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BlockInfinity Market Watch · 8/20: Short Squeeze Final Stage, Full-Cycle Extreme Overbought, Four Macro Signals All Bearish Qualitative: Depreciation/fiscal trades combined with a violent short squeeze (94% of 24h liquidations are shorts) have pushed BTC/ETH to full-cycle extreme overbought; however, US stocks risk-off, spot discount, oil rally fueling rate hike narrative, and options magnet all lie below — bulls are "fuel for shorts" rather than driven by new money. 📊 Price Snapshot (12:10 PM #BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain?
BTC broke 77500, rising nearly 20% in three days
The box that circled for months was pierced through with a single line
The question is who will catch it
The short squeeze wave is almost over
ETF had a net inflow of 600 million the day before yesterday, one of the strongest capital signals
But today's market is obviously not as strong as the previous two days
So my judgment is that the short squeeze phase is over
The next step relies on spot buying
Hold steady at 77000, waiting for the full week ETF data $MOVE experienced a short-term surge driven by buying pressure and ecosystem liquidity stimulation, but the main core contradiction in the subsequent long-short game focuses on the large-scale unlocking and the bankruptcy risk of the original core development company.
In terms of driving factors, institutional buying and the mainnet launch have temporarily raised market risk appetite, but token inflation and chip clearing pressure still constrain sustainability.
World Liberty Financial's purchase of about $2 million worth of tokens has established short-term liquidity support, while the approximately 165 million tokens unlocked in August and the same amount scheduled to unlock on September 9 (about 1.6% of the total supply) determine the upper limit of inflationary selling pressure.
The event risk of the original core development company MVMT Labs filing for bankruptcy is intensifying position divergences and profit-taking willingness during the rebound process.
The bullish scenario requires the price to remain steadily above the $0.0085 level. If turnover is smooth and there is a volume breakout above the $0.009 resistance, the price is expected to further rise to the $0.010 to $0.011 range; if the price falls below $0.0085 on low volume, the bullish scenario fails.
The bearish scenario focuses on position hedging sentiment before the large unlocking in September. If the price breaks the key support at $0.008, risk aversion triggered by the bankruptcy event will accelerate profit-taking; if the price holds above $0.009 on volume, the bearish scenario fails.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the chip accumulation status at the $0.0085 support level and the strength of spot buying in absorbing inflationary selling pressure before the large unlocking on September 9.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元The move above $77K looks more like a broad risk rebound than a BTC-only breakout. ETH and SOL are leading on the day, which points to improving appetite for beta, but not yet to a clean change in the macro regime.
Revived US PMI strength keeps rate expectations restrictive, so I would treat this rally as credible but fragile. If BTC can hold strength while higher-beta assets cool, the advance becomes healthier. For now, chasing the fastest mover looks less compelling than watching whether flows consolidate.
Just my read, not advice.Guys, I'm Ergou. My 25U account increased tenfold in two weeks, and my account went to zero recently. It wasn't a sneak attack from a dog dealer, nor a forced liquidation—it was a misjudgment and a reckless opening of the position. Holding my phone, I stared at the 0.88 profit margin from that BEAT short order flashing before my eyes—it could have saved my life, but ended up dying with SanDisk along with me. Today, I'm going to peel these two losing deals apart for you to watch as jokes, but if I can avoid one pitfall, Ergou's tuition fees won't be for nothing. --- First note: White House encrypted meeting, what is Ergou doing? Market: $BTC From 63,000 all the way to 79,000, a 16,000-point increase—even rocket launches aren't this strong. The U.S. previously announced plans to make BTC a state-owned asset and stockpile it as "crypto gold"—such a nuclear-level positive news had already been whispered long ago. What was Ergou doing at that time? I opened a short position at 66750! The reason is very "professional"—"RSI is already 80, the upper Bollinger band has broken down, shouldn't this be the time for a pullback?" But the dog owner turned around and slapped him: "Technical analysis?" What kind of trash is that? I only watch the news! " Ergou's Bloody Lesson: News is your own father, but technology is your godfather! White House crypto seminar: The U.S. plans to treat BTC as a strategic reserve—would you still dare to short in the face of such news? Isn't that equivalent to going long on gold the day before the Fed announces a rate hike? The correct approach is: if the news spreads early→ close your eyes to 63,000, close your eyes and go long→ stop loss at 61,500→ reach 79,000, enough to hold for three years.BTC surged 24% in three days: Is this really different this time?
In just three days, BTC shot up from $64,100 to $79,500, an increase of over 20%! $ETH also simultaneously hit $2,450. A few days ago, the market was still talking about a “bear market,” but three big bullish candles have directly shifted sentiment from panic back to greed.
But what’s truly worth being cautious about is: Is $79,500 the restart of a bull market, or the last celebration after shorts were forced to liquidate?
This rally isn’t just driven by sentiment. Improved macro liquidity, rising expectations for US crypto regulation, and the return of BTC spot ETF funds have together ignited this move. Especially with institutional money re-entering, this rally carries more weight compared to a pure retail-driven surge.
However, don’t rush to celebrate. Over the past 24 hours, the entire market has liquidated more than $840 million, with shorts accounting for about $670 million. Short squeezes can push prices up quickly, but after the squeeze ends, the real trend depends on sustained spot buying.
Next, I’m focusing on three key points:
① Whether BTC ETFs can maintain net inflows;
② Whether Coinbase premiums can stabilize and turn positive;
③ Whether BTC can hold the $72K–$75K breakout zone.
If it holds, a pullback might be an opportunity; if it falls back, those chasing highs might become the last bag holders.
Is $79.5K the start of a new bull market, or the shorts’ last collective “surrender”? The answer is still in the market.
#DailyOrbit A week has passed, and the Asteroid market has most likely stabilized, with a possibility of a trend reversal. Let's take a look at the data compiled by Dansha!
Data changes of the top 40 Asteroid holders as of 2026.8.22
1: Uniswap inflow 2.36%
MEXC outflow 23.2%
2: Top 10 addresses: no change
Top 20 addresses: 1 increased position, 1 decreased position, 1 new entry
Top 40 addresses: 3 new entries, 1 decreased position, 3 increased positions
$Asteroid Daily Key Summary:
After a week of consolidation, Dansha reanalyzed Asteroid. The token price is almost unchanged compared to a week ago. The outflow from MEXC exchange is unusually large. To ensure data accuracy, Dansha specifically checked MEXC holdings from 7.28 to today and confirmed the outflow is real. As for where the outflow went, Dansha did not investigate. The number of holders increasing and decreasing positions among the top addresses is nearly balanced, with only a small difference. There are 4 new addresses in the top 40. Dansha checked these 4 addresses and found that 1 address transferred in, while the other 3 genuinely bought in to enter the top 40. Overall data suggests that selling pressure from top addresses is weakening, and buying demand may even surpass selling. Unless there is extreme negative news or a large holder dumping, the market is most likely stabilized 🔥 Shocking scam? Smart money collectively shorting, $LAB retail investors are being "harvested to the root"!
