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[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
This earnings season is explosively strong! 86% of companies in the S&P 500 have exceeded profit expectations, with overall growth hitting the highest level since 2021—these numbers are truly historic.
But why is Wall Street still holding back? Because there are three walls blocking the way—
First, only AI is making money. This guy alone accounts for half of the S&P 500's EPS growth this year; the rest of the companies only grew by 2%, the whole class relying on the top student to pull up the average.
Second, valuations can't be pushed any higher. The P/E ratio has dropped from 26x to below 22x; the index's rise is fully supported by real earnings, while valuations are actually shrinking—like Pharaoh's pyramid getting taller but without adding more bricks.
Third, macro conditions aren't helping. The 10-year US Treasury yield is stuck at 4.63%, and oil prices remain stubbornly high. History shows that when commodities rise, corporate profits suffer.
So Wall Street's target price of 7894 isn't because they don't see profits, but because everything is "just right" now—so perfect that there's no room for even a grain of sand.
The market is moving from "buying expectations" into a "verification phase"; the direction is correct but the space is limited. Good trades are waited for, not chased.
Pharaoh's treasure is reserved for those with patience. $BTC $ETH $BEAT #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ BTC holding around $63,290 while volume dries up is not a clean risk-on signal. ETH’s modest outperformance and SOL’s slight decline point to selective positioning, not broad conviction across crypto.
The more important macro tension sits between weak consumption and the AI capital cycle. With the Fed split and AI infrastructure earnings under scrutiny, I would treat current resilience as fragile until participation expands beyond a narrow set of assets.
Just my read, not advice.$BTC remains bullish as long as it doesn't break below 62,000
Support to watch below: 62,200-62,000
Resistance above: around 64,000
News
Inflation data cools down, but risk appetite remains limited
The US July CPI released on August 12 showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year (the smallest increase since February), and PPI was flat month-on-month, below the expected 0.2%. After inflation cooled, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September eased significantly — the probability of maintaining rates rose to 67.6%.
However, note that the positive news has not translated into a broad risk appetite recovery. Xangle's research report points out that although inflation is slowing, uncertainty about the interest rate path remains. Buying is relatively concentrated in Bitcoin; mainstream altcoins like Ethereum have not seen significant capital rotation. The crypto market is currently in a "liquidity expectation" and "geopolitical risk" intertwined dual environment.
Regulatory: SEC meeting abruptly canceled
The SEC suddenly canceled the crypto regulatory rules meeting originally scheduled for last Friday, which was planned to advance the Reg Crypto proposal and innovation exemption arrangements. This may be related to the repeatedly delayed CLARITY Act. Regulatory uncertainty adds short-term variables.
Institutional sentiment remains cautious
10x Research notes that stablecoins continue to flow out of the crypto market. Strategy, once one of the most stable buyers, has been a seller for four consecutive weeks. However, there are positive signals — Vivek Ramaswamy's Strive announced an increase in Bitcoin holdings, managing assets worth $1 billion.
Geopolitics: Oil prices fall but risks remain
WTI crude oil has dropped from around $100/barrel at the beginning of the month to the $81 range, easing inflationary pressure. But tensions in the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran persist, and risk premiums remain due to Houthi attacks on Saudi refinery facilities.
The current market is in a "weak balance" state — inflation cooling brings relief, with narrow oscillation between $62,000-$66,000, favoring selling high and buying low within the range.
The above are personal views for reference only
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #CLARITY表决待定，SEC规则未落地 #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ The South Korean stock market suddenly has AI core assets, with the roles of $000660.KS and $005930.KS becoming increasingly clear.
This line of Korean stocks cannot be ignored recently. As the AI market has developed, the valuation of core US stocks is no longer cheap, so capital naturally looks for second- and third-tier opportunities in the global supply chain. The most unique aspect of the Korean market is that it is not just superficially riding the AI wave; it truly has two core names on the table: $000660.KS and $005930.KS.
The story of $000660.KS is sharper. SK Hynix's lead in HBM makes it an indispensable supplier in NVIDIA's AI factory roadmap. AI chips are not just GPUs; HBM is almost a part of the performance bottleneck. No matter how strong your computing power is, if the memory bandwidth can't keep up, system efficiency will be constrained. Therefore, Hynix is seen by the market as a direct beneficiary of AI computing power expansion. This is not just sentiment but determined by its position in the supply chain.
The story of $005930.KS is more complex. Samsung has storage, smartphones, foundry, packaging, panels, and consumer electronics. Complexity means purity is not as high as Hynix, but it also means there is more room for recovery. In the past, the market was dissatisfied with Samsung mainly due to HBM rhythm, foundry competition, and business complexity dragging down valuation. But if Samsung gradually improves in HBM customer validation, advanced packaging, storage pricing, and AI collaboration, its rebound will look more like a valuation recovery of a comprehensive tech giant rather than the elasticity of a single storage stock.
So the Korean AI stock chain cannot be lumped together. $000660.KS is like a high-purity HBM asset, suitable for discussing AI server bottlenecks; $005930.KS is like a low-expectation comprehensive tech giant, suitable for discussing recovery and catch-up. One relies on leadership, the other on improvement. The market will prefer different things at different stages. When AI sentiment is hottest, capital chases the sharp edge; when the market spreads, capital looks for scale and lagging recovery.
But the Korean market also has its own risks. Foreign capital flows, the Korean won exchange rate, global tech stock volatility, and US chip export and supply chain policies all affect it. Korean stocks are not simply a "cheap version of US AI stocks"; they have higher cyclical elasticity and stronger external variables.
Entering the week of August 17, if US AI stocks continue to fluctuate, the Korean memory chain will instead become a direction for capital observation. Because if the AI market spreads from GPU to memory, Korea is not a marginal market but a core supply base. In the past, everyone only focused on buying $NVDA for AI; now more mature capital will ask: who provides the most critical memory for $NVDA? Once this question arises, Korean stocks will attract flow. The price trends of H or similar new coin groups are likely to be consumed as fuel for derivative positions. Have you confirmed that the essence of a surge is not a directional signal but a chain of liquidations? The original post points out two key points. First, the expectation that a specific coin (referred to as H) will become the next leading stock in the rise. Second, imitation coins with similar themes repeatedly follow patterns that induce short selling at their highs after surges. This means that this is not just a simple price prediction, but that market participants' position actions must be read in a way that precedes or distorts prices. From the perspective of the derivatives market, this pattern is interpreted with clear logic. If funding overheats during a sharp rise, the cost for new buyers to maintain their long positions increases, and when selling pressure arises, short liquidations occur before the price falls. In other words, at the beginning of the rise, a short squeeze accelerates the rise, and when the funding burden for long positions peaks, it becomes the cause of a sharp drop. Currently, the market for this cycle SanDisk surged from 1190 to 1775 in this wave, a nearly 50% rebound in two weeks, with the core catalyst being the Investor Day on August 13.
Investor Day shook the market, valuation logic shifts
Management presented a long-term financial model: FY2028 to FY2030 revenue growth in the mid-to-high double digits, non-GAAP gross margin around 80%, operating margin close to 75%, and 100% excess cash returned to shareholders after investments. A storage chip company daring to claim an 80% gross margin led the market to immediately reprice.
$93.9 billion long-term agreement locks in minimum revenue
The company has signed NBM long-term supply agreements with 8 data center customers, with a total contract value of about $93.9 billion and an average term of over 4 years. This covers more than 50% of capacity in fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal 2028. This means that even if NAND spot prices pull back, a significant portion of revenue and profit is protected. This is the first time a storage company has gained multi-year demand visibility.
Institutions collectively raise target prices
JPMorgan upgraded its rating from Neutral to Overweight with a target price of $2250. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating with a target price of $2200. UBS set a target price of $1750, and Mizuho raised theirs to $1900. The market consensus target price is around $2000.
AI inference opens a new demand ceiling
AI model inference generates a large amount of KV Cache data, driving some workloads to shift from the more expensive DRAM to NAND. SanDisk positions SSDs as the Token Battery for AI inference, and by 2026, AI inference will push enterprise SSDs to become NAND's largest downstream application market. On the supply side, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won stated that even if capacity doubles in the next five years, demand may still not be met.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
Market data: On August 13, Investor Day, SanDisk surged over 13% to close at $1528, then rose another 7.39% on August 14 to close at $1641, with a trading volume of $33.9 billion, topping the US stock market for the first time. In two weeks, it pulled back from 1000 to 1775, a rebound of over 70%.
The essence of this rally is the market switching SanDisk's valuation framework. Previously, the focus was on the NAND cycle peak leading to low valuation; now it is on structural demand in the AI inference era + visibility locked by long-term agreements + shareholder return commitments. These three logics combined redefine the ceiling. $BTC $ETH $OKB
The above analysis is timely; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck.One-third of $MU's business is mobile consumer storage, with a gross margin exceeding 87%.
Some time ago, Apple attempted to purchase Chinese chips but was unsurprisingly rejected by the White House.
This also includes $SNDK, as both Changxin and Changcun are eyeing the market closely. However, since they are on the U.S. defense list, this weakens the expectation of supply substitution from China, which is a good thing for the bargaining power of the entire storage industry.#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Everyone, BTC's current state is a bit like the calm before the storm.
The latest report from 10xResearch is very straightforward: Bitcoin trading volume has clearly shrunk, the price volatility range has narrowed to a multi-month low, and implied volatility is also at rock bottom. Meanwhile, BTC ETF inflows are weak, and stablecoin funds continue to flow out of the crypto market. Both spot and leveraged sides are shrinking in volume, and the market truly lacks direction.
ETH, on the other hand, has a story to tell. Data from DWF Labs shows that ETH spot ETFs have outperformed BTC since June, with net inflows by fund size in July about 9.4 times that of BTC. Funds are indeed tilting towards ETH.
But institutions have not completely exited BTC. UBS significantly increased its IBIT call options in Q2, while slightly increasing its IBIT spot holdings. This indicates that institutions are not bearish on BTC but are waiting for a clearer direction before participating with options tools.
