remaining market is genuine institutional buying or if there is no clean selling pressure.
Here is my judgment:
There is real demand, but it definitely can't support the previous high.
The storage industry cycle is bottoming out and rebounding, AI-driven HBM demand continues to surge, and institutions even say the supercycle can last into 2029-2030—these major logics are sound. But previously, Korean retail investors used leverage to push valuations to an absurd level, essentially driving the next two or three years of performance growth into the stock price in advance.
After the wave of leverage retreats, valuations will inevitably return to fundamentals. There will be no more extreme single-day rallies of just over ten points; volatility will continue to narrow, gradually entering a phase of oscillating bottoming and industry trends.
For those of us who play tokenized stocks, this is actually a good thing.
Previously, many people complained that these underlying currencies were even more volatile than altcoins, with technical analysis completely ineffective. Essentially, they were swayed by the leveraged sentiment of Korean stocks, with emotions maxed out, making fundamental trading impossible. As leveraged funds exit the market, the trend will increasingly align with the real logic of the US stock storage sector, with stronger trend patterns, making it more suitable for swing and medium- to long-term positioning, without staying up late to monitor the market and avoid insertion.
Back to trading: when Hynix hit a low recently, I bought a little over a hand, then rebounded near the previous high and sold off. It's not that I'm pessimistic about the storage sector, but I know that rally is built on leveraged sentiment, with a weak foundation. If you hold for too long, you're likely to ride a roller coaster.
On the contrary, now that I've almost used up my leverage, I've started preparing to build positions in batches. Only prices without leverage disturbances are considered long-term prices.
Have you participated in this round of surges and crashes in the Korean stock market? Profited or trapped? Do you think deposit stocks can stabilize or continue to decline in the future?
$SKHYNIX $MU SOL's daily burn amount may surge from $47,000 to $650,000, with only two weeks left in the voting window
Validators have started signaling support for two related proposals this week. If ultimately approved, the daily SOL burn is expected to increase from about 650 tokens to 7,500–9,000 tokens, which at current prices translates to a maximum burn amount close to $650,000 per day. Another proposal plans to double the annual inflation reduction rate and reduce the new issuance of SOL by about 18.9 million tokens over the next six years.
However
Currently, the proposals have only received support for about 24.94 million SOL, accounting for 5.8% of the staked amount; by August 18, approximately 39.95 million more SOL need to join to reach the 15% threshold and enter the formal voting stage. Of the existing support, Helius alone contributes about 16.03 million tokens, indicating a relatively high concentration.
There is also an easily overlooked data point: even if the daily burn reaches 9,000 tokens, Solana's current daily new issuance is still about 60,000 tokens, so SOL remains in a net issuance state in the short term. The market may first trade on the expectation of tightening supply, but the actual impact will depend on the threshold, voting, and execution results.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 8.4 Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Midday Outlook
Short-term range oscillation, intensified long-short game, overall maintaining a consolidation and recovery pattern. Buy on dips near support, prioritize shorting on rallies, avoid chasing one-sided moves.
MA moving averages are intertwined and converging in the short term; the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages are almost flat. Price fluctuates closely around the moving averages with no clear one-sided trend, indicating a consolidation phase.
BOLL Bollinger Bands are narrowing; the upper band at 4109 forms strong resistance, the middle band at 4061 acts as the dividing line between bulls and bears, and the lower band provides support below. The price is compressed and oscillates within the channel.
MACD, DIFF, and DEA are tangled near the zero axis; the red histogram momentum is weak, bullish strength is not strong, and there is no sustained volume increase, limiting upward attack momentum.
KDJK value is 58.31, D value is 48.00; the indicator is in the middle range, neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for price movement in both directions.
The US-Iran situation remains tense; the US signals diplomatic negotiations, Iran directly denies negotiation facts, and the Strait of Hormuz dispute remains unresolved.
The situation repeatedly disturbs the market; geopolitical risk sentiment fluctuates, causing gold to quickly spike and then fall back. Avoid blindly chasing highs or selling lows.