Not afraid of the main force cutting the chives, but afraid the main force even digs out the roots of the chives!
On August 22, LAB plummeted. On the surface, it was token unlocking, but in fact, it was the project team harvesting. An investor who once had a floating profit of 5.6 million from a $5,000 investment only had $3,219 left at unlocking. On-chain detective ZachXBT tracked the team selling $18.3 million, with internal accusations of controlling over 95% of the supply.
Smart money data is even more brutal: short sellers have a 70.85% profit rate, with floating profits of $1.81 million; long holders only 21.85% profit rate, with floating losses of $2.35 million. The market is voting with its feet.
Operation advice:
Short: aggressive traders enter at current price, conservative traders enter at 0.0820-0.0850
My judgment: This is not a bottom, it's a meat grinder. Whales hold all cheap chips and are still earning funds from the longs. Time favors the shorts. Rushing in to bottom-fish now is likely to be a loss. Wait until volume shrinks and smart money switches from short to long before acting.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $BTC breaks through 79,500, triggering a strong short squeeze, with three main bullish logics summarized
BTC stands above 79,500, with about $3 billion liquidated in 24 hours; the buy orders from short covering continue to push the price higher.
Three core reasons for the market strength:
1. U.S. Treasury increases long-term bond repurchases, 30-year Treasury yield falls, easing pressure from high interest rates;
2. White House summit signals crypto-friendly policies, boosting positive industry expectations;
3. Previous short positions accumulated, and after a long consolidation, the breakout triggered concentrated short covering.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 Dalio's news was sensationalized by the headlines. The original statement was not "buy gold and Bitcoin," but: reduce bond holdings, allocate 10–15% to gold, and only put "a little" into Bitcoin — and in his own portfolio, $BTC only accounts for 1% long-term.
These two numbers differ by an order of magnitude, but the headlines merged them into a parallel relationship, changing the meaning.
What’s worth pondering is his choice: in the past 7 days, $BTC +22.5%, gold +4.8%; in 30 days, +18.8% vs. +13.5%. The one that rose more he gives 1%, the one that rose less he gives 10–15%.
This shows his logic is not "which one performs better," but "which one am I confident will still be there when a crisis really hits." Gold has thousands of years of liquidation history, Bitcoin only a decade or so — it’s not about optimism, but the difference in certainty levels.
The trigger point is the Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases. He interprets this as a signal that a crisis is approaching: high deficits, rising interest expenses, possible lack of buyers for U.S. debt, giving a 3-year window (±2 years).
Even his allocation to Bitcoin is as insurance, not as a position.Will SanDisk fall back to $1300: From a high-level pullback to the industry's trump card, where is the downside limit?
After SanDisk hit a historical high of over $2000, it has been fluctuating and consolidating, currently oscillating repeatedly between $1570 and $1630. Many investors who are stuck or looking to buy the dip are asking if it could possibly plunge all the way back down to $1300?
From a short-term capital perspective, the storage sector, after experiencing a previous surge, is indeed facing pressure from profit-taking and valuation digestion. If the US stock market collectively pulls back due to macro interest rate disturbances, it is entirely possible for SanDisk to test the support zone between $1400 and $1450.
However, expecting it to break through the defense line and fall back to $1300 or even lower is an extremely low probability event under the current industry fundamentals.
The core logic lies in the fundamental change in the commercial nature of storage chips. The explosive demand from large-context models for enterprise-grade high-density QLC eSSD has propelled SanDisk from a low-margin cyclical stock to a core position in AI-customized infrastructure. Long-term order agreements with leading cloud providers have locked in profit floors, and the forward valuation corresponding to $1300 has already been compressed into a safety zone that institutional funds cannot ignore.
At this stage, it is crucial not to leverage up during the volatility, but if market sentiment truly offers a deep dip opportunity between $1350 and $1400, it would actually be a high risk-reward defensive zone for accumulating spot positions in batches.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 After the U.S. stock market closed on Friday, the $HOOD token remained in a negative premium range, trading alone over the weekend without the spot stock pricing anchor.
On the chart, the token price is close to the upper Bollinger Band, and the daily RSI has reached a relatively high level of 69.2, with upward momentum slowing down.
The U.S. stock surged more than 13% in a single day, boosted by the crypto market rally, but the off-exchange token failed to fully follow, widening the discount rate to -0.68%.
The stock market closure temporarily disrupted the cross-market arbitrage mechanism, and the thinner liquidity over the weekend amplified the disconnect between short-term sentiment and fundamental anchors.
If the overall crypto asset heat continues to spill over during the weekend, buying support may narrow and turn the token premium positive, but this requires the price to effectively break through the previous high resistance at 109.62.
If short-term momentum from trend-following traders exhausts, profit-taking at high levels without spot buying support may trigger a sentiment pullback, and breaking below short-term moving average support will confirm a correction.
The off-exchange premium change before the U.S. stock market opens on Monday will directly verify whether weekend sentiment pricing has detached from the stock valuation constraints.
The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is whether the Nasdaq-related tokens and mainstream crypto asset trends can continue to provide premium recovery momentum for this token.
#Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战The weekly Bitcoin spot ETF data is fully out.
As expected, it is indeed the largest single-week net inflow this year.
There is a logic behind the data of this rally worth paying attention to.
This time, the $BTC weekly price increase is the largest in the past two and a half years, but the inflow volume has not yet exceeded several peak values from earlier this year, so it can only be considered a normal amount.
The essence of price movement is: buying power vs selling power.
This rally is not because the buying power suddenly became super strong, but because the sellers' willingness dropped to freezing point, so it only took a little push to ignite the fuse and send the price up.
Therefore, now the price is determined jointly by capital inflow and supply contraction.
Looking at the ETF inflow volume in the past two days, on the 21st it was nearly 50% less than the previous day (this change might just be noise).
If ETF inflows continue to slow down but the price remains strong,
then it can further validate a viewpoint: near $80,000, holders' willingness to supply has still not significantly increased.
This situation will amplify volatility because when the market enters a low supply state, the price's sensitivity to marginal capital increases significantly.
A small amount of new buying power may drive a larger price increase, and vice versa as well. This Rally May Not Be as Solid as It Looks
$BTC’s move toward $80K has real catalysts, but the market structure still demands caution. Spot ETF inflows and improving liquidity provide support, while over $4.3B in shorts have been liquidated, amplifying the upside. However, crowded longs increase volatility risk. If ETF demand and liquidity strengthen, the rally becomes more credible. Otherwise, this could still be a massive Short squeeze rather than a sustained trend. Recently, major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have surged significantly, driving a strong rebound in the overall market and ending a prolonged period of low-level consolidation. This round of sharp rise is the result of multiple positive expectations resonating together.