Mi Ge's view is simple: BTC's low volatility will not last forever. When the macro environment provides a new direction, volatility will expand again. ETH's relative strength is a fact, but it does not necessarily mean BTC is failing; it more likely indicates the market is temporarily seeking new trading logic. $BTC $ETH $BEAT
What do you all think about the next direction? Will BTC move first, or will ETH continue to lead? Wishing everyone a smooth trading week.#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
I am the mid-term intelligence analyst. BTC trading volume has shrunk to the lowest level since 2019, and ETFs have seen a brief net outflow, which looks alarming, but I firmly believe in a mid-term upward trend. The volume contraction is not a sign of a crash; it is the final compression phase—selling pressure is exhausted, profit-taking supply is near the bear market bottom, and miner sell pressure is retreating. All three selling pressures are dying down.
No need to panic about ETFs: from August 3 to 7, five days attracted 853 million in funds, with IBIT alone swallowing 690 million in one week, accounting for 80%. On the 11th, IBIT absorbed another 50.2 million. The money hasn't left the market; it's just concentrating in top wrappers, indicating maturation rather than withdrawal. The rate hike expectations were crushed by weak non-farm payrolls, the Clarity Act is moving to a full vote, and macro plus regulatory anchors are firmly setting the bottom.
My judgment: 62K-65K is the institutional cost zone. After volume contraction finishes, the direction must be chosen, with the probability of going up far greater than down. Lock in mid-term base positions; only add, never reduce, on a pullback to 62K. Confirm the second leg up with volume reclaiming 67,500, targeting 70K first. This level is not an escape hatch but a boarding point.
$BTC
$ETH Shocking! After SanDisk's surge, a "crocodile mouth" pattern appears, with giant whale shorts already lurking! Is a 1-hour level reversal imminent?
Others fear while I am greedy, but when the whales are greedy, I am fearful.
Senior analyst perspective: divergence between technical and capital aspects
Brothers, SanDisk has rebounded over 70% from the bottom, and the daily chart indeed shows an intact bullish structure. However, the 1-hour chart shows signs of weakness in volume and price — price consolidates at a high level, MACD shows a bearish divergence, and RSI, although high, is severely dulled. More importantly, SNDK is now the largest stock-type perpetual contract by position size in the crypto market.
The liquidation map shows dense long liquidations above, while the whale positions are even more intriguing: the top ten addresses are dominated by shorts, and smart money has opened 10x short positions around $1553, currently floating with profits. Combined with suspicions that SanDisk's release of a 93.9 billion long-term agreement and aggressive financial targets have exhausted positive catalysts, chasing longs here has very low cost-effectiveness.
Trading strategy: mainly short on highs, supplement with longs on lows
Primary strategy (short): If the 1-hour close breaks below 1650, lightly enter short positions targeting 1610 (a dense chip area).
Secondary strategy (long): Do not chase longs unless there is a volume breakout and a stable hold above 1700 accompanied by whale short liquidations. If the pullback to 1600 holds, small long positions can be tried for a rebound.
One last question: Will you choose to "short" with the whales this round, or bet on a "breakout" trend? See you in the comments! #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ $SNDK #BTC trading volume shrinks, can ETF buying rebound? There is an interesting contradiction in the current crypto market: prices haven't crashed, and sentiment isn't exactly panic, but clearly, there isn't enough money. As of August 17 Beijing time, $BTC is still fluctuating around $63,200. The biggest change in recent weeks isn't the price movement but the thinning trading volume, continuously compressed volatility, and the increasing lack of follow-through after breakouts. At the beginning of August, Deribit's BTC DVOL once dropped to around 35, and data from DWF Labs also shows BTC implied volatility ranking near a 52-week low. Low volatility itself doesn't mean risk has disappeared; it more so indicates the market is waiting for new pricing variables. This is why I believe the real focus going forward isn't simply guessing whether the next $BTC candle will go up or down, but rather: Will the next batch of incremental funds still prioritize buying $BTC? If not, where will they go? The problem with $BTC isn't a lack of bullish interest but a shortage of sustained buying pressure. ETFs remain the most important capital flow to watch for $BTC. In the first week of August, the US spot BTC ETF actually saw a noticeable inflow, totaling about $754 million, indicating institutional funds haven't completely exited. But recently, the market has started discussing a cooling in ETF demand because even with periodic inflows, the price still hasn't shown the full positive feedback loop of “ETF buying → spot breakout → leveraged chasing.” Even more noteworthy#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
BTC has recently stalled around 64,000–65,000, with spot 24h trading volume down 10%–16% week-over-week, a typical "price down, volume down" scenario. On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows for 5 consecutive days from 8/3 to 8/7, totaling about $854 million for the week, the strongest week since mid-April, with IBIT alone taking 81%. Money is coming in, volume is shrinking, indicating it's not retail rushing in but institutions quietly accumulating under low liquidity.
• Since 2026, BTC ETFs have still had a cumulative net outflow of about $4.4 billion; the $850 million inflow only partially fills the big withdrawal gap from Q2;
• Inflows are highly concentrated in IBIT/FBTC, with small and mid-sized ETFs not following, lacking breadth;
• The Fear and Greed Index is stuck at 25–30 "extreme fear," retail hasn't returned, and trading volume is the second lowest since October 2024;
• Starting 8/10, single-day net outflows reappeared, so the continuity of buying remains to be tested.
① Can IBIT sustain 10 consecutive days of positive inflows (daily > $100 million)?
② Can BTC break above and hold 65,500 with volume expansion, rather than hitting resistance on shrinking volume?
③ Macro — September rate cut expectations + CLARITY Act vote in September will determine whether institutions dare to upgrade "tactical dips" to "strategic accumulation."
ETF buying is a "bottom-level recovery," not a "trend-level reversal." Until volume expands, every upper wick above 65,000 represents a tug-of-war between trapped holders and institutions buying the dip. Retail now is not betting on courage but on the ETF's ability to renew subscriptions. In January 2025, Bitcoin broke through 109,588, signaling the end of the phase bull market, and then kept falling until it bottomed out in April.
During the same period, Ethereum dropped from 4,100 to a brutal 1,385.
Looking back now, one should have liquidated in time before January.
But in the real environment, selling is a very difficult event, even harder than bottom-fishing in a bear market.
Let's see what happened at that time.
Institutions unanimously expected $200,000: Bernstein, Standard Chartered, ARK, and Deutsche Bank almost simultaneously released reports setting a $200,000 Bitcoin target for 2025, citing triple drivers of pension inflows, deeper institutional allocation, and policy friendliness.
Trump’s policies had just begun: The market generally believed his inauguration was only the starting point, with a series of policy benefits to come, including stablecoin legislation, 401k pension market entry, and Bitcoin strategic reserves; the narrative was far from being realized.
ETF funds kept flowing in: In January, spot ETF net inflows totaled $5.3 billion, with BlackRock’s single product attracting $3.2 billion, showing continuous institutional buying.
The four-year cycle model said the top was still early: The halving was in April 2024, and historically the top occurs 12–18 months after halving, i.e., mid to late 2025. January was only the 9th month, so according to this model, it was not the top but mid-mountain.
These views were not fabricated after the fact; they were public information seen daily at the time. Being in that environment, one would naturally feel the bull market was still early, just mid-mountain, making it hard to proactively think the market was ending.
This is the first hurdle: The whole world was full of good news, no reason to sell.
More importantly, the mainstream interpretation of the January drop was "picking up passengers in reverse" and deleveraging to lighten the vehicle for an upward path.
Because each bull market’s main upward wave experiences two or three sideways consolidations, each consolidation is feared as a bear market start, but in reality, these are temporary adjustments. However, repeated occurrences cause a "wolf cry" effect, so when the real bear market drop comes, people mistake it for just a correction, forming a mental imprint.
This is the second hurdle: Ignoring risk, all declines are inherently recognized as shakeouts.
We all know the bear market drop before April 2025 was due to Trump’s tariff policies.
But at the start of 2025, almost no one considered tariffs as the core variable accelerating the bear market.
Only when the first large-scale implementation caused a crash in February 2025 did the market start to take it seriously; by April, global reciprocal tariffs were fully implemented, and Bitcoin bottomed out. During the same period, altcoins fell for a full four months, with declines up to 80%.
This is the third hurdle: You cannot know the real bear market major negative news during the bull market, but it will inevitably appear.
Therefore, trying to cash out timely during a bull market relying on so-called news and analysis is inherently very difficult. When it’s time to sell, the whole world is full of good news; when bad news really comes, the bear market is already halfway through, making selling even harder because people are loss-averse.
So don’t put too much energy into narratives and news.
What really matters is focusing on chip structure, which brings us back to our old view.
The fundamental reason the bull market ends is buy-side exhaustion.
The fundamental factor causing buy-side silence is "price consensus."
In 2025, Ethereum consolidated around 3,800; when it broke below that consolidation, most started to fear, but the next day it recovered and then surged without looking back, breaking through 4,700.
The critical moment came after that 3,800 consolidation ended, with continuous good news, especially Tom Lee repeatedly saying Ethereum would break 10,000 by year-end. Everyone knew he was exaggerating; most thought 6,000–8,000 was a reasonable target. Then a price anchor formed: Ethereum would reach 6,000. News spread, more people believed that price, more buyers appeared, and eventually buy-side exhaustion occurred, ending the bull market.
So, when a price consensus forms, it’s time to start reducing positions, selling more as prices rise, selling regularly, just like dollar-cost averaging but reversed into selling.
Because you hold a position, you are part of the market, and your thoughts represent the public’s thoughts, so you will have the same price anchor as the public. The difference is your action becomes selling, not continuing to believe like the public.
So I summarize the following detailed points:
1. Everyone firmly believes the bull market has arrived.
2. The public begins to reach consensus on a higher price anchor.
3. Declines are no longer feared, seen as mere corrections and deleveraging.
When these signals appear, ignore all good news, sell decisively, don’t fear selling early. Selling early means you still have rationality. The truly scary thing is the top; selling feels like betrayal, like being wrong, and you might even buy back, causing greater losses.
