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During the US stock market holiday, the on-chain token of $MSTR showed a slight discount of 0.35%. The core conflict lies in the game between the $1.7 billion unrealized profit from the underlying BTC surpassing $71,000 and the weekend cross-market thin liquidity suppressing the willingness to chase prices. From the market facts, the token is currently priced at $118.83, lagging behind Friday's stock closing price of $119.25. The upper Bollinger Band at $116.57 has been breached, indicating that the technical bullish structure remains valid. In terms of driving factors, the recovery of crypto spot prices ranks first, as Bitcoin's rebound above the average holding price eases balance sheet pressure; insufficient on-chain market-making depth due to the US stock market holiday ranks second; and a slight correction in macro equity sentiment ranks last. In a bullish scenario, if crypto spot prices remain high and cross-market funds return before Monday's open, the discount will be quickly eliminated, triggering the token to break through the previous high resistance at $127.67. Breaking this resistance will confirm the valuation fully anchoring to the stock price. In a bearish scenario, if crypto spot prices face pressure and pull back at high levels, narrowing unrealized gains, and the token loses the moving average support formed by MA7 and MA25, it will trigger a retest of the upper Bollinger Band at $116.57, at which point the bullish rebound rhythm will face structural adjustment. In the valuation transmission mechanism, the RSI14 indicator remains in a strong zone at 68.8 and the MACD red bars are expanding, indicating that funds have not yet panicked and exited. However, the discount state reflects the market's cautious and watchful attitude toward the actual reflected price at Monday's open. The most important variable to observe in the next 24 hours is the speed of discount recovery between the on-chain token and the actual stock transaction price at the US market open on Monday. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大.22 Bitcoin Market Brief: Surge and Pullback, Beware of Correction Risks Amid the Rally Folks, does today's market feel like a roller coaster ride? 😅 This morning, Bitcoin surged past the $78,000 mark, reaching a high of $79,555, nearly hitting the $80,000 milestone. In the afternoon, it slightly pulled back, with the price around $76,600 as of 6 PM. Over the past 24 hours, it still gained over 2%, and the weekly cumulative increase exceeded 24%, marking the strongest weekly performance since March 2023. The driving logic behind this rally is clear: The U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of long-term bond repurchase operations combined with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, weakening the dollar and directly boosting risk asset valuations. Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding $12 billion this year, with institutional funds continuously supporting the market. Coupled with recent positive meetings between U.S. senior officials and crypto industry executives, this has directly fueled the bulls' advance. However, risks are also clearly visible: Over the past 24 hours, more than 189,000 liquidations occurred across the network, totaling $1.459 billion, with shorts almost entirely wiped out. The current RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, perpetual contract funding rates have risen to multi-month highs, and high-leverage positions are overcrowded, which could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations and a correction at any time. Reminder to everyone: don't blindly chase the highs. Conservative traders might consider waiting for the price to pull back and stabilize around the $71,000-$72,000 support level before making decisions. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so never go full leverage betting on direction. The craziest thing this week is Bitcoin $BTC is now over 77,000, reaching a high of 79,319 within 24 hours, brushing close to 80,000 Spot ETFs have had a net inflow of 1.6 billion USD over four days On August 20 alone, BTC ETFs saw an inflow of 606 million, ETH ETFs 221 million These numbers are quite shocking Retail investors chasing highs usually cause a volume spike one day and a drop the next But four consecutive days of increasing inflows suggest institutions are accumulating Combined with the Treasury doubling down on long bond buybacks and the dollar index dropping 0.9% on the weekly chart Money is bypassing bonds and flowing into gold and Bitcoin, which makes sense logically Looking back, Bitcoin's historical high was 126,080 in October 2025 Now it's under 80,000, still 38% below the previous high; this is a strong rebound in a bear market, not a new high rally. Watch if ETF net inflows stop; if they continue, institutions are still buying, if they stop, retail investors (like me) are taking the risk During the weekend break when the US stock market was closed, the $MSTR on-chain token slightly declined and showed a mild discount, contrasting with the over 6% rise in the underlying stock on Friday, creating a quiet temperature difference. The token price hovered around $118.83, maintaining a 0.35% discount compared to the stock's closing price of $119.25, with the resistance at the high point of $127.67 still clearly defined. The underlying asset Bitcoin rebounded above the average holding cost, pushing MicroStrategy's holdings of over 840,000 coins back to an unrealized profit of about $1.7 billion, temporarily easing pressure on the balance sheet. The spot rebound provided book support for the US stock-linked asset, while the thin cross-market liquidity during the US market closure suppressed the willingness to chase prices, causing a slight lag between the two price ends. If Bitcoin holds the valuation bottom line before the stock market opens on Monday, the token side is expected to eliminate the discount with the return of external liquidity and then test the $127 resistance level. If the crypto spot market faces pressure at high levels leading to a narrowing of unrealized book profits, once the token loses the moving average support, the bullish rebound rhythm will face correction. The current strong bias heavily depends on the net asset elasticity provided by Bitcoin spot; as long as the US stock-linked asset does not experience a sentiment collapse, the valuation logic will continue to revolve around holding fluctuations. The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is the speed of discount recovery between the on-chain token and the actual US stock trading price when the stock opens on Monday. #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战BTC accelerated again in a single day, but the derivatives market quietly changed its expression. Have you noticed that the price is rising, yet many people are actually more hesitant to move? Here's a set of numbers I observed while monitoring the market—not predictions, but structural changes currently happening: - Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates have turned positive again and are rising faster than the price, indicating leveraged longs are returning. - Ethereum futures basis is also widening, but the spread with BTC has not expanded in sync, showing a clearly more cautious attitude toward ETH funding. - Option skew (25 delta risk reversal) still leans toward bearish protection, indicating professional accounts continue buying insurance amid the rally. - Altcoins' perpetual contract open interest is increasing, but volume growth is lagging, suggesting limited new capital, with more turnover among existing holdings. Putting these signals together, my understanding is: the market is not trading on "bull market confirmation" but rather the continuation of a "short squeeze" scenario. The underlying logic of BTC's rally resembles shorts being forced to cover passively combined with leveraged longs actively adding positions; these two forces together push the price up quickly and steeply. However, the hedging demand in the derivatives market is rising simultaneously, indicating smart money does not see this as a smooth one-way street. The secondary effect is that capital preference is actually contracting, not expanding. BTC's strength is drawing away already scarce active liquidity; although altcoins are rising alongside, their internal rhythm is chaotic. Several small-cap positions