1. On the macro level, expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. market have intensified, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, and the U.S. dollar has weakened. Global risk appetite has increased, providing liquidity support for highly volatile crypto assets.
2. On the policy sentiment level, expectations for an optimized U.S. crypto regulatory framework have risen, and rumors of industry benefits have spread, directly igniting bullish market sentiment. On the trading side, a large number of short positions had accumulated previously; after the price broke through key levels, it triggered a concentrated short squeeze, creating a forced upward rally that amplified the gains. Meanwhile, overseas spot ETF funds have flowed back, and whales have increased holdings at low levels, further solidifying short-term buying.
Regarding the sustainability of the trend, this round of rise is mainly driven by expectations, sentiment, and leverage, rather than a fundamental reversal. After the short-term short squeeze momentum is exhausted, a rapid correction is very likely. The medium-term trend entirely depends on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy pace, the progress of U.S. digital asset legislation, and whether institutional funds can continue net inflows.
Overall assessment: This round of market movement is a phase of oversold rebound, not the start of a new long-term bull market. #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC $BTC
Trump is a businessman
It's not entirely that what Trump says is false, but it means the "statement" as a signal source itself is not neutral—those who are bullish partly have vested interests.
You can't tell if this sentence is a "presidential policy judgment" or a "businessman hyping his own assets."In the afternoon cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin experienced a sharp, market-wide synchronized drop. In the weekend's low liquidity environment, a technical breakdown triggered a chain of contract liquidations. The market quickly plunged, with the vast majority of cryptocurrencies falling simultaneously. According to public position data, after today's market plunge, Huang Licheng twice increased his BTC long positions against the trend. First, he added 80.89 BTC, equivalent to $6,446,200, bringing the total position size to $68,839,900, with an average holding price of $77,980.20, a floating loss of 27.65%, and a liquidation price of $67,093.83. One hour later, he added another 30.11 BTC, investing about $2,281,400. The two additions total 111 BTC, with a total investment exceeding $8.72 million. After the second addition, the total account position rose to $71,121,400, and the average holding price slightly diluted to $77,951.30. However, as the coin price continued to weaken, the account's floating loss further expanded to -29.01%. A key notable change: after adding positions, the liquidation price rose from $67,093.83 to $67,598.49. Many traders mistakenly believe that adding to a losing position can increase the safety margin. In fact, in a leveraged account, adding to a losing position raises the liquidation threshold. This operation is a double-edged sword: if the market rebounds above the average holding price of $78,000, the two additions will quickly reduce account losses and even turn losses into profits; but if the price continues to decline, approaching the $67,598 liquidation price... #Banking Industry Supports CLARITY, Stablecoin Rewards Become Controversial
Compliance narrative heats up, oracle leader LINK indirectly benefits.
Current price 11.79, 1-hour and 4-hour trends both rising, but order book sell orders 3127 far exceed buy orders 1845, obvious seller pressure. Funding rate 0.01% slightly positive, longs pay fees but are not decisive.
Short-term resistance at 12.5, breakthrough target 13.0; support at 11.5, strong support at 11.0.
Strategy: Wait for a pullback near 11.5 to go long, stop loss at 11.1, target 12.5. Heavy selling pressure, do not chase highs.
Risk: Continued increase in sell orders suppressing rebound; market weakens if 11.0 breaks, downside target 10.5.
——Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading.——
#Banking Industry Supports CLARITY, Stablecoin Rewards Become Controversial
$LINK This Rally May Not Be as Solid as It Looks
$BTC’s move toward $80K has real catalysts, but the market structure still demands caution. Spot ETF inflows and improving liquidity provide support, while over $4.3B in shorts have been liquidated, amplifying the upside. However, crowded longs increase volatility risk. If ETF demand and liquidity strengthen, the rally becomes more credible. Otherwise, this could still be a massive Short squeeze rather than a sustained trend. 比特币从6.4万美元附近一路冲到7.9万美元，几天时间接近25%，空头直接被干掉几十亿美元。 这轮上涨有个细节挺关键：美国财政部把长期国债回购规模翻倍，从单次20亿美元提到40亿美元。30年期美债收益率随之从19年高位回落，市场对流动性的担忧也跟着松了一口气。 然后就是熟悉的剧本——BTC突破关键位置，空头止损，连环爆仓，价格越涨越有人追。周三以来这一波，杠杆资金基本成了最大的燃料。 但现在问“牛市是不是回来了”，我觉得还早。 确实有不少信号开始转强，BTC重新站上关键均线，突破7万美元、7.5万美元这些位置后，市场情绪明显变了。也有分析师认为，连续突破加上空头挤压，已经很像熊市底部反转的样子。 可问题也摆在这儿这波涨得太快了。 如果后面没有持续的现货买盘接力，只靠空头爆仓把价格顶上去，冲得越猛，回踩也可能越狠。 另外一个信号更夸张——Zcash直接冲破800美元，创多年新高，短线涨幅接近50%。 BTC开始走强，资金又跑去炒隐私币，这说明市场的风险偏好确实在回来。 我现在更愿意把这波看成：熊市反转的可能性明显提高，但还没到闭眼喊牛回速归的时候。 真正要看的，是BTC回踩7万、7.5万The US stock market rebound is an illusion; the real risk lies in US Treasury yields!
On Friday, US stocks rebounded with the Dow rising 517 points, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.43% each, but all three major indices still closed lower for the week, with tech stocks remaining the main source of selling pressure this week.
The tech sector fell more than 3% this week, with some popular AI and growth stocks experiencing significant pullbacks, indicating that short-term pressure on high-valuation sectors remains considerable.
However, the long-term logic for AI has not changed, and capital has clearly started rotating into healthcare, finance, raw materials, and cryptocurrency concept stocks.
Bitcoin rose about 22% in a single week, driving strong rebounds in Robinhood, Coinbase, and others.
Trump has again called for advancing the CLARITY Act, which has also added policy expectations to the crypto market.
What really needs attention now is the US Treasury.
The 10-year yield has risen back to around 4.73%, and the 30-year yield has reached 5.27%, with long-term bond rates still high.
After US debt surpassed $40 trillion, although the Treasury has increased long-term bond buybacks, the market does not believe this will solve the fiscal deficit and debt expansion issues.
For US stocks, continued rises in long-term bond yields mean valuation pressure, especially for tech growth stocks.
However, if AI companies can maintain high-speed profit growth, this pressure will not easily change the long-term logic of tech stocks.