I believe in these words: "Selling too early always profits; escaping the top is a disaster."
Now the bear market has reached August; the bull market will definitely come. The purpose of writing this article is to prepare for the next bull market.
I hope to stay clear-headed at the end of the bull market and timely lock in profits.
In crypto, compounding comes from realization, not necessarily long-term holding. SanDisk rose from 1226 to 1775, a 45% surge in two weeks. Lao Mo breaks down the explosive growth logic for you. SanDisk's latest price is 1711, with an intraday high of 1775. Starting from the low point of 1226 after the August 5 earnings report, it has rebounded over 540 points in two weeks, with trading volume topping the US stock market.
The core catalyst is only one: the August 13 Investor Day. But the amount of information is enough for the market to digest for a whole week.
First, the long-term targets are explosive. The 2028-2030 fiscal year model: gross margin about 80%, operating profit margin about 75%, free cash flow margin about 50%. For NAND, a traditional cyclical industry, an 80% gross margin is disruptive.
Second, NBM's long-term contracts are restructuring the business model. Eight customers have signed contracts totaling $94 billion, covering 50% of shipments in fiscal 2027 and two-thirds in fiscal 2028. SanDisk is transforming from a "spot-cycle stock" to a "long-term contract growth stock."
Third, HBF is an additional option. The first chip has been taped out and will be delivered to customers in 2027. It is not included in the financial model—if successful, it will be pure incremental growth.
Fourth, 100% excess cash is returned to shareholders. Remaining buyback capacity is about $15.5 billion, which Goldman Sachs says "far exceeds peers."
Analysts collectively raised target prices: Goldman Sachs 2200, JPMorgan 2250, Bank of America 2500. The mid-to-long-term logic remains intact, but after a 45% rise in two weeks, the cost-performance ratio for chasing higher prices is declining.
Did you catch this SanDisk surge? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Bitcoin is getting quieter, but the capital picture is not one-way.
10x Research says BTC volume has contracted, its trading range is at a multi-month low and implied volatility remains subdued. In a late-July snapshot, K33 estimated average daily spot volume at about $2.2B, putting the month on track for its weakest level since November 2023.
The slowdown extended beyond spot:
· CME BTC futures open interest was near levels last seen in 2023
· Perpetual futures open interest had stalled around 300,000 BTC
· The options put/call open-interest ratio fell from 0.76 in late June to about 0.52, suggesting less demand for downside hedges, though this alone does not indicate direction
The flow picture is also splitting:
· 10x sees broader BTC ETF demand as weak despite a recent rebound
· DWF Labs reports July ETH ETF inflows equal to 3.19% of fund size, versus 0.34% for BTC, a difference of around 9.4x in relative flow intensity
· 10x interprets stablecoin outflows as a sign that some liquidity may be moving outside crypto
Institutional positioning adds another layer. UBS increased its reported spot IBIT holdings from 364,371 shares in Q1 to 407,890 in Q2. Its reported call exposure rose from 80,000 to 1.95M underlying shares.
However, these Q2 holdings reflect positions as of June 30. Form 13F does not disclose option strikes, expiries or whether calls form part of a hedge, so the data should not be treated as a real-time directional signal.
July is historically one of BTC’s quieter trading months, meaning seasonality may explain part of the slowdown. Still, thin participation can leave prices more sensitive to the next ETF flow, macro surprise or positioning shift.
Which signal matters most for BTC’s next move: spot volume, ETF flows or volatility?
#BTCVolumeDriesUp #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ #AI巨头估值大战，正在间接影响加密市场🚨
The valuation battle between OpenAI and Anthropic is intensifying, with AI primary market valuations continuously reaching new heights.
This situation brings three concrete impacts to the crypto space:
① Liquidity is being siphoned off
SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic—several giants combined have valuations exceeding 3.6 trillion, all heading to the public markets.
Institutional funds will be heavily attracted by the hot AI IPOs, making crypto assets comparatively less appealing. As long as the AI IPO boom continues, the crypto market will face short-term liquidity pressure.
② Narrative bidirectional linkage, opportunities and risks coexist
Many AI concept tokens in crypto share the same AI growth story.
If Anthropic successfully goes public with a 2 trillion valuation, it will raise the ceiling for the entire AI sector, benefiting crypto AI projects with real-world applications through valuation uplift.
Conversely, if the AI valuation bubble bursts and capital re-evaluates profitability, the correction risk will spill over to the tech sector, and crypto AI tokens will also be affected.
③ Establishing a new valuation benchmark
After the IPOs of these two AI giants, the market will form a complete set of evaluation criteria: how to value AI companies, how to monetize, and how to account for profits.
This standard will spill over into the crypto field; protocols with real cash flow will be re-priced, while projects relying solely on storytelling without actual output will be rapidly cleared out.
My personal understanding:
In the short term, AI giants going public will squeeze funds from the crypto market.
But in the long run, behind the trillion-dollar valuations, Wall Street is pricing computing power with real money.
OpenAI and Anthropic consume GPU computing power; Bitcoin itself is a carrier of computing power.
The more money the AI industry burns and the more the value of computing power is confirmed, the more Bitcoin’s fundamental narrative will be reinforced. The underlying logic of both is actually connected.
So here’s the question: do you think the AI bull market will ultimately benefit or burden the crypto market?
$BTC $ETH
#Crypto Conclusion first: Global assets will resonate and charge towards a double top next year.
I reviewed two benchmarks:
The god of value investing - gold
The god of speculation - BTC
1. Slope
After the final stage of the main upward wave ends with a nearly 90-degree rise and a subsequent correction, it is almost always followed by a secondary top formation. Gold has experienced this in three consecutive rounds, and for BTC, I selected the previous cycle which is more representative. This current cycle did not show a terminal 90-degree rise. See my chart below for details.
PS: A 90-degree slope represents: extreme buying with low turnover, extreme FOMO sentiment, valuation extremely detached from fundamentals, and extreme leverage.
2. Correction amplitude
Gold's average correction amplitude is about 25%, with an upward amplitude of about 20%.
BTC's correction amplitude: 55%, upward amplitude: 128%.
Micron's current correction amplitude: 41%, expected future upward amplitude: over 150%.
3. Timing
Regarding the current time node, the AI stock sector's A-shares won't rebound quickly after a sharp drop; it needs time to digest. BTC has been in a bear market for nearly a year, and the second half of the year is the time to confirm the bottom, which will likely bottom out before the US stock market.
Notably, there are still 3 months until the midterm elections. Historically, there is always a big correction before midterms, and the stock market has a 100% probability of rising after the elections. I have also included a chart below.
4. The necessity of charging to a new top next year
This AI rally started at the GPT moment, but OPENAI has not yet gone public, nor has Anthropic. They will most likely IPO next year. So, with a beginning and an end, the most beautiful story must bloom at the highest point. Therefore, I tend to believe that after adjustments in the second half of this year, there will be at least one crazy charge to a new top next year.
More detailed supplements can be seen in the charts I posted. I believe the probability of a double top is very high.
My personal strategy is roughly to bottom-fish BTC and second-stage AI-related stocks in the second half of the year, and sell at the high point next year.
As for whether this will develop into an eternal bull market, that's hard to say. Let's first take advantage of the high-certainty double top. This article is just a starting point for discussion; different opinions are welcome to share and exchange.
$btc
$xau BTC has been trading in a narrow range between $62,800 and $63,000, with weekend volume further shrinking. On the surface, it seems calm, but position accumulation near $63,000 has become quite extreme, and an external catalyst could break the balance at any time.
The focus this week is not on technicals but on two policy events:
1. August 19 FOMC minutes (July 9-3 voting split)
2. On the same day, a White House meeting with executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and others, with Trump expected to attend. Against the backdrop of obstacles to the Clarity Act, this dialogue carries greater signaling significance.
Independent observation: The current sideways movement is pricing in "policy clarity." CPI meeting expectations but failing to ignite a rebound indicates macro data alone can no longer drive direction. What can truly change risk appetite is whether there is substantive progress in the US regulatory framework.
Meanwhile, the leak of Trezor + SafePal order data stands out more during price calm—keys were not lost, but identity addresses were exposed. "Device security" and "operational security" are two different matters. During low volatility periods, these structural risks often deserve more advance preparation than price fluctuations.
If clear signals come from the policy side, volatility will return; otherwise, sideways trading may extend. Clarifying position structure and safety boundaries is more important than guessing short-term price moves.
NFA
#Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptocurrency #MarketAnalysis #FOMC #RegulatoryPolicy #HardwareWallet #SelfCustody 📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Express (August 17)
According to liquidation data, the whale played a textbook-level "short-term full squeeze → long-term full short squeeze" harvesting strategy on ETH, switching directions decisively, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $14.85 million.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $1.1609 million $477,700 $683,200
4 hours $5.7208 million $1.4194 million $4.3014 million
12 hours $14.7591 million $8.1911 million $6.568 million
24 hours $14.8582 million $8.2529 million $6.6053 million
From the $ETH liquidation data, in 1 hour short liquidations crushed longs, shorts were 1.43 times longs, the squeeze unfolded with nuclear-level intensity, liquidation volume $1.1609 million—shorts dominated the short term, longs were directly crushed; in 4 hours shorts continued to crush, shorts were 3 times longs, squeeze intensity exploded at nuclear level, liquidation volume jumped from $1.16 million to $5.72 million—shorts went all out, longs were completely crushed; at 12 hours the direction completely reversed, long liquidations crushed shorts, longs were 1.25 times shorts, the whale completed a fierce turn from squeeze to short squeeze, liquidation volume soared to $14.75 million—longs began to take over, shorts were continuously harvested; at 24 hours longs continued to crush, long liquidations $8.2529 million vs. shorts $6.6053 million, longs were 1.25 times shorts, cumulative liquidations exceeded $14.85 million—the whale completed a perfect harvesting path of "short-term full squeeze → long-term full short squeeze" on ETH, short-term shorts frantically squeezed, long-term longs counterattacked, a textbook-level double kill, profiting from both sides. But importantly, the long crushing ratio remained stable at 1.25 times from 12 to 24 hours, the short squeeze momentum tends to stabilize, longs and shorts entered a relatively balanced range. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
⚠️ Risk Warning: ETH short-term squeeze (1H/4H) and long-term short squeeze (12H/24H) form a sharp directional switch; 4-hour liquidations account for 38% of the daily total, concentration is high, market volatility is extremely intense. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, avoid chasing highs or panic selling, strictly control positions and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 17
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: macro signals are split, the market is undergoing a "data clash" pricing reconstruction—consumption is retreating, earnings are surging, leverage is gambling.
