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In-depth analysis of BTC and ETH volume contraction counterattack and price rally
The recent volume contraction and price rally of BTC and ETH is not due to a large influx of new off-exchange funds; the core reason is the exhaustion of selling pressure combined with a crowded short position leading to a passive short squeeze.
From the volume perspective, the current BTC and ETH contract trading volumes have both fallen below the 7-day average, indicating low willingness among retail investors off-exchange to chase prices, with no large-scale follow-up buying. On-chain data shows continuous net outflows of BTC from exchanges recently, long-term whale cold wallets remain locked, and the circulating spot supply on exchanges is decreasing, meaning even a small amount of capital can leverage the market.
On the market side, retail short positions are heavily concentrated network-wide, and bearish sentiment is highly uniform. After a slight upward price movement, stop-losses and liquidations trigger concentrated buy orders to close short positions. Closing short positions requires active buying, and this passive buying becomes the main driving force behind the rally, pushing prices higher without the need for massive capital.
ETH shows stronger elasticity; on one hand, a large number of leveraged short positions have been cleared, and on the other hand, ETH staking remains high for the long term, limiting circulating selling pressure. Under the same capital drive, ETH’s price increase surpasses that of BTC.
Volume-contracted short squeeze rallies tend to be weak in sustainability. Once the short liquidation wave ends and there is a lack of new active buying to take over, the market can easily return to consolidation. At this stage, avoid blindly chasing prices; focus on whether subsequent volume can effectively expand, as only volume-driven rallies have the foundation for trend continuation.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 $BTC $ETH $SNDK #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注
3.56 million BTC have been dormant for over 10 years! Accounting for 17.7%, a historic high, is the scarcity seriously underestimated?
Latest data from CryptoQuant: 3.56 million BTC have not moved for over 10 years, making up 17.7% of the circulating supply. In the past 30 days, an additional 14,000 BTC have joined the "zombie supply".
Along with long-term holders (LTH) holding for over 155 days also approaching historic highs, exchange reserves have dropped to 2.56 million BTC (the lowest since 2020)—on the surface, the 21 million cap exists, but the actual tradable supply may be less than 17.5 million.
After the halving, daily new supply is only about 450 BTC, but dormant coins are being "invisibly burned," and the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model has already caught up with gold. It's not that there are no buyers pushing the price up, but once new money enters, the available supply is much shallower than you think.
Old OGs don’t sell, lost keys are unrecoverable, and ETFs quietly absorb supply—these three forces have turned BTC into a liquidity black hole.
What’s lacking now is not scarcity, but a catalyst. But if you wait for the catalyst to appear and then rush in, it will be too late. 🛢️ 原油 WTI | $82.21 | 停火博弈撞上宽松共振先上结论：原油短期结构偏多，但正卡在斐波半分位这道坎上；对BTC而言，眼下是"供给端油价回落 + 金银宽松共振"的中期利好组合，真正的尾部风险是停火破裂。五维总表趋势定性• 读数: MA5(82.47)>MA20(82.45)>MA60(81.56) 多头排列• 信号: 🟢 偏多结构定位• 读数: 现价82.21贴着斐波50%(82.57)下方，30天$93.5→$74.24→$82• 信号: 🟡 半分位分水岭动能判断• 读数: MACD零轴上(0.37)·RSI 55中性·KDJ 76.9偏高• 信号: 🟡 多头动能但KDJ高位量能验证• 读数: 盘中量未走完(待收盘确认)• 信号: ⚪️ 观望宏观共振• 读数: 金银比67.8<70·DXY弱(99.5)·油价自战争高点回落• 信号: 🟢 宽松共振关键位置阻力• 位置: $82.45-82.57• 逻辑: MA20+斐波50%密集区阻力• 位置: $85.88• 逻辑: 斐波61.8%支撑• 位置: $81.56• 逻辑: MA60支撑• 位置: $79.27•Yesterday, a 13F filing caused a stir in the crypto community.
Not because of the amount—$23 million is not a huge sum in the crypto world.
What caused the stir was: who bought it.
Duquesne, the Druckenmiller family office, submitted its Q2 2026 13F holdings report to the SEC, revealing for the first time a $23 million stake in the crypto treasury company Hyperliquid Strategies Inc (Nasdaq ticker: PURR) as of June 30.
If you don’t know who Druckenmiller is—
He is as famous as Soros. The key trader who shorted the British pound in 1992, making $1 billion overnight. A living Wall Street legend, not some "influencer fund manager," but someone written into finance textbooks.
His family office has bought crypto-related stocks for the first time.
But that’s not the most explosive part.
Who is Duquesne’s former employer? Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Before joining the Fed, Warsh worked at the Duquesne family office for over a decade. Financial disclosures in April showed Warsh received $10.2 million in consulting fees from Duquesne last year and personally holds over $100 million in investments in Duquesne-managed funds.
Got it?
The current Fed Chair spent more than half his career at a family office. That family office just invested $23 million into a crypto asset treasury company.
This is not an ordinary "institutional buy."
This is the core node of the Fed Chair’s network putting real money on the crypto sector.
Some might say: $23 million is nothing; Duquesne manages tens of billions, so what?
Wrong.
This is not about position size; it’s about the signal level.
Duquesne is not some "hedge fund gambling"—it’s the family office managing Druckenmiller’s lifetime wealth. Every allocation is a top-level, long-term wealth decision.
Moreover, this is not Duquesne’s first exposure to crypto assets. But the first time it publicly disclosed PURR holdings via 13F means it has entered the formal allocation level that must be reported to the SEC.
Not a tentative small position, but an official holding recorded in the report.
Look at the investment target—Hyperliquid Strategies Inc, a digital asset treasury company that provides exposure to HYPE tokens for investors through staking, yield optimization, and other strategies.
In plain language:
This company legally holds and manages crypto assets on behalf of traditional funds.
The top money on Wall Street wants to enter the crypto market but doesn’t want to buy coins directly—so they buy the "company that buys coins."
This is not a slogan of "institutions are coming," it’s the fact that "money is already in."
When the family office managing a legendary fund manager’s lifetime wealth includes a crypto treasury company in its 13F report;
When the Fed Chair’s longtime former employer votes for crypto assets with $23 million;
Are you still debating whether this bull market has arrived?
Some people watch candlesticks, some watch news, some watch—who is moving money where.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE Can SNDK continue to rally? I'm actually more cautious about this pullback wave.
The most dangerous point for SNDK right now is not deteriorating fundamentals, but the overly concentrated positive news and rapid price increase.
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart has already risen from around 1300 previously to above 1740, with the moving average system clearly in a bullish arrangement, but the price has entered a previous dense resistance zone. Around 1777 is the first resistance; only after breaking through will we look at 1828. If it can't break through, a short-term pullback to 1677 or even around 1628 is very likely.
The news remains mostly positive: SanDisk's latest investor day projects mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth from 2028 to 2030, emphasizing AI infrastructure, enterprise SSDs, and long-term agreements; the company also disclosed signing multi-year contracts with 8 customers, with contract values exceeding $93 billion.
More importantly, AI servers are massively consuming NAND. By Q2 2026, enterprise SSDs will account for about 48% of global NAND shipment bits, compared to only 26% in the same period last year.
So my judgment:
The mid-term logic remains bullish, but short-term is not suitable for blindly chasing highs.
If 1777 volume breakout holds → look at 1828 or even 1900;
If 1777 repeatedly resists → most likely a pullback to 1677 first;
If 1677 breaks down → 1628 is the next level to watch.
The real risk in this wave is not that SNDK lacks a story, but that the market has already priced in too many stories in advance
#SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 $SNDK Two valuation models on Wall Street determine the market ceiling for BTC and ETH
Most retail investors only focus on the candlestick charts, but institutions use two completely different valuation frameworks to price BTC and ETH.
For $BTC: Institutions treat it as digital gold, with valuation anchored to the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds and global risk aversion demand.
They don’t consider new features or ecosystem activity, only the macro environment. When interest rates fall and risk aversion rises, valuation goes up; when rates rise, valuation is suppressed. Its valuation logic is simple and clear with few variables, so during fluctuations, the bottom is easier to predict.
For $ETH: Wall Street treats it as a continuously evolving tech growth company.
Valuation depends on on-chain fee revenue, L2 ecosystem growth, RWA asset scale, and staking ETF approval progress. Any metric falling short of expectations directly lowers the valuation ceiling. It’s not a simple digital commodity; it earns "network service fees" on-chain. Once revenue growth slows, even with more tokens locked up, it will face valuation sell-offs.