Two things are most worth watching next week:
One is the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation and interest rates at the Jackson Hole meeting.
$BTC #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
Many people overlook the hidden risks in derivatives. During this rally, the contract market has accumulated a lot of long leverage.
Once the price at the high level drops, leveraged long positions will trigger a chain of liquidations, further amplifying the correction. Even if the spot market logic remains intact, the contract market can still cause a short-term sharp decline.
Currently, the market is in a very conflicted situation:
Spot ETFs are still seeing inflows, representing large funds willing to buy for the medium to long term, but many short-term traders are rushing in on the positive news, pushing leverage higher. Institutions buy with a multi-month big-picture view, while contract traders are betting on breaking 80,000 soon; the timeframes are completely different.
Two types of shakeouts:
① Time for space
If the price doesn’t drop significantly, it will oscillate back and forth within the large range of 74,300‑79,603.
Repeated spikes up and down will wash out leveraged positions chased at high levels and fully digest floating chips. After sufficient washing out, the price will attempt to test the 80,000 level again. This movement doesn’t look scary but is very mentally exhausting, sweeping stop losses back and forth.
② Violent pullback
Directly breaking below the key moving average at 74,311 triggers a wave of long liquidations.
The first downside target is near the MA90 moving average at 71,102, which is a larger-level support in this round.
Note: Even if it drops to this level, it doesn’t mean the bull market is over; it’s a deep correction after a big rally, but short-term accounts will suffer huge drawdowns, and heavy positions will be painful to hold.
Two signals to watch closely:
1. ETF capital flow must not reverse
The foundation of all bullishness now is the continuous net inflow of ETFs. If ETFs start to see continuous net outflows one day, be alert; institutional funds are starting to withdraw, and the market logic will change.
2. The 74,311 defense line
On the hourly level, as long as the price firmly stands above this moving average, the bullish structure remains; if it breaks down effectively, short-term risk avoidance is necessary, and don’t stubbornly hold on.
Realistic insight:
The phase where it’s easiest to lose money in a bull market is precisely this high-level oscillation period full of positive news.
Everyone is brainwashed by various institutional reports and big names’ speeches, only seeing upward potential in their minds while selectively ignoring correction risks.
It’s not that the market will crash at the top, but the risk-reward ratio at high levels has worsened.
If you haven’t entered, there’s no need to chase the rally; if you already have positions, set a good exit baseline for yourself and don’t blindly hold on.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？
Solana has sped up.
The block time was cut directly from 400 milliseconds to 350 milliseconds, and the next step is to reach 200 milliseconds; the testnet has already achieved 182 milliseconds. Blocks are produced faster, transaction confirmations are shorter, and the experience for high-frequency trading and on-chain applications will be much better.
But the flip side of speeding up is that the node threshold is rising. Validator nodes now require a standard configuration of a 24-core CPU, 512GB memory, enterprise-grade NVMe SSD, and 10G network. If the speed increases further, some nodes may not keep up, operational costs will only rise, and validator concentration might increase.
The impact on SOL can be viewed from two layers.
In the short term, sentiment is positive. The market will give positive feedback to technical upgrades; SOL rose to 88.5, up 5.5%. But the speed-up benefits have already been partially priced in, so don’t blindly chase just because of this.
In the medium term, two things matter: whether node decentralization will worsen due to rising thresholds, and whether the ecosystem can bring more users and on-chain revenue because of the speed-up. If it’s just speed without ecosystem growth, this will be a short-term event.
This cannot be the basis for our operations, so be patient and wait. It’s not too late to decide what to do once the direction of the market is clear.
$BTC $SOL PMI hits a four-year high, the Federal Reserve is arguing, BTC/ETH quietly rejoice
In August, the US composite PMI reached 56.0, the fastest since April 2022, with the services sector soaring to 56.8. The economy is heating up like this, yet selling price inflation has actually cooled down (input costs remain high due to energy) — this data can be interpreted in opposite ways by anyone.
The Federal Reserve has split into two camps: three hawks oppose holding steady, Kashkari says it’s time to start raising rates now; doves point to cooling inflation, Treasury Secretary Yellen says "no need." CME pricing shows 59.9% chance of no change, 40.1% chance of a rate hike, essentially no clear pricing.
The most surprising is the market reaction. PMI beating expectations should theoretically be negative for risk assets, but $BTC pulled up near 79,000, $ETH touched over 2,500, and $SOL was even stronger — today it broke $100 directly, reaching a high of 102.66 (weekly gain over 20%, coinciding with the 350ms Slot upgrade catalyst), with the total market at 2.55 trillion. Why? Because the more contradictory the data, the less the Fed dares to move, and the unresolved September decision is the biggest positive — uncertainty is better than a certain rate hike.
But don’t celebrate too early. Any inflation data before the September FOMC could overturn the table; BTC and ETH are now hanging in midair.
Short-term watching the show, just sharing thoughts.
#美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 1. Saylor is changing the logic behind corporate asset holdings. Michael Saylor's greatest innovation is turning Bitcoin from a personal investment into a reserve asset on a company's balance sheet. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to buy BTC through financing, stock issuance, and other means, deeply binding the company's value to Bitcoin. Currently, Strategy remains one of the world's largest publicly traded Bitcoin holders, holding about 840,000 BTC. The core logic of this model is that cash depreciates due to inflation, while Bitcoin is scarce. Therefore, companies choose to convert part of their funds into BTC, hoping to achieve higher long-term returns. 2. Why has the market started discussing "copying the Saylor model"? As Bitcoin rises, more and more companies are paying attention to this pattern. In the past, companies bought gold and bonds, but now some have asked: Why can't BTC be included in corporate asset allocation? Supporters argue that Saylor has created a new way of managing capital, giving companies a tool to counter currency devaluation. But opponents argue that this is actually a high-risk model. Because the company's value is highly dependent on BTC price increases. If BTC rises for a long time, the company's financing model for buying coins may continuously amplify gains; But if BTC enters a prolonged bear market, it could also amplify corporate pressure. 3. Is the Saylor model really a bubble? The key is not to "buy BTC" itself, but to be$TRUMP
TRUMP (TRUMPUSDT) surged from $1.3 to $2.8, representing a politically driven Meme coin sentiment rally. The direct trigger was Trump's positive statements on crypto, expressing consideration for the U.S. government to purchase digital assets and promote crypto-related legislation, which boosted risk appetite across the crypto market and drove capital into this politically themed token.
At the same time, a short squeeze occurred, with a large number of short positions liquidated earlier, further propelling the price upward rapidly. The market liquidity is thin, so even a small amount of buying can amplify the price surge. This coin has no business operations or cash flow support; its value is entirely tied to the hype around Trump-related news. 80% of the tokens are held by related parties, posing a significant risk of large-scale unlocking and sell pressure.