📉 Consumption Momentum Weakens: No Hope for Rate Cuts, No Dare to Raise
US consumption continuously signals cooling. July retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month, the largest drop in 14 months, far below the expected 0.1% growth; core retail also declined 0.6%, missing expectations. By category, gas station sales dropped sharply 4.9% month-on-month due to falling oil prices, large-ticket items like furniture, cars, electronics were generally weak, only online sales barely maintained positive growth. The rapid decline in consumption momentum echoes the unexpected negative July nonfarm payrolls—the "double decline" in labor market and consumer spending is reinforcing each other.
But inflation stickiness still locks policy space. July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, core CPI 2.5%; PPI fell to 4.7% year-on-year, but service costs hit the largest increase of the year, inflation cooling is not a straight line down. CME data shows September rate hike probability dropped to about 33%, sharply contrasting with the 12% low after June CPI release—the market’s inflation worries have never truly faded. No move is not because it’s enough, but because it dares not move.
📈 S&P Earnings Beat Expectations: Why Only Look at 7894 Points?
US Q2 earnings season delivered impressive results. S&P 500 constituents’ Q2 earnings grew 31% year-on-year, far exceeding early-year expectations; overall earnings beat expectations by 7.4%, over 90% of companies reporting earnings saw growth.
But Wall Street strategists have raised the year-end S&P 500 average target to 7894 points—only about 1% upside from current all-time highs. Full-year earnings growth expectations have been raised from 15% to 27%, but valuation expansion space is fully priced in. For the index to hit new highs, it requires continuous "outperformance" rather than steady "meeting expectations."
📊 ETF Buying Reversal: BTC Leverage Positions Reaccumulate
Bitcoin ETF fund flows fluctuate sharply. After a net inflow of about $1.1 billion from August 3 to 7, there was a net outflow of about $329 million from August 10 to 14. Ethereum ETF weakened simultaneously, with net inflows of only $16.4 million in the same period.
More noteworthy is leverage—CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin futures open interest surged by $2 billion in the second week of August. If Bitcoin falls below $58,500, a large amount of leveraged positions may trigger forced liquidations. Buying reversal and leverage buildup are signs of intensified long-short battles.
💎 Summary
Consumption retreats, earnings surge, leverage gambles—the weakness in consumption and inflation stickiness form a macro "stagflation" dilemma; earnings beat expectations and narrow target price space form a valuation contradiction; buying reversal and leverage rebuilding form the tension in the crypto market’s game. No hope for rate cuts, no dare to raise, earnings rising, leverage building—the market is pricing the second half of 2026 in the most divided way. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
#SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓
#标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ As of August 17 Beijing time, $BTC is still fluctuating around $63,000. The price has declined somewhat over the past week, and spot ETF funds have weakened again. At least based on the current fund structure, the market has not yet entered the stage of "blindly buying risk assets." The most noteworthy aspect of this round of the market is not that a certain sector suddenly saw a big bullish candle, but whether the money is still in the market and where it is preparing to go. Currently, the total market capitalization of stablecoins remains high. Although there has been a slight decline in the past week, there is no obvious large-scale capital withdrawal from the crypto market. In other words, many funds may not have exited but are instead waiting and watching. This is very important. The most common misjudgment in the mid-to-late bull market phase is seeing a few coins rise and thinking that a "full altcoin season" is about to arrive. But real capital rotation usually does not happen overnight; it starts from low-risk, highly liquid assets and gradually spreads toward higher Beta directions. $BTC remains the most important liquidity anchor for institutional funds. As long as ETF funds do not stabilize and flow back in, the overall market risk appetite will be difficult to truly open up. However, compared to that, $ETH's position is starting to become interesting. In recent periods, ETH ETF funds have clearly outperformed BTC, indicating that institutions are not completely unwilling to increase risk but are trying to find more flexible allocation directions beyond BTC. The problem is that on-chain data has not yet fully confirmed a trend reversal, so what really needs to be watched here is not the inflow on a single day$SNDK I originally wanted to short near the previous high, but this "needle spike" almost sent me to the grave.
On the 15-minute chart, the price is still above EMA20 and EMA60, and the MACD is also in a bullish structure, but the RSI has already reached 79.88, clearly overbought in the short term. What's more notable is that when this spike appeared, the volume surged to about 20 times the 20-bar average, indicating that this was not an ordinary fluctuation but a fierce battle between bulls and bears at a high level.
Currently around 1710, the first resistance to watch is near 1775 above, and below, we need to see if 1653 can hold.
The most frustrating thing about this position is: it looks strong, but chasing it easily gets you caught by spikes.
What do you think about this move just now? Was it a shakeout of long positions, or has high-level distribution already begun?
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 拿传统收入估值硬套比特币，我觉得会失真。首页已经开始讨论“加密估值转向收入”，但当前可见比特币约63.06K、下跌0.04%，以太坊约1.88K、下跌0.22%，价格暂时没有出现重新定价的迹象。 判断比特币是否获得更高估值，我更愿意交叉看三项：ETF净流入能否持续、长期持有者供应是否明显变化，以及链上结算与手续费是否同步活跃。只讲收入而忽略稀缺性和资金流，结论很容易偏。你认为哪项指标最适合给比特币定价？$ETH $BTC In the micro game of trading psychology, when a group has been trapped for months and has experienced multiple panic washouts, the strongest obsession in their minds is no longer to make double profits, but the extremely humble four words — "break even and run".
Therefore, whenever the market rebounds near the cost line of short-term holders' positions, a massive amount of chips eager to break even will instantly flood the chain.
These speculators who have endured the panic period will rush to place sell orders to break even, forming an extremely heavy iceberg resistance band on the market. If at this time there is no off-exchange new spot buying volume several times larger than this (such as a violent net inflow from ETFs) to forcibly absorb this part of the break-even orders, the momentum of the rebound will be completely exhausted by this selling pressure in a very short time.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 ⚠️Epic rebound but crazy short selling! Is the big chip AI rally all an illusion?
Recently, the most bizarre scene in the global tech market has appeared📉
The South Korean stock market has staged an extraordinary recovery, with the main index rising 6% in a month, the tech startup board soaring 20%, and chip and AI concept stocks collectively regaining ground, seemingly signaling a bull market restart.
But institutional shorts are not buying it at all; instead, they are aggressively increasing their short positions against the trend!
Latest data: The outstanding short balance in the South Korean stock market has surged to 19 trillion KRW, a 14% monthly increase, up 2.27 trillion KRW since the end of July.
The higher it rises, the more shorts increase; the more it rebounds, the more the market is hammered down. This operation directly tears apart the false facade of this tech rebound.
Many retail investors are fooled by the big gains, thinking the AI chip downside is fully priced in and a new rally has begun. But institutions see it very clearly:
This surge is just an oversold technical rebound, not a fundamental reversal!
The core hidden risks from last month's market crash remain unresolved: doubts about AI investment profitability, weak downstream chip demand, and the persistent high risk of a peak in the entire memory chip industry.
Here is the breakdown of the most critical underlying logic:
1. The rally is driven by leverage, not supported by earnings
The South Korean stock market is highly tied to the two memory giants Samsung and SK Hynix, relying on leveraged funds and sentiment-driven rebounds without real orders or revenue support, a typical sentiment bubble.
2. Shorts increasing = institutions hedging early
Professional funds never bet on sentiment; continuous shorting indicates institutions anticipate further correction risks. The current high valuations offer very poor risk-reward and could trigger profit-taking sell-offs anytime.
3. Chip cycle inflection point not reached
Memory chips are a highly cyclical sector; sharp rises and falls are normal. The industry is only temporarily stabilizing, not fully out of the down cycle. Once sentiment fades, the decline will be severe.
Core market-wide impacts
✅ Stock market/chip sector: This AI and memory rebound is a bull trap; avoid chasing highs at elevated levels. A likely volatile pullback will follow, with tech stock risks outweighing opportunities.
✅ Crypto AI memory sector: Sentiment in A-shares and Korean chip stocks directly affects AI memory tokens like SNDK. When the stock bubble bursts, alt memory tokens will be the first to feel the pressure. Avoid chasing overbought targets.
✅ Global risk assets: Increasing divergence in tech stocks quietly warms market risk aversion, overall bearish for the highly volatile crypto market.
In summary: Retail investors chase gains hoping for a bull market; institutions short to prevent a crash.
All current tech rebounds are speculative battles, not trend rallies. Heavy positions will be harvested!
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
#AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元
#韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 INJ has dropped to this point, and I have actually started to seriously look at it again.
Recently, I went back to review INJ.
To be honest, not many people are discussing this coin anymore.
When the market was good before, INJ was called a “god coin” by many; whenever it rose, there were all kinds of logic: DeFi, derivatives, RWA, institutional finance, deflation.
Now that the hype has cooled down, discussions have decreased.
But I actually think this is the best time to study it, more so than when everyone is shouting about it.
What interests me most about INJ has never been how fast Injective’s technology is, but its token model.
INJ has now entered a full circulation phase.
This is very important to me.
Because when I look at altcoins now, I’m increasingly wary of one thing: continuous unlocking over the next few years.
The project might be good, the ecosystem might grow, but as long as early investors, the team, and various shares keep releasing tokens, there will always be someone taking chips in the secondary market.
INJ has at least basically completed this pressure.
Looking further, there is its buyback and burn.
Injective has upgraded its past Burn Auction to a Community BuyBack, where ecosystem participants can use part of their income to buy back INJ, and the bought-back INJ is permanently destroyed.
Official data shows that over 7 million INJ have been burned so far.
I personally like this model.
But note, I like the “model,” not just because it has the word burn that I’m automatically bullish on INJ.
What really determines whether this has value is whether the Injective ecosystem can continuously generate income.
If the ecosystem has no real trading volume, no fees, no growing user base, then the so-called buyback and burn is just moving tokens from one hand to another.
So now that INJ’s price has dropped, I won’t first ask:
“Can it return to its previous high?”
I ask three other questions first.
Can Injective’s real trading volume grow again?
Can RWA, derivatives, and on-chain finance generate sustainable income?
Can this income ultimately be reflected back to INJ through buyback and burn?
If the answers to all three are yes, then at this low-attention stage, I actually think it’s worth continuing to follow INJ.
But if the ecosystem income never picks up, then no matter how beautiful the words full circulation, deflation, and buyback sound, they can’t solve the problem of insufficient demand.
This is also my biggest change in how I look at altcoins now.
I used to like to find “the next narrative.”
Now I prefer to find a closed loop:
Someone uses it → generates income → income flows back → token supply decreases → holders truly benefit.
I’m willing to spend time on projects that can run this loop.
If they can’t, no matter how sexy the story, I will slowly give up.
So INJ is still on my watchlist, and it’s not low on that list.
Not because I think it will definitely rise.
Much less because “it’s dropped so much it must be the bottom.”
But because it at least gives me a logic that can be continuously verified.
Full circulation solves supply pressure.
Ecosystem growth solves demand.
Buyback and burn solve value feedback.
What’s missing now is data to prove these three things can really connect.
If one day this closed loop works, the market will naturally reprice it.
If it doesn’t, I won’t keep making excuses for it just because I once liked it.
Coins can be studied long-term.
But don’t believe in them long-term.
Study trends, seek certainty.
Reject emotion, respect logic.
— Zero Chain Leader
⚠️ The above only represents personal research and opinions and does not constitute any investment advice. INJ is a highly volatile crypto asset; full circulation and buyback burn mechanisms do not guarantee price increases. Please make independent judgments and manage your positions and risks accordingly.
#INJ #Injective #Crypto #DeFi #RWA #OnChainFinance #Altcoin #ZeroChainLeader
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ What is the current state of BTC liquidity?
Overall, it is in a significant contraction phase, with multiple indicators hitting historical lows:
· Order book depth halved: Bitcoin's 2% order book depth dropped from about $70 million in early May to $35–40 million by the end of June
· Spot trading volume plummeted: daily volume shrank from about $200 billion at the 2025 peak to around $50 billion currently, only 25% of the peak; January 2026 spot volume fell to the lowest since November 2023; further dropped to $2.2 billion in August
· Extremely sluggish trading volume: recent volume only 95.43, a fraction of the 5-day average (4548)
· Volatility severely compressed: BTC daily Bollinger Band width is the narrowest since January, with price oscillating narrowly between $61,000 and $67,000
Five major reasons for liquidity contraction
1. Large-scale stablecoin outflows
Since 2026, total stablecoin supply shrank from $159 billion to $153.4 billion, a net decrease of $5.6 billion. Binance had a cumulative net outflow of nearly $7 billion in stablecoins in 2026; in July alone, Binance and Bybit outflowed over $2.3 billion. USDT market cap decreased by about $4 billion in 60 days, approaching historically low levels.
2. Weakened institutional inflows
Bitcoin ETFs continue net outflows, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) buying support has faded, and the market's 30-day rolling capital flow remains in net outflow.
3. Macro liquidity tightening
The Federal Reserve unexpectedly turned hawkish, removing market expectations of easing; U.S. Treasury settlement operations are expected to withdraw about $150 billion liquidity from the financial system.
4. Leverage clearing but depth not recovered
In Q2, Bitcoin and Ethereum long liquidations totaled $8.35 billion, Bitcoin open interest dropped 32%. Although leverage decreased, market depth has not recovered accordingly.
5. Seasonal trading lull
Typical summer trading activity declines, combined with a macro data vacuum, global funds have entered a defensive wait-and-see mode. $BTC $ETH $OKB #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Wow, SanDisk $SNDK is still pushing upwards.
To put it simply, the story from Investor Day is still fermenting, institutions believe that long-term contracts can smooth out the cycle, shorts are forced to keep covering, and analysts raising target prices are directly pushing the stock price higher.
But I always feel it's a bit overhyped; the consumer side is still weak, relying entirely on the cloud providers' story. Now, the good expectations for several years into the future are all priced in. If reality can't keep up with the fantasy someday, the drop will probably be ruthless. #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ #SPCX Shareholding Structure Revealed, Harvard's 13F Heavy Position The latest disclosed 13F filing unveils part of SpaceX's institutional holdings. Harvard Management Company holds about $2.21 billion in market value, instantly becoming its largest publicly disclosed U.S. stock holding, with a position accounting for over half, far exceeding the second place, TSMC, at $350 million. It should be noted that this position was not recently bought on the secondary market but is an early private placement from over a decade ago. With the IPO completed and shares circulating, the paper gains are substantial.
This holding sends two signals. First, major long-term funds are optimistic about the dual main themes of aerospace + AI. Institutions no longer simply regard SpaceX as a rocket company but benchmark it as the next generation of new infrastructure, optimistic about the long-term growth potential of Starlink and AI computing power businesses. Second, university endowment funds are appearing in clusters, with several prestigious schools like the University of California also holding large positions, as long-term funds collectively enter to boost market sentiment.
However, the positive news should not be overinterpreted. Harvard's position is an old one with deep unrealized gains, with no short-term chasing logic, and there is always the possibility of reduction and realization later. The biggest current risk comes from high valuation; after a short squeeze rebound, expectations are fully priced in. If satellite internet and aerospace projects fall short of expectations, a valuation correction could easily follow.
Overall, the news is sentimentally positive but unlikely to independently drive a new round of unilateral large gains. Going forward, focus on tracking more major institutional buying and selling movements. $BTC $ETH $SPCX This time, with SpaceX's first round of lock-up expiration landing, instead of the anticipated sell-off, the stock price actually surged all the way to $140, climbing back above the IPO issue price of $135, rebounding significantly from the low point. $SPCX
There are two reasons behind this rise: first, early shareholders did not rush to dump shares after the lock-up expiration, so the expected stampede did not happen; second, short sellers crowded to close their positions and cover, creating a short squeeze effect, combined with the narrative boost from space AI computing power, all these factors together pushed the price up. $SNDK
But we veterans need to be clear that this is a recovery rebound after risk realization, not a complete elimination of risk. Starlink is profitable, no doubt, but the rocket and AI businesses are burning cash heavily, and there are several more lock-up windows ahead, so the market's ability to absorb shares will still be tested. Sina Finance. $BTC
Don't get overheated and rush in just because the stock price is rising; short squeeze rallies are volatile, so never mistake a short-term rebound for a long-term bull signal. Keep a close eye on earnings reports and subsequent lock-up developments, and make sure to hold your position tightly. What happened? BTC has failed to take advantage of relatively favorable US economic data. The price is still hovering around $62–63K, while inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have reversed. In the sessions of August 12–13, the Bitcoin ETF recorded about -$61.1 million and -$131.1 million, respectively, after a series of 5 days of cash inflows. It is worth noting that the ETH ETF still had a positive cash flow of about $5.9 million on August 13, indicating that institutional cash flows have not completely left crypto but are trending selectively. Why is it important? A$ETH I hold a long position in ETH at 1878. This trade is not chasing the rally but is based on repeated support around 1865–1875.
Recently, after ETH fell back from above 1900, it has been oscillating around 1870–1890, indicating buying pressure below, but the resistance at 1895–1910 has not been truly broken. Bulls have not yet received a clear confirmation signal.
✔ The advantage of going long at 1878 is that it is close to short-term support, and the conditions for invalidating the trade are relatively clear.
✔ The issue is that the market is still in a consolidation range, BTC is still capped around 63000, and ETH spot ETF fund flows have noticeably cooled compared to the previous week. So currently, it can only be considered as accumulation, not a direct confirmation that a new upward wave has started.
✔ I opened this position with 75x leverage, so I won’t stubbornly hold through major support levels like 1840. The short-term focus is around 1865; if it holds, continue to watch 1895–1910; if there is a volume breakout and a stable retest, then look at 1920–1950.
✔ If 1865 is taken as the invalidation level, the risk from 1878 to 1865 is 13 points. With a 1:3 risk-reward ratio, the target should be at least around 1917, which is close to the 1920 resistance level.
I am still biased bullish, but not unconditionally. The most important thing with high leverage is to ensure stop loss happens before liquidation; you can’t have the direction right but lose the position due to normal volatility first.Brothers, today let's talk about a story of a fall from grace — $KAITO.
Just checked OKX data, KAITO/USDT is currently around $0.3365. How bad is this price? At the end of July, it was bouncing around $1.37, dropping over 75% in just two weeks, wiping out all the gains from July.
What’s even more painful is that the coin’s all-time high was $2.925, and now it’s just a fraction of that.
📉 What happened? From $1.37 to $0.33 in just two weeks
This plunge in KAITO is the result of several factors combined.
1. The "tide went out" on hype-driven speculation
KAITO is about "attention infrastructure" — using AI to track crypto market sentiment and mindshare. In July, the InfoFi 2.0 concept exploded, pushing KAITO from around $0.40 all the way up to $1.37.
But when the hype faded, the money ran faster than anyone else. Daily trading volume shrank from $84 million to $25 million, and total value locked (TVL) dropped from $21.9 million to about $8 million. Gains without real demand support always have to be paid back.