Trading advice: Short at 4065-4085, targets at 4030, 4000, 3970. A piece of news easily overlooked by the crypto community: the Boeing 737 Max 7 has finally received FAA certification, and its stock price immediately rose by 5.6%. After nearly a decade of certification delays and the shadow of two crashes, it has finally landed — this is a classic case of "bad news fully priced in, the boot drops." The same applies to our industry: when a long-awaited regulatory or event boot finally drops, it often marks not the start of risk, but a turning point in sentiment. When looking at event-driven moves, don’t just look at the direction; consider how much of the expectation has been fulfilled. Among those boots still hanging over $BTC, which one do you think will drop soon? Let’s wait and see. #DailyOrbit #FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch 很多人问我现在行情怎么做？其实趋势交易的核心就是”顺势而为”。 💰 实盘数据说话：
这单 BTC 20倍空单，目前浮盈 +141.88 U，收益率稳稳站在 +27.46%！
开仓均价 64,349，现在价格 63,482，虽然只跌了不到900刀，但杠杆放大了收益。 ⚠️ 重点看这里：
保证金比率控制在 14.43%，强平价在 88,298。
这说明什么？说明仓位管理做得好！没有满仓梭哈，给了行情波动的空间，心态才能稳得住。 现在的市场情绪依然偏空，大饼带头回调，山寨币更是血流成河。这时候千万别盲目去接飞刀抄底，宁可错过，不要做错！🙅♂️ 记住，在这个市场活得久比赚得快更重要。落袋为安才是真金白银！💸 $BTC #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% $ZEC 【ZEC Consolidates at 486 — Bulls and Bears Await a Break】
ZEC has been hovering around $486 for days, with barely 2% volatility — range-bound and waiting for direction.
News: Founder Zooko Wilcox is pushing the "payment currency" narrative; community retroactive funding proposal is in progress, with an August 15 deadline. The SEC investigation has been closed, and Grayscale has filed an ETF application — positive for the long term. However, bans in the EU and the Philippines remain a concern.
Technical: $486 is the chip concentration zone. Resistance above at 490-495, support below at 473-480.
Strategy: Follow on a volume-backed break above 490; exit below 473; stay patient in between.#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% $BTC $ETH 夏普率是个陷阱 最近看到一条消息刷屏。一个前OpenAI研究员，靠着一只名叫「态势感知」的对冲基金，用接近4倍的杠杆重仓AI硬件股，短短一年半把450亿美刀的盘子做到了年回报439%。一时风头无两，人称AI股神。 然后就是教科书式的塌方。他重仓的AI硬件股在7月集体暴跌，做空的对冲标的却逆势上涨，多空两头挨打。4倍杠杆把每一次回落都放大成致命伤，银行追加保证金的通知一封封砸过来，他被迫抛售持仓，陷入越卖越跌的死亡螺旋。7月30日，他把剩余约60亿美刀的公开市场股票，以骨折价甩给了城堡投资。450亿的传奇，缩水到约100亿。第二天，他那些被清掉的AI股，集体暴涨。 更让人唏嘘的是，这一切恰好发生在他婚礼的前一个周末。市场无情，时机也残酷。 网上有人锐评，说别只盯着他那439%的收益率。把超额收益率拆开看，是夏普率乘以波动率。他的夏普率估计不会高，那么高的收益只能来自巨高的波动，再叠加上那么高的杠杆，爆仓几乎是必然。 这个拆解说得真好。超额收益率等于夏普率乘以波动率，不是一种玄学，而是夏普率定义式的恒等变形。上学时我们学速度等于路程除以时间，把它倒过来，路程等于速度乘以时间。夏普率也是这样MicroStrategy sold coins again. 1,638 coins at an average price of $63,957, nearly $12,000 below the cost line of $75,419. A single transaction book loss of $19 million. The last sale was in early July, 3,588 coins sold for $216 million; this time the scale is half as much, but the loss is greater. The key point is that this time they sold below the cost line, marking the first time selling at a loss.
First, let's talk about where the money went—it was used to pay preferred stock dividends. A 12% annualized dividend that must be paid. This is different from previous understanding; the market previously assumed MicroStrategy was a buy-only, never-sell long holder, but now that assumption is broken. Moreover, they sold twice within six weeks, totaling over 5,200 coins, indicating they really need cash to maintain financial operations, not just a one-off event.
