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🔥 宏观数据偏利好，但资金并没有全面回到山寨币 北京时间8月14日，市场真正值得关注的不是某个币短时间涨跌，而是宏观数据改善之后，资金是否真正开始重新进入加密市场。 7月美国消费者价格指数同比上涨3.4%，核心消费者价格指数同比上涨2.5%，均符合市场预期；7月生产者价格指数环比持平，同比上涨4.7%，整体通胀压力有所缓和。理论上，这种环境有利于降低市场对进一步加息的担忧。 但市场实际反应并不强。 比特币目前仍在6.3万美元附近震荡，宏观数据公布后没有出现持续放量上行，说明市场目前更缺的不是利好消息，而是持续的真实资金。 一、盘面资金行为 数据公布后的第一反应并不等于真实资金方向。 美国通胀数据公布后，比特币没有形成持续突破，随后重新回到6.3万美元附近。与此同时，美国现货比特币基金连续两日出现资金净流出，8月13日单日净流出约1.311亿美元，两日累计约1.922亿美元。 但资金并没有完全离开加密市场。 同期美国现货以太坊基金仍有约670万美元净流入，Solana相关基金也有约360万美元净流入。 这说明当前更准确的描述不是“资金全面撤离”，而是： 资金正在从比特币向部分其他资产进$SNDK exploded +15.8%, don’t pretend to be safe; $BTC -1.67% and $QQQ +1.16% appearing simultaneously is not a reversal, it’s just funds switching tables.
$BTC 62,628 -1.67% $ETH 1,867 -1.28%
$QQQ +1.16% $SPY +0.70% $IBIT -0.03%
$DXY -0.44% $GLD -1.47%
US Treasuries and Fed expectations continue to suppress valuations, the denominator side hasn’t loosened; crypto and ETFs are competing for risk appetite, $QQQ, $SNDK, $SKHYNIX—these AI/semiconductor sentiment switches set the tone once triggered.
$ETH is more resilient than $BTC, the smaller drop shows funds haven’t fully withdrawn; $QQQ +1.16% outpaces $SPY +0.70%, tech remains the main battlefield; $IBIT -0.03% didn’t follow $BTC -1.67%, a divergence emerged, someone is buying on the ETF side; $DXY -0.44% eased, without dollar pressure, risk assets can breathe; $GLD -1.47% retreated, safe-haven money is pulling out.
There’s a lot of info today, don’t rush to chase, wait for clearer signals from the market, whoever shows weakness first will set the direction.
#加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点
Crypto friends, today's market really confused Nini!
SNDK surged from around 1330 to 1579, a nearly 18% increase in a single day; BTC is still hovering around 63600, ETH around 1880, and gold has stalled near 4400.
Even more outrageous is SPCX—after a single comment from Musk, the stock price jumped directly from around 108 to 149, with gains exceeding 40% at one point! Nini's long position in SPCX took off right on the spot 🚀
The entry price for this position was 116.9. Last time it almost got crushed by the bears, but now it finally feels like "escaping from death" 😂
Why is there such a big difference in trends within the same market?
This rally in SanDisk is at least supported by performance. After the investor day, the market is re-trading AI storage, NAND supply-demand improvements, and a $14 billion buyback expectation. The last earnings report showed revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%. Now the management has further clarified the future path, and capital is revaluing accordingly.
A narrative backed by performance is completely different from pure emotional speculation. SanDisk proves its story with numbers, while SPCX relies more on stories to support its price.
Looking at BTC, CPI and PPI continue to cool down, but internal disagreements have started within the Federal Reserve. Without a unified interest rate expectation, capital naturally hesitates to bet lightly. So it's not that there are no opportunities now, but that the market is waiting for direction.
SanDisk has already started speaking with performance, SPCX is soaring on sentiment, and BTC is still waiting for the macro starting gun. Can the rebound in the Korean semiconductor sector lead to a recovery in risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market? What parts are already priced in, and what variables are yet to be reflected? The recent rebound in the Korean semiconductor sector, centered on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is supported by strong global demand for AI infrastructure and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). Analysts view this adjustment not as a weakening of fundamentals but as a repositioning realignment, and Korea's expansion of advanced chip manufacturing investment demonstrates a commitment to strengthening AI leadership. This is not merely a stock market issue but a signal that increases confidence in the global AI investment cycle. From a market structure perspective, the key is cross-market transmission. If the semiconductor sector's rebound improves investment sentiment across risk assets, there is potential for institutional capital to reflow into digital assets. However, in the short term, it should be noted that the concentration of funds into AI semiconductor stocks may compete with cryptocurrencies for capital allocation. This is not a zero-sum game but rather a matter of timing.Evening market analysis $BTC $ETH $SOL.
BTC 62,700, ETH 1,870, SOL 75.6. The dip at midnight never recovered, Binance hit a low of 62,969, HTX hit a low of 62,667. The psychological level of 63,000 held for five weeks, once broken, it broke.
Four blows hit the news simultaneously.
First blow, ETF funds are fleeing. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $131.1 million yesterday, the second consecutive day of net outflow, totaling $192 million. This week, a total of $332 million was sold. Fidelity FBTC saw $46.82 million outflow, BlackRock also withdrew. Money is flowing out.
Second blow, SEC meeting canceled. The "Regulation Crypto" rule proposal meeting originally scheduled for today was directly canceled last night by the SEC due to "unforeseeable scheduling issues," with a new date pending. The market waited a week for regulatory clarity but got continued uncertainty. The CLARITY Act vote in September was already uncertain, now both paths are blocked.
Third blow, the Strait of Hormuz tightens again. The US announced a possible "indefinite" maritime blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran has already restricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. This strait handles 20% of global oil transportation. Brent crude oil surged in response, reigniting inflation expectations.
Fourth blow, the 30-year Treasury auction yield surged to 5.22%, the highest since 2001. Holding non-yielding BTC, the opportunity cost is rising. The Fed's probability of a September rate hike jumped from 48% to 73% within a week.
On-chain also adds pressure. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $238 million, BTC long positions liquidated $41.75 million, shorts only $7.37 million — bulls are being targeted. BTC broke below the daily Bollinger Band lower bound at $62,507, technicals are fully weakening.
BTC 62,700, 62,700-62,850 is the first defense line, break it and look directly at 62,000. Above, 63,300-63,500 has become a wall.
ETH 1,870, ETH longs liquidated $24.99 million, even worse than BTC. Breaking 1,852 targets 1,800-1,830.
SOL 75.6, the lower edge of the 72-77 box is approaching. Exchange SOL net inflows have been positive for two consecutive days, selling pressure is accumulating.
Trading ideas (total position within 30%):
BTC: Try longs if 62,700-62,850 holds, stop loss at 62,200, target 63,300-63,500; if rebound at 63,300-63,500 lacks volume, short back, stop loss 63,800. If 62,200 breaks, wait for 61,500-62,000.
ETH: Try longs if 1,860-1,870 stabilizes, stop loss 1,830, target 1,890-1,900; short if rebound at 1,890-1,900 faces resistance, stop loss 1,920. If 1,850 breaks, wait for 1,800-1,830.
SOL: Try longs if 74.5-75 stabilizes, stop loss 73.5, target 76-76.5; short if 76-76.5 faces resistance, stop loss 77.5. If 74 breaks, avoid directly.
Once 63,000 breaks, the next support is 62,000. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 Ok tuned into the $SNDK NDK investor day.
So there was something beautiful that the team clarified. And that was steady state organic / internal growth.
The numbers:
- 15% production growth
- 27% technology improvement on bits
Compounding together, management has stated the core business grows at 50% annualized.
A free cash flow monster.#SandiskLongTermTargets #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 SanDisk surges, what is Wall Street really repricing?
After SanDisk's investor day today, the stock soared. Many people's first reaction might be: AI again, storage price hikes again.
But I think the truly important thing is not these.
In the past month, the market has been worried about one thing:
Now that NAND is so profitable, how much longer can it keep making money?
Because the biggest characteristic of the storage industry in the past has been its cycles.
Prices rise, profits surge, then the industry expands capacity, supply returns, and prices fall again.
So even though SanDisk's profits are currently very exaggerated, the market previously did not dare to easily count this profitability all the way to 2028 or 2029.
But today SanDisk directly answered this question.
