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Last time during SanDisk's earnings report, we even did an all-night live stream to watch it.
At that time, there was a question: why did SanDisk's stock fall despite a good earnings report?
SanDisk's earnings on August 5th were actually very strong, but the stock still fell nearly 8% after hours.
The main reason was that some data agencies had higher expectations for profit guidance.
The market's real concern was whether NAND prices and profit margins have already peaked.
However, at yesterday's investor conference, management directly addressed this core concern.
The adjusted gross margin is expected to remain around 80%, and the adjusted operating margin is expected to be about 75%.
The adjusted free cash flow rate is about 50%, with plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders.
These profit margin and cash flow targets clearly exceed the valuation framework of traditional cyclical storage companies.
The market is beginning to reprice SanDisk from a "cyclical stock" to a "high-profit AI infrastructure platform."
Additionally, SanDisk has signed new long-term commercial agreements with eight customers,
covering about 50% of production for FY2027 and about two-thirds of production for FY2028.
The macro environment is a booster, not the main reason, as mentioned yesterday when discussing gold.
Whether it's this month's non-farm payrolls or CPI, including last night's PPI, all are positive data.
Although the PPI decline is mostly due to lower energy inflation (crude $oil),
service sector inflation remains but has partially eased market concerns about further Fed rate hikes.
Currently, the short interest ratio exceeds 70%, shorts are clearly crowded, waiting for a pullback to go long! #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 $SNDK Ship Transit in Hormuz Begins to Recover from the Lowest Point but Still Far from Normal.
The average daily outbound transit through Hormuz (7-day MA) plunged to a low of 3.6 million barrels/day in early August, then rebounded to 6.3 million barrels/day as of August 11, but this is still less than half the late July level (12.6 million barrels/day).
As of August 12 (August 13 data not yet available), the official status remains "effectively closed" for commercial shipping: only 8 ships transited on August 8, compared to the normal ~73/day, with Brent holding at US$89.12.
This partial recovery is not due to the crisis easing, but because ships are starting to find detours: the "shadow fleet" tankers switched to compliant routes (10 tankers last week vs 6 previously), and most significantly, ship-to-ship transfers OUTSIDE Hormuz, with 12 satellite-detected exchanges in just one day (August 10) along the Oman-UAE coast.
Trump announced a new round of negotiations but was immediately denied by Tehran; top Iranian security officials insist that reopening the strait is conditional on the US accepting their extensive demands.
The real economic impact is already measurable: global container volume lost 1.8-2 million TEU in H1 2026 due to this disruption, regional imports dropped 21%, exports fell 31%.
🔸What Is the Impact on the Crypto Market?
This update reinforces the thesis we have repeatedly discussed: this crisis is ongoing without any real diplomatic resolution.
As long as Hormuz is not truly secure, the risk premium on energy prices remains elevated, and this continues to be one of the reasons central banks face structural dovish headwinds for risk assets including crypto, which most likely will not disappear anytime soon.
#HormuzPressureRises SOL as a whole remains trapped in a narrow range. 75 is the near-term support that must hold today; if it breaks below again, look to 74. On the upside, it needs to first reclaim 76, then break through 77, and only after stabilizing above 77 can we discuss the area around 78. No independent project news sufficient to change SOL's pricing was found today; on-chain minting, protocol planning, and old upgrade narratives cannot be directly equated with new buying pressure. Until the BTC direction becomes clear, SOL is better suited as an indicator of market resilience rather than a news-driven coin to preemptively position in.明天解锁的不只是筹码，还有那些等了很久的耐心。 你有没有想过，一个横盘很久的币，可能根本不是没人要，而是所有人都在等同一个时间点？ $LAB 明天的解锁，大概是这周最值得盯的单一事件了。不是因为它会暴涨，而是它像一面镜子，照出这波行情里到底还有多少真实的承接力。 先看清楚现在的位置。$LAB 已经在窄幅区间里磨了好几周，交投清淡，关注度低，几乎没有自己的叙事在推动。这种安静，放在解锁前夜，反而比热闹更值得琢磨。因为解锁意味着流通供给增加，而价格还没提前定价，那明天的盘面就是一次供需的裸考。 之前 $BEAT 已经演示过一次，信心一旦松动，盘口能薄到什么程度。那种瞬间抽走流动性的感觉，不是下跌本身，而是你想卖的时候没有接盘的人。这才是解锁最危险的地方——不是抛压，是抛压来了之后，下面根本没有垫子。 $BICO 如果市场关注度继续降温，也可能陷入类似的脆弱状态。它不是基本面出了问题，而是无人问津的时候，任何一点卖压都会被放大。 另一边，$ALLO 的相对强度倒是值得注意，说明还有资金愿意在板块里挑票。$APR 则仍然处于极度敏感的状态，消息一碰就动，但这种行情里追涨杀跌，往往是为别人抬轿子OKB has risen these past two days.
The price climbed from around $90 straight up to $104, with a daily increase of over 9%. The bullish candlestick on the chart is quite eye-catching, breaking the previous sideways stalemate around $86. Sometimes the market moves like this—you focus on macro data waiting for direction, but it moves quietly in the corner first.
This rally has a clever touch. On-chain data shows that the $70 to $85 range was all trapped positions. The price had been lingering below $90, seemingly shaking off baggage deliberately. Once it truly broke through $100 with volume, there was little resistance up to $120—light selling pressure made it easy to push up. The funds moving at this point seem well calculated.
On the news front, OKX just announced: a one-time token burn on August 15, and a contract upgrade on August 18, after which minting and burning functions will be removed. The total supply of 21 million tokens is locked, plus regular burns, making the deflation story a solid rationale in the current market.
The likely next script: riding this positive momentum to first absorb the historical trapped positions, then probing the $120 level, and even the $170 to $190 vacuum zone. Of course, this depends on the overall market not faltering. Platform tokens have always been the face of exchanges; this rally at least shows it has strong confidence itself. $OKB SanDisk surged sharply in pre-market trading, and the market finally understood a logic:
What the AI era truly lacks may not be GPUs, but storage
Tonight, SanDisk SNDK surged significantly in pre-market trading, and many people's first reaction was:
"Is there some new news driving this?"
But this time, the core of market trading is not a simple positive news, but a change in investment logic.
First, the market re-recognizes AI storage demand.
In the past few months, the biggest controversy around storage stocks has been:
AI computing power demand is strong, but can storage also continue to benefit?
SanDisk's recent long-term plan has changed the market's view.
The company expects revenue to maintain mid-to-high single-digit to double-digit percentage growth in the coming years, while maintaining very high profit levels.
This means the market is beginning to believe:
SanDisk may no longer be just a traditional cyclical storage company, but could become part of AI infrastructure.
Second, institutions are starting to revalue the storage industry.
Previously, SanDisk's stock price experienced significant fluctuations due to market concerns about the peak of the storage cycle.
But with the continuous growth of AI data center demand, investors are refocusing on the long-term value of NAND, enterprise-grade SSDs, and high-performance storage.
Simply put:
The market used to view SanDisk through the lens of the storage cycle.
Now the market is viewing SanDisk through the lens of the AI data growth cycle.
These two valuation logics are completely different.
Third, capital is flowing back into AI hardware.
Recently, the overall sentiment in the US tech sector has improved, AI-related stocks have regained capital attention, and SanDisk, Nvidia's supply chain, and storage chip companies have all strengthened together.
This indicates the market is re-trading a viewpoint:
AI not only needs GPUs but also requires massive storage.
Without storage expansion, AI data centers cannot continue to scale.
However, it should be noted.
After the rise, SanDisk's valuation is no longer low.
What will determine whether it can continue to rise in the future is not market sentiment, but three key factors:
First, whether AI storage demand continues to grow.
Second, whether storage prices remain strong.
Third, whether the company can deliver on profit margins.
So tonight's rise in SanDisk is essentially not an ordinary rebound.
It is the market re-pricing:
Is SanDisk a cyclical stock?
Or is it an infrastructure company for the AI era?
This is the real logic behind the stock price increase. $SNDK #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 8月14日，存储赛道上演了一场教科书级别的多空易位。根据 TradingBeats 的最新监测，存储板块的几个显眼包——MU（美光）、SNDK（闪迪）、SKHX 和 SKHY 集体暴动，尤其是 SNDK 那 18.7% 的涨幅，合计 16.52 亿美元 的成交额告诉我们：这绝不是小打小闹，这是大资金在玩命。
这次反弹中最具戏剧性的，莫过于那 4 名代表性空头的含泪回补。
你要知道，在交易员的逻辑里，空头回补往往不是因为他们看好后市，而是因为疼。当价格穿过他们的心理防线，为了保住剩下的本金，他们必须在市场上买入筹码来平掉空单。这 1541.9 万美元 的买盘，说白了就是空头在绝望中被迫贡献的流动性。
159.8 万美元 的亏损，是他们为存储板块反弹已死这个错误判断交的学费。最讽刺的是，正是因为这些空头扎堆止损买入，才把价格进一步推向高潮，硬生生地把反弹推到了多头的止盈区。
如果说空头的操作是被迫营业，那么“聪明钱”0x0ad 的操作就是冷酷离场。
监测显示，这位老猎手已经清空了 SNDK、SKHX 和 KIOXIA 的所有多单。请注意，是“清空”，而不是“减仓”。🔸Market Highlight: PPI & Jobless Claims US (July)
🔸PPI (MoM) July recorded (0.0%), below consensus (0.2%) but slightly up from (-0.1%) the previous month, indicating inflationary pressure from the producer side remains relatively contained.
🔸Initial Jobless Claims rose to 209K, above consensus 202K and also up from 200K the previous week, signaling an early weakening in the US labor market although the level is still historically low.
🔸Impact on the Crypto Market?
Because PPI missed expectations downward and jobless claims rose above consensus, this release brings a disinflationary signal from the producer side as well as an early sign of labor weakening, a combination that tends to slightly ease The Fed's hawkish pressure.
This condition has the potential to maintain short-term risk-on sentiment for $BTC and crypto, although the market will likely still wait for confirmation from the next labor data, and the risk of rising oil prices due to disruptions in Hormuz remains a threat that could reverse this disinflation narrative.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #AMDLargestBondDeal Too good to be true? No, this is exactly the scenario I've experienced and recognized. $APR jumped overnight from 0.2 to 0.63, tripling — a surge that excites people, but for those who've been in the game, it's all too familiar. This boom is very likely driven by contract capital manipulation. Position volume soared to 25.45 million USD, with net inflow over 4.8 million — clearly someone is using low-cost funds to pump the wave. For small-cap coins, just a new story and a few million USD can create an effect. No gMajor US banks are collectively going on-chain. Is your wallet ready to welcome new users?
Wells Fargo announced it will launch tokenized deposits this fall, starting with USD-GBP cross-border settlements. Along with JPMorgan and Citi already in the game, the top US commercial banks are basically all entering.
At the same time, last week Bitcoin ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $853 million, Ethereum ETFs have had five consecutive weeks of net inflows, with BlackRock alone taking over 80%. Institutions are allocating as planned during low trading volumes, not driven by retail sentiment.
This means a large batch of users coming from traditional finance will soon be exposed to on-chain asset management for the first time.
Here’s the problem — these people are used to the "click to confirm" banking experience, not copying seed phrases, choosing chains, or calculating gas fees.
I believe the core competitive edge in the wallet space going forward will be the entry barrier. Whoever can make beginners feel at ease on their first use will win. $OKB A target I am watching: the market may not have fully repriced it yet
Recently, I have been observing $OKB, with the price fluctuating around 100 USD.
The more I study it, the more I feel its current valuation may have some expectation gap.
Why do I think so?
First, the supply-side logic has changed.
OKB is no longer a traditional exchange platform token. After a large-scale burn, the total supply of OKB has been fixed at 21 million, completely locking out any new supply pressure.
This logic is somewhat similar to a scarce asset model:
Limited chips + non-increasing supply, before the market fully recognizes it, there may be room for value revaluation.
Second, the demand side is switching.
Many people used to understand OKB as a "trading fee discount tool," but now it is taking on more on-chain roles.
With the development of the X Layer ecosystem, OKB has become the network-native Gas Token and an important component of the Exchange OS system. If more markets deploy based on this system in the future, OKB's actual use cases may further expand.
Simply put:
The supply side is becoming scarcer,
The demand side is seeking new growth curves.
If these two directions are realized simultaneously, the valuation given by the market may change.
Why start positioning now?
After falling back from the historical high near 258 USD, the adjustment has been very significant, and market sentiment remains cautious.
Of course, I will not choose to go all in at once.
Currently, I am only establishing an observation position. Going forward, I will focus on the progress of Exchange OS implementation and whether the X Layer ecosystem data can continue to grow before deciding whether to increase the position.
Risks must also be acknowledged:
The current scale of the X Layer ecosystem still needs time to be verified; the narrative ultimately depends on real users, capital, and application data support.
So my approach is simple:
Use a small position to pre-position in a potentially undervalued direction,
Waiting for the market to provide the answer.
⚠️ The above is only personal trading records and market views and does not constitute investment advice.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Many people use DeFi TVL rankings to judge the importance of a blockchain—
by this standard, Tron barely ranks (TVL only about ~$4.8 billion).
But if you look at stablecoin volume, Tron is the world's 2nd largest:
• Tron: $92.5 billion
• Solana: $15.5 billion
• Base: $5 billion
Stablecoins are 19 times the TVL. Money is on-chain but not entering protocols—transfers, settlements, withdrawals, then leaving.
For comparison:
• Ethereum: stablecoin/TVL = 3.6x
• Solana: 3.2x
• Base: 1.1x (money comes in and goes straight into DeFi)
Base is a DeFi chain, Tron is a settlement chain. These two metrics measure different things.
One more detail: in the past 7 days, Tron stablecoins +$750 million, Ethereum -$590 million, Solana -$170 million. Fear index 29, but U (USDT) has not fled from Tron—indicating this portion of funds is essential demand, not for DeFi speculation.
97.9% of Tron is USDT, almost a single-asset chain. A main artery for global USDT circulation.
When evaluating blockchains, don't just look at TVL; at least add one more metric: stablecoin volume.
Looking at both dimensions together, the conclusion will be completely different.
$TRX #tron📊 这一周的数据，已经把故事讲得很清楚了。 CPI从3.5%滑落到3.4%，核心CPI从2.6%降至2.5%；PPI同比从5.5%大幅回落到4.7%，核心PPI也从4.7%降至4.2%。与此同时，首次申请失业救济人数攀升至20.9万。三条曲线叠在一起，指向同一个方向：通胀在降温，就业在松动，9月加息的紧迫感正在快速消散。 但美联储内部，并没有那么平静。🗣️ Harmak站出来喊话，说“当前政策限制性不够”，必须继续加息；Barkin却表示“很多人认为现在的利率已经足够紧缩”。一个急着踩刹车，一个觉得可以松油门——两套逻辑摆在台面上，完全拧着来。 可市场已经没耐心听他们辩论了。📉 短期利率合约不再完全定价今年加息，美债收益率全面回落，标普500干脆直接冲破历史新高。交易员用脚投票，把仓位超前布好。嘴上说加息的人，已经被价格甩在身后。 油价也在配合这场大戏。🛢️ WTI单日跌超2%，逼近81美元；布伦特跌到87美元附近。霍尔木兹海峡的僵局依然未解，但地缘溢价确实在退潮。油价的松动，也在悄悄压低通胀预期的锚。 科技板块也没闲着。SNDK周四一度涨近14%，带动整个存储板块集体起飞。?Elon Musk has bet almost all of SpaceX's future on AI, and DOGE has been casually dragged into the comment section again. To clarify upfront: the AI risks disclosed by the company have no business connection with Dogecoin; this is just a name association, not a project update.
I'm a bit of a killjoy; while others look for breakthroughs, I first check trading volume. This time, look at the proportion of spot trading and the number of new coin-holding addresses—stop focusing solely on perpetual contracts as if flooring the gas pedal.
If after trending, spot buying doesn't pick up and address growth is flat, it means many are just watching, but few are actually moving money. Musk is responsible for turning on the spotlight; the blockchain won't write the script for him.
No need to rush to take sides; I want to see who is still in line during the pullback. Being able to withstand the cold market the next day is more informative than a single strong rally on the night itself.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and pay attention to risks. #$DOGE OKB is fluctuating around $100, and I think it is undervalued 🧐
I've been keeping an eye on OKB recently. It’s hovering around $100, and this level seems interesting to me.
Why do I think it’s undervalued?
The total supply is permanently capped at 21 million tokens, just like BTC.
In August 2025, there was a one-time burn that permanently destroyed 65,256,000 OKB from the treasury and buyback pool. This wasn’t a buyback burn; it directly changed the tokenomics — the total supply is fixed at 21 million, and the minting authority is permanently revoked. This is an irreversible fact, not decided by any individual.
But more importantly, the demand side is changing.
OKB is no longer just a "platform token discount coupon." It is the native Gas token of X Layer. When you trade, transfer, or deploy contracts on X Layer, you consume OKB. Every token burned reduces the supply by one.
Then there’s Exchange OS. It was just launched at the end of May. The core logic is: anyone can stake OKB to deploy their own trading markets on X Layer — spot, perpetual, prediction markets, anything.
Each new market means more OKB locked in staking contracts. The combination of locked supply × rising demand, at the current price level, feels underpriced to me. When the burn news came out last year, OKB rose about 200%, but it has since dropped roughly 69% from its all-time high of 258.
Market sentiment is still in the fear zone, so I’m not fully invested. I’m building a base position first and will add more depending on how Exchange OS performs in Q3.
⚠️ This is my personal trading record, not investment advice. X Layer’s TVL is still small, and whether the narrative will be realized depends on the data, but I’m willing to bet a small portion of my portfolio that the market hasn’t priced it correctly yet.
#OKB #XLayer #ExchangeOS #BuildingPosition $ETH $BTC $OKB #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 SNDK shorts have been crushed: This AI rally has moved from storytelling to a "profit revaluation" phase
The recent rise in SNDK is no longer just sentiment-driven speculation.
According to contract liquidation data, about $29.56 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with shorts accounting for nearly 89%. The majority of liquidations occurred within 12 hours—a typical case of fundamental catalysts combined with a crowded short squeeze.
The real driving force behind this is the AI storage logic being repriced.
Sandisk's latest Investor Day projects FY2028–2030 revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, with an adjusted gross margin target of about 80%. Meanwhile, it has signed new long-term agreements with 8 customers, covering approximately 50% of bit shipments in FY2027 and about two-thirds in FY2028.
The macro environment is also supportive: US July PPI was flat month-over-month at 0.0% and dropped to 4.7% year-over-year, further easing tightening pressures.
So the essence of this rally is:
Inflation cooling + AI demand realization + crowded shorts = accelerated short squeeze.
But the most dangerous move after a surge is chasing the rally.
What’s truly worth tracking going forward isn’t the liquidation numbers, but:
Whether orders can be fulfilled, whether profit margins can be maintained, and whether AI inference can continue to drive Flash demand.
The AI rally isn’t over; it has just entered a phase where performance must speak for itself. $SNDK #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 Daily US-Iran Situation Summary:
1. The UAE accuses Iran of attacking Abu Dhabi National Oil Company vessels for the second time within a week. Combined with yesterday's attack on a Saudi refinery, the "divine" struggle between the US and Iran has turned from sporadic incidents into a regular dynamic affecting the Gulf countries, which is a clear sign of geopolitical risk spillover.
2. Bassent, representing the US official stance, announced unprecedented economic isolation (blockade) of Iran starting next week, along with continued coastal blockades of Iran. This is the most formal and severe diplomatic warning from the US government this week.
3. Reuters reported that according to shipping data, the actual number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday has recovered to 9 ships/day, but it is still below the August average of 12 ships/day.
This is an optimistic sign. Although the US-Iran diplomatic and military game continues, as long as the actual number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers to 12 ships/day and no more vessel attacks occur, the overall supply-demand imbalance in the energy market will improve, allowing crude oil prices to continue to decline.
Current stage assessment: #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果，美伊施压升级
The US-Iran game continues, but energy prices have gradually adapted to the diplomatic and military pressures from both sides. The market is more concerned about actual navigation data and daily energy supply volumes.
Given the current pace of bilateral diplomatic negotiations, this weekend will still be difficult. Stay cautious and continue to monitor official US-Iran statements, strait navigation data, etc. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 Currently, the market is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. How exactly should we interpret it?
$SPCX On one side, Max has released AI-related positive news, proposing three major development directions: hardware, software, and AI satellites. Terafab and Grok are also highly anticipated, bringing a lot of imagination space to the market.
However, A-Cheng has detected a whale placing massive short orders worth up to 200 million in the high price range, heavily positioned around 142-142.9, creating significant resistance to upward movement.
The positive news mostly leans toward long-term vision, with no short-term realized performance, making it easy for funds to exit after the positive news is priced in. The whale’s large short orders at key resistance levels mean that once the price reaches this range, it will face heavy selling pressure.
The subsequent market is very likely to enter a high-level tug-of-war, with rallies easily encountering suppression and pullbacks. Overall, it will fluctuate repeatedly, and chasing highs before a breakout carries considerable risk.
[The above is only market analysis and does not constitute investment advice]
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨 The gang leader has something to say
SanDisk's explosive rally this time was triggered by the Investor Day on August 13. On that day, the stock price surged nearly 14%, reaching as high as 17.6% intraday. It climbed steadily from around 1190 to 1544, showing remarkable strength.
What did Investor Day reveal? Three solid points.
First, the long-term financial model fully maxed out expectations. From FY2028 to FY2030, revenue is projected to grow in the mid-to-high double digits, non-GAAP gross margin will reach about 80%, operating margin close to 75%, and free cash flow margin 50%. A storage chip company daring to claim an 80% gross margin caused the market to immediately reprice. The company also promised 100% excess cash return to shareholders after investments. For institutional funds, this return commitment is very attractive.
Second, a $93.9 billion long-term agreement. They have signed NBM long-term contracts with 8 customers, with a weighted average contract term over 4 years, the longest being 5 years. By FY2027, these contracts cover 50% of bit shipments, and by FY2028, two-thirds. The total contract value is $93.9 billion, with remaining performance obligations of $91.1 billion and $16.5 billion in financial guarantees as a safety net. This means even if NAND spot prices pull back, a significant portion of revenue and profit is protected. For the first time, a storage company has multi-year demand visibility.
Third, AI inference opens a new demand ceiling. SanDisk calls SSDs "Token Battery," with KV Cache demand in AI inference growing exponentially. Sequence length increases from 1k to 128k tokens, and KV Cache per request jumps from 0.5GB to 64GB. HBM and DRAM cannot handle such large cache demands, making NAND flash the key carrier for overflow demand. By 2026, AI inference will push enterprise SSDs to become NAND's largest downstream application market, accounting for 37%. $BTC $ETH $OKB
Goldman Sachs issued a report the same day, reaffirming a buy rating with a 12-month target price of $2200, which is 44% above the closing price of 1528 that day.
What is the essence of this explosive rally? The market is repricing SanDisk. Previously, the focus was on how long NAND price increases could last, and the cycle peak was given a low valuation. Now, the focus is on what kind of storage the AI inference era requires, with long-term agreements locking in cycle fluctuations and AI inference opening a demand ceiling. These two logics combined completely change the valuation framework.
I bought long at 1190 and sold at 1368, then shorted at 1380. I hit the rhythm on both ends. The long-term logic remains unchanged, but short-term sentiment is in place. Take profits when you should, wait for the right position when you should.Risk appetite looks more selective than weak. BTC at $62,905.9 is down 1.25% over 24 hours, while ETH and SOL are holding up better. That relative resilience suggests the market is reducing broad exposure, not abandoning crypto outright.
With the S&P 500 nearing 8,000 and Korea’s chip rebound keeping the AI trade in focus, the bigger test is whether earnings can validate elevated expectations while the Fed remains split. My bias is cautious: liquidity-sensitive assets may stay range-bound until policy direction becomes clearer.
Just my read, not advice.When the air is filled with the mixed scent of gunpowder and heated metal from crypto, I know the wind has shifted.
Wind direction: southeast by south. Wind force: level three. Target: Tether's balance sheet, a "bullet" weighing hundreds of billions of dollars, finally sent to the independent audit firing range. On August 13, KPMG's probe entered this industry's heaviest chamber and concluded with an "unqualified opinion"—meaning the rifling is clean, the charge is sufficient, and the firing pin is not misaligned.
I pull the bolt and look through the crosshairs of the scope. This is not a simple financial disclosure; it is a "ballistic calibration" of the entire market position. A reserve surplus of $6.814 billion, like a box of counted spare ammunition, stacked in the bunker. The enemy of panic selling fears nothing more than such a well-prepared arsenal.
But in the sniper's eyes, the target report is never the main point. The key is whether the opponent has passed the "consistency test." Wall Street peers—those observers with high-powered telescopes—are closely watching for a flaw: is this audit a "one-time mission" or a "routine patrol"? If it’s just a special forces show of strength occasionally, then the "stablecoin asset panic" that has infiltrated could return at any time.
I glance at the gauge on the other side, belonging to the Token target $XIWM. On this battlefield, its sensitivity is extremely high. Any dust about USDT’s underlying quality will amplify into imperceptible vibrations on its barrel. This thing now is like a glass stuck to the bullseye—both transparent and fragile.
The market always only watches where the next bullet lands. Although Tether’s shot has proven it did not "misfire," if it does not commit to the date of the next inspection, then the expectations pinned on $XIWM are just "overnight dew"—beautiful but unable to last through the morning.
My index finger is already on the trigger. But according to sniper code, without confirming the real removal of the "transparency gap" danger target, I will not adjust my breathing rate to firing mode. The killer’s instinct tells me: the audit is proof of ammunition quality, and KPMG’s name is just the chamois cloth used to clean the lens. Whether the lens is clean depends on whether they keep their eyes on the bullseye called "normalization." Without confirmation of a second or third shot, all long positions on the battlefield are just bait to lure the enemy in.
Lie low. Wait for the wind to stop.
#TetherFirstFullAudit SanDisk vs Micron, how to choose between these two storage giants?
Let me help you clarify it all at once.
📈 Gains this year:
SanDisk +536% (237→1528)
Micron +225% (285→950)
SanDisk wins
📈 Pullback from the peak:
SanDisk June 2354→bottom 1211, pullback 49%
Micron June 1214→bottom 821, pullback 32%
Micron has a smaller pullback, SanDisk rebounds stronger
📈 Profitability:
SanDisk quarterly revenue ~7.4 billion, gross margin 56%, zero debt
Micron quarterly revenue 41.5 billion, gross margin 85%, trillion-dollar market cap
Micron is larger in scale with higher profit margin
📈 AI layout:
SanDisk: HBF high bandwidth flash (NAND direction)
Micron: HBM high bandwidth memory (DRAM direction)
HBM is already in mass production, HBF is still in early stages
Micron leads by 2 years
📌 My view:
Short term SanDisk has stronger momentum (Investor Day catalyst)
Mid term Micron has higher certainty (HBM locked in)
Hold small positions in both, don’t go all in on one
$SNDK $MU 同样都是公链赛道SUI与CORE走了两条完全不一样的路。 SUI官方一直在做事，主打高性能，适合游戏、NFT、DeFi大规模应用。 目前生态已经跑起来了，DEX、借贷、链游、NFT基建齐全，有持续进来的开发者与真实用户，链上交易、TVL、Gas收入都有实实在在的数据支撑。即使也会遇到行情回调、生态项目暴雷，但底层一直有链上活动在持续发生，机构关注度也更高。 反观CORE反复拿着BTC生态，Satoshi Plus共识，BTCFi质押说事，共识概念很吸引人。 但生态产品反复延期，链上Gas收入微薄，缺少大规模真实应用，大部分热度来自预期，而非链上实际使用。CORE官方的大饼一直在画，但是链上冷冷清清，散户还在原地等待未来产品上线。 公链可以靠故事短期吸引眼球，但长期估值，最终要看多少真实用户在链上使用 $CORE $SUI $BTC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 Micron (MU) rose for two consecutive days 8/12 +4.92%, 8/13 +4.23%, closing at $950, rebounding 16% from the low of 821 at the end of July. How scary are the core data: • FQ3 revenue $41.4 billion (QoQ +73%) • Non-GAAP gross margin 85% • Net profit $28.2 billion, EPS $24.67 • HBM contracts locked until 2027, ~ $100 billion • 16 multi-year contracts, $2.2 billion cash margin • FQ4 guidance: $50 billion revenue, 86% gross margin HBM4 mass-produced and shipped to Nvidia HBM4e mass production in 2027 2027 capacity fully booked Key issue: forward P/E only 6.4x, looks very cheap but storage is a cyclical industry, low PE = cyclical peak signal Market is gambling: can profits sustain? Analyst target price $1550 BofA put it on US1 conviction list ⚠️ Risks: China CXMT capacity expansion may pressure prices Ultra-large-scale customer AI investment ROI questioned 2028 capacity not locked $MU #Micron #HBM #AIStorage #StorageChips At the beginning of the year, everyone thought 2026 would be the "Year of Clarity." Now it looks more like the "Year of Waiting."
And what's the most ironic thing?
The SEC could have acted without waiting for Congress.
TD Cowen's analyst put it bluntly: After the CLARITY Act was stalled in the Senate, the SEC's rulemaking has become the "primary administrative path" to achieving regulatory clarity for crypto. SEC Chair Atkins has also clearly stated before that a "safe harbor" would be established for token sales, providing an exemption pathway for startups.
The rule framework is already in place, and the three-page proposal has been written.
But they just won't hold meetings. They just won't vote.
You have the answers, but you don't give them.
So what is the market doing?
Guessing.
Guessing whether the CLARITY Act will pass after the September session—Republicans hold 53 seats, need 60 votes, so at least 7 Democrats must support it. Guessing when the SEC will reconvene. Guessing what the "safe harbor" will actually look like. Guessing when the exemption details for tokenized securities will be finalized.
The entire industry is betting on a "maybe."
Bitwise says the impact is "short-term." But how short-term? One month? Three months? Or dragged out until 2027?
No one knows. $BTC Bearish or Bullish on sndk
Ticker: SNDK (Nasdaq, SanDisk)
1. Core Logic Supporting the Upside (Bullish Reasons)
1. AI Storage Demand Dividend
AI large model inference, KV caching, and edge computing continuously drive enterprise SSD demand; the company focuses on high-margin data center business, with investors setting long-term targets: maintaining high double-digit revenue growth from 2028 to 2030, aiming for gross margins close to 80%.
2. Business Model Improvement
Aggressively promoting long-term locked-price agreements (LTA) with major clients, extending contract cycles to try to weaken the storage industry's cyclicality; zero debt, holding large cash reserves, launching a substantial share buyback program.
3. Supply Constraints
Major storage manufacturers prioritize expanding HBM production and slow down NAND capacity expansion, causing short-term NAND supply-demand tightness; the industry shifts from "competing on shipment volume" to "prioritizing profit preservation."
4. Divergent Institutional Views, Optimistic Price Targets Are Very High
Many Wall Street major banks maintain buy ratings, with the highest target price near $3,250; the current stock price (closing at $1,528 on August 13) has fallen significantly from the historical high of $2,354.
2. Huge Bearish Risks (Must Be Closely Watched)
1. Storage Is a Highly Cyclical Industry (Biggest Hidden Risk)
Currently, ultra-high gross margins belong to the peak of the cycle. Once Samsung or SK Hynix release new NAND capacity, or AI capital expenditure cools down, flash prices will decline, gross margins will quickly fall, and stock prices are prone to sharp pullbacks. Historically, storage down cycles have seen extremely severe declines.
2. Stock Price Has Risen Greatly Previously, Intense Chip Battles
Since the spin-off listing in 2025, the maximum one-year increase exceeded 40 times, with many profit-taking positions; volatility is extremely high, with daily price swings often exceeding 10%, prone to rapid surges and crashes.
3. Valuation Controversy Is Significant
Bulls see AI growth attributes; bears believe it is just a cyclical stock, and the current price has fully priced in optimistic expectations, with ultra-high gross margins unsustainable long-term.
4. Supply Chain Depends on Kioxia Joint Venture Factory
Capacity is highly tied to partners; geopolitical, factory risks, and cooperation disputes may affect capacity release.
3. Simple Summary: Will It Rise?
✅ There Is Potential for Continued Rise
If subsequent validation continues: AI storage demand exceeds expectations, NAND prices remain high, long-term major client agreements are implemented, and earnings reports consistently beat expectations significantly, the stock price may challenge previous highs again.
⚠️ There Is Also Significant Downside Risk
If AI demand falls short of expectations, industry capacity expansion intensifies, or flash spot prices soften, a deep correction is likely.
4. Practical Reference Ideas (For Reference Only, Not Buy/Sell Advice)
1. Short-term Traders: Closely watch US stock sentiment, storage sector rotation, and after-hours earnings guidance; volatility is huge, strictly set stop losses.
2. Medium to Long-term Holders: Focus on two core indicators:
◦ NAND flash spot price trends
◦ Quarterly earnings reports, enterprise data center business growth, and gross margin changes
3. Risk Bottom Line: Do not heavily concentrate on a single highly volatile US stock; SNDK’s profit and loss can be very extreme.
If you need, I can help organize a key catalyst and risk observation indicator list for you to track going forward, making it easier for you to judge the trend.Looking at Murphy's data: BTC bought in 2025 has dropped 41.5%, all sold at a loss. Weak hands are being washed out, selling pressure from old coins has weakened, and institutional lock-up is also helping. There is still room for historical comparison, but don't stubbornly focus on percentages. Improvement on the supply side is a good thing, but it doesn't mean the bottom is immediately in sight. Personally, I think the washout is nearing its end, and next we need to see if the macro environment can provide support. Damn, recently watching the rhythm of $SNDK really surprised me a bit. Honestly, single-night price swings can easily get people hyped, but what’s really worth watching is the underlying storage cycle.
SanDisk’s long-term outlook is quite aggressive, targeting an 80% gross margin before 2030, with plans to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders after production starts. Also, server DDR5 prices have risen 15%~23% in a month, indicating that demand-side changes might not be just a day or two of sentiment.
Let me tell you, I used to make the mistake of chasing highs too, and getting stuck after FOMO was painful, so now I pay more attention to quarterly-level logic. Basically, when the three storage giants rotate, don’t rush to go all in; preserving your ammo is more important than chasing a big green candle. You get it, right? Slow variables are the real test of patience. $SKHYNIX $MU 闪迪$SNDK 投资者大会落下帷幕，管理层抛出非常亮眼的长期发展目标，直接推动股价大幅上涨，眼下所有资金都在掂量这份蓝图能不能落地。 重点：公司预判未来几年依靠AI存储需求，持续保持营收稳步增长，目标冲击八成毛利率，赚到多余现金全部回馈持股投资者。 还靠着和各大云厂商签订长期大单，希望弱化存储行业大涨大跌的周期性。 资本市场看法两极分化。看多资金认为，AI催生海量存储需求，长期锁价订单能够稳住利润，行业格局迎来改变，估值还有上行空间。 但谨慎的投资者心存顾虑，这么高的盈利目标放在芯片行业十分夸张。 存储行业向来产能波动巨大，一旦后续供给变多、需求放缓，高利润很难长期维持。 短期来看，利好已经反映在股价上面。接下来行情不会一路顺畅，资金会反复验证公司兑现目标的能力。 单纯靠预期推动的上涨很难一直延续，后续需要实打实的业绩持续跟上，不然很容易出现冲高回落。 总结：长期故事足够吸引人，但目标兑现难度不小。短线情绪炒作过后，大家重点观察后续订单、盈利数据能否持续达标。 #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 纳指马上又要新高了，所以投资赚钱的核心是什么？不是选对一个什么东西，而是在一个好的池子里做选择。 可再好的东西也不是每天都涨，纳指在涨多了以后也会经历大幅回调，比如人人都在谈论的未来AI泡沫的破裂，就可能让它经历一波大回撤，但这个时间在什么时候呢？没人说得准，我今天权当预测，你就这么一听。 我前几天写过，美联储主席沃什，他和特朗普是穿一条裤子的，不单单是他是特朗普在吃了鲍威尔的亏后，千挑万选选上来的，更是因为其岳父就是特朗普的长期金主和老兄弟。所以沃什现在说什么你都不要信，他的最终目的一定和老特一致，那就是降息。 可降息是需要理由的，现在的铺垫和等待，都是为了找到这个理由，否则无视高企的PCE（个人消费物价指数）强行降息，一是被认为他就是老特的走狗，以后他说的话就是放屁了，那就不能很好地继续帮助老特；二是美联储的独立性如果受到影响，金字招牌一旦不被信任，引发的后果就灾难多了。所以他们都在等，等什么？等就业恶化，等经济衰退，等PCE回落，然后就光明正大地开启降息——这些数据都是可以定制的，不信8月数据公布等着瞧。 但8月数据出来如果PCE进一步靠近2%，沃什会不会松口说可能会降息呢？不会This is truly the calm before the storm for Bitcoin, because historically, every time volatility drops this low, it either marks the bottom of a bear market or signals a major move is coming. Today, I want to focus on the phenomenon where open interest surges while the price is falling, as well as the current consolidation range and the target levels after a breakout.