Next, looking at the actual market impact, $104 million is a very small portion of Bitcoin's daily trading volume and can be absorbed in a day. But the truly interesting part is the psychological impact: even the largest holder has to realize losses to liquidate. Once this narrative spreads, it may shake some retail investors.
Now, the most important point to watch. MicroStrategy itself said that the condition to start buying coins again is for the preferred stock price to return near the issue price. Currently, it is about 10% short. What does this mean? The preferred stock market does not recognize this valuation; investors are trading at a discount, indicating the market's pricing of their credit risk is rising. If the 10% gap cannot be closed, they can only continue selling, not buying. If it can be closed, MicroStrategy will become a buyer again. So watching how much they sell is not very meaningful; watching when the preferred stock discount narrows is the key.
This sale itself is not a huge negative, but what is truly worth noting is that MicroStrategy has entered a new phase, shifting from buy-only to both buying and selling. Their market impact method has changed; their purchasing power is tied to the preferred stock market, and before credit repair, they can only be sellers. When the preferred stock discount returns near the issue price, that will be a signal of market confidence recovery.
$MSTR $BTC $STRC
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 📊 Bitcoin's bigger picture remains a market of patience—not certainty.
From a broader perspective, $BTC is still trading within a larger corrective structure. However, several lower- and mid-timeframe signals suggest that selling pressure may be starting to ease.
Here’s what stands out:
🟢 Positive developments
- Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-day moving average.
- Price continues to hold near the 200-week moving average, a level many investors consider a key long-term trend indicator.
- Despite negative headlines—including institutional selling, Coldcard security concerns, and renewed discussions around quantum computing—Bitcoin has recovered instead of making fresh lows. That resilience can sometimes indicate that bearish sentiment is becoming exhausted.
⚠️ Challenges remain
- BTC is still trading below its longer-term trend channel.
- The previous cycle high near $69K remains a major resistance level.
- Several higher-timeframe moving averages still need to be reclaimed before the bullish case becomes more convincing.
For now, the most likely outcome may be continued sideways price action with periods of elevated volatility until the market establishes a clearer direction.
Key themes to watch in the months ahead:
• Geopolitical developments
• U.S. crypto legislation, including the Clarity Act
• Advances in quantum computing
• The U.S. midterm election cycle
At the end of the day, price action matters more than headlines.
Stay flexible, manage risk, and let the market confirm the next major trend before making high-conviction decisions.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
$BTC
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise#DailyOrbit The Fed's internal split moving into public view is the more important development this week, not the earnings cycle. Three dissents at July's meeting was already unusual; now the hawkish minority is speaking openly outside the committee room. Markets have shrugged it off so far, which is itself data.
BTC holding above $63K while Strategy trims another 1,638 coins is the cleaner read on underlying demand. The prior sell in late July was 3,500-plus; the scale is shrinking, and price is not breaking. That suggests real absorption, not just speculative float. The AMD and SpaceX prints this week and whatever tone the hawkish Fed members set will test whether the tape stays this steady or the bid finally thins out.
DYOR.
#OKXOrbit#FedSplitGoesPublic #PalantirBeatAndRaise #BigTechEarningsWatch Yesterday the market was terrified, and today it started scrambling to accumulate again. Why?
It's not because the economy suddenly improved, but because oil prices fell.
Brent crude dropped 4.7% in a single day, and U.S. stocks immediately rallied:
🔥 Nasdaq up 2.1%
🔥 S&P up 1.5%, just about 0.1% away from an all-time high
🔥 Dow up nearly 700 points, hitting a new closing high
Now the market’s switch is very clear:
Oil price up = worries about inflation, worries about rate hikes, tech stocks get hit;
Oil price down = inflation pressure eases, funds buy back growth stocks.
So don’t just focus on tech stocks; going forward, you should pay more attention to crude oil and U.S. Treasury yields. They are the real remote controls for global risk assets right now.Top 3 Most Important Things Today
1. Coldcard Hardware Wallet Vulnerability Continues to Escalate, Losses Exceed $100 Million, Confidence in Self-Custody Shaken
In recent days, Coldcard (Coinkite) has been affected by a 2021 firmware entropy generation flaw, allowing attackers to offline reproduce weak seeds and sweep wallets. Galaxy Research tracks losses rising from about $70 million to nearly $90 million–over $100 million (approximately 1367+ BTC, involving thousands of addresses) as the incident enters its fifth day. This event has sparked widespread discussion on whether hardware wallets are truly secure, with some funds flowing back to exchanges.
Why it matters: It directly challenges the core narrative of Bitcoin's "self-custody supremacy," potentially suppressing retail holders' willingness to hold in the short term and accelerating the adoption of multisignature and stronger entropy verification practices.
Possible impact: Bearish (sentiment and short-term price) / Neutral to bullish medium to long term (promotes industry security upgrades)
2. Strategy Increases USD Reserves by $250 Million and Repurchases $81 Million STRC, Funds Mainly from Stock Sales
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold about 3.01 million shares of MSTR common stock through an ATM program from July 27 to August 2, netting $290.6 million, of which $250 million was directly used to increase USD Reserve to $4 billion; simultaneously, it sold 1,638 BTC (about $105 million) to pay preferred stock dividends and repurchase approximately $81.2 million of STRC (912,143 shares). BTC holdings now stand at 842,138 coins. This move extends the USD duration by 57 days to 2.3 years and tightens STRC's BTC credit spread by 5 basis points.
Why it matters: Clearly demonstrates the company's current capital management priorities—prioritizing strengthening USD liquidity and preferred stock credit rather than simply hoarding coins. The combination of selling stock to increase reserves and selling coins to pay dividends/repurchase reflects the practical implementation of its "Digital Credit Capital Framework."
Possible impact: Neutral to bullish (enhances financial flexibility and STRC stability), but somewhat challenges the short-term "buy and hold only" narrative
3. U.S. Senate Has About 4 Days Left to Pass the CLARITY Act, Regulatory Implementation Approaching a Critical Moment
Accounts like Bitcoin Magazine urge contacting senators, and industry players like Coinbase emphasize the bill's significance for consumer protection, innovation, and U.S. competitiveness. Meanwhile, some argue Bitcoin itself does not depend on this bill, but the U.S. needs it.
Why it matters: Regulatory clarity is a key catalyst for further institutional and banking entry; missing the window could delay progress until after the midterm elections.
Possible impact: Bullish if passed, neutral to bearish if failed Will the US debt collapse?
I know many people have been most concerned about two things recently: one is whether the AI bubble has burst, and the other is whether the US debt will collapse. Actually, these two issues can be discussed together, or rather, it's not just these two issues, but also whether the US will decline, whether the dollar will depreciate, and what ordinary people should do.
First of all, there is currently only one solution to the US debt problem, which is to cut interest rates—if interest rates do not drop, the speed of expansion of US debt will only accelerate, and the pressure will increase. This pressure can only be relieved by consuming external interests, such as exploiting allies and using hegemony to force others to comply, but doing this too much will provoke public anger, and it certainly cannot continue indefinitely. So although we don't know exactly when the rate cuts will start, they will definitely be implemented. I said this months ago, and I still say it today.
What about inflation rising after the rate cuts? The timeline for AI is very tight; it must generate enough strong value increments before then to offset the inflation caused by rate cuts. So, has the AI bubble burst? Not at all. AI is just getting started. To be honest, every AI-related stock in my portfolio has been profitable over the past year (performing much better than my crypto holdings, although I don't want to say this, but it's a fact), and AI still has a long period of growth ahead because both the US and China need AI to solve their own difficulties. They will definitely continue to invest massive resources into AI and related industries.
But this growth cannot continue indefinitely. Many years from now, AI will inevitably face its super bubble moment. This is a rule, not because AI itself wants a bubble, but because any market involving a large number of human participants will eventually reach such an extreme. At that time, valuations of many AI companies will plummet back to reality, with the good and bad mixed together; many will even die off and be reshuffled. When the blood supply to the AI sector is cut off, the dollar, US debt, inflation, and everything else will explode, leading to a global economic crisis—that will be the time to expect a Nasdaq correction and crash.