The company provided a long-term model from FY2028 to FY2030:
Revenue will maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth annually, Non-GAAP gross margin around 80%, and more importantly—the operating margin target remains close to 75%.
This statement truly changed the market's expectations.
Because SanDisk's latest quarter gross margin has already reached 84.6%, with operating profit exceeding $7 billion. Previously, the market could interpret this as a cyclical peak, but now management tells you: we believe this ultra-high profitability is not just a short-term phenomenon in 2026, but can be maintained until around 2030.
So Wall Street started recalculating.
Here's a simple scenario.
Assuming FY27 revenue can eventually reach about $50 billion, then projecting forward with the company's long-term model of roughly 17% revenue growth midpoint:
By FY30, revenue could be around $80 billion.
If the 75% operating margin can really be maintained, operating profit would approach $60 billion.
Then, using the company's current approximate 15% tax rate and about 155 million diluted shares for rough calculation, theoretical EPS could even exceed $300, approaching $330.
It is important to note here:
$330 is not SanDisk's official EPS guidance, but a scenario the market deduces based on the company's long-term model presented today.
But this also explains why the stock price reacted so strongly today.
Because in the past, the market traded on the idea:
"SanDisk is very profitable now, but this is the top of the NAND cycle."
Today, the market begins to reconsider another possibility:
If AI really changes the demand structure for NAND, could this profit peak last longer than any previous cycle?
And the other information SanDisk provided today actually supports this logic.
The company has already signed long-term NBM agreements with 8 customers, covering about 50% of FY27 bit shipments, increasing to about two-thirds by FY28.
The significance is not just a few more big orders, but making SanDisk's sales, prices, and cash flow over the next few years more predictable, reducing the cyclical volatility that NAND investors have feared most.
Finally, there is a very direct positive:
The company stated that after completing business investments, it plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders in the future.
The most important change for SanDisk today is not just another AI story.
It is that management for the first time very clearly painted a profit framework extending all the way to 2030 for the market.
The market used to worry about when the cycle would end, now it begins to rethink: could this cycle be fundamentally different from before.
This is where SNDK is truly being repriced today; SNDK is evolving from a storage cyclical stock into an indispensable part of AI infrastructure! #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 Global major stock markets are collectively strengthening, with US stocks continuously hitting record highs, European indices repeatedly setting new records, and South Korean stocks also surging.
Recently, the global market logic has quietly shifted. US inflation data has been declining consecutively, the market has lowered its expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, and risk appetite among investors has broadly recovered.
The S&P 500 continues to surge, while Europe's STOXX50 and Germany's DAX simultaneously reach new highs; the Asian market shows even stronger momentum, with South Korea's KOSPI strongly rebounding driven by semiconductor leaders like Samsung and SK Hynix.
Behind the market rally are three converging main themes: easing pressure on interest rates, continuous realization of AI sector earnings, and the semiconductor sector returning to an upward trajectory.
What deserves deeper reflection now is not how much further the market can rise, but that global stock indices have all reached high-level ranges, with most positive news already priced in by the market.
Going forward, if inflation and employment data continue to improve moderately, capital will still have the motivation to push the market higher; however, if macro data fluctuates, high-level volatility will significantly increase.
The market never lacks opportunities, but the hotter the rally, the more important it is to avoid blindly chasing gains.
Risk warning: Sharing ideas only, not investment advice, no misleading guidance, comply with community guidelines! #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Both CPI and PPI cooled, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping from 55% to 35%, while Bitcoin remained stagnant at 63,000—I stared at the screen and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: inflation has fallen, rate hikes are in doubt, but the market's "big pig" hasn't even stepped on the pedal yet—the pigs are already eager to rush in. 📊 Let's start with the data: inflation has fallen, but not completely On August 12, the US July CPI was released: overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, down from June's 3.5%; Core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, matching the lowest growth rate since March 2021. The next day, PPI caught up: July PPI year-on-year was 4.7%, below the expected 4.9% and also below the previous 5.5%; Month-on-month unchanged, but the expected growth was 0.2%. Core PPI was 4.2% year-on-year, compared to 4.7% previously. CPI and PPI both weakened, easing inflationary pressure upstream and downstream. The market has lowered its probability of a rate hike in September—CME FedWatch shows it was 55% a week ago, now down to around 35%. But strangely: $BTC did not rise. BTC was quoted at $63,466, down 0.18% in 24 hours; ETH was at $1,885, up 0.2%. Cooling inflation = lower rate hike expectations = rising risk assets—this logic chain failed today. 🔍 Why? Because the Fed is fighting internally. Moderates: Richmond Fed President Barkin believes inflation mainly stems from tariffs and oil price shocks that "should subside." Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Kaplan was even more direct: "Yes."$SNDK is looking increasingly overheated after jumping from above 1200 last night to 1635 today with virtually no pullback, leaving late buyers exposed.
Last night’s Investor Day outlined an ambitious long-term strategy, including a targeted 80% gross margin for 2028–2030, with excess cash flow potentially directed toward share buybacks. That outlook helped attract buyers, while stop-losses on short positions added further momentum.
#SandiskLongTermTargets
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit Bloomberg: ETFs have seen over $100 billion inflows for 14 consecutive months, "passive money" has become the new normal, the crypto market needs to reprice
Latest from Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas:
Global ETF inflows have exceeded $100 billion in net monthly subscriptions for 14 consecutive months, with June alone reaching $191 billion (the second highest ever), averaging about $9 billion daily inflows. That month saw 214 new ETFs launched and a trading volume of $7 trillion.
In plain terms:
This is not a "risk appetite rebound," but rather U.S. households and institutions using ETFs like checking accounts — "paychecks arrive → buy VOO/QQQ → add on dips → never sell." VOO has attracted about $110 billion this year, becoming the first ETF to surpass $1 trillion in AUM.
Three implications for the crypto space:
1) The external liquidity pool is growing, not shrinking
The more stable the inflows into traditional equity and bond ETFs, the thicker the institutional base allocation to "alternative assets." BTC spot ETFs are just a tributary of this passive flood, but the denominator has grown.
2) "Cycle theory" continues to fail
Previously, BTC pricing relied on halving events plus retail FOMO. Now, there is a steady $100 billion monthly ETF inflow for 14 months. This explains why this BTC rally is less frenzied than in 2017/2021, but the pullbacks are also less brutal — some investors are dollar-cost averaging monthly, not just gambling annually.
3) AI/semiconductor ETFs come from the same pool of money
Balchunas mentioned that tech & thematic ETFs have attracted $100 billion this year, with AI, DRAM, HBM-related products launching in batches. This shows the external "tech bets" haven’t disappeared; they first flowed into stock ETFs, then spilled over into BTC, compute power coins, and RWA. The vehicle changed, but the money didn’t leave.
But this is not blind bullishness:
ETFs represent "slow money," not "catching a falling knife." If external factors like employment or inflation reverse and cause continuous redemptions, the first to be hit in crypto will be high-beta altcoins, not BTC.The valuation race between OpenAI and Anthropic is heating up, which is not only a showdown between two giants in the AI field but may also create short-term pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin by siphoning off market liquidity.
Valuation figures: An unprecedented capital showdown
OpenAI: Steady and strong, sprinting to a trillion: According to Bloomberg, OpenAI's current annualized revenue has exceeded $40 billion, doubling by the end of 2025. After a $122 billion funding round, its valuation stabilized at $852 billion, aiming for a $1 trillion IPO.
Anthropic: Rising from behind, targeting $2 trillion: Investors are more aggressive in their expectations, forecasting annualized revenue of $100 billion to $120 billion by year-end, a growth of over 10 times. After surpassing OpenAI in May, investors expect it to IPO in October with a valuation of at least $2 trillion, possibly challenging $3 trillion.
Transmission to the crypto market: liquidity siphoning effect
The opponent in this AI valuation race may well be the crypto market.
On one hand, massive funds are being drawn away. OpenAI's single funding round raised $122 billion, and Anthropic has raised nearly $100 billion this year. These huge funds mainly come from traditional venture capital, sovereign wealth funds, etc., which heavily overlap with mainstream crypto market capital. When the AI sector can accommodate such a large volume of funds, it inevitably squeezes incremental capital from the crypto market.
On the other hand, the IPO frenzy will intensify capital diversion. Tech giants like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are concentrating on IPOs, attracting the attention and funds of traditional capital markets to these "higher certainty" targets, which will relatively reduce the funds flowing to risk assets like Bitcoin.
Beware of the transmission risk of valuation bubbles
Currently, the valuations of these AI giants are largely based on a "recycling financing" model. Cloud providers are both investors and major clients, burning cash at an astonishing rate. OpenAI burned $3.7 billion in Q1 alone. Once capital market sentiment reverses and the AI bubble bursts, its impact will inevitably transmit to the crypto market, which is highly correlated with risk appetite.
When the scale of a single AI funding round exceeds the entire crypto market's weekly ETF inflows, this valuation race is unlikely to be positive for BTC in the short term. In a zero-sum game, the bigger the whales' appetite, the smaller the cake left for BTC.
That's all from Cige. Ponder it carefully. #OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 $BTC $ETH $SNDK $OKB Recently, the speed of new listings on OKX has indeed been quite intense; I counted, and it's dazzling to watch.
On August 13, DOS (DappOS) was listed, and spot trading officially opened at 18:00 in the evening. The project itself sounds impressive, claiming to be a Web3-oriented AI operating system. But honestly, nowadays every project leans towards AI; whether it really has substance, we need to observe first. On August 12, four stock perpetual contracts were listed: POPMART, XIAOMI, RIOT, and NET. Wow, four in one day—this is really squeezing contract users hard.
Looking further back:
· August 5, RE (Re Protocol) launched "Flash Earn Lite," with an OKB subscription pool reward of 80,000 RE
· July 31, SLX (Solstice) launched "Flash Earn Lite," with an OKB subscription pool reward of 200,000 SLX
· July 30, GRVT (Grvt) was listed
· July 10, SLX was listed for spot trading
Is this rapid listing good news for OKB? Logically, yes: staking OKB to receive new coin airdrops increases OKB demand; projects going live require staking OKB, locking liquidity; the richer the ecosystem, the higher the value of OKB as the "platform key." Data shows that on July 21, the total supply officially dropped to 21 million, and products like "Flash Earn Lite" are indeed empowering OKB.
But there are obvious downsides. The listing speed is too fast, project quality varies, some break below listing price immediately; airdrop rewards look big but each person gets only a little; with so many projects launching simultaneously, market funds are insufficient to support all, causing mutual dilution.
To be honest: new listings are indeed a good thing, showing the platform is active. But more listings don’t mean better listings, and better listings don’t guarantee profits. Don’t rush in just because of "new listings"—first weigh whether the project itself has substance, and then see if your position allows it. 🚨 GOOD INFLATION DATA — BUT $BTC & $ETH STILL CAN’T BREAK HIGHER
CPI eased to 3.4% YoY, PPI softened and expectations for easier Fed policy have strengthened.
Yet Bitcoin and Ethereum remain stuck.
Why?
Because markets price expectations before the headline arrives.
$BTC is hovering around $63.5K, with volatility compressed and $64K still acting as a major ceiling.
$ETH is near $1.89K, repeatedly testing $1,900 without producing a convincing breakout.
That muted reaction is the real signal.
Much of the softer-inflation narrative may already have been reflected in positioning before the data landed. Traders who bought ahead of the release can now take profits, while fresh buyers wait for confirmation.
There’s another reason for caution: roughly $140M in options are approaching expiry, potentially keeping short-term positioning tight.
📌 WHAT MATTERS NOW
Don’t just watch the inflation headline.
Watch:
• Spot volume
• Price reaction
• ETF flows
• Treasury yields
• BTC’s $64K breakout
• ETH’s $1,900 reclaim
Good macro data creates a favorable backdrop.
It does not guarantee an immediate rally.
If BTC and ETH can’t respond positively to supportive news, the market may still need stronger liquidity or a fresh catalyst before the next directional move.
Headlines create the narrative. Price action confirms it. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SandiskLongTermTargets 黄金还在不断往上顶，比特币却始终被困在区间里来回震荡。同一个市场，两种节奏，这不只是“谁强谁弱”的对比，更是资金正在按自己的逻辑重新排序。🌐 金价持续走强，背后是实打实的避险买盘和央行增储支撑。尤其在宏观不确定性居高不下的阶段，黄金作为硬资产的地位被反复强化，价格重心也不断上移。而比特币这边，更多是在等一个信号：全球流动性能不能真正转向宽松，风险偏好能不能重新抬升。 如果流动性环境改善了，市场的钱变多，黄金和比特币其实都有望从中受益。黄金有央行购金和避险需求托底，比特币则有估值弹性更大的特征。但反过来，如果恐慌情绪继续主导资金流，钱就会更集中地涌向黄金这种“不会违约、不需要信任”的资产，比特币就容易陷入“上有压力、下有支撑”的僵局。 所以现在真不该再把“黄金 vs 比特币”当作一个非此即彼的问题。更关键的视角是：驱动资金流向的底层逻辑到底是什么？🌊 是市场对美元实际购买力的重估？是全球央行储备配置方向的改变？还是风险资产本身的风险溢价要求？这些变量，才真正决定了钱会从哪里来、往哪里去。 从资金行为看，黄金的上涨建立在持续的现货买盘之上。尤其是以韩国央行为代表的官方机构继续买入黄金，$XGEV is showing strength near $1,050, gaining +0.26%. Buyers are quietly keeping pressure on.
EP: $1,025–$1,050
TP: $1,080 / $1,120 / $1,170
SL: $995#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温
Investing regularly in $SPY, the S&P 500, this wave is really a big win.
On August 13, the S&P 500 broke through 7800 points for the first time, setting a new all-time high again. Don't forget, it just crossed 7700 points on August 4, gaining another 100 points in just 7 days.
The core of this rally is actually just one thing: the market has started to trade again on the logic of easing rate hike expectations + earnings growth.
July's PPI came in well below expectations, cooling inflation on the production side, and market worries about a September rate hike have clearly decreased, so risk appetite naturally picked up again. At the same time, corporate earnings expectations have not faltered, and AI continues to contribute growth to tech giants.
So looking at $XSPY, the S&P 500, I’m not too hung up on round numbers like 7800 or 8000.
Whether the index can keep going up ultimately depends on one thing: whether companies can keep up their earnings with valuations.
If the revenue and profits driven by AI can continue to materialize, 8000 points or even higher is not that far-fetched, but if "valuations rise faster than profits" happens later, market volatility will obviously increase.
As for Reddit being included in the S&P 500, effective August 18, it is expected to bring passive buying from index funds. After the news came out, the stock price once surged over 10%. This also shows that market sentiment is indeed very hot right now.
Don’t chase the short-term rally, and don’t be afraid just because of new highs in the long term.
The truly comfortable strategy is not guessing whether it will go up or down today, but investing regularly and holding on, letting time and the earnings growth of American companies make money for you.
The toughest part about the S&P 500 might be those who keep shouting, "Can you still buy at such a high level?" Some are still waiting for a pullback, while regular investors have already hit new highs again.
Do you have plans to regularly invest in the S&P 500 or $XQQQ, the Nasdaq 100? Today at 16:00, the dual-currency financial product I tested matured, and the low buy of $63,000 USD for $BTC was executed. Actually, I was a bit conflicted at this time. Normally, today is the last trading day, and weekend fluctuations are usually not too large. Generally, if you want to maximize profits, placing a sell order at $63,000 USD is a good choice. If it executes, I effectively earn four days of interest for free, with the principal unchanged. If it doesn't execute, the interest is still maximized.
Especially considering that Trump tends to make some small moves every weekend, which is not friendly to the weekend market, so $63,000 USD seems like a good choice no matter what. But instinctively, I also feel that selling at $63,000 USD is too low, since I believe there is still a chance the price will return to $64,000 USD next week. Moreover, if Trump backs down today, the rebound tonight and tomorrow should be good as well.
After some hesitation, I ultimately decided to stick to my original plan and place a sell order at $65,000 USD. The loss is just the interest for the past three days. If I had chosen $63,000 USD, the interest for these three days would have been quite a bit, but at $65,000 USD, it's almost none.SEC cancels crypto rule meeting: Procedure pause does not mean regulatory exit The SEC originally planned to hold a public meeting on August 14, 2026, to discuss whether to introduce a customized issuance rule proposal for certain crypto asset investment contracts. Subsequently, the SEC issued an official notice canceling the meeting. A meeting cancellation first means that a set program node is paused; But regulatory issues themselves do not automatically disappear. Interpreting the cancellation of a meeting directly as "bad news falling through" or "sudden regulatory shift" is somewhat like turning off the meeting room lights as if the entire building has lost power. The market should look at the issues more clearly. First, whether the SEC will reschedule public meetings or adjust its agenda; This determines whether the issue remains visible on the regulatory agenda. Second, whether the relevant rule proposals will disclose specific texts and how their scope of application will be defined; What issuance, financing, or token arrangements the "Partial Crypto Asset Investment Contract" covers is far more critical than whether the meeting is held as scheduled. Third, if the stage of public consultation begins, what regulators should focus on often reflects which aspects of rule design are truly stuck in the design. Fourth, if the rules continue to advance, whether the actual compliance costs for trading platforms, custodians, project financiers, and tokenization businesses will change is the real hard metric affecting industry structure. From a mechanism perspective, rulemaking, enforcement boundaries, and market adaptation are not the same thing. Even if rule proposals appear, they may not immediately become constraints; Even if the final rule is implemented, the degree of pressure on different businesses will depend on asset attributesPPI HAS COOLED DOWN — BUT WHY HAS $BTC NOT PUMPED YET? 👀
The US July PPI rose only 4.7% YoY, below the forecast of 4.9% and sharply down from the previous 5.5%. In theory, this is a positive signal for risk assets like Bitcoin.
But $BTC's reaction has been quite disappointing.
Bitcoin is still around $63K and hasn't decisively broken above the $64K zone. In fact, BTC even dropped below $63K at times as spot ETF inflows remain weak.
This is the noteworthy point.
Good macro news has appeared.
PPI has cooled down.
CPI is not too hot either.
But BTC still can't pump strongly.
This suggests the current issue may not lie in inflation data but in liquidity and actual buying demand.
🎯 I am watching 3 zones:
$62K–$62.5K: important support zone. If held, BTC still has a chance to accumulate and rebound.
$63K–$64K: current consolidation zone. BTC needs to reclaim $64K to improve momentum.
$65K+: if breakout comes with volume, only then can we say BTC is truly regaining short-term uptrend.
Conversely, if $62K breaks, don't rule out the possibility of BTC continuing to seek liquidity around $60K. Some technical analyses also currently view $62.5K as a key support level.
$BTC 🔥 Is SNDK going crazy? They even dare to shout out an 80% gross margin. Going all in on long today!! This is just the opening leverage washout!!!!
$SNDK The most outrageous thing at the investor day isn’t AI, but these three numbers:
80% gross margin
75% operating profit margin
50% free cash flow margin
And these aren’t for this year, but the company’s long-term targets for FY2028—FY2030.
Even more aggressive, SNDK has already signed long-term contracts with 8 customers, expected to cover about 2/3 of shipments by FY2028.
This means what the market feared most before:
When NAND prices drop, profits collapse immediately.
Now this might be gradually mitigated by long-term contracts.
My judgment is simple:
What SNDK is hyping now isn’t "storage price hikes," but whether Flash can be revalued in the AI era.
But I won’t chase this kind of sentiment at its peak.
Do you think SNDK can keep rising, or has the 80% gross margin already overdrawn the future?
#SanDiskInvestorDayLongTermTargetsInFocus #SNDK #AIStorage Just grabbed the airdrop next door, failed the pattern, only sold 30u, missed out on a guaranteed profit.
BTC directly dropped below 63,000 tonight, now at 62,777, down 1% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 62,600. A few days ago it was still hovering around 64,000, now it’s dropped quickly.
What’s going on? Several things piled up.
The most direct is geopolitics.
Iran proposed six conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US directly threatened an indefinite maritime blockade. Brent crude oil was pushed to $87.16, inflation expectations rose again. The market was previously betting on cooling inflation, now with oil prices rising, all efforts are wasted.
The Federal Reserve is also not easing.
It has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive times, with hawks still arguing internally. The market originally hoped for some easing expectations before the end of the year, but now the earliest is the end of 2026. Risk assets are collectively under pressure.
Regulatory side is also causing trouble.
The CLARITY Act has been postponed to September, and the SEC’s originally scheduled “tokenization innovation exemption” plan for today was also temporarily delayed. The market was hoping regulatory clarity would bring benefits, but everything has been pushed back.
The funding situation is not good either.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net outflows for two consecutive days. Institutional buying hasn’t returned, so the pressure above remains. On-chain data also looks bad, whales are selling, and BTC inflows to exchanges are increasing.
Regarding liquidation data, $146 million was liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for 56%. Another batch of long chasers got buried.
Technically, once the key psychological level of 63,000 breaks, the next support is at 62,000. If that doesn’t hold, it’s 57,800. The order book depth is extremely shallow, with buy and sell orders combined totaling less than 1 BTC — with such liquidity, even a little selling pressure can create a big gap.
To be honest
CPI and PPI are both cooling down, but the market just can’t rise. Geopolitics + rate hike expectations + regulatory delays + ETF outflows, these four things combined, bulls simply can’t hold. Once 63,000 breaks, short-term sentiment will definitely worsen. My position isn’t heavy, I’ll first see if 62,000 can hold before making a move. Acting now is just gambling, no need.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK The crosshair pressed down on the LCD screen's quote waterfall, and TVL dropped from 167 billion to 75 billion—too long. The shooting range was so quiet it reminded you of the last bullet in the magazine waiting on the rifling.
I reached out to check the wind deviation. The word cryptocurrency is dead; what lies on the shooting line now is "on-chain finance," a gun with a safety plug. Cronje was right—the fuse mechanism is like putting a rubber bullet on every bullet before leaving the factory, and the risk board is like arms dealers welding a tin safety to the trigger. Immutable? No intermediary? That was the old Mauser rifle I used in Afghanistan ten years ago—bare-body sights, spare parts, all relying on the shooter's feel and the breath I was holding in.
And now? You pull the trigger, and the spring system decides when to release the hammer. The emergency control button was inserted from one point to the 0.2-second gap, and everyone was waiting for the moment the "circuit breaker" button lit up before entering to build positions. They think this is called disciplined operation, but in reality, it's an illusion after fitting a stabilization computer into the gun—a qualified shooter knows that any external aid is just the wind speed sensor on the other end of your gun lying.
The most authentic range weather report is TVL halved at 0.4x distance. This drop magnitude drew two clear ballistic lines through my scope: one was the market panic arc, and the other was a pure DeFi idealist's fall. But note, my fingers never left the trigger guard, because bullets from an industry perspective and real market-priced bullets are two different types of ammunition—the former can only hit paper targets, while the latter can penetrate flesh.
Cronje is like an old instructor marking rules on the shooting range walls, correcting every recruit by saying, "That's not shooting, it's playing with fire." Look at his gun, now a new model with a thumb-groove hammer. He squints in the shadows as all protocols still claiming to be pure DeFi treat risk committees like bulletproof vests. This is quite ironic. Real snipers never wear bulletproof vests, as that affects the amplitude of breathing fluctuations in the scope crosshair.
ETFs attracting funds for five consecutive weeks is another wind-biased data, with institutional funds entering the battlefield like a silent rifle. BTC has broken through the five-month downtrend line, which is a row of newly erected steel plates in the unpredictable testing ground. But I'm not planning to shift the wind, because the hidden advantage of DeFi fundamentalists has disappeared—when protocols come with emergency control buttons, this firing position becomes a tactical position for forcibly pushing in from the front.
Money is retreating, and in this half-life cycle of one quarter, the real fatal factor isn't the crash, but the stray bullets that still hit your head under the protection of the circuit breaker. Snipers know best that when the gun starts choosing what targets can and cannot be targeted, it becomes a prop for the range's discipline manager. You take it, and wherever you hide, it's just one of the 457 junk targets lined up for scrapping.
After loading, I turned off the automatic wind bias correction in the sight. On-chain finance means driving all the unlimited snipers into the same window and then removing the window frame. The crosshair in the scope swept across a blank space, the target disappeared, and I was waiting for a new, truly trigger-worthy target—the bullseye.
#影响周期·Quarterly #观点研报· DeFi governance #TVL·$167 billion→ $75 billion
#btcbreaks5monthdowntrend $CRO is gaining strength, trading near $0.04862 after a +3.34% move. Bulls are building pressure.
EP: $0.0475–$0.0486
TP: $0.0505 / $0.0525 / $0.0550
SL: $0.0460#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证
SanDisk has indeed been strong these past two days, jumping directly from over 1400 to 1600.
Just took a look at $SNDK, now at 1642, pushing up nonstop from over 1400.
The investor day was really impressive. Goldman Sachs directly set a target price of 2200, saying there’s still 44% upside. A guaranteed long-term order book worth $93.9 billion, gross margin guidance around 80% from FY2028 to FY2030, operating margin at 75%, and all excess cash flow returned to shareholders.
The data volume is also substantial, with data center revenue growing 437% in fiscal 2026, nearly $3 billion. Eight long-term contract customers cover about 50% of shipments in 2027 and two-thirds in 2028. This is no longer just hype; these are solid, locked-in orders.
However, with such a rise, chasing now feels a bit risky. Goldman Sachs says whether the long-term contracts can truly smooth the cycle still needs time to prove, and the long-term gross margin dropping from 84.6% to about 80% means exchanging some excess profit for certainty.
Better to wait for a pullback before considering entry; rushing in now and catching the peak would be awkward. 1️⃣ The merger of SpaceX and Cursor officially takes place today
SpaceX is heavily deploying AI computing clusters, creating market expectations: AI computing infrastructure will drive demand for flash storage procurement, which is sentimentally positive for Sandisk.
⚠️ Key point: Currently, this is just market speculation with no official supply orders announced, driven by thematic factors rather than actual performance fulfillment.
2️⃣ Reddit announced it will be included in the S&P 500 (effective 8.18)
This has no direct relation to the storage business, only boosting overall tech sector risk appetite, representing a large-cap sector dividend.
👉 Market review: This violent rebound partly stems from earlier induced short squeezes combined with the above AI thematic sentiment resonance.
Both pieces of news are expectation-based positives without concrete performance realization, so there is a risk of sentiment premium retracement.#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
The US July inflation data finally shows some signs of "upstream and downstream cooling together."
CPI year-on-year dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%, core CPI fell to 2.5%; the subsequently released PPI was also below expectations, declining year-on-year from 5.5% to 4.7%, with core PPI down to 4.2%. The easing price pressure on the production side means that companies' motivation to pass costs onto consumers in the future may decrease, which is a positive signal for subsequent inflation.
At the same time, initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, indicating the labor market is gradually cooling down. Overall, the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise rates immediately in September has indeed lessened.
However, the biggest misconception in the market now is to hastily treat "pausing rate hikes" as a certain answer just because inflation is falling.
There are still clear divisions within the Federal Reserve. Harker believes rate hikes need to continue currently, while Barkin says many believe the existing rates are sufficient to suppress inflation. The key debate is not whether inflation has fallen, but whether the pace of decline is enough to reassure the Fed.
Going forward, market pricing is likely to continue to fluctuate. If employment and consumption weaken simultaneously, the dollar and US Treasury yields may come under pressure, while gold, tech stocks, and BTC are more likely to gain support; if inflation rebounds again, rate hike expectations will quickly return.
The current data seems more like it has bought the Fed some observation time, but it has not yet written the conclusion for the September meeting.
#CPI #PPI #FederalReserve #BTC #USStockMarket1️⃣ The merger of SpaceX and Cursor officially takes place today
SpaceX is heavily deploying AI computing clusters, creating market expectations: AI computing infrastructure will drive demand for flash storage procurement, which is sentimentally positive for Sandisk.
⚠️ Key point: Currently, this is just market speculation with no official supply orders announced, driven by thematic factors rather than actual performance fulfillment.
2️⃣ Reddit announced it will be included in the S&P 500 (effective 8.18)
This has no direct relation to the storage business, only boosting overall tech sector risk appetite, representing a large-cap sector dividend.
👉 Market review: This violent rebound partly stems from earlier induced short squeezes combined with the above AI thematic sentiment resonance.
Both pieces of news are expectation-based positives without concrete performance realization, so there is a risk of sentiment premium retracement.BTC deep V reversal holds at 63,000, another hurdle to cross in August
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis
Brothers, yesterday BTC went on a "roller coaster" ride.
It first dropped to 62,846, then made a V-shaped rebound to 63,400. The price returned above 63,000, but the overall focus for August is actually slowly shifting downward. It was above 65,000 at the beginning of the month, now it’s fluctuating near 63,000.
The 63,000 barrier is becoming increasingly difficult to hold.
Core downward driver
The core variable driving this downturn is only one — oil prices.
The struggle over the Strait of Hormuz is far from over. Iran has clearly stated that unless the US ends the war and meets conditions, the strait will not reopen. Trump insists on a tough stance, demanding compensation from Iran. Both sides show no signs of compromise on the core issues.
The latest report from the International Energy Agency clarifies the situation: the global oil market daily deficit in Q3 will expand from 800,000 barrels to over 1.8 million barrels. Inventories are depleting rapidly, and any slight instability in oil prices will push them higher again. Once oil prices return above 85, inflation expectations will immediately heat up, and pressure for rate hikes will return.
Current macro situation
CPI and PPI data below expectations gave the market a breather, and the market’s pricing for a September rate hike has dropped from 55% to 35%. But internal divisions within the FOMC remain. Harker still insists on rate hikes, and there is an inflation report before September, so the situation could reverse at any time.
ETF capital is also retreating. Weekly net inflows have plummeted from $197 million at the start of the month to $33.79 million. Rekt Capital warns that August buying is clearly weaker than July, and the long-term support of the 200-week moving average is shaking.
AIX trading judgment
BTC short-term rebound to the 63,700-64,200 range; if a stagnation signal appears, you can lightly try short positions with a stop loss at 66,000 and targets at 62,500-61,500.
Long positions require waiting for a lower level; wait for stabilization signals at 60,000-61,000.
There is still a hurdle to cross in August, don’t rush to bottom fish.
💬 Chat in the comments: Can 63,000 hold?
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysisAugust 14｜BTC Data Evening Report
ETF Funds
On August 13, the total net outflow of US spot BTC ETFs was $131.1 million, marking the second consecutive trading day of net outflow; the two-day cumulative outflow was about $192.2 million. After the large outflow on August 10, institutional funds did not form a sustained inflow.
On-Chain Holdings (by address)
Continuous snapshots from August 13 to 14:
Under 10 BTC: net increase of about 538 BTC, latest total holdings about 3.4388 million BTC
10–100 BTC: net decrease of about 974 BTC, latest total holdings about 4.2212 million BTC
Over 100 BTC: net increase of about 657 BTC, latest total holdings about 12.4073 million BTC
Within over 100 BTC:
100–1,000 BTC: net decrease of 6,625 BTC, latest about 5.1675 million BTC
1,000–10,000 BTC: net increase of 7,638 BTC, latest about 4.2548 million BTC
10,000–100,000 BTC: net decrease of 356 BTC, latest about 2.2695 million BTC
Over 100,000 BTC: net change 0 BTC, latest about 715,500 BTC
The total amount over 100 BTC still increased, but there was a clear tier migration internally. The most notable change today is the decrease in 100–1,000 BTC and the simultaneous large increase in 1,000–10,000 BTC, which cannot simply be seen as consistent accumulation by large holders.
Contract Data
BTC open interest is about $48.41 billion, 24-hour contract trading volume about $50.49 billion, spot trading about $2.98 billion, with contract trading about 17 times the spot volume.
24-hour BTC liquidations were about $58.36 million. The funding rate remains mildly positive, about 0.0086% per 8 hours; approximately 65.1% of ordinary accounts are long, and recent liquidations have clearly concentrated on long positions.
Currently, there is no extreme leverage crowding, but there is a noteworthy combination: weak spot trading, retail accounts clearly biased long, yet prices continue to be under pressure.
Important News Today
US July PPI month-over-month was 0%, below the market expectation of +0.2%, and year-over-year dropped from 5.5% to 4.7%. After consecutive mild CPI and PPI readings, the market's probability of a September rate hike has dropped to about one-third. Macro interest rate pressure has clearly eased, but BTC has fallen below $63,000, indicating that the core factor limiting price is more related to the crypto market's own spot demand.
The US SEC originally planned to discuss new crypto asset exemption rules today, but the meeting was postponed without a new date; meanwhile, the Congressional Market Structure Act has also been delayed until September. Short-term regulatory catalysts have been further postponed.
Tether announced that its 2025 financial statements have completed a full independent audit for the first time. The audit results have not yet been released, so it will not directly bring new liquidity, but it has structural significance for USDT's long-term reserve transparency and institutional acceptance.
What to Watch Next
The most important current contradiction is: US inflation pressure is easing, but BTC is not rising; ETFs have had net outflows for two consecutive days, spot trading is only about $3 billion, and ordinary accounts are clearly biased long. This indicates that the current problem is not a lack of macro positive factors, but that the positives have not translated into spot buying.
If ETFs subsequently show sustained net inflows again, with a significant increase in spot trading and a decrease in the contract/spot trading ratio, this would indicate that macro improvements are beginning to transmit to BTC; if the macro environment remains friendly but ETFs still outflow and spot remains weak, then the current weakness is more likely due to insufficient BTC-specific capital demand.
Although on-chain holdings over 100 BTC increased by 657 BTC, there was an internal migration exceeding 7,000 BTC. Only if subsequent continuous snapshots still show net increases in the 1,000–10,000 BTC tier without sustained equivalent losses in the 100–1,000 BTC tier will this signal true concentration of holdings.
$BTC #星球日报 To briefly summarize tonight's retail data, Trump and Walsh are currently at their most passive stage.
If Trump continues to take a hard line against Iran, with August employment remaining weak, nominal inflation rebounding, and retail still negative, stagflation expectations cannot be avoided. Facing the high deficit environment in the U.S.,
if economic risks emerge, it poses risks to stocks, bonds, and currencies, and will also exacerbate Japan's economic risks. Therefore, this data actually favors Iran.
For Walsh, facing this data and the complex situation in August, his task force has not yet been successfully established. Does Walsh still dare to maintain a hawkish stance emphasizing rate hikes at this time? Even if emphasizing rate hikes is just to buy time and maintain high interest rates, Walsh needs to consider whether being too hawkish might scare the market. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 Everyone lays 2022 over 2026. That pushes the low months into the future and has people waiting on a date instead of a level. Flip it. Put 2026 over 2022 and the structures line up on price. The low sits where Bitcoin has already traded. Now look at the room. All of CT is bearish. The news is bearish. The consensus thesis is down. That has always been one of the better indicators, and it rarely points where the crowd thinks it does. Price $63,526. Lose $58K on a weekly close and my alignment iToday, $APR continues to rise. After careful study and much consideration, I stopped my short position. At the same time, I turned around and drove more. Why would I cut my losses? Because I think $APR might really be about to become a demon. Why did I turn around and go long? Because I don't want to miss this chance, even if it only has the potential to become a demon. —————————————————— This time, we won't look at contract data, because some contract data is already lost. So, what are we looking at this time? This time, let's take a look at whether the $APR token meets some characteristics of the Demon Coin. In my previous article, I summarized that demon coins have six main characteristics. The six main features are as follows: (1) Contracts are listed on multiple exchanges. (2) Cannot list spot trading on major exchanges. (3) The contract position on OKX must not be too low. (4) The launch time should not be too short. (5) The price of this coin is highly volatile. (6) Full circulating market capitalization should be appropriate. Let's see if $APR meets the requirements. First, contracts are listed on multiple exchanges. I checked, and indeed, contracts are listed on all the mainstream exchanges on the market. Second, spot trading cannot be listed on leading exchanges. This also fits. I remember only a relatively small exchange listed spot stocks. Third, the contract position on OKX cannot be too low. You can take a look at this; the open interest is still relatively high in the entire contract market. Fourth, go onlineBTC跌破63000，ETH和SOL为何没有跟跌？ 数据截至北京时间2026年8月14日20:03。 当前市场不是单边下跌，而是弱势中的结构分化。BTC约62849美元，24小时下跌0.95%；ETH约1877美元，仅下跌0.14%；SOL约75.51美元，下跌0.22%。 加密市场总市值约2.25万亿美元，24小时下降0.67%，成交额约482亿美元，BTC市占率为56.12%。市值前100币种剔除稳定币后，20个上涨、55个下跌、17个基本持平。 这组数据说明市场广度仍然偏弱，资金没有明显提高风险敞口，但抛压也没有完全扩散至所有主流币。 为什么ETH和SOL更抗跌？ BTC的4小时高点持续下移，价格从64000美元附近回落，并测试62685—62700区域，短线结构明显弱于前两天。 相比之下，ETH跌至1863美元附近后获得承接，目前仍在1870美元上方运行；SOL最低约75.08美元，也没有出现明显加速下跌。BTC下跌接近1%时，两者跌幅仍控制在0.2%左右，相对强度有所提升。 这可能意味着部分资金正在从BTC转向波动较低、位置相对靠下的主流币，也可能只是ETH和SOL的卖压暂时Unusual Movement Snapshot
$BICO crashed today, down 13.49% in 24 hours, with a volatility amplitude reaching 17.78 percentage points, directly slamming the market.
Current price is $0.026620, with a trading volume of $4.98M, volume at least doubled compared to the same period, indicating significant capital involvement.
The 24-hour high was $0.031780, the low was $0.026310, creating a 17.8-point range for trading operations.
Belonging to another sector, this round of selling is not an isolated coin event; at least three coins in the same track moved simultaneously, showing clear sector linkage effects.
Breaking down the selling pressure in layers: first, profit-taking concentrated on closing positions; second, smart money reduced positions by at least 20 percentage points ahead of time; third, retail investors panicked, causing a cascade of stop-loss selling.
Observation point: watch if large funds are absorbing during the decline. If trading volume continues to shrink below 30% of today's volume, then this is a real drop, not a shakeout.
In plain language: don't chase unusual movements; wait for absorption to finish and observe the structure. If the structure breaks, don't stubbornly hold on.
Data source: OKX public spot market, for reference only, not investment advice.
This is all the market action observed; the rest is up to your own insight. First, let's take a look at the price of $AKE. On the 4-hour chart, three massive bullish candles directly pushed the price up by 129%, causing heavy losses for the shorts. In the past 12 hours, the liquidation amount of $AKE reached $3,634,300, with long positions losing $672,300 and short positions losing $2,962,000. This giant whale showed no mercy—both longs and shorts suffered heavy blows, but the shorts were hit especially hard. Next, let's look at the on-chain data: last night, a large altcoin whale first transferred $1.58 million worth of $AKE tokens (a total of 230 million tokens) from a personal wallet to the #Gate custody wallet. Then, starting from 3 AM today, he directly moved these tokens to the #Gate exchange and ultimately exited with profits. Analysis shows that this whale redeemed 400 million $AKE tokens at $0.004 a week ago, worth $1.6 million at that time. They have currently sold 230 million $AKE, profiting $1.84 million, and still hold 170 million $AKE in their wallet. Today's on-chain information shows that 3 hours ago, a "big player" in the $AKE cluster distributed over $60 million worth of $AKE to 3 wallets, totaling 7.7 billion tokens. Currently, the "big players" in the $AKE cluster hold tokens worth $150 million, totaling 21 billion tokens, accounting for 92.5% of the current circulating supply (extremely strong control). $BTC Everyone's spending enthusiasm and prices are cooling down, which greatly reduces the likelihood of a rate hike in September.
But don't be too optimistic just yet. As long as energy prices rebound, the nightmare of stagflation will immediately return. Tonight's US stock market will soon reveal whether it is celebrating good news or worrying about a recession.
The latest retail data is a bit dismal, indicating that ordinary Americans are indeed spending less, and the economy is slowing down. On the surface, the dollar has fallen and gold has risen, and the market seems to have caught its breath, but behind this lies a major economic stall.
Right now, the crisis is barely covered up by cheap energy prices. If there is trouble in the Middle East causing oil prices to soar, the most troublesome stagflation scenario will directly unfold, and the stock, bond, and currency markets could all be smashed at any time.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to 28.8%, but as long as it doesn't fall below the 25% safety line, the alert hanging overhead is not considered lifted. To completely dispel the idea of a rate hike, we still need to see if subsequent data and oil prices cooperate.