This is the root cause of strength and weakness differentiation in a volatile market.
BTC’s valuation system is unaffected by ecosystem progress and only looks at macro factors; ETH’s valuation is constrained by a bunch of business metrics.
Key points to watch going forward:
BTC looks at U.S. Treasury yields and ETF fund inflows and outflows;
ETH focuses on on-chain fees and staking ETF approval progress.
Two different assets, cannot be treated with the same trading logic The total token unlock volume this week exceeds $37 million, but the market impact is determined more by the ratio relative to circulating supply and derivative positions than by the simple dollar amount. After BTC and ETH set the direction first, will altcoins fluctuate according to their individual unlock schedules? According to the original text, there are a total of 4 confirmed unlocks this week. ZRO has 25.71 million tokens unlocking on August 20, worth about $19.39 million, accounting for 4.4% of the circulating supply. KAITO also unlocks on the same day with 32.6 million tokens, approximately $11.48 million, representing 7.63% of the circulating supply. SOON unlocks 20.24 million tokens on August 23, about $3.85 million, which is 3.76% of the circulating supply, and MBG unlocks 27.15 million tokens on August 22, about $2.85 million, accounting for 6.16% of the circulating supply. The combined amount is approximately $37.57 million. The structural market significance of this unlock is not simply selling pressure but rather position expectation differences. ZRO and KAITO have large dollar amounts and high ratios relative to circulating supply, so if a supply gap occurs immediately after the unlock, AI infrastructure earnings reports are increasingly like a supply chain health check.
Who is really the bottleneck, who is just riding the hype, the earnings reports will tell.
CoreWeave's revenue doubled, order backlogs continue to grow, Lumentum delivered high growth relying on AI data center optical communication demand, and Sandisk also framed AI storage as a long-term model. They all seem like AI infrastructure, but the business quality is completely different: some rent computing power, some sell optical modules, some sell storage, and some rely on financing to deploy equipment first.
I think the market will become more selective later.
In the past, as long as the name was associated with AI infrastructure, investors were willing to buy first and ask questions later. Not anymore. Investors will ask if delivery can keep up, if power supply is sufficient, if gross margin can remain stable, and if customers will be dangerously concentrated.
AI infrastructure is not a straight bull market.
It's more like inspecting layer by layer; if any link shows weakness, the money will immediately switch teams.
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 ETH 最近这波是真有点东西。 前面 ETH/BTC 被锤得跟孙子一样，0.026附近都快给市场打成“ETH没用了”的共识了，结果这段时间突然开始往回拱。7月 ETH 涨了快20%，BTC才8%左右，这就不是单纯跟涨了，明显开始有人把钱往 ETH 身上挪。 而且最骚的是，BTC现在还是那副机构最喜欢的“数字黄金”样子，ETH这边反而开始出现另一套东西：ETF在吸钱，staking比例继续往上，稳定币、DeFi、L2这些破事最后还是绕不开ETH。 所以我现在看ETH，真没那么在乎它今天是涨3%还是跌2%。 我盯 ETH/BTC。 0.03先站稳，别他妈刚摸到就掉下来。真正有意思的是0.035，如果这个位置能磨几天然后周线站住，说明ETH这次可能真不是反弹一下就完事。 再往上干到0.04，那味道就完全不一样了。 因为ETH一旦开始持续跑赢BTC，后面的资金轮动才是最值得看的东西。 历史上每次BTC把市场风险偏好打开以后，钱都会开始嫌BTC贵，然后去找ETH，再往后才轮到那些垃圾山寨乱飞。 现在还没到那个阶段，别急着吹牛逼。 但如果ETH/BTC从0.03一路干到0.035、0.04，而BT$GPS
A short position on GPS has been opened, with the first stop loss at 0.017 and the second at 0.020.
Current position: short opened around 0.0148, position size is light, stop losses set at two levels: 0.017 and 0.020.
This coin has gone crazy today, rising from 0.0094 to a high of 0.0158 within 24 hours, an increase of nearly 40%, with a volume of 2.8 billion tokens and a turnover exceeding 40 million USDT. I admit I am shorting because I really can't stand this straight-line surge; I feel like the pumpers are about to dump.
Reasons why I am bearish (maybe just self-comfort):
1. Resistance above is trapped holders: the range 0.0118-0.0158 is full of holders stuck from before. Today it only touched 0.0158 at the highest and then dropped, clearly someone is selling to cap the price. Chasing longs here is not cost-effective.
2. Funding rate has skyrocketed: looking at the funding rate chart, it recently swings wildly around ±120%, and currently longs are paying shorts at a historically high rate. Such extreme funding rates usually signal an imminent correction; pumpers love futures contracts.
3. Long-short account ratio is 1.2: longs account for 54.6%, shorts 45.4%. Although longs are more, the active buy and sell volumes are close (25.51 million buys vs. 24.52 million sells), indicating weakening buying momentum. Also, the futures basis is negative (0.36% discount), meaning futures are cheaper than spot, so the market is not that optimistic.
4. Small-cap meme coin: total market cap is only 48 million USDT, but futures open interest is over 20 million, leverage is already very high. If BTC dips, this coin can drop 30% in half an hour.
What I fear:
· First stop loss at 0.017 (about 15% away), second at 0.020 (35%). If it really rallies to 0.017, it means a complete breakout on the daily chart, I will exit half my position. If it reaches 0.020, I will fully cut losses and admit defeat.
· Key level is 0.0158; if it breaks through this with volume, shorts must be highly cautious. Support below is at 0.012; if it breaks, it might be worth holding.
Technical analysis: the daily chart is still in a bullish trend, EMA20 and EMA60 are supporting below. I am trading against the trend on the left side, trying to catch a top, which is a risky gamble—don’t follow me.
Finally:
· This coin’s 24-hour volatility exceeds 60%, so if you have a weak heart, don’t touch it.
· My stop losses are my personal settings, not advice; do your own judgment.
· If I get liquidated, I will come back and post to cry.
Brothers, what do you think? Do you think I’m going to get rich or just pay tuition again?
---
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above content is purely my personal random analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Futures trading carries risks, go all-in cautiously, don’t blame me if you lose, and don’t share profits with me if you win. The market is dangerous; be responsible for yourself. 【Aheng On Duty Today｜August 17】
The market showed a mild rebound, but the most important point today is:
The US stock market has not yet opened, so this rebound has not been validated by ETF funds.
The market has warmed up somewhat
BTC is around $63,423, up about 0.7% in 24 hours; ETH is about $1,899, up about 1.0%; SOL is about $75.43, basically flat.
The total market capitalization of the crypto market is about $2.18 trillion, up 0.58% in 24 hours; trading volume is about $34.5 billion, expanded compared to the previous day.
However, BTC dominance has simultaneously risen to 58.45%, and the Fear & Greed Index is only 38/100, indicating some sentiment recovery, but funds still favor top assets, so a full rotation cannot be confirmed based on this.
No new ETF data today
So far, the most recent complete trading day is August 14:
BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of $56.2 million; ETH and SOL spot ETFs both had zero inflow.
Last week, BTC ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $385.2 million. Therefore, today's price increase can only be defined as a spot market rebound and cannot yet be described as "institutional funds returning."
The ETF performance after the US stock market opens tonight will be the first fund validation of this rebound.
The macro focus for this week is clear
At 21:15 on August 18, the US will release industrial production and capacity utilization data.
At 2:00 AM on August 20, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the July 28-29 meeting.
The market needs to observe not just a "hawkish" or "dovish" statement, but how the committee views inflation, economic growth, and the subsequent interest rate path.
Be cautious with the SafePal user data leak news
SafePal reported a data breach involving about 39,798 customers.
As of this writing, I have not found a synchronized statement on SafePal's official website, so treat this as "awaiting further official confirmation." Also, customer or order information leakage does not mean private keys, mnemonics, or on-chain assets have been compromised.
A more realistic risk is targeted phishing: when receiving messages about "firmware upgrades," "wallet anomalies," or "asset migration," do not operate through links in emails or texts; instead, verify directly through the official app or website.
Aheng's judgment:
Today is sentiment repair, not trend confirmation.
To validate the rebound, we need to see simultaneously:
1. BTC firmly reclaiming $64,000;
2. Trading volume continuing to hold rather than quickly falling back;
3. US BTC ETFs ending continuous net outflows;
4. Corresponding capital inflows when ETH and SOL rise.
If prices rise, BTC dominance continues to increase, but ETFs still outflow, the market structure remains a defensive rebound led by top assets.