2. Whales are aggressively selling off
CoinGlass data shows the gap between KAITO whales and retail holders remains high, indicating big players are actively reducing positions, believing the current price is still too high.
3. A "bomb" is set to explode on August 20
On August 20, 32.6 million KAITO tokens will unlock, accounting for 3.26% of total supply. The market is already pricing in this selling pressure — running before the unlock is a survival rule in crypto.
4. Derivatives market: longs getting liquidated
The funding rate for perpetual contracts has been negative for several days, showing that everyone is shorting. Long liquidations far exceed shorts, and long leverage has been repeatedly punished by the market.
📊 Technicals: Is $0.33 the bottom or halfway down?
From the chart data, KAITO has already broken below the July launch level of $0.40.
· Current price: $0.3365, at the low range since August
· Support below: $0.266 — if $0.40 is decisively lost, analysts see this as the next target and the lowest point for 2026
· Resistance above: $0.40-$0.45 (previous support turned resistance), $0.80-$0.90 (moving average pressure zone)
💰 My view: Bottom now or wait?
KAITO’s fundamentals haven’t collapsed — the project is still progressing normally, and at the end of July, they launched the Katalyst creator rewards layer, allowing the team to pay based on actual results. But "the project isn’t dead" doesn’t mean "the price won’t keep falling."
The biggest short-term uncertainty is the August 20 unlock. If the market can’t absorb the 32.6 million tokens flooding out, the price may drop further.
My strategy:
· For bottom hunters: wait until after the August 20 unlock. If $0.30 holds, try a small position; if it breaks through, wait around $0.266 to reconsider.
· For holders: if your cost is above $0.40, cutting losses or holding tight both feel uncomfortable — but the selling pressure before unlock is real, so consider trimming positions if it rebounds to $0.38-$0.40.
· The safest: wait for the unlock to settle, panic selling to clear, and right-side signals. Catching a falling knife now has low odds.
KAITO fell from $1.37 to $0.33, and several waves of bottom hunters have already been buried. No matter how good the story, it can’t withstand the double whammy of token unlocks plus whale sell-offs.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 S&P earnings are so strong, yet Wall Street doesn't dare set targets too wildly high
This is very worth pondering
In Q2, US stock earnings exceeded expectations, with many companies outperforming under FactSet's criteria. JPMorgan, Citi, and Yardeni all raised their S&P targets and EPS assumptions. The problem is, the index is already at a high level; raising target prices further implies assuming AI spending will deliver, consumption won't collapse, inflation won't rebound, and oil prices won't cause trouble
When I look at these reports now, what I focus on most isn't the target levels
But whether they acknowledge a "lower margin for error"
High markets are prone to an illusion: because companies are doing well, stock prices can keep rising. But once prices get high enough, good news is just a ticket to enter, surprises are the fuel
It's not that no one is bullish on the S&P now
It's that even the bulls know that every step higher requires delivering results
#标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ 很多人看到 EIP-8363，第一反应都是：减少发行，ETH利好。 我一开始也是这么想的。 但把这份草案多看几遍，会发现它根本不只是一次“减发行”，而是在重新分配以太坊生态里最核心的一块蛋糕：质押收益。 现在的机制很简单：质押的人越多，单个验证者的收益率会下降，但全网仍持续发放共识奖励。理论上，就算几乎所有 ETH 都拿去质押，网络依旧会持续给质押者发钱。 问题也在这里。 如果质押越来越容易——交易所一点、LST一点、ETF再一点——大量 ETH 会自然流向少数托管方、质押服务商和大型机构。普通持币者不质押，就持续承受新增发行带来的稀释；而掌握流量入口的人，躺着吃收益。 EIP-8363 想处理的，就是这个问题。 它不是直接砍掉质押奖励，而是让质押规模越高，共识层新增发行被抵消得越多。按草案设计，当全网质押接近约 6025 万枚 ETH、约占总供应量一半时，共识层的新增发行会被完全抵消。整个过程会分约18个月逐步过渡，不是明天突然砍半。 注意，这里被压缩的是**共识层发行奖励**。优先费和 MEV 不是同一回事。 所以对不同人，结果完全不同。 不质押的持币者会说：终于不用看着自己手里的The market's biggest fear about weakening consumption is not that people stop spending,
but that people stop spending while inflation hasn't fully eased yet.
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined in July, and consumer confidence is also weighed down by high oil prices and price pressures. Normally, cooling consumption should help ease pressure on the Fed, but the problem now is that energy, services, and wages won't immediately comply just because of one retail data point.
I think the trading here is especially conflicted.
Bad data makes people want to bet on a policy shift, but before inflation drops to a comfortably low level, the Fed can't ease too quickly. So the market is caught in the middle: on one hand, hoping cooling will lead to easing, on the other hand, worrying that cooling will first hurt corporate income.
This is not a classic bullish scenario.
It's more like a car running low on fuel, but the brakes haven't been fixed yet.
#消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 Assets like SpaceX are starting to appear in 13F filings. The most interesting part isn't who bought how much, but that private unicorns are being "dissected" by the public market.
When long-term funds like Harvard show up in the conversation, many instinctively see it as an endorsement. But 13F has a very annoying detail: it is inherently delayed, and when disclosed, the market sees a snapshot from the end of a past quarter, not the real position today.
I prefer to treat it as a signal.
After SpaceX goes public, stories that could only circulate in private equity, funds, or secondary shares before will start to become assets that ordinary investors can also compare. Starlink, launches, AI computing power, military contracts—all compressed into one stock ticker for trading.
This will bring liquidity but also misinterpretation.
The more legendary the company, the more cautious everyone should be about mistaking "position disclosure" for a "future guarantee".
#SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 This is not about gambling to get rich quickly, but about waiting for a "validation." After experiencing a 98% crash, the obsession with "breaking even" has surpassed the fantasy of "getting rich." But the harsh reality is that the project's fundamentals have not improved, and the "proof" you are waiting for may never come.
Why do you have the obsession to "wait a little longer"?
Your persistence stems from the typical "disposition effect" psychology: when facing huge losses, the brain instinctively refuses to admit failure, equating "selling" with "admitting a mistake." What you fear is not the loss itself, but the regret of "why didn’t I wait longer" when you see it rise someday in the future.
The harsh reality: why the "proof" is hard to come by
Rational analysis shows that the probability of this "proof" happening is extremely low because the project is facing a triple deadlock:
- The narrative is dead, and the sector is overcrowded: CoreDAO’s core story is "connecting Bitcoin to DeFi" (BTCFi). But now this sector is filled with stronger competitors (such as Babylon, Sovereign Rollups). CoreDAO has lost its first-mover advantage and lacks a unique technological moat.
- Price collapse, confidence shattered: From a historical high of $6.14, it has plummeted to around $0.02, a drop of over 98%. This extreme wealth destruction effect deters any new funds from entering, creating a vicious cycle of "no buyers means no price increase, no price increase means no buyers."
- Ecological hollowing out: Although the project team launched applications like SatPay, there is a lack of real user growth and revenue. Instead, due to the project’s popularity, many scammers have used its name to "run away" and "phish," further worsening the survival environment.
A suggestion for those "holding on a bit longer"
If you decide to continue holding, please do not treat it as an "investment" but as a "souvenir of sunk costs."
1. Stop averaging down: Don’t try to "dilute your cost" by adding more; this is throwing more money into a possibly bottomless pit.
2. Set a bottom line: Give yourself a clear psychological price or time point (for example, hold for 3 more months). If by then the price still shows no improvement, or worse fundamental news appears (such as the project team stopping updates), mechanically execute a sell to cut off this psychological burden.
3. Shift your focus: Put your energy into new, promising projects or real life. When you no longer watch the K-line every day, the pain of "waiting" will ease a lot.
You are not waiting to get rich quickly; you are waiting for a release. But true release often does not come from a price rebound, but from the moment you actively choose to let go.The era of vertical expansion on $SNDK is officially behind us. Heavy with a 99%+ decline off top valuations, continuous token unlocks continue to overwhelm secondary market bids before momentum can build.
In stark contrast to $BICO,$BEAT, $ALLO,$KAITO, and $APR—which all absorbed fresh liquidity to execute solid turnaround runs—$SNDK fails to construct a support floor or draw in organic buyers. Without clear accumulation footprints, betting on a turnaround is pure speculation.
$SNDK
#CryptoRevenueVsBTC #Harvard has half of its US stock portfolio bet on SPCX, while smart money quietly shorts
On August 14, Harvard filed its Q2 13F with the SEC, and the word "SpaceX" pushed the rocket stock price back to 140; 24 hours later, an unexpected contrast emerged on the market—Harvard has half of its US stock portfolio bet on SPCX, while OKX smart money is quietly increasing shorts.
This quarter, Harvard Management Company holds 12,935,100 Class A shares of SpaceX, valued at about $2.21 billion (based on the 6/30 closing price of $170.86). This single holding accounts for 51.84% of its approximately $4.26 billion US stock 13F portfolio—not a test, but a direct allocation of the largest portion of its US stock account to the rocket company. Note that 13F only covers publicly traded US securities and excludes private overseas holdings; the "52% bet on SPCX" only applies within the context of its US public holdings, so do not misinterpret it as "the entire school's net worth is on the rocket."
As of June 30, about 1,697 institutions held SpaceX in their 13F filings. The top tier includes Alphabet with 551 million shares / $94.18 billion (about 100 times the value of the initial investment ten years ago); followed by Valor with 503 million / $86 billion, Fidelity with 303 million / $51.66 billion, Saudi PIF with 154.1 million Class A shares (valued at about $26.3 billion on 6/30), Nvidia with 122.8 million shares / $20.98 billion—this Nvidia stake is a byproduct of the $10 billion investment in xAI Series E in January and the full stock merger of xAI into SpaceX in February, representing Musk's overall AI growth rights. This list places top-tier capital like Alphabet, Saudi sovereign wealth, Nvidia, and Harvard in front of all investors.