Tonight's market movement is a weather vane, showing whether major funds plan to splurge to stop rate hikes or to exit early to guard against an economic recession.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 The probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from 50% to about 35%. The probability of pausing rate hikes exceeds 60%.
CPI and PPI both declined, so why is $BTC still stuck?
CPI dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%.
Core CPI dropped from 2.6% to 2.5%.
PPI dropped from 5.5% to 4.7%, below the expected 4.9%.
Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, higher than the expected 202,000.
All good news.
And BTC? Still stuck at $64,000.
It has tested $65,000 six times in a row, each time pushed back.
"Inflation is down! Good news! Let's go!"
You rush in, then get confused.
"Why isn't it rising yet?"
The problem lies in four words: as expected.
CPI year-over-year 3.4%, exactly as expected. Core CPI 2.5%, exactly as expected. PPI month-over-month flat, below the expected 0.2%.
What does the market fear most? It fears "no surprises" the most.
Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee said—
"CPI data that meets expectations neither forces hawks to reprice nor provides clear dovish catalysts."
In plain language:
The data isn't bad enough for the Fed to urgently pivot dovish (cut rates).
The data isn't good enough for the Fed to urgently pivot hawkish (raise rates).
The market's expectations for September remain unchanged; no clear direction has emerged.
So what did this data actually do?
It did only one thing—it bought the Fed more time.
The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 50% to about 35%. The probability of pausing rate hikes exceeds 60%.
But the market doesn't want a "pause in rate hikes."
The market wants "rate cuts."
That's a big difference.
"Pause in rate hikes" = interest rates are still high, liquidity remains tight. "Rate cuts" = the faucet opens, money flows in, and BTC can fly.
One is a pause button, the other is a starting gun.
If you press the pause button, the runner just takes a breather. If you pull the trigger, the runner sprints out.
What has the market received now? The pause button.
Even more painful—trading volume has dropped to the lowest level since 2019.
Glassnode said: "The weak reaction to good news itself is a warning."
What does that mean?
It means demand has truly disappeared.South Korea's central bank buys gold again after thirteen years—has BTC's biggest rival appeared?
Gold prices have recently stubbornly held above the high range of $4380, and even more notably, South Korea's central bank has re-included gold ETFs in its allocation list after a full 13 years. Wall Street investment banks have also raised their year-end gold price targets.
Many people see sovereign central banks aggressively buying gold and start worrying whether this will drain liquidity from the crypto market, even questioning if Bitcoin's (BTC) digital gold narrative will be completely overshadowed by physical gold.
My core conclusion is straightforward: central banks buying gold is not bearish for Bitcoin at all. On the contrary, it is the ultimate signal of global sovereign capital voting no confidence in the fiat credit system, which passively raises the long-term valuation ceiling for BTC significantly.
Why do I say this? Once we clarify the macro capital reservoir logic, you'll understand that the two are not a zero-sum game.
Central banks buy gold because traditional sovereign credit assets, represented by U.S. Treasuries, are irreversibly losing their "risk-free" status under the impact of massive fiscal deficits and geopolitical weaponization. As trillion-dollar sovereign institutions, they need an absolutely neutral, counterparty-risk-free, non-credit hard asset to stabilize their portfolios.
Gold is the hard currency of the physical world, serving as the defensive base for trillion-dollar sovereign capital and conservative pension funds.
Bitcoin, however, is the ultimate hard currency of the mathematical and digital world. It has an absolutely fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, borderless instant settlement capabilities, and higher elastic leverage.
If I had to allocate only one hedge asset for the long term right now, between physical gold and BTC, I would still assign the core weight to Bitcoin.
Because gold's scale is already extremely large, a 20% rise would be an epic macro year, while Bitcoin, as a highly elastic digital asset, meets the excess return demands of the new generation of global high-net-worth individuals and cutting-edge tech institutions beyond mere asset preservation.
The overall water level is rising. When physical gold pushes the entire non-sovereign hard asset price reference frame to a new historical dimension, Bitcoin—with its higher deflationary hardness and liquidity elasticity—its spillover value is just beginning to emerge.
---
💬 Here's a thought question for those doing macro asset allocation in front of the screen: Against the backdrop of ever-expanding global fiat debt, if you could only hold one hedge asset long term over the next five years, would you choose physical gold without hesitation or firmly embrace digital gold BTC? Share your reasons in the comments.
The above content represents only personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 Everyone, this SanDisk investor day is more worth watching than the earnings report itself.
The management provided a fairly clear set of long-term figures: from FY2028 to FY2030, revenue is expected to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, adjusted gross margin around 80%, operating margin about 75%, and they plan to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. Multi-year customer agreements will cover more NAND shipments to reduce storage cycle volatility. Putting these numbers together gives a clearer picture than quarterly guidance.
An 80% gross margin means SanDisk believes it can maintain pricing power for its products long-term; a 75% operating margin means the cost structure will continue to optimize. Coupled with 100% excess cash returned to shareholders, this combination is indeed rare in a cyclical industry. After the news, SanDisk's after-hours trading rose slightly, not by much; the market responded positively but without excessive excitement.
But to be honest, the long-term direction is favorable, the fundamentals of AI storage demand haven't changed, and SanDisk's industry position remains intact. However, to realize these long-term goals, it depends on when NAND supply and demand see a substantial recovery, and whether high-bandwidth flash memory can become a new growth curve after 2027. These issues can't be solved by a single investor day; we need to watch how the upcoming quarterly data unfolds. $SNDK $SPCX $BTC 从闪迪近期价格异动，谈谈存储赛道的交易心得 近期存储板块热度再度升温，闪迪（SNDK）走出了极具冲击力的行情，美东时间8月13日单日大涨13.67%，收盘站上1528美元，盘中最高触及1580美元，成交量大幅放量，远超近期平均水平，带动全球存储个股集体走强。这一轮急促的拉升，不只是简单的资金炒作，也给身处周期赛道的交易者，带来了许多值得复盘的思考。 很多人最初对闪迪的印象，还停留在U盘、存储卡等消费级产品，自2025年从西部数据分拆独立上市之后，它转型成为纯粹的NAND闪存龙头，业务重心转向AI数据中心企业级存储，市场的定价逻辑，早已发生根本性改变。本轮上涨的导火索来自投资者日释放的重磅信号：长期客户产能锁定协议、清晰的长期财务指引、投资后剩余现金全额回馈股东的分红回购方案，让资金重新评估它的成长天花板，原本的周期股属性，被叠加了AI成长的预期溢价。 回看盘面可以发现，闪迪的股价从来不是单边平稳上行。在本轮大涨之前，行情反复震荡，时有快速回撤，盘中剧烈的多空博弈是常态。这就引出我的第一份交易感悟：周期股的拐点，永远伴随着巨大的情绪噪音。存储行业兼具强周期与AI成长双重属性，BTC fell below $63,000, and the real issue is not "how much it dropped," but that buying pressure is disappearing.
The low once hit $62,650, and what’s more alarming is that spot trading volume has dropped to extremely low levels. The market is not experiencing a panic-driven volume sell-off; instead, it has entered a very quiet compression phase—without enough buying support, prices can easily be pushed down further by a small amount of selling.
Rekt Capital also warns of a long-term signal: BTC buying strength in August is clearly weaker than in July, with support near the 200-week moving average declining. In July, there was still active capital absorbing supply here, but by August, market sentiment has shifted from "buying the dip" to "wait and see."
On-chain funds are also bearish. Over the past week, large holders have overall reduced their positions, while BTC inflows to exchanges have increased, indicating potential selling pressure is building. There is even a whale adding to BTC short positions for the fourth time, with total short positions now exceeding $110 million.
The ETF side is also faltering. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $131 million yesterday, marking the second consecutive trading day of outflows. Among them, ARKB had an outflow of about $58.81 million, breaking a five-day streak of net inflows.
The external environment is also uncooperative. Tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate, suppressing risk appetite; meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high, and expectations for rate cuts and liquidity easing have yet to materialize.
So now I’m mainly watching two levels:
Below: $60,000
This is the most important psychological and structural support after losing $63,000.
Above: $65,000
If the bulls can’t reclaim $65,000, it will be hard to prove this is just a normal pullback.
In summary:
The biggest danger for BTC now is not "someone dumping," but "no one stepping in to buy."
$63,000 has been lost; next, watch if there is real support around $60,000; before $65,000 is reclaimed, I won’t easily consider any rebound a reversal.
Data reflects sentiment, but capital returning is the real trend.
DYOR.$ZEC ZEC is down to $484, the privacy narrative can't save the price.
Down 1.3%, vacant below $500. Good news? The SEC probe is over, Grayscale filed for a ZEC spot ETF — this should be bullish. But no effect on the market.
Bigger problem: EU AMLR in 2027, threat of delisting from exchanges. Zcash's "optional privacy" might avoid this, but at the cost of reduced liquidity.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC ZEC at $484, privacy narrative can't save it.
Down 1.3%, stuck below $500. Good news? SEC probe closed, Grayscale filed for ZEC spot ETF — compliance breakthrough should be bullish. But the market isn't biting.
Bigger issue: EU's AMLR kicks in 2027, threatening delistings across exchanges. Zcash's "optional privacy" might dodge the bullet, but at the cost of shrinking liquidity.
329M+ private txns on-chain, tech improving — yet capital fears regulation more.
$BTC $ETH ETH hovers sideways at $1,892, the gap in expectations behind the surface consolidation How should we interpret the market where the staking ratio hit a new high and ETF funds are leaving simultaneously? Ethereum is continuing to move sideways around the $1,892 level. After failing to break through $1,924, it remains in a retracement zone and appears unable to decide on direction. On the surface, mixed signals appear, but breaking down the actual price as a benchmark for capital action makes it clearer what the market is putting in the price first. What happened? Looking at the bullish factors, Ethereum's staking ratio hit an all-time high of 34.4%. This is a structural factor that continuously reduces the circulating supply. On the same day, a whale withdrew 4,650 ETH (about $8.77 million) from exchanges like Coinbase within one hour, which is interpreted as a movement of funds for holding purposes rather than simple trading. On the other hand, spot ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $14.6 million the previous day, especially for BlackRock customers. Here's a puzzle worth sitting with for a minute. The July inflation numbers landed exactly where optimists hoped: consumer prices up just 3.4% year-over-year, producer prices flat on the month after barely moving in June. On paper, that's the kind of print that should have traders celebrating — softer inflation usually means a friendlier Fed, and a friendlier Fed usually means risk assets catch a bid. Instead? Bitcoin has been drifting between roughly $62,800 and $65,000 over the past week, unab$ZEC ZEC fell to $484, with the privacy narrative unable to support the price.
It dropped 1.3% intraday, continuing to hover below 500. The news is actually not bad—SEC investigation ended, Grayscale submitted a ZEC spot ETF application, and privacy coin compliance breakthroughs should have been a major positive. But the market is not buying it.
What’s more troublesome is that the EU AMLR regulation will take effect in 2027, posing a risk of comprehensive delisting of privacy tokens from exchanges. Although Zcash tries to avoid this through its "optional privacy" design, the compliance cost is liquidity contraction. On-chain privacy transactions have exceeded 3.29 million, and technology and infrastructure are advancing, but funds clearly care more about the uncertainty under regulatory pressure.
All the positives have been priced in as negatives; can the 490 support hold? #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 $BTC $ETH I noticed a particularly obvious change in the crypto world right now. Almost no one shouts about the "halving cycle" every day. In the past, when analyzing Bitcoin, three sentences were inseparable: "How many days until the halving?" "The main upward wave will enter the 12 months after the halving." "According to the previous cycle, where should we be now?" And now? What everyone watches every day is: CPI. Non-agricultural. Federal Reserve. U.S. Treasury yields. The US dollar. War. ETF capital flow. Even a Jackson Hole speech might make the market more nervous than "how many days until the next halving." It's not that everyone forgot about the halving. I think it's more likely: Bitcoin has switched games. Previously, it was primarily a crypto asset driven by supply shocks. Now, it increasingly resembles a global macro asset traded 24 hours a day. First, consider a particularly simple question: before the 2024 halving, about 900 BTC will be generated per day. After halving: about 450 coins. In other words, about 450 new BTC are added each day. At the current price of just over $60,000, the annual reduction in new supply value is roughly around $10 billion. That sounds like a lot. But here's the question: What size is Bitcoin now? Trillion-dollar assets. ETFs, listed companies, funds, institutional capital—a major round of allocation changes can bring billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars in and out. At this point, mining out $10 billion worth of BTC annually still makes sense. But that's enoughAfter SanDisk's Investor Day, the market is truly trading on the “long-term goals”
After the August 13 Investor Day, the biggest change for SanDisk is not the short-term earnings outlook, but that management has officially provided a long-term financial framework for FY2028-FY2030.
The company expects revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth over the next several fiscal years? No, it’s mid-to-high double-digit growth, while targeting a non-GAAP gross margin of about 80%, operating margin around 75%, and free cash flow margin about 50%. The company also stated that after completing business investments, it will return 100% of remaining cash to shareholders. 
This is why the stock price continued to surge after Investor Day—the market finally got an answer:
SanDisk believes this AI storage cycle is not just a short-term price rally, but an opportunity to convert into high-profit growth over the coming years. 
What’s truly worth noting are three changes:
First, AI storage demand is being extended.
SanDisk expects revenue to still maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth in FY2028-FY2030, and the company has already locked in a significant portion of future demand through multi-year customer agreements. By FY2028, these agreements are expected to cover about two-thirds of bit output. 
This means the company is trying to turn traditional NAND’s cyclical revenue into more stable long-term orders.
Second, the 80% gross margin is what really excites the market.
The biggest pain point in the storage industry has been cyclicality.
When the market is hot, prices soar and profits surge; once supply recovers, profits quickly compress again.
But if SanDisk can truly maintain about an 80% non-GAAP gross margin in the future, the market’s valuation logic will change:
From a cyclical stock → to an AI infrastructure growth stock.
This may be the most important valuation restructuring from Investor Day.
Third, the market is starting to trade 2028–2030, not the next quarter.
This is also where caution is most needed now.
The stock price has already priced in a lot of optimistic expectations. SanDisk’s gains this year have been very exaggerated, and on Investor Day it rose more than 13%, showing a very strong market reaction to the long-term goals. 
So the real question going forward is not:
“Is SanDisk’s fundamental performance good?”
The answer is fairly clear—yes.
The real question becomes:
“Can the company deliver on the 80% gross margin and mid-to-high double-digit growth?”
So my judgment on SanDisk is:
Industry logic: still bullish.
AI data center expansion, NAND demand growth, long-term customer agreements, and high-profit margin targets all reinforce the long-term bullish logic for storage.
Valuation logic: entering a high-expectation phase.
The market is no longer rewarding based on “earnings beating expectations,” but pricing based on “whether it can continue to beat expectations over the next few years.”
Therefore, the most likely scenario ahead is:
Fundamentals remain strong, but the stock price will fluctuate wildly due to overly high expectations.
In summary:
What Investor Day truly changed is not how much SanDisk can earn today, but that the market is starting to believe it can keep making money for years to come.
This is clearly positive for the long-term logic, but for short-term trading, the higher the expectations, the lower the margin for error.
Going forward, I will focus on three things: fulfillment of long-term orders, whether gross margin can stay high, and whether AI storage prices can remain strong. If all three can be delivered, then the logic behind this rally will truly hold. $BTC #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 Today (August 14), the top short address 0x66f8 on Hyperliquid pulled off a textbook-level conversion. Not only did he close out a short position worth 2,136 BTC, leaving with a profit of $1.65 million, but at the moment he was safe, he leveraged 40x to enter the bulls' camp, opening a long position of 200.82 BTC (about $12.74 million).
1. As the biggest short on Hyperliquid, 0x66f8 previous holdings were themselves a major mountain weighing down the market. He chose to close his position of 2,136 BTC on August 14, indicating that at his scale, further downward squeezing out water is extremely cost-effective. The $1.65 million profit was a "take-profit" for him, but for the market, it sent a major signal: the big players believe the buying support below is too strong to be bitten.
2. For a position of $12.74 million, daring to use 40x leverage means that as long as BTC drawdown is less than 2.5%, that $10 million will instantly disappear. There are only two explanations for this level of radicalism:
* He may have sensed some upcoming macro positive announcement (such as policy expectations after CPI) or the entry of major institutions.
* He was well aware of his reputation; once the order was posted, analysts across the entire market were watching closely. He was using himself