The market is highly sentiment-driven, and after the positive news is priced in, a rapid decline is very likely. News reversals or regulatory investigations could trigger a sharp crash. Future price movements will depend entirely on political news and capital interest, with no stable fundamentals.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 The script has long been written, but you extras insist on waiting until the sound engineer calls "Cut" before leaving the set.
The $BCH chart is a classic "three-act structure"—Act One is accumulation, Act Two is shakeout, Act Three is distribution. The current price level is exactly the "plot twist" at the end of Act Two. The director has already called "Action" behind the scenes, but the extras are still huddled trembling in the corner of the set.
RSI on the 1-hour chart is 54.9, neither reaching the "wrap-up scene" of overbought nor falling into the "flop warning" of oversold. The Bollinger Bands range from 272.6 to 304.6, this channel is my camera track—the price is slowly climbing along the middle band, much like a handheld stabilizer following the protagonist’s back, slow but steady.
The 282.9 price level is the main scene of today’s shoot. The market makers have set up a stage here, using retail investors’ panic as free props, repeatedly calling "NG" and reshooting the shakeout scenes. Those who cut losses around 270 are the extras who left early, not even getting a boxed lunch.
I’m watching the 4-hour Bollinger Band upper band at 228.79—no, don’t rush, that’s the climax of Act Two. What we need to do now is to enter during this "plot gap," set up the camera between 280 and 285, and wait for the director to call "Roll Sound."
Stop loss is set at 181.33, which is the "bottom line script" of the whole play. If it breaks below, it means the screenwriter has gone mad and the whole film will turn into a horror movie. But in my view, this probability is minimal—because the director hasn’t released the "dialogue" of good news yet.
The box office targets are clear: first stop at 304.6, which is the Bollinger Band upper band and the popcorn moment when the audience is most excited; second stop, let the bullets fly a little longer, see if the 4-hour line can break the previous high and play a "sequel preview."
Now it’s the final three-minute countdown before shooting starts. The lighting crew is in position, the sound engineer is ready, the clapperboard is raised—
- Target: $BCH 🎬
- Entry: 280.5 - 285.5
- TP1: 304.6
- TP2: 228.79
- SL: 181.33
Don’t you dare leave early before the director calls "Cut."
#MarketOverloadWeek 🎥Binance Coin broke 70,000, a data reminder: don't chase D
Behind this surge, there is a very alarming signal: the price is rising, but the spot premium is not following. During the first wave of the rally last night, Binance Coin rose, spot buying followed, and the price and spot premium rose in sync, which is a relatively healthy upward structure.
But today the situation started to change. Binance Coin continued to break through 70,000, yet the Coinbase Premium remained negative, even close to recent lows.
What does this mean?
The price is still rising, but real US spot funds are not chasing the price.
So it looks more like: futures buying → K order covering → leverage pushing the price further up.
This is what I am most cautious about now—the "price rises, spot does not follow" futures divergence. Once this structure persists, the price usually needs to return to find real spot support. So besides holding C as originally planned, I will not chase D here.
69,700 is likely the next position to retest. If after the retest the spot premium strengthens again, that would be a more solid bullish structure.
A truly healthy bull market should not only have rising prices. Spot capital must also keep up.8.22# US PMI hits a four-year high, September rate hike disagreements intensify
Analyzing Gao Zhikai's current prediction of a financial tsunami and the true extent of the US AI bubble!
According to the latest data from August 2026, the US AI industry is already showing signs of a structural bubble, with some indicators even surpassing the peak of the 2000 internet bubble.
1. Valuations severely detached from fundamentals: The S&P 500 Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratio stands at 42.7x, only 1.3 points below the 2000 internet bubble peak. The total market value of the seven major US AI tech giants is $20.72 trillion, accounting for 36% of the S&P 500's total market cap, with market concentration reaching a 30-year record.
2. Input-output completely unbalanced: The five major US tech giants have cumulatively invested $560 billion in AI, but actual AI business revenue is only about $35 billion. For every $16 invested, only $1 is earned back. Leading cloud providers' capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to reach $725 billion, partly relying on debt financing. The industry's financing gap may reach $700-800 billion.
3. Localized bubbles have already burst first: In July 2026, the US AI stock sector suddenly crashed, with giants like Google, Amazon, and Nvidia seeing significant market value evaporation. At the same time, prices for large AI models dropped nearly 25% within a month, and many pure AI concept companies' stock prices have retraced 90% from their highs. The "narrative without performance" bubble has begun to clear out. The truth behind the surge above 77,500: shifting from short squeeze to spot buying, how far can this rally go?
Bitcoin surged nearly 20% in three days to stand above $77,500, directly breaking the months-long low volatility stalemate.
Many are still debating whether this is a false breakout, but the microstructure of the market has already provided the answer. The recent price action may have included a short squeeze stampede, but with a single-day spot ETF net inflow surpassing $826 million and Coinbase spot premium continuing to widen, this rally has completely evolved into real money buying by institutions and large OTC funds in the spot market.
When the nature of capital flow changes, the market's support strength undergoes a qualitative shift. As long as ETF and spot buying do not experience a cliff-like shrinkage, any deep intraday sharp drop will be quickly absorbed by OTC limit orders. In this strong right-side main upward wave, blindly guessing the exact absolute top is not only meaningless but also likely to cause missed opportunities.
In terms of trade execution, the most rational move for low-position holders at this stage is to use dynamic trailing stops to lock in profits. As long as the four-hour volume breakout point is not broken, they should firmly hold onto their low-cost chips. For traders currently out of position, do not chase aggressively at the volume-accelerated peak; patiently waiting for a daily-level low-volume pullback confirmation is a buy point with a better risk-reward ratio.
Are you choosing to continue holding firmly around $77,500 with the trend, or have you already started taking profits in batches?
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ While BTC is driving its price toward $80,000, it is important to note that the real upward momentum in the market comes more from derivatives short covering than from spot buying. Behind the seemingly strong bullish trend, how much do futures market position liquidations and risk re-evaluations contribute? The facts confirmed in the original text are as follows: BTC is in a phase of strengthening buying pressure toward $80,000, and ETH has regained $2,500, confirming its upward momentum. SOL is approaching the key resistance at $100. ETF inflows, expectations of improved liquidity, and short covering were cited as factors supporting the market. However, there was also a warning that as momentum enters an overheated zone, volatility near major resistance levels could increase. The structural characteristic of this movement is the risk reset in the derivatives market. Short covering acts both as a result and a cause of price increases. If liquidations occur in a chain reaction, the speed of the rise accelerates, but the key question is whether spot demand accompanies it to support the sustainability of the rise. ETF inAfter Thursday's daily chart closed, I suddenly felt that ETF inflow numbers were no longer the main focus. Have you ever wondered why this wave of money isn't rushing to altcoins but instead crowding in front of BTC and ETH? The data is actually quite simple: that day, BTC ETFs absorbed 606 million, and ETH ETFs also swallowed 221 million, totaling 827 million USD in one day. Sounds hot, right? But what really interests me isn't the total amount, but the structure—BTC takes the bulk, ETH is just a side note. This is not about sharing the benefits equally; it's about institutions selecting the least likely assets to make mistakes. The market is actually trading an expectation: in a rate-cutting cycle, whoever gains certainty first will absorb the first batch of money. BTC is the narrative of "digital gold," a double insurance combining hedging and appreciation. What about ETH? It is based on the "staking yield + ecosystem recovery" vision, but the pricing for it is clearly more cautious. This difference is not temporary; it is the result of stratified risk appetites—big money seeks stability, while small money gambles on elasticity. A signal that's easy to overlook is: this wave of inflows isn't driven by retail FOMO, but by institutional buying of ETFs. It means that even if prices pull back, as long as the macro market doesn't crash, the money won't be easily withdrawn. Because their holding logic is "configuration," not "strategy." But let's say calmly: this concentrated inflow itself is also a warning sign. When all incremental funds flow into these two targets, the liquidity of the knockoffs is actually being drained. You$BTC surged to $79.8K at one point, then fell back to around $77.1K, signaling a cooling of the short-term rally. This is when emotional trading is most likely to occur: fear missing out when prices rise, panic resumes when pullbacks. But what truly deserves attention is the funding situation. Even when BTC experienced a pullback, spot ETFs still recorded a net inflow of about $320M, indicating that institutional funds did not quickly withdraw due to short-term volatility. Prices cooling down does not mean funds are exiting. If ETF funds continue to flow in during pullbacks, the real key for the market is not "FOMO now," but whether buyers can continue to bear selling pressure and hold key support levels. Don't be led by a single red candlestick. Don't chase emotions, track your funds. 📊💰 #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #CryptoMarketBTC at $78K: Opportunity or FOMO Trap? 🚨
The timeline is full of people yelling “$130K next!” — but after a violent short squeeze, excitement can become more dangerous than the move itself.
Yes, the rally has real fuel behind it: liquidity support, nearly $1B of ETF buying in three days, and massive short liquidations. The logic is real.
But here’s the problem: the market may have already priced in the good news.
#DailyOrbit ZEC has broken 800.
It's not a small rise; it surged over 30% in 24 hours, reaching a high near 859.
The 2018 peak was around 800, and it hasn't returned since. This time it broke through directly.
//
The drivers are clear.
Grayscale is pushing its Zcash Trust to convert into a spot ETF, planned to be listed on NYSE Arca with the ticker ZCSH.
DCG-related entities are also discussing acquiring about 200,000 ZEC through the trust, roughly $160 million at the time.
Institutional allocation expectations have suddenly risen.
//
Another angle is the privacy narrative.
Zcash uses zk-SNARKs, zero-knowledge proofs, with optional privacy.
Shielded pool usage is increasing, the network just completed the Ironwood upgrade, and with the AI era, people are becoming more sensitive to data privacy.
These factors combined have boosted sentiment.
//
The privacy coin sector has been quiet for too long. $ZEC has the highest technical maturity in this segment and the densest institutional signals.
But the 24-hour volatility exceeds 40%, futures trading volume has reached tens of billions of dollars, and leveraged funds are highly involved.
With this kind of movement, the risk of chasing highs goes without saying. Today's big surge in OKB is because Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen for several days, and now at the high level they are starting to adjust, funds are flowing out and back into OKB. What needs to be noted is that this wave started with OKB rising first, and this time in the big market trend, OKB's increase might lead; when OKB rises, others adjust, and when others rise, OKB adjusts.
With the clear bill vote approaching, whether it passes or not this time will not actually affect this round of the crypto market because other countries in the world are advancing crypto legislation. Russia, Japan, etc. If the US does not push forward quickly, it will fall behind. So although there are currently differences between the two parties regarding the bill, I expect both parties will ultimately compromise and pass legislation as soon as possible. The subsequent entry of large institutional funds is an unstoppable trend.
Besides the overall industry benefits, OKB also has the gradual advancement of public chain X. Additionally, after Fec invested in OKX, the expectation of going public has become very clear. Therefore, I am very optimistic about this wave for OKB, and I expect it to at least break a new high above 300. Let's wait and see! #WhiteHouseSummit: Trump said he once discussed buying BTC
Digging deeper, the biggest problem with BTC now: the daily chart is seriously overbought
The 7-day RSI has shot up to 94+, which is an extremely overheated zone. Historically, this value almost always leads to a pullback or consolidation.
The daily price has already broken above the upper Bollinger Band, which is a typical sign of a peak exhaustion rally.
Many only see the rise and don't see the technical correction demand.
It's not a bearish sell-off; the gains are just too large and too fast, so the market must recover and digest the divergence.
The truth about the chip structure
1. Long-term chips are extremely stable
83% of all BTC on the network is held by long-term holders who are not moving it. This is the strongest bottom in a bull market, absolutely no sign of a top.
The main holders haven't fled; the overall trend is completely fine.
2. Short-term floating chips are completely rampant
The recent surge has attracted a massive influx of retail and short-term speculators; the high levels are all trend followers.
The main players are not dumping; they are just not pushing the price up.
Not making new highs is to wear down these high-level trend-following retail investors.
Core details of BTC strength and alt weakness
Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise, with all funds clustering around BTC.
This indicates one thing: institutions only dare to buy BTC, not altcoins.
The market is currently a zero-sum game, not a new bull market with incremental growth.
Without widespread liquidity flooding, BTC's solo new highs have very poor sustainability.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 2) What is noise and what is useful: The comparison of airline ETFs is at the product level and does not reflect industry prosperity or policy changes, so its informational value is limited. Coinbase released a listing roadmap involving four projects: BASECAT, DRB, POD, and GRASS. If trading starts, it may drive small-scale trading activity but lacks direct fundamental support. Venmo paying tuition is an innovation in consumer payments and has no direct transmission path to market sentiment.
The bullish side: If the airline defense sector later discloses actual orders or military budget, it may drive related tech stocks to move together, but currently there is no specific data support. The bearish side: If the market continues to question tech stock valuations or macro data weakens, ETF comparison news may be misread as a signal of industry shift and still needs verification.
What to continue following: Pay attention to whether the US fiscal budget mentions defense spending and whether changes in crypto asset liquidity resonate with US tech stocks. BTC is up 1.18% in 24h, ETH up 2.49%, SOL up 4.30%, with short-term volatility rising, possibly reflecting short-term risk appetite fluctuations but no clear trend formed.