What to do? The US has only one move left: to raise interest rates to fight inflation on one side, and on the other side, print unlimited money to repay US debt—this will be the script for the next 10 years, with almost no alternative at every step. So US debt will definitely not collapse, but the dollar will definitely lose value.
What will appreciate significantly? Gold is 100%, Bitcoin is very likely, AI stocks will first go through a frenzy, then a crash, and then long-term appreciation. Anything in other industries with monopoly competitive advantages will be the first to enjoy dividends; the rest are uncertain. The worst is to hold only cash, and the second worst is to have only "past skills."
The strong survive the waves of change. Previously, we thought the "adults" who made a lot of money were powerful, but if you observe carefully, they are slowly becoming nothing in front of the younger generation; similarly, those who make a lot of money now, if they don't update themselves, will face the same fate in 10 years, fading away in the face of massive inflation, because after every major inflation, the most efficient and best way to make money belongs to new fields and new methods.
This is the map of the future, and it belongs only to those who have prepared in advance. $BTC #ISM hits a four-year high, US Treasury yields fall in response In July, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, marking a four-year high. New orders, production, and employment sub-indices all strengthened, directly confirming the resilience of the US industrial recovery. Theoretically, this would push inflation and rate hike expectations higher, driving US Treasury yields up, but the market moved in the opposite direction, with both short- and long-term US Treasury yields falling simultaneously.
There are two core reasons for this divergence: First, the ISM prices sub-index clearly cooled down, easing market concerns about sustained industrial goods inflation; combined with easing Middle East conflicts and a sharp drop in crude oil prices, the inflation risk premium quickly dissipated, leading funds to flow into US Treasuries for safety. Second, the market places more emphasis on internal policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve. Even with strong economic data, several members worry that high interest rates will drag down the economy, limiting the probability of significant rate hikes this year, prompting bulls to actively bet on long-term bonds.
Additionally, prior sustained rises in US Treasury yields had accumulated a large number of shorts, and after the data release, shorts covered heavily, further pushing yields down. This market behavior reflects that current inflation expectations weigh more heavily than economic growth prospects. In the short term, US Treasury yields may remain volatile. Going forward, close attention should be paid to oil prices and core CPI data; if inflation rebounds again, yields will still face upward pressure. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Selling $173 million worth of BTC call options, this trader is betting not on a drop, but that it won't rise above $70,000
A sizable $BTC options trade just appeared.
According to on-chain monitoring, a trader sold a total of 2,709 BTC call options expiring on September 25 with a strike price of $70,000 through GreeksLive, corresponding to a notional value of about $173 million, collecting premiums of approximately $3.03 million. As long as BTC does not break through $70,000 at settlement, this premium can basically be retained; conversely, if it clearly surpasses $70,000, the short position risk will continue to expand with the price.
What’s interesting about this trade is that it’s not betting on BTC necessarily falling, but rather that the upside over the next 52 days is limited.
At the time of the trade, $BTC was around $63,900, about $6,100 below $70,000, requiring roughly a 9.5% increase. The price per option was 0.0175 BTC, about $1,118; total premiums represent about 1.75% of the $173 million notional principal, translating to an annualized yield of approximately 12.15%. The implied volatility given by the market is 31.48%, indicating the trader is willing to bear the risk of volatility expansion in exchange for the continuous decay of time value.
From the Greeks perspective, the total Delta of this position is about -654 BTC, while Theta is positive. Simply put, BTC sideways movement, slow rises, or pullbacks are relatively favorable for the seller; the biggest risk is a sudden accelerated breakout. Especially as the price approaches $70,000, the Gamma effect will rapidly increase position sensitivity, and without spot or perpetual contract hedging, the risk will exceed the $3.03 million premium.
Therefore, this cannot be directly interpreted as a “whale fully bearish” stance. More accurately, it’s a bet that the short-term probability of a sharp rise is overestimated: BTC can rise, but preferably not above $70,000 before September 25.
What’s truly worth watching next is whether the $64,000–$65,000 range can turn into effective support. Once stabilized, the $70,000 strike price will gradually become a market magnet; if it falls back near $62,000, option sellers will be much more comfortable. Selling volatility looks quiet but actually earns slow money, while potentially bearing the risk of a sudden sharp candlestick spike.