Watch the funds first, then listen to the story; write the invalidation conditions first, then the views.
This post is for market research and information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. When AMD pushed the $4.75 billion bond across the midline like a pawn, all the masters on the board smelled blood—this is not a raise, but a pawn sacrifice to seize the line, exchanging today's debt for the initiative twenty moves ahead.
I have played black for twenty years and have seen too many players die in the illusion of "local gains." Nvidia pulling BlackRock, Blackstone, and Goldman Sachs to build a financing platform is like Wang Yi concentrating heavy troops, preparing to encircle the king's city; Intel selling equity to exchange for manufacturing lines is like sacrificing a rear-wing pawn, trading position for time. AMD choosing the debt route seems like a desperate move but is actually reinforcing the central pawn chain—AI infrastructure is the central battlefield of this game, and whoever controls these two long diagonals with their bishops dominates all exchanges after the midgame.
But players focusing on the center often overlook a fatal fact: financing ability is like a player's "available moves." Every step you pre-spend reduces flexibility in the endgame. AMD's move is brilliant because it turns debt into a "pawn chain breakthrough"—AI chip demand is the passed pawn rushing to the baseline; if it doesn't promote to a queen, that $4.75 billion becomes a sacrificed pawn to be captured. Everyone is calculating only up to the midgame, but no one counts the endgame: when interest rates tick like the opponent's clock, new debt is the weak pawn in the endgame, vulnerable to attack by the opponent's minor pieces.
More intriguingly, this game is not two-dimensional. GPU orders are just the visible rooks, knights, and cannons, while the capital's dark lines behind are the real queens. Nvidia's compute-financing platform is like setting up a move list outside the board—you think it's a chip battle, but it's actually a leverage battle. AMD thickens its pawn formation with bonds, but if AI revenue growth can't keep pace with the move rhythm, financing costs will be like the black bishop blocking your king's pawn, paralyzing the entire defense line.
I have seen countless so-called "central breakthroughs" ultimately lose to their own time pressure. True masters don't count who has more pieces but who can still make dignified waiting moves without breathing room. AMD now stakes the fate of the entire kingdom on this pawn, while Nvidia has long laid out a double threat twenty moves ahead. As for Intel's equity sale, it's like castling the king's rook before surrender, retreating to a corner waiting for a miracle.
The decisive move in this game is not in today's bond ledger but in the unknown endgame corner two or three years from now—when you move your king for the last time, you realize your wallet has long been eaten up by the opponent's "maturity." #amdlargestbonddeal 很多人还在等 BTC 减半发财。 数据已经给答案了。 减半那天到现在： BTC：大约 +7% OKB：接近 +100% 不是运气。
是这轮里，OKB 同时拿到了稀缺性 + 交易所基本面 + 公链叙事。 一、同一条起跑线，OKB 先跑出去了 把 2024 年 4 月 20 日减半价设为 1： 绿线 OKB 已经走到大约 2 倍。
灰线 BTC 还在原点附近磨。 BTC 这轮最大的问题是周期压缩：时间到了，利润没给。
OKB 反过来——同样的四年窗口，先兑现了一轮价值重估。 如果你这轮只拿 BTC，大概率是在原地踏步。
同期拿 OKB，已经把成绩单拉开了。 二、不是某一周暴涨，是持续跑赢 1 月、3 月、6 月、减半至今，OKB 全赢。 尤其近三个月：BTC 还在跌，OKB 继续涨。
说明资金没有在「逃平台币」，而是在 用 OKB 做相对强势资产。 三、从 229 回落到 104，更像给第二波上车 OKB 历史高点 $228.74（2025-10-04），现在大约 $104。 很多人看到 -55% 就怕。
换个角度看： 供给已经永久锁死 2100 万，不会再增发 高点是销毁重估打出来的，不$BTC has every reason to move and still can't decide which way.
July's inflation data came in cooler across the board — CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, PPI at 4.7% — exactly the kind of print that used to send Bitcoin higher on rate-cut hope. Instead, price is stuck in a narrow pocket: the daily trend keeps weakening while the short-term setup looks genuinely oversold, two forces canceling each other out. Thin weekend liquidity only makes it worse — whatever direction this breaks, it won't be today.
The backdrop isn't helping either. Gold is pushing toward its highest levels in roughly two months as investors lean into safety over Middle East tension, and oil has climbed alongside it on renewed concern over shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. That combination usually gets read by markets as a future inflation risk, not a reason to buy Bitcoin — geopolitical fear tends to compete with BTC for the same safe-haven dollars rather than lifting it alongside gold.
Away from the chart, two data points are worth filing for later. Anthropic's Q2 revenue crossed $11.5 billion, up more than fourteenfold year-over-year as the company preps a possible IPO this fall — a reminder that capital is still chasing AI infrastructure hard. Meanwhile SoftBank just cut its TSMC stake by roughly 71.5%, pocketing about $270 million, proof that even committed AI bulls are actively rotating rather than holding blindly. Neither moves BTC directly, but both say something about how aggressively capital is repositioning across risk assets right now.
For Bitcoin specifically, the real catalyst hasn't arrived yet. Thursday's Fed minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium later this month are what actually get to break this standoff — until then, expect more of the same tight, directionless grind.
#BTCVolumeDriesUp #SPCXOwnershipRevealed #AIInfraEarningsWatch
Not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH $XAU $CLETH just reclaimed $1,900 — but is this the start of the catch-up move or another fakeout? 👀
ETH is back around $1,903, and the short-term picture is starting to look healthier.
I went long around $1,885, took partial profit near $1,903, and moved my stop-loss to breakeven on the rest. Now I’m simply watching the key levels.
🔥 Above $1,900: bulls have room to push toward $1,925–$1,950.
⚠️ Below $1,880: the rebound structure starts looking weak again.
#DailyOrbit Looking at today's batch of hot topics together, I actually feel the market is undergoing a quite interesting change. Everyone is still talking about interest rate cuts, BTC, AI, stablecoins, but the real concern of the money has gradually shifted from "what's the next story" to "who will ultimately pay the bill for this story." First, looking at the US stock market side: Google's parent company issued $25 billion in bonds. At first glance, the headline might make it seem like the company is short on cash, but when viewed in the context of the entire AI capital expenditure cycle, the meaning is completely different. In the past two years, discussions about AI mainly focused on models, GPUs, user growth, and revenue. Now, more and more attention is being paid to bonds, data centers, electricity, chip manufacturers, depreciation, and cash flow. Among the same batch of hot topics, Tesla and SpaceX are rumored to be investing in building a $16.8 billion AI chip factory. One is raising funds, the other is building a factory. This means AI competition has gradually shifted from "whose model is smarter" to "whose balance sheet can withstand the pressure." Putting these two things together is more interesting than just looking at the daily price changes of GOOGL or TSLA alone. Currently, on the OKX hot topics page, XGOOGL shows a decline of -0.66%, TSLA is up +3.32%, and XSPCX is even up +13.76%. The market does not simply interpret AI capital expenditure as a negative. It is more like a re-selection process. Spending money is not a problem as long as the market believes this money can later become a moat. The real danger is spending more and more money while revenue, profit, and free cash flow cannot keep up. This is also why when looking at tech stocks now, I think we cannot just look at "A #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
It's not that no one is buying; marginal buying power has clearly weakened.
In the first week of August, the US stock Bitcoin ETF still had continuous net inflows, totaling about 854 million from the 3rd to the 7th, but in the second week it reversed directly, with net outflows of about 390 million from the 10th to the 14th.
The price is stuck around 63,000, with little volatility; funds are already withdrawing. What is lacking now is not volatility but incremental capital.
The large amount of ETF buying earlier has already priced in some of the upside expectations. Without new funds coming in, BTC can easily enter an awkward state where it doesn't fall deeply nor rise, which is more wearing than a crash.
Funds have not completely left the crypto market but are rotating. ETH is more resilient; the ETH spot ETF had continuous net inflows close to 256 million from the 4th to the 7th, basically flat from the 10th to the 14th, and even zero inflow on the 14th.
BTC institutional funds are starting to cool down, while ETH is looking for a second growth curve.
▶️ Can BTC ETF see continuous net inflows for 3-5 days again?
▶️ Can the price stabilize again at 64,000-65,000?