Many attribute the August decline to the lock-up expiration, but the situation is more complex. The Q2 earnings report on August 4–5 triggered the initial move: capex doubled year-over-year, surpassing revenue, causing a 14% single-day drop, closing at a historic low of $108.27 on August 5. Then came the first lock-up release on August 6—911.5 million shares, worth about $100 billion (7–8% of the float), unlocked that day. Instead of falling, the stock rose 6.1% to close at $114.92—AP/CNN/Bloomberg all reported "no panic selling." The decline was driven by earnings, not lock-up selling; the first release became a "bad news priced in—short covering—rebound starting point" turning point.
Price: August 17 09:55 SPCX perpetual at $141.68, 24h +1.58%; 30-day 125.59 → August 6 low 105.39 → August 13 high 149.47 → back to 140—"V + second retest." OKX single SWAP oiUsd about $65.6 million; 24h funding rate −0.0041%, nearly zero and slightly short, bulls just lifted from negative territory on August 12–13.
Duan Yongping: On July 24, sold 1,000 SPCX put options (strike 115, expiring 12/18) at $23.26 each, collecting $2.326 million in premiums; on August 5, when the stock was $108.68, he added 100,000 shares of the underlying stock—net +3.13 million, weighted premiums about +$5.458 million, a "short volatility + value bottom" strategy.
Smart money is short at this point: among 100 qualified traders on the signal page, only 6 have positions—3 long, 4 short, weighted longs 44.6% / shorts 55.4%, net nominal amount −$91,500 net short. Average entry price for longs is 145.45 (about $3.8 above current price, unrealized loss), shorts at 136.66 (in the green); win rate 67% for longs, 78% for shorts. Total positions only $840,000, but the 4:3 oligarchic direction is clear—Harvard is adding longs, smart money is shorting.
Institutional holdings disclosure provides an "institutional valuation anchor" narrative. On August 12, Morgan Stanley interpreted Q2 lock-up release as a "buying opportunity," target price 300 / bull market 600—pricing SPCX as "AI infrastructure" rather than a "rocket company." Risks are equally weighted: after 1,697 holdings are transparent, the second and third rounds of lock-up releases—Saudi sovereign's 154.1 million shares are potential supply at every point; Q3 capex still below revenue line means downside risk not fully realized; on X, HaxKai on August 13 called the 140→131 short position profitable, explicitly stating "two-way volatility suits market making, not faith investing."
$SPCX $NVDA # #SPCX #SpaceX #SPCXShareholdingStructureRevealed_Harvard13FHeavyPosition The attack surface of hardware wallets is not limited to the device itself. On August 16, SafePal disclosed that its order tracking plugin had an authorization flaw, potentially exposing the names, emails, shipping addresses, phone numbers, and purchase details of approximately 39,798 customers to unauthorized access. The incident did not involve mnemonic phrases, private keys, wallet passwords, or fund access, but order data can turn "someone owning a hardware wallet" into a profile usable for targeted phishing: attackers know how to contact them, where shipments might be sent, and can disguise themselves as after-sales service, replacements, or firmware update reminders. Trezor's logistics service provider incident disclosed the same week also involved customer identity and shipping information. The conclusion is not "offline private keys are enough": device security, order systems, logistics, and customer communication together form the security boundary. Do not submit mnemonic phrases, private keys, or passwords in unsolicited emails, texts, calls, or letters without independent verification; if you have entered mnemonic phrases or private keys due to suspicious contact, consider that wallet compromised and migrate remaining assets. Sources: SafePal security announcement, CoinDesk, BleepingComputer. #AI #Web3 #MPC #SelfCustody #PhishingBrothers, let's talk about something different today——$ZHIPU, China's first AI stock.
Just checked OKX data, ZHIPU perpetual contract is quoted around $152.62. This is not an air coin in the crypto circle; it's the perpetual contract of the Hong Kong stock equity of Tsinghua-affiliated AI unicorn Zhipu, with the underlying asset being the Hong Kong stock 02513.HK. Since its listing in January, it has risen 20-25 times from the issue price of HKD 116, with a market cap in the range of $120-150 billion.
🔥 What happened? GLM-5.3 released, but the stock price "good news fully priced in"
On August 14, Zhipu officially released the new flagship model GLM-5.3.
Some hardcore data:
· Programming ability improved by 50% compared to GLM-5.2, ranked first in open source on public benchmarks like TerminalBench
· Achieved 84.5% in CyberGym vulnerability detection test, slightly higher than OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol's 83.6%
· Model weights will be open-sourced two weeks later, following an open-source approach
· Integrated into JD Cloud MaaS platform
But the stock price fell in the afternoon of the same day, currently around HKD 1288, down about 3.5%.
Typical "good news fully priced in" — the model is strong, but market expectations were too high, so the news became an excuse for profit-taking.
📊 Current market situation: highly volatile AI stock, both bulls and bears are being educated
Key data:
· Current OKX quote: $152.62, with drastic 24-hour fluctuations
· Hong Kong stock spot: about HKD 1288, equivalent to about $166 USD, with some price difference
· Daiwa rating: first coverage with a "Buy" rating, target price HKD 1500, optimistic about MaaS business growth
Risk one: extremely small float
Hong Kong stock float is less than 6%, daily volatility of 25-30% is normal. On July 13, 197.8 million shares were just placed, with subsequent unlocking pressure.
Risk two: overvaluation
2025 revenue only $100 million**, net loss **$650 million, price-to-sales ratio over 1000 times — entirely priced based on the scarcity of "China's strongest open-source AI," with no fundamental support.
💰 My view
ZHIPU is the reflection of China's AGI narrative in the crypto market — "If OpenAI is worth $850 billion, why can't the Chinese version of OpenAI be worth $150 billion?"
But short-term trading is extremely brutal:
· In late July, ZHIPU rebounded 31% from the low, a batch of short sellers opened shorts in the $127-$143 range, floating losses nearly 40%
· On the day GLM-5.3 was released, the stock price fell, and those chasing longs got trapped
· Both bulls and bears suffer, whoever moves first dies first
My strategy:
· For longs: wait for a pullback to the $140-$145 range to confirm stabilization, try light positions, stop loss at $135
· For shorts: try if the $160-$165 rebound is weak, stop loss at $170
· The safest: volatility is too high, keep position under 3% of total funds, or just watch the show
ZHIPU's fundamentals are "China's hope for AI," but the trading side is a "retail investor meat grinder." July placement, August unlocking, model release, Hong Kong stock linkage — too many variables, direction is hard to guess.
💰 Today's P&L: I didn't touch ZHIPU, this volatility is not for ordinary people to withstand. Let's chat in the comments, do you believe in China's long-term AI story? Would you dare to get on board at this level? 👇
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 如果现货榜前排全是小市值在冲，那衍生品市场其实已经替我们投票了。 你看到了吗？ OKX 现货涨幅榜今天像被按了加速键，BICO 直接拉了 22.39%，ONE 也有 11% 的进账，WLFI、ROBO、LEO、ONT、CVX、ILV 全在涨。一眼扫过去，像春天刚化冻的河面，碎冰噼里啪啦往下掉，确实热闹。 但热闹背后，我更在意的是另一层信号。 现货涨幅榜只是地表，真正的暗流在合约市场。今天的榜单里，除了 LEO 这种老牌稳健选手，其余几乎都是高 beta 的中小市值资产。这意味着什么？意味着目前进场的大概率是风险偏好极高的资金，它们对杠杆的渴望超过了对确定性的追求。 如果你去看这些币的资金费率，会发现一个很有意思的现象。部分涨幅靠前的币种，永续合约资金费率已经悄悄转正，甚至抬升。这说明衍生品交易者正在支付溢价来维持多头头寸，市场不是单纯在买现货，而是在用杠杆加注趋势延续。这种结构如果持续，会进一步吸引套利资金进场，形成正向循环。 但第二层影响往往被人忽略。当小币种合约持仓量快速膨胀时，往往意味着市场情绪进入亢奋区间。这时候最怕的不是下跌，而是闪崩。一旦某个币种触发大量止损，连环清算会顺着$NFLX has just pulled up from a low point with a certain slope, and Ackman's re-entry to build a position has refocused the market's attention on streaming assets.
The market closed at 78.16 on August 14, rebounding 20% from the 52-week low of 65.
The core driver of this rebound lies in the capital's revaluation of the 325 million subscription base, with institutions betting that economies of scale can still maintain the moat.
The external risk appetite recovery combined with large capital replenishing positions has pushed short-term valuations out of the previously extremely pessimistic oversold range.
If subsequent capital continues to flow in and subscription retention does not decline, prices stabilize around the short-term rebound center, and the valuation recovery rally will spread to a broader market.
Once macro inflation expectations rise again suppressing growth stock preference, or AI production tools substantially erode distribution barriers, this rebound momentum will quickly fade.
The essence of this rally is position replenishment triggered by events, rather than a thoroughly resolved long-term content pricing logic.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether the trading volume of the tokenized US stock market after the rebound can withstand the selling pressure from profit-taking.
#消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖#Bitcoin bear market countdown, maybe only about 40 days left in the window.
If the past cycle scripts continue to apply,
BTC's ultimate bottoming in this bear market will most likely fall in the fourth quarter.
Looking back at Bitcoin's more than ten years of bull and bear cycles, there is a very confusing time pattern:
2015‑2017 bull market: 1062 days
2017‑2018 bear market: 362 days
2018‑2021 bull market: 1068 days
2021‑2022 bear market: 361 days
2022‑2025 bull market: 1061 days
Cycle lengths almost replicate history.
If the historical script continues to be copied:
2025‑2026 bear market: 360 days
Then this bear market is already in its final stage.
According to cycle timing projections,
there may be only about 40 days left until the market's potential cycle bottom.
Looking again at the signals from the long-term rainbow valuation chart:
2015 cycle bottom ✅
2018 cycle bottom ✅
2022 cycle bottom ✅
Will 2026 repeat again?
