Orbit Post Sitemap
Then here are the parts about SanDisk and Hynix.
The more interesting point is that Hynix has already started entering the resistance zone, which will press down to 1500. Compared to that, SanDisk still has a bit of room to rise.
In the short term, I suggest everyone who really wants to short wait a bit longer and not rush. In the long term, it is still in a bearish trend and has not reversed yet, so everyone should pay more attention.
However, the entire major index is rising now, which is a positive factor. So I think if you want to act, wait for it to rise a bit more, reach the resistance zone, and then consider shorting for the short term. As for whether to invest in these two companies long term, that depends on personal judgment.
Regarding news, this wave of collective memory sector surge is mainly due to the Singapore sovereign fund Temasek planning to directly invest in Samsung Electronics and Hynix, plus SanDisk and Hynix jointly announcing the HBF open technology specification, with multiple foreign capital institutions successively raising target prices. In terms of financial reports, SanDisk's latest quarter data center business revenue surged 645%, with a gross margin reaching 84.6%; Hynix's current P/E ratio is about 19.5 times, SanDisk about 18.6 times, relatively low compared to other AI-related semiconductor stocks.
Additionally, yesterday upstream cloud service provider Nebius reported revenue growth of 454% year-over-year and revealed backlog orders reaching $37.5 billion. The market interprets this as cloud providers locking in multi-year GPU capacity, which will in turn drive memory demand, being one of the indirect factors behind the entire sector's surge yesterday.What really matters today is not how much gold has risen, but that the Bank of Korea has entered the market.
It's the first time in 13 years.
In Q2, the Bank of Korea bought nearly 680,000 shares of the SPDR Gold ETF, about $250 million. This is their first time touching gold since 2013. Why act now? Several factors have come together.
South Korea's foreign reserves are 427.3 billion, with gold accounting for only 4.79 billion, or 1.1%. Globally, it ranks 98th in gold holdings, which is completely inconsistent with its 13th place in foreign reserve size. The 104 tons of gold bought 13 years ago have never been moved. Now, with inflation changing, geopolitical shifts, and weakening US dollar credit, they finally can't sit still.
$250 million is a drop in the bucket compared to over 400 billion in reserves, but this might just be the beginning. It signals to the market that even a central bank of South Korea's level is starting to reallocate into gold.
What does this have to do with crypto? In the short term, it has nothing to do with BTC; South Korea's money went into gold ETFs, not BTC. Gold has risen 8%, while BTC remains sideways, with correlation broken.
But in the medium term, it's a signal. The Bank of Korea hasn't touched gold for 13 years, and now it has started buying. Sovereign-level funds are beginning to reallocate into non-sovereign assets, which supports the long-term narrative for BTC. It's not that BTC will immediately rise, but the logic is moving in that direction.
Simply put, gold is pricing in rate cut expectations and acting as a safe haven, while BTC is still digesting its own factors. When BTC's own catalysts arrive, that will be the real resonance.
$BTC $OKB #黄金维持高位，韩国央行重返市场 A Tale of Two Extremes: Storage Triumvirate Surges, Bitcoin and Ethereum Stuck in Turbulence
On August 13, 2026, the capital markets showed no signs of convergence in their divergence; instead, the gap widened. The "three musketeers" of storage chips continued their strong rally, while Bitcoin and Ethereum remained locked in a dull, narrow range with unclear direction.
Storage Sector: Rally Continues, Unstoppable Momentum
On August 13, U.S. stock storage sector opened strong and kept rising. Western Digital rose over 2.5%, SanDisk $SNDK gained more than 2%, SK Hynix rose over 2%, and Micron $MU Technology increased by 1.8%. The previous trading day saw a full-scale breakout in the storage sector—SK Hynix ADR surged 9.01% to $154.41, SanDisk rose 5.76%, Micron Technology gained 4.92%, Seagate Technology climbed 7.03%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 2.49%.
The core logic driving this sustained rally remains solid. Micron's Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer clearly stated that the AI wave continues to push demand higher, capacity expansion struggles to keep pace, and supply tightness is expected to persist beyond 2027, with the supply-demand balance in 2027 projected to be even tighter than in 2026. Morgan Stanley dubbed the soaring memory prices as "chip inflation," believing that high prices will not end soon. On the news front, Temasek is reportedly planning direct investments in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, viewing storage chips in the AI supply chain as still undervalued. Counterpoint data also shows that enterprise SSDs accounted for 48% of total bit shipments in Q2 2026. Storage chips have fully evolved from consumer electronics accessories to core strategic assets of AI infrastructure.
Crypto Market: Low Volume Sideways, Stuck Between Two Difficulties
In stark contrast to the booming storage sector, the cryptocurrency market continues to struggle in dullness. On August 13, Bitcoin opened at $63,410, down 0.2% from the previous day, fluctuating within a very narrow range around $63,600 throughout the day, with a 24-hour amplitude of only 0.24%. Ethereum $ETH also consolidated near $1,880, showing short-term weakness.
Bitcoin’s daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly trends have all turned negative. Although the U.S. July CPI dropped to 3.4% as expected, cooling inflation and briefly boosting U.S. stocks, Bitcoin did not follow the rebound. Crypto traders are still weighing two major suppressing factors: first, ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed; second, the unresolved question of whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in September, with the market pricing only a 60% probability of no rate hike.
Order book data shows a clear advantage for sell orders, with a buy-sell depth ratio of only 0.12. Small miners and crypto companies continue to sell assets, further intensifying supply pressure. Bitcoin is down 6.5% from a month ago and 47.2% from a year ago; Ethereum’s decline from a year ago is even steeper at 59.1%.
Source of Divergence: Industry Transformation vs. Geopolitical Macro
The stark contrast between storage chips and the crypto market reflects fundamentally different driving logics. The storage sector’s rise is supported by solid industry fundamentals—a structural demand shift driven by AI computing power combined with rigid capacity supply, creating a sustainable supply-demand mismatch. Bitcoin’s turbulence, however, reflects dual pressures from geopolitical tensions and macro policy uncertainty—even with cooling inflation data, risk assets struggle to hold high ground amid geopolitical conflicts.
On one side is the certainty premium driven by AI industry transformation; on the other is the directional confusion amid geopolitical and macroeconomic struggles—this may well be the most authentic portrayal of today’s capital markets.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
#芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divides widen. Everyone, the latest inflation data is out, I'll be straightforward. This time, not only did CPI fall, but PPI also fell, and even initial jobless claims went up—a triple blow. One-sentence conclusion:
The probability of holding steady in September is more solid, but internal disputes within the Fed are fierce, so pricing will still fluctuate. Don't blindly rush at the sight of rate cuts. How much do you think a triple strike really is?
· July CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, all within expectations.
· In July, PPI fell year-on-year from 5.5% to 4.7%, and core PPI dropped from 4.7% to 4.2%, with both production and consumption confirming cooling.
· Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, higher than expected, indicating that employment is starting to cool at the margin. Looking at CPI alone, it's just that people are buying cheaper goods. Adding PPI and initial demand, both consumption and production sides are cool. Coupled with loosening of employment, what we previously bet on is now solidified. But the most critical conflict arose
The data is so dovey, yet the Fed is fighting on its own. Hamack said further increases are needed, Barkin said current rates are enough, and last month the FOMC even raised three objections to a 25 basis point hike. Chairman Washes also said that you can't declare the task complete just because the monthly data is good. Personally, I think the Fed is focusing on trends, not just this month. They fear three things: cooling of energyThe latest policy shift by the Russian central bank shows a significant turn, proposing to allow only BTC, ETH, and USDT to be traded unrestrictedly on exchanges. Among them, BTC and ETH achieve censorship resistance without backdoors or freezing at the protocol level through on-chain consensus mechanisms; meanwhile, USDT, which had previously been repeatedly warned by Russia and classified as a high-risk tool due to "blacklist and long-arm jurisdiction risks," has now been re-included in the permitted system.
This subtle change reflects an unspoken strategic tacit understanding between Tether and the Russian leadership: On the surface, Tether demonstrates compliance to the U.S. OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) by precisely freezing marginal addresses, maintaining its role as a "controlled issuer"; secretly, it selectively remains silent on the flow of underlying strategic funds in energy and military industries. By doing so, Tether avoids triggering comprehensive U.S. sanctions risk while naturally channeling dollar liquidity into the economic bloodstream of Russia.
At the same time, the U.S. side maintains a tacit "strategic tolerance." The previously severe financial blockade has forced Russia to accelerate the development of a ruble stablecoin and a decentralized clearing network. Completely cutting off the USDT channel would be tantamount to actively severing the throat reins controlling Russia's cross-border capital map. For the U.S., compared to pushing Russia into uncontrollable dark web and self-developed systems, causing it to fall into "asymmetric dependence" on USDT clearly holds more strategic value—maintaining deterrence through occasional freezes in normal times, while reserving the "ultimate circuit breaker" power to cut off liquidity at critical moments.
In essence, USDT has evolved into a "Trojan horse" in the U.S.-Russia financial shadow war, with the U.S. defecting, Russia compromising, and Tether seizing the opportunity to seek rent. #$Trump is simultaneously betting on AI, quantum, and crypto. What the U.S. is truly competing for may not be a specific coin, but the next generation of financial rules.
The Trump administration has recently been promoting AI innovation and security, updating quantum strategies, accelerating post-quantum cryptography migration, while continuing to push for the integration of digital assets with the traditional financial system.
Looking at these policies together, it becomes clear that the U.S. is not just competing to lead in AI models or to drive up the price of $BTC.
What it really wants to compete for is the standards of the next-generation digital economy.
AI determines who owns productivity and decision-making power; quantum technology determines who holds new computational and security advantages; blockchain and stablecoins determine through which systems these machines and institutions ultimately complete payments and asset settlements.
If future global AI services charge in dollar stablecoins, and Agents transact through wallets and payment rules provided by U.S. companies, even if the underlying blockchain is open, the dollar could still continue to expand its influence in the digital world.
This also explains why stablecoins may have a higher strategic value to the U.S. than most altcoins.
BTC offers a non-sovereign scarce asset, while dollar stablecoins provide a distribution channel for the dollar on-chain. Though they seem to compete, both can be utilized simultaneously by the U.S. financial system: allowing the market to hold BTC while on-chain transactions and AI payments continue to be denominated in dollars.
$ETH and $SOL compete for the underlying networks where these transactions occur.
ETH is better suited for institutional assets, complex contracts, and high-value settlements; SOL is better for high-frequency, small-value, consumer-facing payments. If the AI Agent economy scales, both may no longer serve only human traders but compete for hundreds of millions or billions of machine-generated payments.
But having transaction volume on a public chain does not equal having rule-making power.
Who issues stablecoins, what compliance requirements wallets follow, how AI Agents obtain identities, and who is responsible for erroneous payments—these issues may ultimately be decided by governments, banks, and large payment companies.
Therefore, a combination of “decentralized networks + dollar stablecoins + regulated entry points” may become a more realistic model than completely detaching from traditional finance.
Trump’s support for cryptocurrency does not necessarily weaken the dollar; it is more likely an attempt to make the dollar and U.S. companies the default entry points for on-chain finance and AI commerce.
$BTC competes for reserve asset status, $ETH and $SOL compete for settlement networks, and dollar stablecoins compete for pricing power.
The real big game has never been about how much a coin rises in a day, but about who can decide in what form money exists in the AI era and through whose channels it flows.📉 AI Infrastructure Earnings Relay: Explosive Growth, But Is the Market Returning? #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
Folks, AI infrastructure earnings are rolling in intensively this week, with data getting stronger and stronger, but guess what? The stock prices aren’t buying it. This is really interesting, so I’ll get straight to the point.
In one sentence:
Growth hasn’t been disproven, but the phase of blind growth is over. Now the market is testing who can turn revenue into profit and cash.
The most painful contradiction: growth is so strong, yet stock prices still fall
· Coherent’s revenue broke 2 billion, up 34% year-over-year, guidance exceeded expectations, yet it plunged after hours. The results are solid; the drop is because expectations were already priced in.
· Cisco’s Q4 revenue rose 18%, profit up 51%, pretty impressive, right? Full-year AI revenue guidance is 7.5 billion, which is quite a bit less than the 9.3 billion in orders, so the stock opened down 7%.
· Lumentum, our top performer, profit up 228%, cash flow turned positive, yet it still dropped 17% in July. Even the cleanest growth is being punished in valuation.
So the truth is, the market has shifted from focusing on growth rate to focusing on fault tolerance, profit, and cash flow. Previously, a revenue spike meant a stock rise; now exceeding expectations is just the baseline, not a reason to rally.
Capital expenditure is just a replay of the SpaceX template
We talked before about the SpaceX script: explosive top-line narrative but bottom-line cash flow criticized. Now, those renting computing power in AI infrastructure are exactly the same.
· CoreWeave’s revenue rose 112%, but it’s still losing money, with quarterly free cash flow negative 5.7 billion; for every dollar earned, it spends 2.5 building capacity.
· Nebius’s revenue soared 454% year-over-year, a scary number, but quarterly capital expenditure is 5.86 billion, free cash flow negative 3.5 billion; earnings don’t even cover a fraction of spending.
The story sounds great, but the money is really burning. Once financing tightens, companies with negative cash flow and huge spending will be the first to get cut.
Four updated exam papers, ranked
🔹 Optical communication, LITE and COHR, the most stable players, but with a P/E of 119 times, they’re also being punished; they’ve risen too much in the past year, trading is too crowded.
🔹 Computing cloud, CRWV and NBIS, mid-slope, steep hill, lowest fault tolerance; any slowdown in growth or cash flow pressure makes them the most fragile.
🔹 Equipment, AMAT, submits its report today; focus on two things: whether equipment demand truly continues and whether expansion spending can turn into profit. Its free cash flow just dropped from 1.06 billion to 210 million; don’t let this divergence widen.
🔹 Network, CSCO, the most stable but least flexible, full-year revenue up only 5%, hard to expect big gains here.
A straightforward message for fans on what to watch next
1 Profit margin and cash flow are ten times more important than revenue growth. For NBIS and CRWV, no matter how explosive revenue is, if cash flow doesn’t turn positive, the sword hangs overhead.
2 AMAT reports today; watch if free cash flow divergence widens.
3 Beware of good data causing price drops; earnings beating expectations but stock falling is solid proof of narrowing fault tolerance—don’t catch a falling knife.
4 Risks lie in generally expensive valuations, crowded trades, negative cash flow; once macro tightens, negative cash flow stories become hardest to justify.
In summary: Optical communication leads currently, computing cloud is still climbing the slope, equipment sets the tone today, network is stable but slow. The SpaceX template is replaying on the computing cloud chain. Don’t just watch if revenue explodes; focus more on free cash flow and capital expenditure ratio—this is the real watershed in this cycle. Bitcoin ETF net inflows exceed 10 billion, so why does the coin price still remain sideways? Revealing the hidden suppression of spot prices by CME futures-spot arbitrage
Every day when browsing crypto news, you often see big headlines about Bitcoin spot ETFs recording hundreds of millions of dollars in net inflows.
Many retail investors, seeing these dazzling inflow figures, must be puzzled. Since institutions are buying with real money every day, why is Bitcoin’s price stuck stubbornly in the $62,000 to $66,000 range, repeatedly grinding sideways, and even when it tries to spike, it is ruthlessly pushed back down?
Could it be that these daily reported ETF buying data are all fake?
The data are certainly not fake, but most people only see the surface phenomenon of spot inflows and overlook the hedging actions institutions take in the derivatives market. The vast majority of incremental institutional funds in today’s market buying Bitcoin ETFs are not simply bullish long positions but are running a very stable CME futures-spot arbitrage strategy.
This mechanism is known in institutional circles as Cash and Carry arbitrage.
Simply put, when CME Bitcoin futures prices have a premium due to market sentiment or high leverage contracts, hedge funds take a standard action. They buy Bitcoin ETFs in the spot market while simultaneously opening equivalent short contracts in the CME futures market. This way, they hold a delta-neutral, risk-free portfolio that locks in the basis spread profit between spot and futures.
A significant portion of the hundreds of millions of dollars in ETF net inflows dominating the news every day is actually an arbitrage combination of spot buying and futures shorting.
As this arbitrage buying floods into the spot market, an equal scale of futures short positions acts like a gravity shackle weighing down the market. This perfectly explains why spot data looks very strong, but Bitcoin’s price cannot rise because all the buying pressure in the spot market is instantly offset by the hedging short positions in derivatives.
For ordinary traders, understanding this microstructure is crucial.
If you blindly chase highs just by watching the media’s daily ETF inflow data, you can easily fall into a liquidity trap woven by institutions using hedged funds. Only when the CME futures basis narrows enough to lose arbitrage appeal, or when institutional funds start showing genuine unilateral net buying intentions in spot, can the market potentially break out into a truly explosive main upward wave.
Finally, a question for friends: Do you use daily ETF fund inflows as a basis for your trading decisions? After seeing the institutional futures-spot arbitrage cards, how long do you think the upcoming sideways market will last?
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 $BEAT Don't think that after dropping so much it can't fall further—on the contrary, BEATUSDT is still far from the real bottom.
From $11 to $0.89, has it hit the bottom?
Core contradiction: unlocking is a real supply shock, burning is a fake deflation
Supply side: nearly 70% of tokens are still locked, the bomb hasn't been fully defused
BEAT's total supply is 1 billion tokens, with about 310-330 million currently circulating. On August 1st, 21.25 million BEAT (worth about $67.8 million) were just unlocked, while the total tokens burned since the project's launch amount to only 17 million—one unlocking event exceeds the entire historical burn volume.
More importantly: nearly 70% of the supply remains locked. The current circulating supply is just the tip of the iceberg.
All moving averages act as resistance, the current structure clearly forms lower highs, resembling distribution plus panic selling rather than a healthy correction. The real bottom support may be around $0.75-$0.80; if broken, $0.60-$0.65 will quickly become the next target.
Panic trading, not real buying pressure
The so-called "rebound" after BEAT's recent drop looks more like a panicked reaction after a crash, not due to stable buying. Traders mostly bet on short-term volatility and rebounds, not because they truly believe the project will recover.
Don't be fooled by the illusion of "90% drop" to catch the bottom. Stories of dropping 90% and then another 90% are not uncommon in the crypto market. The story of AI infrastructure is transitioning from a "money-burning race" to "profit validation".
Over the past two years, the most debated question in the market has been: With such huge AI investments, is there any return? The recent round of earnings reports provides an increasingly clear answer — demand has not cooled down; rather, capital is shifting from merely discussing concepts to seeking companies that can truly convert computing power into revenue.
The most obvious change in this round is that different segments of the AI industry chain are simultaneously releasing performance signals.
AI cloud computing power providers like Nebius and CoreWeave are experiencing strong growth. Nebius's Q2 revenue surged year-over-year, and its adjusted EBITDA exceeded market expectations; CoreWeave's revenue continues to expand, proving that enterprise demand for GPU cloud computing resources remains robust.
At the same time, the "shovel sellers" behind AI infrastructure are also beginning to benefit.
Optical communication companies such as Lumentum and Coherent are becoming key parts of AI data center expansion. As individual AI clusters grow larger, traditional network connections can no longer meet the demand, increasing the importance of high-speed optical modules and optical communication equipment. Coherent has also stated that growth in data center and communication businesses is being driven by AI infrastructure expansion.
However, there is a notable change here.
AI infrastructure is no longer a simple logic of "buying equipment to make money." The market used to focus more on the scale of capital investment; now it is paying attention to whether the investment can generate cash flow afterward.
For example, although Nebius is growing at an astonishing rate, large-scale construction of AI computing platforms means huge capital expenditures; CoreWeave also faces financing costs and asset depreciation pressures. Behind rapid growth, profitability quality, customer contract cycles, and computing power utilization will become important metrics for the next stage of valuation.
I believe the AI industry has now entered its second phase.
The first phase was about seizing entry points — whoever owns GPUs, data centers, and power resources owns the story.
The second phase is about efficiency competition — whoever can provide stable computing power at lower costs and convert that computing power into long-term orders is the real winner.
In the coming years, AI will not belong only to model companies. The real big opportunities may be distributed across the entire infrastructure chain: chips, advanced packaging, optical communication, power supply, data center operations, and AI cloud services.
But risks are also emerging.
When all companies start talking about AI and capital floods into infrastructure, the industry will inevitably undergo selection. Expansion without order support will be eliminated; only companies with real demand and closed commercial loops will survive.
Therefore, the focus on AI going forward should not only be on whose story is the biggest but on whose revenue growth is the most genuine and whose investment can generate returns.
The AI wave has not ended; it has just entered a harsher phase: from imagination competition to execution competition.
$OKB $DOS $GRVT
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 $APR This cs whale always traps me deep and keeps me up all night. Every time the one I hold to the limit is this cs whale, $LAB $RIVER $RAVE are all controlled by the same whale. The picture shows the wallet-related addresses of this 🐶 thing In January 2025, Bitcoin broke through 109,588, signaling the end of the phase bull market, and then kept falling until it bottomed out in April.
During the same period, Ethereum dropped from 4,100 to a brutal 1,385.
Looking back now, one should have liquidated in time before January.
But in the real environment, selling is a very difficult event, even harder than bottom-fishing in a bear market.
Let's see what happened at that time.
Institutions unanimously expected $200,000: Bernstein, Standard Chartered, ARK, and Deutsche Bank almost simultaneously released reports setting a $200,000 Bitcoin target for 2025, citing triple drivers of pension inflows, deeper institutional allocation, and policy friendliness.
Trump’s policies had just begun: The market generally believed his inauguration was only the starting point, with a series of policy benefits to come, including stablecoin legislation, 401k pension market entry, and Bitcoin strategic reserves; the narrative was far from being realized.
ETF funds kept flowing in: In January, spot ETF net inflows totaled $5.3 billion, with BlackRock’s single product attracting $3.2 billion, showing continuous institutional buying.
The four-year cycle model said the top was still early: The halving was in April 2024, and historically the top occurs 12–18 months after halving, i.e., mid to late 2025. January was only the 9th month, so according to this model, it was not the top but mid-mountain.
These views were not fabricated after the fact; they were public information seen daily at the time. Being in that environment, one would naturally feel the bull market was still early, just mid-mountain, making it hard to proactively think the market was ending.
This is the first hurdle: The whole world was full of good news, no reason to sell.
More importantly, the mainstream interpretation of the January drop was "picking up passengers in reverse" and deleveraging to lighten the vehicle for an upward path.
Because each bull market’s main upward wave experiences two or three sideways consolidations, each consolidation is feared as a bear market start, but in reality, these are temporary adjustments. However, repeated occurrences cause a "wolf cry" effect, so when the real bear market drop comes, people mistake it for just a correction, forming a mental imprint.
This is the second hurdle: Ignoring risk, all declines are inherently recognized as shakeouts.
We all know the bear market drop before April 2025 was due to Trump’s tariff policies.
But at the start of 2025, almost no one considered tariffs as the core variable accelerating the bear market.
Only when the first large-scale implementation caused a crash in February 2025 did the market start to take it seriously; by April, global reciprocal tariffs were fully implemented, and Bitcoin bottomed out. During the same period, altcoins fell for a full four months, with declines up to 80%.
This is the third hurdle: You cannot know the real bear market major negative news during the bull market, but it will inevitably appear.
Therefore, trying to cash out timely during a bull market relying on so-called news and analysis is inherently very difficult. When it’s time to sell, the whole world is full of good news; when bad news really comes, the bear market is already halfway through, making selling even harder because people are loss-averse.
So don’t put too much energy into narratives and news.
What really matters is focusing on chip structure, which brings us back to our old view.
The fundamental reason the bull market ends is buy-side exhaustion.
The fundamental factor causing buy-side silence is "price consensus."
In 2025, Ethereum consolidated around 3,800; when it broke below that consolidation, most started to fear, but the next day it recovered and then surged without looking back, breaking through 4,700.
The critical moment came after that 3,800 consolidation ended, with continuous good news, especially Tom Lee repeatedly saying Ethereum would break 10,000 by year-end. Everyone knew he was exaggerating; most thought 6,000–8,000 was a reasonable target. Then a price anchor formed: Ethereum would reach 6,000. News spread, more people believed that price, more buyers appeared, and eventually buy-side exhaustion occurred, ending the bull market.
So, when a price consensus forms, it’s time to start reducing positions, selling more as prices rise, selling regularly, just like dollar-cost averaging but reversed into selling.
Because you hold a position, you are part of the market, and your thoughts represent the public’s thoughts, so you will have the same price anchor as the public. The difference is your action becomes selling, not continuing to believe like the public.
So I summarize the following detailed points:
1. Everyone firmly believes the bull market has arrived.
2. The public begins to reach consensus on a higher price anchor.
3. Declines are no longer feared, seen as mere corrections and deleveraging.
When these signals appear, ignore all good news, sell decisively, don’t fear selling early. Selling early means you still have rationality. The truly scary thing is the top; selling feels like betrayal, like being wrong, and you might even buy back, causing greater losses.
I believe in these words: "Selling too early always profits; escaping the top is a disaster."
Now the bear market has reached August; the bull market will definitely come. The purpose of writing this article is to prepare for the next bull market.
I hope to stay clear-headed at the end of the bull market and timely lock in profits.
In crypto, compounding comes from realization, not necessarily long-term holding. First of all: excitement is fine, but amnesia is not. Goldman Sachs acquiring NEOS can easily be packaged as "traditional capital eyeing ETH yields," but more distribution does not equal more profit.
As of the end of June on NEOS's official website, the NEHI distribution rate was 30.91%, while the 30-day SEC yield was only 2.65%; the recent distribution of about 95% is estimated to be a return of capital. This gap cannot be glossed over with a poster.
It relies on Ethereum ETP plus options for monthly distributions, which may give up room when prices rise. A single bullish candle like an elevator door opening does not mean it only goes up.
This matter is related to ETH but is not bullish. I will look at net asset value, distribution composition, and the gap relative to the Ethereum index; if these three charts don’t align, applause should be restrained.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and pay attention to risks. #$ETH APRUSDT Short-term Short Logic — High-level Pullback + Massive Unlock Pressure
1. Current Status
APR surged from $0.20 to $0.63 today before facing resistance and pulling back, currently consolidating in the $0.45-0.50 range. Gate current price $0.4898 (+135%), KuCoin current price $0.595 (+186%). 24-hour trading volume reached 2.8 billion, with a net capital inflow of over 30 million USD.
2. Core Short Logic
1. Technicals Fully Weakened
· 30-minute RSI once soared to 87.1, severely overbought
· 15-minute price level has dropped below MA60 ($0.48118), MACD just turned bearish crossover
· 4H MACD turning down: -0.01222, momentum continues to decline
· 5/15/30-minute levels show continuous net capital outflow, short-term funds starting to realize profits
· Volume significantly shrinks, sharply reduced compared to peak
· Technicals show potential double top pattern signal
2. On-chain Chip Loosening
On-chain wallets have intensively transferred out 9 million APR, showing clear signs of profit-taking.
3. Massive Unlock Time Bomb
On August 23, 30.9 million APR will be unlocked, accounting for 11.1% of circulating market cap. Historically, APR has dropped an average of 17.8% after each unlock; last November’s unlock caused a direct 55% drop. Another wave on October 23 will account for 30.1% of market cap.
Circulating supply is only 27.8%, very light float; once unlock selling pressure releases, the drop will be very severe.
3. Trading Plan Reference
Item Reference Value
Short Entry $0.455 - $0.460 (current consolidation range)
Stop Loss $0.470 (above consolidation high), if volume breaks above $0.48, short logic invalidates
First Target $0.430
Second Target $0.413 - $0.42
Extreme Target $0.3560
Key Observation Zone: $0.46-0.48 is the current battleground between bulls and bears — holding this zone may allow bulls to challenge $0.55 or even retest $0.63; losing it points to $0.42.
4. ⚠️ Risk Warning
1. Extremely volatile: today’s amplitude exceeds 180%, small-cap altcoins have limited liquidity, high slippage risk
2. Leverage recommendation: capped at 3x, 5x is risky, 10x on this coin will definitely blow up
3. Position control: altcoins should not exceed 1/5 of total position, single trade risk controlled within 1.5%
4. Do not hold losing positions: stop loss is mandatory, exit decisively if direction is wrong
Summary: $0.63 resistance pullback + momentum decline + double-cycle MACD bearish + 8/23 massive unlock = maintain short bias until support confirms stabilization. Personal judgment: expect $0.42 first, then talk about rebound.
---
DYOR, not investment advice, for reference only.Gold’s consolidation near $4,380 is less revealing than the breadth of the forecast range. An LBMA survey median around $4,500 keeps the year-end consensus constructive, but estimates from $3,879 to $5,100 show how sensitive the outlook remains to the macro mix. Cooler July CPI, central-bank buying and haven demand offer support; a firm dollar and elevated long-term Treasury yields provide a credible ceiling. My read: gold and BTC rising together would point more convincingly to improving liquidToday Bitcoin showed little movement, fluctuating between $63,300 and $64,000, with a slight downward trend. After the US CPI data was released, it was neither too bad nor very good; the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut or raise interest rates in the short term. Institutions are currently cautious, ETFs are still pulling money out, and many funds are moving to buy gold as a safe haven. The crypto market lacks the momentum to push upward.
Breaking through the $64,500 barrier is quite difficult, and $62,500 is an important support level. Everyone is waiting for news from the Jackson Hole meeting. Before new information comes out, the market will likely continue to fluctuate back and forth without a strong one-sided surge or drop.Brothers who missed out on $DOS are asking if they can bottom-fish it; my advice is not to:
1. Last time, the DOS project team added a counter pool operation, which trapped many Alpha players. Some friends, out of habit, only sold at 33u and left, later watching it rise to 100u and regretting it badly.
2. Today, the coin price has dropped back to 0.28. Some friends are reluctant to let go and want to bottom-fish for a swing trade. My advice is to avoid it; those with positions should clear out quickly.
3. First, the project no longer has positive catalysts. Most of the Korean exchanges have already listed it, and even if it gets listed on Binance Futures, it won’t be very useful.
4. Second, the project team no longer controls community airdrops, clearly not a pump-and-dump play, basically abandoned; importantly, the project team’s own buy-in cost was around 0.35u, so they have already profited and likely sold a lot at the high levels. There’s no benefit to pumping it up now.
5. At the current 0.28u price, the FDV is about $280 million. Annual revenue is only $6.8 million, so the valuation multiple is too high. New coin phase has heavy sentiment premium, but fundamentals can’t support it.#黄金维持高位，韩国央行重返市场
Really strong, gold has indeed surged this round. From $3942 at the end of July, it climbed all the way above $4400, rising nearly 10% in a single week, with an intraday high today reaching $4449.
The driving logic is also very clear. The unexpected negative nonfarm payrolls directly knocked down the expectation of a September rate hike, combined with rising expectations for the Strait of Hormuz reopening and falling oil prices, the macro interest rate logic took precedence. This is different from traditional safe-haven rallies—risk sentiment recovery actually suppressed gold prices; it is the expectation of liquidity easing driving valuation recovery.
Then another piece of news came out today. SEC filings show that the Bank of Korea held 679,765 shares of SPDR Gold Shares at the end of Q2, valued at about $250 million. This is the Bank of Korea’s first purchase of gold-related assets in 13 years.
What’s more worth pondering is the background. The Bank of Korea last bought physical gold in 2013 and hasn’t moved since; its holdings of 104.4 tons have dropped in global ranking from 32nd to 39th. Gold’s share in South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves is relatively low. This time, by allocating through ETFs, the risk exposure is established without directly increasing the administrative costs of physical reserves. An economist at Hanwha Investment & Securities put it bluntly—"From the perspective of aligning with global standards, there is still room for further purchases."
In recent months, South Korea has done quite a bit—jointly intervening in exchange rates with the US and Japan, restricting leveraged ETFs in the stock market, and now starting to buy gold. Operating simultaneously on exchange rates, stock market, and gold lines indicates that the alertness to systemic risks has been raised.
After gold prices surged rapidly, market sentiment has indeed gotten a bit heated. China Universal Gold LOF has already lowered the large subscription limit to 100 yuan. At the 4400 level, there are many short-term profit-taking positions. But the central bank’s gold-buying trend continues—global central banks’ net purchases in Q2 were 288.9 tons, a 411% quarter-on-quarter increase and 62% year-on-year increase.
Short-term risks of chasing highs are accumulating, but the mid-to-long-term allocation logic remains. If gold prices pull back to the 4200-4250 range, that might be a better entry point. UBS’s judgment is that holding above 4200-4250 confirms a short-term reversal, and after breaking through 4450-4500, the next target is 4650-4700. The direction is most likely upward, but missing a day or two is not a problem. Wait for the pullback, then buy again. $XAU Let me talk about something real: nowadays, it's hard to go far relying solely on candlestick charts when trading.
What truly influences the major crypto market movements is not the market itself, but three major macro variables: inflation, U.S. regulation, and the situation in the Middle East's Strait of Hormuz.
First is CPI inflation. With July data falling, the market has begun to imagine easing. But everyone must be clear: improving data does not mean immediate rate cuts. Without substantial liquidity easing, it is difficult to break out of a sustained bull market, so don't get blindly involved.
Next is U.S. regulation. The CLARITY Act has been postponed to vote in September, and before the rules are implemented, major institutions are reluctant to play freely, and regulatory pressure from the SEC continues.
The most important potential black swan: the situation in the Middle East. Once tensions arise in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices soar, inflation will rebound again, expectations for Federal Reserve easing will cool down, risk assets will collectively come under pressure, and all technical support will be meaningless.
Market sentiment can usually be sensed through several coins:
BTC is used to observe institutional movements, ETH for capital rotation, SOL for market heat, HYPE for short-term speculative funds, and OKB for defensive trading in volatile markets.
A reminder: future major trend turning points will come more from policies and geopolitical news, not from candlestick golden and death crosses. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another $COHR 这份FY2026 Q4财报，表面看是业绩和指引都超预期，真正值得看的则是AI数据中心光互连需求已经同时带动收入、利润率和下一季展望。但在股价提前大幅上涨后，市场对“超预期”的要求也明显更高了。 先看核心数据 截至2026年6月30日的FY2026 Q4，Coherent营收20.5亿美元，同比增长34%；调整后EPS为1.74美元，同比增长74%，高于市场预期。GAAP EPS为1.19美元，而上年同期为亏损0.83美元。单看利润表，这是一份增长和盈利能力同步改善的财报。 利润率改善比单纯收入增长更重要 本季度调整后毛利率为40.2%，同比提升2.15%；调整后经营利润4.46亿美元，同比增长62.1%，调整后经营利润率达到21.8%，同比提升3.81%。这说明收入增长并不是单纯依靠扩量换来的，产品结构和运营杠杆也在改善。对于光通信公司而言，毛利率能否稳定，是判断景气能否从订单热度走向盈利兑现的重要指标。 数据中心与通信仍是主线 数据中心与通信业务收入约16亿美元，占总营收接近80%，仍是这一季最主要的增长来源。AI集群持续扩张，带动高速光模块、光器件和数据中心互连需求上#芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%
Damn! Memory stocks are leading the Korean market rally this time, which is basically the same old cyclical script: when prices rise, it's all AI hype; when they fall, they turn back into ordinary memory trash.
Back in July, the KOSPI was smashed through the floor, with a monthly plunge hitting a new post-financial crisis record. On the surface, it looked like the AI bubble was bursting, but in reality, it was just domestic retail investors and speculators playing with leveraged ETFs wiping themselves out.
Once regulators tightened margin requirements, forced liquidations triggered a chain reaction, with circuit breakers tripping as frequently as meals, leaving devastation everywhere. Fundamentals? Demand for HBM, AI capital expenditures—none of that collapsed; it was purely a leverage meltdown.
Then, in about ten trading days, these players went crazy buying back. The KOSPI bounced more than twenty points from the low, stepping straight into technical bull market territory. Samsung and SK Hynix led the gains daily, jumping five or six points at a time, dragging a bunch of related electronics stocks up with them. After Micron and SanDisk, those American memory stocks, rallied overnight, Korea followed suit the next day.
Some so-called KOLs on X see it clearly: isn’t this just the crypto script? Leveraged up on the way up, leveraged down on the way down, and once regulation loosens, they come back to scoop up profits.
Some believe SK Hynix’s HBM is genuinely attractive, positioned as a core supplier to giants like Nvidia and Google, with volume and price growth logic still intact, and forward P/E ratios looking reasonable.
But note that foreign capital has withdrawn over $100 billion from Korean stocks this year; occasional buying doesn’t mean real inflows, the net for the year is still selling.
The essence hasn’t changed at all: AI capital spending is still pouring in, memory shortages—especially HBM supply lagging demand—make it hard for this chain to completely cool off. When GPUs finish, look to memory; when memory finishes, look to optical communications, power, data centers—capital just keeps rotating.
But such a sharp rise in a short time is heavily driven by sentiment and bottom-fishing funds. The wounds from previous leverage liquidations haven’t healed yet; this rally feels more like a rebound after overselling rather than the start of a healthy new bull market.
The real value isn’t this 22% gain, but whether it can hold. Whether foreign capital can keep coming in, whether Samsung and Hynix can continue delivering results, and whether shareholder return plans (buybacks plus dividends) will actually materialize—these are the keys.
If volume can’t keep up or there’s a sudden surge in volume with a sell-off at highs, this rally could quickly turn into a new batch of trapped positions.
For crypto folks, Korean retail investors have always been a main force in the crypto market. When their risk appetite returns, it’s not impossible for funds to spill over into AI concept coins; when chips are booming, AI coins can at least get a taste. But don’t expect this to be any kind of long-term trend confirmation.
Whether this money can really be made, or whether you should jump in, still depends on whether the companies can truly make profits.
First, watch whether the hot money coming in this time intends to hold long-term or just grab a quick profit and run, then decide whether to enter the market.When Bitcoin $BTC is falling.
The easiest psychological trap to fall into:
"If I sell now, won't I be at a loss?"
Actually, whether to sell or not
has nothing to do with how much was lost in the past.
The real question should be:
"If I didn't have this position now, would I still buy it?"
If not,
then it's worth re-evaluating.#CPI and PPI cool down simultaneously, interest rate hike divergence widens, OKB breaks through $100 again!
A splash of green amid a sea of red, why can $OKB rise against the trend when others are falling?
1. The key reason is: the overall market drop is a macro factor, because last night's CPI met expectations, so everyone is still worried about interest rate hikes, and the market decides to run first without positive news; but OKB is an ecosystem factor, following the independent trend of the OKX ecosystem.
2. Recently is the explosive period for the OKX ecosystem: TVL assets have reached $2.1 billion; xStocks weekly trading volume hit $447 million, accounting for 83%; Exchange OS opened permission for market creation; and it also announced a series of moves like RAW, DeFi, MEME, etc., to be introduced one after another starting mid-August.
From 80 to 100, it only took a week. Now is the time for everyone to hype the series of major moves in the OKX ecosystem.
3. I noticed OKX really likes to make moves in August. Last August, they strongly changed OKB's burn logic, pushing OKB from 47 to a peak of 258; I don't know what they will do this year, but it's worth looking forward to! #July CPI stabilizes, September interest rate hike expectations cool down Although BTC struggled around $64,000, the market was already devastated by the scene. On August 1 alone, short-term holders transferred over 32,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss, marking the largest single-day cut-off in nearly 30 days. Retail investors are cutting losses, exchange trading volume has dropped to a three-year low, the Panic and Greed Index is only 27, and market sentiment is extremely fearful. On the other hand, institutions and miners are also continuing to dump. Strategy sold another 1,690 BTC last week, cashing out $108.6 million, bringing its total sales this year to 6,948. The largest long positions, once "buy only, not sell," have now become a source of selling that cannot be ignored. Listed mining companies have sold a total of about 28,000 BTC this year, valued at $1.78 billion. MARA's reserves dropped 29% to 35,577 BTC. The average mining cost for miners has risen to $74,300, far above the current coin price, forcing them to sell off and becoming the only way to survive. On Trump's media side. A huge loss of $238 million in the second quarter, with over $190 million coming from unrealized losses on the books of BTC and Cronos. The company announced it would basically abandon the cryptocurrency sector, reducing its holdings by 65 BTC in the second quarter and shifting to the Truth API paid data business. Interestingly, once the news broke, it was met with widespread applause, with the market treating him as a cancer in the crypto world. A president's media company lost money on BTC and then announced its withdrawal, which dealt a heavy psychological blow to BTC's "national endorsement" narrative. Simply put, retail investors are harvesting, miners are selling, and strategies are being usedBitcoin $BTC is sometimes the best trade.
It doesn't even look like trading.
No chasing the highs.
No bottom fishing.
No frequent operations.
Just waiting for an opportunity you truly understand.
The market fluctuates every day.
But not every fluctuation.
Is worth involving your principal.🚀 HYPE/USDT (4H) – Top Gainer Rally Expansion
📊 Trade Setup Details
* Pair / Timeframe: HYPE / USDT (4-Hour)
* Bias: 🟢 LONG
* Entry Zone: 57.50 – 58.60
* Stop Loss (SL): 56.20
🎯 Take Profit Targets
* TP1: 61.80
* TP2: 65.50
* TP3: 70.50
💡 Why This Setup:
Leading market gainers (+4.10%) breaking higher to $58.359 with $18.99M turnover. High-volume momentum fuels the rally expansion.
⚠️ Disclaimer: NFA – Educational purposes only.
#Crypto #HYPE #Hyperliquid #Trading #OKX $xSNDK violently surges! Bullish volume expands on the market, storage sector short squeeze rally incoming
1. OKX Market Core Data
$SNDKUSDT current price 1412.39, 24-hour increase 3.67%, trading volume 1.395 billion USDT. On the 4-hour chart, all short-term moving averages 5/10/20 are firmly held, forming bullish support; MACD red bars continue to expand, DIF and DEA steadily rise, RSI6 reaches 80.24, approaching the overbought zone.
Volume shows an upward expansion characteristic, 4-hour trading volume 580 million, incremental funds continuously entering, 24-hour high-low range 1330.78-1420.71, bulls fully control the range.
2. Underlying Logic of the Rise
In the evening, US PPI and initial jobless claims both weakened, raising expectations for rate cuts. The US stock storage sector collectively short squeezed, driving linked tokens to rally. The storage industry inventory cycle has bottomed, fundamentals are improving, combined with capital clustering, leading to a sustained bullish trend.
3. Key Levels and Trading Ideas
Short-term resistance at 1420, intraday high resistance; multiple moving average supports in the 1360-1350 range, serving as a safe support zone for this bullish wave.
Current indicators are near overbought, do not chase highs; lightly position long orders on pullbacks to moving average support, stop loss below 1330. RSI at high levels carries risk of correction, quick in and out for short-term trades to avoid high-level volatile bull-bear traps. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
⚠️OKX market data review only, not investment adviceIn Bitcoin $BTC trading, there is one type of loss that is most worth being cautious about:
It's not about being wrong.
It's about clearly being wrong, yet continuing to persist because of "not wanting to give up."
The market does not reward stubbornness.
It only rewards correct decisions.
Admitting a mistake is not surrender.
It is regaining the right to choose.Anyone with some trading experience wouldn't short $ACU. Just look at the hype before the launch—the 5-minute chart surged nearly 30% straight up. Only real pros dare to short after a successful launch (there are coins with similar tactics that get dumped the next day on the daily chart). For these extreme coins, ordinary traders have only one approach: buy low during small divergences within the range-bound consolidation (on the 5-minute chart) with a very tight stop loss to avoid losses. When it goes up, you make a big profit. Shorting a strong coin against the trend is a major trading taboo. If this coin drops later, it will definitely be a "sharp spike up followed by a heavy dump." If it declines slowly or moves sideways, never short it—shorting then is a disaster. Only after a sharp spike and heavy dump does the real downtrend begin (the spike up doesn't necessarily break new highs). After the heavy dump, it will drift down steadily without exception. Even if it multiplies fivefold, it will follow this pattern.Elon Musk stated that AI revenue is expected to surpass SpaceX's other businesses by September this year, with plans to achieve 10GW of computing power by the end of next year, and even predicts that AI will contribute 99% of the company's value in five years.
This goal is very aggressive, but for now, it should be regarded more as a strategic blueprint rather than already realized performance.
SpaceX has previously disclosed large-scale AI infrastructure and space computing plans, while also acknowledging that the AI business requires continuous investment and still has a long way to go before stable profitability.
The biggest future potential for SpaceX may indeed come from AI, but the most important thing now is not how big the goal is, but whether revenue, computing power, and profits can be realized simultaneously.
If 10GW of computing power is truly achieved next year, the market will reprice SpaceX; but if capital expenditures keep increasing while AI revenue growth lags, then "AI accounting for 99% of value" could instead become a valuation pressure.
So, the three data points I most want to see are: AI revenue growth, computing power utilization, and AI business cash flow. Especially whether revenue can cover the continuously expanding infrastructure costs.
The truly interesting part about SpaceX is this: it has rockets, Starlink, computing power, and AI models, which in theory can be combined into a closed loop; but whether this closed loop can make money is the ultimate answer.
The story can first raise valuation, but only realization can sustain the valuation.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
$SPCX $XSPCX 🚨 Epic short squeeze in the US stock market, sentiment is spreading to the crypto market
Tonight, the US tech and storage sectors surged strongly, driven mainly by cooling employment and inflation data.
Initial jobless claims dropped to 209,000, core PPI monthly rate was only 0.2%, market expectations for a Fed rate cut this year have increased, US Treasury yields fell rapidly, supporting risk assets.
Previously, short positions in tech and storage sectors were high; after the data release, funds concentrated on covering shorts, triggering a positive feedback loop of "rise → short squeeze → continued rise." $SNDK and Micron led the rally.
The crypto market also showed layered transmission:
🔹 BTC, ETH: Supported by rate cut expectations, mainstream assets performed more steadily.
🔹 $xSNDK, $xSPCX: Followed the storage sector's strength but showed significantly increased short-term volatility.
🔹 Small-cap altcoins: More reliant on sentiment, lacking fundamental support, with higher risk of chasing highs.
However, this round of the market is more like a short squeeze plus improved macro expectations; whether it can turn into a sustained uptrend remains to be confirmed.
Next, focus on the Jackson Hole meeting and Powell's speech. If policy turns hawkish again, both US stocks and crypto markets could quickly pull back.
⚠️ For market review only, not investment advice. Financial market trading carries high risk; please make decisions cautiously.
#DailyOrbit 俄罗斯新规收紧散户加密交易，BTC、ETH与USDT获准先行 俄罗斯加密市场正在出现一条更窄、也更清晰的合规入口。 根据新规，非合格投资者完成风险测试后，只能通过受监管渠道购买三种资产：BTC、ETH和USDT。其他加密资产暂未进入首批名单。 这份白名单并非随手点名。入围标准包括平均市值、日均成交量，以及至少五年的境外报价历史。换句话说，监管关注的不是项目故事讲得多动听，而是资产是否具备一定的市场规模、交易深度和可追溯价格记录。 额度限制同样值得注意。普通投资者每年通过单一中介购买加密资产的上限为30万卢布。这里的关键在于“单一中介”：30万卢布并不是个人在所有平台之间共享的年度总额度。不同渠道之间如何衔接，仍需结合具体监管安排判断。 合格投资者在完成测试后不受金额限制。不过，加密货币仍不能用于俄罗斯境内商品和服务支付。交易渠道被纳入监管，并不意味着加密资产获得了支付工具的地位，这两件事不能混为一谈。 俄罗斯央行将自9月起限制散户加密交易。就市场结构而言，首批仅允许BTC、ETH和USDT进入受监管渠道，可能使新增合规资金更集中于头部资产：BTC和ETH承接风险资产需求，USDT则承担#CPI and PPI Cooling Down Together, Interest Rate Hike Disagreements Widen
CPI and PPI are both trending downward, with data increasingly supporting no rate hikes. How will the Federal Reserve ultimately decide?
🚨 CPI and PPI are cooling down together, yet the Fed is starting to argue.
The market is increasingly convinced that a rate hike in September is unnecessary, but the Fed itself seems to have not reached a consensus.
Let's look at the data first.
July PPI year-over-year dropped from 5.5% to 4.7%, core PPI fell from 4.7% to 4.2%, and the previously released CPI also continued to decline.
These data indicate one thing:
Both consumer and producer sides are cooling down, and the labor market is beginning to loosen.
So how much reason does the Fed still have to continue raising rates in September?
Now, market expectations for a September rate hike are cooling off.
Inflation is falling → the market is starting to bet on no rate hike, but the Fed is still divided internally.
As long as the Fed has not formed a unified judgment, rate expectations for September will continue to fluctuate.
And when rate expectations fluctuate, the first to be affected are: the US dollar, US Treasury yields, $XAU, and $BTC.
Especially BTC.
We now see CPI and PPI cooling simultaneously, which can be simply understood as: falling inflation = rising expectations for rate cuts = positive for BTC.
This logic is correct, but inflation cooling is only the first step.
The second step is whether the Fed believes inflation is truly continuing to cool.
The third step is whether the market starts trading the next round of easing.
So it’s still too early to simply interpret this as "rate cut trades have already started." This is also why gold, BTC, and US Treasuries may have recently experienced fluctuations.
The market has started betting in one direction, but the Fed has not yet finalized the answer.
Next, I suggest focusing on these three things:
① Whether core inflation can continue to decline
② Whether employment data will weaken further
③ Whether Fed officials’ statements will shift from "whether a rate hike is needed" to "when rate cuts can begin"
If the third really happens, it’s not just about no rate hike in September.
It means the market starts trading ahead, and the Fed’s tightening cycle may truly be nearing its end.
At that time, the capital game among the US dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and BTC may truly start to get interesting.
So the most important takeaway from this CPI+PPI is: inflation is loosening the Fed’s grip, but the Fed itself has not fully let go. #Lumentum revenue doubles, AI optical communication demand continues
The leader has something to say
Lumentum's revenue has doubled, and the prosperity of AI optical communication is still ongoing.
Q4 revenue was 1.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 109%, adjusted EPS of $3.23, both exceeding expectations. Next quarter guidance is 1.225 to 1.275 billion, continuing to rise. Management clearly stated the reason: AI and cloud data centers are driving demand for high-speed optical modules and lasers.
AI clusters are getting bigger and bigger, and the computing power bottleneck has spread from chips to interconnection links. Optical communication is a direct beneficiary of this round of infrastructure expansion, and Lumentum's order visibility is much clearer than before.
But the current market question is whether this demand will continue to grow or fluctuate cyclically. AI infrastructure spending has reached this scale, and if the rhythm of centralized procurement and capacity expansion is misaligned, cyclical characteristics will reappear.
Lumentum's financial report itself is not bad, but the overall fault tolerance of the AI infrastructure sector is narrowing. This is not a problem of one company, but a stage where the entire sector shifts from storytelling to looking at the books.
The logic of several positions in hand remains unchanged. The short position on Bitcoin at 64250 was halved at 63800, the remaining half is still held, with a target below 63500. The short position on SanDisk at 1377 stopped loss at 1420, target 1300 to 1320. SPCX light long position tested near 135, stop loss at 124, target 145 to 150. Altcoins remain unchanged.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, positions must have stop losses set, good luck. $BTC $ETH $OKB The next big market trend might not be called the “AI coin bull market,” but rather “Machines Start Spending”
A common feature of past AI concept market cycles is that token prices rise first, with real users and revenue following later.
As long as a project’s name includes AI, Agent, computing power, or data, the market is willing to assign value in advance. But in the next phase, if AI Agents truly enter commercial activities, funding choices could become completely different.
The market will no longer just ask, “Is this coin an AI concept?” but rather, “Why must AI use this?”
For an Agent to complete real economic tasks, it needs at least a few things: identity, wallet, payment method, budget authority, service verification, and dispute resolution.
The most direct need among these is payment.
When AI Agents buy data, rent GPUs, call models, and pay other Agents, they need a financial tool that can operate 24/7, support microtransactions, and be programmatically controlled. Stablecoins and smart contracts are naturally suited for these needs.
OpenAI explicitly mentioned in its introduction of EVMbench that Agent stablecoin payments are expected to grow; Visa has also incorporated AI Agent and stablecoin capabilities into the next generation of programmable commerce systems.
This brings different opportunities for $ETH, $SOL, and $BNB.
$ETH can support high-value contracts, institutional assets, and complex authorizations. A company might allow an Agent to procure services within a specific budget, with all permissions and settlement conditions executed via smart contracts.
$SOL is better suited for high-frequency, small-value transactions. If an Agent pays only a few cents per data call, fees and speed will directly determine whether a payment network can be used.
$BNB has platform entry points and a large existing user base, making it easier to integrate AI transactions, wallets, and digital asset services into one system.
As for $BTC, it may not be the best choice for Agents’ daily payments but could become a reserve asset on the balance sheets of Agents or enterprises. Stablecoins handle daily expenses, while BTC stores value that is not desired to be diluted by arbitrary issuance.
What really requires caution are various AI concept tokens.
If a token is neither a service credential that Agents must purchase nor able to earn network fees, computing power income, or data value, and merely relies on the narrative of “we serve AI,” then even increased Agent usage may not bring sustained demand for the token.
The future dividing line for AI projects may be very simple:
One type of project gives machines real economic capability, while the other only lets humans continue trading AI stories.
After machines start spending, the biggest beneficiaries may not be today’s top-performing AI coins but rather stablecoins, payment networks, public chains, and security infrastructure.
The AI bull market trades on human imagination about the future.
The machine payment era trades on every call, every settlement, and every automatically executed commercial action.
When AI moves from “being able to answer questions” to “being able to consume autonomously,” Crypto may for the first time find a new user base that is not here just to speculate on coins and whose numbers may far exceed humans.The United States is very unlikely to raise interest rates again this year,
but the Japanese yen is almost certain to continue raising rates.
Many newcomers still don't understand: why do interest rate hikes in the US and Japan directly affect global market trends? I'll explain it simply for beginners.
First, let's talk about the US dollar rate hike.
Once the Federal Reserve raises rates, market funds will immediately buy dollars and then US Treasuries, because the yields on US Treasuries are already very attractive:
3-month short-term Treasury bills: about 3.89%
1-year: about 4.03%
2-year: about 4.22%
5-year: about 4.39%
10-year (most watched by the market): 4.67%–4.70%
30-year ultra-long bonds: about 5.24%
For large funds, this is equivalent to a "very low risk, nearly 5% annualized" savings project.
The problem is: the scale of US debt is already too large, and the annual interest payments alone are a huge burden. Some say "just print money," but this idea doesn't work in reality—the interest compounds, and the fiscal burden will only grow heavier.
So if rates rise again, especially a one-time 75 basis point hike, the US fiscal situation might really not hold; a 25 basis point hike is barely manageable, but 75 basis points is close to a "default" edge.
Funds don't appear out of thin air. Money is pulled from the stock market to buy US Treasuries, resulting in increased selling pressure on US stocks, making a significant correction or even a crash more likely. Who would refuse a "quasi-risk-free" project with nearly 5% annualized return?
Now about the yen rate hike—this is like a direct "stab in the back" to the dollar.
Japan is one of the largest holders of US Treasuries globally. If the Bank of Japan continues to raise rates, the yen interest rate advantage will gradually shrink or even disappear. At that point, Japanese institutions and individuals are very likely to start large-scale selling of US Treasuries and repatriate funds.
Once US Treasuries are heavily sold, prices will fall and yields will be forced up, putting additional pressure on the US bond and stock markets. Meanwhile, a stronger yen will hit global "yen carry trades" (borrowing cheap yen to buy high-yield assets), causing funds to flow back into yen and further intensifying the sell-off of dollar assets.
A simple summary for beginners:
US rate hike → funds flow from stocks to US Treasuries → US stocks under pressure
Japan rate hike → yen appreciation + US Treasury sell-off + carry trade unwinding → dollar assets take another hit
The US is very likely to hold steady this year, giving the market some breathing room; but if Japan truly commits to raising rates, global capital flows will reshuffle, especially affecting US stocks, US Treasuries, and emerging markets, which may experience temporary volatility. Beginners just need to remember one sentence: interest rate differentials determine capital flows, and capital flows determine market rises and falls. $QQQ Why is SpaceX's stock price so high? A dual logic breakdown of valuation + narrative
Many people don't understand SpaceX's stock price; in fact, it is priced by two models together.
The first is the real valuation model, based on Starlink cash flow, rocket business, and ground AI computing power—this is the company's solid fundamental value.
The second is Elon Musk's exclusive narrative model, which includes Starship capacity, self-built photovoltaics, and space AI computing power as a long-term closed loop.
Big capital is divided into three camps:
A few top-tier institutions are willing to fully buy into the long-term story, giving a very high valuation premium;
Mainstream large institutions only recognize current certainties, giving a small premium;
Short sellers directly zero out the space narrative and only look at fundamentals.
Additionally, SpaceX's circulating shares are extremely scarce, so even a slight increase in faith can directly push the stock price higher.
Simply put: fundamentals lay the foundation, narrative determines the premium, and shareholding determines volatility. Market Analysis｜$SPCX valuation increased by $530 billion in 5 days, driven by three core narratives prompting value reassessment
📌 Core Market Overview: The recent strength in SPCX is not due to short-term aggressive capital inflows, but rather the market re-pricing three major long-term logics. The valuation increased by $530 billion within 5 days, as capital is redefining the company's long-term value boundaries. The bull-bear battle revolves around the ability to deliver in the long term.
1. Summary of Three Core Pricing Logics
1. AI Business Restructures Valuation Focus
Elon Musk's expectation: within 5 years, AI business will account for 99% of SpaceX's value, with AI revenue surpassing rocket business; Morgan Stanley estimates the AI business value at $319 billion by 2030. The market logic shifts from a space engineering company to an AI growth asset, which is the strongest long-term narrative in this round.
2. Starlink Supports Next-Generation Internet Bandwidth Demand
Plans to deploy 100,000 satellites aiming to carry 90% of global internet traffic; market consensus is that AI computing power expansion requires a 1000-fold bandwidth increase, and Starlink is a scarce supporting infrastructure, tied to AI's long-term expansion needs, unlocking a long-term ceiling.
3. Terafab Builds Domestic Wafer Fabrication Plant
Establishing US-based chip production capacity targeting 70% of TSMC's capacity, reducing external supply chain dependence; completing the computing power chip manufacturing link, forming an integrated narrative of "computing power - network - chip manufacturing."
2. Essence of Market Analysis
Market view emphasizes: this is not short-term hype but a capital re-recognition of SpaceX's long-term fundamentals.
However, it is necessary to distinguish: all are long-term expectations; short-term financial reports still show large losses and very high capital expenditures. Bulls are trading 5-10 year long-term growth call options; bears will continue to question: high R&D burn, long implementation cycles, difficulty in achieving goals, lock-up selling pressure, and other practical constraints. The grander the expectation, the greater the expectation gap and volatility.
3. Key Tracking Points and Trading Insights
1. Validation signals: focus on tracking AI order implementation, Starlink satellite launch pace, Terafab plant construction progress, avoiding relying solely on long-term story speculation;
2. Narrative market characteristics: grand long-term narratives tend to overextend valuations in phases, and after concentrated positive developments, profit-taking is very likely;
3. Risk control reminder: this asset is expectation-driven, contract leverage trading has very low tolerance for errors, do not blindly overweight bets on long-term stories. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
1. Real-time accurate data: July CPI year-on-year 3.4%, month-on-month 0.1%, core CPI year-on-year 2.5%; July PPI month-on-month flat, below expectations; CME shows a 32.4% probability of a rate hike in September, 2-year US Treasury yield at 4.168%, BTC current price 64080U, WTI crude oil at $81.85.
2. Core logic: Inflation slightly receding but not reaching the 2% target, Middle East geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices with rebound risks, Federal Reserve members' views divided, overall market cautious and volatile.
3. Personal view: Maintain light and cautious positions, wait for the September rate decision before increasing exposure, patiently await a long-term bull market recovery.
$BTC
$SNDK
This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice $SPCX
There is currently a significant divergence in SpaceX's price.
Compared to yesterday's peak, SpaceX has experienced a considerable drop, while there are no obvious macroeconomic negative factors. This decline can be seen as a digestion of the sharp rise over the past two days. Additionally, major institutions still assign a high valuation to SpaceX. Therefore, at the current price level, it is possible to cautiously try going long.
On the other hand, compared to the previous low, SpaceX has accumulated a substantial gain, and there is considerable pressure from profit-taking. Moreover, a new round of stock unlocking will occur on August 20, further increasing selling pressure. This round of unlocking is quite different from the first. The positive surprise from the earnings report has basically been digested, and the stock price is at a relatively high level. The probability of selling after the second round of stock unlocking is significantly higher.
In summary, SpaceX is bullish in the long term but bearish in the short term. I think chasing longs at the current price is not very appropriate. It is better to wait and see after the August 20 unlocking before establishing long positions. Of course, shorting now also carries considerable risk. So overall, a wait-and-see approach is recommended.
If SpaceX experiences a significant price pullback later, it will be a rare buying opportunity to increase position and join the table 😋 美国加密监管迎来关键转折：国会立法陷入停滞之际，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）转由行政分支单边推进规则制定。市场对年内监管明朗化的预期已大幅降温。 核心事件方面，被业内视为“数字资产市场结构基本法”的CLARITY法案（即《数字资产市场结构法案》）再度遭遇程序性挫折。该法案已在众议院获得通过，相关委员会亦已放行，但在参议院全体表决环节被确认推迟至9月15日继续审议，原定8月6日的表决节点已落空。预测市场Polymarket的数据显示，该法案于今年内获得通过的概率已从此前的82%骤然下滑至21%，显示市场对国会短期行动力的信心严重受挫。 与此同时，SEC选择绕开立法机构自行出手。新任主席Atkins于8月14日推动提出一项名为“Regulation Crypto”的规则制定提案，其核心思路在于将SEC的定位从“事后追责式执法”转向“事前规则引导”。若该提案落地，市场参与主体将能依据明确指引获取规则解释与豁免条款，而不再依赖法律团队的逐案揣测。 但市场不宜对短期利好抱有过高期待。8月14日的议程仅涉及“是否发布该提案以征求意见”的程序性决定，即便一切顺利，规则正式生效的时间节点最早也要等到2If Satoshi Nakamoto's address makes a withdrawal
What kind of scene would that be?
Genesis block:
1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa
Crack it to get infinite treasure🏴☠️#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #沉睡比特币案迎行业机构介入 $BTC $APR short grid entry price raised from 0.8 to 0.95 — core logic
1. Avoid premature short positions and floating losses; zero loss if entry is not triggered
Raising the trigger price to 0.95 includes a crucial bottom-line logic: as long as the coin price never reaches 0.95, the grid strategy will not place any short orders throughout, the account will have no positions, no floating losses will occur, and the principal remains completely intact. At worst, this means missing this shorting opportunity and simply abandoning this layout, with no loss of principal whatsoever.
If entry is made at the original 0.8 as planned, and the coin price rises all the way to 0.95 or 1.2, the 3x leveraged short positions will suffer large floating losses, margin will be pressured, and the account will bear paper losses unnecessarily.
2. 0.95 is the true peak of bullish sentiment bubble, offering much better cost-effectiveness than 0.8
1. This round of $APR rally is purely driven by speculative sentiment, with long positions concentrated between 0.4-0.6. The 0.8 level is only a weak resistance midway; bulls at low levels still have strong motivation to add positions, making a direct breakout likely. 0.95 far exceeds the coin’s long-term reasonable range of 0.15-0.6, where most low-level long holders have doubled their positions, leading to concentrated profit-taking pressure.
2. Technically, 0.75-0.8 no longer provides strong resistance. 0.95 is close to the grid upper limit of 1.2, with only a small upward space remaining. Even if it spikes to 1.2, floating losses are strictly limited, fitting well with 3x leverage risk control.
3. Grid range 0.56-1.2 perfectly suits 0.95 entry, maximizing profits from the downtrend
The overall grid range lower bound is 0.56 and upper bound is 1.2, aiming to capture the full downtrend after the bubble bursts:
1. Entry triggers at 0.95, with only the 0.95~1.2 range posing upward risk, resulting in very low capital occupation; the subsequent downtrend from 0.95 down to 0.56 can be repeatedly arbitraged by the grid.
2. If the grid starts prematurely at 0.8, short positions will be held continuously from 0.8 to 1.2, enduring floating losses and occupying a large amount of capital, significantly reducing the strategy’s fault tolerance.
4. Core risk control: better to miss the opportunity than to enter early and lose principal
The first rule of trading is always to protect the principal. Raising the trigger price to 0.95 is an extremely conservative risk control choice:
Worst case: the coin price never reaches 0.95, the grid does not start, no positions and no losses occur, only the shorting opportunity is missed;
Best case: price spikes to 0.95 triggering the strategy, at which point bullish momentum is exhausted, ample room for subsequent decline exists, enabling a high risk-reward short position that is safe and profitable. Federal Reserve internal division, but the market is not buying it — BTC and ETH are being "pressed and rubbed within the range."
First, let's look at the current crypto market situation (as of August 13):
· Bitcoin: around 63,800, daily/weekly/monthly trends all turned negative, down 6.5% from a month ago
· Ethereum: around 1,890, similarly weak and volatile
· Market sentiment: Fear/Greed Index 29–36, in the "fear" zone
· Overall pattern: BTC has been consolidating sideways in the 63,000–65,000 USD range for over a week, stuck in a dilemma.
The real impact of the Fed's "hawk-dove internal conflict" on the market:
1. Cooling rate hike expectations act as an "emotional painkiller," but not a "reversal injection"
After July CPI met expectations, the probability of a September rate hike indeed dropped, US Treasury yields and the dollar weakened, giving risk assets a temporary breather. BTC and ETH did receive a short-term "liquidity sentiment dividend."
But the problem is: 3.4% inflation is still far from the 2% target, and energy and tariff pressures remain. The market pricing now only reflects a "higher probability of no rate hike in September," far from a "rate cut scenario." So BTC and ETH just caught their breath within the range, without breaking out.
2. The biggest bearish factor is still unresolved: Powell hasn’t spoken yet!!!
This week, the crypto market should focus not on candlesticks but on every move of the Fed. Crypto assets, as high-risk instruments, are extremely sensitive to liquidity expectations. The real test lies ahead — the Jackson Hole symposium (official statements) and August CPI data. If inflation rises again, rate hike expectations will immediately return.
3. Current market: selling pressure above, support below, stuck in the middle
Above BTC, 64,100–65,000 USD is a dense on-chain cost zone, about 1.79 million BTC concentrated here, so rebounds face selling pressure from investors unlocking positions. Below, 63,280–62,750 USD is the first support, with ETF net inflows of about $865 million over 5 consecutive days providing a floor. Thus, the price is trapped in the middle, stuck in a dilemma.
ETH is similarly awkward: staking ratio rose to 34.4%, ETF fund inflows provide mid-term support, but the 1-hour chart shows a clear bearish pattern, so rebounds face selling pressure. Key support to watch below is 1,850–1,800 USD.
In summary, the impact on both:
Short term: Cooling rate hike expectations provide some breathing room, but only enough to "breathe," not to "charge." BTC/ETH continue to digest news within the range; a one-sided trend is not yet due.
Mid term: The real directional choice depends on the Fed’s policy path becoming clear — whether it’s a "true pause" or "slow hikes," which will determine if this consolidation is a bottom accumulation or a downward continuation.
$BTC $ETH Many people wonder how much big capital is actually backing Elon Musk's visionary projects like the solar factory and space AI computing power?
In fact, the capital market is divided into two camps.
The first camp fully believes in the entire closed-loop logic, including Starship, Starlink, self-built solar power, and space AI. Representatives are Baron, a16z, Ark Fund, and Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, all of whom are the earliest and most steadfast long-term bulls.
The second camp consists of the largest giant capital players like Google, Fidelity, Sequoia, and Baillie Gifford. They only invest in proven, revenue-generating certainty, namely Starlink and rocket launches.
For long-term stories like space computing power and solar factories, they only assign very low option valuations and do not take heavy speculative positions.
Simply put: top-tier, focused venture capital trusts his future, while trillion-level big capital only trusts his present. The market is not rewarding the softer-rate narrative yet. BTC at $63,589.8 is down less than ETH, while SOL is also weaker, which points to selective defense rather than a broad return of risk appetite.
With CPI easing expectations competing against AI infrastructure earnings and a chip-led rebound, liquidity is being pulled across narratives. My read is that BTC remains the cleaner relative-strength trade, but the wider crypto market still lacks confirmation.
Not advice, just analysis.The most dangerous signal for BTC right now is not a drop.
But rather:
More and more people are getting used to sideways trading.
Recently, BTC has been fluctuating above $60,000.
Many people were anxious at first:
"Is it going to drop?"
Later it became:
"When will it break out?"
And then:
"Seems like there’s no opportunity anymore."
But the market is most prone to change when no one has patience.
The contradictions in BTC right now are quite clear.
The bulls are supported by ETF funds, institutional allocations, and expectations of rate cuts.
The bears seize on:
High interest rate environment;
Insufficient USD liquidity;
Overvaluation of risk assets.
So neither side has enough strength to end the battle directly.
But I think what’s truly worth paying attention to now isn’t whether BTC rises or falls by 1% today.
It’s:
Who is taking the baton.
In past cycles, the main driving forces behind BTC’s rise came from retail investors, institutions, and miner cycles.
But this round is clearly different.
ETFs have brought traditional capital into the market.
Public companies like MicroStrategy have made BTC part of their balance sheets.
Even some countries and enterprises have started discussing BTC reserves.
The change this brings is:
BTC is increasingly unlike the purely sentiment-driven asset it used to be.
But problems arise as well.
As more capital holds BTC through ETFs and public companies, the market becomes more dependent on the macro environment.
US Treasury yields rise.
The dollar strengthens.
Risk assets come under pressure.
BTC is affected as well.
So when looking at BTC now, you can’t just look at on-chain data.
You have to look at three things:
First, whether ETF funds continue to flow in.
Second, whether risk appetite for US tech stocks declines.
Third, whether the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen again.
If all three improve simultaneously, a BTC breakout may just be a matter of time.
But if liquidity tightens again, BTC may continue to experience a prolonged sideways phase.
Many people like to ask:
"Can BTC still rise to $100,000?"
But the real question in trading should be:
"Before the rise, how many impatient people will the market wash out?"
Because historically, before every major rally starts, it never makes the majority comfortable.
BTC now feels more like it’s waiting for a catalyst.
The direction may not be hard to judge.
What’s hard is: $BTC
Do you have enough patience to wait for it to appear.
For personal market observation only, not investment advice, DYOR.$ETH is indeed a long-term positive, and compared to $BTC, it can generate profits through staking, which makes it more favored by institutions. However, the current issue is that the staking rate of ETH is too high, around 38%. This is a good thing because it can drive the value of ETH, but the downside is that the more ETH is staked, the scarcer its liquidity becomes. This will lead to sharp price surges and drops, causing high volatility.
The current narrative for BTC is that it serves as an anti-inflation payment method. For example, Russia's previously passed legislation allows compliant transactions using btc.eth.usdt. Although it cannot be used for domestic payment exchanges of goods, it can be used for trading with Iran or third-world countries (especially those with significant currency depreciation) through compliant transactions.Tonight's PPI data continued the slowdown trend of last night's CPI, reducing rate hike expectations, so the US stock market rebounded.
The most watched storage trio, MRVL, AAOI, PLTR, the small rocket RKLB, crypto circle's CRCL/MSTR, cloud giants Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, META all performed well.
SPCX, which surged sharply yesterday, started to detach from the main group and retrace, currently holding around 142; as long as it doesn't break 139, the uptrend remains.
From a macro perspective, the next major market-impacting events should be the 8.26 PCE data and the 8.27-8.29 Jackson Hole meeting.
And in the gap between these two weeks, there is the 8.20 SPCX unlock, so a rise followed by a preemptive drop seems reasonable. $SPCX #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% July PPI overall was lower than expected, U.S. Treasury yields collectively plummeted, and the pre-market surge in U.S. stocks indicates that short-term pressure is easing.
This time, the production-side data is quite strong, with the core monthly rate stable at 0.2%. Combined with last night's inflation data, it means inflation pressure on both businesses and consumers is simultaneously cooling down.
From the market perspective, short-, medium-, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields all plunged, with the 1-year yield dropping 0.75%, and U.S. stocks soaring throughout the pre-market. The breathing room for capital has expanded, and the suffocating feeling caused by high interest rates has eased considerably.
But don't rush to pop the champagne yet. Although the swap rate shows the probability of a September rate hike has fallen to 32.1%, as long as it hasn't dropped into the 30% safety zone, the alarm cannot be considered fully lifted.
In the second half of tonight's U.S. stock session, we still need to be wary of capital suddenly retreating again like it did early yesterday morning and resuming concerns about inflation.
Next, it depends on whether tomorrow's retail data continues to weaken. Only when the rate hike probability is thoroughly crushed below 30%, or even 25%, will big money dare to confidently enter the market for a wild celebration.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大