First, a pattern: historically, Bitcoin bear markets have never lasted more than 365 days, and now there are only 54 days left until that point. This suggests the bear market bottom may be very close. At the same time, trading volume is rapidly shrinking, which is another signal that the bottom is near.
Looking at the volatility index, on the weekly level, Bitcoin rarely falls to such a low position. The last time it dropped this low was in September 2025, followed by a sharp decline. The time before that was August 2023, followed by a strong rally. In other words, every time volatility is this low, a major move inevitably follows, and this time will be no exception, though the direction is still uncertain.
To judge the direction, we need to look at the volume profile, which represents the true historical support and resistance for Bitcoin. The current assessment is clear: if it breaks below 62,500, it will likely continue downward; if it breaks above 66,900, it will likely continue upward. We are currently at the end of a symmetrical triangle pattern, and once the direction is chosen, the consolidation will end, directly determining the next trend.
In the short term, I still believe August is bearish for Bitcoin, so caution is advised this month. Meanwhile, volume is decreasing but open interest is accumulating, further confirming that a major move is imminent. Although many signals indicate the bear market bottom is very close, I personally think it hasn't truly arrived yet. I will continue to monitor the liquidation heatmap and will update immediately if the consolidation range is broken. That's all for now. Tonight in the US stock market, the real focus isn't the indices, but this one data point. $BTC $SNDK
20:30, July retail sales.
Yesterday, PPI already gave the market a sweetener:
Inflation continues to cool → September rate hike expectations decline → US Treasury yields fall → Nasdaq and tech stocks keep surging.
Now the market just needs one confirmation.
If tonight's retail sales also start to cool, it means the US economy is gradually shifting from "high inflation + strong consumption" to "inflation easing + demand slowing."
What does this mean for the Fed?
Rate hikes become increasingly unnecessary, and the window for rate cuts becomes clearer.
So tonight I will focus on:
📉 Retail sales below expectations
📉 US 10Y Treasury yields continue to decline
📉 Oil prices continue to weaken
📈 Nasdaq continues to outperform the broader market
📈 Semiconductors/AI continue to lead gains
If these signals appear simultaneously, the S&P 500 just breaking above 7800 might not be the end.
But conversely, if consumption data suddenly strengthens and Treasury yields rise again, be cautious—
the market's "rate cut trade" might hit the brakes first.
At this point, the biggest risk isn't picking the wrong direction.
It's that the indices have hit new highs and everyone starts believing "it only goes up, never down."
Tonight, traders ask only one question:
Is the US economy truly soft-landing, or is it not cooling at all?
20:30, the answer arrives.👀
#“AI股神”基金清仓，美光单日涨超15% #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 $BTC is getting squeezed.
Price is trapped inside a multi-week triangle with lower highs and buyers defending the rising trendline.
We’re getting close to the apex now.
Reclaim $63.5K–$64K and $65K+ comes back into play.
Lose the lower trendline and I’d be watching $61.5K next.
Personally leaning downside here. The squeeze is getting tight and volume is drying up.
Let’s see which side gets taken first.🚨 $BTC Faces Another Geopolitical Shock — $63K Is the Key Level
Crypto doesn’t always wait for technical signals when geopolitical tensions rise.
Following reports of a U.S.-led multinational drone task force, $BTC quickly slipped from around $63,600 toward $62,800, while $ETH pulled back toward $1,862.
Markets appear to be pricing in a higher geopolitical risk premium as tensions surrounding Iran continue to escalate.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit
#SP500Nears8000 $SNDK SanDisk's recent performance has been impressive, but the stock price has already exhausted its positive timing, with significant short-term downside risks and persistent bearish signals. First, after the company's latest quarterly results were announced, revenue guidance for next quarter fell short of market expectations, gross margin slightly fell from 84.6%, a second-stage growth turning point appeared, and high growth momentum gradually waned.
Second, the storage industry continues to face cyclical pressures, with global NAND flash supply gradually expanding, and expectations of loose supply and demand heating up, which will continue to suppress spot product prices. At the same time, domestic storage manufacturers are rising rapidly, intensifying competition in the mid- and low-end market, further squeezing SanDisk's profit margins.
Additionally, SanDisk's long-term contract orders lock in a large amount of capacity, seemingly stable income, but in reality, it locks in upward stock price elasticity, preventing it from enjoying subsequent industry excess dividends. Additionally, overseas institutions have issued clear sell ratings, target prices are significantly below current prices, and technically, the stock price has fallen from high levels and fluctuated weaker. With multiple negative factors resonating together, SanDisk's valuation bubble urgently needs to be digested, and it is highly likely to continue its short-term correction.实盘交易记录显示，一名交易员发起的“1000U挑战10万U”计划已推进至第18天，账户权益从初始1000U增长至1620U，刷新本轮收益新高，累计浮盈62%。该账户主要采用网格合约策略，当前持有四个品种仓位，另保留一ETH永续多单。 持仓明细方面，SanDisk（代码SNDK）网格合约策略入场价1380，当前价格1397，浮盈比例约53%，浮盈金额约80U；Hynix（代码SKHYNIX）网格合约入场价1254，当前价格1139，浮盈比例约0.7%，浮盈约2U；KORU网格合约入场价15，当前价格20.9，浮盈比例约179%，浮盈约359U，为当前贡献最大盈利的仓位；DOGE网格合约入场价0.0701，当前价格0.0702，浮盈比例约0.46%，浮盈0.92U。ETH合约多单保持持有，交易员表示该品种反弹力度偏弱，故设置保本止损位，待价格上涨至目标区间后再行止盈。 交易员在记录中提出仓位调整计划：鉴于近期美股表现强劲，需防范回调风险，准备在行情进一步上行后先行平掉KORU仓位，以降低整体敞口。其同时强调，上述内容仅为个人交易记录，不构成投资建议。 值得留意的是，截至发稿日，账户仍处于盈#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 $SEC delays first major crypto rule proposal
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission suddenly canceled and indefinitely postponed the highly anticipated "Reg Crypto" proposal meeting, extending regulatory uncertainty in the industry. This delay leaves the market without clear, immediate guidance on digital asset classification and exchange compliance. From an investment perspective, the regulatory standstill delays the rapid launch of new institutional products, forcing capital to continue operating in a gray area, resulting in sustained high compliance premiums for domestic exchanges and token issuers. Data cools down + company releases positive news, SanDisk $SNDK surged nearly 20% directly on Thursday night. This wave is actually more worth watching than just a simple earnings report rally.$OKB
Recently, US inflation and employment data have continuously signaled cooling, and the market's expectations for subsequent liquidity improvement have started to heat up. At this very moment, SanDisk proactively gave the market a strong boost—announcing growth targets for the next three to five years, expecting revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, while reducing the cyclical fluctuations in the storage industry through long-term customer agreements.
Two logics just happened to collide.
The macro data cooling gave the market #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温
The S&P 500 index surpassed 7800 points for the first time on August 13, with the day's gain expanding to 0.66%.
Simply put, the US stock market has hit new highs again.
The most noticeable drivers were tech and storage stocks; AMD rose over 6%, Western Digital and Intel both gained more than 4%. The market is still clustered around AI and computing power-related themes.
In the crypto space, Bitcoin and altcoins remain relatively scattered, while the US tech sector continues to strengthen.
Capital clearly prefers to stay where liquidity is better and narratives are clearer.
As someone trading in crypto, I think caution is warranted: while US tech stocks are still racing upward, if the crypto market continues to rise unevenly with insufficient liquidity, expecting a broad market-wide rally anytime soon is quite difficult.
In the short term, it depends on whether US stock market sentiment continues to drain liquidity or if funds will flow back.
Therefore, I believe the more steadily the US stock market rises, the harder it will be for the crypto market to independently strengthen. Volume shrank by -92.5%, breadth 3 up 12 down — the worst day of the entire market, yet $BTC only -1.21%. Price didn't crash, volume died first; this is not stabilization, it's a vacuum with no one to catch it.
$BTC this hour at $62,891, 24h -1.21%, FG29 is numb. Funding rate cut from +0.0058% to +0.0032%, but OI topped at 112,600 — longs are withdrawing, shorts are hanging on, the leverage balance is quietly tipping.
$BICO leads the decline with 24h -13.69%, a footnote to the breadth collapse: money is flowing out, not sector rotation.
Framework takeaway: "Extreme volume shrinkage + breadth collapse" is a liquidity vacuum template; a true bottom requires volume to revert ±20% to the mean and breadth to turn bullish, neither of which is happening now.
Blind spot to acknowledge: snapshots don't give me on-chain transfer volume, so I can't tell if retail is lying flat or if whales are withdrawing. Confirmation requires BTC volume to revert ±20% and breadth to recover to 6 or more up moves to consider the vacuum broken.
With reasons, I flip — this hour I stand by "vacuum is not bottom," I won't believe in a rebound without volume recovery, and I flip on anyone bringing numeric logic to argue otherwise.
Crypto assets are high risk; the above is purely personal speculation and does not constitute investment advice.
#OKXPlanet $BTC $BICO #VolumeContraction #LiquidityVacuum$XAU AI Infrastructure Earnings Season Review: Earnings Collectively Exceed Expectations, Stock Prices Collectively "Die in the Light" $BTC
Lumentum's revenue last quarter was $1.01 billion, a year-over-year surge of 109%, with next quarter guidance midpoint at $1.25 billion. After the earnings report, the stock price fluctuated, dropping more than 5% at one point.
Coherent's revenue was $2.05 billion, surpassing the $2 billion mark for the first time, up 34% year-over-year, with next quarter guidance midpoint at $2.3 billion, both exceeding expectations. After hours, it dropped about 5%.
Cisco's revenue hit a record $17.3 billion, up 18% year-over-year, with AI infrastructure orders totaling $9.3 billion for the full year. After the earnings report, the stock initially rose 8% but then fell more than 6%.
Applied Materials reported revenue of $9.12 billion, up 25% year-over-year, with EPS of $3.5, a historic high, and next quarter guidance also exceeding expectations. After hours, it dropped more than 5%.
All four companies exceeded earnings expectations, all guidance exceeded expectations, yet all stock prices fell.
To be honest, my first reaction seeing this data was: what exactly counts as good?
After thinking carefully, the problem might lie in a few areas.
Expectations were already too high. Coherent's stock had already surged over 8% during normal trading before the earnings, Cisco has risen over 60% this year, and the market had fully priced in the belief that "AI infrastructure will do well," so the earnings just confirmed this, not a surprise.
Also, the market is now calculating very precisely. Cisco's full-year AI orders are $9.3 billion, but the AI revenue forecast for fiscal 2027 is only $7.5 billion, raising doubts about the speed of order conversion to revenue. Coherent's orders are booked through 2028, but the market is now focusing on profit margins and free cash flow. Applied Materials' order visibility extends to 2030, yet the stock price still fell.
My own feeling is that the market has shifted from a "faith phase" to a "verification phase." Previously, investors were willing to pay for the AI dream; now they want to see real profits. It's not enough to just "beat expectations," it has to be a "significant beat" for people to buy in.
The pie is still growing, but the knives dividing the pie are getting sharper.
Next, focus on profit margins, free cash flow, and order conversion rates. If these accounts aren't clear, just relying on the phrase "strong AI demand" won't support valuations. How things proceed next will be told by the earnings reports.
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 $DOGE Việc thông qua các đạo luật quản lý thị trường số như Đạo luật Stablecoin hay CLARITY Act (Đạo luật Minh bạch Thị trường Tài sản Số) là bước ngoặt mang tính "mở khóa" cho dòng vốn tài chính truyền thống (TradFi). Sự rõ ràng về mặt pháp lý loại bỏ rủi ro pháp lý cho các ngân hàng, quỹ hưu trí và quỹ phòng hộ. Mỗi loại tài sản ($BTC, $ETH,$XAUT và Altcoin) sẽ chịu tác động theo những cơ chế khác nhau: 1. Bitcoin ($BTC): Hưởng lợi lớn nhất & Bền vững nhất Phân loại rõ ràng: CLARITY Act xác định phầIn 1974, two computer scientists published a paper defining the TCP/IP protocol. It wasn't a revolutionary application, just a set of underlying rules that made different computers talk to each other. But it was precisely this seemingly inconspicuous rule that unified the global internet—all applications, all websites, all data streams ultimately had to pass through it. Ethereum is becoming the TCP/IP of the financial world. Not as an asset, not as a currency, but as the underlying protocol for value transfer. The world's largest group of financial institutions are voting with real money, and they are all choosing the same chain. 1. Wall Street is rebuilding on Ethereum As of the end of July 2026, the scale of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) on the Ethereum mainnet has surpassed $17 billion, an increase of over 315% from about $4.1 billion a year earlier. Ethereum accounts for about 53% to 65% of the total total cross-chain RWA, firmly holding the top spot. This growth is not a free-riding ride in a crypto bull market. In Q2 2026, Bitcoin entered a downward cycle from its all-time high of over $122,000 in October 2025, with total DeFi value locked dropping from about $115 billion at the start of the year to a yearly low of $69.4 billion, a drop of nearly 40%. The entire crypto market is deleveraging, unwinding, and bleeding. Only RWA is exploding against the trend. A report jointly released by CoinShares and Token Terminal on August 6, 2026, shows: In Q2 2026, DeFi total assetsIn-depth analysis of BTC's continued weakness｜Why is BTC unable to rise despite the strength in US stocks?
The most obvious recent divergence: US data is generally weak, US stocks hit new highs, and rate cut expectations are warming up, but BTC remains weak and volatile with a lackluster rebound.
Many wonder why BTC doesn't rise despite positive factors, which is seen as weakness. Today, I will explain the four core reasons behind BTC's recent weakness:
1. Core negative factor: SEC regulatory meeting was suddenly canceled, cooling market sentiment
The market originally expected clear regulatory guidance and a favorable easing outlook for the crypto industry in the US.
However, the SEC suddenly canceled the scheduled crypto meeting today with no new date set.
This means: positive expectations were dashed → funds withdrew early
The crypto market thrives on "policy easing expectations." Without these expectations materializing, funds directly choose to wait and avoid risk, which is the biggest trigger for the recent weakness.$XRP's daily closing price is pressed below the $1.00 mark, with frequent on-chain chip turnover while off-chain new capital inflow has nearly stalled.
The downtrend since the $3.30 high on January 2025 continues, with the daily close at $1.00 marking the lowest close since November 2024, accumulating a drawdown of about 69%.
On-chain daily active addresses have grown month-over-month by 33% to 35,700, while daily new addresses remain flat around 2,260, showing clear characteristics of stock game.
The rise in active addresses only reflects intense turnover of existing chips at key support levels on-chain, and the lack of new users taking over makes the $1.00 defense relatively fragile.