If both happen, this volume contraction is more likely a consolidation. If it continues to hover around 63,000 with ETF outflows, be cautious of longer-term volatility or even a second dip.
In the short term, BTC seems to be waiting for funds; the story is already abundant. Now it depends on whether anyone is willing to push the price up with real money.
I will focus on watching ETF fund flows rather than guessing price moves daily by looking at candlesticks.
A return of funds might be the real signal for the next wave to start.
$BTC $ETH August 17, 2026 U.S. Stock Market Midday Analysis
U.S. stocks surged pre-market, mainly driven by three core positive factors resonating together: "cooling inflation concerns, explosive earnings from AI infrastructure giants, and institutions ending a 14-quarter short-selling streak to aggressively buy."
1. Three Real Drivers Behind the Pre-Market Rally
1. Macro Boost: Cooling inflation data solidifies "rate cut expectations" again
Real Data: The latest inflation data released over the weekend and earlier continues to show signs of "cooling," while last week the U.S. completed a record 30-year Treasury auction.
Market Logic: According to Bloomberg's latest monitoring, weaker economic data has significantly eased Wall Street's worries that the Federal Reserve will "maintain high interest rates" next month. The U.S. dollar index dropped accordingly, and U.S. Treasury yields fell, directly unlocking the interest rate shackles on the U.S. stock market, especially tech stocks, prompting funds to resume risk chasing pre-market.
2. Industry Boom: AI infrastructure giants' earnings "skyrocket with explosive orders"
Real Data: The AI infrastructure and server sectors saw a wave of explosive Q2 earnings last week. Nebius (NBIS) revenue surged 454% year-over-year to $582 million, far exceeding expectations; meanwhile, CoreWeave (CRWV) saw a crazy surge in backlog orders, with Q2 revenue surpassing the $2.57 billion mark.
Market Logic: The explosive orders from these two hardcore AI infrastructure giants completely shattered market rumors that "AI is a bubble and big companies are cutting spending." This not only drove a broad pre-market rebound in chip stocks but also boosted bullish sentiment for the storage trio, including Micron (MU) and SanDisk (WDC, which surged over 7% last Friday), proving that hardware demand is still being realized in cold hard cash.
3. Whale Returns: "The stock god's successor" 13F report revealed, ending short-selling with $23.5 billion buy-in
Real Data: Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO Greg Abel submitted his second 13F report since taking office.
Market Logic: The report shows Berkshire officially spent $23.5 billion buying stocks in Q2, completely ending its previous defensive stance of "selling more and buying less" for 14 consecutive quarters. Abel has started deploying Buffett's trillion-dollar cash reserves into the market, giving Wall Street bulls a strong confidence boost, signaling that top capital is fully returning to the spot market.
2. Don't Just Look at the Upside—What Are the Objective Risks?
Although the pre-market rally is lively, as rational traders, we need to face two uncertainties that will arise after today's close and during this week:
Retail Giants' Earnings "Big Test" Approaching: This week Walmart, Target, and Alibaba (BABA) will successively release their latest earnings. Against the backdrop of the University of Michigan's preliminary August consumer confidence index decline (only 51, down from 55.2 in July), whether retail investors and consumers' real purchasing power can hold steady is Wall Street's biggest concern this week.
Hidden Geopolitical Friction in the Middle East: Last Friday, due to uncertainties around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices fluctuated again and stabilized at a relatively high level of $88.52 per barrel. High oil prices directly push up supply chain costs, and if geopolitical tensions escalate again this week, it could pressure pre-market gains to give back profits.
Independent Thinking Defensive Advice
After laying out the data, readers can make rational judgments based on their own risk tolerance. Here are two unbiased objective suggestions:
If you are a short-term player: The pre-market rally driven by macro data and the 13F report is a typical "emotional pulse." Since the Fed's July FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday, avoid blindly placing market orders to chase highs in the first 30 minutes after the open to prevent being caught in profit-taking and shakeouts after the initial surge.
If you are a long-term investor: Abel's $23.5 billion buy-in indicates mainstream institutions have rigid buy-side defense at valuation bottoms. The order visibility for AI hardware and advanced storage extending to 2028-2030 is also a public fact. Don't panic sell due to single-day volatility; executing passive accumulation gradually and in batches near core moving average support levels is much more reliable than high-frequency directional bets during volatile periods.
The market is always changing. See through the risks and rewards behind the data and keep the decision power in your own hands.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 The entire network is shorting BTC and ETH, so why are they still rising???
Many people see a large number of retail investors shorting on social platforms and mistakenly think that the overall market is dominated by bearish forces. First, it is important to distinguish: retail opinions do not equal the positions of major players. The shorts voicing opinions on social platforms are mostly small accounts, while the long positions of whale institutions are often low-key and hidden, not widely publicized online.
The core driver is the short squeeze chain reaction. In the past 24 hours, $7.45 million was liquidated across the network, with short liquidations accounting for 67%. Shorts wanting to exit must buy to close, causing a large amount of passive market buy orders from shorts, forming passive buying pressure that further pushes prices up, triggering more short liquidations and creating a positive feedback loop that drives the rally.
On the macro level, support is also provided: the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has fallen to 32%, and expectations of easing inflation improve risk asset sentiment. Long-term whales continue to withdraw coins from exchanges to cold wallets for locking, stabilizing spot bottoms and underpinning the market.
Retail investors crowding into shorts only represent short-term bearish market sentiment and cannot determine the market direction. When retail positions become overly crowded in the same direction, they are most likely to become targets for major players to harvest. Trading should not rely on online public opinion to judge trends but should be based on comprehensive analysis of real on-chain, liquidation, and capital data.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 $BTC $ETH $SNDK When $BTC's risk-reward ratio clearly starts to lead, the logic of purely chasing bigger gains by buying altcoins needs to be reexamined. If most mainstream altcoins' gains can't outperform $BTC in the long run, then what's the point of buying altcoins?
The real advantage of altcoins is originally to exchange higher risk for higher returns.
If now you bear greater volatility, higher risk of going to zero, worse liquidity, and in the end the returns are still worse than $BTC, then this risk premium doesn't hold.
This is really f***ing ridiculous!!! fuck !!Duan Yongping's portfolio adjustment in the second quarter is quite interesting.
Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft are all reducing their holdings.
Apple and Nvidia currently have a PE ratio of about 34, while Microsoft is at 27.
Conversely, Pinduoduo is at 8, Berkshire at 12, Disney at 21, and they are actually increasing their positions.
This move actually reveals quite a bit.
The companies themselves are not bad; the difference lies in the price.
Tesla is even more extreme, with a PE of 355.
At this valuation, it's hard to simply calculate based on current profits.
The market is buying into future expectations.
So for something like Tesla, if you don't have enough faith, you really can't hold on.
When it rises, you think you understand the future; if it drops 20%, you immediately start doubting everything.
Sometimes investing is just that simple.
With the same amount of money, why not buy the cheaper options? $BTC New week trend
Conclusion first: This week is still "grinding," no direction chosen. The baseline range is 60,000–68,000, price is below all moving averages, the descending channel is unbroken—this is called "neutral to bearish," not bearish, but there is no evidence that bulls have regained any ground.
Technically, the head and shoulders pattern remains, rebound volume is shrinking each time. The 62,000 level has repeatedly failed and recovered in the past two days, which is a sign of "support turning into resistance"; on the third test, programmed selling pressure plus chained liquidations of contracts could quickly push it down to 60,000 or even 58,000.
On the event front, last week’s two cards have been played: 8/7 Nonfarm payrolls -23,000, weaker than expected; CLARITY delayed directly to September, Polymarket probability down to only 15%, policy won’t save the market this week. The real watershed is Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, July meeting was 9-3 to hold steady, all 3 dissenting votes called for a rate hike, the minutes need to answer: how close are these 3 votes to flipping, and will there be a hike in September.
The three macro mountains: September rate hike probability around 40% (CPI 3.4%, retail -0.6%, nonfarm turning negative, all weakening the case for a hike, but "no rate cut" is certain); inflation remains sticky; AI stocks continue to drain incremental funds, rebounds lack volume.
August is historically a weak month (median -7%), 44 exchanges daily volume $15 billion, lowest this year—order books are paper-thin, volatility will be amplified, but direction must wait for volume to speak first. Retail investors should not trade crude oil!!!
I see that the trading volume of crude oil contracts on exchanges is very high, but in fact, most novice users are simply not suitable for trading crude oil. Don't trade it just because crude oil often appears in news reports due to the US-Iran war.
The decades-long volatility of crude oil is not suitable for making big money through trading. It doesn't experience violent surges or crashes. Compared to US stocks and crypto, the opportunities are much fewer. Don't waste your time on this.
You cannot accurately calculate its "fair value" using any financial or supply-demand model. The price is often the result of political games rather than market forces. This means your technical and fundamental analysis can instantly become worthless in front of the "leader of a certain country." You are trading an asset that can be intervened by an "invisible hand" at any time, so the odds are naturally not in our favor.
From this perspective, crude oil is more like an "insurance tool" designed for spot traders and oil-producing countries to hedge risks, rather than an "investment asset" designed for capital appreciation.
Protect your principal and don't be misled by "certain people" into playing with crude oil.Looking at the $SPCX shareholding list, my first reaction wasn’t that it’s stable, but that the chips are way too concentrated.
Harvard holds about 12.935 million shares of SpaceX, accounting for 51.8% of its 13F portfolio. Nvidia also holds nearly 123 million shares, and Alphabet, Fidelity, and BlackRock are all present.
This list is indeed impressive, but don’t rush to interpret it as institutions frantically buying up shares.
Many positions come from early investments or pre-IPO arrangements, not recent entries into the secondary market.
Their cost basis, holding periods, and retail investors are completely different. Also, the 51.8% is just Harvard’s reported public securities portfolio, not half of the entire endowment fund invested in SpaceX.
What’s most interesting now is the capital preference.
$SNDK has been grabbing attention thanks to AI storage demand and earnings expectations, at least with profits and orders to count on; SPCX currently relies more on scarce float, institutional endorsement, and future imagination.
One is driven up by performance, the other supported by chip structure valuation; both look hot on the surface, but their underlying logic is completely different.
So what SPCX should focus on next isn’t how many big institutions are still on the list, but how many chips are willing to sell after lock-up expires, and whether the market can absorb them.
Heavy institutional holdings show confidence, but the more concentrated the chips, the bigger the stir when they actually loosen.
$BTC
#SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #SPCX Shareholding Structure Revealed, Harvard's 13F Heavy Position
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. SPCX's latest 13F reveals the bottom cards: Elon Musk holds an absolute 46% controlling stake, with Alphabet, FMR, Berkshire, PIF, Temasek, and Ark all clustered together. Harvard Management Company held tightly onto 12,935,100 shares, worth about $2.21 billion, at the end of Q2, accounting for 52% of its publicly disclosed US stock portfolio of 4.26 billion, a single stake that outshines TSMC's 350 million shares, which can only be the runner-up.
Let me pour some cold water first: this $2.2 billion was not bought at a high in Q2; it originated from a private seed round over a decade ago, converted to IPO circulating shares, with explosive unrealized gains on the books. Its nature is "locked-in long-term capital confirmation," not a smart money signal for bottom-fishing right now. From a mid-term perspective, Starlink + launches + AI computing power + defense contracts all bundled into one code, and institutions' logic of pricing aerospace as next-generation infrastructure holds up. However, after the IPO, the price dropped from 225 to 104 before rebounding to 140, indicating a significant short squeeze component and fully priced expectations.
I won't compete with Harvard's patience; mid-term, I will wait for a pullback to the 120–130 range before considering support, and will not chase a surge above 160+. The real positive is the cluster of long-term locked-in capital; the real risk is founder stock unlocking and profit realization timing. Stories are stories, positions are positions.
$SPCX $BTC BTC trading volume shrinks, can ETF buying pick up?
Currently, BTC spot trading volume continues to contract, market liquidity has significantly cooled, and the market is stuck in a typical "low-volume consolidation pattern." The market generally hopes that spot ETF capital inflows will bring incremental support, but the core reality must be recognized: ETF buying recovery is a necessary condition for market recovery but is insufficient alone to drive a trend reversal. The volume contraction reflects two signals: short-term speculative trading willingness has sharply declined, and retail participation continues to weaken; meanwhile, those trapped above are unwilling to cut losses, and bottom-fishing funds remain cautious, resulting in a temporary stalemate between bulls and bears. In a liquidity-starved environment, the market becomes extremely sensitive, and even small selling pressure can trigger rapid fluctuations, increasing the risk of leveraged fund liquidations. Looking at ETF funds: the recent redemption peak has passed, outflow scale is gradually slowing, which is a positive marginal signal. But narrowing outflows ≠ immediate sustained net inflows. Institutional fund decisions are highly tied to two variables: Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and U.S. stock risk appetite. As long as U.S. Treasury yields remain high, funds tend to stay in AI tech stocks, gold, and other assets, making it difficult for crypto to gain sustained new allocations. A common misconception: interpreting a single day's brief net inflow as a capital reversal. Historical patterns show that only when ETFs generate continuous multi-day, stable net inflows can effective buying support be established #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Why is liquidity in the crypto market not as good as in the US stock market???
The US stock market's average daily turnover is stable around $800 billion, with top blue-chip stocks like Apple and Microsoft seeing single-day trading volumes often in the tens of billions. The order book depth is solid, and slippage for large orders in the millions is usually very low. Liquidity is continuous and stable, only contracting during pre-market and after-hours sessions. The overall average daily turnover in the crypto market (spot + futures) is about $260 billion, much smaller than the US stock market, and liquidity distribution is extremely fragmented.
$BTC is the liquidity ceiling in crypto; within a 2% price spread on major exchanges, order book depth is about $400-500 million. Large capital inflows still cause noticeable slippage. Most altcoins have thin order book depth, where orders of just hundreds of thousands of dollars can move prices by several percent. This is the fundamental reason why small-cap coins often experience sharp spikes and both long and short squeezes.
Additionally, the two markets differ greatly in time structure: US stocks only trade during fixed hours on weekdays, concentrating liquidity release; crypto trades 24/7, with liquidity gaps often occurring during Asian sessions and weekends, causing bid-ask spreads to widen instantly. Another often overlooked point is that over 70% of crypto trading volume comes from leveraged futures contracts, not real spot turnover, meaning fake volume is much higher than in the US stock market.
The liquidity gap means the same amount of capital can hardly move the US stock market but can easily change price trends in crypto in the short term. This is the core reason why crypto volatility has long exceeded that of US stocks.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓
Damn, it turns out Harvard is actually the big money behind SpaceX... 😂
The latest 13F disclosure is indeed a bit shocking: Harvard University's endowment fund holds about 12.935 million shares of SpaceX, accounting for more than half of its reported portfolio. Looking further into the shareholder list, there are also big institutions like Nvidia, Alphabet, Fidelity, BlackRock, and others. But I think the logic of “institutional heavy holdings = SpaceX will definitely keep rising” can't be taken at face value; what these institutions are really betting on is probably not just rockets.
It's the $SPCX business chain: Starship responsible for low-cost transport capacity → Starlink controlling the global communication network → AI and space data centers providing the next growth curve.
If Musk's earlier proposal of “ground training, space reasoning” can truly be realized, then SpaceX's future valuation method might increasingly resemble not a traditional aerospace company, but more like an AI infrastructure company with its own energy, communication, and transportation systems.
So compared to how much Harvard bought, I'm more focused on two numbers: when AI revenue will truly scale, and when massive capital expenditures will start converting into cash flow.
Institutional holdings mean someone is willing to bet on the future, but ultimately, what supports valuation is always performance.
But seeing Harvard's position, I still want to say:
The university endowment fund is playing way more aggressively than I am Down 99%+ from its all-time high, and the comment sections are still running 20x-30x math.
$CORE peaked near $6.67 back in 2023 and now trades around $0.0187, having touched a fresh low just weeks ago. That kind of drawdown breeds a very human response: holders reaching for optimistic scenarios as something to hold onto, rather than sitting with the math as it actually stands.
And the math has genuinely changed. Circulating supply has grown from roughly 59 million tokens at launch to well over a billion today, with another billion still to come before hitting the 2.1 billion cap. Whatever produced those early gains happened against a tiny float that no longer exists — replicating that multiplier now requires demand on a completely different scale.
There's a real structural shift worth acknowledging too: the network is moving from token burns toward funding buybacks with actual ecosystem revenue. That's a legitimate upgrade in design, not empty narrative — but even the project's own analysis frames it as conditional, not guaranteed, resting entirely on whether real usage shows up to fund it.
Hope isn't a strategy, and neither is assuming the best-case outcome is the likely one. The realistic path here runs through actual revenue and adoption, not nostalgia for supply conditions that no longer exist.
⚠️ Market perspective only, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#BTCVolumeDriesUp #SPCXOwnershipRevealed #AIInfraEarningsWatch #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
This $AXTI trade is indeed going smoother than expected. Entered at 78.6, I thought I might get stuck for a while. Hahaha, arbitraged 200 times, total profit 21.5U, 30% return, continuing to run.
I read that Serenity piece; the core logic is simple: Nvidia laid out EML and laser capacity ahead of time in 2025, at which point the market mocked “photonics is a bubble.” One year later, $LITE rose 678%, AAOI up 475%, COHR up 261%, AXTI up 3844%. In 2026, Nvidia is repeating the same script—locking CW/EML capacity through long-term agreements, pushing 800V architecture, betting on CPO switching, and listing physical AI as the next theme. The market is still mocking, calling CW players Meme stocks, saying 800V and CPO are too early, and that humanoid robots don’t make money.
AXTI’s 3844% rise is no accident; it’s the photonic interconnect narrative being realized. The current 84.5 is over 7 points higher than 78.6, and the grid is capturing this trend’s volatility. Historical data also supports this judgment: the AI photonic interconnect logic has been validated once, Nvidia’s roadmap has been consistently realized ahead of schedule, and market mockery often means the information gap hasn’t been fully priced in. The advantage of the grid is that you don’t need to decide whether to “get on board”; as long as there’s volatility, you can keep arbitraging.
I don’t plan to close this trade quickly. Let the grid keep running, as long as the volatility remains.August 17 Middle East Situation, Analysis of Impact on the Crypto Market
Currently, US-Iran mediation is at a deadlock, with shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropping to about 70% of normal levels. Last week, Brent crude oil rose 5.95% weekly, WTI crude oil increased 5.40% weekly, and geopolitical risk premiums continue to rise. High oil prices will push up inflation expectations. CME data shows the probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains at 33%. If oil prices rise further, inflation expectations will rebound, and tightening monetary policy expectations will directly suppress valuations of risk assets like crypto.
In the short-term market, crypto is more influenced by sentiment disturbances rather than core drivers. When the situation escalates rapidly, funds prioritize flowing into gold and US Treasuries for safety, and BTC and ETH are likely to face short-term selling pressure; when conflicts ease and safe-haven funds return, crypto will have stronger rebound momentum. Historical data shows that within 1-2 hours of sudden geopolitical news, BTC often experiences rapid spikes or drops of 3%-6%, triggering contract liquidations worth tens of millions of dollars in a short time.
Volatility of theme coins will be further amplified. US stock mapped sectors and small-cap hot tokens are more sensitive to news. During phases of repeated news shocks, there will be significantly more long-short liquidation events.
Currently, the market's main focus remains on awaiting Fed policy signals. The Middle East situation is a variable that will not change the original major trend but will amplify intraday volatility. In trading, continuously track crude oil prices as a leading indicator and strictly control leverage positions to cope with sudden news shocks.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SNDK ASTER｜8/17 Unlock: Unlock date has arrived, but reliable figures are still missing
What needs to be warned is that this is ASTER's largest single unlock of the month, yet on the unlock day there is still no reliable figure: Certik states about 6.099% of circulating supply; CoinLaunch states about 164.7 million tokens (approximately $111 million USD); Tokenomist states about 46.95 million tokens. The three sets of figures differ by several times and none are official announcements or confirmed on-chain; the "reconciliation before 8/17" deadline set by the 8/12 scan has passed without fulfillment, signaling a red flag. If large transfers appear on-chain on this day and the official side remains silent, the supply narrative remains "to be verified" and should not be included in pressure calculations based on any single figure. Verification actions: BscScan vesting contract (0x000A...556A) transfers before and after unlock, official Tokenomics documents, Aster official announcements.[RWA·Tokenization] The SEC has postponed the tokenization exemption again. The White House fears it will disrupt congressional negotiations, and Wall Street's SIFMA also opposes backdoor approaches. Citi says tokenization could reach 5.5 trillion by 2030, but now it's been put on pause. I think it's better to slow down rather than repeat the 2017 ICO-style scams. Are you on the side of regulation or the market? $ETH BlackRock and Nasdaq are all working on tokenized stocks, and DTCC completed real settlement last month. This trend is unstoppable. But the problem is: putting assets on-chain is easy, but making them yield in DeFi is hard. Whoever first runs "collateral + lending + yield" smoothly wins. Have you tried tokenized stocks? $SOL 📊AI infrastructure is all making money, but stock prices are no longer rising—why is that?
The entire chain is counting money
Lumentum's revenue is up 109% year-over-year, Coherent +34%, Cisco AI orders at $9.3 billion, Applied Materials +25% with EPS beating expectations; power, networking, storage—those selling the shovels are all making a fortune.
But despite good earnings reports, stock prices are falling. The market now looks not only at "whether they make money," but also at "whether profits are thick enough and if capital expenditures will consume cash flow." Expectations have long been maxed out; meeting expectations is equivalent to underperforming.
Money has been made, but the stock price has already told the story in advance, so the current stock price is the peak. Expectations were fully priced in at the beginning of this year
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 $SPCX remains fluctuating around $140, with one side driven by the allocation narrative triggered by institutional heavy holdings disclosure, and the other side facing the test of upcoming supply release.
After rebounding over 20% post the earlier lock-up expiration and recovering above the $135 issuance price, the market currently shows a relatively restrained wait-and-see attitude at this price level.
By the end of Q2, Harvard Management Company held about 12.9351 million shares, accounting for more than half of its public US stock holdings. Combined with deep involvement from tech giants and sovereign funds, this has boosted market risk appetite for the computing infrastructure sector.
Whether the nominal heavy endorsement matches the real secondary market absorption capacity remains to be confirmed. The lag in 13F data means the early chip structure may have undergone position adjustments in the past month and a half.
If secondary market liquidity can smoothly absorb the incremental supply and the price holds above $135, market preference is expected to continue, opening valuation repair space toward the seller target mean.
If the new round of lock-up expiration on August 20 triggers intensive cashing out by early shareholders, breaking below the issuance price midpoint will spread risk aversion sentiment and intensify drawdown pressure caused by high concentration positions.
With quarterly revenue exceeding expectations but still in a cash-burning state fundamentally, any supply-side disturbance will amplify divergences in valuation tolerance among holding funds.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is the thickness of the support at the key $135 level when the August 20 lock-up expiration arrives.
#霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场A ranking that used to decide everything in crypto is starting to matter a lot less.
Bitwise's CEO told CoinDesk this week that the industry is moving past what he calls the "CoinMarketCap leaderboard" era — the old habit of pricing a new blockchain as a discounted fraction of whatever sat above it in market cap. $HYPE is his go-to example: investors aren't comparing it to bigger chains anymore, they're looking straight at Hyperliquid's trading volume and revenue engine instead.
The numbers back up why. Hyperliquid routes close to 99% of its fees into buying back and burning its own token, having removed roughly $1.3 billion worth since launch — and it still trades at a modest earnings multiple for a fintech platform growing this fast. Uniswap does comparable spot volume to Coinbase yet carries a fraction of the market cap. Aave and Morpho together dominate on-chain lending while sitting at a combined valuation smaller than plenty of tokens with far less actual usage.
The takeaway: size on a leaderboard was never the same thing as value. As more protocols tie real revenue directly to token holders, the gap between "ranked highly" and "actually earning" is becoming the thing worth watching.
#BTCVolumeDriesUp #SPCXOwnershipRevealed #AIInfraEarningsWatch
Not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH #SPCX Shareholding Structure Revealed, Harvard 13F Heavy Position
Harvard's endowment fund has made SPCX (SpaceX) its top holding, which is quite interesting. The money from top universities is concentrating in hardcore tech companies, not just pure concept plays. This sends a signal to the market: institutions are voting with real money, choosing assets supported by fundamentals.
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📊 Impact on Mainstream and Altcoins in Crypto
$BTC:
Harvard still holds $100 million in Bitcoin ETFs untouched but has already cleared out its Ethereum ETFs. The stance is clear: Bitcoin is for allocation, Ethereum is currently sidelined. This is a long-term positive for BTC, while ETH loses some institutional backing in the short term.
Altcoin $BEAT:
Funds are moving towards projects with real-world applications. Pure concept MEME coins may continue to be drained, while those with genuine business support can survive. BEAT, which has dropped 90% from its peak, might bounce back, but a true reversal depends on whether it has real substance.