I hold started to turn profitable after $OFC broke even.Bitcoin latest pullback was enough to shake the entire crypto market. After the explosive rally that pushed $BTC toward the $79K area the market suddenly faced heavy selling pressure dragging $ETH $SOL $XRP and numerous altcoins lower. But the important question is not simply Why did $BTC dump? The bigger question is whether this was a normal reset after an aggressive rally or the beginning of a deeper correction. ◆ The Rally Had Already Become Extremely Extended $BTC had gained roughly 23% in oETH broke below 2410, my short position's floating profit surged to 3032U, but I haven't exited yet Just took a look at the market, ETH broke below 2410. My short position's floating profit surged to 3032U, 433%. Short opened at 2,518, 100x leverage, held for several days. What happened during this process? · Floating profit dropped from 2800 to 700 · Then pulled back from 700 to 3000 Throughout the entire process, I did only one thing: nothing. No chasing longs, no cutting losses, no adding positions, no closing positions. Stop loss at 2,580, no move unless broken. This drop confirmed my previous judgment — this rally was driven by derivatives, not real spot money buying. Futures trading volume dropped from 44.8 billion to 13.3 billion, a 70% drop, and I knew: once sentiment recedes, it goes down as it went up. Today is just the beginning. I still say: as long as 2,580 is not broken, the short position stays. $ETH The core conclusion of today's market is: **Risk appetite has somewhat recovered in the short term, but it is far from a time of full optimism.** Overnight, all three major U.S. stock indices rebounded, BTC once surged close to $80,000, becoming one of the strongest performing risk assets; however, at the same time, U.S. Treasury yields rose again, Brent crude oil remained near $94, and the pressure from U.S. fiscal and Middle East situations has not truly disappeared. Today also happens to be Saturday, with traditional markets closed, so the most worth watching over the weekend is whether BTC can maintain its strength and whether there are any new sudden developments in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situations. 1. What happened overnight? 1. U.S. stocks ended a continuous adjustment, but the weekly chart still shows clear weakness. Facts: On Friday, all three major U.S. stock indices collectively rebounded. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.98%, closing at 53,277.01; the S&P 500 rose 0.43%, closing at 7,674.37; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.44%, closing at 26,180.46. However, looking at the entire week, the market has not truly shaken off pressure. The S&P 500 fell 1.43% for the week; the Nasdaq fell 2.05%; the Dow Jones fell 0.85%. Both the S&P and Nasdaq ended their previous three-week winning streak. Market reaction: Friday's trading was noticeably more stable than the previous days, with materials, healthcare, and financial sectors leading gains, while crypto-related stocks performed especially strongly. Robinhood rose 13.7%, Coinbase rose 8.2%, Strategy upIn mid-July 2026, Movement Labs (MVMT Labs) officially filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The news dealt a heavy blow to market sentiment, laying bare unsustainable financial strain and internal disputes. However, a corporate bankruptcy filing does not mean the $MOVE token instantly vanishes from exchanges. As long as trading pairs remain active and smart contracts execute on-chain, this structural disconnect creates a breeding ground for price manipulation. Market Makers and the Short Don't treat the bull market like a playback machine The biggest trap in this market cycle is forcing historical patterns onto a new script. In the past, when BTC rose, ETH followed, altcoins soared, and Meme coins surged wildly. But this time, capital is extremely selective—BTC reaching 70,000 relies on ETFs, regulatory clarity, and the digital gold narrative, all three supporting simultaneously. Not just any coin can benefit from this logic. The order of market observation must be clear: Step one: Can BTC turn the area above 70,000 into a support base? This is the master switch for overall market risk appetite. Step two: Does ETH/BTC strengthen? The real baton-passing signal is not ETH rising, but ETH holding up during BTC's pullback—this indicates incremental funds independent of BTC are providing support. Step three: Then it's the turn of high-volatility sectors. The sequence is: ETH DeFi TVL rises first → competing chains follow → Meme coins finish last. Many rush to chase the most exciting sectors first, which often ends up being the last leg. Three practical filters: 1. When BTC is consolidating, watch stablecoin net inflows. Continuous USDC inflows into the Ethereum mainnet are a precursor to capital preparing to spread. 2. During BTC pullbacks, compare the drop magnitude. ETH falling less than BTC confirms the true "second leg." 3. The altcoin season is not "inevitable" but a "selection." Only sectors with independent narratives (RWA, Restaking) qualify to absorb overflow capital. If the main line isn't stable, all branches are traps. Don't treat the bull market like a playback machine; the script has changed. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ The strongest evidence for multiple IPs taking over: Star People reached 2.65 billion in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 580.6%, rising to the second largest IP (company interim report). A year ago, it was just a small to medium IP; this is a breakthrough explosion, not a PPT. It proves that POPMART can quickly push new IPs to the top, and the ability to replicate hits is more valuable than a single hit. More concrete details about the hit: Wang Ning revealed at the earnings call that Star People's "Animal Farm" sold out immediately at 10 PM on August 20; the hidden edition on Dewu was speculated up to 1799 yuan, nearly 14 times the initial price of 129 yuan (Sina Finance). Sold out immediately + secondary market premium is exactly a replay of Labubu's rise. Plush form + social media viral spread are key to Star People's rapid popularity. Whether the high growth on a low base can continue needs to be verified next quarter, but "the IP factory can produce another hit" has been confirmed. Star People is not a replacement for LABUBU but a symbol proving POPMART's ability to replicate hits. This means the valuation can shift from a single IP cyclical stock to a platform-type IP company. The risk lies in overly high sentiment premium: hidden edition speculation and social media hype will amplify short-term expectations. If growth slows next quarter, stock price volatility will be significant. Star People is a hope, but don't idolize it; giving it two quarters for verification is more reasonable (market page 09992.HK). $POPMART How far can the market go after Bitcoin's short squeeze? Three signals are providing the answer. Over the past six weeks, Bitcoin has been stuck oscillating repeatedly between $62,000 and $66,900. The price has lacked direction for a long time, market sentiment has continued to cool, and the fear and greed index once approached extreme fear. More importantly, short positions in the derivatives market have been accumulating continuously, with perpetual contract funding rates remaining negative for a long time, and more and more traders starting to bet on Bitcoin's continued decline. But the market often does not follow the majority's expectations. On the evening of August 19, Bitcoin suddenly surged rapidly from around $64,000, breaking through multiple key resistance levels in a short time. So far, the price has reached as high as around $75,700. Along with the sharp price increase, the leveraged market also experienced intense liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the crypto market's liquidation amount reached about $3.3 billion, with short liquidations accounting for about $3.07 billion, affecting nearly 200,000 people. The direct driver of this rally is obvious: after a crowded short position, a large-scale short squeeze occurred, forced liquidations created passive buying, which further pushed the price up, ultimately forming a typical "rise—liquidation—rise again" cycle. But what really deserves attention is not how fierce this short squeeze was, but whether there is enough new capital to take over after the squeeze ends. My judgment is: the short squeeze is just a spark, policy provides the catalyst, and ETF funds will determine whether this rally can continue to burn. Signal 1: Spot ETFs continuously receive capital inflows. This rally is different from previous ones that relied solely on leverage to drive it.1494年，一位意大利修道士出版了一本书，书名叫《算术、几何、比与比例概要》。听起来就让人犯困，对吧？但这本无聊到极点的书里，藏着改变人类文明进程的密码——复式记账法。从此，商人不再靠记忆做生意，每一笔账都有了不可篡改的双向记录。五百年后回头看，现代资本主义的地基，就是这本没人愿意读完的书打下的。 历史总是重复同一个真相：真正改变世界的力量，往往长着一张最无趣的脸。 复式记账法之于商业文明，互联网之于信息传播，集装箱之于全球化贸易——它们都不是靠"性感"赢的。它们赢在：让复杂的事情变得可靠，让昂贵的操作变得廉价，让少数人的特权变成多数人的日常。 2026年的以太坊，正在走同一条路。它不再靠价格叙事和概念炒作吸引眼球，而是用一套极其"无趣"的系统设计，悄悄变成了全球数字金融的基础设施。 当下的以太坊：无趣到让你忽略它有多强 先看一组最新的链上数据：以太坊DeFi总锁仓量超过990亿美元，是排名第二的公链的九倍以上；2025年全年稳定币在以太坊上结算的规模达到18.8万亿美元；超过30%的ETH供应被质押；已部署智能合约数量超过8800万个，日交易峰值达174万笔。 这些数字背后，没有一条In recent days, sentiment in the crypto community has clearly shifted. Not long ago, there was debate about "when the bear market will end," but now the market is lively again. Bitcoin has climbed back above $70,000 and at one point approached $80,000; Mainstream assets like Ethereum and XRP also showed a clear rebound, with risk appetite in the entire crypto market heating up rapidly. The latest market reports show that Bitcoin surged more than 20% at one point this week, marking a very strong weekly performance in recent years. So the question arises: is this just an ordinary rebound, or is a new bull market just beginning? My judgment is: it's still too early to talk about a "full start of the bull market," but the market does have some positive signals worth noting. For ordinary investors, rather than rushing to guess the top and bottom, it's better to first understand what is really happening in the market before considering how to position themselves. 1. What is the reason behind this round of price increases? First, we need to acknowledge that this rally is not simply emotional hype. There are at least several clear driving factors behind Bitcoin's recent rise. First, institutional funds are flowing back again. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently seen significant capital inflows. Data shows that from Monday to Thursday alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $1.6 billion, with about $606 million in single-day inflows on Thursday, one of the highest levels since May. This is clearly different from the market driven by retail investors in the past. ETF funds mean that the traditional financial system is entering the crypto asset market in a more compliant manner. If the ETF can do it later,Chain liquidations, active leveraged funds, accelerating $BTC rise? This week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of about 14,700 $BTC, the second highest since October 2025. Since August, the cumulative inflow is about 21,958 $BTC, indicating spot demand is indeed warming up. At the same time, the BTC inter-exchange flow pulse indicator has turned bullish. More BTC is flowing into derivatives platforms, representing renewed activity of leveraged funds. Spot buying supports the bottom, while leverage amplifies the speed of the rise. But leverage is always a double-edged sword. Around 13:10 today, BTC, ETH, and various altcoins experienced brief flash crashes. If a unified account is loaded with high-leverage long positions, a sudden flash crash in one coin can drag down the margin and trigger a chain of forced liquidations in other positions. So this rebound has more capital support than before, but it is also more fragile. Continuous ETF inflows are good news, but rapid leverage heating up is not always better. The subsequent market depends on whether ETF inflows can continue, and whether funding rates and open interest become overheated. Spot demand must continue to take over for the market to sustain; if only leverage chases the rally, a single flash crash could wipe out all profits. High-leverage altcoin positions should at least be isolated from each other; in extreme conditions, liquidating one is better than losing the entire account. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $BTC surged from a short squeeze to a crash dump in just 48 hours: a two-way squeeze between bulls and bears, with no one escaping unscathed This rapid plunge perfectly confirms my previous judgment: in a high-leverage market, both bulls and bears are exposed naked; just two days ago, the bears were wiped out, and today the bulls chasing highs are collectively buried. Major coins like ETH were dragged down along with it. Essentially, this is the leverage backlash plus sentiment reversal after a sharp rally—no unexpected black swan event. 1. Why did BTC suddenly crash: from short squeeze to long liquidation, all it took was one bearish candle 1. Core internal cause: profit-taking + leverage liquidation, bulls crushed themselves In the previous 3 days, the price rose from 64,000 to nearly 80,000, with over 15% gains inflated by a large number of short liquidations pushing the price up, not purely supported by real buy orders. When the price hit the 80,000 mark, the regulatory optimism had already been partially priced in, with no new incremental funds stepping in. Institutions and whales who bought at lower levels started taking profits and selling, and the first wave of selling pressure broke short-term support. The most fatal factor was retail traders chasing highs with leveraged long positions. The recent short squeeze created the illusion of "only up, no down," causing countless traders to enter and add leverage in the 75,000-79,000 range, resulting in extremely crowded long positions. Once the price turned slightly, high-leverage longs were forcibly liquidated, and the passive selling pushed the price even lower, triggering a cascading liquidation stampede. Data shows that within the most intense 1-hour crash, $523 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with longs accounting for $448 million, over 85%—a complete reversal from the previous day's short liquidations which accounted for 80%, marking a classic long-liquidation scenario. 2. External trigger: rising geopolitical risks, collective pressure on risk assets Tensions between the US and Iran have raised global risk aversion, with market concerns that inflation rebound will delay the Fed's rate cut schedule. Equities, commodities, and other risk assets have simultaneously corrected. Crypto, as the most volatile risk asset, naturally fell the hardest, pouring cold water on already fragile bullish sentiment. 2. Why did ETH and all major coins crash simultaneously, and even more severely? This is a long-standing pattern in crypto markets, almost always replayed during BTC crashes, with little short-term fundamental correlation to the coins themselves: - Beta amplification effect: Most major coins have a price elasticity greater than 1 relative to BTC. When BTC rises, they rally even more on market sentiment; when BTC falls, their declines are amplified in sync. This rally was driven entirely by BTC’s regulatory and macro factors, with no independent positive catalysts for ETH, so naturally ETH had no resistance during the drop. - Liquidity reverse drain: In a downtrend, capital prioritizes liquidity preservation. BTC is the strongest asset in terms of market absorption and lowest slippage for liquidation. Large holders wanting to raise cash or reduce positions won’t dump BTC first and trap themselves; they sell ETH, SOL, and other less liquid major coins first. Concentrated selling pressure causes these coins to fall more than BTC. - Retail leverage concentration: Contract participants in major coins are mostly retail and speculative traders, who generally use more aggressive leverage than the BTC market. Panic triggers larger relative long liquidations by market cap in major coins, intensifying the stampede effect and accelerating the decline. 