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The underlying logic of shorting SanDisk is not based on short-term sentiment but on the capital game under the margin mechanism; understanding the linkage between institutional positions, capital costs, and industry cycles is key to distinguishing between short-term sentiment-driven sell-offs and trend opportunities, thus avoiding passive liquidation during forced sales and extreme volatility.
1. The starting point of shorting: Citron's "Cycle Peak Theory"
- Cycle peak: Citron believes storage chips are strongly cyclical commodities, and the current high gross margin is more like a signal of the cycle peak; once capacity is released, supply and demand can quickly reverse.
- Intensified competition: Samsung enters SanDisk's core high-end SSD market with more advanced technology and sets a "gross margin not less than 50%" target, possibly squeezing profits through price wars.
- Shareholder reduction: SanDisk's former parent company Western Digital reduced holdings at the stock price peak, interpreted as insiders' judgment on the cycle peak.
- Valuation mismatch: Criticizes the market for pricing SanDisk as an "NVIDIA-style growth stock," arguing it lacks sufficient moat and should revert to cyclical stock pricing.
2. The "Structural Change Theory" from the bulls and performance validation
- AI-driven structural demand: AI servers require 8–10 times the memory of traditional servers and rely more on high-speed HBM; AI-driven demand is seen as structural rather than cyclical.
- Capacity shifts toward high gross margin: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, etc., are shifting over 70% of advanced wafer capacity to high-margin HBM, squeezing general storage capacity and intensifying supply tightness.
- Inventory and long-term contracts support prices: Industry inventory is at historically low levels, with some product inventory turnover only 2–4 weeks; SanDisk and others have signed 3–5 year long-term contracts with cloud providers, locking in future capacity and profits.
- Performance and gross margin validation: Fiscal 2026 Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion (up 372% YoY), GAAP gross margin reached 84.6%, significantly above historical industry levels, showing a structural improvement in profitability.
3. Margin game: How forced liquidation amplifies extreme volatility
- Leverage and margin mechanism: Shorting requires margin and leverage; when the stock price rises, the short margin account is pressured, possibly triggering margin calls or forced liquidation.
- Bull-bear confrontation and "short squeeze": Under strong trends, bulls continuously buy to push up the stock price, forcing shorts to cover (buy back shares), further driving prices up and creating a "short squeeze" loop.
- Source of extreme volatility: Once one side's capital chain is pressured and triggers forced liquidation, the market is prone to extreme volatility; margin strength directly determines market resilience.
4. Current capital landscape: Institutional accumulation, short sellers retreating
- Institutions continue to accumulate: As of Q2 2026, institutions hold about 77.06% of SanDisk's float; Assenagon, Orient Harbor, and others newly entered or increased holdings in Q2, showing institutional recognition of its long-term prospects.
- Short selling power weakens: As of July 31, 2026, shorted shares totaled 6.82 million, accounting for 4.62% of the float, down 13.16% from the previous month, indicating some shorts chose to cover and exit.
5. How ordinary investors can avoid pitfalls and participate rationally
- Beware of "only betting on direction": Blind shorting without attention to leverage and risk control is prone to forced liquidation during trend rallies.
- Distinguish short-term sentiment from trends:
- Short-term sentiment sell-offs: Rapid declines triggered mostly by negative news; if fundamentals remain unchanged, these are often buying opportunities.
- Trend opportunities/risks: Require comprehensive judgment combining institutional positions, capital costs, industry supply-demand, and company performance.
- Control position size and leverage: In highly volatile cyclical stocks, prioritize reducing leverage and diversifying holdings to avoid excessive concentration risk in a single asset. $SNDK $BTC is holding at $63,500, but ETFs are starting to see outflows: Tonight's focus is not on bottom-fishing, but on "who is taking over the position"
BTC is fluctuating around $63,500 today, about $500 lower than early yesterday; more notably, on August 12, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $61.1 million.
This is different from the structure of "ETFs continuously providing buy orders" seen in previous days.
Tonight, I am more concerned about one question: When ETFs reduce positions, can BTC still hold between $63,000 and $63,500?
If funds flow out but the price does not make new lows, it indicates there is still internal market support; conversely, if $63,000 is broken and the rebound cannot recover, there is no need to rush to guess the bottom in the short term.
Additionally, the US 10-year yield has returned to around **4.72%**, and the dollar is relatively strong, which is not favorable for high Beta assets like BTC.
Trading idea: Watch for support between $63,000 and $63,500; if $64,000 is reclaimed, look for recovery, and do not prematurely bet on direction.
Risk boundary: A single day of ETF outflows cannot directly define the trend, but if "fund outflows + price break" occur simultaneously, it is worth proactively reducing positions.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Overview of core PPI data
Market consensus expects:
Indicator Previous Value Expected Expected Range
PPI MoM -0.3% +0.2% -0.1%~+0.3% PP1 YoY 5.5% 4.9% 4.7%~5.2%
Core PP January Monthly Rate 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%~0.4%
Core PPI annual rate 4.7% 4.2% 4.1%~4.7%
The annual PPI forecast fell from the previous 5.5% to 4.9%, continuing the cooling trend seen since June (6.5%->5.5%). If it meets expectations, it will resonate with yesterday's CPI showing "double moderate inflation"; If the rebound exceeds expectations, the narrative of "moderate CPI but uncut corporate costs" will restart pricing in rate hikes.
Initial jobless claims will be announced simultaneously, and if market expectations rise above 210,000, combined with a moderate PPI, the logic of "economic slowdown + inflation cooling" will be reinforced. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #黄金维持高位, institutions remain bullish by year-end Pretending to take notes in the meeting, I sneaked a glance at my phone, and OKB suddenly surged close to 101? Wow, this rally has me a bit stunned.
Looking at the daily chart, the price is moving up along the moving average, and the MACD bullish momentum is still increasing... hmm... it does look pretty strong. But platform tokens are super volatile; they can spike hard and also pull back fiercely. 105 is a strong resistance level, might end up drawing a top again. I promised not to chase the highs... my hand hovered over the screen for a long time but finally pulled back. The last time I chased the high and got stuck is still fresh in my mind, really disappointed in myself.
But on the other hand, can this rally hold above 100? Any experts want to chime in? I'll watch for now, and if you guys rush in, remember to keep your positions light... don't end up like me standing on the mountaintop exposed to the wind.
$BTC SECActsAsCLARITYWaits: SEC Acts While CLARITY Waits
The crypto market is approaching a major regulatory turning point in the U.S.: the SEC is advancing crypto-focused rules while the CLARITY Act remains pending in the Senate. This could influence institutional capital, token issuance, and regulatory certainty.
The positive side is that the SEC is exploring a “tailored offering regime” for certain crypto activities. If implemented effectively, clearer rules could reduce legal uncertainty and encourage institutional participation.
$BTC could benefit from greater regulatory transparency, strengthening Bitcoin’s position as a mature digital asset. For $ETH, the impact could be broader because Ethereum sits at the center of stablecoins, DeFi, tokenization, and smart contracts. $SOL could benefit if clearer rules encourage blockchain adoption. Meanwhile, $OKB could gain if trading, custody, and crypto ecosystems become more standardized.
However, significant risks remain. The CLARITY Act has not yet become law, and delays into September preserve uncertainty. SEC action does not mean the U.S. has completed a comprehensive crypto framework. Proposals still face regulatory procedures, while SEC-CFTC jurisdiction remains a major issue.
This is particularly important for assets beyond $BTC, as token issuance, staking, DeFi, and fundraising could continue facing regulatory questions.
Therefore, the current signal is structurally bullish but uncertain short term. If the SEC develops clearer rules and the CLARITY Act advances in September, $BTC , $ETH , $SOL , and $OKB could benefit from stronger confidence and capital flows.
If Congress continues delaying legislation, crypto may remain caught between the promise of regulatory clarity and the reality of regulatory uncertainty.
The bigger question is whether the U.S. can establish a crypto framework that is clear, predictable, and sustainable.
#SECActsAsCLARITYWaits
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#StrategySellsBTCAgain
$BTC
$ETH #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？
CPI data is out, overall meeting expectations.
July CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, month-on-month 0.1%, core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, core month-on-month 0.2%, all exactly as expected. The market reaction was immediate—CME FedWatch shows the probability of a September rate hike slightly dropped from about 47% before the data release to around 45%. BTC briefly fell to near 64000 then bounced back, S&P futures rose 0.46%, gold rose over 1%.
The data itself is not bad, but there is a detail worth highlighting.
June CPI month-on-month was -0.4%, the first negative in six years, driven by the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran which pushed oil prices down. July month-on-month returned to +0.1%, shifting from decline to increase, indicating the base effect of energy prices is fading. Moreover, housing costs remain firm, contributing two-thirds of the overall monthly CPI increase. Inflation is cooling, but the pace of cooling is slowing.
So, will there be a rate hike in September?
CME data shows a 54.1% probability of maintaining rates and 45.9% for a 25 basis point hike. Goldman Sachs believes the Fed will not raise rates again this year, and Morgan Stanley’s chief economist says the expected inflation supports the narrative of "no need for a rate hike."
My judgment is: the probability of a September hike is decreasing, but not yet to a level where it can be ruled out.
Waller said at the July FOMC press conference that whether there will be a hike in September depends on whether inflation data continues to decline. This July data gives a reason to "wait and see," but August CPI is the real decisive factor—if August rebounds again, the suspense for September returns.
BTC is now hovering around 64000, CPI provides short-term support, but the real direction depends on August data. So, we still have to wait another month. ⚠️Tonight (August 13, 2026) at 8:30, the US July PPI will be released. The result can be summarized in one sentence: headline cooling exceeded expectations, core services remain sticky, overall slightly bullish for $BTC $ETH in the short term, but not the kind of "mindless surge" bullishness.
PPI cooling → Fed tightening pressure decreases → rate cut expectations rise → US Treasury yields and the dollar come under pressure → risk asset liquidity improves → BTC benefits
Since last night's CPI already delivered a "meeting expectations" moderate report (YoY 3.4%), tonight's further cooling of headline PPI means the narrative of "US inflation easing simultaneously from consumption to production" is half completed.
👂This is a materially bullish signal for Bitcoin:
1. Rate cut expectations reheat, improving valuation environment for long-duration assets (tech stocks, crypto assets)
2. Tail risk of dollar and real interest rates rising is suppressed
3. BTC, as an interest rate-sensitive risk asset, should theoretically receive support
Currently, BTC is oscillating in the $63,300-$64,400 range (a key technical level after CPI release). After the PPI release, no breakout surge has occurred yet; it seems to be waiting for the US stock market open and confirmation from US Treasury yields.
👂Key observation windows:
1. Direction of 10-year US Treasury yields after US stock market opens (the most critical indicator)
2. Whether BTC can hold the $63,300 support and challenge the $64,400 resistance
3. Tomorrow's SEC crypto regulatory proposal meeting (the first formal rulemaking under the Atkins era), which could be the next BTC catalyst after PPI
$SNDK
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Official U.S. data released shows July PPI month-over-month at 0%, below the market expectation of 0.2%, rebounding 0.3 percentage points from June's -0.3%; core PPI month-over-month at 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, unchanged from June. Overall prices returned from negative growth to zero growth but did not reach the market's anticipated increase, indicating that inflation momentum on the production side remains moderate.
March PPI month-over-month was 0.5%, rising to 1.4% in April, falling back to 1.1% in May, turning negative at -0.3% in June, and although July recovered compared to June, it remains below the levels seen from March to May. Core PPI did not rebound along with the overall figure, indicating that price pressures excluding volatile items have not accelerated.
For the Federal Reserve, July's PPI being weaker than expected aligns with the previous narrative of easing inflation pressures. With the federal funds rate maintained at 3.75%, this data may reduce the necessity for further rate hikes in the short term, but since overall PPI has returned from June's negative value to zero growth, market judgments on policy direction still need to continue tracking subsequent inflation and employment data.July PPI data overall fell short of expectations, especially with the previous core PPI monthly rate revised upward, making the core PPI monthly rate of 0.2% appear even more moderate
Referring to the previous text, this is the best data combination for tonight—nominal below 0.1%, core stable at 0.2% and below the previous value, combined with last night's July CPI data, meaning CPI+PPI, inflation pressure on both consumers and businesses is cooling
Market reaction: CME swap rate dropped to 32.1%, a new low, but has not fallen below the 30% safety threshold, so risk still remains
Data is bullish for gold, bearish for the dollar; bond yields for 1-year, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year all fell collectively, with the 1-year short bond yield dropping 0.75%, 2-year yield down 0.5%, indicating short-term inflation pressure is easing and high interest rate pressure is easing
Positive for risk assets, U.S. stocks accelerated gains in pre-market, QQQ at 724 pre-market, VIX index declined, and tonight the U.S. stock market is expected to continue the upward momentum in the first half
Note that the current CME swap rate still shows a 32.1% probability of a September rate hike, meaning the chance of a September hike has not been completely dismissed; the second half of tonight's U.S. stock market may see inflation concerns re-emerge similar to early yesterday morning.
Next, we need to watch whether tomorrow's retail data weakens and further suppresses the September rate hike probability. Only if the probability falls below 30%, or even below 25%, will it officially enter a safe zone! #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #Lumentum revenue doubled, AI optical communication demand continues, risk appetite warms up, WLD strengthens accordingly. Current price 0.3408, 24h up 2.3%, trading volume 143 million, funding rate 0.01%, open interest 91.41 million, leverage not overheated.
On the chart, 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but only 3.07% below the high point, with increasing resistance above. Order book top 10 levels: buy 974,425, sell 884,284, buy pressure dominant, short-term momentum remains. Key levels: resistance 0.3516, support 0.3091, 0.2972.
Mid-term view: as long as 0.2972 is not broken, the upward structure remains; if volume breaks through 0.3516, the next target is above 0.3600. Operation: buy on pullback near 0.3091, stop loss 0.2970, target 0.3516; or lightly follow long after breaking 0.3516, stop loss 0.3450, target 0.3600.
Main risks: cooling of AI narrative, sharp market drop, WLD high-level trapped selling pressure, control position size.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
#Lumentum revenue doubled, AI optical communication demand continues $WLD Brothers, everyone is focused on ETF inflows and outflows, and on Saylor selling coins, but there is a source of selling pressure you might have completely overlooked — publicly listed mining companies. They have already sold $1.78 billion worth of $BTC this year.
· Since 2026, publicly listed mining companies have sold about $1.78 billion in BTC, nearly three times the net inflow of ETFs during the same period
· BTC has dropped about 27% this year, with the price falling from the year's high to below 64,000, putting pressure on miners' revenue and forcing them to sell coins
I extracted this data from on-chain sources; mainstream media has barely reported it. Everyone is shouting "ETF inflows of 853 million are bullish," but no one tells you that miners sold 1.78 billion in the same period. Netting it out, just the selling pressure from miners has more than offset twice the ETF inflows.
This is why BTC can't rally — it's not that there is no buying demand, but the selling pressure is much larger than you think. You saw Saylor sell 1,690 coins, but you didn't see miners selling tens of thousands.
I bet that before the end of Q3, BTC will struggle to hold above 68,000. Mark my words! Unless miner selling slows down. At the current 63,800 level, I will continue to hold spot but won't add positions; I'll wait until miner selling pressure data clearly decreases. Position size is 40%, zero leverage; staying alive is more important than making money.
#MiningCompanies #BTC #SellingPressureAugust 13｜BTC Data Evening Report
BTC Real-Time Market
As of press time, BTC is around $63,504, with a daily high of about $64,093 and a low of about $63,267, down approximately 0.83% in 24 hours. After the CPI release, interest rate pressure eased, but BTC has not shown significant strength.
ETF Funds
On August 12, the total net outflow of US spot BTC ETFs was about $61.16 million, ending a small net inflow streak of three consecutive trading days.
ETF flows turned negative again, while BTC prices continued to face pressure during the same period, indicating that institutional investors have not yet formed sufficient strong spot support.
On-Chain Holdings (by address)
Continuous snapshots from August 12 to 13:
Under 10 BTC: net increase of about 283 BTC, latest total holdings about 3.4385 million BTC
10–100 BTC: net decrease of 531 BTC, latest total holdings about 4.2209 million BTC
Above 100 BTC: net increase of 472 BTC, latest total holdings about 12.4075 million BTC
Within above 100 BTC:
100–1,000 BTC: net increase of 2,277 BTC, latest about 5.1748 million BTC
1,000–10,000 BTC: net decrease of 1,783 BTC, latest about 4.2466 million BTC
10,000–100,000 BTC: net decrease of 22 BTC, latest about 2.2705 million BTC
Above 100,000 BTC: net change 0 BTC, latest about 715,500 BTC
The total amount of large addresses is still net increasing, but the increment comes entirely from the 100–1,000 BTC range, while 1,000–10,000 BTC continues to decrease, so it does not yet look like a consistent concentration of large holder chips.
Stablecoin Liquidity
Total stablecoin market cap is about $300.83 billion, increasing about 0.01% in 24 hours, up about $414 million (+0.14%) in 7 days, but still down 0.56% over 30 days.
USDT is about $183 billion, down 0.21% in 7 days and down 0.67% in 30 days; USDC is about $72.15 billion, up 0.46% in 7 days but still down 1.29% in 30 days.
On-chain USD liquidity remains in a "stabilizing but not expanding" state, with no clear new funds visible to significantly drive BTC spot demand.
Contract Data
BTC open interest is about $30.46 billion. Below the current price, around $62,700, there is a concentration of long liquidation risk, while near $66,000 there is a larger dense short liquidation zone.
Currently, leverage positions do not give a clear direction, but with weak spot demand, liquidation zones on both sides may amplify short-term volatility.
Important News Today
US July CPI year-over-year dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%, core CPI from 2.6% to 2.5%. After the data release, market expectations for a September rate hike clearly declined, but BTC's reaction remained weak. Macro interest rate pressure eased but did not immediately translate into crypto market buying; this divergence is more noteworthy than the CPI figures themselves.
Meanwhile, Brent crude oil fell about 2% today to around $87, temporarily easing energy inflation pressure, but Middle East tensions still pose recurring risks.
What to Watch Next
The most valuable signal now is: macro pressure easing, but ETF flows turning negative again, stablecoins not expanding, and BTC showing no obvious response.
If ETFs later return to large-scale inflows, stablecoin weekly increments significantly expand, and addresses holding over 1,000 BTC stop decreasing, it would indicate that financial condition improvements from CPI are truly transmitting to BTC spot; if macro remains friendly but these three fund data sets do not improve, it means the main current issue is not interest rates but BTC's own lack of new spot demand.
$BTC #星球日报 Both PPI and CPI data have been released. Those who study economics know that these two represent inflation indices, with PPI focusing on the production side accounting, while CPI accounts for the consumer side. There is also something called the GDP deflator.
Both are below market expectations, aligning with the Federal Reserve's target indices, which means inflation is not significant. Logically, the market would think that since inflation is not severe, interest rates could be cut to stimulate the economy. However, the market fluctuations in recent days clearly are not betting on rate cuts but rather on no rate hikes.
A rate hike means further deterioration of U.S. Treasury bonds, while a rate cut would further worsen the inflation that the Federal Reserve has struggled to control. Due to the lack of a domestic manufacturing supply chain in the U.S. and the severing of most trade goods with China, inflation cannot be passed on to other countries, so a rate cut is something the U.S. absolutely cannot afford.
Therefore, the market's reaction to these two inflation indices is very subtle—neither too much nor too little, just exactly the data the Federal Reserve needs, and also the data the public cannot easily criticize. It allows for governance by doing nothing while minimizing panic as much as possible.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC $ETH $OKB 📊 $BCH Liquidation Update (August 13)
According to liquidation data, all BCH timeframes show a pattern of long liquidations overwhelmingly crushing shorts, with a long squeeze dominating the mid-to-long term and concentrated within 24 hours:
· Short term (1H/4H): Both 1-hour long and short liquidations are $0**, indicating an extremely calm market; 4-hour long liquidations are $22,200, short liquidations $0**, shorts completely wiped out, the long squeeze is concentrated at the 4-hour level with moderate volume.
· Mid term (12H): Long liquidations $22,200 (same as 4H), shorts $677.82, longs crushing shorts by 32.8 times, the long squeeze continues, shorts begin to appear but with very small volume.
· 24-hour period: Long liquidations $58,900, shorts $818.57, longs crushing shorts by 72 times, total liquidations exceed $59,700, longs account for nearly 98.6%, long squeeze momentum significantly strengthened, heavy long liquidations, the long squeeze is unstoppable.
⚠️ Risk Warning: BCH short positions in short term wiped out, mid-to-long term longs continue to dominate, direction highly consistent but liquidation volume is small (less than $60,000), market liquidity may be limited; 24-hour long ratio extremely high, beware of pullback risk after extreme consensus. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, avoid blindly bottom-fishing, strictly control position size and wait for stabilization signals.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 13
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the macro window opens, AI narrative is accelerating realization—CPI cooling creates space for risk assets, while industrial data fills this space.
📊 CPI Stabilizes: September Rate Hike Probability Drops Sharply to 36%
US July CPI year-over-year 3.4%, core CPI year-over-year 2.5%, month-over-month 0.2%, all three data points fully in line with expectations. Fuel prices fell 2.9% month-over-month, the main drag; previously supply-shocked food prices also noticeably declined.
After data release, September rate hike probability dropped from 48% to 36%. Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed Correspondent," noted this report "somewhat alleviates the pressure on the Fed to raise rates next month." The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%, near historic highs. Macro pressure is easing temporarily, creating space for risk assets.
🏗️ AI Infrastructure Earnings Relay: Cloud Revenue Accelerates, Positive Cycle Established
Q2 earnings season, three major cloud providers delivered impressive results. Google Cloud revenue $24.8B, up 82% YoY, operating margin jumped from 20.7% to 35.6%; Microsoft Azure up 43% YoY; Amazon AWS revenue $42.2B, up 37% YoY. All three cloud providers doubled or more their backlog. AI investment is forming a "capex → revenue → profit → reinvestment" positive cycle.
New AI cloud infrastructure leaders also exploded—Nebius core AI cloud business sales surged 514% YoY, stock price soared 34% in one day; CoreWeave backlog reached $104B, stock price surged over 19%. AI infrastructure order visibility is expanding exponentially.
🚀 Musk: AI Will Account for 99% of SpaceX's Value
At an all-hands meeting, Musk boldly stated: AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX businesses combined as early as September; within five years AI will account for 99% of the company's value; SpaceX aims to build 10 GW AI computing power by the end of next year, corresponding to annual revenue of $300B to $500B. Current SpaceX computing power is 1.4 GW. Boosted by this, SpaceX stock rose over 6%, rebounding more than 35% from recent lows.
💎 Summary
CPI landed moderately, September rate hike probability dropped to 36%, macro pressure temporarily eased; three major cloud providers prove AI investment is paying off with operating margins over 35%; Musk's declaration that "AI accounts for 99% of SpaceX's value" pushes AI narrative imagination to new heights. As the macro window opens, industrial positive cycle establishes, and narrative ceiling is redefined, the AI sector is moving from "storytelling" to "delivering results." #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% DOGE and $ETH, which one is the sentiment thermometer? The answer is: both, but they measure different kinds of temperature.
Let's first look at the data itself. In the past 24 hours, ETH traded between $1,872.07 and $1,918.99, with a volatility of about 2.49%; DOGE ranged from $0.06892 to $0.072048, with a volatility of about 4.45%. DOGE's short-term fluctuations are roughly 1.8 times that of ETH. Looking at the numbers alone, DOGE is more "restless," but restlessness does not equal representativeness; these are two different things.
ETH's price volatility reflects the "attitude of money." Behind it are DeFi locked value, on-chain activity, staking yields, and an increasing presence of institutional allocations. Whether ETH moves or not reflects whether mainstream capital is willing to take risks in crypto assets; it is a kind of "smart money" temperature. When its volatility narrows, it often indicates that large funds are waiting and watching for macro signals—the Federal Reserve's path, the direction of the dollar, and whether ETF funds are flowing in or out.
DOGE's pricing, on the other hand, reflects "human emotions." It lacks a complex ecosystem narrative; its price rises and falls almost entirely depend on retail enthusiasm, Meme propagation, and short-term speculative willingness. Therefore, DOGE's volatility is naturally greater than ETH's, which is not surprising. What is surprising is when and in what order it expands.
Here is a very practical observation framework. If ETH first stabilizes and its base rises, then DOGE starts to surge to catch up, this usually means risk appetite is spreading from mainstream assets to sentiment assets—the early money made profits, and outside money begins chasing more elastic targets. This shows a layered and continuous market. Historically, the rotation script of BTC setting the stage, ETH following, and Meme coins finishing the cycle has played out this way.
But if ETH is still sideways and inactive, and DOGE suddenly erupts alone, it is most likely just short-term speculative capital looking for an exit and firing a shot, with little relation to a full bull market. This kind of market comes fast and goes fast; those chasing it often end up standing guard for others. Meme coins can amplify the market but never create it; the root of the market always lies with mainstream capital represented by BTC and ETH.
So, back to the initial question: to judge the real market temperature, look at ETH; to judge how excited retail investors are and how far the bubble has blown, look at DOGE. One tells you which way the wind is blowing, the other tells you how fiercely the fire is burning. The truly worrisome signal is when DOGE's flames far exceed ETH's wind direction—when sentiment assets' volatility is several times that of mainstream assets, while mainstream assets themselves show no direction, it indicates that the market is mainly speculative money entertaining itself. Currently, ETH's volatility is very low, indicating that large funds have not yet made a move. Before the wind direction is established, every sharp rally of $DOGE should be understood more as noise rather than a call to action.The real war between ETH and SOL is not about transaction speed, but about where the next trillion-dollar stablecoin will be placed.
In the past, when comparing $ETH and $SOL, people liked to discuss TPS, Gas fees, and user experience the most.
These metrics are certainly important, but if stablecoins, RWA, and on-chain payments continue to expand, the real competition between the two chains might not be about who processes more transactions per day, but about who can hold the next batch of long-term parked dollar assets.
SOL's advantage is very straightforward.
Low fees, fast confirmations, and users almost don't need to repeatedly calculate costs when transferring or trading. For payment, Meme, high-frequency trading, and ordinary user scenarios, this experience easily drives growth.
When a new hotspot emerges, users can quickly enter wallets, exchange stablecoins, trade tokens, and then transfer funds between different applications. SOL excels at getting funds moving.
ETH's advantage is completely different.
A large amount of stablecoins, DeFi protocols, institutional infrastructure, and high-value assets have already accumulated within the Ethereum ecosystem. For transactions worth tens of dollars, fees and speed are most important; for assets worth billions, security history, liquidity depth, custody systems, and risk management are more critical.
ETH excels at making large funds willing to stay.
Therefore, the two chains may win simultaneously at different stages.
SOL first competes for users and transaction entry points, encouraging more people to use on-chain dollars; ETH continues to compete for institutional settlement and high-value assets, making more funds willing to treat on-chain dollars as long-term financial infrastructure.
The problem is, these two markets will inevitably overlap sooner or later.
As the stablecoin scale on SOL grows larger and applications no longer revolve only around Meme and short-term trading, institutions will naturally start considering whether to place payments, RWA, and other financial businesses there.
Conversely, as Ethereum continuously reduces user costs through scaling, it will also strive to reclaim payments and high-frequency applications, unwilling to be just an expensive large-value settlement layer.
This is the real direct competition between ETH and SOL.
It's not about which chain has higher DEX volume on a given day, but which chain can simultaneously meet the user experience of ordinary users and the security requirements of institutional funds.
If SOL only has traffic, its valuation will ultimately still be affected by speculative cycles; if ETH only has accumulation but loses new users and new applications, financial assets may gradually shift to ecosystems with more growth.
So when observing the two chains, one should look less at daily data and more at several harder-to-fake trends: whether stablecoins continue to have net inflows, whether payments form real frequency, whether RWA can grow long-term, whether developers stay, and whether on-chain revenue is overly dependent on short-term hotspots.
$SOL wants to prove that cheap and fast can also support large-scale finance, $ETH wants to prove that security and accumulation do not mean user experience must lag behind.
Whoever gets the next trillion-dollar stablecoin will not just win a round of public chain market, but will compete for the future home of on-chain dollars.#Gold remains high, institutions still bullish by year-end Gold prices hold steady in a high range with fluctuations. Multiple overseas institutions have successively updated their outlooks, maintaining a bullish forecast for the year-end, but market divergences are simultaneously widening, making it difficult for the market to rise unilaterally.
This round of gold price stabilization at high levels is driven by two main factors. First, changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations: U.S. nonfarm payroll data has weakened significantly, leading the market to lower the probability of further rate hikes. This eases upward pressure on real U.S. Treasury yields, restoring the allocation value of the interest-free asset gold; the upcoming CPI data tonight will directly revise interest rate pricing and is the most important short-term indicator. Second, rigid long-term buying support: in Q2, global central banks' net gold purchases rose sharply year-on-year, with many countries continuing to diversify foreign exchange reserves. This medium- to long-term physical demand underpins the gold price floor; combined with repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and intermittent inflows of safe-haven funds, multiple factors resonate to maintain the current price center.
Institutions generally remain optimistic about the year-end market, but most bullish logic is based on the baseline scenario of "moderate inflation decline and the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes." Short-term risks are also clear: if CPI exceeds expectations, hawkish expectations will return, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will rebound, and gold will quickly come under pressure; after continuous rises, speculative longs become crowded, and profit-taking could trigger a deep correction at any time, making high-level fluctuations the norm.
Looking ahead, the long-term logic for gold remains intact, but blind chasing of highs is not advisable. The market focus will alternate between geopolitical news and U.S. inflation data. To verify institutional year-end forecasts, the key is to track two things: the persistence of U.S. inflation and the pace of global central bank gold purchases. In the short term, a fluctuating approach is more suitable, waiting for data to provide a clear direction. $BTC $ETH $XAU Is the current "deflation" expectation for SOL calculated based on supply reversal?
SIMD-0553 is still in Draft. If the resource fee is eventually implemented, it will be fully burned, but the proposal's own terminal estimate is only about 7,500 to 9,000 SOL per day, which against approximately 3.8% inflation, still leaves some distance from the supply inflection point. The discussion on accelerating emission reduction in 0550 has not yet become a rule.
SOL 4H is currently at 75.9, with EMA20 at 75.94. Before reclaiming 77.3, this sideways movement won't be considered as funds pricing in early. If 74.58 breaks, looking back at the previous rebound would be more reasonable.
The chart includes SUI for comparison within the same sector. It is still hovering near two moving averages; failing to reclaim 0.6996 indicates that L1 hasn't added premium to this narrative either.
Should we rely on the left-side support at 74.58 now, or wait until 77.3 is firmly held before following?
$SOL
For information organization and personal opinion only, not investment advice.By 2026, the Tesla market is no longer satisfied with seeing it as an electric vehicle company. In its latest financial report, Tesla's revenue exceeded $100 billion for the first time in the past 12 months, Cybercab has begun production, and the company is betting its future on Robotaxi, Optimus, and AI infrastructure. Now, investors are debating whether these businesses can support Tesla's next round of valuation. Tesla Q2 2026 Financial Report However, in 2008, Tesla was not yet qualified to discuss Robotaxi. First, it had to find a way to survive Christmas. Tesla's initial product path was very clear: first launch the expensive Roadster to prove that electric vehicles can also have sports car performance, then gradually enter lower-priced, larger markets. This approach sounds reasonable, but is extremely expensive to implement. Automotive manufacturing involves supply chain, parts validation, production equipment, after-sales maintenance, and safety certification. Tesla has battery and electric drive technologies but lacks large-scale car manufacturing experience; The Roadster's development schedule was continuously delayed, material and manufacturing costs remained high, and early output was insufficient to achieve economies of scale. In 2008, Tesla finally began delivering the Roadster, but its financial situation did not improve as a result. The company had a net cash outflow from operating activities of approximately $52.4 million and a pre-tax loss of about $83 million. The earliest batch of Roadsters were even partially withdrawn because the powertrain still needed upgrades🌪️今晚的CPI，可能不是一份普通的经济数据，而是一记直接把市场拉回现实的重拳。当前市场的混乱程度，已经罕见到了一个临界点：一边是PIMCO这样的资管巨头公开喊话，说市场对“加息重启”的恐慌明显过度，利率最终的路径依然是向下，降息空间仍然敞亮；另一边，利率期货市场却悄悄把9月加息的概率推到了接近50%的高位。多空阵营几乎把全部筹码都押上了桌，互不相让。📉而今晚的CPI，就是那张决定谁出局的最后底牌。 🎯先说市场目前定价的基准预期：CPI同比3.4%，核心CPI同比2.5%。看起来平淡无奇，但真正刺刀见红的地方在于——数据与预期的每一个微小偏离，都会触发截然不同的流动性叙事。 🎲如果数据低于预期，加息交易会瞬间熄火。美债收益率应声回落，美元指数承压走弱，流动性预期随之改善，Nasdaq、黄金、BTC这些风险资产将集体拉响反攻号角，重新回到“冒险模式”。这不是简单的利好，而是市场对“紧缩周期彻底终结”的一次提前确认。 💥但如果核心CPI意外走高，局面就会变得相当棘手。9月加息的阴云会重新凝聚，美债收益率飙涨，风险资产大概率全线承压。届时市场交易的将不再是“软着陆”，而是“二次通胀#特朗普因TruthSocial付费数据流遭起诉
The boss has something to say
Trump has been sued.
The Intercept and the Freedom of the Press Foundation have jointly sued him, demanding the shutdown of TruthSocial's TruthAPI service. This service charges up to $100,000 per month and pushes posts from Trump and key accounts to trading institutions at millisecond speed, allowing them to process sensitive information such as tariffs, wars, and monetary policies ahead of the market.
The core controversy is simple. The president's statements directly affect the price trends of stocks, bonds, commodities, and crypto assets. If this information stream is openly priced and delivered at millisecond speed, is it a financial data service or an unfair policy information advantage for a few institutions?
The crypto market is quite sensitive to Trump's posts. His statements on BTC and regulatory attitudes often instantly influence price movements. If institutions can access this information early through a paid channel, the information gap for retail investors widens further.
Currently, this is only at the lawsuit stage and has little short-term impact on the market. But the development of such cases is worth watching. If there is evidence later that Trump or his team used TruthAPI information to profit from trading, it won't just be a lawsuit issue; it will be an escalation.
The few trades I have on hand are unaffected. $BTC $ETH $OKB 【BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series】
Long-term holders' deep cut indicator on exchanges is here 🫴
This bear market bottom, the indicator remains steadily underwater 😏
┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐
The indicator at the bottom of the chart shows the realized profit and loss ratio of LTHs sending to exchanges
Indicator logic: stripping out the original cost of long-term holders (>155 days), it only compares the "pure profit" and "pure loss" amounts of the chips they transfer into exchanges
🔴 Bull Market Top Escape Warning: When the ratio shows exponential surge, it means almost all transfers by veterans to exchanges are "pure profits." Large-scale selling driven by huge floating profits is a typical top chip distribution feature
🟢 Bear Market Bottom Signal: When the ratio falls below 1.0 and shrinks close to 0, it means "pure loss" dominates absolutely. This indicates even die-hard fans who have endured long cycles can't withstand the drop and are forced to deeply cut losses on exchanges. Complete panic and surrender often signal that a solid macro bottom has been established
Note: This article refers to ratio <1.0 as "underwater" PPI unexpectedly cools down, is the real bullish signal here? Tonight BTC will depend on whether the market dares to bet on the Fed again
Compared to yesterday's “precisely as expected” CPI, tonight's PPI finally shows a real deviation from expectations.
US July final demand PPI month-over-month is 0.0%, significantly below the market expectation of about +0.2%; commodity prices fell 0.7%, with energy prices down 3.1%.
This means upstream price pressures are easing, which is clearly macro bullish for BTC and ETH: the necessity for further rate hikes in September is further reduced, and PCE forecasts may also be revised downward accordingly.
But don’t rush to interpret this as a “comprehensive inflation victory.”
Core PPI excluding food, energy, and trade still rose 0.4% month-over-month, and service prices increased 0.2%, indicating inflation stickiness has not completely disappeared.
So the real focus tonight is not the PPI number itself, but:
Whether US Treasury yields can continue to decline, whether the dollar can weaken, and whether BTC can break out with volume.
If macro bullish signals keep increasing but BTC still can’t rally, then the problem is no longer the Fed—
but the crypto market itself lacking incremental buying power.
PPI has opened a bullish window; whether prices can move up is the ultimate answer. $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 $BTC on the four-hour chart sharply pulled back after hitting resistance at 64450, dropping to a low of 63283, then started a low-level rebound correction. After the price touched a temporary high point upward, it pulled back again. Currently, it is in a range-bound consolidation after a significant drop, with lows still maintaining a rising trend. The support below has not been effectively broken, and the pullback is a normal retracement and shakeout during the upward movement. The short-term bears have only temporarily released momentum and have not formed a sustained downtrend. Overall, conditions still favor another upward attack. The strategy is to wait for a pullback to the support area to continue building long positions. $ETH $OKB #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 $XAU $XAUT US July PPI data continues the inflation cooling trend, overall below market expectations, providing fundamental support for gold in the mid-term, but with limited short-term impact. It has not reversed the current high-level gold price correction trend; instead, due to the early realization of positive factors and the data's weaker influence compared to CPI, it failed to bring new upward momentum.
1. July PPI Core Data (Released August 13, 2026)
- Overall PPI YoY: 4.7%, below market expectation of 4.9%, continuing a significant decline from the previous value (June 5.5%)
- Overall PPI MoM: 0% (flat), below the expected 0.2%, stabilizing after the previous value (June -0.3%)
- Core conclusion: Upstream production inflation pressure continues to ease, echoing the cooling signal of July CPI, confirming the clear downward trend of US inflation.
2. Specific Impact on the Current Gold Market
1. Mid-term dimension: Strengthens the expectation of the end of the tightening cycle, underpinning the gold price base
PPI is a leading indicator of inflation, reflecting cost pressures on the production side of enterprises. The continued decline in PPI means downstream CPI lacks the upstream momentum for a rebound, further reducing the necessity for the Fed to restart rate hikes in September.
This signal consolidates the market baseline expectation that "the Fed's tightening cycle is nearing its end," limiting the upward space for real US Treasury yields and providing fundamental support for gold's mid-term trend, without changing the overall bullish direction.
2. Short-term dimension: Positive factors realized + insufficient influence, did not reverse the correction
This data did not push gold prices up; instead, spot gold fell about $7 shortly after the data release, maintaining fluctuations around $4380/oz. The core reasons are threefold:
1. Data influence weaker than CPI: PPI is a secondary inflation data point; the market's core pricing anchors are non-farm payrolls and CPI. This data only confirmed the existing conclusion of "inflation cooling," without releasing stronger-than-expected positive signals, failing to attract new long positions.
2. Positive factors at high levels realized early: Gold prices have rebounded over $400 from lows in this round, with ample profit-taking by longs. After July CPI was released, the market fully priced in the logic of easing rate hikes; with PPI released, no new bullish catalyst emerged, leading to continued profit-taking and a "positive factor realization decline" trend.
3. Overlay of hawkish expectations lingering: Previous hawkish Fed officials' statements are still influencing the market; the US dollar index and US Treasury yields stabilized slightly in the short term, further suppressing gold's short-term rebound momentum.
3. Subsequent Market Reference
- Short term: PPI will not change the current correction rhythm; gold prices will continue to test the support range of $4360-$4330. The short-term core drivers remain Fed officials' speeches and August inflation/employment data.
- Mid term: The simultaneous decline of CPI and PPI confirms the downward inflation trend; the baseline expectation of the Fed maintaining rates in September remains unchanged. After the correction completes, gold still has an upward foundation.$BTC 🩸【BTC Meat Grinder Lab｜August 13】
BTC Macro Narrative: CPI is positive, so why can't BTC rally?
The market waited all night for the CPI yesterday, and the result was not bad.
US July CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, basically in line with expectations.
According to the usual script:
Inflation moderates ↓
Rate cut expectations ↑
US Treasury yields ↓
Risk assets ↑
BTC 🚀
But the reality is:
BTC did not break through, instead it was pushed back near $63K.
This is the real point worth studying today.
🧨 01｜CPI is not bearish, but it also didn't give bulls new fuel
CPI did not create new inflation panic.
But the problem is:
The market already knew CPI wouldn't be too bad.
So after the positive news landed, no new funds chased the price.
This is a typical case of:
Positive news landing ≠ price increase.
BTC fell back from near $64K to around $63.5K, currently still in a consolidation range.
🏦 02｜Market starts switching from "CPI trade" to "Fed trade"
The real question now is no longer:
Is CPI good or not?
But rather:
When will the Fed truly pivot?
If upcoming employment, PCE, and real rates continue to cooperate:
➡️ Rate cut expectations heat up
➡️ US Treasury yields decline
➡️ USD comes under pressure
➡️ BTC gains new liquidity fuel
But if the Fed remains cautious:
➡️ CPI positive news gradually digested
➡️ BTC continues to consolidate
➡️ Altcoins struggle to form sustained rallies
So now:
Macro environment: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
But:
Trend certainty: ⭐⭐⭐
🩸 03｜The real BTC meat grinder is here
Both sides in the market are waiting.
Bulls:
"CPI is so moderate, 65K will break through sooner or later."
Bears:
"Positive news can't push price up, 63K will break sooner or later."
And BTC:
Keeps grinding back and forth between 63K and 64K.
So today, don't guess.
Just watch the conditions.
🟢 Holding above 64.3K again
→ Bulls regain initiative
→ ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🚀 Break and hold above 65K
→ Consolidation structure may truly end
→ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🔴 Break below 63K
→ CPI positive news digested by market
→ Bears start to dominate
→ ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
☠️ Lose 62.5K
→ Short-term structure clearly weakens
→ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Bear riskJust when it seemed like the PPI cooling down could give us a breather, someone from the Fed came out to "pour cold water".
Cleveland Fed President Harker directly stated — one rate hike might not be enough, several more are needed. Before the words even settled, $BTC and $ETH weakened. Risk assets fear this the most; once a hawkish signal sounds, funds rush to exit first.
Harker’s meaning is straightforward: a 25 basis point hike is like a mere tickle to the economy, not enough to suppress inflation. She also believes current rates haven’t effectively constrained the economy, and inflation won’t just obediently fall on its own. At the July meeting two weeks ago, she and two other officials already voted against maintaining rates, supporting immediate hikes. That stance is pretty firm, right?
But to be clear, this is just a personal view and does not represent a shift in the Fed’s overall stance. The July meeting ultimately kept rates unchanged, so don’t scare yourself.
Looking at the market — $ETH is facing selling pressure despite $ETF net outflows, $BTC has heavy sell orders above 64500, and small miners continue to offload, with mining costs around 74300; those who can’t hold on are already exiting. It’s already a "bullish news but no price rise" weak equilibrium, and now a hawkish statement just adds insult to injury.
Harker’s words may not actually change much, but they’ve thrown a stone onto an already shaky scale — small, but enough to break the deadlock. If $BTC can’t hold above 64000 and $ETH can’t break 1900, that’s weakness.
Before the Fed officially speaks, every hawkish statement’s impact must be taken seriously.
$BTC $ETH 友友们，今晚聊个热乎的，芯片股带着韩股十天反弹了22%多，这力度确实猛，存储芯片周期反转的预期越来越强。闪迪这名字最近又火起来了，很多人问还能不能追。 先看这波反弹的逻辑。韩股这波主要靠三星、SK海力士这些存储巨头拉起来的，AI服务器对HBM、DDR5的需求爆炸，加上原厂减产控价，存储芯片价格一季度就开始往上走，市场在抢跑业绩反转。美股那边费城半导体指数也是连续走强，$NVDA、$AMD、$MU、$WDC这些芯片和存储股都在涨，情绪已经起来了。 闪迪这公司，之前被西部数据收了，后来分拆重新上市，等于把闪存业务单独拎出来。它跟$MU、$WDC一样，都是吃存储涨价周期的。短期看，股价已经涨了一大波，是不是透支了？我觉得要分两面看：如果后面涨价持续，财报出来超预期，那还能往上顶一顶；但如果今晚美股整体回调，或者大资金开始获利了结，这种前期涨得猛的很容易先被砸。所以我的看法是，没上车的别无脑追高，等回调缩量再考虑；已经在车上的可以拿一部分利润，别贪。 今晚美股怎么布局？芯片股这情绪大概率还能延续，但要注意两个事：一个是油价，霍尔木兹那边还没完全消停，油价如果突然飙，通胀预期又起来，对成长股是压Brothers, don’t just stare at the K-line charts!
Nowadays, just knowing how to read charts isn’t enough for crypto trading. What really determines the price rise or fall next isn’t drawing lines, but three places: the offices of those big shots in Washington, the Federal Reserve’s meeting room, and the warships in the Strait of Hormuz!
Don’t rush in yet, let me break it down:
First cut: CPI data (inflation)
If inflation drops, the Fed has reason to ease monetary policy, more money flows into the market, and crypto prices naturally rise. But here’s the catch— even if they ease, will the money really flow into our crypto circle? That’s the key. Don’t just blindly rush in when you hear CPI dropped.
Second cut: US regulatory hammer (SEC + CLARITY Act)
In September, the US plans to push the “CLARITY Act,” basically to give cryptocurrencies a “legal status.” If it passes, it’s huge good news; if it gets stuck, the market will be in chaos again. When Washington farts, the crypto world trembles.
Third cut: Strait of Hormuz (war)
If a war breaks out there, oil prices will skyrocket, and inflation will immediately come back. Then the Fed won’t just ease; if they don’t keep raising rates, that’s already good. This beats any technical indicator.
---
So my current strategy is very simple, just focus on these four coins:
· BTC: The market’s barometer, whether institutions enter depends on it.
· ETH: Moves with the market rotation, Ethereum’s solid fundamentals are there.
· SOL: Highly volatile, suitable for brothers who like to take risks.
· HYPE: Strong on-chain derivatives, has heat.
· OKB: OKX’s own ecosystem + Layer 2 development, the story is still unfolding.
To sum it up honestly:
Macro policy → Is there money in the market → Is the story good → Then the price moves.
Don’t treat every piece of news as good news; think about how they connect. CPI decides the Fed’s mood, SEC decides compliance progress, Hormuz decides if inflation will repeat.
---
Brothers, which are you most worried about now? Inflation repeating? Regulatory blockage? Or a real war breaking out?
Let’s chat in the comments, let’s analyze together, don’t just guess by yourself!
(This is just casual talk, not investment advice, buy and sell at your own discretion.)🔥 SNDK Investor Day: Make or Break
SanDisk is heading into tonight’s Investor Day with the stock still far below its June peak.
The fundamentals look explosive:
📈 Revenue: $8.965B
📈 YoY growth: +372%
💰 Gross margin: 84.6%
So why has the stock been crushed?
Because the market isn't questioning the numbers — it's questioning how sustainable they are.
A large portion of the revenue growth has come from pricing rather than shipment volume. If NAND pricing cools, the market wants to know how much of today's profitability survives.
Tonight, three questions matter:
1️⃣ Is the 84.6% gross margin sustainable?
If management can't defend these margins, investors may treat them as peak-cycle numbers.
2️⃣ How strong are the long-term contracts?
If a significant portion of margins is protected by long-term agreements, that could challenge the "NAND cycle peak" thesis.
3️⃣ When do the new AI-focused products actually generate revenue?
The new 2Tb flash product with Kioxia sounds promising, but investors need production timelines and concrete revenue contribution — not just another AI story.
The market is already positioning for a big move.
SNDK has bounced more than 6% from its lows, while analyst sentiment remains heavily bullish.
Tonight could be the watershed moment:
🚀 Strong guidance + sustainable margins + AI demand = potential recovery.
📉 Weak guidance + peak-margin concerns + vague answers = another leg of selling.
I'm watching closely.
Numbers, not hype. Execution, not promises.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH
#SNDK #Semiconductors #AI #Stocks #InvestorDay #MarketAnalysisGold is a bit expensive at its current price.
A rough summary of the precious metals bull market logic: central banks continuously buying gold + de-dollarization and geopolitical factors.
Although central banks are the biggest buyers of gold, they are not buyers who chase prices infinitely.
In Q1, when gold prices were high, central banks had a net purchase of 57 tons; after gold prices fell in Q2, they bought 289 tons, purely buying more when prices dropped and watching when prices rose.
So I judge that gold still has a premium of 800 to 1000, and the downtrend will continue.
But BTC is different.
Its rise will not bring more supply; high volatility and cyclicality will instead attract more funds into the market to scramble for positions.MMT dropped 14.84% in 24 hours — pressure remains. In the last 12 hours, down 4.93%, sales pace has increased (volume grew 1.94 times). The nearest support is at 0.1645, but until the price holds above it — downside risks persist. If we lose this level, the next move could be sharp. Scenarios depend on today's volumes.YES, BITCOIN IS BORING. THE TEST IS SUPPOSED TO BE.
Wyckoff accumulation runs in order. Spring sweeps the lows and clears the last sellers.
Then the test comes back down, slowly, and dares everyone who bought the spring to give it up.
2022 ran that exact sequence before the SOS took price out of the range.
Bitcoin printed its spring in July. The test is happening now, with price at $63,726.
Lose $58K on a weekly close and the count is wrong.
The test isn't a warning that it failed. It's the last part before it works.$BTC NVIDIA has called the AI infrastructure financing pool to over $500 billion. The first thing I think of is not how much higher the chips can go, but who is paying the interest on this batch of GPUs. Wall Street is packaging computing power as a long-term asset, calculating profits louder than the fans.
On the other hand, Render's rendering and AI tasks are settled with RENDER on Solana. This is not a direct benefit to SOL, but two ledgers of the same computing power business: one looks at financing costs, the other at real tasks and on-chain payments.
I will focus on whether task payments and token burns can synchronize, rather than who shines the "AI" label brighter.
I am often a step slow, but it's better than losing my shoes while running. The excitement is one thing, but the books must ultimately balance.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of risks. #$SOL Alright, let's talk straight.
Stop staring at the K-line and doing pointless analysis. The real factors that can kick the coin price to the curb aren't even on the charts.
The folks in Washington banging the table, the Fed old man changing his tune, or the Middle East blowing up an oil pipeline—any one of these moves is way more effective than Musk tweeting.
Right now, the three mountains that can decide the fate of the crypto world are:
First: CPI, the Fed's tightening curse
Inflation dropped a bit in July, looks like a breather.
But good data ≠ money flowing in the market. The Fed has to really cut rates and really inject money for coin prices to rise. Right now, it's just "not so bad," far from "getting better."
Don't rush in just because CPI dropped, that's how you get hurt.
Second: SEC, the crypto watchdog
The CLARITY Act got pushed to September again.
Frankly, crypto is still an outlaw in the US. The SEC says this is a security today, sues that exchange tomorrow, making everyone nervous. As long as there's no clear approval, big money won't move.
Third: Strait of Hormuz, the real black swan nest
If US-Iran talks fail, and they actually fight or block the strait, oil prices will skyrocket.
Chain reaction: oil price up → inflation up → Fed forced to hike rates → money pulled from crypto → everyone crashes together.
If this really happens, no technical analysis will save you, you can't run fast enough.
So what should I watch now?
Not who pumps the market hard, but these:
$BTC: Do big institutions dare to buy?
$ETH: Does capital dare to move from BTC to the ecosystem?
$SOL: Rises and falls sharply, feel if the market is crazy or not
$HYPE: Is the on-chain casino lively? Liveliness means players are entering
$OKB: Platform coin is just a side player, but can at least hold in a bear market
Finally, a heartfelt word:
The next big move will most likely come because Washington issued a document, the Fed changed its tone, or the Middle East fired a shot—not because of some golden or death cross.
Watch the news more, watch the K-line less, protecting your principal is the best.
Which of these three mountains do you think will blow first? 👇Making big money in the crypto space has little to do with coin selection ability; the core is still position management.
Let's look at the Three Arrows Capital case.
Three Arrows Capital's coin selection ability is recognized as top-tier in the entire industry.
At the 2018 bear market bottom, they precisely took heavy positions in BTC and ETH, gaining fame in one battle.
They also hit multiple hundredfold star public chains early in the primary market, with track record accuracy far exceeding 99% of institutions in sector judgment.
At its peak, they managed over $18 billion in assets.
But 3AC went from about $10 billion in scale to liquidation in June 2022, in less than two months. The cause of death was not wrong coin selection.
Let's see how they self-destructed.
1. Large-scale subscription of GBTC, used as collateral to borrow from institutions, then subscribing to GBTC again, in a cycle. As a result, Grayscale Bitcoin ETF applications were continuously rejected, GBTC had a minimum discount of 34%, and collateral value shrank.
2. stETH leveraged loop: native ETH deposited into the Lido protocol, exchanged for stETH, then used as collateral to buy more ETH deposited into Lido, repeating the cycle.
3. Heavy positions in the LUNA/UST ecosystem (invested about $200 million to $560 million), while holding dozens of altcoins plus hundreds of early projects, most of which were locked tokens.
4. Cross-platform long borrowing: almost all leading CeFi platforms, as well as DeFi protocols like Aave and Compound, repeatedly used the same set of asset-backed credit, some even unsecured loans, all relying on 3AC's industry reputation as endorsement.
5. After 2021, completely abandoned bear market hedging strategies, fully exposed long positions, firmly believing in the crypto supercycle, thinking the bear market would only be a short correction.
The result was a major crisis.
In May 2022, Terra ecosystem's UST algorithmic stablecoin de-pegged, LUNA price fell from $119 to nearly zero within days, wiping out 3AC's hundreds of millions in holdings.
In June 2022, stETH de-pegged, ETH dropped from $3000 to below $2000, margin was liquidated.
At this time, Three Arrows Capital also faced liquidity exhaustion, no money to top up positions.
GBTC was locked shares, unsellable;
Primary market tokens were all locked, illiquid;
LUNA was already worthless;
The more stETH they sold, the worse the price dropped, worsening the de-pegging.
The result: Three Arrows Capital officially went bankrupt.
We always focus on which coin can make big money, but rarely consider how to manage position sizes to reduce risk, and risk always arrives when you think there is none.
The 312 event in 2020, the 519 event in 2021, the 2024 yen carry trade liquidation, and the 1011 largest liquidation in history in 2025
These events had enough destructive power to wipe out altcoin profits and cause 2x leverage liquidations.
Howard Marks once said a famous quote:
You can't avoid risk — but you can manage it.
You cannot completely avoid risk, but you can manage it.
This is the benefit of the three-position system.
60% core position should be in Bitcoin, a long-term static asset that won't suffer large drawdowns even in bear markets and extreme events.
30% strategy position in ETH, BNB, SOL, altcoins, and other high-volatility assets to seek excess returns and cash out in bull markets. Holding through bull markets without selling is an unforgivable mistake.
10% cash position to wait for extreme market conditions to buy bargains.
Some people lose everything and exit due to too large altcoin and leveraged positions during extreme market conditions; even 2x leverage would liquidate in last year's 1011 event.
As said before: position management outweighs coin selection ability, with a weight ratio of 7:3.July CPI landing is not considered dovish; this was the core influence on yesterday's market.
This data can only reduce the probability of a September rate hike but cannot directly eliminate the risk of a rate hike, so funds repriced inflation pressure overnight, and high-elasticity crypto assets like Bitcoin naturally got constrained.
CME swaps show the probability of a September rate hike rising from the previous low of 36% to 40.4%, still in a sensitive game zone. Tonight's PPI is the key to deciding short-term liquidity and affecting the strength of Bitcoin and sector coins.
Simply distinguish the two: CPI looks at consumer-side inflation, PPI represents corporate cost pressure. Tonight's PPI carries more weight than CPI in influencing September rate hike expectations and directly determines short-term risk appetite in the crypto market.
Focus on whether nominal PPI and core PPI break the 0.2% expectation line, with four scenario simulations:
✅ Best case: Nominal PPI ≤ 0.1%, Core PPI ≤ 0.2%
CPI + PPI cool down simultaneously, further weakening September rate hike expectations, liquidity expectations improve, benefiting Bitcoin and risk assets
✅ Moderate case: Nominal 0.2%, Core 0.3%
Inflation slightly eases, consistent with CPI rhythm, slightly suppressing rate hike expectations but not dovish enough, crypto market unlikely to have a one-sided big rebound
⚠️ Poor case: Nominal ≥ 0.3%, Core 0.4%
Corporate inflation rebounds, pushing up September rate hike probability, suppressing risk assets outside USD and US bonds, Bitcoin likely under pressure
❌ Worst case: Nominal ≥ 0.4%, Core ≥ 0.5%
Consumer and corporate inflation diverge, inflation rebound expectations reemerge, directly overturning July CPI optimism, rate hike expectations rise, crypto market should beware of correction risk
Current CME pricing for September rate hike probability is 40.4%. My personal judgment is that tonight will most likely fall into the moderate case.
Currently, USD, US bonds, and gold volatility are very low, funds have not priced in advance, the market is overall cautious, and Bitcoin is also waiting for this macro signal to choose direction. $BTC $ETH $ETH $BTC #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Ethereum is ready to take off
Let's talk about some data many people haven't noticed:
BTC market cap is 1.27 trillion, ETH is 228.4 billion, a size difference of 5.6 times.
But the 24h trading volume: BTC 21.99 billion, ETH 7.02 billion, narrowing the gap to 3.1 times.
This discrepancy is much more interesting than the surface ranking.
BTC is increasingly like a "portfolio ballast"—buyers don't necessarily trade it daily; when it rises slowly, it acts like an asset on the balance sheet, and when it rises fast, it acts like the main valve of risk sentiment.
Its trading volume is more easily driven by ETFs, macro hedging, and dollar liquidity.
ETH is different.
Its market cap is smaller, but turnover is much higher.
It carries DeFi, L2, staking yields, and altcoin rotation expectations simultaneously, so both positive and negative news are more easily amplified by trading activity.
So when incremental funds enter the market:
BTC is responsible for "opening the door"—confirming the trend;
ETH is responsible for "thickening the volatility"—amplifying elasticity.
This is also ETH's contradiction:
Its market cap isn't large enough, so its stability is naturally weaker than BTC;
But its higher trading share proves it is not a fringe asset.
When trends are confirmed, ETH is more likely to accelerate with momentum;
Conversely, when the dollar rebounds, US bond yields rise, and risk appetite contracts, it is also more likely to be the first to be hammered into a deep pit.
Higher Beta assets like SOL will follow ETH's sentiment spillover, but the pricing anchor still depends first on whether ETH can hold the funds.
The core issue right now is not "whether ETH is cheap."
It's whether the market is ultimately controlled by allocation funds or trading funds.
If the former dominates, BTC continues to absorb certainty premiums;
If the latter returns, ETH's elasticity will emerge from its trading activity.BTC 在 63400 晃了一天，山寨却偷偷涨了 30%，这种热闹和冷清并存的画面，总让我觉得哪里不对劲。 你有没有发现，最近大饼的波动越来越像"假动作"——涨一点就触发止损，跌一点又拉回来，方向感全无，但合约账户里的钱却在悄悄蒸发？ 说真的，这轮行情不是没有波动，而是波动全跑去了那些没人敢重仓的小币种。APR 一根针直接拉 30%，多少人做空的仓位瞬间爆掉；BICO 这种被套住的币反而死扛着不跌，像是有人在硬托。大饼从 64400 一路阴跌，没有放量，没有恐慌盘，就是单纯没人愿意接。 我盯盘盯到有点想吐，但心里其实很清楚，现在市场交易的根本不是基本面，而是衍生品结构本身。 - 大饼的期权隐含波动率一直压得很低，说明大家都在等一个方向，但谁都不敢先动手，这种状态最消耗资金。 - 资金费率在 63400 附近反复横跳，多空谁都没占到便宜，偏偏每次插针都能精准打掉止损，这是典型的"收割区间"。 - 山寨的暴涨暴跌更像是对冲基金在借波动率溢价出货，而不是新资金进场。 我的理解是，现在市场定价的核心不是"涨还是跌"，而是"波动率被压到极致后，谁先被挤爆"。大饼站不上 65000，山寨的行情就只If Bitcoin goes up, I will find the target price
and then share it, hoping to discuss some parts together, so
Even looking at charts from as far back as 2013,
when the downtrend starts, the daily 200-day moving average is
touched twice,
almost always marking the end of the downtrend.
At the second touch, it then directly skyrockets without limit, followed by
a major correction below the 200-day moving average,
and then another upward pattern.
Of course, there are only 3 samples, so if this is the 4th time,
we can't just say that because the sample size is insufficient. Compiled a list of the annual lowest points for Bitcoin, revealing several harsh patterns worth pondering:
· 2012: $4
· 2013: $13 (+225%)
· 2014: $300 (-77%, bear market purge)
· 2015: $190 (bottom consolidation)
· 2016: $360 (eve of halving)
· 2017: $780 (bull market kickoff)
· 2018: $3,200 (-84% crash)
· 2019: $3,400 (recovery)
· 2020: $3,800 (312 black swan)
· 2021: $28,700 (bull market correction bottom)
· 2022: $15,500 (FTX collapse, -46%)
· 2023: $16,600 (bottom building)
· 2024: $39,400 (pullback after ETF approval)
· 2025: $76,300 (mid-bull market bottom)
· 2026: $58,000 (lowest point as of today)
💡 Core insight: The bottom is rising in a stepwise fashion. 2025 low at 76,300 → 2026 low at 58,000, current pullback about -24%, much less than the previous bear market's -46%. If this level is this year's bottom, there is still plenty of room to imagine for next year's halving rally. Don't sell your chips in panic. $BTC 🚨 BTC & ETH JUST GOT HIT — AND THE REAL DRIVER ISN’T CRYPTO.
Something felt off as the night session opened.
BTC and ETH sold off sharply after fresh Strait of Hormuz tensions, while oil $CL held above $82. That’s a sign markets are starting to price geopolitical risk back in.
Here’s the chain traders are watching:
🛢️ Hormuz risk → oil higher
📈 Oil higher → inflation expectations rise
🏦 Higher inflation → fewer Fed cuts
⚠️ Less easing → pressure on risk assets
The US-Iran talks still look far from a real breakthrough, with the biggest issue being how any agreement would actually be implemented.
Now comes the key test: CPI.
If inflation continues cooling, some of this pressure could ease.
But if CPI comes in hot, crypto could face a nasty macro + geopolitical double squeeze.
For now, I’m not chasing the night-session volatility.
Let the CPI numbers speak first. The next move could depend more on inflation than the candles on the chart.
$BTC $ETH $BZ $CL
#CPI #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Hormuz
#DailyOrbit 加密交易所Bullish公布了2026年第二季度财务业绩，数字资产交易额326亿美元，较去年同期的586亿美元下降44%；净亏损2.8亿美元，去年同期为1.083亿美元，亏损同比扩大158%。 加密交易所 Bullish 刚刚交出了一份“冰火两重天”的季度成绩单： 交易额：326 亿美元，较去年同期的 586 亿美元下降 44%，市场活跃度明显萎缩 净亏损：2.8 亿美元，相比去年同期 1.083 亿美元的亏损，亏损幅度扩大 158% 调整后收入：9,260 万美元，仍保持一定收入体量 调整后 EBITDA：2,950 万美元，核心业务仍处于正向现金流区间 订阅、服务及其他收入：6,270 万美元，在交易额腰斩的背景下成为本季最大结构性亮点 关键解读 交易额腰斩，反映市场活跃度下降。 326亿美元的交易额较去年同期下降44%，与整个加密市场在2026年第二季度的低迷表现一致——比特币从高点回落、波动率收窄、散户交易热情降温，直接影响交易所的核心收入来源。 亏损扩大至2.8亿美元，成本结构承压。 虽然调整后收入和EBITDA为正，但净亏损的大幅扩大意味着公司在运营成本、市场拓展或资产减值President's Post Civilization Code Pricing: $100,000 per Month, Faster by a Few Milliseconds Than the Whole World
At 2 a.m., Trump posted on Truth Social—"Decided to impose a 25% tariff on a certain country."
0.3 seconds later, a high-frequency trading firm's server captured this information and automatically executed short-selling orders on related stocks.
3 seconds later, your phone notification finally rings.
By the time you open it, the market has already moved.
The price difference was completely taken by the company that paid for it.
You're not slow to react. You're simply not on the same starting line.
This is not science fiction. This is a business officially launched on August 1, 2026.
It's called "Truth API."
A paid data service launched by Trump Media & Technology Group, specifically targeting Wall Street high-frequency trading firms.
The monthly fee is $100,000. Signing a three-year contract can get a discount down to $60,000.
What are you buying?
The privilege to see Trump's posts "a few milliseconds" earlier than the rest of the world.
The service covers the 10 most influential accounts on the platform, including Trump himself.
More than 10 high-frequency trading firms have already signed up.
According to the acting CEO, just the initial signed clients are expected to bring in $7 million to $12 million in recurring annual revenue.
Some might say: "Isn't it just selling an API? Bloomberg and Reuters also sell data."
The difference is huge.
Bloomberg sells market data. Reuters sells news aggregation.
Trump sells—policy information released by himself as president that can directly impact global markets.
In other words: he is pricing "the mouth of the U.S. president" openly.
The plaintiffs The Intercept and the Freedom of the Press Foundation clearly stated in their complaint—this service is "extraordinary, corrupt, and unconstitutional." The lawsuit cites the First Amendment (equal access to government information) and the Fifth Amendment (no unreasonable conditions for accessing public benefits).
This is not a theoretical risk. It has already happened.
In March this year, 15 minutes before Trump posted a key message "delaying attacks on Iran," the crude oil futures market suddenly saw an abnormal $580 million transaction, precisely shorting oil prices.
After the post, oil prices plummeted 25%.
Traders who positioned early profited handsomely instantly.
On another occasion, before Trump released signals of easing war tensions, the market saw multiple large bets totaling over $3.5 billion.
Time and again, precise "front-running."
Previously, such operations relied on "inside information" or "private connections."
Now? Trump's team has turned it into a standardized product and sells it publicly.
This is even more alarming for the crypto market.
Trump frequently posts market-influencing policy statements on Truth Social, from tariffs to war to monetary policy. Truth API's paying clients can process post content and execute trading instructions within milliseconds.
Bitcoin, Ethereum—all crypto assets are within the reach of this information gap.
Research firm Fundstrat's data shows that during this administration, the five best and worst trading days for the S&P 500 index were all directly triggered by Trump's social media posts.
On April 9, 2025, a single post by Trump "suspending tariff increases" caused the S&P 500 to surge 9% in one day.
One post, 9% volatility.
How much did those who saw this post a few milliseconds earlier make?
Unimaginable. More subtly, Trump's media group's financial status.
Since its founding in 2021, the company has never posted a profitable quarter, with cumulative losses exceeding $1 billion.
Last quarter's revenue was only $1.7 million, but net loss reached $238 million.
The stock price has shrunk by more than 35% this year.
Trump holds 41% of the company's shares through a trust.
The company loses money, and the president's equity is shrinking.
Then they launched Truth API—$100,000 per month, selling the president's posts to Wall Street.
Subscription revenue flows directly into this publicly traded company majority-owned by Trump.
Think about it, really think about it.
Former White House chief ethics lawyer Richard Painter said:
"If I were an SEC commissioner, I would threaten to resign unless they stop this plan." Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Adam Schiff have already written to the SEC, requesting an investigation into whether this service "undermines the fairness of financial markets."
The SEC confirmed receipt of the letter but refused to disclose whether an investigation has been launched.
So here’s the question—
Do you think paying to get presidential posts early is a normal business model, or a disguised form of insider trading?
Some say: It's normal for tech platforms to sell data access rights.
But the problem is—these posts are not ordinary content; they are official policy statements from the president.
When a country's president's policy statements are no longer public signals for all but financial chips that can be unlocked early for a fee—
The fairness baseline of capital markets is being torn open.
Ordinary investors look at the same phone screen.
Wall Street firms pay $100,000 a month to harvest the spread at millisecond speed.
This is not an information gap.
This is information privilege. 🚨 US PPI LOWER THAN FORECAST – POSITIVE SIGNAL FOR BTC
Monthly PPI only reached 0.0%, lower than the 0.2% forecast.
Annual PPI dropped to 4.7%, below the 4.9% forecast.
Core PPI also increased just 0.2%, less than the 0.3% forecast.
This signals that input inflation pressure is cooling down, helping to ease monetary policy pressure on the market.
However, BTC is still trading around 63,500 USD with no candle close confirming a reversal yet. Good news but the price hasn't surged strongly, indicating cautious buying. Prioritize monitoring the reaction at the support zone, do not FOMO on the first spike.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $OKB BTC vs ETH: An Underrated Truth About Liquidity
Market Cap: BTC 1.27 trillion vs ETH 228.4 billion, a 5.6x difference
Trading Volume: BTC 21.99 billion vs ETH 7.02 billion, narrowed to 3.1x
This gap is more interesting than the rankings.
BTC increasingly acts like a "portfolio ballast"—buyers don’t necessarily trade it daily; when it rises slowly, it’s like a balance sheet, and when it rises fast, it acts as a main valve for risk sentiment. It’s driven by ETFs, macro hedging, and dollar liquidity.
ETH’s market cap is smaller, but its turnover is tougher.
It carries DeFi, L2, staking yields, and altcoin rotation expectations simultaneously, with both bullish and bearish factors amplified by trading activity.
So:
For incremental inflows, BTC is responsible for "opening the door," while ETH is responsible for "thickening the volatility."
ETH’s contradictions:
Market cap isn’t large enough, so its stability is naturally weaker than BTC;
Higher proportion of tradable volume proves it’s not a fringe asset.
With trend confirmation, ETH is easier to chase for acceleration;
When the dollar rebounds and US bond yields rise, ETH is also more likely to be dumped into a deep pit first.
High Beta assets like SOL will follow ETH’s sentiment spillover, but the pricing anchor first depends on whether ETH can hold the funds.
Right now, the core issue isn’t "whether ETH is cheap," but whether the market is dominated by allocation capital or trading capital.
If the former dominates → BTC continues to absorb certainty premium;
If the latter returns → ETH’s elasticity will emerge from trading activity.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$BTC $ETH $SOL PPI Data: US July PPI year-on-year +4.7% (expected 4.9%, previous 5.5%), month-on-month 0.0% (expected +0.2%). Following yesterday's broad cooling of CPI, PPI again fell below expectations, creating a "second wave of inflation cooling" resonance. The market will further lower the probability of a September rate hike (already down from about 54% a week ago to about 40%, with PPI likely to drop below 35%), which is mid-term bullish for gold.
Capital Transactions: SPDR Gold ETF net inflows in the first two weeks of August have exceeded $2 billion; the People's Bank of China has purchased gold for 21 consecutive months and expanded its holdings for 5 consecutive months; mining stock ETFs have simultaneously turned positive—funds are substantially flowing back.
Support/Resistance: Support at 4388 (MA100) → 4370–4360 ("iron bottom") → 4330 (bull lifeline); Resistance at 4420 → 4440–4450 (institutional dense order zone) → 4494–4500.
Today in the Asian session, after surging to 4449, profit-taking was concentrated, the daily RSI has entered the overbought zone, and a bearish divergence appeared on the 4-hour chart, indicating a "pullback within an uptrend" in the short term. Tonight at 20:40, Fed's Barkin speaks hawkishly; if he reiterates rate hike risks or if Middle East oil prices fluctuate, gold may retest 4380–4360; breaking below 4360 would indicate short-term weakness, requiring exit and observation.
$XAU #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #黄金维持高位，机构年末仍看涨 I was wondering why Bitcoin was dropping so smoothly, and it turns out MicroStrategy has been selling coins for two consecutive weeks.
Maybe it was also due to my recent oversight in analysis that I missed such an important piece of information. I originally planned to check yesterday whether MicroStrategy had publicly updated its recent holdings, but the update time has already passed three days.
I believe this can roughly explain why ETF institutions have been so bearish on Bitcoin these days.
Strategy sold over 1,600 coins last week, almost the same as the week before last.
Combined with data from recent weeks, it means that except for two weeks with no action in the past six weeks, the other four weeks were all net selling.
This contrasts with the familiar market logic of "Strategy continuously financing to buy BTC."
If the next week still continues to reduce BTC holdings, then the level of this signal will be obviously different.
It is possible that the trigger for the next wave of sell-off will be a chain reaction caused by the market confidence dropping to a certain critical point due to MicroStrategy's continuous multi-week reduction strategy.
Therefore, considering the actions of ETF funds and MicroStrategy, there really is no reason to go long on BTC.
Better to honestly short.
Short on rebounds; it feels like there is now an additional reason to hold.
The above is just a personal analysis record and not investment advice.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 $BTC U.S. official data showed that July PPI was 0% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from -0.3% in June; core PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% and unchanged from June. Overall prices have shifted from negative growth to zero growth, but have not returned to the market's expected increase, indicating that inflationary momentum on the production side remains moderate.
The PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month in March, rose to 1.4% in April, fell to 1.1% in May, turned -0.3% in June, and although July recovered compared to June, it was still below the levels from March to May. The core PPI did not rebound with the overall item, indicating that price pressure after excluding volatility items did not accelerate.
For the Fed, the July PPI was weaker than expected, consistent with previous narratives of easing inflationary pressures. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.75%, this data may reduce the need for further short-term rate hikes, but the overall PPI has returned from negative in June back to zero growth, and the market's judgment on the policy path still needs to continue tracking subsequent inflation and employment data.July CPI landing is not considered dovish; this was the core influence on yesterday's market.
This data can only reduce the probability of a September rate hike but cannot directly eliminate the risk of a rate hike, so funds repriced inflation pressure overnight, and high-elasticity crypto assets like Bitcoin naturally got constrained.
CME swaps show the probability of a September rate hike rising from the previous low of 36% to 40.4%, still in a sensitive game zone. Tonight's PPI is the key to deciding short-term liquidity and affecting the strength of Bitcoin and sector coins.
Simply distinguish the two: CPI looks at consumer-side inflation, PPI represents corporate cost pressure. Tonight's PPI carries more weight than CPI in influencing September rate hike expectations and directly determines short-term risk appetite in the crypto market.
Focus on whether nominal PPI and core PPI break the 0.2% expectation line, with four scenario simulations:
✅ Best case: Nominal PPI ≤ 0.1%, Core PPI ≤ 0.2%
CPI + PPI cool down simultaneously, further weakening September rate hike expectations, liquidity expectations improve, benefiting Bitcoin and risk assets
✅ Moderate case: Nominal 0.2%, Core 0.3%
Inflation slightly eases, consistent with CPI rhythm, slightly suppressing rate hike expectations but not dovish enough, crypto market unlikely to have a one-sided big rebound
⚠️ Poor case: Nominal ≥ 0.3%, Core 0.4%
Corporate inflation rebounds, pushing up September rate hike probability, suppressing risk assets outside USD and US bonds, Bitcoin likely under pressure
❌ Worst case: Nominal ≥ 0.4%, Core ≥ 0.5%
Consumer and corporate inflation diverge, inflation rebound expectations reemerge, directly overturning July CPI optimism, rate hike expectations rise, crypto market should beware of correction risk
Current CME pricing for September rate hike probability is 40.4%. My personal judgment is that tonight will most likely fall into the moderate case.
Currently, USD, US bonds, and gold volatility are very low, funds have not priced in advance, the market is overall cautious, and Bitcoin is also waiting for this macro signal to choose direction. $BTC $ETH