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📈 Market Trend Analysis
SPCX crashed from its IPO to just over 90, now rebounding to around 140 and consolidating within a wide range of 90-175. At about 140, it’s right in the middle of the range, with no clear direction for bulls or bears. The key level is 148-150; a strong breakout above this with volume targets 165-170. Falling below 136-137 signals short-term weakness, with support expected around 130-125.
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📌 $SPCX Trading Strategy
Chasing longs at this level is not cost-effective; it’s the middle of the range and uncomfortable both ways. Wait for a pullback to stabilize around 133-130 before buying, or wait for a confirmed breakout above 148-150 before entering. Manage position size carefully; this stock is volatile, so don’t go all in. Around 140, it’s best to observe first and let the market choose a direction.
As usual, start with a light position to test, and set stop-loss orders properly. Weekend shopping list is the real test of wallet balance
Recently, discussions about stablecoin payments have been very popular, but I think many people are looking at it the wrong way.
The key is not who launched a new concept, but who can get the money in the wallet to real consumption faster.
Having 500 USDT in the wallet does not mean you have the shopping power of 500 USDT today. AI membership expiration, software subscription fees, temporary gift card purchases, weekend shopping—these are all definite expenses, but many people still treat them as investment paths.
What’s really annoying is not a one-time fee, but having to rethink every small expense: what to exchange, where to go, when it will arrive, what if it fails, and whether it can finally be spent smoothly.
I now prefer to divide money into three layers: a volatile portfolio to continue seeking returns, a stable balance to handle sales, and a consumable amount converted in advance for confirmed expenses in the next 3 to 7 days.
Entrances like payall are suitable to be placed in the third layer. What it solves is not "do I have assets," but "can this money be spent today according to its purpose."$LAB Why "falling below again" is the baseline scenario
Trend structure: The daily chart follows a downward channel, with every rebound being suppressed by the 0.14–0.16 range of trapped positions, showing no sign of reclaiming 0.163 (4h reversal confirmation level).
Unlock selling pressure remains: On August 14, a large unlock occurred (reports say about 16.23 million tokens / another 282M figure is disputed), with monthly unlocks continuing until December. Early private sale cost was 0.025, so selling at the current price still yields huge profits.
On-chain black history: ZachXBT once identified team-associated wallets coordinating the sale of 196 million tokens, with 70.8% of supply marked as Untracked, which could silently dump anytime.
Fragile liquidity: Thin order book, small sell orders can cause sharp price drops, perpetual funding rates have been negative for a long time, dominated by shorts.
Key price levels (USDT)
Immediate weak support: 0.080–0.085 (currently consolidating in this range)
Psychological strong support: 0.070 (historical low; breaking this could lead to 0.05 or even lower)
Resistance above: 0.102 → 0.128 → 0.142–0.163 (failure to hold 0.163 means all rebounds are "dead cat bounces")
In other words: 0.08 is not the bottom, just a thin plank in the downtrend. A volume-driven break below 0.08 → direct test of 0.07; breaking 0.07 → zeroing path opens.#SPCXOwnershipRevealed Post-IPO filings are revealing how concentrated SpaceX ownership may be. Harvard Management reportedly held approximately 12.94 million SpaceX shares worth $2.21 billion at the end of June, representing a large share of its disclosed public-securities portfolio. Nvidia reportedly owned nearly 123 million shares valued around $21 billion, while Alphabet, Fidelity and BlackRock were also identified as major holders.
A 13F filing does not represent an institution’s complete portfolio, so concentration percentages require context. Nevertheless, large strategic shareholders can influence liquidity when lockups expire or portfolio managers rebalance. Nvidia’s position is particularly significant because SpaceX plans to use Nvidia hardware for its AI infrastructure. I see strategic ownership as supportive, but the approaching unlock schedule may create volatility even if the long-term business remains strong. Investors should watch actual selling activity instead of assuming every disclosed holder will remain permanently committed. Harvard's "spaceship" according to the latest 1F data holds 430,000 shares of SPCX at the end of Q2, accounting for 1.50% of the entire US stock portfolio. But real cash can't compare to Musk's 48.4% or Alphabet's 550 million shares. Nvidia, Gafafund, and Jane Street's holdings are also distinctive. Cathie Wood's ARK holds 4.48 million shares, which were truly bought on the secondary market. After SPCX's lock-up expiration, it rebounded to 111, with room for further gains. However, note that 1F data lags by one and a half months, Musk's selling pressure is already evident, Q losses are 500 million but revenue exceeded expectations, so caution is still needed. 💰 Solana’s Kinetics (price velocity) has been negative for 284 consecutive days.
That is a long, sustained directional bleed, and has been pointed down since last November. But momentum is now on the verge of turning positive again.Harvard is truly all in on space this time. The latest 13F reveals that by the end of Q2, Harvard Management Company held 12.93 million shares of SPCX, valued at $2.21 billion, accounting for 52% of its entire publicly disclosed US stock portfolio. With a $4.3 billion portfolio, half is concentrated in a single stock, making it their largest holding.
But at the big players' table, Harvard really doesn't rank high:
Elon Musk himself holds 48.4%, valued at over $900 billion;
Alphabet holds 551 million shares, worth $94.2 billion—invested $900 million in 2015, achieving a 100x return over ten years;
NVIDIA holds 123 million shares, worth $21 billion—but these were obtained via stock swap during SpaceX's acquisition of xAI this year, not bought on the secondary market;
Gigafund holds 172 million shares, worth $29 billion, Jane Street holds 57 million shares, worth $9.7 billion.
Cathie Wood's ARK actually bought on the secondary market, 4.48 million shares worth $765 million, the largest purchase in Q2.
SPCX rebounded over 20% five days after lockup expiration, returning above the $135 issue price, now around $140. Wall Street sell-side average target price is $232, implying 66% upside.
But to pour cold water: 13F data is lagging as of end of June; a month and a half has passed and they have already rebalanced. The second batch of lockup expires on August 20, with another big round in December. Musk's 48.4% is locked until mid-next year, so selling pressure is clear. Q2 loss was $540 million but revenue of $7.8 billion beat expectations; however, Q1 loss was $4.28 billion, still burning cash. Just take a look, don't copy blindly.The revealing number is not just Harvard Management’s roughly 12.935M SpaceX shares, valued near $2.21B at June 30, but their reported weight: about 51.8% of its public-securities portfolio. That is not Harvard’s full asset allocation, yet it still highlights how concentrated disclosed institutional exposure can appear.
With the FT also reporting Nvidia at nearly 123M shares worth about $21B, ownership visibility is improving just as post-IPO lockup expiries could reshape liquidity. My read: unlock timing may matter more for near-term valuation volatility than the prestige of the holder list. Not advice, just analysis.
#SPCXOwnershipRevealedKey points of the article include: · An AI computing power financing platform exceeding $500 billion, but it is clearly stated that this is not orders or funds already received by NVIDIA, and cooperation is still pending final agreement · 13F disclosures of holdings in SpaceX, Intel, CoreWeave, etc. · Items to continue verifying in the August 26 earnings report NVIDIA's most important move last week: inviting financial institutions into the AI infrastructure construction site The company signed memorandums of understanding with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to establish an independent AI computing power financing platform, aiming to gradually mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital. Simply put, NVIDIA hopes to make it easier for customers who need large amounts of GPUs to obtain long-term funding. ⚠️ These six institutions are not directly giving money to NVIDIA, nor are these finalized loan contracts. Official documents clearly state that these are currently memorandums of understanding, and final agreements are still pending. NVIDIA's quarterly holdings report also disclosed: holdings in SpaceX and Intel stocks Approximately $20.976 billion in SpaceX stock Approximately $29.989 billion in Intel stock ⚠️ These are quarter-end holdings disclosed last week and do not mean these stocks were all purchased last week. [August 10] Six financial institutions entered the scene Is it worth paying attention to? Yes, for two reasons. First, NVIDIA is starting to handle customer funding issues more directly. Previously, selling chips focused on product performance and$XCH 很多人还在讨论Permuto什么时候推出产品，却忽略了一件更重要的事： Permuto的第一个产品，其实已经出现了。 它不是微软股票凭证，也不是传统意义上的代币化证券，而是一个全新的交易品种——svPerps。 第一轮测试已经结束，2万美元测试奖励已经发放。接下来，svPerps准备向符合资格的非美国用户开放交易。 这说明它已经不再停留在白皮书、概念图或者监管文件里，而是开始从测试环境走向真实市场。 但svPerps究竟是什么？ 很多人看到“Perps”，第一反应会以为它只是另一种永续合约。 BTC涨就做多，BTC跌就做空；英伟达涨就赚钱，英伟达跌就亏钱。 如果只是这样，市场早已有无数竞品，Permuto也没有必要重新设计一个产品。 svPerps真正交易的，不是标的资产的价格方向，而是它的波动率。 这是完全不同的概念。 假设某只股票今天从100美元涨到110美元，明天又从110美元跌回100美元。 从方向上看，价格最后几乎没有变化 但在这段时间里，它经历了剧烈波动。 传统永续合约交易者必须判断它究竟会涨还是会跌，一旦方向判断错误，即使市场波动很大，仍然可能亏损。 svPerSanDisk’s rally isn’t just about momentum—it’s a valuation reset. 🚀
Investor Day highlighted three major catalysts:
•AI inference is creating structural NAND demand
•$93.9B in long-term contracts improves revenue visibility
•Higher-margin targets are forcing the market to rethink valuation
The bigger story is the shift from a cyclical storage play to an AI infrastructure thesis
That’s why capital is repricing $SNDK so aggressively.