3. Essentially, it’s a two-way emotional squeeze market From a long-term perspective, the main themes of regulatory clarity and improved USD liquidity expectations remain intact. This drop is more like a technical pullback after consecutive sharp rallies, which also cleans out the leveraged longs chasing highs. But it’s extremely brutal for high-leverage players: two days ago, shorts were liquidated; unwilling to accept defeat, they flipped to longs chasing highs, only to be liquidated again today. In just two or three days, both bulls and bears are slaughtered, with principal capital sharply reduced. The same principle applies: at this volatility level, holding spot at most means floating profit drawdown; once high leverage is involved, whether long or short, there will always be a candle that clears you out. # Risk warning: This article is for market logic analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please assess risks rationally and make decisions cautiously.BTC Investment Log Issue 6 | August 22, 2026 Weekly Report Reasons for the Rise, Cycle Position, and Bottom Range I. Core Conclusions for This Week ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ BTC rebounded strongly this week to around $78,000, up about 32% from the previous low of around $59,000. Core judgment: BTC is moving from "bottom building" into a "bottom rebound→ early confirmation phase for a new cycle, but it cannot yet confirm that a new major bull market has fully started. II. Five main reasons for this round of price increases 1. Improved liquidity expectations: US financial conditions marginally eased, benefiting risk assets. 2. Renewed ETF capital inflows: Institutional buying has clearly recovered, which is the most important fundamental factor for this round of gains. 3. Concentrated Short Closing: After breaking through a key level, short stop losses further drive the price upward. 4. Improved expectations for U.S. crypto regulation: The policy environment for institutional market entry continues to improve. 5. Market sentiment reversal: Fear quickly turns to greed, and funds begin to chase gains. Conclusion: This rally is not simply speculation by retail investors, but is jointly driven by "institutional funds + liquidity + short covering + sentiment reversal." 3. V4.0 Core Indicators Indicators Current Judgment BTC price ≈$78,000 is ≈-38% from the 2025 high. The 200-week moving average ≈ $64,000, has regained the MVRV ≈ 1.3–1.4, not yet overvalued AHR999 ≈0.51, has broken out of the bottom-fishing zone Fear and Greed ≈78, short-term hot SOPR ≈1.Is this rally in Bitcoin a bull comeback or a bull trap? Don't rush to go all in. Bitcoin has surged from 64,000 to 78,000 in three days, with 3.3 billion liquidated in 24 hours, 90% of which were shorts. Some on social media are already calling it a "new bull market," but I'll pour cold water on that. This rise isn't just pure sentiment; there are real factors: the US Treasury is buying back bonds to inject liquidity, large amounts of real money are flowing into ETFs, and shorts are too crowded above 68,000, causing a direct short squeeze that keeps pushing prices higher. But here's the problem: short covering is a one-time buy; once it's done, it's gone, and someone has to take over afterward. Single-day ETF inflows don't count; we need to see continuous weekly inflows. The macro environment is only temporarily loose; the Fed hasn't truly cut rates yet. Price breaking above the 200-day moving average doesn't guarantee stability; there are many false breakouts. The daily RSI is already overbought, and this slope can't continue indefinitely. Chasing this rally short-term means catching the falling knife. Don't chase highs in the short term. The 80,000-82,000 range above is strong resistance with many trapped longs; the 70,000-72,000 range below is critical—hold that before talking about higher prices. If it falls below 69,000, this rally is just a big rebound, not the start of a bull market. A true bull market requires a pullback that doesn't break support + continuous ETF inflows + a real Fed pivot, none of which are fully confirmed now. Those calling for a bull market now might be the same people who called for zero two months ago. The market can go up or come back down. Don't let FOMO push you to leverage up; the biggest losers in bull markets are those chasing highs with leverage. The signals are there but not conclusive; wait for a pullback and save your ammo. #Bitcoin breaks $70,000 for the first time in two months #Bitcoin hits 2023 $BTC highs 레버리지 복리 챌린지의 최대 리스크는 방향이 아니라 포지션 유지 시간이다. 숫자가 100에서 1134로 늘어나는 동안, 실제 노출은 그대로였을까? 원문은 100만 원대 자본으로 1134만 원대까지 계정을 키운 복리 챌린지 기록이다. 전략의 핵심은 ETH 대표 밈코인 PEPE가 바닥권에 머물 때, Squirrel의 미실현 이익을 활용해 PEPE 롱 포지션을 추가로 진입했다는 점이다. 이후 PEPE 상승으로 전체 계정이 목표치에 접근한 흐름이다. 이 구조는 단순한 현물 매수가 아니라, 기존 포지션의 미실현 이익을 신규 증거금으로 재투입하는 복리 레버리지 과정이다. 시장이 상승 추세를 유지하는 동안에는 수익이 기하급수적으로 늘지만, 반대 방향으로 한 번만 크게 흔들려도 증거금 비율이 급격히 나빠진다. - 파생 포지셔닝 관점에서 보면, 이 전략은 사실상 ETH 생태계 밈코인에 대한 방향성 베팅이자 동시에 숏 스퀴즈 경로에 대한 우회적 노출이다. - PEPE는 ETH 대비 베타가 높은 자산이#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ On-chain whale addresses have already stopped large-scale continuous accumulation, and the incremental buying power has significantly weakened. Currently, the market mainly relies on ETF funds and retail investors to take over. Relying only on these two types of funds makes it difficult to support the continuous creation of new highs in the coin price. Without new large-scale main funds entering the market, upward momentum will become arduous. $BTC Today, let's briefly discuss the Genius Act. The two waves of growth have shown everyone signals of a bull market rebound; why not mention the Genius Act? Naturally, there are personal views on this. The Genius Act has little to do with the crypto circle itself and is mainly a pathway for stablecoins. It can even be said to be a targeted act, with little correlation to the current rise. Although the timing of the growth coincides closely with the passing of the act, it is not considered a positive signal. The previous bottom for Bitcoin was around 62200, and in just one week, it reached a high of 75767, an extremely considerable increase. What is the connection between these two? The essence of the Genius Act is stablecoins, not crypto tokens, and its targets are very clear: in the short term, Tether company; in the long term, paving the way for US dollar hegemony. The cryptocurrencies with the largest growth this time are also related to stablecoin linkages, such as Ethereum, SOL, XRP, DOGE, and even Bitcoin. But relying solely on this news to start a bull market is unrealistic; have you ever thought about whether stablecoins themselves conflict with crypto tokens? It is believed that these two share a common market, which means an inherent conflict of interest. What Trump wants to do is nothing more than replace the US dollar with stablecoins, returning currency pricing power to the president himself, so the positioning of crypto tokens becomes extremely awkward. It can be said that the larger the stablecoin market, the smaller the market left for crypto tokens; the two are competitors in the same industry. So, what is the way out for these tokens? The current understanding is the linkage itself, which can serve as a bridge between stablecoins and US stocks or other values. For example, what BN is doingIn the morning, people shouted "bulls back in," and by the afternoon, they were calling blockchain a scam 😅 In the past 4 hours, the entire network liquidated $639 million, with long positions at $504 million, accounting for 78.9%. But if you look at the 24-hour window, shorts actually liquidated more, $1.01 billion versus $791 million. Those who chased shorts in the past two days and those chasing longs today are being taken out in turns. Leverage is lively, but the spot market deserves a closer look. ETF inflows look pretty good, but when broken down, something seems off. On August 20, the entire market had a net inflow of $606 million, the largest day since May 5. Among that, BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $503 million, while all other funds combined barely exceeded $100 million. Looking back at other big inflow days this year, BlackRock usually accounts for 45% to 63%. On May 1 it was 45%, May 4 was 63%, and the day before, August 19, was only 55%. The 83% is an outlier. So strictly speaking, this isn't institutions scrambling to accumulate; it's one institution scrambling. The problem with this kind of buying is that it's not diversified. If BlackRock stops buying one day, that $500 million disappears immediately, and others can't make up that volume. By the way, a pitfall: On Farside's table, the total for August 21 is only $68.2 million, which looks like buying has cooled off, but the IBIT cell shows a dash, meaning the data hasn't been reported yet, not zero. Whether they bought in the past two days or not, we have to wait for that cell to be filled to know. Any conclusions now are just guesses. FalconX and Ethena have established a $1 billion secured credit facility, channeling USDe-backed assets into overcollateralized institutional loans through an SPV, with collateral held by qualified custodians. Stablecoin yields are expanding from basis trading to credit assets, but custody, borrower quality, and transparency will become new risk factors. #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ Solana's recent speed upgrade is not simply about requiring nodes to "run faster," but involves a complete overhaul of the consensus mechanism. The node threshold has not risen; rather, it is undergoing structural reconstruction — the technical threshold is increasing, while the economic threshold is decreasing. On August 21, Solana mainnet officially reduced block production time from 400 milliseconds to 350 milliseconds. This is just the beginning, with the ultimate goal being 200 milliseconds. Validators face two opposing forces simultaneously. The technical threshold is indeed rising: production environment validators now require 24-core CPUs, 384-512GB of memory, and 10Gbps network. At the same time, BLS key registration has become mandatory; those who have not registered since July 20 have directly lost voting rights and staking rewards. However, the economic threshold is significantly lowering. After the Alpenglow upgrade, the minimum profitable staking threshold is expected to drop sharply from about 4,850 SOL to about 450 SOL. Marinade Labs CEO also confirmed that the validator admission threshold will be lowered after the upgrade. So the conclusion is clear: Alpenglow is not about driving away small nodes; it is about using higher technical standards to filter operators while lowering the economic threshold to allow more people to qualify for participation. The VAT system initially sets the maximum number of validator nodes at 2,000 — the threshold is lowered, but the number of entry slots is limited. For retail users, the technical threshold to run a node themselves is higher, but the threshold to participate through staking pools is actually lower. This Rally Might Be a Trap 🚨 BTC’s move from $65K to $73K looks explosive—but I’m not convinced it’s a clean bull breakout. This rally may be powered by three things at once: macro relief, a massive short squeeze, and whales potentially using the hype to unload. The Treasury’s long-term debt buyback helped push the 30Y yield from 5.34% to 5.19%, giving risk assets room to breathe$BTC #Gold4600VsBonds #BTC77KFlowTest Gold has surged wildly again. On August 21, international spot gold broke through $4600/oz, reaching a high close to $4640, with a weekly increase of over 4%, marking the third consecutive week of gains. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchase operations, the dollar weakened, and market concerns about U.S. fiscal and long-term debt resurfaced. On the surface, this appears to be a typical gold rally. But if you look at gold and U.S. Treasuries together, a more noteworthy change emerges: In the past, during times of risk, capital usually first bought U.S. Treasuries; now, more and more capital is choosing gold. What does this mean? The real challenge gold poses may not be to Treasury yields, but to the status of U.S. Treasuries as the world's core safe-haven asset. 1. Why is gold rising while U.S. Treasuries have become the market's focus? Over the past decades, the global financial market has formed a very stable logic: When the economy is weak, buy U.S. Treasuries. When war breaks out, buy U.S. Treasuries. When the stock market crashes, buy U.S. Treasuries. When the market panics, capital flows into U.S. government bonds. The reason is simple. U.S. Treasuries are backed by the credit of the U.S. government, and the dollar is the world's primary reserve currency. Therefore, U.S. Treasuries have long played a very important role: a "safe harbor" for global capital. But now a problem has arisen. The scale of U.S. government debt continues to expand, long-term fiscal deficits persist, and the market is increasingly concerned about one question: If U.S. long-term debt keeps increasing, who will take on so many Treasuries in the future? This is the real logic behind the gold rally. 2. The most noteworthyAfter $BTC surged to 78,000, the first real test has arrived. Yesterday it peaked near 78,800, but today it didn’t break through 80,000 directly; instead, it started to pull back. Many people panic when they see a correction. But I actually think the most important thing now isn’t how much it has dropped, but whether it can hold around 75,000. This round of rally is supported by ETF capital inflows and liquidity expectations brought by the US Treasury’s expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases; the fundamentals are not just pulled up out of thin air. So we can’t simply interpret this as a top. If BTC quickly recovers after testing around 75,000, it indicates healthy high-level turnover, and there is still a chance to challenge 80,000 again. But if 75,000 is lost and the rebound lacks volume, then be cautious that this surge is entering a profit-taking phase. 80,000 is not the most critical number; 75,000 is. Hold that level, and remain bullish. If it breaks below, then we talk about risks again. #Samsung shareholder returns implemented, up to about $80 billion I am Cige. Samsung has launched the largest shareholder return plan in the history of Korean companies. Between 90 trillion and 110 trillion KRW, equivalent to $65 billion to $80 billion, continuing the policy of using 50% of cumulative free cash flow from 2024 to 2026 for shareholder returns. SK Hynix previously announced a buyback and cancellation plan of about 40 trillion KRW. Both Korean memory giants are accelerating the return of cash flow brought by AI prosperity to shareholders. Samsung and SK Hynix are walking a tightrope between massive capital expenditures and huge shareholder returns. The total investment in the two new wafer fabs in Yongin and Cheongju is about 54.3 trillion KRW, and HBM and advanced process capacity expansions have not stopped. Expanding production on one hand and paying dividends on the other, being able to sustain both indicates that the cash flow brought by AI is indeed undergoing a qualitative change. However, the market will continue to observe whether the huge returns will compress the space for the next round of expansion and technology investment. Impact on BTC: The large-scale shareholder returns by memory giants indirectly verify the sustainability of AI infrastructure capital expenditures. The consumption of fiat credit is still accelerating, and the narrative of non-sovereign assets has not been weakened. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $DOGE $CORE If even one person had paid attention to my update yesterday about the project team dumping 50 million core tokens, the liquidation wouldn't have happened. Currently, the insider trading dumped a little over half around 12 o'clock, with half still remaining. Many stubbornly say the whole crypto market is down today. Yes, Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped about 1%, but core dropped 35%. This shows the lack of liquidity in core. The project team has no funds to support the price. Even the staked Bitcoin has always been staked by the project team themselves to earn core for dumping. Initially, Bitcoin believers came to stake core, but so far, the staked Bitcoin cannot be redeemed and is permanently locked on the chain. Many can observe that the staked Bitcoin basically hasn't moved, sometimes a few more, sometimes a few less. Those on Twitter can see that the core community believers' anger towards core has reached its peak. Today, just 18 million in one minute can dump the price by 35%. What I want to say is that the project team is preparing to dump 50 million tokens, using the market to unload and purely cut retail investors as leeks.