If daily new addresses break above 3,000 and the market volume recovers above $1.20, a structural double bottom may be established; if the daily close candle body falls below $1.00 again, this rebound pattern will fail.
If the daily candle closes as a bearish body piercing the $1.00 support, it may trigger a long stop-loss stampede and accelerate the downtrend; if the price quickly rebounds above $1.05 within 24 hours, the breakdown will be invalidated.
If daily new addresses abnormally break above 4,000 before the price starts, the current dominant logic of stock consumption will be broken, and the market structure will shift to new demand-driven.
The most critical variables to observe in the next 7 days are the strength of the $1.00 daily close defense and whether daily new addresses can break out of the 2,260 sideways range.
#特朗普因TruthSocial付费数据流遭起诉 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化The SEC originally scheduled a meeting on August 14 to discuss designing a dedicated issuance framework for some cryptocurrency projects, but the meeting was suddenly canceled.
The official explanation is that unforeseen scheduling issues arose, and the meeting will be rescheduled, though no specific date has been announced yet. This does not mean the rules were rejected or that the SEC suddenly changed its stance; it just means the vote planned for this Friday is temporarily postponed. Many people might easily interpret this as "crypto regulatory benefits are gone." In fact, a more accurate situation is that the direction remains, but the timing has been pushed back. The SEC originally wanted to create a more suitable financing framework for on-chain projects without fully applying the traditional securities approach, and this idea has not disappeared.
The CLARITY Act in the Senate has also been pushed to September 15, and Congress is on recess for a few weeks. The overall direction is still relatively friendly, but the actual implementation speed is slower than many expect. I think this is a short-term cooling of expectations, not a reversal of direction.
If the SEC quickly reschedules the meeting, the impact will be minimal. But if it drags on until September or even gets caught in political tug-of-war along with the bill, the market will need to reassess the pace of progress. For ordinary people, this news today will not directly determine Bitcoin's price movement. What really matters is the next few weeks—whether the SEC can release the rules and whether the Senate can advance the bill. As long as there is progress in either, the main line of regulatory improvement remains.
Market conditions change quickly; how things proceed next depends on the market. For more specific levels and position changes, you can follow me.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 The market is experiencing a rapid sell-off.
What exactly is driving this round of decline?
Is it triggered by sudden negative news?
As the largest mainstream asset, its performance is particularly fragile?
It has been weakening for so long without any decent recovery rally in sight, making holding positions truly painful.
In comparison, some other assets are actually showing stronger trends, which brings mixed feelings.
On the macro level, data continues to weaken, and disagreements over future policy directions are increasing; meanwhile, the equity market keeps hitting new stage highs, showing a clear divergence in market capital preferences. $BTC Today's SNDK finally let out the breath that was holding back.
A few days ago, I was really confused when I looked at SanDisk's financial report.
- Quarterly revenue of $8.97 billion, a 51% increase compared to the previous quarter. The gross profit margin reached 84.6%, and the data center business doubled directly, but the stock price still suffered after the financial report was released.
My feeling at the time was: What else does the market want?
Later, I realized that what everyone was worried about was not whether SanDisk would make money this season, but whether the money earned now could be retained. After all, the storage industry used to be too cyclical. When prices rose, everyone was a stock god. When the production capacity increased, the profit would disappear.
So what's really useful today's Investor Day is not how many times the management has said "AI," but it's starting to answer a more practical question:
How can SanDisk stop being a cyclical stock?
Currently, the company has signed new long-term agreements with eight customers, covering approximately 50% of shipments in the 2027 fiscal year and approximately two-thirds of shipments in the 2028 fiscal year. Simply put, it means locking in a portion of demand and prices in advance, and trying to avoid the days of "eating meat this year, drinking wind next year".
More directly, the management's target for the fiscal years 2028 to 2030 includes a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 80%, an adjusted free cash flow rate of approximately 50%, and plans to return all remaining cash to shareholders after completing the necessary investments.
Seeing this, I probably understand why the market is willing to pay today.
In the past, when people looked at SNDK, they thought of the price increase of NAND. Now the company wants to convince everyone that it is not just selling storage particles, but the "data warehouse" that AI data centers are increasingly lacking.
Of course, I don't dare to directly call out the stars and the sea now.
The long-term goal is ultimately the goal. $SNDK $SanDisk skyrocketed overnight! But the stock forum immediately erupted in debate: Is this a real turnaround or just the same old hype?
Half the people are wildly bullish: Trillion-dollar contracts + dividend guarantees, a steady long-term win!
Half the people are coldly mocking: Storage is an old story, every time the market looks good they paint a big picture, but in the end it’s all talk!
It’s really so true, perfectly illustrating the current mindset of retail investors: want to believe, but don’t dare fully trust; want to chase, but fear being played.
This time, the info SanDisk released is indeed tempting.
The official data is right there:
✅ Locked in 8 major clients
✅ $93.9 billion in contracts pending fulfillment on the table
✅ Advancing next-gen HBF high-bandwidth storage, positioning for the AI high-speed storage track
✅ Returning all excess cash to shareholders, dividends full of sincerity
On paper alone, it’s a “textbook-level fundamental improvement.”
No longer vague industry stories, but real plans with clients, orders, expectations, and dividends.
So why are veteran investors still calm or even bearish?
Because in storage, what’s never lacking are attractive long-term goals, but what’s scarce is stable fulfillment.
History shows:
Every year, storage giants’ investor days love to release ultra-high expectations and super track stories.
But the industry is highly cyclical; when the market changes and demand weakens, those goals usually quietly shrink or disappear.
And there’s still ambiguity this time:
The rollout pace of HBF new tech, details of China business, client structure, delivery timing — none are fully transparent yet.
Add industry regulation and cycle fluctuations, and whether the $93.9 billion contract is “certain performance” or “optimistic estimate” is uncertain.
Here’s a particularly interesting contrast:
Institutions always talk about "patient capital, long-term layout, sticking to hard tech"
Retail investors always think "deliver first, no fulfillment is just empty talk"
It’s not that retail investors have a small vision, they’re just scared by cycles.
To put it plainly:
SanDisk’s good news is real, but uncertainty is real too.
No need for blind hype, nor blind criticism.
The real trump card isn’t the big jump on the chart, but:
Subsequent delivery progress, quarterly report fulfillment, order landing status.
Stories can be told for a moment, but performance sustains a lifetime.
🔥 Let’s chat:
Which side are you on?
Do you think SanDisk’s move this time is a real market breakthrough, or just a hype-driven pump?
#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
US July inflation data both cooled more than expected: CPI year-on-year dropped to 3.4%, PPI year-on-year dropped to 4.7%, and month-on-month unexpectedly remained flat, with falling energy prices being the "top contributor" to the cooling. Coupled with recent weak employment data, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have sharply declined, with the probability of maintaining the current rate rising to about 68%.
However, the surface moderation in data cannot hide underlying contradictions. Core PPI excluding food and energy actually accelerated month-on-month, showing that underlying price pressures remain firm. This directly led to further public division within the Fed: hawkish Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester bluntly stated "a rate hike is necessary now" to curb broad inflation; while dovish Chicago Fed President Charles Evans believes that if temporary shocks like energy fade, inflation could return to the "golden path" of 2%.
Wall Street institutions are also in turmoil: Bank of America aggressively predicts three more hikes this year, while mainstream investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan lean toward "holding steady" for the year.
Although cooling inflation brings the market some relief, structural issues remain unresolved. The upcoming August core PCE data and the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium will be key factors to break the deadlock. Until the Fed truly signals a shift, market battles between bulls and bears will continue.