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 During the Bitcoin sell-off at the end of June, derivatives traders were basically wiped out.
Bitcoin fell below $58,000 on July 1, and since then, the daily liquidation amount has remained well below this year's typical range of $400 million to $500 million, indicating that despite macro shocks, forced selling pressure is minimal. "The crypto market's smaller decline compared to leveraged stock themes is because the 'fuel' for forced selling has been exhausted."Summary in one sentence: Palantir, which once relied solely on government contracts for revenue, is now being eagerly paid by enterprise clients, with Q2 revenue surging 93%, and its stock soaring 13% after hours.
Key data at a glance:
· Total revenue $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected $1.81 billion
· U.S. commercial revenue up 149% year-over-year — this is the real "nuclear-level" signal, showing explosive demand for enterprise AI
· U.S. government business also up 90%, both legs running fast
· New contracts $3.37 billion in a single quarter, free cash flow surpassing $1.2 billion for the first time
· Full-year guidance raised sharply from $7.65 billion to $8.15 billion, management extremely confident
Why is the market so excited?
The market used to criticize Palantir for being too dependent on government contracts, but now enterprises are starting to spend heavily on AI applications. The remaining contract value for U.S. commercial business surged 124% year-over-year, indicating this is not a one-off deal but long-term subscription growth. CEO Karp is playing the "sovereign AI" card — enterprises want to control their own data rather than feeding it to large models as training material, a positioning that precisely hits the biggest security concerns of enterprises.
Key highlights for you:
1. 149% — U.S. commercial growth rate, the brightest number in this earnings report, completely reversing the market's "government-dependent" bias
2. $3.37 billion new contracts + $1.2 billion free cash flow — very high-quality growth, not fueled by burning cash
3. Full-year guidance raised by nearly $500 million — management says "at least another strong 18 months," very confident
4. After-hours up 13%, but still down about 30% year-to-date — no matter how good the performance, don’t forget valuation and macro sentiment impact
---
$PLTR $SNDK $NVDA
#PalantirRevenueUp93% #AfterHoursUp13%
#AICommercializationEnteringRealizationPhase
#SovereignAINarrativeBeingPricedByMarket
⚠️ This article is only a summary of earnings data and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; decisions should be made cautiously. 🚨 The 30-year US Treasury yield just hit 5.23%—a level not seen in nearly two decades. Is this just another market milestone, or the start of something much bigger? 👀
The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond climbed to 5.23%, marking a 19-year high. The last time yields were around this level was just before the 2007 financial crisis, making this a move that investors across every asset class are watching closely.
The biggest debate in the market right now isn't about who's right or wrong—it's about whether this is truly the peak.
📉 The bullish view: If the US economy begins to slow and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts strengthen, long-term Treasury yields could gradually move lower.
📈 The bearish view: With the US fiscal deficit continuing to widen and Treasury issuance increasing, investors may demand higher returns to hold long-term debt, keeping 30-year yields elevated for longer.
The 30-year US Treasury has long been considered the benchmark for global asset pricing.
When it stays above 5%, the impact goes far beyond the bond market. It can trigger a re-pricing of US stock valuations, real estate financing costs, gold, and even cryptocurrencies.
$BTC $SNDK $HOME
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise BTC fell from its cycle high of about $126,200 in October 2025 to $57,800, with a maximum drawdown close to 50%. Now that the price has returned to around $63,000, the market has once again seen two sharply different voices: one side believes the bear market is over and that this is the starting point of a new bull market;
On the other hand, some believe this is just a temporary correction within a downtrend. Considering the halving cycle, ETF capital flows, macro environment, and market structure, my current judgment is: the main upward phase of the fourth halving cycle is most likely over. Currently, it is closer to a shallow bear market or a mid-stage deep correction under institutional markets, which is not enough to confirm that a new main rally has begun. 1. Cycle Position: The main upward window is likely over. Key time points in this round: April 20, 2024: BTC completes its fourth halving. October 6, 2025: BTC hits a high of about $126,200. June 2026: BTC falls back to a low of about $57,800. August 4, 2026: BTC trades around $63,000–$64,000. Historically, BTC cycle peaks usually occur 17–18 months after a halving. The peak of this round occurred about 17.5 months after the halving, with a time structure closely aligned with historical cycles. This means: From a cyclical perspective, the previous main rally is very likely complete. The more important question now is not whether the bull market will continue, but at what point and when this correction will ultimately complete its bottoming. 2.$BTC
The South Korean Financial Services Commission announced that starting from August 4, a new anti-fraud system will be officially implemented. According to the new regulations, banks, telecom operators, law enforcement agencies, and virtual asset exchanges can share information related to suspected voice phishing scams on a unified analysis platform without prior individual consent in specific anti-fraud scenarios. At the same time, the new rules also optimize emergency call blocking, account freezing, and fraud case investigation processes.
Many people’s first reaction upon seeing this news is: "Does this mean regulation is getting stricter?"
In fact, the focus of this policy is not to crack down on cryptocurrencies, but to combat fraud conducted using cryptocurrencies.
In recent years, South Korea has frequently experienced telecom fraud cases, where many scam groups lure victims to transfer funds into virtual asset exchanges, then quickly convert them into cryptocurrencies and transfer them to overseas wallets. Due to the fast speed of blockchain transactions and low cross-border costs, once funds are transferred on-chain, the difficulty of recovery increases significantly.
After the new regulations take effect, information flow between banks, operators, and exchanges will become more efficient. For example, when a bank detects an abnormal transfer, a telecom company identifies a scam call, or an exchange detects suspicious deposit or withdrawal activity, relevant risk information can be shared immediately with other institutions, enabling faster freezing of involved funds and breaking the fraud chain.
For ordinary investors, this is actually a positive development.
On one hand, it will be harder for scam funds to be laundered through legitimate exchanges, which is expected to improve overall market security; on the other hand, the risk control capabilities of compliant exchanges will be further enhanced, helping to boost institutional investors’ trust in the crypto market.
Of course, this also means exchanges may strengthen identity verification, source of funds checks, and large transaction monitoring in the future. For legitimate investors, as long as the source of funds is legal and trading behavior is compliant, the impact is usually minimal; but for those using crypto assets for fraud, money laundering, or illegal fund transfers, regulatory enforcement is expected to intensify significantly.
In the long term, such policies reflect a global shift in regulatory thinking—not to restrict cryptocurrency development, but to establish a more comprehensive risk management system. For the crypto community, combating fraud and increasing market transparency helps improve the industry’s image and is more conducive to attracting long-term capital and institutional investors into the market.
What do you think? Will stricter anti-fraud regulations make the crypto market safer, or will they affect users’ trading experience? Feel free to share your views in the comments section. Bitcoin has accumulated as many as 890,000 BTC at the single price level of $63,000, showing an extreme distribution. Excluding the 550,000 BTC locked by Coinbase in the $83,000 to $84,000 range, the accumulation at this price level may have exceeded 1 million BTC, accounting for about 5% of the total circulating supply. Historically, exceeding this scale has basically triggered a significant fluctuation.
Currently, the combined amounts at the $62,000 and $63,000 price levels account for about 8% of the circulating supply. The concentration of chips within the 5% range of the spot price has simultaneously risen to 13%. Although it has not yet reached the historical high-probability trigger line of 15%, it has already surpassed the level that caused severe fluctuations in May, officially entering the warning zone. Here's the other side of the AI-bubble debate, and it's loud. Palantir posted 93% revenue growth to about $1.9B, with US commercial up 149%, and raised full-year guidance well above expectations while its CEO called the quarter "otherworldly." Stock jumped double digits. While bond markets fret about AI debt, one AI company just printed the fundamentals bulls have been promising.
This is why I keep resisting a single verdict on the AI trade. The same week credit spreads widen on AI-infrastructure debt, a software name shows AI converting into real, accelerating, high-margin revenue, not capex hope, actual dollars. Both truths coexist: the infrastructure layer looks stretched and circular, while the best application-layer businesses compound fast. The market's job now is separating the two, and it does that badly in both directions. For crypto, same discipline, distinguish the builders with revenue from the narratives without. Watching whether the software winners keep pulling away.
DYOR.
#PalantirBeatAndRaise #OKXOrbitThe folks at the Federal Reserve have been really "noisy" lately.