$FUTU This Q2 financial report focuses not only on revenue growth but also on several high-frequency operating indicators: accounts, customer assets, transaction volume, and financing balances, all rising simultaneously. For internet brokerages, this means this quarter's growth is not driven by a single business but rather by a combined increase in client scale and trading activity. Let's look at core data: Q2 total revenue was HKD 7.2 billion, up 35.6% year-on-year; gross profit was HKD 6.215 billion, up 33.9% year-on-year; Operating profit was HKD 4.464 billion, up 33.5% year-on-year. Net profit was HKD 3.642 billion, up 41.6% year-on-year; On a Non-GAAP basis, adjusted net profit was HKD 3.725 billion, up 40.1% year-on-year. Basic earnings per ADS were HKD 26.32, up from HKD 18.48 in the same period last year. The income structure is still supported by both trading and interest. Brokerage commission and fee income was HKD 3.361 billion, up 30.3% year-on-year; Interest income was HKD 3.124 billion, up 36.5% year-on-year; Other income was HKD 716 million, up 61.2% year-on-year. This structure shows that this quarter's performance benefited not only from increased transaction volume but also from increased income related to financing and cash management, rather than relying solely on commission elasticity from unilateral market increases. Accounts and customer assets continued to expand. At the end of the period, the number of paying accounts reached 3.8427 million, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%; Securities accounts numbered 6.6396 million, a year-on-year increase of 26.$HEMI has shown a downward probe signal; what about the subsequent trend? HEMI has surged rapidly this time, but I actually do not recommend chasing the rally. First, the gains have clearly overextended short-term sentiment. In the past 7 days, HEMI once rose over 70%, but it has now noticeably pulled back from the highs, indicating that profit-taking has begun at the top. Second, the circulating supply is too small, and there is significant unlocking pressure ahead. HEMI's total supply is 10 billion tokens, with less than 1 billion currently circulating. On August 29, about 340 million tokens will be unlocked, equivalent to roughly 15% of the current market cap, which is a clear pressure on the price. Third, although the project itself has a BTC+ETH dual-ecosystem narrative, a good narrative does not necessarily mean the token price will rise. In June this year, Hemi experienced a mainnet failure, so the project's fundamentals and network stability still need further verification. HEMI is basically confirmed to be following the mainstream trend, so it is not suitable to blindly chase the highs in the short term. If it continues to surge but the capital does not keep up, I prefer to wait for a pullback; especially as unlocking approaches, selling pressure may increase further. With the rapid rise, small circulating supply, and upcoming unlocking, I am bearish in the short term. I would rather wait for a pullback confirmation than chase at the highs. #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 The premium on US stock AI infrastructure is resonating across markets with crypto computing power assets. The top family office disclosed in its 13F filing that it built a position of 4.075 million shares of $BTDR at a cost of $15.89 in Q2, while Jane Street simultaneously increased its holdings to 12.933 million shares, showing a capital allocation preference for mining-transformed HPC computing power. As the US tech sector maintains risk appetite and its over $2 billion reserve orders accelerate delivery, a computing power revaluation rally will unfold. If high US dollar interest rates suppress high-beta valuations in US stocks or BTC prices sharply retrace, this linkage scenario will fail. #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Samsung's $80 Billion Shareholder Return Implemented: Chip Giant Is Saying Goodbye to Blind Overexpansion Samsung Electronics has officially announced a shareholder return plan of up to $80 billion, including cash dividends, buybacks, and cancellations. Along with SK Hynix's previous large-scale buybacks, chip giants are undergoing a profound strategic shift. The semiconductor industry's biggest headache in the past was high capital expenditure and cyclical overcompetition. During boom periods, companies would frantically build factories and buy equipment, but when downturns hit, massive depreciation would quickly eat up all profits. However, this AI storage supercycle breaks the old cycle. The massive free cash flow generated by HBM high-bandwidth memory and high-end server storage allows giants to avoid low-end price wars and instead learn from leading US tech stocks by directly boosting earnings per share (EPS) through buybacks and cancellations, systematically correcting the "Korean discount" phenomenon. The logic for evaluating chip stocks has upgraded: the core focus is no longer just on how fast capacity expands, but whether the company can maintain a healthy balance between advanced process R&D and cash flow returns to shareholders. Only with an HBM technology moat and solid buyback support can companies weather the cyclical bull and bear markets. Facing large-scale buybacks in chip stocks, do you value more the underpinning value of dividends and cancellations, or the growth potential of future advanced processes? --- The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 Since July 19, more than 12,500 coins have been stuffed into Binance, cashing out 850 million. You could say he was running from the top, but his movements were especially calm, shipping in batches, clearly not in a hurry. This selling method is the most sneaky. They don't crash the price all the way through; they just feed you slowly, making you feel like every rebound still has a chance. A 24% weekly rise is truly scary—the strongest single week since March 2023. But the more this happens, the less I dare to follow. Look, retail investors are still rushing in—189,000 people are liquidated. This isn't a bull market frenzy; it's just carrying a sedan chair for the whale. I know some people will say the trend isn't broken and don't get off, but you can clearly tell who's buying and who's selling. Huge inflows into exchanges are not for show; every time the price rallys, someone dumps their chips to chasers. My principle is simple: whales may misjudge, but their actions always carry information gaps. You don't have to follow the sell, but at least don't add positions at this level. When the market is hot, there is good news all around. At this point, the only thing you should do is take your hand off the order button. Once this divergence ends, the direction will become clear. $BTC $ETH #BTC延续强势—can the flow of funds be sustained? #黄金突破4600美元, bond safe-haven status is challenged by #三星股东回报落地, with a maximum of about $80 billion $BTC #WhiteHouseSummit: Trump said he discussed buying BTC $BTC Trump is a businessman It's not entirely that what Trump says is false, but it means the "statement" signal source itself is not neutral—those who are bullish partly have vested interests. You can't tell if this sentence is a "presidential policy judgment" or a "businessman calling for his own assets."Positive news triggers a pullback, dissecting the four major causes of intense volatility in $TRUMP-related tokens Many people see related concept tokens surge and then quickly fall, simply assuming deliberate profit-taking. In fact, this is a normal market trend formed by multiple overlapping factors. 1. The market has priced in the positive news in advance, and funds exit when the news is released Previously, related positive news continued to ferment, with industry-friendly policies and crypto summits emerging one after another. Mainstream tokens like $BTC and $ETH had already experienced an upward trend in advance. When the news officially lands, the market lacks new upward expectations, and a large amount of holding funds choose to take profits and exit. 2. Information asymmetry among funds, with major players leading ordinary investors Institutions and whales can capture news clues early and lay out chips at low levels in advance. When the entire network is flooded with news and retail investors follow suit, it happens to be the stage when large funds sell off in batches to realize profits. 3. High-level long leverage accumulation amplifies the decline During the previous continuous rise, the market's long leverage positions increased significantly. A slight price pullback triggers mass forced liquidations, and chain selling further depresses prices, creating the impression of a rapid market crash. 4. Hot concept tokens rely on sentiment-driven dynamics, with extreme rise and fall rhythms #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain? Waking up, Bitcoin is still rising—approaching $80,000. Is this a raging bull run or the final bull trap? If you haven't checked the market in the past two days, opening the candlestick chart now might make you feel like you time-traveled in your sleep. Bitcoin surged from $57,600 at the beginning of July to a high of $79,555, nearly hitting the $80,000 mark. It has gained over 24% this week, marking the largest weekly increase since March 2023. Behind this is a short squeeze frenzy that wiped out 189,000 traders. In the past three days, about $4.5 billion worth of short positions across the market have been liquidated. Short sellers lie scattered everywhere. Three driving forces have pushed $BTC into a frenzy: Policy—The US Treasury Secretary announced a doubling of Treasury buyback size, causing long-term bond yields to fall; Trump met with crypto executives, strongly promoting the "Clear Act." Regulatory expectations have shifted from a "sword hanging overhead" to a "boost underfoot." Short squeeze—Perpetual contract funding rates have been negative for a long time, with short leverage piled to the extreme. The higher the price rises, the more liquidations occur, the stronger the buying pressure—a self-reinforcing death spiral. Institutional funds—ETFs attracted over $1 billion this week, BlackRock's IBIT grabbed $280 million in a single day; whales increased holdings by $2.75 billion over 60 days. Standard Chartered bluntly stated that the $100,000 target might even be "too conservative." But can the capital flow continue? There is a ceiling to the short squeeze—once shorts are liquidated, passive buying disappears. Whether the price can continue to rise depends on two legs: whether ETFs can maintain hundreds of millions of dollars in net inflows, and whether Strategy will restart financing to buy coins. Against the backdrop of a general contraction in major tech weights, funds have driven $TSLA to rally more than 5% against the trend, catalyzed by localized events. The market shows a clear structural diversion; while mainstream indices are under pressure, short-term long positions quickly concentrate on a single target. The main driver comes from expectations of Austin Cybercab test rides at the end of the month and technical demonstration news, with localized liquidity amplifying risk appetite pulses. This round of buying triggered by specific nodes temporarily detaches pricing logic from macro inflation and interest rate suppression, shifting to short-term pricing of frontier technology premiums. If the technical details and booking pace of the on-site demonstration exceed expectations, short covering will further push up prices; however, if the demonstration is confirmed to be limited to very narrow specific scenarios, the upward trend will weaken. When the broader market pressure intensifies or the test rides lack substantial commercialization support, highly concentrated long positions are prone to triggering profit-taking selling pressure, causing valuation centers to revert to industry averages; if the broader market stabilizes and incremental funds take over, downward pressure will ease. If the subsequent announced delivery schedule is significantly delayed, the current valuation logic based on sentiment premiums will be directly falsified. The most important variable to watch in the coming days is whether the specific implementation details of the technical demonstration can sustain the currently accumulated short-term positions. #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战$BTC around $77K and $ETH near $2.4K — the macro backdrop is finally starting to cooperate. Treasury buybacks, a softer dollar, stronger ETF inflows and expectations of easier Fed policy are all adding fuel to risk assets. But I’m not treating this rally as confirmed yet. The real test is whether institutional demand can keep absorbing supply. Around $1.6B in weekly spot BTC ETF inflows is encouraging, but sustained flows matter more than one strong week. $BTC $ETH #BTC77KFlowTest HIP-4 adds a permissionless event prediction market to Hyperliquid, allowing traders to trade prediction contracts within the same account. This is expected to bring new fee revenue, lock up a large amount of HYPE tokens to reduce circulation, and push the platform from a simple contract DEX to a comprehensive trading infrastructure. However, there are also issues such as high market creation barriers that may lead to monopolization by large holders, potential disputes in event settlement, and increased regulatory pressure due to its gambling attributes. This represents a fundamental upgrade benefit, but the value ultimately depends on whether the prediction market can generate real and sustainable trading volume. This is only a project logic explanation and does not constitute investment advice. Account Position Divergence Radar Is the directional consensus real or fake? Just compare the account proportions with the top holdings. $BEAT: Neither all accounts, top accounts, nor top holdings are aligned in the same direction; currently, it looks more like a divergence market. Price rises while positions decrease, indicating the driving force likely comes from old positions exiting. When the metrics are not aligned on one side, first observe which side the top holdings converge to, then see if the price responds accordingly. $DOGE: More accounts are bullish, but the top position weights are bearish, so the apparent consensus has not yet translated into position scale. The rise is not accompanied by position withdrawals; new positions have already participated, but continuation depends on subsequent price response. The top holdings need to recover towards 1 for the position weights to start matching account sentiment. $SUI: Account direction is bullish, but top holdings are bearish; the side with more participants is temporarily not the side with heavier top positions. Price is rising while open interest is falling, which most certainly indicates position reduction driving the move, but the specific exiting party cannot be confirmed by this data alone. The account side is already bullish; next, it depends on whether the top positions are willing to shift their weight to the same side.The advantage of $OKB is its scarce supply, but the risk lies in the relatively concentrated ecosystem. Its price is highly tied to OKX, X Layer, and related policy changes, so it cannot be fully valued in the same way as BTC. I would define OKB as a small-position ecological investment rather than a core holding; contracts are more suitable for short-term trading and not for long-term holding. $BTC surged then pulled back with collective weakness—is this a top or a bullish continuation shakeout? Yesterday's surge to 79,500 was wild, and today's pullback is equally panic-inducing. The entire network saw $547 million liquidated in a single day, with over 80% being forced liquidations of long positions. Many just called for a bull market restart, then immediately started calling a top. I actually think there's no need to overreact. This drop is essentially a leverage liquidation, not a trend reversal. In the first three days, the price climbed from 64,000 to nearly 80,000. In this short squeeze, long leverage was piled up too high, funding rates kept rising, and the position structure was inherently fragile. At the 80,000 round number, previous trapped positions and short-term profit-taking concentrated their sell-offs. High-leverage long positions triggered a chain of forced liquidations, and the long-liquidation cascade further amplified the decline—basically, the logic of the previous short squeeze played out in reverse. On the macro level, it's just emotional disturbance without any substantial new negative factors. The escalation of US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices up, and the market worries about inflation persisting and delaying rate cuts, but these are old topics repeatedly fermenting. The core logic supporting this rebound—regulatory easing and US Treasury declines—remains intact. Moreover, BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive days; institutional long-term funds haven't fled. The sell-offs are all short-term speculative leveraged positions. I reduced most of my long positions at lower levels earlier, keeping the rest with proper stop-loss to protect capital. If the strong support zone between 74,000-75,000 holds, I will consider scaling back in. Leveraged washouts are normal in a bull market; if you don't clear out floating positions, the rally won't go far. Did you take profits or get trapped this round? Where do you see the support level? $ETH What truly deserves attention in Samsung's recent move is not the size of the "$80 billion" figure, but a signal: the money earned from AI chips is starting to flow from capital expenditures and the supply chain to shareholders. On August 21, Samsung Electronics announced that it expects to return 90 trillion to 110 trillion Korean won to shareholders by 2026, equivalent to about $65 billion to $80 billion, setting a record high in South Korean corporate history and more than five times Samsung's 2020 shareholder return record. The company plans to distribute about 30 trillion won in cash dividends in the third quarter, with the remaining funds to be decided based on full-year performance in early 2027, in forms including cash dividends, stock buybacks, and cancellations. This is not a sudden "generosity." What has truly changed behind the scenes is Samsung's cash flow. One of the biggest conflicts in the semiconductor industry over the past few years has been whether the money earned by companies should be used for expansion or returned to shareholders. But the AI era has shifted this balance. Previously, the market worried about the downward price cycle of memory chips; if companies expanded production too aggressively, they could easily fall into a cycle of "higher profits, greater capital expenditures, and ultimately cash flow pressure." Now the situation is different. AI data centers are voraciously consuming high-bandwidth memory, especially HBM. AI computing giants like Nvidia are continuously expanding data center investments, directly pushing memory chips from traditional cyclical products to an essential part of AI infrastructure. Samsung has naturally benefited from this cycle. More importantly, Samsung is now not just "earning more," but is beginning to have the capability on a large scaleThe cryptocurrency market suddenly crashed. $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL, and $HYPE all experienced intense volatility within minutes. $XRP was hit especially hard, dropping from $1.70 to $1.38 before quickly rebounding. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Besent's market rescue lasted only one day, with all three major stock indexes falling, Walmart selling off, and AI storage and optical communications breaking out against the trend The 30-year US Treasury yield has rebounded to 5.28%, approaching the critical 5.3% level. With a $40 trillion US debt scale plus a 6% deficit rate, the Treasury issuing new bonds to buy back old ones is just a small spoon scooping water from a bucket The chain reaction this brings to the market ▶️ US Stocks Valuation reshaping and policy failure ▶️ Tech stocks bleeding High yields directly raise discount rates, and the financing costs for giants investing heavily in AI cannot be lowered ▶️ Confidence collapse The market is not afraid of high interest rates, but of policy failure. Even the Treasury's intervention cannot suppress rates, accelerating risk aversion ▶️ Crypto market Short-term drainage, mid-to-long-term nourishment ▶️ Short-term pressure Still has risk asset attributes, fiat liquidity tightening suppresses short-term performance ▶️ Long-term hedge US Treasuries are just moving from left hand to right hand, which ironically gives the loudest advertisement to assets like Bitcoin with a fixed total supply Endgame trend forecast: Deficit will not decrease, yields breaking 5.3% and even surging to 5.5% is only a matter of time. As long as long-term rates forcibly push US stocks and the real economy into crisis, it will trigger the endgame, forcing the Fed to cut rates and flood liquidity, at which point US stocks and the crypto market will see a strong rebound DYOR Yesterday, I didn't anticipate $BTC rising to $73,000, and today I didn't expect Bitcoin to reach $79,000. However, among my close friends, there are indeed two very extreme approaches to this surge. Some of the more traditional friends have almost completely sold off all the Bitcoin or $IBIT they recently bought, as they are not very optimistic about this rebound, believing that the rally has peaked and a deeper correction will follow. Even selling at a loss is done to free up funds to buy more during the correction, which I can understand. On the other hand, a group of quantitative and trading-native crypto investors believe this is the start of a bull market, firmly convinced that Bitcoin's rise is a long-suppressed breakout, with expectations that Bitcoin could at least return to around $90,000. As for me, I am a relatively conservative investor. I've always said that my ideal price, the price at which I am willing to spend real money to buy Bitcoin, is below $65,000. So I have been trading back and forth with dual coins, and at most, I can accept BTC near $70,000. But if it goes higher, I might not be in a hurry to buy. Also, my biggest hope for 2026 is not now, but after the midterm elections. Personally, I think the best time to enter is around October, and to exit in December or January next year. This is my current personal view. Also, looking at the current US stock market situation, I don't believe BTC can significantly surge independently of the US stock market. Although it might be because it fell too much before, a catch-up rally is unlikely to be like this. So recently, I've been considering hedging around $77,000. Many retail investors haven't exited yet and are still holding altcoins, waiting for the $BTC market to pull back and funds to rotate into altcoins. I believe this time there might not be a large-scale fund rotation because the recent surge in $BTC and $ETH was mostly driven by ETF inflows. The probability of ETF funds withdrawing and flowing into altcoins is very low.Bitcoin breaks $70,000, the structural trace left in the market by the 10,000-point capitulation of short positions. How should the price increase caused by the short squeeze be distinguished from real demand inflow? The original trader entered a 5x leverage short at BTC 69,646 and maintained additional margin while enduring about a $10,000 adverse move over 8 weeks. Although this is a single case, it shows that the leverage shorts accumulated in the derivatives market were forcibly liquidated during the price rise, amplifying the upward momentum. The problem is what new demand will drive further increases after this short squeeze is exhausted. - From a market structural perspective, a significant part of this rise is liquidation-induced. Short positions were forcibly closed, bringing buying volume into the market, which pulled prices up again and created a feedback loop causing further liquidations. - The difference from actual spot demand can be confirmed by the speed of increase in spot trading volume on exchanges and open interest in derivatives. Liquidation-driven rises are characterized by a sharp decrease in open interest. Solana Slot Time Compressed to 350 Milliseconds: The Ultimate Trade-off Between Extreme Performance and Node Threshold The Solana mainnet target slot time has been successfully compressed to 350 milliseconds, with a full sprint towards the ultimate goal of 200 milliseconds. Sub-second ultra-fast confirmations make on-chain DEX order book matching and high-frequency interactions almost as smooth as centralized exchanges, significantly reducing slippage losses and front-running wait times. However, any engineering breakthrough at this extreme level comes with a cost: high-concurrency data synchronization imposes extremely stringent requirements on the hardware computing power and network bandwidth of validator nodes, making it impossible for ordinary devices to participate. This has sparked intense debate within the community. While the speedup improves user experience, is it causing validation power to become overly concentrated in the hands of a few professional data centers, thereby eroding the decentralization foundation of the public chain? Supporters emphasize the genuine demand for extreme performance from hundreds of millions of users and institutional high-frequency capital in the real commercial world, while opponents worry about the dilution of censorship resistance. In fact, the public chain sector is accelerating towards specialization: some public chains adhere to the foundational value settlement ledger, while Solana clearly anchors itself in the niche of on-chain high-concurrency financial halls. When choosing a public chain to support long-term, do you value extreme performance and ecosystem experience more, or decentralization and censorship resistance? --- The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？
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