For information and market scenario analysis only, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.The true value of OKB has long been underestimated by many.
Many people only focus on the price fluctuations of OKB, overlooking the real logic behind platform tokens.
In a bull market, most altcoins rise based on sentiment, while platform tokens are more influenced by trading activity, ecosystem development, and user growth. When market volume continues to expand, platform revenue and ecosystem activity increase, platform tokens often undergo a value re-evaluation.
I've recently observed a phenomenon: whenever the market surges, funds flow not only to BTC and ETH but also gradually return to leading platform tokens. The hotter the bull market, the more the platforms benefit—this is a key trend that is often overlooked.
Of course, every coin carries volatility risk, and OKB is no exception. Short-term price changes may be influenced by market sentiment, but what deserves more attention in the long term is whether the ecosystem continues to expand, application scenarios increase, and users keep growing.
My strategy is not to chase the rally but to focus on key levels and changes in market volume. The real big opportunities often come when others are ignoring them, not when the whole network is shouting.
Do you think OKB still has room to rise in this bull market? Feel free to leave your comments for discussion.
#OKB #BTC #ETH #PlatformToken #OKExPlanet @TrendingTopics This morning I saw news that ZEC surged 45% in a single day.
I didn’t chase ZEC at the top; instead, I decisively got on board with ZAMA, which also focuses on privacy but has greater potential.
Looking back now, ZAMA’s gains today have already surpassed ZEC’s.
Feels good.
The logic is actually simple: ZEC is essentially an independent privacy blockchain. If you want privacy, you have to first convert your assets into ZEC, then use ZEC to transfer — adding an extra layer of exchange cost, and the privacy capability is locked within its own chain, unable to break out.
ZAMA is different; it’s middleware, not a new blockchain. It can be directly embedded into Ethereum, Solana, and other blockchains and L2s you’re already using, allowing you to run encrypted smart contracts directly on the original chain without swapping tokens or migrating assets. Privacy is an "add-on" within the ecosystem you’re familiar with, not forcing you to move to a new world.
The technical approaches are from different generations: ZEC uses ZK (zero-knowledge proofs), which essentially means "proving I know a secret without revealing what it is" — it can only verify, but cannot compute directly on encrypted data.
ZAMA uses FHE (fully homomorphic encryption), which allows computation directly on encrypted data, and after decryption, the result is still correct, with data never exposed during the process. ZK is "proof," FHE is "computation," they operate on different dimensions.
So ZEC is a privacy asset, while ZAMA is privacy infrastructure — one is a single point, the other lays pipelines for the entire on-chain world. The imagination space for pipelines is naturally larger than for single-point assets. $ZEC $ZAMA On August 22 today, intraday $BTC spiked down below 77,000 USD, $ETH lost the 2400 level, and $SOL dropped about 11.5%; in the past hour, the entire network liquidations reached 523 million USD, and 1.801 billion USD in 24 hours, with over 286,000 people liquidated, among which long positions accounted for 448 million.
The reason is simple: from August 19 to 21, the market just experienced a short squeeze of nearly 3 billion USD, with BTC quickly rising from 64,000 to above 77,000, gaining over 23% weekly, and high-leverage chasing long positions piled up; today, it hit the 80,000 resistance and pulled back, crowded long positions broke maintenance margin → system automatically liquidated at market price → sell orders further broke through the lower long position defense line, forming a chain reaction of long liquidations. Coinciding with European and American institutions leaving on Saturday and thin order book depth, this further amplified the spike.
Essentially, this is a "reverse stampede after a short squeeze," not a new major bearish event, but an inevitable cleanup under high leverage + liquidity vacuum. 77,000 USD is the current long-short dividing line; holding it means the structure is intact, losing it points to the 74,000-75,000 range.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ The Treasury expands long-term bond repurchases, which sounds like calming the market but actually exposes anxiety.
When long-term bond yields spike, Treasury, mortgage loans, corporate financing, and tech bonds are all strangled by the same rope. The government stepping in to buy back long-term bonds can suppress volatility in the short term, but the market's real concern isn't how much less debt is issued today, but whether there is a solution to long-term debt, inflation, and fiscal discipline.
If investors believe the problem is controllable, buybacks act as a stabilizer; if investors think it's just a painkiller, they will continue to demand higher compensation.
This is also why BTC and gold are bought together. On the surface, people are trading assets, but in their hearts, they are voting on the credit of the dollar and long-term interest rates.
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 You are absolutely right 👏 This wave is a "retail high-leverage long suicide," not a short squeeze
*1. $XRP liquidation data for this wave*
**Item** **Data** **Explanation**
**$XRP drop** | -16.45% | From $1.70 → $1.42
**Liquidation reason** 100% longs Just as you said, shorts didn’t add, they actually decreased
**Core issue** **High leverage** Failed to hold $1.50, all 20x-50x long positions got liquidated directly
$1.50 is the previous trapped position + psychological level. If it can’t break through, all will blow up. Same logic as $BTC $80K, $ETH $2,500
*2. Why say "such a drop is inevitable even in a bull market"*
1. *Price rose too fast*: BTC +30% in 5 days. Everyone FOMO chased the top
2. *Leverage too high*: Bull markets kill the most. 10x holders endure volatility, 50x holders can’t even handle a pinprick
3. *Liquidity trap*: CNY market, weekends, mornings. A deep pull triggers stop losses sliding 30% easily
Institutions buy spot at $72K, retail opens 50x longs at $1.70. Different goals, the latter dies
*3. Where to watch $XRP now?*
Structurally:
1. *First support: $1.20 - $1.25*
Previous platform + large chip zone. Holding this can push back to $1.50
2. *Lifeline: $1.00 round number$ETH Majhi retraced 2 million in 80 minutes, Ethereum breaks down from a high level, the weekend shorting script is set!
Family, good weekend. Let's analyze today's Ethereum script based on the latest on-chain news and market trends.
According to breaking news, the on-chain whale "Majhi" turned $152,000 into over $10 million within 3 days, but then experienced a sharp pullback of $2 million within 80 minutes. Currently, he still holds heavy long positions of 888.88 BTC and 19,100 ETH, with an unrealized loss of 470,000 on BTC and an unrealized profit of 2.17 million on ETH.
Even large funds are under huge selling pressure in the current market. Such heavy long positions are like a huge stone pressing down on the market, ironically becoming the main force's best excuse to shake out positions over the weekend.
Looking at the market, Ethereum has dropped sharply from a high of 2549, breaking through 2450 with a large bearish candle. The current rebound is very weak, firmly suppressed below 2450. The deep wick down to 2384 at noon found some support below but also exposed the heavy trapped positions above.