The market was originally betting on a rate cut this year, but recently several Fed officials suddenly turned hawkish, with some even hinting that "if inflation rebounds, a rate hike cannot be ruled out." Wow, the shift from rate cuts to hikes is happening faster than crypto candlesticks.
Where exactly is the disagreement?
One side is the "dovish good guys," who think the economy is already showing signs of cooling and it's time to relax and cut rates early to give the market a lifeline; the other side is the "hawkish tough guys," who are focused on core inflation not yet returning to the 2% target and fear that loosening too soon will send prices soaring again. Both sides have their own logic, leaving the market confused.
The crypto market got "collateral damage"
Everyone knows the crypto space is most sensitive to interest rates. When rate cut expectations are strong, Bitcoin tends to rise sharply because cheap money partly flows into high-risk assets. But now with this internal Fed turmoil, the market is repricing — the 10-year Treasury yield is jumping up, the dollar index is firming, and $BTC immediately wilted from around $70,000.
More importantly, this kind of "policy uncertainty" is exactly what crypto fears most. Cryptocurrencies have no fundamental cash flow support and rely entirely on market sentiment and liquidity expectations. When the Fed says one thing today and another tomorrow, institutional funds are even more reluctant to enter aggressively, and retail investors can only watch the charts helplessly.
To be honest
Now is not the time to guess whether the Fed will cut rates or not, but to accept a reality: the high interest rate environment may last longer than we think. For crypto investors, rather than betting on policy shifts, it's better to focus on underlying narratives unaffected by interest rates — such as ETF fund flows and supply-demand changes after halving, which truly influence coin prices.
While the Fed argues, we keep a close eye on our wallets. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 $BTC
According to South Korean media reports, the South Korean government has officially finalized the 2026 tax reform plan, confirming that starting next year, virtual asset trading profits exceeding 2.5 million KRW (approximately 1800 USD) will be taxed at a 22% rate, with the first declaration due in May 2028. This policy has been postponed three times before, and now that it is finally confirmed, it has sparked widespread discussion in the South Korean crypto community.
Many investors' first reaction is: "Tax increase, is this bearish?"
In the short term, it may indeed affect market sentiment.
South Korea has always been one of the most active crypto markets globally, with a high proportion of retail trading. After the new tax policy is implemented, some high-frequency traders may reduce their trading frequency or even take profits early to reduce future tax costs, which could impact short-term trading activity.
However, from a longer-term perspective, this may not necessarily be a bad thing.
In recent years, more and more countries have started establishing crypto asset tax systems, which means regulation is gradually shifting from "restriction" to "standardization." For large institutions, clear tax rules are often more important than policy uncertainty. When the legal framework is more complete, institutional funds are more willing to enter the market, which is one of the reasons why Bitcoin spot ETFs have been able to develop rapidly.
What is truly worth noting is that South Korea chose to advance taxation while the market is still in a volatile phase, so there is significant opposition from the market. If trading volume significantly declines in the future, or funds flow to regions with looser regulation, South Korean regulators may continue to adjust specific implementation details based on market feedback.
For BTC, this policy mainly affects local trading sentiment in South Korea rather than the global trend. The real determinants of Bitcoin's medium- to long-term trend remain ETF fund flows, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the global liquidity environment.
Therefore, this crypto tax in South Korea is more a signal of the industry's maturation than a bearish factor. It may affect market sentiment in the short term, but in the long run, clearer regulatory rules help attract more compliant capital into the crypto market.
What do you think? Will improved regulation and tax systems promote the maturation of the crypto space, or will they reduce market activity? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.🚨 The next 48 hours could tell us more about $SPCX than the next 48 weeks.
The next two days may define SpaceX's short-term trend.
Aug. 4: First earnings report as a public company.
Aug. 6: Approximately 911.5 million insider shares become eligible for sale.
The real story isn't the events themselves—it's how the market responds.
If strong earnings can't lift the stock, that's a signal.
If a $100B+ lock-up expiration can't push it lower, that's also a signal.
The market often reveals its true direction when price refuses to react the way everyone expects.
Sometimes, expectations become more powerful than reality.
That's what I'll be watching over the next 48 hours.
$SPCX
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK