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NEW: $96B Shinhan Asset Management signed an MOU with Plume to test a KRW-denominated tokenized fund, benchmarking BlackRock’s BUIDL model.
$PLUME South Korean stocks surged 22% in ten days—Is this an oversold rebound or a new main uptrend?
The South Korean KOSPI index violently rebounded over 22% in just ten days from the sharp low at the end of July, directly stepping back into the technical bull market zone. Semiconductor giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the rally.
Many have been discussing whether this fierce rally is a valuation recovery after arbitrage funds mistakenly sold off earlier, or the true starting point of a new AI chip main uptrend?
Honestly, the speed of this rebound is superficially due to the recovery of overseas capital expenditure expectations, but fundamentally it is a combined resonance of hedge funds closing arbitrage positions across regions and retail short-sellers being caught in a stampede.
If you ask me whether chip stocks still have room to grow, my answer is yes, but the differentiation will be extremely severe. The phase of blindly buying the entire semiconductor index to win has passed.
In the upcoming evolution of the AI industry chain, if you want to allocate limited resources to the most explosive sub-sectors, my personal ranking is that optical communication and integrated storage-computing are greater priorities than general chip manufacturing.
Why choose this way?
Because in chip manufacturing, capital expenditure on advanced processes and depreciation of lithography equipment are approaching physical limits. Although foundries can make money, their gross margins are easily squeezed by upstream equipment suppliers and downstream design giants.
Inside data centers, when tens of thousands of GPU clusters train collaboratively, the biggest physical bottleneck is no longer how fast a single chip’s computing power is, but the data transmission latency and power consumption walls between chips and between racks. This is why high-speed optical modules, silicon photonics technology, and HBM high-bandwidth memory have become core assets fiercely competed for by major companies.
If you ask me whether to prioritize leading US AI stocks or Korean semiconductor stocks, I personally still place the foundation on the US stock ecosystem leaders and treat Korean chip leaders as tactical allocations with high beta elasticity.
US leaders control the top-level software ecosystem, chip architecture standards, and global major client stickiness, with an unfathomably deep moat. Korean semiconductor giants have extreme manufacturing barriers and flexibility in HBM and advanced process memory. The combination balances defense and offense.
Markets are always born in despair and move forward amid divergence. Holding core infrastructure is far more important than chasing short-term index fluctuations.
---
💬 Here’s a thought question for those following the tech sector on screen: In this long-term layout of the AI industry chain, do you currently favor US compute leaders, Korean memory giants, or the optical communication direction represented by optical modules? Share your holding ideas in the comments.
The above content only represents personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨 The most noteworthy thing about BTC these past two days isn't that it fell back to $62,000, but that despite positive news, it still hasn't really risen.
The latest US inflation data isn't actually bad; both PPI and employment data are moving in a dovish direction. Historically, such an environment usually leads the market to reprice easing expectations, which should be a tailwind for high-liquidity risk assets like $BTC. But now BTC is still hovering around $63,000, even dropping briefly near $62,000. The macro environment hasn't worsened, yet the price isn't reacting. This kind of "positive news desensitization" I find more worrisome than a simple sharp drop.
The problem might lie with the capital.
BTC's recent strength was largely supported by ETFs and institutional buying, but recently ETF funds have become noticeably volatile, flowing in and out over a few days, no longer showing the steady accumulation seen at the start of the month. Institutions haven't fully withdrawn; they've just shifted from "continuous buying" to "trading based on price." For an asset the size of BTC, this difference is significant. Continuous buying can gradually absorb overhead supply, while buying one day and selling the next only creates volatility.
This also explains why ETH, SOL, and even DOGE occasionally rebound, but $BTC struggles to truly lead the market upward. Native crypto capital is still searching for high elasticity opportunities, but the big money capable of pushing BTC from $63,000 to the next price level hasn't noticeably accelerated. This creates an awkward situation: bad news isn't as frequent as before, good news isn't absent, yet the market is unwilling to chase.
The biggest pitfall in this kind of market is automatically interpreting "not falling" as "about to rise."
What BTC truly lacks now isn't a new narrative, but money willing to keep accumulating above $64,000. Macro data can provide a buying rationale, but $ETH, spot volume, and a genuine breakout are needed to prove whether that money has actually entered. If data continues to lean dovish and BTC repeatedly fails to break above $64,000, it indicates that internal selling pressure might be heavier than we think.
Conversely, if one day a similar level of positive news emerges and BTC suddenly rallies with volume to reclaim $64,000 or higher, that would show selling pressure is truly being absorbed.
So now when I look at $BTC, I’m less interested in guessing whether a particular candlestick is the bottom.
I’m more interested in when it will relearn to "react to positive news."
The most comfortable state for a strong asset is that bad news doesn’t cause it to fall, and good news immediately pushes it up.
BTC has only completed the first half of that.
If the second half is delayed, then this sideways range between $62,000 and $64,000 might not just be a consolidation but also a waiting period for the next batch of capital to decide whether to continue buying.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #SOL #DOGE #ETF #Crypto #比特币 #欧易星球1inch recently launched Aqua.
What’s most noteworthy is not just another liquidity protocol, but a change in how DeFi uses capital.
Traditional market making requires depositing assets into separate pools.
If you put money into ETH/USDC, it can’t simultaneously serve other trading pairs. Although there appear to be many pools, the truly active capital is limited, with a large amount of liquidity remaining idle for long periods.
Aqua’s approach is:
Assets remain in the user’s wallet, and the same balance can support multiple liquidity strategies simultaneously; tokens are only called upon when an order is actually executed.
Simply put:
Previously, you deposited money into the protocol and then waited for trades.
Now, you authorize the protocol to use your funds, and settlement only happens when trades occur.
This could be a significant change for DeFi.
Because the next phase of competition isn’t just about which protocol can attract more TVL, but who can enable the same dollar to complete more trades while reducing capital lock-up and liquidity fragmentation.
But “assets staying in the wallet” doesn’t mean there’s no risk.
Whether the authorization scope is secure, whether multiple strategies overuse the same balance, and whether smart contracts and pricing logic are reliable will all become new attack surfaces.
While capital efficiency improves, system complexity also increases.
Therefore, I prefer to see Aqua as a direction rather than a completed answer:
DeFi is evolving from “handing assets over to protocols” to gradually “allowing protocols to call assets according to rules.” ETF continues to bleed, this BTC drop is not a simple shakeout
On August 13, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $131.1 million, following an outflow of $61.1 million on August 12, totaling approximately $192.2 million over two consecutive days. Among them, FBTC and ARKB experienced outflows of $55.1 million and $58.8 million respectively. BTC fell below $63,000, giving back last week's gains and hitting the lowest point since August 3.
My judgment is that although macro data is favorable to US stocks, it failed to drive BTC. Coupled with ETF funds shifting from inflows to continuous redemptions, this indicates that incremental buying is retreating. What needs more caution is that when BTC price is falling, the futures open interest actually increased by more than 3%. If new positions continue to accumulate, the short-term may not see a quick rebound but rather a liquidation between longs and shorts first.
Next, watch whether ETF funds can return to net inflows on August 14; whether BTC can regain and hold above $63,000; whether open interest and funding rates continue to diverge; and whether BTC can end its underperformance against the Nasdaq after the US stock market opens. Elon Musk Premium Zeroing In Progress: DOGE Is Losing Its "Godfather"
As of August 14, 2026, Musk hasn't mentioned DOGE on X for over two months. The last time was June 2, when someone dug up his 2022 old post "If McDonald's accepts Dogecoin, I'll livestream eating a Happy Meal," to which he replied "That's right"—the market's reaction was: no reaction. On that day, DOGE was worth only $0.0993; today, August 14, DOGE is hovering around $ will depend on the overall market beta and real $DOGE $SPElon Musk Premium Zeroing In Progress: DOGE Is Losing Its "Godfather" As of August 14, 2026, Musk hasn't mentioned DOGE on X for over two months. The last time was June 2, when someone dug up his 2022 old post "If McDonald's accepts Dogecoin, I'll livestream eating a Happy Meal," to which he replied "That's right"—the market's reaction was: no reaction. On that day, DOGE was worth only $0.0993; today, August 14, DOGE is hovering around $0.0696-$0.070, closing at $0.0697 on August 12, with a mark$BTC SNDK has completely broken free from previous resistance today, with a considerable rebound and full release of upward momentum.
Looking back at the trend after this earnings report, it indeed left many people puzzled. Quarterly revenue reached $8.97 billion, a month-over-month surge of over 50%, with a rare high gross margin of 84.6%, and the data center business doubled—these figures are impressive and flawless, yet the stock price reversed downward, being suppressed for several consecutive trading days.
The market's doubts at the time were quite straightforward: the fundamentals clearly scored full marks, so what was the hesitation about?
Breaking down the sentiment, the core issue was not whether the current profits were good, but whether such profits could be sustained. The storage sector has cycles ingrained in its DNA. In the upcycle, price hikes drive profits to surge, and market optimism ignites instantly; in the downcycle, capacity is released en masse, supply-demand balance flips instantly, and profits fall faster than expected. This rollercoaster volatility is the fundamental reason storage assets have been consistently undervalued.
What truly changed the game at this investor day was not the AI buzzword statements, but the company's direct response to the most sensitive nerve—SanDisk is actively breaking free from the cycle shackles.
The concrete measures are on the table: long-term supply agreements signed with 8 core customers, covering solid dimensions, locking in about half of shipments for fiscal 2027, and further rising to two-thirds in fiscal 2028. The intent of this long-term contract mechanism is very clear—locking volume and price to smooth out profit fluctuations caused by industry price swings, completely ending the past extreme cycle of "profiting one year, losing the next."
Management also provided a clear outline for fiscal 2028-2030: non-GAAP gross margin anchored around 80%, adjusted free cash flow rate maintained around 50%. More weighty is the dividend commitment—after completing necessary capital expenditures and capacity layout, all remaining cash flow will be fully returned to shareholders. This signal's appeal to long-term capital cannot be underestimated.
This is what gave today's capital the confidence to decisively get on board.
In the past, the market viewed SNDK with a single label that required almost no thought—NAND price hike play, ride the cycle up, exit decisively when the cycle ends. Now, the narrative framework is being rewritten: the company is no longer just a storage chip supplier following the market, but a key player in the AI infrastructure landscape, responsible for data retention.
Of course, optimism is warranted, but it should not be excessive.
Mid-to-long-term goals are still in the blueprint stage, with dense upcoming validation points: the actual execution pace of long-term contracts, the resilience of gross margin when NAND prices fall, and whether cash flow targets can be met on schedule—each checkpoint requires subsequent earnings reports to pass through.
But an undeniable fact is that SanDisk's underlying logic has undergone substantial iteration.
It remains in the storage sector, but growth drivers no longer rely solely on industry beta. The data flood brought by the AI wave is building a buffer layer for this company to resist cycles.
Computing power determines how fast AI can compute, while storage determines how much AI can remember. The market has long hailed computing power as the star, leaving storage sidelined for too long. Now, that long-underestimated corner is stepping onto the starting line for revaluation. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 Tonight's storage sector is expected to have another show.
SanDisk surged 13.7% right at yesterday's close, and was up over 6% in pre-market.
Micron rose 4.2% yesterday and also followed with gains pre-market.
This time SanDisk isn't just relying on the phrase "AI is hot" to hold up.
At the investor day, they presented growth targets through 2030, 80% gross margin, and long-term contracts.
The market is now willing to give it a high premium,
betting that this storage cycle is not just a rebound in demand, but that AI has extended the shortage cycle.
It's easy to understand why Micron is moving along.
SanDisk focuses on NAND and enterprise flash, Micron deals with DRAM and HBM, but the underlying logic is the same: cloud providers are still investing heavily, and storage is still insufficient.
But these valuations are really high.
If SanDisk continues to surge tonight, Micron will likely follow;
if SanDisk opens high but falls, Micron can't pretend nothing's happening either.
The half hour before market open is the most critical.
Investing involves risks; please be cautious when entering the market Last night and today, Western Digital's intraday high in the US stock market surged 17%, closing with a strong gain of 13.67%, driving a collective rebound in memory stocks such as SK Hynix and Micron, with many short positions directly trapped.
Reasons for the rise
1. Investors released a major long-term plan
They set a mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth target for 2028-2030, with a long-term gross margin of 80% and free cash flow profit margin of 50%; after capacity construction is completed, all cash flow will be used for buybacks and dividends; optimistic about AI inference driving an explosion in flash memory demand, and HBF technology opening growth potential.
2. Oversold conditions combined with macro positive factors
Previously, the market worried that the memory cycle had peaked, causing stock prices to continuously fall and accumulate many short positions. Once the positive news came out, shorts concentrated on covering, pushing up the stock price. US inflation data cooled down, market expectations for reduced Federal Reserve rate hike pressure increased, capital flowed back into AI hardware; the logic of long-term supply agreements regained investor recognition, weakening the cyclical nature of the industry.
Main risks
This is a pulse rally triggered by an event, with many short-term profit-taking positions, causing huge volatility and easy pullbacks after surges; the positive factors are a 3-year outlook, and short-term quarterly performance has not been upgraded. The memory sector is still affected by Federal Reserve policies and US Treasury yields, and hawkish news will quickly suppress the market.
Key points to watch going forward
① Whether the current rebound high can be maintained; falling back to the starting point would indicate a short-term pulse rally
② Whether SK Hynix and Micron can continue to strengthen synchronously; a rally driven only by Western Digital lacks sustainability
③ The Federal Reserve speech at the Jackson Hole meeting will determine the overall direction of tech stocks.I was looking at how the Dusk consensus process actually flows, and the most interesting part wasn’t the reward distribution — it was the waiting.
A generator can have a block ready, but that doesn’t mean much until validation and ratification catch up. That small gap reveals more about the system than the reward percentages ever could.
A provisioner isn’t valuable simply because it has DUSK staked.
Its real value comes from being online, synchronized, selected, and ready to perform the next task when the network needs it.
If an operator misses that window, the capital may still be staked, but the network isn’t getting the security contribution it was supposed to provide.
That changes how I view the incentive structure.
More stake may increase the probability of participating, but it can’t compensate for poor infrastructure or unreliable operations.
And by separating proposal from acceptance, Dusk gives different operators different responsibilities instead of allowing one role to control the entire path to finality.
What I’m still watching is what happens as participation scales.
More provisioners sounds stronger on paper, but more participants also mean more coordination, more varied infrastructure, and more opportunities to optimize around the reward mechanism rather than the actual job.
That’s the part I find most interesting:
As network activity increases, will operators remain genuinely responsive because the incentives work — or will some eventually find cheaper ways to appear responsive?
That’s where the real strength of the design will be tested.
$DUCK
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 Why is SanDisk so strong tonight? I think the market is finally starting to change its algorithm.
SanDisk has really been strong these past two days.
After the investor day yesterday, it surged directly, and before the market opened today, it continued to strengthen.
Many people's first reaction was:
"AI is back."
But I think it's not that simple.
What really excites the market this time is the long-term target SanDisk has presented.
The company expects revenue to maintain mid-to-high single-digit to double-digit percentage growth from fiscal years 2028 to 2030, and the profit margin targets are very high.
This is quite significant for a storage company.
In the past, people saw SanDisk as a typical storage cyclical stock.
When prices rose, profits soared.
When prices fell, profits dropped again.
So the valuation was always affected by the cycle.
But now, AI data centers are getting bigger and bigger, and the amount of data is becoming more and more exaggerated.
With GPU computing power increasing, storage demand naturally follows.
So the market is now starting to think:
Is SanDisk no longer able to be valued simply as a traditional storage cyclical stock?
This is the reason why the stock price is suddenly being chased by capital again.
Another obvious catalyst today is that JPMorgan Chase has reissued an "Overweight" rating on SanDisk and set a target price of $2250.
Of course, I wouldn't dare to say to blindly chase here.
Because the more it rises, the thicker the profit-taking pressure.
But if the upcoming earnings reports continue to prove that AI storage demand is really strong, then this rise may not be simple speculation.
My current view on SanDisk is summed up in one sentence:
In the past, the hype was about storage price increases.
Now the hype is about the increasing amount of data in the AI era.
If this logic holds, the story of storage stocks may not be over yet. $SNDK $OKB This wave, I think the real logic is not just a simple pump
Recently, OKB has been really strong.
Other coins are still dragging their feet, but OKB has already touched around $100 again.
I think this time it can't be simply understood as a "whale pump."
Because the logic behind OKB now is different from before.
Now the total supply of OKB is fixed at 21 million, and OKB itself is still the core asset of the X Layer ecosystem.
This means the market is no longer just looking at an exchange platform token, but at the entire OKX on-chain ecosystem.
Of course, the rapid short-term rise definitely has emotional factors.
But what I care more about is:
If the price rises and the funds don't immediately dump, it indicates the market might be accepting a new price range.
What we fear most now is everyone suddenly shouting 100, 150, 200.
Because that's when profit-taking is most likely to occur.
So personally, I won't blindly chase just because it has risen.
I want to see if it can hold steady after a pullback.
If it can hold, it means this wave might not be over yet.
If it can't hold, then it’s likely just another emotional rally.
To put it plainly:
The biggest change for OKB now is not how much the price has risen.
But that the market has started telling a new story about it.
This is what I am truly focused on. As the closing act of the week, can retail data bring the probability of a rate hike in September down to below the safe 30% range? The core question remains this week—how to reduce the probability of a rate hike in September. Wednesday's CPI was not dovish enough, but combined with Thursday's PPI double inflation cooling, the probability of a rate hike in September drops to 30%. If the probability falls below 30%, or even below 25%, the probability returns to a safe range, and the shadow of a rate hike in September will temporarily dissipate from the market. This is a good thing for us. However, CPI + PPI still seems insufficient; the key depends on whether tonight's closing can hold off. Therefore, when data is released later, we will face three scenarios: a. The best outcome — moderate cooling of consumption, combined with CPI + PPI cooling, will weaken the US economy moderately, further damaging the September rate hike, benefiting risk assets, and boosting risk appetite! Needs retail monthly rate in the -0.1%-0.0% range, core monthly rate between 0.0% and 0.1%, control group data between 0.0% and 0.02%. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens b. Neutral result—in line with basic expectations, a soft economic landing benefits US stocks but cannot benefit overall risk assets. September rate hike probability is weaker than Category 1. Needs retail monthly rate between 0.1% and 0.2%, core monthly rate 0.2%, control group data around 0.3%. c. Worst outcome—retail sales clearly exceeded expectations, giving Walsh another hawkish reason, with a rising probability of a rate hike in September instead of falling. Retail monthly rate ≥0.4%, core ≥ 0.4%.Why did SanDisk suddenly surge this time? Plus some follow-up trading strategy sharing $SNDK surged directly by 13.7% last night, closing at $1,528.11, and before the market opened today, it once again approached around $1,612 The core catalyst came from SanDisk Investor Day The company’s long-term targets clearly exceed the market’s previous concerns about the NAND cycle: it expects FY2028–2030 revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, adjusted gross margin to stay around 80%, and fr【BTC｜The rate cut expectations brought positive news, but BTC didn't rise; this is what we should be most cautious about now】
The latest US PPI and employment data are weak, which theoretically should be positive for risk assets, but BTC is still around $63,000. Moreover, on August 13, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $131 million, marking the second consecutive day of capital outflow.
From the contract perspective, it's not simply a matter of being bullish or bearish now, but that the positive news hasn't led to a significant rise. If BTC later breaks above $64,000 with increased volume, that would look more like a true breakout; conversely, if it continues to lose ground around $63,000, we need to watch out for accelerated losses caused by long stop-losses.
I am currently more inclined to wait for confirmation and not rush into high leverage during the consolidation.
Do you think BTC is preparing to break out this time, or will there be a long liquidation after the positive news fails to push it up?
#BTC #Bitcoin #ContractTradingToday's $SNDK finally let out the breath it had been holding. A few days ago, when I looked at SanDisk's ear My initial feeling was: if this isn't satisfying, what exactly does the market want? Later I realized, what everyone worries about isn't whether SanDisk made money this quarter, but whether thebeen too cyclical before—when prices rise, everyone acts like a stock genius, but once capacity comes online, profits can just disappear.#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets BTC is consolidating around 6300, and the market is very quiet. But regulatory actions have basically come to a halt. The CLARITY Act passed the committee in May, but then Congress went on recess, pushing the vote to September. The two parties are still arguing over officials holding crypto, significantly lowering the chances of passage. The SEC's meeting originally scheduled for today to discuss new crypto issuance regulations was also suddenly canceled due to scheduling issues, with no new date set. Tokenization-related exemptions have also been delayed. Now Congress is waiting on the SEC, and the SEC is waiting on Congress; no one is making the first move.
Personally, I think this is not just a simple delay but that the difficulty of progress has become very high. There has been almost no substantial progress since May, and resuming in September does not guarantee passage. If you are still waiting for regulatory clarity to bring a big market move, you may need to prepare for a long wait.
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温
The valuation battle in the AI circle has gone crazy.
Let's get straight to the point: what impact does this have on us?
First layer, money is being drained. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic together are companies valued at over 3.6 trillion entering the public market simultaneously, and institutional funds will definitely prioritize piling in here. The crypto market already has tight liquidity, and the capital-attracting power of AI unicorns in the capital market is further compressing the liquidity space of the crypto market. As long as AI IPOs continue, it will be difficult for the crypto market to attract large incremental funds in the short term.
Second layer, narratives are linked. There are a bunch of AI concept tokens in the crypto circle, essentially telling the same story as these companies. If Anthropic can really go public with a 2 trillion valuation, the ceiling of the entire AI track will be pushed up, and AI projects in the crypto circle with real business support will also see their valuation logic pulled higher. But if valuation overextension causes the market to start re-examining AI's profitability, the risk will also transmit to the entire tech sector and even the crypto market.
Third layer, valuation benchmarks are forming. The IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic will provide the market with an unprecedented reference—how much AI companies are really worth, how they make money, and how profits are calculated. Once this framework is established, protocols and projects in the crypto circle with real revenue will be compared horizontally with traditional AI companies. Those with real cash flow will be repriced, and those only telling stories will be accelerated out.
Here’s my take.
The IPOs of these two AI giants will cause short-term liquidity squeeze for the crypto circle. But looking further ahead, the reason they can be worth trillions is not because their code is well written, but because global capital is re-pricing computing power. When the financial attributes of computing power are confirmed by Wall Street with real money, Bitcoin, as the most primitive expression of computing power, will have its long-term narrative only strengthened, not weakened.
What do you think?
$BTC $SNDK Bitcoin has continued its recent dull sideways trend, with intraday trading prices fluctuating narrowly between $62,800 and $63,500.
However, more concerning than the price is the deep liquidity crisis in the market—spot trading volume has fallen to the lowest level recorded by Glassnode since 2019, and on-chain transaction volume has hit a seven-year low. Buyers and sellers seem to be locked in a "who blinks first" standoff: sellers are unwilling to cut losses, while buyers remain inactive due to lack of direction, resulting in a rare deadlock of "seller fatigue and buyer absence."
Behind this extremely low volatility lies the dual pressure of macro uncertainty and regulatory fog. On one hand, although US inflation data shows signs of cooling, geopolitical tensions are pushing up energy prices, the Federal Reserve remains on hold, and risk assets are generally under pressure; on the other hand, the US SEC has just initiated crypto rulemaking, while the Congressional CLARITY Act has been postponed until September, leading institutional funds to stay on the sidelines, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing net outflows for several consecutive days.
Whales are also clearly divided, with some quietly increasing short positions and others choosing to reduce holdings and exit. The market seems to be waiting for a clear catalyst—whether regulatory clarity, a macro shift, or a sudden anomaly in on-chain data—otherwise, this suffocating "low-volume sideways" state will persist. For short-term traders, the biggest enemy right now is not direction but the near disappearance of volatility itself.
$BTC SEC meeting suddenly canceled, real market interpretation at present
The biggest event in the crypto world today is that the SEC's originally scheduled crypto regulation meeting was abruptly canceled with no new date announced. It seems crypto policies are often delayed, and both sides still appear to be negotiating.
The official explanation is a scheduling conflict, which basically means the parties couldn't reach an agreement. Traditional Wall Street brokers strongly oppose the new regulations, and with the U.S. Senate in recess, the conditions for policy implementation are not mature. The SEC can only temporarily halt progress and dare not enforce it forcibly.
I feel this cancellation is neither a positive development nor a complete negative crackdown; it simply means the overall regulatory rules are postponed.
The market had been expecting this meeting to finalize rules on tokenized securities, especially on-chain stock tokens like SPCX. Everyone was waiting for clear direction. Now with the delay, the "certainty" the market hoped for is completely lost, and uncertainty is extended.
The impact on BTC and ETH markets is minimal; there won't be direct price swings. But it will suppress overall market sentiment. Institutions were already cautious, and now with regulatory uncertainty increasing, large funds will be even less likely to enter and push prices up. So the market will likely continue to trade sideways within a range.
U.S. crypto compliance regulation is far more cautious and conservative than many expect. There is no quick, comprehensive compliance rally; all positive developments are slow, dragged out, and repeatedly delayed.
For now, everyone should try to avoid heavy positions and use low leverage for swing trading. I still feel the overall trend is upward because the U.S. stock market continues to provide new strength to the crypto space Bitcoin ETF flows just took a noticeable hit.
📉 Net outflows: -$131.13M
ARK 21Shares → -$58.82M
Fidelity → -$55.12M
GBTC → -$36.29M
Bitwise → -$9.28M
BlackRock → -$5.74M
Not exactly encouraging.
But the ETF outflows themselves aren’t what I’m watching most closely. The real question is how $BTC reacts to the selling pressure.
Weak price action + persistent outflows = warning sign. ⚠️
Strong price action + outflows = potential absorption. 💪
The difference is important.
Capital may be leaving ETFs, but if $BTC refuses to break lower, it could mean the market is absorbing that supply. The price reaction will tell us much more than the flow number alone.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 This week's data clearly laid out the situation.
CPI year-on-year 3.5%→3.4%, core CPI 2.6%→2.5%; PPI year-on-year 5.5%→4.7%, core PPI 4.7%→4.2%; initial jobless claims climbed to 209,000. Inflation cooling and employment loosening, both lines confirmed simultaneously, the urgency of a rate hike in September is fading.
But the Fed folks are still arguing.
Harker insists a hike is necessary, saying rates are "not tight enough"; Barkin counters that "the current level is sufficient." Hawks and doves each stick to their own views, neither yielding.
Traders are too lazy to wait. Short-term rate contracts no longer fully price in a rate hike this year, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen across the board, and the S&P 500 has directly broken through the historic 7800 level. The market votes with its feet, not waiting for their quarrel to end.
Oil prices are also helping. WTI dropped over 2% to $81, Brent slid toward $87. The Strait of Hormuz stalemate remains, but the geopolitical premium is clearly ebbing, and inflation expectations are sinking accordingly.
On Thursday, SanDisk surged nearly 14 points, the storage sector collectively rose, the S&P 500 first broke 7800, gold hovered at a high of 4380, but Bitcoin remained stuck at 63800.
The same macroeconomic report, but completely different scores. U.S. stocks are racing ahead on rate cut expectations, gold sideways indicates the safe-haven base hasn't moved, Bitcoin lying flat shows it's still waiting for its own rhythm—macro is the backdrop, not the trigger.
The direction has already tilted toward rate cuts, the path is clear. But how different assets move depends on their own fundamental scripts. #InflationCoolingMeetsRateHike ## SanDisk Market Brief Analysis
SanDisk's stock price surged again, rising more than 13% in a single day, becoming a focal point in the U.S. tech sector.
## Core Reasons for the Sudden Surge
1. Investor Day Reveals Financial Targets Exceeding Expectations
The company announced a long-term financial model at Investor Day that far exceeded Wall Street forecasts, projecting a mid-to-high double-digit compound annual revenue growth from fiscal years 2028 to 2030, and setting an adjusted gross margin target near 80%, greatly boosting capital market confidence.
2. Explosive Demand for AI Inference and Data Centers
Global AI large model training and inference have driven explosive demand for high-density, low-power enterprise SSDs (such as 128TB high-capacity solid-state drives). SanDisk, leveraging advanced 3D NAND technology, has successfully entered the core storage chain of data centers.
3. Global NAND Flash Supply Shortage and Price Surge
The AI hardware boom has caused a severe global shortage of storage chips, with NAND flash contract prices rising sharply. The simultaneous increase in volume and price has driven explosive strong growth in performance.
4. Business Model Innovation Breaking the Cyclical Logic
The company plans to lock in high gross margins through long-term commercial agreements, attempting to break free from the traditional storage industry's severe cyclical volatility, gaining a revaluation and premium from Wall Street capital.
## Summary and Market Outlook
Currently, SanDisk is driven by the AI storage super cycle and better-than-expected performance guidance, with strong fundamental momentum. However, considering the significant short-term gains, a high-level consolidation and shakeout may occur. It is recommended not to blindly chase the high prices but to wait for the market to digest and pull back before seeking entry opportunities.
#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 $SNDK AI infrastructure performance is emerging as a new link that controls cryptocurrency supply and demand. As long as AI capital expenditure expansion does not end, can the risk appetite support levels for BTC and ETH be maintained? AMD's Q2 2026 revenue grew about 50% year-over-year to $11.54 billion, with the data center segment reaching $6.7 billion, up 107%. Nvidia reaffirmed the strength of AI demand with FY2026 data center revenue reaching approximately $194 billion. In memory, SK Hynix posted record results thanks to demand for HBM, advanced DRAM, and NAND, and began shipments of HBM4. SanDisk's quarterly revenue surged to $8.97 billion from $1.9 billion in the same period last year due to AI storage demand. Including TSMC, the AI investment cycle is spreading beyond GPUs to memory, storage, networking, data centers, and power infrastructure overall. The key question is what kind of price structure changes this trend will create in the virtual asset market. Strong AI infrastructure performance is transmitted to crypto through two channels. First,On-chain data shows that approximately 4.77 million $BTC bought in 2025 remain, down 41.5% from the peak in December last year. All these coins are currently at a loss, and the reduction basically equals selling at a loss to change hands. Selling was extremely intense before February, then the curve clearly slowed down — the most panicked holders have already exited. Meanwhile, the coins bought between 2022 and 2024 that still have unrealized gains show a selling curve that has nearly flattened, indicating long-term holders are indifferent to current volatility.
Comparing history: At the end of 2018, high-position coins from 2017 decreased by about 62%; at the end of 2022, high-position coins from 2021 decreased by about 51%. This round is currently only 41.5%, and if mechanically referencing history, the selling pressure seems not fully exhausted.
However, there is a key variable this round — institutions. ETFs and institutions like MicroStrategy hold over 2.4 million BTC, and this portion of coins has a much stronger lock-up willingness than retail investors, with extremely low turnover rates. ETFs had no outflows throughout August, and institutions are still accumulating. This means the bear market this round may not require a 60% reduction in high-position coins to reach the bottom.
Additionally, the seller exhaustion index has entered an extreme range, the daily spending of long-term holders has dropped to a two-year low, and the "big giveaways" from old OGs have basically ended.
In summary, panic selling has basically been released, and selling pressure is tending to exhaust. But the reduction in on-chain coins is still some distance from historical bear market bottoms, so short-term fluctuations may still occur. The difference is that the lock-up effect of institutional funds is changing the supply-demand structure, so this bottom may be closer and gentler than expected.The data released this week has already sent a clear enough signal.
CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, core CPI dropped from 2.6% to 2.5%;
PPI year-on-year declined from 5.5% to 4.7%, core PPI fell from 4.7% to 4.2%;
Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000.
Three combined signals: inflation steadily cooling, employment weakening marginally, and the urgency for a rate hike in September significantly reduced.
However, opinions within the Federal Reserve remain deeply divided.
Harker insists on further rate hikes, with the core reason being that the current policy rate is not restrictive enough.
Barkin believes many officials already agree that the current rate level is sufficiently tight.
One side advocates continuing rate hikes, the other side supports holding steady, with completely opposing views.
Market traders have no patience to wait for officials to debate. Short-term interest rate contracts no longer fully price in rate hikes this year, U.S. Treasury yields are falling across the board, and the S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high. Capital is moving ahead of the Fed's statements.
Oil prices are cooperating as well, with WTI plunging over 2% to around $81, Brent dipping to $87. The stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, but the geopolitical risk premium is rapidly fading.
Once oil prices ease, the most important anchor for inflation expectations will also move downward.
$SNDK SanDisk surged nearly 14% in a single day on Thursday, lifting the entire storage sector.
The S&P 500 surpassed 7800, U.S. stocks keep hitting new highs; gold is consolidating around the 4380 high; BTC Bitcoin remains around 63800.
Despite the same macro narrative of cooling inflation, three asset classes have shown completely different market rhythms.
U.S. stocks are trading ahead on expectations of future rate cuts; gold's high-level consolidation indicates that safe-haven funds have not exited; Bitcoin staying flat suggests it has not yet shifted to the macro pricing mainline.
The exact same macro environment, different assets, completely independent market movements.
The big picture market is already betting on the path of rate cuts, and the major trend is very clear. But each asset class’s rhythm depends on its own fundamentals and capital rotation.
$BTC $SNDK $XAU
#CPI and PPI cooling simultaneously, rate hike disagreements widen
Trader DogzongAfter SanDisk surged 13.7%: Has the logic changed, or is it just sentiment?
Last night, SanDisk ($SNDK) broke through the previous platform with a strong 13.7% bullish candlestick, closing at $1,528.11, and even touched $1,612 in pre-market trading. The core catalyst driving this rally came from the company's Investor Day, where long-term targets were released — the market is re-pricing NAND, a sector once considered highly cyclical.
The financial guidance provided by the company significantly exceeded market expectations. Revenue is expected to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth from FY2028 to 2030, with an adjusted gross margin target of about 80% and a free cash flow margin of about 50%. These three figures combined almost break the market’s inherent perception that NAND is "weather-dependent." More importantly, SanDisk revealed it has signed multi-year agreements with eight customers, with a weighted average term of about four years, attempting to transform the previously volatile storage business into a "stable rental income" business model by locking volume and prices through contracts.
At the same time, the continuous pull from AI data centers on storage provides fundamental support for this rally. Under the catalyst of Investor Day, capital is re-trading the logic of "AI storage + tight NAND supply."
But after the big surge, the core question becomes: Can this strong bullish candlestick be effectively supported?
From a technical structure perspective, the resistance zone above is between $1,600 and $1,620. If the price can stabilize above this area after the open, short-term strength is likely to continue, with the next targets at $1,650 or even $1,700. The first support level below is near yesterday’s high at $1,580, and the second support is around the closing price area of $1,525–$1,530.
In terms of trading strategy, two scenarios need to be considered: If the stock price holds steady in the $1,580–$1,600 range, it indicates that capital is willing to buy at high levels, confirming a strong structure. Conversely, if it gaps up but quickly falls back below $1,580, or even breaks below $1,528, caution is warranted as this rally may be a spike followed by a pullback triggered by news.
The positive fundamentals are real, but SanDisk’s current volatility is extremely high, with RSI rising near 73, making the risk-reward ratio for chasing the rally in the short term unfavorable. A more rational approach to this rally might be to acknowledge the improved logic but avoid chasing highs, instead waiting for a pullback confirmation or a right-side signal after breaking through resistance.
The direction is clear, but timing is more important than direction. #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 Comprehensive analysis of the current data from three dimensions: **macroeconomic fundamentals**, **market trend**, and **liquidity flow**:
### 1. Macroeconomic Inflation Data (Fundamentals: Mild Support)
* **CPI Data**: July CPI annual rate dropped to **3.4%** (previous 3.5%), core CPI annual rate fell to **2.5%**, indicating that U.S. inflation pressure is easing as expected.
* **PPI Data**: July PPI month-on-month growth was **0.0%** (flat), with energy prices significantly declining, further confirming the reduction in upstream production costs.
* **Data Interpretation**: The cooling inflation consolidates the macro expectation of subsequent Fed rate cuts, fundamentally a **mild medium-to-long-term positive**. However, since the market had already anticipated and priced this in, the data release's positive effect did not directly translate into upward breakout momentum.
### 2. Price and Market Data (Technical: Range Consolidation)
* **Price Dynamics**: Today BTC pulled back from the intraday high near **$63,500** to around **$62,800**, in a typical 1% - 2% narrow retracement consolidation.
* **Chip Distribution**: Dense order support is concentrated below at **$62,000 - $62,500**; above, the **$64,500 - $65,500** range forms a strong resistance zone from previous break-even positions and long profit-taking.
### 3. Capital and Settlement Data (Liquidity: Reduced Volume, Wait-and-See)
* **Weekend and Settlement Effects**: Coinciding with Friday options settlement and the upcoming weekend suspension of U.S. stock spot ETFs, short-term funds generally choose to reduce positions and observe before the weekend.
* **Volume-less Retracement**: Trading volume continues to shrink, indicating the current pullback is mainly a natural correction due to lack of follow-up buying rather than panic selling by major funds.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 $BTC $ETH $SNDK The S&P 500 is charging toward 8000 points, but the real test is just beginning
The U.S. stock market is experiencing a trend that has surprised many
While many investors are still waiting for a pullback, the S&P 500 index has been continuously hitting new all-time highs. On August 13, the S&P 500 broke through 7800 points intraday and closed just above 7800 points, getting closer to the 8000-point milestone. It took less than two weeks to move from 7700 to 7800 points, with the index's rise noticeably accelerating.
The core driver behind this rally is not just pure emotional euphoria but three reinforcing logics happening simultaneously: cooling inflation, reduced Federal Reserve pressure, and continued realization of corporate earnings.
The latest PPI data shows that price pressures on the U.S. production side are lower than expected, significantly easing market concerns about further Fed tightening in September. After interest rate expectations eased, capital flowed back into equities, with tech stocks and growth sectors once again becoming the main driving forces.
However, I believe the most noteworthy aspect of this rally is not how high the index has climbed, but that the underlying logic behind the rise is changing.
In recent years, the U.S. stock market's gains relied more on valuation expansion and liquidity expectations, but now the market is increasingly dependent on real earnings.
Especially in the AI industry chain.
Many previously questioned whether AI investment was overhyped, but since the beginning of this year, the focus of capital has shifted from "AI concepts" to "whether AI can generate profits."
Companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta continue to expand AI infrastructure investments, with data centers, cloud computing, chips, optical communications, and power supply chains becoming new growth directions. The market now truly cares whether these massive capital investments can translate into higher revenues and cash flow in the future.
This is also why some institutions have started raising their S&P 500 targets.
Citigroup recently raised its 2026 S&P 500 target to 8100 points, not simply based on expecting further valuation increases, but because corporate earnings forecasts are improving. Some institutions also emphasize that future index gains will need to rely more on profit growth rather than just valuation expansion.
However, the closer we get to 8000 points, the more we cannot ignore the risks.
The biggest variable in the market remains the Federal Reserve.
Although improved inflation data has reduced rate hike pressure, core inflation is still above the 2% target, and policy will not completely shift based on a single data point. If employment continues to deteriorate, expectations for rate cuts may rise further; but if energy prices, wages, or service inflation rebound, the Fed may remain cautious.
Another deeper question is:
Can the AI profit cycle sustain?
Currently, the market is willing to give tech companies higher valuations because it believes AI will bring the next wave of productivity improvements. If AI capital expenditures continue to grow but profit realization lags expectations, valuation pressure may reemerge.
Therefore, 8000 points is neither an endpoint nor just a psychological number.
It represents a new phase—the era of gains driven by stories is ending, and the future requires companies to deliver more profits as proof.
My view is that, in the short term, the upward trend in U.S. stocks remains intact, the cooling inflation data has given risk assets some breathing room, and the AI industry chain remains the strongest main theme.
But the difficulty of further gains will clearly increase.
For the index to continue breaking through, it will no longer be enough to have just good data; sustained earnings exceeding expectations will be required. Especially in a high-valuation environment, any signs of earnings slowdown will be magnified.
What truly matters is not whether the S&P 500 can surpass 8000 points, but whether, after surpassing it, the market has strong enough fundamentals to support further gains.
In the coming months, the core competition in U.S. stocks will shift from "who owns the AI story" to "who can turn AI into profits."
$DOS $OKB $GRVT
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 What exactly is going on with SanDisk? Do you know the story behind the big surge? $SNDK Recently, the stock price surged sharply due to aggressive guidance released during the investor day, leading to clear market divergence in opinions. To judge whether this rally is a “sustainable positive” or “overvaluation,” we need to take a rational view.
$SNDK has long-term sustainability and a reshaped valuation logic
Supporters believe that SanDisk’s rise is not mere speculation but based on structural changes in fundamentals and business model, with long-term sustainability:
1. Business model transformation smooths cyclical fluctuations: SanDisk is trying to break free from the traditional NAND (flash memory) industry’s cyclical fate of “boom and bust.” By launching a “New Business Model (NBM),” SanDisk has signed long-term agreements with 8 customers, locking in guaranteed revenue of up to $93.9 billion and covering about 50% of bit shipments in 2027 and about two-thirds in 2028. These long-term contracts are expected to align SanDisk’s profit structure closer to logic chip manufacturers, improving earnings predictability.
2. AI inference demand reshapes storage hierarchy: As AI moves from training to large-scale inference, KV Cache is reshaping data center storage architecture. SanDisk expects the enterprise data center flash market to reach 1.2 ZB by 2030. Additionally, the company’s high-bandwidth flash (HBF) technology aims to solve the AI “memory wall” problem, offering huge future potential.
3. Aggressive financial guidance and shareholder returns: SanDisk has set extremely high targets of about 80% gross margin and about 75% operating margin for fiscal years 2028-2030. Meanwhile, the company commits to returning 100% of remaining cash after business investments to shareholders, with a current remaining buyback capacity as high as $15.5 billion, providing strong bottom support for the stock price.
However, expectations are overextended, with risks of overvaluation and correction
The current high enthusiasm has overextended the ability to deliver future performance, showing clear signs of overvaluation:
1. Profit margin targets are extremely aggressive and difficult to achieve: For the NAND industry, an 80% gross margin target is at a very high level. Despite long-term contracts as a floor, if subsequent AI demand or spot prices fall short of expectations, the storage sector still faces significant correction pressure.
2. Short-term guidance below expectations triggers a “trust crisis”: On August 5, SanDisk’s Q4 earnings beat expectations across the board, but next quarter’s revenue guidance was slightly below the market’s very high expectations, causing the stock to plunge over 8% at one point. This shows the market’s extremely harsh growth slope expectations for SanDisk; any slowdown in future growth could easily trigger capital outflows.
3. External macro and industry risks: The U.S. government recently imposed tariffs on core semiconductor supply chain regions (such as Japan, South Korea), increasing supply chain uncertainty. Moreover, cutting-edge technologies like HBF are still in early validation stages and require time before large-scale commercial shipments, making short-term profit conversion difficult.
In summary, SanDisk’s rise is supported by solid long-term logic but also contains overvaluation elements driven by short-term overheated sentiment.
* In the long term, NBM contracts and AI inference demand are indeed reshaping its valuation system, providing sustained fundamental upward momentum.
* In the short term, the market has priced in perfect expectations for the next few years in advance. As institutions like Goldman Sachs have warned, whether long-term contracts can truly weaken industry cyclicality still needs time to verify. The current high market expectations raise the bar for performance delivery, and short-term corrections due to macro fluctuations or guidance misses cannot be ruled out. $BTC has hit another U.S. Treasury bomb!
The long-term financing cost in the U.S. has surged again. The U.S. Treasury completed a $25 billion 30-year bond auction, with the winning yield rising to 5.216%, the highest since 2001.
What does this mean? Long-term capital is demanding higher returns, and concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit, debt supply, and inflation risks remain.
The continued rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields will directly increase government and corporate financing costs, while also raising the risk-free asset yields, temporarily suppressing valuations of risk assets like U.S. stocks and BTC.
So, in the short term, high interest rates are a pressure point above BTC. But from a larger cycle perspective, the longer high interest rates persist, the greater the interest burden on U.S. debt, and market expectations for subsequent rate cuts and liquidity easing may reheat.
Therefore, don’t just focus on a single candlestick now. Short-term high rates suppress prices and increase volatility; if BTC experiences a deep pullback, it might actually provide a better entry price for subsequent capital inflows.
Next, focus on changes in U.S. Treasury yields and whether BTC’s key support can hold.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 $BICO rose by 12.72% in 24 hours but has been losing ground in the last 12 hours (-2.14%). Activity is cooling down — volumes are below average.
The trading range has narrowed, with the price close to the nearest support at 0.0264. If it loses this, the next support is at 0.02625.
Resistance above is at 0.02836, but it is not being tested yet.🚨 $SNDK — THE MARKET FINALLY EXHALED
SanDisk’s latest results were impressive: $8.97B quarterly revenue, +51% sequentially, 84.6% gross margin, and a data-center business that doubled.
Yet the stock initially sold off.
Why? Because the market wasn’t just asking “How much did SanDisk make?”
It was asking: “Can these profits last?”
That’s what made today’s Investor Day more interesting.
t#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets Reforms always progress in a spiral manner, often leading to unintended consequences.
Tax-sharing system reform, state-owned enterprise reform, exchange rate reform, and so on are indeed good reforms with obvious achievements. However, many of our current problems also stem from these reforms.
For example, although the tax-sharing system has strengthened the central government's fiscal capacity, local finances have gone down a path detached from fiscal control. For instance, local rural commercial banks and city commercial banks have become the local governments' cash bags, and later land finance emerged. This is equivalent to local governments holding part of the minting power.
State-owned enterprise reform, through the joint-stock system and limited liability company system, created urban investment platforms and local state-owned enterprises, which instead became the arms for local governments to directly manipulate the economy.
After exchange rate reform, to stimulate exports, local governments massively supported and encouraged exports, causing the surplus to soar. The central government completely lost control over the surge in foreign exchange reserves, which at one point determined our money issuance.
What are the results? China's local governments are the richest and most powerful local governments in the world, the only ones not bound by fiscal discipline, and also the local governments with the largest scale of debt. They are the only local governments in the world capable of turning around and holding the central economic policy hostage. Remember Premier Wen's famous saying?
So sometimes it seems contradictory: in our country, which has always valued centralization, reforms aimed to strengthen the center, but local governments ended up hijacking national policies.
This is also what has been continuously corrected over the past few years.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh calculates: This isn't AI fighting; it's two brothers competing to be the "new king of tech," while rolling out the red carpet for Bitcoin!
Conclusion first: In this valuation arm-wrestle, Anthropic has already taken the lead—throwing down $65 billion in Series H funding, pushing its valuation to 965 billion, surpassing OpenAI's 852 billion for the first time. Annual revenue breaks 47 billion, enterprise clients jump from 9% to 34.4%, while OpenAI remains stuck at 32.3%. Rumors say it's planning an unofficial IPO worth $2 trillion—this isn't just going public, it's aiming for the stars.
Why is OpenAI lagging?
It's still playing the old game of "free to attract users, paid to milk them"—ChatGPT has 900 million weekly active users, but a payment rate under 6%, losing $2 for every $1 earned. CFO and CEO are almost fighting over when to go public, with projected losses of $200 billion by 2028. Pharaoh exclaims: Brother, are you doing charity or AI?
Anthropic is much smarter: no small fish, just casting a net for big ones! 80% of revenue comes from enterprise APIs, Claude Code dominates the programming market, and 70% of Fortune 100 companies are its clients. Even more impressive, it’s partnered with Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix—three storage giants—and signed a $45 billion computing power deal with SpaceX—this isn’t an AI company, it’s a "computing power warlord"!
What’s the impact on Bitcoin (BTC)?
Pharaoh says: Which AI giant goes public first doesn’t matter; what matters is whether their valuations hold steady.
· Successful IPO with strong stock price → tech sector rallies, Bitcoin benefits.
· IPO failure and valuation collapse → entire sector repriced, Bitcoin shakes.
Remember Pharaoh’s mantra: good deals come to those who wait, great shows come to those who watch. Whoever rings the bell first and how loudly they do it will directly shape the next tech narrative. Let’s grab our seats, watch their performance, and wait for Bitcoin’s tailwind.
Pharaoh · No fish farming, only fishing · Computing Power Observer 😏$BTC $ETH $SNDK #OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 [BTC Monthly Level "Cutting Effect": Continuation Pattern Intact, Downtrend Still Ongoing]
From the BTC monthly level perspective, the significant large bearish candle in June 2026 structurally formed a highly destructive "range cutting effect."
A close look at the chart reveals a highly cautionary technical detail: the monthly K-lines before and after June, despite having overlapping wicks testing each other, have their real bodies completely disconnected and non-overlapping.
This releases a very strong bearish signal in Price Action:
1. Effective resistance shift downward: the real body bottom range before June has been firmly established as a new strong resistance zone, where bullish rebounds cannot even achieve a real body retracement and recovery at the monthly level;
2. Continuation, not reversal: the current consolidation below is merely a weak pause after breaking a key structure, with no monthly-level bottom reversal engulfing pattern appearing.
Combined with the previous on-chain cost line cycle pattern that has not yet completed the ultimate crossover, the current consolidation is most likely just a bear market downtrend continuation. This real body disconnection means bears firmly control pricing power, and it is highly probable that the market will continue downward to seek deeper cycle real buying support. Be patient waiting for the break below the 53K BTC Realized Price; do not rush to heavily buy at mid-levels catching falling knives.The huge drop in $SNDK today is because: SanDisk just finished the "In Focus 2026" investor day, where management directly unveiled a multi-year financial blueprint covering fiscal years 2028 to 2030. The market got excited, and the stock price immediately surged.
But as traders watching the spectacle, we need to ponder one question: which of these long-term grand goals can actually be realized, and which are just pie-in-the-sky? This determines whether the current price increase is short-term or long-term.
I think the first factor is the market's filter on these cyclical stocks, and during an industry upturn, management's long-term guidance often carries an optimistic emotional boost.
The second factor is the technology iteration and the profit structure between high-end and consumer segments.
The first is an emotional effect; the second won't see major breakthroughs in the short term. So I believe this is a short-term benefit, and after the weekend when people sober up and calm down, the price will come down.
Moreover, there are still big uncertainties.
The grand blueprint depicts a smooth scenario. But the storage industry’s rule has always been "overcapacity happens overnight." Once downstream AI server capital expenditures slow down, or competitors release capacity early to grab market share, the so-called long-term financial model will need revision.
Wall Street can value stocks based on future high growth, but short-term funds focus on the next quarter's supply-demand margin.
So for those interested in SanDisk or the entire storage sector, don’t get dazzled by the long-term grand goals; trading still needs to be based on the current actual situation
#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 #Crypto valuation shifts to income, how is BTC priced?
Recently, I saw "crypto should be valued based on income," and I think that's reasonable; air chains should have been exposed long ago. A public chain earning less in annual fees than the fruit shop at my neighborhood entrance, yet valued at tens of billions of dollars—isn't that ridiculous?
But then I thought, what about BTC?
I checked, BTC's annual fees amount to less than $100 million, sounds okay? Market cap is 1.27 trillion, P/S ratio over twelve thousand times. Some say if valued by income, BTC is only worth $10.
I was stunned.
Because I couldn't refute it. BTC indeed doesn't make a profit, no interest, no dividends, all fees go to miners, nothing to holders. By traditional valuation, it's just a piece of code generating no cash flow.
But gold doesn't generate cash flow either.
$XAU Gold has a market cap of two to three hundred trillion, how much does it earn you annually? Zero. No one is foolish enough to calculate PE for gold because gold is not an asset, it's money.
$BTC is now following this path.
Its value has nothing to do with income; it's about scarcity and consensus. 21 million coins fixed, halving reduces inflation to 0.8%, even lower than gold, 79% of coins locked by long-term holders, BlackRock and Fidelity quietly buying. Supply decreases, believers increase.
You say consensus is fake? Isn't fiat also consensus? The dollar relies on government credit, BTC relies on math and code—judge which is stronger yourself.
What about ETH? At least ETH has income.
Gas fees, burning, staking—all three exist, over 140 billion stablecoins locked on-chain, over 10 billion in RWA, L2 TVL three to four hundred billion. P/S ratio over a hundred times, two orders of magnitude lower than BTC. Yet, from 4900 down to 1900, a 60% drop, still no buyers.
This is very interesting.
BTC can't be valued by income but people trust it; ETH can be valued by income and is cheaper but no one buys. What does this mean? It's not about income at all right now. When sentiment is high, even air can fly; when sentiment is gone, gold will also crash.
Income valuation is a good measure for air projects, just don't use it to predict BTC or ETH.
Now BTC is at 63000, halved from last October's high of 126000; $ETH at 1900, down over 60% from 4900, a chorus of wails. But I feel that when everyone starts questioning their value based on "income," it actually means they are pretty much neglected.
Who really holds on for fees?
What do you think BTC and ETH should be priced by?
Pure discussion, personal opinion. Storage sector sees frequent positive developments, rebounding as expected, but I still choose to take profits
The day before yesterday, I indicated that the storage sector's rebound was gearing up, and Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk rebounded for two consecutive days, with SanDisk surging more than 13% yesterday.
Along with the market rebound, the storage sector has seen many positives:
Hynix: The market expects the company may further increase stock buybacks and shareholder returns; meanwhile, Temasek reportedly plans to invest directly in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics through an internal team. It should be noted that Temasek has not yet officially confirmed this new investment plan.
SanDisk: The board approved an additional $14 billion stock buyback plan, adding to the previous remaining quota, bringing the total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion; at the same time, it provided a significantly better-than-expected long-term financial model—FY28–30 revenue is expected to maintain mid-to-high single-digit to double-digit growth, adjusted gross margin around 80%, operating margin about 75%, and plans to prioritize excess cash for buybacks.
Micron: Plans to increase capital returns starting December 9, 2026, and to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders long-term.
But even after seeing these positives, one should not get carried away.
In this rebound, the only fundamental revaluation truly occurring is with SanDisk—the far better-than-expected long-term financial model directly drove a volume surge and sharp price increase.
In comparison, although Micron and Hynix have rebounded noticeably, their volume is not particularly strong at present.
More importantly:
Buybacks can improve shareholder returns and valuation expectations but are not sufficient alone to prove the storage sector has completed a trend reversal.
Positives can be bullish signals, but one should not ignore the signals given by price and volume themselves just because there are many positives.
Therefore, I will still take profits on MU and Hynix near the upper boundary of the resistance area as planned, and continue to observe SanDisk's subsequent volume and price performance before making a decision.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
#Storage #SNDK #MU #Hynix #Micron #SanDisk Just saw the draft from the Russian central bank. Starting September 1, $BTC, $ETH, and $USDT can be traded on Russian regulated exchanges. Ordinary retail investors can only buy up to 300,000 rubles per year, roughly a bit over 3600, and must pass a test. Qualified investors have no limits. Domestic use for payments is still prohibited; these cryptocurrencies can only be used for trading and cross-border settlements. This will have almost no short-term impact on prices. The limit is too low, so the new buying volume is negligible. BTC hasn't moved much since the news came out, indicating the market had already priced in the "Russia implementing regulation" event. What’s worth noting is that this major mining country is officially incorporating mainstream coins into the official channels. In the long term, the regulatory framework is becoming clearer, which will compress gray market funds but won’t suddenly turn into a positive catalyst. What’s more critical now is tonight’s retail sales data. If the data remains weak, combined with the recent macro sentiment being bearish, BTC’s current range-bound volatility might continue for a while longer. 🚨 WHY IS $SNDK SURGING THIS HARD? THE CATALYST IS BIGGER THAN ONE GOOD DAY.
SanDisk’s latest move appears to be driven by a major fundamental repricing, especially after its Investor Day guidance.
Here’s what the market is focusing on:
1️⃣ 2028–2030 LONG-TERM GUIDANCE
Management outlined ambitious targets including mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth, around 80% gross margin, and roughly 50% free-cash-flow margin.
That directly challenges the idea that SNDK is simply another cyclical memory stock. 👀
2️⃣ AI FLASH MEMORY — THE BIGGER STORY 🤖
SanDisk is positioning its next-generation HBF technology toward AI inference and the growing KV-cache workload.
If AI inference continues consuming more high-performance storage, the market could be looking at a new structural demand driver, rather than just another memory-cycle peak.
3️⃣ CAPITAL RETURN 💰
Management’s commitment to return excess cash to shareholders after completing planned capex adds another layer to the bullish thesis, with dividends and buybacks becoming part of the valuation story.
4️⃣ WALL STREET TARGETS MOVING HIGHER 📈
Major banks have reportedly raised their targets, with Goldman Sachs around $2,200 and JPMorgan around $2,250.
That kind of target-price reset can attract momentum and institutional flows quickly—especially when the broader storage sector is also moving.
👀 What does this mean for the $1,515 short?
This is the uncomfortable part.
The move is no longer purely technical. The market is repricing the long-term story.
A pre-market spike can absolutely see profit-taking after the official open, but expecting an immediate collapse back to your entry is risky if the fundamental narrative remains intact.
If I were managing the risk, I’d focus on:
📉 Sector momentum weakening
📊 Heavy-volume rejection after the open
🔻 Failure to hold key breakout levels
💰 Whether institutional buying continues
And one rule stands out:
Don’t average down into a short just because the position is underwater.
A stock can remain “overbought” much longer than a short seller can remain comfortable.#DailyOrbit Fundamental Research Report $REDSTONE / RedStone (Oracle/Middleware) $3.20
Essentially: RedStone ($REDSTONE) overall score 57/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows paid usage traces, and token value capture is realized.
Project overview: RedStone (token $REDSTONE), oracle/middleware sector. Focuses on modular oracles. Competitors include LINK, PYTH. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Customer price range $50-500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as a niche single-point tool. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, paid usage traces exist. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User metrics: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: RedStone $3.00B, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. FDV: RedStone $4.20B, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. Annual revenue: RedStone $2.00M, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: RedStone undisclosed, LINK undisclosed, PYTH undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 57/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources, for reference only, not investment advice. If indicator deviation exceeds 30%, reassessment needed.
That's all for now, see you next time.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitInvestor sentiment is slightly positive, but the market remains skeptical about the sustainability of high gross margins. The core issue is: can the 83%+ gross margin be maintained? Until a convincing answer on "normalized gross margin" is provided, the rebound is more likely to be "volatility disguised as an uptrend." Why say "slightly positive" - Long-term contracts lock in the future: signed 10 long-term agreements with 8 customers, with a minimum revenue commitment of $93.9 billion; supporting performance financial guarantees of $16.5 billion to cover customer default risk - Contract duration and capacity coverage: weighted average term over 4 years; expected to cover over 50% of wafer capacity in fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal 2028 - Contract pricing and flexibility: gross margin midpoint around 80%, retaining upside flexibility when market prices rise - Business structure optimization: enterprise SSDs account for 48% of global NAND shipments, up from 26% a year ago; industry revenue has grown fivefold; data center business increased 13-fold year-over-year, becoming the core engine - Active shareholder returns: board approved an additional $14 billion stock repurchase, with total remaining authorization reaching $15.5 billion Why the market remains "anxious" - Sustainability of high gross margins: Q2 gross margin reached 84.6%, next quarter guidance 83%–85%, market worries about "cycle peak" - Earnings guidance below expectations: next quarter revenue guidance $10.3 billion–$10.8 billion, midpoint below analyst expectations; under high expectations, "meeting expectations" may be seen as negative - Institutional divergence: Jefferies lowered target price to $1750, warning earnings heavily rely on price increases; Goldman Sachs and Citi remain optimistic with target prices of $2200 and $2500 respectively - Short-seller warnings: Citron views NAND as a commoditized, highly cyclical product, with high gross margins typically a feature of cycle peaks Trading and observation recommendations - Monitor evolution of gross margin guidance: focus on explanations and whether the "normalized gross margin" guidance range shifts upward in subsequent reports and communications - Track execution and renewal of long-term contracts: on-time delivery and new/renewal status determine revenue and gross margin stability - Assess business structure changes: whether the enterprise/data center share and growth continue to improve, and if consumer segment drags overall performance - Use repurchase pace: progress of large repurchase plans can serve as an indicator of management confidence and stock price support $Q3营收 91.2亿美元，同比增长25% ，创历史新高；调整后EPS 3.50美元 ，也超过市场预期。下一季度营收指引中值 102.5亿美元 ，同样高于华尔街预期。 但结果是，股价盘前一度跌近5%。 问题已经不是业绩差。 而是过去一年芯片设备股涨得太多，市场现在要的不是“增长”，而是 持续大幅超预期 。 应用材料也因此释放出一个信号。 芯片基本面可以继续很好，但只要没有好到超出所有人的想象，股价照样会跌。$XTQQQ and 6 other tokenized US stocks are now available for around-the-clock trading. The core market conflict lies in the collision between liquidity discounts during US stock market closures and the redistribution of crypto capital risk appetite.
$XTQQQ is built on the xStocks architecture on Solana and X Layer, supporting 24-hour trading and an automatic dividend reinvestment mechanism. Since the tokens do not confer legal ownership or voting rights of the underlying companies, their structural pricing anchors still heavily depend on the real liquidity during traditional market trading hours.
The factors driving the market are ranked as follows: spread changes during traditional US stock market closures, the efficiency of on-chain grid and DCA strategies in absorbing positions, and the transmission of macro inflation expectations to overall market risk appetite. Changes in on-chain position concentration during non-trading hours directly determine short-term volatility levels.
In an upward scenario, if macro risk appetite remains stable and the US stock market rises, arbitrage funds will maintain buy and sell order depth overnight, confirming the 24-hour liquidity premium of $XTQQQ. The key variable to watch is the replenishment frequency of offshore market makers; if the spread remains locked within a very narrow range, the bullish scenario continues to hold.
In a downward scenario, if unexpected macro inflation data emerges during US market closures, market makers may quickly withdraw liquidity due to closed hedging channels, causing spreads to widen sharply. If on-chain automated strategies are passively triggered to sell during liquidity vacuums, the market will rapidly move toward discount ranges.
A signal of pricing logic failure is when, during non-US stock trading hours, $XTQQQ prices deviate continuously by more than 2% from the underlying asset benchmark without arbitrage funds correcting it. At this point, the on-chain market-making hedging mechanism is declared broken, and prices are driven purely by on-chain position games.
The most important variables to observe over the next 7 days are the speed of spread convergence during US market open and close transitions, and the actual order depth of automated trading tools during low liquidity periods.
#韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨 #AMD完成历史最大美元债发行：融资47.5亿美元After OKB completes its scarcity process, what really needs to be proven is not whether it can still rise
$OKB The easiest way to attract traffic is through the imagination space brought by supply changes and platform ecology. After the X Layer upgrade, OKB was further defined as a network-native Gas asset. The one-time handling of historical buyback reserves and the migration of old ecological assets have also led the market to revisit its scarcity. For price traders, reducing supply is obviously straightforward; but for long-term valuation, supply is only the denominator, and what truly determines value is whether the numerator grows.
The common logic for platform assets in the past was that the larger the trading volume and the more users, the more valuable the token. This statement only tells half the story. If users only trade within centralized accounts and do not need to use OKB, there is a disconnect between traffic and token demand. The importance of X Layer is precisely to try to bridge this gap: making wallets, payments, on-chain transactions, and application usage all require the same native asset to bear fees and ecological functions.
Therefore, the most critical metric for OKB in the next phase is not just transaction volume, but how many real activities occur on the X Layer. Whether active addresses continue to grow, whether stablecoins are deposited, whether applications generate repeated use, whether developers are willing to maintain products long-term, and whether Gas demand comes from natural transactions rather than event subsidies. If these data improve, supply contraction will have economic significance; if on-chain usage does not keep up, the scarcity narrative easily turns into a chip narrative.
On the positive side, OKB has many starting points that new public chains do not have. The trading platform itself already has a huge user entry, wallet distribution, asset listing, and liquidity organization capabilities. New users do not need to learn a completely unfamiliar system from scratch. As long as the path between accounts and wallets is smooth enough, existing trading demand on the platform has the opportunity to migrate on-chain. This "users first, then build ecology" model is more efficient than relying entirely on developer subsidies to attract traffic.
At the same time, stablecoins and tokenized assets are becoming the core of on-chain competition. The real reason users are willing to stay long-term is often not a short-term hotspot, but the ability to transfer funds at low cost, manage assets, participate in yield tools, and complete cross-border settlements. If X Layer only replicates a batch of trading applications, it is difficult to form differentiation; if it can leverage the platform's compliant entry and liquidity to connect real assets, stablecoins, and wallet experience, OKB may transform from a platform equity asset into network means of production.
Risks must also be clearly stated. The deeper the ecology is bound to the platform, the higher the efficiency may be, but the market will also pay more attention to governance transparency, rule stability, and how value flows back. Users will ask whether Gas prices are reasonable, developers will ask whether the platform will change its support direction, and token holders will ask what real demands ecological growth actually increases. Any unclear rules or expectation gaps may quickly shrink the premium brought by scarcity.
Another risk is that low fees themselves are no longer a moat. Many networks can offer cheap transactions; what is truly scarce is the trust that users are willing to deposit large assets long-term. Security, cross-chain, audits, stablecoin depth, and application quality—any missing element will limit capital deposits. OKB's competition is not about who has higher TPS publicity, but who can convert platform users into long-term on-chain users.
So when observing OKB, I divide the metrics into three layers. The first layer looks at supply and on-chain Gas demand to judge whether the token economy is healthy; the second layer looks at stablecoins, wallets, and application activity to judge whether users only come once; the third layer looks at developers and high-value assets to judge whether the ecology can operate sustainably beyond a single hotspot. Only when all three layers improve simultaneously is there a true valuation upgrade.
My judgment of OKB is cautiously optimistic but conditional. Supply contraction solves the concern of "whether chips will continue to dilute," and X Layer solves the framework issue of "where the token is used," but the market ultimately needs to see usage intensity. Scarce assets without demand are just fewer chips; scarce assets entering a high-frequency network may form sustained value.
$OKB has already told the supply story clearly enough; next, it does not need to prove how scarce it is, but to prove that every OKB left in the market has more and more scenarios that must use it. #FinancialReportObserver: AI Infrastructure Earnings Reports Take the Stage
#FinancialReportObserver: AI Infrastructure Earnings Reports Take the Stage
1. Real-time Data
Nebius Q2 AI cloud revenue rose 514% year-over-year, stock price surged 34% in a single day; SanDisk data center business revenue increased 233% quarter-over-quarter; Microsoft and Google Cloud AI business revenues both maintained over 20% growth; $BTC current price 64080U, AI sector tokens slightly surged, decentralized storage $FIL and $RENDER strengthened simultaneously.
2. Underlying Core Logic
Major tech companies' earnings reports have been released one after another, AI computing power and storage businesses all exceeded expectations, long-term subscription orders for computing power lock in future revenue, confirming the continuous explosion of AI infrastructure demand; the traditional computing power industry is improving, driving on-chain decentralized computing power and storage themes to gain capital favor, but most companies continue large-scale investments in capacity expansion, posing risks of prolonged profit realization cycles.
3. Personal View
My trading style is cautious; I will not chase short-term AI-themed altcoins at highs, only allocate small positions to fundamentally solid computing power and storage tokens, and consider increasing positions after earnings season cools down and the market stabilizes, patiently waiting for the overall bull market to recover.
This is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice I was watching the Dusk consensus flow and the odd part wasn’t the reward split. It was the waiting. A generator can have a block ready, but that still doesn’t mean much until validation and ratification catch up. That small gap says more about the system than the percentages do. A provisioner isn’t useful because DUSK is sitting in stake. It’s useful because the node is online, synchronized, selected, and capable of doing the next piece of work when the network asks for it. Miss that window and the capital is there, but the security contribution isn’t.
That changes how I think about the incentives. More stake may improve the chance of participation, sure, but it doesn’t rescue weak operations. And separating proposal from acceptance forces operators into different kinds of responsibility instead of letting one role dominate the whole path to finality.
I’m less certain about what happens when participation gets much larger. More provisioners sounds stronger on paper, but more actors also means more coordination, more uneven infrastructure, more chances for someone to optimize around the reward logic rather than the actual job. That’s the bit I’d keep watching: under heavier activity, do operators stay responsive because the incentives work, or do they start finding cheaper ways to look responsive? #dusk $DUCK The US stock market has just triggered a large-scale short squeeze rally, and the crypto market quickly followed with gains.
Cooling initial jobless claims and weaker PPI data further strengthened market expectations for a Fed rate cut, driving US Treasury yields lower and forcing heavy short positions in tech and storage stocks into intense short covering.
This momentum then spread to the crypto market:
$BTC and $ETH received support, with ETH showing stronger resilience, supported importantly by ETF inflows.
Meanwhile, tokens linked to stocks, such as $xSNDK and $xSPCX, also saw significant gains; most small-cap Meme coins mainly experienced brief speculative rallies.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets