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$HYPE is currently priced at $82.17, approaching its historical high. The monthly unlocking of $784 million by core contributors combined with a base repurchase of $50 million to $80 million creates a structural liquidity gap.
A 39% increase over the past 7 days has pushed the market cap to $13 billion. The surge in on-chain perpetual contract trading volume in August has boosted fee repurchases, temporarily masking the incremental token supply release.
The heat of derivatives trading is the primary variable determining current liquidity absorption capacity, while valuation recovery driven by overall market sentiment is secondary. Once trading volume returns to normal, the monthly selling pressure of 9.92 million HYPE will reappear in the spot market clearing process.
The bullish scenario is based on sustained high trading volume. If the surge in on-chain perpetual contract trading volume significantly expands fee repurchase scale enough to absorb the $784 million monthly unlocking sell-off, the price may break through the historical high of $82.43 accordingly. The failure signal for this scenario is a drop in trading volume causing monthly repurchases to fall below the $100 million threshold.
The bearish scenario corresponds to a cooling of trading activity combined with structural unlocking. When monthly repurchases fall to the normal range of $50 million to $80 million, unlocking sell pressure nearly 10 times the repurchase amount will directly compress the buy-side depth of the spot market. The failure signal for this scenario is a strong systemic buy-side support in the market forcibly absorbing the sell pressure.
In the next 7 days, key observations will focus on the daily average changes in on-chain perpetual contract trading volume and the spot market's buying strength during unlocking windows to absorb new tokens.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元Why do we consider the possible correction in the crypto market specifically as a pullback, rather than the end of growth? And accordingly, why do we not see long-term shorts as a sensible idea? The answer to this question is given by signals on several charts: - dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC, - TOTAL (total crypto market capitalization), - TOTAL2 (crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin), - TOTAL3 (crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum), - OTHERS (crypto market capitalization excluding the TOP-10). Let's start with the dominance of stablecoins. HereThe whale who has been close to Ethereum had just cut losses on Bitcoin and immediately added $75 million to its long position in Ethereum. When the news broke, the market's first reaction was not cheers, but skepticism. The price was briefly pushed to around $2,549, but then hit an invisible wall and quickly retreated. This scene made many seasoned traders smell a familiar scent. In the derivatives market, such high-profile and massive purchases often don't become the engine of market trends; instead, they act more like a prominent flag. Main funds are best at making deals around these open-label positions. Since your cost, direction, and even stop-loss are all under the spotlight, what awaits you is probably not a smooth ride but a carefully planned shakeout. The current decline in Ethereum prices perfectly confirms the logic of this reverse game. From the perspective of behavioral finance, this whale's operation carries a hint of contradiction. Having just suffered losses on Bitcoin, they now increase their leverage to bet on Ethereum, which inevitably shows a rush to break even. And this urgency is precisely the market's most vulnerable weakness. As long as his long position remains unchanged, there will always be a potential selling pressure above the price, like the sword of Damocles hanging overhead. Of course, we cannot confirm the true intentions of the main funds, nor do we intend to predict specific levels. But in terms of market language, this kind of stagnation and pullback after openly holding positions often means significant short-term selling pressure. Rather than chasing highs, it's better to remain patient and observe whether the price can find support during a deeper pullback.In 2022, BTC quickly dropped from around $21,000 to $17,500, then rebounded strongly, eventually retesting around $15,500 again. ETH followed a similar "sharp drop—rebound—second bottom" pattern. Today's market seems to have seen familiar shadows again. In 2026, BTC will quickly rebound from around $57,000 to close to $82,000, and ETH will climb back above around $2,600. But this time, there is a clear difference: institutional funds are re-entering the crypto market. Recently, the US spot BTC ETF saw a weekly net inflow of nearly $2.1 billion, while ETH ETFs saw about $740 million in inflows over the same period. BTC has continuously received financial support, indicating that this rally is not driven solely by retail investor sentiment. Meanwhile, the market has also begun to focus on Federal Reserve policy, dollar liquidity, and macro catalysts such as the Jackson Hole meeting. If ETF funds continue to flow in, the current market may be gradually shifting from an "oversold rebound" to a new trend phase. However, if capital inflows start to cool and BTC fails to break previous highs, another deep correction cannot be ruled out. Is this a confirmation of the new cycle's bottom, or is it another attempt to trigger another bullish rebound? Next, ETF capital flows and whether BTC can hold key resistance levels will be the most important verification signals. 👀 #BTC #ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #ETF #加密货币This time would be different: - This would be the shortest bear market ever - Bitcoin has always retested the average buy price which is still downward sloping at $51,926 - Potential profit has always gone negative, still positive Bear case: IF price stalls out at the $82,000 area and does not make a higher high and starts to breakdown from upward trend line, THEN it's possible this bear market becomes an extended vs. shortened. For this scenario to happen, I think the stock market would have ZEC/USDT Quick Update ($ USD) 📊
Zcash is stabilizing around $ZEC 814.42 after bouncing off local support at $806.48.
* Bullish Case: A breakout above $815.75 (MA5) could ignite a recovery toward $826.16 (MA10) and $838.20 (MA20).
* Bearish Case: Rejection below $815.75 risks another retest of the $806.48 support, with a break lower targeting $800.00.
Key Level to Watch: $ZEC 826.16 (MA10 resistance).
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #OKXTraderVoices Today the market pulled back, what is the reason? Is it because a series of major events are coming one after another, causing funds to hedge in advance? Or is it because the 30-year US Treasury yield has continuously stayed above 5.20%, which is bearish for the tech growth sector? Major macro events are arriving intensively, and funds choose to hedge and wait in advance. The 30-year US Treasury yield has stabilized above 5.20%, suppressing tech and risk assets, and crypto is also affected by liquidity transmission. 📅 Key timeline for the super week 8/24 Monday: Basent press conference | Discloses details of the "economic war" against Iran, affecting geopolitical risk sentiment 8/26 Wednesday: Nvidia earnings + July PCE inflation + GDP revision 👉 Key points: AI performance guidance, inflation readings, directly influencing risk asset preferences 8/27 Thursday: Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting opening + South Korea central bank decision + domestic industrial and enterprise profits 👉 The highest weighted event this week, waiting for central banks to release interest rate signals 8/28 Friday: Walsh's debut + initial revision of nonfarm benchmark 👉 New Fed chair's public statements, employment data calibration, disturbing rate cut expectations This week is packed with news, plus Nvidia's Q2 earnings and Walsh's debut! It is expected to be a volatile and turbulent week! $BTC $ETH $NVDA $ETH Market right now:
BTC: Range between 70k - 80k
ETH: Absorbing BTC profits
SOL/AVAX/TON: +5% to +8% today
$BTC
Translation:
Smart money rotated last week.
Dumb money is rotating today.
Don’t chase the 8% candle.
Position before it.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #CryptoxSNDK/USDT Short Analysis ($ USD) 📊
xSNDK is recovering after bouncing off strong support at $xSNDK 1,420.41 and is currently consolidating around $1,490.00.
* Bullish Case: Holding above $1,483.74 (MA5) could trigger another push toward resistance at $1,510.00 – $1,520.00.
* Bearish Case: Rejection around current levels could pull the price back down to test support at $1,460.00 or lower.
Key Level to Watch: $xSNDK 1,491.29 (MA10 resistance breakout).
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #OKXTraderVoices This morning before the US stock market opened, gold and Bitcoin continued to remain strong, especially gold breaking its previous high again. This week is also a period of intensive macro events, which may trigger significant volatility:
1. Wednesday 20:30: July PCE data
2. Earnings reports after Wednesday's market close, conference call at 5 AM Thursday
3. Friday 22:00: Waller's speech
Currently, the market's most critical expectation for the core monthly PCE data is 0.23%, which rounds to 0.2%. As long as the core PCE monthly rate is below 0.3%, the market is very likely to remain moderate.
Recently, AI stocks have gradually cooled down, and Nvidia's earnings are unlikely to exceed expectations again, especially after they have already used the big move of guaranteed loans, basically marking a phase of exhausted potential. As the saying goes, "good news that doesn't push prices up is bad news." Against the backdrop of weak US Treasury bonds, it is difficult for US stocks to stand out alone, and indeed it is time for a rest.
Friday's Waller speech is the key to the next market trend. Especially after Basset just announced a doubling of long-term Treasury repurchases, the market urgently needs more information to confirm whether there was prior coordination between the two and whether the Fed will lean hawkish in the future.
a) From the perspective of policy space, whether this coordination was pre-planned or not, the objective result is that Basset has taken on part of the long-term stabilization task, giving Waller greater room for hawkish expression.
b) Moreover, this is Waller's first important speech as Fed Chair at Jackson Hole, where he needs to establish his own and recharge the Fed's credibility.
c) This year's conference theme is "Financial Innovation: Impacts on Payments and Policy." Therefore, this meeting may see a differentiated market reaction, meaning he might lean hawkish on policy, bearish for US stocks, but potentially release long-term friendly signals for stablecoins, tokenized payments, and financial innovation, which would be bullish for the crypto space. However, this does not necessarily mean BTC will rise; even if friendly signals are released, they favor crypto regulatory development but are bearish for BTC short-term liquidity. Ultimately, it depends on which force is stronger.
In summary, this week may see a rise followed by a fall, dovish first then hawkish. Especially with Xi Jinping's visit to the US in September providing a diplomatic repair window to reprice hawkishness in September. So taking the opportunity to build hawkish credibility first is a very worthwhile trade, as missing this window and then turning hawkish before the midterm elections will leave little room for repair later.Behind the new high of $HYPE, is it buybacks supporting the price or unlocks weighing it down?
HYPE is now at $82.17, up 39% in 7 days, just shy of the all-time high of $82.43, with a market cap of $13 billion.
The Hyperliquid story is clear: a leading on-chain perpetual contract platform, with fees going into a rescue fund that then buys back HYPE. The larger the trading volume, the more buybacks.
But there is a number that cannot be ignored: core contributors unlock about 9.92 million HYPE tokens monthly, which at the current price adds roughly $784 million in selling pressure each month. Meanwhile, the rescue fund’s buybacks under normal trading volume are about $50 million to $80 million monthly. The selling pressure from unlocks is about ten times the buyback strength! This new high is driven by an explosion in trading volume in August, with buybacks temporarily outweighing unlocks.
The problem is that trading volume can’t stay this crazy every day. When the market returns to normal, the buyback/unlock ratio will revert, and HYPE will face structural selling pressure again.
My judgment: the short-term new high is overheated, and chasing the price carries more risk than opportunity. The long-term value of $HYPE depends on whether the platform can continue to grow trading volume enough for buybacks to cover unlocks. Right now, it looks more like a valuation recovery riding the market heat, not a trend reversal.
Watch two signals: whether perpetual contract trading volume can stay high; and whether selling pressure after unlocks is absorbed. Without answers, don’t rush to label it a "DeFi blue chip".
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 In the past 24 hours, the total contract liquidations across the network amounted to approximately $374 million:
Short positions liquidated about $240 million;
Long positions liquidated about $134 million.
Short positions account for over 60%, indicating that today's rally includes a significant short squeeze component.
A short squeeze can drive prices to break out quickly, but if spot buying doesn't keep up, after the shorts are liquidated, the market may suddenly lose the fuel to continue rising.
#contract #liquidation #BTCThe storage trio plunges, while Bitcoin and Ethereum strengthen against the trend
On August 24, the US stock market's storage chip sector suffered a brutal sell-off. The storage sector index dropped nearly 7%, SanDisk $SNDK fell over 10%, Seagate Technology and Western Digital dropped over 7%, SK Hynix and Micron Technology fell over 6%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 4%, and Intel dropped 5%. The direct trigger for the sharp decline came from Samsung Electronics' shareholder return plan announced last weekend — the scale was record-breaking but the details disappointed the market. JPMorgan pointed out three major flaws: the Q3 return scale was below expectations, no stock buyback plan, and the shareholder return ratio remained unchanged at 50%.
In stark contrast to the bleak storage chip sector, the cryptocurrency market strengthened against the trend. Bitcoin $BTC surpassed the $79,000 mark, rising over 25% in the past 7 days; Ethereum $ETH broke through $2,500, rising over 3% in 24 hours. Driven by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's expansion of Treasury repurchases and ETF capital inflows, the crypto market sentiment is high. Market participants noted that the weakening US dollar alongside the simultaneous rise of gold and Bitcoin further reinforces the narrative of a "currency devaluation trade." On one side, traditional semiconductor giants plunged due to disappointing earnings expectations; on the other, crypto assets surged under favorable policies. This divergence between the two markets reflects the complex mindset of capital seeking both risk aversion and profit.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Sui’s January 2025 launch cited Phantom’s 15M+ monthly users, but that figure was for Phantom overall—not Sui-specific users.
So calling it 15M Sui users would be misleading.$BTC has once again reclaimed the 1130-day SMA, which is indeed a medium-to-long-term signal worth paying attention to. In past cycles, this kind of ultra-long-term moving average often serves as the "bear-bull dividing line." Reclaiming it at least indicates the market is shifting from a long-term weakness back toward recovery.
Especially after the break below in June, BTC stayed below the moving average for about 80 days, then in August broke through $74,000 and reclaimed it, showing that the previously extreme pessimistic pricing is being corrected. If historical patterns continue to hold, this indeed has some significance for a cycle reversal.
However, note that reclaiming the moving average ≠ a confirmed bull market. The real key is whether it can hold above it consistently afterward and turn the pullback into support. If it repeatedly falls back below the moving average after the breakout, or even loses the $70,000 level again, the reliability of this signal will significantly decrease.
Therefore, I tend to view this as a medium-to-long-term bullish positive factor rather than a direct all-in buy signal.
Next, the focus is on whether the 1130-day SMA can complete the "resistance → support" flip, combined with ETF capital flows and weekly chart structure for judgment. If the pullback confirmation succeeds, the value of this signal will clearly increase.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 Just now on OKX, $BTC hit a high of 79,999.8 USD, then quickly dropped back to around 78,500 USD. There was no simultaneous unexpected positive news; this breakout seems more like a continuation of the recent upward momentum, with a final concentrated release at 80,000 USD.
This recent move is more influenced by market factors. After BTC broke the previous high of 79,500 USD, it triggered short stop-losses and breakout buy orders near 80,000 USD. However, the funding rate is only about 0.0076%, the long-short ratio returned to around 1, and leverage is not at an extreme level, indicating this is not a forced pull-up by contracts alone.
The current question is whether it can hold above this level. After reaching 80,000 USD, it immediately pulled back, and selling pressure has appeared; if it can stabilize above 80,000 USD again, the next resistance is at 82,800–83,000 USD. If it fails to reclaim this level soon, watch 78,000 USD first, and if it dips further, look at 76,800–77,300 USD.
The long-term structure is not overheated yet, but the fear and greed index has risen to 73. The trend remains strong, but this is no longer a suitable point for emotional chasing. Touching 80,000 USD is not a breakout; holding above it is what counts.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 A key event happened in the market last week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen doubled the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases from $2 billion to $4 billion, with the core purpose of lowering U.S. Treasury yields and reducing the U.S. government's financing costs.
After the policy was implemented, the 30-year Treasury yield fell from 5.34% to 5.19%, bonds rose, while BTC surged 7% in a single day, and gold XAU rose 4%.
At 2 a.m. tonight, a major event affecting BTC and ETH will take place: the U.S. will announce the latest sanctions details on Iran. Trump called this the strongest sanctions in history, comparable to the economic version of the Normandy landing.
The subsequent situation is not optimistic. Iran has clearly stated that if sanctions escalate, it will retaliate in kind. Currently, Iran deliberately left the Oman route open for crude oil transportation, allowing 8 million barrels of crude oil to be exported daily, stabilizing current oil prices, serving as a buffer space for the game between both sides.
But if the U.S. implements the ultimate sanctions, Iran will leave no room, likely fully blocking the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the Mand Strait, striking oil ports along the route, and even causing a complete halt to Middle East crude oil exports.
The current market is generally optimistic, believing the situation will likely be more bark than bite, so oil prices have temporarily fallen and are waiting. But the risk cannot be ignored; the implementation of sanctions could easily trigger an escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $BTC $ETH $2.6 billion poured in, but BTC still hasn't broken above 80,000 — what exactly is the market waiting for?
This time, the feeling is indeed different.
Last week, the combined inflow into $BTC spot ETF and $ETH spot ETF was about $2.6 billion, marking the strongest single-week record since October last year. BlackRock's IBIT alone took in $503 million in a single day, large holders stopped selling and started accumulating, and whales have hoarded 43,000 BTC over the past 60 days. The capital rotation chain is also very clear — BTC broke through first, ETH followed with nearly a 30% rise, ZEC surged 75% weekly hitting a historic high, ENA skyrocketed nearly 100%, altcoins and Meme coins began to take over, very much like what a bull market should look like.
But the problem is, BTC got stuck around $79,400, then pulled back to oscillate between $77,000 and $78,000, never managing to break above the 80,000 mark with volume.
The money really did come in, but the price didn’t respond accordingly.
Here’s a detail worth pondering: over $2.7 billion worth of shorts were liquidated this week, and the core driver pushing prices up was forced short covering, not new buying entering the market. After the shorts were wiped out, the largest marginal buying power also disappeared — which explains the divergence of "new highs with decreasing volume."
In other words, the market is simulating "strong bulls" through "short liquidation," but these two are not equivalent.
More subtly, the macro environment is also fermenting in advance. The U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repos, signaling liquidity easing, and the crypto market is using immediate high leverage to digest macro benefits that have not yet fully transmitted. Meanwhile, this week’s PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Waller’s speech are about to be released; if expectations are disappointed, the early pricing could quickly turn into overpricing.
So, rather than rushing to call a "turnaround," it’s better to focus on a few more honest signals:
- Whether ETFs see net outflows for three consecutive days — a true thermometer of institutional allocation willingness
- Whether BTC can break above and hold 80,000 — not just touching it, but holding it
- Whether funding rates remain positive after falling — whether long leverage has truly been cleared
$2.6 billion is indeed a strong signal, but a strong signal does not equal certainty. The market has given a bullish reason, but also left an unresolved question: when the short squeeze dividend is exhausted and macro expectations face testing, how long can this upward momentum last?
The answer may come this week.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 If you haven't gotten on board yet, hurry up and get on.
BTC just touched a high of 79934.
Rounded up, that's 80k.
My 78 $ETH long positions have already gained 8300U in floating profit.
At this point, why would you get off?
This round is aiming for 2600 first.
Just go straight up.
Trust me.
The bull market is already at the doorstep.
——
ETH is now fluctuating between 2460 and 2500.
A 24-hour increase of about 1%.
It has risen nearly 30% in seven days.
Last week, spot ETF net inflows were $697 million.
Both spot and institutional funds are pouring in.
But contract open interest has already reached around $32.3 billion.
Leverage is also stacked very high.
So there will definitely be some mid-way shakeouts.
It might come back to test around 2350.
My cost basis is exactly 2357.
This level must hold for me.
——
$TRUMP's current rise is not normal.
Trading volume is still six to seven hundred million dollars.
Almost on par with circulating market cap.
This indicates very fierce turnover inside.
And on-chain data shows
team-related addresses just sold out 3.39 million USDC.
This thing is pumping while dumping at the same time.
If it can hold near 2.30, it might rebound to 2.70.
Only above that do I look at 3 dollars.
I might take a small bite,
but definitely wouldn't go all in at the peak.
——
$ZEC
Grayscale Zcash Trust is expected to be listed on NYSE Arca on August 25,
ticker ZCSH.
This is the core reason for the recent surge of funds into ZEC.
If 800 holds, continue to watch the previous high at 865.
If it really breaks through, some might even call for 900 or 1000.
But the listing still depends on regulatory procedures.
Be careful of a final wave of positive news realization.
Don't short this coin recklessly,
and don't blindly chase it.
——
There's another piece of news not to be ignored.
The U.S. Treasury may use nearly $1 trillion of TGA funds to expand long-term bond buybacks.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen back from around 4.70%.
This is a short-term breath of oxygen for crypto.
But this does not mean the Fed is officially cutting rates or easing.
So BTC holding above 80k,
and ETH reaching 2600 is not a dream.
If it doesn't hold,
my 8300U profit might disappear overnight.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Friends who are not rushing into a bull frenzy yet,
There is a major event tonight that will have a significant impact on btc and eth.
At 2 AM, the US will announce the details of sanctions on Iran, which could become a major short-term variable for BTC and ETH.
If the sanctions exceed expectations and Iran escalates the conflict further, once the risk of the Strait of Hormuz is repriced, oil prices and risk aversion sentiment will rise, and BTC and ETH may face a wave of sharp rises followed by pullbacks.
But the market hasn't turned bad yet. Ethereum hasn't disappointed me, once again breaking above 2500, clearly outperforming altcoins compared to BTC. I am focusing on BTC at 83000; if it holds here, ETH will continue to strengthen, and I even think there is a real chance for this cycle to reach 5000.
It's normal for altcoins to dip slightly now, as funds are concentrating on BTC and ETH. I won't chase tonight; I'll wait for the news at midnight to settle before deciding the next step.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 The rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the suppression of overall tech sector risk appetite ahead of Nvidia's earnings report have led to $xSKHY being hit by sector sell-offs, clearing long positions. However, the technical barriers built through early sample delivery are now competing with expectations of market share loss.
On the market front, after a 5.5% drop last Friday, $xSKHY fell another 3%+ today, showing that tight macro liquidity is suppressing valuation multiples of high-level hardware sectors, with long funds being squeezed out before major events. The underlying order logic remains strong; on June 18, 12-layer HBM4E samples (48GB, pin rate 16Gbps, 20% energy efficiency improvement, 17% thermal resistance reduction) were delivered to core customers, securing a first-mover advantage in the generational race.
In terms of driving factors, the top is the decline in macro risk appetite triggered by high U.S. Treasury yields, followed by option hedging demand sparked by Nvidia's earnings, while early HBM4E sample delivery and capacity expansion on the industry side are core elements supporting the long-term valuation floor. The company raised $29.4 billion in its July 10 Nasdaq IPO, having invested 45.5 trillion KRW in M100 capacity expansion and 11.9 trillion KRW in EUV equipment procurement, along with 40 trillion KRW in cancelable buybacks to buffer short-term liquidation pressure.
In the bullish scenario, if Nvidia's earnings exceed expectations and release risk appetite, and global HBM demand breaks through 30 billion Gb as expected this year, the overall market expansion will absorb the shrinkage expectation of market share dropping from 59% to 50%. This scenario requires monitoring whether long positions flow back into the AI hardware leader; a failure signal would be continued tightening of macro liquidity causing a second sector bottom test.
In the bearish scenario, if the high-interest-rate environment drags the valuation baseline further down and competitors catch up faster than expected in the second half, valuation restructuring pressure will suppress stock price rebound space. This scenario is triggered by continued U.S. Treasury yield rises causing sector-wide valuation cuts; monitoring competitors' mass production progress is necessary, with a failure signal being early completion of HBM4E customer validation.
When macro inflation expectations heat up again or U.S. Treasury yields surge beyond expectations, even with industry-leading technology, overall position clearing will dominate short-term trends.
The core variables to watch in the next 7 days are the direction of U.S. Treasury yield changes and the strength of risk appetite recovery in the overall chip sector after Nvidia's earnings release.
#卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升$BTC & $ETH : IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell to $17.7K in June, rallied sharply, then retested lows near $15.8K. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has again rebounded strongly from below $60K toward $80K, while $ETH recovered above $2.4K. But this cycle has a major difference: institutional demand is returning through spot ETFs, with recent weekly inflows approaching $2B for Bitcoin and nearly $700M for Ethereum.
Is this a real cycle bottom—or another relief rally? 🔥 After the BTC rebound, where is the capital flowing? Key conclusions: The current market risk appetite has clearly recovered, but it cannot yet be defined as a full Altseason. BTC remains the core of capital, ETH is starting to take over, some large Altcoins are seeing capital dispersion, and the real key lies in whether subsequent liquidity can continue to transmit to the altcoin market. 1. Market capital behavior The recent BTC rebound is mainly driven by ETF capital inflows + short covering + improved liquidity expectations. BTC ETF net inflow is about $1.9 billion per week, ETH ETF about $700 million, indicating institutional capital is re-entering the market. However, BTC Dominance remains high, meaning capital still favors core assets. The capital flow path is closer to: BTC → ETH → large-cap Altcoins → mid/small-cap, rather than full dispersion. 2. Divergent performance across sectors BTC / ETH: Institutional capital is most clear, ETH is relatively strengthening compared to BTC, ETH/BTC is an important indicator to judge Altseason. Large-cap Altcoins: Large public chains like SOL are beginning to attract risk capital attention, but volume support is needed to confirm the trend. Mid/Small-cap: More elastic but with higher liquidity risk, currently more like an early stage of capital risk appetite dispersion. Meme: The strongest sentiment and largest volatility, usually the most liquid phase After looking at Bitcoin from multiple angles, my broader view remains unchanged. Short-term strength does not automatically invalidate a larger bearish thesis. A market can rally aggressively, create renewed optimism, and still remain within a larger corrective structure. The historical comparison I’m watching is the 2013–2015 bearish phase. That cycle demonstrated how Bitcoin could produce powerful rallies during a broader correction—rallies strong enough to convince market participants that t$xSKHY SK Hynix got hit along with the sector, but HBM4E samples were delivered a month earlier than Samsung's
Sector pullback, innocent collateral damage. Today the memory sector collectively weakened, with SK Hynix dropping over 3% (already down 5.5% last Friday). Honestly, this round of decline has little to do with Hynix itself; the combination of NVDA earnings week and high US Treasury yields hit the entire AI hardware chain.
HBM4E sample delivery took the lead. On June 18, they delivered 12-layer HBM4E samples (48GB, 16Gbps pin rate, +20% energy efficiency, -17% thermal resistance) to major customers, earlier than industry expectations and directly competing with Samsung's move at the end of May. HBM4 is already in mass production and shipment in Q2, with expansion planned for the second half of the year. Hynix's pace makes it the "front-runner" in the HBM generational race.
Raised $29.4 billion in US stock market listing. On July 10, SKHY was listed on Nasdaq, with a financing scale ranking among the top three IPOs globally, comparable to Saudi Aramco. All funds are invested in capacity: 45.5 trillion KRW for M100 expansion + 11.9 trillion KRW for EUV lithography machine procurement. Along with 40 trillion KRW in cancelable buybacks for shareholder returns, the ammunition and sincerity are top-notch.
How much market share will be lost? Optimists say: the HBM market will exceed 30 billion Gb this year, the cake is growing faster than the rate of share loss, and Hynix's deepest binding with NVDA is currently unbeatable; cautious view: TrendForce predicts Hynix's HBM share will shrink from 59% to 50%Still guessing this wave was driven to the top by retail FOMO? Nearly $2 billion in weekly ETF inflows directly slap the answer in the face.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, marking the strongest single-week record since October 2025, with Bitcoin briefly breaking $78,000 on Friday.
This scale indicates that institutional allocation funds are accelerating their return, with the ETF channel being the core incremental source of this rally, rather than pure short-term speculation.
Somewhat bullish. Continuous ETF accumulation provides solid fundamental support for BTC's mid-term trend, but profit-taking pressure rises simultaneously after rapid price surges.
The key is whether subsequent inflows can continue—if capital remains strong, the correction space is limited; if inflows drop sharply, beware of a high-level pullback. Momentum chasers should control their positions and leverage.
Source: Cointelegraph
#BTC #Crypto100W$BTC sits at $78,734, brushing the "no chase" line right on cue. But the "altcoins can't keep up" read cuts against what's actually on today's board — $SPK, $VIRTUAL, $MORPHO all ripped double digits. My take: this isn't dead breadth, it's selective breadth — quality alts with real usage are moving, dead weight isn't. The caution on chasing majors near resistance still holds. The blanket altcoin warning doesn't, not today.
#ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap #BTCETFInflowsSurge Regarding the idea that some coins are being drained by $BTC and $ETH, this notion does not exist. The market's funds are not a fixed pool, and it's not that if BTC receives an inflow of 100 million, altcoins must lose 100 million. What actually happens is that funds are repriced across different risk levels. When BTC and ETH are strong, it often means overall risk appetite and off-exchange incremental funds are rising. Whether this money continues to spread to altcoins is another matter.
So, many altcoins stagnate after their first surge not because they are being drained by someone, but more accurately, this is sector rotation and a shift in capital preference. At different stages, the market concentrates funds in different directions. When BTC and ETH are strong, funds prefer to cluster in large-cap and highly liquid assets. After this phase ends, profits and risk appetite may then spread to other altcoins or sectors. This also explains why when BTC consolidates at a high level, a certain sector suddenly explodes.
When BTC rises, people say BTC is draining liquidity; when ETH rises, they say ETH is draining liquidity; when Meme coins rise, they say Meme coins are pulling liquidity from altcoins. According to this logic, whoever rises is draining liquidity, so you can always find a scapegoat.
What really happens is sector rotation, with funds flowing to different directions at different stages. Understand? You need to differentiate sectors; it's not like in 2021 when the pool of funds was abundant and everything rose together.
If every time your holdings don't rise, you have to find a "vampire" culprit, it only shows that your understanding of capital rotation is still quite superficial.The most valuable experience in the crypto world isn't about which entry or exit points to choose, but learning to coexist peacefully with your own hands.
I've tried uninstalling and reinstalling trading software over and over, more than a dozen times, only to realize the problem wasn't the software, but myself.
Later, I changed a habit: every time I want to place an order, I first write down the reason and review it the next day.
The next morning, eight out of ten reasons usually seem unnecessary, saving me enough in transaction fees for several barbecue meals.
$BTC I started buying at 48,000, didn't dare to move when it dropped to 30,000, and didn't sell all when it rose back to 50,000, just kept a base position.
Now I don't even look at that base position, just treat it as a blind box for myself ten years from now.
I don't even bother with simulated contracts because I know I can't control my hands, so I simply don't start.
I treat all news as background noise now, like “institutional accumulation” or “regulatory rumors”; hearing them too much is just white noise.
I only trust one old trick: when the market chatter among the vegetable vendors is about stocks, that's when I should be selling some coins.
$ETH I hold the least because each transfer hurts, but whenever the on-chain activity is lively, it feels like the network is still valuable.
I split my replenishment into five parts, adding one part every 10% drop, but at most three times, leaving the rest to watch the show.
If it drops after three replenishments, it means I was wrong; I accept the loss and exit without lingering.
I set stop-loss orders at 10% below cost but leave a small margin in case of a wick that recovers, so I don't lose everything.
The first thing I do after making money is to take out half and convert it into supermarket gift cards to spend for real.
The money you spend is truly yours; the numbers in your account might belong to someone else someday.
$SOL I only observe the position, watching it drop from over two hundred, without acting, because I never understood its moat.
If you don't understand it, don't touch it; this rule has helped me avoid many traps.
Now I fix my daily market-watching time at 8 PM, then turn off the computer and never scroll on my phone again.
The time saved allowed me to read a few leisure books and even learn to steam fish; life is much better than staring at the market.
Actually, there is no secret in the crypto world; the secret is: keep your position light, look at longer cycles, and live a grounded life.
No matter how lively the market is, don't let it stop you from having a solid good night's sleep—that's the real compound interest. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 In these years of playing with virtual currencies, my biggest progress isn't how much money I've made, but that I no longer beat my chest and regret losing money.
I used to rush to recover losses after a small loss, but the more I tried, the more I lost, like a headless fly.
Later, I learned to be smarter. Before every trade, I ask myself: If this money is gone, can I still laugh?
If I can't laugh, I don't buy. This rule has saved me several times.
$BTC I started dollar-cost averaging from fifty thousand, continuing all the way down to twenty-seven thousand without stopping.
Now the average price isn't low, but I don't expect to get rich quickly; I just treat it as saving a hope for the future.
I've only played contracts on the demo account, earning tens of millions of virtual coins, then lost it all—quite thrilling.
But I absolutely won't touch real money because I know even playing demo makes my heart race; real money would definitely be unbearable.
I quit all the news groups, leaving only one silent group where I occasionally watch others argue for fun.
The louder the shouting in the group, the less I dare to act; those slogans sound like pyramid schemes.
$ETH I use as a tool; when gas fees are low, I make a few transfers to get familiar with on-chain operations.
I don't care much about price going up or down because the volume is small; if I lose it all, it's just the cost of a hotpot meal.
I have only one method for averaging down: split into three times, add once every 15% drop, otherwise wait.
While waiting, do whatever you need to do; never watch the price every day—that's too torturous.
I set stop-loss orders very wide but always set them because that's the last safety rope.
When it hits, cut losses, then delete from favorites, never look back to avoid heartache.
When I make money, I first take out half, convert it to physical goods or fixed deposits, and let the rest keep rolling.
The money taken out is used to buy practical things for the family, like a good vacuum cleaner.
$SOL I only keep an observation position because it drops too sharply; I don't dare to hold heavy positions.
But it also reminds me that no matter how strong the track is, control your position size and don't get carried away.
Now I check the market no more than three times a day, each time no more than three minutes, saving time to play games.
I don't mind losing games, and I don't panic when coins drop; my mindset has improved a lot.
Actually, the crypto world doesn't have that many secrets; the secret is to move less, hold light positions, and survive longer.
No matter how good the market is, don't let it interfere with your eating and sleeping—that's the real skill. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Brothers, a landmark event has occurred in the AI industry chain. According to Bloomberg on August 22, Nvidia has notified some of its largest customers that the prices of servers equipped with AI chips will generally increase, with most price hikes exceeding 15%. This price increase will take effect starting with systems shipped early next year, affecting products including complete systems equipped with flagship Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell chips. The specific price increase depends on the GPU generation and memory configuration—some GB300 and Vera Rubin 200 systems are expected to see about a 17% price increase. ODM manufacturers that produce servers for major companies like Microsoft, Google, and Oracle have already issued price adjustment notices to downstream customers. The fundamental reason for the price increase is only one: soaring storage chip costs. Nvidia's AI accelerator performance heavily depends on the accompanying DRAM and HBM capacity. Globally, DRAM/HBM production capacity is almost entirely divided among Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Although these three major manufacturers continue to expand production, the growth rate of capacity still lags far behind the explosive growth in AI infrastructure demand. Even Nvidia can't withstand this, which is the most thought-provoking aspect of this matter. Nvidia's 75% gross margin, TSMC's prioritized production capacity, and an almost monopolized AI software ecosystem— the market assumes Nvidia can easily absorb any cost fluctuations. But this server price increase shows that even Nvidia, at the top of the industry chain, is being constrained by upstream storage components. The higher the HBM configuration of the model, the more significant the cost impact. Storage manufacturers are leveragingThe consolidation of US tech stocks at high levels has prompted South Korean retail investors to take profits and exit, while cross-market funds are accelerating their flow into highly elastic crypto assets. Upbit's single-day trading volume surged 250% to $1.8 billion, with the XRP/KRW trading pair reaching $319 million and the kimchi premium standing at -0.5%. If the pressure from a pullback in the US tech sector persists and US Treasury yields stabilize, this round of incremental Korean won funds will continue to support trading in mainstream tokens. The criteria for invalidating the market trend include severe volatility in US stocks causing liquidity tightening or a significant drop in Upbit's trading volume.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 @交易员刺客 The main theme of this livestream was very clear: he believed that when $BTC hit $80,000, both the upside space and short-term risk were expanding simultaneously, so he chose to position short positions between 79,000 and 80,000. After the livestream ended, OKX's official replay showed a total of 21,570 views. The entire session lasted about 4 hours; he not only talked about direction but also put on the surface adding positions, reducing positions, hedging, and emotional loss of control. Assassin's judgment on the big coin is not "80,000 will definitely fall." He repeatedly reminded that if the price effectively breaks above 80,000, it might continue to reach 82,000; but before it holds steady, he prefers to treat 78,800 to 79,200 as the bottom position area and then look for buying opportunities above 79,500. During the livestream, he gave an increase in position of about 79,558 yuan, and used around 80,400 yuan as a clear reference for failure. These numbers were slightly adjusted during trading, so a more reasonable understanding is a "range-bound plan," rather than rigidly applying a single point in isolation. What really needs to be wary is positioning. He initially repeatedly emphasized to viewers that the minimum position only requires about 1% to 1.5% margin, and even with 100x leverage, the overall exposure should be lowered with a small margin. But as the market approached 80,000, his personal position increased from 10 BTC to 20, later mentioning 50 BTC, and said he would first transfer 500,000 USDT as a margin buffer. He himself admitted he was "overwhelmed" and "too open," and even showed obvious nervousness after holding the position. The price then declined, and the assassin first named the BTC during the livestreamBTC reported at $78,980, consolidating near the daily high, just one step away from the 80,000 round number. It has rebounded nearly 27% over 8 days. Spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of about $2.6 billion last week (BTC products about $1.92 billion + ETH products about $680 million), with institutional investors taking over short covering as the main buying force.
ETH simultaneously rose above 2500 (currently at 2512), with a weekly gain of about 25%, outperforming BTC by approximately 1.5 percentage points. The 2500 level has shifted from resistance to the daily pivot, with support at 2440 and resistance at the previous high of 2530.
Capital structure: Weak dollar (DXY 98.9) + long-term bond yields retreating from highs + expectations of US Treasury balance sheet expansion, three factors resonating to boost non-sovereign asset revaluation; gold also broke 4600, confirming the return of "safe-haven trading."
This week's catalysts:
8/27–29 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting: Powell's debut sets the tone, anti-inflation roadmap > hints of rate cuts
8/27 04:00 Nvidia after-hours earnings: revenue consensus ~ $92 billion, Blackwell shipments and data center guidance will determine AI chain risk appetite
8/29 20:30 US July Core PCE: if 0.1%, rate constraints may ease; if 0.3%, real yield suppression continues. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $BTC $ETH The market rose 24% this week, but OKB only increased by 4%: fundamentals are not bad, so why is it just not moving?
Tonight $OKB is hovering around $110, only up 4% this week, while BTC rose 23.6%. Compared to the beta nature of exchange tokens in the past, this data is frankly failing. On a 30-day scale, however, it’s quite strong, +34.85%, indicating it had risen in the previous wave but lagged behind this round.
The reason for lagging is not complicated. The fuel for this rally was short squeeze + ETF funds; OKB has no US stock ETFs, and derivative short positions are not crowded, so the sentiment transmission to it weakened into a "slow-following rally." On 8/21, it was pulled from 100.9 to 108, then fell back—a typical passive catch-up rise.
But there are three fundamental cards yet to be played. ICE (the parent company of NYSE) strategically invested in OKX and jointly launched compliant crypto futures, opening imagination space for traditional financial channels; after the X Layer upgrade, OKB became the only Gas token, with a fixed supply of 21 million and continuous burning, making its tokenomics the cleanest among exchange tokens; plus the IPO expectation hanging over it. These are not news this week but are slow variables.
The position is very delicate. On this day one year ago (2025/8/22), OKB hit its $256 ATH, now at $110, just halved. The KDJ J value of 104 is severely overbought, $108-110 is a previous dense trading zone with many trapped positions. $100 is the lifeline; if it doesn’t break, it will continue to consolidate. Bitcoin once again became the sole focus of the market, with prices repeatedly confirmed in the $77,000 to $78,000 range, having previously approached $79,500. Ethereum firmly held above $2,400, with these two major assets jointly supporting the market's sentiment baseline. Behind this rebound, continued ETF inflows and short covering formed a synergistic force, but the funds did not truly spread; Bitcoin still acted like a huge magnet, firmly holding onto liquidity in the market. What truly deserves attention is the silence of the altcoin camp. Although names like BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, and SNDK occasionally move, they have consistently lacked sustained buying follow-up, and their candlestick structures have not formed a decent reversal pattern. They seem more like waiting for a signal rather than launching an offensive. Such situations are not uncommon, but each time they occur, it means the market is still dominated by Bitcoin, rather than a true broad rally. From the perspective of capital rotation, the most critical current observation is whether liquidity is willing to spill over. If trading volumes outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum remain unrampant, then this rally can only be defined as a recovery driven by industry leaders, not the start of a counterfeit season. Historically, the start of a counterfeit season often coincides with Bitcoin entering high-level volatility and funds starting to seek more elastic targets, but it is clear that hasn't happened yet. For ordinary participants, this market rhythm is actually a reminder: don't assume everything just because Bitcoin is strongBitcoin has recently experienced a strong rebound, surging rapidly from the 64,000 range to approaching the $80,000 mark, marking the largest weekly gain in the dollar in some time. Many traders who exited at previous lows expressed strong sentiments about this round. Reviewing market public information, this round of rally was roughly driven by the resonance of three major forces: 1️⃣ Changes in U.S. Treasury Liquidity The U.S. Treasury Department expanded its long-term Treasury repurchases, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to fall from 5.34% to 5.19%. Risk-free yields declined, some funds flowed out of the bond market, making risk asset allocation more attractive. 2️⃣ Large-scale short positions forced to close positions Billions of dollars in bearish positions were liquidated in a single week, forming a typical short squeeze. Short positions closing and buying further boosted short-term price increases, amplifying the rebound. 3️⃣ Spot ETF funds returning Spot Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded large weekly net inflows, reaching their highest level since last October, with institutional spot buying providing support. Global debt continues to rise, and Bridgewater Dalio has publicly mentioned Bitcoin as a small-scale diversified asset option, fueling ongoing market discussion about crypto assets. Currently, 80,000 is a critical psychological threshold. The market is divided into two opinions: some are optimistic about further upward expansion; others believe the short-term rise is too fast and there is a possibility of pullback and volatility. 💬 Interaction: At this point, which view do you lean on? A is expected to continue probing upwards, B is too strong and large$DOGE is now $0.0905, up 34% in 7 days, with a market cap of $14 billion, climbing to the tenth spot in crypto market cap.
Looks impressive, but breaking it down reveals old stories. RSI at 85.9 is severely overbought; 24h trading volume is $2 billion, open interest contracts at $1 billion, with leverage positions piled high. More importantly, this rally basically has nothing to do with $DOGE itself—BTC and ETH are up, and meme coins as high Beta tail assets are being pulled along, which is different from Musk’s 2021 pump.
Dogecoin’s fundamentals haven’t changed in ten years: 5 billion new coins minted annually, unlimited supply, inflation rate over 5%. It survives on community culture and celebrity effect, with no smart contracts, no DeFi ecosystem, no institutional narrative. This kind of coin has high bull market elasticity but crashes hardest in bear markets.
I’m not saying DOGE can’t rise, but talking about faith at this level is a bit ridiculous. After a 34% rise in 7 days, those buying in are gambling on "Musk tweeting again"—this isn’t investing, it’s a lottery.
My judgment: there’s still short-term momentum to push higher, but a 20%-30% pullback at any time wouldn’t be surprising. Don’t chase meme coin tail rallies with long-term positions. Talking fundamentals after a surge is mostly just finding excuses for yourself.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $BTC & $ETH: Is history repeating itself?
In 2022, $BTC dropped to 17.7K in June, then saw a strong rebound, but eventually retested the low near 15.8K. $ETH showed a similar pattern at that time.
Fast forward to 2026, $BTC once again rebounded strongly from below 60K, approaching 80K at one point, while $ETH climbed back above 2.4K.
But this time there is a clear difference:
Institutional funds are returning.
Recent inflows into US spot ETFs show Bitcoin had nearly $2 billion in weekly inflows, and Ethereum ETF inflows were close to $700 million.
So the real question to focus on is:
Is this the true cycle bottom, or just another strong technical rebound?
The price structure, ETF fund flows, and market volume in the coming weeks may determine whether this rebound evolves into a new trend.
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit Playing with virtual currency for four years, my biggest insight is not to fight against your own holdings.
You can't hold when it rises, and even less when it falls, ending up working for the exchange.
Later, I came up with a simple trick: set an alarm clock every time I buy, and check back after three months.
Price fluctuations in between don’t matter; as long as the alarm hasn’t gone off, I don’t touch it.
As a result, most of my profits came from those trades locked by the alarm.
I started buying $BTC in batches from 42,000, down to 26,000, with an average cost just over 30,000.
Now that the price has recovered quite a bit, I haven’t sold all, just 30%, keeping the rest locked.
The locking method is simple: transfer to a cold wallet, then hide the mnemonic phrase in a cabinet at my hometown.
Want to sell? You have to go back home first, and the hassle cuts my impulse in half.
I tried futures once, lost 2,000 in five minutes, and blacklisted it ever since.
That 2,000 was like buying a ticket to realize my own limits.
Now I treat news as jokes; things like “whale transfers” or “policy rumors” are all distractions.
Useful info is often hidden in on-chain data on blockchain explorers, but that’s too exhausting.
So I simply don’t look; I only watch one indicator: whether people around are still talking about crypto.
When no one talks, I buy a bit; when everyone talks, I sell a bit—simple and straightforward.
I also have some $ETH, but not much, mainly to experience gas fees and catch upgrade bonuses.
I found watching gas fees is way more interesting than watching candlesticks; at least you can guess if the network is busy.
I always add to my position in three parts, buying one part every 20% drop, never acting before that.
When my bullets are gone, I close the app and never add more capital—that’s my bottom line.
I set stop-loss orders 15% below my purchase price; if hit, I accept the loss and leave.
Once I leave, I never look back, even if it rises tenfold later, it’s none of my business.
The first thing I do with profits is withdraw them, using the money to buy new appliances or a bag for my wife.
Seeing her happy is a hundred times more reassuring than watching floating profits.
I only hold a tiny base of $SOL, purely to observe the ecosystem.
When it dropped from over 200 to single digits, I didn’t add because I didn’t understand it.
Not understanding means no touching—that’s my strictest rule now.
Finally, one sentence: don’t treat the crypto world like a casino; treat it like a piggy bank—once you put money in, don’t always think about breaking it open.
Life goes on as usual, work goes on as usual, crypto prices do whatever they want, but it doesn’t affect what’s for dinner tonight. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Approaching the August 28 unlock, $GRASS shows a continuous decline in contract CVD while both trading volume and open interest expand, and the price remains resilient. This divergence, where active selling pressure increases on the derivatives side but spot buying absorbs it, indicates that bullish and bearish funds are concentrating on turnover. If open interest stays high and contract CVD turns upward, exhaustion of active selling could easily trigger a short squeeze; conversely, if spot selling pressure breaks liquidity on the unlock day, the market will face a pullback risk. If open interest significantly exits in advance, it means the absorbing buyers are retreating, and the subsequent focus will be on the dynamic changes of contract CVD and open interest around the unlock period.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡午间时分，美盘尚未开启，市场却已悄然积蓄着一股力量。比起追涨杀跌，此刻更值得静下心来梳理这轮行情的底层逻辑，等待流动性回归后再做打算。 宏观层面的叙事依然清晰而有力。美联储将长期国债回购规模提升了一倍，直接推动30年期美债收益率从5.34%回落至5.19%。美元的走弱为风险资产打开了一扇窗，而达利欧旗下桥水基金公开表态债务不可持续，进一步强化了货币贬值交易的逻辑。这不是一两天的噪音，而是支撑中期趋势的基石。 资金面的信号同样值得玩味。现货比特币ETF本周净流入16亿美元，其中贝莱德旗下IBIT单只产品便贡献超过5亿。以太坊ETF也不甘示弱，同期净流入6.97亿。值得注意的是，尽管市场对CLARITY法案的通过预期并不高，但SEC与CFTC各自推进监管框架的举动，正让资金从单纯的BTC扩散至更广泛的替代币种，市场结构比前几周更健康了。 具体来看，比特币现报76800美元，上周五曾触及79500，周末小幅回撤至75500，全周涨幅达23%，创下2023年3月以来最佳单周表现。小时级别的底部不断抬高，76300至76600一带是较为扎实的买入支撑区，止损可参考75500下方。上方78400到Recently, after a rebound, the crypto market entered a high-level tug-of-war, with BTC fluctuating narrowly around $75,000–$78,000, while ETH fluctuating widely between $2,380–$2,550. Most people tend to view both with the old perspective of "leaders following the rally," but overlook a core change: in this rally, BTC and ETH have completely mismatched their resilience and explosive momentum—BTC traded strong resistance for slow rallies, while ETH traded high explosive momentum for high volatility in pullbacks. This imbalance in capability is precisely the key to winning the next phase of the market; understanding the mismatch logic is key to finding your own trading rhythm. Let's look at BTC first. It is currently the most resilient stock in the market, but its explosive upward momentum is significantly weaker. Its resistance to declines is reflected in its extreme resilience: after this rebound, the maximum drawdown was only about 4%, and during the weekend market concentrated pullback, BTC fell only 2.4%, almost half of ETH's; Every time the price dipped to the $75,000 mark, it quickly recovered, with intraday drawdowns basically kept below 3%, with panic plunges rare. The core support behind this is the stability of institutional holdings: in the past month, spot BTC ETFs have accumulated net inflows exceeding $3.7 billion, with leading institutional products maintaining steady cash flows, and even during periods of volatility, there have been no significant net outflows; On-chain exchanges see continuous net outflows of BTC, with large players withdrawing coins to cold storage and locking them up, with medium- and long-term holdings basically avoiding short-term trading. However, the upward momentum is insufficient. As the price approaches the $80,000 mark, it repeatedly encounters resistance and fails to break through, each surging to $79,000BTC suddenly surged to the doorstep of $80,000, and this time, it’s not just the shorts that got crushed.
Many people's first reaction to this BTC rebound is: another short squeeze.
But if you only see it as a short squeeze, you might be underestimating this market move.
In late August, BTC quickly rose from just above $60,000, once approaching $80,000. The latest data shows that on August 24, BTC was still trading around $79,000, indicating that after the surge, it didn’t immediately give back all the gains.
More importantly, there’s an interesting combination behind this rise.
US Treasury yields fell, shorts were liquidated en masse, and ETF funds flowed back in simultaneously.
In the past five trading days, the US spot BTC ETF saw continuous net inflows totaling about $1.918 billion; the spot ETH ETF had net inflows of about $697 million during the same period, with these two product types attracting roughly $2.6 billion combined. This is one of the strongest weeks since 2026.
So this time, BTC’s surge wasn’t simply driven by the futures market forcibly pushing the price up.
Looking at the capital flow rhythm, from August 19 to 21, BTC spot ETF daily net inflows were approximately $517 million, $606 million, and $308 million respectively. Consecutive days of large inflows indicate that this rebound is at least no longer just short covering but shows signs of spot capital re-entering the market.
But personally, I think the truly noteworthy point is right here.
After BTC rose to $78,000, $79,000, and even near $80,000, the nature of the market has started to change.
The first half was shorts disbelieving and getting squeezed out.
The second half is bulls starting to believe, even worrying about getting in too late.
Once the market enters this stage, the risk actually increases.
Because the most intense short squeezes are often when chips are most easily exchanged. Earlier, shorts stopped losses by buying in; now, if the price continues to hold high without falling, it will attract new leveraged longs entering.
This is what we really need to watch next.
From a macro perspective, after the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, long-term US Treasury yields fell, easing pressure on risk assets. This is also one of the key catalysts for BTC’s sudden acceleration this time. But note, expanding bond repurchases is not the same as the Fed starting QE; it should not be simply interpreted as "money printing."
So I now tend to interpret this round of gains as a re-pricing after an improvement in the funding environment, rather than a confirmed new bull market.
BTC has pulled back from the previous oversold area, but the $80,000 level will become a new watershed.
If it can consolidate at a high level, digest short-term profits, and ETF funds remain stable, then this rally has a chance to gradually evolve from a "short squeeze rebound" into a trend recovery.
But if the price can’t break $80,000, capital enthusiasm quickly cools, and leveraged longs start to pile up heavily, then just as shorts were squeezed out earlier, longs could be liquidated later.
So going forward, I won’t just focus on whether BTC breaks $80,000.
What really matters is, after reaching this point, will it hold sideways or fall?
If it holds sideways, it means capital is willing to buy at the high level.
If it can’t hold, then this rally might just be a beautiful short squeeze counterattack.
The biggest change for BTC this time isn’t how much it rose.
It’s that the force that had been suppressing it is starting to loosen.
As for whether $80,000 can truly be trampled underfoot, it depends on whether the incoming capital is long-term funds or another batch of leveraged traders chasing highs.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Blow blow blow
I blew it up again
20 ETH has already gained over 1000 U in floating profit
Seeing this news, I knew today was a bit stable
Nearly $1 trillion in the TGA fund pool
Long-term bond buybacks increased from $2 billion per time to at least $4 billion
This sentiment effect is basically like giving the market two small rate cuts
Of course, this is not a real rate cut
Nor is it the Fed directly flooding the market with liquidity
But as long as long-term US Treasury yields are pushed down
Risk assets can catch a breath
Before, the market was guided by negotiation progress
Then every day urging the Fed to help draw the line
The Fed didn’t cooperate
Now the Treasury Department is stepping in to draw it themselves 😂
But I’m still a bit anxious
Because what’s being talked about now is still a possible action
The exact scale and funding method haven’t been fully finalized
If expectations are hyped up and then crushed again
My liquidation price at 2401 can’t hold
——
The total market cap of the entire crypto market has reached $2.77 trillion
Up 3.1% in 24 hours
Trading volume $109 billion
$ETH is indeed leading the rhythm this round
But BTC’s market dominance is still 57.5%
Funds haven’t fully spread into altcoins
ETH is now around $2491
Trading volume $20.25 billion
2500 is the gate right in front
Only after holding above can it have a chance to test 2600
If it falls back to 2440, be cautious of a false breakout
Once 2400 is lost
I can’t stubbornly hold this position anymore
$BEAT is still the most disappointing one
Trading volume $21.42 million
The overall market is rebounding
But it’s still falling against the trend
Showing that unlocking and selling pressure haven’t been fully digested
First see if 0.12 can hold
Reclaim 0.14 before talking about the second wave
$ZEC is really ridiculous
Current price $843
Feels like it’s going to 1000
24-hour trading volume $1.348 billion
Intraday range has stretched to $823 to $885
It’s not weak now
It’s strong enough that I dare not chase
Break 885 then look at 900 and 1000
Break below 820 and watch out for profit-taking at highs running together
OKB is actually moving more comfortably
Up 10.1% in seven days
Trading volume $45.66 million
Trading activity is still increasing
If it doesn’t break below around 110, it remains relatively strong
Next resistance at 120
I still prefer to wait for a pullback to slowly buy spot
At least I don’t have to stay up at night watching the liquidation price and lose sleep
I’ll hold this position for now
But if 2500 doesn’t hold, I’ll take some profit
The Treasury Department really added fuel to the market this time
But it’s just helping to suppress long-term rates
It can’t really be treated as unlimited liquidity injection
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Forwarded:
Something very strange is happening
Bitcoin surged from $64,000 to $79,000.
Now everyone thinks the bull market is back.
However, almost no one understands what triggered this move.
It all started with U.S. Treasury bonds.
The Treasury doubled the maximum size of long-term bond repos:
$2 billion → at least $4 billion per transaction.
Long-term yields instantly dropped.
Then Bitcoin started to rise:
$65,400 → $69,500
An almost instant increase of over $4,000.
Then Trump put cryptocurrency back on the agenda.
Strategic Bitcoin reserves began to be discussed again.
Bitcoin continued to rise:
$69,500 → $79,000
By then, the short squeeze had taken care of the rest.
Leveraged short positions were being eliminated.
Forced buying pushed BTC even higher.
$4 billion was liquidated in just 48 hours.
So the chain reaction is simple:
Treasury expands repo size
↓
Yields drop
↓
Trump rekindles hope for crypto
↓
Bitcoin rises
↓
Short positions liquidated
↓ Forced buying pushes BTC to $79,000
But everyone overlooked this:
This is not quantitative easing.
The Fed has not restarted the money printer.
And while everyone is celebrating the rise, the Fed is moving in the opposite direction.
The latest FOMC minutes show that a rate hike in September is still under discussion.
This is not the clean macro environment I expected for the start of a Bitcoin bull market.
And we've seen this trap before.
August 2022:
Bitcoin suddenly rose.
Everyone thought the bear market was over.
Then the bull trap failed, and BTC crashed again.
Same year.
Same excitement.
Same belief that the bottom had been reached.
And the macroeconomic situation is worse now.
War risks remain unresolved. Oil prices remain high.
The energy shock is not over.
Now there is one level more important than anything else:
$83,000-$85,000.
Reaching this level means nothing.
The key is to hold this level.
If Bitcoin reaches $83,000-$85,000 and is rejected, the bull trap remains.
If it breaks through this level and truly holds, the pattern will change. Bitcoin Hits Largest Weekly Gain in Three Years: Weekly Surge of 23% Reaches 79,000, How Will Spot Take Over After Short Squeeze?
Bitcoin recorded a 23% weekly surge last week, marking the largest weekly gain in over three years. Intraday, it touched a high of $79,000, making a push toward the historic $80,000 level.
This pulse-like rally is driven by two hardcore forces: first, the US spot ETF saw a massive net inflow of $1.92 billion in a single week, combined with macro liquidity injected by the US Treasury’s expanded long-term bond repurchase (Stealth QE); second, billions of dollars in shorts in the derivatives market faced a cascade of liquidations. A key micro signal is that open interest (OI) actually declined during the sharp rise, indicating the current rally is mainly driven by real spot buying and short covering, rather than fragile high-leverage long stacking.
Around $78,000, the market’s short-term floating profit has reached 75%, with short-term profit-taking and RSI’s phase of overbought conditions triggering intense high-level battles. Since leveraged counterparties have been deeply cleared out, whether the $80,000 level can hold depends entirely on the sustained net inflows from institutional ETFs and the willingness of spot CVD to actively absorb. The market has officially entered a right-side strength test phase.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Simply put, the ideal scenario in my mind is a mild PCE with the market staying calm or even a false breakout.
Then, no matter how much Nvidia's earnings beat expectations, it's already the last hurrah; this theme is old, and it's really hard to rise after all the buying.
After the earnings are released, they will find any angle to trigger a sell-off (waiting for some agreements at the China-US summit at the end of September before rising again).
Finally, on Friday, Powell will initiate a decisive move, which will lead to another wave of deflation and deleveraging.
If they want to be more aggressive, they will start releasing hawkish data from the PCE to raise rate hike expectations.
Then from September, the various non-farm payrolls and CPI data will continue to raise rate hike expectations, pushing the probability from the current 30% to 70% before the mid-September FOMC. By then, whether they hike rates or not won't matter; the market will have already completed price discovery during the rise in rate hike expectations.BTC has stagnated, breaking the previous high with divergence, it's time for a correction
But it just won't fall
I took a look
Brother Maji is trading every minute
I feel like Maji is controlling the market with contracts
I've seen this situation before
Wait until he sleeps and then directly snipe him
Precision blast!
Pin spike!
He currently holds 1140 BTC positions
BTC liquidation price 73200
ETH liquidation price 2135
HYPE liquidation price 48.6
Manage it yourself Currently, $GRASS shows a divergence where trading volume and open interest are rising simultaneously, but the contract CVD continues to trend downward. With the token unlock approaching on August 28, bearish selling pressure has been actively absorbed by spot and buy orders, leading to a critical juncture in the battle between bulls and bears.
From the perspective of derivatives and capital flows, the declining contract CVD indicates continuous active sell orders being released, but as volume and open interest expand, the price refuses to fall accordingly. This chip turnover state reflects that off-exchange funds are absorbing the bearish selling pressure.
The core factor driving the current market is primarily the psychological game around the unlock date, followed by the marginal strength of hedging short positions. Some token holders about to unlock choose to open short positions in the derivatives market in advance to hedge risks, concentrating selling pressure on the contract side.
The bullish scenario is based on the exhaustion of short liquidity. If derivatives open interest remains high and contract CVD stops declining and turns upward, active selling will fail to push prices down, triggering short liquidations and driving a short squeeze rally.
The bearish scenario depends on the intensity of concentrated selling on the unlock day. If large-scale dumping emerges on the spot side after the August 28 unlock, accompanied by a rapid plunge in contract CVD and a sharp drop in open interest, the current absorbing funds will be overwhelmed, causing a swift price pullback.
If the price breaks the preset stop-loss level or open interest significantly decreases before the price rises, it indicates that the buying funds absorbing selling pressure have withdrawn, and the short squeeze logic fails.
In the next 7 days, it is crucial to monitor whether contract CVD stops falling and rebounds, as well as changes in open interest and spot flows around August 28.
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