Historically, every BTC cycle completes its bottoming in the long-term undervaluation range before officially starting the next big bull market.
Right now, most people in the market are still repeatedly worrying:
"Will there be further big drops? Where exactly is the bottom?"
But the real question to consider has changed:
If these next few dozen days are the bottom window of this cycle, are your bullets ready?
The most damaging thing about a bear market is never the decline itself.
It's having no cash in hand during the decline;
It's panic selling at the bottom;
It's missing out on the bull market when your position is gone.
Cycles won't replicate mechanically 100%, institutional ETFs and macro interest rate cuts will disrupt the timing, but the lessons from history are worth noting.
Opportunities always belong to those who hold chips and patiently wait for the bottom.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#Bitcoin mining company Riot wins Anthropic's large computing power order #Gold remains high, South Korea's central bank returns to the market
#S&P earnings exceed expectations, why is Wall Street still cautious? #Crypto valuation logic is splitting, are two types of coins completely diverging?
I am Lao K, and the valuation benchmarks in the crypto market are undergoing a split.
Recently, multiple institutional research reports have proposed a view: the market is abandoning pure story-driven speculation and gradually shifting to focus on real yields and on-chain revenue capabilities. This valuation system is especially suitable for ETH, storage tokens, and the DeFi sector.
Ethereum relies on Gas fees and staking yields to form stable on-chain cash flow; storage sector tokens generate continuous protocol revenue from real storage services; DeFi leaders also have a steady stream of transaction fee income. These projects can be evaluated using traditional market cash flow and revenue models to measure valuation.
But the valuation logic for $BTC is a completely different system.
Bitcoin itself does not generate protocol revenue, has no dividends, no fee returns to holders, and no measurable cash flow. Its value foundation comes from total supply scarcity, spot ETF capital flows, the global macro interest rate environment, and the consensus narrative of digital store of value. Institutional reports also admit that for BTC, an asset without cash flow, cash flow valuation models are not applicable; pricing still relies on existing consensus and capital flow.
The core factor truly influencing BTC’s short-term price is the inflow and outflow of spot ETF funds. The previous wave of continuous ETF net inflows directly pushed BTC to rebound from around 61,000 to above 64,000, which is the most straightforward real-world reflection.
Going forward, the market will show a clear differentiation:
ETH, DeFi, and storage sectors will increasingly resemble traditional enterprises, focusing on revenue, profit, and real on-chain cash flow. Tokens with poor performance will be mercilessly abandoned by capital.
Meanwhile, BTC will continue to play the role of digital gold, with pricing anchored on scarcity, institutional allocation positions, U.S. debt, and interest rate cut cycles.
There is no replacement between the two; they are just on two completely different valuation tracks.
Different sectors, different pricing logic, but they will coexist.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ #Cloudflare推AI钱包，争夺机器支付入口
#消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 📊 宏观环境正在悄然转变，加密市场似乎站在一个新的节点上。近期公布的CPI数据符合市场预期，这一结果并没有引发过度的连锁反应，反而让紧绷已久的情绪获得了缓释空间。通胀不再失控，意味着激进加息的尾部风险正在被市场逐步消化，资金重新开始打量风险资产的性价比。对于加密市场而言，这种宏观层面的“温和确认”比一次惊艳的下行更有意义——因为它给出了不确定性的边界。 与此同时，来自华盛顿的信号同样值得玩味。SEC与CFTC先后释放出涉及加密资产监管框架的新动作，尽管细节尚未完全落地，但方向上明显比以往更具建设性。这种变化让市场对“监管围剿”的刻板叙事产生了动摇，合规路径的轮廓开始若隐若现。对于机构而言，真正的阻碍从来不是价格波动，而是合规判断上的模糊地带。当这一层迷雾开始散去，资本进入的意愿就会显著增强。 更为关键的是，传统金融市场的动作正在变得更为具体。据市场信息显示，TradFi中越来越多机构客户正在增加对BTC、ETH与SOL的敞口。这并非短期投机行为能够解释的，更像是一种针对周期下一阶段的布局。头部资产再度成为资金流动性的汇聚点，而大资金的进入往往先于价格叙事形成，随后才引发市场关注度抬升🚀 $CORE/USDT Price Prediction Post
Current Price: $CORE 0.02036 (+0.84%)
24h High / Low: $CORE 0.02078 / $0.01929
Market Overview
CORE is showing a steady recovery trend on the 15-minute chart, climbing gradually after hitting a local floor near $0.01987. The price is currently holding above all key short-term moving averages—MA5 ($0.02031), MA10 ($0.02024), and MA20 ($0.02017)—showing consistent buying support and a push toward testing higher levels.
Key Levels to Watch
* Resistance: $0.02040 & $0.02078
* Support: $0.02017 & $0.01987
Price Targets & Scenarios
* Bullish Scenario (Breakout):
If buyers push and hold above the $0.02040 level, expect momentum to carry CORE toward $0.02060, with a strong chance to retest the 24-hour high at $0.02078.
* Bearish Scenario (Retracement):
If the price fails to break past $0.02040, a small pullback toward the moving average support zone around $0.02017 is likely before the next attempt upward.
Are you expecting $CORE to clear $0.02040 for a rally, or will it dip back down to retest support first?$CORE 首先，资金筹码不一样。BTC以长线持仓为主，拉动上涨需要大笔增量资金；ETH短线、合约资金更活跃，反弹中空头止损容易放大行情，同等资金下弹性更强。 其次，叙事催化分化。BTC依赖宏观消息，当下缺少新利好驱动；ETH生态热点不断，Hyperliquid等赛道持续吸引短线资金流入。 再者，技术动能有差距。BTC承压于63800附近均线，日线上涨动能衰减，上方套牢盘较重；ETH完成低点支撑测试，短线反弹条件相对更好。 ⚠️高弹性伴随高波动，一旦大盘走弱，ETH回撤也会更大，强弱格局随时会反转$BTC $ETH $OKB #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制ETH·SOL high-leverage positions, there is still no place to hide. In a full 100x leverage position, the real risk is not the direction, but the moment you can't endure even if the direction is right, isn't it? The original text is a practical observation of a trader holding ETH and SOL spot and derivative positions. The key facts are as follows: - The held assets are ETH and SOL, two long positions. - Both positions are currently in profit based on unrealized P&L. - The entry method is a full 100x leverage aiming for a short-term rebound. - The trader has past experience trading so-called altcoins like APR, ROBO, BEAT, and this position is set with a strategy contrasting those. - The author trusts the possibility of recovery after a major coin crash and the ecosystem foundation but simultaneously warns of the high-leverage liquidation risk. The real market signal in this text is not optimism but the fact that high-leverage long positions are already alive. The period when funding rates remain positive in the ETH and SOL futures markets is an environment where short squeezes can occur.#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
Last night I watched the market until 3 a.m., glanced at the candlesticks and then at my account, almost laughing at myself.
First, let's talk about what kind of mess this market is right now. BTC broke 63,000 this morning, but that’s about it, with a daily increase of just 0.19%—a gain so small last year I wouldn’t even bother opening the app to check. OKX data shows BTC even dipped below 63,000 around midnight, hitting a low near 62,995. The whole weekend it just oscillated in the narrowest range between 62,500 and 63,000, with volatility shrinking to the lowest level in months. The 10x Research team said trading volume dropped to a fraction of what it was during last October’s flash crash peak. I checked my own orders; the order book depth is as thin as paper, and a moderately sized order can move the price by dozens of dollars.
Now about the ETF situation, which is the real headache. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about 390 million, with outflows on four of the five trading days. Monday saw 144 million out, Thursday 131 million, Friday 57.63 million—only Tuesday had a symbolic inflow of 4.89 million. Keep in mind the previous week had an inflow of 850 million, so this reversal is pretty sharp.
But here’s the interesting part—although funds are flowing out, BTC ETF trading volume last week hit the second lowest since October 2024. That’s contradictory: significant outflows but thin trading volume. What does that mean? It means there aren’t that many sellers, but even fewer buyers, so the whole market feels frozen.
On-chain data is also interesting. Exchange net inflows dropped from +3507 BTC on August 14 to +683 BTC on the 15th, a decline of about 81%—fewer people are depositing BTC to exchanges, so selling pressure is easing. But the problem is exchange reserves have broken above the 200-day moving average, breaking a downtrend that lasted over two years. More BTC sitting on exchanges ready to sell is not a good sign. Funding rates also dropped from 0.0228 to 0.00465, down nearly 80%—longs are paying much less premium, but open interest barely moved. Leverage costs dropped but volume didn’t, meaning traders are still holding on, neither liquidating nor closing positions, just waiting for direction.
So can ETF buying pick up? Honestly, I think it’s unlikely in the short term.
First, ETF funds are playing differently now. Early August saw 1.1 billion flow in, BTC touched 65,000 then got pushed back down. Now ETF money seems more like bottom-fishing rather than pushing prices up—lots of money comes in but prices don’t rise, meaning selling pressure is still there, with some using ETF buying to offload.
Second, the previously most reliable buyer strategy has been a seller for four consecutive weeks. This used to be a faith-driven buyer who only bought, now they’re reducing holdings—how can market confidence be strong?
Third, stablecoins continue to flow out of the market. If off-exchange funds aren’t coming in, what buying rebound can we expect?
That said, this kind of ultra-low volume sideways market isn’t unprecedented. The market fear index dropped to 31, retail traders are talking about US stocks and gold, and BTC is barely mentioned. Times like these might actually be when long-term players should pay attention—of course, only if you can endure the grind of a prolonged bottom.
In the short term, whether 63,000 holds is key. Below that, watch 62,600; if broken, it could drop to 61,800. On the upside, 63,500 to 64,000 is all resistance. Talking about breakouts without volume is just nonsense.
I’m just chilling with limit orders now—buy a little on dips, sell a little on rebounds, making some pocket money. Chasing rallies and panicking sells just feed the exchange fees anyway.
Brothers, what do you think about this level? Will bulls outlast the bears or will it dip further?
$BTC