#BTCVolumeDriesUp #SPCXOwnershipRevealed #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SPCX Shareholding Structure Revealed, Harvard 13F Heavy Position
1. Real-time Data
SPCX current price $140, down 0.91% intraday, total market value $1.8 trillion; Harvard Fund holds 12.9351 million shares, with a position value of $2.21 billion, making it their top US stock holding. The institution also holds $BTC spot ETF with a position size of $101 million; BTC current price 62900, market trading volume continues to shrink, spot ETF sees slight net outflow.
2. Core Logic
Harvard's long-term layout represents institutional confidence in the space AI computing power sector; Musk-related narratives indirectly boost $DOGE market sentiment; computing power and on-chain asset narratives benefit SOL and TAO. However, SPCX valuation is relatively high, with large-scale unlocks approaching, institutional profit-taking may divert risk market funds, suppressing short-term cryptocurrency gains.
3. Personal View
Avoid chasing high-flying themes; for long-term steady investment, consider $TAO and $SOL; only small positions for short-term speculation on $DOGE news-driven market. Currently, market liquidity is weak overall, so maintain light positions and wait for capital inflow signals.
This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.Everyone in the crypto circle is saying there will be a final drop in October.
Right now, the brothers holding U in the crypto circle, all suffer from the same problem: they keep waiting every day for the legendary final drop, just like waiting at the village entrance for a blind date to show up—eating poorly, sleeping badly, and checking the app every two minutes.
I haven't escaped it myself, tightly clutching the U in my pocket. I've memorized the little notebook with Ethereum at 1200-1500 and SOL at 35-60, chanting every day: Hurry up and crash! Smash the market hard! Give me a chance to bottom-fish and get on board! Just waiting for a big pit to open, then go all in to hoard coins, and afterwards lie flat and relax while waiting for the bull market to take off.
But the market, this old trickster, knows exactly how to manipulate retail investors' minds. The big drop everyone is eagerly waiting for, it insists on playing hide and seek with us. $OKB
Looking back at the real crash during the 2022 FTX collapse, no one was hoping to bottom-fish; everyone was scared out of their wits, only focused on cutting losses and escaping. The ground was littered with cheap chips, but everyone stayed far away, no one dared to reach out and pick them up. When the ultimate panic moment arrived, fear locked the brain completely, and the pre-written bottom-fishing plans were scrapped.
Now the situation is completely reversed. The entire network has reached a consensus: there will definitely be a final drop later. Everyone has their bullets ready and has calculated their entry points, just waiting to pick up cheap chips. The main players aren’t stupid; how could they actively smash the market to hand out freebies?
Even if there is a final drop, even if it’s in October, Ruoshui would think this drop should first be a rise to lure those who missed out to get on board, then release huge negative news to smash the market, making retail investors afraid to get on board!! They might even hand over their chips!! $BTC $ETH #Ethereum Hegotá Upgrade: Combining Privacy, Censorship Resistance, and Scalability in One Fork
On August 16, Ethereum Foundation's Toni Wahrstätter posted the initial shortlist for the 2027 Hegotá upgrade on X: 66 EIPs made the candidate list, with upcoming core developer meetings deciding the final inclusion. Unlike Pectra, which focuses on staking and account abstraction, Hegotá aims to bundle three originally separate initiatives together: native privacy, censorship resistance, and scalability. EIP-8081 is the meta EIP for this upgrade, with all candidates listed under it.
FOCIL is already on board as the flagship of this upgrade
FOCIL (EIP-7805, Fork-choice enforced Inclusion Lists) is listed as Scheduled under EIP-8081 and is the first proposal confirmed for this upgrade. The mechanism requires validators to construct a mandatory inclusion list of transactions that must be included in blocks; proposers cannot bypass this. This is a censorship resistance structure addressing the reality where MEV-Boost proposers might exclude certain addresses due to regional censorship demands.
EIP-8081 naming FOCIL as the flagship signals the upgrade’s direction: Ethereum is proactively elevating censorship resistance from verbal consensus to protocol-level enforcement. This also explains why @dataalways repeatedly said on X that if FOCIL doesn’t make it this time, it could be years before it returns—not due to engineering challenges but political decisions.
Privacy trio: Bringing privacy back from L2 to L1
The candidate list includes three privacy-related EIPs: EIP-8141 Frame Transactions, EIP-8250 Keyed Nonces for Frame Transactions, and EIP-8272 Recent Roots for Frame Transactions. This combination allows users to construct unlinkable transactions directly at the protocol layer, eliminating reliance on L2 privacy protocols or mixers.
If all three are included, the $ETH narrative will shift significantly: from the past two years’ division where L1 handled settlement and privacy was on L2, to L1 itself supporting privacy primitives. Alongside Circle’s 9/16 launch of the ARC privacy stablecoin mainnet and Tether completing four major audits, the industry trend is treating privacy as infrastructure rather than a fringe feature.
On scalability, Quick Slots (EIP-8198) proposes reducing SLOT_DURATION from 12 seconds to 8 seconds and remains Proposed; Ethereum traditionally only adjusts one major feature per upgrade, so this may be postponed to a later phase.
Staking inflation reform: Morton's Fork is the toughest political judgment this time
EIP-8363 Tapered Issuance Burn is the most controversial candidate. The mechanism increases the proportion of validator rewards burned as the staking rate rises; at 50% saturation, new issuance is burned 100%, effectively stopping new $ETH issuance to stakers beyond saturation. The goal is to curb over-staking and prevent stETH from absorbing circulating supply.
However, this introduces a dilemma dubbed Morton's Fork by HTX and Galaxy: either cut staking rewards and push retail validators out, leading to centralization, or keep high rewards allowing large institutions to profit and also centralize. Solana faces the same dilemma, and neither chain has found a perfect solution.
According to the official EIPs page, this proposal is still Draft, not Scheduled; Galaxy’s 8/7 report also confirms it hasn’t been finalized or voted on. Including it in the Hegotá candidate list is a political probe, not a settled direction.
Market view: Narrative momentum is building gradually, not priced in at once
$ETH perpetual on 8/17 at 11:50 is $1,903.91, +1.13% in 24h; funding rate +0.0070% near zero; OKX single-block SWAP oiUsd about $1.34 billion. The news of FOCIL inclusion and the privacy trio entering candidates came on 8/16, but the market didn’t jump immediately—Hegotá is a 2027 event, so it’s not a short-term catalyst. The 24h gain is more than double BTC’s, showing narrative momentum is gradually building.
If you’re betting on Hegotá’s pace, watch upcoming core developer meetings from September to December: whether FOCIL remains Scheduled, how many of the privacy trio get included, and whether EIP-8363 advances or stays Draft. The fate of EIP-8363 will determine if $ETH’s issuance curve changes before 2027.
Let’s discuss three questions.
FOCIL enforces censorship resistance at the protocol layer—do you see this as solidifying Ethereum’s neutrality or creating new regulatory conflict points?
If the native privacy trio all get included, will L2 privacy solutions on ETH (like Aztec, Fhenix) be pushed out of the narrative?
On EIP-8363 Morton's Fork, which side are you on—cut staking rewards to prevent over-staking, or keep rewards to prevent centralization?
$ETH $BTC #Ethereum #Hegotá #FOCIL #EthereumUpgrade