With US stock markets closed over the weekend and liquidity drying up, false breakouts are most likely. The major trend has turned weak, and our approach is simple: do not chase longs, look for short positions at high levels.
Focus on the resistance zone between 2450-2460. As long as a stagnation signal appears upon rebound here, it is an excellent position for us to set up short orders. Set stop loss above 2480, with initial targets at 2400, and if broken, then 2380.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $BTC Gold surges, three key events next Wednesday will influence positions
The US dollar index fell below 99, gold rose above $4600, Bitcoin's weekly gain exceeded 20%. The core logic of this round of the market is concern over the US dollar's credit. Dalio has also warned of long-term risks in US debt, making gold and BTC preferred hedges.
Three key events next Wednesday:
1. Implementation of geopolitical energy-related policies, risk aversion sentiment is expected to push gold to challenge 4700;
2. A hawkish speech at Jackson Hole will suppress risk assets, while a dovish signal will benefit BTC;
3. Rising PCE inflation data is a short-term negative for the crypto space but will strengthen the long-term logic of a weaker dollar.
Short-term volatility does not require easy exit; US fiscal issues are difficult to resolve quickly, and every pullback is an opportunity to position. The core focus next week is officials' speeches; maintain moderate positions, avoid full long or full short.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $BTC $ Four main reasons for the rapid midday drop
1. The previous rise relied on short squeeze, the upward foundation is fragile (core internal reason)
The big surge a few days ago was largely driven by forced buy orders from short liquidations, not by a large influx of new long-term funds. After the shorts were basically liquidated, the upward momentum disappeared; a large number of leveraged long positions accumulated at the high level, the market was already overbought, and any slight disturbance easily caused a pullback.
2. Cooling of positive expectations, policy expectations fall short
The previous rise was betting on the rapid passage of the US crypto bill (CLARITY Act). The market gradually realized: the bill faces strong resistance in negotiations, multiple groups oppose it, it is only a draft, and it is difficult to pass quickly in the short term. The premium that was previously speculated has started to fade. The positive outlook was only "hope," not reality, so funds began to take profits and close positions.
3. Leveraged long positions liquidated in a chain reaction, accelerating the decline (why the drop was so fast)
Price broke down through key support levels, triggering forced liquidations of many leveraged long positions; the exchange system automatically sold BTC, further pushing the price down, causing more long positions to liquidate, creating a downward stampede. A large number of longs were liquidated in a short time at midday, directly driving the intraday crash and price spikes.
Market characteristics: rises rely on short liquidations, falls rely on long liquidations, leverage multiplies volatility.
4. Macro risk sentiment disturbance
Geopolitical tensions, rising market inflation concerns, a slight rebound in US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar; global risk assets are collectively under pressure, and Bitcoin, as a high-risk speculative asset, is sold off first.
Simple summary
- Trigger: profit-taking by funds + cooling of positive policy expectations
- Amplifier: chain forced liquidations of high-leverage longs causing a rapid crash in a short time.
Need to watch
This kind of correction after a surge has two possible paths:
① After a quick drop, hold key support and then oscillate again;
② Expectations worsen further, leading to a deeper correction.
No one can predict the subsequent rise or fall; volatility is extremely high. #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温
The latest PMI surged to 56.0, hitting a four-year high. The service sector is incredibly strong. Just as everyone was relieved by cooling inflation, this data sparked heated debates in the market about the future interest rate path.
1. Will there be a rate hike in September?
I believe the probability of restarting rate hikes is very low. Maintaining the status quo or following the established pace is highly likely. A strong PMI indicates economic resilience, giving the Federal Reserve more confidence to keep rates higher for longer, but there is no need to force rate hikes just to suppress normal service sector demand.
2. How will the market move next?
In the short term, BTC will most likely experience wide-range oscillations. Expectations for rate cuts are suppressed, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remain firm, and the market is prone to sharp spikes and sweeps. However, as long as there is no hard economic landing, these pullbacks caused by a strong economy are normal shakeouts of positions and won’t create a deep, bottomless pit.
3. My trading approach
▶️ Firmly avoid high leverage
Volatility is too intense during data battles, and betting on direction is easily liquidated both ways.
▶️ Filter out macro noise
I only use PMI as a sentiment reference. The real factors deciding my major position entries and exits are unemployment rate and core inflation.
▶️ Gradually accumulate spot positions
If short-term irrational sell-offs occur due to rate hike panic, it’s actually a good opportunity to build spot positions gradually.
Macro data changes daily. Blindly predicting the Fed’s throttle and brakes often leads to being proven wrong. Managing position size and extending the time horizon is much more effective than guessing data every day.
DYOR Is this BTC rally really stable? 🚨
BTC surged from $65K all the way to $73K, looking very aggressive, but I’m actually more cautious.
This rally might be driven by three forces simultaneously: easing macro environment + large-scale short squeeze + the possibility of whales selling into the hype.
The U.S. Treasury’s long-term debt buybacks have also given some breathing room to risk assets, with the 30-year Treasury yield falling from 5.34% to 5.19%.
So, don’t get blinded by a big bullish candle.
A true bull market breakout requires sustained volume and capital confirmation, not just a wave of emotional euphoria. 👀📈
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
#DailyOrbit $BTC breaking above $77,500 is not the most noteworthy headline; what truly matters is whether this rally can be sustained by real capital. In the past few days, BTC has surged over 20% at one point, and short-term profit-taking could increase at any time. However, the latest data shows that the combined net inflow of US spot BTC and ETH ETFs in a single day was about $825.8M, indicating that behind this rally, it's not just short positions being undone—new funds are entering the market. Meanwhile, BTC ETF capital flows clearly rebounded during the week, with a weekly net inflow of about $1.6B, while ETH also surpassed $2,300, indicating that funds are not concentrated solely on BTC. Next, I focus more on three signals: 📌 whether ETF funds can continue to maintain net inflows 📌, whether spot trading volume can keep up with price increases 📌, and whether leverage is starting to accumulate excessively. If funds continue to drive prices rather than relying solely on short squeeze, the credibility of this breakout will significantly increase. $BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #PopMartEarningsWatch #Gold4600VsBonds #ETHWipes1.1BShortsA four-year high in the US August composite PMI complicates the easing narrative. Services outperformed expectations, while manufacturing missed but remained in expansion, suggesting growth has not stalled even as softer CPI, PPI and jobs data reduced the urgency of a September hike.
My read: resilience is supportive for earnings, but it also gives FOMC hawks more room to argue that demand could slow disinflation. That makes Treasury yields the key transmission channel for stocks, gold and BTC; strong growth may help risk assets only if rate expectations stay contained.
Not advice, just analysis.
#USPMIRevivesHikeBets